Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:14 AM

NFL opening line report: Early sharp action on Bills as home dogs in Week 10
Patrick Everson

The marquee matchup of Week 10 in the NFL features two teams that should be of playoff caliber, but only one actually playing that way right now. Covers takes a look at opening lines on a quartet of next weekend’s contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (no line)

Defending NFC champion Atlanta won its first three games SU, but hasn’t looked good since then. The Falcons (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) are on a 1-4 SU skid, failing to cash in all five of those games. In Week 9, Atlanta had another lackluster offensive effort, unable to score in the middle two quarters of a 20-17 loss at Carolina as a 3-point favorite.

Dallas has won three in a row SU and ATS to get its season back on track. The Cowboys (5-3 SU and ATS) dispatched Kansas City 28-17 Sunday as a 2.5-point home chalk.

Bookmaker.eu is sitting tight on a line for this game, as the Ezekiel Elliott suspended/not suspended chronicles continue this week.

“It feels like the Cowboys are finally catching their stride offensively, and the defense looked like a different, competent unit against Kansas City,” Cooley said. “That said, we have to wait to see what the next chapter is in the Ezekiel Elliott saga, because he certainly is worth something to the line. If he is ultimately suspended, Dallas will be a short underdog at Atlanta.”

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7)

New England is tied for the best record in the AFC and coming off its bye week. The Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won four straight (3-1 ATS), including a 21-13 home victory over the Los Angeles Chargers giving 6.5 points in Week 8.

Denver is a hot mess at quarterback, and even its normally reliable defense struggled in Week 9. The Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) got trampled at Philadelphia, 51-23 as a 7-point underdog.

“Denver is in one of those situations where one side has given up because the other side isn’t performing,” Cooley said. “The offense is a mess, and there doesn’t seem to be a solution in sight. That said, you have to expect one of the Broncos’ best efforts here on Sunday night. This spread will likely head north, but there will be some value players on the home ‘dog with backs against the wall.”

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (+2.5)

Minnesota has a third-string quarterback and a first-place record heading into Week 10. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS), behind Case Keenum, have won four in a row and five of six, rolling past Cleveland 33-16 as an 11-point favorite in Week 8 before getting a bye this past week.

Washington (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) snapped a two-game SU and four-game ATS slide in Week 9. The Redskins got a late touchdown to upset Seattle 17-14 getting 8 points on the road.

“Early sharp action came in on the Redskins, knocking this down to +2 quickly,” Cooley said. “Hats go off to Jay Gruden and his staff for staying competitive amid all of the injuries. It will be interesting to see if that ragtag offensive line can hold up against one of the best defenses in the league.”

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)

New Orleans has to be among the bigger surprises this season. The Saints (6-2 SU and ATS) have won six in a row, covering every time after an 0-2 SU and ATS start. In Week 9, Drew Brees and Co. rolled Tampa Bay 30-10 as a 7-point chalk.

Buffalo (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) went to MetLife Stadium last Thursday night as a 3-point favorite against the New York Jets. But the Bills left with a 34-21 outright loss.

“Everyone is back on the Saints’ wagon with the win streak continuing, but we’re still just not sold on this team being completely turned around from what it’s been in recent years,” Cooley said. “The Buffalo offense will have a new weapon on display, and it feels like this spread should be closer to a pick ‘em. Early smart money was on the Bills.”

That money quickly moved Buffalo to +2.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:15 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson

The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

Game to bet now

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10)

Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger was questioning whether he wanted to even play football? Things have certainly changed, as the Steelers now are riding a three-game win streak, have taken complete control of the AFC North and are tied with New England for the best record in the AFC at 6-2.

Pittsburgh will play this one coming off its bye week against a Colts team with a newbie quarterback and in no way prepared to compete against elite teams. The line on this one has already crossed the Rubicon from 9.5 to 10, and is unlikely to change again unless heavy money comes crashing down on one side or the other.

Game to wait on

Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11)

Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury, and the Texans' subsequent loss to the Colts this past Sunday, has rocked Houston into considering signing Colin Kaepernick - a move that would do the league a solid by taking pressure off outspoken owner Bob McNair and put an end to the QB’s embarrassing suit against the NFL.

The Texans are in a deep hole at any rate, and now they have to contend with the most surprising team in the league. The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

There are some moving parts in this line, not the least of which is to find early betting reaction to LA’s 51-point outburst against the Giants this past Sunday. The line probably hasn’t firmed up yet.

Total to watch

New York Giants at San Francisco (42)

The Niners will eventually turn their team over to Jimmy Garoppolo, so what better place to open up their new toy than at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league? The 42 number is obviously a nod to both team’s offensive shortcomings, but it ignores the fact that neither has shown any interest in stopping opponents. San Francisco is ranked 27th overall defensively, and the Giants are 30th.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:17 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Sunday, November 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (6 - 2) at WASHINGTON (4 - 4) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (4 - 4) at CHICAGO (3 - 5) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 183-130 ATS (+40.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (6 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 6) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (3 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 3) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 28-4 ATS (+23.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (4 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 6) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (3 - 5) at TENNESSEE (5 - 3) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (6 - 2) at BUFFALO (5 - 3) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (0 - 8) at DETROIT (4 - 4) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 131-172 ATS (-58.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (3 - 5) at LA RAMS (6 - 2) - 11/12/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
LA RAMS is 180-227 ATS (-69.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 180-227 ATS (-69.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 81-116 ATS (-46.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 139-179 ATS (-57.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 60-93 ATS (-42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (5 - 3) at ATLANTA (4 - 4) - 11/12/2017, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (1 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 9) - 11/12/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 36-62 ATS (-32.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 33-57 ATS (-29.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) at DENVER (3 - 5) - 11/12/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (4 - 4) at CAROLINA (6 - 3) - 11/13/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:17 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Sunday, November 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (6 - 2) at WASHINGTON (4 - 4) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (4 - 4) at CHICAGO (3 - 5) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 183-130 ATS (+40.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (6 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 6) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (3 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 3) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 28-4 ATS (+23.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (4 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 6) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (3 - 5) at TENNESSEE (5 - 3) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (6 - 2) at BUFFALO (5 - 3) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (0 - 8) at DETROIT (4 - 4) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 131-172 ATS (-58.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (3 - 5) at LA RAMS (6 - 2) - 11/12/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
LA RAMS is 180-227 ATS (-69.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 180-227 ATS (-69.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 81-116 ATS (-46.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 139-179 ATS (-57.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 60-93 ATS (-42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (5 - 3) at ATLANTA (4 - 4) - 11/12/2017, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (1 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 9) - 11/12/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 36-62 ATS (-32.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 33-57 ATS (-29.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) at DENVER (3 - 5) - 11/12/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (4 - 4) at CAROLINA (6 - 3) - 11/13/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:20 AM

NFL

Week 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 12

GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

NEW ORLEANS @ BUFFALO
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo's last 12 games at home
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

CLEVELAND @ DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games

PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

LA CHARGERS @ JACKSONVILLE
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home

NY JETS @ TAMPA BAY
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing NY Jets

MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Washington
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

HOUSTON @ LA RAMS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
NY Giants is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
San Francisco is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against NY Giants

DALLAS @ ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against New England

Monday, November 13

MIAMI @ CAROLINA
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Miami
Carolina is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:21 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10
Monty Andrews

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 41.5)

Seahawks' lack of discipine vs. Cardinals' ability to draw flags

The Seattle Seahawks are no longer the best team in the NFC West - shockingly, that monicker now belongs to the Los Angeles Rams. But the Seahawks can begin the climb back to the peak with a victory Thursday against the division-rival Arizona Cardinals. Seattle is favored by nearly a touchdown in this one, but the Cardinals have been far more disciplined this season than the Seahawks - and that might be the kind of advantage that could prove to be an equalizer.

Seattle has gotten in its own way more than any other team in the league this season, racking up a mind-boggling 82 accepted penalties through its first nine games - nine more than the second-place New York Jets. The Seahawks' 673 accepted penalty yards also pace the NFL, and they're a distant 32nd in penalty flag margin (minus-31) and penalty yards differential (minus-232). Seattle picked up a whopping 16 penalties for 138 yards in last weekend's 17-14 home loss to the Washington Redskins.

Winning the penalty flag battle could prove difficult against a Cardinals team that has had an advantage in that area for the majority of the season. While Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack with 55 accepted penalties, the Cardinals have drawn 68 flags - tied with Miami for the most in the league - for 566 yards, fifth-most overall. Arizona's plus-13 flag differential ranks third in the NFL - and a similar edge this weekend could put the Cardinals in position for an upset win.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 44)

Steelers' potent pass rush vs. Colts' poor QB protection

The Pittsburgh Steelers are well-rested and ready to get back to their Super Bowl quest - and this week looks like a tasty matchup, as they're giving away double-digit points to the Colts in Indianapolis. Pittsburgh reeled off three consecutive victories heading into its Week 9 bye, and rolls into Indiana facing a Colts team that just learned it will be without franchise quarterback Andrew Luck for the remainder of the season. Look for Pittsburgh's pass rush to capitalize on an Indy O-line that ranks among the league's worst.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of pittsburgh's offense has been up-and-down through the first half of the season, but the defense has been one of the league's most consistently elite units in football. The Steelers come into Week 10 with 26 sacks; only Jacksonville, Carolina and Dallas have more. Pittsburgh has eight sacks during its three-game run, while the Steelers' offensive line has surrendered just one sack over that same span.

Heaven help the Colts, who will send Jacoby Brissett back under center this weekend. Indianapolis quarterbacks have been sacked 36 times so far this season, the highest total in the league; the Colts allowed just 44 sacks all of last season, and even that total was fifth-highest in the NFL. Brissett was taken down three times in last week's stunning win over the Houston Texans - and the Colts won't be so lucky if they can't protect their quarterback against one of the NFL's fiercest pass rushes.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 41)

Chargers' leaky run D vs. Jaguars' elite ground game

The Jacksonville Jaguars suddenly have division title aspirations as they look to remain atop the AFC South standings with a victory this weekend against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. Normalcy should return to the Jaguars' locker room after rookie running back Leonard Fournette was benched in Week 9 for a series of team violations. The Jaguars will need Fournette in the fold to take full advantage of the Chargers' questionable run defense.

The Chargers have limited opponents to just 19 points per game so far, but they should consider themselves fortunate in that regard given how much they have struggled against opposing rushers. Los Angeles ranks 28th out of 32 teams in yards per carry (4.6), 29th in rushing first downs allowed per game (7.0) and 31st in rushing yards against per contest (135.1). The Chargers have only given up five rushing scores, but that will change if they don't tighten up against the run.

This might not be the week the Chargers get right. The Jaguars boast the league's most potent rush attack, ranked first in yards per game on the ground (166.5) and second in yards per carry (4.8). And Jacksonville knows where its proverbial bread is buttered; it ranks first in the NFL in rush play percentage (52.9) and first in total rushes per game (34.8). It's no secret what the Jaguars' game plan will be - and the Chargers might not be equipped to do much about it.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 50.5)

Cowboys' interception avoidance vs. Falcons' flailing secondary

Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan were two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL last season. But, while Prescott has picked up right where he has left off, Ryan is scrambling to regain his 2017 form as he and the Falcons welcome Prescott and the Cowboys on Sunday. While there's still a possibility that the Cowboys will lose running back Ezekiel Elliott to suspension at some point, Prescott's play has put bettors' minds at ease - and should continue to do so against a subpar Atlanta secondary.

The Cowboys registered the third-fewest interceptions in the NFL last season with six - and while they're on pace to surpass that total in 2017, it won't be by much. Prescott has had just four passes picked off through his first eight games of the season; only four teams have fewer interceptions. Prescott's consistency has been remarkable; he has completed between 63.5 and 64 percent of his passes in each of the past three games, without throwing an interception in any of them.

Don't expect Prescott's INT total to climb against the Falcons, who come into Week 10 with a paltry two interceptions - ranking 31st out of 32 NFL teams. Atlanta's one interception return yard - that's right, one - is also 31st in the league. The Falcons also rank in the bottom half of the league in passes defended (33), while Prescott has had just 27 passes defended - tied for seventh-fewest in the NFL. It should be a low-pressure kind of day for Prescott, which could give the Cowboys a pivotal edge.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:24 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 10

Sunday, November 12

Sunday, November 12

Minnesota @ Washington

Game 251-252
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
137.462
Washington
134.571
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-1); Over

Green Bay @ Chicago

Game 253-254
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
130.999
Chicago
133.435
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 6
38
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+6); Under

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Game 255-256
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.137
Indianapolis
129.095
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 10 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+10 1/2); Under

LA Chargers @ Jacksonville

Game 257-258
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
131.637
Jacksonville
139.696
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 8
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-3 1/2); Under

NY Jets @ Tampa Bay

Game 259-260
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
131.994
Tampa Bay
127.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 4 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 2
43
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-2); Under

Cincinnati @ Tennessee

Game 261-262
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
128.987
Tennessee
129.725
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 5
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+5); Under

New Orleans @ Buffalo

Game 263-264
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
136.164
Buffalo
140.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Under

Cleveland @ Detroit

Game 265-266
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
121.425
Detroit
137.966
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 16 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 11
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-11); Over

Houston @ LA Rams

Game 267-268
November 12, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
128.117
LA Rams
148.313
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 20
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 11
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-11); Over

Dallas @ Atlanta

Game 269-270
November 12, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.555
Atlanta
138.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 2 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-2 1/2); Under

NY Giants @ San Francisco

Game 271-272
November 12, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
126.366
San Francisco
121.259
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 2 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-2 1/2); Under

New England @ Denver

Game 273-274
November 12, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
133.249
Denver
131.245
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+7 1/2); Under

Monday, November 13

Miami @ Carolina

Game 275-276
November 13, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
128.515
Carolina
130.657
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 10
40
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+10); Under

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:26 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Sunday's games
Vikings (6-2) @ Redskins (4-4)— Minnesota won last four games, covered last three; they’re 1-1 in true road games, losing in Pittsburgh, winning 20-17 in Chicago. Vikings are 1-6 in last seven post-bye games, 1-7 vs spread in last eight- they held five of last six opponents under their total for that game. Washington evened its record with upset win at Seattle; they were outgained by 143 yards, with three new starters on offensive line. Home side won last four series games; Vikings lost 38-26/26-20 in last two visits here. Average total in last five series games is 57. Three of last four Redskin games went over total. NFC North teams are 12-9 vs spread outsider their division; NFC East teams are 14-10 vs spread, 8-4 as an underdog.

Packers (4-4) @ Bears (3-5)— Green Bay lost its last three games, scoring 10-17-10 points; they aren’t very good without Rodgers, scoring four TD’s on (22) drives in last three losses. Chicago is 6-2 vs spread this year but they’re favored for first time this season here; this is first time in nine years they’re favored over Packers. Green Bay is 12-2 in last 14 series games; they won last seven visits here. Pack (-7) won first meeting 35-14 in Week 4, thanks to +4 TO ratio. Bears outgained Green Bay 308-260. Bears are 2-2 at home, allowing 15.8 ppg- they lost last three post-bye games, by 41-3-26 points. Under is 6-2 in Chicago games this season. NFL-wide, home favorites are 9-11-2 vs spread in divisional games. Since ’07, Bears are 15-28-3 as a home favorite; under Fox, they’re 0-4 as home faves.

Steelers (6-2) @ Colts (3-6)— Pittsburgh won/covered its last three games, allowing three TD’s on last 31 drives; Steelers are 4-1 on road, winning by 3-17-6-5 points- they’re 12-7 in last 19 games as a road favorite, 2-1 this year. Colts lost three of last four games, are 2-2 at home- three of the four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Steelers won last four series games, last three all by 17+ points. Pitt won last three visits here, by 3-3-21 points. Pittsburgh lost its last three post-bye games; they were favored in two of them. Indy won/covered last four pre-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Colts’ last seven games; under is 7-1 in Steeler games this season.

Chargers (3-5) @ Jaguars (5-3)— Jaguars outscored last four opponents 43-6 in second half of game. Chargers won three of last four games after an 0-4 start; LA lost four of last six post-bye games. Bolts are 3-1 as a road underdog this year, losing on road by 3 in Denver, 8 in Foxboro- they won at Giants/Raiders. Three of their five losses are by 3 points or less. Jaguars allowed 7-7-9-0-7 points in their wins, 27-23-27 in their losses; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Chargers won last six games vs J’ville, beating Jaguars each of the last four years, scoring 31+ points in last three meetings. Bolts won last three visits here. Last three Charger games stayed under total, as did three of last four Jaguar games.

Jets (4-5) @ Buccaneers (2-6)— Winston (shoulder), Evans (WR) are out here; former Jets QB Fitzpatrick gets nod here under center for Tampa Bay- he is 34 years old, has 46-69-1 record as an NFL starter- he went 13-14 with the Jets the last two years. Bucs lost their last five games (0-4-1 vs spread), scoring total of 13 points in last two games (1 TD on 21 drives). Tampa Bay is 2-2 at home (under 3-1). Jets won five of last seven pre-bye games; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 17-14 at Cleveland- their road losses are by 9-25-3 points. Jets are 10-1 vs Tampa Bay; their only loss to the Bucs was in 1984. Gang Green won its last three visits to Tampa, with last visit here in ’09. Jets have 2+ takeaways in each go their last five games (+5).

Bengals (3-5) @ Titans (5-3)— Cincy is 1-3 on road this year, 1-2 as road underdog, losing road games by 3-15-16 points- their one road win was in Cleveland. Bengals were held to 148 yards on just 37 plays in dismal 23-7 loss to Jaguars LW- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, had only 8 first downs. Tennessee won its last three games, winning last two by FG each; Titans are 3-1 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- their home wins are by 6-14-3 points. Cincy won last two series games, 24-17/33-7; they won last two visits to Nashville- their last loss here was in ’04. AFC North teams are 8-9-1 vs spread outside their division, 3-3-1 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 10-7-1, 4-2-1 as a home favorite. Over is 5-2 in last seven Tennessee games.

Saints (6-2) @ Bills (5-3)— New Orleans won its last six games after an 0-2 start; they’re 2-1 in true road games, winning at Carolina/Green Bay- they won last three games despite being -1 in turnovers in all three games. Saints allowed only 8 TD’s on their foes’ last 60 drives. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season, allowing 17.3 ppg; Saints won last four series games, all by 12+ points; this is their first visit to western NY since 2009- NO won last three visits here, with lone loss in 1983. NFC South teams are 9-15-2 vs spread outside their division, 6-6-1 on road; AFC East teams are 12-7-2, 5-4-2 at home. Last three Buffalo games went over total; under is 5-1 in last six Saint games. Teams coming off of Thursday night games are 10-5-1 vs spread this season.

Browns (0-8) @ Lions (4-4)— Short week for Detroit after rare win in Lambeau Monday night, which makes this a trap game for Lions. Detroit lost its last three home games, allowing 25.7 ppg- they’re 12-5-3 as home favorite under Caldwell, 1-1 this year. Cleveland is 0-9 (2-7 vs spread); they’re 0-2 as road underdogs this year, losing road games by 14-3-16 points. Browns are 1-5 (2-4 vs spread) in last six post-bye games. Detroit won last three series games, by 3-1-14 points; Browns lost 38-37 in their only visit here, in 2009. Browns’ last three road games went over the total. NFC North home teams are 8-5 vs spread outside the division; AFC North road underdogs are 3-3-1. Cleveland is -13 in turnovers this year, which helps explain the 0-8 mark.

Texans (3-5) @ Rams (6-2)— Houston scored 7-14 points in losing both games Savage started this year; they scored 34.7 ppg in other six games, so Watson’s injury is crippling. Texans are are 3-0 vs spread as road underdog this year; all three games were decided by 4 or less points, but they were also all Watson starts. Rams are home for first time in five weeks; they won last three games, by 10-33-34 points. LA is 1-2 as a home favorite- they lost their last two home games, to Seattle, Washington. Wade Phillips coached with the Texans in 2011-13, was interim coach for three games. Road team won all three series games; Texans won 16-13 in St Louis in only road series games, in ’09. Over is 6-2 in Rams games this season.

Cowboys (5-3) @ Falcons (4-4)— Falcons lost four of last five games after a 1-4 start; they’re 1-2 at home, losing to Buffalo/Miami in last two home tilts. Atlanta scored 23+ points in its four wins, 17 or less in four losses- they won last two series games 19-13/39-28; Cowboys’ last series win was in 2009. Teams split last six series games in Atlanta. Dallas won/covered its last three games; they won their last three road games. Cowboys allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses. Dallas ran ball for 183.4 ypg the last five games; check Elliott’s legal status. Last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; four of last five Dallas games went over. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks.

Giants (1-7) @ 49ers (0-9)— Not many 0-9 teams have been favored/pick ‘em in Game 10. 49ers were outscored 51-6 in first half of their last three games; they’re favored for first time this year. This will probably be Beathard’s last start for 49ers; they have bye next week, then Garoppolo figures to take over as the QB. Giants are 3-1 vs spread on road this year, winning at Denver in their last road game. Big Blue’s road losses are by 16-3-2 points, at Dallas/Philly/Tampa- they’ve allowed 400+ yards in their last three games- they allowed 14.1 ypa in rain last week. Big Blue lost field position in its last two games, by 11-14 yards. Giants won six of last eight series games; their last visit to SF was in 2012. Four of last six Giant games went over total.

Patriots (6-2) @ Broncos (3-5)— Denver lost its last four games, giving up 80 points in last two games; their reality is none of its three QB’s are good enough. Broncos allowed TD on defense or special teams in three of last four games- they’re 3-1 at home, but loss was to the 1-7 Giants. New England won its last four games (3-1 vs spread); they’re 3-0 on road, 2-1 as a road favorite, with road wins by 16-5-7 points. Patriots lost six of last eight visits to Denver; they’re 2-3 in last five games with Broncos- two of three losses were playoff games. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks. Broncos covered four of last five tries as a home underdog. Last four New England games stayed under the total.

Monday's game
Dolphins (4-4) @ Panthers (6-3)— Miami has led one game at halftime this year, Week 4 vs the Titans; Dolphins are 2-2 in true road games, with wins by total of 5 points. Three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Carolina is 2-2 at home; their defense has allowed only two TD’s on 31 drives in their last three games. Miami is 4-1 against the Panthers, winning 13-9/24-17 in its two visits here. Carolina won last meeting 20-16 in 2013. AFC East road teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC South home teams are 3-9. Panthers lost six of last eight pre-bye games. Carolina OC Mike Shula is Don Shula’s son. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Carolina games stayed under.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:27 AM

NFL Week 10 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

When Jacksonville wins, it wins big, with margins of 16, 27, 21, 37 and 22 points in victories this season. Can the Jaguars cover again in Week 10?

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 42.5)

The early offshore number came out with -2 on the Vikings and that quickly dropped to as low as -1 from the outset. I favor the offshore number, in fact, I made this Minnesota -2.5 to be honest.

As good as Washington looks at times, its season has been an up-and-down affair. A quality win in Seattle doesn’t mask the fact that they can’t seem to win against other top teams in the league. Prior to last Sunday, the Redskins fell to Dallas, Philadelphia and Kansas City, and their lone win was against the cellar-dwelling 49ers.

Minnesota has been pretty much lights out. Winners of four in a row, the Vikings defense has been their calling card. For six games in a row, they have not given up more than 17 points. This makes it a lot easier for the offense. Now, with a week off, both sides of the ball are well rested and ready to go. You have to think these guys are energized for this game.

No matter who you like with a line this low, all your asking for is your team to win. The spread appears to be a non-factor. That’s why I believe the value is with the Vikings. The way this line is moving, you just might want to wait to see if this hits the Pick’em level by game day.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 41)

Again, the early number coming out from the offshores was -4.5 and that was quickly bet down to the current -3.5. And like Vikings-Redskins game, I agree with the bookmakers on this one. I’m riding the Jaguar Express while it’s hot and made this line closer to -5.5, bordering -6.

Despite Philip Rivers’ mounting passing yardage, the Chargers don’t seem to be scoring a lot. Their offense is mustering less than 19 points per game, averaging only 17 the past three weeks. Certainly, there’s nothing wrong with their defense, but after losing their first four games of the season, their three-game win streak seems a little tarnished beating teams like the Giants, Oakland and Denver. Three teams that total just eight wins for the season.

Jacksonville is hot. Add the return of top running back, Leonard Fournette, and the offense can keep some distance on the scoreboard. As for the defense, the Jaguars have held three of their last four opponents to single digits. When Jacksonville wins, it wins big, with margins of 16, 27, 21, 37 and 22 points.

The momentum appears to be with the Jaguars, who are locked in a two-way tie for first place in the AFC South. Don’t be afraid of the hook - not when this game should be around a touchdown difference.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-5, 40.5)

Tennessee broke out of the gate at -5.5 and the line has been slowly creeping downwards, in some cases, as low as -4.5 at some books. I’m with the early money on this one. I made this no higher than -3.5 and was thinking -3 (-120) was better.

Cincinnati traditionally is a betting favorite for good reason. And although they don’t always play up to their expectations, the Bengals are a team that has the perception that they can break out at any time. With WR A.J. Green dodging the suspension bullet, the Bengals appear to be at their crossroads for this season. Their two losses in the past five weeks were to quality teams in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. And if not for those defeats, they’d be in the thick of things in the AFC North. They’ll be in thicker things if they lose this week.

Tennessee is mounting the W’s but peeling back the layers a bit reveals wins against Baltimore, Cleveland and Indianapolis. The Titans’ combined efforts have yielded a mere seven wins total. With an erratic offense, it seems that Cincinnati can stay close all game and even win this one straight up.

After last week’s dismal display, I get the feeling the Bengals will have something to prove and will be highly energized to get this game underway. The value here is with the dog, grabbing as many points as you can.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:30 AM

Pick Six - Week 10
November 9, 2017

Week 9 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 27-27 SU, 23-30-1 ATS

Vikings (-1 ½, 42 ½) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota
Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Vikings return from the bye week seeking their fifth consecutive victory after pulling away from the winless Browns in London two weeks ago, 33-16 as 11-point favorites. Minnesota’s defense continues to shut opponents down by allowing 17 points or less in six straight games, while outgaining each of those teams during this stretch. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was added to the active roster, but Case Keenum will remain the starter as he seeks his first 300-yard passing game since Week 2.

Washington
Record: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Redskins went to the west coast for the second time this season and knocked off an NFC contender for the second time. After defeating the Rams in Week 2, Washington pulled the trick again last week in a 17-14 triumph as eight-point underdogs at Seattle. That victory put an end to a two-game losing streak, as the ‘Skins improved to 4-1 against teams outside the NFC East. Washington and Minnesota have hooked up six times in the last seven seasons as the Vikings have captured four of those six matchups.

Best Bet: Redskins + 1 ½

Chargers at Jaguars (-3 ½, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Lightning Bolts have thrived on the highway this season compared to their new home in Carson. Los Angeles is 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS away from southern California, including underdog victories over the Giants and Raiders. The Chargers are back from the bye week following a 21-13 setback at New England in Week 8 as 6 ½-point underdogs to halt a three-game losing streak. This series has been owned by the Chargers, who have won six straight meetings with the Jaguars since 2010, including a 38-14 blowout of Jacksonville last season in San Diego.

Jacksonville
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Jaguars’ defense continues to dominate as Jacksonville has allowed single-digits in each of its five victories. Jacksonville picked up consecutive wins for the first time this season in last week’s 23-7 rout of Cincinnati as six-point favorites, while cashing the UNDER for the third time in the past four games. Jaguars’ running back Leonard Fournette is expected to return to the lineup after missing last week’s win due to a violation of team rules.

Best Bet: Chargers +3 ½

Bengals at Titans (-4 ½, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati
Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Bengals entered last week’s game at Jacksonville winners of three of their past four contests. However, wide receiver A.J. Green was ejected in the first quarter following a fight with Jacksonville’s Jalen Ramsey and the Bengals’ offense couldn’t get anything going in a 23-7 loss. For the third time this season, Cincinnati was held to 10 points or less, while the Bengals accumulated only 148 yards of offense. Cincinnati and Tennessee have met just twice since 2009 with the Bengals winning each time as the previous matchup came in 2014 at Paul Brown Stadium, 33-7.

Tennessee
Record: 5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Titans are heating up of late by pulling off three straight wins, including each of the past two by three points each. Tennessee held off Baltimore last week at home, 23-20, while eclipsing the OVER for the third straight time at Nissan Stadium. Five of the next six opponents for the Titans are currently below .500, although four of those games are away from Nashville. Tennessee has won seven of its last eight home contests dating back to last season.

Best Bet: Titans -4 ½

Saints (-2 ½, 46 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans
Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The 0-2 start by the Saints seems like a long time ago as New Orleans has built a six-game winning streak to take over first place in the NFC South. New Orleans has also covered each time during this hot stretch, while coming off a pair of home victories over Chicago and Tampa Bay. Since losing the opener at Minnesota, the Saints are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS away from the Superdome, while posting an incredible 12-2 ATS mark in their last 14 road games since December 2015.

Buffalo
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Bills were tripped up by the Jets last Thursday, 34-21 to fall to 1-3 on the road. However, Buffalo has yet to lose at New Era Field this season by compiling a 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS record, while putting up over 30 points in each of its last two home wins. The Bills have been outgained in the yardage category in seven straight games, but have covered in each of their two games as an underdog against NFC South opponents this season (Panthers and Falcons). Buffalo has dropped each of the past four meetings with New Orleans since 2001, including a 35-17 loss at the Superdome in 2013.

Best Bet: Bills +2 ½

Cowboys at Falcons (-3, 50 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Dallas
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Cowboys have rebounded from a minor two-game losing streak in early October by winning three straight contests. Dallas took care of Kansas City last Sunday, 28-17 as 2 ½-point favorites, highlighted by two touchdown passes and a touchdown run by quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys were blown out in their first road games of the season at Denver, but are rolling away from the Lone Star State by beating the Cardinals, 49ers, and Redskins in their last three road contests.

Atlanta
Record: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Falcons didn’t seem to have a Super Bowl hangover following a fast 3-0 start. However, the Falcons have been grounded lately by dropping four of their last five games, including a 20-17 defeat at Carolina last week in their NFC South opener. Atlanta squandered a 10-0 lead, while being held to 17 points or less in all four losses this season. The Falcons erased a 21-7 deficit in a 39-28 victory at Dallas in their last meeting two seasons ago, highlighted by a 12-catch, 164-yard, two-touchdown performance by wide receiver Julio Jones.

Best Bet: Falcons -3

Giants (-2 ½, 42) at 49ers – 4:25 PM EST

New York
Record: 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

Amazing to think that these two teams met for the NFC Championship in 2011, but as they say, life comes at you fast. New York is coming off a humiliating 51-17 home loss to the Rams last week to fall to 0-4 SU/ATS at Met Life Stadium this season. However, the Giants haven’t been horrible on the highway as their only victory this season is at Denver, while covering three straight on the road. The Giants are making their first appearance ever at Levi’s Stadium, while traveling to the Bay Area for the first time since a 26-3 blowout of the Niners in 2012.

San Francisco
Record: 0-9 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5000/1

The 49ers acquired quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo at the trade deadline, but are in no rush to play the former Patriots’ backup. San Francisco is still searching for its first win under Kyle Shanahan after dropping a 20-10 home decision to Arizona last week. Following a 4-1 ATS run which included five losses by three points or less, the Niners have failed to score more than 10 points in each of the past three games, while losing each time by double-digits.

Best Bet: 49ers +2 ½

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:41 AM

Best Bets - Week 10 Sides
November 9, 2017

NFL Week 10 Best Bets – Sides

Week 9 was a good one for my NFL Best Bets as the decision to lay some small chalk with two teams ended up sweeping the board. Carolina and Arizona managed to hang on for outright wins and ATS covers, and I'm hoping for similar results from the two plays I've selected in Week 10.

The two best bets this week may not be the most attractive games on the board, but they do have something in common as they are both more of the mindset of fading teams that are on the verge of mutiny in 2017.

Best Bet #1: Tennessee Titans -4.5

Tennessee managed to hold on to a 23-20 win over Baltimore last week, and now they host their second straight AFC North opponent when the Bengals come into town on Sunday. This is actually the third straight game against AFC North teams for Tennessee and they've got Pittsburgh on deck, so this run of conference non-division games will go a long way in determining the Titans playoff hopes this year.

Tennessee may be 0-1-1 ATS in their first two AFC North games so far, but neither the Browns or Ravens are quite as dysfunctional at the moment as the Cincinnati Bengals are and that's saying something. The Bengals have been an utter disaster for much of the year and now they've got their All-Star WR AJ Green reenacting UFC fights on the football field. Throw on top of that a backup QB who's filed a grievance against the organization for a botched trade that would have got him out of town, a long-tenured HC who's completely lost the room and should be on his way out, and a starting QB in Andy Dalton who looks lost out on the field right now. Cincinnati is one more bad loss away from an all out mutiny within the organization, punting on 2017 and completely blowing things up to try and regain some sort of positivity within the organization going forward.

Defensively the Bengals are still pretty decent, but when the offense has scored a grand total of 7 points combined in the 2nd half of their last three games, things are bad. No halftime adjustments are being made, opposing defenses are keying on Green as Cincy's only legit weapon, and not scoring in the final 30 minutes of NFL games is how a team piles up SU and ATS losses in a hurry (Bengals are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in those three games).

Tennessee hasn't exactly been great ATS-wise of late either with a 1-3-1 ATS mark over thier last four, but only two of those games were at home and they did go 1-0-1 ATS in those contests. The Titans prefer to run the ball down opponents throats to break their will, and with the Bengals “will” fractured and hanging on by a thread already, this could finally be the game we see the entire Cincinnati team blatantly quit on Marvin Lewis. That Titans ground attack will bury the Bengals in the 2nd half here, and with Cincinnati being 4-10 ATS with Dalton under center in their last 14 games against winning teams, Bengals fans better be prepared to abandon ship come Sunday night.

Best Bet #2: San Francisco 49ers +2.5

A game between the 1-7 SU New York Giants and 0-9 SU San Francisco 49ers is going to get next to nothing in terms of viewership during the 4 pm EST slot of games. The majority of football fans/bettors will gravitate towards the Dallas/Atlanta game for the most part, and the Houston/L.A Rams to a lesser extent, but this Giants/49ers game may turn out to be the easiest to bet of the three.

New York is in a similar position to the Bengals given their disastrous year, but unlike negative Bengals fans actively waiting for the mutiny to happen in Cincinnati, Giants fans know it's already happening with their team in New York. There have been reports all week that HC Ben McAdoo has completely lost the room, the Giants are getting more and more desperate to move on from Eli Manning at QB, and it would be in the best interest of New York's long-term franchise health to “tank” away the rest of 2017. Whether that ends up happening or not remains to be seen, but you've got to figure that motivation, energy, and focus is at an all-time low for the Giants right now – oh, and the cross-country trip just to struggle doesn't exactly help morale either.

San Francisco has become a team that no better really wants a piece with their 0-9 SU start to the year (4-5 ATS), but unlike the Giants and all their dysfunction, the 49ers poor record simply comes from a lack of talent. That's not exactly what you want to hear about a football team you are going to back, but everyone in the San Francisco organization knew this year would be rough and it's just Step 1 in a full-blown rebuild. Yet, inside that locker room, the players are still a prideful bunch and have to be more enthused then they have been all year because they've got to view this game vs. New York as one they can legitimately win. Nobody wants to be remembered for being on a winless NFL team, and outside of road games against the Bears and Texans coming up, this may be San Francisco’s last legitimate shot to break that goose egg in the win column this year.

Furthermore, we can't discount the fact that oddsmakers opened up this game with San Francisco being a -1/-1.5 point home favorite. The expected plethora of action has since come on the Giants as after all, they are the team who has at least won once this year, and nobody has really wanted any piece of the 49ers. But now that this line has flipped all the way to the original home favorites catching nearly a FG, I don't care how bad these teams are, that's value I can't pass up. When you sit back and consider that the 49ers are trying to actively win (at least a couple of games in 2017) and the Giants are actively trying to lose right now, the 49ers at this underdog price appears to be the better play.

Opening up the week I was fully prepared to lay the -1 with the 49ers at home in this spot against this Giants team that's going to explode from within in the coming weeks, but now that we've got even more value on the 49ers (and a ML play) and the dysfunctional Giants are a hugely popular public side (75% on ML, 80% on spread according to VegasInsider.com), I'll be taking the points now and dabbing a bit on the 49ers ML (+125) as well.

**************************

Best Bets - Week 10 Totals
November 9, 2017

NFL Week 10 Best Bets – Totals

Last week's Totals Best Bets piece ended up splitting the board as the Bengals offensive woes in the 2nd halves of games continued, and despite even getting a bad number on the 'under' 51 in KC/Dallas – it closed at 53 – those two teams still managed to play a sub-50 point game.

Week 10 has quite a few unattractive games on the board overall, but the entire NFL season hasn't been the greatest with all the injuries teams have suffered and some very suspect QB play.

Yet, that doesn't mean we won't see a few higher scoring games this week as we've got plenty of totals in the mid-to-low 40's range, and I do believe we see at least a few of them surpass their numbers.

Best Bet #1: Cincinnati/Tennessee Over 40.5

The fact that Cincinnati has scored just a single offensive TD during the 2nd half of their last three games is astonishing and burned me last week, but if the Bengals want to save their 2017 season, this offense has got to find a way to produce.

The Bengals are a franchise that's in a bit of a dysfunctional state right now, but they did manage to catch a break when WR A.J Green was only fined and not suspended for his role in a fight last weekend. Green is by far the most explosive weapon QB Andy Dalton has at his disposal, and Dalton himself has to step up his level of play dramatically as well if the Bengals want a shot at the outright upset. But this lack of scoring in 2nd halves has to have been a focal point in the offensive meeting room, and all involved, (QB, WR, RB, Offensive Co-ordinator), should be better this week. I mean, they really can't be much worse right?

Tennessee is a team that prefers to run the ball which isn't ideal for 'over' plays, but the weakness of Cincy's defense is against the run (116.5 yards allowed/game) and the Titans should take full advantage of it. They've got two great RB's in DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry that should be able to find large holes created by their O-line. Cincy's defense has allowed at least 23 points in road contests against teams not named Cleveland, meaning the Titans should be able to put up 24+ themselves on Sunday afternoon.

That means that the Bengals will have to pull their weight to the tune of at least 17 points, and given this Week 10 game is a vital turning point in their 2017 campaign, I believe the Bengals offense steps up and performs. Cincinnati saw how Baltimore was able to put up multiple scores in a comeback effort last week against this Titans defense, and with the Bengals on a 22-8 O/U run after scoring 14 or fewer points the last time out – including 2-1 O/U this year, this game should see at least 44+ points by the time the final horn sounds.

Best Bet #2: Cleveland/Detroit Over 43.5

The winless Browns are coming off their bye week after they were spanked in London two weeks ago, giving them plenty of time to work on all the problems they've got on both sides of the ball. Cleveland's issues on more on the offensive end as they've only scored 20 or more points once all year and a stat like that speaks to just how bad their QB play has been. But if there ever was a time to put a bit of faith in a young QB like DeShone Kizer and a flailing Browns offense, it would be after a week off where practice time and the like gives them a chance to regroup.

Furthermore, what do the Browns really have to lose at this point of the year by going out and adopting a “gunslinger” mentality to try and get in the win column? Cleveland is staring another possible winless season right in the face for the 2nd straight year, and well an outright victory may not be in the cards as a double-digit road underdog this week, if their offense can at least take some strides forward and put up 20+ for the first time since Week 3, who knows what the remaining seven weeks hold in terms of potential wins for Cleveland. The organization is 3-1 O/U the last four years after their bye week, and on an 8-2 O/U run in their last 10 on the road overall.

Admittedly, most of those Browns 'overs' away from home have come thanks to the opposition piling on the points against Cleveland, and that's some good news for a Detroit team who's had red zone efficiency problems all year long. Two weeks ago against Pittsburgh those red zone issues were magnified and exposed as they cost the Lions the game, and even on MNF last week in Green Bay, nothing really operated smoothly for Detroit in that regard. Well, getting to face this Browns defense should fix some of those immediate concerns for the Lions attack, and a 4-0 O/U run going off a MNF game as an organization suggests the short week doesn't hurt Detroit in terms of points being scored one way or another.

If Cleveland does decide to adopt a more aggressive approach to try and obtain that first W, the Lions will be able to match that aggressiveness with some drives that end in TD's themselves. Something like a 30-14 Detroit win is very reasonable to project, but I do believe we see a few more points then just winning by the hook here.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:43 AM

NFL notebook: Elliott's suspension back in effect
November 9, 2017

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott had his latest legal motion denied by the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York on Thursday, meaning his six-game NFL suspension is back in effect.

Barring a last-minute maneuver, Elliott will begin his suspension when the Cowboys visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

Elliott is in line to miss at least four games barring some unforeseen development. His next court date is set for Dec. 1, after the NFL Players Association requested an expedited appeal of Thursday's decision.

Elliott's suspension was immediately reinstated upon the court's ruling.

If the six-game suspension sticks, Elliott will next be eligible to play against the Seattle Seahawks on Dec. 24.

Elliott ranks second in the NFL with 783 rushing yards. He led the league with 1,631 last season as a rookie.

--The Indianapolis Colts released two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Vontae Davis, the team announced.

The move comes one day after multiple outlets reported that Davis would have season-ending groin surgery. The 29-year-old reportedly had been seeking additional medical opinions before accepting the decision to have surgery.

Also, the Colts promoted receiver Matt Hazel to the 53-man roster from the practice squad.

--The New England Patriots claimed tight end Martellus Bennett off waivers, the team announced. The move came one day after Bennett was waived by the Green Bay Packers.

Bennett, who was released by Green Bay with the designation that he failed to disclose a physical condition, rejoins the team with which he won a Super Bowl ring last season.

--The Philadelphia Eagles signed defensive tackle Tim Jernigan to a four-year contract extension, the team announced.

The deal is worth $48 million, including $26 million guaranteed, according to ESPN.

--Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston was fined $12,154 for his role during an altercation in Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints.

Winston's tap on the helmet of Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore instigated an incident in which Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans came running over and drilled the rookie in the back. Evans received a one-game suspension and a $40,588 fine earlier this week.

Winston's action came after he had left the game with an injury to his passing shoulder that is expected to sideline him for at least two games.

--Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green said he does not plan to appeal the reported $42,000 fine he received from the NFL for punching Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

--Detroit Lions right guard T.J. Lang has entered the NFL's concussion protocol, coach Jim Caldwell announced.

Lang's concussion symptoms developed during practice on Wednesday, two days removed from the Lions' 30-17 win over his former team, the Green Bay Packers.

The concussion puts Lang's availability for Sunday's matchup against the Cleveland Browns (0-8) in jeopardy.

--New Orleans Saints cornerback Delvin Breaux will remain on injured reserve for the rest of the season following a setback sustained in his recovery from a broken fibula, coach Sean Payton announced.

Breaux had been designated to return from the injury, which he sustained in training camp. He will be a restricted free agent next season.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-10-2017, 02:45 AM

NFL HALFWAY: Strong as ever, kickers remain a key to success
November 9, 2017

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP) When the Minnesota Vikings signed Kai Forbath last season, he'd gone 10+ months without kicking in a meaningful game.

Having emerged as the most viable candidate from the tryout group assembled amid Blair Walsh's persistent struggles, Forbath was the favored option when the Vikings made the change. He'd diligently kept up his kicking and training during the hiatus, of course, but there was no way he could actually create game-like atmospheres and conditions in preparation for the return to live action.

Forbath stepped in and performed like he'd never missed a turn. He's not the only one in the NFL fraternity who has done so.

''It's tough coming straight in and having to play a few days after your tryout,'' Forbath said, ''but that's part of the job.''

In 15 games for the Vikings since his arrival, Forbath has made all but one of his 37 field goal attempts. That's the best rate in the league over that span.

''Fortunately for me it wasn't my first time doing that, so I had a little experience coming in and doing it right away,'' said Forbath, who'd been released by Washington after the first game of the 2015 season before joining New Orleans six weeks later.

Forgetting for a moment the perplexing recurrence of missed extra points, Forbath has been an unquestionable success coming straight from the street. Rookie Harrison Butker has also filled in seamlessly for AFC West leader Kansas City, which lost Cairo Santos to groin trouble three games in. Another rookie, Jake Elliott, has been holding his own for NFL-best Philadelphia after a hip injury waylaid Caleb Sturgis in the season opener. The 35-year-old Mike Nugent has fared well over the last two games for Dallas after stalwart Dan Bailey hurt his groin.

''Those guys are always working out, always prepared, always ready for any type of workout that could help them make a team down the line,'' Vikings special teams coordinator Mike Priefer said. ''You can tell the guys, when they come to workouts, if they haven't been working out a lot lately because they just don't go out and perform very well. Especially kicking and punting, even snapping, too: It's like golf. It's like any kind of specialty type of sport. You've got to do it a lot. You have to continually work on that if you're going to be good at. Especially for a workout: You might get called on a Monday for a workout on Tuesday.''

Incumbents around the league have been thriving, too. Aside from the longer 33-yard distance for extra points, there's never been a better time in NFL history to be a kicker. There are so many artificial surfaces in the NFL's stadiums and lifelong opportunity to hone their craft and learn the best techniques.

''The science of it has changed a lot. When these older guys were kicking back in the day, they were kicking the ball just like a soccer ball. Now guys are going to camps when they're young,'' Forbath said. ''It has gotten pretty technical.''

According to research by SportRadar, the league-wide field goal rate is 83.6 percent. That's slightly down from the 2013 peak, which was 86.5 percent, but it's a marked improvement from 15 years ago, when NFL kickers combined to make 77.5 percent of their field goals.

From long range, they're as on-target as ever. The league-wide rate from 50-plus yards is 69 percent, which is on pace to establish an NFL record. In 2013, that number was 67.1 percent. In 2002? Only 51.8 percent of 50-plus yard attempts were successful.

Forbath and Elliott are two of six kickers in the league this season who have made four or more 50-yarders.

According to the Pro Football Reference database , the five most accurate field goal kickers in league history are all active: Bailey, Baltimore's Justin Tucker, Forbath, Buffalo's Steven Hauschka, and New England's Stephen Gostkowski.

That would explain why Gostkowski was so upset about missing two of six field goal tries in his team's last game, despite a victory.

''I get mad. It's going to bother me for a week, probably two weeks, but that's just part of the game,'' Gostkowski said. ''If you can't deal with it, then you probably shouldn't be here.''

Keeping an even keel amid the seven missed extra points in 30 attempts for the Vikings has helped Forbath, for sure. He's 21 for 22 on field goals, tied for the second-most makes in the NFL.

''He went through his up and downs in his career early and seems to have found his groove here,'' Vikings general manager Rick Spielman said. ''It's a pretty good, comforting feeling to know that when your guy goes out there to kick the field goals that he's got a 97 percent chance of making it.''

**StarDust Bum** · 11-11-2017, 03:49 AM

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
November 10, 2017

Sharp action has jumped on a couple sides Las Vegas sports books will eventually need in Sunday's Week 10 NFL action. There are also a few large favorites involving popular public teams the books know they're going to have beat down to have a winning day.

"This one is the most fun of the week," an excited Jason Simbal said Friday in regards to booking Sunday's card for his seven CG Technology sports books. "All the sharps are on the Browns. They took +12.5, +12, and then +11.5 last night -- all max bets. I'm going to leave it at (Lions) -11 for now and see where it takes us because I know the majority of the public action this week isn't taking the Browns."

The Detroit Lions (4-4) are one of three double-digit favorites Sunday which causes a danger alert for the sports books because large money-line parlays and teasers will create some major risk. Pittsburgh is -10 at Indianapolis and the Los Angeles Rams are 12-point home favorites over quarterback Tom Savage and the Texans. Watching Houston's offense without DeShaun Watson behind center is eye opening to just how good Watson was as a rookie.

The winless Browns (0-8) have gone 2-6 against the spread this season. In their last 16 road games, the Browns have gone an ugly 3-12-1 ATS. But still, inflated lines on the Browns opponents attract the wise guys tpo Cleveland. The Lions have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 and come off a Monday night win at Green Bay, which snapped a three-game losing skid.

The popular Steelers have taken 87 percent of the cash wagered on the game at William Hill sports books through Thursday night. The 3-6 Colts have covered their last two and five of nine this season. Pittsburgh (6-2) comes off a bye and have won and covered their last three with an attacking defense that is allowing just 16.4 points per game which has helped them become the best 'under' team (7-1) in the NFL. Despite the Steelers total trend, this total has moved up from 43.5 to 45.

Other one-sided tickets written games at William Hill's 107 sports books across Nevada include the Bears (80%) at home against the Packers, Jets (91%) at Tampa Bay, Rams (87%) at home against Houston, Cowboys (89%) at Atlanta and Patriots (84%) at Denver.

The most bet game of the week so far is also the Sunday Night Football game, which means the result of the game will probably dictate whether or not the books win on Sunday.

"The biggest public play of the week has been the Patriots at Denver," said Simbal, who has the Patriots -7 -120. "It's been all Pats and I don't think that is going to change. We have a ticket ratio on them already at 8.8-to-1 and that figure will rise over the weekend.

"While we haven't had a lot of tickets written on the Broncos, the bets that did come on them were all sharp guys taking +7.5," he explained. "There were four of them."

Simbal also said that despite the large Broncos (3-5) money, he'll still be rooting for Denver to cover or win because the parlay liability from the first 11 games will have the majority of the payout tickets tied to the Patriots (6-2). The combination of the three double-digit favorites and the Patriots covering would be a crushing four-bagger on all payout charts (teasers, parlays, money-line parlays, parlay cards).

"Yeah, we're going to need the dog to cover a couple those," Simbal said, despite already having large money on the Browns and Patriots.

There's one other game the sharps jumped at during the week. It's the battle for the overall No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft with the 1-7 New York Giants visiting the 0-9 San Francisco 49ers. Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen? I don't know if there's a loser in either selection, so let's see both sides play the game to win.

"They've (sharps) pushed the Giants up -2.5 -120 after we opened the 49ers -1," said Simbal, CG's VP of risk management. "We took max bets at Giants +1, pick, and then we went to Giants -2 and they laid -2 and -2.5, which is where we're at now, -120."

Rookie QB C.J. Beathard is expected to start again for the 49ers while new acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo will be on the sideline in uniform and ready to go if needed. The Giants have lost and failed to cover their last two -- both at home -- following their only win at Denver. The 49ers have covered only twice in their last 11 home games.

Simbal also said his books took some sharp action on the Jets (4-5) at Tampa Bay (2-6). They opened the Bucs -1.5 and the number ran to Jets being -2.5. The Bucs are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback for the injured Jameis Winston. They've gone a disappointing 1-6-1 ATS so far. The Jets have been one of the best cover teams in the league at 6-2-1 ATS. Jets QB Josh McCown has completed 70.4 percent of his passes this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-12-2017, 12:18 PM

Gridiron Angles - Week 10
November 11, 2017

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Falcons are 10-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 22, 2002 as a favorite coming off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Giants are 0-11 ATS (-15.2 ppg) since December 18, 2011 off a game as a dog of more than three points where they allowed at least 30 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 0-7 OU (-11.6 ppg) since Nov 30, 2014 on the road when Tom Brady threw at least 40 passes last game.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams which benefited from at least 15 penalties last game are 35-45-3 ATS. Active against NY Giants.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Packers are 11-0 OU (11.7 ppg) since November 1992 off a game as a home dog where they scored fewer points than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 0-13 OU (-9.7 ppg) since December 2012 on the road off a game as a favorite where they gained at least 400 total yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 13-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) as a dog after they had more third down conversions than punts last game.

Announcement

The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment