The Bum's NFL Playoff POD'S, STAT'S NEWS PLAYOFF GOY !!

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NFL
Dunkel

Division round

Indianapolis at New England
The Colts head to New England after a 45-44 win over Kansas City in the Wild Card round and carrying a 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Indianapolis is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 11

Game 111-112: New Orleans at Seattle (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.432; Seattle 146.570
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12; 50
Vegas Line: Seattle by 8; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-8); Over

Game 113-114: Indianapolis at New England (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 137.116; New England 137.129
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2); Under


SUNDAY, JANUARY 12

Game 115-116: San Francisco at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 139.663; Carolina 140.790
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+2); Over

Game 117-118: San Diego at Denver (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 142.848; Denver 140.518
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 10; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+10); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 11

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NEW ORLEANS (12 - 5) at SEATTLE (13 - 3) - 1/11/2014, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/11/2014, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 159-120 ATS (+27.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 97-71 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 12

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SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 4) at CAROLINA (12 - 4) - 1/12/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (10 - 7) at DENVER (13 - 3) - 1/12/2014, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 11

New Orleans at Seattle, 4:35 ET
New Orleans: 0-6 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Seattle: 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Indianapolis at New England, 8:15 ET
Indianapolis: 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
New England: 0-7 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite


Sunday, January 12

San Francisco at Carolina, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Carolina: 10-0 UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival

San Diego at Denver, 4:40 ET
San Diego: 19-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
Denver: 16-30 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games




NFL

Division Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 11

4:35 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Seattle is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home

8:15 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing New England
New England is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


Sunday, January 12

1:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CAROLINA
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games
Carolina is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

4:40 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
San Diego is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-6-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Diego
Denver is 6-10-4 ATS in its last 20 games when playing San Diego

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NFL

Saturday, January 11

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Saints at Seahawks: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46)

The New Orleans Saints are coming off their first postseason road win in franchise history, but the degree of difficulty will rise dramatically when they visit the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks on Saturday. It will be a rematch of a Dec. 2 game in Seattle, when the Seahawks manhandled New Orleans 34-7 and held the Saints to their lowest point total since October 2008. "This is definitely going to be a personal game," New Orleans cornerback Keenan Lewis said. "They embarrassed us last time."

The Seahawks have embarrassed a number of opponents, particularly on their home field, where they are 15-1 over the past two seasons. Among the reasons for Seattle's dominance at CenturyLink Field is its rabid fan base known as the 12th Man, which set a Guiness Book World Record for crowd noise with a reading of 137.6 decibels in the thrashing of the Saints last month. The Seahawks are hoping to see the return of explosive wide receiver Percy Harvin, who has played in only one game since returning from offseason hip surgery.

TV: 4:35 p.m., Fox.

LINE: Seattle opened -8.5 and is now -8. The total is down two points from the opening 48.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 98 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 21 mph.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (12-5): New Orleans' high-powered offense struggles away from home, managing only 36 points in three December road losses before pulling out a last-second 26-24 win at Philadelphia last week. Drew Brees, the only QB with three 5,000-yard seasons, threw for 250 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against the Eagles but now must contend with a defense that limited him to 147 yards and held the Saints to 188 total yards - the lowest total since Brees and head coach Sean Payton arrived in New Orleans in 2006. New Orleans overcame an injury to running back Pierre Thomas to churn out 185 rushing yards against Philadelphia - including 97 by former first-round pick Mark Ingram - while its defense held the NFL's leading rusher, LeSean McCoy, to 77 yards on 21 carries.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (13-3): Seattle leveled off after steamrolling the Saints, losing at San Francisco and falling to Arizona for its first home defeat in two seasons before closing the campaign with a dominant defensive performance against St. Louis. Wilson was being mentioned for league MVP honors at one point in the season but he stumbled down the stretch, averaging 171.3 yards passing and throwing for four touchdowns and three interceptions in the four games following the beatdown of New Orleans. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 1,257 yards and 12 touchdowns but he cracked 100 yards only once in the last eight games. The Seahawks led the league in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) allowed per game while registering an NFL-high 28 interceptions - eight by cornerback Richard Sherman.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Seahawks are 12-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Saints last four Divisional Playoffs games.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last five vs. NFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees owns the highest completion percentage (67.0) in postseason history and is the only QB with three 400-yard games in the playoffs.

2. Wilson has 24 overall wins and 15 at home in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

3. Saints TE Jimmy Graham had 16 TDs during the regular season but was limited to three catches for 42 yards and a score by Seattle.


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NFL

Saturday, January 11

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Colts at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7.5, 51.5)

Andrew Luck's first visit to New England resulted in the worst defeat of his two-year career - a 59-24 beating at the hands of the Patriots in his rookie season. Luck appeared on the way to absorbing a defeat of similar magnitude a week ago, but he rallied the Indianapolis Colts from a 28-point second-half deficit to a stunning 45-44 victory over Kansas City in the opening round of the playoffs. The improbable win earned Luck a second crack at Tom Brady and host New England on Saturday night.

Luck has amassed 11 wins in the fourth quarter and overtime in his first two seasons - the most in the NFL during that span - but now the Colts have to find a way to take down the winningest quarterback in postseason history. Brady is 17-7 in the playoffs, which includes five trips to the Super Bowl and three championships, and guided New England to an 8-0 home record this season. Brady is working with a patchwork receiving corps that is missing tight end Rob Gronkowski, who caught two touchdown passes against the Colts last season.

TV: 8:15 p.m., CBS.

LINE: The Patriots opened -7.5. The total is down to 51.5 from the opening 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with an 86 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 13 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (12-5): While Luck stole the headlines by leading five second-half touchdown drives and throwing for four TDs and a career-best 443 yards, second-year receiver T.Y. Hilton also had a coming-out party by hauling in 13 catches for 224 yards and a pair of scores in the second-biggest playoff comeback in league history. The onus will again be on the Luck-to-Hilton combination due to the absence of a consistent running game by Indianapolis, which has relied more on Donald Brown that early-season acquisition Trent Richardson, who fumbled on his lone carry last week. Another concern for the Colts is a defense that allowed a total of 20 points in winning the last three regular-season games but was shredded by a Kansas City offense that was without its top weapon in Jamaal Charles for the majority of the contest.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (12-4): Multiple injuries to Gronkowski and the departure of Wes Welker to free agency has left New England scrambling to cobble together an effective passing attack and it's reflected in the numbers - Brady's 25 touchdown passes and 87.3 passer rating are his lowest since the 2006 season. Converted college quarterback Julian Edelman helped fill the void with 105 receptions - nearly tripling his previous career high - and 1,056 yards, but the Patriots have shown an increasing reliance on sledgehammer running back LeGarrette Blount, who rambled for 265 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games. The defense, which lost Pro Bowl tackle Vince Wilfork and middle linebacker Jerod Mayo to season-ending injuries, suffered another blow when third-leading tackler Brandon Spikes was placed on injured reserve.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in January.
* Patriots are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
* Under is 13-6-1 in Patriots last 20 playoff home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady, who is 11-3 at home in the postseason, needs three TD passes to surpass Brett Favre (44) for the second-highest total in playoff history.

2. Colts OLB Robert Mathis led the league with 19.5 sacks during the regular season and had a pivotal strip-sack in last week's victory.

3. The Patriots joined San Francisco as the only teams to win at least 10 games in 11 consecutive seasons.

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46.5)

Saints’ commitment to run vs. Seahawks’ rushing defense

The Saints got the road-woe monkey off their backs with a win at Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round, thanks in part to their commitment to the running game. New Orleans, despite missing RB Pierre Thomas, handed the ball off 36 times to Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson and Darren Sproles, marching for 185 yards on the ground. That cut down on turnovers and chewed up 34:53 worth of clock, keeping the Eagles’ explosive offense off the field.

The Seahawks' stingy defense is a much tougher test than Philadelphia’s porous stop unit. But, if Seattle does have one weakness, it’s against the run. The Seahawks were pushed around by opposing rushing attacks in their three losses this season. They allowed the Colts to put up 109 rushing yards and a score, watched San Francisco rumble for 163 yards, and gave up 139 yards rushing in the loss to Arizona. The Saints fell behind quickly in their Week 13 loss to Seattle and ran the ball just 17 times, so it won’t be hard to improve on those numbers.


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7.5, 51.5)

Colts’ comebacks vs. Patriots’ fourth quarter defense

The Colts are becoming as predictable as a Rocky movie. Scene 1: Indianapolis gets its head beat in for two quarters. Scene 2: Bell rings for halftime, head coach Chuck Pagano does his best Mickey impersonation before a pump-up montage to awesome 80’s cock rock. Scene 3: Colts come out swinging and rip victory from the clutches of defeat. Cue credits and Survivor. Indianapolis did just that versus Kansas City Saturday, scoring 35 points in the second half. That’s kind of been the calling card of the Andrew Luck era in Indy.

The Patriots enjoyed a bye week and hopefully figured out a way to get through the fourth quarter without needing a pile of points. New England’s offense has masked a serious issue, with the defense unable to close out games by itself. The Pats have given up 31 total points in the final frame over their last three outings – offsetting that by answering with 49 points of their own. However, those fourth-quarter lapses could come back to bite New England hard if the Colts get on the comeback trail.


San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 41)

Niners’ momentum vs. Panthers’ bye week blues

As past playoff pushes have shown us, it’s the hot team – not the higher seed – that has the edge. And no team in football is hotter than the 49ers. Not even the icy temps at Lambeau Field could slow down San Francisco, which has won seven in a row (4-3 ATS). The 49ers are coming off a massive victory over Green Bay on a last-second field goal and are out to avenge a loss to Carolina earlier this season.

The Panthers built up a lot of momentum in the final weeks of the season, winning three straight and 11 of their final 12 games to grab the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. But many are asking if Carolina has peaked and whether taking a week off will cool the Panthers’ play. Carolina is no fan of the bye week – playoff or regular season. The Panthers are 0-3 SU and ATS coming off the bye week under coach Ron Rivera and were knocked out of the playoffs in 2008 after a 12-4 season earned them a first-round break, losing 33-13 as 9.5-point favorites to Arizona in the Divisional Round.


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 54)

Chargers’ third-down success vs. Broncos’ third-down defense

The Bolts have already laid the blueprint for beating the Broncos, knocking off Denver 27-20 as 10-point road underdogs in Week 15. San Diego controlled the tempo and dominated time of possession in that game, burning up 38:49 to Denver’s 21:11. A big part of that win – and the Chargers’ overall success – is the team’s ability to keep the chains moving on third down. San Diego ranks tops in the NFL in third-down conversion rate, picking up the first 48.17 percent of the time, and went 6 for 12 on third downs in the win over Denver.

The Broncos defense has been the elephant in the room all season. Denver’s stop unit has been burned for big numbers and is missing one of its key cogs in LB Von Miller, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Broncos were in the middle of the road in terms of third-down defense, limiting opponents to a 38.07 conversion percentage (16th), but can’t afford to keep the Bolts on the field Sunday. San Diego did a great job holding on to the ball and removing Peyton Manning and the Denver offense from the equation in Week 15.

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Where the action is: Saturday's Divisional line moves

The NFL Playoffs continue this weekend with the Divisional Round. In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks entertain the New Orleans Saints, while in the AFC, the New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts.

We talk to oddsmakers about all of the betting action coming in on both of these postseason showdowns.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -8, Move: -7.5

Most wagering outlets opened this with the home team either -8 or -8.5 with not a whole lot of line movement since post. The Saints earned their first postseason road victory in franchise history in Philadelphia last week and will look to build on that in Seattle. CenturyLink Field is a different beast, however, and the Seahawks posted a SU record of 7-1 (5-3 ATS) in the regular season.

"The Seahawks line hasn't moved one bit since early Monday morning when we went from -8 to -7.5, and I honestly don't see this line moving much if at all before game time," says Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag. "Action is coming in exactly as we expected, with a bit more Saints money coming in and we're OK with that money."

The Total has been a different story for this NFC matchup. Most shops opened the number at 48 and with some unsavory weather conditions in Seattle's forecast, bettors - sharp and public alike - have backed the Under all week.

"Tuesday we got wiseguy play on Under 48, so moved to 47.5, and another sharp played it Under 47.5, so we have gone all the way to 45.5," said Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag. "This appears to be a weather play, as there is supposed to be rain all day accompanied by 25-30 mph winds. Fifty-nine percent of cash is on the Under."


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots - Open: -7

Here we have a similar situation as above. There hasn't been a flurry of movement as most books opened the Pats as TD-faves over the visiting Colts.

"Regarding the line, we've been dealing Pats -7 all week but just this morning we went to Colts +7 (-115)/Pats -7 (-105) because we're starting to see a lot more money come in on the underdog Colts," Stewart tells Covers.

As far as the total is concerned, bettors have again backed the Under with some weather conditions to consider.

"Got sharp play under 53, so moved to 52," Perry says. "Another game with somewhat nasty weather expected. It's supposed to rain all day and winds will be 20 mph."

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NFL Divisional betting preview: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of 11 a.m. ET, Jan. 9.

Saturday, Jan. 11.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 47)

Even after the Saints earned a big road win at Philadelphia last week, they aren’t getting much love against the Seahawks. Drew Brees struggled to get much going against Philadelphia’s pass defense and finished with 250 passing yards to go along with one touchdown and two interceptions. Now the Saints face a Seahawks club that is 7-1 at home and owns the top total defense, scoring defense and passing defense in the NFL. So, it’s no surprise that the total has dropped from 48.5 at the open to 47 now.

Where the action is: The Saints are seeing 64 percent of Sports Interaction's bets as 8-point road underdogs.


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7, 52.5)

It may not be pretty, but the Indianapolis Colts continue to find ways to win. Last week it was Andrew Luck’s fumble recovery that pushed them past the Kansas City Chiefs. This week they may need some more luck against the Pats. Although the Colts have proven they can keep pace on the scoreboard, last week’s defensive performance against the Chiefs is a big concern. The Colts allowed Alex Smith to throw for almost 400 yards with four touchdowns with star running back Jamaal Charles on the sideline. You have to think Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are licking their chops.

Where the action is: The Pats opened as 7.5-point favorites but that line has dropped to -7 with solid support for the Colts coming in. About 70 percent of our bets are currently backing Indy at +7.


Sunday, Jan. 12

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+1, 42)

Now we’ll get to see what the Panthers are made of. They come into this game as the hottest team in the league with just one loss on their record after starting the season 1-3. They also dropped the 49ers 10-9 in San Francisco back in Week 10, sacking quarterback Colin Kaepernick six times in the process. Still, the 49ers are coming on strong as well and earned a lot of toughness points last week by beating the Packers in frigid Lambeau Field. With a couple of big-play quarterbacks squaring off, this one might come down to who breaks the biggest play when his team needs it most.

Where the action is: This line is bouncing around all over the place. The Panthers opened as 2-point home dogs but the game then moved to a pick ‘em. Now Carolina sits as a 1-point underdog and the total has dropped from 43 at the open to 42. About 61 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are siding with San Francisco.


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 54)

A lot of bettors made a pile of money this year betting the Broncos and the over, but now that we’re in the playoffs, betting habits have changed. San Diego has already beaten Denver once this season and has won five straight, covering the number in four of those contests. That alone seems to be enough to sway a good portion of our betting public, even with Peyton Manning on the other side. The Broncos remain +237 Super Bowl favorites.

Where the action is: This number opened at Denver -10 and then dipped to -9.5 not long after. The total has dropped from 55 to 54. As of noon Thursday, 65 percent of our bets are coming in on the underdog Chargers at +9.5.

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Playoff goy goes this weekend...........

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Preview: Saints (11-5) at Seahawks (13-3)

Date: January 11, 2014 4:35 PM EDT


The New Orleans Saints shook off the notion that they can't win on the road in their playoff opener, though pulling off a victory at raucous CenturyLink Field in Saturday's NFC divisional matchup with the Seattle Seahawks will be a more daunting task.

The Seahawks will try to win a sixth straight home playoff contest and secure their 16th victory in 17 games on their own field when they take on a New Orleans team looking to avenge last month's blowout loss in Seattle.

Though all the attention leading up to their wild-card contest centered around their inability to win away from home, the Saints (12-5) snapped a three-game road losing streak with a 26-24 victory over Philadelphia last Saturday.

Shayne Graham hit a 32-yard field goal as time expired to give New Orleans its first postseason road win in six tries, as well as a shot at redemption in Seattle.

The NFC-best Seahawks (13-3), which led the NFL in total defense (273.6 yards per game), held Drew Brees to 147 yards - his fewest since 2006 - in a 34-7 home win Dec. 2. The Saints matched their lowest scoring output since coach Sean Payton took over in 2006, and their 188 total yards were the fewest under him.

After the one-sided loss, Brees said that if the Saints wanted to reach the Super Bowl, they'd probably have to win in Seattle in the playoffs.

'If we want to accomplish what we set out to accomplish this year then we better find a way to go there and win, and just hoping that we'd have another opportunity," he said. "And here we are, having that opportunity."

The Seahawks have won five straight home playoff games dating to a 27-20 loss to St. Louis on Jan. 8, 2005. They also had a 14-game run at CenturyLink Field before falling 17-10 to Arizona in Week 16. Seattle bounced back with a 27-9 victory over the Rams in the season finale.

With the winner advancing to the NFC championship against Carolina or San Francisco, Payton is certainly doing everything he can to get the Saints ready for the rematch. He's even had Seahawks logos painted on their outdoor and indoor practice fields this week.

'I feel like coach Payton is putting us in the moment, you know, visualize this is where we're going, this is what we're going to do and this is how it's going to look,' linebacker Curtis Lofton said.

Brees threw for 404 yards and two scores but 11-5 New Orleans was upset 41-36 by 7-9 Seattle in a wild-card round matchup Jan. 8, 2011.

The eight-time Pro Bowler has an 84.0 passer rating on the road this season compared to 126.3 at home. He'll try to take advantage of his second chance against the Seahawks, who finished the regular season with the league's best pass defense at 172.0 yards per game.

Seattle had 28 interceptions and an opponent passer rating of 63.4, one of just 15 teams since 2000 to hold opposing passers to 65.0 or less.

Cornerback Richard Sherman led the NFL with eight interceptions, including four over the final three games. Earl Thomas also was a first-team All-Pro pick, while fellow safety Kam Chancellor was a second-team choice.

MVP candidate Russell Wilson put together one of his best efforts of the season in the first meeting, completing 22 of 30 passes for 310 yards with three touchdowns while adding 47 rushing yards.

Although he struggled in the loss to the Cardinals, Wilson threw for seven touchdowns with only one interception over his last four home games.

'I think it's common knowledge and human nature that you would like to think it's going to be the same, but we know better than that,' coach Pete Carroll said. 'We need to respect this opportunity for what it is. It's a great championship matchup for us, and they're going to come loaded up and give us a great football game.'

Marshawn Lynch figures to play a prominent role despite being held to 45 yards on 16 carries in last month's win. The workhorse back hasn't posted a 100-yard game since Nov. 10 at Atlanta, but he had 131 yards - including a memorable 67-yard touchdown run - in the last playoff meeting.

The Saints are coming off a solid effort against the run, holding NFL rushing leader LeSean McCoy to 77 yards on 21 carries.

New Orleans' defense could face a tougher test Saturday with the Seahawks getting back wide receiver Percy Harvin, who played in one game this season after undergoing surgery to repair the labrum in his hip in early August.

Tight end Luke Willson has also returned to practice after being taken off the field in the season finale with a high-ankle sprain.

The Saints, who ran for 185 yards last weekend, are hoping to get Pierre Thomas back from a chest injury. If he can't go, Mark Ingram will likely get another start after gaining 97 yards and scoring against the Eagles.

The Seahawks tied for seventh with 101.6 rushing yards allowed per game, giving up 25 or less in two of their last three.

Seattle has won four of five home meetings, including the postseason victory three years ago.

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Preview: Colts (11-5) at Patriots (12-4)

Date: January 11, 2014 8:15 PM EDT


In just two seasons, Andrew Luck has shown an uncanny knack for winning close games with the Indianapolis Colts.

His lone appearance against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots was anything but close.

The Colts suffered their worst loss with Luck last season at New England, but the stakes will be higher in Saturday night's AFC divisional playoff matchup at Gillette Stadium.

Indianapolis (12-5) turned in the most stunning performance of the postseason to this point by rallying from a 28-point deficit in the second half last Saturday for a 45-44 home win over Kansas City. Luck was the catalyst, throwing for four touchdowns and 443 yards - many of which came after the Colts' fate seemed doomed thanks to his three interceptions.

"It was a tremendous performance coming back in the second half," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "They did a really good job in all three areas of the game. This is a team that's well coached, that's had a real good season. They beat some of the best teams in the league, in both the AFC and the NFC. They've just been impressive."

Luck's Colts are now 14-2 in games decided by seven or fewer points.

These teams met in 10 straight regular seasons before that streak ended in 2013, and New England (12-4) cruised to a 59-24 win Nov. 18, 2012, in the last matchup. Brady went 24 of 35 for 331 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, while Luck was 27 of 50 for 334 yards, two scores and three INTs.

"I don't want to dwell too much on last year," Luck said. "They do a great job of forcing turnovers, getting to the quarterback. We know it's going to be a dogfight."

One notable effort from last year was T.Y Hilton's six catches for 100 yards and two scores. The Patriots will no doubt have their full attention on the second-year receiver after he caught 13 passes for 224 yards and two scores against the Chiefs last week.

"He's productive at all three levels of the defense," Belichick said. "He's a vertical receiver, he's a good intermediate receiver and he's a good catch-and-run short receiver that can turn short plays into big plays."

The Patriots will counter with one of the best cornerback tandems in the league in rookie Logan Ryan and Aqib Talib, who combined for nine interceptions for the AFC East champions.

One concern for New England is an injury-plagued group of linebackers down to six - three who have seen little action. That trio doesn't include backup Dane Fletcher, who will start in place of Brandon Spikes.

'Everybody has to step up,' Fletcher said. 'Everybody's role kind of increases on defense, especially in the linebacker unit.'

It hasn't been a vintage season for Brady, whose 87.3 passer rating is his lowest in a full season since 2003. He has been sacked 40 times, the most since his first full year in 2001.

The number of times he has been dropped no doubt adds to his awareness of Robert Mathis, who led the NFL with 19 1/2 sacks in the regular season and added one last weekend.

"He's a great player and been a great player for a long time," said Brady about Mathis. "We've played these guys a bunch over the years. We kind of know what we're up against. He's having one of the best years of his career."

The Patriots' offense hasn't been the same with Rob Gronkowski out for the season with a knee injury after he only saw action in seven games. That came after the embattled Aaron Hernandez was let go and Wes Welker departed to Denver.

What Brady did have at his disposal was a running game in which Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount combined for 1,545 yards and 14 scores. Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen have also been a factor running the football.

"It's a heck of a challenge," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "What LeGarrette is doing and Ridley and certainly with Shane coming in, and Bolden is no slouch. I mean, they've got a stable of guys that are all more than capable."

Brady's preferred target in 2013 was Julian Edelman, who posted career highs of 105 catches and 1,056 yards receiving.

One of Brady's former receivers, Deion Branch, was signed Monday by Indianapolis. Branch, a former Super Bowl MVP with New England, started four of 10 games for the Patriots last year.

'Having had some time spent there, we figured that the questions were going to come up 'If you're signing this guy who spent time in New England, is it just a coincidence or do you need the guy to help you win a football game?'" Pagano said. "We think we got a heck of a football player.'

Branch was signed since Darrius Heyward-Bey injured a hamstring last weekend.

The Colts also have numerous injuries on defense. Starting cornerback Greg Toler (groin) and defensive end Fili Moala (knee) were placed on injured reserve this week while safety LaRon Landry is dealing with a concussion.

Landry was a full participant at Wednesday's practice and coaches are hopeful he will play.

The home team has captured all three postseason meetings, with New England winning twice.

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NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

The NFL playoffs are in the second round as teams move closer towards making the Superbowl. Here are some notable injuries that may have an impact on the scoreboard.

Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints (Chest, Questionable)

The Saints beat the Eagles last week on the road without Thomas by dominating the time of possession 34:53 to the Eagles 25:07. The high scoring Saints put up 249 passing yards and 185 rushing. New Orleans faced a defense ranked 29th in total yards allowed and dead-last in average passing yards allowed a game. In the second round, New Orleans travels to Seattle and face a defense ranked first in scoring points, yards allowed and against the pass. The Seahawks rank seventh against the rush. The presence of Thomas will be missed against the only area that hasn’t been completely perfect for the Seahawks.

The Saints are 8-point road underdogs against the Seahawks. The total is 46.


Aaron Dobson, WR, New England Patriots (Foot, Questionable)

The New England Patriots are coming off an extra week of rest after securing the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a 12-4-0 record. The Patriots ended their regular season campaign with a +9 turnover ratio and the third most points scored averaging 27.8 a game. The Patriots are ranked no worse than 10th offensively and have put up a great season despite players battling serious injuries. This week is no different for the Patriots with both rookie wide receivers listed as questionable (Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins). Both rookies are tied for second on the team in touchdowns (4) and are ranked fifth and sixth respectively in receptions and have accumulated over 450 yards each.

The Patriots are 7-point home favorites against Indianapolis. The total is 51.5.


Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers (Knee, Questionable)

The Panthers have been fantastic defensively all season and the team’s +11 turnover ratio is a huge reason why they locked up a first round bye. Despite his age, Smith has proven once again that he’s capable of being a high-impact wide receiver. Over 15 regular season games Smith had 64 receptions for 745 yards and four touchdowns, ranking him second on the team in receptions, total yards, and touchdowns. Carolina will be missing their star player and motivator Saturday hosting a 49ers team coming off a high defeating Green Bay on the road.

The Panthers are 1-point home favorite over San Francisco. The total is 42.


Eric Weddle, S, San Diego Chargers (Hamstring, Questionable)

The Chargers travel to Denver facing a Broncos team ranked first in points scored, passing yards and total yards. Safety Eric Weddle leads the Chargers in combined tackles with 115 and interceptions with two. The Chargers weakness of pressuring the quarterback and getting sacks may come back to haunt them against a Broncos team who has 75 percent of their offensive touchdowns coming through the air (55/73). Even though the Chargers and Broncos split their regular season series win total, oddsmakers don’t feel the post-season match up will be close.

The Chargers are 9-point road underdogs against the Broncos. The total is 54.5.

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Trends - New Orleans at Seattle

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

New Orleans

Saints are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games on fieldturf.
Saints are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games in January.
Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Seattle

Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Seahawks are 12-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.
Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Seahawks are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games on fieldturf.
Seahawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. NFC.
Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
Seahawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
Seahawks are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 home games.
Seahawks are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games overall.


OU Trends

New Orleans

Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 road games.
Over is 3-0-1 in Saints last 4 Divisional Playoffs games.
Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1 in Saints last 8 games overall.
Under is 7-1 in Saints last 8 vs. NFC.
Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 Saturday games.
Over is 8-2-1 in Saints last 11 playoff games.
Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games in January.
Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games on fieldturf.
Over is 10-4 in Saints last 14 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 42-20-1 in Saints last 63 games following a ATS win.

Seattle

Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 Divisional Playoffs games.
Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games on fieldturf.
Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-1 in Seahawks last 7 playoff games.
Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games in January.
Over is 7-3 in Seahawks last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 7-3 in Seahawks last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 17-8 in Seahawks last 25 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.


Head to Head

Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Seattle.

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Trends - Indianapolis at New England

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

Indianapolis

Colts are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Colts are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Colts are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Colts are 23-11-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.

New England

Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 54-22-2 ATS in their last 78 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff home games.
Patriots are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.


OU Trends

Indianapolis

Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 playoff road games.
Under is 7-1 in Colts last 8 Saturday games.
Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 Divisional Playoffs games.
Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in January.
Under is 8-3 in Colts last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 13-5 in Colts last 18 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 10-4 in Colts last 14 playoff games.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 21-9 in Colts last 30 vs. AFC.
Under is 17-8 in Colts last 25 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

New England

Over is 3-0-1 in Patriots last 4 Divisional Playoffs games.
Over is 3-0-1 in Patriots last 4 Saturday games.
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 home games.
Over is 13-3 in Patriots last 16 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games in January.
Over is 17-5 in Patriots last 22 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 13-5 in Patriots last 18 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 44-18-1 in Patriots last 63 games on fieldturf.
Over is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 38-17 in Patriots last 55 vs. AFC.
Under is 13-6-1 in Patriots last 20 playoff home games.
Over is 49-23 in Patriots last 72 games overall.
Over is 40-19-2 in Patriots last 61 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 48-23 in Patriots last 71 games following a ATS win.
Over is 37-18 in Patriots last 55 games following a S.U. win.


Head to Head

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New England.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

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NFL Consensus Picks

January 11, 2014 » As of 10:35 pacific time

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

8:15 PM Indianapolis +7.5 2070 62.71% New England -7.5 1231 37.29% View View

4:35 PM New Orleans +10 2259 65.65% Seattle -10 1182 34.35% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

4:35 PM New Orleans 43.5 1516 53.84% Seattle 43.5 1300 46.16% View View

8:15 PM Indianapolis 50.5 1601 59.56% New England 50.5 1087 40.44% View View

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Visiting Team Home Team Game Time & Date Forecast for Game Time

New Orleans Saints Seattle Seahawks Event Details 1:35 PM PST on January 11, 2014 49° F/ 9° CThunderstorm


Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Event Details 8:15 PM EST on January 11, 2014 54° F/ 12° CThunderstorm

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Saturday, January 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 4:35 PM ET Seattle -10 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Seattle - Over 43.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

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goy goes off tomorrow