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NFL Week 6 Preview: Cowboys at Ravens

DALLAS COWBOYS (2-2)

at BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -3½, Total: 44

Baltimore seeks a fourth straight victory on Sunday afternoon when Dallas pays a visit to Charm City.

Dallas had a bye week after Tony Romo’s five-interception Monday Night Football disaster against the Bears, but things won’t be easier playing on the road at Baltimore. The bye week should help, but Romo has thrown 2 TD and 7 INT over his past three games as the Cowboys offense has been as dysfunctional as ever. Baltimore’s new no-huddle attack has been slowed the past two games, managing just 32 points against two weak defenses (Cleveland and Kansas City). The Ravens defense has managed only nine sacks this year while playing without reigning defensive player of the year OLB Terrell Suggs (Achilles).

Can the Cowboys halt the Ravens win streak on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Although Tony Romo is getting all the blame, his Dallas team hasn't figured out how to run the football, averaging a comical 42.7 rushing yards per game since Week 2. DeMarco Murray, who averaged 5.5 YPC last season, is down to 3.9 YPC this year. Romo has spread the wealth in the passing game between his top three receivers (Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Kevin Ogletree) and TE Jason Witten. Austin has been the most consistent, but Bryant (9 TD in 2011) has zero touchdowns in 2012, Ogletree has just nine catches over the past three weeks and Witten is tied for the league lead in dropped passes with five. The Cowboys secondary continues to be the strength of the football team leading the league with 169.5 passing YPG allowed, despite giving up 267 to Chicago in the last game. Dallas has shored up its run defense in the past two weeks, allowing just 168 yards on 53 carries (3.2 YPC).

Joe Flacco is coming off a season-low 187 passing yards in last week's ugly 9-6 win at Kansas City. However, he has been outstanding in three home games this season, throwing for 1,037 yards (346 YPG), 6 TD and 2 INT. WR Anquan Boldin started the season off slow, but he has strung together two great games, compiling 213 yards on 13 catches. Despite a subpar air attack against the Chiefs, RB Ray Rice had his best rushing performance last week, gaining 102 yards on 6.0 YPC. The Ravens have now rushed for more than 100 yards in all five games this season. Defensively, Baltimore's run-stop unit gave up 214 yards last week, but the Chiefs carried the ball 50 times, gaining just 4.3 yards per attempt. For the season, Baltimore ranks sixth in the league by allowing just 3.5 YPC.

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NFL Week 6 Preview: Lions at Eagles

DETROIT LIONS (1-3)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -3½, Total: 47½

Well-rested Detroit tries to put an end to its three-game losing skid on Sunday when it visits a Philadelphia team that has lost two of its past three contests.

The Lions have been completely unwilling to open up their offense this year, a big reason they’ve dropped three in a row and had to come back to beat the Rams at home for their lone SU win way back in Week 1. Their defense has been average and their special teams have been atrocious during a three-game slide, though they had a bye week to address their issues. The Eagles continue to give the ball away. QB Michael Vick lost two more fumbles in their Week 5 loss at Pittsburgh, making it 14 giveaways for the Eagles on the season (second-most in the NFL). Despite that, Philly is 3-0 SU when it tallies at least 400 yards of offense.

Can the Lions end their long losing skid facing Philadelphia? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Matthew Stafford's Lions rank second in the NFL in passing offense (322 YPG), but he has more interceptions (four) than touchdown passes (three) this season. WR Calvin Johnson, who scored 16 touchdowns a year ago, sits with just one TD catch, but he does have 29 receptions and 423 yards in four games. TE Brandon Pettigrew, who had seven catches for 108 yards two years ago against Philadelphia, is listed as questionable with a knee injury, but he should be able to play on Sunday. Detroit's ground game is a bigger concern though, eclipsing 85 rushing yards just once this season. In the Lions last game versus Minnesota, the team rushed for just 55 yards on 20 carries. RB Mikel Leshoure should finally be 100 percent healthy, and has a chance for a strong game against an Eagles defense that allowed 136 rushing yards against the Steelers last week. On the defensive side of the ball, Detroit has actually been better than most teams, ranking 10th in passing defense (213 YPG) and 13th in rushing defense (103 YPG). The Lions held the Vikings to 227 total yards in their last game.

The Eagles' offense has sputtered in the past three weeks, scoring just 13.0 PPG, but they piled up plenty of numbers in their 35-32 win at Detroit in 2010. Vick threw for 284 yards and 2 TD that day, with DeSean Jackson going for 135 receiving yards and a score. But the hero of that game was LeSean McCoy, who rushed for 120 yards on just 16 carries (7.5 YPC), finding the end zone three times. That made his team 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) versus Detroit over the past six meetings. The Lions may have a better defense now than they did two years ago, but Philly's biggest issue has been turnovers and Detroit has forced just three turnovers for the entire season. If the Eagles can hang onto the football, the yards will come. Although the Eagles rushed for a mere 78 yards last week, they started the season with four straight games of 125+ yards on the ground. On defense, Philadelphia has been solid in both facets, ranking 9th against the pass (209 YPG) and 12th versus the run (98 YPG). However, they have forced just one turnover over the past three weeks combined.

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NFL Week 6 Preview: Giants at 49ers

NEW YORK GIANTS (3-2)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -6½, Total: 46

The Giants look to retain their dominance over the 49ers when the two teams clash Sunday in San Francisco for a rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game.

New York is 4-1 SU in the past five meetings in this series, and is 6-1 ATS in the past seven matchups. QB Eli Manning had relative success against the Niners’ elite defense in the past two meetings, throwing for 627 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT. Two fumbles by punt returner Kyle Williams were the difference in the Giants’ 20-17 overtime win in the NFC title game. This year, Big Blue's vaunted defensive line is struggling while the 49ers offense has taken a step forward. They’ve topped 30 points three times and went for a franchise-record 621 yards of offense in last week’s 45-3 win over Buffalo.

Who will win this NFC Championship rematch on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning has been pretty strong all season, throwing for 1,579 yards (316 YPG), 10 TD and 5 INT. In last week's 41-27 win over Cleveland, he and Victor Cruz hooked up for five catches, 50 yards and three touchdowns. Cruz leads the NFC in targets (57), and a big reason why is the absence of fellow starting wideout Hakeem Nicks. Although he has missed three straight games with knee and foot injuries, Nicks has been practicing all week and could possibly suit up on Sunday. This is key for a Giants team that will likely take to the air more than to try to run the football on a San Francisco front seven that could be the league's best. However, New York won't completely abandon the run, especially after the performance Ahmad Bradshaw had against Cleveland when he rushed for 200 yards on 30 carries. New York's much-hyped defensive line has not been able to generate a consistent pass rush this year, tallying just eight sacks over five games. Only four other NFL teams have fewer sacks than New York. That has led to mediocre yardage rankings for the Giants defense, which places 22nd against the pass (261 YPG) and 16th against the run (111 YPG). Some of this lackluster play has been due to injuries, which still linger. CB Jayron Hosley (hamstring), S Kenny Phillips (knee), CB Corey Webster (hamstring) and LB Chase Blackburn (hip) are all listed as questionable or doubtful to play on Sunday.

Speaking of injuries, 49ers QB Alex Smith sprained the middle finger on his throwing hand last week, but he will start on Sunday. He is in the midst of a strong season, completing 69% of his throws for 1,087 yards (7.9 YPA), 8 TD and just 1 INT. Last week against Buffalo, he was nearly perfect, completing 18-of-24 passes for 303 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. He also rushed for 49 yards. Speaking of rushing, San Francisco leads the NFL with 196 rushing YPG. In just the past two weeks, the Niners have rolled up an astonishing 556 yards on 82 carries (6.8 YPC). Frank Gore leads the club with 434 rushing yards and 4 TD, but backup Kendall Hunter has been great over the past two weeks especially, rushing for 137 yards and a touchdown on just 19 carries (7.2 YPC). San Francisco's defense has been incredible in the past two weeks, allowing a total of three points and 349 total yards in wins over the Jets (34-0) and Bills (45-3). For the season, the Niners have forced 10 turnovers and rank among the league's top-7 in both rushing defense (181 rush YPG, 2nd in NFL) and passing defense (81 pass YPG, 7th in NFL).

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NFL Week 6 Preview: Broncos at Chargers

DENVER BRONCOS (2-3)

at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (3-2)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:40 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -1, Total: 49½

San Diego looks to retain its series dominance over a Denver team that has lost four straight road games.

The Chargers are 9-3 SU (8-3-1 ATS) in the past 12 meetings with the Broncos. But Denver has won two of three at San Diego, including last November when the Tim Tebow-led Broncos tripped up the Bolts, 16-13. The Chargers once again have question marks, especially in pass protection. LT Jared Gaither is dealing with back and groin injuries and could barely move by the end of last game, which is a big a problem as they get set to face pass-rushing stud LBs Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. The Chargers have given Peyton Manning fits during the Norv Turner years. With the Colts, Manning lost four of five to Turner’s Chargers, SU and ATS, while posting 10 TD and 13 INT.

Which AFC West team will come out on top Monday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning has been outstanding in his past three games, throwing for 330+ yards and multiple touchdowns in each contest without throwing a single interception. Four different Broncos receivers have scored at least two touchdowns, including Demaryius Thomas who has caught 14 passes for 283 yards in the past two games. He practiced on a limited basis Thursday due to a hip injury, but should be available to start on Monday. WR Eric Decker has scored in each of the past two games, but his receiving yards have plummeted in the past two weeks, going from 136 to 79 to 21 last Sunday. Denver's passing game should be just fine, but there are questions surrounding RB Willis McGahee who had a key dropped pass and lost fumble in last week's loss. He also gained a mere 51 yards on 14 carries (3.6 YPC). Turnovers have killed the Broncos on the road this year, as they have a minus-6 turnover rate with seven giveaways and just one takeaway in the two contests. Denver's pass defense has been strong (215 YPG, 11th in NFL), but the rushing defense has surrendered 120 YPG (21st in league), including a whopping 251 yards to New England last week.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers has played very well in this series since 2006, passing for 246 yards per game, 20 TD and just 6 INT in these 12 contests. He's also coming off a strong outing in New Orleans, completing 27-of-42 passes for 354 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. RB Ryan Mathews has been bothered by an ankle injury, but he looked great against the Saints last week with 80 rushing yards on 6.7 YPC plus six catches for 59 more yards. He'll be expected to carry a huge workload, considering he has rushed for at least 120 yards in each of the past three meetings with Denver, totaling 413 yards from scrimmage (138 YPG) and 3 TD. In terms of the defensive run-stop unit, San Diego has not allowed 120 rushing yards once this season, including holding New Orleans to 53 yards on 21 carries last week. The passing defense has been a bit suspect though, allowing 850 passing yards (283 YPG) in the past three games.

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NFL Week 6 Preview: Packers at Texans

GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-3)

at HOUSTON TEXANS (5-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -3, Total: 47½

Unbeaten Houston tries to run its win streak to six when it faces its toughest opponent of the season with Green Bay coming to town.

The Packers have struggled on the road of late, dropping three in a row SU and four straight ATS. They blew an 18-point lead in a 30-27 loss at Indianapolis last week. The Texans are an elite defense, but haven’t faced a quarterback nearly as good as Aaron Rodgers this season. Other than Peyton Manning, the other four opposing signal-callers are not considered elite -- Ryan Tannehill, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. Houston's offense should have an advantage though, with its top-notch running game going against a weak Packers run defense that could be without NT B.J. Raji (ankle).

Who will win this heavyweight showdown on Sunday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

The Packers are reeling after last week’s loss to heavy underdog Colts, getting outscored 27-6 in the final two quarters. Their offense is getting close to last year’s form, but RB Cedric Benson (foot) and TE Jermichael Finley (shoulder) were both injured last week, joining WR Greg Jennings (groin). Benson is out 6-to-8 weeks, Jennings is doubtful and Finley is questionable for Sunday night. RB Alex Green expects to receive the bulk of carries in this game, but he has just 15 rushing attempts over two NFL seasons. However, he did rip off a 41-yard rush as part of a 63-yard effort against the Colts. The Packers rank 17th in the NFL in both rushing yards (114 YPG) and passing yards (230 YPG), which would be even better if they created more turnovers. Since compiling four takeaways against the Bears in Week 2, Green Bay has forced only one turnover in the past three games combined.

Houston QB Matt Schaub continues to fly under the radar, but he is having a pretty strong season, completing 64% of his passes for 1,162 yards (232 per game), 8 TD and just 2 INT. His numbers will be even more impressive once Andre Johnson (groin) gets healthy and the Texans make a more concerted effort to get him the ball. Johnson has just nine catches for 164 yards and 1 TD over the past four weeks. TE Owen Daniels has been getting some of the passes usually headed towards the heavily-covered Johnson. Daniels leads the team with 23 catches and has scored a touchdown in each of the past three weeks. Houston's running game has been inconsistent this year, but it still ranks sixth in the league with 143 YPG after gaining 169 yards (4.8 YPC) against the Jets last week. The Texans defense has allowed 20 points just once this season, and has stopped teams both in the air (190 pass YPG, 3rd in NFL) and on the ground (85 rush YPG, 9th in league). DE J.J. Watt has been the best defensive player on the planet with 26 tackles, 7½ sacks, 8 passes defended and two fumble recoveries. But not all is well with the Texans, who lost their defensive leader, LB Brian Cushing, for the season with a torn ACL suffered when he was cut-blocked by Jets OL Matt Slauson last week.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Sunday's Games
Bengals (3-2) @ Browns (0-5)—First rematch of young season; Cleveland (+6.5) lost 34-27 at Cincy in Week 2, their 8th loss in last nine series games- Bengals ran punt back for TD, but were outgained 439-375, and Dalton was sacked six times. Four of last seven series games were decided by 3 or less points. Bengals won two of three on road this year, scoring 38-27 points in wins at Redskins/Jaguars- they’re 3-1-1 as road favorites since ’10, after covering only two of previous 10 in that role. Browns jumped out to quick 14-0 lead in Swamp last week, but gave up 502 TY (243 RY/259 PY) in 41-27 loss to Giants, fourth game in row they’ve allowed 23+ points. Bengals scored 27+ points in their three wins, 13 in both losses. Home dogs are 5-5 in divisional play this season; 5-0 in AFC, 0-5 in NFC.

Colts (2-2) @ Jets (2-3)—Indy played with great emotion last week for coach Pagano (leukemia), rallying from down 21-3 at half to upset Packers and even record; this is their first road game since 41-21 (+9.5) loss at Chicago in season opener- Colts’ last three games were all decided by 5 or less points. Dysfunctional Jets need to define roles for their QBs, to reduce confusion; they’re on short week here, after Monday night home loss. Jets scored 23+ points in both wins, 10-0-17 in losses- their overrated defense allowed 185-245-169 rushing yards in last three games. Rookie QB Luck isn’t playing like; Colts converted 25 of last 55 (45.5%) third down plays. Teams are 3-3 since they’ve no longer been division rivals, with last two meetings in playoffs. Three of last four Jet games stayed under total.

Chiefs (1-4) @ Buccaneers (1-3)—Quinn has 3-9 career W-L record as NFL starter, gets first start for Chiefs here, vs Bucs’ squad that lost last three games, all by 7 or less points. KC held Ravens without TD last week after allowing 34 ppg in first four games, but Cassel’s goal line fumble killed one drive and proved fatal in difficult 9-6 loss that had some idiots cheering when Cassel got hurt (head). Unsure Quinn has weaponry to exploit Buc defense that allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in three of its four games. Keep in mind Chiefs were down 24-6 in Superdome in their only win. Underdogs covered all four Tampa bay games. NFC South home favorites are 2-5 vs spread in non-division games; AFC West road teams are 1-5. Tampa won four of last five post-bye games, covered five of last six.

Raiders (1-3) @ Falcons (5-0)—Oakland is 0-9 vs spread in last nine post-bye games, with four of last five post-bye losses by 14+ points; they allowed 35-31-37 points in last three games, giving up TD on first drive in all three games. Raiders lost 34-13/37-6 in their two road games, giving up nine TDs on 21 drives, despite being even in turnovers. Oakland hasn’t picked off a pass yet this year. Falcons won six of last eight pre-bye games, covered seven of last eight; they’re 3-1 as a favorite this year, winning both home games (27-21 vs Denver/30-28 vs Carolina). AFC West unon-divisional underdogs are 3-6 vs spread, 1-4 on road. Atlanta is 7-5 in series, 3-3 here, Well-coached Falcons have 35-13 scoring edge on first drive of each half this season. With last three series games all decided by 24+ points.

Cowboys (2-2) @ Ravens (4-1)—Baltimore’s struggles last week could’ve been connected to knowing former DC Pagano is ill; he worked for Ravens for last four years; since 2003, Ravens are 27-10-2 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites, but three of their last four games this year were decided by 3 or less points. Dallas covered 15 of last 20 post-bye games (4-2 as underdog), but lost 34-27/20-16 last two years; Pokes lost two of last three games, scoring 13.7 ppg while running ball for just 42.7 ypg, while giving up two defensive TDs and one on a blocked punt. Ravens won last four series games by average score of 27-12; last Dallas series win was against old Browns in ’91. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 4-0 vs spread this season; AFC North favorites are 1-6. Cowboys covered seven of last 11 as a road underdog.

Lions (1-3) @ Eagles (3-2)—Detroit allowed four special teams TDs in last two games, bad news for team that employs two special teams coaches. Four of five Philly games been decided by 1 or 2 points; over last two years, Vick has nine red zone turnovers; no one else has more than five, and it cost them a win at Heinz last week. Eagles won last six games in this series, scoring 121 points in last three meetings, but 14 giveaways in five games this year is red flag- -they beat Giants in only game without TO. Lions lost three of last four post-bye games, are 3-5 vs spread in last eight tries as post-bye underdog- they’re 0-6 vs spread in last six road games, overall. Philly OC Mornhinweg went 5-27 as Lions’ HC in 2001-02. Four of five Eagle games stayed under total. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 1-7 against the spread.

Rams (3-2) @ Dolphins (2-3)—St Louis coach Fisher had choice of these two jobs last winter, made right call, but sure Miami is happy with Philbin, too, since Fish staying competitive with rookie QB- their last two losses were both in OT. Rams are 2-0 vs rookie QBs (RGIII/Wilson) this year, but both of those games were in dome; they lost 23-6 at Chicago in only outdoor action so far this season, and lost late at Detroit, 27-23, in only other road game. Since ’06, Rams are 14-9-1 vs spread in game following a win. Shaky OL has hindered Ram offense; they’ve run ball for only 68.5 ypg in two road game- they’ll need to run ball better with best WR Amendola (collarbone) out for two months. Fish won nine of 11 in this seldom-played series; Rams are 1-4 at Miami, with only win coming in first visit 36 years ago. Miami is 20-50 vs spread in last 70 home games (1-1 in ’12).

Patriots (4-1) @ Seahawks (3-2)—Pete Carroll was Pats’ coach before Belichick; big egos involved here, this should be good game. Can Seattle crowd disrupt NE no-huddle offense, which ran 321 plays in last four games (awful lot for NFL team)? Patriots scored 37.7 ppg in last three games (14 TDs on 39 drives); they’re 2-1 on road, scoring 38.7 ppg, and are Hawks scored 16 or less points in four of five games, all four of which were decided by 6 or less points; Seattle won its two home games, jumping on Dallas early with special teams play, then lucking out on last second Hail Mary TD vs Packers. Patriots are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 games as non-divisional road favorite. Seahawks covered 12 of last 20 tries as a home dog. All five Seattle games stayed under total; last three Patriot games went over.

Bills (2-3) @ Cardinals (4-1)—Interesting to see how Redbirds rebound after 17-3 loss in St Louis; Kolb has been sacked 17 times in last two games, and with RB Williams out for year, not sure if Arizona can exploit Buffalo defense that allowed 558 rushing yards (7.2 ypc) in last two games (90 points in last six quarters). Bills allowed 45+ in three losses, by 20-24-42 points; they’ve allowed 17-14 in their wins. Ram loss was first time this year Cardinals scored less than 20 points- they’ve had three extra days to prep since that Thursday loss, while Bills are out west for second week in row. Underdogs are 5-0 vs spread in Arizona games this year; Redbirds are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine tries as non-divisional home favorites. AFC East teams are 9-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 3-3 as road dogs. NFC West teams are 10-3, 3-2 as favorites.

Vikings (4-1) @ Redskins (2-3)— Washington fired its kicker this week after losing its 8th straight home game; he missed 31-yarders two games in row, so it was justified, but they’re unsure if RGIII (concussion) will play and even if he does, they’ve lost three of last four games, with losses to Rams/Bengals, so spunky Minnesota will be formidable foe, seeing as they find ways to win (won at Detroit without scoring an offensive TD). Home team lost last four series games; Vikings won last three visits here (17-13/33-26 last two years)- they’ve turned ball over only six times in five games, as 2nd year QB Ponder has managed games well. Minnesota has run ball for 149.3 yards/game the last three weeks, including 146 against the 49ers, so they’re hot team right now. Four of five Washington games went over total; last four Minnesota games stayed under.

Giants (3-2) @ 49ers (4-1)—Niners lost four of last five games to Big Blue, including OT loss in NFC title game LY, so this shot at revenge was circled on calendar when schedule came out in spring. Giants lost five of last seven visits here (two of last four were playoff games). 49ers crushed last two opponents by combined score of 79-3, running ball for 556 yards (6.8 ypc), but they also lost to Vikings and their other two wins are by 8 points each. Under Harbaugh, Niners are 9-0 vs spread as home favorites, 10-4-1 after a win; they’re +5 in turnovers, making them +33 in last 21 regular season games. Giants are 6-2 in last eight tries as a road underdog; they scored 17 points in both their losses, scored 41-36-41 points in wins (vs three weak sisters) despite falling behind early vs both Tampa/Cleveland. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 4-0 vs spread.

Green Bay (2-3) @ Houston (5-0)—Pack been off-kilter all year; they’ve yet to score on opening drive of game, gaining just 14.2 yards/drive, and they’ve been in wrong place at wrong time, getting hosed by replacement refs in Seattle, being in Indy the week Colts’ head coach became ill, which elicited an emotional effort by home team. Still, blowing a 21-3 halftime lead is a red flag; they lose this game, and they’re 2-4. Texans came out of blocks in last two games and had TD drives of 77-85 yards; they’re loaded on offense, but seem cautious about using some of those weapons. Short week for Texans after they played not-to-lose in 23-17 win at Swamp; loss of star LB Cushing for year (ACL) is going to hurt. Road team won both series games by a FG. Houston has waxed two lesser foes at home, 30-10/38-14, but this isn’t a lesser opponent.


Monday's Game
Broncos (2-3) @ Chargers (3-2)—Network TV’s fascination with Peyton Manning has Denver playing schedule frontloaded with tough games; they’ve lost three of last four games, but three losses came to teams ranked in top four in league. Winner of this game and rematch in five week goes long way towards taking AFC West title. Broncos lost 27-21 in Atlanta, 31-21 in Foxboro, but you get feeling Manning is feeling more comfortable with receivers. San Diego won nine of last 12 series games and four of last five, with last three decided by 5 or less points, but Denver won two of last three visits here. Chargers got hosed by officials in Superdome Sunday night; they’ve turned ball over six times in two losses (-4), twice in three wins (+6)- they were 7-24 on 3rd down last two games, after going 20-41 in first three. Divisional home favorites are 6-6 vs spread so far this season.

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NFL

Week 6

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Giants at 49ers: What bettors need to know
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New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

The San Francisco 49ers will be seeking revenge when they host the New York Giants on Sunday. San Francisco dropped a 20-17 overtime decision at home to New York in last season's NFL Championship game as Kyle Williams muffed two late punts, including one in the extra session that led to the Giants' game-winning field goal. The 49ers have been unstoppable since losing to Minnesota in Week 3, outscoring their opponents 79-3 in two victories.

The Giants, who rebounded from an early 14-0 deficit to trounce Cleveland 41-27 last Sunday, are going for their fourth win in five regular-season meetings with San Francisco. New York could be facing a pair of former teammates in running back Brandon Jacobs and wide receiver Mario Manningham, who both were allowed to leave as free agents. Jacobs, however, is questionable to make his 49ers debut due to a knee injury he suffered during the preseason.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: 49ers -6.5, O/U 45.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (3-2): Quarterback Eli Manning has passed for at least 200 yards in 24 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history. New York ranks second in the league with an average of 30.4 points. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw and wide receiver Victor Cruz became the first teammates to run for 200 yards and haul in three touchdown passes in a game since 1960. The Giants' defense has struggled, allowing an average of 22.2 points.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (4-1): San Francisco is tied for third in the league in scoring as it is averaging 29.8 points per game. It became the first team in NFL history to record 300 yards both passing and rushing in last Sunday's 45-3 rout of Buffalo. The 49ers gained a franchise-record 621 yards in the triumph. Quarterback Alex Smith suffered a sprained middle finger against the Bills but insists it won't affect him versus New York. San Francisco has allowed only one 100-yard rusher in its last 43 contests.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants’ last four road games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The home team has won each of the last three meetings and four of the last five.

2. New York has scored at least 36 points in each of its three wins while notching 17 in each of its two losses.

3. San Francisco has allowed a league-low 13.6 points per game this season.

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NFL

Week 6

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Sunday Night Football: Packers at Texans
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Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5, 47.5)

Even while maintaining their spotless record to open the season, the Houston Texans suffered a significant loss Monday night. They'll look to keep rolling without one of their top defenders as they welcome the high-octane Green Bay Packers to town Sunday evening. Houston will be without the services of Brian Cushing for the remainder of the season after the All-Pro linebacker suffered a torn knee ligament in Monday's narrow victory over the New York Jets.

Cushing's absence will provide the Texans with their stiffest test of the season, as they face a Packers team off to a miserable start but still capable of burning opposing defenses. Green Bay squandered an 18-point lead over the weekend, dropping a 30-27 decision to the host Indianapolis Colts. Aaron Rodgers appears to be rounding into form - having thrown seven touchdowns over his last two games - but the running game is now in limbo following a serious foot injury to primary back Cedric Benson.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Texans -3.5, O/U 47.5.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-3): Benson was placed on IR but given the "designated to return" tag, meaning he is eligible to come back in Week 14. Head coach Mike McCarthy believes Benson will return at some point during the season, but in the meantime the Packers will go with the "hot hand." Alex Green is expected to get the bulk of the carries against the Texans, with James Starks also seeing action. Wide receiver Greg Jennings did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss this week's game with a groin ailment.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (5-0): Cushing doesn't believe his season-ending injury has derailed the Texans' title aspirations. "WE are STILL winning THIS year's Super Bowl," he posted on his Facebook page. Nevertheless, his absence will put more pressure on a defense led by standout defensive lineman J.J. Watt, who leads the NFL with a whopping 8.5 sacks through the first five games of the season. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Packers offensive line that has surrendered 21 sacks so far, second-most in the NFL.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.
* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Packers’ last seven games following a loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Texans have been far more effective at protecting the quarterback than Green Bay, allowing a league-low three sacks to date.

2. Houston WR Andre Johnson caught eight passes for 119 yards and a score in Week 1, but has just nine total receptions in four games since.

3. Packers TE Jermichael Finley (shoulder) isn't expected to practice until at least Friday - if at all - and will likely be a game-time decision.


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NFL betting weather report: Wet and windy Week 6

Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 6 of the NFL season:

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 44.5)

The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium is calling for temperatures in the high 60s and winds blowing SSW – from sideline to sideline – at 13 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+1, 42.5)

It will be a windy Battle of Ohio at Cleveland Browns Stadium, with winds expected to reach speeds of 20 mph, blowing SSW from corner to corner. Temperatures will climb into the low 70s later in the game with a 59 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon.

St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-4.5, 37.5)

There is a 40 percent chance of rain, turning into thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s and winds are expected to blow ENE at 14 mph.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5, 44)

Winds will blow SW, across the field at MetLife Stadium, at speeds of 13 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s with a 24 percent chance of showers.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5, 44)

Rain is in the forecast for Seattle – surprise – with a 96 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures in the mid 60s in CenturyLink Field.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

The winds in the Bay Area are expected to blow west, from sideline to sideline, at speeds of 13 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 60s.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (Pick)

Winds are expected to blow SSW at 13 mph before settling down later in the evening. Temperatures will be in the high 60s.

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Handicapping the Buffalo Bills in Week 6

On the surface things don’t appear all that bad for the Buffalo Bills. They sit at 2-3, just a game out and tied with the Jets and Dolphins in a jumbled AFC East. Two early losses by the Patriots have prevented New England from establishing any kind of separation in the division.

But the Bills are hardly feeling good about themselves out in the desert as they ready to take on the Cardinals on Sunday. And you can’t blame them after the way they’ve gotten slapped around over the last five quarters, giving up 76 points in that span and scoring only 10.

Fact is, nothing much has gone right for the Bills since they went into Cleveland in Week 3 and played pretty well on both sides of the ball. Now they have a nasty road battle against a rested, first-place Arizona team (the Cards last played a week ago Thursday) still ticked about its loss to St. Louis.

Buffalo gets 4 with an O/U of 43.5 in this one, and the Bills will be trying to run the ball behind a banged-up offensive line against an Arizona defense that is ranked fourth in the league against the run. Not good. And Buffalo fans are still trying to make sense of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who followed up a four-interception game against New England by tossing for only 115 yards (zero TDs) in the 45-3 loss to the 49ers.

The Bills would dearly love to grind clock and try to catch a late break. That means lots of (hopefully productive) carries for 1 and A1 running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller who report that they are both healthy for the first time this season.

Any value in a play on the Bills?

Covers Expert Marc Lawrence has crunched some numbers and actually sees some daylight.

“Road dogs off back-to-back ATS losses of 20 or more are 17-6 ATS against opponents off a loss,"says Lawrence. He also notes that Arizona was outgained in all four of its four victories to open the season.

And another Covers Expert, Art Aronson, mentions that Arizona has injury problems of its own.

“This is probably going to be a considered a winnable game in the Bills locker room. I don’t hate taking the points. Arizona’s offensive line got shredded by the Rams.”

“The public looks at Buffalo and wonders why they are getting only 4 points after back-to-back beatings," adds Lawrence. "But those losses came against New England and San Francisco, the two leading contenders at the moment to make it to this year's Super Bowl.”

Jackson knows that the offense has to move the chains to give the defense half a chance.

“Our defense has taken a lot of heat,” Jackson told Buffalobills.com, “but...we scored three points last week. You are not going to beat a lot of people in this league scoring three points.”

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Top 5 NFL Trends



OAK
ATL

Under is 13-0 in OAK last 13 games in Week 6.



DAL
BAL

Under is 7-0 in DAL last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.



DEN
SD

SD are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.



OAK
ATL

Over is 6-0 in OAK last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.



NYG
SF

SF are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.

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Sunday's NFL Best Bets !Sunday, October 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +9.5 500
Atlanta - Under 48 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +4.5 500
Tampa Bay - Under 40 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -3.5 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 44 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati -2.5 500
Cleveland - Under 42 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +3.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 47.5 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET Miami -5 500
Miami - Over 37.5 500

Dallas - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -3 500
Baltimore - Over 44 500

Buffalo - 4:05 PM ET Buffalo +5 500
Arizona - Under 44.5 500

New England - 4:05 PM ET New England -3.5 500
Seattle - Over 43.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:25 PM ET San Francisco -7 500
San Francisco - Over 46 500

Minnesota - 4:25 PM ET Minnesota +0 500
Washington - Under 44 500

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Sunday Night Best Bets :


Green Bay - 8:20 PM ET Green Bay +3.5 500

Houston - Over 47 500

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RECENT TRENDS

Denver Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 vs. AFC West.
Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.

San Diego Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Head to Head Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Broncos are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Favorite is 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

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MNF - Broncos at Chargers

October 14, 2012

The AFC West is up for grabs this season, just like it has been for the past several years as the Chargers and Broncos wrap up the Week 6 card. Denver won this division last season with an 8-8 record, but with a former MVP at the helm this season, the Broncos look to reach the .500 mark with a victory while San Diego searches for consistency.

Peyton Manning hasn't thrown an interception in the last three contests, as Denver finally faces a team that is not a part of the NFL's elite. The Texans, Falcons, and Patriots each beat the Broncos through the first five weeks of the season, but Denver owns home victories over Pittsburgh and Oakland. The task for Manning and the Broncos this week is to not only win on the highway, but improve on a 2-3 ATS mark.

The latest loss for Denver came at New England, where the Broncos were eliminated from the playoffs in January in blowout fashion. This time around felt like the same old story with Manning under center instead of Tim Tebow, as Denver trailed, 31-7 with five minutes remaining in the third quarter. However, Manning rallied the Broncos back with a pair of touchdown passes, while even getting Denver in position to cover as 6 ½-point underdogs, but a Willis McGahee fumble in the red zone ending all hopes of the Broncos cashing as they fell, 31-21.

The Chargers return to Southern California after getting tripped up at previously winless New Orleans, 31-24 as 3 ½-point underdogs. San Diego led by 10 points in the third quarter, but former Charger Drew Brees burned his former team with four touchdown passes, including a pair to Marques Colston in the second half to finally give the Saints a win after four defeats. Philip Rivers finally busted the 300-yard barrier for the first time this season (354), while the Chargers have cashed the 'over' in three of the last four contests.

Norv Turner's club has split a pair of home games this season against the Titans and Falcons. Luckily for San Diego, the Chargers are a perfect 3-0 inside conference play, while winning each of their first two division contests against Oakland and Kansas City. In all three victories, the Lightning Bolts have allowed less than 20 points a game, as the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs have combined for just four victories in the first six weeks of the season.

The road team grabbed each meeting last season, but both games were decided by a total of eight points. San Diego went into Denver in September and picked up a front-door cover with a late Nick Novak field goal in a 29-24 victory as 3 ½-point favorites. Both starting running backs shined as McGahee and Ryan Mathews each logged 125 yards on the ground, but San Diego picked up its third consecutive win at Sports Authority Field.

The Tebow magic came out in the next matchup in San Diego one month later, as the Broncos erased a 10-0 deficit to force overtime and eventually beat the Chargers, 16-13 as 4 ½-point 'dogs. Matt Prater tied the game with a field goal late in regulation, then won it with another three-pointer in the final minute of overtime. McGahee (117) and Mathews (137) each ran wild again, as the Broncos captured their second victory in three tries in Southern California.

Dating back to his days with the Colts, Manning has lost five of his previous six games to the Chargers since 2005. The lone victory (both SU and ATS) came in San Diego back in 2008, a 23-20 triumph as three-point underdogs. Two of those defeats came in the postseason, including an overtime setback in the Wild Card round of the 2009 playoffs, 23-17.

The last time the Chargers played at home on a Monday night came against these Broncos in 2010, as San Diego routed Denver, 35-14 as 9 ½-point 'chalk.' In fact, the previous two times San Diego has played at Qualcomm Stadium under the Monday night lights, the Lightning Bolts have faced the Broncos, with Denver capturing an underdog win in 2009 to improve to 6-0 (the Broncos would win only two more games that season).

Manning was last showcased on Monday night in a Week 2 defeat at Atlanta, as the future Hall of Famer looked anything but with three interceptions in the opening quarter. The Falcons grabbed an early 20-0 advantage before holding off the Broncos, 27-21 as three-point favorites.

The Chargers are listed as one-point favorites, with several books setting the contest as a pick-em. The total sits at 47 ½, as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Qualcomm Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN.