The Bum's NFL October Best Bets !

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NFL October Record:


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/21/12 11-*10-*1 52.38% 0 Detail
10/18/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/15/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/14/12 11-*12-*1 47.83% -*1100 Detail
10/11/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/08/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/07/12 11-*13-*0 45.83% -*1650 Detail
10/04/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/01/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 39-*41-*2 48.75% -*3050



Monday, October 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 8:30 PM ET Chicago -6.5 500

Chicago - Over 46.5 500

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Close Calls - Week 7

October 23, 2012

Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the 4th quarter last week in the Week 7 NFL games. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

San Francisco 49ers (-7½) 13, Seattle Seahawks 6 (37½): San Francisco led 10-6 late in the third quarter after the only touchdown in the game, but the 49ers would push the lead to seven with just over five minutes to go. The spread bounced around from seven to nine throughout the week with the majority likely right at the touchdown spot, making the final minutes even more interesting. The Seahawks got the ball back at the 11-yard line with just 1:36 to go, as on second down Russell Wilson was sacked, pinning the Seahawks even deeper. A false start worsened things, then on 4th and 17, Russell Wilson completed a pass to Ben Obomanu that ended up just short of the first down. On the play, a chop block penalty was called and the infraction was in the end zone resulting in a safety to the delight of those on the popular 49ers. Seattle did not get the first down however, so the ball went to San Francisco on downs anyway with only 43 seconds left and Seattle with no timeouts. Coach Harbaugh elected to decline the penalty, effectively ending the game, rather than taking the points and leaving the slimmest of shots for the Seahawks with a kickoff after a safety. The final margin stayed at seven in one of the most memorable and controversial NFL finishes relative to the spread ever.

Tennessee Titans (+4½) 35, Buffalo Bills 35 (46½): Neither defense proved overly effective in this AFC clash as a 21-20 halftime lead for the Titans pushed to 28-20 in the third quarter. The Bills answered quickly and with two effective drives led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills were in business, leading 34-28 entering the fourth quarter. Both offenses would stall, but late in the game and as the Bills attempted to get another first down with just over three minutes to go Fitzpatrick was intercepted, giving the Titans a great chance near midfield. Tennessee needed seven so a field goal was not in the picture as it took a fourth down play for the Titans to connect as Nate Washington snagged a pass in the end zone with just over a minute to go. Buffalo appeared deflated and did not pose a serious threat on its final possession.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) 21, Arizona Cardinals 14 (39): The Vikings took command of this NFC battle in the third quarter after a 31-yard interception return touchdown put them up 21-7 despite very limited yardage production in the game. Arizona got stuck at midfield a few times in the fourth quarter, but with just over a minute to go, the Cardinals struck the end zone to get the margin at seven and leave a push for many on the game, although early week lines were lower than seven. Minnesota had the ball on the Arizona 38 to start its final possession after the failed onside kick and the Vikings were certainly in field goal range late, but the Cardinals ran out of timeouts and Minnesota was ultimately able to run out the clock after rushing for eight yards on fourth and five on the final play instead of attempting a kick.

Dallas Cowboys (-2½) 19, Carolina Panthers 14 (45): The Cowboys had a hard time pulling away from Carolina as Dallas took just a 13-7 lead into the fourth quarter and Carolina took the lead early in the final frame with a touchdown run. After an exchange of punts, Dallas had a productive drive and got back on top with a field goal with just over three minutes to go, but still sat short of the road favorite spread. Carolina only went 20 yards on the next drive and Dallas took the ball in great field position as Dan Bailey pushed the margin to five points with less than a minute to go in the game. The Panthers got 34 yards in the final drive, but could not convert for the upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) 24, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (47): The Steelers and Bengals were locked at 17-17 entering the fourth quarter in a game where the line bounced right around even or one either way. Pittsburgh dominated the yardage in the game and the Steelers punched in a touchdown very early in the final quarter to go up by seven. Cincinnati had the ball three times in the fourth quarter, but they produced just one first down and after Pittsburgh got the ball back with about four minutes to go, they did not need to give it back. The game ended with the Steelers on the Cincinnati eight-yard line and the game stayed just 'under'.

Chicago Bears (-6½) 13, Detroit Lions 7 (45): The Lions wound up outgaining the Bears in this sloppy Monday night game, but Chicago held a 13-0 shutout most of the way. Detroit had a fumble near the goal line in the third quarter as well as an 85-yard drive that ended in an interception in the fourth quarter, but they did finally find the end zone with 30 seconds to go in a spread-changing play with the Bears favored by 6½ at most outlets late in the week for a great backdoor cover.

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NFL Rewind - Week 7

October 24, 2012

As we rapidly approach the halfway mark of another NFL season the picture is starting to become clearer on many levels. The cream is rising to the top, while a few upstarts who touted impressive early season records are starting to come back to their typical performance. But, this is the NFL, a league of ultra-parity, where truly in any week, for the most part, any team is capable of pulling off the big upset. Let's examine the numbers…

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

Performance Ratings

Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended

Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS

6 HOU 50.2 4 50.3 2 100.5 1 31

5 SF 47.9 6 49.1 3 96.9 2 16

5 CHI 42.6 13 51.4 1 94.0 3 23

3 DEN 50.3 3 42.3 8 92.6 4 1

4 NE 54.9 1 34.6 22 89.6 5 29

3 PIT 47.6 7 41.0 12 88.6 6 22

3 PHI 42.3 14 45.5 7 87.8 7 14

4 GB 45.3 9 42.1 9 87.4 8 8

3 WAS 54.4 2 32.4 25 86.7 9 28

5 NYG 49.8 5 36.1 18 85.9 10 21

3 DAL 43.3 10 41.0 12 84.3 11 9

5 MIN 41.9 16 41.9 10 83.8 12 31

4 SEA 35.9 27 47.1 5 83.0 13 10

3 MIA 36.7 24 46.2 6 82.8 14 17

2 DET 41.6 17 40.8 14 82.4 15 2

3 SD 41.4 18 40.7 15 82.1 16 26

6 ATL 47.1 8 34.3 23 81.3 17 18

4 ARI 31.8 31 48.6 4 80.4 18 11

1 KC 41.4 18 37.6 17 79.0 19 25

2 TB 40.0 20 39.0 16 79.0 19 20

3 STL 36.9 23 41.1 11 78.0 21 5

3 CIN 39.2 21 35.1 21 74.4 22 32

5 BAL 42.2 15 31.6 27 73.9 23 13

3 NYJ 35.6 28 36.1 19 71.6 24 3

2 OAK 36.1 26 35.4 20 71.5 25 7

3 BUF 42.9 12 28.2 30 71.1 26 28

1 CAR 38.3 22 31.3 28 69.7 27 12

3 IND 35.5 29 33.6 24 69.1 28 19

2 NO 43.0 11 22.9 32 65.9 29 16

1 CLE 32.9 30 31.8 26 64.7 30 24

3 TEN 36.4 25 23.4 31 59.7 31 6

1 JAC 27.3 32 28.9 29 56.3 32 5



*Blended SOS is a weighted average of opponent's performance ratings and opponent's record

Back at the top of the heap are the Houston Texans, who continue to impress outside their SNF loss 2 weeks ago vs. Green Bay. That game was more a case of "probability" where the Packers needed that game and the Texans were overdue to pick up their first loss of the season versus truly whom the better team is in my opinion - which is supported by my numbers. If you follow this column you know for our money the Texans have been the best team in football extending back to early 2011 before QB Matt Schaub went down - and with him healthy and under center they have picked up right where they left off last season, including exacting revenge on the Ravens in impressive fashion this past Sunday.

What is interesting this season is the top 3 defenses in the NFL according to my numbers, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, currently comprise the top 3 spots in my performance rankings. Who says defense doesn't win championships anymore?

Denver remained strong at #4, as their Strength of Schedule (SOS) has continued to improve and currently sits at #1 in the NFL. Sitting at 3-3 that is not good news for the rest of the AFC, ESPECIALLY considering that according to my numbers, Denver will face the easiest closing schedule going forward as measured by opponent's performance stat ranking, and also according to opponent's record. There is a very solid chance DEN will wind up with the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs, believe it or not.

New England remains in the top 5, followed by the pair of keystone state teams trailing close behind at #6 and #7. Green Bay sits at #8, having faced the second toughest schedule amongst the top ten teams in the ratings.

Next up a trio of NFC East teams check in at #9, #10, #11 - Dallas has played the best thus far when adjusting the numbers for SOS - and their meeting with the New York Giants this week will be a critical game for NFC East superiority as a Cowboys win would give them the important tie-breaker by virtue of a season sweep over the defending champs.

Behind that trio is a pair of surprise NFC teams in Seattle and Minnesota, both of whom have climbed the rankings this season driven by very strong defenses. Nine of the top 13 teams ending with Minnesota are from the NFC, further supporting the point of NFC dominance to this point in the season.

Detroit is the highest rated under .500 team sitting at #15 - a lot of their record is driven by a tough SOS which only trails Denver in strength thus far. Unfortunately for the Lions their schedule does not ease up much like the Broncos does, as going forward it is rated #2 according to opponents win %, and #13 according to opponent's performance stat ranking.

Atlanta, although still undefeated, sits way down at #17 against an average SOS - their offense is playing well but not elite checking in at #8, while their defense is still struggling ranking #23 in the NFL, including #32 vs. the rush. The Falcons have quite a few holes, and their hot start is a bit of a mirage - and likely money making opportunity as the calendar turns to November.

Baltimore sits way down at #23, the lowest they have been ranked at this point in any season since this analysis commenced. The issue with the Ravens is a defense that is being gashed for 23ppg, ranking #27 in my performance stats including #23 vs. the rush. If Flacco cannot lead that offense to significantly more consistency and production than the current 24.9ppg, Baltimore could miss the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

Right behind Baltimore are the New York Jets, who have been ranked between #24 and #29 since Wk2, driven by a subpar offense (ranked #28) and a tough SOS (ranked #3). Of the bottom six teams in the ratings five reside in either the AFC or NFC South, including surprise strugglers Carolina and New Orleans. Probably the most surprising team of the season in a bad way is New Orleans, who has not ranked above #27 in the performance ratings in any week this season. Many expected a step back for the Saints this year, but not many predicted a team that would have 2 wins thru the first 7 weeks of the season.

Next up, here are my projected standings after Week 7. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.



AFC East Wins Loss
NE 8.99 7.01
MIA 7.94 8.07
NYJ 7.42 8.58
BUF 6.93 9.08

NFC East Wins Loss
NYG 9.71 6.29
PHI 8.66 7.35
DAL 8.54 7.46
WAS 7.39 8.61


AFC North Wins Loss
BAL 9.15 6.85
PIT 9.05 6.95
CIN 6.60 9.40
CLE 4.72 11.28

NFC North Wins Loss
CHI 11.39 4.61
GB 9.54 6.46
MIN 8.38 7.62
DET 7.34 8.66


AFC South Wins Loss
HOU 12.85 3.15
IND 6.88 9.13
TEN 6.82 9.18
JAC 4.48 11.53

NFC South Wins Loss
ATL 10.70 5.30
TB 6.69 9.31
NO 5.87 10.13
CAR 5.38 10.62


AFC West Wins Loss
DEN 10.25 5.75
SD 7.83 8.17
OAK 6.31 9.69
KC 5.78 10.22

NFC West Wins Loss
SF 11.62 4.38
SEA 8.57 7.43
ARI 7.43 8.57
STL 6.81 9.19




AFC Playoffs:
#1 Houston
#2 Denver
#3 Baltimore vs. #6 Miami
#4 New England vs. #5 Pittsburgh

NFC Playoffs:
#1 San Francisco
#2 Chicago
#3 Atlanta vs. #6 Philadelphia
#4 N.Y. Giants vs. #5 Green Bay

I have updated the power rating of 10 teams, 4 up / 6 down, but maintained the balance in the ratings. Following those adjustments, and updating for actual wins and losses in Week 7, here are the teams that have a +/- 1 win move in the latest projections:

UP:
Pittsburgh +1.3
Chicago +1.2
Oakland +1.1
Tennessee +1.1

DOWN:
Cincinnati (1.0)

Interesting tidbit on this week's projected final standings goes is there was only two teams that moved in their projected finish in their division - New Orleans and Carolina flip-flopped spots with the Saints shifting to 3rd in the NFC South, and Carolina projected to finish in last place. The other 30 teams in the NFL all remained in their same spot I projected them to finish in last week's version - not bad, and shows as the season goes in this analysis really is accurate.

In the race for the 1st pick in the 2013 NFL draft Jacksonville remained the favorite, but Cleveland has moved even closer following their jump over Tennessee two weeks prior. Tennessee has picked up a couple of wins since QB Matt Hasselbeck has taken over, and would seem to be out of this mix if he continues playing. This race is Jacksonville's to lose, no question about it. If Jacksonville finished the season at their current rating of 56.3 that would be the worst season of any team since this analysis commenced; currently, the 2011 Colts hold the record for poor play as they rated 58.4 last season.

Last analysis for this week is my power rankings.

Power Rankings - Week 7
Rank Team
1 Houston
2 San Francisco
3 Chicago
4 Denver
5 Green Bay
6 New England
7 Pittsburgh
8 New York Giants
9 Dallas
10 Philadelphia
11 Seattle
12 Washington
13 Detroit
14 Atlanta
15 San Diego
15 New York Jets
17 Minnesota
17 Baltimore
19 Carolina
20 St. Louis
20 Miami
20 Arizona
23 New Orleans
24 Tampa Bay
25 Kansas City
26 Oakland
26 Cincinnati
26 Buffalo
29 Indianapolis
29 Cleveland
31 Tennessee
32 Jacksonville

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Tech Trends - Week 8

October 24, 2012

Thursday, Oct. 25 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

The underdog team is 5-1-1 in Vikings games TY (Minn. 1-3-1 as chalk). Bucs, based on recent trends.

Sunday, Oct. 28 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Rams 5-3 vs. line this season for Jeff Fisher, all as underdog. Conflicting "totals" numbers, Patriots "over" 32-12 last 44, Rams "under" 27-14 since late 2009. Rams, based on recent trends.

Titans 2-5 as chalk since LY. Colts "over" 2-0 on road TY, Titans "over" 2-1 at home. "Over" and slight to Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.

Road team is 6-0 vs. line in Jag games TY (Jags 4-0 vs. points away). Pack "over" 18-7 last 25 since late 2010 and "over" 8-1 last nine at Lambeau. "Over" and Jags, based on extended Pack "totals" and road-in-Jag trends.

Norv 1-3 SU and vs. line last four TY, Brownies 7-3-1 vs. line last 10 on board since late LY. Norv "over" vs. Denver last Monday but "under" 13-7 last 20. Browns and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Five of six Philly games TY decided by 3 points or fewer. Eagles 1-5 vs. line TY as dog team has covered in every Philly game. Falcons "under" 5-2 last seven since late LY, Eagles "under" 10-4 last 14. "Under" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

Pete Carroll 5-2 vs. line TY as dog has covered every Seahawks game; Pete 11-1 last 12 as dog and 16-5 last 21 vs. number. Lions 5-13 last 18 on board and 2-6 last 8 against points at Ford Field, and Jim Schwartz "over" 26-14-2 since late 2009. Seahawks, based on recent Pete Carroll trends.

Dolphins 7-1 vs. line last 8 away, Jets surprising 3-0 as chalk TY. Dolphins, based on team trends.

Note that Bears are 9-2 vs. line in Jay Cutler's last eleven starts. Bears also "over" 6-3 last 9 at Soldier Field. Panthers 6-3-1 "over" on road since Cam arrived LY. "Over" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.

Skins "over" 10-4 last 14, although Steel "under" last five at Heinz Field. Skins 4-1 as dog TY and 8-3 last 11 in role. Redskins, based on team trends.

Sunday, Oct. 28 - All games to start at 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Huge road series, Oakland 5-0 SU last five and 8-0-1 vs. spread last nine at Arrowhead. Road team is 16-1-1 vs. line in this series since 2003! "Unders" 7-1 last 8 in series too. Raiders and "under," based on series trends.

Cowboys 0-3 SU and vs. line at new Jerry Jones Stadium against G-Men. Coughlin 7-3 vs. line last 10 against Dallas although G-Men did lose opener vs. Jerry Jones TY. Giants have covered last 8 as visitor. Dallas 2-9 vs. line last 11 as host and "under" 15-6 last 22 since late in 2010 season, although "over" last three at home vs. Giants. Giants, based on series trends.

Sunday, Oct. 28 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Denver "over" 31-14 since late in 2009 season, Saints "over" 16-8 last 24 since late 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Oct. 29 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

SF 6-2 vs. line last eight meetings but note Harbaugh just 2-4 vs. spread last six on road and one of those was a loss at Glendale late LY. Whisenhunt has 6 of last 8 as home dog. Cards, based on team trends.

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Vikings, Buccaneers Clash On Thursday Night Football

The Minnesota Vikings may be the surprise team of the entire NFL. They look to keep the ‘good times rolling’ while hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.

The Don Best Pro Odds have just announced NFL Week 8 and Minnesota is 6½-point favorites with a total of 41½-42. The total is one of the lowest of the week. The NFL Network will have the 8:20 p.m. (ET) telecast from **** of America Field.

The Vikings were predicted to finish deep in the cellar of the competitive NFC North, which also includes the Packers, Bears and Lions. However, they’ve come out of the gate surprisingly strong at 5-2 straight up (3-3-1 against the spread).

Coach Leslie Frazier’s team has benefitted from some questionable competition. The latest example was yesterday’s 21-14 home win over Arizona as 7-point favorites. John Skelton was the opposing quarterback with Kevin Kolb injured. The Vikings have only played two teams that are currently over .500.

There is also concern at quarterback with Christian Ponder slowing down after a strong start. The second-year product from Florida State threw for just 58 yards on 17 attempts last game. He has six interceptions the last three weeks after none in the first four games.

Fortunately, running back Adrian Peterson is looking nothing like a guy coming off knee surgery. He has 652 yards on the season (4.8 per carry) and the team is ranked seventh in rushing overall (132.3 YPG).

The defense has also played well at 18.7 PPG allowed (ranked sixth). That’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-1 in the last six games, including 3-0 in the last three at home.

The Buccaneers are just 2-4 SU in coach Greg Schiano’s first season after a 35-28 home loss to New Orleans yesterday. They blew a 21-7 second quarter lead as Drew Brees (377 yards, four TDs) picked apart the league’s 31th-ranked pass defense (323 YPG) that is missing suspended cornerback Aqib Talib.

The ‘over’ is now 3-0 in Tampa Bay’s last three games, scoring 29.3 PPG and allowing 23 PPG.

Quarterback Josh Freeman (91.2 rating, ranked 11th) has piled up some good fantasy numbers the last three weeks (1,047 passing yards, seven TDs versus two picks), but needs to make the big play at the right time to get wins.

Freeman is capable of throwing on any defense when he is on, including this week. A balanced running attack would be key as well. Rookie Doug Martin has gone over the 120-yard mark in total rushing and receiving the last two weeks.

Schiano’s defense ranks third in the league against the run (76 YPG). The 3.1 yards per carry allowed is the best and this game will be very interesting if Peterson is contained and Ponder is forced to throw.

Tampa Bay (4-2 ATS) is 2-0 ATS on the road this year with close losses at tough Dallas (16-10) and the New York Giants (41-34). The Bucs are an incredible 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.

These teams met last year with the Buccaneers winning 24-20 as 1-point road ‘dogs. Freeman (243 yards) got the best of his counterpart Donovan McNabb even with Peterson rushing for 120 yards. They also won and covered the last meeting in Florida in 2008, a 19-13 win over 4½-point favorites.

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Buccaneers at Vikings

October 24, 2012


This week’s Thursday night NFL game takes us to Minneapolis where the Vikings will attempt to double their win total from a season ago against former division rival Tampa Bay.

Most books opened Minnesota (5-2 straight up, 3-3-1 against the spread) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 41. As of early Wednesday, the Vikings were favored by 6 ½ with the total moved up to 42. Gamblers can take the Buccaneers on the money line for a plus-325 payout (risk $100 to win $325).

Leslie Frazier’s team is unbeaten in four home games, compiling a 2-1-1 spread record. The Vikings won a 21-14 decision over Arizona last week as seven-point home favorites. The 35 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 38 ½-point total.

Adrian Peterson ran through the Cardinals for 153 yards and one touchdown on 23 carries. Percy Harvin had a three-yard touchdown catch from Christian Ponder, who was intercepted twice and threw for only 58 yards.

Nevertheless, Minnesota got the victory thanks to a stellar pass rush that was all over Arizona quarterback John Skelton for 60 minutes. Brian Robison had three sacks and Jared Allen had two to improve his season total to six.

Despite the doubters that found it unlikely that Peterson could be healthy and productive after tearing his ACL at Washington last December, the Oklahoma product is fourth in the NFL in rushing with 652 yards. The scary thing for the rest of the league is that he’s clearly getting stronger each week. Peterson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has three rushing scores, in addition to 22 catches for 135 yards.

Harvin is also enjoying a banner year, producing 1,142 all-purpose yards and four TDs. He had a game-opening kickoff return for a TD that was called back due to a penalty last week.

Ponder, the second-year signal caller out of FSU, has demonstrated steady improvement despite last week’s poor performance. He has connected on 67 percent of his throws for 1,492 yards with a 9/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Vikings are ranked sixth in the NFL in scoring defense, surrendering only 18.7 points per game.

Tampa Bay (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) is winless in a pair of road assignments, but it took the cash in both defeats at New York (41-34) and at Dallas (16-10). Greg Schiano’s squad is coming off a 35-28 loss at home to New Orleans as a one-point underdog.

On the bright side, third-year quarterback Josh Freeman played his best game of the year, throwing for 420 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. A potential fourth TD pass on the final play of the game appeared to be a game-tying score, but Mike Williams was penalized for illegal touching after going out of bounds before catching a dart from Freeman in the back of the end zone.

Another potential TD pass to Vincent Jackson was thwarted when Saints cornerback Malcolm Jenkins made a great hustle play, running down Jackson from across the field when he appeared poised to complete a 96-yard TD grab. But Jenkins brought him down at the two yard line and then the Saints mounted an incredible goal-line stand.

Jackson, who we should note had missed practice several times due to an injury before the game, still managed to set a team-record with 216 receiving yards on seven catches. Doug Martin rushed 16 times for 85 yards, including a 36-yard TD scamper that put Tampa Bay ahead 14-0 in the first quarter.

For the season, Freeman has completed 55.6 percent of his passes for 1,538 yards with an 11/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. As expected, Jackson has been an outstanding addition from the Chargers, hauling in 27 catches for 586 yards and five TDs.

Martin, the rookie out of Boise St., has 408 rushing yards and two TDs on 100 totes. He can also catch it out of the backfield, as evidenced by 13 receptions for 145 yards.

The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Bucs, 1-1 in its two road assignments. The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for the Vikings, 3-1 in their home games.

Dating back to October of 2001, Tampa Bay has won five in a row over the Vikings both SU and ATS. The ‘over’ has hit in six of the last nine head-to-head meetings.

Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday night at 8:25 p.m. Eastern on The NFL Network.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

As a home favorite on Frazier’s watch, Minnesota has posted a 3-4-1 spread record.

--The Rams, Jets, Seahawks and Texans share the NFL’s best ATS records (5-2).

--The Eagles have been the worst team for their backers, limping to a 1-4-1 spread record.

--The ‘over’ is an NFL-best 5-1 in New Orleans games.

--The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 6-1 for the Seahawks and Cardinals.

--The ‘over’ is on a 5-0 run for the Patriots, while the ‘under’ has cashed in four of the Rams’ last five games. The total is 47 for New England’s trip to St. Louis on Sunday. Jeff Fisher’s team had won outright in all three home games as an underdog before losing 30-20 to Green Bay last week. As of Wednesday, the Pats were favored by seven.

--Green Bay has won three of its last four games thanks to QB Aaron Rodgers, who has a 16/2 TD-INT ratio in those four contests.

--The highest total on the board (by far) in Week 8 is 55 ½ for New Orleans at Denver.

--Houston defensive end J.J. Watt leads the NFL in sacks with 10 ½. Green Bay LB Clay Matthews is second with nine.

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NFL Week 8 Preview: Buccaneers at Vikings

TAMPA BUCCANEERS (2-4)

at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-2)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Minnesota -6.5, Total: 42

The Vikings try to improve to 5-0 at home this season when they host the pesky Buccaneers on Thursday night.

Minnesota has tightened up its play this year, but its offense is still finding its way. The Vikings had just 209 yards of offense in last week’s win over Arizona, the second time in four weeks they’ve won while gaining less than 230 yards. Tampa Bay hasn't won SU on the road since beating Minnesota last September (nine straight losses, 3-6 ATS) but has covered in both of its 2012 road games. Bucs QB Josh Freeman has thrown for 349 YPG, 7 TD and only 2 INT over his past three games. The Bucs pulled off a comeback, 24-20 win in Minnesota a year ago, driving 61 yards for the winning touchdown with 31 seconds left.

Can the Buccaneers hand Minnesota its first home loss of 2012? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

The Bucs are 4-2 ATS this season, having not lost a game by more than seven points. They nearly tied last week's game with New Orleans in the closing seconds, but two apparent touchdown passes were overruled in the final minute of a 35-28 loss. Freeman's recent surge has a lot to do with WR Vincent Jackson, who has 382 receiving yards and 4 TD over his past three games. Freeman targeted Jackson 14 times last week, resulting in seven catches for 216 yards. In last year's game in Minnesota, he completed 22-of-31 passes for 243 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Tampa's running game has been lacking for most of the 2012 season, as the team has gained less than 100 rushing yards in four of the past five contests. Rookie RB Doug Martin has been a workhorse with 100 carries, but has just 408 yards and 2 TD with that heavy workload. The good news for Martin is that although the Vikings allow just 100 rushing YPG (12th in the NFL), they have given up 309 yards on the ground over the past two contests. The Buccaneers have turned the ball over seven times in the past five games, while Minnesota has forced nine miscues in its past five contests. The Vikings racked up seven sacks in last week's win, but Tampa Bay has a great offensive line that has surrendered just nine sacks all season.

Vikings QB Christian Ponder is coming off a terrible outing against the Cardinals, completing just 8-of-17 passes for 58 yards (3.4 YPA), 1 TD and 2 INT. After starting the season with no interceptions in his first four games, Ponder has thrown two picks in each of the past three contests. But he should be able to bounce back facing a Tampa Bay pass defense allowing the second-most yards in the league this year (323 passing YPG). Ponder should have plenty of time to throw, considering the Bucs have generated just one sack over the past three games. It also helps Ponder to have a running game anchored by Adrian Peterson, who is coming off a season-high 153 yards versus the Cardinals. Peterson destroyed Tampa Bay last year with 141 total yards and a pair of touchdowns, but the Bucs' run-stop unit has been much more fierce under first-year head coach Greg Schiano, ranking third in the NFL with a mere 76 rushing YPG allowed.

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 25, 2012

(TC) Tampa Bay at Minnesota, 8:25 ET NFL
Tampa Bay: 9-1 Over after playing a game at home
Minnesota: 1-8 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42


Sunday, October 28, 2012

New England at St Louis, 1:00 ET
New England: 19-7 ATS in road games off 3 or more overs
St Louis: 0-6 ATS off a home loss

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 27-13 ATS in road games after allowing 14 points or less
Tennessee: 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play last game

Jacksonville at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 3-6 ATS in non-conference games
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS off a road win

San Diego at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 12-1 ATS in road games after 2 games with 50 points or more
Cleveland: 3-11 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 8-1 Under after playing a game at home
Philadelphia: 18-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Seattle at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 11-3 ATS after the first month of the season
Detroit: 40-61 ATS as a favorite

Miami at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Miami: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf
NY Jets: 12-25 ATS off a road loss against a division rival

Carolina at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 23-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games
Chicago: 4-13 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4

Washington at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Washington: 14-2 ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rush yards
Pittsburgh: 3-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

Oakland at Kansas City, 4:05 ET
Oakland: 35-66 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS off a road loss

NY Giants at Dallas, 4:25 ET
NY Giants: 8-1 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins
Dallas: 1-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

New Orleans at Denver, 8:30 ET
New Orelans: 9-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Denver: 37-66 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3


Monday, October 29, 2012

(TC) San Francisco at Arizona, 8:40 ET ESPN
San Francisco: 4-14 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less
Arizona: 26-11 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses

** Week 8 Byes: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston **

(TC) = Time Change

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Buccaneers (2-4) @ Vikings (5-2)—Tampa Bay won last five series games, winning last two here, 24-13 in ’05, 24-20 LY, but Minnesota is lot better this year, winning all four home games by average score of 25-14 (2-1 as home fave). Bucs lost but covered both road games, 41-34 (+7.5) at Giants, 16-10 (+7.5) at Dallas; since ’09, they’re 15-9-1 as road underdogs- they’re 3-1 overall as dogs this year. Freeman threw ball for 415 yards last week (9.7 ypa). Minnesota allowed 14 or less points in four of its five wins; Arizona started four of its first six drives in Viking territory last week, but scored only seven points, then Vikes sat on lead in second half (were just 8-17/43 passing). NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-4 vs spread; NFC spread non-divisional road teams are 6-0 vs spread, 4-0 if underdogs. Four of last five Tampa games went over; five of last six Viking games stayed under.

Patriots (4-3) vs Rams (3-4) (@ London)—Last time Belichick/Fisher hooked up was weird ’09 game when Titans went in tank in 59-0 loss when a freak October snowstorm hit Foxboro; New England won last three series games vs Rams, first of which was SB XXXVI, when Pats’ spying tactics helped engineer upset as 12-point dogs. Rams’ three wins are vs two rookie QBs/Kolb; they couldn’t contain Rodgers when it mattered most last week, face another elite QB here. Pats have been outscored 34-6 in 4th quarter of last three games; they’re +11 in turnovers, which masks a defense that is susceptible to long pass (see end of Seattle loss). Patriots are already 0-2 vs NFC West, losing to Cards/Seahawks by total of three points; they went cross-country to Seattle two weeks ago, are crossing pond now- is that a problem? NFC West non-divisional road dogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional faves are 5-4.

Colts (3-3) @ Titans (3-4)— Winner here is overachieving playoff contender; Titans have three wins by total of 7 points, winning last two games in last minute behind veteran QB Hasselbeck- they’ve converted 18 of 30 3rd down plays last two weeks, but are favored for first time this year- they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 games as home favorite. Colts won two of last three games, but are 0-2 vs spread in game following a win; they’re 2-0 when allowing 20 or less points, 1-3 when giving up more- they’re 0-2 on road, losing 41-21 (+9.5) at Chicago, 35-9 (+3.5) at Jets. Indy won six of last seven series games, winning six of last nine visits here, but that was with Manning at QB; they lost here LY without him, and are 3-7 as road dogs since he last played for Colts. League-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-11 vs the spread, 1-1 in AFC South. Four of last five Tennessee games went over the total.

Jaguars (1-5) @ Packers (4-3)—The tree times Jaguars got spanked this year (all at home), they were held to 10 or fewer points; Packers’ last four foes all scored 20+ points. First home game in month for Green Bay squad that won/ covered in third straight road game LW, historically about a 30% play; three of four Packer wins are by 10+ points- they’re 1-2 as home favorites, beating Saints by 1, Bears by 13, losing to 49ers. Road team is 6-0 vs spread in Jax games, with Jags 3-0 as road underdogs, losing pair of OT games and winning in last minute at Indy. Problem is, Gabbert got hurt last week, so unsure if he or Henne will be under center here. Over last 10+ years, Packers are 11-7 vs spread as double digit favorites. Home teams lost three of four series games (tied 2-2), with Jaguars winning 28-25 in only previous visit here, in ’04. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-6 vs spread, 3-4 on road. Last four Green Bay games went over the total.

Chargers (3-3) @ Browns (1-6)—San Diego imploded in second half (outscored 52-7) of last two games before bye, now travels east to play opponent they’ve beaten seven of last eight meetings, winning eight of 11 games played here. Bolts won two at Oakland/KC before losing in New Orleans; they’ve covered five of last six tries as road favorites. Four of Browns’ six losses were by 7 or less points; they’re 1-2 at home, with only win this season revenge game vs Bengals, when Cleveland was +3 in turnovers. Since ’08, Browns are 8-10 as a home dog- they’re 4-10-3 vs spread in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers won six of last nine post-bye games (4-3 vs spread last 7 as favorite); TE Gates returns to old college stomping grounds (played hoop at Kent State). AFC West teams are 2-3 vs spread as non-divisional favorites; AFC North teams are 4-13 in non-divisional games, 3-5 as underdogs, 1-1 at home.

Falcons (6-0) @ Eagles (3-3)—Unbeaten Atlanta getting points in Ryan’s hometown, where Falcons lost last six visits (last win in ’88); Atlanta beat Iggles 35-31 LY at home, its first series win in last five tries. Home side won 10 of last 12 series games. Reid is unbeaten in regular season after bye, but Atlanta won three in row and six of last eight after bye, too. Falcons haven’t played great schedule; they’re +8 in turnovers (even in last three games) and were shaky winners over Carolina/Oakland in last two home games, but 6-0 is 6-0. Eagles have 17 turnovers (-9) in six games; they beat Giants in only game without a miscue. Philly lost last two games by total of 5 points; only one of their six games was won by more than a FG; Eagles are NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-8 vs spread, 2-4 at home; NFC South non-divisional road teams are 6-0 vs spread. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total.

Seahawks (4-3) @ Lions (2-4)— Seattle returns to site of only Super Bowl appearance with four extra days of prep; they played last Thursday, Lions played Monday. Five teams are playing rookie QB’s this year, Seattle being one; those teams are 1-7 vs spread when favored, 17-8 when underdog. Seahawks won last three series games, are 7-4 vs Lions, splitting four games played here; they’re 1-3 on road, with none of four games decided by more than six points, and all four staying under total. Underdogs are 7-0 vs spread in Seahawk games, with Hawks 5-0 as dog; their losses are by 4-6-7 points. Detroit is 0-3 as favorite this year, losing two of three SU they’re -5 in turnovers, but was +2 in only win, in OT at Philly. Lions have yet to lead at halftime this season, having led in 2nd-3rd-4th quarters for a combined total of 22 seconds all season long. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 5-2 on road. NFC North home favorites are 4-4.

Dolphins (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)—Gang Green was outrushed 185-88 (mostly before Bush was hurt), but survived 23-20 OT win at Miami in first meeting in Week 3, 7th win for visitor in last 10 series games. Jets had 13-yard edge in field position that day. Miami won three of last four visits here; their last four games overall were all decided by 4 or less points, with Fish losing pair of OT games. Jets lost three of last four games, losing tough OT games last week in Foxboro; they’re 9-8 as home favorite under Ryan, 2-0 this year. Jets covered 15 of last 23 games when spread was 3 or less points; Miami is 3-5-1 in last nine such games- Dolphins lost six of last seven post-bye games, if they won last game before the bye, but covered eight of last 10 as divisional road dog; since 2008, Miami is 22-8-1 overall when a road underdog. Former Miami coach Sparano is Jets’ OC; Gang Green is 1-4 when their turnover ratio is worse than +3.

Panthers (1-5) @ Bears (5-1)—Chicago is playing great defense, allowing total of 34 points in last four games (3 TDs on last 44 drives), but this is trap game, after Monday night win over division rival. Carolina is 1-5, soph QB Newton is discouraged, but only one of their five losses was by more than 6 points, so hardly hopeless situation; Bears lead this series 4-3, winning last two meetings 23-6/34-29 (Panthers covered in last 1:00). Carolina lost three of four visits here, with only win in ’05 playoff game. Panthers are 0-2 on road, losing 16-10 (-2.5) at Tampa, 30-28 (+7) at Atlanta, best game they’ve played this year- they’re 4-3-1 as road dog under Rivera, but they’ve converted only 8 of 32 3rd down plays in last three games. Four of Bears’ five wins are by 16+ points; they already have 21 takeaways, and ridiculously good +13 turnover ratio, but since ’07, they’re just 11-16-1 vs spread as home favorites, 2-1 this year. Three of last four Carolina games stayed under the total.

Redskins (3-4) @ Steelers (3-3)—Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Washington games this year, 4-0 on road; Redskins are 2-2 on foreign soil, 3-0 as road underdogs, with losses by total of 7 points (@Rams/Giants). Since 2009, Skins are 15-7-1 vs spread as road dogs. None of their four losses this year are by more than seven points. Hard to believe its Halloween and this is just third home game for Pitt (beat Jets 27-10, -6/Eagles 16-14, -3.5); Steelers are 9-7 in last 16 games as home favorite, and won last four games with Redskins, last three by combined score of 63-16- they seemed to rediscover running game in second half at Cincinnati last week, running ball for 167 yards, just their second game over 75 this season. Looked like Redskins had pulled upset at Swamp last week when they scored to take 23-20 lead in last 1:30, but then defense allowed 77-yard TD pass on next play, and they had a tough loss instead. Six of seven Washington games went over total.

Raiders (2-4) @ Chiefs (1-5)—Two ancient rivals both desperate for win; Quinn (3-10 career record as starter) gets nod at QB for KC squad playing first game in front of home fans since some of them cheered after previous starting QB Cassel was injured, prompting angry reaction from a KC lineman. Chiefs are 1-5, with four losses by 16+ points, and no offensive TDs in last two games (22 drives). Raiders are 0-3 on road, allowing 31.7 ppg; both their wins are by FG at home. Home side lost 10 of last 11 series games; Raiders won six of last nine, including last five visits here, with three of five wins by exactly three points. Since 2007, Chiefs are hideous 9-17-1 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points; over last 10+ years, Raiders are terrible 16-32-2 vs spread in such games, though they were 5-1-1 LY (0-3 this year). Chiefs lost four of last five post-bye games. Four of six Oakland games went over the total.

Giants (5-2) @ Cowboys (3-3)—Home team lost five of last seven series games, with Giants winning shootouts (33-31/41-35/37-34) in last three visits here; Dallas upset world champs 24-17 (+3.5) in season opener, outrushing them 143-82, surviving 13 penalties for 86 yards. Giants covered all three games when they ran ball for 125 yards, winning by 29-14-23 points; underdogs covered those other four games, with Giants 2-2 SU in them. Dallas has to make them one-dimensional, because they can’t outscore Eli’s offense, having scored 19 or fewer points in four of last five games (8 TDs on last 51 drives). You’re reading ***************.com. Cowboys held five of six foes to 112 or less rushing yards, but in two home games, Cowboys have run ball total of 37 times for only 79 yards. Dallas is 5-12-1 vs spread in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points; Giants are 5-1-1 in their last seven. Cowboys’ coaches just seem out of sync, with stuff as simple as subbing players in and out.

Saints (2-4) @ Broncos (3-3)—Peyton Manning vs his dad’s old team, in Joe Vitt’s first game back as interim coach; keep in mind Saints blasted Peyton-less Colts 62-7 LY; this is first time Peyton plays against Saints since he lost Super Bowl to them three years ago, so lot of subplots. Fox won four in row, six of last seven post-bye games; Broncos themselves covered 17 of last 21 post-bye tilts. If Bucs passed for 415 yards vs Saint defense last week, what will Manning put in thin air? Denver scored 31-37-35 points in its wins, 21-25-21 in losses; Saints are allowing average of 30.3 ppg, with five of their six games going over total. That said, NO won last two games after 0-2 start, scoring 31-35 points (8 TDs on 21 drives); average total in its three road games is an even 60. Only teams to beat Denver are 6-1 Texans/6-0 Falcons/4-3 Patriots. Broncos are 2-0 as home favorite this year, after going 5-24-2 as home favorite from 2006-11.

49ers (5-2) @ Cardinals (4-3)—Arizona lost last three games after 4-0 start, scoring 11 ppg during skid (3 TD’s on 38 drives); they’ve lost five of last six games vs 49ers, three of last five here. 49ers are +2 in turnovers after being +28 LY; they’ve run ball for average of 176.3 yards game, part of why they’ve had field position edge in five of seven games, but they have allowed 135+ rushing yards three of last five week. Redbirds are getting poor QB play from banged-up duo; they started four of six first half drives in Minnesota territory last week, scored only 7 points, which is why they lost a game where they had 14-yard edge in field position- that does not happen much. Divisional home underdogs are 6-6 vs spread this year, but 3-0 in NFC West. Six of seven Cardinal games, five of last six 49er games stayed under the total. This is like a mini-bye for 49ers, who haven’t played in 11 days and are 15-6 vs spread in game before their last 21 real byes.

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NFL

Week 8

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Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers at Vikings
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 42.5)

The Minnesota Vikings remain one of the league's biggest early surprises, but they had to survive an inept performance on offense to continue their drive for an NFC North crown. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meanwhile, had nothing to show for their best offensive output of the season. Minnesota will look to double last season's win total when they host the Buccaneers on Thursday night.

The Vikings remained perfect at home with an ugly 21-7 victory over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday while the Buccaneers blew a 14-point lead against the New Orleans Saints to absorb their fourth loss in the last five games. Tampa Bay won at Minnesota in Week 2 last season before unraveling and finishing the season on a 10-game losing streak.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Vikings opened as big as touchdown favorites but have been bet down to -6.5. The total has also moved from 41.5 to 42.5.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS): Tampa Bay rolled up a season-best 513 yards of total offense and Josh Freeman threw for a career-high 420 yards, but the Bucs were unable to hold off Drew Brees and the Saints after building a 21-7 lead. Vincent Jackson hauled in seven catches for 216 yards and one of Freeman's three TD passes, but Tampa Bay failed to scored on a first-and-goal at the 1-yard line and had two apparent tying touchdowns in the final five seconds negated by a penalty and a receiver landing out of bounds. Rookie running back Doug Martin had his highest output since the season opener with 85 yards and a TD on 16 carries.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS): Minnesota's second-half performance against Arizona was an eyesore, but the one positive was the re-emergence of star running back Adrian Peterson. He powered his way to a season-high 153 yards on 23 carries and scored his first touchdown since Week 1. The passing game was another story, particularly in the second half. Christian Ponder threw for only 58 yards - four in the second half - with one TD and two interceptions. Minnesota managed only 12 first downs and 209 total yards, punting on its first five possessions of the second half and going three-and-out four straight times. DE Jared Allen had two of the Vikings' seven sacks.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
* Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Buccaneers have won the last five meetings between the teams.

2. Peterson is tied with Robert Smith (29) for the most 100-yard games in franchise history.

3. Buccaneers S Ronde Barber had his third interception of the season and 46th of his career last week

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NFL

Week 8

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Tale of the tape: Buccaneers at Vikings
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The Bucs roll into Minnesota for what promises to be a physical affair against the Vikings in this week's installment of Thursday Night Football. Take a look at how this matchup breaks down in all three facets of the game with our tale of the tape:

Offense

The Bucs offense has exploded over the last two weeks, putting up a combined 66 points against the Chiefs and Saints. Of course, both of those performances came at home and at the expense of two struggling defenses. They'll face a much stiffer test on the road against a stout Vikings defense Thursday night. Bucs QB Josh Freeman has thrown six touchdown passes over the last two games while rookie RB Doug Martin found the end zone for only the second time this season against New Orleans last week. Offseason acquisition Vincent Jackson has been the star of the offense, hauling in four touchdown catches over the last three weeks.

Minnesota's offense relied heavily on RB Adrian Peterson last Sunday, as QB Christian Ponder was only able to complete 47 percent of his passes for a miserable 58 yards. The sophomore pivot has now thrown exactly two interceptions in three consecutive games. To make matters worse, he's nursing a sore knee heading into this contest. But can an already conservative offense really be scaled back all that much? It won't be a surprise if Peterson remains the focal point of the offense Thursday, as the issues in the Vikes’ passing game aren't likely to be fixed in a short week.

Edge: Tampa Bay


Defense

Tampa Bay has alternated good and bad performances on the defensive side of the football this season. So, after giving up 35 points in a losing effort last Sunday, one would assume it would bring its “A” game Thursday night. The Bucs are giving up an ugly 6.3 yards per play on the season and have really struggled against the pass, allowing nearly 13 yards per completion. Corner Aqib Talib's suspension has left a gaping hole in the secondary and his absence was certainly felt last Sunday, as the Bucs were ripped for 377 yards and four touchdowns against Drew Brees and the Saints. They'll need their pass rush to relieve the pressure on the secondary this week.

The strength of the Vikings defense remains up front, as they come into this game averaging over three sacks per contest. Their explosive pass rush has helped limit opposing offenses to a weak 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Last Sunday, the Vikes forced a pair of key turnovers against the Cardinals, including an interception they took to the house - ultimately proving to be the difference in the 21-14 victory. They're giving up just a shade over 14 points per game at the Metrodome, where they're a perfect 3-0 SU on the season.

Edge: Minnesota


Special teams

Tampa Bay's return game has struggled for the most part, averaging only 6.5 yards per punt return and 20.1 yards on kickoffs. Without a proven return man (Arrelious Benn and Roscoe Parrish have been sharing the duties), that shouldn't come as a surprise. The Bucs have been terrific at holding opposing returners in check, giving up just slightly north of 21 yards per kickoff return, but will face a big challenge in the form of the electric Percy Harvin Thursday. Tampa Bay kicker Connor Barth has been steady since entering the league and has made good on 10 of his 12 field goal attempts so far this season.

The Vikings are a load to handle on special teams with speedsters Percy Harvin and Marcus Sherels capable of taking it to the house every time they touch the football. They're currently gaining well above the league average at 12.3 yards per punt return and 29.9 yards per kickoff return. On the flip side, they've had a tough time defending kickoffs in particular, allowing 31.7 yards per return. Rookie kicker Blair Walsh has been terrific for the Vikes, converting 16 of 17 field goal attempts. They also boast a quality, veteran punter in Chris Kluwe.

Edge: Minnesota


Word on the street

"Again, we're sitting here, what are we, 2-4 now? And we're saying this old song and dance. That's the way it is. Until we get it changed, until we find a way to change it, close but no cigar." - Bucs head coach Greg Schiano on the frustration of dropping another close game against the Saints last Sunday.

"That's what we want to pride ourselves on, being the toughest team, the most physical team. We were able to come out today and do that, we just have to keep doing that going forward." - Vikings DE Brian Robison speaking about the seven sacks they recorded against the Cardinals last Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 8:20 PM ET Tampa Bay +5.5 500

Minnesota - Under 43 500

[StarDust Bum]

Falcons In Philadelphia To Face Struggling Eagles

The storm signals have been building in Philadelphia since the offseason. All it took was another loss in gut-wrenching fashion in the Eagles’ most-recent game against the Lions for the first cloudburst of what could be more to come in the Delaware Valley.

Meanwhile, Atlanta continues to bop along in undefeated fashion. Conversations among patrons over chili and slaw dogs at the downtown location of The Varsity (one of our favorite eateries) has even swung from the Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets on the college side to the NFL as “Falcons Mania” grips the Showcase City of the South.

So, it’s a tale of two teams and franchises apparently headed in opposite directions when they clash on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field.

A quick check of the Don Best NFL odds screen notes that despite positions in the standings, host Philadelphia (3-3 straight up, 1-5 vs. the line) is priced as a 2½-point favorite over Atlanta (6-0 straight up, 4-2 against the number) at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, while the total is at 45 shaded to the ‘under’ (with a handful of stray 45½s) at most Nevada wagering outlets.

Kickoff time on Sunday at the Linc will be at 1:00 p.m. (ET), with big FOX providing the TV coverage. Dick Stockton and John Lynch will provide the commentary.

Despite Atlanta’s undefeated mark, more eyes are probably going to be on the Eagles this week as both sides get back to action after their respective “byes” a week ago. While it was an uneventful week for the Falcons, it was anything but in Philadelphia...for reasons we noted in our summer NFC previews.

At the time, we and many other suspected Eagles head coach Andy Reid was operating under the gun this season, and for good reason after last year’s 8-8 disappointment. Owner Jeffrey Lurie had even put Reid on notice that his job depended upon performance this season. To show he meant business, Lurie pushed aside team president Joe Banner (who landed with the Browns), a longtime confidante of Reid’s.

Most observers, us included, also suspected that second-year defensive coordinator Juan Castillo was going to be on a very short leash this fall. After all, the “D” mostly underachieved a year ago. And the stop unit was the focus in the offseason, especially during the draft when the Eagles went "D" with their first three picks. NFC East insiders also noted that Reid made inquiries regarding the availability of former Rams HC and Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo about assuming control of the Bird stop unit before committing to Castillo for another campaign.

But Reid put in place a backup plan involving new DB coach Todd Bowles, who held the same post at Miami a year ago and was even the Dolphins' interim head coach last December after Tony Sparano was jettisoned with a few games to go in the season. With so much on the line for all parties this fall, some sources believe another slow start by the defense might force Reid to move Bowles into the coordinator role and demote Castillo. Which is exactly what happened after the October 14 loss to the Lions, when Philly blew a late 23-13 lead and ended up a 26-23 loser in overtime.

Of particular disappointment was the lack of impact made by the Eagles’ defensive front, which put DL coach Jim Washburn’s patented “wide nine” looks to good use last fall when registering 50 sacks. But opposing attacks made adjustments to Philly’s defensive front this season, and the Eagles had failed to generate a consistent pass rush, not registering any sacks over the past three games. The “bye” week thus provided Reid the perfect opportunity to make a staff change, relieving Castillo of duties and promoting Bowles.

Now, phone lines on 610 WIP are buzzing about who is next on the chopping block. Quarterback Michael Vick is a popular choice among the Eagle fanatics, with Reid himself close behind.

Indeed, since Reid appears unwilling to sit back and watch the team underachieve, it is fair to assume that Vick’s job is on the line as well, especially since he has been so mistake-prone (8 picks and 10 fumbles, losing five of the latter) in the first six games. Sources say Vick could be one more shaky start away from getting the hook, with Reid said to be close to giving Arizona rookie Nick Foles (who impressed in preseason) the reins to the struggling offense.

The Eagles are also defining low-variance this season, with five of their six games decided by three points or fewer. The combined win margin in Philly’s three wins is an astonishing four points.

Meanwhile, Mike Smith’s Atlanta is having fewer concerns, although he hopes last week’s “bye” can help the Falcons correct some flaws that have forced them to sweat out recent wins over the Panthers, Redskins and Raiders. Mostly, those issues involve a running game that has been in a lurch in recent weeks, as Atlanta is gaining only 3.7 yards per carry. Moreover, the defense is allowing 5.2 yards per rush, hardly the sort of numbers that figure to keep the Falcons unbeaten as the 2012 campaign enters its second half.

For the time being, however, the excellence of QB Matt Ryan, and his ability to pull wins out of the fire in the late-going – game-saving drives to last-second Matt Bryant field goals saved the recent wins over Carolina and Oakland – has kept Atlanta unblemished. The variety of top-flight receiving targets, especially with vet TE Tony Gonzalez (team-best 43 catches) showing no signs of slowing down, and wideouts Roddy White and Julio Jones stretch enemy secondaries, figures to test the Eagle pass defense.

Bowles is going to have to worry about how CB Nnamdi Asomugha is going to deal with Jones, his expected assignment, after several blown assignments have resulted in big plays against the Philly defense thus far.

Technically, it is no surprise that the underdog team has covered in each of the first six games for the low-variance Eagles; Philly, favored in all but its 16-14 loss at Pittsburgh on October 7, is 1-5 vs. the line. Totals trends are also shading to the ‘under’ for both (Falcons ‘under’ 5-2 their last seven since late 2011, Eagles ‘under’ 10-4 last 14 since mid 2011).

Atlanta also won an early-season battle a year ago at the Georgia Dome by a 35-31 count, before each team began its respective ‘under’ trending.

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Dallas Cowboys & New York Giants Meet Again

Fierce NFC East rivals, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, play their second and final regular season meeting Sunday in Big D.

The Don Best Pro Odds opened the Cowboys as 1½-point home favorites, but it was quickly bet around and they’re now 1½-2 point ‘dogs. The total is 47½-points and FOX will have this ratings buster starting at 4:25 p.m. (ET).

These teams opened the NFL season on Wednesday, September 5. Dallas was a 3½-point ‘dog at the defending champs, but won 24-17 after winning the total yardage battle 433-269. Quarterback Tony Romo (307 yards, three TDs) outplayed his counterpart Eli Manning (213 yards).

The 41 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 45½-point total. The ‘under’ is 2-0 in the last two meetings between the teams after the ‘over’ was 5-0 in the previous five.

The Cowboys (3-3 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) may have peaked in that Giants game as not a lot has gone right since. They did pull out a victory at struggling Carolina last week, 19-14 as 1-point favorites, but the offense has trouble putting up points (18.8 PPG, tied-for-24th) despite being 10th in total yards (374.8 YPG).

The running game is a concern Sunday with DeMarco Murray (foot) doubtful after missing last game. Felix Jones was the main guy, but rushed for just 44 yards on 15 carries and is questionable with a knee injury.

That puts a lot of pressure on Romo. He didn’t throw an interception for the first time this season last game, but it’s hard to imagine that happening again versus the imposing Giants pass rush.

Dallas’ defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed (292.3 YPG), but just got devastating news with leading tackler Sean Lee (toe) out for the season. He has 58 tackles with the next closest at 32, and the Giants will try to run the ball at replacement Dan Connor.

Note the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five at home (0-2 ATS this year). They beat Tampa Bay (16-10 as 9-point favorites) before getting embarrassed by Chicago (34-18 loss) on MNF. Romo had five picks in that Bears game, which is the last time the home crowd saw him.

The Giants (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) have won five of six since the Dallas opener, although they haven’t always been pretty. Last week’s home game against Washington is the perfect example. The G-Men were outgained 248-64 on the ground with the scrambling of Robert Griffin III a big factor, but Manning threw a 77-yard TD pass to Victor Cruz with under 1:30 remaining.

The sterling 27-23 victory failed to cover the 6½-point spread and also went just ‘under’ the 51½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Giants last five games, 3-0 away this year.

Manning can throw on any team and has been better on the road (94.5 rating). Receiver Hakeem Nicks keeps rounding into form after injuries and could have a breakout game. That will take pressure off the sensational Cruz.

Ahmad Bradshaw has been dealing with a foot issue and was held to 43 yards last week after an average of 158 the prior two. As mentioned above, the G-Men will really test the Dallas run ‘D’ and Bradshaw is a big part of that.

New York has been a great road team since last December, going 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS (including the Super Bowl). The numbers this year are 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS with the outright loss at Philadelphia (19-17) on September 30.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 8

October 26, 2012

It looks like we’re going to have a barn burner on Sunday night when the New Orleans Saints visit the Denver Broncos, where Las Vegas sports books have posted the total at 55 ½ -- the highest number of Week 8 and the season. A lot of times when we see high totals on these type of games, the game doesn’t live up to expectations, but it’s hard to imagine this one not giving us a video game type of offensive production.
If the league’s worst defense of the Saints, allowing just over 30 points per game, doesn’t give a valid reason to believe the pace of this game will be fast, then maybe the offensive production of the two starting quarterbacks will. Only five quarterbacks in NFL history have averaged over 250 yards per game over their career, and Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are No. 1 and 2, respectively.

On the season, the Saints have averaged 29.3 points per game while Broncos have averaged 28.3. For the Saints, no team has been able to slow their offense down. Their problem -- the reason they started out 0-4 -- is that they can’t stop anyone. However, in their past two games, the Saints have had better defensive production and they get good news this week as Joe Vitt returns to the sideline as interim head coach after serving a six-game suspension for his role in the “Bounty-Gate” scandal.

This year’s version of the Broncos has improved every week as Manning and his core of offensive players are finally getting on the same page with one another. Their three losses on the season have come against Top-5 rated teams in the league -- Atlanta, Houston and New England. Yet, in each of those losses, defenses still had a tough time stopping Manning in the second half.

The Broncos seem to go to extreme highs and lows offensively during their games, with the lows usually being in the first quarter. Before their bye week, they took the extremes to new heights as they gave the Chargers a 24-0 halftime lead before rolling out a 35-0 second half. Ironically, it was a week earlier where the Saints were down at the half to San Diego and used a 17-7 second half run to win 31-24.

The Broncos opened as 4 ½-point favorites last Sunday night and bettors perceived the number offering some value and ran it up to 6 ½ in just over an hour. On Monday morning, Saints money finally found its way to the book and pushed the number down to 6, where it’s remained all week. The total opened 54 ½ Monday and was bet up to 55 ½ by Tuesday morning.

Here’s a look at some of the other line movements in Las Vegas from this week:

The Patriots and Rams meet in London for the sixth regular season game to be played across the pond. Our brand of football has people excited in London just because it‘s something different for them, but the top match of the day in the city will be across town when proper football is played at Stamford Bridge between Manchester United and Chelsea.

This will be the second time the Patriots have played in England, and the locals have to be wondering why the NFL would send a team with name like the “Patriots” over so much. It’s like an American winning at Wimbledon on the Fourth of July. It's been 236 years, but there is still some bitterness over the revolution by ‘Their’ colonies.

The Pats opened up as 8 ½-point favorites and have been bet down to 7 with no movement on the total at 47. The English punters will have fun with the wagering aspect and fire away on the games at betting stations all around the stadium, even though the NFL forbids Las Vegas to buy ad time for the Super Bowl. I guess we’re bad in legal Las Vegas, but their good because it’s legal there. Doesn’t make much sense!

The Packers appear to be getting their rhythm back to 2011 speed and have looked very good the past two weeks, which is why we saw a big fat -15 on the board for their home game against the Jaguars. Because of injuries on the Jaguars, the first move was taking the Packers up to -15 ½, but has since been bet down to 14 ½. Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert (shoulder) is expected to play, but Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is out.

The Falcons may be 6-0, but bettors still like the turnover machine known as the Eagles as they’ve bet Philly from -2 ½ up to -3 (EVEN).

The Seahawks haven’t been their best away from Seattle, but bettors seem to trust them more in this situation than the Lions, who have been offensively challenged this season. The Lions opened up at -3 (EVEN) and Seattle money has pushed the game off the key number down to 2 ½.

The Jets beat the Dolphins 23-20 in Miami last month and are playing a brand of football closer to what Rex Ryan would like lately, despite being only 1-2 in their past three. However, they got the cover in all three games -- two of them against two of the best teams in the league (Houston, New England). The Jets opened at -2 ½ and have stayed there all week.

The Bears have been bet from 7-point home favorites against the Panthers to -7 ½. Second-year QB Cam Newton asked the media for a suggestion box after another embarrassing Panthers performance last week, and it’s not going to get any easier for him this week against the Bears defense. Good luck, kid.

The Steelers opened as 4-point home favorites against the Redskins and have been bet up to -4 ½. Make a note that Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is 14-1 in his career against rookie quarterbacks.

The Raiders and Chiefs usually win as visitors when squaring off, which makes this line seem a little strange where the Chiefs are -1 ½. Trends aside, the Chiefs have lost three in a row, and badly. Even worse is that backup QB Brady Quinn has no grasp on how to run any offense and he’ll be leading the Chiefs charge this week.

The Cowboys opened as 1-point home favorites against the Giants and that number has ran, the other way. The Giants are now -2 ½, and justifiably so.

The 49ers opened as 7-point road favorites against the Cardinals and the number has been bouncing around 6 ½ and 7 all week. By the time this game kicks off on Monday, it’ll be at least 7 ½, so if you like the 49ers, jump in when/if it drops back down to -6 ½ and if you like the Cards, wait until Monday.