The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 7, 2011

First Round Results

Second Round Results


Favorites are 6-4 straight up
Favorites are 6-4 against the spread
The 'over' is 8-2
Home teams are 5-5

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Memphis (+6.5) Oklahoma City 114-101 UNDERDOG OVER 195
Boston Miami (-5) 99-90 FAVORITE OVER 181

Monday, May 2
Atlanta (+9) Chicago 103-95 UNDERDOG OVER 177.5
Dallas (+6) L.A. Lakers 96-94 UNDERDOG OVER 188.5

Tuesday, May 3
Boston Miami (-5) 102-91 FAVORITE OVER 181
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6.5) 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 197.5

Wednesday, May 4
Atlanta Chicago (-8.5) 86-73 FAVORITE UNDER 181
Dallas (+7) L.A. Lakers 93-81 UNDERDOG UNDER 188

Friday, May 6
Chicago (-2.5) Atlanta 99-82 FAVORITE OVER 178
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 98-92 FAVORITE OVER 187

Saturday, May 7
Oklahoma City Memphis
Miami Boston

Sunday, May 8
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Monday, May 9
Miami Boston
Memphis Oklahoma City

Tuesday, May 10
Atlanta Chicago
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, May 11
Boston Miami
Memphis Oklahoma City

Thursday, May 12
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Friday, May 12
Miami Boston
Oklahoma City Memphis

Sunday, May 15
Atlanta Chicago
Memphis Oklahoma City
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Monday, May 16
Boston Miami




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/04/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
05/03/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/02/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/01/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
Totals 11-*9-*0 55.00% +550

Saturday, May 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oklahoma City - 5:00 PM ET Oklahoma City +3 500
Memphis - Over 200 500

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami +3 500
Boston - Under 183 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA odds favor Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks

The Chicago Bulls will look to make it three wins in-a-row over the Atlanta Hawks this Sunday in Game 4 of their best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinal matchup. Tip-off from the Philips Arena in Atlanta is set for 5:00 p.m. (PT) and the game will be broadcast nationally on TNT.

Chicago was stunned 103-95 as a 9 ½-point home favorite in Game 1, but since that point has been rock-solid with a 86-73 romp in Game 2 as a nine-point home favorite followed by a convincing 99-82 victory as a 2 ½-point road favorite on Friday night.

A win Sunday would give the Bulls a commanding 3-1 series lead with Game 5 back in Chicago on Tuesday night.

Newly crowned league MVP Derrick Rose torched Atlanta for 44 points in Game 3 after scoring a combined 49 points in the first two games. He leads the team in scoring this postseason with 28.9 points a game. Luol Deng is the second leading scorer with 16.9 points a game and Joakim Noah leads in rebounds with 11.4.

Carlos Boozer continues to be a non-factor in these playoffs with just 9.8 points a game after averaging over 17 in the regular season.

The Bulls are averaging 96 points a game while giving up just 88.6 points. They are shooting 42.3 percent from the field, but more importantly outrebounding their opponents 46.8 to 37.9. Chicago pulled down 105 boards in the last two games compared to just 73 for the Hawks.

Friday’s loss was Atlanta’s first setback at home in the postseason after beating Orlando three straight times at Philips Arena as a 1 ½-point underdog in each game. The Hawks actually covered the spread in five of the six games in the first round, but are 1-2 against the spread in this series.

Atlanta’s big gun Joe Johnson was held in check in Game 3 with just 10 points after averaging 19.8 points in his first eight playoff games. Jamal Crawford added just seven points off the bench, which was far less than his 19.5 PPG average. The only real bright spot for the Hawks in the past two games has been the play of Jeff Teague, who is filling in for the injured Kirk Hinrich. Teague put up a team-high 21 points in Game 3 after scoring 21 in Wednesday night’s loss.

If the Hawks are going to have any chance in this game, they not only have to find a way to slow down Rose but do a much better job shooting the ball. After converting 51 percent of their shots from the field in Game 1, they went a dismal 26-for-77 in Game 2 and are now just 4-for-19 from 3-point range in the last two games.

Chicago is 3-1 ATS in its last four road games and 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The total is 4-4 in its eight playoff games.

Atlanta is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games at home and 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of nine games this postseason.

Head-to-head, the Bulls won two of three both straight-up and ATS in the regular season, matching their 2-1 record SU and ATS in this series. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of their last 10 meetings and in two of the three games in this series.

Chicago opened as a 3½-point road favorite for this game and remains a strong play as the momentum in this series is clearly in its favor. Sunday's total is 179.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Dallas Mavericks, LA Lakers Game 4

They weren't supposed to have a chance. They were supposed to choke in the playoffs. They were supposed to crack under the pressure. They were supposed to be the less physical team. They were supposed to live up to their annual postseason swoon.

Someone forgot to tell that to the Dallas Mavericks.

Now, the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference is on the verge of something truly special as the Mavs can move into the Western Conference Finals on Sunday if they can take care of the defending champs, the Los Angeles Lakers. NBA playoff betting action from American Airlines Center in Dallas tips at 12:30 p.m. (PT) on ABC.

The Don Best odds screen lists Dallas as a 2½-point favorite to complete the broom job with 188 points for the Game 4 total.

The Mavericks, who are now -1000 to win this series, have really asserted themselves defensively in this series. This was always a team that was about running and gunning, and trying to figure out how to outscore the opposition. Now though, the whole philosophy for Dirk Nowitzki and his Mavericks have changed, and this might be the difference to getting the team back into the NBA Finals for just the second time in the Dirk era.

The Lakers, who are just loaded with all sorts of talent, have been held to 94, 81, and 92 points in the first three games, numbers which aren't going to win much of anything against any team at this level. Kobe Bryant has been made to look old and decrepit, scoring 76 points in three games, 36 of which came in Game 1.

Bryant has totaled just nine rebounds and is getting outworked to the basketball. In the 36-point, Game 1 effort, he didn't have a single assist.

Pau Gasol, where have you been? Gasol is going to draw the ire of a number of Lakers fans when this season is said and done unless something truly remarkable happens. For a man that averaged 18.8 PPG and 10.2 RPG in the regular season, Gasol hasn't reached the 18-point mark once in the playoffs. He only has one game with more than 10 boards, and only has three double-doubles in nine games.

Meanwhile, Nowitzki continues to steal the show. He shot 12-of-19 from the floor in Game 3 on Friday night, accounting for 32 points and nine rebounds. He has scored at least 24 points in all three games in this series and is averaging 28.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG against LA.

The road team might be 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series, but there is something definitely out there about the Mavs that has to look appealing as 2 ½-point favorites. Dallas is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games overall, and has gone 8-0-1 ATS so far this postseason.

The Mavericks are also 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games against Pacific Division teams.

Los Angeles is just 5-11 ATS in the last 16 games overall, and the Lakers have only won one game here in Big D since January 2010 (1-3 SU and ATS).

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Playoff Tips

May 8, 2011


The two-time defending champs won’t be making it three in a row unless they can pull off an accomplishment that’s never bee done in NBA history – rally from a 0-3 deficit to win a seven-game series. That’s the task at hand for Los Angeles (61-30 straight up, 42-48-1 against the spread) after blowing a fourth-quarter lead and losing a 98-92 decision at Dallas in Friday night’s Game 3.

The Mavericks trailed by eight with less than seven minutes remaining before Peja Stojakovic sparked a 15-6 run by burying three 3-pointers. The veteran sharpshooter came alive with 11 of his 15 points in the final stanza.

With the game tied 91-91 at the 1:23 mark, Dirk Nowitzki put Dallas (64-27 SU, 52-36-3 ATS) ahead for good with a left-handed bucket in the lane. The perennial All-Star is really on top of his game right now, as evidenced by 32 points and nine rebounds in Game 3. Nowitzki made 12-of-19 from the field, 4-of-5 from beyond the arc and all four of his free-throw attempts.

Jason Terry also came up big for the Mavs, scoring 23 points from off the pine on 7-of-10 shooting from the floor.

L.A. played well enough to win for 45 minutes, getting solid contributions from nearly everyone. Andrew Bynum had a double-double with a team-high 21 points and 10 rebounds. Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom both made half of their shots (8-of-16 apiece), finishing with 18 and 17 points, respectively.

With Ron Artest out in Game 3 due to suspension, Shannon Brown got more minutes and pitched in with 10 points. Pau Gasol wasn’t horrible but his numbers were still well below his regular-season averages (18.8 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game), as he had 12 points, eight boards and two assists.

For Game 4 today at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC, most betting shops are listing Dallas as a 2 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 188. Gamblers can take the Lakers to win outright for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

L.A. will be a road underdog for the sixth time this season. In the five previous spots, the Lakers went 2-3 both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Dallas owns a 23-20-2 spread record at home this year.

The ‘over’ is 2-1 in this series so far, 4-2 in six head-to-head encounters this year. In L.A.’s road assignments this season, the ‘under’ is 27-18. On the other hand, the ‘over’ is 24-20-1 for the Mavs at home.

Chicago (68-22 SU, 53-35-2 ATS) took a 2-1 series lead over the Hawks in the Eastern Conference semifinals by virtue of Friday’s 99-82 win as a 2 ½-point road favorite. Derrick Rose was the difference, coming out on fire with 13 first-quarter points on his way to a 44-point effort. Rose’s aggressiveness set an early tone and lifted the play of his teammates from the get-go. He dished out seven assists compared to only two turnovers.

Joakim Noah dominated at the defensive end, pulling down 15 rebounds and blocking five shots. Taj Gibson produced a double-double with 13 points and 11 boards. Kyle Korver bounced back from a poor shooting night in Game 2 to knock down 3-of-4 treys en route to scoring 11 points.

For a second straight game, Jeff Teague scored a team-high 21 points for the Hawks. The second-year point guard made 8-of-13 shots and committed just one turnover (he has merely two in the series). Josh Smith finished with 17 points, 13 rebounds, four assists and four blocked shots.

Joe Johnson had been having a huge series, but he barely got into double figures with 10 points in Game 3. The five-time All-Star went 4-of-12 from the field and he had only three assists and one rebound. Jamal Crawford was a non-factor, too, scoring seven points.

Other than Teague and Smith, nobody for Atlanta played well. And Smith still took some ill-advised perimeter shots that were met with groans from the crowd.

Larry Drew’s team is now 3-1 both SU and ATS at home in the postseason. The Hawks have been underdogs in each of the four previous situations and that’ll be the case again Sunday.

Most spots are listing the Bulls as 3 ½-point favorites with a total of 179. Bettors can take Atlanta (49-42 SU, 43-48 ATS) on the money line for a plus-140 payout (risk $100 to win $140).

Now gamblers are back to the familiar thought process with Joe Johnson and Co.: Which form of this schizophrenic squad will we get in Game 4? Will we see the Game 1 form (of both the Orlando and Chicago series’s) in which Johnson and Crawford provide the scoring while Horford and Smith own the boards and the lane defensively? Or do we get the frustrated Johnson with poor body language (despite a contract north of $100 million) and the Smith that takes bad shots and cries to the refs every other trip down court?

Horford’s hustle, muscle and willingness to pass are a given, but he was extremely ineffective in the first half of Game 3. A usually reliable shooter from 16 feet and in, Horford was missing badly Friday night. He finished with 10 points and eight rebounds. Horford has to do a better job of keeping Noah off the glass.

The ‘under’ is 54-37 overall for the Hawks, 27-18 in their home outings. The ‘under’ is 51-39 overall for the Bulls, 24-20 in their road assignments. However, the ‘over’ is 2-1 in this series to date and is 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these squads.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 8, 2011

First Round Results

Second Round Results


Favorites are 8-4 straight up
Favorites are 8-4 against the spread
The 'over' is 8-4
Home teams are 7-5

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Memphis (+6.5) Oklahoma City 114-101 UNDERDOG OVER 195
Boston Miami (-5) 99-90 FAVORITE OVER 181

Monday, May 2
Atlanta (+9) Chicago 103-95 UNDERDOG OVER 177.5
Dallas (+6) L.A. Lakers 96-94 UNDERDOG OVER 188.5

Tuesday, May 3
Boston Miami (-5) 102-91 FAVORITE OVER 181
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6.5) 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 197.5

Wednesday, May 4
Atlanta Chicago (-8.5) 86-73 FAVORITE UNDER 181
Dallas (+7) L.A. Lakers 93-81 UNDERDOG UNDER 188

Friday, May 6
Chicago (-2.5) Atlanta 99-82 FAVORITE OVER 178
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 98-92 FAVORITE OVER 187

Saturday, May 7
Oklahoma City Memphis (-3) 101-93 FAVORITE UNDER 200.5
Miami Boston (-3) 97-81 FAVORITE UNDER 183

Sunday, May 8
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Monday, May 9
Miami Boston
Memphis Oklahoma City

Tuesday, May 10
Atlanta Chicago
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Wednesday, May 11
Boston Miami
Memphis Oklahoma City

Thursday, May 12
Chicago Atlanta
L.A. Lakers Dallas

Friday, May 12
Miami Boston
Oklahoma City Memphis

Sunday, May 15
Atlanta Chicago
Memphis Oklahoma City
Dallas L.A. Lakers

Monday, May 16
Boston Miami




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Hawks look to tie up series with Bulls

CHICAGO BULLS

at ATLANTA HAWKS


NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 4 – Chicago leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -3.5, Total: 179

The Atlanta Hawks entered this series against the Chicago Bulls trying to accomplish something no team in franchise history as done since the 1969-70 season, and that is advance to the Conference Finals. Atlanta managed to win Game 1 (breaking a 15-game losing streak in Conference Semifinal games), but have dropped the last two and now need to win Game 4 to avoid facing a 3-1 series deficit.

Derek Rose really showcased his MVP talent on Friday, joining Michael Jordan, Ben Gordon and Flynn Robinson as the only Bulls’ players to score 40+ points in a postseason game. Rose was diverse in how he scored, as he had 12 points each from behind the arc, in the paint and from mid-range, while netting eight points from the FT line. After posting his fourth double-double of the playoffs in Game 2 with 19 points and 14 rebounds, Joakim Noah grabbed 15 rebounds (his seventh career playoff game with at least 15 rebounds) but only made one of eight shots for two points. After getting outrebounded 38-37 in Game 1, Chicago has dominated the boards in the last two games, outrebounding the Hawks by 32 including a +13 on the offensive boards.

Atlanta probably shocked a few people just by getting by the favored Magic in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, and then definitely got people’s attention when they were victorious in Game 1 at Chicago. However, now the Hawks are down two-games-to-one, and need a resurgence from their key players to tie this series up. Joe Johnson scored 34 points in Game 1, but has been invisible the past two games, totaling just 26 points on 11-of-27 shooting. Jamal Crawford was one of the finalists for sixth man of the year this season, after winning it last season, but also has disappeared in the past two games, combining for 18 points after scoring 22 in Game 1. As a team, Atlanta made just 42.1 percent of its shots from 10-to-19 feet and 20.5 percent from beyond 20 feet in its Games 2-3 losses, combined to shoot 52.4 percent and 42.3 percent from those distances in Game 1. On another sour note for the Hawks, only the Lakers and Heat have worse home records ATS than Atlanta has this season (19-26).

It’s been a long time since Atlanta has won a Conference Semifinals game at home. They have dropped 10 straight home playoff games in the Conference Semifinals with their last win coming on May 13, 1996 against Orlando. If the Hawks can get Johnson and Crawford to wake up and play like they did in Game 1 and against the Magic, they can tie this series. However, the Bulls’ defense has been outstanding in these past two games, and with Rose on fire they are very tough to beat. The Bulls are 27-17 ATS on the road this season and I’m taking Chicago minus the points to take a 3-1 series lead.

The FoxSheets shows these two anti-Hawks trends which side with the Bulls:

Play Against - Any team (ATLANTA) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 85 points. (173-113 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.5%, +48.7 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's). (123-73 since 1996.) (62.8%, +42.7 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Mavs try to finish off sweep on Sunday


LOS ANGELES LAKERS

at DALLAS MAVERICKS


NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Semifinals
Game 4 – Dallas leads series 3-0
Tip-off: Sunday, 3:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2.5 Total: 188

The Dallas Mavericks have been considered one of the great underachievers of the last decade in the NBA and have watched many of their terrific regular seasons go down in bad playoff performances. However, this year’s version of the Mavericks has taken a huge step in erasing those memories, and now find themselves just one win away from eliminating the two-time defending champions, and advancing to the Conference Finals.

The Lakers must be pounding their heads at how to stop the Mavericks in the fourth quarter. They allowed a 16-point, second-half lead get away from them in Game 1, then blew an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter in Game 3. For the series, the Mavericks have outscored the Lakers in every quarter except the second, which includes outscoring them by 27 in the fourth quarter. The Lakers finally attacked the basket Friday, shooting 18-of-24 (75 pct) inside five feet of the basket for the first 38:32 of Game 3. However, the Lakers stopped going inside with an eight-point lead, missing their only attempt inside five feet over the last 9:28 of the game. After scoring 36 points in Game 1, Kobe Bryant has combined for just 37 points in the past two games.

The Mavericks have pressed just about every button the right way in winning the first three games. Dirk Nowitzki has been unstoppable, averaging 28.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG, while shooting 56.1 percent from the field and making 7-of-10 from behind the arc in this series. The Mavs bench has also been outstanding, outscoring the Lakers by 27 in Game 3, and by 60 for the series. The Mavericks have won a very impressive 13 straight games ATS dating back to the regular season.

No team has ever rallied from down 3-0 in a best-of-seven playoff series in NBA history, but Bryant believes the Lakers can do so. If they are to do so, they need to find a way to match their production off the bench and figure out some way to slow down Nowitzki. Saying that, I do not think the defending champs will go down quietly. I like the Lakers to win Game 5 and take the series back to LA. I’m taking Los Angeles plus the points.

The FoxSheets says:

Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days. (52-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.2%, +20.1 units. Rating = 1*).

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/07/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
05/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/04/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
05/03/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/02/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/01/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
Totals 12-*12-*0 50.00% -*600

Sunday, May 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

L.A. Lakers - 3:30 PM ET Dallas -2 500
Dallas - Under 188 500

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta +3.5 500
Atlanta - Over 179 500

[StarDust Bum]

Grizzlies try to take 3-1 series lead over Thunder


OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES


NBA Western Conference Semifinals
Game 4 – Memphis leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Monday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Memphis -2.5 Total: 198

The city of Memphis has gone through a lot in the last week with flooding and other issues that have the community rallying together to support each other. A big part of that effort has been the play of the Grizzlies, as people jammed in the FedEx Forum on Saturday to forget about their troubles and support a team that is trying to make history. After their Game 3 win, the Grizzlies are now just two wins away from becoming just the second No. 8 seed to advance to the Conference Finals.

The Thunder dominated most of Game 3, holding a 16-point lead in the second half, but were unable to make plays down the stretch, and now face a 2-1 series deficit. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant really struggled in the fourth quarter and overtime, making a combined 3-for-17 from the field, while Westbrook committed five of his seven turnovers during that time. The Thunder were outscored 38-17 over those final 17 minutes. After combining to score 36 points in Game 2, James Harden and Eric Maynor combined for just 14 in Game 3. Kevin Durant’s struggles on offense can be explained by Tony Allen’s defense. Durant was just 2-of-11 (18.2%) from the floor with four points when guarded by Allen in Game 3, including Durant’s potential go-ahead shot with five seconds remaining in regulation.

Trailing 82-71 halfway through the fourth quarter, the Grizzlies and their crowd took over the game, outscoring the Thunder 30-9 over that timeframe. Mike Conley was outstanding, scoring 18 points and contributing on many plays over the final period and OT. After shooting 48.4 percent inside of 10 feet in the first two games of the series, the Grizzlies struggled to finish down low early, shooting 33.3 percent from inside 10 feet and getting eight such shots blocked in the first three quarters. Memphis turned it around in the fourth and overtime, shooting 56.3 percent inside of 10 feet and getting just one of its 16 attempts blocked. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol were 6-of-21 (28.6%) inside of 10 feet in the first three quarters, attempting half of the Grizzlies shots from that distance. In the fourth quarter and overtime, Randolph and Gasol went 2-of-4 inside of 10 feet, with Mike Conley, Tony Allen and O.J. Mayo taking the bulk of the shots.

Memphis was 0-6 all-time in home playoff games before this season, but has turned the tide around, winning all four of it home playoff games so far in 2011. The Grizzlies are by far the best home team ATS this season (59-31), which includes a 4-0 mark this postseason. The Thunder need to figure how to consistently get Durant good looks at the basket, or this could be a rough rest of series for his team. I like Memphis to win Game 4 and take a 3-1 series lead back to Oklahoma City.

The FoxSheets provide a large amount of highly-rated trends including these three:

MEMPHIS is 21-5 ATS (80.8%, +15.5 Units) when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 101.2, OPPONENT 94.3 - (Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's). (102-51 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +45.9 units. Rating = 3*).

MEMPHIS is 32-12 ATS (72.7%, +18.8 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 101.0, OPPONENT 99.4 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics look to even series with Heat


MIAMI HEAT

at BOSTON CELTICS


NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 4 – Miami leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -1, Total: 181

Boston returned to its 2010 Eastern Conference champion form in Game 3, easily defeating the Heat and getting back in this series. The Celtics now have a chance to send this series back to South Beach tied at two, as they host Miami in Game 4.

The Big Three of Miami (James, Wade, Bosh) dominated the Big Three of Boston (Garnett, Pierce, Allen) in Game 2, outscoring them 80-36. However, Game 3 was a different story. Miami’s Big Three were outscored 70-44 as the Celtics clamped down defensively, holding them to 15-for-41 (36.6%) shooting from the field. The 44 points scored by them is their lowest total of the season. Miami was also cold from three-point range, making just 5-of-23 shots. They also have not figured out how to score in the TD Garden, as three of their four lowest scoring games this season have come at Boston.

Despite losing Rajon Rondo to a dislocated elbow in the second half, the Celtics still kept their head, and then miraculously watched their teammate exit the dressing room and return to the floor. Rondo has made a huge difference for the Celtics this series as they are shooting 15-for-19 from three-point range (5-of-6 in Game 3) off of his passes, compared to 12-of-33 on other shots from behind the arc. Kevin Garnett came to play in Game 3, as his 28 points was his highest output in a playoff game since dropping 33 on the Pistons in Game 5 of the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals. Garnett made 9-of-13 shots from inside 10 feet in Game 3, after taking just a combined 11 shots from that distance in the first two games of this series.

Doc Rivers stated that Shaquille O’Neal (calf), Rondo (elbow) and Delonte West (shoulder) are all likely to play Monday in Game 4. O’Neal finally returned to the court Saturday, but only played eight minutes and scored two points.

I didn’t think the Celtics had a performance like Game 3 in them, but they proved me wrong and showed that they still are a force to be reckoned with. After sleepwalking through the first two games of this series, Kevin Garnett showed he still can make a difference. It’s not hard to think the Celtics can repeat this performance, judging by the way they have dominated the Heat at home all season. However, Miami needs to prove it is the team to beat in Eastern Conference, and defeating the Celtics at the Garden is a huge check mark on their to-do list in order to get there. Despite its struggles in Beantown this season, I like Miami to take a 3-1 series lead back home.

The FoxSheets shows two-highly rated trends supporting the Heat on Monday:

BOSTON is 7-25 ATS (21.9%, -20.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season. The average score was BOSTON 91.7, OPPONENT 91.6 - (Rating = 4*).

Play On - Road favorites (MIAMI) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. (52-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.2%, +30 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Playoff Tips

May 9, 2011


The Lakers won’t be playing Monday night, but we’ll lead with them anyway. Kobe and Co. won’t be playing again anytime soon, as a matter of fact. Dallas made sure of that by sweeping the two-time defending champs with a ruthless pimpslap Sunday in front of a raucous crowd.

Rick Carlisle’s team advanced to the Western Conference finals by trouncing Los Angeles by a 122-86 count as a 1 ½-point favorite. Dallas raced out to a 24-point lead at intermission thanks to five straight 3-pointers from Jason Terry in the second quarter. Terry, who would tie an NBA Playoffs record with nine treys, hit a couple of more from beyond the arc early in the third quarter to end any hope of a comeback by the Lakers.

Not only did the Lakers quit in the second half, but they started playing dirty and taking cheap shots. Andrew Bynum lost a lot of fans and respect when he met a driving J.J. Barea with an elbow while he was in mid-air. Lamar Odom also made a physical play on Dirk Nowitzki that was ruled intentional, but it wasn’t nearly as bad as Bynum’s unsportsmanlike act.

Let’s touch on the Lakers more in a minute, but let’s get to Monday’s card for now.

Boston (61-28 straight up, 41-46-2 against the spread) held serve at home in Saturday’s Game 3, thumping Miami 97-81 as a three-point home favorite. Kevin Garnett produced his best game of the series, scoring 28 points and grabbing 18 rebounds as the Celtics cut the deficit to 2-1.

They can pull even in Monday’s Game 4 that’s a pick ‘em for wagers on the side, while the total is 181.

Paul Pierce scored 27 points in Game 3 and also pulled down five rebounds to go with five assists compared to only one turnover. Ray Allen and Delonte West added 15 and 11 points, respectively. Rajon Rondo dished out 11 assists and shook off a dislocated elbow that looked like a season-ending injury. After a trip to the locker room, Rondo courageously returned to the game and played well in the final stanza.

After Sunday’s practice, Boston head coach Doc Rivers indicated that all of his injured players, including West (shoulder), Rondo and Shaquille O’Neal (calf), will play tonight. Shaq returned to the court from a long absence in Game 3, scoring two points in eight minutes of playing time.

Miami got solid games from Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers and Joe Anthony, but the rest of the team played poorly. Wade finished with 23 points, seven assists and six rebounds, while Chalmers made 7-of-9 shots en route to a 17-point effort. Anthony posted a double-double with 12 points and 11 boards.

LeBron James connected on just 6-of-16 shots for 15 points and he had as many turnovers (four) as assists. Chris Bosh had just six points and five rebounds on 1-of-6 shooting, while Mike Bibby went scoreless and missed all five of his shot attempts.

Erik Spoelstra’s team might get veteran power forward Udonis Haslem back for Game 4. He’s now participating in full-contact drills and is listed as “questionable.”

Boston has won all three of its home games against Miami this season. The ‘under’ has cashed in all three of those contests, with the 178 combined points falling ‘under’ the 183-point tally in Game 3.

TNT will provide television coverage at 7:05 p.m. Eastern.

The second game of the doubleheader will be Game 4 of the West semifinals in Memphis, where the Grizzlies will try to take a commanding 3-1 series advantage. They rallied from a 16-point deficit in the third quarter to force overtime and eventually win a 101-93 decision Saturday as three-point home ‘chalk.’

Zach Randolph and Mike Conley keyed the second-half surge, as Memphis outscored the Thunder 15-4 in the last 7 ½ minutes of regulation. Randolph finished with 21 points and 21 rebounds, while O.J. Mayo and Conley scored 18 points apiece. Tony Allen played outstanding defense and provided several big plays in the extra session.

Russell Westbrook had 23 points, 12 assists and six rebounds in the losing effort, but his poor decision-making was the main culprit in OKC’s anemic offense at crunch time. Westbrook failed miserably in getting the ball to Kevin Durant, who is arguably the league’s best scorer. Westbrook committed seven turnovers and was just 7-of-22 from the field.

Durant finished with 22 points and 12 rebounds, but Allen’s defense, particularly his close-outs on the perimeter, forced Durant into missing five of his seven 3-point attempts. He was 10-of-24 from the field.

Memphis (52-39 SU, 59-30-2 ATS) has been the NBA’s premier money maker for our purposes all season long. When at FedEx Forum, the Grizzlies have compiled a 30-14-1 spread record. They are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home outings.

Oklahoma City (60-30 SU, 46-42-2 ATS) has lost all three games at Memphis this year and four in a row dating back to the previous season. The Thunder has produced a profit on the road overall, going 24-19-1 ATS.

The concern over OKC power forward Serge Ibaka’s injured ankle was short-lived Saturday afternoon, as he produced 14 points, eight rebounds and six blocked shots. Kendrick Perkins pulled down 13 boards but fouled out in the fourth quarter.

For Game 4, most spots are listing Memphis as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 198. Gamblers can take OKC on the money line for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).

Even though Game 3 went to OT, ‘under’ backers still cashed tickets (total: 200 1/2). The ‘over’ had hit in seven previous head-to-head meetings between Memphis and OKC. The ‘over’ is also on a 9-3 run in the Grizzlies’ last 12 games.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:35 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Atlanta pulled even at 2-2 in its best-of-seven series against Chicago in the East semifinals last night. Josh Smith nearly had a triple-double with 23 points, 16 rebounds and eight assists, while Joe Johnson scored a team-high 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting. Al Horford added 20 points, while Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague finished with 12 points apiece. Derrick Rose scored 34 points and dished out 10 assists, but he needed 32 shots to get those points. Carlos Boozer, who has been battling turf toe and playing fewer minutes, had his best game of the series with 18 points and six boards. However, the Bulls got only two points on 1-of-8 shooting from Kyle Korver.

--A number of books had proposition wagers for last night’s Game 4 of the Hawks-Bulls. For Derrick Rose’s total points scored, his 34 went ‘over’ the 27-point total. Boozer was a three-point underdog to Horford in points plus rebounds and Boozer backers cashed tickets. Horford has only five rebounds for 25 compared to Boozer’s 24 on 18 and six.

--Johnson’s total was 18 so his 24 went ‘over,’ but Crawford’s 12 points stayed ‘under’ the 14-point tally.

--The ‘over’ is now 3-1 in the Hawks-Bulls series.

--I’m thinking Bynum has to be suspended for several games, maybe even 7-10, to start next season for that cheap shot at the smallest player on the court.

--Memo to TNT: I don’t want to hear Chris Webber interrupting Charles Barkley when he’s talking – ever!

[StarDust Bum]

Betting on Boston

May 9, 2011

NBA RUNNER-UPS Back in the Playoff Waters
Nowadays everyone is familiar with the term’ Super Bowl loser’.

Simply out, these are teams that made it to the NFL Super Bowl game but failed to win the trophy.

The one common denominator of these teams is they have struggled, both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), the following season.

I explored the same school of thought with NBA teams that made it to, but lost, in the Championship series. More specifically, how these have fared in the postseason the following year.

The results were interesting, to say the least. Presented below are four situations that warrant attention when it comes to backing defending runner-ups in the playoffs. All results are from 1991 through last season.

RESTED FOES CAUSE WOES

Rest can be a killer when opposing teams happen to be the beneficiary, especially for these defending losers.

That’s because these teams are 13-29-1 ATS when facing an opponent playing with three or more days of rest, including 5-15-1 ATS when the runner-ups are playing off a SU and ATS win.

TWICE IS ENOUGH

These defending losers don’t like it when they’ve been beat two times in a row.

That’s confirmed by their 17-12 ATS overall mark in games when playing off back-to-back defeats, including 13-5 ATS when they are on their home court.

A DOZEN WILL DO

Defending runner-ups do not like it when they’ve suffered a bad beating, and it shows.

These guys are a highly profitable 19-8-1 ATS in playoff games off a loss of 12 or more points, including 12-4 ATS at home. FYI: they are on a nice 6-0 SU and ATS run in this role the last three years.

WORST IN SHOW

Let a defending loser pull the rug out on an opponent as an underdog and watch their tail stop wagging.

These teams are 10-18-2 ATS off a SU underdog playoff win, including 4-11 ATS at home.

There you have it. A quick look into some of the do’s and don’ts when it comes to ‘playing on’ or ‘playing against’ defending NBA Championship game losers.

Keep a close on the Boston Celtics this season and play accordingly.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 9, 2011

Second Round Results


Favorites are 9-5 straight up
Favorites are 9-5 against the spread
The 'over' is 10-4
Home teams are 9-5

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Memphis (+6.5) Oklahoma City 114-101 UNDERDOG OVER 195
Boston Miami (-5) 99-90 FAVORITE OVER 181

Monday, May 2
Atlanta (+9) Chicago 103-95 UNDERDOG OVER 177.5
Dallas (+6) L.A. Lakers 96-94 UNDERDOG OVER 188.5

Tuesday, May 3
Boston Miami (-5) 102-91 FAVORITE OVER 181
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6.5) 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 197.5

Wednesday, May 4
Atlanta Chicago (-8.5) 86-73 FAVORITE UNDER 181
Dallas (+7) L.A. Lakers 93-81 UNDERDOG UNDER 188

Friday, May 6
Chicago (-2.5) Atlanta 99-82 FAVORITE OVER 178
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 98-92 FAVORITE OVER 187

Saturday, May 7
Oklahoma City Memphis (-3) 101-93 FAVORITE UNDER 200.5
Miami Boston (-3) 97-81 FAVORITE UNDER 183

Sunday, May 8
Chicago Atlanta (+3.5) 100-88 UNDERDOG OVER 179
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 122-86 FAVORITE OVER 187

Monday, May 9
Miami Boston
Memphis Oklahoma City

Tuesday, May 10
Atlanta Chicago

Wednesday, May 11
Boston Miami
Memphis Oklahoma City

Thursday, May 12
Chicago Atlanta

Friday, May 12
Miami Boston
Oklahoma City Memphis

Sunday, May 15
Atlanta Chicago
Memphis Oklahoma City

Monday, May 16
Boston Miami




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Boston Celtics, Miami Heat Game 4

Any thoughts the Miami Heat or their fans might have entertained about sweeping the Boston Celtics can be put to bed now. Boston's 97-81 victory in Game 3 Saturday night was vintage Celtics and helped the defending Eastern Conference champions get back in the series.

The win may have come at a tremendous cost, however. Rajon Rondo suffered a dislocated elbow in the third quarter of the game and though he returned to start the fourth quarter, his status for Monday remains in doubt.

Rondo's status played into the spread being cut in half for Game 4 when Boston opened as a 1½-point favorite. The Don Best odds screen lists Monday's total in the 181-182 point range.

Saturday's contest was decided in the first five minutes of the second half. Trailing the Heat 46-44 at the intermission, Boston went on a 16-4 run to begin the third quarter with Rondo contributing a bucket and three assists.

The Boston point guard was fouled five minutes into the third by Dwyane Wade and fell to the floor during a struggle for a loose ball. Celtics team doctor Brian McKeon helped Rondo to the locker room and put his disjointed left elbow back together. Boston fans rose to their feet when Rondo returned to the court to begin the final quarter.

Rondo finished the game with six points and 11 assists. He scored two baskets in the fourth with his injured wing hanging by his side. Those two buckets represent one more field goal than Miami's Chris Bosh scored the entire game with two good arms.

Kevin Garnett led all scorers with his best effort of the series, netting 28 points while also grabbing 18 rebounds. The veteran forward had accounted for just 22 points and 14 boards in the first two games combined. Paul Pierce added 27 for Boston, canning five of his seven long range shots.

Wade paced Miami with 23 points, the second time this series and fourth time in the last six games he was on top of the Heat score sheet.

The home favorite has covered each contest in this series so far; Saturday's final went 'under' (183) after Games 1 and 2 in Miami both went comfortably 'over' the totals.

Rondo's return to the floor in Game 3 would seem to indicate he can and will play Monday. How effective he will be is another question. What is not in question is how much he means to the Boston offense.

Udonis Haslem is officially questionable for the game, but since he hasn't played since injuring his left foot in November and subsequently having surgery, his status appears inconsequential for Miami.

TNT has Monday's broadcast starting at 4:00 p.m. (PT). Tuesday's day off is followed by Game 5 in Miami on Wednesday (4 p.m. PT) with Game 6 back in Beantown on Friday night assuming the Celtics can find another dubya between now and then.