The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack
Major league leaders in runs scored:

46— Fernando Tatis, SD
43— Dansby Swanson, Atl
39— Mike Trout, LAA
38— Freeman Atl, TAnderson CWS, TTurner Wash
37— Manny Machado, SD
35— Story Col, Abreu CWS, Yastrzemski SF, Conforto NYM, Hoskins Phil


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 193,482
Please wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“It’s not real baseball, but it’s fine for this year, and I hope we never do it again.”
Clayton Kershaw, talking about the new extra inning rules

Saturday’s quiz
LA Clippers started out as the Buffalo Braves; they had Bob McAdoo, Jim McMillian, Ernie DiGregorio, some good players- they went 49-33 in 1974-75 under Jack Ramsay, who two years later won the NBA title coaching Portland.

Friday’s quiz
In the 1976 movie All the President’s Men, Robert Redford played Bob Woodward.

Thursday’s quiz
William Henry Harrison was President for only 31 days, before he died of pneumonia.


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Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Like everything else in 2020, the first real Saturday of college football was odd, capped off by a Coastal Carolina-Kansas game that kicked off at 9pm local time in Lawrence, followed by a 1am ET Korean baseball game. Fun for the whole family.

I’m not a scientist, but I’m pretty sure playing football in this environment isn’t a great idea, especially when the players do not get paid, but college sports is big business, and if you don’t believe that, well Oklahoma charged $55 or so on pay-per-view for their opener against I-AA juggernaut Missouri State. Sooners won 48-0; thrilling.

12) If the presidents/AD’s in the Big X knew what was going to happen on the field Saturday, they might’ve thought a quarantine wasn’t such a bad idea.

Coastal Carolina 38, Kansas 23— Second year in row the Chanticleers upset Kansas in Lawrence; this game was 28-0 until just before halftime.

11) Texas Tech 35, Houston Baptist 33— Houston Baptist is I-AA, so this is kind of like a loss for Tech, except it isn’t officially a loss. I mean, Tech was a 40-point favorite and won by 2.

10) Louisiana 31, Iowa State 14— Ragin’ Cajuns’ DB’s dominated the Iowa State receivers; it helped that the refs didn’t seem interested in throwing any flags for defensive holding or PI. Iowa State was a 13-point favorite.

Louisiana missed two easy field goals, but ran a punt back for a TD and also ran a kickoff back for a TD. Saturday looked like it was a very rough day for placekickers, especially young ones.

9) Arkansas State (+14.5) 35, Kansas State 31— Arkansas State’s coach is Blake Anderson; he deserves some joy in his life- his wife passed away just before last season started, and then he lost his dad this offseason. Guy is a good coach who could be moving up soon.

8) Game of the Day: Tex-San Antonio 51, Texas State 48 OT— Down 41-35, Texas State ran a punt back 91 yards for a TD with 1:13 left, but they missed the PAT, then missed a short FG in overtime, and the Roadrunners escaped with a win in Jeff Traylor’s debut as USTA’s coach.

Texas State played without its starting QB, who sat out with COVID-related issues.

7) Saturday’s football upsets:
— Louisiana (+13) 31, Iowa State 14
— Arkansas State (+14.5) 35, Kansas State 31
— Georgia Tech (+13) 16, Florida State 13
— Coastal Carolina (+6) 38, Kansas 23

6) Kansas State (8-1) won the SouthPoint’s prop bet by scoring the first touchdown of the day; the favorites were North Carolina (3-1), Appalachian State (7-2).

5) Some NFL guys had big paydays Saturday; Saints’ RB Alvin Kamara, Vikings’ RB Dalvin Cook and Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp all got contract extensions.

4) Oakland A’s got some very bad news; 3B Matt Chapman will have hip surgery, is out for the season. Thats a big loss- they somehow acquired Jake Lamb from Arizona right before I typed this. They must pay Arizona under the table to cut him, then they signed Lamb up when no one else claimed him.

3) Arizona/Red Sox are first two teams to clinch their under bets in season win total wagering.

2) Lakers 119, Rockets 96— Lakers win series 4-1; you get the feeling Mike D’Antoni will be the scapegoat for Houston’s 2nd-round exit. Now the Lakers hope Denver can force a Game 7 against the Clippers tonight, just to tire both teams out.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
AL Central- Chicago, Minnesota
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Cleveland, New York

NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

15 days left in the season, and the Marlins are still a playoff team.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 1 WEATHER TO WATCH

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Rain is expected throughout Sunday morning in Buffalo, with a chance of showers and winds up to 20 mph in the afternoon, which could play a role in this 1 p.m. ET start. However, oddsmakers already projected this game to be a less-than-exhilarating offensive display, witht the total at 39.5 points, the lowest of all Week 1 games.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are predicted, with a 60 percent chance of rain and winds up to 15 mph during the day. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET. But there’s been no impact on the total, stuck at 45 at The SuperBook.

Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers: Early in the week, rain was predicted for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET kickoff, and the total dipped from 47.5 to 46.5 on Monday at The SuperBook. However, Saturday's forecast shows just a 10 percent chance of precipitation, and the total rebounded to 48.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: The forecast in Cincy calls for mostly cloudy conditions and scattered thunderstorms in the morning, but this matchup doesn’t kick off until 4:05 p.m. ET. Still, the total dropped from 44 to 41.5 at The SuperBook.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants: The forecast for the first Monday night game initially called for a 40 percent chance of showers. It's now down to a 10 percent chance of precipitation, with breezes of 10 to 15 mph.

Get all the gametime conditions with our NFL Weather Report.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 1 INJURIES TO WATCH

Denver Broncos: Normally, it takes an injury to a starting quarterback, or at least a superstar running back or wide receiver, to move a line 2.5 points. Bettors found out Tuesday night that Broncos stud linebacker Von Miller is worth that much, too. Miller suffered an apparent freak injury to an ankle tendon at the end of Tuesday's practice, and it's possible he's out for the season. Said Eric Osterman, oddsmaker and manager at The SuperBook at Westgate: "We moved the Week 1 line from pick to Titans -2.5." And that's after the line had already moved from Broncos -3 to pick, with much of that shift occuring in the past week, for the second game in a Monday night doubleheader. On Saturday, Broncos star wideout Courtland Sutton (shoulder) was listed as questionable, and The SuperBook moved to -3.

Chicago Bears: Star linebacker Khalil Mack is questionable for Week 1 with a knee issue, as is running back David Montgomery and versatile wideout Cordarrelle Patterson. New defensive end Robert Quinn is doubtful after missing practice with an ankle injury. Chicago moved from +3 to +2.5 Friday night with money on the Bears, but this line could come back to a field goal by Sunday.

Detroit Lions: Detroit could be low on receiving targets, with WR Danny Amendola (questionable) and Kenny Golladay (doubtful) nursing injuries. The total for the Week 1 opener versus Chicago opened at 44.5 in the spring and is down to 42.5 entering the weekend.

Philadelphia Eagles: Oddsmakers are closely watching running back Miles Sanders (hamstring) and right tackle Lane Johnson (lower-body injury), among others. Sanders is now probable to play, but Johnson remains questionable. "The Eagles seem to be a little banged up, which has moved the line a little bit in that game. We are at Eagles -5.5 right now, down from the opening number of -6," said Eric Osterman, manager and oddsmaker at The SuperBook at Westgate.

Los Angeles Chargers: Cluster injuries can have a big impact on the outcome, and L.A. could miss two veteran linemen for Week 1, with center Mike Pouncey (questionable) and tackle Bryan Bulaga (doubtful) on the injury report versus Cincinnati. Receiver Mike Williams is a game-time decision due to a shoulder injury. The Chargers are 3-point road favorites Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals: Wideout A.J. Green (hamstring) is expected to be fully cleared to play Sunday vs. the Chargers. There was no impact on the line, which remained Bengals +3.5 at The SuperBook. However, the Bengals defense will be without tackle Geno Atkins and safety Shawn Williams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Standout receiver Mike Evans is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury for Tampa Bay's trip to New Orleans in Week 1. The Bucs have a new-look offense with QB Tom Brady under center. Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point underdog versus the Saints on Sunday, and while Evans is a dangerous deep threat, his worth to the spread is not as great as past seasons due to the additional weapons on the Buccaneers' depth chart and the diminished arm strength of Brady.

Dallas Cowboys: Dallas on Monday put right tackle La’el Collins (hip) and linebacker Sean Lee (sports hernia) on injured reserve, meaning those two are out the next three weeks minimum. However, there was no impact on the line at The SuperBook, with the Cowboys still 3-point road favorites against the Rams.

Cleveland Browns: Center JC Tretter, who had minor surgery for a knee issue in mid-August, returned to practice Monday. The Browns actually closed in a bit Monday, from +8 to +7.5 at The SuperBook for Sunday’s road game against the Ravens.

San Francisco 49ers: The defending NFC champs could be thin at wide receiver, with Deebo Samuel out for Week 1 and rookie target Brandon Aiyuk listed as questionable with a tender hamstring. Another player to keep an eye on is running back Tevin Coleman, who sat out practice on Friday due to health concerns around the poor air quality in the Bay Area. The Niners are giving a touchdown to the visiting Cardinals on Sunday.

Find the latest injury news for every game with our NFL Injury Report.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 1 PROS VS JOES

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants: PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said the total in this game is pitting the sharps against the squares, though surprisingly it's not in the fashion you'd think. "Sharps are on the Over, and the public is on the Under." The total opened 48.5 and is down to 46.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: "The Bucs and Saints is definitely one," Osterman said of sharp vs. public play at The SuperBook. "The line is holding steady at Saints -3.5, even though we are getting a ton of parlay money on the Bucs," Osterman said, noting sharp play on New Orleans.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: "The Vikings recently moved to -3 (even) from -2.5, even though we are taking some good public money on the Packers," Osterman said, pointing to sharp money on Minnesota.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL WEEK 1 PROP BETTING CARD

Lamar Jackson Over 220.5 passing yards (-120)
Joe Burrow Over 15.5 yards rushing (-120)
Buffalo Bills Over 2.5 touchdowns (-121)
Dallas Goedert Over 33.5 receiving yards (-120) and Over 3.5 receptions (-113)
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Baker Mayfield Over 245.5 passing yards (-115)
T.J. Hockenson Over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
Indianapolis to score every quarter — YES (+162)
Dwayne Haskins Over 11.5 rushing yards (-135)
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Marlon Mack Over 54.5 rushing yards (-122)
Josh Jacobs Over 13.5 receiving yards (-119)
Tyler Lockett Over 67.5 receiving yards (-120)
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Team to score the longest touchdown - Kansas City (-160)
Le’Veon Bell Under 55.5 rushing yards (-116)
Todd Gurley Under 83.5 total yards (-115)
Ryan Tannehill Over 230.5 passing yards (-115)

[StarDust Bum]

THE BEST NFL BETS AGAINST THE SPREAD IN HOME OPENERS

No preseason and muzzled media coverage at training camp makes NFL Week 1 betting a bit like flying on a trapeze without a net.

And then there’s the issue of having no fans or limited attendance. Sports betting lore tells us home field is worth a field goal to the point spread but does that hold up in 2020?

To make sense of these confusing times, we go to the past to see which teams could provide a little extra NFL betting value when betting their early home stands.

These are the best NFL bets in home openers since 2006.

ATLANTA FALCONS: 12-2 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
The Falcons moved into the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in 2017 and carried with them an impressive record against the spread in home openers, going 3-0 ATS in those contests the past three seasons. Before then, Atlanta was 9-2 ATS in its first game in front of the Georgia Dome faithful going back to 2006.

The Falcons have scored an average of 28.3 points (the irony is not lost on us) in those games while giving up just 21.2 points against, for a comfy winning margin of a touchdown. Atlanta hosts Seattle in Week 1 as a 1-point home underdog and – after some flip-flopping – will not have fans in attendance.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: 10-3-1 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Not a big surprise here. Lambeau is one of those home fields that could be worth more than the customary field goal to the spread. Green Bay did fail to cover in its home opener with Chicago two years ago – a wild comeback from 20-0 down to the Bears – but has been all that and a block of cheese in recent seasons, going 4-1 ATS in home debuts since 2015.

Over the past 14 seasons, the Packers own an average 25-20 edge in home openers but will have to wait until Week 2 to improve on that metric. Green Bay is in Minnesota in Week 1 but hosts Detroit as a 7-point favorite at an empty Lambeau Field on September 20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 10-4 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Another no-brainer and a home field absolutely worth more than three points to the point spread. CenturyLink Field is one of the most disruptive venues in the NFL, with deafening crowd noise and soggy Seattle weather plaguing visiting teams. However, the infamous 12th Man is locked out for at least the first three games of 2020.

As mentioned above, the Seahawks are in Atlanta for Week 1 but host new-look New England on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, giving 3.5 points to the Patriots. Now, before you blindly throw you shekels down on Seattle, know that the Seahawks are just 1-3 ATS in home openers the past four seasons, including squeaking out a 21-20 win over Cincinnati as 9.5-point chalk in 2019’s home opener.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: 9-5 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Fans or no fans, you aren’t getting any discounts on the Ravens this season. Baltimore is an 8.5-point favorite hosting Cleveland in Week 1, looking to cover for the fourth time in the past five home openers. The Ravens didn’t come through for the Maryland fanbase last season, knocking off Arizona 23-17 as 13-point home chalk in Week 2. That spread was massively inflated on the heels of the Ravens’ 59-10 drubbing at Miami the game before.

What’s most impressive about Baltimore’s ATS prowess in home openers is the fact that the team has faced an average spread of -6.7 in those 14 games and still managed to crank out a 64-percent ATS winning clip. The Ravens own an average final score of 26-13 over those home debuts, which looks promising considering the large Week 1 spread versus the Browns.

DENVER BRONCOS: 7-4-3 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Pulling the trigger on the Broncos in home openers is one of my annual NFL wagers and one of the best betting trends with teeth. The above record doesn’t tell the full story and unfortunately, those pushes have taken some of the “wow” out of this trend, which is hitting at 64 percent since 2006.

However, if we go back even further, Denver’s dominance in home openers is straight-up bonkers. Since 2000, the Broncos are 18-2 SU and 12-4-4 ATS (75%) in those Mile High debuts. One of the likely reasons for this success is the high-altitude impact on visiting teams that aren’t in full game shape during the opening weeks of the schedule. The Broncos are 1.5-point home favorites against Tennessee for a fanless Monday Night Football meeting in Week 1.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -7.0
U 47.0
+500 +500

CHI at DET 01:00 PM
DET -2.5
U 42.5
+500 +500

IND at JAC 01:00 PM
IND -7.0
U 44.0
+500 +500

GB at MIN 01:00 PM
GB +1.5
O 45.0
+500 +500

SEA at ATL 01:00 PM
SEA +1.0
U 49.5
+500 +500

LV at CAR 01:00 PM
LV -3.0
U 48.0
+500 +500

NYJ at BUF 01:00 PM
NYJ +6.5
U 39.5
+500 +500

PHI at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +5.5
U 41.5
+500 +500

MIA at NE 01:00 PM
MIA +7.5
U 41.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES:


LAC at CIN 04:05 PM
CIN +3.0
O 41.5
+500 +500

ARI at SF 04:25 PM
ARI +7.0
U 48.0
+500 +500

TB at NO 04:25 PM
NO -3.5
U 47.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT LATE GAME:

DAL at LAR 08:20 PM
DAL -2.0
O 52.0
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals......13-14-1.........48.14%.....-11.00

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Most popular picks this week in the Westgate SuperContest:
344— Buffalo +6.5- W
337— LA Rams +3- W
304— Atlanta +2.5- L
303— Tennessee -2.5
280— Arizona +6.5- W
243— Pittsburgh -6

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 193,482
Please wear a mask when you go out.


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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Seahawks 38, Atlanta 25:
— Four trips to red zone, four TD’s for Seattle.
— Last three years, Seahawks are 14-9-2 ATS on the road.
— Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten games vs Atlanta.

— Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards in a losing cause.
— Atlanta gained 506 yards but was -2 (0-2) in turnovers.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 6-10-2 vs spread at home.

Buffalo 27, Jets 17
— Buffalo had a 19-yard edge in field position, very big.
— Jets are 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Gang Green is 4-7-2 ATS in AFC East road games.

— Buffalo threw the ball 26 times in first half; surprising.
— Bills won seven of last ten home openers (9-5 ATS in last 14)
— Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers as a home favorite.

Bears 27, Detroit 23
— Detroit led 23-6 after three quarters.
— Last four drives for Chicago: 22 plays, 155 yards, 21 points.
— Chicago won last five series games, winning last three visits to the Motor City.

— Guy on Lions dropped a pretty easy pass in end zone with 0:06 left.
— Last two years, Detroit is 7-10 ATS at home.
— Lions are 9-23-1 under Patricia; they were 36-28 under Caldwell, his predecessor.

Packers 43, Minnesota 34
— Packers scored five TD’s on nine possessions.
— Green Bay had a 14-yard advantage in field position.
— Over is 12-3 in Green Bay’s last 15 road openers

— Pack ran 76 plays for 522 yards; Vikings ran 49 plays.
— Vikings had 8 plays of 20+ yards; 7 of them came on 1st down.
— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is now 26-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.

New England 21, Dolphins 11
— Fitzpatrick threw 3 INT’s, including one in end zone with 1:28 when a TD would’ve at least covered the spread.
— Since 2014, Miami is 16-26 ATS as road underdogs
— Miami lost 11 of its last 12 visits to Foxboro.

— Newton threw for 155 yards, ran 15 times for 75 yards.
— Since 2015, New England is 25-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— NE won 17 of its last 19 home openers (10-7-2 ATS)

Washington 27, Eagles 17
— Eagles led 17-0 with 2:00 left in first half.
— Philly’s last 11 drives: 42 plays, 100 yards, 0 points, 3 turnovers.
— Washington had a 15-yard edge in field position.

— Washington’s points were all scored on drives that started in Philly territory.
— Ron Rivera is Washington’s coach; he had a chemo treatment during the week, took an IV at halftime. Tough freakin’ guy.
— As a head coach, Rivera is 13-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Raiders 34, Charlotte 30
— Jacobs carried ball 25 times for 93 yards, three TD’s
— Three of four Las Vegas TD drives were 75+ yards.
— Raiders covered five of their last six road openers.

— McCaffrey ran for 96 yards, but caught only three passes.
— Both teams converted over half their 3rd down plays.
— Since 2016, Panthers are 14-18-1 ATS at home.

Jacksonville 27, Colts 20
— Indy outgained Jags 445-241, but was -2 in turnovers.
— Colts lost their last five trips to Jacksonville.
— Indy lost nine of its last 11 road openers, six of last seven season openers.

— Minshew completed 19-20 passes for 173 yards, three TD’s.
— Jacksonville covered 10 of last 15 AFC South home games.
— Jaguars last five home openers went over the total.

Baltimore 38, Browns 6
— Cleveland scored only one TD and missed the PAT after.
— Since 2013, Cleveland is 10-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2003, Browns, are 6-10-2 ATS in road openers.

— Ravens had a 23-yard advantage in starting field position.
— Baltimore won its last five Week 1 games, by combined score of 177-26.
— Ravens won 14 of last 16 home openers (11-5 ATS).

Chargers 16, Cincinnati 13
— Bengals’ game-winning TD with 0:06 left was nullified by offensive pass interference call.
— Last three years, Chargers are 7-3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road openers.

— Bengals averaged 4.4 yards/pass attempt; their only TD drive was 44 yards.
— Last two years, Bengals are 5-10-2 ATS at home.
— Cincy is 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.

New Orleans 34, Buccaneers 23
— Buccaneers turned ball over three times; Brady threw a pick-6.
— Arians is 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Tampa Bay won four of its last five road openers.

— Saints scored the only defensive TD of the week so far.
— Since 2014, New Orleans is 16-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Saints had a 24-yard edge in starting field position.

Cardinals 24, San Francisco 20
— WR Hopkins caught 14 passes for 151 yards; why did Houston trade HIM?
— Cardinals are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Arizona ran ball for 180 yards, converted 7-14 on third down.
— Redbirds won five of their last six visits here.

— 49ers are 7-16-2 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
— Niners covered twice in last ten NFC West home games.
— Six of 49ers’ last seven home openers stayed under the total
— Five of last eight series games were decided by 4 or fewer points.

Rams 20, Cowboys 17
— Dallas converted only 3-12 third down plays.
— Prescott averaged only 5.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Cowboys had only one play of 20+ yards.

— Rams held Dallas to a field goal in second half.
— Under McVay, Rams are 15-8 SU at home.
— Rams won/covered their last six home openers.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds Week 2: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks notched a 38-25 victory at Atlanta in Week 1. The SuperBook then opened Seattle -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 against visiting New England in Week 2.

NFL Week 1 is almost in the books, with NFL Week 2 odds posted and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups, the New England Patriots travel to face the Seattle Seahawks, and the Las Vegas Raiders open their brand-new stadium – albeit with no fans – against the New Orleans Saints in the Monday night game.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NFL Week 2 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 2 odds

These are the current NFL Week 2 odds, as of September 13.



Bengals at Browns

Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Browns -6.5, down from a look-ahead number (last week) of -7.5, and we are now at -6," SuperBook executive director John Murray said Sunday night. "Cleveland didn't look good (at Baltimore), and there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to perform in the next few weeks. I don't know what we did to deserve this gem in prime time in Week 2." The last part of that comment was dripping with sarcasm, to be sure.


Rams at Eagles

Opening line
Eagles -2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Murray said there was no early movement on this game, which was pulled off the board once the Cowboys-Rams game began Sunday night. It will go back up Monday morning.
"Philadelphia is a very banged-up team with a decimated offensive line," Murray said, pointing specifically to right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle). "It's hard to recommend a play in this game without knowing the status of Johnson."


Panthers at Buccaneers odds

Opening line
Buccaneers -8, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Broncos at Steelers

Opening line
Steelers -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Falcons at Cowboys

Opening line
Cowboys -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line was only up Sunday until the Rams-Cowboys game kicked off, and there was no movement at The SuperBook. The line will go back up Monday morning.


49ers at Jets

Opening line
Jets +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Bills at Dolphins

Opening line
Dolphins +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Vikings at Colts

Opening line
Colts -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Lions at Packers

Opening line
Packers -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Packers were a big public play in Week 1 and proved deserving in a 43-34 road victory over Minnesota. But there was no line movement on the Lions-Packers game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Giants at Bears

Opening line
Bears -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Jaguars at Titans

Opening line
Titans -10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Washington at Cardinals

Opening line
Cardinals -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Although Arizona posted an impressive Week 1 win at defending NFC champion San Francisco, there was no line movement on this Week 2 game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Ravens at Texans

Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened -6 and moved quickly to -6.5. No point in waiting," Murray said of a quick move at The SuperBook. "The public will be all over the Ravens in this game, after watching both of these teams play in Week 1. The Texans may be the biggest need of the week for sportsbooks next Sunday in the early games."


Chiefs at Chargers

Opening line
Chiefs -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Kansas City looked good in a 34-20 Thursday night home win over Houston. Los Angeles didn't look that good in barely beating host Cincinnati 16-13 Sunday. So it was no surprise Sunday night to see the Chiefs quickly move to -7.5 for this AFC West clash.


Patriots at Seahawks

Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4," Murray said of a Sunday night uptick at The SuperBook. "Seattle looked very potent offensively (at Atlanta). Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson looked like an MVP. This will be a huge test for Cam Newton. The public will be on the Seahawks, and the books will be rooting for another 'dog on Sunday night."


Saints at Raiders

Opening line
+4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -4.5 and moved quickly to -5.5," Murray said. "It pains me to talk about this game, thinking about how great it could’ve been for this city. What an event that would’ve been at the new stadium. It will still be a huge handle game, with the public all over the Saints on the road."

[StarDust Bum]

NFL betting tips for Week 2: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Cam Newton looked great in his debut as the New England Patriots QB, including 75 yards rushing and two touchdowns in a Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins.

I’m a big fan of Week 2. The NFL betting markets overreact to one week of results and there are a lot of extra points hanging around for the picking.

The best NFL betting strategy is to spot those overreactions early and plan your attack: do you grab the number now or wait it out and bet later? It all comes down to your opinion on the spread or total.

If you’re scouring the NFL Week 2 odds, these are our NFL betting tips for the best games to bet now and later.

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs Dallas Cowboys: Bet Now

The freshest game in the minds of NFL bettors when the Week 2 odds hit the board is the Sunday Night Football result. And this past Sunday night, we saw the Dallas Cowboys stacked offense flounder for only 17 points and come up short with the game on the line in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

The Week 2 spread opened Dallas as high as -7 hosting the Atlanta Falcons (and there are still some sevens out there as of Monday morning) but has started to drop to -6.5, with early play on the Falcons. The Cowboys’ loss in L.A. as well as injuries to key contributors on both sides of the ball is influencing that action.

Atlanta, on the other hand, fell to Seattle 38-25 in Week 1 but still posted 450 yards through the air — a stat that should make Dallas’ shaky pass defense very nervous. If you like the road underdog in this 1 p.m. ET matchup, get the Falcons now at +7 or +6.5 before it dips to six.


Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins (+5.5): Bet Later

This spread opened as low as Buffalo Bills -5, with books hanging a dead number and allowing early action to dictate the move to the key number. That initial money pushed the spread to Buffalo -5.5 and will likely go to -6 very quickly.

The Bills’ 2020 debut wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great either. They raced out to a 21-3 halftime lead over the New York Jets before getting outscored 14-6 in the final 30 minutes, but the offense looks like a capable complement to an already-stingy stop unit.

The Miami Dolphins fell in Foxborough to the new-look New England Patriots but weren’t blown away by any means. Miami was held back by three interceptions from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tua time?) and made New England bettors sweat until the final five minutes. If you’re getting down on the Dolphins, wait and see if this gets to +6 or higher.


New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Over 44): Bet Now

The Seattle Seahawks just walked into Hot-lanta and outscored the Falcons on their fast home track, which is not an easy feat. Seattle posted 38 points with Russell Wilson airing it out for 322 yards to a bevy of receiving options while keeping the defense guessing with a versatile rushing corps.

Cam Newton was the engine behind the Patriots in Week 1, giving New England fans 75 yards and two scores on the ground to go along with a steady day dropping back. Granted, those results came against Miami and the Seahawks defense is a tougher task, but we expect the Pats offense to continue to grow and gain traction.

This Over/Under opened at 44 points and outside of some tinkering with the juice, it’s staying there as of Monday morning. However, with the "Yes we Cam" headlines flooding the NFL news wires and the Seahawks scoring 38 points (as well as no 12th Man advantage in CenturyLink in Week 2), I expect money to show on the Over. Grab the Over 44 points now before this total steps off the key number.


Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans (Over 52.5): Bet Later

This Over/Under was as big as 54.5 points when select books posted lookahead lines for Week 2 back in the spring. The true Week 2 opener went up at 53 points Sunday night, and immediate money took the Under and slimmed the total to 52.5.

The Houston Texans' offense looked lost for the majority of its season opener versus Kansas City last Thursday, and it was obvious Deshaun Watson missed having DeAndre Hopkins as a failsafe. But, the Texans have had that mini-bye to tighten the bolts and should show better with the football at home in Week 2.

The Baltimore Ravens showed zero signs of rust in its Week 1 walkthrough versus Cleveland. The Ravens scored 38 points and limited the Browns to only six, which was a combo of solid defense from Baltimore and Cleveland trying out a new system for the first time.

Plenty of books have 52.5 Over/Under on the board and have already discounted the juice on the Over to slow the early play on the Under. If you predict plenty of offense for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, be patient and see how low it will go.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TEN at DEN 10:20 PM
DEN +3.0
O 41.0
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals......14-15-1.........48.27%.....-11.50