The Bum's NFL Playoff POD'S, STAT'S NEWS PLAYOFF GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

Championship Angles

January 15, 201

NFL Championship Games... Buyer Beware

And then there were four.

NFL’s version of the ‘Final Four’ kicks off this Sunday in the Championship Games where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets in 15 of 46 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being the Baltimore Ravens victory over New England at Foxboro last year, and the New York Giants win at San Francisco two years ago, with both teams going on to capture the coveted Super Bowl.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the Championship Games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.

What A Rush

Running the football is tantamount to success in the NFL. Especially in the playoffs.

It’s no coincidence that since the Giants 21-17 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI that 18 of the last 20 straight-up playoff winners have rushed the ball for 100 or more yards, including all eight winners this season.

Teams who have managed to gain 110 or more rushing yards in a championship game have gone 19-9 SU and 20-8 ATS, including 9-1 ATS as underdogs of 4 or more points.

While all four of this week’s combatants average more than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, only Denver and San Francisco surrender less than 100 running yards per contest.

The Patriots allow the most yards on the ground, 130 YPG.

Situationally Speaking

The oddsmakers have done a nice job overall during this round, with favorites checking in at 26-22 ATS, and home teams 22-26 ATS.

Teams off a road win (San Francisco) are 15-11 ATS, while teams off a win-no-cover are 12-8 ATS, including 8-3 ATS when riding a pair of wins.

That’s music to the ears of Denver and Seattle backers.

Gravity Alert

While high-scoring games are the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round off a high scoring effort in their last game tend to come back to earth harder than a sky diver with a defective chute.

Consider: Half of the 34 teams in this round who put 34 or more points on the scoreboard in a divisional round victory fell short of the Super Bowl, going 17-17 SU and 12-22 ATS.

Worse, if these same teams are taking on an .800 or greater foe they fall to 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in title games.

That puts New England on hard ground this Sunday.

Been There Done That

Three of the four head coaches have had the luxury of coaching team in Championship Games – namely Bill Belichick, Jon Fox and Jim Harbaugh.

New England’s Belichick brings a 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS record (0-4 ATS last four) with the Patriots in Championship Games into this week’s fray. Furthermore, the Hoodie is 0-4 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points his previous playoff contest.

Meanwhile, Fox has made two championship game appearances with Carolina, splitting out 1-1 SU and ATS – both as an underdog.

San Francisco returns to the championship game for the third-straight year under Jim Harbaugh. The Niners are 1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS in these games under his lead.

Seattle’s Pete Carroll is a championship game virgin.

Over There

Points aplenty in this league of late have forced the linemakers to raise the Over/Under totals bar.

Its what happens when there have been 29 OVERS and 19 UNDERS and 1 PUSH in Championship Games.

Surprisingly, the higher the total them more OVERS there have been as games with a posted total set at 46 or more points going 10-5 OVER.

Stat of the Week

Outside of the 2009 New Orleans Saints, the last No. 1 seed from the NFC to win a Super Bowl game was the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

[StarDust Bum]

Brady, Manning collide

January 16, 2014


AFC Championship - New England (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS) at Denver (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Denver -2.5, Total: 54.5

Tom Brady’s Patriots look to secure a sixth Super Bowl berth in the past 13 years on Sunday afternoon when they visit Peyton Manning’s Broncos seeking their first AFC Championship since 1998. Brady is 10-4 head-to-head versus Manning, including 2-1 in the postseason, but is just 2-4 SU all-time in Denver.

New England overcame a 24-0 halftime deficit in a 34-31 home win in Week 12 over the Broncos, as Brady threw for 344 yards and 3 TD, while Manning threw for a season-low 150 yards and 2 TD. But the story of that game was turnovers, as the Patriots lost fumbles on each of their first three drives, but Denver committed four turnovers to let New England back into the game.

The Pats are red-hot, having won their past three contests by an average of 23.0 PPG, but they are just 2-6 ATS (4-4 SU) on the road this year. The Broncos have also won three straight games by an impressive 17.0 PPG, and are 5-3 ATS (8-1 SU) at home this season.

Both teams have favorable betting trends for Sunday, as the Patriots are 20-8 ATS (71%) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and 25-10 ATS (71%) versus excellent passing teams (260+ pass YPG) under head coach Bill Belichick. But Denver is 15-5 ATS (75%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and 12-4 ATS (75%) versus poor passing defenses (235+ passing YPG allowed) over the past two seasons.

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries. New England LB Brandon Spikes (knee) is out, while P Ryan Allen (shoulder) and rookie WRs Aaron Dobson (foot) and Kenbrell Thompkins (head) are all questionable.

For the Broncos, they lost CB Chris Harris (knee) for the season, and three other members of the secondary are also hurting -- S Duke Ihenacho (concussion) and CBs Champ Bailey (shoulder) and Kayvon Webster (thumb) -- but all three are expected to play on Sunday.

Starting with the comeback win over Denver in Week 12, the Patriots offense has been rolling with 33.3 PPG on 419 total YPG in their past seven games, where they've gone 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS). While in the past this offense was mostly due to QB Tom Brady throwing the football, the Patriots have considerably more rushing yards (214 rush YPG) than passing yards (153 pass YPG) during their three-game win streak.

The man mostly responsible for this improved ground game is RB LeGarrette Blount, who has rushed for 431 yards on 64 carries (6.7 YPC) and eight touchdowns over the past three contests. Blount lost a fumble on his second carry of the game against Denver in Week 12 and did not touch the ball for the remainder of the contest, but he will need to be an integral part of this offense for his team to win on Sunday.

New England knows it cannot be one-dimensional against what has been a strong Broncos run defense, and Brady threw all over Denver's subpar secondary on Nov. 24, completing 34-of-50 passes for 344 yards (6.9 YPA), 3 TD and 0 INT. Brady is now 5-6 with 7.4 YPA, 23 TD and 8 INT all-time versus the Broncos, including 7.8 YPA, 11 TD and 7 INT in six trips to Denver. WR Julian Edelman and RB Shane Vereen were Brady's main targets in Week 12, combining for 17 catches, 170 yards and 2 TD in that victory. Edelman has been outstanding all season with 111 receptions for 1,140 yards and 6 TD in his 17 games, racking up 59 catches for 640 yards and 4 TD in his past seven contests.

The New England defense has had its problems throughout the season (374 total YPG allowed), which includes 244 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA, and 130 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC. But the unit has allowed only 21.2 PPG this season, and just 16.3 PPG during its three-game win streak, which is helped greatly by its eight takeaways during this stretch. But they shouldn't expect the Broncos to turn the football over another four times like in their last meeting.

Denver has committed only five turnovers in its six games since losing in New England. Although QB Peyton Manning threw for a mere 150 yards in that defeat, with no receiver gaining even 50 yards, the Broncos were still able to amass 430 total yards on offense, compiling 280 rushing yards on 48 carries (5.8 YPC). RB Knowshon Moreno had 224 of those on 37 attempts (6.1 YPC), but he hasn't been great since that super-human effort, rushing for just 296 yards (3.8 YPC) in the past six games combined.

Manning has relied on four main pass catchers this season in WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker, and TE Julius Thomas, who was injured for the game in New England. Julius Thomas led the team with 76 receiving yards in last Sunday's 24-17 win over San Diego, while Demaryius Thomas and Welker scored the touchdowns. Welker, who played with the Patriots for six seasons, managed just four catches for 31 yards against his former team in Week 12 and has not reached 100 yards in a game all season.

Manning improved his career playoff record to 10-9 last week, while increasing his postseason stats to 5,488 passing yards (7.6 YPA), 33 TD and 22 INT. These numbers are similar to what he's done in 15 career games versus New England (5-10 record), where he has 4,225 passing yards (7.2 YPA), 31 TD and 20 INT.

But Manning should have more faith in his defense that has been playing at a very high level over the team's three-game win streak, holding opponents to 14.7 PPG and 251 total YPG. That's a huge improvement from what the Broncos gave up in their first 14 games of the year (26.6 PPG and 372 total YPG). Denver has been especially stingy against opposing rushers during the win streak (72.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC), and has the ability to slow down the Patriots suddenly potent ground game. But since forcing three fumbles against New England on Nov. 24, the Broncos have totaled just six takeaways in the past six games combined.

[StarDust Bum]

Round 3 - 49ers at 'Hawks

January 16, 2014


NFC Championship - San Francisco (14-4 SU, 11-5-2 ATS) at Seattle (14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Seattle -3.5, Total: 38.5

The 49ers look to secure a ninth straight victory and a second straight NFC Championship when they visit the division rival Seahawks on Sunday.

San Francisco is 0-5 ATS (1-4 SU) in the past five trips to Seattle, scoring less than 20 points each time (11.6 PPG). This includes a 29-3 blowout loss in Week 2 when the club committed an uncharacteristic five turnovers. But since that matchup, the Niners are 8-0-1 ATS (8-1 SU) in non-home games, and are outscoring these clubs by 14.0 PPG. And their current eight-game win streak includes a 19-17 win over the Seahawks when they nearly doubled Seattle's rushing yards (163 to 83). But the Seahawks are extremely tough to take down at home, going 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) at CenturyLink Field this year, where they hold visitors to 13.9 PPG and 271 total YPG.

There are plenty of positive betting trends for both teams in this matchup.

Since 2011, San Francisco is 10-1 ATS when facing a top-level team (75%+ win pct.), outscoring these elite opponents by an average score of 29 to 18, and 17-8 ATS (68%) in road games, including 8-1 ATS on the road versus good passing teams (61%+ completion pct.). But NFL road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, coming off two straight road wins with a winning record, facing another winning team are just 5-24 ATS (17%) since 1983.

Also, since Pete Carroll became the team's head coach in 2010, Seattle is 24-10 ATS (71%) at home and 15-4 ATS (79%) when revenging a loss against an opponent.

Both teams have a couple of injury concerns for Sunday, as the 49ers could be without CB Carlos Rogers (hamstring) and FB Will Tukuafu (knee), while the Seahawks have two key contributors, WR Percy Harvin (concussion) and DT Jordan Hill (groin), who are listed as questionable.

The 49ers don't have an explosive offense (25.1 PPG on 326 YPG), but they have been slightly better on the road where they average 26.0 PPG on 327 YPG. They prefer to utilize their impressive ground game that has compiled 139 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC this year, but are also efficient throwing the football with 7.1 YPA. QB Colin Kaepernick is 3-0 in true road games in his postseason career, throwing for 656 yards (8.3 YPA) and 3 TD while rushing for 134 yards (7.9 YPC) and one touchdown, which came last week in Carolina. But he has not played well in three career starts against Seattle, completing just 50.5% of his passes for 546 yards (5.9 YPA), 2 TD and 5 INT. He has found some running room in this series though, with 149 yards on 25 carries (6.0 YPC).

RB Frank Gore has faced the Seahawks 16 times in his long career, piling up 1,800 total yards and 5 TD, while rushing for a hefty 5.3 yards per carry. This includes 110 yards on just 17 attempts (6.5 YPC) when the teams met in Week 14, but he was held to 16 yards on nine carries in the Week 2 defeat in Seattle, showing that his performance will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game.

If Gore cannot find any running room, San Francisco has plenty of talented receivers to move the chains through the air. WR Michael Crabtree was injured for that Week 2 loss, but was able to catch four passes in the Dec. 8 meeting. Crabtree also opened the playoffs with a huge performance in Green Bay (8 catches, 125 yards), while teammate WR Anquan Boldin did the heavy damage last week versus the Panthers with eight catches for 136 yards. Although Boldin's 93 receiving yards helped the Niners defeat the Seahawks in Week 14, he was nearly invisible in Seattle in Week 2, catching just one pass for seven yards. TE Vernon Davis has caught touchdown passes in 13 of his 17 games this season, including seven straight road games, but had 41 combined receiving yards and one touchdown in two meetings with the Seahawks this year.

While the San Francisco offense has been up and down this year, the defensive unit has been consistently outstanding. For the season, the Niners allow just 16.8 PPG on 315 total YPG, holding opponents to 96 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC, while limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 59.6% completion percentage, 219 passing YPG and 6.2 YPA. They have done a great job on third downs all season (34.8%), and their red-zone efficiency (50% TD rate) has been even better in the two playoff games (29% TD rate), thanks in part to nine postseason sacks, including 4.5 sacks from LB Ahmad Brooks. The unit has also forced at least two turnovers in 11-of-18 games this season, totaling 32 takeaways, but has forced exactly one Seahawks turnover in five straight meetings.

Seattle's offense has been slightly better than San Francisco this season with 25.9 PPG and 335 total YPG, but the teams have virtually the same amount of rushing yards (139 YPG) with the Seahawks averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Seattle's passing offense has been much more efficient than the Niners though with 63.0% completion rate and 7.6 YPA. QB Russell Wilson has had a stellar second season in the NFL with 26 TD passes and just 9 INT, but he was pretty quiet in last week's win versus New Orleans when he completed just 9-of-18 passes for 103 yards (5.7 YPA), 0 TD and 0 INT. He also struggled against San Francisco this season, completing just 23-of-44 passes (52%) for 341 yards (7.8 YPA), 2 TD and 2 INT in the two meetings.

While he doesn't have a 1,000-yard receiver to rely on, WRs Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin are both reliable pass catchers, combining for 117 catches and 1,719 receiving yards this season with five touchdown catches each. Tate does a great job of turning short passes into long gains, as he led the NFL with 7.8 YAC per reception during the regular season. Baldwin is more of a field stretcher with 15.5 yards per reception, and he caught a 51-yard pass in the Week 2 win over the Niners. TE Zach Miller also has 5 TD grabs on the season, but caught just three passes for 35 yards in the two meetings with San Francisco and was held to one catch last week.

But for this team to reach the Super Bowl, it will continue to ride RB Marshawn Lynch. The bruising back is one of the rare players that have had success against the 49ers, compiling 832 total yards and 7 TD in eight career meetings. This includes 316 rushing yards on 4.2 YPC and 6 total TD (4 rushing, 2 receiving) in three meetings at CenturyLink Field. In Week 2, Lynch burned San Francisco for 135 total yards and three touchdowns, and last week against the Saints, he rushed 28 times for 140 yards (5.0 YPC) and two scores.

No defense was better than Seattle during the regular season, as the club led the NFL in total defense (274 YPG), scoring defense (14.4 PPG), passing defense (172 YPG) and red-zone efficiency (36% TD rate). This unit also placed seventh in the league in rushing defense, allowing 102 YPG on 3.9 YPC. Since surrendering 163 yards on 4.9 YPC against the Niners in Week 14, the Seahawks have limited the past four opponents to a meager 71 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC. Turnovers have also been a staple of this defense, as it has racked up multiple takeaways in 12 of 17 games this season, forcing 40 turnovers overall (22 at home). This has been accomplished because of a lock-down secondary (CB Richard Sherman leads the league with 8 INT) and a pass rush generating 45 sacks.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Dodgers give Clayton Kershaw a seven-year, $215M extension-- it was posted somewhere that it works out to $938,000 a start. Yikes.

-- Texas Tech 82, Baylor 72-- Tech gets first Big X win; they were up by 21 at the half. Ugly performance by the Bears.

-- Wizards 114, Heat 97-- Miami loses third game in row; they were down 34 in the first half. To the Wizards. Wade and James both played, too.

-- Bulls 128 Wizards 125 3ot-- Three Chicago subs played 35+ minutes. Butler played 60 minutes. Orlando's starting guards scored 66 points.

-- UMass 88, George Mason 87-- 15-1 Minutemen were down 8 in second half, scored with 0:08 left to win it.

-- Clippers 129, Mavericks 127-- LA ended game on 23-4 run for the win. Mark Cuban was on the court ripping the refs after the game.


*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFC teams' playoff histories

Arizona (5-6)—Had one playoff win before Kurt Warner got to the desert; the future Hall of Famer came very close to getting them a Lombardi Trophy. Home team won eight of their ten playoff games.

Atlanta (7-12)—Only 4-3 at home; were first road team to win a playoff game at Lambeau when Michael Vick was there. Home loss to 49ers LY was Niners’ first road playoff win since 1970.

Carolina (6-5)—Disappointing home loss last week, but came close to winning Super Bowl when Jake Delhomme was QB, so you figure Cam Newton will get it done eventually.

Chicago (10-13)—1-1 in Super Bowls; 14 of other 21 playoff games were at home. Their ’85 team allowed only 10 points in its three playoff wins. Still think they made a mistake firing Lovie Smith.

Dallas (33-25)—From ’66-’97, were 32-19 in playoff games; since then, they’re 1-6. Lost last seven road playoff games, with last road win 17-13 at Chicago in ’97.

Detroit (1-10)—One win in 47 years, a glorious 38-6 win over Dallas in ’91, under the tutelage of Wayne Fontes. In 47 years, they’ve hosted two playoff games, and are 0-9 on the road. Into this mess they bring Jim Caldwell, who once went 26-63 in eight years at Wake Forest, and didn’t win a Super Bowl while coaching Peyton Manning. Oy.

Green Bay (23-15)—Won first nine home playoff games in Super Bowl era, are 3-4 in last seven. Won Super Bowls with three different QBs (Starr-Favre-Rodgers).

Minnesota (19-27)— Have most playoff losses in Super Bowl era. Hiring Mike Zimmer is an excellent move. 0-4 in Super Bowls, 1-6 in last seven road playoff games, now they’re going to play home games outdoors again for two years while their new stadium gets built.

NJ Giants (20-11)—Since ’07, have only made playoffs three times, but won Super Bowl two of those three years (8-1 in last nine playoff games). Still can’t believe the Super Bowl is going to be in Swamp Stadium in two weeks. Not America’s most brilliant idea.

New Orleans (6-9)—Didn’t play a playoff game from 1967 until 1987, didn’t win one until 2000; are 1-6 in road playoff games, but won last five at home, after losing first three. Super Bowl IV was in New Orleans, but outdoors at old Tulane Stadium.

Philadelphia (15-19)—Lost last three home playoff games, with last win in ’06 over the Giants. Lost Super Bowl XV in 1981 under Coach Dick Vermeil, 19 years before Vermeil won a Super Bowl with the Rams.

St Louis (16-21)—Haven’t made tournament since ’04; are 4-1 in playoff games in Jones Dome, were 4-4 in California- they won division seven years in row in 70’s, should’ve won at least one title with that group.

San Francisco (29-18)—28-24 win at Atlanta LY was their first road playoff win since 1970; they’re now 4-9 in road playoff games, 20-8 at home, 5-1 in Super Bowls.

Seattle (10-12)—Won last seven home playoff games; if they make it #8, they go to their second Super Bowl- their first-ever playoff win was over Denver, a former AFC West rival who they could easily play in the Swamp February 2.

Tampa Bay (6-9)—Lost NFC title game in their 4th season, are still just 1-6 in road playoff games. Haven’t made playoffs since 2007, will get back soon under Tony Dungy disciple Lovie Smith.

Washington (21-13)—Won three Super Bowls with three different QBs, are 13-2 in home playoff games, losing to Seattle in ’12, Chicago in

[StarDust Bum]

AFC Championship action report: Line mistake makes for one wild ride

There are two huge conference championship matchups on the NFL board this Sunday, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos battling for the AFC title, and the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks mixing it up for the NFC crown.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in the AFC Championship Game, the drastic line move that occurred shortly after posting this spread, and where he sees the line landing coming kickoff.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos – Open: -7, Move: -4.5, Move: -5.5

The Brady vs. Manning media blitz was overshadowed – at least in the sports betting industry – by the massive line movement this spread saw once it hit the market. Books opened New England as high as a touchdown underdog after thumping Indianapolis in the Divisional Round and took instant action on the road team, pushing this spread as many as 2.5 points.

“We literally wrote 50 bets to zero bets at that number,” Stewart says of the touchdown opener and action on the Patriots. “No question, we hung a bad opening number because we saw nothing but one-way action.”

Stewart admits the spread was off but is baffled by how far bettors have driven this spread, and the amount on money on New England at the mid-week mark. He points out that the Broncos were double-digit favorites in six of their eight home games during the regular season and easily covered those single-digit home spreads versus Baltimore and Kansas City.

“Bottom line, this team has been dominant at home and while I admit we opened with a bad number of 7, all the money we booked on the Patriots is surprising to me and my crew,” he says. “We’ve gone from needing the Broncos’ opponent in every single game this year, to all of a sudden seeing everyone fading the Broncos here. It is amazing to me.”

Once the spread dropped to Denver –4.5, action started to show up on the home side. Stewart says sharp money came in Monday afternoon and commanded a move to Broncos -5. Another hit from wiseguys forced books to tack on a half point Wednesday morning.

“This is by far one of the more interesting games we’ve booked in recent memory, as the public is supporting the dog and the wiseguys are on the favorite,” Stewart tells Covers. “The public drove this number down and now the sharps are driving it back up. So far 75 percent of the action is on the Patriots and, while sharp money is on the favorite, I don’t think we’ll get back to -6 because of our exposure on the Patriots is already significant enough.”

The total for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game isn’t as volatile as the spread, but has seen its share of adjustments. The number opened 55 and with 70 percent of total wagers siding with the Over, the book has since moved to 56. But Stewart believes this line isn’t done moving yet and could see major sharp influence before Sunday’s game.

“I suspect the wiseguys are waiting for this total to go even higher and I expect their patience will pay off because we’re going to eventually get to 56.5 and maybe, maybe even 57 as we get closer to kickoff,” he says.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC Championship action report: Sharps on Seahawks, public loves 49ers

There are two huge conference championship matchups on the NFL board this Sunday, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos battling for the AFC title, and the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks mixing it up for the NFC crown.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in the NFC Championship Game, the early line moves, and where he sees the line landing coming kickoff.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -3, Move: -3.5

These NFC West rivals know each other all too well, having split their two games during the regular season. However, Seattle covered in both those contests and has drawn the early action in this battle of 11-5 ATS teams.

According to Stewart, sharp money first showed on the Seahawks and forced an extra half a point on the field-goal spread. However, since that adjustment, the public has piled on the underdog 49ers, who have won eight in a row, including two road playoff games.

“We’re seeing way more action on the dog than we are on the favorite,” Stewart tells Covers. “After going to 3.5, we saw a surge of 49ers money but this isn’t a game where we wanted to move the number and go back to -3, because as everyone knows, three is such a live number and we don’t want to get middled or sided.”

With about 70 percent of the handle sitting on the Niners, oddsmakers are juggling the juice, trying to stick to that 3.5-point spread. Sharp money hit the Seahawks again Wednesday morning, forcing a five cent adjustment to the vig from 49ers +3.5 (-125) to +3.5 (-120), with the Seahawks coming back at -3.5 (EVEN).

“This is a game where we’re seeing public money on the dog and sharp money on the favorite, and we kind of anticipated this scenario,” says Stewart. “Our bettors have been all over the 49ers in the playoffs. We’ve seen sharp money support the Seahawks at home all season and unlike last week, they’ve gotten the money more times than not. So this game and the line movement has been somewhat predictable.”

Stewart says the bulk of the action is still to come but they aren’t exposed with liability on either side so far and he doesn’t expect the spread to stray much farther than its current stand, offsetting money by dialing the juice up and down.

As for the total for the NFC Championship Game, the number opened at 41 points and immediately drew money from wiseguys on the Under Sunday evening. That trimmed the total to 40 but could stop action from sharps playing the Under. Their most recent move to 39.5 has finally coaxed Over bettors out of hibernation but it’s not enough to add to this number.

“We respect the Under money we booked so I don’t see us going back to 40 anytime soon,” says Stewart. “We really like where we’re at in this game, both on the side and total.”

[StarDust Bum]

Capping NFL rematches: What to keep, throw away for Championship Sunday

Often in the NFL's Conference Championship we see a rematch of two of the AFC and NFC's top teams from the regular season and 2014 is no exception. The NFL got exactly what it wanted with two of the more hyped playoff games in recent memory.

In the AFC, we will be getting the always intriguing story line of Peyton Manning going against nemesis Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Meanwhile, the NFC West rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers will be renewed for a third time this season.

With a lot to look at in terms of correlating the numbers of the original meetings and how they will factor into this weekend, we look at what to keep and what to throw away for these intense rivalry matchups.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-4.5, 55)

Original meeting: New England 34 Denver 31 (Week 12)

What to keep: Surprisingly, for two teams that have quarterbacks who grab all the headlines, the rushing game is extremely important to both the Broncos and the Patriots. In their first meeting, Denver rushed for 280 yards while the Patriots rushed for 119. Both teams average well over 100 yards per game on the ground and hover near 30 rushing attempts. That success carried over to their wins this weekend with New England scoring on the ground for all six of their TD's and 234 yards rushing while the Broncos rushed for 133 yards against the Chargers. With Manning and Brady getting all of the attention from the media, you can forget that both of these teams will be expected to do a lot of their work on the ground this Sunday.

What to throw away: Both teams had uncharacteristic amounts of turnovers in their first meeting this season. New England turned the ball over four times, losing three fumbles and seeing Brady throw one interception. The Broncos had similar problems putting the football on the carpet, losing three fumbles of their own. In total, the Patriots fumbled six times in the game and the Broncos five times. Eleven forced fumbles in a game is an extremely high number and it would be surprising to see that repeated.


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 49)

First meeting: Seattle 29, San Francisco 3 (at Seattle, Week 2)
Second meeting: San Francisco 19, Seattle 17 (at San Francisco, Week 14)

What to keep: The team that has ran the ball most effectively has won the game in both 2013 meetings of these intense NFC West rivals. Seattle outrushed San Francisco 172-100 in the first contest which they won 29-3, while the Niners managed to win the rushing battle at Candlestick in December, holding the Seahawks to 86 yards while running for 163. With both teams built around mobile QBs and elite running backs, this game might once again come down to who can run better (or which defense can stop the run) on their way to the Super Bowl.

Both games between the two have also been low scoring and intense affairs, going under the total with just 32 and 36 points combined in the two respective meetings. San Francisco allows just 14.5 points per game in 2013 and the Seahawks allow just 16.8. With both team's defenses already amongst the most intense in the league it is unlikely that this game will feature less of that top-caliber defensive play we have seen in both games.

What to throw away: Seattle's 29-3 thumping of the Niners earlier in the season should be considered an afterthought as the Niners offense is much more well rounded with the presence of Michael Crabtree in the lineup. Crabtree caught eight passes for 125 yards against the Packers in the Wild Card and his presence opened up opportunities for Anquan Boldin against the Panthers when he caught eight passes if his own for 136 yards Sunday. With Brandon Browner also out of the picture after a PED suspension, the Seahawks secondary will likely struggle to hold a Niners team that averages 25.1 points per game to just a field goal for a second time. Expect the Niners team to look more like the team that played a close game in a 19-17 win at Candlestick than the team that was embarrassed by Seattle in hostile territory earlier in the year. Tread lightly however, as the Niners are 1-4 ATS in Seattle in their last five meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Thoughts/info on baseball's new replay system.......

-- Each manager gets one challenge per game.

-- If you win your challenge, you get a second one, but thats it; maximum of two per team per game.

-- Umpires control challenges from the 7th inning on; managers can ask for a review from 7th on, but aren't guaranteed to get it.

-- Home runs can't be challenged; they'll all be handled by umpires, the way they were last season.

-- I'm thinking teams will need a set of eyes upstairs to watch TV, advise on when to use challenges/ask for reviews.

-- Am very curious to see how many times the "neighborhood play" at second base will be challenged. Strategy on when to use your one challenge will be very interesting.


*****

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here......

13) Scout for the Washington Nationals compared Cuba’s enthusiasm for baseball with way Alabama fans love college football, so I guess enthusiasm isn’t a strong enough word, seeing how Alabama gets 90,000 fans at its spring game.

Curious to see how many Cuban players come to the big leagues in the next few years—one non-defecting player is keeping 80% of his salary with 20% going to the Cuban baseball organization, which could be a wave of the future, and will result in more Cubans coming here to play ball.

12) Glad to see Charlie Manuel took a front office job with Philly, even after they canned him as manager last year. Manuel is a great hitting instructor, so guessing he could do some of that in the minor leagues.

11) There is an actual TV show called Treehouse Masters where they build custom tree houses for people and some of them are pretty nice. There are a lot of unusual TV shows out there.

10) Remember before the Raiders’ last game, when Terrelle Pryor’s agent claimed the Raiders wanted Pryor to be lousy in their last game so they could get rid of him? Well, Pryor fired the agent, so guess he wants to stay in Oakland- question becomes, do they want him?

9) Jack Del Rio’s son was a walk-on QB at Alabama this year; he transferred out and is rumored to be headed to Oregon State, which had offered him a scholarship coming out of high school.

8) Great to see Mike Zimmer get a chance to be a head coach; he has been an NFL coordinator since 2000, he has earned his chance. Saw him on Hard Knocks last summer and he seems like a good guy.

7) Norv Turner is headed to Minnesota to be offensive coordinator for Zimmer’s staff; Norv’s son Scott will be QB coach. That recipe worked so well for the Shanahans in Washington, no reason not to try it again.

6) Georgia hired DC Jeremy Pruitt away from Florida State; Pruitt has been on staff for the last three national champs, having worked at Alabama before FSU- he is seen as rising star in coaching.

5) Guy named Bo Davis was defensive line coach/recruiter at Texas the last three years, then moved on to USC earlier this month after Mack Brown got canned. He lasted a week at USC before bolting to Alabama, where he’ll work for his college coach Nick Saban, who he played for at LSU. Football coaches are gypsies, the way a lot of them bounce from job to job.

4) Forbes Magazine did an article that studied finances (coaches’ salaries, recruiting budgets) of college basketball programs, and decided that St Bonaventure’s Mark Schmitt was giving his school the most bang for its buck- Bonnies spent only $88,000 a win which seems like a lot, but is apparently the lowest figure amongst the D-I schools they studied.

3) My last word until next fall on the Jim Caldwell hire: Its really good to be friends with Tony Dungy.

2) Providence basketball team is down to playing six players; their game with St John’s was their first of three games in six days. Good luck there, and by the way, they need to go recruit more players, several more.

Friars beat St John's in double OT, as Red Storm blew 4-point lead in last 1:20 of the second OT- they're 0-5 in the Big East. .

1) So I’m reading a fantasy baseball magazine about Sabermetrics and how it can help you; the person who wrote it obviously knows a lot about Math, but then he references Cub pitcher Travis Wood and calls him right-handed, which would be true if only he wasn’t a lefty.

So now the author has no credibility and I’m not sure whether to dismiss the article or not. I love numbers, but I’m in the middle on advanced metrics; you still have to watch and see if a person can play- the eye test has to have meaning.

Would be nice if the math dude knew which hand a guy threw the ball with.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Championship Sunday

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 55)

Patriots’ pass rush vs. Broncos’ offensive timing

Lost in the Brady vs. Manning hoopla and the Patriots’ drastic shift in gears to the running game, is New England’s pass rush. The Patriots defense, specifically the guys bombarding the opposing quarterback, are playing their best football of the season.

New England has registered 11 sacks over the past three games, including three sacks on Colts QB Andrew Luck last weekend. The pass rush is throwing opposing offense’s timing off and has been the root cause for the seven passes the Pats’ have picked off in that span – four INTs versus Indianapolis.

Peyton Manning is a watchmaker at the line of scrimmage. Every cog must be perfectly set and timed in order for the offense to work with procession. The Broncos offensive line has done a good job keeping No. 18 clean, giving up just 20 sacks – best in the NFL.

However, in the only two games in which Manning failed to complete 60 percent or more of this passes – losses to New England (53.8%) and Indianapolis (59.2%) – Manning was sacked a total of six times. He also threw an interception in each of those games. Manning threw three picks versus Washington in Week 8 and was sacked twice in that win. Denver hasn’t faced a tough pass rush for a while either, pushing around the likes of San Diego twice, Oakland, Houston, and Tennessee in their last five games.


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 39)

Wilson’s waning play vs. Niners’ knowledgeable defense

Russell Wilson was a dark horse NFL MVP candidate for most of the season. But, with his recent fall from form, questions have been raised about Wilson’s ability to get Seattle over the hump and into the Super Bowl. After averaging 210 yards passing per game on the year, Wilson has tossed for an average of only 127.6 yards over the last three games, including just 108 yards against the Saints.

He’s completed just 52 percent of his passes and lugs a 73.1 QB rating in that span – way off the pace of his 101.2 QB rating on the season. Wilson also isn’t getting the job done with his legs, rushing for just 47 total yards on 10 attempts in that span. If Seattle is going to win Sunday, it needs Wilson to be more than a game manager.

No defense in the NFL knows Wilson better than the Niners. Sunday will be the fourth time these teams will have played over the last 14 months, with San Francisco getting the best of Seattle’s QB in their most recent meeting.

The 49ers limited Wilson to 60 percent passing, held him to two yards rushing, intercepted him once and sacked him twice – including an early sack/fumble from LB NaVorro Bowman that made Wilson think twice about leaving the pocket again. San Francisco, which has limited opposing QBs to a 77.6 rating on the year, had five sacks and two picks versus Carolina last weekend and four sacks in the Wild Card win over the Packers.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Championship opening lines: Broncos, Seahawks favored

The matchups for the AFC and NFC Championships are set and we have two epic showdowns the NFL couldn't have scripted better. One matchup of two old school all-time great quarterbacks and one matchup of new school of young dynamic quarterbacks.

Here are the opening lines for the AFC and NFC Championship:

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-6.5, 54.5)

This is it. Brady vs. Manning XV. What the NFL would never admit they were desperately hoping for and it could be the final time these two greats meet in this tremendous rivalry. The game will be analyzed and over analyzed until next Sunday's game, but for now the Broncos open as 6.5-point home faves against the Patriots. New England did win the Week 12 matchup in overtime, 34-31 after trailing 24-0 early in the game.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 40)

The NFC Championship could be just as exciting when two of the games best young quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick face off. But more than that, these two teams are mirror images of one another. They both are run-first offenses with aggressive hard hitting defenses. Oh yeah and they don't like each other. The Seahawks opened at -3 versus the Niners, who split their the two meetings this season, each winning at home.




NFL betting: AFC title game line moves from -6 to -4.5

The line for the AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos may have opened a little too much in the home side Broncos' favor.

The Broncos opened at -6 at most books following the conclusion of yesterday's Divisional games, but have already been bet to -4.5.

According to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, early sharp money is the engine behind this early move, dropping Denver from -6 to -5 at their sportsbooks. Stewart says it’s been all action on New England, both spread and moneyline, with 82 percent and 88 percent of the action respectively on the road team.

Sharp play, combined with the way the Patriots are playing led to the line move at Sportsbook.ag, said oddsmaker Mike Perry.

"The reason for line move is that both sharp players and a heavy majority of our players were more impressed with what they saw from the Patriots than the Broncos this past week," Perry told Covers. "Both of these betting contingents likes the Pats, so that’s why the line moved as it did."




Return to run sparks Under wins in NFC Playoffs

The NFL may be a passing league now but when it comes to paving the road to the Super Bowl, teams are looking to ground and pound postseason opponents.

This trend is especially prominent in the NFC, where teams have controlled the ball and the clock with their rushing attack, keeping final scores Under the total. All four NFC playoff games have finished below the number, and each of those contests has featured the winner taking to the turf to secure the victory.

New Orleans shocked Philadelphia with a run-focused attack in the Wild Card Round, picking up 185 yards on the ground and San Francisco rushed for 167 yards in its win over Green Bay. The Niners followed that with 126 yards rushing in the win over Carolina Sunday while Seattle marched for 167 yards in its win over the Saints. Those winning teams scored a total of just three passing touchdowns in those playoff victories, compared to a combined five scores on the ground.

And this change in offensive pace isn’t reserved to the NFC, with the AFC also seeing many potent pass attacks turn to the ground game.

New England dominated Indianapolis with 234 yards rushing, but also ran into the end zone six times while Tom Brady passed for a pedestrian 13 of 25 for 198 yards. The Patriots won 43-22 and blew the 51-point total away.

The Denver Broncos also switched gears with the run game leading the charge in Sunday’s victory over San Diego. The Broncos rumbled for 133 yards behind RBs Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. That kept scoring low, with Denver hanging on for a 24-17 win that stayed below the 55-point number.

Unders in the postseason are nothing new to football bettors. Last year’s Wild Card Weekend provided a 0-4 Over/Under record. However, the Divisional Round returned serve with a 4-0 O/U count. The Championship Round produced a 1-1 O/U mark and Super Bowl XLVII played well over the 47.5-point total, with Baltimore beating San Francisco 34-31.

Oddsmakers have set the total for the AFC Championship between New England and Denver at 54.5 while the NFC Championship total is posted at 39.5 points.




NFL line watch: Seahawks bettors search for a FG spread

Spread to bet now

New England Patriots (+4.5) at Denver Broncos

The Patriots were only 8-8 ATS this season, but in their four SU losses (all on the road), there were no blowouts. They got edged by a touchdown in Cincinnati, were taken down by four points twice (Miami, Carolina) and got beat by the Jets in overtime by a field goal. The Pats also got the raw end of calls at New York and Carolina, so they could have easily been 6-2 away from Gillette.

New England just doesn’t get blown out on the road, so it’s worth taking a long look at grabbing the points in what is shaping up as a field-goal game in Colorado. The Patriots are running the ball more than they ever have in the Brady-Belichick Era, and Belichick doesn’t mind playing in tight games in Denver.


Spread to wait on

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Some books have this at three with a bigger vig bite, which indicates that the oddsmakers aren’t all that sure about the extra half a point. It’s been four month since the Niners - disorganized at the time - went in to Seattle and got spanked. Since then San Francisco has figured things out, and playing on the road doesn’t seem to be all that much of an issue.

The concern is that the Niners might be a little worn down after winning two consecutive road elimination games (Green Bay, Carolina), and now have to win in a tough environment. Might be a good idea to get a grip on how fresh the Niners seem at the end of the week before wagering. Seahawks boosters can use that time to shop for a 3-point line with normal -110 vig.


Total to watch

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (39)

This is the lowest posted number in the playoffs - and with good reason. Six consecutive Seattle games have gone Under, and both Niners playoff games (and seven of the last 10) haven’t reached the Over. Both of these teams have crushed the Under, but the adjustment has been made and it looks like it’s time for bettors to adjust as well.

When the teams met way back in September, San Francisco turned over the ball to Seattle five times (two fumbles, three INTs). That’s not likely going to happen again. With Colin Kaepernick confident, the Niners should move the ball.




NFL Championship Sunday betting trends and stats

NFL’s version of the Final Four kicks off this Sunday in the conference championship games, where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets in 15 of 46 title games since the 1990 season - the most recent being the Baltimore Ravens’ victory over New England at Foxboro last year, and the New York Giants’ win at San Francisco two years ago, with both teams going on to capture the coveted Super Bowl.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the championship games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

Note: all results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.

What a rush

Running the football is tantamount to success in the NFL, especially in the playoffs.

It’s no coincidence that since the Giants’ 21-17 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI that 18 of the last 20 straight-up playoff winners have rushed the ball for 100 or more yards, including all eight winners this season.

Teams who have managed to gain 110 or more rushing yards in a conference championship game have gone 19-9 SU and 20-8 ATS, including 9-1 ATS as dogs of four or more points.

While all four of this week’s combatants average more than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, only Denver and San Francisco surrender less than 100 yards on the ground per contest.

The Patriots allow the most yards on the ground, at 130 YPG.


Situationally speaking

The linemakers have done a nice job overall during this round, with favorites checking in at 26-22 ATS and home teams 22-26 ATS since 1990.

Teams off a road win (San Francisco) are 15-11 ATS, while teams off a win but no cover are 12-8 ATS, including 8-3 ATS when riding a pair of wins.

That’s music to the ears of Denver and Seattle backers.


Gravity alert

While high-scoring games are the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round off a high-scoring effort in their last game tend to come back to earth harder than a sky diver with a defective chute.

Half of the 34 teams in this round who put 34 or more points on the scoreboard in a divisional round victory fell short of the Super Bowl, going 17-17 SU and 12-22 ATS.

Worse, if these same teams are taking on an .800 or greater foe they fall to 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in title games.

That puts New England on hard ground this Sunday.


Been there done that

Three of the four head coaches have had the luxury of coaching team in conference championship games – namely Bill Belichick, Jon Fox and Jim Harbaugh.

New England’s Belichick brings a 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS record (0-4 ATS last four) with the Patriots in AFC Championship Games into this week’s fray. Furthermore, “The Hoodie” is 0-4 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points his previous playoff contest.

Meanwhile, Fox has made two NFC Championship Game appearances with Carolina, splitting out 1-1 SU and ATS – both as an underdog.

San Francisco returns to the NFC Championship Game for the third straight year under Jim Harbaugh. The Niners are 1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS in these games under his lead.

Seattle’s Pete Carroll is a conference championship game virgin.


Over there

Points aplenty have forced the linemakers to raise the Over/Under totals bar.

It’s what happens when there have been 29 Overs, 19 Unders and 1 Push in conference championship games.

Surprisingly, the higher the total them more Overs there have been as games with a posted total set at 46 or more points going 10-5 O/U.


Stat of the Week

The last No. 1 seed from the NFC to win a Super Bowl game was the 1999 St. Louis Rams.




AFC Championship action report: Line mistake makes for one wild ride

There are two huge conference championship matchups on the NFL board this Sunday, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos battling for the AFC title, and the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks mixing it up for the NFC crown.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in the AFC Championship Game, the drastic line move that occurred shortly after posting this spread, and where he sees the line landing coming kickoff.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos – Open: -7, Move: -4.5, Move: -5.5

The Brady vs. Manning media blitz was overshadowed – at least in the sports betting industry – by the massive line movement this spread saw once it hit the market. Books opened New England as high as a touchdown underdog after thumping Indianapolis in the Divisional Round and took instant action on the road team, pushing this spread as many as 2.5 points.

“We literally wrote 50 bets to zero bets at that number,” Stewart says of the touchdown opener and action on the Patriots. “No question, we hung a bad opening number because we saw nothing but one-way action.”

Stewart admits the spread was off but is baffled by how far bettors have driven this spread, and the amount on money on New England at the mid-week mark. He points out that the Broncos were double-digit favorites in six of their eight home games during the regular season and easily covered those single-digit home spreads versus Baltimore and Kansas City.

“Bottom line, this team has been dominant at home and while I admit we opened with a bad number of 7, all the money we booked on the Patriots is surprising to me and my crew,” he says. “We’ve gone from needing the Broncos’ opponent in every single game this year, to all of a sudden seeing everyone fading the Broncos here. It is amazing to me.”

Once the spread dropped to Denver –4.5, action started to show up on the home side. Stewart says sharp money came in Monday afternoon and commanded a move to Broncos -5. Another hit from wiseguys forced books to tack on a half point Wednesday morning.

“This is by far one of the more interesting games we’ve booked in recent memory, as the public is supporting the dog and the wiseguys are on the favorite,” Stewart tells Covers. “The public drove this number down and now the sharps are driving it back up. So far 75 percent of the action is on the Patriots and, while sharp money is on the favorite, I don’t think we’ll get back to -6 because of our exposure on the Patriots is already significant enough.”

The total for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game isn’t as volatile as the spread, but has seen its share of adjustments. The number opened 55 and with 70 percent of total wagers siding with the Over, the book has since moved to 56. But Stewart believes this line isn’t done moving yet and could see major sharp influence before Sunday’s game.

“I suspect the wiseguys are waiting for this total to go even higher and I expect their patience will pay off because we’re going to eventually get to 56.5 and maybe, maybe even 57 as we get closer to kickoff,” he says.

NFC Championship action report: Sharps on Seahawks, public loves 49ers[/COLOR][/SIZE]

There are two huge conference championship matchups on the NFL board this Sunday, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos battling for the AFC title, and the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks mixing it up for the NFC crown.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in the NFC Championship Game, the early line moves, and where he sees the line landing coming kickoff.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -3, Move: -3.5

These NFC West rivals know each other all too well, having split their two games during the regular season. However, Seattle covered in both those contests and has drawn the early action in this battle of 11-5 ATS teams.

According to Stewart, sharp money first showed on the Seahawks and forced an extra half a point on the field-goal spread. However, since that adjustment, the public has piled on the underdog 49ers, who have won eight in a row, including two road playoff games.

“We’re seeing way more action on the dog than we are on the favorite,” Stewart tells Covers. “After going to 3.5, we saw a surge of 49ers money but this isn’t a game where we wanted to move the number and go back to -3, because as everyone knows, three is such a live number and we don’t want to get middled or sided.”

With about 70 percent of the handle sitting on the Niners, oddsmakers are juggling the juice, trying to stick to that 3.5-point spread. Sharp money hit the Seahawks again Wednesday morning, forcing a five cent adjustment to the vig from 49ers +3.5 (-125) to +3.5 (-120), with the Seahawks coming back at -3.5 (EVEN).

“This is a game where we’re seeing public money on the dog and sharp money on the favorite, and we kind of anticipated this scenario,” says Stewart. “Our bettors have been all over the 49ers in the playoffs. We’ve seen sharp money support the Seahawks at home all season and unlike last week, they’ve gotten the money more times than not. So this game and the line movement has been somewhat predictable.”

Stewart says the bulk of the action is still to come but they aren’t exposed with liability on either side so far and he doesn’t expect the spread to stray much farther than its current stand, offsetting money by dialing the juice up and down.

As for the total for the NFC Championship Game, the number opened at 41 points and immediately drew money from wiseguys on the Under Sunday evening. That trimmed the total to 40 but could stop action from sharps playing the Under. Their most recent move to 39.5 has finally coaxed Over bettors out of hibernation but it’s not enough to add to this number.

“We respect the Under money we booked so I don’t see us going back to 40 anytime soon,” says Stewart. “We really like where we’re at in this game, both on the side and total.”




Capping NFL rematches: What to keep, throw away for Championship Sunday

Often in the NFL's Conference Championship we see a rematch of two of the AFC and NFC's top teams from the regular season and 2014 is no exception. The NFL got exactly what it wanted with two of the more hyped playoff games in recent memory.

In the AFC, we will be getting the always intriguing story line of Peyton Manning going against nemesis Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Meanwhile, the NFC West rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers will be renewed for a third time this season.

With a lot to look at in terms of correlating the numbers of the original meetings and how they will factor into this weekend, we look at what to keep and what to throw away for these intense rivalry matchups.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-4.5, 55)

Original meeting: New England 34 Denver 31 (Week 12)

What to keep: Surprisingly, for two teams that have quarterbacks who grab all the headlines, the rushing game is extremely important to both the Broncos and the Patriots. In their first meeting, Denver rushed for 280 yards while the Patriots rushed for 119. Both teams average well over 100 yards per game on the ground and hover near 30 rushing attempts. That success carried over to their wins this weekend with New England scoring on the ground for all six of their TD's and 234 yards rushing while the Broncos rushed for 133 yards against the Chargers. With Manning and Brady getting all of the attention from the media, you can forget that both of these teams will be expected to do a lot of their work on the ground this Sunday.

What to throw away: Both teams had uncharacteristic amounts of turnovers in their first meeting this season. New England turned the ball over four times, losing three fumbles and seeing Brady throw one interception. The Broncos had similar problems putting the football on the carpet, losing three fumbles of their own. In total, the Patriots fumbled six times in the game and the Broncos five times. Eleven forced fumbles in a game is an extremely high number and it would be surprising to see that repeated.


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 49)

First meeting: Seattle 29, San Francisco 3 (at Seattle, Week 2)
Second meeting: San Francisco 19, Seattle 17 (at San Francisco, Week 14)

What to keep: The team that has ran the ball most effectively has won the game in both 2013 meetings of these intense NFC West rivals. Seattle outrushed San Francisco 172-100 in the first contest which they won 29-3, while the Niners managed to win the rushing battle at Candlestick in December, holding the Seahawks to 86 yards while running for 163. With both teams built around mobile QBs and elite running backs, this game might once again come down to who can run better (or which defense can stop the run) on their way to the Super Bowl.

Both games between the two have also been low scoring and intense affairs, going under the total with just 32 and 36 points combined in the two respective meetings. San Francisco allows just 14.5 points per game in 2013 and the Seahawks allow just 16.8. With both team's defenses already amongst the most intense in the league it is unlikely that this game will feature less of that top-caliber defensive play we have seen in both games.

What to throw away: Seattle's 29-3 thumping of the Niners earlier in the season should be considered an afterthought as the Niners offense is much more well rounded with the presence of Michael Crabtree in the lineup. Crabtree caught eight passes for 125 yards against the Packers in the Wild Card and his presence opened up opportunities for Anquan Boldin against the Panthers when he caught eight passes if his own for 136 yards Sunday. With Brandon Browner also out of the picture after a PED suspension, the Seahawks secondary will likely struggle to hold a Niners team that averages 25.1 points per game to just a field goal for a second time. Expect the Niners team to look more like the team that played a close game in a 19-17 win at Candlestick than the team that was embarrassed by Seattle in hostile territory earlier in the year. Tread lightly however, as the Niners are 1-4 ATS in Seattle in their last five meetings.




NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Championship Sunday

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 55)

Patriots’ pass rush vs. Broncos’ offensive timing

Lost in the Brady vs. Manning hoopla and the Patriots’ drastic shift in gears to the running game, is New England’s pass rush. The Patriots defense, specifically the guys bombarding the opposing quarterback, are playing their best football of the season.

New England has registered 11 sacks over the past three games, including three sacks on Colts QB Andrew Luck last weekend. The pass rush is throwing opposing offense’s timing off and has been the root cause for the seven passes the Pats’ have picked off in that span – four INTs versus Indianapolis.

Peyton Manning is a watchmaker at the line of scrimmage. Every cog must be perfectly set and timed in order for the offense to work with procession. The Broncos offensive line has done a good job keeping No. 18 clean, giving up just 20 sacks – best in the NFL.

However, in the only two games in which Manning failed to complete 60 percent or more of this passes – losses to New England (53.8%) and Indianapolis (59.2%) – Manning was sacked a total of six times. He also threw an interception in each of those games. Manning threw three picks versus Washington in Week 8 and was sacked twice in that win. Denver hasn’t faced a tough pass rush for a while either, pushing around the likes of San Diego twice, Oakland, Houston, and Tennessee in their last five games.


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 39)

Wilson’s waning play vs. Niners’ knowledgeable defense

Russell Wilson was a dark horse NFL MVP candidate for most of the season. But, with his recent fall from form, questions have been raised about Wilson’s ability to get Seattle over the hump and into the Super Bowl. After averaging 210 yards passing per game on the year, Wilson has tossed for an average of only 127.6 yards over the last three games, including just 108 yards against the Saints.

He’s completed just 52 percent of his passes and lugs a 73.1 QB rating in that span – way off the pace of his 101.2 QB rating on the season. Wilson also isn’t getting the job done with his legs, rushing for just 47 total yards on 10 attempts in that span. If Seattle is going to win Sunday, it needs Wilson to be more than a game manager.

No defense in the NFL knows Wilson better than the Niners. Sunday will be the fourth time these teams will have played over the last 14 months, with San Francisco getting the best of Seattle’s QB in their most recent meeting.

The 49ers limited Wilson to 60 percent passing, held him to two yards rushing, intercepted him once and sacked him twice – including an early sack/fumble from LB NaVorro Bowman that made Wilson think twice about leaving the pocket again. San Francisco, which has limited opposing QBs to a 77.6 rating on the year, had five sacks and two picks versus Carolina last weekend and four sacks in the Wild Card win over the Packers.




NFL road teams, Under profitable in third meetings

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks will meet for the third time this season when the NFC West rivals butt heads in the NFC Championship Game Sunday.

A trilogy of games is not that uncommon, with football bettors witnessing one three-part series already this postseason between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round.

The Chargers lost 24-17 to the Broncos but, thanks to a recovered onside kick and a field goal, the Bolts managed to cover as 8-point road underdogs - a trend that is rounding into form over the last 10 seasons.

Home teams are just 7-7 SU and 5-9 ATS in the third meeting between NFL teams since the 2004-05 season. Favorites have fared a little better, going 9-5 SU and 7-7 ATS in that span. The Seahawks sit as 3.5-point home favorites for Sunday’s game.

And for those thinking that familiarity leans toward the defense, you may be on to something. Teams have posted a 6-8 O/U record in their third installment in that 10-year frame, including San Diego and Denver playing Under the 55-point total last weekend.

Quick reply to this message Reply Reply With Quote Reply With Quote Multi-Quote This Message
Today, 05:32 AM #4
Udog's Avatar
Udog
Udog is online now IWNBTStankees.....

Join Date
Nov 2004
Posts
39,425

Default

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

San Francisco at Seattle
The 49ers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship carrying a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. San Francisco is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 19

Game 301-302: New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 141.602; Denver 141.678
Dunkel Line: Even; 59
Vegas Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (+4 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: San Francisco at Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.597; Seattle 142.834
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Under



NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-120 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 4) at SEATTLE (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

New England at Denver, 3:00 ET
New England: 7-0 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Denver: 17-4 OVER after leading their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half

San Francisco at Seattle, 6:30 ET
San Francisco: 10-2 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Seattle: 11-3 ATS revenging a loss against opponent




NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Patriots were favored in their last 11 playoff games; this is their first road playoff game since losing AFC title game 38-34 (+3) to Colts seven years ago. Patriots are 3-2 in road playoff games with Brady at QB, with only five of his 24 playoff tilts on foreign soil (3-2 in Super Bowls). Belichick is 5-2 in AFC title games, winning twice at Pittsburgh. Manning is 4-10 vs Brady's teams- Broncos (-2.5) got beat at Foxboro 34-31 in OT in Week 12, after leading 24-0 at half in sloppy game where Denver ran ball for 280 yards but turned ball over four times (-1). Patriots are 2-4 in last six road games overall, winning at Houston/Pittsburgh. This is only second time in last nine AFC title games the #'s 1-2 seeds played: NFL-wide, favorites are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight conference title games between 1-2 seeds. Welker will have a big day against his old team, who unwisely let him walk.

49ers got crushed last two times they visited Seattle, 42-13/29-3; in two games vs Seahawks this year (Niners won rematch 19-17 at home), they scored 16 points in five red zone drives, one TD/four FGs- they'll need to do better here. Since 2000, #1 seeds are 3-3 vs spread when facing team in this round that didn't get first round bye; since 2001, #1 seeds are 6-9 overall vs spread in conference title games. This is third year in row 49ers are in this game, splitting last two, with road team winning both. 49ers didn't win a road playoff game from 1970 until LY, but now have won three in row; problem, this is now their 4th straight Sunday on road. Seattle is 5-4 as home favorite this year, with only SU loss to Arizona in Week 16. Harbaugh once beat Carroll's USC team as a 42-point underdog when he was at Stanford; no love lost between the two.




NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing at home against New England

6:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Sunday, January 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patriots at Broncos: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 55)

Peyton Manning is one win from advancing to his third Super Bowl, but he'll have to get past a longtime nemesis when the Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. Manning shattered a number of passing records - including Brady's single-season touchdown mark - and is an overwhelming favorite to win an unprecedented fifth MVP award. Standing in his way is Brady, who is attempting to become the first quarterback to reach six Super Bowls.

It will mark the 15th overall matchup and fourth in the postseason for the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Brady has dominated the rivalry with a 10-4 record against Manning, including a 34-31 overtime win in New England on Nov. 24 - a game in which the Patriots erased a 24-0 halftime deficit. “It’s the Broncos versus the Patriots,” Manning said. “Certainly Tom and I have played against each other a lot. But when you get to the AFC Championship Game, it’s about two good teams that have been through a lot to get there.”

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Broncos as big as 7-point home favorites and sharp money jumped on the Patriots, dropping the line as low as -4.5 with help from the public. Wiseguy action started showing on Denver and forced a move back up to -5.5. The total opened as low as 54.5 and was bet up as high as 56 points.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the mid 50s and winds blowing west at 6 mph, from sideline to sideline.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-5.0) - Broncos (-7.0) + Home field (-3.0) = Broncos -5.0

KEY INJURIES: PATRIOTS: Kenbrell Thompkins WR - (Head) Questionable, Aaron Dobson WR - (Foot) Questionable, Tom Brady - (Flu) Probable. Ryan Allen P - (Shoulder) Questionable. BRONCOS: Rahim Moore S - (Leg) Questionable, Joel Dreessen TE - (Knee) Questionable, Chris Kuper G - (Ankle) Questionable.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This is by far one of the more interesting games we’ve booked in recent memory, as the public is supporting the dog and the wiseguys are on the favorite." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "New England just doesn’t get blown out on the road, so it’s worth taking a long look at grabbing the points in what is shaping up as a field-goal game in Colorado. The Patriots are running the ball more than they ever have in the Brady-Belichick Era, and Belichick doesn’t mind playing in tight games in Denver." - Covers Expert Art Aronson.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Sunday, January 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the Tape: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One of the greatest quarterback rivalries in NFL history will see one more legendary chapter written Sunday afternoon when Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

Manning and the Broncos obliterated NFL scoring records en route to the top seed in the AFC, but had all they could handle in last week's divisional-round win over San Diego. The Patriots cruised past Indianapolis to reach the conference title game for the sixth time in 13 seasons.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Brady has one of the most trying seasons of his illustrious career, having to deal with absences to key targets for most of the year. He still managed to finish sixth among NFL quarterbacks in passing yards (4,343) with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The running game, which has been one of the team's rare weak spots over the years, had a strong campaign - finishing ninth in the league in total yards (2,065) while racking up 19 touchdowns.

No team in league history has been as prolific as the 2013 Broncos, who saw Manning put together one of the greatest quarterbacking seasons ever. The 38-year-old guided an offense that finished with 5,444 passing yards - over 500 more than the next-closest team - with a staggering 55 TDs against just 10 interceptions. Manning's assault on the record books helped open things up for the running game, which finished 15th in yards but racked up 16 scores.

Edge: Denver


Defense

As with the offense, New England had to deal with several key absences on defense - and as with the offense, those injuries barely slowed the team down. The Patriots finished near the middle of the pack in passing yards against (3,824) but limited foes to just 25 passing touchdowns while racking up 17 interceptions. The run defense was more porous - finishing third-last in the league in yards allowed (2,145) - but surrendered just 11 touchdowns all season.

The Broncos have had their share of injury woes, as well - and the latest may be the most damaging, as defensive back Chris Harris suffered a torn ACL and is lost for the remainder of the playoffs. It's a major development for a Denver defense that allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the regular season (4,070), giving up 29 touchdowns while snagging 17 interceptions. The Broncos gave up just 1,626 yards on the ground, but gave up 15 touchdowns.

Edge: New England


Special Teams

New England boasted an above-average return game in the regular season, ranking 12th in average kickoff return yardage (24) and 11th in average punt return (10.8). The Patriots were even better on the other side of the ball, allowing the fifth-lowest kick return average (20.8) and tying for eighth in punt return defense (7.6). Kicker Steven Gostkowski was an unbelievable 38-for-41 on field-goal chances in the regular season, but was held without a kick last week.

The Broncos' return game is led by speedster Trinton Holliday, who had two return touchdowns and helped guide Denver to the sixth-highest kickoff return average (25). Denver wasn't nearly as effective on the defensive side, allowing the highest kickoff return rate in the NFL (29.3) and surrendering a touchdown. Veteran placekicker Matt Prater missed just one of 26 field-goal opportunities in the regular season, and went 1-for-2 in last week's win over the Chargers.

Edge: New England


Notable Quotable

"It's definitely a test. He hard counts you to try to get you to move, see what you're in. As a defense, you've just got to not show him what you're in. You've got to do a great job of disguising, just not giving him good idea of what you want to run." - Patriots CB Aqib Talib on Manning

"I think the one thing that jumps out about Tom is his consistency. I feel he's been a better player each year than he was the year before. That speaks to his work ethic in the offseason, his refusal to be complacent or satisfied." - Manning

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

San Francisco at Seattle
The 49ers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship carrying a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. San Francisco is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 19

Game 301-302: New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 141.602; Denver 141.678
Dunkel Line: Even; 59
Vegas Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (+4 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: San Francisco at Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.597; Seattle 142.834
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Under



NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-120 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 4) at SEATTLE (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

New England at Denver, 3:00 ET
New England: 7-0 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Denver: 17-4 OVER after leading their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half

San Francisco at Seattle, 6:30 ET
San Francisco: 10-2 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Seattle: 11-3 ATS revenging a loss against opponent




NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Patriots were favored in their last 11 playoff games; this is their first road playoff game since losing AFC title game 38-34 (+3) to Colts seven years ago. Patriots are 3-2 in road playoff games with Brady at QB, with only five of his 24 playoff tilts on foreign soil (3-2 in Super Bowls). Belichick is 5-2 in AFC title games, winning twice at Pittsburgh. Manning is 4-10 vs Brady's teams- Broncos (-2.5) got beat at Foxboro 34-31 in OT in Week 12, after leading 24-0 at half in sloppy game where Denver ran ball for 280 yards but turned ball over four times (-1). Patriots are 2-4 in last six road games overall, winning at Houston/Pittsburgh. This is only second time in last nine AFC title games the #'s 1-2 seeds played: NFL-wide, favorites are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight conference title games between 1-2 seeds. Welker will have a big day against his old team, who unwisely let him walk.

49ers got crushed last two times they visited Seattle, 42-13/29-3; in two games vs Seahawks this year (Niners won rematch 19-17 at home), they scored 16 points in five red zone drives, one TD/four FGs- they'll need to do better here. Since 2000, #1 seeds are 3-3 vs spread when facing team in this round that didn't get first round bye; since 2001, #1 seeds are 6-9 overall vs spread in conference title games. This is third year in row 49ers are in this game, splitting last two, with road team winning both. 49ers didn't win a road playoff game from 1970 until LY, but now have won three in row; problem, this is now their 4th straight Sunday on road. Seattle is 5-4 as home favorite this year, with only SU loss to Arizona in Week 16. Harbaugh once beat Carroll's USC team as a 42-point underdog when he was at Stanford; no love lost between the two.




NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing at home against New England

6:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Sunday, January 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patriots at Broncos: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 55)

Peyton Manning is one win from advancing to his third Super Bowl, but he'll have to get past a longtime nemesis when the Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. Manning shattered a number of passing records - including Brady's single-season touchdown mark - and is an overwhelming favorite to win an unprecedented fifth MVP award. Standing in his way is Brady, who is attempting to become the first quarterback to reach six Super Bowls.

It will mark the 15th overall matchup and fourth in the postseason for the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Brady has dominated the rivalry with a 10-4 record against Manning, including a 34-31 overtime win in New England on Nov. 24 - a game in which the Patriots erased a 24-0 halftime deficit. “It’s the Broncos versus the Patriots,” Manning said. “Certainly Tom and I have played against each other a lot. But when you get to the AFC Championship Game, it’s about two good teams that have been through a lot to get there.”

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Broncos as big as 7-point home favorites and sharp money jumped on the Patriots, dropping the line as low as -4.5 with help from the public. Wiseguy action started showing on Denver and forced a move back up to -5.5. The total opened as low as 54.5 and was bet up as high as 56 points.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the mid 50s and winds blowing west at 6 mph, from sideline to sideline.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-5.0) - Broncos (-7.0) + Home field (-3.0) = Broncos -5.0

KEY INJURIES: PATRIOTS: Kenbrell Thompkins WR - (Head) Questionable, Aaron Dobson WR - (Foot) Questionable, Tom Brady - (Flu) Probable. Ryan Allen P - (Shoulder) Questionable. BRONCOS: Rahim Moore S - (Leg) Questionable, Joel Dreessen TE - (Knee) Questionable, Chris Kuper G - (Ankle) Questionable.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This is by far one of the more interesting games we’ve booked in recent memory, as the public is supporting the dog and the wiseguys are on the favorite." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "New England just doesn’t get blown out on the road, so it’s worth taking a long look at grabbing the points in what is shaping up as a field-goal game in Colorado. The Patriots are running the ball more than they ever have in the Brady-Belichick Era, and Belichick doesn’t mind playing in tight games in Denver." - Covers Expert Art Aronson.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Sunday, January 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the Tape: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One of the greatest quarterback rivalries in NFL history will see one more legendary chapter written Sunday afternoon when Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

Manning and the Broncos obliterated NFL scoring records en route to the top seed in the AFC, but had all they could handle in last week's divisional-round win over San Diego. The Patriots cruised past Indianapolis to reach the conference title game for the sixth time in 13 seasons.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Brady has one of the most trying seasons of his illustrious career, having to deal with absences to key targets for most of the year. He still managed to finish sixth among NFL quarterbacks in passing yards (4,343) with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The running game, which has been one of the team's rare weak spots over the years, had a strong campaign - finishing ninth in the league in total yards (2,065) while racking up 19 touchdowns.

No team in league history has been as prolific as the 2013 Broncos, who saw Manning put together one of the greatest quarterbacking seasons ever. The 38-year-old guided an offense that finished with 5,444 passing yards - over 500 more than the next-closest team - with a staggering 55 TDs against just 10 interceptions. Manning's assault on the record books helped open things up for the running game, which finished 15th in yards but racked up 16 scores.

Edge: Denver


Defense

As with the offense, New England had to deal with several key absences on defense - and as with the offense, those injuries barely slowed the team down. The Patriots finished near the middle of the pack in passing yards against (3,824) but limited foes to just 25 passing touchdowns while racking up 17 interceptions. The run defense was more porous - finishing third-last in the league in yards allowed (2,145) - but surrendered just 11 touchdowns all season.

The Broncos have had their share of injury woes, as well - and the latest may be the most damaging, as defensive back Chris Harris suffered a torn ACL and is lost for the remainder of the playoffs. It's a major development for a Denver defense that allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the regular season (4,070), giving up 29 touchdowns while snagging 17 interceptions. The Broncos gave up just 1,626 yards on the ground, but gave up 15 touchdowns.

Edge: New England


Special Teams

New England boasted an above-average return game in the regular season, ranking 12th in average kickoff return yardage (24) and 11th in average punt return (10.8). The Patriots were even better on the other side of the ball, allowing the fifth-lowest kick return average (20.8) and tying for eighth in punt return defense (7.6). Kicker Steven Gostkowski was an unbelievable 38-for-41 on field-goal chances in the regular season, but was held without a kick last week.

The Broncos' return game is led by speedster Trinton Holliday, who had two return touchdowns and helped guide Denver to the sixth-highest kickoff return average (25). Denver wasn't nearly as effective on the defensive side, allowing the highest kickoff return rate in the NFL (29.3) and surrendering a touchdown. Veteran placekicker Matt Prater missed just one of 26 field-goal opportunities in the regular season, and went 1-for-2 in last week's win over the Chargers.

Edge: New England


Notable Quotable

"It's definitely a test. He hard counts you to try to get you to move, see what you're in. As a defense, you've just got to not show him what you're in. You've got to do a great job of disguising, just not giving him good idea of what you want to run." - Patriots CB Aqib Talib on Manning

"I think the one thing that jumps out about Tom is his consistency. I feel he's been a better player each year than he was the year before. That speaks to his work ethic in the offseason, his refusal to be complacent or satisfied." - Manning

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Championships

January 17, 2014


Divisional Playoff Recap

After watching the ‘over’ dominate the NFL gridiron all season, it’s fair to say that things are starting to balance out in the playoffs. The ‘under’ went 3-1 in the Divisional Playoffs round and is now 6-2 (75%) in this year’s postseason.

Championship History

There hasn’t been a dominant total trend to back or fade in the championship round. The NFC and AFC title games have both seen the ‘over’ go 6-4 (60%) in their last 10 matchups but the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 the last two years.

During this span, we’ve only had one matchup with a total listed in the fifties, the 2010 NFC Championship between the Saints and Vikings, which went ‘over’ the number. On the other side of the spectrum, we can see below that there were five games with totals listed below 40 and surprisingly, the ‘over’ went 3-2 in those matchups.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2003-2013)

Year Result Total

2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, UNDER

2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, UNDER

2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER

2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER

2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER

2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER

2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER

2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 at Denver 17 41, OVER

2004-2005 New England 41 at Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER

2003-2004 New England 24 vs. Indianapolis 14 43, UNDER


NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2003-2013)

Year Result Total

2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, OVER

2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 42, UNDER

2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, UNDER

2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER

2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER

2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 at Green Bay 20 41, OVER

2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER

2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER

2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER

2003-2004 Carolina 14 at Philadelphia 3 36.5, UNDER


AFC Championship

New England at Denver: This total opened 54 ½ and has been bet up to 56, with a few shops going to 56 ½ and I believe this number will close higher. The weather is expected to be perfect and that should only help Denver’s top-ranked offense (37 PPG, 452 YPG) against a New England defense (376 YPG), which gave up 386 yards to a less-talented Colts team last Sunday. The Broncos defense (24 PPG) isn’t great by any stretch and losing defensive back Chris Harris to a knee injury will be tough to replace.

When the teams met from Foxboro in Week 12, the Patriots rallied past the Broncos for a 34-31 victory in overtime. The Broncos and Patriots had comparable numbers in first downs (28-27), yardage (412-440) and more importantly turnovers (4-3), which created one defensive score and plenty of short tracks for both teams.

These teams met in the 2012 regular season as well and New England captured a 31-21 win at home over Denver. In this meeting, the Patriots ran for 251 yards on the Broncos and most believe they’ll try to duplicate this blueprint on Sunday and keep Peyton Manning off the field. While we noted that Denver’s defense isn’t great, its last three opponents have been held under 100 yards on the ground, and that includes San Diego’s 65-yard effort last weekend.

The Patriots started the season with a 5-3 mark to the ‘under’ but the ‘over’ has gone 7-2 in their last nine games. Conversely, Denver saw its first eight games go ‘over’ the number before watching the ‘under’ go 6-3 in its final nine games.

Tom Brady and New England averaged 25.1 PPG on the road this season and that includes a six-point effort at Cincinnati. Defensively, the unit allowed 21.6 PPG in eight road contests.

Since Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, he’s led the team to a 15-3 record in 18 home games. Over that span, the Broncos have scored 30-plus points in 14 games. In the four other outcomes, Denver scored 25, 27, 20 and 24 points, which occurred last week versus San Diego. Against the Chargers, the Broncos were intercepted in the endzone at the end of the first-half, they missed a field goal and they had to settle for another field goal after failing to convert a short third-down conversion. Instead of seven scores, Denver had four on just eight possessions.

NFC Championship

San Francisco at Seattle: This total has received plenty of action with the number dropping from 41 to 38 ½ as of Friday and based on the last four meetings between the pair, the movement seems correct.

Dec. 8, 2013 – San Francisco 19 vs. Seattle 17 (Under 41)
Sept. 15, 2013 – Seattle 29 vs. San Francisco 3 (Under 44)
Dec. 23, 2012 – Seattle 42 vs. San Francisco 13 (Over 40 ½)
Oct. 18, 2012 – San Francisco 13 vs. Seattle 6 (Under 37 ½)

Also, the Seahawks (14.4 PPG, 273 YPG) own the best defense in the league and the 49ers defense is ranked third in points (17 PPG) and fifth in yards (316 YPG). Seattle’s defense has been ever better the last six weeks (11.2 PPG), which includes last Sunday’s 23-15 win over the Saints. The ‘under’ has gone 6-0 during this span and it’s not just the defense helping the cause. Even though the Seahawks have scored a combined 50 points in their last two games, the offense was held to 269 and 277 total yards. The attack is sputtering and second-year quarterback Russell Wilson is starting to show flaws.

San Francisco only surrendered 10 points to Carolina in last week’s Divisional Playoff round but the Panthers did move the football. In case you forgot, they got stuffed on the goal line twice, once turning the ball over on downs and the second time settling for a 24-yard field goal. Do the math and it’s fair to say that Carolina left 11 points off the board.

One team that continues to leave points off the board is San Francisco, despite showing the ability to move the ball. During the 49ers’ current eight-game winning streak, they’re averaging 25.6 PPG and they’ve posted 300-plus yards as well. The issue with the San Francisco is execution. Over the eight-game span, the 49ers have scored 43 times. Delving into those numbers further, kicker Phil Dawson has accounted for 24 field goals while the offense and special teams has produced 19 touchdowns.

Dawson has been automatic this season and you could argue that the former Texas Longhorns standout has been the best free agent acquisition the 49ers have made. Due to a 14-year stint in Cleveland, he’s only been in three playoff games in his career but it’s hard to ignore the fact that he’s 8-of-8 in those contests.

Fearless Predictions

After last week’s 1-3 effort, our bankroll is down a little more than three bucks ($330). I normally lean to the opposite of the betting public but it’s hard to disagree with them this week. We’ll need to win out to get back in the black and with only three games left, the clock is ticking unless you’re playing the ‘over’ in next week’s Pro Bowl (which has been as automatic as Dawson). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Denver 56
Best Under: Seattle-San Francisco 39 ½
Best Team Total: Over Denver 30 ½

Two-Team Total Teaser (6-Point, +100):
Over 50 New England-Denver
Under 45 ½ San Francisco-Seattle

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

There are two huge conference championship matchups on the NFL board this Sunday, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos battling for the AFC title, and the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks mixing it up for the NFC crown.

We talk with oddsmakers about the action coming in the both games and where lines landing coming kickoff.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - Open: -7, Move: -4.5, Move: -5.5, Move: -5

Subplots abound in the AFC Championship Game as legendary quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning go head-to-head one more time.

The two teams met in Week 12, with the Patriots earning the 34-31 OT victory and covering as 1-point home faves. The combined 65 points easily went over the closing 54-point total

Books opened this line as high as Denver -7, and bettors lined up to grab the underdog Patriots at that number. But even with the line movement, Pats money has still flooded in. Until the current number, that is, which Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, says is a number seeing "dead even" action.

"The action on the Patriots has definitely slowed down in the past few days," Stewart says. "But no question we're still seeing more Patriots money than Broncos money. Since going back to Broncos -5.5, we saw 75 percent Patriots money at that number, but on Thursday night we went back to Broncos -5 and at that number the action is dead even. As we get closer to game time, I do expect us to see more and more Broncos money come in at -5."

The total - which opened 56 - remained relatively calm for the majority of the week, but as weather forecasts remain fairly positive, the number has climbed up and up.

"I did say this total would be moving up and as we get closer to gametime," he says. "As we saw more and more money bet over 56 and 56.5, we went to 57 on Friday afternoon. At 57, great two-way action but I do think we'll need to get to 57.5 if we want to offset all the money we booked over 56 and 56.5, but we will see. As always with Broncos games, I'm concerned about Over money flooding the market on game day and if we do see a surge of over money come in, we'll move off our 57 and get to 57.5 or even 58."


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

The old adage "familiarity breeds contempt" certainly applies here as the 49ers and Seahawks meet for the third time this season. It's no secret that the two franchises aren't fond of each other.

The two teams were two of the NFL's best ATS bets in the regular season, each posting an 11-5 record. Covering versus the Seahawks was a bugaboo for San Fran in the regular season. The 49ers could not cash in for their backers in either game this season and are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings with the Seahawks.

Books opened with the home team as 3-point faves and bettors have nudged it to -3.5 as we head into Sunday evening's start time.

"Seattle opened -3 and we got sharp bet in less than 15 minutes, so moved to Seattle -3.5 (even)," says Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag. "The line has been at that number pretty much all week. While 72 percent of cash is backing the 49ers, we expect to stay on this number until kickoff as we want a decision on this game, so going back to -3 doesn't make much sense to us."

As far as the moneyline is concerned, Perry states that 65 percent of moneyline cash is backing San Francisco (+150).

Much like the AFC game, the total hasn't seen a whole lot of movement yet. The majority of books opened the total at 40, but Perry confirms that as of yet, sharp bettors have avoided the total.

"No wiseguy plays on the total, which opened 40 and dipped down to 39.5," he says. "Sixty percent of cash is on the Over."




NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

The Championship games are set where the winner of each moves on to the Superbowl.

In the AFC Championship game, New England travels to Denver where the Broncos are 5.5-point home favorite with the total at 56.

In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers travel to Seattle where the Seahawks are 3.5-point home favorites with the total at 39.

Here is one injury on each team that may affect the outcome of the game.

Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (Concussion, Questionable)

Harvin missed most of the regular season with a hip injury, but was deemed healthy enough to play in Seattle's divisional playoff win against the Saints. Harvin was injured once again after taking two big hits and is yet to be cleared to practice from concussion. The Seahawks have struggled passing the ball this season and if Harvin isn't cleared to play, the trend will likely continue. Seattle's passing game has been a concern during the postseason with Russell Wilson throwing for only103 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Carlos Rogers, CB, San Francisco 49ers (Hamstring, Questionable)

Cornerback Carlos Rogers has been out since the final game of the regular season. In the regular season, Rogers had 47 tackles and two interceptions. The 49ers travel to Seattle facing a Seahawks team that has had limited success in throwing the ball in the post season but have been dominant rushing the ball. If the 49ers are without Rogers again, the Seahawks passing offense may find the spark they have been missing through the air.

Ryan Allen, New England Patriots (Shoulder, Questionable)

In the regular season, punter Ryan Allen had 76 punts averaging 45.9 yards. He had 29 punts inside the 20 and a long of 65. If Allen is unable to start against the Broncos, the Patriots would be relying on Stephen Gostkowski to handle all of the kicking and punting duties. In a game that is predicted to be high scoring against two offensive heavyweights, field position really may come in to play and the Patriots may fall behind in special teams.

Chris Harris, CB, Denver Broncos (ACL, Out)

In the regular season Harris had 65 tackles and three interceptions, although he has not been statistically great in the postseason, That said, Harris has still been a key player in the Broncos secondary. Without the Broncos cornerback, the Patriots passing offense could take advantage of deep balls and passing plays. Harris has played more defensive snaps than any other Broncos player in the regular season and his versatility will be missed with the ability to play either side, outside or in the slot.




NFL betting: Championship Sunday weather report

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 56.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-50s with sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 39.5)

The forecast is calling for a bit of fog and temperatures in the low-40s. There is a nine percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the south endzone at 2 mph.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

San Francisco at Seattle
The 49ers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship carrying a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. San Francisco is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 19

Game 301-302: New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 141.602; Denver 141.678
Dunkel Line: Even; 59
Vegas Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (+4 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: San Francisco at Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.597; Seattle 142.834
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Under



NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-120 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 4) at SEATTLE (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

New England at Denver, 3:00 ET
New England: 7-0 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Denver: 17-4 OVER after leading their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half

San Francisco at Seattle, 6:30 ET
San Francisco: 10-2 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Seattle: 11-3 ATS revenging a loss against opponent




NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Patriots were favored in their last 11 playoff games; this is their first road playoff game since losing AFC title game 38-34 (+3) to Colts seven years ago. Patriots are 3-2 in road playoff games with Brady at QB, with only five of his 24 playoff tilts on foreign soil (3-2 in Super Bowls). Belichick is 5-2 in AFC title games, winning twice at Pittsburgh. Manning is 4-10 vs Brady's teams- Broncos (-2.5) got beat at Foxboro 34-31 in OT in Week 12, after leading 24-0 at half in sloppy game where Denver ran ball for 280 yards but turned ball over four times (-1). Patriots are 2-4 in last six road games overall, winning at Houston/Pittsburgh. This is only second time in last nine AFC title games the #'s 1-2 seeds played: NFL-wide, favorites are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight conference title games between 1-2 seeds. Welker will have a big day against his old team, who unwisely let him walk.

49ers got crushed last two times they visited Seattle, 42-13/29-3; in two games vs Seahawks this year (Niners won rematch 19-17 at home), they scored 16 points in five red zone drives, one TD/four FGs- they'll need to do better here. Since 2000, #1 seeds are 3-3 vs spread when facing team in this round that didn't get first round bye; since 2001, #1 seeds are 6-9 overall vs spread in conference title games. This is third year in row 49ers are in this game, splitting last two, with road team winning both. 49ers didn't win a road playoff game from 1970 until LY, but now have won three in row; problem, this is now their 4th straight Sunday on road. Seattle is 5-4 as home favorite this year, with only SU loss to Arizona in Week 16. Harbaugh once beat Carroll's USC team as a 42-point underdog when he was at Stanford; no love lost between the two.




NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing at home against New England

6:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Sunday, January 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patriots at Broncos: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 55)

Peyton Manning is one win from advancing to his third Super Bowl, but he'll have to get past a longtime nemesis when the Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. Manning shattered a number of passing records - including Brady's single-season touchdown mark - and is an overwhelming favorite to win an unprecedented fifth MVP award. Standing in his way is Brady, who is attempting to become the first quarterback to reach six Super Bowls.

It will mark the 15th overall matchup and fourth in the postseason for the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Brady has dominated the rivalry with a 10-4 record against Manning, including a 34-31 overtime win in New England on Nov. 24 - a game in which the Patriots erased a 24-0 halftime deficit. “It’s the Broncos versus the Patriots,” Manning said. “Certainly Tom and I have played against each other a lot. But when you get to the AFC Championship Game, it’s about two good teams that have been through a lot to get there.”

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Broncos as big as 7-point home favorites and sharp money jumped on the Patriots, dropping the line as low as -4.5 with help from the public. Wiseguy action started showing on Denver and forced a move back up to -5.5. The total opened as low as 54.5 and was bet up as high as 56 points.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the mid 50s and winds blowing west at 6 mph, from sideline to sideline.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-5.0) - Broncos (-7.0) + Home field (-3.0) = Broncos -5.0

KEY INJURIES: PATRIOTS: Kenbrell Thompkins WR - (Head) Questionable, Aaron Dobson WR - (Foot) Questionable, Tom Brady - (Flu) Probable. Ryan Allen P - (Shoulder) Questionable. BRONCOS: Rahim Moore S - (Leg) Questionable, Joel Dreessen TE - (Knee) Questionable, Chris Kuper G - (Ankle) Questionable.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This is by far one of the more interesting games we’ve booked in recent memory, as the public is supporting the dog and the wiseguys are on the favorite." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "New England just doesn’t get blown out on the road, so it’s worth taking a long look at grabbing the points in what is shaping up as a field-goal game in Colorado. The Patriots are running the ball more than they ever have in the Brady-Belichick Era, and Belichick doesn’t mind playing in tight games in Denver." - Covers Expert Art Aronson.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Sunday, January 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the Tape: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One of the greatest quarterback rivalries in NFL history will see one more legendary chapter written Sunday afternoon when Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

Manning and the Broncos obliterated NFL scoring records en route to the top seed in the AFC, but had all they could handle in last week's divisional-round win over San Diego. The Patriots cruised past Indianapolis to reach the conference title game for the sixth time in 13 seasons.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Brady has one of the most trying seasons of his illustrious career, having to deal with absences to key targets for most of the year. He still managed to finish sixth among NFL quarterbacks in passing yards (4,343) with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The running game, which has been one of the team's rare weak spots over the years, had a strong campaign - finishing ninth in the league in total yards (2,065) while racking up 19 touchdowns.

No team in league history has been as prolific as the 2013 Broncos, who saw Manning put together one of the greatest quarterbacking seasons ever. The 38-year-old guided an offense that finished with 5,444 passing yards - over 500 more than the next-closest team - with a staggering 55 TDs against just 10 interceptions. Manning's assault on the record books helped open things up for the running game, which finished 15th in yards but racked up 16 scores.

Edge: Denver


Defense

As with the offense, New England had to deal with several key absences on defense - and as with the offense, those injuries barely slowed the team down. The Patriots finished near the middle of the pack in passing yards against (3,824) but limited foes to just 25 passing touchdowns while racking up 17 interceptions. The run defense was more porous - finishing third-last in the league in yards allowed (2,145) - but surrendered just 11 touchdowns all season.

The Broncos have had their share of injury woes, as well - and the latest may be the most damaging, as defensive back Chris Harris suffered a torn ACL and is lost for the remainder of the playoffs. It's a major development for a Denver defense that allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the regular season (4,070), giving up 29 touchdowns while snagging 17 interceptions. The Broncos gave up just 1,626 yards on the ground, but gave up 15 touchdowns.

Edge: New England


Special Teams

New England boasted an above-average return game in the regular season, ranking 12th in average kickoff return yardage (24) and 11th in average punt return (10.8). The Patriots were even better on the other side of the ball, allowing the fifth-lowest kick return average (20.8) and tying for eighth in punt return defense (7.6). Kicker Steven Gostkowski was an unbelievable 38-for-41 on field-goal chances in the regular season, but was held without a kick last week.

The Broncos' return game is led by speedster Trinton Holliday, who had two return touchdowns and helped guide Denver to the sixth-highest kickoff return average (25). Denver wasn't nearly as effective on the defensive side, allowing the highest kickoff return rate in the NFL (29.3) and surrendering a touchdown. Veteran placekicker Matt Prater missed just one of 26 field-goal opportunities in the regular season, and went 1-for-2 in last week's win over the Chargers.

Edge: New England


Notable Quotable

"It's definitely a test. He hard counts you to try to get you to move, see what you're in. As a defense, you've just got to not show him what you're in. You've got to do a great job of disguising, just not giving him good idea of what you want to run." - Patriots CB Aqib Talib on Manning

"I think the one thing that jumps out about Tom is his consistency. I feel he's been a better player each year than he was the year before. That speaks to his work ethic in the offseason, his refusal to be complacent or satisfied." - Manning


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Sunday, January 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
49ers at Seahawks: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 38.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are riding an eight-game winning streak and have posted back-to-back postseason road victories, but a return trip to the Super Bowl will hinge on overcoming a bitter rival and a venue that has been a house of horrors. The 49ers will visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in the NFC Championship Game, seeking to erase a pair of ugly defeats in their last two trips to the Pacific Northwest. Seattle has won the last two home matchups with the 49ers by a combined 71-16 score.

The Seahawks held off San Francisco to capture the NFC West title due in large part to their dominance at CenturyLink Field, where they are 16-1 over the past two seasons, including last week's 23-15 victory over New Orleans. The teams have split the past four meetings, with San Francisco prevailing 19-17 at home on Dec. 8 to avenge a 29-3 beating in Seattle in Week 2. “We’re ready to go,” 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick said. "We’re a different team than the last time we played them up there."

LINE HISTORY: Seattle opened as a field-goal home favorite and sharp action came in hard on the host, tacking a half-point hook on the line. The public money has sided with the red-hot Niners, however, and books are trying to stay at 3.5 by adjusting the vig on the Seahawks. The total opened at 41 points and action on the Under has pushed this number as low as 38.5. Books are bracing for wiseguys to come back on the Over if it continues to fall.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for mostly cloudy skies and a 14 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW, from corner to corner, but will only reach speeds of 1 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-6.0) - Seahawks (-7.3) + Home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -4.3

KEY INJUIRES: 49ERS: Carlos Rogers CB - (Hamstring) Probable, Will Tukuafu FB - (Knee) Questionable. SEAHAWKS: Percy Harvin WR, (Concussion) Doubtful, K.J. Wright LB - (Foot) Questionable

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Our bettors have been all over the 49ers in the playoffs. We’ve seen sharp money support the Seahawks at home all season and unlike last week, they’ve gotten the money more times than not. So this game and the line movement has been somewhat predictable." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

WHY SHARPS SAY: "It’s been four months since the Niners - disorganized at the time - went in to Seattle and got spanked. Since then, San Francisco has figured things out and playing on the road doesn’t seem to be all that much of an issue." - Covers Expert Art Aronson.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL wants officials to 'set the tone early' for 49ers-Seahawks

January 19, 2014 1:04 pm ET

The NFL told the Seahawks-49ers refs to set the tone early. The NFL told the Seahawks-49ers refs to set the tone early. (USATSI)

There's a pretty good chance that Sunday evening's NFC Championship Game between the 49ers and Seahawks -- NFC West rivals who don't care for each other -- could get chippy. The game officials have been instructed not to let that happen though.

According to NFL Network, NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino used footage of the first half from last week's 49ers-Panthers divisional round game as an example of what should not happen.

Additionally Blandino told the officials running Sunday's game, as well as the teams, that the zebras will "set the tone early" and "not let the game get out of control."

The 49ers-Panthers game was one of the chippiest we've seen all season. There were multiple early personal-foul flags as well as a pair of headbutts, one of from each side (though only Carolina was flagged).

If the NFL gets that sort of game in the early going of San Francisco-Seattle, things could get out of hand quickly.

The obvious downside is trying to influence the game early could limit some of the physicality of what's expected to be an extremely physical contest.

The reality is that the league probably can't win. Not enough flags and the refs have "lost control." Too many flags and the refs won't "let the teams play."

It's a fine line to walk. The most important thing for everyone involved is that the refs are consistent.