The Bum's NFL Playoff POD'S, STAT'S NEWS PLAYOFF GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, January 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 3:00 PM ET Denver -4.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Denver - Under 56.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Going aganist my usual saying....Don't bet aganist Brady on prime time......well its not prime time.......

Lay the points....

[StarDust Bum]

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:


San Francisco - 6:30 PM ET San Francisco +4 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Seattle - Under 40 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl XLVIII opening line report: Bettors jump on Denver, move odds

The biggest spread in sports is sitting on the fence, with oddsmakers setting Super Bowl XLVIII between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks as a pick’em - the first pick’em spread in Super Bowl betting history.

However, that dead-even spread may not be there for long with online sportsbooks reporting early action on Denver.

Sportsbook.ag is reporting that 93 percent of the early money was on Denver in the first 15 minutes of betting. That forced a move to Denver -1, which took 89 percent of the action on the Broncos and pushed the spread to a field goal.

The drastic move and the potential for early-bird bettors to middle the biggest game of the season isn’t bothering oddsmakers, who know there is much, much, much more to come from the betting public before February 2.

“The amount of action in such a short time doesn’t worry us,” Mike Perry, of Sportsbook.ag said when asked about the potential for bettors to middle the Super Bowl with bets on Denver (Pick) and Seattle (+3).

The Broncos looked dominant in their win over the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship, winning 26-16 as a 5.5-point home favorite. Denver veteran quarterback Peyton Manning was precise as ever, going 32 for 43 for 400 yards and two touchdowns.

In Seattle, the Seahawks flexed their muscles defensively, making a game-saving interception in the end zone to seal a 23-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship, covering as 3.5-point home chalk.

“Though I preferred to favor Seattle ultimately, with the other guys’ opinions, I settled with the original pick,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club tells Covers.

Korner and his stable of oddsmakers released early Super Bowl spreads for the four possible matchups last week, and are sticking to their original number of a pick’em between Seattle and Denver.

While Korner may be leaning a little toward the Seahawks, he doesn’t discount the edge the Broncos have under center with Manning playing in his third Super Bowl and Seattle QB Russell Wilson making his Big Game debut in just his second year in the league.

“I think (experience) is a big edge but Seattle is the slightly better team right now,” he says. “If the line was made after half the season was done, Denver would have been a big favorite. Not now though.”

Perhaps the big question on everyone’s mind heading into Super Bowl XLVIII is whether the cold New Jersey weather will have an impact or not, with this being the first outdoor cold weather Super Bowl. Both teams are used to playing in the elements.

“We saw real crappy weather earlier in the year and the offenses exploded,” says Korner. “All I can say is if it's really windy, the better rushing team will be better off.”

As for the total, Korner’s group sent out a suggested number of 49 points while online books posted an opening total of 48.

“We sent out 49. Two factors will play on the closing line. The weather and the fact everyone will bet the Over no matter what we put up if the weather is OK,” says Korner. “Just like they bet both championship games Over. Didn't turn out so well there for them.”

[StarDust Bum]

Broncos/Seahawks primer

January 20, 2014


Super Bowl XLVIII
Met Life Stadium
East Rutherford, NJ
February 2, 6:30 PM EST

Denver Broncos (15-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

Line Moves:

The Seahawks opened as one-point favorites at most outlets, while the total opened between 47 ½ and 48. However, the game was adjusted quickly at several spots after money moved on Denver. The Broncos are now 1 ½-point favorites at most betting shops and a handful have Denver -2 ½. The offshore outfit Sportsbook.ag had Denver -3 last night after it was flooded with Broncos money. They've moved the number down a hook with adjusted money as of Monday - Denver -2 ½ (-125).

Super Bowl History:

Broncos are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history and their first since 1998. Denver lost its first four Super Bowl appearances, while winning its last two in Super Bowl XXXI and XXXII.

Seahawks are participating in their second Super Bowl ever, with the first appearance coming in Super Bowl XL against the Steelers. Seattle fell to Pittsburgh, 21-10, while failing to cover as four-point underdogs.

Path to the Super Bowl:

-- Broncos beat the Chargers, 24-17 as eight-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Broncos knocked off the Patriots, 26-16 as 4 ½-point favorites in the Conference Championship

-- Seahawks held off the Saints, 23-15 as nine-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Seahawks rallied past the 49ers, 23-17 as four-point favorites in the Conference Championship

ATS Records:

Denver: 11-6-1
Seattle: 12-6

Over/Under Records:

Denver: 11-7
Seattle: 6-12

Recent Super Bowl History:

Underdogs have covered five of the past six Super Bowls, including outright victories the last two seasons by the Ravens and Giants. Since 2002, underdogs have compiled a 9-3 ATS and 6-6 SU record, while the 'over' is 3-3 the last six Super Bowls.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (15 - 3) vs. DENVER (15 - 3) - 2/2/2014, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL
Short Sheet

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 2

Seattle at Denver, 6:30 ET
Seattle: 6-17 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Denver: 18-5 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game




NFL

Super Bowl

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. DENVER
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, February 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trends - Seattle vs Denver
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

Seattle

Seahawks are 13-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games on fieldturf.
Seahawks are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. win.
Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
Seahawks are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.

Denver

Broncos are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.


OU Trends

Seattle

Under is 7-0 in Seahawks last 7 games overall.
Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf.
Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

Denver

Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 13-2-1 in Broncos last 16 games on fieldturf.
Over is 24-7 in Broncos last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 40-14-2 in Broncos last 56 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-3 in Broncos last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 41-18-1 in Broncos last 60 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 49-24-1 in Broncos last 74 games overall.


Head to Head

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl XLVIII action report: Books test bettors with 2.5, admit to inflated total


Odds for Super Bowl XLVIII have been up since Richard Sherman went bananas in Erin Andrews’ postgame interview, and the early betting action has been just as intense as the Seahawks’ shutdown corner.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the early money on the Big Game and how books are adjusting with still nearly two weeks before the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos kickoff at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos – Open: Pick, Move: -3, Move: -2.5

According to Stewart, the opening line of a pick’em lasted all but five minutes at his book. Action flooded in on the Broncos and books quickly went to -1 and -1.5. That didn’t slow down Denver backers, who quickly pushed the spread to -2.5.

Oddsmakers did their best to stay under the key number of the field goal, bouncing the juice on the Broncos before finally giving in to the market swing, and tagging the Seahawks as field-goal underdogs in the Super Bowl. Money on Seattle has started to show at that spread.

“I've been doing this for 15 years, I've never seen a surge of money come in on one side like that before,” Stewart tells Covers. “We went from pick'em and, within 35 minutes, we were dealing -3 on this game. At Seahawks +3 (-115) /Broncos -3 (-105), we started seeing money come in on the dog and again, we were able to shutdown the flood of Bronco money at that number.”

While the early bettors have voiced their opinion on the Broncos, with 75 percent of the total handle on the Broncos, Stewart and his crew aren’t sold on Denver as a field-goal favorite against the top defense in the NFL, possibly playing in some nasty winter weather on February 2.

“We made this game a pick for a reason and my crew and I believe this game is a complete toss up, so giving the Seahawks three points was just too many in our opinions,” he says.

Stewart tested that theory by dropping the spread to Denver -2.5 (-120), and only 62.5 percent of the bets made after that adjustment were on the Broncos. He says they’re comfortable at that spread because his team is high on Seattle and the fact that Broncos bettors have to lay 20 cents on the dollar to bet the favorite.

“I do believe the enthusiasm on these Broncos will dwindle as we get closer to game time,” says Stewart. “Once pundits and experts bring up Manning's sub-par performances in cold weather, I do believe we'll start to see more Seahawks money. If there's severe weather in this game, I wouldn't be surprised if the Seahawks close the favorite. But, we've got two weeks to deal with this game and this line.”

As for the total for Super Bowl XLVIII, it’s been relatively uneventful when compared to the action on the spread. Most books opened around 48 points and early action has leaned toward the Under, trimming some numbers as low as 47.5. However, Stewart says this number will likely move again – more than likely upwards – by kickoff on Feb. 2.

“This is the Super Bowl and like every other Super Bowl, we're going to need it Under because the public is going to bet this game Over as we get closer to game time,” says Stewart. “The public loves betting Over and they love betting the Super Bowl, so every book in the world is going to need this game Under and we're all dealing a bit of an inflated total at this point.”

[StarDust Bum]

Will Wilson struggle like other young Super Bowl QBs?

The Denver Broncos undoubtedly have the experience edge when it comes to Super Bowl quarterbacks, especially with young signal callers struggling on the NFL’s biggest stage.

Peyton Manning, at age 37, is making his third Super Bowl appearance in his 16th season in the NFL, while his counterpart, Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, is in just his second year in the pros.

Wilson, at age 25 years and 65 days when he takes the field in MetLife Stadium on February 2, will be the sixth youngest Super Bowl quarterback in history, bumping his rival, San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick (25 years, 91 days) to seventh youngest.

Kaepernick threw for 302 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and rushed for 62 yards and score in a losing effort against the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII last February. The 49ers fell 34-31 as 4.5-point favorites.

Here’s a look at the five QBs ahead of Wilson on the list and how they performed in their respective Super Bowl debuts as youngsters. None of the previous QBs racked up anything close to mind-blowing numbers in their first appearances.

1) Dan Marino - 23 years 127 days

Super Bowl XIX - San Francisco vs. Miami (+3.5)

Result: Dolphins lose 38-16 and fail to cover.

Marino and the Dolphins squared off against the San Francisco 49ers and Joe Montana in Super Bowl XIX. The Dolphins, who had 74 rushing attempts in the previous two weeks, ran the ball only eight times in this game. Marino finished with 29 completions out of 50 attempts for 318 yards, throwing one touchdown pass and two picks in what would be his only Super Bowl appearance.

2) Ben Roethlisberger - 23 years 340 days

Super Bowl XL - Pittsburgh vs. Seattle (+4)

Result: Steelers win 21-10 and cover.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were victorious over the Seattle Seahawks. But Roethlisberger had one of the worst passing games of his career, completing just nine of 21 passes for 123 yards and two interceptions. His atrocious passer rating of 22.6 was the lowest in Super Bowl history by a winning quarterback. Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback to win the Super Bowl, a record previously held by New England’s Tom Brady.

3) David Woodley - 24 years 97 days

Super Bowl XVII - Washington vs. Miami (-3)

Result: Dolphins lose 27-17 and fail to cover.

The Dolphins had a tough matchup against the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVII. At the time, Woodley was the youngest Super Bowl starting quarterback in NFL history when he took the field. Despite starting the game well with a 76-yard touchdown pass to Jimmy Cefalo, Woodley and the entire offense struggled after that, going 0-for-8 passing in the second half.

4) Tom Brady - 24 years 184 days

Super Bowl XXXVI - New England vs. St. Louis (-14)

Result: Patriots win 20-17 and cover.

The Patriots were listed by Las Vegas oddsmakers as 14-point underdogs against the NFC champion St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. Brady was named MVP in the Patriots victory while throwing for 145 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, becoming the then-youngest quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.

5) Drew Bledsoe - 24 years 347 days

Super Bowl XXXI - Green Bay vs. New England (+14)

Result: Patriots lose 35-21 and earn bettors a push.

Bledsoe completed 25 of 48 passes for 253 yards, with two touchdowns and four interceptions in the loss.

* The O/U is 3-2 in these five games.

[StarDust Bum]

Favorites, Over pay out when Super Bowl spreads get tight


Over the 48-year history of the Super Bowl, the NFL spectacle has seen its share of tight spreads - though few can measure up to the line for Super Bowl XLVIII, which opened pick'em and presently has the AFC Champion Denver Broncos as 2.5-point favorites over the NFC champions from Seattle.

Eleven Super Bowls have gone off with spreads of three points or fewer - and the trend in those games has seen the favorite cover in a low-scoring contest. Here is a list of the previous tight Super Bowl spreads, and how those games turned out:

Super Bowl V - Baltimore (-2.5) vs. Dallas
After four straight matchups featuring heavily favored teams, the first tight Super Bowl spread saw the Baltimore Colts do battle with the Dallas Cowboys in what amounted to a defensive struggle in Miami. The Colts pulled out a 16-13 victory for the narrow cover, while the teams fell a touchdown under the total of 36.

Super Bowl VII - Miami (-1) vs. Washington
Playing in their second consecutive Super Bowl, the Dolphins entered as one-point favorites and pulled out a 14-7 win over the Redskins. It remains the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in league history, and was the fourth of what ended up being seven straight "unders" in the NFL title game.

Super Bowl IX - Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Minnesota
The Steelers were favored by a field goal against the Vikings at New Orleans, and made good with a convincing 16-6 triumph. Despite a record-low-tying O/U of 33, the teams never came close to going over.

Super Bowl XV - Oakland vs. Philadelphia (-3)
The Eagles were modest favorites in their first-ever Super Bowl appearance, but were thoroughly outplayed on the way to a 27-10 defeat. Oakland became the first underdog to cover a low spread, while the score fell "under" by a measly half-point.

Super Bowl XVI - San Francisco (-1) vs. Cincinnati
San Francisco was the slightest of favorites against the Bengals in the narrowest spread in Super Bowl history. The game was as competitive as advertised - the 49ers prevailed 26-21 - while the game came oh-so-close to surpassing the O/U of 48.

Super Bowl XVII - Washington vs. Miami (-3)
The Dolphins were considered the slight favorite against the Redskins, but came up woefully short of expectations in a 27-17 loss. Washington easily covered the spread while the game went well over its O/U of 36.5.

Super Bowl XVIII - Los Angeles Raiders vs. Washington (-3)
Washington's return to the big game wasn't nearly as successful as its previous visit. Despite being favored by a field goal, the Redskins were thumped 38-9 in what was, at the time, the biggest blowout between teams with a spread of three points or fewer. The teams nearly hit the O/U of 48 on the number.

Super Bowl XXII - Washington vs. Denver (-3)
The Redskins were once again involved in a tight Super Bowl spread, this time as a three-point underdog to Denver. The Redskins were on the other end of a blowout this time around, trouncing the Broncos 42-10 to cover by a mile and send the game over the O/U of 47.

Super Bowl XXXV - Balitmore (-3) vs. New York Giants
The title game saw 12 straight spreads of 6 1/2 points or more before this one, with the Ravens favored by just a field goal against the Giants. Baltimore stomped New York 34-7 while outscoring the O/U of 33 by itself.

Super Bowl XLV - Green Bay (-3) vs. Pittsburgh
The Steelers found themselves a three-point underdog against the rival Packers. Green Bay prevailed 31-25 in a thriller while producing the highest scoring title game in four years, easily surpassing the O/U of 45.

Super Bowl XLVI - New York Giants vs. New England (-2.5)
In one of the most thrilling finishes in Super Bowl history, the Giants rallied from behind to stun the Patriots 21-17. That allowed the Giants to cover as 2 1/2-point underdogs, though the teams were well shy of the O/U of 53.

Overall totals: Favorite 7-4 ATS; 7-4 O/U

[StarDust Bum]

Covers Experts' Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Pick of the Day


The lead-up to the Super Bowl can be the longest two weeks of a sports bettor’s life. Thankfully, some of Covers Experts sharpest minds are willing to hold you over with a Super Bowl prop pick for each day heading into the Big Game on February 2.

January 21

Sean Murphy - Highest scoring quarter: Second quarter +160

First (+550)
Second (+160)
Third (+500)
Fourth (+200)
Tie (+900)

Courtesy of Bet365.com

I have a lot of respect for both of these defenses. I believe the respect is mutual between the two teams as well. With that being said, I'm not expecting a ton of offensive fireworks early in this game.

As is often the case in the Super Bowl, these two teams are rather unfamiliar with one another, and we can expect a bit of a feeling out process in the first quarter. By the time the second quarter rolls around, both offenses should find their rhythm, and that's when I anticipate seeing the most points being scored.

After a long halftime, there's a tendency for teams to come out sluggish in the third quarter. As for the final frame, both defenses have the potential to take over in what I anticipate being a tight game at that point. The second quarter is pegged as the “favorite” in this prop for good reason.

Check back tomorrow for the latest Super Bowl prop pick of the day.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Which way will the Super Bowl odds move?


Things might settle down as bettors who favor blue-chip teams may determine that all things being equal, throwing money down on the best quarterback in the Super Bowl only makes sense.

Or, those in the know might check the long-range New Jersey weather forecast, see that it calls for temperatures in single-digits and winds gusting up to 40 mph and decide that Peyton Manning’s record in the cold isn’t so hot, and that it’s prudent to bet on Seattle’s defense.

All we know right now about the Denver-Seattle Super Bowl is what we don’t know, and right now those that don’t know include the oddsmakers and sportsbooks.

Some Las Vegas books opened with the game as a pick ‘em, while others had made the Broncos 1.5-point favorites. At offshore sites, which can and do move the Vegas boards, there were similar hour-to-hour adjustments. By early Monday morning the offshore lines ran from Denver -3 to Denver +2.

Denver’s passing game is dependent on decent weather, and Seahawks fans can take some comfort in the extended forecast (which isn’t worth much at this point).

AccuWeather for Feb. 2 in Northern New Jersey is calling for a high of 35 and low of 19 degrees, with a mix of snow and rain. Rain at those temps often translates into ice. And in that type of weather, Manning has often played like a wildebeest with a sprained ankle.

So expect the line to move, at least in the next few days, as early money settles in on one team or another. And that will create shopping opportunities for those with access to Vegas books or those of us with multiple offshore accounts.

Numbers folks have set the total for 47.5, which is close to the average number of points scored in an NFL game – figuring that they might as well split the difference between a terrific offensive team with weapons everywhere, and perhaps the best defensive team to make it to the Super Bowl since 2006, when the James Harrison/Troy Polamalu Steelers took down the Seahawks.

The Super Bowl brings out tons of square money, and squares love the Over. But Denver games have gone Under five straight times, and Under players have cashed on the Seahawks seven consecutive games. If the wind is blowing in the swampland of Northern New Jersey on Feb. 2, the smart money will be on yet another Under.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl XLVIII action report: Books test bettors with 2.5, admit to inflated total

Odds for Super Bowl XLVIII have been up since Richard Sherman went bananas in Erin Andrews’ postgame interview, and the early betting action has been just as intense as the Seahawks’ shutdown corner.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the early money on the Big Game and how books are adjusting with still nearly two weeks before the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos kickoff at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos – Open: Pick, Move: -3, Move: -2.5

According to Stewart, the opening line of a pick’em lasted all but five minutes at his book. Action flooded in on the Broncos and books quickly went to -1 and -1.5. That didn’t slow down Denver backers, who quickly pushed the spread to -2.5.

Oddsmakers did their best to stay under the key number of the field goal, bouncing the juice on the Broncos before finally giving in to the market swing, and tagging the Seahawks as field-goal underdogs in the Super Bowl. Money on Seattle has started to show at that spread.

“I've been doing this for 15 years, I've never seen a surge of money come in on one side like that before,” Stewart tells Covers. “We went from pick'em and, within 35 minutes, we were dealing -3 on this game. At Seahawks +3 (-115) /Broncos -3 (-105), we started seeing money come in on the dog and again, we were able to shutdown the flood of Bronco money at that number.”

While the early bettors have voiced their opinion on the Broncos, with 75 percent of the total handle on the Broncos, Stewart and his crew aren’t sold on Denver as a field-goal favorite against the top defense in the NFL, possibly playing in some nasty winter weather on February 2.

“We made this game a pick for a reason and my crew and I believe this game is a complete toss up, so giving the Seahawks three points was just too many in our opinions,” he says.

Stewart tested that theory by dropping the spread to Denver -2.5 (-120), and only 62.5 percent of the bets made after that adjustment were on the Broncos. He says they’re comfortable at that spread because his team is high on Seattle and the fact that Broncos bettors have to lay 20 cents on the dollar to bet the favorite.

“I do believe the enthusiasm on these Broncos will dwindle as we get closer to game time,” says Stewart. “Once pundits and experts bring up Manning's sub-par performances in cold weather, I do believe we'll start to see more Seahawks money. If there's severe weather in this game, I wouldn't be surprised if the Seahawks close the favorite. But, we've got two weeks to deal with this game and this line.”

As for the total for Super Bowl XLVIII, it’s been relatively uneventful when compared to the action on the spread. Most books opened around 48 points and early action has leaned toward the Under, trimming some numbers as low as 47.5. However, Stewart says this number will likely move again – more than likely upwards – by kickoff on Feb. 2.

“This is the Super Bowl and like every other Super Bowl, we're going to need it Under because the public is going to bet this game Over as we get closer to game time,” says Stewart. “The public loves betting Over and they love betting the Super Bowl, so every book in the world is going to need this game Under and we're all dealing a bit of an inflated total at this point.”

[StarDust Bum]

SBXLVIII Outlook

January 22, 2014


Super Bowl XLVIII - Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3)

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 2 - 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -2.5, Total: 47.5

The top two seeds in the NFL meet up for Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, as the Seahawks seek their first-ever championship against a Broncos team that last won the title in the 1998 season.

Both teams have identical 15-3 SU records (including 6-2 on the road) heading into the final game of the season, with Seattle going 12-6 ATS and Denver going 11-6-1 ATS. But the makeup of the two clubs is entirely different, as the Seahawks own the league's best defense (14.6 PPG, 283 YPG allowed) while the Broncos have the NFL's top offense with 36.4 PPG and 455 total YPG.

The field conditions appear to favor Seattle, as the club is 10-1 SU (7-4 ATS) on turf this season and its run-oriented offense is more conducive to what is forecast to be the coldest Super Bowl in NFL history with a significant amount of wind. Although Denver has scored a lofty 41.0 PPG on 448 total YPG in its three turf games this season (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), the weather is less than ideal for its pass-happy offense.

Both quarterbacks have had excellent seasons, with Seahawks QB Russell Wilson throwing for 3,357 yards (8.2 YPA), 26 TD and 9 INT, and Broncos QB Peyton Manning is coming off the best regular season in NFL history with 5,477 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 55 TD and 10 INT.

These teams used to be in the same division, with Denver holding a 17-6 SU (12-10-1 ATS) advantage in this series since 1992. But they have met just twice over the past decade with Seattle winning 23-20 in 2006, but losing 31-14 in the most recent meeting in 2010 when Kyle Orton outplayed Matt Hasselbeck in the matchup of starting quarterbacks.

Both clubs have loads of favorable betting trends, highlighted by the Seahawks' 10-0 ATS mark in the second half of the season under head coach Pete Carroll versus teams that allow 24+ PPG, winning by an average of 32.0 PPG to 12.0 PPG in this situation.

But the Broncos have thrived with at least two weeks of rest since 1992, going 15-2 ATS and outscoring these opponents by nearly double-digits (29.4 PPG to 19.6 PPG). With the two weeks in between games, both teams will have time to get healthy.

Seattle expects to have both WRs Percy Harvin (head) and Doug Baldwin (hip) on the field, while Denver lists both RB Knowshon Moreno (ribs) and DB Tony Carter (concussion) as probable.

The Seahawks offense is built around a power running game that averages 138 YPG on 4.3 YPC this season. RB Marshawn Lynch is the engine for this elite ground game, piling up 1,506 yards on 351 carries (4.3 YPC) with 15 TD this season, which includes 249 yards on 50 carries (5.0 YPC) and three scores in the playoffs. In two career meetings with Denver when he was with Buffalo, Lynch ran for 133 yards on 30 carries (4.1 YPC) and 2 TD.

The Seattle ground game is also helped out greatly by QB Russell Wilson, who has galloped for 555 yards on 104 carries (5.3 YPC), although he has gained just 16 yards on 13 carries during his team's three-game win streak.

But the Seahawks are capable of throwing the football too, with Wilson completing 63% of his passes for 204 YPG. Wilson hasn't had the services of WR Percy Harvin for nearly the entire season, as he touched the ball just twice during the regular season, but Harvin was a big part of the offense in the team's first playoff win versus New Orleans when he caught three passes for 21 yards in the first half of that game before sustaining a head injury.

Even if Harvin isn't a big part of the team's offense, Wilson has been just fine without him in his playoff career, going 3-1 and completing 61% of his passes for 890 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 TD and just one interception. WRs Golden Tate (942 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Doug Baldwin (914 rec. yards, 5 TD) are his most frequently used receivers, while TE Zach Miller (423 rec. yards, 5 TD) also plays an important role in the passing offense.

The Seahawks have not been great on third downs this season at 37%, and this rate has dropped to 28% over the past five games. But the club has done an excellent job of protecting the football recently, turning the ball over just five times in the past nine games combined.

The Under has occurred seven straight times in Seattle games thanks to a defense that has allowed just 12.0 PPG and 267 total YPG during this seven-game stretch. For the season, the Seahawks have been stingy in stuffing the run (105 YPG on 4.0 YPC) and have been even more proficient in stopping the pass (178 YPG on 5.4 YPA and 58.7% completions). Putting pressure on Peyton Manning will be a key to the team's chances of winning this matchup. Although Seattle has 47 sacks this season, the club has recorded two sacks or less in eight of its past nine games. But the Seahawks have also done an excellent job of forcing mistakes with an impressive 43 takeaways on the season, including 15 over the past five games.

Denver's offense has put up points in bunches all season, scoring at least 20 points in every game, and tallying at least 30 points 13 times, including six games of 40+ points. Although the offense has slowed down greatly since the start of November (31.3 PPG) compared to the first two months of the season (42.9 PPG), turnovers are also down considerably from 17 giveaways in the first eight games, compared to just 11 over the past 10 contests.

The Broncos have also run the ball better in their past eight games, averaging 133 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.6 YPC. Running the football, especially in cold and windy conditions, will a big key to their success of sustaining drives, something they have been masterful at all season with a third-down conversion rate of 48%, which includes an eye-popping 62% rate (16-of-26) in the playoffs.

RB Knowshon Moreno is the main ball carrier, producing 1,179 yards on 278 carries (4.2 YPC) with 11 touchdowns on the ground and zero lost fumbles. Backup RB Montee Ball has 654 yards on 142 carries (4.6 YPC) and 4 TD, and hasn't fumbled since Week 3. Although Moreno was held to just 51 yards on 24 carries (2.1 YPG) in the 2010 meeting with Seattle, he also gained 67 yards through the air and scored a touchdown that day.

But this offense will not completely abandon the passing game, no matter what the elements are. QB Peyton Manning is 11-9 in his playoff career where he's thrown for 5,888 yards (294 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 35 TD and 22 INT, but his cold-weather numbers aren't to the level of his lofty standards. In 18 career starts in outdoor games with a temperature below 40 degrees, Manning is just 8-10 with 4,415 passing yards (245 YPG, 7.2 YPA), 30 TD and 22 INT. In four playoff games in this cold-weather scenario, his numbers are downright horrible: 0-4, 56% completions, 226 passing YPG, 5.5 YPA, 4 TD and 9 INT.

But he's never had a receiving corps nearly as good as his current foursome of WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker, and with TE Julius Thomas.

Demaryius Thomas has racked up 1,618 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season, with six 100-yard efforts in his past 10 games, including 134 in the AFC Championship win over New England. He also caught eight passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in that 2010 victory over the Seahawks.

Decker has gained 1,393 yards through the air with 11 scores this season, but his yardage totals have been less consistent with four 100-yard efforts, but also eight games of 55 yards or less.

The play of Wes Welker (854 rec. yards, 11 TD in 15 games) will be key in this matchup, as he is the possession receiver tasked with running shorter routes over the middle of the field. But Welker has been held below 40 yards in four of his past five games, and has already suffered two known concussions this season.

Julius Thomas has 949 receiving yards and 12 TD this season, and has been excellent in these playoffs with 14 catches for 161 yards.

Defensively, the Broncos have allowed a pedestrian 24.0 PPG on 349 YPG this season, but these numbers have improved greatly during their current four-game win streak to 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG. However, the defense has been terrible on turf fields this season, allowing a hefty 35.0 PPG on 446 YPG in these three contests.

The good news is that Denver is much more efficient in stopping the run this season (97 YPG on 3.9 YPC) than the pass (251 YPG on 6.7 YPA), and running the football is exactly what Seattle's offense will try to do. The Broncos don't have that dynamic pass rusher with LB Von Miller on injured reserve, failing to record more than four sacks in any of their 18 games this season.

But they have tallied at least two sacks in 16 games, including each of the past six contests where they have totaled 15 sacks. Turnovers are a key to any game, as there are only four teams in the history of the NFL that have lost the turnover battle in a Super Bowl and still won the big game. In their past 10 games, the Broncos have forced only 10 turnovers, including zero in the two playoff contests.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl Breakdown

January 21, 2014


We are finally left with just two teams, the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks, left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy. Today at VegasInsider.com, we're breaking down the biggest game of the season with some great trends to remember for the Super Bowl.

#1 Denver Broncos vs. #1 Seattle Seahawks
Line: Denver -2.5 (48)

We have already seen this line move up 2.5-points, as it opened at a pick 'em and immediately moved to Denver by 2.5. These two teams haven't played against each other in nearly four full years, though you can bet with the game on the schedule next season between these two, it will be one of the most highly anticipated games of the regular season.

The Broncos might feel like the superior team, but they clearly had the inferior road to get into the Super Bowl. They probably didn't beat a single truly good team along the way, as they might have been the only good club in the entire AFC this year. Clearly, the New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers didn't provide all that much of a challenge in the second season, though this seems to be a much greater test.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, came out of the better of the two conferences and the best division within that conference for good measure. They beat the San Francisco 49ers in a gritty NFC Championship Game to get here and took down the New Orleans Saints in a game that was always under control but never quite settled until the final gun.

QB Peyton Manning is going to have all eyes on him in this one, knowing that he is one of the biggest names the sport has to offer. He threw for 400 yards in the conference title game, the most in a Super Bowl semifinal by a quarterback in league history. Manning though, is only 1-1 SU and ATS in his two trips to the Super Bowl in the past, beating the Chicago Bears and losing to the New Orleans Saints.

The question we have is whether or not these Seahawks, who have virtually no Super Bowl experience, can live up to the biggest game of the year. They certainly don't have a lack of confidence, but they do have a lack of trends on their side in this one.

Sure, Seattle is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with winning records, but Denver has covered eight of its last 11 games overall. The Seahawks have covered the closing number in six of their L/10 playoff tussles, while the Broncos have been a money burner in the second season having beaten the oddsmakers just three of the L/10 times.

Keep an eye on the 'under' in this one. Not only have all four of these playoff games between these two teams failed to reach the 'total', but Seattle has played seven straight games 'under' the number. The Broncos have gone 'over' in 13 of their last 16 games played on field turf, but they have played five of their last seven to the 'under'.

The 'over' though, is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this series, though that dates all the way back to when these two teams shared the AFC West with one another.

[StarDust Bum]

Eli: Peyton doesn't have to secure legacy

January 23, 2014



EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) - They are two of the NFL's most well-known quarterbacks.

They telephone each other at least once a week to talk shop, work together on an offseason passing camp, and have appeared in a number of television commercials. Each had a chance to host ''Saturday Night Live.''

Each is a Super Bowl MVP.

There is something else about Peyton and Eli Manning. First and foremost, they're brothers.

They know each other inside out. They root for each other. They bleed for each other. They're family.

So when little brother Eli says Peyton doesn't need to beat the Seattle Seahawks and win a second Super Bowl to secure his legacy as one of the NFL's greatest quarterbacks, believe him.

''I think Peyton's already created his own legacy,'' Eli said Thursday during a conference call 10 days before Peyton and Broncos meet the Seahawks in the Super Bowl at MetLife Stadium. ''He's played at a very high level for a long period of time and he's overcome injuries and obviously set numerous records and been on a lot of playoff teams, playing in his third Super Bowl. I don't think that's something that he's worried about.

''There will always be arguments about who is the greatest? Or who is the best,'' Eli said. ''I think if you're in that argument, if you're one of the names thrown around in there, I think you've already created a pretty good legacy.''

Peyton's resume is impressive: four-time MVP, 13-time Pro Bowler, seven-time All Pro.

Sure, there is only one title. Two would be the icing, and put him on par with Eli.

For the past few days, Eli Manning said his big job has been to get his brother extra tickets for the first outdoor Super Bowl in a cold-weather city. Barring late add-ons, he's already hit the request number.

''Obviously, I know what it's like with the Super Bowl and a lot of people are trying to figure out if they're coming to the games, so I'm trying to take some of that stress off of him and help manage some of those things,'' Eli said. ''That way, he can focus on work and getting the game plan.''

While the two have exchanged some text messages, the brothers have not seen each other since Denver's win over New England in the AFC title game on Sunday. They hope to get together early next week in the New York for a few hours, when Eli will give Peyton the secrets about playing in MetLife Stadium and his insight into playing Seattle, which the Giants did on here on Dec. 15.

The way the Seahawks' defense dominated New York that day in a 23-0 win, Peyton might well ignore the advice.

After that, Peyton will take center stage during the weeklong media frenzy and Eli will get ready to watch only his second game at the Meadowlands. The first was in 2003 when the Jets crushed Peyton and the Colts in an AFC playoff game at Giants Stadium. Eli was still at Ole Miss.

There is some coincidence about this game. When Eli won his second Super Bowl in 2012, it was in Peyton's stadium in Indianapolis.

''I'm rooting for him,'' Eli said. ''It's not like watching any other football game. If I'm watching two other teams, I'm kind of casually watching and don't really care who wins or loses. Here, it's a little bit more nerve-racking. I don't get nervous playing football games, I get nervous watching my brother play, and I guess because I've been doing this for a long time and you kind of know key moments and key plays.''

Eli does not think the cold will be a factor in the game. The bigger issue for his brother would be snow and wind. That might affect the Broncos more because they are a passing offense. The Seahawks are more run-oriented.

Coming into the season, Eli hoped the Giants might become the first time to play the Super Bowl in their own stadium. A 0-6 start derailed that and led to a 7-9 season that left New York out of the playoffs for the fourth time in five years.

If he's not going, Manning is happy his brother made it. There is a little jealousy, too.

''It kind of makes you want to get back to that situation and kind of get back to working and getting your mind set on doing whatever I have to do to get the Giants back to the championship games and get back to Super Bowls,'' Eli said.

Sunday, he'll watch, and root for Peyton, just like his big brother did for him in 2008 and `12, when the Giants won it all.

That's the family way.