The Bum's October College Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD: RATED PLAYS

21- 14 - 2........................*****

14 - 17..............................DOUBLE PLAY

13 - 20...............................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 13........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/23/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail

10/21/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/18/14 16-*30-*1 34.78% -*8500 Detail

10/17/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail

10/16/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

10/14/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/11/14 16-*30-*1 34.78% -*8500 Detail

10/10/14 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

10/09/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 75-*102-*4 42.37% -*18600

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, October 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Oregon vs. California
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears (+17.5, 79)

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota threw a career-high six touchdown passes at California two years ago and the Heisman Trophy candidate will return to California's Memorial Stadium for the first time since that performance when the No. 7 Ducks face the Golden Bears in a Pac-12 game Friday night. Mariota will also attempt to remain error free in the interception department as he has thrown 238 consecutive passes without being picked off, a streak that dates back to last season. The streak is the second longest in conference history behind the 353 Mariota made without an interception during his first two years.

California also has a gifted signal caller in Jared Goff, who owns the second-best quarterback rating in the Pac-12 behind Mariota and has thrown 24 touchdown passes against four interceptions while eclipsing the 300-yard barrier in five straight games. Bryce Treggs and Kenny Lawler continue to be solid options for Goff at the wide receiver position, but Stephen Anderson appears to be gaining favor as well, catching at least four passes in each of the last four games. Mariota will likely continue looking in the direction of wide receiver Devon Allen, the NCAA defending champion in the 110 hurdles who has six touchdown receptions.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1. LINE: Oregon -17.5

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Cal +17 before money came in forcing a slight jump to +17.5. The total has seen a slight change as well, opening at 79.5 before dropping to 79.

INJURY REPORT: Oregon - WR Keanon Lowe (Ques-Hamstring) Cal - WR Trevor Davis (Out-Head)

WEATHER FORECAST: Clear skies and mild temperatures are expected for the game. At kickoff the temperature will be 71°F but will quickly drop to 60°F by the fourth quarter.

ABOUT OREGON (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12): The Ducks and Golden Bears have played the same two teams in their last two games. Oregon beat a solid UCLA squad by 12 and followed up with a 35-point victory last weekend against Washington, while Cal lost to the Huskies by 24 and was edged by two points last weekend against the Bruins. Oregon running back Royce Freeman continues to dominate, rushing for at least 100 yards in the last two games, owning 11 touchdowns and sitting within 76 rushing yards of breaking the freshman program for a season.

ABOUT CALIFORNIA (4-3, 2-3): The Golden Bears will definitely need to improve on defense if they expect to keep up with the Ducks. California enters the game giving up an average of 38.4 points, which ranks 117th out of the 125 FBS teams. One of the bright spots was safety Griffin Piatt, the team’s leading tackler who also has a team-high three interceptions, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury against Washington.

TRENDS:

*Ducks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 7-3-1 in Golden Bears last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
*Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
*Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 55.3 percent of users are taking the Ducks -17.5 with 53.5 percent of the community taking the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, October 24


Defense the culprit for Boise State's over trend

After opening the season with an over/under record of 1-2, Boise State has since gone over the total in every game. The big reason for their sudden surge of overs is the Broncos defense.

Boise's defense allowed a mere 14 points per game through their first three contests, but that number has skyrocketed to 35.25 ppg over their last four.

BYU will visit Boise dealing a current total of 58.


Under trending when South Alabama takes field

Though they have been doing it relatively quiet, the South Alabama Jaguars have been one of the hottest under plays in college football. Dating back to last season, the Jaguars have a 1-9-1 over/under record.

The Jaguars have averaged a mere 25 points during that span, but the defense has only allowed 21 ppg during those 11 games.

South Alabama will host Troy with the total set at 54.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, October 24


After rocky start, USF perfect versus the spread

Since covering only once of their first three games, the USF Bulls have gone on to cover their last four in a row. The Bulls closed as the favorites and the dogs twice during those four games and have covered their games by an average of seven points.

USF is currently a 10.5-point road dog against Cincinnati Friday.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Friday's games

Troy is 1-6 after 53-14 home loss last week; longtime coach Blakeney is on his way out after 24 years. Trojans are 1-2 as road dogs; four of their six losses are by 17+ points. Troy beat South Alabama 34-33/31-10 last two years; USA had 630 TY in LY's loss. Favorites covered five of six Jaguar games; USA is 3-1 as favorite this year, winning by 10-24-26-3 points. Sun Belt home favorites are 6-9 vs spread in conference play.

South Florida had scored 17 or less points five games in row before they rallied from 27-7 halftime deficit to win 38-30 at Tulsa last week. USF is 6-1 as road dogs under Taggart, 2-0 this year. Cincinnati had allowed an average of 48.3 ppg in losing previous three games before 41-3 win last week at SMU. Underdogs covered seven of last nine USF games, three of last five here. AAC home favorites are 4-7 vs spread in conference play.

Home side won last two BYU-Boise games; Cougars lost 7-6 in last visit here, thanks to -5 turnover ratio. BYU lost QB Hill for year; they've lost last three games, allowing 36 ppg, with two of those three at home. BYU is 6-2 in last eight games as a road dog. Mountain West non-conference favorites are 3-4 vs spread, 2-2 at home. Boise State scored 88 points in winning its last two games- they're 2-1 as home favorites this season.

Oregon won last five games with Cal, covering last three (average score of 53-16 in last three); Ducks scored 87 points in winning their last two games- they're 1-1 as road favorites, winning by 7/12 at Wazzu/UCLA while allowing 30.5 ppg. This game is at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, where 49ers play; Cal territory, but not in Berkeley. Four of last five Cal games were decided by 4 or less points, but Bears allowed 46.2 ppg in those five games- they're 4-0 as an underdog this season.

Saturday's games

Top games of week

South Carolina is 1-5 vs spread this season, 0-2 on road, splitting pair of road games, winning 48-34 (-21) at Vandy, losing 45-38 at Kentucky (-4) Gamecocks are 15-10-1 as road underdogs under Spurrier. Auburn is 7-3 as home favorite under Malzahn, 3-1 this year; since '08, Tigers are 9-15 in game following a bye. Four of five Auburn wins this year are by 24+ points. Carolina allowed 450 rushing yards in last two games; even I-AA Furman ran it for 211 against them.

Last time Miss State played on road (Sept 20) they were unranked; now they're #1 in country, unchartered territory which means every team will bring their best game against them. State allowed 27.7 ppg in last three games- they're 3-1 as favorites this year. SEC home underdogs are 6-4 in conference play. Kentucky was 5-1 before losing 41-3 at LSU last week; they're 2-6-2 in last ten games as a home dog, 7-10-1 last 18 games that followed a loss.

UCLA won its three Pac-12 meetings with Colorado by average score of 49-14; Bruins are 1-6 vs spread this season, 1-2 as road favorites, with wins by 8-35-2 points on foreign soil- they allowed 30-42-34 points in last three games. Colorado is 3-1 as underdog this year, covering both its games as home dog, losing to ASU by 14, Oregon State by 5. Pac-12 home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in conference games this years. Buffs gave up seven TD passes to USC's Kessler last week.

Oregon State is 19-7 vs spread in its last 26 games as road dogs, 0-1 this year (lost 35-10 at USC); only twice in its last 16 games with Stanford have Beavers lost by more than 8 points. OSU lost its last four games vs Stanford (1-3 vs spread)- they lost last three visits to Farm by 4-38-8 points. Cardinal lost two of last three games, scored 20 or less points in three of last four- they're 20-16 in last 36 games as home favorite, 2-1 so far this season.

Lane Kiffin returns to Knoxville (he coached Tennessee to 7-6 record in 2009, then bolted to USC) as Alabama's OC; Crimson Tide won 59-0 at home over Texas A&M last week, but scored 17-14 points in previous two games- they're 2-1 on road this season, winning by 1-10 points with loss at Ole Miss. Young Vols lost last four I-A games, scoring 9-3 in last two; they're 3-10 in last 13 games as a home dog. Bama ran ball for total of only 234 yards in two road games.

Michigan State won five of last six games with Michigan, with four of five wins by 14+ points; favorites are 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Wolverines lost last three visits here, by 23-14-6 points; faves are 4-1-1 in their last six trips to East Lansing. Michigan lost three of its last four games- they gained total of 256 yards in 18-13 win over Penn State last week and covered once in last six games. Oregon/Nebraska are only two teams to hold Michigan State under 45 points this year.

Ole Miss covered its last nine visits to LSU, but lost five of last six SU, with all five losses by 7 or less points. LSU is 9-3 SU in last 12 series games, scoring 41+ in last four series wins. Rebels are 7-0 with one win by less than 15 points (Bama 23-17); they've won at Vandy/A&M, are 4-0-1 as favorites this year. LSU scored 71 points in winning last couple games since 41-7 loss at Auburn; Tigers are 2-2 as home underdog under Miles- they completed less than half their passes in last three games.

Arizona won five of its last six games with Washington State; underdogs are 9-3 vs spread in last 12 series games. Wildcats won last three trips to Pullman by 17-31-10 points, but they failed to cover last three tries as a road favorite at Wazzu. Coogs are off bye after losing three of previous four games, allowing 34+ points in all three- they scored 31+ points in three of their five losses. Arizona is 5-1 but their last five games were all decided by 7 or less points-- dogs covered all five of those games.

USC won its last three games with Utah by 16-10-9 points; Trojans are 2-1 on road this season, with all three games decided by 6 or less points (underdogs 3-0 vs spread). Utah is 5-1, winning its last two games by a total of eight points; they're back to Wilson at QB this week-- curious that they scored 26+ points in every game while being undecided at QB. Teams that beat USC scored 37-38 points; Since 2012, Trojans are 1-9 vs spread when giving points on the road.

West Virginia gave Baylor its first loss LW; home team won both their games with Oklahoma State, with Cowboys winning 55-34 here couple years ago. WVU won 30-21 at home LY. OSU QB Walsh is out for year; they're 27-56 passing in last two games, but both were on road. West Virginia won both its true road games by FG, scoring 40-37 points; they gained 456+ yards in each of last six games. State is 16-6-1 vs spread in last 23 home games, 2-1 this year.

Keep in mind Kansas State's gutty QB Waters dinged his shoulder last week at Oklahoma; he finished game but wasn't 100%. Wildcats are 5-1 in last six games with Texas, with three of last four wins by 18+ points. Longhorns lost last three visits to Little Apple by 18-25-3. Texas is 3-4; its last two games were decided by total of 8 points- they won 23-0 at Kansas (-12) in their only true road game. K-State covered its last four games- they won last three, scoring 44.7 ppg.

Ohio State won/covered its last four games, scoring 50+ points in every game; Buckeyes won 52-24 (-7) at Maryland in its only true away game. Penn State scored total of 19 points in losing its last two games; since '06, they're 2-4-1 as home underdogs. OSU assistant coach Johnson was longtime aide at Penn State. Big 14 home underdogs are 3-4 vs spread in conference games. Penn State ran ball for 64 or less yards in four of six games; Akron/UMass are only teams they ran ball for 100+ against.

Arizona State QB Kelly's foot is said to be OK; he should play here after backup Bercovici did yeoman work in 2+ games as backup. ASU is 3-0 on road, scoring 44.7 ppg, allowing 27 ppg. Sun Devils won eight in row vs Washington, covering all eight (were favored in 7 of 8). Huskies allowed 314 rushing yards in LY's game. ASU beat USC/Stanford in last two games; they had allowed 200+ rushing yards in four straight games before holding Cardinal to 76 in last game.

Notes on rest of the card

-- Northern Illinois is 12-1 in last 13 games with Eastern Michigan, winning last six meetings (5-1 vs spread). Eagles are 7-13 in their last 20 games as a home underdog.

-- Clemson is 5-2 but its last two wins are by total of 10 points; they’re 5-3 in last eight games as home favorites. Syracuse won both its road games this year but was favored in both games- they're 4-6 as underdogs under Shafer. .

-- Underdogs covered four of last five Minnesota-Illinois games, with Gophers winning nine of last 12, including last four in Champaign, by 14-4-7-26 points.

-- Favorites covered six of last eight Akron-Ball State games, with Cardinals winning last four games, taking last two here 37-30/23-17. This is Akron’s last Saturday game; their last four games are all on Tuesdays.

-- Central Michigan-Buffalo haven’t met since '09; Chippewas split four road games but lost as 10-point home favorites last week. Buffalo is 1-4 vs I-A teams despite scoring 31.4 ppg in those games; they’ve already fired their coach.

-- Western Michigan won three of last four games with Ohio, with wins by 21-7-13 points; Bobcats lost 41-20/23-10 in last two trips to WMU- they lost last three road games, by 17-30-18 points.

-- Favorites covered four of last five BC-Wake games, with Deacons winning two of last three. Last eight series spreads before this game had all been 6 or less points. Wake covered two of last three as a home dog vs BC.

-- UCF outgained Temple 657-519 in wild 39-36 win LY in Philly, last-minute win propelled UCF QB Bortles up NFL draft boards. Temple allowed total of 41 points in its four wins; they allowed 31 in each of their two losses.

-- Lot of distractions at North Carolina with the academic scandal becoming more public. Tar Heels won/covered last four games with Virginia by average score of 38-14, winning last two here 37-13/44-10. UNC allowed 43+ points in four of last five games (34 in fifth).

-- Pitt (+10.5) lost 21-10 at Georgia Tech LY, with Tech running for 276 yards; Panthers snapped 3-game skid with win over Va Tech last week, but they lost last two home games, to Akron/Iowa.

-- Maryland is 3-0 SU on road this year; they allowed 83 points in last two games, both at home. Terps are 10-7 vs spread in last 17 games as an underdog. Wisconsin is 7-3 as home favorite under Anderson, 1-2 this year.

-- Vanderbilt is starting its 4th different QB this season vs Missouri; a freshman this time. Underdogs covered six of seven Vandy games this year; Commodores are 3-1 as an underdog, all getting double digit points.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 25


Kentucky struggling on offense, host Miss. State

Needless to say, the Kentucky Wildcats have their hands full when they host the No. 1 Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday, but there's one trend that's particularly not working in their favor.

The Wildcats have averaged just 5.1 yards per play while mustering a 35.16 third down conversion percentage so far this season.

Mississippi State is currently 14.5-point road faves with a total of 59.


It's a tale of two halves for Michigan State

Michigan State has made a habit of coming out of the gate on fire this season but letting their feet off the gas peddle as each contest progresses.

No team in the nation is averaging more points in the first half than the Spartans (30.7), but in the second half they're averaging just 16.7 points.

Michigan State hosts arch rival Michigan in Week 9 college football action Saturday, and are currently 17-point home faves with an O/U of 48.5 for the matchup.


Penalties have been killing Texas Tech

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been hurting themselves all season long, evidenced by their ranking as the second most penalized team in the country.

The Red Raiders have 71 penalties which equates for 648 yards. Texas Tech takes on Texas Christian in Fort Worth Saturday.

The No. 10 Horned Frogs are currently 22.5-point home faves with an O/U of 71.5.


Washington State heavily relying on the pass

When you face off against Washington State, you're already aware of what to expect - a lot of action through the air.

The Cougars have thrown the ball 78 percent of the time this season, accumulating 489 passing yards per game in the process. Both are good enough for tops in the nation.

Washington state plays host to No. 14 Arizona Saturday. The Sun Devils are presently 3-point road faves with the total set at 61 for the contest.


Injuries forcing adjustments to Clemson's gameplan

The injury bug has hit Clemson hard this year, and as a result, they've had to make quite a few unexpected changes to their gameplan.

"It's just one of those years," said offensive coordinator Chad Morris. "It's been two weeks in a row now that during the first two drives of the game, you essentially lose a big part of your plan."

"So, you kind of scramble, adjust and make do," Morris said.

The No. 20 Tigers host Syracuse Saturday, and are currently 14.5-point home favorites for the matchup. The total is presently sitting at 47.5.

[StarDust Bum]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 9

Looking to wager on the elite teams in college football this weekend? Don't have time to handicap every Top 25 matchup? Put your mind at ease and just cheat - with our NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet featuring all of Week 9's biggest games.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at (16) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-20)
*Rutgers allowed J.T. Barrett to amass 368 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns last week. The No.98 defense will need to adjust quickly for Tommy Armstrong who has thrown for 1546 yards while adding 482 on the ground.

*An effective run game has been the key to ensuring Nebraska's success since Bo Pelini's takeover of the program. During Pelini's tenure the Cornhuskers are 18-0 when they rush for 300 or more yards do. Nebraska is averaging 293.6 ypg this season.


(24) Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini (+5.5)
*Despite allowing a season-high 38 points last week, Minnesota still ranks tied for 29th in the FBS with 21.4 points surrendered per contest and is tied for seventh in total takeaways with 18, including a Big Ten-leading 11 interceptions.

*If there is one thing Illinois does well, it's create big plays. The Fighting Illini have tallied 43 plays of 20 or more yards from scrimmage this season, while vaulting themselves into No.20 in the nation for 30 plus yard plays.


Texas Longhorns at (11) Kansas State Wildcats (-9.5)
*Despite getting torched by Iowa State, the Longhorns defense still ranks No.5 in passing defense and No.10 in yards allowed per play nationally.

*Even though the Wildcats offensive line may not have kept Jake Waters off of his back, the line played well last week. "What I was pleased with is that we only had one penalty," coach Bill Snyder says. " In reality, they were not penalized and being in that environment down there with so much noise, it is easy to get discombobulated with the cadence and snap counts and communication."


(25) West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys (Pick'em)
*WVU WR Kevin White has a school-record seven straight games of 100 or more receiving yards, the longest active streak in the nation.

*Through seven games, opposing offenses have reached the red zone 25 times against Oklahoma State, but they have only converted 10 of those trips into touchdowns. That ranks second in the Big 12 and 12th nationally.


Florida Atlantic Owls at (22) Marshall Thundering Herd (-28)
*The Owls have been a different team away from home this season. FAU is 3-0 at home and has outscored opponents by 40 points (13.3 ppg), compared to going 0-4 on the road and being blown out by 118 points (28.5 ppg).

*No team in the nation has been pummeling opponents quite like Marshall. The Thundering Herd is beating opponents by an average margin if 29.2 ppg, which is tops in the country.


(1) Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (+14.5)
*Dan Mullen seems happy to have gotten a bye week when they did. "It is not about one game. It is the cumulative effect of playing in [the SEC]," says the coach. "I think our guys took advantage of the bye week, because they know now we have to play six straight to end the season."

*If the Wildcats want to compete with the nations top team, they will need to improve an offense that averages a poor 5.1 ypp and 35.16 third down conversion percentage.


Michigan Wolverines at (5) Michigan State Spartans (-17)
*After getting beaten up by the Spartans last year, the Wolverines know they need to fix things. "Those negative rushing yards last year [at MSU] weren't just on Devin [Gardner]," Brady Hoke says. "When a guy gets sacked, you're turning some people loose. And also, he's got to get rid of the ball. There's a rhythm to it."

*The Spartans have been coming out to quick leads and coasting in the second half of games. No team is averaging more points in the first half than Michigan State (30.7), but in the second half the team is tallying 16.7 points.


Texas Tech Red Raiders at (10) TCU Horned Frogs (-22.5)
*Discipline has not been the Red Raiders strong suit as they are the second most penalized team in the nation. So far this season, Texas Tech has 71 penalties for 648 yards.

*Under new co-coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie, TCU has the nation's most improved offense in both total yards (+192.9 ypg) and scoring (+20.1 ppg) from last season.


(15) Arizona Wildcats at Washington State Cougars (+2.5)
*"They will run it just enough to keep you honest and they did against us last year," Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez says about Washington State. " They will throw the ball to any one of the guys on any part of the field; they will throw it deep, short, back or on whatever down it is."

*When you face the Cougars you certainly know what you are getting. The Cougars throw the ball 78.04 percent of the time while accumulating 490.0 passing ypg, both tops in the nation.


Syracuse Orange at (20) Clemson Tigers (-14.5)
*The Orange, who are playing in the state of South Carolina for the first time in school history, lost to the Tigers 49-14 at the Carrier Dome last season in the first ever meeting between the programs.

*The injury bug has hit Clemson hard this year and has caused some change ups in their game plan. "“It’s just one of those years,” offensive coordinator Chad Morris said. "Two weeks in a row now that the first two drives of the game you essentially lose a big part of your plan. “So, you kind of scramble, adjust and make do.”


(4) Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers (+17.5)
*Since the start of the 2007 season, when coach Nick Saban arrived, the Crimson Tide have held opponents to 10 points or fewer 51 times.

*Only two teams in the nation have allowed more sacks per game than the Volunteers who have watched their quarterback hit the turf 4.2 times per game.


(3) Ole Miss Rebels at (23) LSU Tigers (+3.5)
*If you're talking about dominant defense this season, you must be talking about Ole Miss. The Rebels lead the nation in scoring defense (10.6 ppg) touchdowns allowed (seven) and interceptions (15).

*LSU will return home for the first time in almost a month for their biggest game this year. "After talking to several old-timers about it, I think Tiger Stadium is going to be louder than ever on Saturday," said LSU football legend Jerry Stovall.


South Carolina Gamecocks at (6) Auburn Tigers (-19.5)
*The defensive line was expected to dip a bit for the Gamecocks with the loss of Jadevon Clowney, but it's been injuries that has made the group ineffective. "Right now it's open," said South Carolina defensive line coach Deke Adams. "We're going to see who has the best week of practice."

*Auburn may be getting a key piece of their defense back after S Jermaine Whitehead was reinstated to the team. The senior has been a three year starter for the Tigers, but was suspended for undisclosed reasons earlier this season.


(12) Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (+13.5)
*Ohio State has scored at least 50 points in four consecutive games which is a program record. You can thank J.T. Barrett who has thrown for 17 touchdowns and one interception during that span.

*No team in the nation is better than Penn State at shutting down the run game. Through six games, teams have only averaged 60.8 rushing yards and one touchdown per game against the Nittany Lions.


(21) USC Trojans at (19) Utah Utes (Pick'em)
*Injuries have been hitting the Trojans hard this season, but maybe none hurt more than Adoree Jackson. An injured hip flexor has limited Jackson in the past two games, who is both a starting cornerback, one of their better receivers and their punt returner.

*If there is one thing the Utes can do, it's get after the passer. Utah sacks the opposing quarterback on 12.72 percent of snaps, which is almost a full point ahead of second in the nation.


(14) Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington Huskies (+3)
*The Sun Devils are boasting a quick strike offense, that points to them not needing possession. Arizona State is averaging 37.4 ppg (No.17 in nation), but have the lowest average possession time per game (21:25).

*The Huskies have not been ignoring the special teams game this season. Washington opponents have had just eight punt return yards on six returns this season for an average of 1.33 yards per return.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet

October 23, 2014


**BYU at Boise State**

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Boise State (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 58. Gamblers can take the Cougars on the money line for a +240 return (risk $100 to win $240).

-- BYU (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) has lost three in a row, including a pair of gut-wrenching defeats in the last two weeks. On Oct. 9 at Central Florida, Bronco Mendenhall's team lost a 31-24 decision in overtime. Then last week in Provo, the Cougars allowed three separate double-digit leads to get away in a 42-35 loss to Nevada. They enjoyed a 28-13 advantage at halftime, only to lose outright as 10-point home favorites.

-- In his second start since replacing the injured Taysom Hill, Christian Stewart played his best game against the Wolf Pack. Stewart completed 39-of-63 passes for 408 yards and four TDs without an interception. Mitch Mathews hauled in 16 catches for 182 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- BYU has failed to cover the spread in five straight games.

-- BYU will welcome two of its best players back into the starting lineup this week. Jamaal Williams didn't play against Nevada and left the UCF game after his first carry due to a sprained ankle. Williams has been upgraded to 'probable' this week, however. The junior RB has only played in four games (we won't count his one carry for one yard in Orlando), rushing for 396 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Senior safety Craig Bills, the team's leading returning tackler from 2013, is also ready to go after suffering a concussion at UCF and missing the loss to Nevada. It's a good thing that Williams is returning because two back-up RBs are unlikely to play on the smurf turf. Adam Hine, who has 55 rushing yards on 19 carries, is listed as 'doubtful,' while Algernon Brown is out with an ankle injury. Brown has rushed 30 times for 158 yards and has also caught 11 balls for 101 yards. WR Devon Blackmon is also 'doubtful.' Blackmon, the juco transfer who began his career at Oregon, has been an immense disappointment. He has just three receptions for 58 yards.

-- Boise St. beat Fresno St. by a 37-27 count last Friday, but it never threatened to cover the number as a 17.5-point home favorite. Jay Ajayi ran for 158 yards and two TDs on 30 carries and also had four receptions for 37 yards. QB Grant Hedrick threw for 190 yards and one TD without being intercepted. He also rushed 15 times for 56 yards.

-- Ajayi has rushed for 867 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. He has gone for 150 yards or more four times, including a season-high 219-yard effort in a 37-24 home win over Colorado St. Ajayi also has 35 catches for 317 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Hedrick has a great completion percentage (71.9%), but he has been turnover prone with a mediocre 8/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hedrick has 1,831 passing yards, in addition to 260 rushing yards for two scores.

-- BYU has the nation's fifth-ranked run defense, limiting opponents to 97.1 yards rushing per game. -- The 'over' is 5-2 overall for BYU, cashing in four consecutive games. The Cougars have seen the 'over' go 2-1 in their three road assignments.

-- The 'over' is 4-3 overall for BSU, 2-1 in its home games.

-- When these schools met last year, BYU collected a 37-20 win as a 6.5-point home favorite. In the last encounter on the blue carpet, BSU won by a 7-6 count thanks to a defensive stop on a two-point conversion attempt by the Cougars after scoring with 3:37 remaining. The Broncos failed to cover as six-point home 'chalk' because they came up empty on five fourth-down conversion attempts inside of BYU territory.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Oregon at California**

-- This game will be played in Santa Clara, which is 51 miles south of Berkeley. As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Oregon (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) listed as an 18-point favorite with a total of 79.5. Bettors can back the Bears to win outright for a +700 payout (risk $100 to win $700).

-- California (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) has dropped back-to-back games after winning four of its first five. Sonny Dykes's squad dropped a 36-34 decision to UCLA last week, but it did hook up its gambling supporters as a 6.5-point home underdog. The 70 combined points stayed 'under' the 72.5-point total.

-- In the loss to the Bruins, Cal QB Jared Goff was intercepted by Marcus Rios in the final minute. UCLA had taken the lead on a short field goal with 3:40 remaining. Goff threw for 303 yards and a pair of TDs and the last-minute pick was his only one of the day.

-- Goff has connected on 64.8 percent of his passes for 2,482 yards with a 24/4 TD-INT ratio. The true sophomore is second in the Pac-12 and sixth in the nation in passing yards.

-- Cal WR Trevor Davis suffered a head/neck injury in the loss to UCLA and is 'out' vs. Oregon. Davis has made 21 receptions for 360 yards and four TDs.

-- Cal compiled an abysmal 1-5 spread record as a home underdog in Dykes's first year in 2013. The spread cover vs. UCLA last week was the first home 'dog spot of this season.

-- Oregon QB Marcus Mariota is enjoying a spectacular season. He has completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,957 yards and 19 TDs without an interception. Mariota also has 289 rushing yards and five TDs, in addition to catching a 26-yard TD pass. He completed 24-of-33 throws for 336 yards and two TDs in last week's 45-20 win over Washington. The Ducks took the cash as 21-point favorites.

-- Royce Freeman rushed for a season-high 169 yards and four TDs on 29 carries against the Huskies. For the season, Freeman has rushed for a team-best 636 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC.

-- According to Friday's edition of The Oregonian, WR Keanon Lowe remains 'questionable' this week with a hamstring injury. Lowe suffered the injury two weeks ago in a win at UCLA. He has 17 receptions for 266 yards and four TDs.

-- Oregon owns a 4-3 spread record in seven games as a road favorite on Mark Helfrich's watch. The Ducks failed to cover in a 38-31 win at Washington St. on Sept. 20, but they did take the money in a 42-30 win at UCLA.

-- Oregon has won five in a row over Cal in this rivalry, going 4-1 ATS. The 'under' is on a 6-1 roll in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these schools. When they squared off in Eugene last year, Oregon captured a 55-16 win as a 38.5-point home 'chalk.' Mariota threw a pair of TD passes and ran for another score.

-- The 'over' is 4-3 overall for the Bears, 2-2 in their home games. The 'over' had hit in four consecutive games for Cal until the 'under' appeared in its last two outings. This is the highest total Cal has seen all year, with the previous high (72.5) coming last week vs. UCLA.

-- Totals have been an overall split (3-3-1) for the Ducks, who have seen the 'under' go 1-0-1 in their two road assignments. This is Oregon's second-highest tally of the season. When the Ducks lost 31-24 to Arizona at home, the 55 combined points dipped way 'under' the 81.5-point tally.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports 1.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 9

October 22, 2014


Game of the Week

Michigan State (-17) vs. Michigan - 3:30 PM EST
After an early 17-14 second quarter deficit to Indiana, the Spartans were able to get on track to the tune of 42 unanswered points in the 56-17 blowout win. The Hoosiers, playing with their third string quarterback, were completely outmatched against this MSU defense. Hoosiers' QB Diamont completed just 5-of-15 passes for 11 yards as Indiana limped to just 224 total yards (75 of which came on one TD run) and 7 first downs. It was just the type of dominating win that the Spartans needed after back-to-back close calls against Nebraska and Purdue. MSU, meanwhile, did whatever it wanted on offense, gaining 662 yards and achieving 30 first downs. It was the fifth time in seven games that the Spartans scored 45+ points and Sparty now has the 3rd ranked scoring offense in the nation. This week they return to East Lansing for the all-important rivalry game with in-state rival Michigan.

Michigan was off last week after ending a three-game skid with a home win over Penn State. It'll be a matchup of strengths as MSU will try to get its 12-ranked rushing attack going against this Michigan run-defense that surrenders just 93.3 yards per game on the ground. The Wolves' offense will need to perform much better than the unit that has averaged just 16.5 PPG over the last four games. They'll also need to avoid costly mistakes that have plagued them throughout the year (-13 turnover ratio). This hasn't been a very close rivalry in recent past as the Spartans are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Last year MSU won 29-6 and owned a +226 yard advantage as it held Michigan to -48 total rushing yards. Michigan State is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 conference games. Michigan is just 10-23-1 ATS in its last 34 road games.

Best of the Rest

Ohio State (-13.5) @ Penn State - 8:00 PM EST
Ohio State QB Barrett is putting himself in the Heisman discussion as he has averaged 292.5 pass YPG with 17 pass TD, 3 rush TD, and just 1 INT over the last four games. OSU has outscored those four opponents 224-69, including a 56-17 blowout win over Rutgers last week. The game was over early as OSU scored early and often en route to a 35-7 halftime lead. The Buckeyes' defense suffocated the Scarlet Knights on offense, not allowing any big plays and forcing three turnovers. Rutgers' yardage total was 345, but a lot of that came in garbage time when the game was well in hand for the Bucks. OSU is playing at an extremely high level on both sides of the ball and it will take a huge effort for the Nittany Lions to come up with an upset on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are off of a bye after playing six straight games to start the season. They are off of a second consecutive loss in their last week against Michigan and are now reeling after a strong 4-0 start. Christian Hackenberg may have all the talent in the world, but he appears to be playing without confidence; mainly because the offensive line stinks and he has so few playmakers around him. Hackenberg has just 1 TD pass in the last four games and the Nittany Lions have limped to just 104 rush yards on 60 carries (1.7 YPC) in consecutive losses.

The defense continues to be outstanding as this unit held Michigan to just 256 total yards - including 64 rush yards on 2.1 YPC - and 12 first downs. The pass defense has surrendered B1G-best three TD passes this season and is allowing opposing QB's to complete just 53.8%. They'll face their toughest test to date against Barrett and this rolling OSU offense. OSU is 3-0 SU & ATS in the last three road games against the Nittany Lions, winning by an average margin of 16.3 PPG (all by 12 points or more). Last year the Buckeyes won in Columbus by 49 points and had +329 yards, +12 first downs, and +3 in turnovers. OSU is on an extraordinary run on the road with a 35-15-1 ATS record in the last 51 road games. They are also 28-12-2 ATS in the last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. Penn State is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games following a SU loss and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 home games.

Nebraska (-17.5) vs. Rutgers - 12:00 PM EST
The Huskers got off to a slow start in Evanston last week and trailed Northwestern 14-17 at halftime. They woke up in the 2nd half and put the Wildcats away with a 24-0 surge to win 38-17 in a key road win. RB Adullah rebounded after a poor performance against MSU (45 rush yards) to rush for 146 yards and 4 TD against NW. The Huskers defense limited Northwestern to just 290 total yards and frustrated Wildcats QB Siemian into just 18-of-39 completions with 0 TD and 1 INT. Northwestern RB Jackson had 99 rush yards and 2 TD in the 1st half, but Nebraska limited his impact in the 2nd half and held him to just 29 rush yards in the final two quarters. The Huskers will face a similar team this Saturday against Rutgers. Expect Nebraska to ride Abdullah against this Rutgers D that surrendered 324 rush yards on 8.1 YPC to Ohio State last week. Rutgers played well hosting its first two B1G games against Penn State (narrow three-point loss) and Michigan (two-point win) before getting absolutely blasted in its first B1G road game last week at Ohio State. A normally stout pass defense was picked apart by OSU's Barrett, who finished with 261 yards and 3 scores.

The Scarlet Knights didn't get much going on offense and the lack of playmakers on offense was apparent as QB Nova struggled to get the ball down-field and finished with just 192 pass yards despite attempting 28 passes. The three-headed rushing attack of Peoples, Goodwin, and Martin combined for 170 yards on 31 carries with 2 TD, representing the lone thing that went right for the Scarlet Knights last week. Rutgers gets another tough road test this week as it travels to Lincoln to take on the Huskers. Rutgers is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog, though they did fail to cover last week as the 20.5-point 'dog @OSU. Nebraska is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a home favorite of 14 points or more.

Minnesota (-6.5) @ Illinois - 12:00 PM EST
An ugly win is still a win and the Gophers have become accustomed to winning ugly. A week after needing a 99-yard kickoff return for TD to beat Northwestern at home, the Gophers needed a second half comeback to hold off a stiff challenge from the visiting Boilermakers. Purdue held a 38-29 lead in the 3rd quarter before Minny scored the final 10 points to escape with a victory. Three different players scored a rushing TD as Minnesota romped for 285 rush yards on 5.5 YPC while QB Leidner was an opportunistic with 2 TD passes on just 9 completions. It's a bit concerning that the Gophers were so ceding against the Boilers offense as they allowed 451 total yards, including 298 rush yards on 8.5 YPC. Minnesota yielded a number of big plays, including a 55-yard TD pass and a 42-yard TD run. Still, the 39-38 win might not have been the most impressive, but Minnesota stands alone in first place in the B1G West as it heads to Champaign this weekend.

Illinois used part of their bye week to decide between Aaron Bailey and Reilly O'Toole for starting QB, and it appears that both will split time against Minnesota. Credit the Illini for playing the Badgers tougher than anyone really expected in their last game; especially considering they were playing their first game without star QB Wes Lunt. Illinois jumped out to a 14-7 lead - before the Badgers scored the next 31 points - and then cut a 24-point deficit to just 10 in the 4th quarter. Backup QB Riley O'Toole made a few big plays (2 TD passes) and the rushing attack notched 153 yards against the Badgers. Still, despite all the "good" things that the Illini did, they were still outgained by 210 yards and allowed UW RB's Gordon & Clement to rush for 339 yards and 5 TD. This is a porous defense, and now without Lunt, the offense is not nearly as explosive. The Gophers are 7-2 SU & ATS in the last nine meetings with Illinois. They've won three straight overall (3-0 ATS) and four straight in Champaign (4-0 ATS). Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 overall and 8-1 ATS in the last nine B1G games. The Gophers are also 15-7 ATS in the last 22 as a road favorite. Illinois is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 conference games and just 5-13 ATS following a SU loss.

Wisconsin (-10.5) vs. Maryland - 12:00 PM EST
The Badgers had last week off after their 38-28 win over Illinois on October 11th. The winning margin of 10 points over Illinois is a bit misleading as the Illini scored a couple of garbage touchdowns and the Badgers had a +210 yard advantage; but the Badgers had to overcome another slow start and struggled yet again to get a passing attack going. The lack of quarterback production didn't matter against the Illini as the Badgers gored Illinois' defense for 401 rush yards on 8.5 YPC, but the Badgers will need to develop an aerial attack if they want a shot at a B1G title. Melvin Gordon had another huge day (175 rush yds, 4 TD) to continue his torrid pace of 868 rush yards and 12 TD over the past four games. Maryland has been rather lenient against the rush this season, allowing 198 rush YPG (104th nationally). The Terps will likely attempt to stack the box and not allow Gordon to dictate the pace of this game, rather make Wisconsin QB's Stave & McEvoy beat them through the air.

Defensively, the Badgers' pass defense ranks as the top unit in the B1G, allowing just 50.3% completions for 169.2 YPG with just 5 pass TD. They'll be tested against Maryland QB Brown and a talented receiving corps. CJ Brown is healthy and ready to go after a wrist injury sidelined him for part of the game last week. Despite playing with their 3rd string QB at times, the Terps were still able to get a seven-point win over the Hawkeyes. Maryland's defense surrendered 433 yards, but forced three turnovers - and returned one for a TD - in a much-needed conference victory. Maryland makes its first road trip to Madison this week where the Badgers have as much home field advantage of anyone in the country. The Badgers are 64-7 SU in their last 71 home games and they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a B1G home favorite of 10 points or more. Maryland is just 4-8 ATS as a road underdog of 10 points or more, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games overall.

Northwestern - Bye
The Wildcats have dropped back-to-back games after starting 2-0 in B1G play, but there are positives to take away. They were tied with the Gophers late @Minnesota two weeks ago before allowing a game-winning 99-yard kickoff return for TD. Last week they were leading at halftime against Nebraska before the Huskers scored the final 24 points in the game. The Wildcats will need to figure out how to add a little punch to this offense. QB Siemian has just four TD passes this season and this rushing attack is ranked 105th nationally. They have yet to reach the 30-point mark in a game and have been held to 20 points or fewer in three consecutive league games. The defense is good enough to keep Northwestern competitive against most opponents, but that will go unnoticed as long as this offensive ineptitude continues. Next up is a road trip to Iowa to try to avenge last year's seven-point overtime loss.

Iowa - Bye
The Hawkeyes had two quick touchdowns at Maryland last week and appeared to be in great position to pull off the upset - and then Maryland scored 38 of the next 45 points. QB Rudock threw for 317 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT, but he completed just 32-of-56 passes (57%) and the INT he threw was returned for a Maryland touchdown. Rudock has been forced to throw it more than he should because Iowa has trouble mustering any sort of rushing threat (90th in rush YPG). As is the case with a number of other Big Ten squads this year, a stout defense will only carry this Iowa team so far before the offense needs to pick up some slack. Iowa still controls its own destiny in the Big Ten race with key games against Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska on deck, and they'll use the bye week to work out the kinks before hosting Northwestern last week.

Purdue - Bye
Quarterback Austin Appelby has revitalized this offense that was downright putrid in 2013. He has led Purdue to three straight games of 30+ points, two of which came against the stout defenses of Michigan State and Minnesota. The Boilers took an 11-point lead into halftime against the Gophers and led by nine points late in the 3rd quarter before Minny scored the final 10 points to notch the 39-38 victory. Appleby threw three touchdown passes and the Boilers rushed for 298 yards on 8.5 YPC. Purdue has now covered six of eight games this season, including four of five as the underdog. It'll be tough for the Boilers to become bowl eligible as they need to win three of the remaining four games against Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Indiana - but the arrow is definitely pointing up for Purdue. Next up the Boilers travel to Lincoln where they'll likely be heavy 'dogs against the Huskers.

Indiana - Bye
A season-ending injury to starting QB Sudfeld pushed freshman Zander Diamont under center last week against Michigan State for the first start of his career. It did not go well as he completed just 5-of-15 passes for 11 yards. Somehow, Indiana held a 17-14 lead in the second quarter before Michigan State scored the game's final 42 points. Other than a stout offensive line that paves the way for star RB Tevin Coleman (132 yards on 15 carries against the Spartans), there isn't much to like about the direction of this team. What once looked like a promising season in Indiana has now been replaced by concern over whether Indiana will win another game this season. Next up the 3-4 Hoosiers travel to Ann Arbor to face the Wolverines.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 8 upon us.........

-- Texans are 4-8-1 vs spread in their last 13 road games.

-- Saints covered 15 of their last 20 home games.

-- Seattle is 7-3 in its last 10 games as a road favorite.

-- Colts covered nine of their last twelve road games.

-- Tampa Bay is 7-15-1 in its last 23 home games.

-- Buffalo is 8-16 vs spread in its last 24 road games.

**********


Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: What we're looking for this weekend.......

13) Back in May, who thought Eagles-Cardinals would be battle of 5-1 teams? Nick Foles comes back to Arizona as a much better player than he was for the Arizona Wildcats in college. This is Sunday’s best game.

12) LSU is a home underdog for the 5th time (2-2 in first four) in 9+ years under Les Miles; Ole Miss covered its last nine visits to Baton Rouge, but most of those were as pretty substantial underdogs.

11) Steelers scored 24 points in 2:54 Monday night against a Houston team that imploded. Indy has won five games in row and will not implode, but they’re 2-11 in last 13 games vs Pittsburgh, though this will be Luck’s first visit to Heinz Field.

10) West Virginia knocked Baylor from ranks of unbeaten last week, but now have a long road trip to Oklahoma State, which got bamboozled at TCU. OSU’s starting QB is out for the year; they’re 4-0 at home, but against all stiffs. WVU won both its true road games by three points each.

9) Oakland fired Dennis Allen when the Raiders got home from London; if the Falcons lose to Detroit across the pond, will Mike Smith get the Ziggy too? Atlanta has been playing terrible defense.

8) Mississippi State is #1 in the country, which just looks strange; they’ve got a trap game in Lexington, as a double digit favorite in Lexington, against improved Kentucky. Lot more media distractions when you’re ranked #1. Bulldogs haven’t been on road in over a month, either.

7) World Series shifts to San Francisco, where Ned Yost gets to test his magical managerial run while playing under National League rules. Yost used to manage in Milwaukee, so he’s done it before, but Billy Butler has to sit now, with no DH for three games.

6) USC has a tricky road game at Utah, which is having a hard time picking a starting QB- Utes are back to Wilson this week. Utah’s last three games were all decided by 6 or less points. Trojans allowed 26+ points in each of their last three games.

5) Rookie Zach Mettenberger gets his first start at QB for offensively-challenged Tennessee, with Houston in town after falling apart Monday night. Texans have to be really disappointed to be 3-4; they’re close to having a much better record.

4) Lane Kiffin’s going to be in Knoxville this weekend, which should have the locals out in full force. Young Vols are a 17-point home dog to Alabama, which looked really good at home last week after struggling to win 14-13 at Arkansas.

3) Ravens rallied from a 15-0 deficit to take a 16-15 at home against the Bengals in Week 1, before Cincy won it on a long pass with 5:00 left; now teams meet again in the Queen City, with Bengals on an 0-2-1 downer after their 3-0 start. Ravens are quietly 5-2; do you think they will re-sign Ray Rice if he gets reinstated?

2) South Carolina is getting 18 points at Auburn? Have to look up the last time Spurrier got 18 points in a game, has to be a decent amount of years, but his defense is sub-par this year and that’s bad news against a Malzahn team.

1) I think the Saints are going to break out and beat Green Bay Sunday night; nothing I’ve seen on TV this year endorses that opinion, just a feeling I have.

Think the Jets will beat Buffalo too, but you cannot give points with a team that’s lost its last six games.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, October 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

South Florida - 7:00 PM ET South Florida +10 500 *****
Cincinnati - Over 60 500 *****

Troy - 7:30 PM ET South Alabama -14.5 500 *****
South Alabama - Over 54 500 *****

Brigham Young - 9:00 PM ET Boise State -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Boise State - Under 56 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Oregon - 10:00 PM ET California +17.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
California - Over 78.5 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Total Notes - Week 9

October 24, 2014

Week 8 Recap

Total bettors saw a stalemate last week as the ‘over/under’ produced a 25-25-3 record. It’s rare to see three outcomes end in a push but that was the cased based on our closing numbers. Looking at the games closer, the ‘under’ was the right side in arguably two of the three games.

Nebraska 38 Northwestern 17 (Push 55)
The Wildcats led 17-14 at the break but the Cornhuskers outscored used a 24-0 run in the final two quarters to capture the win, 17 of the points coming in the fourth.

Oregon 45 Washington 20 (Push (65)
It was a little surprising that the Ducks kicked a meaningless field goal late in the fourth but it was probably the right call since it was fourth-and-goal from the 9-yard line. Some ‘over’ bettors may’ve earned wins with early numbers (64, 64.5).

San Jose State 27 Wyoming 20 (Push 47)
Likely the worst total beat of Week 8. This was a 10-10 game in the fourth quarter and seven of those points came on a fumble return. The offensive units got in gear in the final 15 minutes, wound up forcing overtime and the rest is history.

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

Including the non-conference game between Florida State and Notre Dame, the ‘under’ went 6-1 in ACC matchups last season. North Carolina’s 48-43 victory over Georgia Tech was the lone ‘over’ (67.5) to connect.

The scoreboard operators were busy in the Big Ten last weekend as the ‘over’ went 4-0-1 with the aforementioned push between Nebraska and Northwestern. The two big bullies in the conference, Ohio State and Michigan State, both put up 56-spots last Saturday in easy victories against Rutgers and Indiana respectively.

The Big 12 watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 in Week 8 and we had some surprising outcomes. The Baylor-West Virginia total was the highest on the board (80.5) last week and the game had a decent pace at halftime (24-20). In the final 30 minutes, the Bears managed just seven points and the Mountaineers captured a 41-27 upset at home while the game stays ‘under’ the number. While those schools failed to deliver a shootout, the Longhorns and Cyclones did and that certainly wasn’t expected. Texas defeated Iowa State 48-45 as ‘over’ bettors (45) were celebrating in the second quarter.

The ‘under’ went 3-1-1 in Pac-12 play last week and some ‘under’ bettors are probably upset that Oregon kicked a late field goal against Washington when the game was already in hand. (See above)

In five SEC conference games last Saturday, total bettors watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 and there were some outcomes that likely pissed off a few bettors. In particular, Alabama beats Texas A&M 59-0 and the game stays ‘under’ (62.5) the number. No points from the Aggies? Also, Missouri beats Florida 42-13 with 119 yards of total offense. Four defensive and special team touchdowns will hurt any ‘under’ tickets (45) which was the case in Gainesville.

Teams to Watch

When this week’s totals opened on Tuesday afternoon, there were three games that caught my eye and the quick adjustments (line moves) made me delve into them even further.

We asked VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos to offer up his thoughts and betting advice on three schools that continue to post lopsided total results.

Michigan State has watched the ‘over’ go 6-1 this season. This Saturday, the Spartans face intrastate rival Michigan in East Lansing. The total opened 51 ½ and has dropped to 48 ½ points. Make a note that the ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run in this series.

Manos: Michigan State totals have been consistently getting UNDER money and it's been costly to those betting. While this Spartans defense is still talented it's likely not on par with last year's edition and has been on the field for more plays as their offense is playing faster. Improved QB play has helped Michigan St. shed it's under ways and the Spartans offense has become balanced averaging 265 YPG passing and 260 YPG rushing. The Spartans have seen a "perfect storm" of sorts when it comes to their totals. They've played three up-tempo teams in Oregon, Purdue, and Indiana, with all those games going OVER the total, and when they've played slower paced teams, Eastern Michigan and Wyoming, they've simply been able to dominant them athletically causing both those games to go OVER as well. The movement on their total this week, however, has little to do with Michigan State and lots to do with their opponent. Bettors see an inept Michigan offense on the road vs. a tough defense and automatically look UNDER. Throw in the rivalry and the fact that the Wolverines were shutout in their only other road game vs a ranked opponent and a case can be made for playing the low side. This is not the week to be riding the MSU OVER train.

Stanford has been a clear-cut ‘under’ team this season, posting a 6-0 record against FBS schools. The Cardinal host Oregon State in Week 9 and the total opened at 44, which has been lowered. Three of the last four have went ‘under’ in this series.

Manos: Not so long ago a total of 42 in a college football game would have had me looking UNDER immediately but now it has me wondering if the line is a mistake. Stanford is a throwback and they've certainly been an UNDER team this season, with a dominating defense and an offense that can't make explosive plays. These trends are unlikely to change for the Cardinal as they are a direct reflection of the style of football played in Palo Alto. Stanford has been playing great defense for years but now their power running game is struggling (95th in the nation in rushing) and it's limiting their offense. Oregon State has been struggling to run the ball as well and will mean lots of 3rd and longs in this contest, meaning lower 3rd down conversion rates, and less offensive efficiency. My concern in playing UNDER would be Beaver QB Mannion's propensity for throwing INT's, potentially setting up short fields for Stanford's offense.

Mississippi faces a tough road test this week at LSU and oddsmakers are expecting a slugfest, opening the total at 47, which was dropped quickly to 45. The Rebels have seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six SEC matchups. However, the ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and the lone ‘under’ occurred last season as the pair combined for 51 points. We asked Manos if the Ole Miss defense is legit.

Manos: Yes, I think it's time to say that the Ole Miss Rebels have a great defense. This is the defensive team that the program envisioned when they pulled a recruiting coup and got DT Robert Nkemdiche to come to Oxford. They have nine starters back and their two deep is filled with talented players. Holding Memphis to three points and Alabama to 17 were impressive feats and they simply dominated an improving Tennessee team last week. They haven't' really been tested away from home yet though, but fortunately for them the two toughest remaining games on their schedule (Auburn, Miss. St.) are both home tilts. The Rebels did allow 400+ passing yards at Texas A&M but don't face another team with that type of passing game this season.

James Manos (59%, +872) continues to cash college winners on VegasInsider.com!

Line Moves

This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.

1) Correct Sharp Movement – Syracuse/Clemson Under

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Wyoming/Colorado State Over

3) Public Movement – Texas Tech/TCU Over

4) Market Manipulation – USC/Utah Under

Listed below are all of the Week 9 total moves by 3.5 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday.

Week 9 Moves

Rotation Open Current

Vanderbilt at Missouri 52.5 42.5

Rutgers at Nebraska 57 60.5

Texas Tech at TCU 67.5 72

Memphis at SMU 52.5 49

UTEP at Texas-San Antonio 55.5 47.5

Old Dominion at Western Kentucky 74 78

Texas at Kansas State 53.5 48

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

College football knowledge to ponder with Week 8 upon us.........

-- Michigan State won five of last six games with Michigan, with four of five wins by 14+ points; favorites are 5-2-1 in last eight series games.

-- Tennessee 3-10 in its last 13 games as a home underdog.

-- Last time Miss State played on road (Sept 20) they were unranked; now they're #1 in country. Curious to see how they play.

-- Oregon State is 19-7 vs spread in its last 26 games as road dogs

-- Since 2012, USC is 1-9 vs spread when giving points on the road.

-- Arizona won five of its last six games with Washington State; underdogs are 9-3 vs spread in last 12 series games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 25


Saturday's college football weather update

With a full slate of Week 9 college football action on tap Saturday, here's a look at a few stadiums that could be affected by high winds.

The all-Michigan contest between the Spartans and the Wolverines could see Northwest winds from 10-15 mph.

Arizona and Washington State's clash is expected to see southeast gusts from 10-15 mph. There is a 30 percent chance of showers for affair.

Western winds from 10-20 mph could affect Central Michigan and SUNY-Buffalo's meeting in the Empire State.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Ole Miss at LSU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ole Miss Rebels at LSU Tigers (+3.5, 45)

Mississippi's dream season rolls into Baton Rouge, La., on Saturday as the third-ranked Rebels face a tough road test at No. 23 LSU. The Rebels are off to their best start since 1962 and are aiming for only the second 8-0 start in program history. Meanwhile, LSU has knocked off at least one top-10 opponent at Tiger Stadium in each of the past four seasons and has chances to do so each of the next two games with No. 4 Alabama visiting on Nov. 8.

The Rebels have beaten ranked opponents two of the past three weeks and face another big hurdle in the Tigers, who have won two straight since a 41-7 loss at Auburn and are coming off a 41-3 thrashing of Kentucky. "The last two weeks they've gotten back to doing their bread and butter," Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze said of LSU. "That's physical, control the clock. They're able to run the football with the outstanding backs that they have." LSU has won nine of the last 12 meetings but lost 27-24 last season in Oxford; Ole Miss has won two straight in the series only once since 1999.

TV: 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Mississippi -3.5.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line had LSU spotted three points, before climbing to LSU +3.5 where it currently sits. The total opened at 44, but quickly jumped to 45.

INJURY REPORT: Ole Miss - WR Laquon Treadwell (Prob-Shoulder), OL Ben Still (Ques-Knee), OL Aaron Morris (Prob-Ankle) LSU - N/A

WEATHER FORECAST: Death Valley will be a perfect place for a football game Saturday. There will be no clouds, minimal wind and temperatures around 65°F.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (7-0, 4-0 SEC): Ole Miss boasts the nation's top scoring defense, allowing 10.6 points per game, and the defense has scored almost as many TDs (4) as it has allowed (6). The Rebels have forced a whopping 20 turnovers, including a nation-best 15 interceptions, and will try to exploit LSU's young quarterback duo. The offense is a little more understated, but quarterback Bo Wallace — often noted for his up-and-down play — has been outstanding, racking up 1,899 passing yards with 17 TDs against six interceptions.

ABOUT LSU (6-2, 2-2): The Tigers' defense had struggled in SEC play before turning in a dominant effort last week, holding Kentucky to 217 total yards and three points. The offense has put up 28 or more points in seven of eight games despite sometimes inconsistent quarterback play, with sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris splitting time under center. Both quarterbacks have a strong running game to lean on and a big-play receiver in Travin Dural, who averages 25.6 yards per catch and has hauled in seven TDs.

TRENDS:

*Rebels are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Louisiana State.
*Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 6-0 in Rebels last 6 road games.
*Underdog is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of Consensus wagers are currently on Ole Miss.