Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Over/under win totals for the NBA this season:

57.5– Bucks

54.5— Rockets, 76ers, Jazz, Clippers

52.5— Nuggets

50.5— Lakers

49.5— Celtics

48.5— Warriors


Quote of the Day
“Seriously guys, that guy is our quarterback when he clears the protocol, and it’s as simple as that. Appreciate the efforts of Duck (Devlin) and so forth, but as soon as [Rudolph] is ready to go, he’s ready to go.”
Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin, talking about his QB’s

Thursday’s quiz
When was the last time the NY Knicks were in the NBA Finals?

Wednesday’s quiz
Nationals’ manager Dave Martinez won a World Series ring as bench coach for the Chicago Cubs.

Tuesday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football at California

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Thursday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) First off today, a little news…….at some point soon, probably early next week but maybe as early as tomorrow, I‘m going to be going off the grid for a week or so.

Turns out I have a detached retina in my right eye, and I’m going to have surgery to get it fixed. The doctor basically told me I have to lay on the couch and DO NOTHING for a week after the operation until the eye heals, so I’ll be on the shelf for a little while, but hopefully I’ll be back for the start of college basketball season.

12) Wound up in four different doctors’ offices Wednesday; not good- the last one was a pre-exam for the operation where they give you an EKG and test your urine (for what, I have no idea, but mine passed)

Two thoughts here…….
— Peeing in a little plastic cup is an underrated skill (seriously, tough to do it well)
— My EKG, to quote the doctor, was “Perfect” so I have that going for me.

11) NFL stuff:
— Michell Trubisky is expected to be back at QB for the Bears this week.
— Titans are starting Ryan Tannehill at QB this week against the Chargers.
— Steelers are going back to Mason Rudolph at QB for this week’s game.

10) Titans’ deposed starting QB Marcus Mariota is now 26-35-2 ATS as an NFL starter.

9) Win for me; flew home during a Presidential debate, so I missed it. Also missed couple of playoff games, but followed along on Twitter on the airplane. Politicians? Not so much.

8) 22-year NBA veteran Vince Carter holds the league record with 245 different teammates; four of his current Atlanta teammates weren’t even alive when Carter made his NBA debut in 1998.

7) In the second half of their last two games, Kansas City has run only 35 plays; their opponents have run 79 plays, and that is a problem. Chiefs will be missing five starters in Denver tonight.

6) Was reading an article about a bookmaker who said the biggest thing most books need is volume, because no matter what, books generally pocket around $6 for every $100 wagered.

5) St Louis Cardinals had a rough week in the NLCS, but their pitching coach Mike Maddox got two hole-in-ones in the same round last week in Washington. That doesn’t happen very much.

4) Under Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys are 35-17-1 ATS in the 2nd half of games when the Cowboys are behind at the half. Pete Carroll, Bill O’Brien are #2, #3 on that list.

3) Redskins’ QB Alex Smith broke his leg LY but still hopes to play in the NFL again; since he broke the leg, Smith has had 17 surgeries on it. Seventeen.

2) FWIW, thru six weeks of play, Arizona Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends. Fantasy owners who have the Giants’ Evan Engram should enjoy that.

1) Angels signed Joe Maddon to a 3-year contract as manager; Maddon spent his first 31 years in pro baseball working in the Angels’ organization.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Chiefs at Broncos
October 16, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Chiefs (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost consecutive home games for the first time since 2015 after falling to the Texans last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, 31-24 as 3 ½-point favorites. Kansas City jumped out to a commanding 17-3 lead after the first quarter, one week after being held to 13 points against Indianapolis. However, the Texans responded by outscoring the Chiefs, 20-0 in the second quarter to lead at halftime, 23-17.

Kansas City put up a total of seven points after the first quarter, as Deshaun Watson put Houston in front for good with a one-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. The Texans picked up 35 first downs in the win, while Houston rushed for 192 yards, including 116 from Carlos Hyde, who also scored his third touchdown of the season after getting traded by Kansas City in the preseason.

Patrick Mahomes was limited to 41 yards passing in the second half and finished with 273 yards through the air, his lowest total all season. The Chiefs’ quarterback still managed to throw three touchdowns passes, including two to Tyreek Hill, but Mahomes was intercepted for the first time in six games this season. The Chiefs’ rushing game is a huge concern as they compiled 36 yards in the loss to the Colts and picked up 53 yards against Houston.

The Broncos (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) started 0-4, but have won two straight games against the Chargers and Titans. (Side note: Kansas City and Los Angeles are both riding two-game losing streaks, while Oakland and Denver, who were expected to be non-factors in the AFC West, have each won two in a row). Denver blanked Tennessee, 16-0 for its first home victory of the season following a pair of heartbreaking losses in the final seconds to Chicago and Jacksonville on late field goals.

Denver pitched its first shutout since a 23-0 win over the Jets in Week 14 of the 2017 season, as the Broncos held the Titans to 204 yards and forced three Tennessee turnovers. The Broncos’ offense wasn’t stellar as they booted three field goals (including two from 48 and 53 yards), while the lone touchdown came from running back Phillip Lindsay.

Joe Flacco threw for only 177 yards and was intercepted once for Denver, who picked up its first home win since Week 12 against Pittsburgh last season. The Broncos have slumped to a 2-7 record in their last nine games at Empower Field at Mile High since edging the Raiders in Week 2 of 2018.

ROAD WARRIORS

The Chiefs have excelled on the road since Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback to start the 2018 season. Kansas City owns an 8-3 record on the highway with the three losses coming to the Patriots, Rams, and Seahawks last season. The Chiefs allowed 43, 54, and 38 points in those losses, as Andy Reid’s team is 8-0 when giving up 37 points or less away from Arrowhead since 2018. The Chiefs failed to cash in their last opportunity as a road favorite at Detroit in Week 4 as 7 ½-point chalk in a 34-30 win.

HOW THE WEST WAS WON

Through six games this season, the Chiefs have faced only one AFC West opponent. Kansas City took care of Oakland in Week 2 on the road, as the Chiefs will next square off with a division foe after Thursday’s affair coming up in Week 11 at Los Angeles. The Chiefs have owned the division by putting together a 10-1 record in the past 11 contests against the AFC West. The last road loss for the Chiefs within the division came on a Thursday night at Oakland in 2017 in a last-second 31-30 setback as three-point favorites.

The Broncos are 1-1 within the AFC West this season, although this is the first home game against a division opponent. Denver owns an 0-4 ATS mark and 1-3 SU record in its past four home divisional games since 2017, but three of those games have decided by three points each.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs, came back in 2015 at Arrowhead Stadium in an epic rally. Kansas City jumped out to a 14-0 lead before Peyton Manning led Denver on a pair of touchdown drives to even the game at 14-14. The Chiefs held a 24-17 advantage in the final minute before the Broncos tied the game at 24-24 on a Manning touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders. Nine seconds later, the Broncos recovered a Chiefs’ fumble and took it in for the game-winning score in a stunning 31-24 triumph as three-point underdogs.

Since that Thursday night debacle, the Chiefs have won seven consecutive meetings with the Broncos, including four straight wins in Denver. Kansas City has swept Denver in each of the past three seasons, while coming off a four-point road win and a seven-point home victory in 2018. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 27-23 comeback win at Denver after Kansas City trailed, 23-13 in the fourth quarter. Kansas City scored two touchdowns in the final 6:27 of regulation, as Mahomes threw for 304 yards and a touchdown.

The Chiefs covered six straight games in the series before the Broncos cashed at Arrowhead Stadium last October in a 30-23 setback as 8 ½-point underdogs. Denver picked up the cover on a field goal in the final two minutes after trailing by 16 points to start the fourth quarter. Mahomes tossed four touchdowns in that victory, but the Broncos rushed for 189 yards, including 95 from Lindsay.

TOTAL TALK

Last Thursday’s outcome between the Giants and Patriots pushed the ‘over’ streak to three in a row in the midweek spot. Oddsmakers sent out an opening number of 50 between Denver and Kansas City this week and the early money has moved the number down to 49 as of Wednesday evening.

Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his total thoughts and the opening matchup of Week 7.

“The ‘under’ has been a solid investment (19-10, 65%) in divisional games this season and that includes a 3-1 mark in Week 6. I agree with the first action and I believe that if Denver wants to win this game, it’s going to have to control the clock and keep the Kansas City offense off the field. Houston executed that game-plan perfectly last week and it converted touchdowns. The Broncos offense isn’t on the same level as the Texan, but breaking 20 points against the defense of the Chiefs seems possible,” said David.

“Even though the ‘under’ went 2-0 in last year’s regular season meetings, the two outcomes saw combined scores of 50 and 53 posted. Kansas City averaged 28. 5 PPG in those games and that’s been a common theme during its current seven-game winning streak over Denver. The Chiefs offense certainly isn’t clicking on all cylinders this season, largely due to injuries on both the outside and in the trenches. The Broncos defense plays better at home and it could easily be 3-0 at Mile High instead of 2-1, with both losses coming by two points.”

David added, “Including last week’s 16-0 shutout win over the Titans, Denver has watched the ‘under’ go 9-1 in its last 10 games at home. Bettors leaning low will likely take that trend into consideration but we’d be remiss not to mention the 11-2 ‘over’ run for the Chiefs on the road. Last season, Kansas City dominated Oakland 35-3 in Wek 17 and I mention that game because the victory was preceded by back-to-back losses. Despite key injuries and playing on the road, I believe the Chiefs defense will step up against a pedestrian Broncos attack and avoid their third straight loss here. My lean would be to the Broncos Team Total Under (23 ½).”

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson weighs in on this matchup, “Kansas City’s defense remains highly vulnerable particularly on the ground but Lindsay and Royce Freeman haven’t had big breakthrough games yet for Denver with the team averaging 116 rushing yards per game on just 4.3 yards per carry.”

As far as bringing in the former Ravens’ quarterback, Nelson notes Flacco has turned into a game manager, “The acquisition of Flacco was mostly panned by NFL observers, but he has been a competent option for the offense even with an interception in now five straight games. Flacco has had a lighter workload in the wins the past two weeks with 14 and 18 completions and against a Chiefs defense that is 30th against the run it will be expected that the Broncos will keep the ball on the ground often.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Over 318 ½ (-110)
Under 318 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Over 2 (-130)
Under 2 (+110)

Total Receiving Yards – Travis Kelce (KC)
Over 74 ½ (-110)
Under 74 ½ (-110)

Will Travis Kelce (KC) score a touchdown?
Yes +135
No -155

Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill (KC)
Over 75 ½ (-110)
Under 75 ½ (-110)

Total Completions – Joe Flacco (DEN)
Over 20 ½ (-110)
Under 20 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Joe Flacco (DEN)
Over 1 ½ (+145)
Under 1 ½ (-170)

Total Rushing Yards – Phillip Lindsay (DEN)
Over 70 ½ (-110)
Under 70 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT
Kansas City opened up as 4 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that number has dipped to -3 at most spots. The total has also gone down from the opener of 50 down to 48, which is the lowest number for the Chiefs this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Chiefs missing 5 starters at Denver
October 16, 2019
By The Associated Press

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins will miss his second consecutive game with a hamstring injury when Kansas City visits the Denver Broncos on Thursday night trying to snap a two-game skid.

Watkins was a limited participant in practice this week but was ruled out Wednesday.

The Chiefs are down several starters as they face a division rival on short rest. Defensive back Kendall Fuller was ruled out after breaking his thumb in last week's loss to Houston, defensive tackle Chris Jones and left tackle Eric Fisher have core muscle injuries, and left guard Andrew Wylie is out with an ankle injury.

Cornerback Bashaud Breeland was listed as questionable with a non-injury designation. If he's unable to play, the Chiefs would have Charvarius Ward, Mo Claiborne and rookie Rashad Fenton at cornerback.

The Chiefs did get some positive news in that middle linebacker Anthony Hitchens would be back on the field. The on-field play-caller missed last week's game with a groin injury.

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Broncos can get back into West race
October 16, 2019
By The Associated Press

DENVER (AP) Keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sideline has worked wonders for Kansas City's opponents, providing a blueprint for the Broncos on Thursday night as they seek their first win over the Chiefs in four years.

''Every game has its own personality,'' cautioned Broncos coach Vic Fangio .

Every team also builds its own reputation, and the Chiefs (4-2) have a dud of a defense to go along with that firecracker offense. Exploit that and the Broncos (2-4) can jump right back into the AFC West race after their September stumble.

Over the past four weeks, the Chiefs, who have lost two in a row after a 4-0 start, have allowed an average of 190 rushing yards and 4.97 yards a carry as their opponents piled up eight TD runs.

''We have to fix it,'' Chiefs coach Andy Reid said.

The Chiefs have allowed a 100-yard rusher in four consecutive weeks, and it would have been five if not for the Raiders' Josh Jacobs' hydration problems - he finished with 99 yards on just 12 carries.

''I mean, look, there's just one area we don't feel great about and it's stopping the run,'' said first-year coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who has transitioned the Chiefs from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense. ''We don't want to be looking at the number of run plays, the yardage they're putting up with runs - somehow, some way we have to figure it out. Until we stop it, we're going to see it.''

Up next are the Broncos, winners of two straight and the NFL's only team that sports two running backs each with at least 400 scrimmage yards. But if Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay, who have accounted for 973 yards so far, are relishing the matchup, they're masking it pretty good.

''Every game in the NFL is tough,'' Lindsay said.

Freeman looked at the rushing totals the Chiefs have allowed the past four weeks: Ravens (203), Lions (186), Colts (180) and Texans (192), and shrugged.

''Every team goes out there and they make their adjustments week to week,'' Freeman said. ''You've got to assume they're going to go out there and try to switch things up. Plus, we have a short week, so you never know what to expect.''

Just look at Denver's defense , which found a quick fix to its run game problems. After allowing Leonard Fournette to go wild as the Jaguars piled up 269 yards on them, the Broncos allowed just 35 yards to the Chargers and 39 to the Titans.

''It's the NFL. Guys change things every week,'' Freeman said. ''Our defense has done a great job flipping the script.''

It's time for Denver's offense to do likewise, he added.

The Broncos are averaging just 17.6 points. Even during their two-game skid, the Chiefs averaged 18.5 points despite losing the time of possession by an average of 38 minutes to 22 minutes.

Other subplots as the Broncos try to snap a seven-game skid and beat Kansas City for the first time since Sept. 17, 2015:

HILL, YES

Tyreek Hill had two TD grabs last week in his return from a broken collarbone. The Chiefs were without Sammy Watkins because of a hamstring injury, and they'll be missing him again against Denver, where DB Kendall Fuller (thumb), DT Chris Jones (core muscle), LT Eric Fisher (core muscle) and LG Andrew Wylie (ankle) are all out.

SANDERS GOOD TO GO

Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders returns from a sore knee that knocked him out last week. Sanders has caught just two passes for 9 yards the past two weeks. Sanders' injury in his third in a year (ACL, ankle).

OLD-TIMERS' TIME

Reid and Fangio are the same age - 61. Reid is in his 28th NFL season, 21 as a head coach and is seeking his 200th regular-season win. Fangio is in his 33rd NFL season but first as a head coach. ''He's one of the special defensive minds of the game,'' said Reid, who knows all about Fangio's reputation.

ROAD WARRIOR

Mahomes is 2-0 in Denver, winning his first career start on Dec. 31, 2017, when he left a 24-10 lead to No. 3 QB Tyler Bray but returned to salvage a 27-24 win with a last-minute field-goal drive. Last year, he led the Chiefs to a 27-23 win with more fourth-quarter heroics and his famous left-handed throw to avoid a sack.

SURPRISING SACKMASTER

Von Miller isn't the Broncos' sacks leader. It's backup DE DeMarcus Walker, who has three sacks after getting just one in each of his first two seasons. His first came against Mahomes when both were rookies.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

KC at DEN 08:20 PM

DEN +3.0

U 49.0

[StarDust Bum]

Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes injures right knee against Broncos
October 17, 2019
By The Associated Press

DENVER (AP) Struggling to straighten his right knee, Patrick Mahomes tossed his helmet to the side and covered his face with both hands.

The Kansas City quarterback was hurt on a sneak Thursday night against Denver.

Mahomes picked up a first down on fourth-and-short in the second quarter. Once the pile began to clear and Mahomes didn't jump up, his teammates immediately checked on him. Seeing his condition, receiver Tyreek Hill put his hands on his helmet in concern - a feeling shared by a legion of Chiefs fans. Mahomes is a big reason why Kansas City was a preseason favorite to reach its second straight AFC championship game.

Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr. showed his respect by coming over and shaking Mahomes' hand.

One of the members of the Kansas City medical team worked on the knee to help straighten it out. A cart was summoned to take him away, but Mahomes instead put an arm around each trainer and made his way off the field. Mahomes, who entered the game with a sore ankle, then slowly made his way into the locker room.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson wrote on his Twitter account: ''Praying for you bro.'' It was a similar sentiment shared by Houston QB Deshaun Watson on social media: ''Praying my bro (at)PatrickMahomes is straight!''

The reigning MVP was 10 of 11 for 76 yards and a 125.8 rating before his injury.

Mahomes has thrown 15 touchdown passes and one interception this season. Last weekend in a loss to Houston, Mahomes recorded his 14th career game with at least three TD passes. That's third-most in team history.

Matt Moore replaced Mahomes. Moore was signed by the Chiefs on Aug. 27 after an injury to Chad Henne.

The 35-year-old Moore didn't play last season. He's thrown 45 TD passes and 36 interceptions in stints with Carolina and Miami.

After playing at Oregon State, Moore entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent with Dallas in 2007.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/17/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00% .............-0.50
10/14/2019.......2-0-0.........100.00%.............+10.00
10/13/2019...11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/10/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%..............-11.00
10/07/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%............+10.00
10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............91-81-1.......... 52.90%............ +9.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/17/2019.............0 - 1...........-5.50..................1 - 0............+5.00............-0.50
10/14/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0............+5.00.............+10.00
10/13/2019.............6 - 5...........+2.50................5 - 6.............-3.00.............-0.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1.............-5.50.............-11.00
10/07/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00............+10.00
10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50...............6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................39 - 41............-25.00.............43 - 33 ..........+38.50............+13.50

[Udog]

NFL Week 7 cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara, even more important during Drew Brees' absence, won't play Sunday at Chicago. The Saints are now 4-point underdogs in a key NFC clash at Soldier Field.

NFL Week 7 has a dozen Sunday games, followed by a Monday nighter in the shadow of the Big Apple. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

INJURY IMPACT

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The most noteworthy injury news emerging from Friday was that running back Alvin Kamara (knee, ankle) will not play Sunday at Chicago. “We moved a full point on this one, and dropped the total by 2 points,” Wilkinson said. The Saints opened +4, quickly tightened to +3, then rose to +4 by Friday afternoon, mostly on the Kamara update. The total moved from 39 early in the week to 37 Friday.

CHICAGO BEARS: Quarterback Mitch Trubisky missed Chicago’s Week 5 loss to Oakland, in a game played in London. But after a Week 6 bye, there’s a chance Trubisky returns Sunday from a separated shoulder/slight torn labrum. He’s listed as questionable at home against New Orleans. “It looks like he’s gonna play now,” Wilkinson said, noting that was part of the calculus – along with the Saints’ Kamara being out – in going from Bears -3.5 to -4 Friday.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams (toe) is out for the second straight game, as he won’t play at home Sunday against Oakland. “Green Bay picked up running back Ryan Grant recently, so we didn’t adjust the line based off the Adams injury. However, the line has dropped 2 full points this week, to Packers -4.5.” Adams’ absence didn’t impact the total, either, as it remained at 47, where it’s been since Tuesday, after opening at 46.5.

DALLAS COWBOYS: Wideout Amari Cooper (ankle, quad) is questionable for the Sunday night showdown against the visiting Eagles. But that didn’t move the needle Friday at The SuperBook, where the line remained Dallas -2.5, with a total of 49.

NEW YORK GIANTS: Running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) missed three games, but he wasn’t even on Friday’s injury report, so he is fully expected to play Sunday against the visiting Cardinals. “We moved from Giants -2.5 to -3 on the Barkley news.”

LOS ANGELES RAMS: Todd Gurley (quad) is another running back set to return, after missing last week’s home loss to the 49ers. “No move for Gurley, because we already expected it.” The Rams are 3-point favorites at Atlanta, with a total of 55.


Weather Watch

BALTIMORE AT SEATTLE: There’s a 66 percent chance of rain for this Sunday showdown. “We always keep rain in mind when there’s a game in Seattle, so this total is lower than it would be somewhere else,” Wilkinson said of a number that opened at 49.5, peaked at 50.5, then dropped 2 points to 48.5. “It would be more than 50 on a dry field.”

SAN FRANCISCO AT WASHINGTON: The D.C. area is highly likely to see Sunday showers, with an 87 percent chance of rain at FedEx Field. “The total dropped 2.5 points to 40.5 due to the weather.” The spread remained at 49ers -9.5. “It possibly could’ve been 10 in good weather.”

ARIZONA AT NEW YORK GIANTS: There’s a 51 percent chance of rain Sunday at MetLife Stadium, but The SuperBook made no adjustments. The Giants are at -3, with a total of 50.5.


Pros vs. Joes

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: The SuperBook opened this game at pick and moved to Colts -1.5. “The pros are on the Colts, but the Joes are betting the Texans. The Texans beat the Chiefs, so the public thinks they’re great, but that was an injured Patrick Mahomes. The sharps think the Colts at home are the better team.”

NEW ENGLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: This line bounced between 9.5 and 10 a few times within the first two hours of opening on Sunday, then settled at Patriots -9.5 all week. “Pros are betting the Jets, but the Joes are always betting the Patriots. Sam Darnold has the Jets’ offense moving, and they are looking to upset their division rival at home.”


Reverse Line Moves

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: Wilkinson said Pros vs. Joes contests often lead to reverse line moves, as well. That’s the case here, with more money on the Texans, but respected cash on the Colts leading The SuperBook to move the line from pick to Indy -1.5.

NEW ENGLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: It’s the same story here. Per usual, there’s more money on the Patriots, but respected money on the Jets at +10 has this line stuck at New England -9.5, rather than increasing beyond the key number.

NEW ORLEANS AT CHICAGO: Wilkinson said there’s a case to be made that this matchup falls into the category of reverse line move. “The straight bets are pretty even, but we do have more parlay money on the Saints, and the line has gone the opposite direction.”

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


DOWN JONES: STOCK SLIPPING

The Arizona Cardinals rank third-last in passing yards allowed through six weeks but will be getting some help Sunday in the form of eight-time All-Pro corner Patrick Peterson, who is finished serving his six-game suspension.

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has seen his passing yards decreased in each of his first four NFL starts as perhaps teams are adjusting to the rookie and the injuries to key skilled players take their toll.

Either way, his stock is pointing in the wrong direction. To make things worse, Jones’ No.1 receiver Sterling Shepard will likely be out after dealing with his second concussion this year and is still in the league’s protocol. Look for the Giants to work the middle of the field with Golden Tate and Evan Engram as the outside lacks talent and will see Peterson in coverage.

Engram will get his yards as the Cardinals are allowing a league-worst 99.7 yards to TEs this year. But after that, we don’t see Jones doing much damage. With Arizona being the No. 1 matchup for fantasy QBs, we may be getting an inflated number for Jones’ passing yards total. We are playing the Under on 255.5 yards.


GET OVER IT

Yesterday, we wrote about backing the Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Goff in a bounce-back spot and today we’re staying on the Rams and Atlanta Falcons game as we look at two teams that are giving up over 620 yards passing combined over the last three weeks.

With the week’s highest total at a robust 54.5 points, both teams will have to keep their punters on the sideline for this game to hit 55. The Rams defense has been doing its best to keep opponents’ drives alive, allowing third-down conversions at a 47.5-percent rate and are tied for second-to-last in penalties allowed. The Falcons have been even worse, ranked last in the league in opponents’ third-down conversion rate at 57 percent.

Pushing this lean for us is the fact that both teams have been scoring touchdowns lately when inside the 20-yard line. The Birds are getting six points on two-thirds of their red-zone trips over the last three weeks while the Rams sit at 64 percent. We are backing the Over 54.5.


THE COLEMAN RULE

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 thanks in part to a defense that ranks first in passing yards per game, tops in rushing TDs allowed, and second in yards per game, passer rating against, first-downs per game, and points per game. This defense has also been helped by a Niners’ rushing attack averaging 180 yards game and leads the league in rushes per game.

Kyle Shanahan’s running back committee has been a pretty even timeshare in Weeks 1 through 5, but Telvin Coleman played 55 percent of the snaps last week which was the single most snaps played by a 49ers running back this year.

Coleman managed 20 touches in his second game back from injury last week and saw all of San Francisco's red-zone looks, for five carries and one target with a score. That’s great news for Coleman backers as the 49ers are also averaging the second-most rushing TDs per game.

We are taking Coleman’s anytime TD as that 49ers defense and run game will dominate the Washington Redskins, who are probably still celebrating their Week 6 win over the Dolphins.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 7
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Bengals are 11-0 ATS (5.95 ppg) since Dec 14, 2008 as a dog coming off a road game with less than 300 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-6.50 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 on the road coming off a loss when facing a team above .500 on the season.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Texans are 0-7-1 ATS (-5.94 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a win where Deandre Hopkins had at least nine receptions.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Saints are 11-0 OU (17.27 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least seven points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-10 OU (-9.40 ppg) since Nov 12, 2017 in the first 16 weeks of the season playing a team over .500.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 13-0 ATS (+5.88 ppg) at home after a game as a road dog in which they converted at least five third downs.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 7
Joe Williams

We're heading to Sunday Week 7 of the National Football League regular season. Primetime games have been a bummer for 'over' bettors so far this season. The Thursday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos went well under to kick off the new week, too. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went down with a dislocated kneecap and he is supposed to miss several weeks, so keep an eye on the totals of Kansas City games going forward. With veteran backup QB Matt Moore under center, the Chiefs offense won't be nearly as effective.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 6 7-7 8-6 3-9-2
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 43-49 39-52-1 42-46-4

The books were well in the black for a third consecutive week even though the totals were split right down the middle at 7-7. The Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game in England hit the over, which is now 2-0 in the two International Series games this season. We'll get a week break from games in Jolly Ol' England before the Cincinnati Bengals-Los Angeles Rams meet in Wembley Stadium.

Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 7 were stifled as the under went 9-3-2 in the final 30 minutes. Simiar to the overall under (49-43) results on the season, the under holds advantages in both the first-half (52-39-1) and second-half (46-42-4).

Division Bell

We had four more divisional battles in Week 6, and all three of the divisional battles on North American soil hit the 'under', with the only over happening at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium between the Bucs and Panthers in the 26th game played in London since 2007. If you include Thursday's outcome between the Chiefs and Broncos, the under is now 20-10 (67%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 6
Carolins vs. Tampa Bay (London) Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Cincinnati at Baltimore Under (47) Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 17
San Francisco at L.A. Rams Under (50) San Francisco 20, L.A. Rams 7
Detroit at Green Bay (MNF) Under (47) Green Bay 23, Detroit 22

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 7 as of Saturday morning.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: 47 ½ to 43 ½
San Francisco at Washington: 43 to 40
L.A. Rams at Atlanta: 52 ½ to 54 ½
Philadelphia at Dallas: 47 ½ to 49 ½
Baltimore at Seattle: 50 ½ to 49
New Orleans at Chicago: 38 ½ to 37

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 7 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

San Francisco at Washington: Under 92%
L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: Over 89%
New England at N.Y. Jets (MNF): Over 87%
Philadelphia at Dallas (SNF): Over 86%
Arizona at N.Y. Giants: Over 83%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (70 percent) in the Cincinnati-Baltimore matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in L.A. Rams-Atlanta (67 percent) battle on Sunday.

Handicapping Week 7

Week 6 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 1-3 10-19
NFC vs. NFC 2-0 11-8
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 9-6
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 14-15

Other Week 7 Action

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: This game is an interesting one to watch, as the winless Bengals have a slew of injuries in their secondary, including DBs William Jackson III (shoulder) and Dre Kirkpatrick (knee). They might get CB Darqueze Dennard (knee) back from the PUP list, but they still have issues. The Bengals have actually been middle of the road against the pass, but brutal against the run, ranking last in the NFL at 184.5 yards per game. They're allowing 426.0 total yards per game to rank 31st, too. On the flip side, the rank 11th running the ball with 127.5 yards per game. Jacksonville's offense might be able to put up some big points. They have allowed 58 points in their past two road games, both overs, so this is an interesting game to watch.

L.A. Rams at Atlanta: Former NFC West Division rivals meet in Atlanta when the Rams swoop into town to battle the Falcons. The Rams are expected to see CB Jalen Ramsey make his team debut after being acquired this week. He'll be a welcome addition with CB Aqib Talib (ribs) out indefinitely. The Rams rank sixth in the NFL in passing yards (272.5), and the Falcons are 27th in total yards allowed (388.8) and passing yards allowed (271.2), while allowing 31.0 PPG to check in 31st in the NFL. This could be another track meet under the roof.

Oakland at Green Bay: The Raiders hit the road to ball the Packers in an AFC-NFC matchup. The Raiders have hit the 'over' in all three of their games away from the Bay Area, going 2-0 in their two true road games with another over in London in Week 5 last time out. For the Packers, they'll again be without WR Davante Adams (toe), while WRs Geronimo Allison (chest) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle) are considered doubtful. The Pack are likely to have quite a few unheralded and inexperienced receivers going, which might mean more of a ground-based attack. A heavy run game means a better chance of an under.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants: The Cardinals and Giants have a line hovering around 50 for their battle between former NFC East rivals. It could be a high-scoring affair, as the Giants get a huge boost from the return of RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) and TE Evan Engram (knee). As such, the Giants offense could be fairly prolific, especially against a Cardinals defense which ranks 30th in total yards allowed (414.0), 30th in passing yards allowed (281.2) and 26th in rushing yards allowed (132.8). Arizona has scored 22.3 PPG, while allowing 28.5 PPG. Teams from the Pacific Time Zone playing in the Eastern Time Zone this season have posted an over in six of 11 occasions, and the over is 6-3 if you take the Chargers out of the equation (two unders in two games).

L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: A pair of defensive-minded clubs battle in Nashville. The Chargers and Titans have each hit the under in five straight games. Los Angeles ranks seventh in total yards allowed (321.7) and 10th in points allowed (19.7 PPG), while Tennessee ranks eighth in total yards allowed (321.8), sixth in passing yards allowed (217.3) and fifth in points allowed (15.3 PPG). However, they're a very ordinary 15th in rushing yards allowed (104.5). Watch this, as RB Melvin Gordon rushed for a career-high 196 yards against Tennessee in a 2016 meeting. The Titans will give QB Ryan Tannehill his first Tennessee start, as he replaced the ineffective QB Marcus Mariota.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with spreads of nine or more points for Week 7, with one home team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 41 to 44 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half. Two of the games are divisional battles, too.

San Francisco at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET): The 49ers will be playing in their third game in the Eastern Time Zone, splitting the over/under in those games. They scored 31 points in the Week 1 game at Tampa Bay, and 41 in the Week 2 game at Cincinnati, and now they'll face a one-win Redskins side. On the flip side, the Redskins have allowed 31, 31 and 33 in their three home games, hitting the 'over' in two of those outings. As an underdog of nine or more points, the Redskins are allowing 32.5 PPG in two outings, too. One thing to note, however, is that the 49ers have hit the 'under' in each of the two games they have been favored, while hitting the under in four of their five games overall.

Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Dolphins will play in just their second road game of the season, and they hit the 'under' in that lone road trip, falling 31-6 at Dallas in Week 3. The Dolphins scored a season-high 16 points in Week 6, hitting the 'under' for the fourth consecutive game. They have scored 10, 0, 6, 10 and 16 in five games, averaging an NFL-worst 8.4 PPG. The Dolphins turn back to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, looking for a little 'Fitz-magic' against his former team. The Bills are the only team in the NFL yet to see an 'over' result, as the 'under' is a perfect 5-0, including 2-0 vs. AFC East foes. They allowed just 16 points in each of those divisional games.

New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): (See Below)

Under the Lights

Philadelphia at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football under has cashed in all seven games so far this season, including Philly's trip to Atlanta in Week 2, and a 12-10 loss by Dallas in New Orleans in Week 4. The Cowboys have played two divisional games, cashing the 'over' in each. They are averaging 33.0 PPG in those two games, while allowing 19.0 PPG. The Eagles hit the 'over' in their only NFC East tilt so far, a 32-27 win over Washington in Week 1. In their three road games the Eagles have scored 20 or more points in each game while allowing 29.7 PPG, hitting the 'over' in two of the three games.

New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Patriots are heavy favorites on the road for the Monday nighter against the Jets, who looked like a new program in a Week 6 win over Dallas with QB Sam Darnold back under center after missing a few games due to a bout with mononucleosis. These teams met in Week 3 when Luke Falk was the starting QB, and the Jets offense was blanked in New England, with the Jets scoring two defensive touchdowns in the 30-14 loss, a game which went 'over' by one point, and probably should not have. The 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 against AFC East teams, while the under is 11-5 in New York's past 16 inside the division. The under has hit in six of the past seven in this series, and four of the past five in New Jersey.

[Udog]

SNF - Eagles at Cowboys
Matt Blunt

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The first potential 'over' of the year on SNF came up short by the hook last week, as a missed FG by the Chargers early in that game stung, along with the fact it took three quarters for the Chargers to look like they were interested in playing football. But I guess when your home field is actually a soccer stadium, the best way to pay homage to that is to look like a soccer team and put up a big fat zero on the scoreboard for the first 45 minutes of the game like the Chargers did.

This week we get a high stakes division game between the Eagles and Cowboys – the two teams that will likely battle it out for the NFC East crown by season's end – and the winner of this first meeting will get an early leg up with a little more than half the season left.

Both the Eagles and Cowboys come into this prime time spot off of disappointing losses – for very different reasons – as Philly got lit up and blown out by Minnesota last week, while the Cowboys (minus 2/5 of their OL) couldn't beat the lowly Jets in QB Sam Darnold's return. Yet, it's the Dallas loss that's making all the headlines this week because of the overall quality of opponent they lost too, as the annual October/November tradition of the sky is falling in Dallas has arrived in 2019.

HC Jason Garrett is always on the hot seat after a loss or two, talk about QB Dak Prescott being a franchise guy or being worth a big extension is always met with negativity after a loss, and discussion about if the team is actually 'good enough' or who many thought they really were coming into the year dominates mainstream airwaves. Considering this is an annual occurrence for the Dallas Cowboys, it makes you wonder why the people in the great city of Dallas don't walk around wearing helmets every day during football season for how frequently the falling sky above their heads tickles their hair follicles. But nothing is ever as bad (or good) as it seems for teams in the NFL, and with two sides to every story, it's time to dive into this game.

Total Talk

To be quite honest, there isn't much to like about this total at all. Obviously many bettors out there are waiting for the injury report on both sides before diving in, as the Eagles secondary (and defense as a whole) has been ravaged by injuries all year, while concerns about those two lineman on Dallas remain.

But from all reports it sounds like the Eagles secondary will be a bit healthier this week, and those two Dallas O-lineman should be back in action as well. They were active in warm-up vs the Jets last week and were kept out for precautionary reasons – likely because it was a non-conference game vs the Jets and Philly was on deck – so I would venture a guess that they are back in action. That would suggest a lean to the high side of this total – one that's already been bet up to 49 most places after opening at 48.5 – and if forced to make a play on this total that's probably where I'd go.

But I don't know if it's because of all the QB injuries the entire league has dealt with this year, or if the overall caliber of offensive play is just down in 2019, but the 'unders' have been the side in general with totals in 2019, and they still are perfect on SNF. There has been plenty of bad QB play all around, especially under the bright lights of prime time football, and until that changes I'm not looking to back the high side of a total on SNF.

Side Spiel

Speaking of bad QB play, while everyone questions Dak Prescott and his ability to perform at that position at this level, it's funny to me that the entire betting world ignores even giving a speck of criticism to Carson Wentz. Eagles fans will tell you he's Houdini back there in the pocket at times, but his best escape act appears to be avoiding criticism at all cost. Sure, his injury-plagued career is something that does give him the benefit of the doubt in a sense, but his best escape act is always avoiding a bad word said about his play.

Eagles fans will tell you that injuries, poor coaching/play-calling by HC Doug Pederson on offense and DC Jim Schwartz on defense, a poor secondary, poor drafting in terms of lack of depth, and just all-around mistakes by the supporting cast around Wentz is to blame for Philly's struggles in games this year.

And while the injury complaint is legitimate because no NFL team can thrive with injury concerns – especially when the bulk of them come to one position group of the team – I don't understand how Wentz himself gets a free pass in all of it. Can you tell me what Wentz has won at this level? What big games? Any?

Sure, Wentz caught lightning in a bottle with his play in 2017 before injuring his knee, but it's not like the Eagles went through a gauntlet of opponents in those first 13 games that year. The poor drafting/lack of depth wasn't an issue for them then when Nick Foles came in as a replacement, nor was the play-calling and issue on either side of the ball. The Eagles supporting cast was clearly good enough to go on and win a Super Bowl with Foles that year, and all of that was good enough for them in the latter half of 2018 when Wentz went on the shelf again and they nearly got back to the NFC Championship game. Yes, a few faces have come and gone during those two years, but this Eagles core went a combined 10-3 SU when Foles was under center in 2017 and 2018. Where were all the complaints about everything about this Eagles organization other than the QB position then?

In fact, you take away that 'lightning in a bottle' 2017 season for Wentz, the guy comes into this Dallas game this week with a 15-18 SU record in games he's started. You're telling me that his teammates haven't 'played' for him that often? Come on now. Wentz is the Dorian Gray of the NFL – he looks the part at 6'5 with a big arm, but he's hiding a lot of ugliness underneath the surface if you ask me.

Furthermore, we don't have to go too far back in the time machine to think of another NFC East QB who has plenty of comparables in terms of career arc. This guy was drafted 2nd overall like Wentz, the team gave up 4+ high draft picks to move up to that spot to take him, he caught lightning in a bottle in one (and only one) season where he made a Pro Bowl, had said season cut short by an ACL injury, and watched as his replacement took the reigns of that team and parlayed success there – with the same supporting cast and/or coaching staff – into a big contract (there or elsewhere) just like Nick Foles did. Oh and he also took too many unnecessary hits inside and outside of the pocket like Wentz does.

Anyone got the answer?

How about Robert Griffin III.

RG III's 2012 season in Washington was quite similar to what Wentz's 2017 was (minus the team winning the Super Bowl) and everyone knew then and in the subsequent years that RG III was not a viable long-term starting QB option in the NFL. And while the simple eye test would give Wentz a huge leg up over RG III (admittedly Wentz is much better in that he can accurately throw and has the size of the prototypical NFL QB) it's also why I refer to him as Dorian Gray. His best attribute is simply looking the part of a legit NFL QB and nobody sees the ugly truth that's hidden away in the attic. Wentz just isn't all he's cracked up to be, and for whatever reason avoids taking heat for it as the blame game gets pushed towards anyone and everyone else involved with that Eagles team.

You can argue that guys around him don't play for him, but even if we were to take that as truth, that's just as damning on Wentz for his inability to connect with his teammates and be a leader. But nobody ever wants to say that. Philly had to choose him over Foles because of age alone, and now they are saddled with Wentz for big money, who's shown throughout his young career that he's not even consistent at having the best ability any NFL player could have: availability.

So while the entire world may be spending this week ripping Dallas, questioning how legit they are, and not wanting anything to do with them after losing to a bad team like the Jets, I've got no problem pounding them against the number this week. For one, it's a great spot to bounce back, and two, the Eagles are a team that continues to be thought of as a decent to great team (when healthy).

Injuries are their biggest issue right now and there is no denying that, but yes, play-calling in a specific instant, or specific game, can be suspect, but it's not been a major concern for the better part of a few years now. If it was, or if the supporting cast around the Eagles was, Philly wouldn't have had all the late-season success they had the past two years when Foles was at the helm. Let's not forget that it was Foles who suggested “Philly Philly” to HC Doug Pederson in the Super Bowl too.

Final Thoughts

Dallas isn't without it's warts either as the jury's still out on Prescott and rightfully so. But when you've got an offensive line like the one they've got, and a RB like they do, there is plenty for an 'average' QB to lean on to get the job done. The Cowboys are at home – a place where home field advantage for them has grown to league average the past year or two – and went the cautious route last week to make sure they were as healthy as could be for this week's game, even if it meant getting needlessly slandered by the masses for a week.

At 2-4 ATS against the spread this year, and allowing 27 or more points in four of their of six games this year, this Eagles team is one that deserves to continue to be bet against for the foreseeable future in my opinion. And losing in Dallas on Sunday night likely will be the beginning of the end for their chase of a division title in 2019, that is unless the Cowboys start to become a soap opera like they are known to do and let the Eagles back into the hunt.

In Dorian Gray, his true image eventually gets exposed to the world, and until that happens with Wentz and this Eagles team, I'll continue to look to take these short spreads that Philadelphia opponents are getting.

Best Bet: Dallas -2.5

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 7 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Saints, +3.5 (860)

5) Vikings,, -1 (873)

4) Colts, -1 (965)

3) 49ers, -9.5 (989)

2) Rams, -3 (1,073)

1) Giants, -3 (1,076)

2019 record: 19-16-1


Quote of the Day
“We’re going down to Dallas and our guys are going to be ready to play and we’re going to win that football game. And when we do we’re in first place in the NFC East, we control our own destiny, and we’re right where we need to be.”
Eagles’ coach Doug Pederson

Sunday’s quiz
How many NHL franchises are located in Canada?

Saturday’s quiz
Mark Jackson was coach of the Golden State Warriors before Steve Kerr.

Friday’s quiz
Pacers, Nuggets, Spurs, Nets are the four NBA teams that were once in the ABA.

**************************

Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a football Saturday…….

13) Texas 50, Kansas 48— Les Miles is going to build a winner in Lawrence; this was the first game as offensive coordinator for Brent Dearmon, who was a head coach at the NAIA level LY.

Texas kicked a 33-yard FG at the gun to win this game, but good things are ahead for Kansas.

12) Oregon 35, Washington 31— Huskies led 28-14 with 9:00 left in third quarter, but Oregon rallied back for the win, scoring winning TD with 5:10 left. Fun game to watch.

11) Illinois 24, Wisconsin 23— Badgers hadn’t trailed in any game this season until kid from Illinois made a 39-yard FG at the gun. This is the biggest pointspread upset so far this year.

10) Oklahoma 52, West Virginia 14— Austin Kendall is WVU’s quarterback:
— As a freshman in 2016, threw 16 passes as a backup QB for Oklahoma.
— Red-shirted the 2017 season.
— Last year, he threw four passes as a backup QB for the Sooners.

Kendall graduated from Oklahoma in three years; he is working on two Masters’ degrees. When he decided to go to West Virginia, the Sooners tried to block the transfer, because WVU is a big X rival of the Sooners, but they eventually relented.

9) Florida Atlantic coach Lane Kiffin posted a pic on Twitter showing three officials walking on the field, all using seeing eye dogs. Thats going to be an expensive tweet.

8) Florida 38, South Carolina 27— Gators’ QB Trask, who didn’t start for his high school team, threw for 200 yards, four TD’s as Florida improves to 7-1 on a rainy day in Columbia.

7) Upsets of the Week:
— Illinois (+30.5) 24, Wisconsin 23
— Vanderbilt (+21) 21, Missouri 14
— Georgia Tech (+18) 28, Miami 21 (OT)
— Oregon State (+10.5) 21, California 17
— Eastern Michigan (+10) 34, Western Michigan 27
— Baylor (+8) 45, Oklahoma State 27

6) Baylor 45, Oklahoma State 27— Matt Rhule went 28-23 coaching Temple (20-7 the last two years); he is 15-17 at Baylor, but 7-0 this year- the guy can coach.

5) Georgia Tech 28, Miami 21 OT— Yellow Jackets scored a defensive TD, scored on a fake punt and blocked a 25-yard FG near the end of regulation. Hurricanes missed three FG’s in all, all of them 34 yards or shorter.

Miami desperately needs to recruit a kicker, or find a soccer player on campus who can fill the void; they’ve missed six FG’s of 34 or less yards this season, plus two PAT’s.

4) Ohio U 45, Kent State 38— Game was 24-all at half; Golden Flashes (20-1) cashed in at SouthPoint Casino in Las Vegas, scoring the first TD of the day. Yes, you can bet on that.

Ohio U had a great onside kick in this game; their kicker just drilled the ball straight ahead, it hit the Kent State player 1o yards away in the helmet, popped in the air, and #81 on Ohio caught it.

3) Virginia Tech 43, North Carolina 41 OT— Starting in the 5th overtime, teams alternate 2-point conversion tries to decide the winner; I think this was the first time it actually happened.

2) Appalachian State 52, UL-Monroe 7— 6-0 Mountaineers are ranked #24 in country, with a win at North Carolina. Not often a Sun Belt team gets ranked nationally.

1) Louisiana Tech 45, Southern Mississippi 30— Total on this game was 58.5; always helps the over when the opening kickoff gets run back for a TD. Tech is 5-1 vs I-A opponents, averaging 45 ppg.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 7
October 19, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Texans at Colts (-1 ½, 47) – 1:00 PM EST
Houston (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) has taken over the top spot in the AFC South following a pair of high-scoring victories over Atlanta and Kansas City. The Texans rallied past the Chiefs last Sunday, 31-24 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites, highlighted by a 20-0 second quarter to erase an early 14-point deficit. Deshaun Watson juked his way into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter as the Texans improved to 3-0 ATS this season away from NRG Stadium.

The Colts (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) are also coming off an underdog victory at Kansas City in its last game, albeit back in Week 5. Indianapolis is fresh off the bye after stunning the defending AFC West champions as 10 ½-point underdogs, 19-13, while outrushing the Chiefs in that Sunday night triumph, 180-36. The Colts are back at home for the first time since losing in surprising fashion to the upstart Raiders back in Week 4 as Indianapolis has drilled the OVER in both games at Lucas Oil Stadium this season.

This series was dominated by the road team last season as Houston outlasted Indianapolis at Lucas Oil in overtime, 37-34 to give the Texans its first win of 2018. That victory spurred a nine-game winning streak for Houston, which ended at home against Indianapolis in a 24-21 defeat in Week 14 as four-point favorites. The Colts eliminated the Texans in the Wild Card round at NRG Stadium in a 21-7 rout as Indianapolis led 21-0 headed to the fourth quarter.

Best Bet: Colts 23, Texans 20

Ravens at Seahawks (-3, 48) – 4:25 PM EST
The two teams that have not covered since Week 1 both reside in the Beltway as the Redskins and Ravens are currently on 0-5 ATS skids. Baltimore (4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS) sits atop the AFC North after holding off winless Cincinnati last week, 23-17, but the Ravens failed to cash as 10 ½-point favorites. After allowing the Bengals to return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, the Ravens outscored Cincinnati, 23-3 until giving up a late score to prevent a cover.

The Seahawks (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) have jumped out to an impressive start but still sit behind the undefeated 49ers for first place in the NFC West. Seattle has won four games by four points or less, including erasing a 20-6 deficit in last week’s 32-28 triumph at Cleveland to improve to 3-0 SU/ATS away from CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have yet to cover at home this season in three tries, including in one-point wins over the Bengals and Rams. Seattle’s offense has exploded this season by posting 27 points or more in five straight games, as the OVER has hit four times in this stretch.

Baltimore is listed as an underdog for the second time this season after losing at Kansas City in Week 3. In spite of that loss, the Ravens are 3-1 SU/ATS as a ‘dog since Lamar Jackson took over as starting quarterback midway through 2018. The Seahawks own a perfect 3-0 mark against AFC North opponents tonight, while Seattle seeks its first cover as a home favorite since Week 14 last season against Minnesota.

Best Bet: Ravens 24, Seahawks 23

Saints at Bears (-4, 37) – 4:25 PM EST
There was expected concern when Drew Brees suffered a thumb injury in a Week 2 defeat to the Rams and he would be sidelined for six-to-eight weeks. However, the Saints (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) haven’t skipped a beat with their future Hall-of-Famer on the sidelines as veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has led New Orleans to four consecutive victories (and covers). The Saints avoided a letdown last Sunday after back-to-back home wins as New Orleans edged Jacksonville, 13-6 as 2 ½-point underdogs to improve to 9-2 in the last 11 games away from the Superdome.

The Bears (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) return from the bye week following a surprising loss in London to the Raiders back in Week 5. Mitchell Trubisky is expected to play after missing the Oakland game with a shoulder injury, but there has not been a commitment yet from Bears’ head coach Matt Nagy. Chicago has scored only 19 points at home this season in two games at Soldier Field, but the Bears’ defense has yielded just 16 points against the Packers and Vikings. The Bears have allowed 17 points or less in eight of the past 11 home contests since the start of 2018, resulting in seven UNDERS.

The Saints will be without star running back Alvin Kamara with an ankle injury, as former Viking and Raider Latavius Murray is poised to receive a good number of carries on Sunday. New Orleans has won each of the past four meetings with Chicago dating back to 2011, including a 20-12 triumph at the Superdome as 7 ½-point favorites in 2017.

Best Bet: Bears 19, Saints 13

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (1-4 last week, 15-15 this season)
Cardinals +3
Colts -1
Raiders +4 ½
Ravens +3
Bears -3 ½

Chris David (0-5 last week, 11-19 this season)
Bills -17
Bengals +3 ½
Bears -3 ½
Cowboys -2 ½
Jets +9 ½

SURVIVOR PICKS
Kevin Rogers (3-1)
Eliminated – Rams lost to Buccaneers in Week 4

Chris David (6-0)
Used – Seattle, New England, Dallas, L.A. Chargers, Philadelphia, Baltimore

Week 6 Selection - Buffalo

BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 43 ½ - Jaguars at Bengals
Jacksonville’s defense has been up and down to say the least all season as the Jaguars have moved on from star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who was traded to the Rams last week. The Jaguars have allowed 13 points or less in three games, while yielding 24 points or more in three other contests. Jacksonville slowed down New Orleans’ offense in Week 6, but the Jaguars’ offense mustered a pair of field goals in a 13-6 defeat. Cincinnati has struggled all season as evidenced by its 0-6 mark, but the Bengals can’t run the ball, while scoring its last offensive touchdown in the first half back in Week 2 against San Francisco.

TRAP OF THE WEEK
Both Rams and Falcons have struggled of late (actually Atlanta has stumbled all season). The defending NFC champions are riding a three-game skid since a 3-0 start, but are three-point road favorites as they head cross-country to face a 1-5 Atlanta squad. The Falcons have allowed 87 points in the past two losses at Houston and Arizona, but Atlanta has won in its lone opportunity as a home underdog this season against Philadelphia in Week 2. The Rams’ offense totaled 157 yards in last Sunday’s 20-7 home defeat to the 49ers, but L.A. has covered in five of its past seven chances as a road favorite.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE
The Packers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites against the Raiders last Monday at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas. However, Green Bay has dropped to 4 ½-point favorites against an Oakland team coming off the bye week. The Packers edged the Lions on Monday night to improve to 5-1 on the season, while the Raiders are fresh off back-to-back impressive underdog wins over the Colts and Bears.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
Teams that have lost on Monday Night Football this season have not fared well the following week by posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record in 2019. Houston is the only team to win after a Monday night defeat, but the Texans failed to cash in a one-point victory over the Jaguars. The Lions sit in this position on Sunday after their 22-21 setback at Green Bay as Detroit hosts Minnesota. The Lions struggled with the Vikings last season by losing both meetings, while not reaching the end zone in either defeat.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


POINTS TOUGH TO COME BY

The Miami quarterback situation isn't getting better anytime soon. They are switching abck to Ryan Fitzpatrick who now he has to go on the road and face a Bills defense that sits third in DVOA defense and held Tom Brady to his worst performance since 2006. The ‘Fins are 17-point underdogs against a team that is averaging 18 points a game. Maybe their team total of 11.5 is too high.

Buffalo’s Josh Allen has relied on his defense to hide his passing inabilities as he has thrown five interceptions in his last eight quarters of football. Allen’s offense is a bottom-10 unit in yards per drive and is scoring touchdowns in the red zone at an unsustainable rate that is bound to regress.

Get down on the Under 42 as we doubt Miami will reach their team total of 12 and Buffalo won’t be pushing the pace with the lead.


IS THERE A NEXT MAN UP?

Oakland Raiders top wide receiver, Tyrell Williams, has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers and tight and Darren Waller had a mid-week downgrade on Thursday. Even if Waller does suit up, that leaves Trevor Davis, Hunter Renfrow, Keelan Doss, Devon White and Zay Jones. Did you even notice that one of those names is a 56-year-old World Series champion? Neither did we.

Davis, Renfrow and Doss make up 16 percent of Oakland’s entire receiving yards this year. So what is the appropriate response from the Packers defense against such a sad sack of receivers? Stack the box. Green Bay sits in 26th in DVOA rush defense but held the Lions to 2.6 yards per carry last week at home.

With Josh Jacobs’ rush total at 75.5 and the possibility that the Packers make the Raiders abandon the run, we are taking the Under.


KICKING IT IN WASHINGTON

With rain in the forecast and the heavy winds expected at FedEx Field in Washington, we aren’t foreseeing optimal kicking conditions for the 49ers and Washington game Sunday. With both teams averaging just over two field goals a game combined, this is a great spot for us to exploit some kicking markets.

The Under 3.5 field goals is a great play, but at -189, we are going to pass. Instead, we will look at the longest field goal Over/Under prop bet of 45.5 yards.

San Fran kicker Robbie Gould has made just two of his last seven field-goal attempts and missed or got his kicked blocked twice on kicks under 48 yards.

Washington’s leg, Dustin Hopkins, has only attempted four field goals in the last three weeks, making from 21, 21 and 35 but missing at 43.

Go ahead and feel comfortable with the Under 45.5 yards for the longest field goal.


DARRELL AND THE HENDERSONS

Things are getting thin at running back for Sean McVay and the L.A. Rams. No. 2 back Malcolm Brown has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup with Atlanta, leaving the far-from-healthy Todd Gurley and intriguing rookie Darrell Henderson.

Henderson could see his heaviest workload of the year as L.A. may manage Gurley’s reps yet again, especially after missing Week 6. The second-highest-paid RB has seen more than 15 carries just once this year and hasn’t eclipsed 65 yards rushing since Week 1.

The third-round rookie, Henderson, finally saw the field last week playing 32 percent of the snaps behind Brown with Gurley out. Henderson ran for 39 yards on six carries and could be in line for double-digit touches, albeit versus a tough Atlanta Falcons rush defense that leads the league in stuffs.

Henderson’s markets will open closer to kickoff once Brown is officially ruled out and Gurley is ruled active. We will be looking to get Henderson’s rushing total at any number below 50 and hitting the Over, and if his rushing attempt market is available, take the Over on 8.5 and below.


ACTION JACKSON

The Seattle Seahawks allowed Baker Mayfield to rush for 35 yards and a score last week. Mayfield had zero yards rushing coming into that game and the 35 yards were his most since Week 5 of last year. This week versus Lamar Jackson, things will get infinitely more difficult for the Seattle defense and containing the opposing QB.

Jackson cleared his rushing total of 61.5 yards last week in the first half en route to 152 yards on 19 carries. Jackson has amassed 288 yards on the ground over the last three weeks and has his sights on this week’s total of 68.5.

With the Ravens’ only viable receiving threat likely sitting this one out, go get the Over on Jackson’s 68.5-yard total as Lamar will want to show the MVP frontrunner what he’s got.


J-HOW DO YOU DO?

There was a lot of talk about Jordan Howard taking control of the Philadelphia Eagles’ backfield two weeks ago after putting up big numbers in Weeks 4 through 5, but 49 yards on 13 carries against a top-4 DVOA rush defense in Week 6 seems to have killed that momentum. But this may give Howard backers some value as the hype has died down even though he managed 63 percent of the offensive snaps last week — the most snap percentage by any Philly back this year.

Howard will face the Dallas Cowboys’ No. 19 rush DVOA defense in the Sunday nighter. Jerry and ‘Boys have lost three-straight games and over that time have allowed a 4.3 yards per carry and five touchdowns to running backs. Howard will have the best chance to hit paydirt as he has out-touched his teammate, Miles Sanders, 15-to-5 in red-zone touches over the last three weeks.

We like Howard’s anytime TD as well as the Over on his 50.5 rushing yards. For the record, our man J-How is averaging 13 rushes for 59 yards and one score since Week 3.


WINDY CITY PASSING WOES

The bye-week probably didn’t fix any of the Chicago Bears’ passing troubles as only the Jets and Dolphins have fewer yards per pass attempt. Even Andy Dalton and Baker Mayfield have higher QBRs than Mitch Trubisky. But Bears coach Matt Nagy is no dummy and isn’t going to put the team’s chances of winning Sunday versus the New Orleans Saints solely on the arm of Trubisky, especially coming off a Week 4 shoulder injury.

The Bears and Saints game has the lowest total on the board at 38 for a reason — even the Dolphins-Bills game is three points higher. Chicago is a bottom-10 team in pass attempts per game, 31st in yards per completion while Trubisky is 35th in net yards per passing play — sandwiched between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen.

The Saints’ passing defense has also been on a roll of late allowing under 175 passing yards to opposing QBs over the last three weeks. Although they will be without slot corner P.J. Williams, the Saints can still make life difficult for this weak passing group unless Nagy can get creative.

The markets aren’t readily available for Mitch’s props as he is working his way back from the injury but isn’t listed on the injury report as he has practiced in full since Wednesday. We will be waiting for those markets to open and look to take the Under on his passing yards on any total over 205 yards.


BEST VERSUS THE WORST

Here is a breakdown of the best and worst matchups for receivers for this week. Stats per Football Outsider.

BEST WR1

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati (70.5): Boyd will face a Jaguars' secondary surrendering 97.4 yards to opposing WR1s. Cincy’s best receiver has gone over 100 yards in two-of-six games. Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ volatile pass game scares a little here.


WORST WR1

Michael Thomas, New Orleans (80.5): Thomas has been held to Under 80.5 yards just once this year, but he has yet to face the Bears’ secondary who are allowing just 36.9 yards to opposing No. 1s. Teddy Bridgewater may have his toughest task to date. We like the Under.


BEST TE

Evan Engram, New York Giants (83.5): It’s no surprise the Cardinals take the bottom spot for defending opposing tight ends as the Red Birds are giving up nearly 100 yards a game. Engram could have a huge game on Sunday. We wouldn’t call you crazy for hitting the Over trifecta on Engram’s yards and reception totals as well as an anytime TD.


WORST TE

Vernon Davis/Jeremy Sprinkle, Washington (N/A): The books are waiting to see how Davis practices Friday after dealing with a concussion before this line opens. Don’t expect much as the 49ers are averaging 25.4 yards against tight ends. Any bet with the San Fran defense is a good bet, though, in our opinion. Wait till closer to kickoff if you want to fade a Washington TE.


BEST RB

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis (24.5): The Houston Texans have been rolling offensively but have struggled to cover opposing running backs allowing 67 yards (double checked that number) to RBs. This is great value for the pass-catching Hines who has cleared that total in three straight weeks.


WORST RB

Chris Thompson, Washington (N/A): Even if one of the best third-down backs in the game can suit up Sunday, it will be for not as there is no stopping that San Francisco defense. They basically lead the league in every defensive category, and you can add lowest receiving yards to opposing RBs at 24.2 yards per game to the list.


QB PICKS

Cheering for interceptions is a great way to watch football. Here is a list of a few quarterbacks who may turn the ball over on Sunday.

Matthew Stafford (-125): Señor Stafford has only thrown two picks this year (two in Week 2) but divisional rivals the Vikings are a different beast. Minnesota has forced five INTs over six games. In his last four games against the Vikes, Stafford has struggled with just two TDs and one INT.

Deshaun Watson (-125): Mr. Watson is playing out his mind as of late but is coming off a two-pick performance in KC last week. The Texans QB has thrown nearly twice as many INTs when on the road and is facing a Colts defense that has picks in back-to-back games heading into Sunday.

Andy Dalton (-138): We all know that the Bengals are in that group of bad teams loitering at the bottom of the NFL standings. Andy Dalton has thrown five interceptions this year but with the Jaguars’ best corner gone and only forcing one INT in their last three, this is a pass for us, especially with the juice.

Matt Ryan (-107): This is the one we like the most. Ryan is averaging over one interception per game and with a potential shootout versus the Rams, the Falcons’ QB will have ample opportunities to turn it over through the air. The Rams also added Jalen Ramsey to their secondary making Ryan think twice about throwing towards Julio Jones and having to progress through his reads, if in fact Ramsey shadows Jones.