The Bum's NFL Playoff POD'S, STAT'S NEWS PLAYOFF GOY !!

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Saturday, January 11

Indianapolis - 8:15 PM ET New England -7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

New England - Over 51.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Don't bet aganist Brady.....in a prime time game......

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS DIVISIONAL ROUND REPORT

NFC Divisional Playoffs

#115 SAN FRANCISCO @ #116 CAROLINA
(TV: 1:05 PM EST, FOX. Line: 49ers -1, Total: 42) - While San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick aims to continue his postseason success with a much better performance than his last against Carolina, the Panthers' Cam Newton won't make too much of his playoff debut. Trying for an eighth straight victory that would send them to their third consecutive NFC championship game, Kaepernick and the visiting 49ers look to avenge a regular-season loss to Newton and the Panthers on Sunday.

In perhaps the roughest of his 27 career starts, Kaepernick went 11 of 22 for a season-low 91 yards with an interception, was sacked a career-high six times and rushed for 16 during San Francisco's 10-9 home loss to Carolina on Nov. 10. By holding the hosts to a season-low 151 yards to win their fourth straight in the series, the Panthers also cooled off a 49ers team that at the time was riding a five-game winning streak during which it averaged 34.8 points. "We owe 'em," Kaepernick said after he threw for 227 yards and ran for 98 during a 23-20 wild-card victory at Green Bay on Sunday.

Bucking the elements by not wearing long sleeves, Kaepernick improved to 3-1 in the postseason. He defied the bitter cold and harsh winds to complete 16 of 30 passes, including eight for 125 yards to Michael Crabtree and a key fourth-quarter 28-yard scoring strike to a well-covered Vernon Davis. Kaepernick averaged only 32.8 rushing yards during the regular season, but he often used his legs to keep drives alive against the Packers. His 11-yard run on third-and-8 set up Phil Dawson's 33-yard field goal as time expired. Kaepernick has gained 362 yards while averaging 11.3 per run in his four postseason games.

"Our defensive ends can't get too far past the quarterback or he takes off and it gives him huge lanes," said Panthers defensive tackle Dwan Edwards, who took down Kaepernick for two of his three sacks this season. "It's important that everyone stays in their lanes and when someone does get out of their lane we have to cover that up quickly." The Panthers understand containing Kaepernick a second time likely won't be easy, even for a defense that was second in the NFL with 301.2 yards and 15.1 points allowed per contest, while topping the league with 60 sacks. During the 49ers' current seven-game run, Kaepernick has averaged 231.7 passing yards, thrown 11 TDs with two INTs and averaged 6.7 yards per rush while posting a 101.7 passer rating.

"I expect the young man to come out and play well," said Ron Rivera, the once-embattled Carolina coach who will guide the Panthers to their first playoff appearance in five seasons after going 12-4 to win the NFC South. "All you have to do is watch the way he has played down the stretch," Rivera added. Kaepernick also will have a stronger supporting cast this time. Crabtree, who missed the first meeting with the Panthers while recovering from a serious Achilles injury, has 28 receptions for 410 yards and three touchdowns in his last four postseason games. Davis, who left that contest early with a concussion, has 24 receptions for 583 yards with six TDs in six career postseason contests.

Frank Gore was held to 66 yards on 20 carries last weekend, but scored a TD for the fourth straight postseason game. "It's a team game and it's going to take a little bit from everybody," Crabtree said. "I think we got those key players." So do the Panthers, none more important than Newton. After a sub-standard follow-up to his stellar 2011 rookie season, Newton bounced back in 2013 to set career highs in touchdown passes (24), completion percentage (61.7) and passer rating (88.8) while also rushing for 585 yards and six scores. He's helped the Panthers win 11 of 12, leading four game-winning drives during that span.

Now, he will try to push aside the hype of his first playoff experience to help Carolina end a two-game postseason slide. The Panthers are seeking their first playoff victory since a 29-21 win at Chicago on Jan. 15, 2006 in the divisional round. "You don't want to be overthinking things," Newton said. "I have yet to experience a playoff game, but I know the atmosphere will be hectic to say the least." Newton, however, must improve after Carolina's offense was held to 17 or fewer points in two of the past four games. He completed 57.1 percent of his passes for 330 yards with three TDs and two INTs in the last two, but beat New Orleans and Atlanta.

"I need to be better, not missing throws that I'm capable of making," said Newton, who went 16 of 32 for 169 yards with an interception at San Francisco this season. Newton expects to have receiver Steve Smith back after he injured his knee against the Saints and missed the regular-season finale against the Falcons. Though Smith has not caught more than six passes or recorded more than 69 receiving yards in a game in 2013, he has seven touchdowns in eight career postseason contests. Smith caught six passes for 63 yards Nov. 10 against the 49ers, who have outscored their last seven opponents 182-114.

Carolina has posted a 200-84 scoring advantage while winning seven straight home games since a 12-7 season-opening loss to Seattle. The Panthers last made the playoffs in the 2008 season, also finishing 12-4 to win the South and earn a first-round bye before losing 33-13 to Arizona. Taking the next step after a stellar regular season will again be the focus for Carolina. "It is one of the goals you set for yourself and for your team," Rivera said. "We accomplished that first one (by winning the division) but there is a lot more left to go."

•PREGAME NOTES: The Panthers are the only home underdogs this weekend, and this game also represents the lowest total of the week to boot. The Niners didn't score an offensive touchdown in a 10-9 loss at home to these Panthers earlier this year. Carolina has only been to the NFC Championship Game two other times in its history. San Fran has been there in consecutive seasons. The Panthers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Niners have won seven games in a row and are 4-2-1 ATS in those games. The Under is 8-1 in Carolina's last nine games, but the Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in this series.

•KEY STATS
-- SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 29.6, OPPONENT 18.2.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 30.4, OPPONENT 17.3.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 19.3, OPPONENT 24.3.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 18.6, OPPONENT 6.9.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 3-12 against the 1rst half line (-10.2 Units) in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 9.9, OPPONENT 17.9.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 27-6 OVER (+20.4 Units) the 1rst half total revenging a home loss against opponent since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 11.6, OPPONENT 15.2.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 26-7 OVER (+18.3 Units) the 1rst half total revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 14.2, OPPONENT 13.1.

-- CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing their last game on the road this season.
The average score was CAROLINA 31.1, OPPONENT 11.6.

-- RIVERA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after playing their last game on the road as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 28.0, OPPONENT 18.6.

-- CAROLINA is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a division rival since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 18.2, OPPONENT 15.0.

-- CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was CAROLINA 21.3, OPPONENT 15.3.

-- CAROLINA is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.6, OPPONENT 6.8.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The Panthers edged the 49ers in early November as Carolina cashed outright as six-point road underdogs. Carolina has won four straight meetings with San Francisco since 2004, including home victories in 2007 and 2010.

--CAROLINA is 15-3 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 11-7 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--12 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--CAROLINA is 13-5 versus the first half line when playing against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--49ers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
--49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Carolina.

--Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Carolina.

•RECENT TRENDS
--49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 7-1 in 49ers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 10-2 in 49ers last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing.

--Under is 6-0 in Panthers last 6 vs. NFC.
--Under is 8-0 in Panthers last 8 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
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AFC Divisional Playoffs

#117 SAN DIEGO @ #118 DENVER
(TV: 4:40 PM EST, CBS. Line: Broncos -9, Total: 54.5) - While the San Diego Chargers enter Sunday's AFC divisional playoff game in Denver as nearly double-digit underdogs, they aren't lacking for confidence after getting the best of Peyton Manning's Broncos at Mile High last month. Coach John Fox's team is out to make sure that doesn't happen again. Denver had outscored opponents by an average of 20.4 points in winning its first seven home games before falling 27-20 to San Diego on Dec. 12. Ryan Mathews ran for 127 yards and a touchdown while the Chargers (10-7) held the Broncos (13-3) to their lowest point total of the season.

"It's tough to say you're confident knowing what you're going against. You don't want to take that the wrong way," Chargers Pro Bowl safety Eric Weddle said. "Do we believe we can win (again)? Yes. Do we know what a tough challenge it is and how great we have to play? Yeah. It's not just because it's happened in the past it's going to happen. You still have to play at a high level and do the things necessary as a team to win... We have been the underdog all year. We are out to continue to believe in ourselves." Having averaged 37.9 points during the regular season - the highest of any team in the Super Bowl era - the Broncos were held to fewer than 30 in just three games, two of which came against the Chargers.

Denver won 28-20 at San Diego in Week #10 behind 330 yards and four touchdowns from Manning. "It taught us a lesson," tight end Jacob Tamme said of last month's loss. "We did kind of reboot after that and yes, I think we know that we need to play our best ball going forward and that's what we're planning on doing." While beating the Chargers remains priority No. 1, the Broncos are also eager to prove themselves following last season's divisional round collapse against eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore. Denver gave up a game-tying 70-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left in regulation before falling 38-35 in double-overtime last Jan. 12 - exactly a year to the day of Sunday's clash.

"You don't harp on the first time you fell off your bike, but you remember falling off and you know you don't want to do it again," tight end Julius Thomas said. "So, it's not that we're dwelling on the Ravens or even if it's about the Ravens. It could have been any team that we lost to. But we do have a fresh reminder of if you don't come out and play your `A' game in this tournament, you're going to lose." Coming off a bye, Denver secured the AFC's top seed with a 34-14 win at Oakland in Week 17. The Chargers, meanwhile, won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs, and they stayed hot with a 27-10 wild-card win at Cincinnati last Sunday.

San Diego ran for a season-high 196 yards while Philip Rivers completed 12 of 16 passes for a season-low 128 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers. "Going on the road in a playoff game is not going to be easy, regardless of who you're playing," Chargers coach and former Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy said. "We're just worrying about ourselves right now, it's about us, and we're going to keep taking it one week at a time and just keep going, keep plugging away."

The Chargers have run for an average of 170.2 yards during the current five-game win streak and are 10-2 when rushing for more than 102, compared to 0-5 when they don't. It's unclear how much Mathews will be able to contribute, though, after leaving last weekend's game with a lingering ankle injury. With or without Mathews, San Diego is likely to again turn to its ground game early and often in hopes of keeping Manning off the field. Manning, who set NFL single-season passing records with 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns, will have his full complement of receivers with Wes Welker set to return.

Welker has been out since suffering a concussion Dec. 8 against Tennessee, his second in a four-game span. Despite his absence, Welker finished second in the league with 18 receptions in the red zone, one behind Chargers running back Danny Woodhead. "A lot of times teams will decide to go ahead and double Wes," said teammate Demaryius Thomas, who hauled in 14 TD receptions to rank second in the NFL. "So absolutely, it opens up things for me. If I have single-man coverage, it's something that I definitely enjoy and look forward to. "Wes brings a lot to this offense and we're excited to have him back."

Manning has lost his last three postseason games and is 4-6 in his past 10 overall against the Chargers, including playoff losses during the 2007 and 2008 seasons while with Indianapolis. Rivers has posted a 99.1 quarterback rating in going 6-2 all-time in Denver. "I've always appreciated and look forward to, as a fan of his growing up, to go against a Peyton Manning-led team," Rivers said. "The teams that we've both been on have had awesome games, and games have come down to the wire, overtime playoff games and our two games this year were really tight. "They're a No. 1 seed for a reason. This is a heck of a team and it's rare to play an opponent three times in a season and being a division opponent, one we know well, they know us well. It's going to be awesome."

•PREGAME NOTES: The Broncos are the biggest favorites of the weekend, and this one has the highest total on the board even though both games this season were decided by one score and neither got into the 50s. San Diego is the only team to win in Denver this season. The Bolts have gone 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight against AFC West teams, but both the loss and the push came against San Diego. The Under is 6-2 in the Chargers' last eight games overall, while Denver has pushed four straight playoff games past the closing number.

•KEY STATS
-- SAN DIEGO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games versus good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 24.0, OPPONENT 23.4.

-- SAN DIEGO is 7-1 UNDER (+5.9 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 20.8, OPPONENT 19.0.

-- SAN DIEGO is 10-3 UNDER (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.0, OPPONENT 20.2.

-- SAN DIEGO is 4-18 against the 1rst half line (-15.8 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 8.1, OPPONENT 12.7.

-- SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.0, OPPONENT 11.0.

-- SAN DIEGO is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.2, OPPONENT 10.2.

-- SAN DIEGO is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 9.5, OPPONENT 11.8.

-- DENVER is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 21.3, OPPONENT 29.3.

-- DENVER is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 35.0, OPPONENT 20.7.

-- DENVER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 34.5, OPPONENT 21.2.

-- DENVER is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a road win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 30.8, OPPONENT 19.3.

-- FOX is 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 24.5, OPPONENT 18.3.

-- DENVER is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 26.4, OPPONENT 29.4.

-- DENVER is 19-6 OVER (+12.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 29.8, OPPONENT 27.5.

-- DENVER is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 33.5, OPPONENT 20.8.

-- DENVER is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 34.3, OPPONENT 23.4.

-- FOX is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 29.7, OPPONENT 30.2.

-- FOX is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) in home games off 2 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 18.1, OPPONENT 16.5.

-- FOX is 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 22.5, OPPONENT 17.3.

-- DENVER is 14-3 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 17.6, OPPONENT 8.5.

-- DENVER is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) off a double digit road win over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 20.5, OPPONENT 4.0.

-- DENVER is 12-2 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 17.9, OPPONENT 8.4.

-- FOX is 20-5 against the 1rst half line (+14.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 11.8, OPPONENT 7.8.

-- DENVER is 35-14 OVER (+19.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 12.7, OPPONENT 11.2.

-- DENVER is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 12.1, OPPONENT 9.6.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
These two divisional rivals split a pair of meetings with the road team winning each matchup. Denver held off San Diego in November, 28-20 as seven-point favorites, while the Chargers shocked the Broncos in Denver a month later, 27-20 as 10-point underdogs. Each of the two games finished Under the total.

--DENVER is 20-19 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--DENVER is 25-19 straight up against SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--22 of 43 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--SAN DIEGO is 24-20 versus the first half line when playing against DENVER since 1992.
--23 of 41 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Chargers are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
--Chargers are 6-1-4 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Denver.

--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing.
--Over is 5-0-1 in Chargers last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing.

--Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 playoff games.
--Over is 9-1-1 in Broncos last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points.
--Over is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (DENVER) - good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
ATS W-L Record: 47-17 since 1983. (73.4%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15, Opponent 7.8 (Average first half point differential = +7.2)

The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (22-6).

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NFL

Sunday, January 12

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49ers at Panthers: What bettors need to know
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San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 41)

Two of the league's hottest teams will square off when the second-seeded Carolina Panthers host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday with a berth in the NFC Championship Game at stake. It's a rematch of a Week 10 battle in San Francisco, a defensive duel in which the Panthers prevailed 10-9 as part of an eight-game winning streak and an 11-1 finish to close the regular season. The 49ers have ripped off seven consecutive victories and are seeking their third straight trip to the NFC title game.

Cam Newton, the top overall pick in the 2011 draft, has Carolina in the postseason for the first time in five years, but he has been overshadowed by fellow third-year Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco advanced to the Super Bowl last season behind Kaepernick, who had the worst game of his pro career against the Panthers in November. "They got us the first time," 49ers linebacker NaVorro Bowman said. "What’s on our minds is to get them now. It’s the playoffs. Win or go home."

TV: 1:05 p.m., Fox.

LINE: This game opened as a Pick. The total has dropped to 41 from the opening 43.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (13-4): Wide receiver Michael Crabtree missed the first matchup against Carolina while recovering from surgery on his Achilles' tendon, but he offered a reminded of what an impact player he can be with eight catches for 125 yards in last week's 23-20 win at frigid Green Bay. Tight end Vernon Davis also was a non-factor in the earlier meeting after suffering a second-quarter concussion, but he reeled in a 28-yard scoring pass last week for his sixth TD reception in six postseason games. Having the duo on the field should make life easier for running back Frank Gore and Kaepernick, who was held to 91 yards passing by the Panthers. The 49ers have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, but are giving up an average of 21.3 points in the last three games after holding nine of the previous 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (12-4): Newton threw for his lowest yardage total (3,379) in his three seasons but established career highs in touchdowns (24) and completion percentage (61.7) while showing his mettle at crunch time by directing four game-winning drives. Newton is also an integral part of a running game that features DeAngelo Williams as well as contributions from Mike Tolbert and Jonathan Stewart, who expects to play for the first time in a month. A major concern is the status of veteran wide receiver Steve Smith's sprained left knee, with Panthers coach Ron Rivera admitting after Thursday's practice that Smith was not his "normal self." These is little concern over a defense - led by Greg Hardy, Charles Johnson and tackling machine Luke Kuechly - that registered a league-high 60 sacks and allowed the second-fewest points per game (15.1).

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Carolina.
* 49ers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Divisional Playoffs games.
* Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Panthers are 7-1 at home, with the only loss coming to Seattle 12-7 in Week 1.

2. Crabtree has 28 catches and three touchdowns in his last four postseason games.

3. Kaepernick has 362 rushing yards in four playoff games for San Francisco, which can tie Pittsburgh for the most championship game appearances (15) since 1970 with a win.


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NFL

Sunday, January 12

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Divisional Round Tale of the Tape: 49ers at Panthers
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The Panthers host the 49ers in a rematch of the regular season defensive battle where the Panthers came out on top 10-9.

Check out the matchup in our betting tale of the tape.

Offense

The 49ers are coming off a victory on the road against Green Bay in the Wild Card round. The 49ers finished the regular season ranked third in rushing yards averaging 137.6 and 11th in points scored with 25.4 (11th). Quarterback Colin Kaepernick completed 243-of-416 passes with a 58.4 percent completion percentage and had 21 TDs and eight INTs. The 49ers showed continued success rushing the ball into the postseason, putting up 167 yards last week. Colin Kaepernick had 227 yards and completed 16 of his 30 attempted passes (53.3 percent). Kaepernick was the leading rusher with 98 yards on seven attempts with a long of 42 yards.

The Panthers offense have shown great ability to rush the ball as well averaging 126.6 yards per game. The Panthers have completed 44 percent of their third down conversion attempts (91-for-208) and 77 percent of fourth down attempts (10-for-13). DeAngelo Williams has been the Panthers leading rusher with 201 attempts for 843 yards and three touchdowns. Quarterback Cam Newton is tied for the most touchdowns on the team (six) and has rushed for 585 yards on 111 attempts. Newton has an 88.8 quarterback rating and completed 292 of his 473 pass attempts (61.7 percent).

Edge: 49ers


Defense

The 49ers have a defense ranked no worse than seventh in points allowed, passing yards, rushing yards and total yards. The 49ers have eight players with 40 or more combined tackles lead by NaVorro Bowman with 145 tackles and fumbles recovered with four. Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks lead the team in sacks as both tallied 8.5. The 49ers are hoping Aldon Smith is healthy enough to give their pass rush a much needed lift.

The Panthers are no worse than sixth in points allowed, passing yards, rushing yards and total yards. 2012 Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kuechly is showing continued success leading the team in combined tackles with 156 and interceptions with four. The Panthers have two defensive players this year with over 10 sacks including defensive end Greg Hardy, who ranks third in the NFL with 15.

Edge: Panthers


Special Teams

The 49ers are averaging 22.7 yards on kick returns ranking them 18th and they average 8.9 yards on punt returns (17th). The 49ers have shown some explosiveness returning kicks with two runs of over 40 yards including a long of 47. LaMichael James was San Francisco's leader in kick returns with 12 returns for 321 yards averaging 26.8 yards per return. James had 23 punt returns averaging 10.9. Kicker Phil Dawson in the regular season went 32-for-36 in field goals with a long of 56 yards.

The Panthers are averaging 21.9 yards on the kick return ranking them 24th and are ranked 12th in punt returns averaging 10.5 yards. Ted Ginn had 26 punt returns averaging 12.2 yards and was Carolina's leading kick returner with 25 returns for 595 yards averaging 23.8 a return. Kicker Graham Gano was 24-for-27 on field goals with a long of 55 yards.

Edge: 49ers


Notable Quotable

“I mean, the guy’s played in a few big games, I think, in his career and seems to do pretty well in them. We don’t get too wrapped up in what everybody else thinks. If we worried about that, we sure wouldn’t be sitting here getting ready to be hosting a divisional round game, if we really got too concerned with what everybody predicted. It’s just not a really big priority around here.” - Panthers tight end Greg Olsen on quarterback Cam Newton's ability to play in high pressure games.

"A lot of people talk about different things for receivers, 40-times or three-cones, how fast they run around the little orange cones, etcetera, but pretty darn important to catch the ball for a receiver. I just have never personally seen anybody catch the ball better than Michael Crabtree does." - 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh following the 49ers win in Green Bay.

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NFL

Sunday, January 12

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Chargers at Broncos: What bettors need to know
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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-8.5, 54)

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos get a chance to avenge their only home loss when they host the sixth-seeded San Diego Chargers in the AFC divisional round on Sunday. Manning guided Denver to the top seed behind a record-setting offense that surpassed 600 points for the first time in league history. The Broncos were held under 30 points only three times and two of them came against the Chargers, who lost a 28-20 decision in San Diego before pulling out a 27-20 win in Denver on Dec. 12.

Manning set league single-season records for touchdowns (55) and yards (5,477) but he is trying to end a streak of three straight postseason defeats, including a 38-35 loss in double overtime last season when the Broncos were also the No. 1 seed. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is 6-2 in his career in Denver and is relishing the matchup with Manning. "I've always appreciated and look forward to, as a fan of his growing up, to go against a Peyton Manning-led team," Rivers said. "It's going to be awesome."

TV: 4:40 p.m., CBS.

LINE: The Broncos opened -10 and are now -8.5. The total opened 54.5 and is down to 54.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with a 13 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow across the field at 20 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (10-7): San Diego ran its winning streak to five games with a 27-10 win at No. 3 seed Cincinnati last weekend, but enter Sunday's matchup with major concerns about running back Ryan Mathews' availability. Mathews averaged 118.3 yards in the final four games of the regular season, including 127 in the victory over the Broncos that helped the Chargers control the ball for more than 38 minutes, but he aggravated an ankle injury in the third quarter last week and did not return. Rivers put up pedestrian numbers against the Bengals (12-of-16, 128 yards, 1 TD), but he completed a league-high 69.5 percent of his passes during the regular season. San Diego's defense ranked 29th in passing yards allowed (258.7 yards) but limited opponents to an average of 16.3 points over the last six games.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (13-3): Wide receiver Wes Welker returns to the lineup after missing the past two games with a concussion, giving Manning his full array of weapons - Denver is the only team in history to have five players score at least 10 touchdowns. Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs - three to Demaryius Thomas - in the first matchup with the Chargers, but he was held shut down after scoring on the opening possession of the second half. Eric Decker established career highs in yards (1,288) and receptions (87) while tight end Julius Thomas hauled in 12 scoring passes, including a 74-yarder at San Diego. Knowshon Moreno yielded more playing time to rookie running back Montee Ball down the stretch, but the onus will be on a defense that allowed 24.9 points and 254.4 passing yards per game.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Denver.
* Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC West.
* Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning is 9-11 in the postseason and has lost his first game on eight occasions.

2. San Diego led the league with 39 10-play drives during the regular season and had two more for TDs in last week's win at Cincinnati.

3. Manning (5,679) needs 177 yards to surpass Joe Montana and Brett Favre for the second-highest total in postseason history behind Tom Brady (5,949).


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NFL

Sunday, January 12

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Divisional Round Tale of the Tape: Chargers at Broncos
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The Broncos and Chargers square off for the third time this season on Sunday for a chance to play in the AFC Championship game.

Check out our match up in the betting tale of the tape.

Offense

The Chargers offensively put up the fourth most passing yards averaging 270.5 and fifth most total yards with 393.3. In the regular season San Diego showed success moving the chains completing 49 percent of their third down conversion attempts and 5-of-6 (83 percent) of their fourth down attempts. The Chargers dominated the time of possession averaging 33:35 a game. Running back Ryan Matthews notched six touchdowns and 1,255 yards over 285 attempts. Rookie Keenan Allen was the Chargers leading receiver with 71 catches for 1,046 yards. Quarterback Philip Rivers has a regular season QB rating of 105.5, completing 69.5 percent of his passes and put up a 32 TDs and 11 INTs.

The Broncos are coming off a record-setting season scoring 606 points for an average of 37.9 per game. The Broncos have completed 46 percent of their third down attempts and 89 percent of their fourth down conversion attempts (8-of-9). Knowshon Moreno leads the Broncos in rushing with 241 attempts for 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns. Demaryius Thomas averaged 15.5 yards a reception with 92 receptions and 1,430 yards and Eric Decker put up 1,288 yards from 87 receptions and 11 touchdowns. Manning put up a 115.1 regular season quarterback rating completing 68.3 percent of his passes with an unbelievable 55 TDs to just 10 INTs.

Edge: Broncos


Defense

Despite the Chargers not-so-impressive statistical defense, their defense played a key role in the Wild Card victory holding the Bengals to zero points in the second half. The Chargers defense stepped up when it mattered, holding Cincy to completing 3-of-12 (25 percent) of their third down attempts and 1-of-3 (33 percent) of their fourth down conversion attempts. Safety Eric Weddle has been the Chargers best defensive player with 115 combined tackles, one sack and two interceptions.

Outside linebacker Danny Trevathan lead the Broncos in tackles with 129 in the regular season. Trevathan accumulated two sacks, three forced fumbles and three interceptions in the regular season. Shaun Phillips found success pressuring quarterbacks with 35 tackles and 10 sacks. The Broncos defense has been successful in stopping the rush allowing only 101.6 yards per game, which ranks them eighth.

Edge: Broncos


Special Teams

Punter Mike Scifres averages 43.2 yards and has kicked 30-of-56 punts inside the 20. Keenan Allen had 15 punt returns on the year averaging 8.3 yards per return. Running back Danny Woodhead has been the primary return man for San Diego with 12 returns for 262 yards and an average of 21.8 yards. Kicker Nick Novak made 34-of-37 field goals making 9-of-9 from 40-49 yards and 2-of-2 from 50 yards.

Punter Britton Colquitt averages 44.5 yards per punt and has kicked 23-of-65 punts inside the 20. Trindon Holiday returned 32 punts averaging 8.5 yards per return including a long of 81 yards and one touchdown. Holliday averages 27.7 yards per return including 28 returns for 775 yards and a long of 105 yards with one touchdown. Kicker Matt Prater had the highest percentage of made field goals kicking 25-of-26 for 96 percent. He has been perfect (8-for-8) from 40-49 yards and 6-for-7 from 50 or more yards.

Edge: Broncos


Notable Quotable

"We won 13 games this year so I don't know what you consider us if you consider them a hot team. We went on our streaks here and there, we had our bumps in the road and I think that's made us a better team. We faced a lot of adversity this year and now it's time to put up or shut up." - Broncos Terrance Knighton on the importance of post-season efforts.

"We know them, they know us, personnel-wise. It's going to be a great game and great battle. We held them to 28 and 20 points in both games. You never know. It could be a shootout, or it could be a low-scoring game. That's the great thing about the playoffs." - Chargers Eric Weddle on the Chargers and Broncos history.

[StarDust Bum]

PLAYOFF GAME AND TOTAL OF THE YEAR.

Sunday, January 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 1:05 PM ET San Francisco +0 500 PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR.

Carolina - Over 41 500 PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR


GOOD LUCK ALL !!

Next game posted in a bit....

[StarDust Bum]

PLAYOFF GAME # 2


San Diego - 4:40 PM ET San Diego +8 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Denver - Under 54 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Championship Outlook

January 12, 2014


Odds provided by the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) SuperBook

Sunday, January 19

AFC Championship – (2) New England at (1) Denver (CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Broncos -6 ½, 55

Denver Home Record: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS
New England Road Record: 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Patriots rallied from a 24-0 deficit in Week 12 to defeat the Broncos 34-31 in a SNF matchup. New England closed as a one-point home underdog and the combined 65 points, 41 coming in the second-half, jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 54. Including this win, the Patriots have won and covered the last four matchups against the Broncos. Quarterback Tom Brady is 10-4 versus Peyton Manning all-time, 2-1 in the playoffs. They’ve met twice in the conference championship, with Brady winning in 2003 and Manning winning in 2006.

AFC Championship Notes

-- Under head coach Bill Belichick, New England has played in eight AFC Championship games, three of them played on the road.

-- The Patriots have gone 6-2 in those contests and that includes a 2-1 record on the road. The ‘under’ has produced a 5-3 mark.

-- Denver hasn’t been to the AFC Championship since the 2005-06 playoffs and it was doubled-up at Pittsburgh, 34-17.

-- Baltimore defeated New England 28-13 in last year’s AFC title game on the road. Prior to that outcome, the home team has won the six previous conference championships.

NFC Championship – (5) San Francisco at (1) Seattle (FOX, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Seahawks -3 ½, 41 ½
Seattle Home Record: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS
San Francisco Road Record: 8-2 SU, 7-1-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: San Francisco and Seattle have split their last four meetings with the home team winning each contest. During this span, the Seahawks have covered all four games, winning by 29 and 26 points at home while only losing by a combined nine points in the road setbacks. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series.

NFC Championship Notes

-- The 49ers will be playing in their straight NFC Championship, producing a 1-1 record the last two years. San Francisco defeated Atlanta 28-24 on the road in last year’s title game but lost to the N.Y. Giants in overtime (20-17) in the 2011-12 playoffs.

-- The Seahawks have only played in the NFC Championship once and they captured a 34-14 victory at home over Carolina in the 2005-06 title game.

-- The road team has won the last three NFC Championships.

-- The last six NFC title games have been decided by seven points or less.

Future Chalk

In early September, the LVH SuperBook had the Super Bowl future odds on this year’s remaining teams:

Denver 4/1
Seattle 5/1
San Francisco 7/1
New England 10/1

The only other teams to be in that were close to the above contenders were Green Bay (8/1) and Houston (10/1).

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Championship opening lines: Broncos, Seahawks favored


The matchups for the AFC and NFC Championships are set and we have two epic showdowns the NFL couldn't have scripted better. One matchup of two old school all-time great quarterbacks and one matchup of new school of young dynamic quarterbacks.

Here are the opening lines for the AFC and NFC Championship:

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-6.5, 54.5)

This is it. Brady vs. Manning XV. What the NFL would never admit they were desperately hoping for and it could be the final time these two greats meet in this tremendous rivalry. The game will be analyzed and over analyzed until next Sunday's game, but for now the Broncos open as 6.5-point home faves against the Patriots. New England did win the Week 12 matchup in overtime, 34-31 after trailing 24-0 early in the game.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 40)

The NFC Championship could be just as exciting when two of the games best young quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick face off. But more than that, these two teams are mirror images of one another. They both are run-first offenses with aggressive hard hitting defenses. Oh yeah and they don't like each other. The Seahawks opened at -3 versus the Niners, who split their the two meetings this season, each winning at home.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- 49ers 23, Panthers 10-- You only get so many chances to host playoff games; when you lose one by two TDs, it hinders your program.

-- Broncos 24, Chargers 17-- CBS gets what it wants (Brady-Manning); #1 seeds are now 4-14 vs spread (9-9 SU) in this round the last nine years.

-- John Daly turns 50 in April, 2016; he'll be a big help to the Senior Tour, won't he? He finished strong at Hawai'ian Open Sunday, a good sign.

-- Father of Colts' coach Chuck Pagano won three state titles in Colorado as a high school coach; brother John has lasted in San Diego thru regimes of three head coaches, so he must very sharp as well.

-- Louisville gave Georgia DC Todd Grantham $1M a year to leave Athens and join Bobby Petrino's staff; people in Georgia don't seem that upset.

-- Hawks-Nets are playing in England Thursday; why? Well I know they try to squeeze every dollar out of every corner of the globe-- guess I just answered my own question.


*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a winter weekend....

13) Early lines for next Sunday's conference title games:
Denver -6.5 over New England.....Seattle -3.5 over San Francisco, which will be playing on the road for the fourth week in a row.

12) Turns out when Jim Harbaugh got flagged for being on field after Vernon Davis' TD, he wasn't arguing that Davis was in bounds, he saw the clock kept running after the whistle, from 0;09 to 0:05, and if the play had been ruled incomplete, that would've cost the 49ers an extra play.

11) Washington 71, Colorado 54-- Loss is irrelevant for Buffs, who lost star guard Spencer Dinwiddie (knee) for the year, the one thing they couldn't have happen. Other than Askia Booker, Colorado is now VERY young.

10) There is a guy in Utah who has four wives, all at once. Is this guy the biggest glutton for punishment ever? He had to go to court to make it legal-- this poor bastard must never get the remote control.

9) Rockets-Wizards NBA game in Washington Saturday had two rain delays, because it waas raining out and the Wizards' arena has a leaky roof.

8) Eagles' WR DeSean Jackson had $250K worth of stuff stolen out of his home this weekend; it was supposedly in a safe. Apparently he needs a new safe, or he shouldn't tell people the combination, but now he has offered a $50,000 reward for the return of the stolen stuff, which includes jewelry and a gun. If someone stole my entire house, they wouldn't get $250,000.

7) Big Ten Network runs a commercial touting Northwestern as the Big Ten's school in Chicago, but the Wildcats don't have any kids from Chicago on their basketball team. Maybe Chris Collins should recruit some.

6) Of the last 26 Heisman Trophy winners, the only QB to win an NFL playoff game is??????.............Tim Tebow. Go figure.

5) So if Steve Alford didn't get the UCLA job, he'd still be at New Mexico, and so would his son, Bryce, who is a very promising freshman. But then Craig Neal would still be an assistant coach, and his son Cullen would be playing at St Mary's instead of New Mexico, so Gaels lost a solid recruit because UCLA hired a new coach. Life can be funny sometimes.

4) Pitt lost 6-6 soph Durand Johnson (ACL) for the year, which hurts their depth- he was averaging 8.8 ppg in 19.8 mpg.

3) Chicago Bears fired their DL coach and LB coach, but kept their DB coach and the defensive coordinator- their front seven must've been awful. .

2) Appaently Alex Rodriguez can go to spring training this year; he isn't officially suspended until the season starts, but what does Bomber brass do with him? He is still owed $61M from 2015-17, but he can't play this year, so do they send him to the minor league camp? Play him in the major league exhibition games? Interesting question that treads unchartered waters.

1) Funniest thing about this whole ARod debacle will be watching Bronx Bomber fans rip ARod and wish he was retired; well, Bombers have won one World Series since 2000, one in the last 13 years. Same as the Marlins.

In that postseason, ARod came to the plate 68 times, reached base 34 times, with six HRs, 18 RBI, 15 runs scored. In 15 games. So while you hope the door doesn't hit his butt on his way out, at least appreciate him for helping you win the last World Series Bronx might win for quite a while.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

San Francisco at Seattle
The 49ers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship carrying a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. San Francisco is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 19

Game 301-302: New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 141.602; Denver 141.678
Dunkel Line: Even; 59
Vegas Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (+4 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: San Francisco at Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.597; Seattle 142.834
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-120 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 4) at SEATTLE (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

New England at Denver, 3:00 ET
New England: 7-0 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Denver: 17-4 OVER after leading their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half

San Francisco at Seattle, 6:30 ET
San Francisco: 10-2 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Seattle: 11-3 ATS revenging a loss against opponent




NFL

Conference Championships

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing at home against New England

6:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Early odds to win next year's Super Bowl, in Glendale, AZ

6-1-- Seahawks/Broncos-- Favored to get to this Super Bowl, too.

7-1-- 49ers-- Been in NFC title game three years in a row.

12-1-- Patriots-- Maybe if Brady had better receivers.

15-1-- Packers/Saints-- New Orleans could use home playoff games.

18-1-- Falcons/Bengals-- Need bounceback years from their QBs.

20-1-- Panthers-- Higher odds than Atlanta? Interesting.


*****

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: AFC teams' playoff histories

What follows is a study of AFC teams’ playoff records during the Super Bowl era (1966-2013). Ravens’ record includes the Browns up until 1995. Record in parentheses is total playoff record over last 47 years.

Baltimore (19-20)—Were 1-7 in road playoff games as the Browns, are 8-5 in Baltimore. Defense driven, won Super Bowls with Dilfer/Flacco at QB.

Buffalo (11-15)—Played in four straight Super Bowls, lost all four; 9-2 in home playoff games, 3-12 in road/neutral games. Cincinnati (5-12)—Lost last six playoff games, with last win in ’89. 0-8 all-time away from home in playoffs.

Cleveland (0-1) – New Browns’ greatest moment was 36-33 loss at Pittsburgh in ’02, their only playoff game; they keep firing coaches every year, it’ll be their only playoff game ever.

Denver (20-17)—14-4 in Mile High playoff games; 8-1 in first nine, 6-3 in last nine. Win this week at home and they go to their 7th Super Bowl (2-4).

Houston (2-2)—Home side won all four of their playoff games (2-0 at home, 0-2 on road). Now we’ll see what Bill O’Brien can do.

Indianapolis (18-20)—Took Manning few years to win his playoff game, so be patient with Luck; Colts are 2-6 in playoff games since beating Bears in Super Bowl seven years ago.

Jacksonville (5-6)—Tom Coughlin’s greatest work; played in AFC title game in second season, then hosted same game three years later, but lost both. 33-14 home loss to Titans in ’99 has to especially sting.

Kansas City (7-15)—Total of only seven playoff wins despite playing in two of first four Super Bowls. Are 2-5 in home playoff games; haven’t won in postseason in 20 years, losing last seven playoff games.

Miami (20-19)—Outscored 74-12 in last three playoff games; last playoff win was in ’01. 3-11 overall in playoff road games.

New England (25-16)—Sunday will be their first road playoff game in seven years, since 38-34 loss at Indy. Won three Super Bowls, none since Spygate.

NJ Jets (13-13)—Only seven of 26 games were played at home, with last one 41-0 win over Colts in ’02. Their win in Super Bowl III paved way for AFL-NFL merger.

Oakland (26-18)—Used to have a great history, now haven’t been in playoffs since 2002. Home teams are 31-8 SU in their non-Super Bowl playoff games- their last road playoff win was at San Diego. In 1980.

Pittsburgh (33-20)—9-3 in last 12 playoff games, have six Super Bowl titles, only three head coaches since 1969. Easy to forget that Neil O’Donnell once started a Super Bowl for them.

San Diego (10-13)—One of only two teams (Chiefs 2-7) with losing records in home playoff games during this era. Chargers are 7-6 in games decided by 7 or less points, 3-7 in games decided by more than seven.

Tennessee (12-18)—Best Oiler teams ran up against great Steel Curtain Steeler teams. Haven’t been to playoffs since ’08, haven’t won game there since ’03. Only 5-5 in home playoff games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Seahawks bettors search for a FG spread

Spread to bet now

New England Patriots (+4.5) at Denver Broncos

The Patriots were only 8-8 ATS this season, but in their four SU losses (all on the road), there were no blowouts. They got edged by a touchdown in Cincinnati, were taken down by four points twice (Miami, Carolina) and got beat by the Jets in overtime by a field goal. The Pats also got the raw end of calls at New York and Carolina, so they could have easily been 6-2 away from Gillette.

New England just doesn’t get blown out on the road, so it’s worth taking a long look at grabbing the points in what is shaping up as a field-goal game in Colorado. The Patriots are running the ball more than they ever have in the Brady-Belichick Era, and Belichick doesn’t mind playing in tight games in Denver.


Spread to wait on

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Some books have this at three with a bigger vig bite, which indicates that the oddsmakers aren’t all that sure about the extra half a point. It’s been four month since the Niners - disorganized at the time - went in to Seattle and got spanked. Since then San Francisco has figured things out, and playing on the road doesn’t seem to be all that much of an issue.

The concern is that the Niners might be a little worn down after winning two consecutive road elimination games (Green Bay, Carolina), and now have to win in a tough environment. Might be a good idea to get a grip on how fresh the Niners seem at the end of the week before wagering. Seahawks boosters can use that time to shop for a 3-point line with normal -110 vig.


Total to watch

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (39)

This is the lowest posted number in the playoffs - and with good reason. Six consecutive Seattle games have gone Under, and both Niners playoff games (and seven of the last 10) haven’t reached the Over. Both of these teams have crushed the Under, but the adjustment has been made and it looks like it’s time for bettors to adjust as well.

When the teams met way back in September, San Francisco turned over the ball to Seattle five times (two fumbles, three INTs). That’s not likely going to happen again. With Colin Kaepernick confident, the Niners should move the ball.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Championship Sunday betting trends and stats

NFL’s version of the Final Four kicks off this Sunday in the conference championship games, where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets in 15 of 46 title games since the 1990 season - the most recent being the Baltimore Ravens’ victory over New England at Foxboro last year, and the New York Giants’ win at San Francisco two years ago, with both teams going on to capture the coveted Super Bowl.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the championship games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

Note: all results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.

What a rush

Running the football is tantamount to success in the NFL, especially in the playoffs.

It’s no coincidence that since the Giants’ 21-17 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI that 18 of the last 20 straight-up playoff winners have rushed the ball for 100 or more yards, including all eight winners this season.

Teams who have managed to gain 110 or more rushing yards in a conference championship game have gone 19-9 SU and 20-8 ATS, including 9-1 ATS as dogs of four or more points.

While all four of this week’s combatants average more than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, only Denver and San Francisco surrender less than 100 yards on the ground per contest.

The Patriots allow the most yards on the ground, at 130 YPG.


Situationally speaking

The linemakers have done a nice job overall during this round, with favorites checking in at 26-22 ATS and home teams 22-26 ATS since 1990.

Teams off a road win (San Francisco) are 15-11 ATS, while teams off a win but no cover are 12-8 ATS, including 8-3 ATS when riding a pair of wins.

That’s music to the ears of Denver and Seattle backers.


Gravity alert

While high-scoring games are the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round off a high-scoring effort in their last game tend to come back to earth harder than a sky diver with a defective chute.

Half of the 34 teams in this round who put 34 or more points on the scoreboard in a divisional round victory fell short of the Super Bowl, going 17-17 SU and 12-22 ATS.

Worse, if these same teams are taking on an .800 or greater foe they fall to 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in title games.

That puts New England on hard ground this Sunday.


Been there done that

Three of the four head coaches have had the luxury of coaching team in conference championship games – namely Bill Belichick, Jon Fox and Jim Harbaugh.

New England’s Belichick brings a 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS record (0-4 ATS last four) with the Patriots in AFC Championship Games into this week’s fray. Furthermore, “The Hoodie” is 0-4 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points his previous playoff contest.

Meanwhile, Fox has made two NFC Championship Game appearances with Carolina, splitting out 1-1 SU and ATS – both as an underdog.

San Francisco returns to the NFC Championship Game for the third straight year under Jim Harbaugh. The Niners are 1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS in these games under his lead.

Seattle’s Pete Carroll is a conference championship game virgin.


Over there

Points aplenty have forced the linemakers to raise the Over/Under totals bar.

It’s what happens when there have been 29 Overs, 19 Unders and 1 Push in conference championship games.

Surprisingly, the higher the total them more Overs there have been as games with a posted total set at 46 or more points going 10-5 O/U.


Stat of the Week

The last No. 1 seed from the NFC to win a Super Bowl game was the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

[StarDust Bum]

Title Game Breakdowns

January 13, 2014


There are only four teams left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy, and today at VegasInsider.com, we're breaking down the two games remaining with some great trends to remember for each of the games.

#5 San Francisco 49ers vs. #1 Seattle Seahawks
Opening Line: Seattle -3.5 (40)

The Seahawks and the 49ers split the first two games of the season, and the home team has won four straight and nine out of 10 in this series. Seattle has covered three straight games, including beating the number by a hook in a 19-17 loss at Candlestick Park in Week 14. This isn't a series for the faint of heart. These two teams are going to run the ball and run it a ton, and the team which can handle its business at the line of scrimmage the best is the one that will ultimately end up winning this game.

San Francisco has gone 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams that possess winning home records, and it is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games overall. The team is 37-18-1 ATS over the course of the last almost three complete seasons, and it is 6-3 ATS in its last nine playoff games. The Seahawks have covered four straight home games against teams with winning road records, and the team is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with winning records overall. The Seahawks have covered seven of their last 10 against NFC West teams and six of their last eight games overall.

The 'under' is 7-3 in San Fran's last 10 games overall and it's 5-1 the L/6 times the Niners hit the playoff road. The 'under' has also cashed in six straight Seattle games, but the Seahawks have played to high scorers in six of their L/8 postseason games.

#2 New England Patriots vs. #1 Denver Broncos
Opening Line: Denver -6.5 (54.5)

The Patriots were down 24-0 to the Broncos when these two teams met at Gillette Stadium back in Week 12, but they came storming back to win 34-31 in overtime behind the greatness known as Tom Brady.

This is the fourth meeting between Brady and Peyton Manning in the playoffs in their illustrious careers. The home team has gone 3-0 SU and ATS in the previous three outings, and the team that won that do-or-die match-up also went on to win the Super Bowl.

This edition of the Patriots though, are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff games and 1-5 ATS in their last six played on the road. These Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall, though one of those defeats did come at the hands of this exact Patriots squad on the road. New England has failed to cover four straight conference title games as well.

The 'over' is 39-17 in New England's last 56 games against AFC foes, and it is 50-23 in its last 73 played games (68.5%). The 'over' is also 7-2 in the Pats' last nine playoff games. Denver though, has played four straight games 'under' the 'total' over the course of the last month, but the 'over' is 24-6 in the team's last 30 games against teams with winning records.