The Bum's October College Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, October 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arkansas State - 8:00 PM ET UL Lafayette +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY

UL Lafayette - Over 57.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD: RATED PLAYS

21- 14 - 2........................*****

13 - 16..............................DOUBLE PLAY

13 - 18...............................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 13........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/21/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/18/14 16-*30-*1 34.78% -*8500 Detail

10/17/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail

10/16/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

10/14/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/11/14 16-*30-*1 34.78% -*8500 Detail

10/10/14 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

10/09/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 74-*99-*4 42.77% -*17450

[StarDust Bum]

Bad Company - Week 9

October 21, 2014


The bad teams in college football continue to stick out like a sore thumb heading towards the end of October. Several of these squads are listed as double-digit underdogs in conference action this week, trying to hang around and cover the spread. We’ll take a look at five of these clubs, including Colorado, who hopes to avoid another blowout against a Los Angeles school.

Colorado (+13) vs. UCLA – 2:00 PM EST

The Buffaloes were blitzed out of the gate by USC last Saturday, allowing 28 first quarter points in a 56-28 blowout as 20-point underdogs. How bad was Colorado’s defense? Trojans’ quarterback Cody Kessler burned the Buffs for seven touchdown passes, including five in the first half. CU has yielded 36 points or more in five of the past six games, while failing to cover its last two contests after three straight ATS wins.

The Bruins dodged a third straight loss in Saturday’s 36-34 victory at California, but didn’t cash as 6 ½-point favorites. UCLA owns a dreadful 1-6 ATS record this season, but has won all four of its road contests at Virginia, Texas, Arizona State, and Cal. The Bruins have cruised past the Buffaloes in all three meetings since Colorado joined the Pac-12 in 2011, but CU covered as 30-point underdogs at the Rose Bowl last season in a 45-23 defeat.

Georgia State (+16 ½) vs. Georgia Southern – 2:00 PM EST

This Sun Belt battle is an obvious mismatch, with Georgia Southern looking for its fifth consecutive win, facing a Georgia State team that has dropped six straight games. However, the Panthers have turned into a solid money-maker, covering in four of the past five contests, including in last week’s 30-27 defeat at South Alabama as 19 ½-point underdogs. Georgia State owns an incredible 11-3 ATS record as a ‘dog since the start of last season, but have lost 10 of its past 11 home contests.

Georgia Southern is the top rushing team in the country, averaging 372 yards a game on the ground, facing a Georgia State squad that allows 241 rushing yards a contest. The Eagles have covered six of seven games this season, as the lone ATS defeat came in a 36-28 win at New Mexico State as 17 ½-point road favorites.

Kent (+7) at Miami, Ohio – 2:30 PM EST

These MAC rivals have combined for a 2-13 record out of the gate, as the Redhawks are favored in conference play for the second time since 2012. This season, Miami has failed to cover in the favorite role against Eastern Kentucky and UMass, while its only victory came over the Minutemen, 42-41 as 5 ½-point ‘chalk.’ All five ATS wins for Miami came as a double-digit underdog, but the Redhawks have compiled a 3-9-1 ATS record since 2012 either in the single-digit ‘dog role or as a favorite.

Kent put together its best performance of the season last Saturday, stunning Army as a three-point home underdog, 39-17 for its first win following an 0-6 start. The Golden Flashes have covered just two of seven games this season, while scoring only 27 points in three road losses at Ohio State, Virginia, and Northern Illinois. Kent has won each of the past two meetings with Miami, including a 24-6 drubbing of the Redhawks as 19 ½-point road favorites last season.

Wake Forest (+12 ½) vs. Boston College – 3:30 PM EST

The Demon Deacons are by far the worst team in the ACC, losing their three conference games by a combined 93-20 to Louisville, Florida State, and Syracuse. The Orange scored the final 30 points in a 30-7 rout at Wake Forest last Saturday, but Syracuse was aided by a pair of defensive touchdowns. Wake has dropped seven straight conference contests since last season, while posting an 0-3 SU/ATS mark at home in this stretch.

Boston College barely covered as 5 ½-point home underdogs in a 17-13 loss to Clemson, the third ATS victory for the Eagles in the ‘dog situation this season. The Eagles need to avoid a letdown this week, with games against Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Florida State on the horizon, as BC is just 2-7 in its past nine ACC road contests. Boston College dominated Wake Forest last season, 24-10 as three-point home favorites, as the Eagles are 1-3 ATS in its past four opportunities as a road favorite.

Vanderbilt (+20 ½) at Missouri – 4:00 PM EST

The Tigers bounced back in a big way after getting shut out at home by Georgia, as Mizzou waxed Florida at the Swamp, 41-13, in spite of racking up just 119 yards. It helps that the Tigers scored four non-offensive touchdowns, including a kickoff return and a punt return for a score. Missouri’s schedule is extremely manageable the rest of the way for a shot to go to the SEC championship, avoiding Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State in the final five games. The Tigers are 3-0 SU/ATS since joining the SEC as a double-digit home favorite in conference play.

Vanderbilt is fresh off the bye week after edging FCS school Charleston Southern, 21-20 as 20-point home favorites. The Commodores have covered their last three opportunities as an underdog in losses to Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina, but Vandy has scored 17 points or less in three of four SEC games. Since 2012, the Commodores have compiled a solid 7-2 ATS record as a road ‘dog in conference play, while winning at Missouri in 2012 as a seven-point ‘dog, 19-15.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 9

October 21, 2014


Thursday, October 23

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


UCONN at EAST CAROLINA...
Diaco UConn debut not exactly going to plan, Huskies 1-5 SU and 0-6 vs. line. Huskies 3-11 last 14 as road dog (0-2 TY). ECU on 8-3 spread uptick (though 0-2 L 2), 5-6 as DD chalk since LY.

ECU, based on UConn negatives.


MIAMI-FLA. at VIRGINIA TECH...
Beamer 3-4 vs. line TY, 15-31-1 last 47 vs. line.

Slight to VPI, based on series trends.



Friday, October 24

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA...
The road team is 6-0 vs. line in USA games this season.

Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI...
USF 6-1 vs. line as visitor for Taggart, whose WKU & Bull teams are 17-1 vs. spread last 18 as a visitor! Tuberville 2-6 vs. spread last 8 on board.

USF, based on team trends.


BYU at BOISE STATE...
Bronco Mendenhall 8-3 last 11 as dog (0-1 TY). Cougs have covered last two years vs. Boise, though BYU no covers last five in 2014.

Slight to BYU, based on series trends.


OREGON at CAL (at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara)...
Ducks have not lost SU to Cal since 2008 and have covered 4 of last 5 meetings.

Slight to Oregon, based on series trends.



Saturday, October 25

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


SOUTH CAROLINA at AUBURN...
Malzahn 1-3 vs. line last four TY but still 14-3 vs. spread last 17 on board. Tigers 8-1 vs. points last nine at Jordan-Hare. Spurrier no covers last three in series (two in 2010). Spurrier 5-3 last 8 as dog but only 1-5 vs. line first six overall in 2014.

Auburn, based on team trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN...
NIU 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line last six vs. EMU. Huskies, however, no covers last four TY and just 3-7 last ten on board. But NIU is 10-2 as visiting chalk since 2012and EMU just 10-19 last 29 as Ypsilanti dog (1-0 TY).

NIU, based on series trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY...
Dan Mullen is 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line against Kentucky. MSU now on 9-1 spread uptick last 10 since late 2013 and has covered last five away from Starkville.

MSU, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at CLEMSON...
Dabo 5-1 vs. line last six at home, but Orange 8-4 last 12 vs. line away from home.

Slight to Cuse, based on team trends.


MINNESOTA at ILLINOIS...
Gophers 10-4 vs. spread last 14 on board since mid 2013. Kill 5-2 vs. line last seven as visitor (1-0 as visiting chalk since LY). Beckman 1-4 vs. line last five TY.

Minnesota, based on team trends.


AKRON at BALL STATE...
Cards are 3-1 vs. line as road dog but here in Muncie, Lembo is 0-3 vs. line this season.

Akron, based on recent trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...
CMU covers last 4 as road chalk. UB has covered last five as MAC host.

Slight to CMU, based on team trends.


OHIO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...
While WMU soars to 7-0 spread mark out of gate this season, Solich fades and only 1-5 vs. points last six in 2014. Solich 3-10 vs. line last 13 since late 2013.

WMU, based on recent trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at WAKE FOREST...
Eagles have covered first two away from home TY.

BC, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at UCF...
Matt Rhule spotless 6-1 as road dog since LY at Temple. Ole 7-2 vs. line on road since LY.

Temple, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA...
UNC has won and covered last four in series and now has covered last 2 TY. Cavs 4-9-1 last 14 as Charlottesville chalk.

UNC, based on series trends.


GEORGIA TECH at PITTSBURGH...
Jackets 2-1 vs. line on road TY and won and covered vs. Pitt LY in Atlanta.

Slight to GT, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at WISCONSIN...
Badgers no covers last three and only 1-4 vs. line last five TY. Also 1-4 vs. line last five at Camp Randall. Terps have won last 5 SU as visitor (3-0 TY).

Maryland, based on recent trends.


VANDERBILT at MISSOURI...
Dores actually covered two inflated numbers in only road games and have covered five straight away from Nashville. Mizzou only 1-2 laying DD TY.

Slight to Vandy, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at NAVY...
Mids no covers last four TY (including 51-14 win as -38 vs. VMI) but were 3-1 as home chalk LY. SJSU 4-6 vs. number last ten since late LY.

Slight to Navy, based on team trends.


UNLV at UTAH STATE...
Rebs 1-3 vs. line away TY, now 7-21-1 vs. spread on road for Hauck since 2010 (though 7-6 last 13). After four straight Ls to open season, Utags have covered last 3 and are 9-4 last 13 as Logan chalk (1-2 TY, but close non-cover vs. Wake).

Utah State, based on team trends.


UMASS at TOLEDO...
Mass has spread Ws last four and six of seven. Meanwhile, Rockets 1-5 vs. spread last six in 2014, though they are 6-2 as Glass Bowl chalk since LY.

UMass, based on recent trends.


UCLA at COLORADO...
Bruins 1-6 vs. line TY, CU 4-1 vs. mark last five TY. Buffs 7-2 vs. line in Boulder since Mike M arrived LY. Mike Mac also 8-2 last 10 as home dog with Jose and CU (3-2 with Buffs).

CU, based on recent trends.


RUTGERS at NEBRASKA...
Rutgers 11-5 last 15 as dog away from Piscataway, Flood 8-4 in role. 'Gers also 14-6 last 19 as dog overall since 2011 (3-0 TY). Bo Pelini covers last 5 TY and 6-1 in 2014, also 3-1 as home chalk TY after 3-4 mark in role in 2013.

Slight to Nebraska, based on recent Pelini marks.


KENT STATE at MIAMI-OHIO...
Miami-O no covers as chalk since 2011, no surprise with 1-23 SU mark last 24. But Chuck Martin 5-3 vs. line in RedHawk debut. KS 2-5 vs. line TY.

Slight to Miami, based on recent Kent negatives.


UAB at ARKANSAS...
Bielema 2-0 as chalk TY and 3-0 vs. line at Fayetteville, also 5-1 vs. line last 6 TY.

Slight to Arkansas, based on recent trends.


TEXAS TECH at TCU...
Red Raiders 2-9 vs. line last 11 reg.-season games. Though Tech has won and covered last two years vs. Frogs. TCU 6-0 vs. line this season, including 3-0 at Fort Worth.

TCU, based on recent trends.


MEMPHIS at SMU...
Pony-os 0-6 SU and 1-5 vs. line in disastrous 2014, never closer than 21. Tigers 7-4 last 11 vs. spread since LY and all SU wins by 21 or more this season.

Memphis, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at STANFORD...
Tree 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line last four meetings. Beavers no wins or covers last three on Farm. Riley also 0-3 vs. line away TY, though he is 19-7 as visiting dog since 2008.

Slight to Stanford, based on series trends.


ALABAMA at TENNESSEE...
Vols haven't beaten Tide SU since Mike Shula days of 2006. Saban has owned last four years with big wins and covers over Dooley & Butch. Nick no covers last six away from Tuscaloosa (0-3 TY) and just 1-6 last 7 vs. spread since late 2013.

Slight to Bama, based on series trends.


MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...
Spartans have now won and covered 6 straight and 6-0-1 last seven vs. line in series vs. Wolverines. MSU 4-1 as DD chalk TY and 6-3 vs. line last 9 at home.

MSU, based on series trends.


WYOMING at COLORADO STATE...
CSU now 18-6 vs. line last 24 on board. Bohl's Wyo no covers last four TY.

CSU, based on team trends.


OLE MISS at LSU...
Hugh Freeze now 33-11-1 vs. line since 2011 at Ark State & Ole Miss and 7-0 with Rebs this season. LSU 2-0 as rare home dog since 2010 and 5-2 in dog role since 2011.

Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze marks.


ARIZONA at WASHINGTON STATE...
Cougs won +11 at Tucson LY. Leach 8-3 last 11 as dog. Despite lots of hype, Cats only 3-3 vs. line in 2014 and 2-2 last 4 as visiting chalk.

Slight to WSU, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN CAL at UTAH...
Home team has covered all three meetings since Utes entered Pac in 2011. Utes 5-1 SU and vs. line after win over OSU. Whittingham 4-1 as home dog since 2012. Also 9-5 vs. line last 14 at Salt Lake City.

Utah, based on team and series home trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE...
Panthers 12-2 last 14 as DD dog.

Ga State, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at RICE...
Revenge for Rice after loss at Denton LY. UNT not the same in 2014 with 2-5 spread mark and 0-3 away. Rice has covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 TY, and Bailiff 18-9 last 27 on board.

Rice, based on team trends.


LA TECH at SOUTHERN MISS...
Tech has covered last three vs. USM, which is 2-9-1 vs. number last 12 at home.

LT, based on team and series trends.


UTEP at UTSA...
UTEP now 2-8 vs. spread on road since 2013 (1-2 TY) for Kugler.

Slight to UTSA, based on UTEP road woes.


FAU at MARSHALL...
Herd is 8-0-1 vs. line at home since LY and 5-0-1 vs. line last six. Owls 12-4 last 16 as road dog.

Marshall, based on home marks.


TEXAS STATE at ULM...
Warhawks only 1-4-1 vs. line TY. ULM 2-6 vs. spread last 8 as host. Road team 5-1 vs. line in Franchione games TY.

Texas State, based on team trends.


ODU at WKU...
WKU only one cover since BGSU opener and 1-4 as home chalk since LY (0-1 TY).

Slight to ODU, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at OKLAHOMA STATE...
Revenge for Gundy after 30-21 upset loss at Holgorsen LY. Gundy 5-2 last seven in revenge. OSU 15-7-1 vs. line last 22 at Stillwater.

OSU, based on team trends.


TEXAS at KANSAS STATE...
Charlie Strong 2-2 as dog TY after 8-1 mark in role last three seasons at 'Ville. Bill Snyder has covered last six in revenge. KSU has covered last four TY and is 13-6 vs. spread last 19 at home.

K-State, based on Bill Snyder trends.


OHIO STATE at PENN STATE...
Bucks have won and covered last two in series (with Urban Meyer) and 4 of last 5 vs. Nittany. OSU 5-1 vs. line TY with four big wins and covers in row. James Franklin 12-7 as dog since 2011 with Vandy and Nittany (1-1 TY).

Slight to OSU, based on team and series trends.


ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON...
Todd Graham just 2-6 as dog since 2012 (1-1 TY). But Sun Devils have won and covered last seven vs. Huskies dating to 2002

ASU, based on series trends.


NEVADA at HAWAII...
Chow 4-0 vs. line at home TY (home team is 7-0 in Hawaii games vs. spread in 2014). But Pack has won last 3 SU vs. UH and has covered 4 of last 5 away from Reno.

Slight to Nevada, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 9

Tues, Oct. 21

Arkansas State at UL - Lafayette, 8:00 ET
Arkansas St: 13-3 ATS after playing a conference game
UL - Lafayette: 8-21 ATS in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers


Thurs, Oct. 23

Connecticut at East Carolina, 7:00 ET
Connecticut: 9-1 ATS after scoring 9 points or less last game
E Carolina: 8-2 OVER after playing 2 straight conference games

Miami Florida at Virginia Tech, 8:00 ET
Miami: 8-1 ATS after a win by 17 or more points
Virginia Tech: 9-1 ATS as a home underdog
College Football Betting Trends - Fri, Oct. 24

Troy at South Alabama, 7:30 ET
Troy: 6-0 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game
S Alabama: 1-6 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

South Florida at Cincinnati, 7:00 ET
S Florida: 11-2 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half
Cincinnati: 12-2 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better

BYU at Boise State, 9:00 ET
BYU: 19-35 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game
Boise State: 42-25 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

Oregon at California, 10:00 ET
Oregon: 18-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better
California: 10-21 ATS in all games


Sat, Oct. 25

South Carolina at Auburn, 7:30 ET
S Carolina: 1-5 ATS in all lined games
Auburn: 10-2 ATS against conference opponents

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan, 1:00 ET
N Illinois: 22-8 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game
E Michigan: 9-22 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Mississippi State at Kentukcy, 3:30 ET
Mississippi St: 9-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Kentucky: 2-11 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Syracuse at Clemson, 7:00 ET
Syracuse: 30-16 ATS after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game
Clemson: 2-11 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games

Minnesota at Illinois, 12:00 ET
Minnesota: 6-1 UNDER after a 2 game home stand
Illinois: 53-77 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday

Akron at Ball State, 2:00 ET
Akron: 1-5 ATS when playing on a Saturday
Ball State: 1-8 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games

Central Michigan at Buffalo, 3:30 ET
C Michigan: 17-32 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Buffalo: 6-1 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Ohio at Western Michigan, 2:00 ET
Ohio: 0-9 ATS off a win against a conference rival
W Michigan: 6-1 OVER off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog

Boston College at Wake Forest, 3:30 ET
Boston College: 1-9 ATS in road games after playing a conference game
Wake Forest: 2-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 3 straight games

Temple at Central Florida, 5:00 ET
Temple: 36-20 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Central Florida: 2-10 ATS off a home win

North Carolina at Virginia, 12:30 ET
N Carolina: 28-13 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Virginia: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh, 3:30 ET
Georgia Tech: 5-16 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games
Pittsburgh: 20-7 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival

Maryland at Wisconsin, 12:00 ET
Maryland: 24-10 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game
Wisconsin: 28-13 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival

Vanderbilt at Missouri, 4:00 ET
Vanderbilt: 19-6 ATS after a win by 6 or less points
Missouri: 15-6 ATS in all lined games

San Jose State at Navy, 1:00 ET
San Jose St: 9-1 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Navy: 36-55 ATS in home games in non-conference games

UNLV at Utah State, 4:00 ET
UNLV: 18-7 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Utah State: 7-0 ATS off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less

Massachusetts at Toledo, 2:00 ET
Massachusetts: 6-1 OVER as an underdog
Toldeo: 21-8 ATS in home games off a road loss

UCLA at Colorado, 2:00 ET
UCLA: 3-12 ATS in road games after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game
Colorado: 2-10 ATS in weeks 5 through 9

Rutgers at Nebraska, 12:00 ET
Rutgers: 11-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Nebraska: 60-40 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Kent State at Miami Ohio, 2:30 ET
Kent State: 9-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Miami Ohio: 18-34 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

UAB at Arkansas, 12:00 ET
UAB: 1-6 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Arkansas: 0-7 ATS after a 2 game home stand

Texas Tech at TCU, 3:30 ET
Texas Tech: 63-40 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
TCU: 17-6 ATS in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Memphis at SMU, 12:00 ET
Memphis: 28-13 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points
SMU: 18-33 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses

Oregon State at Stanford, 3:30 ET
Oregon St: 28-13 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival
Stanford: 77-54 ATS in the second half of the season

Alabama at Tennessee, 7:30 ET
Alabama: 6-0 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game
Tennessee: 16-30 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9

Michigan at Michigan State, 3:30 ET
Michigan: 18-35 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Michigan State: 23-8 ATS after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game

Wyoming at Colorado St, 7:00 ET
Wyoming: 14-3 ATS in road games after a game where they committed no turnovers
Colorado St: 12-3 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Missisippi at LSU, 7:15 ET
Mississippi: 16-6 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
LSU: 22-40 ATS in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game

Arizona at Washington State, 6:00 ET
Arizona: 14-4 ATS in road games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game
Washington State: 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

USC at Utah, 10:00 ET
USC: 36-19 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs
Utah: 21-9 ATS after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games

Georgia Southern at Georgia State, 2:00 ET
Georgia Southern: 8-1 ATS in all lined games
Georgia St: 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

North Texas at Rice, 12:00 ET
N Texas: 6-23 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers
Rice: 56-23 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Louisiana Tech at Soutern Miss, 3:30 ET
Louisiana Tech: 1-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival
Southern Miss: 10-21 ATS in all lined games

UTEP at UTSA, 7:00 ET
UTEP: 1-8 ATS as a road underdog
UTSA: 6-1 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

FLA Atlantic at Marshall, 3:30 ET
FLA Atlantic: 11-3 ATS as a road underdog
Marshall: 15-5 ATS off a double digit road win

Texas St at LA Monroe, 7:00 ET
Texas St: 1-8 ATS against conference opponents
LA Monroe: 4-13 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Old Dominion at W Kentucky, 4:00 ET
Old Dominion: 1-5 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
W Kentucky: 0-8 ATS in home games against conference opponents

W Virginia at Oklahoma St, 3:30 ET
W Virginia: 2-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Oklahoma St: 76-48 ATS as a favorite

Texas at Kansas St, 12:00 ET
Texas: 0-7 ATS after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers
Kansas St: 77-53 ATS in home games

Ohio St at Penn St, 8:00 ET
Ohio St: 64-40 ATS in road games
Penn St: 4-13 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points

Arizona St at Washington, 10:45 ET
Arizona St: 5-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Washington: 1-5 UNDER after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game

Nevada at Hawaii, 12:00 AM ET
Nevada: 4-12 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Hawaii: 1-5 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 9

October 22, 2014


The Pac-12 has Oregon with hopes of a spot in the four-team playoff at season's end, but it's hard to envision any of the other teams in the league with a prayer, even Arizona, which beat Oregon. It has been a strange season in the Pac-12 so far, as UCLA dropped back-to-back games before barely scratching out a win at Cal last week, effectively taking themselves out of major bowl contention. And Stanford has three losses this season already. If not for Oregon, the Arizona schools, and a surprising run by Utah, it would be a tremendously disappointing season in the conference.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 5-1 2-1 2-4 2-4

Arizona State 5-1 3-1 3-3 3-3

California 4-3 2-3 5-2 4-3

Colorado 2-5 0-4 3-4 4-3

Oregon 6-1 3-1 3-4 3-3-1

Oregon State 4-2 1-2 2-4 2-3-1

Southern California 5-2 4-1 5-2 4-3

Stanford 4-3 2-2 3-4 0-6

UCLA 5-2 2-2 1-6 2-4-1

Utah 5-1 2-1 5-1 2-3-1

Washington 5-2 1-2 3-4 2-5

Washington State 2-5 1-3 3-4 3-4


Oregon at California (Fri. - FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m. ET)

The scoreboad operator at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley is already limbering up, doing finger exercises to get ready for Friday's potential track meet. The last time Oregon QB Marcus Mariota played at Cal he went for a career-high six touchdown passes. The Golden Bears have QB Jared Goff, who has the second-highest QB rating in the conference behind the Heisman Trophy candidate Mariota. The Ducks are favored by 18 points for Friday's late-night battle. They have been strong on the road against the number, going 14-4 ATS in their past 18 road games, and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. For what it's worth, Oregon has failed to cover its past four appearances on Fridays. Cal heads into this one 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall, but just 5-12 ATS in their past 17 against a team with a winning record, and 3-11 ATS in their past 14 at home. In this series, the Ducks are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, but the home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six. The under might be more attractive, cashing in six of the past seven meetings in the series. The under is also 5-0-1 in Oregon's past six on the road, and 3-1-1 in their past five overall. For Cal, the under is 12-3-1 in their past 16 games in the month of October.


UCLA at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)

UCLA heads to Folsom Field in Boulder looking to stay perfect on the road, as they're 4-0 SU away from Pasadena this season. However, the Bruins are just 1-6 ATS in their past seven overall, and a dismal 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games overall in the month of October. Colorado has improved, although it hasn't exactly translated into victories on the field. However, they're keeping games closer these days, going 5-2 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. The road team has cashed in four of the past five meetings in this series.

Oregon State at Stanford (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)

The Cardinal are in a rare spot, as they have three losses and it is still just late October. They find themselves as a two-touchdown favorite against Oregon State, who is 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home record. The Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games, and 25-12-1 ATS in their past 38 conference tilts. However, they are just 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record. In this series, the trends seem to point to Stanford. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in the series, and the Beavers are 0-4 ATS in their past four battles with the Cardinal.

Arizona at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 5:00 p.m.)

In one of those 'too good to be true' lines, the Wildcats are favored by a field goal (or less at some shops) on the Palouse. Perhaps it is because the trends point to Washington State. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and the underdog is 10-2 ATS in the past 12 meetings. Arizona is just 1-4 ATS in their past five overall, with their only cover their outright win at Oregon a few weeks ago as a 21-point underdog. They're 0-6 ATS in their past six road games against a team with a losing home record. However, they are also coming off a bye, and they're 11-5 ATS in their past 16 following a bye week. Washingotn State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven conference games.
Southern California at Utah (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m.)

The Trojans have seized control of first place in the Pac-12 South Division, and they hope to stay their after their game at Rice-Eccles. USC is 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games overall. However, they're just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 road games, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, and 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, while posting a 7-3 ATS mark in their past 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is the trend which looks to be dominant. The under is 8-1-1 in USC's past 10 against a team with a winning record, while Utah is 3-0-1 in the past four overall and 7-1-1 in Utah's past nine against a team with a winning record. The Utes are also 5-2 in their past seven at home.

Arizona State at Washington (ESPN, 10:45 p.m.)

The head-to-head trends in this series jump right off the page. Arizona State has covered its past six trips to Seattle, and the Sun Devils are a whopping 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings against the Huskies. However, Arizona State is just 15-33-3 ATS in their past 51 road games against a team with a winning home record, and 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight games on field turf. For Washington, they have covered 17 of their past 24 home games, although they're just 16-40-2 ATS in their past 58 games in the month of October. The total trends are conflicting, too. The over has been hot for AZ State, going 17-7 in their past 24 road games, and 20-8 in their past 28 against a team with a winning record. The under is 10-1 in Washington's past 11 home games against a team with a winning road record, and 18-7-1 in their past 26 home games, and 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a winning record.

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 9

October 22, 2014


The Atlantic Coast Conference will have its biggest draw taking a rest this week, as unbeaten Florida State takes a break after its thrilling win in a marquee game last week against Notre Dame. Clemson's star is fading, but they're the only ranked ACC team in action this week, facing Syracuse under the lights in Death Valley.

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 4-3 1-2 5-2 2-4-1

Clemson 5-2 4-1 4-3 3-4

Duke 6-1 2-1 4-2-1 1-5

Florida State 7-0 4-0 1-6 3-4

Georgia Tech 5-2 2-2 3-4 4-3

Louisville 6-2 4-2 5-3 1-6-1

Miami (Fla.) 4-3 1-2 3-4 3-4

North Carolina 3-4 1-2 2-5 4-2

North Carolina State 4-4 0-4 4-4 3-4-1

Pittsburgh 4-3 2-1 3-3-1 2-4-1

Syracuse 3-4 1-2 3-4 2-4-1

Virginia 4-3 2-1 5-1-1 3-4

Virginia Tech 4-3 1-2 3-4 2-4

Wake Forest 2-5 0-4 3-4 1-6

Miami (Fla.) at Virginia Tech (Thurs. - ESPN, 8:00p.m. ET)

The Hurricanes hit the road for Blacksburg looking to finally get it right on the road. They're 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four games at home, but 0-3 SU/ATS on the road. Looking at trends, a trip to the mountains of Virginia aren't exactly a cure for their ills. The Hurricanes are 0-4 ATS in their past four road games, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 conference tilts. And Miami is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Blacksburg, and 3-10 ATS in their past 13 meetings overall. The good news for Miami is that Va. Tech is just 1-4 ATS in their past five against a winning team, and 1-5 ATS in their past six home games.

North Carolina at Virginia (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Tar Heels hit the road for Charlottesville looking to turn things around. UNC has allowed 34 or more points in five straight games, 27 or more in all seven outings this season and they're just 2-5 ATS overall. Lately, the over has been the play in games involving the Tar Heels, going 4-1 over the past five. However, the under is 6-2-1 in the past nine meetings in this series. UNC hasn't had a ton of success at Scott Stadium over the years, going just 2-7 ATS in their past nine trips to UVA, although they have covered the past four meetings overall against the Hoos. UVA is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five ACC games, with their lone non-cover coming last week at Duke. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their past six at home, and 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine games overall.

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)

Things were going swimmingly for the Ramblin' Wreck until a couple of weeks ago when they faced Duke at home. They lost their first conference game 31-25 to the Blue Devils, and then were tripped up on the road at North Carolina, 48-43, last week. The Yellow Jackets are just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 against a team with a winning record, and 5-11-1 ATS in their past 17 games overall. In addition, they're 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a winning home record. For Pitt, while they are 1-3-1 ATS in their past five, the Panthers are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five ACC battles, and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record. Better yet, the Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 home games against a team with a winning road mark.

Boston College at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

The Eagles head to Winston-Salem looking to maintain their dominance agaisnt a Demon Deacons team which has been hard-pressed to must any offense. Boston College is 4-1 ATS in their past five overall and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 ACC battles. However, they are also 4-10 ATS in their past 14 road games, and 8-23 ATS in their past 31 against a team with a losing record. However, that's old BC. This season in two road tilts, they are 2-0 SU/ATS. The real trend to be mindful about might be the under, which has cashed in three straight for the Eagles and four straight, and six of seven, for the Deacs. Wake Forest is averaging just 6.7 points per game over the past three.

Syracuse at Clemson (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)

Syracuse hits the road for Death Valley looking to build on last weekend's thrashing of Wake Forest on the road. The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their past five road trips, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road outings against a team with a winning home record. For Clemson, they're 5-1 ATS in their past six home games, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven ACC games. However, all bets are off with backup QB Cole Stoudt under center. The Tigers barely scratched out a 17-13 win at Boston College last week in Stoudt's first start since Sept. 20. The under has hit in three straight for Clemson, and the under is 4-1-1 in the past six for Syracuse.

BYES

Duke, Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina State

[StarDust Bum]

SBPI Rankings - Week 9

October 22, 2014


Similar to the AP Top 25 poll, this week’s installment of the college football SportsBoss Power Index also features plenty of schools from the SEC, seven in total.

The difference in my rankings is that I have Mississippi State sitting in the eighth spot and not first. My top spot goes to Alabama and right behind them is its rival Auburn.

According to my SBPI, which is purely statistically based, the SEC has 13 of 14 schools ranked 43rd or higher, the lone exception being Vanderbilt (124).

Despite losing to West Virginia in Week 8, the SBPI still has Baylor as a legit national contender. However, while my metrics show five Big 12 schools in the Top 25, there are four others listed at 77th or worst and Texas is in the middle of the pack (37th).

Some West Coast users might be upset with me for my omission of Pac-12 schools. I only have two (USC, Stanford) listed in my SBPI Top 25 and most would argue that neither is worthy. For those wondering, I have Oregon ranked 26th. Depth not an issue here with Washington (74th) ranked the lowest among the dozen school.

If you’re looking for a conference that is under the radar, you might want to check out the ACC. I have five schools listed in the SBPI and that doesn’t include Florida State. The Seminoles are ranked 47th and again, that number is based on my statistical models.

Listed below are the Top 25 SBPI rankings through action on Saturday Oct.18 – we will also include the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, ESPN’s Football Power Index & Jeff Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool:

Top 25 Ratings

Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule

Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank

Alabama 2 4 2 4 4 2 2 315.1 1

Auburn 4 10 4 5 6 1 3 313 2

Michigan State 1 2 1 8 5 16 11 281.3 3

Mississippi 29 2 6 3 3 3 1 279.3 4

Baylor 5 6 3 12 13 10 8 274 5

Georgia 11 21 9 9 9 4 5 264.8 6

TCU 11 21 9 10 10 12 7 255.3 7

Nebraska 14 10 7 16 16 24 18 251.4 8

Mississippi State 9 42 11 1 1 5 4 250.9 9

Ohio State 2 24 5 13 12 5 13 250.6 10

Clemson 45 10 14 21 20 17 17 249.7 11

USC 8 47 12 20 21 13 19 249.7 12

LSU 38 21 17 24 23 11 12 239.9 13

Notre Dame 27 26 12 7 8 15 15 239 14

West Virginia 31 44 22 22 25 - 24 239 15

Oklahoma 35 49 29 17 18 9 6 230.3 16

Pittsburgh 58 6 16 - - - 52 223.6 17

Louisville 73 1 14 - - - 29 223.6 18

Stanford 83 6 25 - - 19 21 220.6 19

Miami, Fl. 56 30 29 - - - 37 218.7 20

Kansas State 16 59 23 11 11 25 14 217.9 21

Arkansas 21 80 46 - - 20 32 217.4 22

Iowa 58 13 18 - - - 41 216.9 23

Memphis 53 30 25 - - - 48 216.6 24

Virginia 71 15 28 - - - 53 216.4 25


Conference Breakdown

AAC: 1

ACC: 5

Big 10: 4

Big 12: 5

CUSA: 0

IND: 1

MAC: 0

MWC: 0

Pac-12: 2

SEC: 7

SUN: 0

Strength of each conference taking average ranking of ALL TEAMS:

SEC: 29.07

Big 12: 43.75

Pac-12: 45.10

ACC: 46.64

Big 10: 53.29

IND: 67.25

MWC: 76.08

CUSA: 84.77

AAC: 85.36

MAC: 93.69

SUN: 93.91

Below are the biggest MOVERS in overall ranking since last week:

Ratings Comparison

Team Week 8 Week 9 Change

Arizona State 61 36 25

Oklahoma State 54 77 (23)

Houston 78 57 21

Western Michigan 71 50 21

Rutgers 50 70 (20)

Indiana 74 93 (19)

Northwestern 56 73 (17)

San Diego State 76 61 15

Syracuse 87 72 15


Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams. Not much changing with the mid-major schools as the metrics still have Memphis as the top school in this group. Bettors should note that Marshall is the only Conference USA team listed in my Top 60.

Other subpar conference include the MAC, who has seven of 13 schools ranked 100th or lower. The Sun Belt is far from great too with nine of the 11 listed at 85 or worst and four are 110th or lower.

Top 10 non-Power 5

Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule

Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank

Memphis 53 30 25 - - - 48 216.6 24

Boise State 39 36 21 - - - 42 209 28

East Carolina 20 46 18 18 17 - 38 204.4 31

Marshall 5 26 8 23 22 21 31 201.8 32

Utah State 87 14 35 - - - 59 196.5 35

BYU 61 55 47 - - - 43 186 44

Arkansas State 62 41 37 - - - 56 182.8 49

Western Michigan 21 65 33 - - - 87 181.4 50

Colorado State 32 73 47 - - - 55 176 51

Air Force 27 56 27 - - - 94 174.6 53


Lastly here are the Bottom 10 teams according to College Football SBPI:

Bottom 10 teams

Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule

Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank

South Florida 123 88 121 - - - 97 87.5 119

Wyoming 113 113 123 - - - 100 84 120

Georgia State 87 127 120 - - - 126 83.1 121

Troy 103 121 119 - - - 125 82.6 122

Southern Mississippi 109 121 122 - - - 105 82.4 123

Vanderbilt 125 104 126 - - - 99 72.1 124

UNLV 120 118 124 - - - 119 69.5 125

Kent State 121 118 125 - - - 122 64 126

Eastern Michigan 124 123 127 - - - 128 55.1 127

SMU 126 128 128 - - - 124 38.9 128


For this week I have adjusted “SAG” ranks to just show FBS/1A teams – that gives a better feel for where he ranks the FCS teams compared to the College Football SBPI.

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers, Rebels renew rivalry

October 22, 2014


TURN BACK THE CLOCK IN BATON ROUGE

Among our favorite exercises each year at TGS are the well-received "Retrospective" pieces we run each summer in conjunction with our college football conference previews. Having been publishing since 1957, we have nearly six decades worth of memories to draw upon and catalog as we deem appropriate, and the "Retrospectives" allow us the opportunity to indulge upon the best of those recollections.

Somewhat coincidentally, the 2014 gridiron revival in the Magnolia State immediately brings to mind some of our earlier days at TGS and an era in which Johnny Vaught's Ole Miss was a constant presence near the top of the polls (as the Rebs are again this season for HC Hugh Freeze). More specifically, Saturday's renewal of hostilities vs. LSU at Baton Rouge recalls one of our favorite "Retrospectives" from this past summer when we highlighted the glory years of the history between the Rebels and the Tigers, a rivalry which once burned as bright or brighter than any in country.

For the uninitiated, Ole Miss-LSU was at one time Auburn-Alabama...and then some. And when both programs suffered bad stretches, it was the echoes of Billy Cannon's Halloween punt return and Archie "Who" that reminded everyone to keep things >uncivil. Ole Miss-LSU has always transcended the games and materialized in the mutual hate between the fans. "Go to hell LSU" and "Geaux to hell Ole Miss" are timeless greetings these supporters have for one another and will undoubtedly be dusted off for the upcoming renewal of the heated rivalry on Saturday.

Remember, between 1958 and 1965, either the Rebs or Tigers were ranked in the Top 10 every time they played. Both were ranked among the nation's top six teams five of the six times they met between 1958 and 1962. Indeed, the late '50s and early '60s were the midst of a short period of time when both LSU and Ole Miss were at the top of the college football universe, a period when Vaught and LSU HC Paul Dietzel were across the sidelines from one another.

How special was Ole Miss-LSU? Pete Finney, longtime sports columnist for the New Orleans Times-Picayune and a friend for more than five decades, began covering LSU football in 1954, and a few years ago was recounting for another article some of his memories about the glory days of the Ole Miss-LSU rivalry. "In the late '50s and early '60s, Ole Miss-LSU was by far the biggest rivalry in southern football and at least as big as anything else in the country," Finney said. "You had great teams, great coaches, great players, and they were both in the hunt for national championships and major bowls."

Much as Jimmy Ott, the longtime host (with Charles Hanagriff) of "Sports Today" on ESPN Radio Baton Rouge, and on whose show we have appeared each Friday for more than a decade, recently recalled when remembering the glory days of Ole Miss and LSU. "Back in those days," Ott told us in the summer, "Ole Miss was kind of like the Dallas Cowboys of college football."

While Ole Miss and LSU evolved into more of a regional than national rivalry over the past 50 years, the "glory era" of Rebs-Tigers effectively stretched fifteen seasons from 1958-72. Our summer SEC "Retrospective" piece detailed almost all of those matchups, including the epic Halloween night thriller at Baton Rouge in 1959 between Dietzel's top-ranked and defending national champ Tigers and Vaught's third-ranked, also unbeaten Rebels.

The 1958-59 LSU teams were among the most colorful of the TGS era, thanks to an idea Dietzel hit upon that changed his fortunes, linked to the enactment of substitution rule changes in 1953 that effectively restored football to a one-platoon game. Coaches attempted to find the best ways around the rules, but no one came up with a more effective method than Dietzel engineered in 1958, when he divided his unfancied Tigers into three units...White, Go, and Chinese Bandits, the latter a second-string defense molded primarily from underclassmen and walk-ons. The Bandits developed a feisty character and generated immense popularity; members of the unit temporarily promoted to the second string "Go" unit in place of injured players asked Dietzel to move them back to the Bandits as soon as possible. Their spirit inspired better play out of LSU's stars, including 1959 Heisman Trophy-winning back Billy Cannon.

It was Cannon who would prove the savior of the 1959 Halloween classic vs. Ole Miss. With LSU trailing 3-0 and barely 10 minutes to play, the Rebs' Jake Gibbs angled a punt away from Cannon so that he could not quite catch it. The ball bounced, but it would neatly carom into Cannon's hands at the LSU 11-yard line. And then Cannon was off on the run of the year, or the century (if you're an LSU fan, that is). Cannon weaved through and then outran the pursuit to score an 89-yard return and the TD of his life. The deafening roar in Tiger Stadium could likely have been heard in Oxford, and would partially drown out the return's final seconds of the celebrated radio call by legendary Tiger play-by-play man J.C. Politz, whose description of "the play" became a hot seller (at least in Louisiana) on "45" vinyl records of the day.

In later years, even Ole Miss HC Vaught would grudgingly acknowledge the greatness of Cannon's punt return. "Outside of the Louisiana Purchase in 1803," said Vaught, "many Cajuns consider Billy Cannon's run the greatest event in state history."

There are several footnotes to Cannon's dramatic punt return that have been mostly forgotten in college football folklore, but examined in-depth within our "Retrospective" piece. There were still ten minutes to play after Cannon's TD, and Ole Miss would use nearly all of that time in a long drive that tested LSU to the core, eventually reaching the Tiger 2 before Reb QB Doug Elmore was stopped by, among others, Cannon (also a DB) to preserve the 7-3 win. But LSU would be knocked from the top of the polls the following week when shocked 14-13 at Tennessee. And eventually there would be a Sugar Bowl rematch vs. Ole Miss, with even more hype and ballyhoo than the epic Halloween showdown. Yet few recall the rematch because the Rebs dominated and got their quick revenge in a 21-0 win. "I can't believe they agreed to play us again," Rebel HC Vaught would say 40 years later. "That was the dumbest thing anybody ever did. No way we were going to lose that game."

Those epic duels from the 1959 season were just part of the tale we told in our "Retrospective" regarding this rivalry. Hopefully, there might be another chapter to add to the rich Ole Miss-LSU tradition after Saturday's renewal at Tiger Stadium.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 9

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23

Game 105-106: Connecticut at East Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 72.041; East Carolina 101.940
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 30; 52
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 27 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-27 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 91.748; Virginia Tech 90.606
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 3; 52
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+3); Under


FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24

Game 109-110: Troy at South Alabama (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 61.366; South Alabama 85.248
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 24; 58
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 13 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-13 1/2); Over

Game 111-112: South Florida at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 72.132; Cincinnati 86.710
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 14 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-10 1/2); Under

Game 113-114: BYU at Boise State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 85.094; Boise State 87.989
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 3; 45
Vegas Line: Boise State by 7; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (+7); Under

Game 115-116: Oregon at California (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 105.473; California 90.825
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 14 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Oregon by 18 1/2; 77
Dunkel Pick: California (+18 1/2); Under


SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25

Game 117-118: South Carolina at Auburn (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 80.576; Auburn 114.275
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 33 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Auburn by 17 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-17 1/2); Under

Game 119-120: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 72.807; Eastern Michigan 60.046
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 13; 57
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 20; 61
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+20); Under

Game 121-122: Mississippi State at Kentucky (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 114.474; Kentucky 90.579
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 24; 50
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 13 1/2; 59
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-13 1/2); Under

Game 123-124: Syracuse at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 86.920; Clemson 107.123
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 20; 56
Vegas Line: Clemson by 14; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-14); Over

Game 125-126: Minnesota at Illinois (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 88.494; Illinois 84.536
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 57
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+7); Under

Game 127-128: Akron at Ball State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 72.024; Ball State 74.573
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 2 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Akron by 2 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+2 1/2); Over

Game 129-130: Central Michigan at Buffalo (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 79.889; Buffalo 72.324
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 7 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 3 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-3 1/2); Under

Game 131-132: Ohio at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 67.701; Western Michigan 81.348
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 13 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 10; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-10); Under

Game 133-134: Boston College at Wake Forest (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 87.940; Wake Forest 78.091
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 10; 42
Vegas Line: Boston College by 12 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+12 1/2); Over

Game 135-136: Temple at Central Florida (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 84.700; Central Florida 97.033
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 12 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-9); Over

Game 137-138: North Carolina at Virginia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 88.740; Virginia 92.378
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 3 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Virginia by 7; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+7); Under

Game 139-140: Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 89.177; Pittsburgh 88.015
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 57
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+4); Under

Game 141-142: Maryland at Wisconsin (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 90.333; Wisconsin 104.490
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 14; 52
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 11; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-11); Under

Game 143-144: Vanderbilt at Missouri (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 71.555; Missouri 106.122
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 34 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Missouri by 21; 47
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-21); Over

Game 145-146: San Jose State at Navy (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 77.619; Navy 81.276
Dunkel Line: Navy by 3 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Navy by 9 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+9 1/2); Over

Game 147-148: UNLV at Utah State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 76.237; Utah State 90.458
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 14; 49
Vegas Line: Utah State by 17 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+17 1/2); Under

Game 149-150: Massachusetts at Toledo (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 68.424; Toledo 90.688
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 22; 62
Vegas Line: Toledo by 16; 70
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-16); Under

Game 151-152: UCLA at Colorado (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 95.533; Colorado 84.865
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 10 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: UCLA by 13 1/2; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+13 1/2); Under

Game 153-154: Rutgers at Nebraska (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 85.674; Nebraska 106.672
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 21; 64
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 17; 57
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-17); Over

Game 155-156: Kent State at Miami (OH) (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 62.135; Miami (OH) 70.440
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 8; 56
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 6 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-6 1/2); Over

Game 157-158: UAB at Arkansas (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 79.227; Arkansas 99.324
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 20; 66
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 23 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+23 1/2); Over

Game 159-160: Texas Tech at TCU (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 84.355; TCU 113.308
Dunkel Line: TCU by 29; 76
Vegas Line: TCU by 22; 70 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-22); Over

Game 161-162: Memphis at SMU (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 87.077; SMU 67.064
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 20; 60
Vegas Line: Memphis by 23 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+23); Over

Game 163-164: Oregon State at Stanford (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 91.802; Stanford 107.907
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 16; 47
Vegas Line: Stanford by 13; 44
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-13); Over

Game 165-166: Alabama at Tennessee (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 104.405; Tennessee 93.788
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 10 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Alabama by 18; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+18); Over

Game 167-168: Michigan at Michigan State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 95.301; Michigan State 109.654
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 14 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 17 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+17 1/2); Under

Game 169-170: Wyoming at Colorado State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 71.298; Colorado State 93.861
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 22 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 18 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-18 1/2); Over

Game 171-172: Mississippi at LSU (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 113.050; LSU 106.209
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 7; 52
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-3 1/2); Over

Game 173-174: Arizona at Washington State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 95.013; Washington State 94.724
Dunkel Line: Even; 63
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 71
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+3); Under

Game 175-176: USC at Utah (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 101.787; Utah 100.478
Dunkel Line: USC by 1 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Utah by 1; 56
Dunkel Pick: USC (+1); Over

Game 177-178: Georgia Southern at Georgia State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 78.742; Georgia State 60.180
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 18 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 16; 66
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (-16); Under

Game 179-180: North Texas at Rice (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 65.113; Rice 84.589
Dunkel Line: Rice by 19 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Rice by 14; 57
Dunkel Pick: Rice (-14); Over

Game 181-182: Louisiana Tech at Southern Mississippi (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 80.946; Southern Mississippi 75.173
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 6; 51
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 10; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+10); Under

Game 183-184: UTEP at TX-San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 69.728; TX-San Antonio 76.674
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 7; 57
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 10; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+10); Over

Game 185-186: Florida Atlantic at Marshall (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 70.913; Marshall 104.850
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 34; 56
Vegas Line: Marshall by 28; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-28); Under

Game 187-188: Texas State at UL-Monroe (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 66.761; UL-Monroe 66.849
Dunkel Line: Even; 58
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 3; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (+3); Over

Game 189-190: Old Dominion at Western Kentucky (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 64.537; Western Kentucky 78.138
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 13 1/2; 79
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 10 1/2; 76
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-10 1/2); Over

Game 191-192: West Virginia at Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 99.793; Oklahoma State 98.139
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 1 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 1; 63
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+1); Over

Game 193-194: Texas at Kansas State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 92.373; Kansas State 104.915
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 12 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 9 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-9 1/2); Over

Game 195-196: Ohio State at Penn State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 104.645; Penn State 94.483
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 10; 49
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 14; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:: Penn State (+14); Under

Game 197-198: Arizona State at Washington (10:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 101.791; Washington 95.995
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 6; 65
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 3 1/2; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-3 1/2); Over

Game 199-200: Nevada at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 80.131; Hawaii 80.432;
Dunkel Line: Even; 50
Vegas Line: Nevada by 3; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+3); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Week 9


UConn still looking for first ATS win of season

As bad as the UConn Huskies have been on their field, they've been even worse against the spread. The Huskies are 0-6 ATS this season and remain the only team in the nation that has yet to cover a single game.

UConn has failed to cover each of their games by an average of almost nine points per game.

The Huskies are +27.5 against East Carolina Thursday.


No team pummeling opponents like Marshall

The Thundering Herd has been absolutely abusing opponents so far this season. In Marshall's seven games this season, they have outscored opponents by an average of 29.2 ppg, which is tops in the nation.

The Herd have been favored by an average of 22.5 ppg so far this season.

Marshall is currently 28-point home faves against Florida Atlantic.


One week after benching, Utah back to WIlson

One week after Utah decided it was best for them to start Kendal Thompson at quarterback, the team has gone back to Travis Wilson. Thompson started the Utes last game against Oregon State, going 4-for-8 with an interception before being pulled at halftime for Wilson.

In Wilson's five starts this season, he has seven touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Utes will host USC Saturday.


Michigan State gets starting center back

The Michigan State Spartans are going to be getting along their offensive line when they welcome back Jack Allen this week.

Allen, who was elected to the All-Big Ten team last season, injured himself two weeks ago against Purdue and missed last weeks game against Indiana.

MSU hosts in state rival Michigan Saturday.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's games
1-5 UConn is terrible, with its only win by FG over I-AA Stony Brook; Huskies are 0-5 vs spread this season, losing road games 17-14/12-3 at USF/Tulane, not exactly national powers. East Carolina is 5-1, winning its last four games while scoring 42.8 ppg; Pirates are 10-7 as favorites at home under McNeill, 1-1 this year; only one of their five wins was by more than 21 points. UConn is 3-11 in last 14 games as road underdog, 0-2 this year. AAC home favoritea are 4-6 vs spread in conference play.

Miami is playing a freshman QB, and is 0-3 on road, losing by 18-10-11 points; 'canes are 1-6-1 in last eight games as road underdogs- they gave up 28+ points in three of last four games. Virginia Tech is 2-3 in its five games since winning at Ohio State; they're 0-3 as home faves this year, losing SU to ECU/Ga Tech. Since 2011, Hokies are 5-14-1 as the home favorite- they scored 34+ points in all four wins this year, 24 or less in all three losses. ACC home faves are 8-9 vs spread in conference games.

[StarDust Bum]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences

Team to watch: South Alabama Jaguars (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)

This week: -13.5 vs. Troy

Troy got just seven points at Appalachian State last week, but the visitors fell 53-14. For those counting, that means they were 32 points away from pushing and 33 away from covering. The Trojans, who are 1-6 overall and have five games remaining under head coach Larry Blakeney (he announced his upcoming retirement earlier this month), turned the ball over four times against the Mountaineers.

That’s not a good recipe for facing an opponent that is second best in the Sun Belt Conference in turnover margin. South Alabama should match up well against Troy in other areas, too. The Jaguars are third in the conference in scoring defense (22.3 ppg) and fourth in rushing defense (168.3 ypg). Troy is 10th in scoring offense (19.6 ppg) and eighth in rushing offense (132.4 ypg).

The line has already moved two points at most sportsbooks, with money coming in on South Alabama.


Team to beware: Ohio Bobcats (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)

This week: +10 at Western Michigan

Ohio is coming off a 23-20 win over Akron last week, but it still has plenty of issues on its hands. One is a quarterback controversy. Derrius Vick has missed four games with a knee injury but returned to practice on Monday and could play against Western Michigan. J.D. Sprague has filled in, completing less than half of his passes (91 for 188) with 1,107 yards, three touchdowns, and three picks. Head coach Frank Solich was entirely non-committal on this week’s starter during his most recent press conference.

Penalties have also been plaguing the Bobcats. Despite getting past Akron, they were flagged 11 times for a whopping 120 yards. They committed an unbelievable 16 penalties for 156 yards in a 31-13 loss to Bowling Green on Oct. 11.

Ohio is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games and Western Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six overall.


Total team: Utah State Aggies (4-3 SU, 3-4 O/U)

This week: vs. UNLV

Darell Garretson (91 for 135, 1140 yards, eight TDs, three INTs) has been solid in place of former starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who is out for the season with a knee injury, but teams are forcing Utah State to beat them through the air. Feature running back Joe Hill is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry after going for 6.3 as a sophomore and 4.8 as a junior. The Aggies scored only 13 points in last week’s loss to Colorado State while converting a mere two of 12 third downs.

The under is 9-3 in Utah State’s last 12 overall and 6-0 in its last six conference games. The under is also 4-0 in UNLV’s last four overall and 7-2 in its last nine in the Mountain West. Four consecutive contests between the two teams have gone under the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Connecticut - 7:00 PM ET East Carolina -27.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

East Carolina - Over 54.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY


Miami - 8:00 PM ET Virginia Tech +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Virginia Tech - Under 48 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

9 CFB Games Hit by Professionals
Here’s this week’s Wise Guy Wednesday report for college football. Note that these are not my plays, just information gathered from various sources. Some of those are in Nevada, as well as in various locales both stateside and offshore.

107 Miami Florida got pounded on Monday as the ‘Canes moved from dog to chalk. Substantial buy back is not anticipated.

118 Auburn has gotten some early attention from the pros. South Carolina is getting most of its support from the joes thus far.

Most of the tickets are on Mississippi State, but sharp dollars are starting to show on 122 Kentucky.

The number on 129 Central Michigancontinues to climb, with the Chippewas getting wise guy cash early and the public following.

Syndicates playing both ways on this one, but more of the sharp early action seems to be on140 Pittsburgh as they host Georgia Tech.

The public is laying the wood with Wisconsin, but two of my sources agreed that they expect sharp buyback later in the week on 141 Maryland.

The Utah State QB injury situation is being ignored by the masses, but there has been a trickle of pro dough on 147 UNLV.

Big move on 150 Toledo that was apparently service-influenced, but the consensus is this number has peaked and will decline between now and game day.

The play on 165 Alabama has been mostly square, but it doesn’t appear the sharps are eager to be on the other side.

174 Washington State is going to be the apparent sharp side in a pros/joes battleground game against Arizona.

One sided action on 177 Georgia Southernso far, and this is another game where there might not be any sharp buys to bring the number back.

Nothing much happening yet on 193 Texas, but the general belief seems to be that sharps will buy the Longhorns at some point.

200 Hawaii is drawing some pro play as they play host to Nevada.