The Bum's NFL October Best Bets !

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MNF - Texans at Jets

October 7, 2012

The Texans have rolled through all four of their opponents as Houston looks for the first 5-0 start in franchise history on Monday night. The Week 5 card closes out at Met Life Stadium in New Jersey, as the Texans take on a dysfunctional Jets' squad that still has a chance to go above .500 with a victory.

Rex Ryan's club is missing its top offensive weapon in Santonio Holmes, as the former Super Bowl MVP suffered a season-ending foot injury in last Sunday's 34-0 home defeat to the 49ers. The worst part about losing Holmes was the timing of the injury with the Jets already down 17-0 when the receiver fumbled and taken back for a touchdown to put the game away. San Francisco cashed as 3 ½-point road favorites, while the Jets were limited to just nine first downs and 145 yards offensively.

The question heading into Monday night is how much longer will Mark Sanchez remain the starting quarterback for the Jets? The ex-USC standout is completing just 49% of his passes, while connecting on only two touchdowns in the last three games, following a three-touchdown performance in the opening week blowout of the Bills. The 48 points scored against Buffalo may seem like a huge fraud as 14 of these points came from the defense and special teams, as the Jets have scored 33 points the last three contests.

While the Tim Tebow rumors swirl around the Jets, the Texans have no questions at their quarterback position with Matt Schaub completing 67% of his passes, while owning a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7/1. Houston has scored at least 27 points in all four victories, including a season-high 38 points in last Sunday's 24-point rout of Tennessee to easily cash as 13-point favorites. Three of Houston's four wins have come by at least 20 points, while in the victory over Denver in Week 3, the Texans held a 20-point advantage late in the third quarter before holding off the Broncos by six points.

New York's secondary took a major hit when Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis tore his ACL in a Week 3 overtime victory at Miami, as the Jets allowed 379 yards to San Francisco. When Revis missed the Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh with a concussion, Ben Roethlisberger shredded the Jets' defense for 275 yards and two touchdowns.

Houston is the longest road favorite on a Monday night this season, as the Texans look to beat the Jets for the first time in six tries. The last time these teams hooked up in November 2010, Gary Kubiak's team rallied from a 23-7 deficit to take a late 27-23 lead, but Sanchez found Holmes on a 6-yard touchdown strike in the final seconds for a 30-27 triumph. The Texans managed the cover in the loss, cashing as 6 ½-point road underdogs, but the loss dropped Houston to 0-5 in five lifetime meetings with New York.

The AFC South leaders have dropped three straight Monday night contests since 2009, with the last game being a home overtime defeat to the Ravens in 2010 as three-point underdogs. Houston is pretty reliable in the road favorite role since the start of last season, compiling a 5-1 SU/ATS record, including victories over Jacksonville and Denver.

The Jets suffered their first loss as a home underdog in Ryan's tenure against San Francisco, falling to 3-1 SU/ATS in his three-plus seasons. This is the sixth Monday night game for New York since 2009, as the Jets have put together a mediocre 2-3 SU/ATS mark, as one of those wins came over the Dolphins last season, 24-6 as seven-point 'chalk.'

The Texans opened as seven-point favorites, but the number has jumped to eight at most spots, while possibly going up to nine by game-time. The total is set at 40, with several 40 ½'s floating out there. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM from Met Life Stadium and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Monday, October 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 8:30 PM ET N.Y. Jets +9.5 500

N.Y. Jets - Under 40.5 500

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 11

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 2) at TENNESSEE (1 - 4) - 10/11/2012, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 89-58 ATS (+25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's Game

Steelers (2-2) @ Titans (1-4)-- Tennessee is awful, with all four losses by 21+ points; in their only win, they scored three TDs via defense/special teams and still needed OT to win. Pitt won last three series games, by 3-8-21, but they're 2-7 overall in Tennessee- they beat Titans 38-17 at Heinz LY. Steelers finally ran ball better vs Philly (136 YR) after averaging 65 ypg in 1-2 start; they're 0-2 on road this year, giving up 31-34 points at Denver/Oakland. Pitt is 10-20-1 vs spread in last 31 games as a road favorite. Titans are 10-6 in last 16 games as a home underdog- they've allowed 34-41 points in splitting first two home games. AFC North favorites are 1-6 vs spread in non-divisional games, 0-3 on road.

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Thursday, October 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 8:20 PM ET Tennessee +6 500

Tennessee - Under 43.5 500

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NFL Week 6 Preview: Steelers at Titans

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-2)

at TENNESSEE TITANS (1-4)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -5½, Total: 42

After getting crushed on both ends of a two-game road trip, Tennessee returns to Nashville for a Thursday night date with a Pittsburgh team that has beaten the Titans in each of the past three seasons.

The Steelers are still dealing with injuries and haven’t looked sharp on the road this year. Pittsburgh has dropped each of its two away games, SU and ATS, at Denver and Oakland. S Troy Polamalu (calf) is out again and OLB LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) is questionable at best. Neither offense has been crisp this year, though the Steelers got a boost from the return of RB Rashard Mendenhall (14 carries, 81 yards, TD last week against Philly). The Titans have really struggled on offense, especially with back-up QB Matt Hasselbeck under center and RB Chris Johnson (2.9 yards per carry) the biggest cause of an anemic rushing attack.

Can the Titans halt their losing streak against the visiting Steelers? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Tennessee has lost all four of its games by at least three touchdowns, getting outscored 68-21 during its two-game road trip at Houston and Minnesota. The running game got back on track against the Texans with 158 rushing yards, but regressed against the Vikings with just 52 yards on 19 carries (2.7 YPC), marking the fourth game where the Titans rushed for fewer than 60 yards. Chris Johnson has faced the Steelers in each of the past four seasons with little success rushing for 52.8 yards per game on 3.5 YPC with 2 TD. The air attack hasn't been stellar either under Hasselbeck who has thrown for a mere 5.5 yards per attempt with 3 TD and 3 INT. He did play pretty well in last year's meeting at Pittsburgh though, completing 29-of-49 passes for 262 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He should be getting a bit of a boost with WR Kenny Britt (ankle) likely to play all of the snaps. Britt hasn't been close to 100 percent in any game this season, and he creates matchup problems for a Steelers secondary missing star S Troy Polamalu.

The Steelers finally got their ground game cranking last week with the return of Mendenhall, attempting a season-high 31 carries for 136 yards (4.4 YPC). They figure to run even more on Thursday against Tennessee's 28th-ranked run-stop unit allowing 144 rushing YPG. However, the Titans pass defense is also terrible, giving up 280 passing YPG this year (25th in NFL). Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had quite a day in last year's 38-17 romp over Tennessee, throwing five touchdown passes. He has completed 72% of his passes in four career meetings with the Titans, throwing for 1,138 yards (285 YPG), 10 TD and 5 INT. Roethlisberger has also been sharp in 2012 so far, throwing for 1,111 yards (278 YPG), 8 TD and just one interception.

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Rested Cowboys With Tough Test At Baltimore Ravens

The Dallas Cowboys have had almost two weeks to stew about their Monday night debacle versus Chicago. Things don’t get much easier on Sunday at a very tough Baltimore Ravens squad.

The Don Best Pro Odds have Dallas as 3½-point road underdogs with a total of 44½. This is one of the best interconference battles of the week and FOX will broadcast from M&T Bank Stadium at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Cowboys are exactly where they should be at 2-2 straight up. They are capable of beating very good teams on the road, witness the 24-17 final as 3½-point ‘dogs at the Giants in Week 1. They’re also capable of laying a giant egg at home with their Monday night loss (34-18 as 3-point favorites) to Chicago last game a prime example.

Dallas is now 0-3 ATS in its last three contests since the Giants opener.

Quarterback Tony Romo threw five picks (two returned for TDs) versus Chicago. They were not all his fault, but he continues to show poor judgment at critical times. Even owner Jerry Jones, normally the biggest defender of Romo outside of his mother, questioned his ability to take care of the ball.

Coach Jason Garrett’s offense is 30th in the league in scoring (16.3 PPG), which is the main reason the ‘under’ is 3-1. The total yardage numbers (364 YPG, ranked 16th) show there is talent on that side of the ball, but it’s hard to score with constant turnovers and receivers dropping the ball.

Romo should be able to make plays this week against Baltimore pass ‘D’ that ranks just tied-for-22nd (261 YPG). The Dallas running attack has really struggled the last three games with DeMarco Murray, so it will have to be a pass-first attack.

Note the ‘under’ is 2-0 in Dallas’ road games this year and 5-0 in the last five away.

Baltimore (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) has the second-best record in the AFC behind Houston and it’s not too early to start thinking about home field advantage throughout the playoffs. For the Ravens, that means winning games even when they’re not playing well.

John Harbaugh’s guys are 0-3 ATS the last three despite winning them all.

One of those ATS failures was a 9-6 win at Kansas City last week as 6-point favorites. Quarterback Joe Flacco (13-of-27 for 187 yards) had his worst outing of the year, but got bailed out by the defense and another big game by Ray Rice (102 rushing yards).

Flacco has been much better in the three home games (106.5 rating) with the team scoring 32.7 PPG. However, it won’t be easy going against this Rob Ryan defense that is fourth in the league in total yards (277.5 YPG).

A look at the Don Best injury report shows that Dallas nose tackle Jay Ratliff (ankle) is probable to play for the first time this season. That should be a big boost to the run defense and outside linebacker Anthony Spencer (shoulder) could also return after missing last game.

These teams don’t meet very often with Baltimore 4-0 SU and ATS the last four dating back to 1994. The most recent one was in 2008 with the Ravens winning 33-24 as 5-point road ‘dogs. That was Flacco’s rookie year and he threw no interceptions while Romo had two.

Dallas fans hope that’s not a bad omen for Romo on Sunday.

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Struggling Packers On Road At Unbeaten Texans

The Green Bay Packers have been in Houston to face the Texans just once before, and that contest in 2004 also filled the Sunday night prime-time slot on the NFL betting schedule.

That may be the only similarity to the second meeting between the clubs at Reliant Stadium this Sunday when NBC's broadcast begins at 8:20 p.m. (ET). For starters, Houston has been the underdog in the only two previous matchups against the Packers, and the unbeaten Texans find themselves laying four this time to a Green Bay squad that is 2-3 and struggling a third of the way into the 2012 campaign.

Most sports books listed on the Don Best Pro Odds are currently showing 48 for the total after beginning at 47½.

This year's collision was seen as a potential Super Bowl preview before the NFL kicked things off six weeks ago. In fact, last week's Don Best Linemakers Poll still had Green Bay first and Houston very close behind in a dead heat for second with San Francisco. Updated Don Best ratings are due out soon, but so far, the Texans have lived up to the Super Bowl hype with a 5-0 mark (4-1 against the spread) while the Packers have not.

No doubt about the biggest injury news heading into Week 6, as Houston LB Brian Cushing is gone for the season after tearing the ACL in his left knee this past Monday at the Jets. The 4th-year star out of Southern Cal has been a leader statistically and emotionally for the Texans 'D' since his '09 rookie season.

Houston might also be without backup halfback Ben Tate once again. Tate missed the MNF victory in New York with a toe injury and is officially questionable this week.

Green Bay (1-4 ATS) is not without its own injuries where Aaron Rodgers' targets could be limited on Sunday. Wideout Greg Jennings (doubtful, toe) and TE Jermichael Finley (questionable, groin) have been targeted on more than 25 percent Rodgers' passes.

Cushing's absence could be felt if the Pack could somehow establish a running game vs. Houston, but Green Bay has so far been unable to do that against anyone. Rodgers led the Packers in rushing/scrambling last week in the loss at Indy, and now with Cedric Benson out for two months with a broken foot, it comes down to James Starks who has missed the first five games with his own toe injury.

We've known Green Bay wasn't going to win a game running the ball for a while now, but Rodgers & Co. will have to get things going through the air against a tough Houston defense. The Texans are third in fewest yards allowed (275 per game), fourth in scoring (14.6 ppg).

Green Bay has been a middling defense statistically and has to shut down both a running game led by Arian Foster and Matt Schaub's aerial show. This year's Houston offense is more than capable of making up for any defensive shortcomings. Schaub is directing the No. 3 scoring unit (29.8 ppg), more than a touchdown better than Rodgers and the Packers who are 18th (22.4 ppg).

Houston's stats are naturally better at 5-0 against a 2-3 team like the Packers, but the most telling of all might be turnover margin. The Texans are tied for the fewest (3) turnovers and sit +8 in the giveaway/takeaway column. Green Bay is -1 and has given it away six times.

That first meeting between the teams in 2004 found Houston putting up a fight before losing late to Brett Favre and the Packers, 16-13. The only other matchup came in 2008 at Lambeau Field. The Texans pulled off a 24-21 upset as 6½-point underdogs, winning on a 'walk-off' field goal by Kris Brown after Shaub outshined Rodgers with 414 yards passing.

Both of the previous meetings have gone 'under' the total.

It should be pretty typical weather for the Bayou City this time of year, if any weather in Houston is ever typical. Forecasts call for a cloudy day with hardly any chance of rain, and temps in the upper-70s, low-80s for kickoff. The Texans generally close the roof if the thermometer is reading above 80ºF, or in the obvious case of rain. My guess is they'll have it closed for this one should the current forecast hold.

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Lions Look For First Spread Win At Philadelphia Eagles

The Detroit Lions are the only NFL team without an against the spread win this season. They get another shot coming off a bye at the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.

The Don Best Pro Odds screen has Detroit getting 4-points with a total of 47½. FOX will be on hand from Lincoln Financial Field at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

Detroit (1-3 straight up, 0-4 ATS) made the playoffs last year with 10 wins and were expected to contend again with an elite passing attack led by quarterback Matthew Stafford and receiver Calvin Johnson, plus some menacing defensive players like Ndamukong Suh.

That passing attack currently ranks third in the NFL (322 YPG), but that’s misleading with Stafford’s yards per attempt (6.83) and quarterback rating (81.6) both below average. The running game is again towards the league’s bottom. Mikel Leshoure (126 yards) has helped some after missing the first two games, but he’s averaging just 3.2 yards per carry.

Coach Jim Schwartz’ defense has also underachieved at 28.5 PPG allowed, ranked 26th. That’s despite not playing one elite offense with St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee and Minnesota the previous four opponents. The secondary is the big weakness with an opposing passer rating of 101.3 and the team doesn’t have an interception this year. Oakland is the only other squad that can say that.

The ‘D’ should get a big spark with the return of safety Louis Delmas (knee). He’s probable after missing the first four games. Defensive end Cliff Avril (knee) is questionable after getting hurt last game and the pass rusher is needed with only nine team sacks.

The Lions’ two road games were losses at San Francisco (27-19 as 7-point ‘dogs) and Tennessee (44-41 OT as 3½-point favorites). They’re 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven road games overall.

The Eagles (3-2 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) have played a lot of close games with their three wins by a total of four points and having a tough 16-14 loss at Pittsburgh last week (their first cover as 4-point ‘dogs).

Quarterback Michael Vick had two more fumbles to bring his yearly total to five. He also has six picks, which makes him a one-man turnover machine even if he doesn’t seem too concerned about it. Coach Andy Reid obviously doesn’t feel the same way no matter what he says to the media.

The Eagles are 31st in scoring (16 PPG) with turnovers a huge reason. The defense has kept them in games for the most part (19.8 PPG, ranked 10th) despite a pretty tough schedule.

LeSean McCoy is sixth in the NFL in rushing (87.4 YPG). He did get contained at Pittsburgh with 53 yards on 16 carries, but that happens to a lot of opposing backs there. Look for him to rush for at least 80 yards this week, but only around 20 carries as Reid will still put the ball in Vick’s hands despite his problems.

The Eagles are 0-1-1 ATS at home this year with close wins over Baltimore (24-23) and the New York Giants (19-17). Both games required scores with under two minutes remaining, with Vick showing a flair for the dramatic.

The Eagles have won the last five meetings between the teams dating back to 1996. They covered the first four before winning 35-32 as 6½-point road favorites in 2010.

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NY Giants And SF 49ers In NFC Title Rematch

The New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers have a rematch of last year’s NFC title game and could be hard pressed to equal the drama and excitement.

This 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday contest will be held at Candlestick Park, just like the last one. It’s a little surprising that it’s not a night game, but FOX was likely adamant in keeping the broadcast rights.

The Don Best Pro Odds screen has its own take with most outlets having San Francisco as solid 6½-point favorites with a total of 45½-46.

The Giants are the defending Super Bowl champs. They advanced to the Big Game with a dramatic 20-17 OT win in San Francisco last January. Two fumbled punts by Kyle Williams were the big difference.

Coach Tom Coughlin knows San Fran will have steam coming out of its ears and he’s looking for any psychological advantage. He was recently quoted as saying that "nobody gives us a chance to win" (referring to the NFC title this year) and he should feel a little disrespected with the Giants almost touchdown ‘dogs.

Remember these teams also met in the regular season last year with the 49ers winning 27-20 as 4-point home favorites. San Francisco is 10-1-1 ATS at home under coach Jim Harbaugh with the only loss in the conference title game.

The 49ers (4-1 straight up and against the spread) are deserving of all the hype so far. They embarrassed AFC East opponents the last two weeks at the Jets (34-0) and versus Buffalo (45-3). They racked up an average of 501 total yards and allowed just 174.5.

Quarterback Alex Smith has turned up his game with an NFL-best 108.7 rating. The team still doesn’t throw a lot (205 YPG, ranked 26th), but the 7.9 yards per attempt (ranked sixth) makes opposing defenses respect the passing game and not just focus on Frank Gore and the top-ranked rushing attack (196.2 YPG).

Smith has a couple of new weapons with Mario Manningham (126 yards) and Randy Moss (99 yards). Both have modest numbers, but could play a big factor on Sunday in addition to Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis. Manningham will be a little extra stoked having played for the G-Men last year.

The Giants (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) have had an up-and-down start with both losses coming within the NFC East to Dallas (24-17) and at Philly (19-17).

Last week’s game was a 41-27 win over Cleveland as 7½-point home favorites. That spread looks low in retrospect, but Cleveland actually led 17-7 before a 34-3 Giants run. Ahmad Bradshaw had 200 rushing yards on 30 attempts and he could have to carry the full load again with Andre Brown (concussion) questionable.

It’s going to be hard for New York to run no matter who carries the ball. San Fran is seventh in rushing defense (81.4 YPG), allowing just 3.5 per carry. That means the burden will likely fall to the passing attack.

Eli Manning is playing very confident and is second in the league in passing yards (316 YPG). That’s despite Hakeem Nicks missing the last three games with a knee injury (questionable this week). Manning will need to play great under a big pass rush and his five picks this year show he can be rushed into poor decisions.

The Giants have built their reputation as road warriors going back to last year’s playoffs. They’re 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven away (including the Super Bowl), ‘pushing’ that Philly defeat two weeks ago as 2-point ‘dogs.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 in New York’s last six away, the defense surrendering just 15.7 PPG.

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Tech Trends - Week 6

October 9, 2012

Sunday, Oct. 14 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

"Overs" 4-1 last five meetings. Brownies only 3-11 vs. line last 14 as host. Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Ugh! Jets only 6 covers last 14 on board. Jets "over" 7-5 last 12 as host and "over" 30-14 since late 2009. "Over" and Colts, based on 'totals" and team trends.

Bucs no covers last 4 or 6 of last 7 as chalk. Chiefs 7-4 last 11 as road dog and "under" 5-2 last 7 away. Chiefs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Raiders no covers first two on road TY, 1-4 vs. points last five away since late 2011, and 3-6 vs. spread last nine overall since late LY. Falcs 10-5-1 last 16 vs. number as host. Falcons, based on team trends.

Dallas 2-9 last 11 and 3-11 last 14 vs. number since mid 2011. Cowboys "under" 14-7 last 21 since late 2010. Though Ravens only 2-5-1 vs. line last 8 as host since mid 2011. Ravens and "under," based on Cowboy trends.

Birds 4-11 last 15 as chalk, but Lions 0-4 vs. line in 2012, 1-10 last 11, 3-13 last 16 on board. Lions "over" 25-13-2 last 40 since late 2009. "Over," based on Lions' extended "totals" trends.

Jeff Fisher now 4-1 vs. line for Rams. Dolphins 11-3-1 last 15 on board. Rams "under" 26-14 since late in 2009. "Under," based on Rams' extended "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 14 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll "under" 5-0 TY but Belichick "over" 31-12 since late 2009. Seahawks have covered last five as host and 14-5 vs. spread at home since Carroll arrived in 2010. Carroll 14-6 last 20 on board. Belichick 3-0 vs. line on road TY. Seahawks, based on extended home marks.

Big Red 5-2 vs. line last 7 in Glendale. Bills 4-10 last 14 on board, and "over" 15-7 since late 2010. "Over" and Cardinals, based on "totals" and team trends.

Shan "over" 8-4 last 12 since late 2011. But also only 3-7 vs. spread since LY at FedEx Field. "Over" and Vikings, based on recent Skin trends.

Rematch of LY's NFC title game! Remember these teams split LY at Candlestick, and Harbaugh 10-1-1 vs. line at home since LY. G-men have covered last six as visitor. Coughlin "under" 9-3 last 11 since late LY. 49ers "under" 5-3-1 last 9 as host. "Under," based on 'totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 14 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Texans 4-1 vs. line TY, now 18-6 last 24 on board since late 2010, 8-1 last 9 at home vs. line. Pack no covers last four on road. Texans, based on team trends.

Monday, Oct. 15 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Denver "over" 30-14 last 44 since late 2009. If favored, note Norv 3-6 last 9 as home chalk. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.

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Las Vegas Money Moves

October 12, 2012

When the 49ers opened as six-point favorites for their Week 6 home game against the Giants, Coast Resorts sports book director Bob Scucci wasn't surprised that the first few bets came on the Giants, but he was skeptical of a possible false move because of what he's seen over the first weeks of this season.
"I thought plus-6 was a lot of points, but it's the type of activity I'm seeing early from a few bettors that has me believing some might be attempting to drive the number down in order to bet the other side larger later in the week," said Scucci. "I saw the same type of pattern in last night's Steelers-Titans game and also last week between the Vikings and Titans."

The same thing also happened a few weeks ago when the Vikings beat the 49ers. The thought process for a sports book director is, 'why else would sharp money take the points early in the week when they know if they wait, the large conglomeration of public money accumulated might force the move to a better number.' The answer is simple, they want to lay the favorite later at many other betting outs for more money that follow moves from other books.

Scucci has no problem playing the cat and mouse game with the betting groups. He's been one of the best in the city at sniffing out schemes. From his early days running the Stardust to now, Scucci has seen just about every type of sharp money strategy and every few years, they seem to cycle back around.

"After we went to 5 ½ with the 49ers, we just continued to get 49ers action, pushing us to 6 and then to 6 ½ on Thursday," Scucci said. "But not much of it came from sharp money. It was all public money driving the number."

So if it was a scheme to influence the market, the sharps missed their opportunity which sets up for their zig-zag play. It's one of those things like a pitcher does in baseball where he sets up a hitter throughout a game with certain pitches, never showing him his ace pitch until maybe his second or third at-bat.

Sharps took +6 early knowing books would respect the move based on their movements in their first couple of at-bats. Now comes the curve ball where sharps wait for the best number on the Giants -- hopefully +7 -- and bet it again for larger money. It's just a theory, but one to watch that may play out over the weekend.

As a reference to show just how inflated Sunday's line already is, we can look back at last season's NFC Championship game in San Francisco where the 49ers were two-point favorites.

Cantor Gaming had the 49ers set at -3.5 in this game back in August, Now, we're looking at 6.5. Perhaps a little overreaction by the betting public?

"The public has seen the Giants appear to struggle a little while watching the 49ers not only win, but win big over the last two weeks, and easily covering the number," Scucci said.

Here's a look at how some of the other Week 6 games have moved during the week:

-- Bad weather is expected in Cleveland Sunday with a 60% chance of rain and some gusting winds that may make it difficult for the teams to score. The Browns have already been a great UNDER team at home, staying UNDER the number in their past seven home games. The total opened 44 ½ and has been bet down to 43 ½. The Bengals opened at -3 (EVEN) and have been bet against, down to 2 ½, just because of the key number and the underdog presenting great value this season.

-- The Buccaneers opened -3 ½ (EVEN) against the Chiefs and are now -4 ½ due to quarterback Matt Cassel (head) 'out' and Brady Quinn in for the Chiefs. Quinn has looked like a deer in headlights every chance he's got to play whether in preseason with Denver or his flop in Cleveland as starting QB, but there still isn't much of a fall-off from the two. The best thing Cassel has done all season is hand the ball off to Jamal Charles, which Quinn should be able to handle.

-- The Falcons opened as 8 ½-point home favorites against the Raiders and have been bet up to -9. This game has an eerily similar tone to it that the Panthers-Falcons game from Week 4 did. Bettors jumped all over the Falcons at home and it took a late snafu by Cam Newton for Atlanta to win, but the Panthers still got the money.

-- The Ravens opened as four-point home favorites, but Cowboys money has dropped the game to 3 ½. The Cowboys come off a bye with all kinds of offensive issues, but the Ravens hurry-up offense has been slowed somewhat over the past two weeks.

-- There is an on-going thought process by bettors in Las Vegas that this is the week the Lions finally show up with their 'A' game after a week off. The Eagles opened as five-point favorites and have been bet down to 3 ½. The Lions haven't covered a game all season and have been one of the bigger disappointments of 2012.

-- The Dolphins opened as five-point home favorites against the Rams, but bettors are buying into Jeff Fisher's Rams, who have covered four of their five games. The Rams offense is still a work in progress, but their defense has been very opportunistic with a strong pass rush.

-- The Patriots opened as five-point favorites at Seattle and Seahawks money has pushed the number down to 3 ½. Seattle has a huge home field advantage, but wow, the Pats have given Tom Brady two straight 200 yard rushing performances coming in.

-- The Texans opened as four-point favorites prior to their Monday night game against the Jets. After losing linebacker Brian Cushing, their defensive maestro, the line was adjusted to 3 ½, which may not be enough. Cushing is one of the more valuable defensive players in the league as far as ratings go. And for as sluggish as the Packers offense looks, they'd be 4-1 without two miracles going against them. Should be a great matchup under the lights on SNF!

-- The Chargers opened as three-point home favorites over the Broncos before their Sunday night game at New Orleans. Nothing changed when the line was reposted Monday morning, but bettors quickly ran with the Broncos dropping the number to 1 ½.

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Week 6 Tips

October 11, 2012

The home underdogs dominated earlier this season against the spread, but an under-the-radar bet that has turned profit is to fade short home favorites. By going against home 'chalk' of four points or less, a record of 16-6 ATS was produced, as six teams are in this situation heading into Week 6. We'll highlight the five day contests, including three below .500 teams that can be dubbed as questionable favorites.

Colts at Jets (-3 ½, 43) - 1:00 PM EST

This isn't exactly Super Bowl III reincarnated, as New York closes out a three-game homestand looking for a victory. The Jets cashed as 10-point home underdogs in Monday's 23-17 loss to the unbeaten Texans, but New York is a beat-up football team with questions at quarterback. The Colts have no questions regarding their most important position, as top pick Andrew Luck helped spear-head a late rally to stun the Packers last Sunday, pushing Indianapolis to 2-2 SU/ATS.

Indianapolis hits the road for the first time since getting drubbed at Chicago in Week 1, as the Colts have covered each of their last two games in the underdog role against the Vikings and Packers. The Jets have thrived when laying points this season, cashing in divisional victories over the Bills and Dolphins, while Rex Ryan's team needs to grab this game before heading to New England next week. Mark Sanchez owns a 2-1 record in his career against the Colts, including the playoff victory at Lucas Oil Stadium in January 2011.

Chiefs at Buccaneers (-4, 40) - 1:00 PM EST

The Tampa/St. Petersburg market will be missing this blacked out game locally, which could be a good thing. Matt Cassel will not start at quarterback for Kansas City, as former Notre Dame standout Brady Quinn will make his first start since 2009 as a member of the Browns. The Bucs are fresh off the bye week, but Greg Schiano's club has dropped three straight games since beating the Panthers in the opening week of the season.

Since Jon Gruden's departure as head coach, Tampa Bay has put together a dreadful 6-17-1 ATS at Raymond James Stadium the last three-plus seasons. The latest loss came against the Redskins in Week 4 as Washington slipped past Tampa Bay, 24-22, as the Bucs failed to cover as 1 ½-point favorites. Kansas City owns a solid 7-3 ATS record away from Arrowhead Stadium since December 2010, including an outright victory at New Orleans in Week 3 as nine-point underdogs.

Cowboys at Ravens (-3 ½, 44) - 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore heads to Houston for a potential AFC Championship preview next week, but the Ravens need to take care of business against the rested Cowboys this Sunday. Dallas looks to bounce back after getting routed at home by Chicago in Week 4, while Tony Romo threw five interceptions in the loss as three-point favorites. However, the Cowboys' most impressive victory this season came as a road underdog in the opener over the Giants, 24-17.

The Cowboys have dominated following the bye week over the last seven seasons by compiling a 6-1 ATS mark, as the only loss came as seven-point 'chalk' against the Titans at home in 2010. Dallas is 4-0 ATS the previous four road contests against AFC opponents, including covers in close losses to the Jets and Patriots last season. Each of Baltimore's last three victories have come by seven points or less, while putting together two less than inspiring efforts in wins over the Browns and Chiefs, both non-covers. Since the team moved from Cleveland to Baltimore in 1996, the Ravens have won and cashed in all three meetings with the Cowboys.

Lions at Eagles (-4, 47 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Detroit returns from the bye after two disappointing losses as a favorite to Tennessee and Minnesota, as the Lions allowed four special teams touchdowns in those defeats. Jim Schwartz's squad heads to Philadelphia this week to battle an Eagles' team that has been involved in four games decided by two points or less (3-1). The Eagles try to rebound after falling short in a 16-14 loss at Pittsburgh, but Philadelphia cashed for the second straight game following an 0-3 ATS start.

The Lions are receiving points for just the second time this season, as Detroit will attempt to improve on 3-8 ATS record away from Ford Field since the start of 2011. Each of the last two meetings between these teams has finished 'over' the total, including a 35-32 victory by the Eagles in Detroit two seasons ago as a 6 ½-point favorite. In Philadelphia's previous nine home games as a touchdown favorite or less, Andy Reid's club has cashed six times, including three of the last four since December 2010.

Rams at Dolphins (-3 ½, 37 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

After this game, either Miami will sit at .500 through six games or St. Louis will own a 4-2 record. Regardless, Jeff Fisher returns to the city in which he stiffed in order to take the Rams' head coaching job this past offseason. St. Louis is fresh off back-to-back home division wins over Seattle and Arizona, but the Rams will be without top receiver Danny Amendola, who broke his collarbone against the Cardinals.

The Dolphins are favored for the first time this season, while seeking consecutive victories after a solid road triumph at Cincinnati last week. Following a 3-13 ATS run from 2008 through November 2011 as a home favorite, the Dolphins managed to cover four of their last five games at Sun Life Stadium in this role. Miami looks to improve on a 1-8 ATS record at home since 2007 against NFC opponents, with the lone victory coming over Washington last season.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 6

October 13, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Browns are 12-0-1 ATS (7.1 ppg) since 1999 after a Sunday game where the total was at least 40, where they threw for at least 250 yards.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Eagles are 11-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since December 11, 2005 after a game as an underdog where they scored less than expected.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Utah is 11-0-1 ATS (14.2 ppg) since 1998 since as between a 7.5 and 18 point underdog between games 2 and 12 of the season.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- UNLV is 0-11 (-12.4 ppg) since 2003 when they scored between 29 and 37 points last game.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- When facing a team which had at least 19 third down attempts last game and made fewer 50% of those teams are 48-32-5 ATS (60.0%). Active on NY Jets vs. Indy and Buffalo vs. Arizona.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Giants are 0-19 OU (-9.0 ppg) since November 1992 after a home win in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average.

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Total Talk - Week 6

October 13, 2012

Week 5 Recap

The 'under' produced an 8-6 record last week and that number could've easily been 12-4 if it wasn't for some second-half outbursts. In particular, our apologies go out to anybody who had the 'under' (39) in the Bears-Jaguars matchup. The line dropped, deservingly, and the score was knotted 3-3 at the half. Chicago led 10-3 late in the third quarter before a barrage of big plays, including two defensive touchdowns, happened. The final dagger was 44-yard scamper late in the game as the Bears were trying to run out the clock. Despite that lucky 'over' ticket, the 'under' stands at 40-37 on the season.

Round 2 - Already?

In Week 2, Cincinnati stopped Cleveland 34-27 at home and the combined 61 points easily jumped 'over' the closing number of 42 ½. Four weeks later, the Browns and Bengals will meet again, this time from Cleveland. The opener came out at 45 and it quickly dropped to 44 and most books have the line down to 43. Why the drop? For starters, there is a 60% chance of precipitation for Sunday's game, plus this is a divisional matchup so these teams are familiar with one another. However, Cleveland's defense is banged up but it does get back stud defensive back Joe Haden, who missed the Week 2 affair. Bengals QB Andy Dalton had 318 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting against a defense without Haden.

The 'over' has cashed in the last three encounters between the two teams but this total seems too high for this matchup and we delved into the number. In the last 20 meetings between the Bengals and Browns, the total was listed in the forties 12 times. The 'under' went 8-4 (67%) in those games and more importantly, it was 6-0 to the 'under' in totals listed above 42 points.

Off the Bye

We touched on this last week and with four teams off the bye, be aware of the rust vs. rest factor. Last season, the 'under' went 24-8 (75%) last season in games that featured at least one team playing with rest. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis were in these spots last week. The Steelers went 'under' while the Colts saw their game go 'over' but it wasn't easy for them. Indy got a tremendous effort from rookie quarterback Andrew Luck as the team posted 29 points in the second-half.

The four teams on bye this week:

Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers will host a banged-up Kansas City team.
Oakland: The Raiders will play an early game (10:00 a.m. PT) in Atlanta.
Dallas: The Cowboys visit Baltimore.
Detroit: The Lions head to Philadelphia (see below)

Something's Gotta Give!

With five weeks of action to analyze, it's a little easier to pinpoint 'over' and 'under' teams and their tendencies. It's easy to handicap a total when you have two 'over' or 'under' squads going up against one another, but what do you do when they're the opposite? Below are four contests where that issue exists.

Detroit at Philadelphia: The Lions are off the bye, so they should be prepared. Detroit has seen the 'over' go 2-1-1 and they've given up 27 and 44 points in its two road games. Philadelphia has watched the 'under' go 4-1 behind a turnover prone offense. The Eagles have only managed to bust the 20-point barrier once and they were fortunate (24) to do that. The total is hovering between 47 and 48 points, which might be too high for these inconsistent squads.

Minnesota at Washington: After starting the season with four straight 'over' winners, the Redskins saw the 'under' cash last week in their 24-17 loss to Atlanta. What we've learned from Washington is that you can score on them (29.4 PPG) but the offense has been shaky past two weeks. Minnesota has watched the 'under' go 4-1 and it should be 5-0 if it wasn't for some miraculous plays in Week 1's matchup against the Jaguars. The Vikings' defense (15.8 PPG) has been lights out this season, plus the offense prefers to grind rather than glow. No early total was released due to injuries but a number in the low to mid-forties should be expected.

Buffalo at Arizona: Can an average offense score on a suspect defense? Gamblers will ask themselves that question when the Bills, who have allowed 97 points the last two weeks, visit the Cardinals. Buffalo has watched the 'over' cash in four of five, due to its aforementioned weak defense. Meanwhile, Arizona has seen the 'under' go 4-1 and similar to Minnesota, the 'under' should be 5-0 if it wasn't for the late bursts in a Week 4 overtime win over Miami (24-21). Betting the 'over' in the desert was once a solid look but a weak offense and strong defense has changed that trend. Despite that fact, the total is still pretty healthy at 43 ½ points.

New England at Seattle: Another question for gamblers - can a great offense score on a great defense? The Patriots have seen the 'over' go 3-2 behind an offense that's scored 30 or more in four games this season. Defensively, Seattle is ranked first in total defense (258 YPG) and second in points per game (14) and the unit has played talented units in the Cowboys, Packers and Panthers. This will easily be the toughest test for Seattle, who has seen the 'under' go 5-0. New England is starting to run the ball more with a hurry-up look but the Seahawks have been beasts on the ground (66.6 YPG). The total is hovering around 44 ½-points, which is the lowest total for the Pats this season and not surprisingly, the highest for the Seahawks. Make a note that New England made two trips to the West Coast last season and they scored a combined 72 points against the Broncos (41) and Raiders (31) respectively.

Line Moves

The smart money went 3-1 (75%) last week with their total moves in Week 5. Below are the Week 6 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: Line opened at 45 and dropped to 43 ½ (See above)
Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets: Line opened at 42 and jumped to 43 1/2
Kansas City at Tampa Bay: Line opened at 42 ½ and dropped to 40 ½ (Chiefs QB Matt Cassel 'out')

Fearless Predictions

If it wasn't for the Chicago-Jacksonville bad beat that we mentioned above, it would've been a clean sweep. Still, the profits were $190 for the week and now $350 on the year. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-Oakland 48.5

Best Under: Cleveland-Cincinnati 43

Best Team Total: Over Oakland 18 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39 ½ Atlanta-Oakland
Under 52 Cleveland-Cincinnati
Under 46 ½ Miami-St. Louis