Tweet
Total Notes - Week 12
November 14, 2014
Week 11 Recap
Bettors watched the pendulum swing back in the totals market last weekend as the ‘over’ went 27-22.
We only have four weeks remaining and based on the opening numbers, you can start to see the totals dip. I would highly recommend keeping a much closer eye on the weather report as you handicap.
Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
It’s been rare to see Louisville and Wake Forest go ‘over’ this season but that was the case last weekend. Despite having totals in the forties, the Cardinals and Demon Deacons helped the ACC produce a 3-2 record to the ‘over’ last weekend.
The ‘under’ produced a 3-1 record in the Big 12 last Saturday and it could’ve been 4-0 if Kansas State didn’t score a late touchdown against TCU.
Looking below, you can see that the ‘over’ in Ohio State and ‘under’ in Northwestern have been the best total investments this season. Including those results, the Big Ten watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 in Week 11.
There were plenty of points in the Pac-12 last weekend, as seven schools scored 30-plus points and three had 40 or more. The ‘over’ went 4-1 and the outcomes had clear-cut results.
In the four SEC matchups that featured FBS schools, the ‘over’ went 3-1. Bettors who had the ‘under’ (46) in Alabama-LSU were sweating a little bit as the game went to overtime. The Crimson Tide captured a 20-13 win and fortunately for them, the Tigers couldn’t answer in the extra session.
Totals to Watch
Over 8-1
Ohio State: The Buckeyes visit Minnesota
Georgia: The Tigers visit Auburn
Under 9-0
San Diego State: The Aztecs visit Boise State
Under 7-1-1
Northwestern: The Wildcats visit Notre Dame
James Manos (55%) continues to produce college winners on VegasInsider.com!
Head-to-Head
Even though you’ll see a few non-conference matchups sprinkle in at the end of the regular season, the majority of matchups are conference affairs and those games allow us to handicap past encounters between opponents.
Is it necessary?
We asked that question to VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos.
He explained, “Using head-to-head meetings and matchup histories can be useful but you do have to be careful as personnel and talent levels change from year to year.”
“For example, Mississippi State and Alabama have seen the UNDER go 6-0-1 in their last 7 meetings but this is likely not the year to wager on that streak continuing. That seven-year stretch of UNDERS has been based on Alabama dominance as the Tide have simply overwhelmed the less talented Bulldogs……that won't be the case this year. Over the last five years the Tide have featured defenses loaded with NFL caliber talent and they've held the Bulldogs to 3, 10, 7, 7, and 7 points. Also, Mississippi State head coaches have recognized the talent disparity and played slow, run oriented games in an attempt to keep the game competitive, that won't be the case this year either. While this year's Alabama defense has put up solid numbers, the "eye test" tells me they are not as talented as year's past and I think the Bulldogs have their best opportunity offensively since Saban's tenure started. Mississippi State scored 34 at LSU earlier this year and they have the dynamic QB in Prescott to keep this game competitive. Alabama's offense has opened up under new OC Kiffin and the Bulldogs defense can be had especially on the road. I think this is the year this streak ends as the winner will need 33+ points.”
It appears that the oddsmakers and Manos are on the same page as the total for this week’s game opened at 52 and has jumped to 54 ½ as of Friday evening.
Last year’s total closed at 53 ½ and Alabama won 20-7 on the road. Prior to that game, the highest closing number this series had seen was 55 in 2003.
Alabama has seen the ‘under’ go 5-4 this season while Mississippi State has barely leaned to the ‘over’ (5-4).
Along with the above contest, there are other matchups of highly-ranked teams on tap in Week 12 with pending total streaks.
Florida State at Miami, Florida: This series has been very streak. The ‘under’ is currently on a 3-0 run but that was proceeded with a 4-0 push to the ‘over.’ Prior to those seven results, the ‘under’ was 6-0 from 2002-2006. This game opened 61 ½ and has moved to 63.
Nebraska at Wisconsin: Not a large sample size between these Big Ten schools but they have met three times since Nebraska joined the conference. In those games, the ‘over’ has gone 3-0 with totals ranging from 50 ½ to 55 ½. For Saturday’s battle, the line opened 55 ½ and has been pushed up to57. Wisconsin’s defense has been very stout this season and appears to be getting better, allowing 23 combined in their last three games.
Line Moves
This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.
1) Correct Sharp Movement – Pittsburgh/North Carolina Under
2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Nebraska/Wisconsin Over
3) Public Movement – Auburn/Georgia Over
4) Market Manipulation – Missouri/Texas A&M Under
Listed below are all of the Week 12 total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday.
WEEK 12 MOVES
Rotation Open Current
Ohio State at Minnesota 59.5 54.5
Pittsburgh at North Carolin 69 64
Georgia Southern at Navy 65.5 62
Middle Tenn State at FIU 53 48.5
Utah at Stanford 46.5 42.5
Missouri at Texas A&M 58 55
North Texas at UTEP 58.5 53
November 14, 2014
Week 11 Recap
Bettors watched the pendulum swing back in the totals market last weekend as the ‘over’ went 27-22.
We only have four weeks remaining and based on the opening numbers, you can start to see the totals dip. I would highly recommend keeping a much closer eye on the weather report as you handicap.
Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
It’s been rare to see Louisville and Wake Forest go ‘over’ this season but that was the case last weekend. Despite having totals in the forties, the Cardinals and Demon Deacons helped the ACC produce a 3-2 record to the ‘over’ last weekend.
The ‘under’ produced a 3-1 record in the Big 12 last Saturday and it could’ve been 4-0 if Kansas State didn’t score a late touchdown against TCU.
Looking below, you can see that the ‘over’ in Ohio State and ‘under’ in Northwestern have been the best total investments this season. Including those results, the Big Ten watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 in Week 11.
There were plenty of points in the Pac-12 last weekend, as seven schools scored 30-plus points and three had 40 or more. The ‘over’ went 4-1 and the outcomes had clear-cut results.
In the four SEC matchups that featured FBS schools, the ‘over’ went 3-1. Bettors who had the ‘under’ (46) in Alabama-LSU were sweating a little bit as the game went to overtime. The Crimson Tide captured a 20-13 win and fortunately for them, the Tigers couldn’t answer in the extra session.
Totals to Watch
Over 8-1
Ohio State: The Buckeyes visit Minnesota
Georgia: The Tigers visit Auburn
Under 9-0
San Diego State: The Aztecs visit Boise State
Under 7-1-1
Northwestern: The Wildcats visit Notre Dame
James Manos (55%) continues to produce college winners on VegasInsider.com!
Head-to-Head
Even though you’ll see a few non-conference matchups sprinkle in at the end of the regular season, the majority of matchups are conference affairs and those games allow us to handicap past encounters between opponents.
Is it necessary?
We asked that question to VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos.
He explained, “Using head-to-head meetings and matchup histories can be useful but you do have to be careful as personnel and talent levels change from year to year.”
“For example, Mississippi State and Alabama have seen the UNDER go 6-0-1 in their last 7 meetings but this is likely not the year to wager on that streak continuing. That seven-year stretch of UNDERS has been based on Alabama dominance as the Tide have simply overwhelmed the less talented Bulldogs……that won't be the case this year. Over the last five years the Tide have featured defenses loaded with NFL caliber talent and they've held the Bulldogs to 3, 10, 7, 7, and 7 points. Also, Mississippi State head coaches have recognized the talent disparity and played slow, run oriented games in an attempt to keep the game competitive, that won't be the case this year either. While this year's Alabama defense has put up solid numbers, the "eye test" tells me they are not as talented as year's past and I think the Bulldogs have their best opportunity offensively since Saban's tenure started. Mississippi State scored 34 at LSU earlier this year and they have the dynamic QB in Prescott to keep this game competitive. Alabama's offense has opened up under new OC Kiffin and the Bulldogs defense can be had especially on the road. I think this is the year this streak ends as the winner will need 33+ points.”
It appears that the oddsmakers and Manos are on the same page as the total for this week’s game opened at 52 and has jumped to 54 ½ as of Friday evening.
Last year’s total closed at 53 ½ and Alabama won 20-7 on the road. Prior to that game, the highest closing number this series had seen was 55 in 2003.
Alabama has seen the ‘under’ go 5-4 this season while Mississippi State has barely leaned to the ‘over’ (5-4).
Along with the above contest, there are other matchups of highly-ranked teams on tap in Week 12 with pending total streaks.
Florida State at Miami, Florida: This series has been very streak. The ‘under’ is currently on a 3-0 run but that was proceeded with a 4-0 push to the ‘over.’ Prior to those seven results, the ‘under’ was 6-0 from 2002-2006. This game opened 61 ½ and has moved to 63.
Nebraska at Wisconsin: Not a large sample size between these Big Ten schools but they have met three times since Nebraska joined the conference. In those games, the ‘over’ has gone 3-0 with totals ranging from 50 ½ to 55 ½. For Saturday’s battle, the line opened 55 ½ and has been pushed up to57. Wisconsin’s defense has been very stout this season and appears to be getting better, allowing 23 combined in their last three games.
Line Moves
This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.
1) Correct Sharp Movement – Pittsburgh/North Carolina Under
2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Nebraska/Wisconsin Over
3) Public Movement – Auburn/Georgia Over
4) Market Manipulation – Missouri/Texas A&M Under
Listed below are all of the Week 12 total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday.
WEEK 12 MOVES
Rotation Open Current
Ohio State at Minnesota 59.5 54.5
Pittsburgh at North Carolin 69 64
Georgia Southern at Navy 65.5 62
Middle Tenn State at FIU 53 48.5
Utah at Stanford 46.5 42.5
Missouri at Texas A&M 58 55
North Texas at UTEP 58.5 53
Comment