The Bum's NFL Playoff POD'S, STAT'S NEWS PLAYOFF GOY !!

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Weekend


Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Wild Card Weekend:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 46.5)

Chiefs’ lack of pass rush vs. Colts’ healthy offensive line

Kansas City’s defense was one of the most feared pass rushes in the NFL, totaling 47 sacks in the regular season – third most in the AFC for an average of three sacks per game. However, over the last three games, the Chiefs pass rush is missing some teeth, registering a total of only four QB kills. Kansas City managed to get to Andrew Luck only once in its 23-7 loss to the Colts at home in Week 16.

Indianapolis has struggled to keep Luck clean this year but is getting bodies back on the offensive line and is as healthy up front as it's been all season. The Colts have watched their QB get sacked just three times in the past three games. That’s allowed Luck to complete 67.27 percent of his passes and connect for four TDs with zero INTs in that span. Indianapolis is picking up the tempo under this renewed protection, running 70.3 plays per game in that three game stretch, compared to its season average of 63.9 plays per game.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 53.5)

Saints’ TE Jimmy Graham vs. Eagles’ poor pass defense

The Saints’ struggles on the road are well documented. New Orleans musters just over 17 points per road game compared to 34 points at home and finished a dismal 1-7 ATS away from the Big Easy. New Orleans takes on an offense as explosive as its own Saturday and could look to shorten its strikes and chew up the clock, beating up an Eagles defense that allows 289.8 yards passing per game –worst in the NFL.

In order to do so, the Saints will need a hefty dose of All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham, who led the league with 16 touchdown catches and averaged more than 14 yards per reception. According to Yahoo!Sports, Philadelphia has been beaten bad by tight ends in its last two games. Chicago TE Martellus Bennett reeled in five balls for 85 yards in Week 16 and Dallas TE Jason Witten caught 12 passes for 135 yards in the season finale. Graham had 72 yards on eight receptions and a TD in a 28-12 win over the Eagles last November.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Chargers' up-tempo attack vs. Bengals’ turf surface

It’s crazy to think, with all the artificial surfaces around the NFL, that the Chargers will be playing their first game of the season on turf in Cincinnati this weekend. San Diego hasn’t touched a plastic blade of grass all year – including the preseason – with all 10 road games taking place on the real deal. Now, the Bolts hit the fast track at Paul Brown Stadium where the forecast is warming up as gametime inches closer.

San Diego first-year head coach Mike McCoy has preached speed, speed and speed all season, turning up the intensity on both sides of the ball. The Bolts run an average of 66.2 plays per game and have upped that pace in the last three, posting 68.3 plays per outing in that span. The Bengals don’t care for that kind of track meet, allowing opponents to run an average of 58.7 plays over their last three games, and now must slow down a speedy San Diego team getting a boost from the non-slip surface in Cincy.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 47.5)

Niners’ poor pass defense vs. Packers’ resurgence under Rodgers

The 49ers appear to be the hottest team heading into the postseason with six straight wins. However, last year’s NFC champs have a major chink in the armor heading into the Wild Card Weekend. San Francisco, which ranked ninth versus the pass (222.8 yards per game), has been watching opponents go over the top the past two games, allowing a total of 740 passing yards against the Falcons and Cardinals. On top of that, standout CB Carlos Rogers is hobbled by hamstring injury, leaving Eric Wright to shoulder the load in the secondary.

The return of Aaron Rodgers instantly boosts Green Bay back into the Super Bowl conversation. The Packers found balance behind RB Eddie Lacy when Rodgers was sidelined with a broken collarbone and now have a potent two-pronged attack with No. 12 back under center. Rodgers threw for 318 yards in the win-and-in showdown with the Bears and reconnected with deep threat Randall Cobb for the go-ahead score. Cobb’s return also gives the Cheese Heads depth in the passing and special teams gameplan.

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Betting NFL dogs? Amazing trend will have you thinking moneylines


If you’re thinking about taking the points this NFL Wild Card Weekend, you may want to forget the pointspread all together and go all in on the NFL underdog moneylines.

According to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence, the outright winner in NFL opening-round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980 – an astonishing 89 percent cover rate. Simply put: Whoever wins, covers the spread in the opening round of the NFL postseason.

Last season, the Houston Texas won and covered versus the Cincinnati Bengals, the Green Bay Packers won and covered against the Minnesota Vikings, the Baltimore Ravens won and covered over the Indianapolis Colts, and the Seattle Seahawks won and cover against the Washington Redskins.

In 2011-12, the Texans, Saints, Giants, and Broncos all came away with the SU and ATS victory. In 2010-11, the Seahawks, Jets, Ravens, and Packers were big for fans and bettors during the Wild Card Weekend. In 2009-10, the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Cardinals were good enough for the win and cover. And in 2008-09, the Cardinals, Chargers, Ravens, and Eagles all won SU and ATS.

In fact, the last Wild Card winners to fall short of the spread were the Jacksonville Jaguars, who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-29 but couldn’t cover as 2.5-point road favorites in the 2007-08 NFL Wild Card Weekend. The three other Wild Card winners that year – Seahawks, Giants, and Chargers – all managed to exceed the oddsmakers’ expectations.

This weekend, oddsmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) priced at +115 to win SU versus the Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at +130 moneyline underdogs at Philadelphia, the San Diego Chargers (+7) listed at +250 pups in Cincinnati, and the Green Bay Packers (+2.5) are +130 moneyline underdogs at home to San Francisco.

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NFL Wild Card Weekend trends: Home teams hitting at just 49.2 percent


Don’t look now but the 2013 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games starting this Saturday. Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends:

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2.5, 46.5)
Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2.5, 53)
Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs

San Diego at Cincinnati (-7, 47)
Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games

San Francisco at Green Bay (48, +2.5)
Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs

Home Field Disadvantage

Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year’s morning.

A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

Division Downers

Wild Card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS – including 1-7 ATS the last two years.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long 49ers.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.

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Pro handicappers share sports betting New Year's resolutions


It’s New Year’s resolution time. Some folks want to eat healthier while others plan on going to the gym more often.

They’ll likely continue eating terrible and ignoring the gym, but they do have some sports betting resolutions for 2014. They share those New Year’s resolutions with you before the clock strikes 12:00 on 2013.

Steve Merril – “I plan on focusing more on momentum in all sports. Play on teams that are hot and fade teams that are struggling, until I see a reversal or a change. Do not ask a bad team to break out of a slump and do not expect a hot team to cool off. Wait until I see visual confirmation that something has changed before going against a hot team or starting to back a cold team.”

Jesse Schule – “After a very profitable NHL season at the beginning of 2013, my fans on Facebook and Twitter started calling me ‘Iceman’, a title that I have since embraced. I haven't exactly done a great job living up to my reputation in the first few months of the current hockey season and turning that around is one of my top priorities in the New Year. If December is any indication, all signs point to a strong showing in 2014.”

Teddy Covers – “My New Year's resolution is pretty much the same every year: Pick more winners, Avoid more losers. Until I finish a year at 75 percent or higher across all sports, that's likely to be my New Years' resolution moving forward.”

Art Aronson – “I don't plan to change up too much of anything, other than I want to get more involved in playing Soccer, MMA and other sort of fringe sports. With World Cup 2014 arriving quickly, it's time to sharpen up my skills on the pitch.”

Nick Parsons – “To quit listening to other people's opinions. This is one area I need to strengthen. We all listen to the highlights the next day. We all listen to the talking heads on TV, the internet, Twitter and Facebook. But, as radio talk show host Jim Rome has pointed out many times over the course of his career, no coach, no ex-player, no expert knows sports the way that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas know sports. I'm guilty - as I'm sure we all are - of sometimes getting caught up listening to these people while formulating my final decisions on my selections. That ends in 2014.”

Marc Lawrence – “Quit trying to beat Peyton Manning each week. Finally give up on the Houston Texans. Stop betting on losing teams off a win and instead start betting on winning teams off a loss. Never use favorites with bad defenses. And finally, I will try to figure out why I really need nine e-mail addresses.”

Doc’s Sports – “In pro football, we will look to avoid using teams for two straight weeks. Momentum is less prevalent in the NFL as every player is a pro, so we will try and avoid teams that are coming off a blowout victory in prior week where everything went right. Things will not likely happen like this for the next game, and the odds have likely over-adjusted.”

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NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Weekend

New Orleans at Philadelphia
The Eagles host the Wild Card round against a New Orleans team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. Philadelphia is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 101-102: Kansas City at Indianapolis (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 132.537; Indianapolis 140.116
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: New Orleans at Philadelphia (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.432; Philadelphia 140.086
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 105-106: San Diego at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.817; Cincinnati 137.797
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7); Under

Game 107-108: San Francisco at Green Bay (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.597; Green Bay 140.991
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Over




NFL
Long Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 4

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) - 1/4/2014, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in playoff games since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 6) - 1/4/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 157-121 ATS (+23.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 5

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SAN DIEGO (9 - 7) at CINCINNATI (11 - 5) - 1/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
SAN DIEGO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (12 - 4) at GREEN BAY (8 - 7 - 1) - 1/5/2014, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 155-114 ATS (+29.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 4

Kansas City at Indianapolis, 4:35 ET
Kansas City: 1-9 ATS in playoff games
Indianapolis: 12-4 ATS in home games in games played on turf

New Orleans at Philadelphia, 8:10 ET
New Orleans: 15-5 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 games
Philadelphia: 3-12 ATS in home games in games played on a grass field


Sunday, January 5

San Diego at Cincinnati, 1:05 ET
San Diego: 2-11 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents

San Francisco at Green Bay, 4:40 ET
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Green Bay: 1-5 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games




NFL

Wildcard Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 4

4:35 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games

8:10 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, January 5

1:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing San Diego

4:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. GREEN BAY
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay19-5-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Green Bay is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Chiefs (11-5) @ Colts (11-5)—Chiefs won 23-13 (-4.5) at Buffalo in Week 9 in only game this season on artificial turf, when they were outgained 470-210 but scored two defensive TDs to turn tide in game they had no right winning; after starting season 9-0, Chiefs went 2-5 down stretch, losing to Broncos/Chargers twice each. Colts coasted to title in weak division; they beat Denver/Seattle at home, won at Candlestick but also lost 38-8 at home to Rams- go figure. Indy was +10 in turnovers in its last five games; they got bounced from playoffs in this round LY, while Reid/Chiefs combined to go 6-26- now Reid is Coach of Year in KC. Chiefs rested 20 starters last week and still almost KO’d Chargers from playoffs, week after Indy waxed Chiefs 23-7, holding KC to 132 passing yards with +4 turnover ratio (Chiefs were +22 in other 15 games). AFC #4 seed covered five of last seven when favored in this game. Five of last six Chief games, five of last seven Indy home games went over total. Curious to see if sitting 20 starters last week gives Chief players fresher legs.

Saints (11-5) @ Eagles (10-6)—New Orleans has never won a road playoff game (0-5) in franchise history; this year on road, Saints are 3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS, losing four of last five, with losses to also-ran Rams/Jets. NO scored 17 or less points in last four away games, while they averaged 34 ppg in Superdome; they do have edge at QB, with Super Bowl-winner Brees vs first-year starter Foles, who played college ball in desert (Arizona), but has had great year under rookie NFL coach Kelly. Eagles had long home losing streak until they beat Redskins in Week 11; now they’ve won four home games in row, scoring 64 points in second half of last two games at Linc. Philly led NFL in rushing yards which is big in night game in frigid condition; Saints are #19 in rush defense. Iggles were -2 in turnovers during 3-5 start to season; they were +13 during 7-1 run to division title. Saints have to play significantly better here than they have on road all year in order to advance. NFC #4 seed beat #5 seed in this game four of last five years. Six of last seven Saint games stayed under total; the of last four Philly games went over.

Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5)—Hard to believe, but this is Chargers’ first game on artificial turf this season. Cincy won/covered all eight home games, which is hard to do, even covering last week when they had AFC North wrapped up; Bengals scored 34+ points in each of last five home games- they’re in playoffs for 3rd year in row but this is their first home playoff tilt since ’09. Lewis has done great job here, but hasn’t won playoff game; he has SoCal team visiting in frigid weather here- this is his best chance to get a postseason win. San Diego was 5-7 after bland 17-10 home loss to Cincy in Week 13, when Bengals gained 250 yards in second half, outrushed Chargers 164-91; Bolts then won last four games, upsetting Broncos on a Thursday night in Denver, beating two also-rans, then getting help from refs late in last week’s OT win over Chief team that sat 20 of 22 starters. San Diego has edge in QB, always a help. AFC #3 seed is 8-4 in this game over last 12 years. Five of last six Cincinnati games went over the total; five of Chargers’ last seven road games stayed under.

49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1)—Since 2001, road teams favored in this round are 7-3 vs spread. Tough for California team to come east and play in bitter cold, which is forecast for this game. Rodgers returned after 8-week absence last week and led magical last-minute comeback over rival Bears to win division; Green Bay was 2-5-1 in his absence, with both wins by a point, including win at Dallas when they trailed 26-3 at half. 49ers won last five games to get here; they scored 9 or less points in three of four losses, not scoring a TD in second half in three of those games. SF was -6 in turnovers in their four losses, +18 in wins. Niners are 6-2 on road, 5-0 as home favorites this season. Green Bay is 6-2 this season when Rodgers starts, 3-0 at home, winning by 18-13-18 points. Pack opened season with 34-28 (+4) loss at Candlestick, when Niners gained 309 yards in second half, pulling away from 14-all halftime tie. #4 seed in NFC beat 5-seed four of last five years. This is 7th time these have met in playoffs since ’95. 49ers are better team from best division in NFL, but elements work against them here.

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Capping NFL rematches: What to keep, throw away this Wild Card Weekend

The NFL Wild Card Weekend features three rematches from the regular season, with the Chiefs taking on the Colts, the Chargers facing the Bengals, and the 49ers clashing with the Packers.

The playoffs are a completely different beast than the regular season but there are lessons learned from those previous meetings that can help NFL bettors cash in during the postseason rematches. We break down those first encounters and tell you what you should keep and throw away from those games:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Pick, 46)

Original meeting: 23-7 Colts (Week 16)

What to keep: The Kansas City Chiefs were solid on defense against the Colts despite allowing Andrew Luck to pass fo4 241 yards. Kansas City allowed just 23 points in a game in which they were saddled with terrible field position thanks to a string of turnovers. Expect similarly solid defense from the Chiefs after resting the majority of their starters during Week 17.

What to throw away: It’s unlikely that the Chiefs will turn the ball over four times again this weekend. Kansas City ranked first in the AFC in turnover margin, giving away the ball only 18 times while forcing a total of 36 turnovers – 21 INTs and 15 fumbles – on the year. The Chiefs boast a +1.1 turnover margin per game – second best in the NFL.


San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (2.5, 46.5)

Original meeting: 34-28 49ers (Week 1)

What to keep: Packers RB Eddie Lacy and 49ers RB Frank Gore each found the end zone in Week 1, posting near identical numbers. Lacy amassed 41 yards on 14 carries and added 31 yards receiving off a catch-and-run, while Gore totaled 44 yards on 21 touches while reeling in two passes for 21 yards. With wind expected to plague the passing game, each team could give the other a healthy dose of these two downhill runners.

What to throw away: Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick combined to pass for 745 yards on 48-for-76 passing in Week 1, each connecting for three TDs through the air. Rodgers is working his way back into game shape after missing extended time with a collarbone injury and Kaepernick hasn’t been able to repeat those Week 1 numbers, plagued by sporadic performances all season. The forecast in Lambeau Field is calling for chilly temperatures and winds getting up around 20 mph, so another air show from these two QBs is unlikely.


San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Previous meeting: 17-10 Bengals (Week 13)

What to keep: The Bengals held the Chargers offense to just 10 points and limited San Diego QB Philip Rivers to only 252 yards passing while forcing a costly interception on Dec. 1. Cincinnati was able to sack Rivers twice and keep things close after Bengals QB Andy Dalton struggled in the first half, giving Cincy a shot at winning the game in the final 30 minutes. The Bengals ranked fifth against the pass this season, allowing only 209 passing yards against per game, and ranked fourth in the AFC with 43 sacks.

What to throw away: Home-field advantage will not be had by the Chargers this weekend as they go from temperate San Diego to a chilly Paul Brown Stadium, where Cincinnati has yet to lose. The Chargers were .500 away from home this season, finishing 4-4 (4-3-1 ATS). If the Chargers want to keep their improbable winter run going forward, they will have to end the Bengals’ undefeated home record.

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Saturday Wild Card Tips

January 3, 2014


Chiefs at Colts (PK, 46) - 4:30 PM EST

Kansas City: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS
Indianapolis: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS

The Colts have qualified for the playoffs in each of Andrew Luck's first two seasons at quarterback, but this time Indianapolis won the AFC South. Now, Indianapolis needs to pull off the trick of beating Kansas City for the second time in a month to advance to the second round for the first time since 2009.

These two teams met up at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 16, as the Colts cruised past the Chiefs, 23-7. Indianapolis cashed outright as 7 ½-point underdogs, as the Colts overcame an early Jamaal Charles touchdown run to limit the Chiefs to zero points in the final 56 minutes of regulation. Donald Brown scored a pair of touchdowns for Indianapolis (one rushing, one receiving), while Adam Vinatieri booted three field goals in the victory. Indianapolis dominated time of possession (38:20), while the Chiefs suffered their third home loss in a row.

Kansas City is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2010, as the Chiefs jumped out of the gate this season to a 9-0 start. Andy Reid's club defeated just one team that qualified for the postseason, beating his former squad in Philadelphia back in September. The Chiefs stumbled to the finish line with a 2-5 record, combining for 101 points in blowouts over the Redskins and Raiders. During the 9-0 stretch, the Chiefs allowed 17 points or less in victory, but gave up at least 27 points in five of the final seven contests.

Indianapolis finished 11-5 for the second straight season, while winning 13 of 16 home contests since the drafting of Luck prior to the 2012 campaign. This season, the Colts won six games at Lucas Oil Stadium, including victories over the top two seeds in the NFL playoffs, beating the Broncos and Seahawks as home underdogs. The Colts' defense stiffened up over the final three games, allowing just 20 points in wins over the Titans, Chiefs, and Jaguars.

From a totals perspective, Indianapolis hit the 'under' in four of the last five contests, including each of the past three home games. However, those three 'unders' came against non-playoff squads Tennessee, Houston, and Jacksonville, all who were playing with back-up quarterbacks. Kansas City started the season at 7-3 to the 'under,' but the 'over' is 5-1 the last six games, including three straight on the highway.

Saints at Eagles (-2 ½, 53 ½) - 8:00 PM EST

New Orleans: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS
Philadelphia: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS

The Eagles and Saints both were technically not in the playoffs until winning games in Week 17, as the two teams meet up at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia held off Dallas last Sunday night, 24-22 to pick up its seventh victory in the last eight contests. New Orleans stumbled down the stretch after a 9-2 start, losing three of its final five games, but clinched a Wild Card berth with a 42-17 pounding of Tampa Bay.

Nick Foles stepped up in for Michael Vick at quarterback in Week 9 at Oakland, tossing seven touchdowns passes to keep the job for good. Foles put together a 27-touchdown campaign, while throwing only two interceptions and posting an 8-1 record as the starting quarterback of the Eagles. Philadelphia began the season losing each of its first four games at Lincoln Financial Field, but the Eagles ended up winning each of their final four home contests.

The Saints put together an 8-0 record at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, but struggled on the highway with a 3-5 mark. Among the losses for Sean Payton's team on the highway, the Saints lost to the Jets and Rams, while scoring 17 points or less in each of the last four road contests. Only two of New Orleans' wins this season came against teams currently in the playoffs (San Francisco and Carolina), as the Saints have won just once on the road since mid-October.

The last time the Saints and Eagles met was in 2012, when New Orleans cruised past Philadelphia at the Superdome, 28-13 as 2 ½-point favorites. Drew Brees tossed a pair of touchdowns, while the Saints led 21-3 at halftime. Since 1994, the Saints have played in Philadelphia only twice, with New Orleans claiming the most recent visit in the Super Bowl winning season of 2009 by blasting the Eagles, 48-22.

New Orleans has hit the 'under' in six of the past seven games, while allowing 20 points or less five times in this span. The Eagles started the season going 'under' the total in five of their first six home contests, but have hit the 'over' in each of the last two against the Lions and Bears. In 11 games with the total listed at 50 or above, Philadelphia posted a 7-4 mark to the 'over.'

[StarDust Bum]

Colts-Chiefs, Part II

January 3, 2014


AFC Wild Card Playoffs (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup: Kansas City (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) at Indianapolis (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Indianapolis -2.5, 46.5

The NFL playoffs get underway Saturday afternoon when the red-hot Colts look for a fourth straight victory (SU and ATS) when they meet the slumping Chiefs for the second time in three weeks.

Since starting the year 9-0 with 12.3 PPG and 327 YPG allowed, Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its past seven games with 27.7 PPG and 420 YPG allowed. On the flip side, Indy’s defense has held opponents to 6.7 PPG and 292 YPG during its three-game win streak, which included a 23-7 romp at K.C. in Week 16, thanks to 110 total yards and two touchdowns from RB Donald Brown. That improved the Colts to 12-2 SU (11-3 ATS) in this series since 1990, which includes a 3-0 playoff mark (SU and ATS).

That is part of the Chiefs' dismal 1-9 ATS mark in playoff games since 1992, but they have been an outstanding road team all season at 7-1 ATS (6-2 SU) where they have outscored host teams by nearly two touchdowns (30.6 PPG to 17.9 PPG).

Indianapolis is a solid 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) at Lucas Oil Stadium, despite being outgained 366 YPG to 344 YPG by these eight visitors. But in the past two seasons, the Colts are 9-0 ATS at home when the total is at least 45.5 points.

Neither team is dealing with major injuries heading into the postseason with Kansas City OLB Tamba Hali (knee) and WR Dwayne Bowe (concussion) both upgraded to probable. Indianapolis has some concerns on both of its lines, but DE Cory Redding (shoulder), DT Ricky Jean-Francois (foot) and guards Mike McGlynn (elbow) and Joe Reitz (head) all could play on Saturday.

The Chiefs generated 26.9 PPG this season (T-6th in NFL), but the only game in which they did not score at least 17 points was the 23-7 loss to the Colts two weeks ago. In that contest, they rushed the ball very well (155 yards on 7.8 YPC), but QB Alex Smith threw for just 153 yards on 28 attempts (5.5 YPA) with 0 TD, 1 INT and absorbed five sacks. For the season, the K.C. ground game rushed for a strong 129 YPG (10th in NFL) on 4.7 YPC (5th in league), but the air attack managed just 209 passing YPG (T-24th in NFL) on 6.5 yards per pass attempt (27th in league).

Smith finished the season with solid numbers of 3,313 passing yards (6.5 YPA), 23 TD, 7 INT, and he has been outstanding in both his career playoff starts. In these two contests (both in 2011 with the 49ers) Smith threw for 495 yards (7.3 YPA), 5 TD and 0 INT. But he has never fared too well indoors, going 6-6 with a 59.8% completion rate, 6.2 YPA, 8 TD and 12 INT in ideal conditions.

Smith's best offense has been to get the ball in the hands of RB Jamaal Charles, who racked up 1,980 total yards of offense (132 YPG) this season with 19 touchdowns. In the loss to the Colts in Week 16, he ran for 106 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries (8.2 YPC) and caught five passes for 38 more yards. His numbers in four career indoor games are excellent too, where he has rushed 53 times for 424 yards (8.0 YPC) and two touchdowns. In his last indoor game at New Orleans in 2012, Charles finished with 233 rushing yards (7.1 YPC) and 55 receiving yards.

In addition to Charles, the Chiefs have three capable wide receivers with more than 500 yards this season in Dwayne Bowe (673 rec. yards, 5 TD), Donnie Avery (596 rec. yards, 2 TD) and Dexter McCluster (511 rec. yards, 2 TD).

Kansas City's defense started out the year so well thanks to 35 sacks in the first seven games of the season. But injuries to both top pass-rushing OLBs Justin Houston and Tamba Hali were a big reason the club managed just 12 sacks over the final nine contests of 2013. The Chiefs gave up a ton of yards (368 total YPG, 24th in NFL), both through the air (248 YPG, T-25th in league) and on the ground (120 YPG, 22nd in NFL), but still finished the season tied for fifth in the NFL in scoring defense (19.1 PPG). This was due to a stellar third-down defense (34%, 5th in league) and a strong red-zone defense (51% TD rate, 10th in NFL).

Kansas City's defense also did a great job in making big plays, forcing 36 turnovers this year, including 24 in its eight road games. However, it will be tough take the football away from the great ball-protecting Colts.

Indianapolis committed just 14 turnovers all season, with only three giveaways in the past seven games combined. But despite this lack of mistakes, the team has been average on offense with 342 total YPG (15th in NFL), 24.4 PPG (T-14th in league), 38% third-down conversions (15th in NFL) and a 56% TD rate in the red zone (14th in league).

QB Andrew Luck cut his interception total in half from his rookie year when he threw 18 picks, finishing the season with a 60.2% completion rate for 3,822 yards (6.7 YPA), 23 TD and 9 INT. Although he struggled in his postseason debut last year in Baltimore (28-of-54, 288 yards, 5.3 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT), Luck was on target against the Chiefs in Week 16, completing 26-of-37 passes (70.3%) for 241 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT.

Although he misses injured WR Reggie Wayne, Luck has relied mostly on fellow second-year pros WR T.Y. Hilton (1,083 rec. yards, 5 TD) and TE Coby Fleener (608 rec. yards, 4 TD) when he drops back. However, it was rookie WR Griff Whalen who did the most damage against K.C. two weeks ago with seven catches for 80 yards.

The offense isn't all based on Luck though, as the Colts have rushed the football effectively this year too with 109 YPG on 4.3 YPC (13th in NFL), including 122 rushing YPG in the past three games. RB Donald Brown (537 rush yards, 6 TD) ran for 79 yards on just 10 carries against the Chiefs, which included a 51-yard TD scamper. His 5.3 YPC average ranks third in the NFL this season, and he has been a welcomed change of pace from disappointing RB Trent Richardson. The No. 3 overall draft pick in 2012 rushed for only 458 yards on 2.9 YPC with 3 TD in his 14 games with Indianapolis this year, and gained just 43 yards on 16 carries (2.7 YPC) versus the Chiefs two weeks ago.

The Colts defense has been erratic all season, allowing 33+ points four times, but holding five opponents (including each of the past three) to 10 points or less. The +7 turnover rate over the past three contests has been a key to the win streak, but a poor run defense has to be concerned with Jamaal Charles. For the season, Indy ranks 26th in the NFL in rushing defense (125 YPG) and 25th with 4.5 YPC allowed. The squad is also subpar in the red zone, allowing a hefty 59% TD rate (20th in NFL).

[StarDust Bum]

Saints look for road upset

January 3, 2014


NFC Wild Card Playoffs (NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup: New Orleans (11-5 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Philadelphia -2.5, 53.5

The Saints try to end a three-game road losing skid when they visit the surging Eagles in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs on Saturday night.

New Orleans is 1-7 ATS with a mere 17.7 PPG on the road this season, while Philadelphia has compiled 34.0 PPG during four straight home wins (3-1 ATS). But the only time these teams met in Philadelphia in the past 10 years was a 48-22 romp by the Saints in 2009, which got 311 passing yards and 3 TD from Drew Brees.

The Eagles have a red-hot quarterback (who also went to the same high school as Brees) in Nick Foles, who finished the season with the NFL’s best passer rating (119.2), throwing 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions. While this game marks Foles' playoff debut, Brees is 5-4 in his playoff career, but is 0-3 in true road games despite strong numbers in the three defeats (1,220 pass yards, 7.1 YPA, 8 TD, 3 INT). He has helped New Orleans go 15-5 ATS (75%) versus poor defenses (350+ YPG) since 2011, but Philadelphia is 23-8 ATS (74%) versus excellent offenses (6+ yards per play) in the second half of the season since 1992.

Both teams are relatively injury-free on the offensive side of the ball, but key players are missing from both secondaries with Saints S Kenny Vaccaro (ankle) on IR and Eagles safeties Earl Wolff and Colt Anderson both questionable with knee injuries.

The Saints finished the regular season fourth in the NFL in total offense (399 YPG) and second in passing offense (307 YPG), while ranking 10th in scoring at 25.9 PPG. But on the road, those numbers dipped to 356 total YPG, 275 passing YPG, with the team failing to surpass 17 points in each of the past four away contests (13.3 PPG). New Orleans hasn't been able to run the ball effectively anywhere this season with 92 rushing YPG (25th in NFL) on 3.8 YPC (26th in league) overall, and 81 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC on the road.

QB Drew Brees eclipsed the 5,000-yard passing mark for the third straight season, finishing with 5,162 yards (7.9 YPA), 39 TD and only 12 INT. With the game-time temperature expected to be in the low-30's, that doesn't bode well for Brees, who is just 4-9 in his career in 40 degrees or lower, but his numbers in these cold-weather contests have still been strong (289 passing YPG, 7.3 YPA, 23 TD, 10 INT). This season he has relied mostly on four receivers that each has more than 70 receptions this season in TE Jimmy Graham (1,215 rec. yards, 16 TD), WR Marques Colston (943 rec. yards, 5 TD), RB Darren Sproles (604 rec. yards, 2 TD) and RB Pierre Thomas (513 rec. yards, 3 TD).

Thomas leads the team in rushing with 549 yards, but averages only 3.7 YPC. RB Mark Ingram has been the most effective rusher at 5.0 YPC on his 78 carries, and he had a huge effort in the team's last road game in Week 16, rushing for 83 yards on 13 carries (6.4 YPC) against a stout Panthers run defense.

The Saints defense has improved leaps and bounds from last season when they allowed 28.4 PPG and a league-worst 440 total YPG. This season under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, those numbers have been trimmed to 19.0 PPG and 306 total YPG, which both rank fourth in league. The unit has been on the field for a league-low 27:19, thanks to the fewest first downs allowed in the NFL (17.1 per game) and a strong third-down defense (35%, 9th in league) helped out by 49 sacks (4th in NFL).

But after compiling an impressive 15 takeaways in the first seven games of the season, the defense has generated only four turnovers in the final nine contests combined. New Orleans has excelled in defending the pass (194 YPG, 2nd in league), but gives up 4.6 yards per carry (28th in league), which poses a major problem going up against the best rushing offense in the NFL.

Philadelphia averages 160 rushing YPG on 5.1 YPC, both tops in the league. RB LeSean McCoy has taken 62% of the carries, rushing 314 times for an NFL-high 1,607 yards (5.1 YPC) and nine touchdowns. The cold weather shouldn't affect his performance either, considering in the team's lone game this year with the temperature below 40 in Week 14, McCoy rushed for 217 yards on 29 carries (7.5 YPC) and two fourth-quarter touchdowns in a snowstorm.

He has also helped out the passing game greatly with 52 catches for 539 yards and two more scores. The Eagles lead the NFL in passing yards per attempt (8.7 YPA) and place ninth in passing yards (257 YPG). QB Nick Foles, who attended the same Westlake High School in Austin, TX as Brees, was 8-2 as a starter this season, finishing the year with 2,891 passing yards (9.1 YPA) on a 64.0% completion rate. During the four-game home win streak, he completed 65.4% of his throws for 944 yards (8.8 YPA), 6 TD and 1 INT.

Foles has done a nice job spreading the passes around, as six different Eagles have gained at least 440 receiving yards this season, led by WRs DeSean Jackson (1,332 rec. yards, 9 TD) and Riley Cooper (835 rec. yards, 8 TD). TEs Brent Celek and Zach Ertz have combined for 971 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.

While the offense has generated 417 total YPG (2nd in NFL) and 27.6 PPG (4th in league), the defense has been deficient in a number of areas. The unit allows the most passing yards in the NFL at 290 YPG, ranks fourth-worst in total yardage allowed (394 YPG), and its poor third-down defense (40%, 24th in league) has led to being on the field for 33:35, which is the longest of any NFL team. On the bright side, Philadelphia has stuffed the run effectively all season with 3.8 YPC allowed (4th in league) and has done an outstanding job of creating turnovers this season. The Eagles have 31 takeaways this season, forcing at least two turnovers in 11 of their 16 games this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Wild Card

January 3, 2014


Week 17 Recap

For the second straight week the ‘under’ was the winner at the betting counter, producing a 10-6 mark in Week 17. Despite the low-scoring affairs, the ‘over’ still managed to go 127-107-2 (54%) during the regular season.

Wild Card Trends

I’m not sure how much stock you put into past trends, but make a note that the ‘under’ has gone (22-14) in the first round of the playoffs the last nine seasons and that includes a 4-0 mark in the 2012-13 postseason. Last year marked the first time since 2004 that all four games had a total listed at 43 points or higher. Considering the influx of scoring this season, it’s no surprise that all four games this weekend have totals listed in the high forties and one matchup has a number in the fifties.

First Round Total History (2004-2012)

2004 (Under 3-1) 2005 (Under 3-1)

St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5 Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37

N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43 New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37

Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56 Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5

Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5 Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5


2006 (Under 3-1) 2007 (Total 2-2)

Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5 Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39

Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48 Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41

New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5 N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5

Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5 San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39


2008 (Under 3-1) 2009 (Over 4-0)

Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5 N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34

San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49 Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5

Baltimore 27 Miami 9 - UNDER 38 Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5

Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41 Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48


2010 (Under 3-1) 2011 (Over 3-1)

Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5 Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 - OVER 38

N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44 Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 - OVER 59.5

Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41 Atlanta 2 N.Y. Giants 24 - UNDER 47

Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5 Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 - OVER 34
2012 (Under 4-0) 2013

Cincinnati 13 Houston 19 - UNDER 42.5 Kansas City at Indianapolis

Minnesota 10 Green Bay 24 - UNDER 44 New Orleans at Philadelphia

Indianapolis 9 Baltimore 24 - UNDER 47.5 San Diego at Cincinnati

Seattle 24 Washington 14 - UNDER 45 San Francisco at Green Bay


Saturday, Jan. 4

Kansas City at Indianapolis: This is a very hard total to handicap because both teams have had great games statistically, which have made up for contests in which they looked dreadful. What we do know is that the Colts defeated the Chiefs 23-7 in Week 15 from Arrowhead Stadium and the closing total was 47. This week’s rematch has a number hovering in the same neighborhood (46, 46 ½) and that seems like a solid line when you look at the numbers. Kansas City started the season with an 8-2 record to the ‘under’ but the ‘over’ went 5-1 in its final six games, largely because the defense struggled down the stretch. Conversely the Colts defense played great in December, allowing 15.2 PPG and that average includes a 42-point outburst by the Bengals in Week 13. Take away that outcome, and the number dips to 8.5 PPG. It’s fair to say that both clubs are limited with big-play weapons on offense, but that hasn’t stopped the Chiefs (26.9 PPG) or Colts (24.4 PPG) from finding the end zone this season. As I mentioned above, these numbers are a tad misleading because of the up and down tendencies on both sides of the ball.

New Orleans at Philadelphia: Even though this has been an ‘over’ year in the NFL, it is surprising to know that the high-powered Saints have seen the ‘under’ go 11-5 and that includes a 7-1 mark on the road. That shouldn’t’ be surprising when you realize that New Orleans is only averaging 17.8 PPG away from home, plus its scoring defense (19.8 PPG) has improved this season. The Saints haven’t faced an offense all season like Philadelphia, who leads the league in rushing (160.4 YPG). In their final eight games of the regular season under QB Nick Foles, the Eagles averaged 33.3 PPG but the totals only went 4-4 during that span. Defensively, Philadelphia was the fourth worst unit in yards allowed (394.2) this season and more importantly, the worst against the pass (289.8 YPG), which is the strength of the Saints. Since he joined the Saints in 2006, Brees has never won a road playoff game and he shouldn’t take all the blame. In those defeats, the defense allowed 39, 41 and 46 points.

Sunday, Jan. 5

San Diego at Cincinnati: I’m a little surprised that the opening line (46 ½) hasn’t dropped on this matchup, especially with inclement weather expected. Plus, the Bengals defeated the Chargers 17-10 on Dec. 1 from San Diego in a game that was practically a stalemate in time of possession, yards, first downs and plays. The difference was turnovers, and the Chargers had three compared to two by the Bengals. Most would assume that San Diego will try to control the clock again but that’s a tough task at Cincinnati. However, a lot of people may've forgotten that the Chargers won their final two road games of the season, arguably against better opponents in the Chiefs (41-38) and Broncos (27-20). The Bengals are averaging 34.4 PPG at home, which has translated into an 8-0 record both SU and ATS. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2. If you’re looking for an angle to back the ‘under’ then you could turn to Bengals QB Andy Dalton, who will be taking his team to the playoffs for the third consecutive season. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, it has scored a combined 23 points in those games and Dalton has been intercepted four times.

San Francisco at Green Bay: Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 48 and the number has dropped to 46. Temperatures will be in the single digits come Sunday evening and the wind chill will make it even worse. Knowing that it could be tough to throw the ball in windy conditions, most would expect both teams to run the ball, which San Francisco (137.6 YPG) and Green Bay (133.5 YPG) both do well. The 49ers have much better defense (17 PPG) than the Packers (26.8 PPG), especially against the run (95.9 YPG). These teams have met three times in the last two seasons and the 49ers have won and covered all three meetings while scoring 30, 45 and 34 points. The ‘over’ easily cashed in all three games but the weather conditions were ideal in each matchup. Green Bay watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 at Lambeau Field this season. San Francisco saw the ‘over’ go 5-3 on the road this season and it enters the playoff with a 3-0 run to the ‘over.’

Fearless Predictions

Back-to-back 1-3 weeks put us in the red for $190 through the regular season. We’ve got four weeks of postseason play to get in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Saints-Eagles 54
Best Under: Chargers-Bengals 46 ½
Best Team Total: Over Saints 26

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 45 Saints-Eagles
Under 54 ½ Chargers-Bengals
Under 55 49ers-Packers

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Consensus Picks

January 4, 2014 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

8:10 PM New Orleans +3 2054 51.15% Philadelphia -3 1962 48.85% View View

4:35 PM Kansas City -2 2173 52.94% Indianapolis +2 1932 47.06% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

4:35 PM Kansas City 47.5 1747 53.16% Indianapolis 47.5 1539 46.84% View View

8:10 PM New Orleans 54.5 1814 55.94% Philadelphia 54.5 1429 44.06% View View

[BigWeiner]

I like this play

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 45 Saints-Eagles
Under 54 ½ Chargers-Bengals
Under 55 49ers-Packers

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, January 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kansas City - 4:35 PM ET Kansas City -2 500 *****

Indianapolis - Over 47.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Late Game Pod:


New Orleans - 8:10 PM ET New Orleans +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Philadelphia - Over 54.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY