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NFL Week 7 Preview: Steelers at Bengals

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-3)

at CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -1, Total: 45

The struggling Steelers look to get back to .500 when they visit division rival Cincinnati on Sunday night.

Pittsburgh has dominated this rivalry, sweeping the Bengals (SU and ATS) in each of the past two seasons. But the Steelers have been terrible on the road this year, dropping all three away games SU and ATS, including to bottom-feeders Tennessee and Oakland. Going back to last year, they’ve lost four road games in a row SU, and seven straight ATS. The Steelers could have OLB LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) back in the lineup, but they will be without RBs Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle), and also S Troy Polamalu (calf). The Bengals have moved the ball effectively this year, but QB Andy Dalton has become a turnover machine (11 through six games), resulting in upset losses in each of the past two weeks to Miami and Cleveland.

Which AFC North team will come out on top Sunday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

With both Mendenhall and Redman out, Jonathan Dwyer is expected to get the bulk of the rushing workload. But he's been pretty terrible in 2012, gaining just 70 yards on 24 carries (2.9 YPC) with one first down and one lost fumble. Backup Baron Batch may also get some touches, but he's been even worse than Dwyer with 34 yards on 16 carries (2.1 YPC). Due to this pair of uninspiring RB choices, the Steelers will likely take to the air with Ben Roethlisberger. The Pittsburgh signal caller is 9-2 in his past 11 starts versus Cincinnati, throwing for 2,445 yards, (222 YPG), 13 TD and 8 INT. Despite his team's struggles in 2012, Roethlisberger has played quite well, throwing for 297 YPG, 10 TD and just 2 INT. Defensively, the Steelers rank in the top-10 in both pass defense (201 YPG, 4th) and rush defense (95 YPG, 9th) despite a pedestrian 11 sacks and six turnovers this season.

Dalton had a rough series versus Pittsburgh last year, completing just 26-of-54 passes (48%) for 305 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT in both meetings combined. However, he currently has the best receiver in football at his disposal in A.J. Green. The second-year player leads the NFL with 628 receiving yards and his six receiving touchdowns are two more than any other AFC receiver. The Bengals have a subpar rushing offense though, ranking 21st in this category (99 YPG), including just 80 rushing YPG in two home games. But for this team to win, it knows that it has to better protect the football. In the past four games, Cincy has 11 turnovers, including seven in the past two weeks. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals rush defense has been excellent in the past three weeks, holding opponents to 82 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC. They have also held each of their past four opponents to less than 220 passing yards.

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NFL Week 7 Preview: Jets at Patriots

NEW YORK JETS (3-3)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -11, Total: 10.5

Bitter division rivals try to stay atop the mediocre AFC East when the Patriots host the Jets on Sunday.

The rivalry is as fierce as ever with these pair of 3-3 teams, though this year the Jets will be without Darrelle Revis to counter New England’s passing attack. The Patriots swept the Jets a year ago, including a 37-16 trouncing of Gang Green in MetLife Stadium. The teams were fairly even in offensive yardage (389-378 for New England) but the Pats forced three turnovers, including a pick six. The Jets took advantage of turnovers by the young Colts last week, but likely won’t have that luxury against the Pats. While they made mistakes in the penalty department last week (six for 80 yards), New England hasn’t had more than two giveaways in a game this year.

Can the Patriots win this rivalry game comfortably on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Mark Sanchez hasn't been very good this year (49.7% completions, 8 TD, 6 INT), but the Patriots have allowed at least 280 passing yards in each of their past four games. Sanchez will also have the services of both TE Dustin Keller and WR Stephen Hill, who both appear to be finally recovered from their hamstring injuries. If the Jets choose to try to sustain long drives by running the football, they have confidence in Shonn Greene, who is coming off a monster afternoon against the Colts, rushing for 161 yards and three touchdowns on 32 carries. Greene expects another heavy workload considering his top two backups are both out -- Bilal Powell (shoulder) and Joe McKnight (ankle). QB Tim Tebow is also expected to carry the football a handful of times when Greene needs a breather. The Jets defense was tremendous in last week's win over Indianapolis, holding the Colts to 41 yards on 17 carries and forcing four turnovers. However, in last year's two meetings, they only forced one New England miscue and surrendered 67 points and 835 total yards of offense.

Patriots QB Tom Brady is 16-5 in his career versus the Jets throwing for 5,055 yards (241 YPG), 30 TD and just 11 INT. He's also coming off a career-most 58 passing attempts, when he threw for 395 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT in a 24-23 loss in Seattle. Wes Welker had another huge afternoon with 10 catches for 138 yards, giving him 622 receiving yards (2nd in NFL) this season. New England was unable to run the football effectively last week (87 yards on 26 carries), but it has 498 rushing yards in the previous two games. Also, the Jets have been terrible in stopping the run all season, ranking 28th in the league with 151 rushing YPG allowed. Speaking of rushing defenses, New England has held each of its past three opponents under 100 rushing yards, and

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NFL Week 7 Preview: Redskins at Giants

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-2)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (4-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York Giants -6, Total: 51

The Giants seek a third straight win and fifth victory in the past six contests when they host Robert Griffin III and the high-flying Redskins on Sunday.

Griffin gets his first taste of an athletic Giants front that's coming off their best game of the season. Griffin has torched the defenses he's faced so far, including 182 passing yards, 138 rushing yards and three total touchdowns in a 38-26 victory over the Vikings last week. The Giants' vaunted front four had struggled before dominating in San Francisco last week. The Giants recorded six sacks and intercepted Alex Smith three times while holding the Niners to three points. The Redskins swept the Giants last year, winning each game by two possessions.

Which NFC East team will prevail on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Griffin has been a monster rushing the football, leading all quarterbacks with 379 rushing yards and 6 TD. He also has the league's best completion percentage at 70.2 percent, and expects to be able to throw the football against New York's 21st-ranked pass defense (257 YPG) that has allowed at least 225 passing yards in every game this year. With help from RB Alfred Morris (538 rush yds, 4th in NFL), the Redskins rank second in the NFL with 166 rushing YPG. Although the Giants held San Francisco to 80 rushing yards last week, they are a mediocre 16th in rushing defense this season at 106 YPG allowed. Washington's offense has done a great job keeping turnovers to a minimum with just five giveaways in six games, while the defense has forced multiple miscues in five of six games.

The Giants are 2-5 all-time in division games at MetLife Stadium. Manning (1,772 pass yds, 3rd in NFL) expects to throw early and often on Sunday, especially with top RB Ahmad Bradshaw slowed by a foot injury. Bradshaw has 316 rushing yards in the past two games, but Washington has the league's 8th-best run stop unit (89 YPG). The Redskins' NFL-worst pass defense could have trouble with the Giants excellent receiving corps led by Victor Cruz (496 rec. yds, 6 TD), Domenik Hixon (314 rec. yds) and Hakeem Nicks, whose knee finally appears to be 100 percent. The Giants defense has been outstanding in creating opportunities for the offense this year with 14 takeaways in six games, including three in each of the past two contests.

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NFL Week 7 Preview: Ravens at Texans

BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-1)

at HOUSTON TEXANS (5-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -6.5, Total: 48.5

The banged-up Ravens go for a fifth straight win when they visit the Texans on Sunday.

The Ravens are scraping by, winning four in a row SU while failing to cover in any of those games (winning by a combined total of 13 points). Now, they’ll be without two of their key defensive players for the rest of the year: LB Ray Lewis (triceps) and CB Lardarius Webb (ACL). Baltimore beat Houston twice last season, but both those games were at home. The Texans fell apart early last week, keeping two Packers drives alive with special teams penalties on fourth down, and having to throw away their game plan after trailing big. The Ravens' new up-tempo offense has generated just 298 and 316 yards of offense the past two games.

Will the Texans avenge last year's playoff loss to the Ravens? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco has enjoyed facing the Texans in the past, throwing for an average of 213 YPG with 6 TD and 1 INT. WR Anquan Boldin has been on fire in the past three weeks with 18 catches for 311 yards. He has also had great success in this series with 30 catches for 461 yards and 2 TD in five career meetings with Houston. RB Ray Rice has also done some damage to Houston in the past three meetings, all within the last 22 months, totaling 361 yards (120 per game) in this three-game span. Although OLB Terrell Suggs says he's ready to return from his Achilles injury suffered in the preseason, it is highly unlikely that he'll be in uniform on Sunday. DT Haloti Ngata also suffered a knee injury last week, but he does expect to start. Although the Ravens have allowed 441 rushing yards in the past two weeks, they also have seven turnovers in this span, giving them 13 for the six-game season.

The Texans figure to employ a heavy rushing attack on Sunday. Not only do they have the sixth-best running game in the NFL (134 YPG) led by Arian Foster (561 rush yds, 7 TD), but they are facing an injury-riddled Ravens defense that just allowed a franchise-worst 227 rushing yards to an average Dallas ground game on Sunday. Foster compiled 132 rushing yards and a touchdown in last year's playoffs defeat in Baltimore. However, Houston's ground game stalled last week with just 90 yards on 28 carries. QB Matt Schaub has been scuffling in the past two games (1 TD, 3 INT), but the one career home game he had versus Baltimore, he threw the ball 62 times for 393 yards and three touchdowns. Houston's defense has held five of six opponents under 100 rushing yards, but was lit up for 328 passing yards and six touchdowns by Aaron Rodgers last week. Star CB Johnathan Joseph (groin) and S Quintin Demps (forearm) are both questionable for Sunday's game.

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NFL Week 7 Preview: Lions at Bears

DETROIT LIONS (2-3)

at CHICAGO BEARS (4-1)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -6.5, Total: 47.5

The red-hot Bears look for a fourth straight win (SU and ATS) when they host a Lions team that earned just its first ATS victory of the season last week.

The Lions haven't won SU in Chicago since 2007 and are 3-11 (7-7 ATS) in this series since 2005. They were blown out at Soldier Field a year ago, a game in which the Lions turned it over six times in a 37-13 Bears rout. Detroit's M.O. this year has been to fall behind before opening up the offense and coming back (their two wins were last-second over St. Louis in Week 1, and in OT at Philly last week), but that would be more of a challenge against a Bears defense that gives up few big plays and forces a lot of turnovers. Chicago has two convincing wins at home this year (23-6 over St. Louis and 41-21 over Indy) and has 17 takeaways through five games.

Which NFC North rival will earn the win on Monday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Matthew Stafford has been pretty poor this season with a 79.2 passer rating (6.8 YPA, 4 TD, 5 INT), but his team still ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (320 YPG). Stafford has been downright horrible in three career games at Chicago, completing just 59.6% of his passes for 708 yards (6.2 YPA), 2 TD and 5 INT, including four picks last year. The good news is that the ground game has been strong in the past two road contests, piling up 139.5 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC. Mikel Leshoure has 170 rushing yards on 4.1 YPC in his two road contests. Defensively, Detroit has been pretty strong since allowing 44 points in an overtime loss in Tennessee. In two games since, the Lions have surrendered just 292 total YPG and forced three Eagles turnovers in last week's 26-23 overtime win. For the season, the Lions rank 11th in rushing defense (96 YPG) and 16th against the pass (228 YPG).

The Bears have destroyed three straight opponents by a combined score of 98-27, with the defense scoring a ridiculous five touchdowns on interception returns over this three-game span. They also have the league's best rushing defense (66 YPG), holding the past three opponents to 53 rushing YPG on 3.3 YPC. Offensively, Chicago is rushing the ball very well (124 YPG, 10th in NFL), but hasn't been too efficient in the passing game (223 YPG, 23rd in league). QB Jay Cutler has a subpar 78.7 passer rating, completing just 57.7% of his passes with 7 TD and 7 INT. However, he has dominated the Lions since joining Chicago, completing 67% of his passes for 1,395 yards (233 YPG), 10 TD and 1 INT in six games, leading his team to victory in five of those six meetings.

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Week 7 Tips

October 19, 2012

It has been a big season for the underdogs in the NFL, cashing at a 64% rate against the spread. Following last week’s 12-2 ATS run, many bettors are skeptical that this recent trend will continue heading into Week 7. The league seems to be more even than in years’ past, as only two teams in the AFC own winning records after six weeks (Ravens and Texans). Road favorites off a victory have struggled this season, owning a dreadful 5-15 ATS and 7-13 SU record, including SU/ATS losses by New England, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota last week.

All three clubs threw away a lead of seven points or more, including the Patriots squandering a 13-point advantage in the final quarter. Seattle rallied past New England with a pair of touchdowns in the final seven minutes of regulation to shock the Pats, 24-23 as 3 ½-point home ‘dogs. The Steelers overcame a six-point deficit to lead Tennessee, 23-16 in the fourth quarter, but the Titans came back with 10 unanswered points to beat Pittsburgh, 26-23. Minnesota grabbed an early 9-0 advantage at Washington, but the Redskins outscored the Vikings, 38-17 in the last three quarters to cash as one-point home ‘dogs.

We’ll take a look at the two teams in this potential ‘fade’ situation this week, the Packers and Saints. Green Bay heads to St. Louis, while New Orleans comes off the bye to battle Tampa Bay, as each team has failed to cash when laying points on the highway this season.

Packers (-5 ½, 45) at Rams – 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay rebounded from a disappointing loss at Indianapolis two weeks ago to beat Houston soundly as a road ‘dog last Sunday. The Pack attempts to break above the .500 mark with a victory over the Rams, who also sit at 3-3 through six games. The key for St. Louis is to slow down this powerful Green Bay offense, which lit up a solid Texans’ defense.

Aaron Rodgers tossed six touchdown passes as the Packers shredded the Texans, 42-24 as four-point road underdogs, handing Houston its first loss of the season. Green Bay covered only its second game in six tries, while doing so in its first underdog opportunity of 2012. The offense is finally clicking following a slow start the first three weeks, as the Packers have eclipsed the 27-point mark in each of the last three contests, while cashing the ‘over’ three straight times.

The Rams were held to below 19 points for the fourth consecutive game last Sunday in a 17-14 defeat at Miami, but St. Louis managed to cash as five-point ‘dogs. St. Louis heads into this week’s action with a sizzling 5-1 ATS record, including a 3-0 SU/ATS mark at Edward Jones Dome (all as an underdog). The key for St. Louis’ success at home is limiting its last two opponents (Arizona and Seattle) to 16 points combined. However, both the Cardinals and Seahawks rank in the bottom seven of the league in points scored, while the Packers are averaging 25.7 ppg (10th in NFL).

The Packers have actually profited when laying points on the highway in the Mike McCarthy era, posting a 16-13 ATS ledger. However, two of those losses came this season at Seattle and Indianapolis, both games decided in the final minute of play.

Saints (-2 ½, 49 ½) at Buccaneers - 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans is fresh off the bye, going for its first two-game winning streak of the season after rallying past San Diego in Week 5 at home. The Saints head to Tampa Bay, who goes for its third home victory of the season in four tries following a blowout of a dysfunctional Kansas City squad last Sunday.

The Bucs were a missed field goal away from being a perfect 3-0 at home, as Greg Schiano's club has cashed in all three opportunities in the underdog role this season. Granted, two of those ATS victories came in road losses to the Giants and Cowboys as 'dogs of a touchdown or more, but Tampa Bay has allowed 24 points or less in four of five games this season. Since Jon Gruden departed as head coach, the Bucs have covered only four of 10 home games against division opponents, as one of those wins came against the Saints last season as a 6 ½-point 'dogs.

The Saints aren't the best team to back in the road favorite role since 2010, cashing five of 15 times. One of those losses came at Carolina in Week 2, falling as a three-point favorite, 35-27, while posting a 1-3 ATS record when laying points this season. New Orleans can point to its defense for a majority of its problems in 2012, giving up 24 points in each of its five games, as the 'over' sits at 4-1. However, each of the last seven meetings between the Saints and Bucs have hit the 'under.'

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Total Talk - Week 7

October 20, 2012

Week 6 Recap

The 2012 NFL season has been all about the underdogs when it comes to sides but totals haven’t seen a strong lean either way. Despite watching the ‘over’ go 9-4-1 last week, the ‘over’ barely holds a slight edge (46-44-1) on the season. And if it wasn’t for plenty of second-half explosions this season, the ‘under’ would be ahead. Last week, total players saw two ‘under’ tickets get burned in the final two quarters.

The Buccaneers led the Chiefs 7-3 at halftime but the two teams combined for 38 points in the second and two of the scores were defensive touchdowns. Take away those points and the game goes ‘under’ the closing total of 38.

Even though Philadelphia and Detroit combined for 11 scores (7 FGs), the Eagles only led 7-6 at halftime over the Lions and only six points were posted in the third quarter. Fortunately for ‘over’ bettors, a couple big plays and key kicks sent the game into overtime and the combined 49 points barely slipped ‘over’ the total of 46 ½.

Total System Play

Readers following this column over the years on a regular basis are well aware of the “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. Even though the system went 4-3 (57%) in 2011, the system has gone 31-15-2 (67%) over the last eight seasons. This year, the system only comes into play twice and the first matchup goes this weekend.

Green Bay at St. Louis: The Packers will be playing their third straight road game this Sunday when it visits St. Louis. Green Bay has watched the ‘over’ cash in each of the last two games but the Rams have seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive outings. The number opened at 44 and jumped to 45 quickly. Most would expect the Packers to get a minimum of four scores in this spot, especially after watching them drop 42 on a solid Houston defense last week. However, can the Rams help the cause? It’s hard to answer yes when you realize that St. Louis has 15 field goals and only eight offensive touchdowns.

Clear-Cut Under?

Two other teams in the NFL that have more field goals than offensive touchdowns are Arizona and Minnesota. Should we be surprised that the Vikings (4-2) and Cardinals (5-1) have a combined ‘under’ record of 9-3? This week, the two teams meet indoors from the Metrodome and the total is hovering around 40 points. Minnesota allowed 38 points to Washington last week but 14 came from a defensive touchdown and a busted run by quarterback RG3. The Cardinals have only scored a combined 23 points in two road games and the Vikings have only given up 23, 13 and 7 in three home games. It’s a low number but it’s low for a good reason too.

Line Moves

The smart money went 0-2-1 with their total moves in Week 6. Below are the Week 7 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday night.

Baltimore at Houston: Line opened at 47 and jumped to 48 ½
Washington at N.Y. Giants: Line opened at 49 and jumped to 51
Jacksonville at Oakland: Line opened 42 ½ and jumped to 44

Divisional Battles

Washington at N.Y. Giants: Highest total (51) on the board here and you could be scratching your head based on recent history. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four, plus the combined points have never been higher than 42. Things have certainly changed this season! The Redskins (5-1) are a clear-cut ‘over’ team behind a solid offense (30.7 PPG) and weak defense (28.3 PPG). New York has both a better offense (33 PPG) and defense (19 PPG). However, the Giants have surrendered 24, 34 and 27 points in their three home games.

N.Y. Jets at New England: All signs point to an ‘over’ look here, even though the total is 47 ½ points. The Patriots have put up 30-plus points in four of their six games. The ‘over’ has gone 4-2 for New England. The Jets have busted 20-points three times this season but those instances came against teams with losing records. Against quality clubs (including Pittsburgh), the Jets have scored 10, 0 and 17 points. The ‘over’ has gone 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers (3-2) and Bengals (4-2) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and that’s probably why gamblers are staring at a total of 45. These teams haven’t seen an ‘over/under’ this high since they met in October of 2007 (48). Pittsburgh’s defense is normally considered stout but the unit has allowed 31, 34 and 26 on the road, all three easy ‘over’ tickets.

Under the Lights

For the first time all season, gamblers saw all three primetime games go ‘over’ the number. The Titans-Steelers matchup on Thursday started fast and slowed down but a 20-point fourth quarter helped the ‘over’ cash. Overall, the ‘under’ stands at 13-7 on the season in games played in primetime spots and that includes this past Thursday’s game between Seattle and San Francisco.

Fearless Predictions

We took a couple steps backwards last week with our straight bets and teaser but were fortunate to hit the team total wager. Despite losing $220, we’re up $130 after five weeks and looking to add to the bankroll this weekend. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Green Bay-St. Louis 44 1/2

Best Under: Cleveland-Indianapolis 46

Best Team Total: Under New York Jets 18 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 35 1/2 Green Bay-St. Louis
Over 42 Washington-New York Giants
Under 54 1/2 Pittsburgh-Cincinnati

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Gridiron Angles - Week 7

October 20, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 11-0 ATS (14.3 ppg) since December 06, 1999 as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Browns are 0-10 OU (-13.2 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after a game where they covered despite allowing more points than expected.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Oklahoma is 12-0-2 ATS (11.4 ppg) since 2003 when facing a team they allowed between 14 and 17 points to last meeting and scored less than 58.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Army is 0-13 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since November 2003 in the regular season when they allowed between 30 and 35 points last game and have at least two losses on the year.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams which faced at least 40 rushes their past two games are 64-38-3 (62.7%). Active on Baltimore vs. Houston.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Cowboys are 17-0 OU (+11.3 ppg) since December 18th, 2005 when they are off a game vs an AFC opponent in which they scored more than 20 points, as long as they did not lose the game by two-plus TDs.

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Las Vegas Money Moves

October 19, 2012

The Seattle Seahawks seem to be involved in every dicey situation Las Vegas sports books have had to deal with this season. In Week 3, we had the questionable touchdown call against the Packers that gave the Seahawks the win and cover, while Thursday night we had a Seahawks safety smartly declined by 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh.

Two additional points for the 49ers would have meant instead of being a 13-6 score, and a non-cover, it would have been 15-6 with almost everyone covering.

The funny part about all of this is that bettors could have had at least a push in the Thursday night game laying the 49ers if they would have made a bet prior to Thursday. The game had been up on the board since Sunday night, and was -7 through Wednesday. 7.5’s didn’t start popping up until Thursday morning.

Once it was clear that the public was still betting the 49ers on game day at 7 ½, it didn’t take long for bookmakers like Jay Kornegay at the LVH Super Book to bypass the dead number of 8 and go right to 8.5.

So yeah, it was a bad beat, but if you lost on the 49ers laying 7 ½, you were late to the party, and if you made a straight bet at -7 ½, you should have paid the extra .10 cents and erased the hook. And I’m not just saying that now after the fact. Seven lands the second most time out of any margin of victory in the NFL at a 9.6 percent clip over the past five seasons.

When dealing with three -- the most common margin of victory (14.5%), most sports books won’t allow you to buy off it because it’s so key. So being able to buy a half off such a key number like seven for only .10 cents is pretty good value.

And really, was the decision that bad of a beat? It would have taken a bad beat to make a 49ers bet a winner. What about the Seahawks bettors who had the right side all game? The 49ers weren’t even covering in this game at any juncture and were outplayed.

If anything, your prayer to the cover Gods was heard, and almost fulfilled, but at the last second, even they thought a cover like a safety in a game with less than minute remaining, where the team favored by 8.5 is winning 13-6 was too much of a miracle to make happen.

The end result in Vegas wasn’t that big of a deal, not even close to exaggerated reports that surfaced in Week 3 when some 'experts' reported that $15 million changed hands as a result of the bad call on the Packers-Seahawks.

Most of the bets from the week were a push with the Thursday 49ers money losing. Sports books on the strip aren’t full like they will be on the weekend, and didn’t take a lot of action. Most of all, the game stayed UNDER the total which was good for the books.

Here’s a look at some of the moves from Week 7:

-- The game of the week looks to be the Jets at the Patriots, just because Rex Ryan does all the promoting like Don King with all his wild predictions. He did say the Jets would beat the Patriots, but what’s new? He says it all the time and he’s been right three of the seven games they’ve played. But Las Vegas isn’t buying the hype and opened Ryan as 12-point underdogs, the highest number ever placed on his Jets while being the coach. Sharp money bet the game down to 10.5, while small money has bet the Patriots with whatever line was available. The Mirage had the lowest number at -10 on Thursday, but are back up to -10 ½.

-- The Bills opened as 3-point home favorites against the Titans and have been bet up -3 ½ (-120), mostly because the Titans have been so bad on the road this season.

-- The Vikings were initially 4 ½-point home favorites against the Cardinals, but the combination of Kevin Kolb being out and the Vikings impressing bettors this season has moved the line up to 6 ½.

-- The Browns were getting +3 on the road at Indianapolis, but it didn’t last long as bettors jumped on the key number of three and took the points. The Colts are currently -2 ½ (EV).

-- The Texans moved from an opener of -5 at home to -6 ½ against the Ravens, who will be without Ray Lewis. The bigger blow to the Ravens is losing defensive back Ladarius Webb.

-- The Packers have remained 5 ½-point road favorites at St. Louis with lots of respect given to the Rams, who are 3-0 straight-up at home this season as an underdog.

-- The Cowboys were initially Pick ’em at Carolina, but the line quickly moved to Cowboys -2 ½.

-- The Redskins beat the Giants in both games last season, which may be why bettors found the Redskins +7 so attractive and pushed the game down to 6.

-- The Raiders opened as 4 ½-point home favorites against the Jaguars and are currently -4.

-- The Steelers opened -2 ½ at Cincinnati and have been moved to -1 ½. Ben Roethlisberger injured his ankle in practice, but what’s new, that thing has been injured for five years.

The sports books have the potential of getting beat up pretty good this week because there are only two afternoon games, with one them being the perennial public favorite New England Patriots. With less options in the afternoon, that game takes on more of a Sunday or Monday night appeal where almost every dollar bet in the afternoon will be wagered on that game. Patriots to the OVER will have the same bad affect as an isolated night game.

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Sunday's NFL Best Bets !!

NFL

Sunday, October 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +6.5 500
N.Y. Giants - Under 51.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota -7 500
Minnesota - Under 40 500

Dallas - 1:00 PM ET Dallas -1 500
Carolina - Under 45 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +1 500
Tampa Bay - Over 49.5 500

Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +4.5 500
St. Louis - Over 45 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +7 500
Houston - Over 48 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -1 500
Indianapolis - Over 46.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo -4 500 AFC GOM
Buffalo - Under 46.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:25 PM ET N.Y. Jets +10.5 500
New England - Under 47 500

Jacksonville - 4:25 PM ET Oakland -6 500
Oakland - Under 44 500


Check Later For Sunday Night Football Pick & MLB Pick...

GOOD LUCK !

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NFL weather watch: Pleasant conditions expected Sunday

Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 7 of the NFL season:

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 46.5)

Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from the west at 14 mph.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6, 51)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 12 mph.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5, 47.5)

Site: Gillette Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s under clear skies. Westerly winds are expected to blow at 12 mph.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6, 43.5)

Site: O. co Coliseum

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s under partly cloudy skies with an increasing chance of a shower in the late afternoon hours. Winds will blow out of the west at 11 mph

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Sunday Night NFL Best Bets:


Pittsburgh - 8:20 PM ET Cincinnati +1 500

Cincinnati - Under 45.5 500

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MNF - Lions at Bears

October 21, 2012

The Bears have put last season's disappointing December behind them as Chicago looks to take full control of the NFC North with a win on Monday night. The Lions head to Soldier Field trying to crawl back in the division race following a comeback victory at Philadelphia in overtime last Sunday.

Lovie Smith's club has lost only one game all season, coming at Green Bay back in Week 2. Since that defeat, the Bears are riding a three-game winning streak, including double-digit victories over St. Louis, Dallas, and Jacksonville. Prior to the bye week, the Bears dominated the Jaguars as six-point road favorites, putting up 38 second-half points in a 41-3 blowout. Chicago's defense continues to dominate by returning five interceptions for touchdowns in the past three weeks, contributing to consecutive 'overs' in the last two victories.

Detroit began this season with high expectations following a Wild Card appearance in 2011, but the Lions stumbled to a 1-3 start. Jim Schwartz's squad failed to cash in all four games in September, including three as a favorite against the Rams, Titans, and Vikings. The Lions finally broke through for backers in a 26-23 triumph over the Eagles in Week 6, as Detroit overcame a 10-point deficit to cash outright as 3 ½-point 'dogs. Detroit's offense put up 449 yards in the win, including 313 through the air from Matthew Stafford.

The Bears have owned the Lions over the last few seasons, beating Detroit in seven of the previous eight meetings. The only victory for Detroit in this stretch came last October at Ford Field, as the Lions improved to 5-0 with a 24-13 win as 6 ½-point favorites. Stafford tossed two touchdowns, while Jahvid Best's 88-yard touchdown scamper put the game away for Lions, who snapped a six-game skid to the Bears dating back to 2007.

Chicago rebounded a month later by routing Detroit, 37-13 as 2 ½-point 'chalk' on a late Sunday November afternoon at Soldier Field. The Bears received three non-offensive touchdowns, including an 82-yard punt return for a score by Devin Hester, while returning two Stafford interceptions for touchdowns. Chicago mustered only 216 yards of offense, but its defense kept Detroit out of the end zone until five minutes remaining in the contest.

Detroit has cashed the 'over' in two of three games away from Ford Field this season, while 'pushing' in a Week 2 loss at San Francisco. Chicago has eclipsed the 34-point mark in three of five games, including a 41-point spot in a season-opening blowout of Indianapolis. Three of the last four meetings in the Windy City have hit the 'over,' as Chicago's rout of Detroit last November went 'over' the 42 ½ point number posted.

In Smith's tenure as coach of the Bears, Chicago owns an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS mark in Monday night games, including the Week 4 rout at Dallas. The Bears have never lost a home Monday nighter under Smith, winning all three times, but the lone non-cover came as a favorite against Green Bay in 2008. Detroit is playing in only its second Monday night contest since 2008, with the other game coming in last season's 11-point win over Chicago.

Following a 5-1 ATS run against division foes in 2010, the Lions have covered only one of their last seven games inside the NFC North, including an 0-3 ATS record away from Detroit. Under Schwartz, the Lions have covered five consecutive times off a straight-up underdog victory, including outright wins at Tampa Bay and Miami back in 2010.

The Bears are listed as 6 ½-point favorites on Monday night, with the potential of the game moving to seven by kickoff. The total is set at 47, as the temperature will be in the low 60's with a 60% chance of rain. Things get started at 8:40 PM EST from Soldier Field as the game can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Public wins big!

October 22, 2012

Everyone loves leftover Turkey for sandwiches after Thanksgiving and sometimes lasagna even tastes better the next day, but in the sport book business, leftovers are about as sour a taste as there is during a football season.

On Sunday, sports book directors across Las Vegas had a refrigerator full of leftovers from Saturday. Bettors had shredded the books with most of the top-10 ranked college football teams covering, sending the books to their worst day on the football season, both college and pro.

However, the impact of those games just doesn’t end on Saturday when the final game is posted. Large parlays were just simmering for a few hours waiting for a few public favorites Sunday to cash in six, seven, eight, and even 10-team parlays.

"It’s a little rough right now," LVH Super Book vice-president Jay Kornegay said late Sunday afternoon after the first 10 games had posted. "We had a lot of liability left over in parlays from Saturday that carried over into today."

"We felt like we were in a hole before the day even started."

That hole would get even bigger for the books as the day went on. The books needed the Panthers, Rams, Redskins, and Buccaneers to cover during the first eight games of the early session to wipe out a large portion of all the Saturday leftovers, but were only able to get the Redskins in. So not only were they losing the final legs of parlays that started Saturday, but they were also getting pummeled on game day wagers as well.

Kornegay didn’t have some of the parlay card exposure at his book like some of local properties did, but enough damage was done off the board at his book to make the public’s presence felt.

There were a few a few reports elsewhere of 10-team parlays at 800-to-1 odds cashing with seven to eight games in the bag from Saturday’s popular games that rolled into the Saints, Packers, and Texans on Sunday.

The favorites went 6-2 against-the-spread early on and it was the way that some of games ended that had the books knowing that Sunday wasn’t going to have a happy ending.

“The Cowboys game was disappointing,” Kornegay said. “A two-point win would have been good for us, but the late field goal kind of went in line with the rest of the day.”

The biggest blow came when the Saints beat the Buccaneers 35-28 as 1.5-point favorites, even though there was some sharp money on the Bucs. The Saints game was the last of the eight early games to be posted and was a massive loss after all the parlays had been calculated.

There were only two afternoon games which could have been a recipe for disaster because of so few options for bettors to choose from, but both went the books way with the Jets covering -- but losing 29-26 -- at New England, and the Jaguars covering six points at Oakland in a 26-23 loss.

The good news for the sports books was that the Jets wiped away every existing teaser on the day and also killed a huge lingering pot of parlays that were waiting for the Patriots to win by 11 to cash. The bad news is that the day would get worse.

"We needed the Bengals tonight," Kornegay said just before kickoff of the Sunday night game. "If they don’t cover, I don’t even want to look at the Monday night risk on the Bears-Lions game where all four scenarios (favorite-over, favorite-under, dog-over, dog-under) are going to be losers."

The Steelers won, 24-17 and capped the day as a big winner for the public. But this weekend still isn’t over, because of the Monday night game when anything leftover from Saturday and Sunday will be paid out. With huge parlay payout odds ready to pop, there isn’t much a sports book can do other than prepare their bosses for another losing day so they’re not startled on Tuesday morning.

Chalk one up for the public for a job well done. Their big day was inevitable as things always cycle around, but it was starting to look bleak. However, they stayed the course and were finally rewarded with a big day. You can quite while your ahead, but public has a long ways to go this season before that happens.

Grand Slam of Golf
The LVH is offering odds on the PGA Grand Slam of Golf which will be played Tuesday and Wednesday in Bermuda. The contestants are all the winners of this year's Grand Slam events. Bubba Watson, Keegan Bradley, and Webb Simpson are all 5-to-2 co-favorites, while the Padraig Harrington is 3-to-1.

LVH Games of the Year
I love how the crew at the LVH has been updating their college games of the year all season. We saw Alabama as high as 8.5 last week for their November 3 game at LSU and this week they are 6.5. Oregon is still -2.5 for their November 3 road game at USC and are also 17-point favorites for their games against Cal and Stanford.

On November 24, we have a bunch of huge games with Ohio State -4.5 at home against Michigan, while Florida State is 3.5-point home favorites against Florida and USC is -6 at home against Notre Dame.

Rodeo Kings
Jay Rood has been offering odds on the PBR at MGM Resort sports books for as long as I can remember. The PBR welcomed the odds, actually sending public relations material and offering insider help to talk with Rood and current Aria supervisor Marcus Hurd so they put up solid numbers.

Hurd, from Lubbock, Texas, had long been a rodeo fan growing up with it, and it fell in line with several of the odds they offered on events taking place at their arena’s like SuperCross, odds that no one else in town was offering.

However, the one thing always missing was the National Finals Rodeo. For some reason, the NFR had always asked Las Vegas not to book odds on their events and every sports book obliged. But rumor has it that the NFR has opened their arms up a little bit to the gambling aspect, the same way NHRA drag racing has when they come to town twice a year, including this week.

With the NFR’s approval, odds to win all-around cowboy will be a massive wagering event. The cowboys that roll through Vegas in December aren’t your run of the mill honkey-tonkers with a couple of single dollar bills in their front pocket locking for bargains. They come strapped with endless loads of cash and every intention of gambling it in some form with their win-loss determined by the end of the 10-day event.

The only problem is getting them to know wagering is available since they’ve been trained for almost two decades that there is no odds offered on the NFR. Somehow, I have to believe news will spread quickly among their circles that wagers can be made.

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NFL Week 7 Preview: Lions at Bears

DETROIT LIONS (2-3)

at CHICAGO BEARS (4-1)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -6.5, Total: 47.5

The red-hot Bears look for a fourth straight win (SU and ATS) when they host a Lions team that earned just its first ATS victory of the season last week.

The Lions haven't won SU in Chicago since 2007 and are 3-11 (7-7 ATS) in this series since 2005. They were blown out at Soldier Field a year ago, a game in which the Lions turned it over six times in a 37-13 Bears rout. Detroit's M.O. this year has been to fall behind before opening up the offense and coming back (their two wins were last-second over St. Louis in Week 1, and in OT at Philly last week), but that would be more of a challenge against a Bears defense that gives up few big plays and forces a lot of turnovers. Chicago has two convincing wins at home this year (23-6 over St. Louis and 41-21 over Indy) and has 17 takeaways through five games.

Which NFC North rival will earn the win on Monday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Matthew Stafford has been pretty poor this season with a 79.2 passer rating (6.8 YPA, 4 TD, 5 INT), but his team still ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (320 YPG). Stafford has been downright horrible in three career games at Chicago, completing just 59.6% of his passes for 708 yards (6.2 YPA), 2 TD and 5 INT, including four picks last year. The good news is that the ground game has been strong in the past two road contests, piling up 139.5 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC. Mikel Leshoure has 170 rushing yards on 4.1 YPC in his two road contests. Defensively, Detroit has been pretty strong since allowing 44 points in an overtime loss in Tennessee. In two games since, the Lions have surrendered just 292 total YPG and forced three Eagles turnovers in last week's 26-23 overtime win. For the season, the Lions rank 11th in rushing defense (96 YPG) and 16th against the pass (228 YPG).

The Bears have destroyed three straight opponents by a combined score of 98-27, with the defense scoring a ridiculous five touchdowns on interception returns over this three-game span. They also have the league's best rushing defense (66 YPG), holding the past three opponents to 53 rushing YPG on 3.3 YPC. Offensively, Chicago is rushing the ball very well (124 YPG, 10th in NFL), but hasn't been too efficient in the passing game (223 YPG, 23rd in league). QB Jay Cutler has a subpar 78.7 passer rating, completing just 57.7% of his passes with 7 TD and 7 INT. However, he has dominated the Lions since joining Chicago, completing 67% of his passes for 1,395 yards (233 YPG), 10 TD and 1 INT in six games, leading his team to victory in five of those six meetings.