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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 14
Thursday's game
Saints (9-3) @ Falcons (7-5)— New Orleans took over top spot in NFC South with win over Carolina LW; Saints won nine of last 10 games, are 3-2 in true road games, losing to Vikings, Rams. In its last five games, NO has run ball for 176 yds/game, taking heat off of Brees. Atlanta had 3-game win streak snapped by Vikings LW; Falcons are 7-0 when they score 23+ points, 0-5 when they score 17 or less. These rivals split last eight meetings; they meet again in two weeks in Superdome. Saints are 5-3 in last eight visits to Atlanta. Home teams are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Three of last four Saint games went over total; under is 7-2 in Atlanta’s last nine games.
Sunday's games
Lions (6-6) @ Buccaneers (4-8)— Stafford hurt his hand late in loss to Ravens LW; check status. Untested Iowa alum Rudock is his backup. Lions allowed 74 points in losing last two games (turnover ratio of -5); they’re 4-2 on road, losing by 14 in Superdome, 24 in Baltimore. Tampa Bay lost seven of last eight games; they got QB Winston back last week, and are 3-2 at home, losing 19-14 to Patriots, 17-3 to Carolina. Detroit won three of last four series games, winning 27-20/23-20ot in last two visits here, with last visit here in ’11. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 7-10 vs spread; NFC North road teams are 7-6. Last five Detroit games went over total; four of Buccaneers’ five home games stayed under.
Bears (3-9) @ Bengals (5-7)— Last week, Bears were first team in NFL history to run a punt back for a TD, not allow a TD, win turnover battle and still lose the game. Last two weeks combined, Bears have run 85 plays for 287 yards- not good. Short week for Bengals after blowing 17-0 lead in Monday night loss to hated Steelers. Since 2005, Cincy is 5-9-1 vs spread in game the week following loss to Pittsburgh. Bengals covered their last four games; they’re 3-3 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorites. Chicago lost its last five gamesBengals won four of last six series games; teams split four meetings played here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 6-6. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Bengal games.
Colts (3-9) @ Bills (6-6)— Bills QB Taylor hurt his knee LW, would be replaced here by rookie Peterman who threw five picks in one dreadful half vs Chargers in his only NFL start. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-0-1 as home favorites. Indy lost six of its last seven games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs, with only win 20-14 (+7) in Houston. Colts won seven of last nine series games, but most of that was in Manning era for Colts; Indy lost 30-7/27-14 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4-1. Bills are -8 in turnovers their last five games; they were +14 in their first seven. Last four Indy games stayed under the total.
Seahawks (8-4) @ Jaguars (8-4)— Seahawks won seven of their last nine games; they won last four road games, after losing first two- Seattle is 1-2 as road underdogs. Jacksonville won five of its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Titans/Rams. Jaguars allowed 23+ points in their four losses; they’re 8-0 when they allow 17 or less. Seahawks scored 22+ points in six of their last seven games. Seattle is 5-2 against the Jaguars; home side won last four series games. Teams split four games played here. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 4-7 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 5-4-1. Under is 6-2 in Seattle’s last eight games, 5-1 in Jaguars’ last six.
Raiders (6-6) @ Chiefs (6-6)— Teams are in 3-way tie with Chargers atop AFC West. Chiefs lost six of last seven games after a 5-0 start; KC is 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-8 points, losing to Steelers/Bills. Chiefs have only one takeaway (-4) in their last four games. Raiders won three of last four games; they’re 2-3 in true road games, 1-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-6-20 points, with wins in Nashville, Miami. Chiefs (-3) lost 31-30 in Oakland in Week 7; Raiders gained 505 yards, threw for 417 as they snapped 5-game series skid. Oakland lost its last four games in Arrowhead, by 17-18-6-8 points. Last three Raider games stayed under total, as did three of last four Chief games. KC is 0-4 in games decided by less than 7 points.
Vikings (10-2) @ Panthers (8-4)— Minnesota is on road for third week in a row; they won their last eight games, covered last seven. Vikings are 4-1 in true road games, with only loss 26-9 in Pittsburgh. In their last four games, Minnesota is 27-51 (52.9%) on 3rd down, their opponents 12-46 (26.1%). Carolina won four of its last five games; they’re 3-2 at home, losing to Saints, Eagles, winning by 6-3-24 points. Panthers are 8-4 despite a -7 turnover ratio; they have only 11 takeaways. Carolina scored 11 TD’s on its last 30 drives; eight of them were 75+ yard drives. Vikings won three of last four series games; they won 22-10 in Charlotte LY. Four of last six Viking games went over the total, as have last three Carolina games.
Packers (6-6) @ Browns (0-12)— Winless Cleveland is 3-9 vs spread, 2-3 at home, losing games on Lake Erie by 3-24-3-3-12 points. Browns are -20 in turnovers because in part because Kizer isn’t an NFL-caliber QB; in their last nine games, Cleveland scored 63 points on 21 red zone drives, which is really poor. Green Bay lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-3 on road, 0-1 as road favorite. Packers have been outscored in 2nd half in six of last seven games. Green Bay is 3-1 against the Browns, winning by 23-28-18 points, winning 31-3 in its last visit here, in ’09. All five Cleveland home games stayed under the total; four of last five Packer games went over. Last two weeks, Green Bay opponents converted 17 of 29 third down plays.
49ers (2-10) @ Texans (4-8)— 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start LW, despite not scoring a TD; they were first team in NFL history to allow punt return for a TD, not score a TD, lose turnover battle and still win the game. Niners won two of last three games; they’re 4-2 vs spread as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-3-2-23 points, with win in Chicago. Texans lost five of their last six games; they’re 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with wins by 43-16-10 points. In their last three games, Houston lost field position by 13-13-14 yards; they haven’t led at halftime since Watson got hurt. Home side won all three series games; 49ers lost 24-21 in last visits here, in ’09. Despite their win last week, Niners had no TD’s (five FG’s) in five red zone drives.
Redskins (5-7) @ Chargers (6-6)— Chargers are 6-2 in last eight games, winning last three, by 30-22-9 points- they were +10 in turnovers in those games. Bolts won last three home games after losing first three- they’re 1-2 as home favorites. Redskins lost five of last seven games; they are 2-4 on road, beating Rams/Seattle, losing by 9-10-3-24 points. Washington is 7-3 against the Chargers; five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points or in OT. Teams split four series games that were played in California. Over is 6-2 in last eight Washington games; six of last seven Charger games stayed under. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 against the spread; AFC West home favorites are 4-9 vs spread.
Jets (5-7) @ Broncos (3-9)— Denver is horrible, losing last eight games (0-8 vs spread); their offense was outscored 9-0 by the Miami defense last week. Broncos are 1-4 vs spread as a dog this year- they lost last three home games, by 13-25-3 points. In its last six games, Denver lost field position by 11+ yards five times. Jets lost five of their last seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG in Cleveland. Jets are 3-1 when allowing 20 or less points. 2-6 if they allow more than 20. Denver won four of last five series games; this is Jets’ first visit here since 2011. Four of last six Denver games went over the total, as did three of last four Jet games. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 10-8-1 vs spread, 6-5 on the road.
Titans (8-4) @ Cardinals (5-7)— Tennessee won six of its last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 4 or less points. Titans are 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorites; they’re 7-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-4 if they score less than 20. Arizona was outscored 55-24 in 2nd half of its last three games; they’re at home for 3rd week in row. Cardinals lost three of last four games, are 3-3 at home, 2-2-1 as home underdogs. Arizona leads series 6-4; they won last meeting in OT in Nashville in 2013- this is Titans’ first visit to the desert since ’05. Over is 7-4 in Titans’ last 11 games, 3-0 in Arizona’s last three. Tennessee outscored its last two opponents 28-6 in 2nd half; in their last six games, Titans allowed an average of only 66.5 rushing yards/game.
Eagles (10-2) @ Rams (9-3)— Eagles have 4-game lead with four weeks left; Rams lead by game in NFC West, and visit Seattle next week. Philly had 9-game win streak snapped LW; Eagles are 4-2 on road, 1-1 as road underdogs. Iggles turned ball over five times in last two games, after turning it over only five times in previous seven games. Last week was first time since Week 1 that Philly ran for less than 100 yards. Rams won six of their last seven games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites. LA won field position battle in last seven games; they’re only 9-36 on 3rd down in last three games. Eagles won last four series games; last meeting was in ’14. Rams’ last win was in ’04. Four of last five Eagle games stayed under, as did three of Rams’ last four games.
Cowboys (6-6) @ Giants (2-10)— McAdoo is gone, Manning is back at QB for Giants team that is 1-4 at home, with only win 12-9 in OT over the Chiefs. New York is 1-4 as home underdogs this season. In their last three games, Giants are 10-41 on 3rd down. Cowboys had extra prep time after playing on Thursday LW; they’ve lost three of last four games, are 3-2 on road, losing in Denver, Atlanta, both by 20+ points. Cowboys are 5-3 vs spread as favorites this year, 3-1 on road. Dallas (-4) beat the Giants 19-3 at home in season opener; outrushing them 129-35, winning despite scoring only 16 points in four visits to red zone. Cowboys are 6-3 in last nine series games, but lost 27-20/10-7 in last two visits here.
Ravens (7-5) @ Steelers (10-2)— Shazier/Smith-Schuster are both out for Steelers, after tough win in Cincy Monday night. Steelers won their last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 5 or less points. Pitt is 4-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorites. Ravens won four of last five games, allowing 11.8 ppg; they’re 2-1-1 as road underdogs. Pitt (-3) spanked Ravens 26-9 in Baltimore in Week 4, running ball for 172 yards; Baltimore turned ball over three times (-2), averaged 3.9 ypp. Ravens are +20 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in losses- they have 11 takeaways in their last three games. Baltimore won four of last five series games; they won two of last three visits here, with an OT win, playoff win. Over is 2-0-1 in last three Steeler games, 7-1 in Ravens’ last eight.
Monday's game
Patriots (10-2) @ Dolphins (5-7)— New England (-16) spanked Miami 35-17 two weeks ago in Foxboro, running ball for 196 yards, outgaining Fish 417-221- it was Patriots’ 5th win in last six series games. NE actually lost three of last four visits to Miami. Patriots won their last eight games, covered their last six; they’re 4-1 as road favorite this year, with only non-cover a 24-17 win at the Jets. Miami snapped a 5-game skid LW; Dolphins are 3-2 at home, losing to Bucs by 10, Raiders by 3- they’re 1-0-1 as home underdogs. Six of last eight Patriot games stayed under; last six Miami games went over. New England ran ball for 196-191 yards last two weeks; they held last three opponents under 5.0 ypa. Pats’ TE Gronkowski is suspended for this game.
2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2
12) 7-2-1 1-5 8-8 2-2
13) 1-0 1-0
T) 54-52-2 27-32-2 85-89-2 26-15N
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 14
Thursday's game
Saints (9-3) @ Falcons (7-5)— New Orleans took over top spot in NFC South with win over Carolina LW; Saints won nine of last 10 games, are 3-2 in true road games, losing to Vikings, Rams. In its last five games, NO has run ball for 176 yds/game, taking heat off of Brees. Atlanta had 3-game win streak snapped by Vikings LW; Falcons are 7-0 when they score 23+ points, 0-5 when they score 17 or less. These rivals split last eight meetings; they meet again in two weeks in Superdome. Saints are 5-3 in last eight visits to Atlanta. Home teams are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Three of last four Saint games went over total; under is 7-2 in Atlanta’s last nine games.
Sunday's games
Lions (6-6) @ Buccaneers (4-8)— Stafford hurt his hand late in loss to Ravens LW; check status. Untested Iowa alum Rudock is his backup. Lions allowed 74 points in losing last two games (turnover ratio of -5); they’re 4-2 on road, losing by 14 in Superdome, 24 in Baltimore. Tampa Bay lost seven of last eight games; they got QB Winston back last week, and are 3-2 at home, losing 19-14 to Patriots, 17-3 to Carolina. Detroit won three of last four series games, winning 27-20/23-20ot in last two visits here, with last visit here in ’11. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 7-10 vs spread; NFC North road teams are 7-6. Last five Detroit games went over total; four of Buccaneers’ five home games stayed under.
Bears (3-9) @ Bengals (5-7)— Last week, Bears were first team in NFL history to run a punt back for a TD, not allow a TD, win turnover battle and still lose the game. Last two weeks combined, Bears have run 85 plays for 287 yards- not good. Short week for Bengals after blowing 17-0 lead in Monday night loss to hated Steelers. Since 2005, Cincy is 5-9-1 vs spread in game the week following loss to Pittsburgh. Bengals covered their last four games; they’re 3-3 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorites. Chicago lost its last five gamesBengals won four of last six series games; teams split four meetings played here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 6-6. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Bengal games.
Colts (3-9) @ Bills (6-6)— Bills QB Taylor hurt his knee LW, would be replaced here by rookie Peterman who threw five picks in one dreadful half vs Chargers in his only NFL start. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-0-1 as home favorites. Indy lost six of its last seven games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs, with only win 20-14 (+7) in Houston. Colts won seven of last nine series games, but most of that was in Manning era for Colts; Indy lost 30-7/27-14 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4-1. Bills are -8 in turnovers their last five games; they were +14 in their first seven. Last four Indy games stayed under the total.
Seahawks (8-4) @ Jaguars (8-4)— Seahawks won seven of their last nine games; they won last four road games, after losing first two- Seattle is 1-2 as road underdogs. Jacksonville won five of its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Titans/Rams. Jaguars allowed 23+ points in their four losses; they’re 8-0 when they allow 17 or less. Seahawks scored 22+ points in six of their last seven games. Seattle is 5-2 against the Jaguars; home side won last four series games. Teams split four games played here. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 4-7 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 5-4-1. Under is 6-2 in Seattle’s last eight games, 5-1 in Jaguars’ last six.
Raiders (6-6) @ Chiefs (6-6)— Teams are in 3-way tie with Chargers atop AFC West. Chiefs lost six of last seven games after a 5-0 start; KC is 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-8 points, losing to Steelers/Bills. Chiefs have only one takeaway (-4) in their last four games. Raiders won three of last four games; they’re 2-3 in true road games, 1-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-6-20 points, with wins in Nashville, Miami. Chiefs (-3) lost 31-30 in Oakland in Week 7; Raiders gained 505 yards, threw for 417 as they snapped 5-game series skid. Oakland lost its last four games in Arrowhead, by 17-18-6-8 points. Last three Raider games stayed under total, as did three of last four Chief games. KC is 0-4 in games decided by less than 7 points.
Vikings (10-2) @ Panthers (8-4)— Minnesota is on road for third week in a row; they won their last eight games, covered last seven. Vikings are 4-1 in true road games, with only loss 26-9 in Pittsburgh. In their last four games, Minnesota is 27-51 (52.9%) on 3rd down, their opponents 12-46 (26.1%). Carolina won four of its last five games; they’re 3-2 at home, losing to Saints, Eagles, winning by 6-3-24 points. Panthers are 8-4 despite a -7 turnover ratio; they have only 11 takeaways. Carolina scored 11 TD’s on its last 30 drives; eight of them were 75+ yard drives. Vikings won three of last four series games; they won 22-10 in Charlotte LY. Four of last six Viking games went over the total, as have last three Carolina games.
Packers (6-6) @ Browns (0-12)— Winless Cleveland is 3-9 vs spread, 2-3 at home, losing games on Lake Erie by 3-24-3-3-12 points. Browns are -20 in turnovers because in part because Kizer isn’t an NFL-caliber QB; in their last nine games, Cleveland scored 63 points on 21 red zone drives, which is really poor. Green Bay lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-3 on road, 0-1 as road favorite. Packers have been outscored in 2nd half in six of last seven games. Green Bay is 3-1 against the Browns, winning by 23-28-18 points, winning 31-3 in its last visit here, in ’09. All five Cleveland home games stayed under the total; four of last five Packer games went over. Last two weeks, Green Bay opponents converted 17 of 29 third down plays.
49ers (2-10) @ Texans (4-8)— 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start LW, despite not scoring a TD; they were first team in NFL history to allow punt return for a TD, not score a TD, lose turnover battle and still win the game. Niners won two of last three games; they’re 4-2 vs spread as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-3-2-23 points, with win in Chicago. Texans lost five of their last six games; they’re 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with wins by 43-16-10 points. In their last three games, Houston lost field position by 13-13-14 yards; they haven’t led at halftime since Watson got hurt. Home side won all three series games; 49ers lost 24-21 in last visits here, in ’09. Despite their win last week, Niners had no TD’s (five FG’s) in five red zone drives.
Redskins (5-7) @ Chargers (6-6)— Chargers are 6-2 in last eight games, winning last three, by 30-22-9 points- they were +10 in turnovers in those games. Bolts won last three home games after losing first three- they’re 1-2 as home favorites. Redskins lost five of last seven games; they are 2-4 on road, beating Rams/Seattle, losing by 9-10-3-24 points. Washington is 7-3 against the Chargers; five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points or in OT. Teams split four series games that were played in California. Over is 6-2 in last eight Washington games; six of last seven Charger games stayed under. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 against the spread; AFC West home favorites are 4-9 vs spread.
Jets (5-7) @ Broncos (3-9)— Denver is horrible, losing last eight games (0-8 vs spread); their offense was outscored 9-0 by the Miami defense last week. Broncos are 1-4 vs spread as a dog this year- they lost last three home games, by 13-25-3 points. In its last six games, Denver lost field position by 11+ yards five times. Jets lost five of their last seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG in Cleveland. Jets are 3-1 when allowing 20 or less points. 2-6 if they allow more than 20. Denver won four of last five series games; this is Jets’ first visit here since 2011. Four of last six Denver games went over the total, as did three of last four Jet games. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 10-8-1 vs spread, 6-5 on the road.
Titans (8-4) @ Cardinals (5-7)— Tennessee won six of its last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 4 or less points. Titans are 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorites; they’re 7-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-4 if they score less than 20. Arizona was outscored 55-24 in 2nd half of its last three games; they’re at home for 3rd week in row. Cardinals lost three of last four games, are 3-3 at home, 2-2-1 as home underdogs. Arizona leads series 6-4; they won last meeting in OT in Nashville in 2013- this is Titans’ first visit to the desert since ’05. Over is 7-4 in Titans’ last 11 games, 3-0 in Arizona’s last three. Tennessee outscored its last two opponents 28-6 in 2nd half; in their last six games, Titans allowed an average of only 66.5 rushing yards/game.
Eagles (10-2) @ Rams (9-3)— Eagles have 4-game lead with four weeks left; Rams lead by game in NFC West, and visit Seattle next week. Philly had 9-game win streak snapped LW; Eagles are 4-2 on road, 1-1 as road underdogs. Iggles turned ball over five times in last two games, after turning it over only five times in previous seven games. Last week was first time since Week 1 that Philly ran for less than 100 yards. Rams won six of their last seven games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites. LA won field position battle in last seven games; they’re only 9-36 on 3rd down in last three games. Eagles won last four series games; last meeting was in ’14. Rams’ last win was in ’04. Four of last five Eagle games stayed under, as did three of Rams’ last four games.
Cowboys (6-6) @ Giants (2-10)— McAdoo is gone, Manning is back at QB for Giants team that is 1-4 at home, with only win 12-9 in OT over the Chiefs. New York is 1-4 as home underdogs this season. In their last three games, Giants are 10-41 on 3rd down. Cowboys had extra prep time after playing on Thursday LW; they’ve lost three of last four games, are 3-2 on road, losing in Denver, Atlanta, both by 20+ points. Cowboys are 5-3 vs spread as favorites this year, 3-1 on road. Dallas (-4) beat the Giants 19-3 at home in season opener; outrushing them 129-35, winning despite scoring only 16 points in four visits to red zone. Cowboys are 6-3 in last nine series games, but lost 27-20/10-7 in last two visits here.
Ravens (7-5) @ Steelers (10-2)— Shazier/Smith-Schuster are both out for Steelers, after tough win in Cincy Monday night. Steelers won their last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 5 or less points. Pitt is 4-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorites. Ravens won four of last five games, allowing 11.8 ppg; they’re 2-1-1 as road underdogs. Pitt (-3) spanked Ravens 26-9 in Baltimore in Week 4, running ball for 172 yards; Baltimore turned ball over three times (-2), averaged 3.9 ypp. Ravens are +20 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in losses- they have 11 takeaways in their last three games. Baltimore won four of last five series games; they won two of last three visits here, with an OT win, playoff win. Over is 2-0-1 in last three Steeler games, 7-1 in Ravens’ last eight.
Monday's game
Patriots (10-2) @ Dolphins (5-7)— New England (-16) spanked Miami 35-17 two weeks ago in Foxboro, running ball for 196 yards, outgaining Fish 417-221- it was Patriots’ 5th win in last six series games. NE actually lost three of last four visits to Miami. Patriots won their last eight games, covered their last six; they’re 4-1 as road favorite this year, with only non-cover a 24-17 win at the Jets. Miami snapped a 5-game skid LW; Dolphins are 3-2 at home, losing to Bucs by 10, Raiders by 3- they’re 1-0-1 as home underdogs. Six of last eight Patriot games stayed under; last six Miami games went over. New England ran ball for 196-191 yards last two weeks; they held last three opponents under 5.0 ypa. Pats’ TE Gronkowski is suspended for this game.
2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2
12) 7-2-1 1-5 8-8 2-2
13) 1-0 1-0
T) 54-52-2 27-32-2 85-89-2 26-15N
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