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Total Talk - Week 10
November 11, 2017
The ‘under’ produced a 7-6 mark in Week 9 and that record could’ve easily been 10-3 to the low side. Outside of the two easy ‘over’ winners between the Broncos-Eagles and Rams-Giants matchups, the other four tickets that went high received some late explosions. Those games included the Bills at Jets, Ravens at Titans, Raiders at Dolphins and of course we can’t forget the ‘bad beat’ in the Lions-Packers game on Monday Night Football. Losing an ‘under’ bet on an untimed down is a tough way to lose, lucky way to win. Through nine weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 67-64-1 record.
Line Moves
Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 10 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: 43 to 45
N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay: 41 to 43 ½
New Orleans at Buffalo: 48 ½ to 47 ½
Houston at L.A. Rams: 47 to 45 ½
Dallas at Atlanta: 50 ½ to 48 ½
New England at Denver: 46 ½ to 44 ½
After three straight solid defensive efforts, it appears that bettors are starting to believe that the Saints have become an ‘under’ team. Their total at Buffalo has dropped and Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu talks about the drop.
He said, “Really looking forward to the Saints-Bills matchup as it will give the Buffalo defense and New Orleans offense great litmus tests. I think the total drop is warranted as I expect the Bills’ defense to come out on top of this bout.”
Another indoor team watching the total drop in Week 10 is Atlanta, who hosts Dallas.
“I think the sharps are hitting the under in Dallas-Atlanta due to the unknown effectiveness of the offense without Zeke, as well as Tyron Smith. We shouldn’t be too exposed in the end however as the public will pound the over at whatever number,” Cooley added.
One total that jumped up was on the Jets-Buccaneers game, which could have you scratching your head considering both teams are dealing with key injuries and suspensions to their offensive units.
Cooley explained, “I think you can look to the fact that the Jets haven’t been as offensively deficient as expected this year, and the we know that Mr. Harvard will be good for a couple of turnovers in plus territory. The number feels about right at 43 or 44.”
Mr. Harvard is Jets former quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and he’ll be starting for Tampa Bay this week with Jameis Winston nursing a shoulder injury.
Along with the NY-Tampa Bay game, Cooley told VI that BookMaker.eu is also has a lot exposure on the ‘over’ in the Pittsburgh-Indianapolis.
Divisional Contests
Excluding this past Thursday’s result between Seattle and Arizona, the ‘under’ has gone 27-12 (69%) in divisional contests this season and that includes a 4-1 record to the low side last week. The one ‘over’ was the aforementioned ‘bad beat’ between the Packers and Lions.
There’s only one divisional matchup this week and it happens to have the lowest total (37 ½) on the board, plus it’s a rematch game. I mention that because we’ve seen the totals on these games produce the opposite result in the second encounter so far this season.
Green Bay at Chicago: In Week 4, Green Bay dropped Chicago 35-14 at home in a Thursday Night game and the ‘over’ (44 ½) connected behind four passing touchdowns from Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. He’s out for this game and so is Mike Glennon, who started for the Bears in that contest and is now the backup. This game will have Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky taking over at QB for the Pack and Bears respectively. Chicago has gone 3-1 to the ‘under’ with the rookie and the lone ‘over’ came against Baltimore, which featured three defensive and special team touchdowns. Hundley should be 2-0 to the ‘under’ and I won’t touch on last Monday’s result anymore.
AFC vs. NFC
With only one divisional game on tap, that leaves us with a handful of non-conference matchups. We haven’t had a solid lean one way or the other but through nine weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 19-15-1 edge in these contests.
N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay: The Jets have shown some life on offense recently (28, 20, 34) and that’s led to a 3-0 ‘over’ run. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay will be limited offensively (QB Wintson, WR Evans) this week and the unit has been held to 13 total points the last two games. Defensively, the Buccaneers are still near the bottom on the league in scoring (24.8 PPG), yards per game (389) and yards per play (5.9). Make a note that it’s rare to see the Jets as road favorites but they’ve been solid (4-1) in this role recently and so has the ‘under’ (4-1) as well.
New Orleans at Buffalo: Saints enter this matchup on a 3-0 ‘under’ run while the Bills are holding a 3-0 ‘over’ streak. I’m still not sold on either team defensively and their overall stats aren’t exactly eye-opening but you can’t ignore the fact that they make plays. Plus it helps that Buffalo (17 takeaways, 1st) and New Orleans (12, 10th) have both created a ton of turnovers. The Bills offense has been much better at home (27.8 PPG) this season and the team has posted 28 PPG off a loss this season. Buffalo was just embarrassed at the Jets last Thursday and will have extra time to focus here. For those of you believing the Saints aren’t the same team on the road, my colleague Kevin Rogers pointed out in his ‘Pick Six’ piece that New Orleans is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 away.
Cleveland at Detroit: The Lions have been a solid ‘over’ bet at home (3-1) but their last four games versus AFC opponents have all went ‘under’ the number and that includes their result vs. the Steelers two weeks ago from Ford Field. The Browns don’t have much of a pulse these days and it appears that the defense seems to pack it in on the road, allowing 24, 31, 33 points and they just gave up 33 at London in a designated home tilt.
Houston at L.A. Rams: I’m guessing the Rams-Over combination will likely be a popular wager in the late games this Sunday and I would advise bettors to be careful. While Los Angeles has put up some crooked numbers on offense this season, it hasn’t played in California in over a month when Seattle stifled them in a 16-10 loss. For whatever reason, the home numbers are down and even the 46 they posted over the Colts in Week 1 featured a couple pick-six scores by the defense. Due to the QB injury, it’s hard to expect much from Houston offensively but its defense could make this game competitive.
Miami at Carolina: (See Below)
Under the Lights
As mentioned above, the MNF result was a fortunate ‘over’ result and that helped the high side go 3-0 in Week 9. The ‘over’ has gone 19-11 (63%) in night games this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Seahawks and Cardinals.
New England at Denver: The late-night chase game could have you scratching your head on this total. The Patriots started the season with four straight ‘over’ wins but followed that run with four consecutive ‘under’ tickets and even though the defense doesn’t boast great statistics, they’ve only allowed 12.8 PPG during this span. At the same time, the New England offense (21.8 PPG) hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately and neither has been the Broncos defense. That unit has allowed 31 PPG in their last four games, resulting in a four-game losing streak albeit three of the losses were on the road. At home, Denver is still stout defensively and they’ve kept Tom Brady in check when he visits. The Pats are 1-3 in the last four road games at Denver and the offense (18.5 PPG) was less than stellar.
Miami at Carolina: Low total (38 ½) for this non-conference matchup and the number seems fair when you look at both offensive units. The Panthers are on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and the defense has been solid (37 points) during this span. Miami has shown a little pop in its last three games (31, 24) but it was also shutout in between those efforts. If you include their other shutout versus the Saints from London, the Dolphins are averaging 9 PPG away from home this season.
Fearless Predictions
Going all in on the ‘under’ in the Bucs-Saints matchup cost me twice but I caught a fortunate push on the Ravens-Titans game and it was nice to see the Broncos offense actually showed up. The weekly deficit ($120) was still in the read and we’re down over five units ($560) with eight weeks of the regular season left. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Pittsburgh-Indianapolis 45
Best Under: Cincinnati-Tennessee 40 ½
Best Team Total: Under 26 New England
Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
< Under 46 Green Bay-Chicago
Over 35 ½ Cleveland-Detroit
Under 53 New England-Denver
November 11, 2017
The ‘under’ produced a 7-6 mark in Week 9 and that record could’ve easily been 10-3 to the low side. Outside of the two easy ‘over’ winners between the Broncos-Eagles and Rams-Giants matchups, the other four tickets that went high received some late explosions. Those games included the Bills at Jets, Ravens at Titans, Raiders at Dolphins and of course we can’t forget the ‘bad beat’ in the Lions-Packers game on Monday Night Football. Losing an ‘under’ bet on an untimed down is a tough way to lose, lucky way to win. Through nine weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 67-64-1 record.
Line Moves
Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 10 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: 43 to 45
N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay: 41 to 43 ½
New Orleans at Buffalo: 48 ½ to 47 ½
Houston at L.A. Rams: 47 to 45 ½
Dallas at Atlanta: 50 ½ to 48 ½
New England at Denver: 46 ½ to 44 ½
After three straight solid defensive efforts, it appears that bettors are starting to believe that the Saints have become an ‘under’ team. Their total at Buffalo has dropped and Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu talks about the drop.
He said, “Really looking forward to the Saints-Bills matchup as it will give the Buffalo defense and New Orleans offense great litmus tests. I think the total drop is warranted as I expect the Bills’ defense to come out on top of this bout.”
Another indoor team watching the total drop in Week 10 is Atlanta, who hosts Dallas.
“I think the sharps are hitting the under in Dallas-Atlanta due to the unknown effectiveness of the offense without Zeke, as well as Tyron Smith. We shouldn’t be too exposed in the end however as the public will pound the over at whatever number,” Cooley added.
One total that jumped up was on the Jets-Buccaneers game, which could have you scratching your head considering both teams are dealing with key injuries and suspensions to their offensive units.
Cooley explained, “I think you can look to the fact that the Jets haven’t been as offensively deficient as expected this year, and the we know that Mr. Harvard will be good for a couple of turnovers in plus territory. The number feels about right at 43 or 44.”
Mr. Harvard is Jets former quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and he’ll be starting for Tampa Bay this week with Jameis Winston nursing a shoulder injury.
Along with the NY-Tampa Bay game, Cooley told VI that BookMaker.eu is also has a lot exposure on the ‘over’ in the Pittsburgh-Indianapolis.
Divisional Contests
Excluding this past Thursday’s result between Seattle and Arizona, the ‘under’ has gone 27-12 (69%) in divisional contests this season and that includes a 4-1 record to the low side last week. The one ‘over’ was the aforementioned ‘bad beat’ between the Packers and Lions.
There’s only one divisional matchup this week and it happens to have the lowest total (37 ½) on the board, plus it’s a rematch game. I mention that because we’ve seen the totals on these games produce the opposite result in the second encounter so far this season.
Green Bay at Chicago: In Week 4, Green Bay dropped Chicago 35-14 at home in a Thursday Night game and the ‘over’ (44 ½) connected behind four passing touchdowns from Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. He’s out for this game and so is Mike Glennon, who started for the Bears in that contest and is now the backup. This game will have Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky taking over at QB for the Pack and Bears respectively. Chicago has gone 3-1 to the ‘under’ with the rookie and the lone ‘over’ came against Baltimore, which featured three defensive and special team touchdowns. Hundley should be 2-0 to the ‘under’ and I won’t touch on last Monday’s result anymore.
AFC vs. NFC
With only one divisional game on tap, that leaves us with a handful of non-conference matchups. We haven’t had a solid lean one way or the other but through nine weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 19-15-1 edge in these contests.
N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay: The Jets have shown some life on offense recently (28, 20, 34) and that’s led to a 3-0 ‘over’ run. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay will be limited offensively (QB Wintson, WR Evans) this week and the unit has been held to 13 total points the last two games. Defensively, the Buccaneers are still near the bottom on the league in scoring (24.8 PPG), yards per game (389) and yards per play (5.9). Make a note that it’s rare to see the Jets as road favorites but they’ve been solid (4-1) in this role recently and so has the ‘under’ (4-1) as well.
New Orleans at Buffalo: Saints enter this matchup on a 3-0 ‘under’ run while the Bills are holding a 3-0 ‘over’ streak. I’m still not sold on either team defensively and their overall stats aren’t exactly eye-opening but you can’t ignore the fact that they make plays. Plus it helps that Buffalo (17 takeaways, 1st) and New Orleans (12, 10th) have both created a ton of turnovers. The Bills offense has been much better at home (27.8 PPG) this season and the team has posted 28 PPG off a loss this season. Buffalo was just embarrassed at the Jets last Thursday and will have extra time to focus here. For those of you believing the Saints aren’t the same team on the road, my colleague Kevin Rogers pointed out in his ‘Pick Six’ piece that New Orleans is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 away.
Cleveland at Detroit: The Lions have been a solid ‘over’ bet at home (3-1) but their last four games versus AFC opponents have all went ‘under’ the number and that includes their result vs. the Steelers two weeks ago from Ford Field. The Browns don’t have much of a pulse these days and it appears that the defense seems to pack it in on the road, allowing 24, 31, 33 points and they just gave up 33 at London in a designated home tilt.
Houston at L.A. Rams: I’m guessing the Rams-Over combination will likely be a popular wager in the late games this Sunday and I would advise bettors to be careful. While Los Angeles has put up some crooked numbers on offense this season, it hasn’t played in California in over a month when Seattle stifled them in a 16-10 loss. For whatever reason, the home numbers are down and even the 46 they posted over the Colts in Week 1 featured a couple pick-six scores by the defense. Due to the QB injury, it’s hard to expect much from Houston offensively but its defense could make this game competitive.
Miami at Carolina: (See Below)
Under the Lights
As mentioned above, the MNF result was a fortunate ‘over’ result and that helped the high side go 3-0 in Week 9. The ‘over’ has gone 19-11 (63%) in night games this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Seahawks and Cardinals.
New England at Denver: The late-night chase game could have you scratching your head on this total. The Patriots started the season with four straight ‘over’ wins but followed that run with four consecutive ‘under’ tickets and even though the defense doesn’t boast great statistics, they’ve only allowed 12.8 PPG during this span. At the same time, the New England offense (21.8 PPG) hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately and neither has been the Broncos defense. That unit has allowed 31 PPG in their last four games, resulting in a four-game losing streak albeit three of the losses were on the road. At home, Denver is still stout defensively and they’ve kept Tom Brady in check when he visits. The Pats are 1-3 in the last four road games at Denver and the offense (18.5 PPG) was less than stellar.
Miami at Carolina: Low total (38 ½) for this non-conference matchup and the number seems fair when you look at both offensive units. The Panthers are on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and the defense has been solid (37 points) during this span. Miami has shown a little pop in its last three games (31, 24) but it was also shutout in between those efforts. If you include their other shutout versus the Saints from London, the Dolphins are averaging 9 PPG away from home this season.
Fearless Predictions
Going all in on the ‘under’ in the Bucs-Saints matchup cost me twice but I caught a fortunate push on the Ravens-Titans game and it was nice to see the Broncos offense actually showed up. The weekly deficit ($120) was still in the read and we’re down over five units ($560) with eight weeks of the regular season left. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Pittsburgh-Indianapolis 45
Best Under: Cincinnati-Tennessee 40 ½
Best Team Total: Under 26 New England
Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
< Under 46 Green Bay-Chicago
Over 35 ½ Cleveland-Detroit
Under 53 New England-Denver
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