The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Giants (1-5) @ Philadelphia (1-4-1)
— In their last four games, Giants’ offense has four TD’s on 33 drives.
— Giants’ defense scored a TD in each of their last two games.
— Big Blue is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog TY, losing by 4-8-3 points on road.
— Giants covered 13 of their last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Four of their six games stayed under the total.

— Eagles are 0-2-1 SU at home, giving up 30 ppg.
— Philly lost last two games, giving up 38-30 points.
— Underdogs covered five of their six games this season.
— Eagles are 4-11-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Four of their six games went over the total.

— Eagles won last seven series games; five of those wins were by 6 or fewer points.
— Giants lost their last four visits here, by 5-3-3-6 points.

Browns (4-2) @ Cincinnati (1-4-1)
— Browns got crushed by Ravens/Steelers, won other four games, scoring 37.5 ppg.
— Cleveland gave up 38 points in all three road games, losing two of them.
— Browns were outscored in second half in five of their six games.
— Last 4+ years, Cleveland is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.

— Bengals lost last two weeks, 27-3/31-27; they blew a 21-0 lead at Indy last week.
— Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS this season.
— Bengals split their two home games, losing 16-13 to Chargers.
— Cincy is 2-6-1 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
— Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

— Browns (-8) beat Cincy 35-30 in Week 2; they ran ball for 215 yards, averaged 9.5 yards/pass attempt- they scored five TD’s on eight drives.
— Cleveland won five of last six series games, but lost four of last five visits to Cincinnati, with all four losses by 10+ points.

Cowboys (2-4) @ Washington (1-5)
— Short week for Dallas after their dismal home loss Monday.
— Last five games, Dallas is minus-13 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 0-6 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
— This is their first road game since Week 3; they lost first two road games, 20-18/38-31.
— Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.

— Washington lost its last five games, giving up 29 ppg.
— Last four games, Washington was outscored 46-16 in second half.
— Backup QB Allen gets his third straight start here they outgained the Giants 337-240 in LW’s 20-19 loss. Allen is 6-9 as an NFL starter.
— Washington is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.
— Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

— Dallas won seven of last eight series games, with four of last five wins by 10+ points.
— Cowboys won six of last seven visits here.
— Dallas scored 31-31-47 points in last three series games.

Lions (2-3) @ Atlanta (1-5)
— Detroit scored 26-29-34 points in last three games; they won last two road tilts.
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their three losses; 23-16 in their wins.
— Detroit has six takeaways in last three games (+4); they had none in first two games (-2)
— Lions are 10-12 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog.
— NFC North teams are 11-5 ATS outside the division.

— Falcons won their first game under interim coach Morris LW, at Minnesota.
— Atlanta lost all three of its home games, giving up 30.3 ppg.
— Falcons are 5-9 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Four of their six games went over the total.
— NFC South teams are 1-6 ATS in non-divisional home games.

— Atlanta won four of last five series games; last meeting was 2017.
— Home side lost five of last seven series games.
— This is the Lions’ first visit to Atlanta since 2008.

Panthers (3-3) @ New Orleans (3-2)
— Bridgewater plays against his old team here.
— Carolina won three of its last four games.
— Panthers won two of three road games, losing 31-17 in Tampa.
— Team leading at halftime won all six Carolina games.
— Carolina is 14-10 ATS in last 21 games as a road underdog- they won both their games on artificial turf this year.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

— New Orleans scored 30+ points in four of its five games.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— New Orleans is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite.
— Saints are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 post-bye games.
— All five of their games went over the total.

— Saints won six of last seven series games; three of their last four series wins were by 5 or fewer points.
— Carolina lost four of last five visits to Bourbon Street; three of their last four losses here were by 5 or fewer points.

Bills (4-2) @ NJ Jets (0-6)
— Short week for Bills after their home loss to KC Monday.
— Buffalo lost its last two games, giving up 42-26 points, after a 4-0 start.
— Bills scored 27+ points in their wins; 16-17 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 4-3 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
— Last four games, Buffalo opponents converted 29-48 third down plays.
— Five of their six games went over the total.

— Jets haven’t won or covered yet, losing home games by 18-9-20 points.
— Weird thing is, they’re +5 in turnovers the last three games, but were still outscored by a combined 91-38.
— Jets are 4-7-1 ATS in last dozen games as a home underdog, 0-2 TY.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

— Buffalo (-6.5) beat the Jets 27-17 at home in Week 1, outgunning Jets 404-254- they led 21-3 at halftime, won field position by 19 yards with an even turnover ratio.
— Bills are 6-5 in last 11 series games; they won 41-10/17-16 in last two visits here.

Packers (4-1) @ Houston (1-5)
— Green Bay won four of its five games, losing LW in Tampa.
— Packers are already 2-0 in domes TY, winning 43-34/37-30.
— Green Bay went 3/out on 7 of 13 drives LW, after it happened only once in their first 35 drives this season.
— Packers are 3-4 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
— NFC North teams are 11-5 ATS outside the division.

— Texans scored 30-36 points in splitting first two games under interim coach Crennel; they scored 20 ppg in their 0-4 start.
— Tennessee gained 601 yards vs Houston LW, running ball for 263.
— Texans averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in each of last three games.
— Houston is 3-5 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 2-5 ATS.

— Green Bay won three of four series games; the loss was in ’08.
— Packers won 16-13/42-24 in their two visits here.
— JJ Watt is from Waukesha, Wisconsin.

Seahawks (5-0) @ Arizona (4-2)
— Seattle won its first five games, scoring 33.6 ppg.
— Seahawks have scored 23 TD’s on 52 drives this seasom
— Seattle won its first two road games, 38-25/31-23; they’re 7-4-4 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
— Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Four of their five games went over the total.

— Short week for Cardinals after their win in Dallas Monday.
— Arizona scored 30+ points in three of its four wins- they scored 23-21 in their losses.
— Redbirds are 4-3 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.
— Five of their six games stayed under the total.
— Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

— Road team is 9-1-1 SU in last 11 series games.
— Seahawks won their last six visits to the desert, with four of the wins by 12+ points.

49ers (3-3) @ New England (2-3)
— Garoppolo returns to Foxboro to face his former team.
— 49ers won both their road games, which were against Jets/Giants in New Jersey.
— Niners are 3-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 24.
— 49ers are 12-7 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog.
— NFC West teams are 12-7 ATS outside the division.

— Patriots lost last two games, scoring two TD’s on 21 drives, with seven turnovers.
— New England won two of three home games, winning by 10-16 points.
— New England is 26-14-1 ATS in last 41 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 3-2 in Patriot games this season.
— AFC East teams are 5-10 ATS outside the division.

— New England won four of last five series games, with last three wins all by 9+ points.
— 49ers are 4-3 in Foxboro; their last visit was in 2012.

Chiefs (5-1) @ Denver (2-3)
— Short week for Chiefs after their win in Buffalo Monday nite.
— Chiefs are 3-0 on foreign soil, winning by 3-14-9 points.
— KC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs ran for 245 yards Monday, most-ever under Andy Reid.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

— Denver won its last two games; they won LW without scoring a TD.
— Broncs lost both their home games, 16-14/28-10.
— Denver allowed 321-288 yards in its wins; they’re 0-3 allowing more than 321.
— Broncos are 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog.
— Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

— Chiefs won last nine series games (30-6/23-3 LY).
— KC won its last five visits to Denver; three of their last four wins here were by 4 or fewer points.

Steelers (5-0) @ Tennessee (5-0)
— Steelers won first five games (4-1 ATS), scoring 31.2 ppg.
— This is only 2nd road game for Pittsburgh; they beat Giants 26-16 in Swamp in Week 1.
— Steelers are 5-9-2 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
— Steelers outscored last three foes 46-15 in second half.
— Three of their last four games went over.
— AFC North teams are 11-3-1 ATS outside the division.

— Tennessee has three wins by 3 or fewer points, plus an OT win.
— Titans scored 21+ points in 2nd half, in each of their last three games.
— Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
— Titans’ last four games went over the total.
— AFC South teams are 6-9 ATS outside the division.

— Steelers won five of last seven series games.
— Pittsburgh lost four of its last six visits to Nashville.

Buccaneers (4-2) @ Las Vegas (3-2)
— Tampa Bay won four of its last five games, scoring 32.8 ppg.
— Bucs are allowing only 64.7 rushing yards/game.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Three of their last four games stayed under.
— NFC South non-divisional road teams are 5-3 ATS.

— Jon Gruden hosts the team he led to their only Super Bowl title.
— Raiders scored 34-34-40 points in their wins, 20-23 in losses.
— Las Vegas has led only one of its games at halftime, beck in Week 1.
— All five of their games went over the total.
— AFC West teams are 10-4-2 ATS outside the division.

— Raiders won seven of ten series games.
— Buccaneers lost five to six visits to play Raiders in LA/Oakland.

Jaguars (1-5) @ LA Chargers (1-4)
— Jaguars lost last five games, are 0-4 ATS in last four.
— Jacksonville gave up 32 ppg in last five games; their road losses are by 3-7-16 points.
— Jaguars are 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Three of their last four games stayed under.
— AFC South teams are 6-9 ATS outside the division.

— Chargers lost their last four games, two of them in OT.
— Last two games, Bolts were outscored 44-14 in second half.
— LA lost its two home games, by total of eight points.
— Chargers are 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— AFC West teams are 10-4-2 ATS outside the division.

— Chargers won seven of last eight series games; they won 45-13 in Jacksonville LY.
— Bolts scored 31+ points in six of those eight games.
— Jaguars lost their last four visits to San Diego, all by 13+ points.

Bears (5-1) @ Rams (4-2)
— Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
— Bears won all three of their road games SU, and were underdog in all three.
— Chicago is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Four of their last five games stayed under.
— NFC North teams are 11-5 ATS outside the division.

— Rams won both their home games, 20-17/17-9.
— LA has outscored opponents 79-25 in second half of games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 11-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— LA’s last three games stayed under the total.
— NFC West teams are 12-7 ATS outside the division.

— Home side won five of last six series games.
— Teams split last four series games.
— Bears split their last eight visits to StL/LA.
— Last two years: Bears 15-6 (icy weather), Rams 17-7

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack
Odds for this week’s PGA stop, the ZoZo Championship:
+1100— Rahm
+1275— Schauffele, Thomas
+1450— McIlroy
+1625— Morkiawa
+2400— Hatton
+2700— Reed

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 221,150
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Freshmen come in thinking, ‘If I can score, I can play.’ They quickly find out if they can defend, they’ll play.”
Steve Fisher

Thursday’s quiz
There are two guys in the Pro Football Hall of Fame who also won a gold medal in the Olympics; one is Bob Hayes, who is the other?
Hint: He played before the Super Bowl era

Wednesday’s quiz
In The Wizard of Oz, Dorothy was from Kansas.

Tuesday’s quiz
Tampa Bay Rays lost to the Phillies in their other World Series appearance, in 2008.


********************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

13) Rays 6, Dodgers 4 (series 1-1)
— Blake Snell didn’t allow a hit until 5th inning; bullpen got the last 16 outs.
— Brandon Lowe snapped out of a slump, homered twice for the Rays.
— Joey Wendle knocked in three runs for Tampa Bay.
— Game 3 is Friday night in Arlington.

12) Dodger OF Cody Bellinger hit 47 homers last year, seems headed to becoming a big star, but he’s got a ways to go before he catches up with his dad, at least in one category.

Clay Bellinger played in 193 big league games over parts of four seasons with Bronx and the Angels; he hit 12 career homers, struck out 82 times, bur he also won THREE World Series rings, two in New York, a third one with the Angels. Cody is trying for his first one this year.

Today, I’m looking at how NFL teams do on drives that start 75+ yards from the goal line; can.a team’s offense carry the team, if need be? Lot of strong teams have really good special teams and defenses, so the offense’s job is a somewhat simpler, but which offenses drive the field the best?

11) Top teams in points/possession on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
— Raiders 3.37 points/possession
— Steelers 3.16
— Chiefs 2.95
— Dolphins 2.62
— Rams 2.58

10) Worst teams in points/possession on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
— Jets 0.48 points/possession
— Washington 0.69
— Broncos 0.86
— Bears 1.24
— Cleveland 1.43

If a team gives up a defensive TD/safety, it goes against them in this category.

9) Obviously, teams that have better field position are more likely to win. These teams have started the lowest %age of their drives 75 yards from the goal line:
47.5% (29 of 61)— Ravens
50%— Colts
51.0%— Steelers
57.8%— Buccaneers
60.8%— Titans

All teams with winning records.

8) These teams have started the highest %age of their drives 75 yards from the goal line:
85.7% (48 of 56)— Jets
82.5%— Vikings
81.5%— Chargers
79.4%— Cowboys
78.3%— Patriots

Interesting that New England has started 36 of 46 drives 75+ yards from the goal line.

7) Since 1986, NFL teams that started the season 0-6 won an average of 3.0 games the rest of the season.

6) Clemson is a 46-point favorite over Syracuse Saturday; there is one sportsbook in America offering a money line on this game. Risk $1,000 on Clemson, win a dollar, One dollar.

5) Dallas Cowboys are 3-10 in their last 13 playoff games, losing their last eight road playoff games- their last road playoff win was 1993, in San Francisco.

4) Jets have been outscored 114-29 in the second half of games this year.

3) Only one person has won an Olympic Gold Medal and also played on a Super Bowl champ; Bob Hayes, who was a very fast receiver for the Cowboys, from 1965-74. He won a gold medal in the 100 meters sprint at the 1964 Olympics in Tokyo.

2) Memphis Tigers’ WR Damonte Coxie has opted out of this season, and is headed to prepare for the NFL Draft; he caught 16 balls for 175 yards in two games this year, then sat out the UCF game Saturday, and now he’s bolted the team for greener pa$ture$.

Last two years, Coxie caught a combined 148 passes for 2,450 yards and 16 TD’s.

1) 3-3 Miami Dolphins are changing QB’s after their bye week; rookie Tua Tagovailoa will get his first NFL start against the Rams next week, replacing veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had been playing really well.

[StarDust Bum]

Giants vs. Eagles Week 7 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

I should have known that backing (and winning) with quarterback Carson Wentz and the Eagles in their first appearance in prime time a few weeks ago would have me covering numerous prime time Eagles games shortly thereafter.

Week 7 begins with Philadelphia hosting the New York Giants in a game that I still don't understand how the NFC East continues to get these television spots, and then next week it's a Sunday Night Football appearance for Philadelphia when they host the Cowboys.

The Giants are scheduled for MNF as well next week too. For the life of me I have not seen what this division has done in recent years to continue to earn these stand alone games.

Betting Resources

Week 7 Matchup: NFC East
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Date: Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Carson Wentz and the Eagles seek their second win of the season as they host the Giants on Thursday. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Philadelphia -4.5
Money-Line: Philadelphia -240, N.Y. Giants +200
Total: 45

2020 Betting Stats

N.Y. Giants

Overall: 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Road: 0-3 SU, 3-0 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 16.8 (Rank 31)
Defense PPG: 25.3 (Rank 16)
Offense YPG: 275.3 (Rank 32)
Defense YPG: 342.0 (Rank 12)

Philadelphia

Overall: 1-4-1 SU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U
Home: 0-2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.5 (Rank 22)
Defense PPG: 29.2 (Rank 23)
Offense YPG: 329.3 (Rank 27)
Defense YPG: 355.2 (Rank 17)

Handicapping the Total

It's actually the total that I believe makes more sense to get involved with here, as I don't know how you can comfortably be confident in taking either side on the point spread right now. That's going to be a brief topic when I get to it, but regarding the total, I am leaning towards the way of this game being one of those 'sloppy shootouts' where mistakes made directly lead to points.

That's not going to be the common belief here at least from the Eagles side of things when you see their injury report, but I've got to hand it to Wentz, he's showing he cares more and is finding a way to put up points no matter who's out there with him.

Dealing with injuries on offense is nothing new for the Eagles this year, yet they've put up 23, 25, 29, and 28 points in their last four games, and have played some pretty good defenses in that stretch as well.

I generally want nothing to do with trusting Wentz to positively produce something, but he's trying to make it work in whatever way it can right now and I've got to respect that. He also knows this Giants personnel well, and even with a new coaching regime there, I'm not sure anything changes from a confidence standpoint in terms of moving the ball for Wentz given New York is still a 1-5 SU team this year.

A lack of familiarity and/or practice time Wentz has had with his weapons may hinder the execution of this Eagles attack – along with Wentz's usual handful of air mailed throws – but against this Giants defense that shouldn't be a huge concern.

The Giants are going to expect to be able to move the ball as well against an Eagles team that has allowed 30 or more the past two weeks, and has only given up fewer than 23 points once this year. You give the Giants 23 points here and the Eagles hold serve with what the point-spread suggests, this total starts to look a little low right?

Now, of course this could be such a bad timing situation for these two teams in it being a short week and the like, where something like a 20-14 game is what we get. But that's always going to be the risk, and when the common approach is to already not want to trust either offense here for an 'over' play, why not put a little faith out there in those guys.

They are pros after all, and somehow my trust in a guy who I've believed is highly overrated for a long time now (Wentz) was already somehow rewarded this year.

It was just a few Thursday's ago that we had a Broncos/Jets game on the card and the same hesitance to trust those offenses was the common theme. Well, a 37-28 shootout broke out that evening to easily cash the 'over', and following a similar script is the way I'm willing to bet this Giants/Eagles game plays out.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 19, 2019 - Philadelphia 34 at N.Y. Giants 17, Eagles -4, Over 44
Dec. 9, 2019 - Philadelphia 23 vs. N.Y. Giants 17 (OT), Giants +9.5, Under 45.5
Nov. 25, 2018 - Philadelphia 25 vs. N.Y. Giants 22, Giants +4.5, Under 49
Oct. 11, 2018 - Philadelphia 34 at N.Y. Giants 13, Eagles -1.5, Over 45

Handicapping the Side

I'll have to save some of the adjectives for Wentz's play for the prime time piece next week against Dallas, but I said in the Eagles first piece earlier this year that I never really want any part of him as a favorite, and that holds true here. We've already seen an initial surge of Giants support from the opener of +6, and while it has held steady in its current range for the most part, the Giants side would be the only way I could look.

Even with New York off their first win of the year, they are still just a .500 ATS team in their last eight division games dating back to the start of last year (4-4 ATS).

Three of those four ATS wins in division play have come on the road though, and the fact that they've scored at least 17 points in all eight of those games suggests that understanding the personnel within their division is something Giants QB Daniel Jones is getting comfortable in taking advantage of when he can.

But this is still the New York Giants we are talking about, the team that coughed up a big lead to the Bears, have never really been in it against far better competition (Pittsburgh, SF, LAR), let Dallas come back to beat them with two consecutive FG's in the final two minutes, and nearly coughed up that first win they ultimately did get a week ago.

The Giants just find ways to lose as well, and that makes them an easy pass too.

Key Injuries

N.Y. Giants

LB Tae Crowder: Hamstring - Questionable
CB Darnay Holmes: Neck - Questionable
S Adrian Colbert: Shoulder - Questionable
WR C.J. Board: Concussion - Questionable
LB Oshane Ximines: Shoulder - Out

Philadelphia

TE Zach Ertz: Ankle - Out
WR Alshon Jeffery: Foot - Out
RB Miles Sanders: Knee - Out
T Jack Driscoll: Ankle - Out
DT Malik Jackson: Quad - Out
S K'Von Wallace: Shoulder - Doubtful
LB Duke Riley: Ribs - Probable
T Lane Johnson: Ankle - Probable
WR DeSean Jackson: Hamstring - Probable
CB Avonte Maddox: Ankle - Probable
S Marcus Epps: Ribs - Questionable

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYG at PHI 08:20 PM

NYG +4.5

U 44.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/19/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/18/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........76-82-3.......48.10%.....-75.00

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 7
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Green Bay at Houston
-- The Packers are 13-0 ATS (5.81 ppg) since Dec 02, 2012 as a favorite of more than three points coming off a game where they scored at least six points fewer than their team total.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Green Bay at Houston
-- The Texans are 0-11 ATS (-8.45 ppg) since Nov 05, 2017 when the total is at least 40 and they are coming off a road loss.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Las Vegas
-- The Raiders are 11-0-2 OU (6.92 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 coming off a road game where Derek Carr threw at least two touchdowns.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Cleveland at Cincinnati
-- The Browns are 12-0-1 OU (13.62 ppg) since Sep 30, 2018 coming off a game where they threw for less than 200 yards.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Tennessee
-- The Steelers are 0-20-1 OU (-7.19 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 coming off a game where they threw for less than 205 yards.


NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Detroit at Atlanta
-- The Falcons are 0-10 ATS (-12.00 ppg) since Dec 28, 2014 as a home favorite coming off a game where they allowed less than 80 rushing yards.


Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at HOU 01:00 PM
GB -3.0
U 57.0
+500 +500

CAR at NO 01:00 PM
CAR +6.5
U 49.5
+500 +500

DET at ATL 01:00 PM
DET +1.5
O 55.0
+500 +500

CLE at CIN 01:00 PM
CIN +3.0
U 51.0
+500 +500

BUF at NYJ 01:00 PM
BUF -10.5
U 46.5
+500 +500

DAL at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS -1.0
O 45.0
+500 +500

TB at LV 04:05 PM
LV +5.5
O 51.5
+500 +500

JAC at LAC 04:25 PM
LAC -7.5
U 49.0
+500 +500

KC at DEN 04:25 PM
DEN +7.5
U 44.0
+500 +500

SF at NE 04:25 PM
NE -2.5
U 45.0
+500 +500

SEA at ARI 08:20 PM
SEA -3.5
U 55.0
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/25/2020 9-12-1 43.18% -2100 Detail
10/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/19/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/18/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........85-94-4.......47.78%.....-96.00

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack
Home favorites/home underdogs in college football leagues:
AAC: 2-8-1 HF……4-3 HU
ACC: 11-9-1 HF……9-3 HU
Big 14: 3-1 HF……2-1 HU
Big X: 8-4-1 HF……4-3 HU
C-USA: 1-11 HF……2-3 HU
MW: 2-1 HF……2-0 HU
SEC: 7-7 HF……8-7 HU
Sun Belt: 6-3 HF……3-1 HU

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 225,197
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“A pessimist is somebody who complains about the noise when opportunity knocks.”
Oscar Wilde

Monday’s quiz
Only two head coaches (one active, one retired) have won a Rose Bowl and a Super Bowl; who are they?

Sunday’s quiz
Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers played college football at NC State; Wilson played three years for the Wolfpack, then transferred to Wisconsin for his last year.

Saturday’s quiz
Eight teams have played in a Super Bowl, but have never won one.


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Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

Browns 37, Cincinnati 34
— Mayfield threw a 24-yard TD pass with 0:11 left to win this exciting game.
— Browns’ last five drives: 40 plays, 379 yards, five TD’s (34 points)
— Cleveland split its four road games, giving up 37 ppg.
— Last 4+ years, Cleveland is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.

— Bengals had ball in Cleveland red zone on 7 of their 8 drives.
— Rookie QB Burrow threw for 406 yards; Bengals scored TD’s on their last two drives.
— Bengals scored 30-34 points against Cleveland this year, but lost both games.
— Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS this season.
— Divisional home underdogs are 8-0 ATS so far this season.

Washington 25, Cowboys 3
— Dallas is first team EVER to allow 20+ first half points, six games in a row.
— Last six games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 0-7 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
— Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— Dallas offense in 2nd half: 19 plays, 30 yards, 3 first downs, zero points.

— Washington outrushed Dallas 208-83.
— Washington had lost its previous five games, before this easy win.
— This is only 2nd win for Washington in last nine series games.
— Washington in 1st half, on 5 drives: 33 plays, 276 yards, three TD’s.
— Washington sacked two Dallas QB’s 6 times; they KO’d Andy Dalton.

Lions 23, Atlanta 22
— Stafford threw an 11-yard TD pass on the last play of the game for the win.
— Prater made FG’s of 50-51-49 yards; the game-winning PAT was 50 yards long.
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their three losses; 22-23-16 in their wins.
— Detroit won field position by 12-yard average.
— NFC North teams are 13-5 ATS outside the division.

— Atlanta scored a TD with 1:04 left, instead of taking a knee that would’ve ended the game, and that gave Detroit the chance they needed to win the game.
— Atlanta lost all four of its home games, giving up 28.5 ppg.
— Falcons are 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Home side lost six of last eight series games.
— NFC South teams are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional home games.

New Orleans 27, Panthers 24
— Carolina just barely missed a 65-yard FG with 1:55 left that would’ve tied it.
— Panthers ran ball only 14 times for 37 yards- they only ran 43 plays overall.
— Carolina converted 6-9 third down plays; New Orleans 12-14.
— Carolina is 15-10 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
— Team leading at halftime won all seven Carolina games.

— New Orleans outgained Panthers 415-283.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27-24 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— New Orleans is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite.
— Saints had ball six times; three TD’s, two FG’s and a fumble.
— All six of their games went over the total.
— Saints won seven of last eight series games; four of their last five series wins were by 5 or fewer points.

Bills 18, NJ Jets 10
— Buffalo won game without scoring a TD; they made 6-8 FG’s.
— Bills had ball nine times, and tried FG’s on 8 of the 9 drives.
— Buffalo won field position by 10 yards, ran 72 plays, to 51 for Jets.
— Total yardage in game: 422-190, Bills.
— Last time Buffalo won without scoring a TD? Week 13 of 2007, in a 17-16 win at Washington.

— Jets haven’t won yet, but they covered here- they’ve lost all their home games by 18-9-20-8 points.
— Weird thing is, they’re +4 in turnovers the last four games, but were still outscored by a combined 109-48.
— Jets in second half: 16 plays, four yards, 2 first downs, no points.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Divisional home underdogs are 8-0 ATS so far this season.

Packers 35, Houston 20
— Packers scored TD’s on four of their first six drives.
— Green Bay won five of its six games, losing in Week 6 to Tampa.
— Packers are 3-0 in domes this season, scoring 43-37-35 points.
— Green Bay converted 7-12 3rd down plays; they did have a punt blocked.
— NFC North teams are 13-5 ATS outside the division.

— Texans lost six of their first seven games, giving up 28+ points in every game.
— Total yardage was close: 379-365 Packers, but Green Bay led 21-0 at the half.
— Houston is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-6 ATS.

Steelers 27, Tennessee 24
— Steelers won first six games (5-1 ATS), scoring 30.5 ppg.
— Pittsburgh’s first two drives: 29 plays, 136 yards, two TD’s, TOP: 16:23.
— Steelers led 24-7 at halftime, then hung on for dear life.
— Pittsburgh won six of last eight series games.
— Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

— Tennessee has played five games decided by 3 or fewer points or in OT.
— Titans scored 17+ points in 2nd half, in each of their last four games.
— Tennessee ran only 56 plays in this game; Steelers ran 74.
— Over is 3-1-1 in Titans’ last five games.
— AFC South teams are 7-10 ATS outside the division.

49ers 33, New England 6
— 49ers ran ball for 197 yards, outgained New England 467-247
— Niners are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 24.
— 49ers are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.
— NFC West teams are 13-7 ATS outside the division.
— First half overs are 66-37-2 so far this season.

— Patriots lost last three games, scoring two TD’s on 30 drives, with 11 turnovers.
— New England ran only 49 plays, were 1-6 on 3rd down, threw four INTs.
— Last three games, Patriots are minus-9 in turnovers, were outscored 41-9 in first half.
— Newton was benched in this game after going 9-15/98 with three INT’s.
— AFC East teams are 5-11 ATS outside the division.

Chiefs 43, Denver 16
— Chiefs scored 43, and didn’t convert a third down (0-8).
— Chiefs are 4-0 on foreign soil, winning by 3-14-9-27 points.
— KC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs scored a defensive TD and ran a kick back for a TD.
— Chiefs won last ten series games, last three by total of 96-25.

— Denver turned ball over four times, allowed a kick return TD.
— Broncos lost all three of their home games, 16-14/28-10/43-16.
— Chiefs won their last four visits to Denver.
— Divisional home underdogs are now 8-1 ATS so far this season.

Buccaneers 45, Las Vegas 20
— Buccaneers’ last 7 drives: five touchdowns, one FG.
— Tampa Bay won five of its last six games, scoring 36.5 ppg.
— Bucs are allowing only 66.3 rushing yards/game.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— NFC South non-divisional road teams are 6-3 ATS.

— Raiders scored 34-34-40 points in their wins, 20-23-20 in losses.
— Las Vegas has led only one of its games at halftime, beck in Week 1.
— All six of their games went over the total.
— Raiders didn’t have a sack or a takeaway, allowed 8.2 yards/pass attempt.

LA Chargers 39, Jaguars 29
— Jaguars trailed 16-0 early, then scored three straight TD’s, last one on a blocked punt.
— Jaguars lost last six games, are 0-5 ATS in last five.
— Jacksonville gave up 33.2 ppg in its last six games.
— Jaguars are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South teams are 6-12 ATS outside the division.

— Rookie QB Herbert threw for 347 yards, got his first NFL win.
— Chargers outgained Jacksonville 484-294.
— Last five times Bolts had ball: 31 plays, 264 yards, three TD’s, FG, missed FG
— Herbert ran 9 times for 66 yards; he was LA’s leading rusher.
— AFC West teams are 11-5-2 ATS outside the division.

Arizona 37, Seahawks 34 OT
— Lockett caught 15 passes for 200 yards, three TD’s.
— Seahawks had 42-yard TD nullified by a holding penalty with 1:04 left in OT.
— Seattle won five of its first six games, scoring 33.7 ppg.
— Road team is 9-2-1 SU in last 12 series games.
— First loss for Seahawks in their last seven visits to the desert.
— Five of their six games went over the total.

— Cardinals scored 10 points in last 2:28 to send game to OT.
— Only time Arizona led the game was when they kicked FG in OT.
— Murray threw for 360 yards, three TD’s; ran ball for 67 yards and a TD.
— Arizona DB Budda Baker picked off a 1st half pass and appeared to headed for a TD, but was caught from behind by Seattle WR Metcalf. Cardinals didn’t score on the ensuing drive.
— Divisional home underdogs are now 9-1 ATS so far this season.

Dodgers 4, Rays 2 (LA leads 3-2)
— Dodgers scored twice in first inning, hung on from there.
— LA bullpen got the last 10 outs without allowing a run.
— Pederson homered for the Dodgers.
— Game 5 is Tuesday night.

[StarDust Bum]

Bears vs. Rams Week 7 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

After being on the right side of things in the Los Angeles game last week for SNF, it's Round Two for handicapping a prime time Rams game as they welcome the MNF crew into town this week.

Last week I talked about how I wasn't ready to believe in this Rams team despite their 4-1 SU record because all of those wins came against NFC East foes. I see very little value in beating NFC East teams for anyone else outside of that division, and a slow and sloppy start vs the 49ers had L.A. chasing their tails uphill for the good majority of that loss to the 49ers.

But this week the Rams are at home laying chalk, against a Bears team that's got some legitimacy questions of their own about the 5-1 SU record they currently sport.

Two of those five wins were basically handed over to the Bears by the Lions and Falcons in those teams blowing big leads vs Chicago, and even a 17-13 win over the Giants – the one common opponent Chicago and L.A. have - doesn't look all that good considering Chicago was up 17-0 at the break of that game and nearly coughed it up themselves.

Wins against Tampa Bay and Carolina have been better showings for the Bears, as both came as small underdogs and in Nick Foles' second and third start with the team. So there are things pointed in the right direction for Chicago in some regards, but will it be enough to make it three straight ATS wins (and maybe SU wins) against the Rams this week?

Betting Resources

Week 7 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: SoFi Stadium
Location: Inglewood, CA
Date: Monday, Oct. 26, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Chicago Bears defense has been very stout this season and the unit has helped the club go 3-0 as visitors. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Los Angeles -6
Money-Line: Los Angeles -265, Chicago +225
Total: 45

2020 Betting Stats

Chicago

Overall: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Road: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 21.3 (Rank 27)
Defense PPG: 19.3 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 337.8 (Rank 28)
Defense YPG: 337.2 (Rank 7)

Los Angeles

Overall: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.3 (Rank 19)
Defense PPG: 19.0 (Rank 5)
Offense YPG: 388.2 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 318.5 (Rank 4)

Handicapping the Total

The Bears come into this game on a 0-3 O/U run as their defense has held three straight opponents to fewer than 20 points in each of those games. Chicago went 2-1 SU in those games despite not scoring more than 23 points themselves, as the move to Foles may generate the headlines at times for Chicago, but this is still a defensive-first team that expects to have their most success in these 23-20 or 24-17 type games.

The Rams are on a 0-3 O/U run as well coming into this game, as their defense has held it's own as well, allowing less than 20 to all four NFC East foes they've beaten and given up 24+ in their two defeats to the rest of the league. The Bears are considered part of the rest of the league in that equation, although they've only scored 21 or more points in just half of their six games in 2020 so far.

That being said, a couple of decent 'under' runs for both sides coming in, and the general profile of at least one team (Chicago) being a defensive-oriented one in the marketplace, has me looking at the contrarian approach for a play on going 'over' this number as the best betting option.

Yes, these two teams have met the past two seasons and played games that finished 15-6 and 17-7, but that and more importantly all the defensive metrics both sides have put up in 2020 are already incorporated into the line.

In an era where we've typically got 6+ games on a NFL Sunday having totals in the 50's, a number as “low” as 45 stands out in such a way that in the bigger picture of league wide trends this year really lends itself to looking at going 'over' this number.

And then when you see it's really been nothing but 'under' money on this game all week with the opener of 47 being steadily bet down to its current status, you realize that the general consensus on this game is related to three things. Those recent 'under' streaks both sides have had, the issues on offense both teams have had scoring points, and the recent head-to-head history between the two where we were lucky to get 20 points between the two of them.

Well, contrarian 'over' plays really don't come up that often, and for someone like myself who loves to be fading public underdogs, fading public 'unders' tend to fall in the same boat.

I get that any positive offensive numbers the Rams have put up still have to come with the qualifier that it came against NFC East teams, but this is still a L.A. squad that enters the week ranked 7th in offensive EPA/play right now, as only offensive “juggernauts” in Tennessee, K.C., Seattle, Green Bay, Vegas, and Buffalo rank ahead of L.A. in that regard.

If the Rams do indeed belong in the same offensive class as some of those teams, they'll prove it against this Bears defense who has their own legitimacy questions about what offenses they've faced, with Tom Brady and a depleted Tampa team on a short week likely being the best of the bunch.

And while the Bears may prefer to play in (and win) 23-20 type games, they know that's not realistic to expect on a weekly basis. If teams can neutralize the Rams pass rush, there are numerous ways to move the ball up and down the field on this team, and you only have to reference the 49ers and Bills games vs L.A. to see that.

Finally, we can't forget that if the Bears mantra is indeed to try and be on the right side of as many 23-20 type games as they can, that total is still just a FG shy of going 'over' this current number.

Doesn't take much in the NFL for a bounce, or penalty, or any number of things to go a certain way to lead to those extra points an 'over' ticket may need late in this game, as today's NFL has shown us that teams can go 'over' a mid-40's total almost by accident.

I believe we may see exactly that happen here.

Head-to-Head History

Nov. 17, 2019 - Los Angeles 17 vs. Chicago 7, Rams -5.5, Under 40
Dec. 9, 2018 - Chicago 15 vs. Los Angeles 6, Bears +3, Under 51

Handicapping the Side

The side in this game is an easy pass all the way around with the legitimacy question marks attached to both teams. I doubted the Rams were as good as their 4-1 SU record suggested last week, and nothing they did in that San Francisco game changed my view on that. Especially not enough to consider laying six points with them in this game.

And the Bears feel a lot like the Rams did a week ago, with legitimacy questions surrounding their record still largely unanswered at this point in my view.

Taking the points with Chicago could work out with the idea that it is a lot of points to give a 5-1 SU team, but when you question how “real” that 5-1 SU record is, that +6 point spread attached to their name generally looks like it is where it probably should be.

If anything, I do expect the Rams to find a way to win this game, so teasing them down or putting L.A. in a ML parlay or something like that would be the only thing I'd consider here.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 26

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at LAR 08:15 PM

CHI +6.5

O 44.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/26/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/25/2020 9-12-1 43.18% -2100 Detail
10/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/19/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/18/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........85-96-4.......46.96%.....107.00

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack
Six interesting NFL spreads for the coming week:
— Atlanta @ Carolina (-2.5)
— Indianapolis (-3) @ Detroit
— Minnesota @ Green Bay (-6.5)
— New England @ Buffalo (-3.5)
— Tennessee (-5.5) @ Cincinnati
— Las Vegas @ Cleveland (-2.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 225,580
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“We speak all the time about playing for one another, protecting one another. It definitely was not the response you would expect.”
Dallas coach Mike McCarthy, talking about how none of the Cowboys confronted the Washington player who knocked QB Andy Dalton out of Sunday’s game

Tuesday’s quiz
Oakland/LA/Las Vegas Raiders haven’t won a road playoff game since 1980; where did they get their last road playoff win?

Monday’s quiz
Only two head coaches (one active, one retired) have won a Rose Bowl and a Super Bowl; Pete Carroll and Dick Vermeil.

Sunday’s quiz
Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers played college football at NC State; Wilson played three years for the Wolfpack, then transferred to Wisconsin for his last year.


*********************


Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) NFL switched the Seattle-Arizona game to Sunday night because the Raiders had COVID issues last week, so that game was somewhat in doubt— it turned out to be a lucky break. Seahawk-Cardinal game was first one in at least 70 years where both QB’s threw for 300+ yards, ran for 50+ yards; fun game to watch.

Seattle coach Pete Carroll, the youngest-acting 69-year old in America, had his knee scoped October 13, during the Seahawks’ bye week.

12) Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert had a 31-yard run Sunday, longest run by a Chargers QB since Mark Malone’s 36-yard run in 1988.

Malone was a great athlete; he was a QB who played some WR for the Steelers, and in 1990, he caught a 90-yard TD pass from Terry Bradshaw, in a game against Seattle.

11) Indiana Hoosiers are ranked #19 in one college football poll this week, the highest they’ve been ranked nationally since November 8, 1993.

Hoosiers play Ohio State in a few weeks; they’re 2-42-1 all-time against the Buckeyes.

10) When an NFL team changes punters, like the Steelers did last week, it creates another problem, in that the punter is almost always also the holder for kicks, so if you bring in a new punter, the kicker has to work with him.

There was a time when I was a kid, where mostly backup QB’s held for kicks, or defensive backs did. When Tom Dempsey made the first 63-yard FG in NFL history, his holder was Joe Scarpati, a DB. Rams used to have DB Nolan Cromwell hold for kicks, Dolphins used to have a DB named Karl Noonan do the holding.

Now it has been decided that it is just easier to have the punters hold, since they can work a lot in practice with the kicker. Makes it harder to have a good fake FG play, though.

9) LSU lost 32 players, three assistant coaches from their national champion football team last year; that’s a huge turnover, and now their new QB is hurt. Everyone has to scramble this year, adjusting on the fly. In the long run, it’ll help coaches be better coaches, as long as they don’t get fired first.

8) It is a little eerie when I’m surfing the Interweb, looking at stuff I might like to buy, and a half-hour or so later, ads for that stuff starts showing up in margins of sites I’m looking at. It is like we’re being monitored all the time, trying to scrape every last nickel out of us.

7) Re-runs of the great TV show The West Wing popped up on TV last week, first time in a long time I’ve seen them. The West Wing ran on NBC from 1999-2006; great cast- Martin Sheen, Alan Alda, Jimmy Smits, Alison Janney, Rob Lowe.

6) How much you think Chris Rock got paid for these commercials he is doing for IPhone 12? Has to be a pretty penny.

5) A reader from California contributed this knowledge:

In the late 1200’s, a set of legal statutes enacted by King Edward I were recorded on a series of scrolls, known as the Ragman Rolls.

These records were so lengthy that their name came to be used as a byword for any long, serious process- and eventually, became the word “rigamarole”

4) Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz had a big game in the Badgers’ season opener Friday, completing 20-21 passes for 248 yards in an easy win over Illinois, but then he tested positive for COVID, so now Wisconsin has that problem to deal with.

3) Best wishes to Washington coach Ron Rivera, who had his last cancer treatment Monday. Hopefully he’ll be healthy now and his life can get back to normal.

2) Big game this week; Ravens-Steelers. Baltimore is 7-2-2 ATS in last eleven games of this divisional rivalry.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cardinals (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Seahawks, 37-34 (OT)
49ers (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 33-6

The largest favorites to cover

Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 39-29
Chiefs (-7) at Broncos, 43-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans battle certainly lived up to the hype. It was an AFC battle of unbeatens, and at first it looked like it was going to be a blowout, Pittsburgh style. The Steelers fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they held a 24-7 advantage at the break. They tacked on a 30-yard Chris Boswell field goal early in the third quarter to make it 27-7, but that's when the Steelers bogged down on offense and were unable to produce anymore offense.

The Titans made a furious comeback. WR A.J. Brown struck 50 seconds after Boswell's field goal for a 73-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 27-14. A field goal from Stephen Gostkowski with 2:55 left in the third from 51 yards out made it 27-17 after 45 minutes. Over (51) bettors looked to be in good shape heading into the fourth quarter, and Titans (+1, ML +105) side bettors were perking up as well. With 10:13 to go in regulation, Derrick Henry punched one in from 1-yard out to make it 27-24. However, much to the dismay of over bettors, there was no more scoring in the remainder of the game. Gostkowski misfired on a 45-yard field goal attempt with 19 seconds remaining, which would have inched the total over the line. In addition, moneyline bettors and side bettors for the Titans must've felt like they were losing twice. A trip to overtime could have potentially changed the day.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons game was a memorable one, and not many people would've expected that going in. It was 14-13 after three quarters, and while it was close, it wasn't terribly exciting. Then the fourth quarter took place.

If you're a Falcons (-1) side bettor, you're absolutely sick about this result. The Lions ended up winning 23-22 with a touchdown with zeroes on the clock, stunning Atlanta. However, that would be bad enough on a normal day under normal circumstances, but this situation should have never come to be.

With 1:04 remaining in regulation, the Falcons picked up a key first down, positioning themselves for a chip-shot, game-winning field goal, which would have made it 17-16. The Lions were out of timeouts, so they allowed Todd Gurley to score from 10 yards out. He remembered at the last second that he wasn't supposed to score, but couldn't stop his momentum and broke the plane. That made it 20-16, and they tacked on a two-point conversion to go ahead by six. However, if they would have just taken a knee, they could have run the clock down and left no time after the field goal. Matthew Stafford and company took advantage.

The Lions drove the field, tying it with no time left on a strike from Stafford to T.J. Hockenson from 11 yards out. All that was needed was a Matt Prater extra point, and he stuck it, giving Detroit a miraculous 23-22 victory.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the San Francisco 49ers-New England Patriots (44.5) game, followed by the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team (45) contests.

The Patriots were never able to get untracked, as the 49ers fired out to a 23-3 lead at halftime, and they never looked back. Cam Newton was mistake-prone, and the New England offense could only produce two field goals. The 49ers picked up the 33-6 road victory, and 'over' bettors were a little disappointed with just three points in the fourth quarter.

In the Cowboys game, QB Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury, so seventh-round draft pick QB Ben DiNucci was thrust into action. The Cowboys offense was dumbed down even more, and the second half resembled a preseason game for the Cowboys. Sadly, they're still only a half-game back of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field on the slate for Week 8. Anyway, the Cowboys mustered just three points, and the Washington offense posted a total of 22 points, as the 'under' easily cashed.

The highest number on the board was Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (56) battle. This NFC West showdown didn't disappoint. The teams combined for 71 points, and only the third quarter saw fewer than 17 points. QBs Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show for the national audience, and the total was the first over of the season for the Cardinals against five under results. Arizona entered the day as the only NFL team without an over.

In the two primetime games, the over and under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams still pending.

So far this season the under is 13-9 (59.1%) across 22 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 8

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Falcons keep finding new ways to lose. They have blown fourth-quarter leads against the Cowboys, Bears and Lions, and could easily be 4-3 instead of 1-6. That's how close the margin of error is in the NFL. They get a rematch with the Panthers on Thursday. They fell 23-16 at home against Carolina, losing outright as 2.5-point favorites in a game which Julio Jones missed due to injury. The under has cashed in three of the past four outings for Atlanta, including that first meeting with the Panthers. Carolina enters the Week 7 game at New Orleans with a 4-0 under streak before hitting the over against the Saints. Carolina covered, too, and they're now 4-1 ATS in their past five overall.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Chiefs opened as 21-point favorites against the Jets in the 'Le'Veon Bell Bowl'. Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, we've had just five teams favored by 21 or more points. Last season the Miami Dolphins went to Dallas as 22-point underdogs, and the Cowboys covered the number, 31-6. However, since the start of the 2003 campaign, favorites of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. New York heads into this one just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road, 1-5 ATS in the past six as an underdog and 5-17-1 ATS in the past 23 on a grass surface. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the pat four against losing teams, and they're 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 at home. They're also 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 as a favorite, too. The game has since moved down to 20.5, so early bettors are actually...gulp...trusting the Jets?

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The unbeaten Steelers put their unblemished record on the line against the Ravens in a battle for AFC North supremacy. Not only are the Steelers 6-0 SU, but they have covered four in a row, and five of six overall. Baltimore will be coming off a bye, so they'll be well rested and any injured players will have gotten over their early-season bumps and bruises. While the Ravens enter on a three-game winning streak, and they're 5-1 SU, Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS across the past four. The Ravens swept the Steelers last season, winning 26-23 in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 5, while topping the Steelers 28-10 in the regular-season finale. Pittsburgh did win in Baltimore as recently as Nov. 4, 2018.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Buccaneers travel to meet the Giants in a Monday Night battle. It's QB Tom Brady against his Super Bowl nemesis, but these G-Men aren't the same ones he faced for all the marbles. And he is wearing new threads now, too. Still, you know that will be the storyline, as the TV people need something to put lipstick on this pig. Tampa rolled over Las Vegas on the road, winning 45-20 as 3.5-point favorites, the second consecutive blowout win. Just last week they polished off the Green Bay Packers by a 38-10 score. The Bucs offense has posted 31, 28, 38, 19, 38 and 45 in the past six outings, as Brady now looks comfortable, and the Patriots are probably wishing him back right about now.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds Week 8: Opening lines, line movement
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are coming off a bye as they host the division rival Steelers in Week 8. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Baltimore -6 and moved to -5.5 late Sunday evening.

NFL Week 7 is almost behind us, with NFL Week 8 odds on the betting board and already seeing movement. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens do battle in the AFC North, and the San Francisco 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West clash.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 8 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 8 odds

These are the current NFL Week 8 odds, as of October 26.



Teams on bye: Washington Football Team, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals

Falcons at Panthers odds
Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
The bottom two in the NFC South get an early jump on Week 8 in the Thursday night game. Carolina opened -3 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Colts at Lions odds
Opening line
Colts +2.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
Detroit scored a touchdown on the final play Sunday to steal a 23-22 victory at Atlanta, the Lions' third win in their last four games. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is coming off its bye week. The Colts opened as 2.5-point road chalk, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Vikings at Packers odds
Opening line
Packers -7.5, Over/Under 55

Why the line moved
Minnesota is coming off a much-needed bye, with a 1-5 record after providing Atlanta its only win of the season in Week 6. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay rebounded from a Tampa Bay beatdown by topping Houston 35-20 on the road Sunday. The SuperBook opened the Packers -7.5, and that line ticked to -7 Sunday night.

Patriots at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills -3.5, Over/Under 44

Why the line moved
New England has a combined 18 points over its last two games, both home losses, including Sunday's 33-6 blasting at the hands of San Francisco. So although Buffalo was no great shakes in an 18-10 road win over the hapless New York Jets, The SuperBook opened the Bills -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 Sunday night.

"There were a number of voices in the room that wanted to open it higher," Murray said Sunday night. "The Patriots are a mess right now, coming off back-to-back home losses against the Broncos and 49ers. The Bills aren’t great by any means, but they are the class of the division and could take a stranglehold on the AFC East with a win here."

Titans at Bengals odds
Opening line
Bengals +3.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Tennessee made a nice comeback that fell just short against Pittsburgh on Sunday, the Titans' first loss of the year. Cincinnati scored late to take the lead at home against Cleveland, but gave up a TD in the waning seconds to lose 37-34. The Titans opened -3.5 at The SuperBook and ticked to -4 Sunday night.

Raiders at Browns odds
Opening line
Browns -3, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Cleveland eked out a final-seconds 37-34 victory at Cincinnati on Sunday, but lost star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to a knee injury, possibly for the season. Still, The SuperBook opened the Browns -3 against Las Vegas, which got outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter of a 45-20 loss to visiting Tampa Bay.

"This feels like the kind of game where the Raiders surprise everyone and go on the road and scratch out a win," Murray said Sunday night. "Their loss today was closer than the final score indicated, and the Browns (likely) lost Odell Beckham Jr. for the year. Tough spot for Cleveland, off that great win in Cincinnati."

Jets at Chiefs odds
Opening line
-21.5, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
The Jets are the last winless team in the NFL this season, at 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS), though they finally covered Sunday in an 18-10 loss to Buffalo as 10-point home underdogs. Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) and ripped host Denver 43-16 in the snow Sunday. So this game has a monster spread, the largest of this NFL season.

"We opened Chiefs -21.5 and were bet down to -20.5," Murray said. "I know everyone will want to talk about this game, but it’s really a pretty simple one. How much will the Chiefs care? Sure, they could win by more than this spread, but will they even bother to? Will they play Patrick Mahomes in the second half if they are up by 21 at halftime?

"I don’t know why they would. A big number like this will scare a lot of people off. They’ll look for somewhere else to invest their dollars."

Rams at Dolphins odds
Opening line
Dolphins +3.5, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
Los Angeles still has Week 7 work to do in the Monday nighter against visiting Chicago, while Miami is coming off a bye. The Rams opened 3.5-point road favorites, with no line movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Saints at Bears odds
Opening line
Bears +2, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
New Orleans hung on to edge visiting Carolina 27-24 Sunday, while Chicago is in the Week 7 Monday nighter at the Los Angeles Rams.

"We moved from Saints -2 to -2.5 quickly," Murray said. "This line may move off Monday night’s Bears-Rams game. The Saints continue to underwhelm. They’re just barely getting by week to week, even when they run into mediocre opposition."

49ers at Seahawks odds
Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under 54

Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened this NFC West clash at Seahawks -3.5, then the game came off the board once Seattle kicked off its Week 7 Sunday night game at Arizona. The game will go back up Monday morning.

"The 49ers crushed the Rams and Patriots on back-to-back weekends, and their power rating is starting to creep up toward where it was preseason," Murray said. "They could be a force later in the year, if they can stay relatively healthy."

Cowboys at Eagles odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
As if Dallas didn't have enough injury issues, most notably losing quarterback Dak Prescott (ankle) for the season, now backup Andy Dalton's status is uncertain. Dalton suffered a concussion in the third quarter of an embarrassing 25-3 loss at Washington.

Murray said The SuperBook kept this matchup off the board Sunday night, waiting for clarity on who the Cowboys will have under center.

Buccaneers at Giants odds
Opening line
Giants +10, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay is atop the NFC South at 5-2 (4-3 ATS), while New York is at the bottom of the NFC East at 1-6 (4-3 ATS). So The SuperBook opened the Bucs 10-point favorites in the Week 8 Monday night game, with no early line movement.

Chargers at Broncos odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Denver got throttled at home 43-16 by Kansas City on Sunday, while Los Angeles claimed a 39-29 home win over Jacksonville. The SuperBook figured it was a coin toss and opened at pick, and the Chargers moved to -1.5 by late Sunday evening.

Steelers at Ravens odds
Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under 48

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU and a stout 5-1 ATS, as well, while Baltimore (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) has only a loss to Kansas City. The Ravens are coming off a bye and playing at home in this 1 p.m. ET Sunday clash.

"We opened the Ravens up at -6 in what really should be the Sunday Night Football game next week," Murray said, noting that the line dipped a notch to Ravens -5.5. "This is a great matchup, and we get it again on Thanksgiving night. It’s also a great handle game. The Ravens will get a ton of support on the point spread and in moneyline parlays, but I also expect there to be a lot of takers on the Steelers. They are undefeated and have a huge following."