The Bum's NFL October Best Bets !

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NFL Tech Trends - Week 5

October 4, 2012


Thursday, Oct. 4 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Cards won and covered both meetings LY. Big Red 11-2 SU last 13 and 10-4 vs. spread last 14 since mid 2011. Both "under" 3-1 TY. "Under" and Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Oct. 7 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Skins "over" 8-2-1 last 11 since late 2011. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Andy Reid 5-2 last seven as pick or dog. Tomlin has covered only 8 of last 21 on board since late 2010, though he is 6-3 vs. number at home since last season (bigger problems vs. spread on road). Steel also now "under" 6-1 last 7 at Heinz Field. "Under," based on "totals" and team trends.

Pack now no covers last three away from home and just 5-6 last 11 on board since late 2011. Pack also "over" 46-26 since 2007 for McCarthy (14-7 "over" since 2011). "Over," based on extended Pack 'totals" trends.

Browns have only dropped one spread decision (2-1-1) thus far with Weeden at QB in 2012. Brownies also "under" 3-1 TY and now "under" 17-7-1 since late in the 2010 campaign. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Dolphins 6-1 vs. line last 6 away since mid 2011 and 9-3-1 last 13 on board. Cincy 4-3-1 as chalk since LY after 6-20 mark in role from 2007-10. Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

Baltimore has covered 5 of last 7 away, and Ravens 7-4 "over" last 11 on road. Ravens and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 30 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll "under" 4-0 TY, Seahawks also 8-1 last nine as "short" since mid 2011. Seattle also 13-5 last 18 overall vs. number. Seahawks and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Bears "under" 7-3 last 10 on road, Jags "under" 14-6 since 2011. Jax also just 2-6 last 8 as home dog . "Under" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.

Munchak still only 7-13 vs. number since becoming Titan HC last year, also no covers last four as visitor. Titans "over" 5-1 last five since late LY. Vikes 0-2 as chalk TY and 1-7 record as chalk since 2011. Titans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Belichick won and covered big in two meetings vs. Tebow LY. Denver "over" 29-14-1 since late in 2009, Belichick "over" 30-12 since late 2009. Peyton Manning has covered 5 of his last 7 vs. Belichick. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Harbaugh 9-1-1 vs. line at home since LY. Chan just 2-5 vs. line last 7 away. Bills "over" 9-4 last 13 away. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 7 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Saints "over" 19-11 last 30, Norv "over" 10-2 last 12 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Oct. 8 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Kubiak 4-0 SU and vs. line TY and now 18-5 vs. points last 23 on board. Rexy only 2-5-1 as dog since LY. Texans, based on recent Kubiak trends.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 5

October 5, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Titans are 11-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since October 8, 2006 following a game where they were 7+-point dogs.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 11-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since November 22, 1998 following a game where they trailed by double digits after the first quarter and scored less points than expected.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Oregon St. is 14-0 ATS (16.0 ppg) since October 16, 1999 when they have three wins on the season and one team is favored.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Eastern Michigan is 0-12 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since 1996 when they covered by 15+ points last game and aren’t 26+ point underdogs, if they are no better than .500 on the season.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams which have thrown for less than 150 yards in each of the last three games are 131-96-5 ATS. Active on Seattle.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Dolphins are 16-0 ATS (+8.8 ppg) since November 2006 as a dog off a game in which their defense stifled at least ten third down attempts and recorded at least one sack.

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Total Talk - Week 5

October 6, 2012

Week 4 Recap

Gamblers watched the ‘over’ go 8-7 last week and a lot of the games were either hurt or helped with second-half outputs. Anybody chasing ‘over’ tickets were certainly pleased last week, as the ‘over’ went 10-5 in the second-half.

It’s safe to say that when you see those lopsided results, you know some ‘under’ tickets were tough losses, in particular the Miami-Arizona outcome. The Dolphins and Cardinals ‘under’ was definitely the right side and the score was 13-7 heading into the fourth quarter. Sure enough, some huge plays and key fourth-quarter conversions helped the score get knotted at 21 and that was all that was needed to go ‘over’ the closing total of 40 ½ points.

On the year, the ‘under’ stands at 32-31 through 63 games. Keep in mind that there are only 14 games this week with four teams on bye and all of the contests are non-divisional.

Off the Bye

Two teams, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, weren’t in action last week due to their byes. We bring that to your attention because the ‘under’ went 24-8 (75%) last season in games that featured at least one team playing with rest.

One reason that can be argued is the new rules created by the NFLPA, which mandates that players must receive four consecutive days off at one point during their bye week. In simple terms, just because a team is off doesn’t mean that they’ll be prepared.

The Steelers host the Eagles on Sunday and the number has already dropped (see below). Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 this season while the Eagles have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1. Surprisingly, Philadelphia’s defense is playing better than the offense this season.

If Indianapolis wants to win this weekend, most would believe that it will have to score some serious points at home against Green Bay. The Colts allowed 20 and 22 points in their first two home games and that came against inferior attacks in the Vikings and Jaguars. However, the Packers’ offense isn’t clicking this season, especially when you compare it to last year’s numbers. To put things in perspective, Green Bay scored 30 or more points in 11 of its 17 games. Through four games this season, the Packers haven’t busted the 30-point barrier and the total is hovering on the high side of 48.

Early Tendencies

Washington has started the season with four straight ‘over’ tickets. Oddsmakers have been tweaking numbers with the Redskins’ totals all season and this week is no different. The line for Week 5’s game against Atlanta opened at 52 and took an early hit down to 50 but has bounced back up to 51 ½ points. Perhaps some pundits are expecting rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III to hit a wall. It hasn’t happened so far and another great component for ‘over’ tickets is a shaky defense and that’s what the Redskins have. The unit is allowing 415 YPG and 30.8 PPG, plus the pass rush has only generated seven sacks in four games. If Atlanta’s Matt Ryan gets time on Sunday, another 30-spot could easily be posted in D.C.

Seattle has proven to us that it has a legit defense (14.5 PPG) and an offense that’s very limited. Similar to Washington, the Seahawks are using a rookie quarterback as well. Unfortunately, Russell Wilson (4 INTs, 4 TDs) hasn’t had much success in his debut season, especially on third-down conversions (28%). When you combine these facts, it usually produces low-scoring affairs. With that being said, we shouldn’t be surprised that Seattle is a perfect 4-0 to the ‘under’ this season. This week, the Seahawks will head back on the road to face Carolina, who has the ability to score. The total opened at 44 and dropped quickly (see below) and you can certainly understand why. This will be the third road game of the season for Seattle, who scored 16 and 13 points in the first two games as a visitor.

Line Moves

After watching the early money go 7-1 in Week 3, the sharps weren’t exactly sharp in Week 4. In the eight totals that saw line moves (up or down) of 1 ½-points or more, only the Seattle-St. Louis ‘under’ was the correct call. Below are the Week 4 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday night.

Philadelphia-Pittsburgh: Line opened at 44 ½ and dropped to 43
Miami-Cincinnati: Line opened at 44 and jumped to 45 ½
Tennessee-Minnesota: Line opened at 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Seattle-Carolina: Line opened at 44 and dropped to 42 1/2

Under the Lights

The Eagles-Giants matchup on SNF started slow and wound up going 'under’ the closing number of 46 but could’ve gotten there with some help. On Monday, the Bears and Cowboys certainly got help from mistakes. Chicago led 3-0 late in the second quarter before Dallas gave up four big plays, two of them coming with interception returns for touchdowns. What looked like an easy ‘under’ turned into an ‘over’ ticket.

Through 14 games, the ‘under’ stands at 10-4 (71%) in primetime games this season. Bettors could be looking at a shootout on SNF, when New Orleans and San Diego clash from “The Big Easy.” The total (53) is the highest on the board and could get there easily if they convert touchdowns and not field goals.

Fearless Predictions

We juiced out last week and with a couple bounces, we probably could’ve swept the board again. You don’t get paid for close-calls, so we’ll accept the 20 cents ($20) loss. Overall, we’re still up $160 and looking to bounce back. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: San Diego-New Orleans 53

Best Under: Chicago-Jacksonville 41

Best Team Total: Over 28 New Orleans

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 44 San Diego-New Orleans
Under 50 Chicago-Jacksonville
Under 54 Miami-Cincinnati

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Week 5 Tips

October 5, 2012

One month is in the books inside the NFL season as only two teams remain unbeaten following Arizona's loss at St. Louis on Thursday. The Falcons look to move to 5-0 with a trip to Washington, while the Texans are long favorites on Monday night against the Jets. Four favorites on Sunday are attempting to avoid a letdown when they take on inferior opponents, as we'll see if these public teams are solid bets this weekend.

Falcons (-3, 51 ½) at Redskins - 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta rolled through its first three opponents (Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego), but had its struggles in a 30-28 home victory over Carolina last week as seven-point favorites. The Falcons head to the Nation's Capital to take on electric rookie Robert Griffin III and a Redskins' squad that is 2-2 through four weeks.

Washington won and covered each opportunity as an underdog this season at New Orleans and Tampa Bay, while staving off the Buccaneers with a game-winning field goal in last Sunday's 24-22 victory. The Redskins are playing only their second game at FedEx Field, as Mike Shanahan's club lost in the favorite role in Week 3 to the Bengals, 38-31, as Washington is a perfect 4-0 to the 'over' this season.

The Falcons have scored at least 27 points in all four games, but the 'over' sits at just 2-2. Mike Smith's squad owns a 10-5 ATS record as a road favorite since 2008, including a victory at Kansas City in the season opener. Atlanta is making its first trip to D.C. since 2006, when the Falcons beat the Redskins, 24-14 as one-point underdogs, a game that dates back to the famed Jim Mora, Jr. era.

Ravens (-6, 46 ½) at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore has been off since last Thursday night's home victory over Cleveland, as the Ravens head to Kansas City for the first time since knocking off the Chiefs in the Wild Card round in January 2011. Two teams have lost three games by double-digits this season, as both the Chiefs and Titans search for their second win on Sunday.

Romeo Crennel's team has failed to be competitive in three losses to the Falcons, Chargers, and Bills, while needing to rally from an 18-point deficit to force overtime in a victory at New Orleans. The Chiefs haven't cashed in any loss this season, but Kansas City has compiled a 6-3 ATS record as an underdog at Arrowhead Stadium since 2010. Due to an atrocious defensive effort through four games, the 'over' is 3-1 so far, while the Chiefs have allowed at least 35 points in all three defeats.

The Ravens hit the road for just the second time in 2012, as Baltimore's first away contest was a bitter 24-23 defeat at Philadelphia in Week 2. John Harbaugh's club managed a 23-16 win over the Browns in Week 4, but failed to cash as 11-point favorites. Baltimore owns a 7-4 ATS record the last 11 in the role of road 'chalk,' including the 30-7 rout of the Chiefs to advance to the second round of the 2011 postseason.

Bears (-4 ½, 41) at Jaguars - 4:05 PM EST

An interesting spot for Chicago, coming off Monday's dominating performance as a road 'dog at Dallas. The Bears crushed the Cowboys, 34-18, while intercepting Tony Romo five times, including returning two of those picks for touchdowns. Now, the Bears head to North Florida for a late kickoff with the struggling Jaguars, who fell by 17 points to the Bengals in Week 4.

Lovie Smith's club has put together an impressive 3-1 ATS record, including a pair of double-digit victories in the favorite role over the Colts and Rams. Chicago faces another team in this class, as Jacksonville has scored a grand total of 17 points in two home games. The Jaguars are 3-7 SU/ATS at home off a loss since 2009, which includes a victory over the Ravens last season as a 10-point 'dog.

The Bears are listed as a road favorite for the first time this season, as Chicago is 7-3-1 ATS since 2007 when laying points away from Soldier Field. The defense has held their last two opponents (St. Louis and Dallas) to just 24 points combined, while the Bears own a 5-1 ATS record the last six opportunities as a favorite off a straight-up victory as an underdog.

Bills at 49ers (-9 ½, 44 ½) - 4:25 PM EST

The Niners rebounded nicely from a Week 3 loss at Minnesota by slicing up the Jets, 34-0 last Sunday. San Francisco returns home after spending the last two weeks on the highway to host a Buffalo team that is reeling following a 52-28 beatdown at the hands of New England. How bad was it for the Bills? Chan Gailey's squad led 21-7 before the Patriots ran off 35 unanswered points, as New England improved to 22-2 to the last 24 meetings with Buffalo since 2000.

Since Jim Harbaugh's arrival in the Bay last season, the 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS, while cashing three of four times in 2012. San Francisco has failed to cover one time in this span at Candlestick Park, losing the NFC Championship to the Giants in overtime this past January. The Niners have won six of their previous seven home games against AFC opponents, including a pair of double-digit triumphs over the Steelers and Browns last season.

The Bills have been involved in three high-scoring affairs this season, while allowing at least 48 points in two defeats. In the last 10 games in the road underdog role, Buffalo is just 3-6-1 ATS, including the 20-point blowout loss in the season opener to the Jets. The 'over' is on a nice run for the Bills, going 6-1 since last December.

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Buffalo Bills Trek West To Face San Francisco 49ers

The ebbs and flows of the NFL season are inevitable. Ups and downs are part of life for almost every NFL team.

The Buffalo Bills (2-2) and San Francisco 49ers (3-1) have not been immune from those sorts of vicissitudes in the first month of the 2012 NFL campaign. Last week, however, both began to resemble the teams many were expecting to see this season.

Which was not good news for the Bills, but a pretty good deal for the 49ers.

We’ll see if last week’s pattern continues on Sunday when Buffalo makes the long trek to the Bay Area. A late week check of the Don Best Pro Odds notes that host San Francisco is a 9½-10 point favorite at almost all Las Vegas sports books, with the total mostly at 44½ shaded to the ‘under.’

Kickoff at Candlestick Park will be at 4:25 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing the TV coverage. Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots will be on hand to describe the action.

Buffalo certainly hopes last week’s 52-28 loss at Orchard Park to New England doesn’t linger. For the Bills’ sake it had better not, because after this trip to Candlestick, Buffalo has road games at Arizona and New England, plus a home game vs. unbeaten Houston, in three of its next four games. The Bills have their “bye” week on October 28, after hosting Tennessee, but it’s safe to say that the next month is extremely critical for the Bills...and the future of head coach Chan Gailey.

The loss to the Patriots was disturbing on a variety of fronts, not the least of which was allowing 45 points in the second half (and 31 in a 4th-Q meltdown) after assuming a 21-7 lead early in the third quarter. Along the way the Bills allowed a whopping 247 yards on the ground. Moreover, injury problems became a concern last week, and Buffalo likely plugs in a pair of new OL starters at Candlestick after LT Cordy Glenn and RG Kraig Urbik went down with ankle injuries against the Pats.

Perhaps the most alarming development last week was the regression of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick into the mistake-prone mess who struggled down the stretch last season when tossing an NFL-worst 23 picks. Fitzpatrick, who had not thrown an interception in his previous two starts after tossing three in the opening loss to the Jets, was guilty of four picks against New England.

The Bills were also held to a season-low 98 yards rushing against Bill Belichick’s defense, and top backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, both of whom having missed action due to injury this season, were each guilty of fumbles against New England.

For Buffalo to succeed, and for Fitzpatrick to avoid disaster, the Bills have to be able to run the ball effectively, and Fitzpatrick has to begin finding top wideout Steve Johnson downfield a bit more often.

All easier said than done, however, especially against the gnarly 49ers, who bounced back from their shock loss at Minnesota to throttle the overrated Jets, 34-0, last week at the Meadowlands’ MetLife Stadium.

The tale of that one-sided romp could be found in the rushing statistics, which reflected the sort of physical domination that head coach Jim Harbaugh stresses. San Francisco pounded for 245 yards rushing while conceding only 45 yards on 17 carries to the helpless Jet runners.

Given the maddening inconsistency of the Buffalo defensive front, and its shortcomings that were exposed last week vs. the Patriots, the scenario is a potentially-frightening one for the Buffalo defense this week.

Another concern for the Bills this week is that Harbaugh has developed a package of plays for 2nd-year backup QB Colin Kaepernick, the long-striding Nevada grad who was also a 1,000-yard-rusher in multiple seasons for the Wolf Pack. Kaepernick, used in “Wild Kap” looks, gained 50 yards on four carries last week vs. the Jets, but can also put the ball in the air, creating an extra concern for opposing defenses.

If there are some concerns for Harbaugh’s offense, it’s that QB Alex Smith has yet to detonate the big-play element the 49ers thought they were adding to their strike force in the offseason when acquiring the likes of WRs Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and rookie A.J. Jenkins, plus rookie RB LaMichael James from Oregon.

But it’s not been all that bad for Smith, who continues to manage games effectively and avoid mistakes (he has only one pick in four games). As long as Smith plays within himself, Harbaugh is unlikely to contemplate any QB change, and will be using Kaepernick only on occasion in a change-of-pace role. Moreover, the “O” could regain the services of beastly RB Brandon Jacobs, the ex-Giant banger who has been out with a knee injury sicne the second week of preseason.

Meanwhile, Vic Fangio’s 49er stop unit allowed only 145 yards of total offense to the Jets and ranks third overall in the league, allowing just 277 ypg. San Francisco, however, is not forcing TOs at the rate it did last season when finishing with an NFL-best +28 TO margin. The 49ers have forced only seven giveaways in four weeks and stand +3 in TO margin entering October.

Of course, what remains noteworthy about the Niners is their pointspread prowess, as they’re now 15-6-1 vs. the number since Harbaugh’s arrival last season. Included is a 9-1-1 home spread mark at Candlestick.

As for the Bills, they’re just 2-5 vs. the line their last seven on the road, and are also ‘over’ 9-4 their last 13 away from home.

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Eagles Visit Steelers In Battle Of Pennsylvania

The Philadelphia Eagles aren’t leaving a lot of margin for error in their wins this season. They visit a suddenly healthier Pittsburgh Steelers team on Sunday in the Battle of Pennsylvania.

The Don Best Pro Odds have Philadelphia as 3-3½-point underdogs with a total of 44. FOX has the broadcast rights to this interconference affair and will get underway from Heinz Field at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Eagles (3-1 straight up, 0-3-1 against the spread) are playing as an underdog for the first time this season. Their three wins have come by a grand total of four points, with the latest 19-17 at home on Sunday night over the division rival Giants. That ‘pushed’ the 2-point spread.

Quarterback Michael Vick led the game-winning field goal drive in the fourth quarter and was 19-of-30 (63.3 percent) for 241 yards. More importantly, he was turnover free after having six picks and three lost fumbles in the first three games. Vick suffered a knee contusion, but is listed as probable.

LeSean McCoy (384 yards) is second in the NFL in rushing. He’s also probable with a knee tweak after rushing for 123 yards last week. Only two of those came in the first half (on six carries) and Philly needs to get him going early against a Pittsburgh run defense that is allowing a mediocre 101 YPG (tied-for-14th).

Coach Andy Reid is worried about an emotional letdown after the Giants and his team has also struggled on the road (0-2 ATS). The Eagles needed a touchdown with 1:18 left to beat Cleveland, 17-16 as 9-point favorites in Week 1. The game at Arizona two weeks ago was a terrible performance (27-6 loss as 3-point favorites).

Both of those road games easily went ‘under’ the total with the offense struggling bad.

The Steelers (1-2 SU and ATS) were one of two teams to have a bye in Week 4 and are still smarting from their stunning 34-31 Week 3 loss at Oakland as 3½-point favorites. They certainly can’t afford to fall to 1-3.

Coach Mike Tomlin’s guys at least had time to rest and get healthy. Running back Rashard Mendenhall (knee) and linebacker James Harrison (knee) are probable to play their first games this season. Safety Troy Polamalu (calf) should suit up after missing the last two contests.

The addition of Harrison and Polamalu will be a huge benefit long-term, but defenses do sometimes struggle in the first game with injured players back, even when they are All-Pros.

The expected return of Mendenhall could provide more immediate dividends with the rushing game averaging 65 YPG (ranked 31st) and a league-worst 2.6 yards per carry. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman will still get carries, but won’t be burdened with leading the attack.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has the NFL’s second-best quarterback rating despite learning new coordinator Todd Haley’s system. He’s been sacked nine times in three games and a better running attack will slow the pass rush down and provide better balance.

The Steelers have one of the best home field advantages in football. The Jets were the first victim at Heinz Field this year, a 27-10 Steelers victory as 4½-point favorites. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in their last four home games dating back to last year, allowing a miniscule 5.0 PPG.

These teams only meet every four years in the regular season. The home team won and covered the last two with the ‘under’ going 2-0.

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Seahawks Fly Cross-Country For Clash With Cam, Carolina

Among the many surprises in the first month of the 2012 NFL season is an apparent power shift in the NFC to the Western Division, which is both good and bad news for the Seattle Seahawks (2-2), who appear to be part of the renaissance.

For the Carolina Panthers (1-3)? Regarding good and bad, it’s been mostly the latter the first four weeks of the season.

Regardless, as the calendar moves into October, both the Seahawks and Panthers appear to be fast approaching forks in the road for the 2012 campaign. Developments elsewhere in their respective divisions suggest that each are going to need to accelerate their pace in the next few weeks, or playoff hopes could be dashed before Halloween.

Thus, there’s a bit of urgency attached to Sunday’s clash between the sides at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. A quick midweek check of the Don Best NFL odds screen notes that host Carolina is a 3-point favorite at practically every Las Vegas sports book, with the total at 43½-44 and shaded to the ‘under.'

Kickoff time on Sunday will be later in the afternoon at 4:05 p.m. (ET), with FOX providing the TV coverage. Chris Myers, Tim Ryan and Jamie Maggio will provide the commentary.

Seattle has provided interesting copy for a variety of reasons this season. The new-look uniforms, featuring florescent green highlights and a new “wolf grey” color, have caused a stir (mostly positive). Then there was the wild Monday night game vs. Green Bay two weeks ago that proved the impetus for the NFL to settle its contract dispute with the referees. Along the way, the defense has emerged as one of the best. Competition in the NFC West has also upgraded, as the Seahawks, despite posting home wins over the Cowboys and Packers, have already lost on the road to improve division rivals Arizona and St. Louis.

But now there is some real concern about an offense that has been mostly stumbling the past few weeks. Wisconsin rookie QB Russell Wilson is being contained within the pocket, and the passing game has become mistake-prone. Only once in three weeks have the Seahawks exceeded 16 points.

Some observers are blaming ultra-conservative play-calling from offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell for making things harder on Wilson, who has been hampered by limiting most of his throws to obvious passing downs. Many Seahawks fans are suggesting that Bevell and head coach Pete Carroll might as well opt for veteran QB Matt Flynn, the ex-Packer who was signed to a big-money free-agent contract in the offseason, if they’re going to be running such a bulletproof offense for Wilson.

If nothing else, Flynn is a viable default option in the Seahawks’ version of the West Coast offense. Still, there is concern about a wide receiving corps that has also had its problems gaining separation and remains a question mark. There was a reason Carroll was willing to gamble on taking a look at Terrell Owens in the preseason, as Seattle still lacks a legit downfield receiving threat.

And as good as the Seahawks’ defense has been, the team is not going to make the playoffs unless the offense begins to contribute more consistently. At the moment, Wilson – guilty of three picks last week in a 19-13 loss to the Rams in St. Louis – is simply not providing the necessary spark on the attack end. Stay tuned for further developments.

Defense, however, continues to key Seattle, whose airtight stop unit has also not allowed more than 20 points in a game this season. In particular, the Seahawks have been able to stuff opposing run games, as foes are gaining only a puny 3 yards per carry against the stout Seattle rush defense. Seattle also has 12 sacks through the first four weeks, including five from DE Chris Clemons.

Those developments against the run and rushing the passer should be of real concern to a Carolina offense that has also moved in fits and spurts this campaign and needs to establish its infantry diversion to give QB Cam Newton his best chance of igniting the Panther attack.

But we saw a couple of weeks ago against the Giants (as well as the opener vs. the Bucs) what can happen to Carolina’s “O” when the running game is stuffed at the line of scrimmage and when Newton’s escape routes out of the pocket are clogged. Cam has also been prone to pouting spells (prompting an upbraiding by vert WR Steve Smith in the Giants game) as his performances to date, which include just four TD passes and five picks, suggest a possible “sophomore slump” for the ex-Auburn Heisman trophy winner.

What success foes have experienced on the ground vs. the Seahawks thus far have been on draws and inside trap runs, taking advantage of the aggressive push by the Seattle defensive front. Expect the Panthers to isolate RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (if healthy for the latter) in such situations on Sunday.

On the plus side for the Panthers has been an improvement from their own pass rush which was a point of emphasis in the offseason. They’ve upgraded in that area, recording 12 sacks thus far, with Oklahoma rookie DE Frank Alexander emerging as a contributor. Although they’re also allowing 31 ppg over their last three games.

But the Panthers’ psyche (and that of Newton) has appeared a bit fragile this season, and we wonder how the team reacts to blowing a late lead last week at Atlanta, when the Falcons drove from their own one-yard line to a game-winning field goal in the last minute. With a bye week on deck, Carolina needs to develop some momentum in a hurry, or else it will be hitting late October with only one win, and its playoff hopes all but dashed.

Pointspread-wise, there are some Seahawks trends worth noting, especially recent successes as an underdog (8-1 vs. spread last nine receiving points) and an overall 13-5 mark against the number in their last 18 games on the board since early last season. The Seattle defense and the offense’s recent struggles behind Wilson have also combined for a potent ‘under’ recipe, as Seattle is ‘under’ in its first four games this season.

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Patriots Renew Rivalry With Peyton Manning, Broncos

The New England Patriots face an old foe on Sunday in quarterback Peyton Manning, this time as a member of the Denver Broncos.

The Don Best Pro Odds screen opened New England as 6½-point favorites, but it’s now moved up to -7 at some wagering outlets. The total is a healthy 51½ and CBS will have the late afternoon broadcast from Gillette Stadium at 4:25 p.m. (ET).

New England (2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) has had a tough start and is already chasing elite teams like Houston (4-0) and Baltimore (3-1) in the AFC. The Ravens already own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Patriots after beating them at home (31-30) two weeks ago in a thriller.

Despite the Patriots’ .500 record, the Don Best Linemakers Poll still ranks them second in the AFC (100.1 rating) behind Houston. Denver (97.4) is fifth in the conference.

Coach Bill Belichick’s team is fortunate to be 2-2 after a mammoth comeback at Buffalo last week. Trailing 21-7 in the fourth quarter, Tom Brady and company scored 35 unanswered points in less than 13 minutes (52-28 final).

Brady threw for 340 yards and three TDS, but the bigger news was the 247 team rushing yards. Stevan Ridley has looked very good overall in his second year, but it was undrafted free agent Brandon Bolden who burst onto the scene with 137 yards on 16 carries.

With the running game going, New England can really click offensively with the middle of the field open for Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Denver’s defense ranks seventh in the league in total yards (308 YPG), but is certainly vulnerable this week on the road.

The Patriots home crowd will be demanding a good performance this week. The only home game so far was a shocking 20-18 loss to Arizona as 13-point favorites in Week 2. The team went 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) at Gillette last year including the playoffs.

The Broncos (2-2 SU and ATS) are coming off a much-needed 37-6 home win over Oakland as 6½-point favorites. Manning (96.9 rating, ranked 10th) has been up-and-down this season after signing as a free agent and coming off neck surgery. He was great last Sunday (30-of-38 for 338 yards, three TDS) with the porous and injured Raiders ‘D’ a reason.

Running back Willis McGahee also shook off a ribs injury to rush for 112 yards on 19 carries. He is important to take the pressure off Manning, especially against better defenses.

The 36-year-old Manning had had success against Belichick’s defense the last few meetings while playing for Indy. Look for him to attack the middle of the field against the Pats suspect safety tandem of Patrick Chung and Steven Gregory (questionable, hip).

New England’s defense is improved some at 366.8 YPG (ranked 20th), but is still very young and susceptible to the big play. Rookie Dont’a Hightower (hamstring) is questionable, and his absence would be a big blow to an already thin linebacker core.

An interesting development is that Denver center J.D. Walton (ankle) is on injured reserve, which means longtime former Patriot Dan Koppen will start.

These teams met in the Divisional Playoff round last year. New England absolutely pasted the Broncos at home 45-10, but that was with Tim Tebow at quarterback. It won’t be nearly as easy against Manning.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

6) Houston Texans, 177
5) Tennessee Titans, 198
4) Baltimore Ravens, 203
3) New Orleans Saints, 205
2) Pittsburgh Steelers, 217
1) Cincinnati Bengals, 255

25) Indianapolis Colts, 91
26) San Diego Chargers, 87
27) New England Patriots, 86
28) Kansas City Chiefs, 78
T29) Buffalo Bills, 75
31) New Jersey Giants, 65

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday........

13) Three of top five teams got beat Saturday, with LSU/Florida State getting blanked in the second half on the road, first time since 2008 that three of the top five teams lost on the same day.

12) Florida State led 16-0 at halftime in Raleigh, but Seminole QB Manuel took an awful sack in Wolfpack territory when Seminoles were up 16-10, costing his team a shot a field goal that would've been very helpful about an hour later. NC State was missing three starters on offensive line.

11) If you like to invest in games, you can spend hours looking at stats, like some of us do, or you can just read the papers, and go against the teams who appear on that week's police blotter........
-- TCU's QB was suspended after a DUI: Frogs (-7) lost on the up.
-- Missouri had five guys suspended; Tigers (-7) lost on the up.
-- Wake Forest had five guys suspended; Deacons (+7) lost 19-14, but at least they covered the spread.

Winning two of three by that method ain't bad.

10) Miami had a WR drop a wide-open TD on the first play of the game, and it was all downhill from there, as they got bamboozled 41-3 in Chicago by Notre Dame. They'll be payback down the road for this one.

Quick lookalike: Miami coach Al Golden and the late George Allen, who coached the Rams and Redskins. He has some of Allen's mannerisms.

9) Wheels have completely fallen off at Auburn, which lost 24-7 at home to a dysfunctional Arkansas team. Is it possible for a coach to be on the hot seat less than two years after he won a national title? Nothing has gone well for coach Chizik since Cam Newton left town.

8) LSU was supposed to have improved QB play this year, but they've scored 18 points in their last two road games, they converted only 1-13 on 3rd down Saturday with only 8 first downs in an ugly 14-6 loss at Florida. The offensive coordinator at LSU makes $750,000 a year; could be a long week for him.

7) Duke is 5-1, its best start since 1994; Blue Devils beat Virginia 42-17, after trailing 17-14 at the half. Duke is coached by David Cutcliffe, who had a decent stint at Ole Miss but got run out of town after Eli Manning went on to the NFL, despite having only one losing season in Oxford.

6) ESPN might want to think twice about airing BYU games on weeknights; they've already had a 7-6 loss to Boise State, a 6-3 win over Utah Stateon the nation's airwaves, a couple of snoozefests. Conference games are more fun to watch, that is almost always true.

5) North Carolina outrushed Virginia Tech 339-40, thumped Hokies in Chapel Hill, 48-34. UNC survived 15 penalties for 126 yards. This is as bad as the Hokies have played in years.

4) If you bet on Central Michigan (+11.5) Saturday, someone upstairs has it out for you; Chippewas were down 5 in the last minute, and Toledo kicked a FG to go up 43-35 with 0:54 left, something like that. You know it is a bad day when Toledo runs pick-6 back with 0:38 left to cover, 50-35. Rockets also had a punt return for TD and another pick-6 earlier.

3) There were 23 unbeatens coming into this week; now there are 16.

2) Penn State outscored Northwestern 22-0 in 4th quarter to hand the Wildcats their first loss of the year, 39-28. ESPN's Brian Griese went out of his way to praise the coaching QB McGloin has been getting this year, a not so subtle dig at the old QB coach, Jay Paterno.

1) Ohio State 63, Nebraska 38. Cornhuskers' coach Bo Pelini played at Ohio State; you get the feeling these two teams are going to be great rivals, both on the field and on the recruiting trail.

Buckeyes scored a TD on a 16-yard run with 0:48 left; hmmm.....

[StarDust Bum]

NFL weather watch: 100 percent chance of rain for ATL/WSH

NFL game weather and resulting stadium conditions can have a significant impact on player performance and the outcome of football games. Bettors should take weather conditions into consideration, especially when placing over/under wagers.

Here are the matchups being threatened by inclement weather Sunday:

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants (-9, 43)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 75 percent chance of rain. Winds will be out of the west.

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 43)

Site: Heinz Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 40 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the west.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (3, 50.5)

Site: FedEx Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 100 percent chance of rain. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 41.5)

Site: Bank of America Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 45 percent of precipitation. Winds will blow out of the north at 8 mph.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (5.5, 40.5)

Site: EverBank Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-80s and partly cloudy skies at kickoff. However, the threat of a thunderstorm increases to 25 percent in the
early evening hours. Winds will be light out of the east.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51.5)

Site: Gillette Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 75 percent chance of rain. Winds will be calm.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-10, 45)

Site: Candlestick Park

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and partly cloudy skies. The real weather story here will be the westerly 17 mph winds.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 5
After winning Thursday night with their strong opinion on St. Louis as a home underdog vs. Arizona (driving an opening line of +3 down to +1.5 or +1 in a game that would yield a 17-3 outright victory). Sharps are now hoping for similar success with their early action in games for Sunday and Monday. Let’s run through what Sharps are thinking about this weekend’s action in rotational order.

Note that Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay all have byes, so there are only 13 games on the NFL card.

ATLANTA AT WASHINGTON:
The interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 52 has been bet down to 51. The team side line of Atlanta -3 has stood solid. We would expect Sharps to fade any public move off that critical number. But this is the kind of game that could divide the public too. Most Sharps would prefer the home dog on principle, but think the number is basically right on the money, barring any sort of surprise injury news over the weekend. Sharps are impressed with both Atlanta as a playoff threat, and with Washington as a dog with upset potential. That all cancels out at this line.

PHILADELPHIA AT PITTSBURGH:
Initial interest on the underdog here as Pittsburgh -4 was bet down to -3.5 There wasn’t enough passion to bring the line down to the key number of three, however. Many Sharps had given Philly the best NFC Power Rating when the season was about to begin. Now the team now isn’t even the top-rated side in Pennsylvania, with this line opening a point over the standard home field advantage. Sharps did like the Under though, as an opener of 44.5 is down to 43.

GREEN BAY AT INDIANAPOLIS:
This line opened Green Bay by 6.5…which is usually a sign that oddsmakers believe the “sharp” side is going to be the dog, and they’re inviting the public to bet the line higher. Instead, Sharps stepped in and took the line to seven. Some of that is probably position-taking from Sharps hoping to buy back on the dog later at a better price, but there is a feeling from some that Green Bay is the much better team, given Indy’s overall youth. There’s also a contingent of Sharps who are betting the NFC over the AFC because of the relative strength shown thus far in the season (consistent with Philly money vs. Pittsburgh in the game above). The total hasn’t drawn much interest yet.

CLEVELAND AT NY GIANTS:
Serious interest on the Browns here. That flies in the face of the NFC/AFC theory, but IS consistent with the general view that the Giants can't be trusted as big home favorites! You’ll recall they almost lost outright to Tampa Bay on this field a few weeks ago as favorites of more than a TD. Here the line opened at -10.5, but has been bet down by Sharps to -9 or -8.5. Sharps also like betting rested teams at value prices. Cleveland hasn’t played since last Thursday. A lot of good “intangible” reasons to take the dog at a double digit price. Stragglers will have to decide if all the value has been bet out now. No interest yet in the total.

TENNESSEE AT MINNESOTA:
Tennessee earned support at the opener of +6.5, largely because Sharps don’t trust the Vikings as favorites, especially here at this price, in what Sharps figure to be a low scoring contest. Sharps generally lean dogwise anyway. Yes, Minnesota has taken out San Francisco and Detroit the last two weeks, but the game stats haven’t matched the results. Tennessee is now +5.5. We’ve also seen a big move on the Under from a total of 45.5 down to 44 or even 43.5. This is an indoor game, so that’s based on team matchups (like a new QB for Tennessee) rather than weather. Sharps mostly don’t have a lot of respect for either of these offenses right now.

MIAMI AT CINCINNATI:
Miami has impressed in recent weeks, as this opening line of Cincinnati -5.5 was bet all the way down to -3. Normally you only see a move that big when a starting QB or star player is announced as “out.” But that's not the case here. Sharps like what they’ve seen from Miami in terms of their “keeping it close” potential, against the likes of the NY Jets and Arizona the past two weeks, and were happy to grab any points above the field goal. The total has gone up a point from 44 to 45, which suggests good football weather for Sunday in Cincinnati.

BALITMORE AT KANSAS CITY:
Like Green Bay/Kansas City, the opener saw the road team laying -6.5. But, unlike that game, Sharps didn’t drive the favorite up. They stepped in tentatively on the home dog to bring the number down to +6. Some of that is from old school guys who love getting points with KC in this stadium, which is always a challenging place to play for the visiting team. Still, Baltimore had extra time to prepare, and Kansas City’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be, so some Sharps may be waiting to step in on the Ravens if the line drops any further.

SEATTLE AT CAROLINA:
Not much betting interest on this game either way. The home team is favored by three…and each team has a quarterback who Sharps are questioning right now in terms of having “the right stuff.” Enthusiasm is fading for Wilson of Seattle after his struggles thus far, and Cam Newton’s engines have cooled off dramatically since 2011. Sharps will fade any public move off the key number Sunday, but that's unlikely to materialize , as these aren’t high profile teams in terms of public betting.

CHICAGO AT JACKSONVILLE:
Jacksonville joins the list of home dogs bettors are able to back this week. Sharps liked them at the opener of +5.5. We’re now seeing +4.5 in many stores. Some of that is situational: Chicago is a road favorite playing on a short week after a road Monday Night game, historically a bad spot for teams. This line move is likely more anti-Chicago than pro-Jacksonville, as they lost badly last week on this same field.

DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND:
This will likely be the a heaviest bet game in Vegas sportsbooks because Peyton Manning is facing Tom Brady in the showcase matchup of the Sunday slate. We haven’t seen much Sharp interest yet, though. New England opened at -6.5 and has stayed there. That suggests that Sharps DON’T like New England. Obviously if Sharps wanted Brady, they would've grabbed him at less than the touchdown . So we likely have the Sharps preferring the dog, but hoping they can get +7 or better on game day after the public steps in. The total is up from 51.5 to 52 or 52.5, suggesting decent game day weather for these two noted passers. Game day may see a tug-of-war between squares on New England -6.5, and Sharps on Denver +7.

BUFFALO AT SAN FRANCISCO:
The old school guys who like to take any double digit dog moved in on Buffalo at +10. We’re now seeing +9.5 in most places. It’s telling though that the move was only a half a point. This wasn’t bandwagon support for the road dog, just line value support from a certain type of Sharp. The total is up a half a point from 44 to 44.5, keyed by the style of game Buffalo has been playing this year. They’ve had some very high scoring games thanks to a shaky defense and a turnover prone offense.

SAN DIEGO AT NEW ORLEANS:
This line opened at New Orleans -3. Sharps hit the favorite hard enough to move off the key number to -3.5 and -4 in some places. We’ve told you in the past that it takes a lot of interest (read M-O-N-E-Y) to move off a three. Sharps have spoken! Squares won’t get to back a popular home favorite at that critical number on game night. Moral of the story - Act quickly if you like a favorite!

HOUSTON AT NY JETS:
Sharps have shown a lot of respect for Houston (particularly when healthy) this year and last, and they’ve shown a lot of disdain for the Jets. So, it was no surprise at all when this line opened at Houston -7 and got bet up to -8. The opener may have struck some as being high, but oddsmakers have the Texans to be at least 10 points better than the Jets on a neutral field right now…and Sharps had it more like 11 or better based on their quick investments here.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, October 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta -3 500
Washington - Over 51 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia +3.5 500
Pittsburgh - Over 44 500

Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET Green Bay -6.5 500
Indianapolis - Under 49 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -9 500
N.Y. Giants - Under 43.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +3 500
Cincinnati - Under 45.5 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -6 500
Kansas City - Over 47 500

Seattle - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +1 500
Carolina - Under 42.5 500

Chicago - 4:05 PM ET Jacksonville +6.5 500
Jacksonville - Under 40 500

Tennessee - 4:25 PM ET Tennessee +6 500
Minnesota - Over 44 500

Denver - 4:25 PM ET New England -5.5 500 (DBAB)
New England - Over 51 500

Buffalo - 4:25 PM ET San Francisco -10 500
San Francisco - Over 44.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Best Bets:

San Diego - 8:20 PM ET San Diego +3 500

New Orleans - Under 52.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Reeling NY Jets Host Texans On Monday Night Football

The New York Jets may be the most maligned 2-2 team in NFL history. They host the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football as a solid underdog.

The Don Best Pro Odds opened the Jets +7 and it’s up to 8½-9. The total is a low 41½, and ESPN's Monday night crew will begin at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from MetLife Stadium.

The Jets (2-2 straight up and against the spread) are tied for the AFC East lead, but one would never know it by reading the local New York papers. Almost everyone feels they are doomed after losing star cornerback Darrelle Revis (knee) and receiver Santonio Holmes (foot) for the year in the last two weeks.

Coach Rex Ryan knows the injuries are a real blow, but hopes his team reached a low point in last Sunday’s 34-0 loss to San Fran as 3½-point home ‘dogs. The offense generated just 145 total yards and 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers said the Jets quit. Ryan claimed the team was ‘just tired,’ which is one of his normal laughable statements.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez has been a big part of the problem (69.6 rating, ranked 30th). His receiving weapons this week are almost non-existent with Holmes out and rookie Stephen Hill (hamstring) doubtful. Tight end Dustin Keller (hamstring) is listed as questionable after missing the last three games, but that seems optimistic.

There was a rumor that owner Woody Johnson would push for Tim Tebow to start playing more, but there doesn’t appear to be much truth to that. Sanchez would really benefit from the running game picking up (86.5 YPG, ranked 24th), but both Shonn Greene (2.8 ypc) and Bilal Powell (3.8 YPG) are average talent at best.

The Texans (4-0 SU and ATS) are one of two undefeated teams left after Arizona lost at St. Louis last night. They are the favorite to win the AFC (+140) in the current future odds as well as to win the Super Bowl (+350).

Coach Gary Kubiak is certainly enjoying his change of fortune. Houston didn’t even make the playoffs his first five years and it wasn’t certain he would keep his job. A tough loss at Baltimore in the Divisional Round last year appears to have built momentum for this season.

The health of quarterback Matt Schaub is another reason for success. He missed the last six regular season games and the playoffs with a foot injury. This year, he has a 105.3 rating (ranked third) and the offense is second overall in points (31.5 PPG).

The Texans defense had some questions heading into the season after losing defensive end Mario Williams to free agency and the trade of middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans. However, the unit ranks first overall in both total yards (273 PPG) and points (14 PPG).

The Jets are hoping that the Texans’ fast start is a bye-product of an easy schedule. They have been 13-point favorites twice against Tennessee and Miami. Their game at Denver was the only real tough one (31-25 win as 1-point favorites).

Houston is 2-0 on the road this year and 7-1 ATS in its last eight away overall.

The Jets have won all five lifetime meetings (4-1 ATS) against the Texans. Houston did cover the last game in November 2010, a 30-27 loss as 6½-point road ‘dogs. That was also the first ‘over’ after the ‘under’ started 4-0.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 8

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Texans at Jets: What bettors need to know
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Houston Texans at New York Jets (9, 40.5)

Rex Ryan called this year's edition of the New York Jets his best team yet. Crushing injuries to two of his best players may prevent Ryan from ever finding out if he was right. New York will look to bounce back from a humiliating home loss to San Francisco when it hosts the undefeated Houston Texans on Monday night. The Jets absorbed another body blow this week when they learned that former Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes would be lost for the season with a Lisfranc injury suffered in Sunday's 34-0 loss. That robs the team of its best offensive playmaker one week after all-world cornerback Darrelle Revis suffered a season-ending knee injury.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Texans -9, O/U 40.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s under partly cloudy skies. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (4-0): Houston has fashioned its perfect record with the blueprint that Ryan has been seeking: A balanced offense built on a bruising running game and a dominating defense that leads the league in a slew of categories, including fewest points allowed per game (14). Three of the Texans' four wins have been by at least 20 points, and they led by 20 points before holding off a late comeback in a 31-25 win at Denver in Week 3. Quarterback Matt Schaub has looked sharp in his return from last season's Lisfranc injury, completing 67 percent of his passes and throwing for seven touchdowns against one interception. Arian Foster has scored four rushing touchdowns and is averaging 95 yards per game on the ground.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-2): New York is coming off a woeful effort in the loss to the 49ers, managing only 145 total yards and nine first downs. The whispers for Tim Tebow are getting louder after starting quarterback Mark Sanchez completed 13 of 29 passes for only 103 yards and an interception. It marked the third consecutive game that Sanchez has completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes. Rookie wideout Stephen Hill, the team's second-round draft pick, sat out last week's game with a concussion and could miss Monday's matchup. The ground game continues to go nowhere - running back Shonn Greene has rushed for only 97 yards on 41 carries in the last three games.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 5 games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Schaub has won eight consecutive starts dating to last season.

2. The Jets have won all five meetings with the Texans, including a 30-27 victory in November 2010 when Sanchez threw for 315 yards and three TDs.

3. Texans WR Andre Johnson needs 76 yards to reach 10,000 for his career.