The Bum's October College Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, October 17

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Game of the Day: Temple at Houston
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Temple Owls at Houston Cougars (-7.5, 51)

The American Athletic Conference's top two defenses will meet in a primetime clash Friday when Temple visits Houston. The host Cougars lead the AAC in total defense while the Owls lead the league - and are ranked fourth nationally - in scoring defense. The Owls have also turned 17 turnovers into a national-best 79 points.

Houston, which has 19 takeaways this season and at least one in 29 straight games, must overcome significant changes on both sides of the ball. Receiver-turned-quarterback Greg Ward Jr. will make his second start at the position after replacing John O'Korn, and the Cougars lost second-leading receiver Daniel Spencer to a knee injury last week in practice. The Houston defense, which is allowing 322.7 yards and 19.2 points, lost junior cornerback Lee Hightower (leg) and senior linebacker Derrick Mathews (knee) to season-ending injuries in last week's win at Memphis.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE: The Cougars opened as 6-point home favorites and have been bet up to -7.5. The total opened at 48.5 and has been bet up all the way to 51.

INJURY REPORT: Houston - DB Lee Hightower (out for season, leg), LB Derrick Mathews (out for season, knee). Temple - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a great night for football at TDECU Stadium with temperatures in the mid 70s and a six mile per hour wind blowing from the south.

TRENDS:

* Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.
* Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Temple's last five games on fieldturf.
* Under is 4-0 in Houston's last four home games.

CONSENSUS: Almost 59 percent of wagers are backing the road underdogs Temple at +7.5-points.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, October 17


Fresno State providing no value against Boise State

Fresno State will travel to Albertsons Stadium with an abysmal track record against Boise State. The Bulldogs are 1-12 against the spread in the last 13 meetings between the teams.

The lone cover by the Bulldogs came in 2005 when the Bulldogs topped the Broncos 27-7, as 9-point home favorites.

Fresno State is currently 17-point home faves against Boise State.


Temple has been money on the road

There may not be a better under the rader road team in college football for bettors than Temple. In the last six road games, the Owls are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

Though Temple was spotted points in five of those six games, they won outright in their last three outscoring opponents 114-38.

The Owls are 7.5-point road dogs against Houston.

[StarDust Bum]

SBPI Rankings - Week 8

October 16, 2014


In last week’s Contenders vs. Pretenders piece on VegasInsider.com, I introduced users to my College Football Performance Ratings.

I had Auburn ranked as the top team an even though they lost at Mississippi State last Saturday, my numbers still believe the Tigers are better than the Bulldogs and on a neutral field, they would likely be favored.

Below are my Top 25 rankings through eight weeks of action. I also include the AP Poll, USA Today Poll, ESPN’s FPI & Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool.

Top 25 Ratings

Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule

Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank

Auburn 2 13 3 6 8 1 1 312.6 1

Alabama 5 11 4 7 7 5 6 296.3 2

Baylor 4 2 1 4 4 8 5 270.9 3

Georgia 15 14 6 10 10 2 7 268.5 4

Mississippi 29 8 7 3 3 3 2 266.6 5

Michigan State 1 5 2 8 6 21 14 264.8 6

Mississippi State 8 43 12 1 1 6 3 256.2 7

Clemson 43 5 10 24 22 13 18 255.1 8

USC 12 48 20 22 25 14 21 248.8 9

LSU 39 26 18 - - 15 12 247.1 10

East Carolina 19 48 22 18 16 - 46 243.6 11

TCU 32 35 21 12 12 16 8 238.5 12

Ohio State 6 34 8 13 13 11 15 238.5 13

Notre Dame 19 25 10 5 5 18 13 235.7 14

Stanford 65 3 13 23 20 17 16 232.4 15

Nebraska 26 17 9 19 19 - 24 232.2 16

Louisville 83 1 13 - - - 27 226 17

West Virginia 30 54 26 - - - 31 225.7 18

Oklahoma 48 43 35 11 11 7 4 223.9 19

Arkansas 10 76 38 - - 19 25 223.5 20

Texas A&M 26 63 34 21 21 10 9 223.4 21

Pittsburgh 49 11 13 - - - 54 223.1 22

Virginia 70 8 24 - - - 52 221.8 23

Iowa 53 5 16 - - - 40 219.3 24

Miami, Fl. 58 31 31 - - - 47 218 25



Conference Breakdown

AAC: 1

ACC: 5

Big 10: 4

Big 12: 4

CUSA: 0

IND: 1

MAC: 0

MWC: 0

Pac-12: 2

SEC: 8

SUN: 0

Strength of each conference taking average ranking of ALL TEAMS:

SEC: 27.57

Big 12: 43.80

Pac-12: 44.92

ACC: 47.93

Big 10: 50.00

IND: 66.75

MWC: 77.75

CUSA:83.54

AAC: 87.00

MAC: 94.85

SUN: 95.09

Below are the biggest MOVERS in overall ranking since last week:

Ratings Comparison

Team Week 7 Week 8 Change

Arkansas State 75 42 33

Georgia Southern 39 67 (28)

Indiana 49 74 (25)

Akron 59 84 (25)

East Carolina 34 11 23

Missouri 21 44 (23)

Boston College 70 51 19

Northern Illinois 45 64 (19)

Syracuse 68 87 (19)

Washington 83 65 18

Texas 53 36 17

Florida State 56 39 17

Georgia 19 4 15

Central Michigan 73 58 15

Duke 77 62 15


Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams:

Top 10 Non-Power 5 Ratings

Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule

Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank

East Carolina 19 48 22 18 16 - 46 243.6 11

Memphis 52 27 26 - - - 57 214.3 27

Utah State 74 17 31 - - - 55 203.6 32

Boise State 47 38 30 - - - 49 202.4 35

Marshall 3 27 5 25 24 24 35 199.5 37

Arkansas State 64 37 40 - - - 59 185.5 42

Air Force 24 57 25 - - - 113 184.7 43

BYU 72 55 58 - - - 38 182.4 47

Louisiana Tech 74 58 66 - - - 67 177.6 52

Rice 21 93 62 - - - 86 176.3 55


Lastly here are the Bottom 10 teams according to College Football SBPI:


Botton 10 Ratings

Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule

Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank

Wyoming 114 112 120 - - - 117 88.3 119

South Florida 123 80 120 - - - 120 87.3 120

Idaho 105 119 119 - - - 183 82.5 121

Georgia State 93 127 120 - - - 196 78.6 122

Southern Mississippi 117 122 123 - - - 148 73.7 123

Vanderbilt 126 100 125 - - - 123 73.3 124

UNLV 120 120 124 - - - 173 68.7 125

Eastern Michigan 122 125 126 - - - 198 57.3 126

Kent State 124 123 127 - - - 189 52.7 127

SMU 125 128 128 - - - 160 46.1 128

[StarDust Bum]

Fresno State at Boise State

October 16, 2014


With identical 2-1 records in Mountain West play, albeit in opposite divisions, Boise State and Fresno State will hit the smurf turf Friday night in Idaho for a critical conference clash.

As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Boise State (4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread) installed as a 17-point favorite with a total of 62.5 or 63. The total increased from 61 between Wednesday and Thursday.

Boise State returns home for the first time in nearly a month (September 20 to be exact). In a pair of home games, the Broncos beat Louisiana-Lafayette, 34-9 as 17.5-point favorites and also knocked off Colorado State, 37-24 as 7.5-point 'chalk.'

BSU opened the season with a 35-13 loss to Ole Miss at the Georgia Dome. However, we should note that the Broncos were trailing by just one point (7-6) with less than 13 minutes remaining. They failed to cover the number as 9.5-point underdogs.

From there, Bryan Harsin's team ripped off three consecutive wins both SU and ATS before losing 28-14 at Air Force. On October 4, BSU bounced back by winning a 51-46 decision at Nevada as a three-point road favorite.

BSU's offensive attack is built around junior RB Jay Ajayi, who has rushed for 709 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.0 yards per carry. In the win over the Wolf Pack, Ajayi rushed for 152 yards and three TDs on 27 carries. Grant Hedrick threw for 346 yards and a pair of TD passes and ran for another score.

Hedrick has had an up-and-down season. On the bright side, he is completing 72.1 percent of his passes and in his team's four wins, the senior signal caller has a 6/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, Hedrick threw four interceptions in each of BSU's two losses to bring his season TD-INT ratio to an abysmal 7/10.

Boise State will be without senior wide receiver Matt Miller for the rest of the season due to an ankle injury sustained on Sept. 27 in a loss at Air Force. Miller finishes his collegiate career as the Broncos' all-time leader in receptions (244), second all-time leader in receiving yards (3,049) and third all-time in TD catches (29).

Fresno State (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) lost three in a row to start the season, but it took a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS into Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas last Friday night. However, the Rebels put an end to that win streak by capturing a 30-27 overtime win as 9.5-point home underdogs.

The Bulldogs lost the turnover battle 4-1 at UNLV, wasting a pair of big-time performances. RB Marteze Waller (661 rushing yards for the season) ran 17 times for 137 yards and one TD against the Rebels. WR Josh Harper had 12 receptions for 187 yards and one TD.

Fresno State junior QB Brian Burrell had three TD passes against UNLV, but he was also picked off twice. For the season, Burrell has an 11/6 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing scores. The 'over' is 4-3 overall for Fresno State, but the 'under' has cashed in three straight games for the Bulldogs. Their road road assignments have been a wash in terms of totals (2-2).

Totals have been a wash overall (3-3) and at home (1-1) for Boise State We should note that this is the highest total the Broncos have seen this year.

Boise State has taken the cash in eight consecutive head-to-head meetings with Fresno State, going 12-1 ATS in the last 13 encounters. BSU saw its seven-game winning streak over the Bulldogs snapped in a 41-40 loss last year, but the Broncos still managed to cover the number as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Who will start at QB for Indiana vs. Michigan State? It sounds like true freshman Zander Diamont, who was going to be redshirted and has yet to take a collegiate snap. Chris Covington got all the playing time last week when Nate Sudfeld went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. Covington, another true freshman who was playing linebacker in early August, apparently won't "because his Mama said so," according to a Wednesday report from the Indianapolis Star. -- Arizona State and Florida will both use two-QB systems this week. Jeff Driskel will start for the Gators, but they will also use the hero from a comeback win at Tennessee two weeks ago, true freshman Treon Harris from out of Miami. Harris didn't dress out in a 30-27 loss to LSU because had be suspended all week (but was reinstated to the team on Friday).

-- Arizona State QB Taylor Kelly is ready to return in Saturday's home game against Stanford. However, Todd Graham is going to bring him back slowly and Mike Bercovici will most likely make his third straight start.

-- Missouri owns a 23-9 spread record on the road since 2007.

-- As a home favorite during Will Muschamp's tenure, Florida is 7-12 ATS

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, October 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Fresno State - 8:00 PM ET Boise State -17.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Boise State - Under 61.5 500 *****


Temple - 9:00 PM ET Temple +9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Houston - Under 52.5 500 *****

[jcindaville]

Good luck Bum

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Top Action

October 17, 2014


TEXAS A&M AGGIES (5-2) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (5-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Alabama -14, Total: 63.5

In a tough SEC matchup, No. 21 Texas A&M travels to Tuscaloosa to take on No. 7 Alabama Saturday.

The Aggies opened the 2014 campaign in impressive fashion, as they were 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) through their first five games before running into the meat of their schedule. They have lost their past two contests, both against top-three teams in the nation (No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 3 Ole Miss), by an average of 16.0 PPG while turning the ball over six times. Last week they were favorites at home against the Rebels, but despite an impressive 455 yards of offense, they fell 35-20 due to three giveaways and a meager 1.5 YPC on 35 rushing attempts. Alabama was upset when it traveled to Ole Miss a few weeks ago as a four-point favorite, losing by a score of 23-17 and continuing a poor season ATS. Overall the Tide are 1-4-1 ATS after once again failing to cover last week when they barely earned a 14-13 victory as 8.5-point favorites at Arkansas. They have actually lost the turnover battle this year as they have coughed up the pigskin 11 times compared to forcing eight turnovers, and have been held under 4.0 YPC in each of the past two weeks.

This matchup has not failed to live up to the hype in either of the past two seasons, as the road team has come away with a SU victory each time while Texas A&M is 2-0 ATS. Last year, the Crimson Tide were 49-42 victors as eight-point favorites on the road as the teams combined for 62 first downs and a jaw-dropping 1,164 yards of total offense. Bettors should know that Alabama is a meager 22-41 ATS (35%) in home game when coming off one or more consecutive Unders since 1992, while the Aggies are a woeful 1-11 ATS (8%) in road games after gaining 450+ total yards in three consecutive games over the same timeframe. Neither team has any significant injuries to keep an eye on heading into this game.

The Aggies said goodbye to Johnny Manziel this past offseason, but have kept their high-octane passing attack going with 396 YPG through the air (3rd in FBS) while scoring 43.9 PPG (6th in nation). QB Kenny Hill (2,511 pass yards, 23 TD, 7 INT) is to thank for much of the production, as he has thrown for 300+ yards in five of the seven games while passing for at least 365 yards with a total of 10 TD over the past three weeks. His turnovers have been worrisome since facing tougher competition though, as he has all of his seven picks in the past four weeks, including five over the two defeats. The duo of HBs Trey Williams (301 rush yards, 5 TD) and Tra Carson (273 rush yards, 4 TD) mans the backfield, as Carson has tallied double-digit attempts in each of the past two games while not scoring in the past four games. Hill likes to spread the ball around, as six different receivers have 23+ receptions with WR Josh Reynolds (476 rec yards, 8 TD) leading the team in receiving yards and touchdown grabs while averaging 16.4 yards per catch.

One area to be worried about on this team is the defense, as it has allowed 37.0 PPG over the past three weeks and is giving up 397 YPG of total offense to its opponents. The combo of DBs Deshazor Everett (47 tackles, 1 INT) and Howard Matthews (44 tackles, 2.5 TFL) with DL Myles Garrett (33 tackles, 7.5 sacks) should give the team hope for better performances to come.

Alabama is always one of the more balanced offenses in the nation, and this year is no different as it is gaining 288.7 passing YPG (28th in FBS) and 211.3 rushing YPG (30th in nation) while scoring 33.2 PPG. QB Blake Sims (1,480 pass yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has thrown for more than 250 yards just once on the season, as he has done well keeping the ball out of the defense's hands and also contributes to the rushing attack (154 rush yards, 3 TD). Joining him in the backfield is the impressive tandem of HBs T.J. Yeldon (452 rush yards, 2 TD) and Derrick Henry (382 rush yards, 2 TD) who have each eclipsed the century mark twice this season. WR Amari Cooper has hauled in 54 of the 122 completions on the team (44%) for 768 yards (14.2 avg). But Cooper has failed to crack 100 yards in either of the past two games after averaging 163.8 YPG over the first four. As usual, the Crimson Tide defense has been stout, allowing a mere 15.3 PPG (6th in nation) to their opponents behind the play of DB Landon Collins (46 tackles, 2 INT) and DL Xzavier Dickson (20 tackles, 5 sacks).

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (5-1) at TCU HORNED FROGS (4-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: : TCU -10, Total: 62

No. 12 TCU looks to bounce back from a tough loss against Baylor when it hosts No. 15 Oklahoma State on Saturday.

The Cowboys are coming into this game off a surprisingly narrow 27-20 victory against 18-point underdog Kansas. The game was tied with seven minutes to go before Tyreek Hill took a kickoff 99 yards to help OSU prevail. As the Cowboys (3-3 ATS) have gotten deeper into the season, head coach Mike Gundy’s teams have shown the ability to play their best football, as Oklahoma State is 12-3 ATS in the second half of the season since 2012. For the Horned Frogs, they will be looking for redemption after last week's 61-58 loss to Baylor, when they blew a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter. But TCU (5-0 ATS) is clicking on offense this season, and that could play a big role in the game, as the team is 8-1 ATS when scoring at least 28 points in the past two seasons.

Last season, the Cowboys defeated the Horned Frogs, 24-10. It was a struggle for both offenses as each school committed four turnovers and nine penalties. The Cowboys were able to rattle QB Trevone Boykin, who threw for 188 yards and three interceptions. Boykin has reportedly been bothered by a wrist injury, but he is expected to start in this matchup. Oklahoma State is dealing with a couple new injuries with both CB Ashton Lampkin and OL Zachary Crabtree listed as questionable due to ankle injuries.

Despite the struggles in Lawrence last week, the Cowboys won their fifth straight game since a season-opening loss to Florida State. The Oklahoma State offense has been solid all season, ranking 26th in FBS scoring (37.2 PPG) and 40th in passing (265.7 YPG), but have just 155.0 rushing YPG (80th in nation). Junior QB Daxx Garman (1,361 passing yards, 10 TD and 5 INT) has filled in nicely for J.W. Walsh, who suffered a foot injury in Week 2 and remains out indefinitely. However, for Oklahoma State to be able to compete in this game, Garman will have to improve his accuracy (58% completion rate). On the ground, RB Desmond Roland (96 carries, 391 yards and 7 TD) is the workhorse on the offense. He is a big physical runner that can wear out his opponent late in the fourth quarter. RB Tyreek Hill (38 carries, 196 yards, 5.2 YPG) is one of the fastest players in all of the country. While the Cowboys use him as a decoy a lot of the time, the defense always has to know where he is on the field. WR Brandon Sheperd (18 catches, 299 yards and 2 TD) has shown the ability to make the big play, and he has an 87-yard touchdown on the season.

The Cowboys defense has had its moments this season, ranking 62nd in the country in scoring defense (24.7 PPG). LB Ryan Simmons (44 tackles, 3.5 TFL) is the leading tackler on the team, while LB Seth Jacobs (41 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 INT) will also be needed to contain the Horned Frogs. Sophomore DE Emmanuel Ogbah (27 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 5 sacks) can cause a lot of havoc rushing the quarterback. The Horned Frogs were unable to get the victory last week, but showed how well they can play on offense with 58 points and 485 total yards. TCU now ranks third in the country in scoring (45.8 PPG), 12th in passing (325.2 YPG) and 52nd in rushing (184.8 YPG). QB Trevone Boykin (1,463 pass yards, 305 rush yards, 14 total TD) has taken his game to a completely new level, proving to be one of the most dynamic players in the country. There was a report early in the week that he had surgery on his wrist, but head coach Gary Patterson came out and said that wasn’t true, and he was able to practice this week. Running back B.J. Catalon (59 carries, 268 yards and 6 TD) has shown the ability to run the ball, helping the Horned Frogs have so many passing opportunities. Wide receiver Kolby Listenbee (18 catches, 418 yards and 3 TD) is averaging a very impressive 23.2 YPC, and will force the Cowboys defense to keep a safety over top.

The Horned Frogs allow 23.0 PPG (51st in FBS), but had been known as a terrific defense before last week's debacle where they allowed 61 points and 782 total yards. They entered the game giving up only 54 points in the first four games combined. Linebacker Paul Dawson (55 tackles, 7 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 INT) is one of the best playmakers in the country on defense. He does a terrific job against the run, but can also defend well in pass coverage. S Chris Hackett (37 tackles, 2 PD, 2 INT) is the leader of the secondary, who will be key to helping his unit recover from the dismal performance last week.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (6-0) at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (6-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -12.5

Saturday's marquee matchup takes place in Tallahassee when No. 5 Notre Dame visits defending national champion No. 2 Florida State.

The Irish have started their 2014 campaign with six straight SU wins by an average of 17.3 PPG while going 4-2 ATS. In that time they have done well on defense, forcing teams to turn the ball over multiple times in 5-of-6 contests while having their worst performance to date last week against North Carolina. They went into the weekend as large 16.5-point favorites over the Tar Heels at home and actually trailed by a point (36-35) heading into the final quarter before eventually prevailing in a 50-43 victory. The two teams combined for 1,029 yards of total offense while Notre Dame looked sloppy and turned the ball over on three occasions. Florida State also brings a perfect record into this one but has not been as dominant as most would have thought, going 1-5 ATS. The 'Noles have not really faced a team of top caliber yet, with Clemson being the only spread near single digits (-10), and they did not overwhelm Syracuse last week as expected. As 23.5-point favorites on the road, the Seminoles captured a 38-20 victory from the Orange as they totaled 482 yards of offense while forcing three turnovers. Their defense did not do its job though, allowing 412 yards of offense to their opponent with 256 of those yards coming through the air from a team that ranks in the bottom half of FBS in that category.

These programs have faced each other just once in the past decade when they met in the 2011 Citrus Bowl when FSU came away with an 18-14 win despite rushing for a meager 41 yards on 1.4 YPC. Trends show us that the Fighting Irish are a solid 25-7 ATS (78%) in October road games since 1992 while the Seminoles are 21-8 ATS (75%) after failing to cover the spread in four of their past five games over this same timeframe. As far as injuries go, Notre Dame has no significant ones to speak of, while WR Rashad Greene (foot) and HB Karlos Williams (ankle) have both been upgraded to probable for Florida State.

Notre Dame has been able to conquer opposing defense with a balanced offense that has posted 34.5 PPG while gaining 280.5 YPG through the air (34th in FBS) and 163.8 YPG on the ground (69th in nation). QB Everett Golson (1,683 pass yards, 16 TD, 4 INT) started out the season without a turnover in the first three contests, but since has thrown four picks while seeing his completion percentage drop to 51% in the past two games. Still, his overall season has been impressive, as Golson has thrown for 295+ yards in 3-of-6 games while having multiple passing touchdowns in each contest and contributing to the run game with 209 yards (3.6 YPC) and four scores. HB Tarean Folston (263 rush yards, 2 TD) leads the backfield with 60 attempts (4.4 YPC) while being the workhorse last week with 98 yards on 18 attempts (5.4 YPC) with 2 TD.

HBs Greg Bryant (201 rush yards, 2 TD) and Cam McDaniel (181 rush yards, 2 TD) also contribute plenty to the rushing attack with 43+ attempts each. WR William Fuller (504 rec yards, 7 TD) has 16 more receptions (35) than the next closest receiver while grabbing at least six balls in 4-of-6 games and reaching the century mark in two of the past three contests. Through the first five games of the year, the defense for the program allowed a miniscule 12.0 PPG to its opponents, and despite last week's poor performance, still ranks eighth in the nation in scoring defense (17.2 PPG). The duo of LBs Jaylon Smith (49 tackles, 2 sacks) and Joe Schmidt (48 tackles) hope they can get the Irish back on track this week.

Florida State is once again among the elite in passing this season, whipping the pigskin around for 324 YPG (13th in nation) while scoring 39.0 PPG (20th in FBS). QB Jameis Winston (1,605 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has not looked quite as composed this season amongst a one-game suspension and now allegations that he accepted money for his autograph, but was able to put all of that aside last week against Syracuse as he had his best performance of the year. He was an efficient 30-for-36 (83.3%) with 317 yards (8.8 YPA) and three touchdowns (0 INTs) in the road victory. HB Karlos Williams (353 rush yards, 5 TD) missed last week due to an ankle injury after having double-digit carries in four of the first five games, but is expected to suit up for this tough battle. If he is not able to play, or is still less than 100 percent, expect freshman HB Dalvin Cook (250 rush yards, 3 TD) to take on the starter’s role after an impressive performance (23 attempts, 122 yards, 1 TD) as the lead back last week when he gained 122 yards on 23 carries (5.3 YPC) with a touchdown.

WR Rashad Greene (683 rec yards, 3 TD) is the team’s leader in receptions (44) while getting six or more catches in four of the six games on the year. He has not been the team’s biggest red-zone threat though, as WR Jesus Wilson (262 rec yards, 4 TD) has the most scores through the air while playing in the slot. The Seminoles defense ranks among the nation's top-50 in yards allowed (358.5 YPG) while giving up 20.7 PPG (30th in FBS) behind the leadership of LBs Reggie Northrup (50 tackles, 1 sack), Terrance Smith (49 tackles, 2 TFL) and DB Jalen Ramsey (45 tackles, 1 INT, 5 TFL).

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's SEC Action

October 17, 2014


**Missouri at Florida**

-- As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Florida (3-2 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 47. Gamblers can take the Tigers on the money line for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200).

-- UF somehow found a way to lose a 30-27 decision to LSU as a 1.5-point home underdog last week. The Gators led by double digits at halftime, failed to get into the end zone at crunch time despite a first-and-goal situation from two yards out and allowed LSU to convert a 3rd-and-25 play that led to a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. LSU won thanks to a generous ruling from the referee (see below in Bonus Nuggets) that preceded a 50-yard game-winning field goal from Colby Delahoussaye with three seconds remaining.

-- With freshman QB Treon Harris out, Jeff Driskel got the starting nod for Florida. The fourth-year junior completed 14-of-25 throws for 183 yards and one touchdown. However, he was intercepted twice, including a pick in the final minute that allowed LSU to get into field-goal range for the winning points. Driskel rushed 21 times for 71 yards and one TD. For the season, he has a 6/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Driskel has two TD passes compared to seven interceptions in the last three games.

-- Missouri (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) took cream-cheese treatment at home last week when Georgia came to town and dealt out a 34-0 clubbing as a three-point road 'chalk.' Missouri's offense generated only 147 yards of total offense and the UGA defense made Maty Mauk look extremely mediocre for the first time in his career. Mauk connected on just 9-of-21 throws for 97 yards and was intercepted four times. For the year, Mauk has a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. His completion percentage has been awful in the last two games (42.9% vs. UGA & 35.3% at South Carolina).

-- UF owns a 7-12 spread record in 19 games as a home favorite during Will Muschamp's four-year tenure.

-- Missouri has been outstanding on the road going back to 2007, compiling a 23-9 ATS record. The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs. They are 2-0 ATS on the road this year, spanking Toledo as short road 'chalk' and winning outright (21-20) in come-from-behind fashion at South Carolina as 6.5-point road puppies.

-- Muschamp will give Driskel the start again this week, but Harris is expected to play early. If Harris is effective, he will almost certainly become the full-time starter moving forward.

-- The 'over' is 4-1 for Florida, 3-0 in its home games.

-- The 'under' has cashed in four consecutive games for the Tigers to improve to 4-2 overall. Their road games have seen a split for the 'over' and 'under.'

-- When these teams met in Columbia last year, Missouri cruised to a 36-17 win as a three-point home favorite. Mauk threw for 295 yards and one TD and also rushed for a score.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**Kentucky at LSU**

-- As of Friday afternoon, most spots had LSU (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) listed as a 10.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 53. Bettors can back UK to win outright for a +325 return (risk $100 to win $325).

-- Kentucky (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) has won five of its first six games for the first time since 2007. That was the same year it upset top-ranked and eventual national champion LSU as a 10-point underdog in a game I dubbed as my SEC Upset of the Year at the VegasInsider.com Handicapping Seminar in August of '07.

-- Mark Stoops's squad smashed ULM by a 48-14 count as a 19.5-point home favorite last weekend. UK trailed 14-3 at the end of the first quarter but outscored the WarHawks 45-0 in the final three quarters. Patrick Towles threw for 216 yards and three TDs without an interception. Stanley 'Boom' Williams returned from suspension to rack up 104 rushing yards and one TD on just seven totes. Javess Blue had three receptions for 109 yards and two TDs, including an 83-yard TD catch.

-- Towles has a 10/4 TD-INT ratio and two rushing scores. UK has four RBs who have rushed for at least 172 yards and two TDs. The quartet also has a minimum average yard per carry of 5.2. JoJo Kemp is tops on the team with 297 rushing yards and four TDs. You can expect to see him taking direct snaps out of the Wildcat formation. Nebraska transfer Braylon Heard has 282 rushing yards while averaging 7.4 YPC.

-- As mentioned above, LSU won 30-27 at Florida last week as a 1.5-point road favorite. Freshman RB Leonard Fournette was the catalyst with 140 rushing yards and two TDs on 27 carries. Anthony Jennings completed 10-of-21 passes for 110 yards and one TD. Brandon Harris didn't play after being rendered ineffective at Auburn in his first career start two weeks ago. Jennings wasn't overly impressive, but the zero in the interception column was key at The Swamp.

-- Jennings has a 6/3 TD-INT ratio but he's completing only 50 percent of his passes. Fournette has rushed for a team-high 504 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.4 YPC.

-- LSU is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year.

-- UK is 3-2 ATS in five road underdog situations since Stoops took over in 2013.

-- The 'over' is 4-2 overall for Kentucky, 1-0 in its lone road assignment.

-- The 'over' is 4-3 overall for LSU, 2-2 in its home games.

-- The SEC Network will have the telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- As of Friday afternoon, Alabama was favored by 13.5 at most spots for Saturday's home game vs. Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide won a 14-13 decision at Arkansas last week, but it failed to cover the number as a nine-point road favorite. The Aggies got spanked 35-20 by Ole Miss in College Station, and it wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated.

-- South Carolina is a 38-point home favorite vs. Furman. Going back to 2009, the Gamecocks are 2-4 ATS when favored by 31 points or more. This is their richest 'chalk' spot since November of 2011. The Paladins have lost four in a row against FCS competition.

-- Alabama is currently the +260 'chalk' to win the SEC at Sportsbook.ag. The next-shortest odds belong to Mississippi St. (+280), Georgia (+320), Ole Miss (+350) and Auburn (+400). The longshots include Missouri (35/1), Kentucky (40/1), Florida (50/1), LSU (55/1) and South Carolina (65/1).

-- Arkansas is going to clip somebody soon and it might happen Saturday in Little Rock as a 3.5-point underdog. The Razorbacks have covered the spread in five straight outings.

-- I have no problem with the way the end of the Florida-LSU game went down. With the final seconds ticking off, the referee stopped the clock because UF players were wisely making it difficult for LSU's offensive linemen to get up off the ground to get set for a spike to stop the clock. I'm just not sure we've seen it officiated like that before, have we? I'm sure Gary Andersen was perplexed when he saw what happened. In a similar situation in Wisconsin's game at Arizona St. last year, the Badgers were unable to get the clock stopped with a spike play because ASU players weren't allowing Wisconsin's o-linemen to get up. The Badgers were in range for about a 35-yard field goal that would've allowed them to get out of Tempe with a victory.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Notes - Week 8

October 17, 2014

Week 7 Recap

Bettors saw their nice share of shootouts in Week 7, especially in the late afternoon games on Saturday. In particular, Baylor outlasted TCU 60-53 and Notre Dame held off North Carolina 50-43 in the midday matchups. According to our numbers, the ‘over’ went 27-25-1 in matchups with FBS schools.

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The ‘under’ went 3-1 in the four head-to-head ACC matchups in Week 7 and one school that continues to help this cause is Louisville. The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 this season and that number could improve this weekend as they meet N.C. State at home. The total opened at 50 ½ and has already seen ‘under’ money. Miami, Fl. and North Carolina played in non-conference games shootouts last week and both of those outcomes resulted in ‘over’ winners.

The Big Ten watched ‘over’ go 3-2 last Saturday and most of the results were clear-cut. Michigan State (5-1) and Ohio State (4-1) are the best ‘over’ clubs while Northwestern (see below) has been an automatic ‘under’ play in the first-half of the season.

There were some close calls for total bettors in the Big 12 last week and few outcomes could’ve easily went the other way. A late touchdown in the Iowa State-Toledo game helped the ‘over’ cash while a game-winning 55-yard field goal in the West Virginia-Texas Tech matchup prevented overtime and a winning ‘under’ ticket.

Despite having three totals listed at 66 or higher last week, the offensive juggernauts of the Pac-12 didn’t deliver as the ‘under’ produced a 4-0 record. Bettors expecting California and Washington State to light up the scoreboard again were disappointed. The pair combined for 117 in Week 6 but just 24 points last weekend. Stanford (5-0) and Washington (5-1) continue to be golden for ‘under’ bettors.

The ‘under’ went 4-2 in the SEC last weekend and the best bet this season has been playing the ‘under’ in Ole Miss games (5-1). The Rebels stifled Texas A&M 35-20 on the road in Week 7 and the combined 55 points never threatened the closing number of 64. This Saturday, Ole Miss hosts Tennessee and this is the lowest total (46.5) that the Rebels have seen this season.

Streaks to Watch

Under 6-0
San Diego State – Aztecs host Hawaii
Northwestern – Wildcats host Nebraska

Under 5-0
Stanford – Cardinal visit Arizona State

Big 12 Shootouts

As mentioned above, the Big 12 caught some extra attention as Baylor and TCU put up the most points in game between a pair of AP top-10 schools since 1936. The Bears have been known to light up the scoreboard but the Horned Frogs exploding was a bit of a surprise.

We asked VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos to weigh in on the Big 12 and touch on three games for Week 8, two of them including the aforementioned teams.

Baylor at West Virginia (80.5)
“I'm really not surprised to see the number open on the Baylor-West Virginia game where it did. These two teams have played some crazy games the last two seasons (63-70, 73-42) but it's very difficult to post numbers this high and get two-way action. I did make the number slightly higher at 83, and I think you'll see it close nearer to that number than the opener of 78. Baylor averages 87 plays per game on the road and WVU averages 81 plays per game at home so we're expected to see nearly 170 offensive snaps in this contest. With both teams averaging over 6 yards per play this season, that would produce over 1,000 yards of total offense and lead us to a total in the 80's. Some things to note here though, this Baylor defense is better than the two previous editions and the Bears are actually averaging nearly a yard per play less than last season. However, on the flip side, this WVU offense is much better than the last two year's editions and the Mountaineers are averaging nearly a yard per play more than last season. “

Kansas at Texas Tech (58.5)
“I'm surprised at the movement upward in the Kansas game as I see little reason to expect too much of an improvement when changing coaches in the middle of the season. I have the Jayhawks projected for just more than 300+ yards of offense in this game and if this game goes OVER the heavy lifting will have to be done by the Red Raiders. But with Texas Tech off a heart wrenching max effort vs WVU last week how much energy and focus will they have to face the lowly Jayhawks? This number was bet up based solely on the expected pace of the Red Raiders but I worry about their motivation and mental state in an obvious flat spot for them.”

Oklahoma State at TCU (62)
“I think the TCU game from last week was an outlier. That's not the type of game that TCU HC Patterson wants to get involved with but game dynamics and the flow of the game swept up the Horned Frogs and the game became an up-n-down shootout. I wouldn't expect that pace and style to continue this week especially since it didn't result in a win for the Horned Frogs. OSU has played up-tempo but they don't have the dynamic offense of year's past and I would expect the TCU defense to control the pace of this game. With QB Boykin hurting a bit, expect a return to the ground game from TCU, and Patterson has done a very good job of prepping his team for this OSU offense. TCU returns 8 starters to a defense that held OSU to 24 points and 2.7 yards per rush last year.”

James Manos (63%, +1212) continues to cash college winners on VegasInsider.com!

Line Moves

VI Totals Expert James Manos analyzes line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories. I provide some quick thoughts and you can see from the last few weeks that Manos has a solid pulse on the totals market.

Week 8

1) Correct Sharp Movement – Kansas State-Oklahoma Under
This game opened 61 ½ and dropped to 55 as of Friday evening. The Sooners have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their six games but they haven’t faced a defense like Kansas State, which is ranked second in the Big 12 in both yards (315.8) and points allowed (21 PPG).

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Michigan State-Indiana Under
The sharps bet the Spartans ‘under’ last week and they watched Michigan State go ‘over’ once again, now 5-1 this season. Question marks surrounding Indiana’s offense, which lost another quarterback to injury.

3) Public Movement – Baylor-West Virginia Over
See Above

4) Market Manipulation – Georgia Tech-North Carolina Over
This line opened 69, dropped to 67 ½ and spiked back up to 70 ½ all over a two-day span. As of Friday, it’s back to 68 ½ points. North Carolina has the worst defense (43.3 PPG) in the ACC but as most of you know, Georgia Tech takes its time running the football. Two years ago in Chapel Hill, G-Tech defeated UNC 68-50 in a wild shootout.

Listed below are all of the Week 8 total moves by 3.5 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday evening.

Week 8 Moves

Rotation Open Current

Western Michigan at Bowling Green 67.5 71

Georgia at Arkansas 61.5 54.5

Texas A&M at Alabama 58.5 63.5

Clemson at Boston College 51.5 45

Kansas State at Oklahoma 61.5 55

Utah State at Colorado State 51.5 55

Kansas at Texas Tech 54.5 58.5

Nebraska at Northwestern 49.5 54.5

Kentucky at LSU 49.5 53

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

17- 12 - 1........................*****

12 - 12..............................DOUBLE PLAY

10- 13...............................TRIPLE PLAY

1 - 9........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/17/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail

10/16/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

10/14/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/11/14 16-*30-*1 34.78% -*8500 Detail

10/10/14 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

10/09/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 56-*69-*3 44.80% -*9950

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, October 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Syracuse - 12:00 PM ET Syracuse -6 500
Wake Forest -

Kansas State - 12:00 PM ET Kansas State +7 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Oklahoma -

South Florida - 12:00 PM ET Tulsa +2.5 500
Tulsa -

Baylor - 12:00 PM ET Baylor -8 500
West Virginia -

Tulane - 12:00 PM ET Central Florida -18.5 500
Central Florida -

Western Kentucky - 12:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic +3.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Florida Atlantic -

Texas-San Antonio - 12:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -12 500 LIGHTS OUT
Louisiana Tech -

Iowa - 12:00 PM ET Iowa +4.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Maryland -

Purdue - 12:00 PM ET Purdue +12 500
Minnesota -

Virginia - 12:30 PM ET Virginia +3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Duke -

Western Michigan - 2:00 PM ET Western Michigan +3 500
Bowling Green -

Akron - 2:00 PM ET Akron -3 500
Ohio -

Eastern Michigan - 3:00 PM ET Massachusetts -14 500 *****
Massachusetts -

Appalachian State - 3:00 PM ET Troy -7 500 *****
Troy -

UCLA - 3:30 PM ET California +7 500
California -

Michigan State - 3:30 PM ET Indiana +16 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Indiana -

North Carolina State - 3:30 PM ET Louisville -19.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Louisville -

Clemson - 3:30 PM ET Clemson -4.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Boston College -

Texas A&M - 3:30 PM ET Texas A&M +13.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Alabama -

New Mexico - 3:30 PM ET Air Force -7 500
Air Force -

Ball State - 3:30 PM ET Central Michigan -10.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Central Michigan -

Army - 3:30 PM ET Army -3 500
Kent State -

Alabama-Birmingham - 3:30 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham -1.5 500
Middle Tennessee -

Cincinnati - 3:30 PM ET Southern Methodist +13 500
Southern Methodist -

Kansas - 3:30 PM ET Texas Tech -13 500 *****
Texas Tech -

Rutgers - 3:30 PM ET Rutgers +21 500 *****
Ohio State -

Georgia - 4:00 PM ET Arkansas +3 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Arkansas -

Oklahoma State - 4:00 PM ET Texas Christian -11.5 500 *****
Texas Christian -

San Jose State - 4:00 PM ET San Jose State -3 500
Wyoming -

New Mexico State - 5:00 PM ET Idaho -5.5 500
Idaho -

Miami (Ohio) - 5:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +14 500
Northern Illinois -

Colorado - 6:00 PM ET Colorado +20.5 500 *****
Southern California -

Marshall - 6:00 PM ET Florida International +21.5 500 *****
Florida International -

[Kaptain]

gl BUM...thanks my Brudda

[StarDust Bum]

Good Luck back at ya Kapt.......

[StarDust Bum]

My Evening Rated Games:



Marshall - 6:00 PM ET Florida International +21.5 500 ******
Florida International -

Missouri - 7:00 PM ET Florida -5.5 500
Florida -

Tennessee - 7:00 PM ET Tennessee +16 500 *****
Mississippi -

Georgia Tech - 7:00 PM ET North Carolina -2 500 TRIPLE PLAY
North Carolina -

Southern Mississippi - 7:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi +8 500
North Texas -

Utah State - 7:00 PM ET Colorado State -5 500
Colorado State -

Georgia State - 7:30 PM ET South Alabama -19.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
South Alabama -

Kentucky - 7:30 PM ET Louisiana State -11.5 500
Louisiana State -

Nebraska - 7:30 PM ET Northwestern +6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Northwestern -

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Florida State -8 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Florida State -

Iowa State - 8:00 PM ET Texas -11.5 500
Texas -

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Washington +21 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Oregon -

Nevada - 10:15 PM ET Nevada +11 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Brigham Young -

Stanford - 10:30 PM ET Arizona State +3.5 500 *****
Arizona State -

Hawaii - 10:30 PM ET Hawaii +8 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Diego State -

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD: RATED PLAYS

21- 14 - 2........................*****

12 - 16..............................DOUBLE PLAY

12- 18...............................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 13........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/18/14 16-*30-*1 34.78% -*8500 Detail

10/17/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail

10/16/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

10/14/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/11/14 16-*30-*1 34.78% -*8500 Detail

10/10/14 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

10/09/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 72-*99-*4 42.11% -*18450