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NFL Week 6 Preview: Broncos at Chargers

DENVER BRONCOS (2-3)

at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (3-2)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:40 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -1, Total: 49½

San Diego looks to retain its series dominance over a Denver team that has lost four straight road games.

The Chargers are 9-3 SU (8-3-1 ATS) in the past 12 meetings with the Broncos. But Denver has won two of three at San Diego, including last November when the Tim Tebow-led Broncos tripped up the Bolts, 16-13. The Chargers once again have question marks, especially in pass protection. LT Jared Gaither is dealing with back and groin injuries and could barely move by the end of last game, which is a big a problem as they get set to face pass-rushing stud LBs Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. The Chargers have given Peyton Manning fits during the Norv Turner years. With the Colts, Manning lost four of five to Turner’s Chargers, SU and ATS, while posting 10 TD and 13 INT.

Which AFC West team will come out on top Monday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning has been outstanding in his past three games, throwing for 330+ yards and multiple touchdowns in each contest without throwing a single interception. Four different Broncos receivers have scored at least two touchdowns, including Demaryius Thomas who has caught 14 passes for 283 yards in the past two games. He practiced on a limited basis Thursday due to a hip injury, but should be available to start on Monday. WR Eric Decker has scored in each of the past two games, but his receiving yards have plummeted in the past two weeks, going from 136 to 79 to 21 last Sunday. Denver's passing game should be just fine, but there are questions surrounding RB Willis McGahee who had a key dropped pass and lost fumble in last week's loss. He also gained a mere 51 yards on 14 carries (3.6 YPC). Turnovers have killed the Broncos on the road this year, as they have a minus-6 turnover rate with seven giveaways and just one takeaway in the two contests. Denver's pass defense has been strong (215 YPG, 11th in NFL), but the rushing defense has surrendered 120 YPG (21st in league), including a whopping 251 yards to New England last week.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers has played very well in this series since 2006, passing for 246 yards per game, 20 TD and just 6 INT in these 12 contests. He's also coming off a strong outing in New Orleans, completing 27-of-42 passes for 354 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. RB Ryan Mathews has been bothered by an ankle injury, but he looked great against the Saints last week with 80 rushing yards on 6.7 YPC plus six catches for 59 more yards. He'll be expected to carry a huge workload, considering he has rushed for at least 120 yards in each of the past three meetings with Denver, totaling 413 yards from scrimmage (138 YPG) and 3 TD. In terms of the defensive run-stop unit, San Diego has not allowed 120 rushing yards once this season, including holding New Orleans to 53 yards on 21 carries last week. The passing defense has been a bit suspect though, allowing 850 passing yards (283 YPG) in the past three games.

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Monday, October 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Denver - 8:30 PM ET San Diego -1 500

San Diego - Over 47.5 500

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Close Calls - Week 6

October 16, 2012

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the Week 6 NFL games. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows. Get the final quarter details in this weekly column.

Tennessee Titans (+6½) 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 23 (43): The Titans led 16-13 entering the fourth quarter and the game looked on pace to stay ‘under’ as well. Pittsburgh gave the favorite backers some hope as they put up 10 quick points to lead 23-16 with about eight minutes to go, taking advantage of favorable field position after an interception for the field goal. Tennessee rebounded with an 80-yard drive to tie the game with just over four minutes remaining and that score also clinched the 'over.' Pittsburgh went 53 yards on its final possession, but kicker Shaun Suisham missed a 54-yard attempt and the Titans did enough in the final minute to avoid overtime by hitting a 40-yard field goal from Rob Bironas.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) 31, Dallas Cowboys 29 (45): Dallas dominated the yardage in this game, but the Ravens led 24-13 late in the third quarter before Dallas got within four with a Dez Bryant touchdown, sitting just short of the underdog spread. Dallas added a field goal to get within one, but Baltimore answered with a long scoring drive to lead 31-23 with less than five minutes to go in the game. Surviving a few costly penalties and converting two fourth downs, Dallas would wind up in the end zone with just 32 seconds left and within two points after a failed conversion attempt. Incredibly, Dallas recovered the expected onside kick and then got a big pass interference penalty on first down. There were clock management issues, but the Cowboys did get a 51-yard kick off with a chance to win with a few seconds left. That attempt failed, but Dallas did enough to steal the cover late in this game.

Detroit Lions (+3½) 26, Philadelphia Eagles 23 (47½): The Eagles were in control with a 16-6 lead after a third straight Alex Henery field goal early in the fourth quarter, but Detroit backed up its reputation as a fourth quarter team. The Lions got within three points, but Philadelphia seemingly had the game back in hand by connecting on a 70-yard pass play with just over five minutes to go. Detroit proved resilient, getting a touchdown with just over three minutes to go and then forcing a Philadelphia punt. The Lions drove down the field with relative ease in the final minutes and had a few shots at the end zone before settling for overtime on a very short field goal. The Eagles got the ball first, but went backwards 21 yards on three plays and the Lions easily moved into field goal position for the win. Those on the ‘under’ could only hope for a miracle tie, as overtime essentially sealed the ‘over’.

Miami Dolphins (-5) 17, St. Louis Rams 14 (38): The Rams outgained the Dolphins, 462-192, but penalties kept costing St. Louis scoring chances and rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein missed two relatively easy field goals despite strong early season results until this game. Taking advantage of the miscues, Miami actually led 17-6 going into the fourth quarter, but the Rams put together a long scoring drive early in the final frame. The touchdown made the score, 17-12 and the Rams went for two in a critical play for those involved on the spread that floated between -3½ and -5 throughout the week. The conversion was good and Miami did its best to burn clock on the next possession, but had to punt near midfield. The Rams moved the ball with some success in the final minute, but Sam Bradford took a sack to leave four seconds left for a long shot 66-yard attempt.

Seattle Seahawks (+4) 24, New England Patriots 23 (43): New England led 20-10 going into the fourth quarter and a third consecutive Stephen Gostkowski short field goal made it 23-10 with about nine minutes to in the game. Seattle and Russell Wilson proved they had more late game magic, cutting the deficit to six with a touchdown two minutes later and the defense forced two consecutive New England punts late in the game to get another chance. With just over a minute to go, Wilson hit Sidney Rice on a 46-yard bomb to give the Seahawks the lead as Tom Brady and the Patriots could not get a first down to extend the game against the Seattle defense. The late touchdown also changed the result for those on the total.

Denver Broncos (PK) 35, San Diego Chargers 24 (48): Peyton Manning added another chapter to his Monday night resume as San Diego dominated early with a 24-0 halftime lead. The Broncos had a strong drive to open the second half and then got the break they needed to get some momentum, capitalizing on a Philip Rivers fumble for a 65-yard touchdown. San Diego still led by 10 entering the fourth quarter, but that lead was erased with more Rivers turnovers and the Broncos took advantage of short fields for two more scores, taking the lead for the first time with just over nine minutes to go. There was plenty of time left and San Diego had opportunities, but the momentum completely had shifted and it was not a surprise when Rivers threw another interception that was returned for a touchdown to seal the game with just over two minutes to go.

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Overtime Winners

October 17, 2012

Momentum is a funny notion in sports as fans think that teams coming off a win will perform well again the next game. What about if the previous contest went to overtime? Looking back through the first six weeks of this NFL season, backing clubs that pulled off an overtime victory aren't exactly the best bet the following week.

Six games have gone past regulation this season, as the Bills are the most recent team to win in overtime, rallying past the Cardinals in Week 6. Buffalo returns home to battle Tennessee this Sunday, looking for a third victory in the favorite role this season. The Titans are coming off a last-second triumph over the Steelers as a home underdog, as Tennessee tries to win its first road game in four tries.

This season, the Vikings, Chiefs, Jets, Titans, and Cardinals all failed to cover and lost outright after capturing an overtime win. We'll look at each case one by one, starting with Minnesota, who beat Jacksonville in the season opener, while actually having to stop the Jags' offense on fourth down to knock them off in OT. The Vikings traveled to Indianapolis the following week and closed as three-point road favorites, but the Colts picked up a 23-20 win.

In Week 3, three teams went the extra mile for a win, including the first of the season for Kansas City and Tennessee. The Chiefs rallied from a 24-6 deficit at New Orleans to shock the Saints, 27-24 as nine-point underdogs. Romeo Crennel's team went home and was immediately blasted by the Chargers, 37-20 as short underdogs. The Titans held off the Lions in a wild 44-41 affair in Nashville, but couldn't follow up big play after big play in Houston the next week. The Texans crushed the Titans as 13-point favorites, 38-14, as Tennessee was never really in the game, while quarterback Jake Locker got knocked out with a shoulder injury.

The Jets couldn't build momentum off an overtime victory at Miami, as New York's anemic offense was exposed in a 34-0 home defeat to San Francisco. There seems to be barely any value in backing these overtime winners even as an underdog, as the Jets, Chiefs, and Titans all were receiving points (granted against significantly better competition), but San Diego and San Francisco were also off of double-digit losses.

The Cardinals put together a putrid performance in a Week 5 defeat as short road favorites at St. Louis, mustering just a field goal in a 17-3 defeat. Arizona had pulled off an overtime victory over Miami the previous week, but Ken Whisenhunt's club is now 0-3 ATS in the 'chalk' role.

Dating back to last season, teams off an overtime victory playing without a bye week finished 4-7 ATS. Arizona was responsible for two of those covers, including one as a 13 ½-point underdog at Philadelphia in an outright win. In Tim Tebow's first start for the Broncos at Miami, Denver pulled off an improbable comeback for an 18-15 overtime shocker. The next week, the Broncos were steamrolled as three-point home underdogs against the Lions, 45-10.

Is this merely a coincidence or is this turning into a trend? Twelve of the last 16 overtime winners not off a bye have failed to cover the following week since the start of 2011, so you be the judge heading into Thursday and moving forward this season.

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Tech Trends - Week 7

October 17, 2012

College Football Trends

Thursday, Oct. 18 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Harbaugh 10-2-1 vs. line at home since LY, and 16-7-1 vs. spread overall. But Pete Carroll 15-5 vs. spread last 20 on board and 8-2 last 10 against points on road. Seattle "under" 5-1 this season. "Under" and slight to Seahawks, based on recent "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Oct. 21 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Titans no covers last five on road (last road cover Dec. 4, 2011 at Buffalo). Chan only 5-10 last 15 on board since mid 2011, but 2-0 as favorite TY). Chan also "over" 6-2 last 8 since late LY. Bills and "over," based on team and Chan "totals" trends.

Vikes "under" 5-2 last 7 since late 2011. Cards "under" 8-2 last 10 away. Whisenhunt 8-2 last 10 as dog. "Under" and slight to Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.

Browns 5-1-1 vs. spread last 7 on road. Slight to Browns, based on team trends.

Kubiak 18-6 vs. spread last 24 on board since late 2010 (prior to GB). Ravens no covers last 4 TY and 4-8 vs. spread last 12 since late 2011. Texans, based on recent trends.

The Fisher Rams are 5-1 vs. line and 3-0 vs. spread at home this season. Rams also "under" 27-14 last 40 since late 2009. Rams and "under,", based on team and "totals" trends.

Note that underdog team is 5-0 in Carolina games TY (Panthers 0-3 as chalk but 2-0 as dog). Dallas 7-16-1 last 24 on board. Cowboys also "under" 14-8-1 since late 2010. Slight to Panthers, if dog, and "under" based on team and "totals" trends.
Skins beat G-Men twice LY and Shan has covered last three vs. Coughlin since late 2010. Shan 6-3 vs. line last 9 as dog as well. Slight to Skins, based on recent Shan trends.

Seven straight "unders" in series, though Saints "over" 16-8 overall since late in 2010 season. Saints now with two covers in a row after opening with three straight Ls. Schiano 4-1 vs. line for Bucs. Slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 21 - All games to start at 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Belichick won and covered both vs. Rex LY after 2010 playoff loss. "Overs" last five in series, Pats "over" 32-12 since late '09. "Over" and Patriots, based on 'totals" and team trends.

Note that road team has covered in first five Jag games (Jags 2-0 away, 0-3 at home vs. number). Raiders 1-4 last five as chalk. Raiders also "over" last five at Coliseum. Jags and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 21 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Steel road woes continue after Titans loss, now 0-3 SU and vs. line away TY, and 2-11 against points last 13 away from Heinz Field. Steel also "over" 3-0 away Tomlin has won and covered last four vs. Marvin Lewis since 2010. Cincy only 1-5-1 last 7 at home and "over" 14-8-1 since 2011. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Oct. 22 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Even with Eagles win, Lions only 4-13 vs. line last 17 on board since mid 2011. Lions also "over" 26-13-2 overall since late 2009. Bears 4-1 vs. line TY including 2-0 at Soldier Field, and 9-1 vs. spread last ten games started by Jay Cutler! "Over" and Bears, based on team trends.

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Seahawks at 49ers

October 17, 2012

For several years, the NFC West has been considered one of the weakest division in the NFL. In 2012, that’s no longer the case.

There’s a three-way tie for first place in the loop with Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona sporting 4-2 records, while St. Louis is just one game back with a 3-3 ledger.

On Thursday at Candlestick Park, the 49ers will take on the Seahawks as seven-point home favorites at most betting shops. As of Wednesday afternoon, the total was 37 ½ for ‘over/under’ wagers. Gamblers can take Seattle (4-2 straight up, against the spread) on the money line for a plus-260 return (risk $100 to win $260).

Pete Carroll’s team pulled out another comeback win over an elite team at home last week. Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson threw a pair of touchdown passes in the final seven minutes to lead the Seahawks to a 24-23 victory over New England as 3 ½-point home underdogs.

Wilson found Braylon Edwards for a 10-yard scoring strike to cut the deficit to 23-17 midway through the final stanza. Then with 1:18 remaining, Wilson hit Sidney Rice with a perfectly-thrown post pattern for a 46-yard touchdown pass with 77 ticks left.

Wilson completed 16-of-27 passes for 293 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. For the season, the Wisconsin product has connected on 62.5 percent of his throws for 1,108 yards with an 8/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Marshawn Lynch leads the Seahawks in rushing with 549 yards and two TDs, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.

San Francisco (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) will be looking to bounce back from its worst performance of the season, a 26-3 loss against the Giants as a seven-point home favorite. Alex Smith threw three interceptions and may have been bothered by the injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand suffered the previous week.

The 49ers lead the NFL in rushing with an average of 176.5 yards per game, but the G-Men held them to just 70 yards on the ground.

The loss dropped Jim Harbaugh’s team to 2-1 both SU and ATS at home.

Smith has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 1,287 yards with an 8/4 TD-INT ratio. Vernon Davis has 23 catches for 340 yards and four TDs. Frank Gore leads the 49ers in rushing with 468 yards and four TDs, averaging 5.3 YPC.

San Francisco leads the NFL in total defense and is third in scoring defense, surrendering only 15.7 points per game. Seattle is fourth in total defense and second in scoring defense, allowing just 15.5 PPG.

Seattle has a 1-2 record both SU and ATS on the road this year. As a road underdog during Carroll’s three-year tenure, the Seahawks own a 7-7-2 spread record.

The 49ers were 9-0 ATS as home favorites on Harbaugh’s watch until last week’s outright loss and non-cover against the G-Men.

San Francisco OT Joe Staley (concussion) and back-up RB Brandon Jacobs (knee) are ‘questionable,’ while Seattle has a pair of defensive tackles (Jaye Howard and Clinton McDonald) that are question marks. Staley was on the practice field Tuesday but wore a non-contact jersey.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for Seattle, 3-0 in its road assignments. The ‘under’ is 3-2-1 overall for San Francisco, 1-1-1 in its home games.

San Francisco has won three in a row over Seattle both SU and ATS, including a 33-17 home win and a 19-17 triumph on the road last year. The ‘over’ is 2-1-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings.

The NFL Network will provide television coverage at 8:25 p.m. Eastern. The weather forecast calls for fair skies with temperatures in the 60s and winds of 10-15 miles per hour.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--San Francisco WR Randy Moss has made 11 receptions for 174 yards and one TD this year.

--Arizona QB Kevin Kolb is ‘out’ indefinitely with a sprained SC joint and cartilage damage to his ribs. The veteran signal caller led the Cardinals to a 4-0 start, but he has been sacked 22 times in the last three games. Kolb, who has an 8/3 TD-INT ratio, is expected to miss at least 2-3 games. John Skelton, who won the starting job in training camp only to suffer a sprained ankle in the season opener, will replace Kolb on Sunday at Minnesota. Skelton completed only 2-of-10 passes for 45 yards after replacing Kolb in last week’s 19-16 loss to Buffalo. He threw a costly interception in overtime that led to the Bills’ game-winning field goal.

--Atlanta is the NFL’s only undefeated team left after winning a 23-20 decision over Oakland thanks to Matt Bryant’s 55-yard field goal on the next-to-last play of the game. The Falcons, who are now 29-4 in 33 home games started by QB Matt Ryan, have an open date this week.

--There are four home underdogs on the Week 7 card. They are the Rams (+5.5 vs. Green Bay), Buccaneers (+3 vs. New Orleans), Panthers (+2 vs. Dallas) and Bengals (+2.5 vs. Pittsburgh).

--Highest total on the board: 50 for the Redskins at Giants.

--St. Louis owns the NFL’s best spread record at 5-1. The Bears and Bucs are both 4-1 versus the number.

--Detroit and Pittsburgh have the NFL’s worst spread records at 1-4.

--The ‘over’ is an NFL best 5-1 for the Redskins.

--The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 5-1 for both the Seahawks and Cardinals.

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NFL Week 7 Preview: Seahawks at 49ers

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-2)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-2)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -7, Total: 37.5

First place is on the line in the NFC West when Seattle visits San Francisco on Thursday night.

The Niners have a chance to reassert their dominance over the division. They’ve won 10 in a row SU at home versus division opponents (9-1 ATS), outscoring opponents 82-24 in three games under Jim Harbaugh a year ago. Both of these defenses have been outstanding early, though the red-hot 49ers offense was stumped by the Giants last week (as many points as interceptions: three). The Seahawks were held under 300 yards of offense in both meetings with San Francisco last year.

Can the Seahawks hang with the 49ers on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson is coming off a career day in leading his team back from a 13-point, fourth-quarter deficit to beat New England last week. He threw for 293 yards and 3 TD in the 24-23 win. He has struggled on the road in his rookie season though, posting a 60.3 passer rating (6.4 YPA, 2 TD, 6 INT). Despite Wilson's heroics last week, RB Marshawn Lynch was bottled up for a season-low 41 yards on 15 carries (2.7 YPC). Although San Francisco's run defense is tough (92 YPG allowed, 9th in NFL), it did just allow the Giants to gain 149 yards on the ground last Sunday. Using a heavy dose of Lynch is likely the game plan on Thursday. That will help keep Seattle turnovers in check (8 in past three games), as Wilson won't be forced to throw very much against the 49ers second-ranked pass defense (183 YPG).

Although San Francisco has the best rushing offense in the NFL (177 YPG), it won't be easy to gain yards against a Seattle team that ranks second in the league in rushing defense (70 YPG). Frank Gore has a pair of 200-yard rushing games in his career against the Seahawks, but has been held to just 51 rushing YPG and 2.9 YPC in his past four meetings with his NFC West foe. 49ers QB Alex Smith appeared to be quite bothered by the sprained the middle finger on his throwing hand last week, tossing three interceptions in a game for the first time since December 2009, a span of 37 games. However, since 2006, Smith has been interception-free in eight of nine meetings with Seattle. He'll once again lean on his favorite targets, WR Michael Crabtree (team-high 44 targets and 30 catches) and TE Vernon Davis (team-best 340 receiving yards, 4 TD).

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NFL underdogs off to best start in 15 years

With the way NFL underdogs are cashing in, football bettors are like Trick-or-Treaters at the oddsmakers’ door, opening their bags for as many points as books will give them.

Teams getting the points have posted a profitable 57-32-2 mark against the spread this season, covering at an unreal 64 percent. That figure was helped out by a Week 6 schedule in which underdogs went 12-2 ATS. The 57-32-2 ATS record by NFL underdogs so far is the best mark for pups through the first six weeks of the season over at the past 15 years, which is as far back as our numbers go.

The previous best six-week record for NFL underdogs during that span was a 49-25-7 ATS mark (60.49 percent) in 1999. Underdogs also went a profitable 49-36-2 ATS (56.32 percent) through the first six weeks in 2010.

These results are music to the sportbooks’ ear. The majority of public bettors play the favorites on a week-to-week basis, fattening the oddsmakers’ pockets with every close game and outright upset.

"Everything is going good if you're on this side of the counter," Jimmy Vaccaro, director of public relations for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. "The 'dogs are showing, and the books are doing very well."

According to some books, poor play from the league’s top teams – like the Steelers, Packers, and Eagles (combined 4-12-1 ATS) – is contributing to that trend. Teams like the Rams (5-1 ATS), Buccaneers (4-1 ATS), and Seahawks (4-2 ATS) have made a mint for bettors looking for the live dog.

“The league has been leaning toward parity for years now,” Aaron Kessler, sportsbook supervisor at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas, told Covers. “There’s really not much difference between the top teams and the bottom teams. Just look at the AFC East, you have four teams tied for first and last place.”

The appeal of betting the underdog is catching on both in Nevada and online. Kessler says more public bettors are sizing up the underdogs each week, especially with all the recent media attention and stories on the trend. At online sportsbook, bet365.com, they estimate that there has actually been more money wagered on the underdogs than the favorites so far this season.

“I’m happy to see that at least more parity in the league is evident,” Aron Black, of bets365.com, told Covers. “Teams who traditionally would not be expected to win are getting wins. And teams who were expected to steamroll have not. It makes for great booking.”

But in sports betting, like in life, the universe tends to balance itself out. In 1999, when underdogs covered at better than a 60 percent clip through the first six weeks, teams getting the points eventually finished 119-102-11 ATS (51 percent). And in 2010, when pups got off to a 49-36-2 ATS start heading into Week 7, underdogs finished the season 127-121-5 ATS (50.19 percent).

“It can only last so long,” says Kessler. “Eventually, favorites are going to start covering again. I’m going to start looking for value with the favorites.”

Black also expects the results to level out, but doesn’t see this trend going away overnight.

“I don’t think it will be for a good few weeks yet," he says. "With so many teams in the running and only a few that you can look at as out of contention at this stage, there will be many more surprises or at least considered surprise results to come."

“Long may the surprises continue, I say, and keep us all guessing from one week to the next.”

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...

Will someone please check the pulse of the Dallas Cowboys?

There’s no way they’re still alive and kicking after having their hearts ripped out of their chests multiple times during Sunday’s 31-29 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

It was like that scene in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, when Mola Ram rips out that guy’s ticker and lights it on fire – except on repeat with the volume cranked all the way to 11.

Dallas took bettors on a roller-coaster ride in Week 6, covering as a 3-point road underdog thanks to a last-minute drive that brought the Cowboys to within two points. They nearly won the game outright after a successful onside kick, but poor clock management by the Dallas sideline led to a missed field goal as time ticked down.

It was a tough loss to swallow and one the Cowboys need to shake off before traveling to Carolina to face the Panthers as 1-point road favorites in Week 7. And it’s that spread that has America’s Team leading off our “Football lines that make you go hmmm…” for the second straight week.

This spread opened as high as -2.5 in favor of Dallas but is sitting -1 at plenty of online books. Breaking the odds down by betting basics, are we to believe that 1-4 Carolina – which has lost three straight before a bye in Week 6 – is just four points worse than 5-1 Baltimore?

While there are plenty of flaws with that logic, it’s safe to say the Panthers are just where they need to be in terms of the spread. Carolina may have only one win to its name (35-27 over New Orleans) but it’s played an uphill schedule, featuring an underrated Buccaneers team, the Saints, Giants, Falcons and Seahawks.

Dallas limps into Sunday, with starting running back Demarco Murray out with a sprained foot after such a dominant first half versus the Ravens. The Cowboys, normally a pass-heavy team, broke character and took to the ground, finishing the day with 227 yards rushing.

Without Murray, Dallas is left to wonder what kind of team it really is heading into Week 7. And, by the looks of the Cowboys’ recent spreads, oddsmakers are also having a tough time determining just what Big D is all about.

Here are some other spreads making football bettors go “hmmm…” heading into the weekend:

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+1, 46)

In the same vein as the Dallas-Carolina line, oddsmakers have set the Steelers as 1-point faves on the road in Week 7.

Pittsburgh is coming off a shocking loss to Tennessee, dragging behind it a handful of scrapes and bruises as well as an unflattering 2-3 record – all of those losses coming away from home.

More importantly, the Steelers have managed to cover in only one game this season and have been favorites in four of those five contests.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, has lost two in a row SU and ATS after a strong start including last weekend’s 34-24 defeat at the hands of state rival Cleveland as a 1-point road chalk.

Pittsburgh has dominated this AFC North grudge match, in terms of the pointspread, going 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these teams and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 travels to Paul Brown Stadium.

NCAAF

Cincinnati Bearcats at Toledo Rockets (+7, 64.5)

Regardless of the overall strength of the conference, the Big East has three teams ranked in the Top 25 this week, one of them being the No. 18 Bearcats who make the drive north to Toledo as touchdown favorites Saturday.

Cincinnati’s unblemished 5-0 SU record is packed with as much sweet cake and frosting as a Twinkie, picking up “W’s” against Pitt, FCS Delaware State, Virginia Tech, Miami (Ohio) and FCS Fordham. Those three FBS foes have a combined 9-11 SU mark so far this year.

The Rockets are quietly climbing the power ratings and could be undefeated themselves if not for an overtime loss to Arizona in Week 1. Toledo has flexed its offensive muscle in recent weeks, scoring a total of 102 points in its last two outings.

This Toledo program is no pushover and has thrived versus big-name BCS opponents, putting the fear of God into the likes of Ohio State, Arizona and Michigan in past years.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa Hawkeyes (-3, 42.5)

The Jerry Sandusky sentencing is stealing headlines in State College, keeping much of the focus away from a very good PSU football team.

The Nittany Lions, discarded after a pressure-filled 0-2 start, have risen from the ashes to win four in a row. Not only has Penn State been victorious in those games but it’s also riding a 5-0 ATS streak into Saturday’s tilt in Iowa City.

The Hawkeyes upset an overrated Michigan State squad in overtime last Saturday and have collected four wins against much weaker opposition. However, books are giving the field goal to the Nittany Lions, who had a bye week to prepare for Iowa, which will undoubtedly be suffering from a bit of a hangover.

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Top 5 NFL Trends



WAS
NYG

Under is 6-0 in NYG last 6 games following a S.U. win.



WAS
NYG

Under is 5-0 in NYG last 5 games following a ATS win.



WAS
NYG

NYG are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.



WAS
NYG

Over is 5-0 in WAS last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.



WAS
NYG

Under is 4-0 in NYG last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Seahawks (4-2) @ 49ers (4-2)—No love lost between HCs since they were Pac-10 rivals; Harbaugh’s Stanford team once beat Carroll’s USC squad as 41-point underdogs, but he is favored here, coming off 26-3 loss to Giants, his first non-cover (10-1) as home favorite with 49ers, whose four wins are all by 8+ points. Underdog is 6-0 vs spread in Seattle games this year, with five of six games decided by 6 or less points; Hawks were favored in two of three road games- they’ve scored only 15 ppg in three road tilts (1-2, with losses by 4-6 points). 49ers are 16-4-2 vs spread in game following their last 22 losses. Two SF losses came in games where they were minus in turnovers; they were -3 last week, are +2 for years, +30 in 22 regular season games under Harbaugh. Seattle has turned ball over eight times (-4) in three road games. Keep in mind NFC underdogs are 32-5 vs spread this year, 4-1 as divisional road dogs.

Titans (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)—Buffalo lost its last 12 pre-bye games (3-8-1 vs spread, 1-4 last five when favored); they’ve lost seven of last eight games with Titans, including last four in row by average (23-17 LY), with average total in those four, 50.3. Tennessee has extra prep time after upsetting Steelers last Thursday, but teams are 3-7 this year coming off Wed/Thurs games- since start of ’10, Titans are 5-10 vs spread in game following a win. Buffalo allowed 17-14-16 points in its wins, 48-52-45 in losses; favorites covered five of their six games this year (Bills 2-0 as favorite in ’12, 7-11-1 as home favorites since ‘08). Tennessee won three of last four visits here, where fans will be fired up with all four AFC East teams tied for first at 3-3. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-3 vs spread, 3-2 at home; AFC South non-divisional road dogs are 1-4. Three of last four Titan games, four of six Buffalo games went over total.

Cardinals (4-2) @ Vikings (4-2)—Larry Fitzgerald goes home to Metrodome, where Cardinals lost last seven visits (27-24ot/34-10 last two years); Arizona has injury issues at QB, with Kolb/Skelton both having been KO’d from games this year. Redbirds lost last two games, scoring one TD on 25 drives, after scoring nine TDs on 49 drives in 4-0 start. Dogs are 6-0 vs spread in Arizona games; Cards are 5-3 in last eight games as a road dog. Minnesota gave up total of 33 points in three consecutive wins, then goes to Washington and gives up 38 points to rookie QB in game where they outgained Skins by 60 yards, but did turn ball over three times. Vikings are 3-0 at home this year, winning by 3-11-23 points; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six games as a home fave. NFC West non-divisional dogs are 9-1 vs spread, 5-1 on road; NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-3. Five of six Arizona games, four of last five Viking games stayed under total.

Browns (1-5) @ Colts (2-3)—Two rookie QBs and an interim coach in this game, good one to skip. Cleveland’s 27-19 win here LY was its first in six series games, with average total in last four meetings, 24.0; Browns are coming off first win of year, revenge win over Bengals where Cincy outgained them by 110 yards but turned ball over four times. Cleveland is 3-5-2 vs spread in game following its last 10 wins- they’re 0-3 on road, allowing 32.7 ppg in losses by 7-7-14 points. Indy is 2-3 with both wins by FG; they’re 2-1 at home, giving up 80-yard TD pass in last 2:00 in only loss. Browns need to make hay on ground; Indy allowed average of 192.7 rushing yards/game in last three games. Cleveland allowed 23+ points in each of last five games; Colts are 2-0 when they score 23+. AFC South teams are 2-2 as non-divisional favorite (they’ve been dog in 11 of 15 non-div games); AFC North teams are 3-3 as non-divisional underdogs.

Ravens (5-1) @ Texans (5-1)—Ravens won last two weeks by total of 5 points despite allowing 214-227 rushing yards, and having 10-yard deficits in field position in both games; Baltimore defense crippled with Webb/Lewis out for year, so expecting Ravens to become more of offense-driven team. Ravens won four games in row, with three of four wins by 3 or less points—underdogs covered their last five games. Houston got waxed in primetime Sunday night, as quality of opponent improved; since ’07, they’re 17-12-3 as home favorite. Since ’08, Ravens are 11-6-1 as road dogs. Texans are have never beaten (0-6) Baltimore, losing twice to them LY, including 20-13 in Charm City playoff game- Ravens are 3-0 here, winning by 4-28-6 points. Houston is 7-3 vs spread in pre-bye games; Ravens won three of their last four such games. Four of six Baltimore games, three of last four Texan games went over total.

Packers (3-3) @ Rams (3-3)—Third straight road game (historic weak spot) for Green Bay, which woke up bigtime last week and pounded Texans in primetime; defense had six takeaways (+6), after having total of five in first five games. Pack won last three series games by 19-19-21 points; this is huge upgrade in opposing QB for stout Ram defense, which faced three rookies/Kolb in first six games (Stafford/Cutler other two). Ram offense is awful in red zone (3.79 per trip, well below NFL average), and with shaky OL/Amendola out, they’re even worse, but St Louis is 3-0 at home, allowing 14.7 ppg- they’ve given up 11 ppg in last three games (three TD’s on 31 drives). Packers scored 28-27-42 points in last three games; they’re 1-2 on road, losing in Seattle/Indy by total of five points, but loss at Seattle was bogus. NFC West non-divisional home dogs are 4-0 vs spread; NFC North favorites are 4-7, 1-3 on road.
Cowboys (2-3) @ Panthers (1-4)—Dallas is 8-3 in this series, 4-2 here, with both losses in playoff games; Pokes won last four series games by average score of 25-18. Cowboys lost three of last four games, allowing 27-34-31 points (four TD’s on defense/special teams)- they’ve held foes to 17-10 points in wins. Carolina was held under 400 yards in three of five games; they scored 10-7-12 points in those games. Only one of five opponents (Bears, 360) gained more than 316 vs Dallas. Cam Newton hasn’t played as well this year; Panthers lost last two home games, scoring 9.5 ppg (1 TD/19 drives)- their only win was over dysfunctional Saints, but Carolina has won five of last seven post-bye games. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 2-8 vs spread, 0-4 on road; NFC South teams are 4-5 SU in non-divisional home games (favored in all nine). Garrett/ Romo combo under fire for shaky time management in last minute of LW’s loss at Baltimore- this is game they have to have.

Redskins (3-3) @ Giants (4-2)—Little bit of trap game for Big Blue, after convincing 49er win last week and with hated Cowboys on deck, but Redskins swept series (28-14/23-10) LY, after losing nine of previous ten series games, so Giants do have revenge motive of sorts. Redskins lost six of last eight visits here, but finally have franchise QB in rookie Griffin, whose offense has been held under 24 points in only one of six games- they’ve been plus in turnovers in five of six games (+9) and were even in 6th game. Skins won SU both times they’ve been favored this year, with no losses by more than seven points. Giants won four of last five games, covered last four- their last three wins are by 29-14-23 points. Big Blue is 1-2 as home favorite; road team covered five of their six games. Divisional favorites are 6-7 vs spread this season, 1-4 in NFC. Five of six Redskin games went over total; three of last four Giant games stayed under.

Saints (1-4) @ Buccaneers (2-3)—Saints are still scoring points; they’ve scored 24+ in all five games, but they’re not running ball well (83 or less yards in all four losses). Teams split season series last four years, going 2-2 in each park; Saints lost four of last six visits here. Bucs held three of five opponents to 16 or less points, but they also gave up 25 points in 4th quarter to Giants, and Brees’ offense is as explosive as that one. Tampa Bay allowed 10 points in both wins; 16-41-24 in losses- they should throw parade for Schiano if he holds NO to 10 points. Dogs covered four of five Buc games; Tampa is 2-1 at home, with only loss 24-22 to Redskins. Saints are 5-8 in last 13 tries as road favorite; they scored 27 points in both road games this year, but lost both anyway- they won/covered last three post-bye games, scoring 48-34-49 points, but those games were with Payton as coach, under normal circumstances. Four of five Saint games, three of last four Tampa Bay games went over total.

Jets (3-3) @ Patriots (3-3)—Way to beat the Patriots is thru air; they’ve allowed 7.2+ yards/pass attempt in each of last four games, one of only two teams (Titans) to do that. Brady was sub-par in red zone in Seattle, scoring one TD, three FG’s on six visits in 24-23 loss; NE averaged 3.79 pts/red zone drive in its three losses, 5.93 in wins—they’ll move ball between 20’s vs anyone. Jets are 6-8 as road dog under Ryan; they’ve allowed only one TD, three FGs in red zone last two games, after getting crushed 34-0 at home by 49ers. Since ’05, Patriots are 28-28-1 vs spread as home favorite, 9-12 in division games. Pats won 30-21/37-16 in LY’s meetings, also beat Tebow’s Broncos 41-23/45-10; after Sparano sprung Wildcat on NE and upset them in its debut, Patriots have learned to defend it. Last nine series games were decided by 9+ points; Jets lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 17-42-9 points, and win in ’10 playoffs. Last four New England games went over total.

Jaguars (1-4) @ Raiders (1-4)—Oakland hired Denver’s DC as its new head coach, so of course they stink on defense, allowing 31.5 ppg in last four games (14 TD’s on last 43 drives); since ’06, Raiders are 4-14 vs spread as home favorites, 0-1 this year- their only win was 34-31 upset of Steelers four weeks ago. In their history, Jags were underdog in only two of 17 post-bye games (9-8 SU), failing to cover either; they’ve played better on road this year, with both away games (1-1) coming down to last minute- they got smoked in all three home games. Jags are giving up average of 163 rushing yards/game, would expect Oakland to try and pound ball to take stress off defense. Jax won four of five series games, with only loss in first meeting (‘96); they’ve won two of three visits here, with average total in three games, 22.7. AFC South non-divisional road dogs are 1-4 against spread. Three of last four Jaguar games stayed under the total.

Steelers (2-3) @ Bengals (3-3)—Since 2006, Pitt is just 11-17-1 vs spread in games where line was 3 or less points; Cincy covered 11 of last 17 such games. Steelers won four in row, nine of last 11 series games, with average score in last four meetings, 27-13; they’ve won 10 of last 11 visits here, in what has been lopsided rivalry. Pitt has issues on OL; only once in its five games have they run ball for more than 75 yards. Steelers allowed 10-14 points in its two wins, 26+ in its three losses; they had three extra days to rest/prep here after damaging loss in Nashville last week. Bengals were 3-1, then lost to Miami/Browns last two weeks, turning ball over seven times; they’re now -7 in turnovers for season- if they don’t clean that up, this’ll be another long season. Cincy won three of last four pre-bye games, but since ’91, they’re 4-8 vs spread as underdog in pre-bye tilts. All three Steeler road games, and four of six Bengal games went over total.

Lions (2-3) @ Bears (4-1)—Chicago’s four wins are all by 16+ points; their only loss was on very short week at Lambeau. Bears are 2-0 as home favorites this year, beating lesser foes by 20-17 points- since ’05, they’re 8-6 as a divisional home favorite. Bears already have 17 takeaways this year (+9), trait of Smith’s better teams. Undisciplined Lions have allowed six TD’s on defense/special teams; they won at Philly last week despite being penalized 16 times for 132 yards. Three of five Detroit games were decided by 4 or less points, with two of last three going OT; dogs covered four of their five games. Chicago won seven of last eight series games, winning last four here by average score of 33-19; Lions ended long series skid with home win LY. Bears won five of last six post-bye games, including win as an 8-point dog LY. Bears are averaging 4.8 explosive (20+ yards) plays per game; Lions allowed a total of three in their last two games.

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NFL

Week 7

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 18

8:20 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Seattle is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
San Francisco is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home


Sunday, October 21

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Giants last 9 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the NY Giants last 13 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Minnesota is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. HOUSTON
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. CAROLINA
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. BUFFALO
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ST. LOUIS
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
St. Louis is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. OAKLAND
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 12 games

4:15 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England
NY Jets are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games when playing New England
New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing NY Jets

8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 3-9-3 ATS in its last 15 games


Monday, October 22

8:30 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit

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NFL

Week 7

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Thursday Night Football: Seahawks at 49ers
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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 37.5)

Week 7 kicks off Thursday night with a big NFC West showdown between the visiting Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers.

Seattle is coming off an unlikely 24-23 comeback victory at home over New England in which it scored 14 points over the final 7:21 of the fourth quarter. Rookie Russell Wilson upstaged a 395-yard passing performance from Tom Brady by throwing late touchdown passes to Braylon Edwards and Sidney Rice, the latter coming with 1:18 remaining.

San Francisco is hoping to bounce back from a dismal 26-3 home loss to the New York Giants. The 49ers, who outscored their opponents 79-3 in their previous two games, took the lead against New York before allowing 26 unanswered points. They are in danger of losing consecutive contests for the first time under coach Jim Harbaugh, who guided them to a 13-3 record last season - his first with the team.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The 49ers opened as high as 9-point home favorites but have been bet down to -7 with action on the Seahawks. The total has also moved, going from 39.5 to 37.5 points.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies in the Bay Area, with temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS): Wilson was the first rookie quarterback in the NFL to overcome a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter since Tennessee's Vince Young, who accomplished the feat in 2006 against the Giants. Wilson has defeated Brady, Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Dallas' Tony Romo already this season. Jon Ryan averaged 60.0 yards on four punts Sunday, becoming just the third punter in history to average at least 60 yards on a minimum of four punts and first since Detroit's Bob Cifers, who had a 61.75 average on Nov. 24, 1946. Running back Marshawn Lynch gained only 41 yards on the ground, his lowest total since running for 24 yards against Cincinnati on Week 8 last season.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS): Quarterback Alex Smith, who also was sacked four times, threw three interceptions in Sunday's loss to the Giants. It was the seventh time in his career and first since Dec. 20, 2009, against Philadelphia that the former No. 1 overall pick was picked off three times. Tackle Joe Staley left Sunday's game in the third quarter with a concussion. New York's Ahmad Bradshaw rushed for 116 yards, becoming the first opponent to eclipse the 100-yard mark in San Francisco in 22 games. He also recorded the first rushing touchdown allowed by the 49ers in 14 contests. After recording seven first downs in the opening quarter on Sunday, the 49ers notched a total of seven over the final three periods. Thursday's contest is San Francisco's first divisional game of the season.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in San Francisco.
* Seahawks are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 road games.
* 49ers are 21-8-3 ATS in their last 32 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. 49ers WR Randy Moss became the fourth receiver in NFL history to reach the 15,000-yard mark, joining Jerry Rice (22,895), Terrell Owens (15,934) and Isaac Bruce (15,208). Moss enters Thursday with 15,032 yards.

2. Seattle's top-ranked defense allowed a season-high 475 yards Sunday. None of its first five opponents eclipsed 300 yards.

3. San Francisco K David Akers has kicked a field goal in a franchise-record 22 consecutive games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:20 PM ET San Francisco -7.5 500

San Francisco - Under 37.5 500

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Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 7
Back again to see what Sharps (professional wagerers) are doing in the NFL markets. Note that Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miami Philadelphia, and San Diego all have byes, and SF/Seattle was last night (interesting safety call from coach Harbaugh eh?),so we have a 12-game card on tap this week. Let's dive right in.


TENNESSEE AT BUFFALO:
This will not be a high action game this Sunday, with limited TV coverage and fan interest. Sharps haven’t stepped forward either. The opener of Buffalo -3.5 is still out there, though some stores have dropped down to a field goal with extra favorite vigorish. If you like Tennessee, shop for the hook. If you like Buffalo, try to find the key number. Sharps aren’t high on either of these teams right now, and would be most likely to invest in them only as medium or large underdogs against overrated favorites. Not much interest in the total.

ARIZONA AT MINNESOTA:
Minnesota moved from an opener of -5.5 up to -6 on the confirmation that Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb would be out for several weeks. John Skelton will return to the position for a Cardinals’ offense that’s been consistently bad all season. It’s worth noting that a decent-sized underdog isn’t getting support amidst a season where underdogs are on fire against the spread. Sharps want underdogs who can score points.

CLEVELAND AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Cleveland falls into that category (an underdog scoring points) based on what we’ve seen the past few weeks. And, they got support from Sharps at the opening line of +3 against the Colts. We’re now seeing Indy -2.5 in most places. That will put Cleveland in the two-team teaser window where you can move them across the 3 and the 7 to +8.5. Sharps who liked Cleveland at +3 will really like them at +8.5 in teasers. Note that this line move suggests that the market now thinks Cleveland is a better team than Indianapolis, as home field by itself is worth three points in the NFL.

BALITMORE AT HOUSTON:
Houston jumped from an opener of -4.5 to -6.5 because of all the bad injury news for the Ravens, and, it also doesn’t hurt that we have a Super Bowl contender playing at home after a home loss. Note that the line didn’t move all the way to a full touchdown. Sharps would come in on the dog at +7 if the public were to push Houston to that key number.

GREEN BAY AT ST. LOUIS:
Not much interest in this game, as Green Bay -5.5 has stayed solid all week. Green Bay did look great Sunday Night in Houston, but hasn’t played at a high enough level consistently this season to drive the line toward a full touchdown. St. Louis has offered value recently, but this is the first time in a few weeks that Sam Bradford is matched up against a top notch quarterback. It’s one thing to hang tough with Arizona and Miami, quite another to stay with a GB offense that may be finding its rhythm. Sharps aren’t nibbling, yet. Either they like one side at the current line, or they're waiting to fade any game day line moves caused by the public.

DALLAS AT CAROLINA:
Dallas opened at -2, and we’re seeing either -2 or -2.5 in most stores right now. That puts another underdog in the teaser window, which means many Sharps will be pairing Cleveland with Carolina at +8.5 in two-team teasers. Parity is limiting the number of favorites who will be in teasers because so few games are landing in the 7.5, 8, and 8.5 range. If you like playing basic strategy teasers, get ready to manage a kennel. The total is up a point from 44.5 to 45.5, one of the few totals moves worth mentioning on the Sunday card. That’s a bigger move than it seems because 45 is a key number for a game near 3-points on the line (24-21). The money drove the line not just to 45, but beyond.

WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS:
Oddsmakers opened the Giants as favorites of -6.5, kind of daring bettors to jump in on the hosts at less than a key number. Sharps didn’t bite, and in fact, bet the Redskins. We’re now seeing Washington +5.5. Generally speaking, if you see an opener of 6.5, oddsmakers expect Sharps to be on the dog and squares to be on the favorite. Oddsmakers were right about that in general terms, but are probably wishing now they had opened a tick lower than they did, to avoid getting middled. The lack of totals interest so far suggests that weather isn’t going to be much of a factor this weekend. We would have seen Under money at outdoor sites if rain or wind was in the mid-range forecasts.

NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY:
This is likely to be a game where Sharps will be on Tampa Bay +3, while the public will be on New Orleans at -2.5. There are Sharps who think this line should be more like -1 or 2, based on how the season has played out, as well as the history of this divisional series. The public, however, loves betting on Drew Brees at cheap prices. So, we’ll have a tug of war around the critical number, and Tampa Bay will join the list of underdogs in basic strategy teasers. Again, if Sharps like a dog at +3, then they will logically like that dog even more in teasers at +8.5 (crossing the key numbers 3, 4,6 and 7) based on the percentages.

NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND:
New England opened at -11, which struck a lot of people as high, given the divisional rivalry status of this matchup, and the fact that good defenses have been able to hang with the Patriots in Foxboro recently. The Jets also won a playoff game on this field a couple of years back. Sharps hit the dog, so we’re seeing +10 now in most places. Not big passion for the Jets, but enough to drive the opener down to a key number. All the old school guys who bet all double digit dogs on principle were also involved quickly here.

JACKSONVILLE AT OAKLAND:
This game has garnered a lot of discussion, but not a lot of action. Oakland opened at -4 even though many ratings systems had them at last 3 to 4 points superior to the Jags on a neutral field,which translates to -6 or 7 at home. Jacksonville is coming off a bye week, while Oakland is a dicey favorite. Sharps left this game alone, at least for now. Squares are deciding whether or not they want to trust an inconsistent favorite at a price lower than they expected. The total is up a point from 42.5 to 43.5. That’s from the math guys who think Oakland’s general tendencies of poor defense with decent offense will likely determine the flow of the game.

PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI:
Pittsburgh opened at -1.5 and has stayed there. This puts Cincinnati on the dog-teaser list because the six-point move crosses both the 3 and the 7. It’s hard to justify a Pittsburgh bet at this price because the team has played so poorly on the road this year. If you can’t beat Tennessee on the road, how can you lay points in Cincinnati? But the Bengals have been a disappointment too. As a result, Sharps will focus on teasers, and will fade any significant public move on game day. This line strikes them as the right price, and, “right prices” make teasers even stronger plays, because those six points offer increased value in games likely to land close to the line, like last night's SF/Sea game.

DETROIT AT CHICAGO:
This is an interesting game because many stat methodologies actually have Chicago as a Super Bowl contender right now. A few prominent publications currently rank the Bears as #1 in the NFL, even with that dismal showing in Green Bay earlier this season. Is Chicago really that good? An opener of Bears -6 showed them respect. Some Sharps (the math guys) have laid that number to drive the line to -6.5 in some locales. Still, most Sharps would take the Lions at +7 if the public drives the number up before Monday Night’s kickoff. Chicago becomes an EXTREME “public” team (like the Cowboys, Packers, Patriots or Saints) in their better years because of their national fan base, and the fact that many in the Las Vegas media have roots in Chicago. If the Bears do impress Monday, they may become overpriced very quickly because of public groundswell.

That wraps up this weeks look at the NFL markets. As always, Good Luck Den!!