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Divisional Trends

January 6, 2014


Divisional Round Breakdown

There are only eight teams left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy, and today at Vegas Insiders, we're breaking down the four games with some great trends to remember for each of the games.

No. 6 New Orleans Saints at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks
The Line: Seattle -8 (47.5)

The Seahawks won the first meeting of the year 34-7, and they still have only lost one game at home in the career of QB Russell Wilson. They've got four straight ATS wins against teams with a winning record at home, and they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 against teams with winning records. New Orleans did cover last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, but that ended a skid of six straight ATS losses away from home. New Orleans has gone just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 playoff games. The 'under' is 5-0 in New Orleans' last five road games, and it is 5-0 in Seattle's last five games played since their Week 12 bye.

No. 4 Indianapolis Colts at. No. 2 New England Patriots
The Line: New England -7.5 (53)

These two teams didn't meet this season, and this is the only matchup of the weekend where the two teams haven't squared off. Last season though, New England won 59-24 when these clubs met. There have only been two other teams in NFL history who have come back from down 24 points or more to win playoff games. The next week, those teams are 1-1 SU and ATS with extremely mixed results. The Buffalo Bills stormed into the AFC Championship Game after beating the Houston Oilers. The San Francisco 49ers collapsed and lost by 35 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Pats are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games, and they have played 10 of those 11 games here at Gillette Stadium (2-8 ATS). New England went 6-2 ATS this season at home. The 'under' has cashed in Indy's last six playoff games, but the 'over' is 44-18-1 in New England's last 63 games played on field turf. The 'over' is also 3-0-1 in New England's last four playoff games played in the Divisional Round of the postseason.

No. 5 San Francisco 49ers at No. 2 Carolina Panthers
The Line: San Francisco -1.5 (43)

The Panthers are the only home underdogs this weekend, and this game also represents the lowest 'total' of the week to boot. The Niners didn't score an offensive touchdown in a 10-9 loss at home to these Panthers earlier this year. Carolina has only been to the NFC Championship Game two other times in its history. San Fran has been there in consecutive seasons. The Panthers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Niners have won seven games in a row and are 4-2-1 ATS in those games. The 'under' is 8-1 in Carolina's last nine games, but the 'over' is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in this series.

No. 6 San Diego Chargers at No. 1 Denver Broncos
The Line: Denver -10 (54.5)

The Broncos are the biggest favorites of the weekend, and this one has the highest 'total' on the board even though both games this season were decided by one score and neither got into the 50s. San Diego is the only team to win in Denver this season. The Bolts have gone 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight against AFC West teams, but both the loss and the push came against San Diego. The 'under' is 6-2 in the Chargers' last eight games overall, while Denver has pushed four straight playoff games past the closing number.

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

The six best bowl games this year, in my opinion.........

-- Colorado State 48, Washington State 45-- Coogs led 45-30 with 3:00 left to play. Rams scored 11 points in the last 0:33.

-- Pitt 30, Bowling Green 27-- Both teams scored on special teams- Pitt kicked FG with 1:17 left to win it.

-- Central Florida 52, Baylor 42-- UCF's offensive coordinator is from Albany; he made Blake Bortles a rich kid. Excellent win for UCF.

-- Missouri 41, Oklahoma State 31-- Not often you give up 548 yards and win, but Mizzou did and they did.

-- Clemson 40, Ohio State 35-- Urban Meyer will see screen passes in his sleep all winter.

-- Texas A&M 52, Duke 48-- Johnny Manziel's last game for A&M was the usual thrill ride. College football will miss him.


*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.....

13) Colts 45, Chiefs 44-- KC started season 9-0, wound up 11-6, blowing 38-10 lead here, which almost never happens. Considering they were 2-14 last year, this was a great season, but a bitter ending.....Chargers' win keeps a Manning-Colts playoff game from happening, at least this week.

12) Saints 26, Eagles 24-- New Orleans had 434-256 edge in total yardage, but needed FG at gun to win it. Saints are now 1-5 in road playoff games in their 47-year history. Eagles only ran the ball for 80 yards.

11) Chargers 27, Bengals 10-- Cincy won/covered all eight home games in regular season, then went -4 in turnovers here. Dalton had an awful game for a team that hasn't won a playoff game since 1990, before the Internet existed. If you want to criticize Marvin Lewis, check out the Bengals' history before he became their coach-- very, very ugly.

10) 49ers 23, Packers 20-- Kaepernick's running was difference-maker in a very interesting game. All three home teams who played outdoors got beat; Colts were only home winner, and they were down 38-10.

9) This is first time in ACC basketball history that Duke/North Carolina/ NC State all lost their conference opener in same season.

8) Early leader for best new word of 2014: Twidicule-- getting ripped on Twitter. If you're not on Twitter, you're missing out- it can be great fun, lot of information out there. Freedom of expression is a wonderful thing.

7) UCLA 107, USC 73-- Steve Alford wins first Battle of LA with Andy Enfield, who doesn't have near enough good players right now. Eventually he will, then these games will become must-watch TV.

6) Wake Forest 73, North Carolina 67-- Deacons survived 19-33 shooting on line to win here. Tar Heels are as erratic as any team I can remember, but this is a big win for Jeff Bzdelik, who has lot of critics in Winston-Salem.

5) Just when you thought Southern Illinois' basketball season couldn't get worse, their team bus got stranded in heavy snow on I-57 Sunday night, after Salukis got pounded by Illinois State. They're expected to stay on the bus overnight, with enough food/gas to remain safe.

SIU is 4-11, their coach Barry Hinson became an Intermet sensation when he publicly ripped the players who didn't hide their disdain for him- the coach's son-in-law tragically died two days later. Hinson and two assistants went recruiting after the game and aren't on the bus. Must be a happy group.

4) Odd fact; in 1972, Miami Dolphins went 17-0, the last undefeated team in the NFL, but they had to win the AFC title game at Pittsburgh. Anyone remember how they decided home field for playoffs back then? I can't.

3) FOX Sports1 is keeping Bill Raftery busy; he did two games on New Year's Eve (St John's-Xavier/Villanova-Butler), did Oregon-Colorado game Sunday. Good to hear Raftery doing games outside the east-- think he's the best analyst on college hoop right now-- him and Greg Anthony.

2) Pro sports teams often bring motivational speakers in the night before a big game, to get the players focused; 49ers brought in Ric Flair to speak to the squad Saturday night. If you don't know, Flair is a former pro wrestler, who is a bigger than life personality with the catch phrase, "To be the man, you gotta beat the man!"

Dustin Pedroia gave his thumbs-up on Twitter for Flair as a motivational speaker; can't argue with the results, 49ers got a big road win.

1) RIP Mr Jerry Coleman, an American hero who was a Marine pilot in two wars, as well as a terrific second baseman and later an announcer for 30+ years, mostly with the Padres, passed away Sunday at age 89.

If you ever heard him on the air, you could tell he was a very nice man with a sense of humor and keen wit. But flying in two wars, that takes onions man, flying a plane when people are trying to shoot you down. RIP, sir.

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NFL Divisional Weekend opening lines

With Wildcard Weekend in the books, next week's NFL Divisional Weekend matchups are set and early lines are already out.

The San Diego Chargers' reward for their impressive 27-10 road win in Cincinnati is a trip to Denver to face the Broncos. The Broncos are listed as early 10-point faves in what will be the third time they play each other this season. Back in Week 10 the Broncos covered a 7-point spread in San Diego winning 28-20, but the Chargers returned serve by going into Denver five weeks later and stealing a 27-20 victory in a game where they were 10-point dogs.

The Patriots opened as 7.5-point home faves as they welcome the Colts and Andrew Luck to Gillette Stadium, where New England went 6-2 ATS this season. The Colts earned the trip to New England with their improbable 45-44 comeback win over Kansas City Saturday. This is the first time these two teams will face each other this season.

In the Saturday NFC matchup The New Orleans Saints travel to Seattle to take on the top seeded Seahawks who opened as 8-point home faves. This will be a rematch of a Week 13 game where the Seahawks manhandled the Saints 34-7 in Seattle on Monday Night Football and obliterated the 6.5 point spread. The Saints were 1-7 ATS on the road this season, but managed to claim their franchise's first ever road playoff win Saturday in Philadelphia.

In a rematch in what might have been the game of the year in the NFL, The San Francisco 49ers take on the Panthers in Carolina. This game has opened as a Pick'em, which seems appropriate seeing as both teams love to run the ball, play great defense and have a dynamic quarterback. The first meeting was the Panthers' breaking out party of sorts, as they bruised their way to 10-9 victory at Candlestick Park.

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Divisional Playoff History

January 7, 2014


Divisional Playoff games have historically been the territory of home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), their dominance has not been especially pronounced in recent years. Indeed, since the 2004 postseason, road underdogs stand 23-16 against the number in the Division Round.

Remember some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round. Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts have been off a "bye" and a week of rest.

And almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round "bye" group, including 54 of the last 70 Super Bowl participants since '78 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced).

However, at least one top conference seed has met defeat in seven of the past eight seasons, including Denver in the AFC a year ago.

Also identifiable with this round are lopsided results, which have recurred with regularity over the decades. In fact, since 1975, more than half of these games have been decided by double-digit margins.

Favored teams laying a TD or more (usually representing the cream of the NFL crop) have covered at a 56% (42-33-1) in the Division Round since '75.

The strongest trend in recent years has been on the "totals" side, "overs" in particular, now 11-1 since the 2010 season playoffs (and 4-0 a year ago).

Following are the point-spread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975. Our "charting" begins with the '75 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.

A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.

CATEGORY RESULT

Favorites vs. line... 76-72-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up... 104-47
Favored by 0-3 points... 9-15-1
Favored by 31/2-61/2 points... 26-23-1
Favored by 7-91/2 points... 27-22
Favored by 10-131/2 points... 12-8
Favored by 14 points or more... 3-3-1
Home teams straight up... 107-45
Home teams vs. spread... 79-70-3
Home favorites vs. spread... 74-68-3
Home underdogs vs. spread... 4-2
Home picks vs. spread... 1-0
Over/under (since 1986...) 60-48

MARGINS OF VICTORY

1-3 points... 36
4-6 points... 12
7-10 points... 26
11-13 points... 12
14 points or more... 66

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Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- Cavaliers traded Andrew Bynum to the Bulls for Luol Deng, as Chicago dumps salary; they've already cut Bynum, who doesn't seem to like being a basketball player very much. Pure salary dump by Chicago.

-- Dolphins/GM Jeff Ireland parted ways, meaning Ireland got fired but is allowed to say they "parted ways". How many NFL people associated with Richie Incognito wound up losing their job?

-- Not sure I mentioned this: Duke is out of the basketball top 10 for first time since November 2007.

-- Every NHL team has 2+ guys going to the Olympics; three teams have ten guys each playing. NHL shuts down for 17 days during the Olympics.

-- Iowa coach Fran McCaffery got suspended for the Hawkeyes' next game, after his meltdown at Wisconsin. Chuckles the Clown could coach Iowa and they'd beat Northwestern, which is the game McCaffery will miss.

-- Michigan State 72, Ohio State 68-- Spartans led by 17 with 7:10 left to play, blew the lead, then held the Buckeyes off in OT. Excellent game.


*****

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but......

13) You’d think Jimbo Fisher would take a nice vacation after Florida State won national title, but January is a huge recruiting month; college football coaches recruit their butts off up until Signing Day, which I think is February 5 this year. You want to win games, you better recruit well, and this is the main month for that. Monday night’s win was a pretty good infomercial for the Seminoles, don’t ya think?

12) Average attendance for the 35 bowls this year was 48,793, lowest since 1979. Addition of several minor bowls have hurt the overall average, and there’s going to be three more next year, including one in the Bahamas.

11) Surprised no one has scooped up Johan Santana as a free agent this winter; he should be healthy after arm surgery in 2011, not sure what kind of $$ he is asking for, but he’s going to help someone.

10) San Diego State’s basketball win at Kansas Sunday is a boost for the whole Mountain West Conference, raising the Aztecs’ profile, so every team that beats them also gets a lift. Could result in the league getting an additional bid on Selection Sunday.

9) Let me see, the college football title game was in Pasadena; the Super Bowl is in New Jersey. Advantage, college football.

Ranking the eight remaining NFL playoff teams……
8) Colts—Looked very dead when down 38-10 at home Sunday. Indy rallied to win, now head to frigid Foxboro this week. Since 2001, Belichick is 8-1 in this round, 4-4-1 vs spread.

7) Chargers—Last four Super Bowl champs were the Eagles’ opponent in their home opener. Chargers were that team this year. I’m just sayin’….

6) Saints—Got their first-ever road playoff win in Philly, go for two in row this week; their worst game this season was a 34-7 primetime loss at Seattle in Week 13- they'll play better this week. Will it be enough?

5) Patriots—At some point the Patriots’ negligence in surrounding Brady with good skill people is going to bite them; they can beat Houston/Cleveland with what they have, but not elite teams. I’m saying they go out next week.

4) 49ers— Lost 10-9 at home to Carolina in Week x. Facing a much tougher defense and a more mobile QB this week. At least the weather will be better.

3) Panthers—Home underdogs against a team they already beat after they get a bye? Something tells me Ron Rivera is playing the “no respect” card this week.

2) Seahawks—Bengals were dominant at home this year; look how much good it did them in playoffs. Saints already got squashed here once this year, Seahawks go for the sweep Saturday.

1) Broncos—Wonder if Manning would’ve rather faced the Chargers or his old team the Colts here? My theory has always been that divisional rivalries are more likely to provide upsets, so if I was a Denver fan, I’d rather they’d have played the Colts. San Diego is on a serious roll right now, and McCoy worked with #18 for a year, so that’s an advantage.

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NFL line watch: Keep an eye on Chargers-Broncos total

Spread to bet now

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+2)

After winning last week in Lambeau Field, the 49ers will be backed by the public this week.

That public money is going to go up against the sharp, professional money as those bettors will be on the underdog in this game.

San Francisco is a known commodity with the public after playing in the Super Bowl last season. The 49ers also have revenge in this game after losing at home 10-9 to Carolina as 6-point favorites earlier this season. Revenge is a strong betting angle for public bettors.

There’s also liability for the sportsbooks with teasers in this game, especially with the current line of Panthers +2. They make a strong teaser bet, especially with the total low at 42. The sportsbooks want to get this line down to at least 1 for that reason, and since we expect the sharp money to be on the underdog, we suggest betting Carolina now as the current number will be gone soon.


Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts (+7) at New England Patriots

The world was against Indianapolis in their game against Kansas City last week.

The Colts went from a 2.5-point favorite to a 2.5-point underdog at one point in the betting last week. The public and sharps were both on the Chiefs as a small underdog and the big money move showed dislike for the Colts.

The way the game played out swayed nobody’s opinion as the Colts trailed 38-10 in the second half. While they wasted all their energy, the Patriots were sitting at home and getting rest.

Some sportsbooks have already moved this line to New England -7.5 and it will most likely go higher once the public starts betting. If you like the Colts in this game wait until right before kick off as the best number will be available then.


Total to watch

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (54.5)

It will be interesting to see what the bettors do with the total on this game, especially since this is the third meeting of the season between San Diego and Denver.

The oddsmakers opened this total high at 54.5, which is the highest of the four games this weekend. The first game in San Diego had 48 points scored and the second meeting in Denver had 47 points scored.

San Diego has played 14 of their 17 games Under 55 points and two of those Overs came in Weeks 1 and 2. So over their last 15 games, the Chargers are 14-1 to the Under based on the posted total.

Denver went 10-6 to the Over based on the current total with two of those Unders coming against the Chargers. In Denver’s home playoff game last year, the Broncos and Ravens combined to score 73 points.

Overall, it’s hard to play Denver games Under the total. But the numbers suggest that’s the way to play this game. Some sportsbooks have moved the total to 55, so we’ll see which way the money moves this total come Sunday afternoon.

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Can Branch be Colts' 'Inside Man' versus Patriots?

The Indianapolis Colts are taking a page out of the New England Patriots’ dirty bag of tricks, signing former Patriots receiver Deion Branch just in time for Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round matchup in New England.

The Colts added the 34-year-old Branch, who played seven seasons with the Patriots, due to injuries to the WR corps. However, the question had been raised whether or not Branch will be used for his inside info on New England and QB Tom Brady rather than his aging skill set.

“We figured the questions were going to come up that we were signing this guy who spent some time in New England," Colts head coach Chunk Pagano told reporters. "Is it just a coincidence or do you need the guy to help you win a football game and help your team? Every decision we make is based on what's best for this team and what gives us the best chance to win, and we think we have one heck of a football player."

Before the Patriots get their panties in a bunch over the Branch signing, they should look in the mirror – or back to January 2012 when New England signed former Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels as an offensive assistant just before taking on the Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round. The Patriots rolled Denver 45-10 as a 14-point home favorite.

Not all “inside man” signings work out though. The Baltimore Ravens brought in two of Peyton Manning’s most popular targets this season, TE Dallas Clark and WR Brandon Stokley, but their familiarity with Manning didn’t make a difference in Broncos’ 49-27 trouncing of the Ravens as 7.5-point chalk in Week 1 of the season.

The Colts are 7.5-point underdogs in New England Saturday. The total is set at 53 points.

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QB Tom Brady still fired up for playoffs

January 7, 2014


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) - Tom Brady head-butted teammates before his first Super Bowl.

Twelve years and four more NFL championship games later, the quarterback hasn't lost his fire.

He still shows it before games and after big plays by banging helmets with other New England Patriots.

''I'm pretty emotional,'' Brady said Tuesday.

That should be obvious when the Patriots come back from a first-round bye to face the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC divisional-round playoff game Saturday night. Especially if he has plenty of scoring plays to celebrate.

His mood would be quite different if NFL sacks leader Robert Mathis keeps getting close enough to tackle him or hurry his passes.

''He's a great player and been a great player for a long time,'' Brady said. ''He's having one of the best years of his career.''

So what can Brady do if he sees the 11-year veteran bearing down on him?

Step up in the pocket? Throw quickly? Duck?

''I can't really run away from him,'' Brady said with his usual jab at his lack of speed, ''so that option's out the door.''

There's no doubt he'll have his eyes trained on the linebacker who lines up in different places on different plays.

''You have to understand where he's at. He really has a sense of urgency,'' Brady said.

And a knack for stripping the ball while sacking the quarterback.

''That's why he's one of the best players in the league, because he makes those types of plays happen,'' Brady said. ''He makes them on a regular basis. It's not a fluke when he does it.''

Mathis led the NFL with 19 1-2 sacks and forced eight fumbles. His strip-sack of Kansas City's Alex Smith led to a Colts touchdown in their 45-44 wild-card win over the Chiefs last Saturday.

The Colts overcame a 28-point, third-quarter deficit to win that. The Patriots overcame a 24-point halftime deficit against the Denver Broncos for a 34-31 regular-season overtime win.

''It was a great game, a great team win,'' Brady said of Indianapolis' victory. ''Once you get some momentum going on your side, it's pretty remarkable to be able to do that.''

Another big lead Saturday night likely won't be safe until the very late stages, not with Brady and Andrew Luck leading their offenses.

''We've been in a lot of close games, they've been in a lot of close games,'' Brady said. ''They find a way to win them. That's how they got to this point.''

The Colts are 6-1, including the playoffs, in games decided by six points or fewer. The Patriots are 8-4 in games decided by seven or fewer.

Brady downplays the meeting with Luck, who has a chance to match Brady's accomplishment of winning a Super Bowl in his second season.

The chance to keep the youngster from upstaging the all-time great doesn't provide extra motivation.

''My motivation is pretty simple,'' Brady said. ''I just try to win. That's what I try to do and try to be part of the reason why we're successful.''

For Luck, Brady can serve as an example.

''He has definitely set the standard for success at the quarterback position,'' Luck said, ''the way he handles himself, watching from afar, the competitive nature and basically all the right things he does. Yeah, I guess he is a barometer and he is the standard.''

The Patriots practiced indoors Tuesday with the outside temperature in the low teens. Brady said he had a cold.

''A little bit, but I'll live,'' he said. ''Hopefully not on the injury report. I'll try to talk my way out of that one.''

Brady wants to be around for it all - the practices, the games, the celebrations. So he's treating this week with his usual intensity.

''I think he's just trying to relay that to everyone else,'' Patriots defensive end Rob Ninkovich said. ''You do your work now. You put in the time now. You study the tape and you practice hard now, so when the games come you've already done it three times in the week. So you go out there and just play and have fun.''

In his 14th NFL season, the enthusiasm of the MVP of the 2002 Super Bowl persists.

''It's incredible to play in this,'' he said. ''These are the moments you dream about, to be in the NFL playoffs and you have a chance with eight other teams to be the last team standing.

''It's why we work hard. It's why every guy puts a lot out there. You sacrifice a lot of things. A lot of people would die to be in our positions. I don't think you take those things for granted.''

[StarDust Bum]

Rivera: Kaepernick will be tough to stop

January 7, 2014


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Panthers coach Ron Rivera is expecting a few more big plays from San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick this time around.

Rivera says that Kaepernick ''didn't play that well'' against Carolina in a regular-season matchup on Nov. 10. The Panthers limited the third-year quarterback to 91 yards passing, 16 yards rushing and no touchdowns in a 10-9 win over the 49ers at Candlestick Park.

On Sunday, the two teams meet in the NFC divisional playoffs in Charlotte, N.C., and Rivera expects Kaepernick will be on his game - and make it that much tougher on his defense.

''I don't expect that again,'' Rivera said Monday. ''I expect the young man to come out and play well. He's a good football player and he showed it (Sunday) night'' against Green Bay.

The 49ers have won six straight games, including a 23-20 playoff win over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Kaepernick threw for 223 yards and a touchdown and ran for 98 yards against the Packers.

Over the past six games, Kaepernick has elevated his play, averaging 231 yards passing per game with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Rivera says the 49ers are a much better team than they played back in November.

''All you have to do is watch the way he has played down the stretch,'' Rivera said. ''We caught them at a good time and it turned out in our benefit.''

Perhaps.

Kaepernick was without wide receiver Michael Crabtree in the last meeting and tight end Vernon Davis left early in the game with a concussion. Crabtree had eight catches for 125 yards in the win over Green Bay.

Mario Manningham led the 49ers with 30 yards receiving in the last game against Carolina and San Francisco's longest pass play went for 14 yards. The 49ers managed just 10 first downs against Carolina and failed to get into the end zone.

''We owe them,'' Kaepernick said Sunday of the Panthers.

San Francisco's win over Green Bay served as a stark reminder of what not to do while defending Kaepernick.

Defensive coordinator Sean McDermott pointed to a crucial moment on the final drive when the outside edge rusher lost containment and Kaepernick scooted free for an 11-yard gain on third-and-8. Five plays later Phil Dawson kicked the winning field goal as time expired.

McDermott said his defense did a nice job of staying in their rushing lanes and keeping Kaepernick in the pocket last time around, sacking him six times.

He said that will be key on Sunday, too.

''I thought our guys played aggressive up front,'' McDermott said. ''We played discipline. The coverage was good enough at times to get him to hold the ball.''

Defensive tackle Dwan Edwards also stressed the importance of not trying to do too much outside of the scheme.

''Our defensive ends can't get too far past the quarterback or he takes off and it gives him huge lanes,'' Edwards said. ''It's important that everyone stays in their lanes and when someone does get out of their lane we have to cover that up quickly.''

McDermott said the last game against the 49ers felt like an old school NFC playoff slugfest.

But like Rivera, he's not so sure it will be such a low-scoring affair this time around.

''You just never know in the playoffs,'' McDermott said. ''You saw the scores this past weekend. You had some halves where teams were completely shut down, and then they came out and exploded. ... I'm sure they're a better football team and I'd like to believe we're a better football team as well.''

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Broncos feel late losses make them better

January 7, 2014



ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) - A year ago, Denver roared into the playoffs riding an 11-game winning streak and promptly lost for the first time in 98 days.

So much for momentum.

This year, the Broncos are again 13-3 and the AFC's top seed, two home wins away from the Super Bowl.

Only, they're far from the overconfident, sauntering unit they were at kickoff on that frigid day in Denver last January when the Baltimore Ravens would outlast them 38-35 in double-overtime.

For one thing, the team they're facing Sunday, the San Diego Chargers (10-7), beat them last month 27-20 in Denver, handing the high-scoring Broncos their only home loss of the season.

And the other teams left in the AFC playoffs also beat the Broncos this season, the Colts by six points in Peyton Manning's homecoming in October and the Patriots by a field goal in Wes Welker's return in November.

Terrell Davis, the current NFL Network analyst who led the Broncos to their last Super Bowl win following the 1998 season, said the Broncos would have been better off last year if they had lost a game or two in November and December.

''Last year, (I) just felt like they were winning games too easily and I always felt that there's something to be said about a quality loss,'' Davis said on a visit to Denver during training camp. ''Not to say that you go out there and try to lose a game, but it's a chance for the team to refocus, recalibrate, look at the things that you've been sweeping under the rug because you've been winning games.''

Coming off their first Super Bowl title, the Broncos started out 13-0 in 1998 before back-to-back losses to the Giants and Dolphins. They won their last game before sweeping through the playoffs to win another title in John Elway's farewell.

It's common for NFL teams that win to have ''Victory Mondays,'' when players are excused from mandatory practices or film sessions. It's a chance for them to get both a physical and mental break.

But Davis pointed out the downside of winning regularly: Mistakes can get glossed over and it sometimes takes a loss to make adjustments. Good teams can go months without that opportunity.

Davis actually came to appreciate the Broncos' 20-16 loss to the Giants that ended their shot at perfection in '98 because it gave them a chance to reflect, reboot and rectify.

It's something the Broncos didn't have a chance to do last year when they won their last 11 after starting out 2-3.

This season, the Broncos lost a game in October, one in November and one in December.

''Victory Mondays'' in Denver nowadays consist of team captains running the film sessions instead of coaches. But after a loss, it's the coaches harping on all the mistakes.

Wide receiver Eric Decker said errors look worse through the prism of a loss, and ''you start to focus on details more. Maybe you correct certain things that in a win wouldn't look so bad. You just really dissect it way differently.''

Losses have a way of galvanizing a team, too.

''Absolutely,'' Welker said. ''A lot of times when you win, a lot of the mistakes get shoved under the rug and when you lose they kind of get amplified. You really need to be on top of that stuff and not have those mistakes week to week.''

Tight end Jacob Tamme said the Broncos learned plenty from their loss last month to the Chargers.

''It taught us a lesson,'' Tamme said Monday. ''We did kind of reboot after that and yes, I think we know that we need to play our best ball going forward and that's what we're planning on doing.''

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John Fox proves flexibility since return

January 7, 2014


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) - Ever since returning from his heart operation last month, Denver Broncos coach John Fox seems like a new man. More pep in his step, more color in his face, more boom in his voice.

Even more gumption in his calls.

Like having his offense go for it on fourth down - in the first quarter. And sending in Matt Prater for a 64-yard field goal attempt on an icy afternoon in Denver.

Or ordering his high-powered offense not to milk the clock with a big lead at Houston, where Peyton Manning broke Tom Brady's single-season touchdown record with a late score to cap a 37-13 rout.

Could this be the same man who had Manning take a knee with three timeouts and 31 seconds remaining in regulation in the playoff game last year after Baltimore's Jacoby Jones' 70-yard game-tying TD catch?

Has Fox turned in his conservative credentials?

While Fox said his health scare did cause him to re-evaluate some things, he insists it didn't have a profound effect on his approach to his job.

''Not really. I think it's just kind of a blip,'' said Fox, who missed four games before returning to the sideline six weeks ago. ''It's like an injury to a player. When you come back, you hope you're the same player again. So, I just look at it as a setback.''

Fox, with deep defensive roots in the Chuck Knoll coaching tree, just presided over the highest-scoring team in the Super Bowl era, one in which Manning set a slew of records, most notably single-season marks with 55 TD passes and 5,447 yards through the air.

''I mean, shoot, we broke just about every offensive record known to man. I don't know that that's because I've become more of an aggressive coach. I think it's because I've got a lot better offense, all right?'' Fox said in an interview with The Associated Press. ''Teams I've had in the past, we were a lot more defensive minded, more Baltimore Ravens-ish when they won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. We almost won a Super Bowl with Jake Delhomme. But we were more of a defensive-oriented team.

''You can call it conservative, you can call it aggressive, you can put any word you want on it. The reality is as a coach you're doing the things you feel necessary to put your team in the best position to win.''

In his first game back, against Tennessee, Fox chose to coach from the sideline rather than the booth. He sent Prater out for a record-breaking 64-yard field goal in 14-degree weather on the last play of the first half.

Fox briefly thought about how Auburn's Chris Davis had returned a missed field goal 109 yards for a touchdown on the final play a few days earlier to end Alabama's bid for a third straight national championship.

''That was a concern,'' Fox admitted. ''But he nailed it.''

Prater's kick barely sailed over the crossbar, breaking the record by a yard, and pulled the Broncos to within 21-20 at the break, giving them the momentum they needed for a second-half onslaught in a 51-28 win.

Following a 27-20 loss at home to San Diego - Denver's opponent Sunday in the AFC divisional round - the Broncos traveled to Houston, where Fox went for it on fourth-and-3 from the Houston 28 on Denver's second series with a 3-0 lead.

Julius Thomas hauled in Manning's pass but was tackled a yard short of the first down, Denver's only fourth-down failure in nine tries this season. The Broncos (13-3) led the NFL with an 88 percent conversion rate on fourth downs this season.

After a slow start that afternoon, Manning warmed up and threw three TD passes, tying Brady's mark of 50 set in 2007. When Denver got the ball back at midfield with five minutes remaining, offensive coordinator Adam Gase got his orders from Fox, approached his quarterback on the sideline and said, ''Hey, he wants us to play ball.''

Four plays later, Manning hit Thomas for a 25-yard TD pass that broke Brady's record.

''We didn't take the air out and we weren't going to just line up in 22 personnel (two backs, two tight ends) and stumble through the end of the game,'' Fox said this week. ''We just kept playing. You look at that wild-card game the other day, it was 38-10. So, you don't take the foot off the pedal. If you do, you can get bit. I've just seen it too much. Now, if you don't have that ability, you ain't doing that. But if you have that ability, you are.

''The game's never over until it's over.''

[StarDust Bum]

NFL mid-week line moves: NFC Divisional Round action report

Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s NFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.


New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -9.5, Move: -7, Move: -8, Move: -7.5

Some books banked on the Seahawks' dominance over the Saints in Week 13 – a 34-7 win on Monday Night Football – and opened Seattle as big as 9.5-point favorites. Other shops, like CarbonSports.ag, posted this game closer to the current number.

They opened the Seahawks -7 and instantly took big money to move the line to -8 on Saturday night. Following that adjustment, Saints money showed at the increased spread and trimmed the line to Seattle -7.5

“Most of that money that bet the Saints +8 was recreational and there’s no question in my mind, the public is on the Saints and that’s one of the reasons why we opened Seahawks -7,” Stewart tells Covers. “We expected public money to back the dog but we couldn’t ignore the sharp action that hammered the Seahawks -7. Bottom line, we’re dealing a great line at 7.5 and I very much doubt we’ll move off that number.”

The total for this NFC Divisional Round matchup has dropped as many as two points, with some markets coming down from 48.5 to 46.5. Sharp money grabbed the Under early on and the forecast for Seattle is calling for a 90 percent chance of rain showers.

“I do believe 46.5 is as low as we’ll go on this total, but we’re still four days out and all weather reports at this time indicate rain but it’s not going to be cold and no wind,” says Stewart.


San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5, Move: +1

Oddsmakers were on the fence about this NFC Divisional battle, setting Sunday’s game at a pick’em. Carolina edged San Francisco 10-9 on the road back in Week 10 but early money pounced on the red-hot Niners, driving the spread as high as Carolina +2.5 before Panthers money took the home team plus the points.

“I think our sharps realized this game was never going to get to 49ers -3 – like it did versus the Packers - and they decided to take the +2.5 while it was still there,” says Stewart. “This is a situation where sharps and the public are on opposite sides. So far 75 percent of the money is on the 49ers but we very much like our position and we’ll have no problem going into this game needing the dog.”

The total for Sunday’s game has come down as much as one point from 43 to 42 at some books. Early money sided with the Over at CarbonSports.ag, but sharp action forced the books hand, dropping the number to 42.5. The extended forecast for Carolina is calling for 27 percent chance of rain with winds getting up to 7 mph.

“I could see us eventually going to 42 as these are two very good defensive teams but more importantly, both offenses like to run the ball and eat up the clock,” says Stewart. “We’ve booked this total so far dead even so at this time, no need to move this total unless of course we see more sharp action betting us Under.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL mid-week line moves: AFC Divisional Round action report

Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s AFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots – Open: -7.5, Move: -7

The comeback Colts drew the early money for this first of two AFC Divisional Round games, first forcing an adjustment to the juice then a half-point move from 7.5 to Patriots -7. The key number is getting the job done, with bettors split on this Saturday showdown.

“Since going to -7, we’ve seen great two-way action at that number and unless a sharp group bets us this game, we won’t be moving off the key number of seven,” Stewart tells Covers.

As for the total for Saturday’s game in New England, most shops are dealing a number between 53.5 and 52.5 points. According to Stewart, early money took the Over and bumped their total from 52.5 to 53.5.

“So far, 75 percent of the action is on the Over and it’s understandable why the public is betting it Over, when you consider the Colts not only scored 45 points in last week’s playoff game, but more importantly their defense gave up 44 points and over 500 offensive yards to the Chiefs,” he says. “One can’t help but look at this game versus the Pats and think Over.”


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: -10.5, Move: -9

This will be the third meeting between the Bolts and the Broncos this season, with the teams splitting wins on the road. Early sharp money marched in on San Diego and forced an initial move to Denver -9.5 and the public followed suit, jumping on the upstart Chargers. That has kept books busy juggling the juice on this AFC West rematch. CarbonSports.ag is currently dealing San Diego +9.5 (-120).

“At this point, we’re reluctant to go to Broncos -9 or even down to -8.5, because that would allow for all our bettors to tease the Broncos down to below the key number of three and that’s a concern for us,” says Stewart, who mentions that seven of a possible eight outcomes on teasers hit during the Wild Card Weekend. “While we are concerned about going down to -9 or 8.5, if the straight action keeps backing the dog in this one we’ll eventually get there.”

As for Sunday’s AFC total, books hung the number high, with some markets posting the total at 56 points trying to protect from Broncos bettors who love to take their side and the Over. Under money has dropped the Over/Under as low as 54.5, as of Wednesday afternoon. The forecast for Denver is calling for a slight chance of snow and temperatures in the low 40s.

“So far, 60 percent of the early action is on the Under but that’s of little concern because I know by game time we’re going to need this game under as the public gets more involved over the weekend,” says Stewart. “Also, being the last game of the weekend, I have a feeling we’ll have a ton of parlay liability tied to the Over and that liability will outweigh any straight bet exposure."

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Capping NFL rematches: What to keep, throw away for the Divisional Round

Another week, another round in the NFL Playoffs and another slate of three rematches from the regular season as Wild Card Weekend breaks way into the AFC and NFC Divisional Playoffs.

Once again, we will be looking at what to keep from the previous meeting and what to throw away as team collide for a second time this weekend.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46.5)

Original meeting: 34-7 Seattle (Week 13)

What to keep: Seattle will have homefield advantage in this game, a place where they are 7-1 straight up and a spot in which the Saints struggle with their well known problems of playing outdoors beyond the Superdome. The Seahawks are just 5-3 at home ATS, but even with a road win over the Eagles in the Wild Card it is hard to trust a Saints team that is 2-7 ATS on the road.

What to throw away: New Orleans had just 44 yards rushing in its Week 13 loss at Seattle, a number that will likely improve after the Saints rushed for 185 yards in their win over the Eagles. If New Orleans can get some yardage on the ground and open up spots in the Seahakws coverage for Drew Brees with the secondary being forced to commit to the run, this should be a different game than the blowout we were treated to in the regular season.


San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 42)

Original meeting: 10-9 Panthers (Week 10)

What to keep: Both of these teams are built from defense and it was evident during their Week 10 clash when they failed to combine for more than 20 points in one of the lowest scoring matchups of 2013. Carolina gives up 15.1 points per game while the 49ers aren't too far off allowing just 17.2. It was no surprise that their original meeting was a drag em' out, low-scoring affair, and this is a game that once again could be reminding us all of when NFL playoff games were won with defense.

What to throw away: Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree were both non-factors in the Panthers' 10-9 win in Week 10. Davis left the game early from concussion and Crabtree has recently returned to peak form after being injured at the start of the regular season. Both were big contributors in the Niners road win in Lambeau with Crabtree catching eight passes for 125 yards and Vernon Davis hauling in a TD pass. If those two can continue to produce, the Niners will likely have a higher chance of success against a stingy Panthers defense.


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 54.5)

First meeting: 28-20 Denver (Week 10)
Second meeting: 27-20 Chargers (Week 15)

What to keep: Phillip Rivers can seemingly do no wrong after missing the playoffs in 2012. The QB, who has had to shake the "Choker" label more than a few times, has rattled off big wins against top caliber opponents all season. Sweeping the Kansas City Chiefs and beating the Indianapolis Colts this season, the Chargers have shown up when playing top teams during the regular season, and showed up again last week in their win over the Cincinnati Bengals. They defeated the Broncos on the road and they only lost by one score in their loss to Peyton Manning at home. If their previous encounters are any indication this game should be decided by single digits based on the numbers.

What to throw away: Denver's rushing game was non-existent in their loss as the Broncos could only muster 18 rushing yards in their last meeting. Denver manages 117 rushing yards per game so expect that trend to reverse, especially with a rested offensive line/backfield that is motivated to help Manning lead the Broncos to redemption after their shocking upset to the Ravens in this game last season at home.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL weather report: An early look at Divisional Weekend

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46.5)
There is a 90 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 40s. There will be a 15 mph wind blowing towards the Northeastern corner of the field.

Indianapolis Cots at New England Patriots (-7.5, 52)
There is a 57 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 40s. There will be a 12 mph wind blowing towards the North end zone.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick'em, 42)
There is a 54 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 50s. There will be a seven mph wind blowing across the field.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 54)
There is a 14 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the low 40s. There will be a seven mph wind blowing across the field.