The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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NFL notebook: Owners, players finding the same page
October 18, 2017

It appears as if the main thing to come out of Tuesday's meeting between NFL players and owners was mutual respect.

Many owners acknowledged the players' right to protest and what they are protesting about, and seem willing to effect change in whatever form that may take in their respective communities. The players seemed appeased by having the owners at least hear them out on these topics, and in the owners' willingness to continue the conversation in later meetings.

Commissioner Roger Goodell, at the conclusion of the league's fall meetings Wednesday afternoon, reiterated his stance that he hopes every player will stand for the national anthem. League bylaws state players "should" stand for the anthem, but no mandate to do so will be put into place, Goodell said Wednesday.

President Donald Trump is unhappy with that news. Early Wednesday morning, he tweeted, "The NFL has decided that it will not force players to stand for the playing of our National Anthem. Total disrespect for our great country!"

San Francisco 49ers owner Jed York said Tuesday the owners and players should "block out the noise" coming from the President so that they can focus on the issues, but some fans agree with Trump and are boycotting NFL games.

--The NFL announced that the Dallas Cowboys will host next year's draft with all three days taking place at AT&T Stadium.

The 2018 NFL Draft will be held April 26-28 at the Cowboys' stadium in Arlington, Texas, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell announced Wednesday at the owners meetings in New York. It will be the first time the event will take place inside an NFL stadium.

The Cowboys pushed for the 2018 draft to be held at both AT&T Stadium and The Star, the team's new training facility in Frisco.

--Dallas Cowboys star running back Ezekiel Elliott said he appreciates the opportunity to return to the field after a New York federal judge granted him a temporary restraining order on his six-game suspension over domestic violence allegations.

The 22-year-old Elliott was not allowed to be at The Star, the Cowboys' team headquarters, until a U.S. district judge in New York made his ruling Tuesday night

On Wednesday, the Elliott went through practice with his teammates in preparation for Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara, Calif.

--Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Chris Long announced he is donating the rest of his 2017 salary to increase educational equality.

Long already donated his first six game checks this season to fund two scholarships for students in his hometown of Charlottesville, Va. Long and his wife, Megan, made that decision last month after a series of white supremacist rallies in his hometown led to violence in the streets in August.

Long, 32, is now donating his remaining 10 game checks this season to four organizations by launching the "Pledge 10 for Tomorrow" campaign.

Those four organizations are based in Philadelphia, Boston and St. Louis, the three cities he played for during his NFL career.

--The San Francisco 49ers will pay tribute to Dwight Clark, known for making "The Catch" from Joe Montana in one of the most iconic plays in NFL history.

The organization announced Wednesday that "Dwight Clark Day" at Levi's Stadium which will take place on Sunday when the 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys.

In March, the 60-year-old Clark said in a statement he is battling amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS.

A special halftime presentation will feature a tribute to the 49ers' 1981 championship team and the historic moments that led to their Super Bowl victory.

--Arizona Cardinals running back Adrian Peterson was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after an impressive debut with his new team.

Peterson, who was acquired from the New Orleans Saints last week, rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries in the Cardinals' 38-33 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. This is the 32-year-old Peterson's eighth career NFC offensive award.

The NFL also announced Wednesday that Pittsburgh Steelers Le'Veon Bell earned the AFC offensive honor in Week 6 after he ran for 179 yards and a touchdown in the Steelers' 19-13 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. He added three receptions for 12 yards for a total of 191 yards from scrimmage.

--The Cleveland Browns are going back to rookie DeShone Kizer at quarterback.

Kizer, who started the first five games, will return to the top spot after watching from the sidelines while Kevin Hogan threw for 130 yards and three interceptions in a 33-17 loss to Houston last week. Coach Hue Jackson wanted Kizer to get a different perspective by sitting out.

"I think for (Kizer), he will be a little bit more team-protecting in situational football things," Jackson said Monday, before the decision was announced. "I think he will understand that better and really what it does to your team as you are in those situations.

--Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is being shut down due to soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder.

Luck, who has yet to take a snap this season and only recently returned to practice, is without a timetable for his return.

"The doctors and the trainers have decided to give him a cortisone shot to kind of take away some of that inflammation that's been happening," Colts general manager Chris Ballard told reporters. "He'll continue to rehab. We're just going to shut down the throwing right now to get this thing calmed back down."

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Thursday’s six-pack

NFL trends with Week 7 upon us……..

— Chiefs covered 7 of last 9 games as a favorite.

— Colts covered 12 of last 14 tries as a home underdog.

— Cleveland is 3-13 vs spread in its last 16 games.

— Panthers are 1-6-1 in last 8 tries as a road favorite.

— Dallas is 9-3 vs spread in its last 12 post-bye games.

— Atlanta is 8-1 in its last 9 games as a road underdog.

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NFL

Thursday, October 19

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Chiefs at Raiders
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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3, 46.5)

The Oakland Raiders were a trendy preseason choice to wind up in the conference championship game, but they are in desperate need of a victory to keep from falling out of contention in the AFC West. Riding a four-game losing streak, the struggling Raiders face a daunting task when they host the division-leading Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night.

Oakland plugged a void this week with the signing of four-time All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman, a tackling machine who moves across the Bay after he was released by the San Francisco 49ers on Friday. "A lot of experience, a lot of leadership, a lot of physicality," star outside linebacker Khalil Mack said of Bowman. "You're talking about a guy that, all you've got to do is turn the ball back to him. He's going to be there. And that's what we're ready to do." Kansas City became the last team in the NFL to lose, dropping a 19-13 decision at home to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but it has won five in a row against the Raiders. I think the positive is we've got a short week to try to get this bounce back and get this taste out of our mouth, if there is a positive," Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith said.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-4.5) - Raiders (0) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -1.5

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point road favorites and that number has been bet up to the key number of 3. The total hit betting boards at 47.5 and has been dropped a full point to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Chiefs - DB S. Terrell (Probable, Concussion), WR T. Hill (Probable, Upper Body), OL L. Duvernay-Tardif (Questionable, Knee), RB C. West (Questionable, Concussion), WR A. Wilson (Doubful, Knee), OL P. Ehinger (Out Indefinitely, Knee), OL M. Morse (Out Indefinitely, Foot), WR C. Conley (I-R, Achilles), LB D. Nicolas (Questionable, Knee), LB T. Hali (Questionable, Knee), DB S. Nelson (Out, Abdominal), K C. Santos (Out, Groin), DB E. Berry (I-R, Achilles), RB S. Ware (I-R, Knee), DB A. Lampkin (I-R, Knee).

Raiders - FB J. Olawale (Probable, Concussion), LB M. Lee (Questionable, Ankle), LB C. James (Questionable, Knee), OL M. Newhouse (Questionable, Foot), G G. Jackson (Questionable, Foot), LB N. Morrow (Questionable, Ankle), TE L. Smith (Questionable, Knee), CB G. Conley (Doubful, Shin), DT D. Latham (Out, Suspension), LB A. Smith (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), S O. Melifonwu (Out, Knee), CB A. Hamilton (Out, Knee), G D. Kirkland (Out, Leg), K S. Janikowski (Out, Back).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Kansas City averaged nearly 33 points through its first five victories, but its offense was bottled up while its 27th-ranked run defense was shredded for 194 yards. Kareem Hunt rushed for a season-low 21 yards but had five receptions for 89 yards to become the first rookie in league history to amass at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his team’s first six games. Multi-threat receiver Tyreek Hill injured his neck in Sunday's game and it was feared he might have a concussion, but the team pronounced him good to go. Smith threw for 246 yards and a TD last week, failing to post a 100-plus passer rating for the first time.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U): Derek Carr returned to the lineup after missing one game with a fractured bone in his back, but had another mediocre game and has four interceptions in his past three contests after tossing only six picks in the entire 2016 season. The vertical passing game has been a staple in Oakland since the franchise's inception, but deep threat Amari Cooper has a combined nine receptions for 51 yards during the four-game skid. Marshawn Lynch has not provided the expect jolt to the ground game, rushing for two TDs and an averaging 42.8 yards rushing. Only three teams in the league have fewer than the Raiders' 11 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.
* Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Chiefs' last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 5-0 in Raiders' last 5 vs. AFC West.
* Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Oakland.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road favorite Chiefs at a rate of 72 percent and the Under is picking up 52 percent of the totals wagers.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............25 - 23 - 1....52.08%....-1.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00........+10.00

10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50........-2.50

10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00.......+10.00

10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00.........+10.00

10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50

10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00

10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50

10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals.........................10 - 7 - 1............+ 11.50...........7 - 7............-3.50................+10.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 2..................................-10.00
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Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00

Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 0 .................................+12.50


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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 19

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

KC at OAK 08:25 PM

KC -3.0

U 46.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Derek Carr, Raiders stun Chiefs in amazing comeback

What a comeback! Derek Carr found Michael Crabtree in the end zone after time already expired in the fourth quarter to lead the Raiders to a spectacular 31-30 comeback win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Here's what we learned from the game:

1. Oakland was one wild final drive away from watching its season officially go up in flames. Thanks to a pair of Jared Cook catches and a great rollout and dart fired from Derek Carr to Michael Crabtree in the end zone after time had already expired in the fourth quarter, Oakland's faithful can remain excited about this team's playoff chances. The Raiders' final drive wasn't pretty, but instead matched much of the night for its offense, which still has plenty of issues. Carr needed all four downs near midfield to keep the team alive on a completion to Cook, and then turned to the tight end to make another great catch on third-and-10 to put Oakland inside Kansas City's 5. Unlike Detroit earlier this season, Oakland survived the 10-second runoff to get one more shot at the end zone, which turned into four thanks to penalties, with the final attempt being the one that tied the game.

It was exciting, it made for great television, but it is far from encouraging for an Oakland team that still has plenty of kinks to work out in the coming week. Most important in this moment and time, though, is that it keeps the Raiders out of the wasteland that is 2-5, which keeps them alive.

2. Alex Smith is blemish-free through seven games. We're at 228 pass attempts and the quarterback still hasn't thrown an interception -- though he should have:

Smith is just 130 more interception-free attempts from tying Tom Brady's record, set in the final weeks of the 2010 season. He's done just about as much as he could through seven games to have his team emerge undefeated, but two straight contests in less than a week's time have his team suddenly on a two-game skid. One of the losses came against Pittsburgh, the lone team to have Kansas City's number in the last year and change, and this second required all kinds of shenanigans for it to not end in the Chiefs' favor. There is one mildly alarming note, though: Kansas City's defense played well enough to win, forcing Oakland into a three-and-out deep in its own territory inside the final five minutes, but the Chiefs' offense didn't hold up its end of the deal. The one sack Kansas City allowed all night -- and make no mistake, Khalil Mack alone caused plenty of headaches for their tackles in pass protection -- buried the Chiefs and forced them to punt it back to the Raiders, setting up the game-winning drive. As an offense, you have to salt away the win just by moving the chains in that situation.

3. The numbers were pretty similar between Smith (25-of-36 passing, 342 yards, three touchdowns) and Carr (29-of-52 passing, 417 yards, three touchdowns), but the trajectories of their seasons couldn't be more different. Smith has had Kansas City firing on all cylinders, and for spaces in time on Thursday night, that was again the case. His 64-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill was something we'd grown accustomed to seeing last season and early this year and was a welcome return for the Chiefs, as was the 63-yard touchdown pass to Wilson, even if it should have been intercepted. Oakland has slogged through the first six weeks of the season, both with and without Carr. Last week's loss to the Chargers was just the latest example of the frustration surrounding the Raiders' offense, which was visibly affected by less-than-stellar play from Carr. But on Thursday night, his deep shots panned out in his favor (Amari Cooper's first score came with plenty of initiated contact) most times, especially when needed most. This isn't to say everything is suddenly fine in Oakland -- but it's better than the alternative.

4. For as flashy as Oakland's offense was in its two touchdown passes to Cooper, the majority of the rest of its night was all too familiar. Too often, the Raiders worked themselves into third-and-long situations, often brought on by penalties in what was a chippy affair. It was never more apparent than when Oakland regained possession inside its own 10 and promptly went three-and-out, punctuated by Carr throwing a short pass to Amari Cooper with Cordarrelle Patterson running almost the exact same route from almost the exact same starting point on the field. That kind of mistake -- it would be shocking if that play was designed as it was ultimately executed -- was Oakland's offense in a nutshell. Even the winning drive felt muddied.

5. Marshawn Lynch was ejected, but quite frankly, that didn't matter much anyway. As some of us have already known, Oakland's best back isn't Lynch -- it's Jalen Richard. The Raiders started to show they also know this, giving Richard nine carries for 31 yards and targeting him four times for four catches and 45 yards, and doing almost the exact same thing with DeAndre Washington (nine carries, 33 yards; three receptions on four targets, seven yards). The two as a combo work better than Lynch, which at this point is evident to most anyone who watches the Raiders. Though Oakland could have used him on the first of the final plays inside Kansas City's 5, Lynch's ejection only expedited the inevitable.

6. It might not help Raider Nation sleep at night, but Thursday night was just the latest example of how freakishly dominant Khalil Mack is. The linebacker didn't record a sack, but tormented Kansas City's left and right tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, for much of the night. A one-armed rush threw Fisher off balance and landed him on his back, while Schwartz didn't fare much better. Combined with Bruce Irvin, Mack alone (and the addition of NaVorro Bowman, who tied for the team lead in tackles with six) is reason to be encouraged about the Oakland defense.

7. Even with the two-game losing streak, there isn't much to panic about for the Chiefs, unless they run into a team built on passing prowess. Without Eric Berry, Kansas City's secondary has showed some issues, especially in relying on Terrance Mitchell, who was beaten a handful of times on sideline-destined routes. This point is not meant to closely critique any individual player, because Kansas City's defense still pressured Carr plenty and stood firm more often than not. That final drive became more difficult to stop with each play, especially with the repeated shots at the end zone. You can only keep a hungry group on the doorstep for so long before they barge their way in.

8. The lone reason to truly be discouraged is Kansas City's missed opportunity to take a vice grip on the AFC West. Had the Chiefs won, they would have improved to 6-1, a full three wins ahead of Denver with the Broncos' Week 7 game yet to be played, while sending Oakland to the cellar at 2-5. Instead, they're at 5-2, and can be ahead of Denver by as little as half a game should the Broncos beat the Chargers on Sunday. Another opportunity awaits Kansas City next week in a home game against Denver, which for the Chiefs will be an agonizing, 11-day wait from now.

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Marshawn Lynch tossed for pushing official
October 19, 2017

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Oakland Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch was ejected Thursday night after shoving an official when he ran onto the field during a scuffle against the Kansas City Chiefs.

It all started when Oakland quarterback Derek Carr was hit late on a run by Kansas City's Marcus Peters midway through the second quarter. Raiders offensive linemen Kelechi Osemele and Donald Penn immediately confronted Peters.

Lynch, who is close friends with his fellow Oakland native Peters, then sprinted onto the field from the bench to join the fray. Line judge Julian Mapp tried to break up the fight but Lynch pushed him and grabbed his jersey.

Peters was called for a personal foul for the late hit. Lynch got a personal foul and was ejected for making contact with the official.

Lynch finished the game with two carries for 9 yards.

Lynch came out of retirement this season and was traded from Seattle to the Raiders. Lynch said he wanted to make a comeback so he could give something back to his hometown of Oakland before the Raiders move to Las Vegas in 2020.

Lynch has rushed for 266 yards and two touchdowns in seven games.

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Raiders score on final play to beat Chiefs 31-30
October 19, 2017

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Derek Carr threw a 2-yard touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree on the final play after the game was extended by two straight defensive holding calls and the Oakland Raiders snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-30 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night.

With their season on the line following the recent slump, Carr led an 85-yard touchdown drive in the final 2:25 to give the Raiders (3-4) the thrilling comeback win in a game they trailed by nine points heading into the fourth quarter.

Carr finished 29 for 52 for 417 yards and three touchdowns, with Amari Cooper catching 11 passes for 210 yards and two of the scores.

Alex Smith threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns but it wasn't enough for the Chiefs (5-2). They lost consecutive games for the first time since Oct. 11-18, 2015, and had their 12-game winning streak in the AFC West snapped in a thrilling finish.

The Raiders had an apparent go-ahead touchdown pass to Jared Cook with 18 seconds left overturned when replay ruled he was down at the 1. An offensive pass interference on Michael Crabtree wiped another touchdown on the next play.

But holding calls on Ron Parker and Eric Murray set the stage for the final play. Carr hit Crabtree in the front corner of the end zone to tie it at 30. Giorgio Tavecchio won it with the extra point, setting off a celebration on a wild night that included Oakland running back Marshawn Lynch getting ejected in the second quarter for shoving an official.

HOT TEMPERS: The game took an odd turn midway through the second quarter after Kansas City's Marcus Peters hit Carr late, angering the Raiders. Offensive linemen Kelechi Osemele and Donald Penn confronted Peters and Lynch sprinted off the Oakland sideline to join the fray. Lynch, a close friend of Peters, ended up shoving line judge Julian Mapp and getting ejected . Peters also was called for a personal foul on the play.

LONG DRIVE: After Marquette King pinned the Chiefs at their own 1 with a perfect punt early in the second quarter, Kansas City needed little time to turn the momentum. Smith hit Demarcus Robinson on a 33-yard pass on the first play of the drive. After a short run, Tyreek Hill beat David Amerson for a 64-yard touchdown pass that gave the Chiefs their first 99-yard drive since doing it Dec. 3, 2006, against Cleveland.

DEEP CONNECTION: Carr had not connected on a single deep ball to Amari Cooper all season before the two teamed twice for long TDs in the opening quarter. On the first, Cooper appeared to push Terrance Mitchell but the officials picked up the flag and gave Cooper the 38-yard TD . Later in the quarter Carr and Cooper connected on a 45-yard score, making Cooper the first Raiders receiver with two TD catches in the first quarter since Mervyn Fernandez in 1989.

KICKING WOES: The Raiders were hurt last week when a bad snap by Jon Condo led to a missed extra point by Giorgio Tavecchio in a 17-16 loss to the Chargers. That was Tavecchio's first missed kick of any kind this season but he then had a 53-yarder blocked and missed a 45-yarder wide left in the second quarter. Tavecchio also had a false start on an extra point in the third quarter.

UP NEXT

Chiefs: Host Denver on Oct. 30.

Raiders: Visit Buffalo on Oct. 29.

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Friday’s six-pack

More NFL trends with Week 7 upon us……..

— Saints are 11-2 vs spread in last 13 games away from home.

— Minnesota is 15-5 vs spread in last 20 home games.

— 49ers covered six of their last eight games.

— Miami is 12-32-1 in last 45 games as a home favorite.

— Washington is 16-8 vs spread in its last 24 games.

— Buffalo is 8-4 vs spread coming off its last 12 byes.

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Friday’s List of 13: Things I’m looking for this weekend

13) How tired are the Falcons of hearing about last year’s Super Bowl? Now they get to visit Foxboro the week after blowing a 17-0 halftime lead to Miami. Matt Ryan went to Boston College, so a homecoming of sorts for him.

12) Michigan beat Penn State 49-10 last year; Wolverines are 5-1, but it is a shaky 5-1 and they are playing a backup QB- they needed OT to beat Indiana last week.

11) Brett Hundley gets his first NFL start at home against New Orleans; no pressure, replacing Aaron Rodgers �� Saints are actually a road favorite in this game.

10) Arizona Wildcats ran ball for 882 yards in their last two games; now they’re a road favorite at Cal— Golden Bears upset Washington State last week. Interesting game.

9) First round of rematches this weekend, three of them. Can the Jets sweep Miami? Eagles sweep Washington? Denver sweep the Chargers?

8) USC-Notre Dame is a stellar primetime game Saturday night. Trojans lost their last two visits to South Bend.

7) Cardinals-Rams in England is a big game in NFC West; Adrian Peterson added a running element to the Arizona offense last week. Both teams are a LONG way from home.

6) Think the boosters in Knoxville are happy that Tennessee is a 35-point underdog this week in Tuscaloosa? Hopefully Butch Jones has his resume updated, because he is going to need a job in a few weeks. His bank account will be healthy, though.

5) Giants got their first win last week, now Seattle visits Swamp Stadium coming off its bye. Giants’ young WR’s will have hard time getting open against a stingy Seahawk defense.

4) Texas is 3-3, losing to USC/Oklahoma by total of 8 points; now Oklahoma State comes calling, another tough game. State scored 48 ppg in winning its first three road games this year.

3) Jacksonville is +11 in turnovers in its wins, -1 in its losses; they have a very winnable game in Indy against a Colt team that might be without Andrew Luck for the whole season now. Jacoby Brissett hasn’t played badly, but Indy has been outscored 85-22 in the 4th quarter this year.

2) Louisville beat Florida State 63-20 LY, but Cardinals lost their last two games, allowing 84 points. Seminoles are struggling (2-3) with a true freshman QB who is skinny as hell- their only two wins are over Wake Forest/Duke.

1) Trap game for the Titans, a road game after a Monday night win. Winless Browns are going back to DeShone Kizer at QB; maybe they should’ve drafted Deshaun Watson. Ya think?

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Best Bets - Week 7 Totals
October 19, 2017


NFL Week 7 Best Bets – Totals

We've already hit Week 7 of the NFL season and the parity throughout the league continues to be the theme of 2017. Big underdogs continue to pull off outright upsets (NYG last week) and it's the first in quite some time that no NFL team remains unbeaten this early in the year.

Results like those have made 2017 a good year for sportsbooks overall – much needed after 2016 was a rough one for sportsbooks – and it makes handicapping the NFL – already the sharpest lines of any sport – that much tougher.

Yet, with a multitude of teams approaching their bye weeks – and more teams returning from a week of rest – this is the part of the year where situational handicapping can help you stay ahead of the oddsmakers as much as possible. I'm looking to do that this week with these two total plays that appear to be strongly overlooked by bettors this week.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #1: Dallas/San Francisco Under 47

Dallas is one of those teams coming off their bye week and they are glad they'll have RB Ezekiel Elliott in the lineup for this one. Given the uncertain status of Elliott's future in the lineup long term, bettors should expect the Cowboys to feed him the ball early and often here. San Francisco has allowed 112.8 rushing yards per game and if Elliott gets it going early and the Cowboys are looking to salt away the game late, all of that running helps shorten the game and will be beneficial for this 'under' play.


On the flip side, San Francisco won't be shy about running the ball either as they turn to rookie QB C.J Beathard as their starter. A young QB's best friend in this league is a solid running game and with Dallas actually worse against the run then the 49ers are (118 yards allowed per game), San Fran won't have a problem handing the ball off more often than not. They didn't have much success with it last week against Washington, but they are 9-20 O/U after rushing for less than 90 yards last time out, and 18 of their past 25 games at home have cashed 'under' tickets.

Finally, with both teams sporting a 3-1 O/U mark in their last four games respectively, it's not surprising to see more than 90% of the action on this total going 'over' the number according to VegasInsider.com. But with San Fran being 3-8 O/U in their last 11 at home against non-division foes, and Dallas being 3-9-1 O/U in their last 13 against teams from the NFC West, this number of 47 might be a shade too high. After all, last year these two teams played in San Francisco with a total of 44.5 and the game finished 24-17 in the Cowboys favor. Ezekiel Elliott rushed four 138 yards on 23 carries that day, as the Cowboys controlled the time of possession (36 minutes) and just suffocated the life out of the game.

I'm expecting a similar style of game this year as well and strongly believe the number should be around that same 44.5 to 45 range. With a few points of value because of that projection and the majority of bettors already going the other way – which by the way the opening total hasn't moved despite the overwhelming 'over' action – I've got no problem backing a lower-scoring game here.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #2: Seattle/NYG Over 40

Like the Cowboys, Seattle is on the road this week after a week of rest and they are up against a New York Giants team that surprised the entire NFL world – and ruined a lot of people's survivor pool hopes – by upsetting the Broncos on SNF in relatively dominant fashion. The Giants were left for dead after Week 5 with all the injuries they suffered and their 0-5 SU record, but HC Ben McAdoo gave up play-calling duties and New York's decimated offense found some success. The Giants defense picked up a lot of the slack as well last week, but I wouldn't be so confident that defense will be able to match their effort in terms of production and intensity this week vs. Seattle.
This is also another game where VegasInsider.com's numbers show about 90% of the action so far on one side of the total, but this time all that love is for the 'under.' Seattle's defense is a brand that speaks for itself, and the way the Giants defense played under the national spotlight is something many aren't going to be forgetting about.

However, this total has actually moved up 1.5 points since opening at 38.5 in lieu of all that 'under' action and I have got to agree with a move like that. Seattle tends to bring the offense out after a week off as the organization is 12-3 O/U after a bye week, and five of their last six against the Giants have cashed 'over' tickets with an average score of 51.5 points. Even if these teams don't reach that average point total, we've still got more than 10 points to work with as a margin of error.

Finally, while the Giants banged up offense may be one many bettors aren't ready to trust and for good reason, this is still a team that's scored 20+ points four weeks in a row and have a 6-2 O/U run going after allowing 14 or fewer points the week prior. New York should be more willing to take shots down the field being at home this week to try and pull off the upset, and a 4-1 O/U run at home against a winning team suggests that will be part of their gameplan.

Seattle won't be shy about putting up points against a unit, that although looked good a week ago, has still given up 24 + in four of six games this year. The Seahawks have also had two weeks to prepare for how to attack this New York unit, and they are 5-0 O/U themselves after allowing 14 or fewer points last time out.

With the reverse line move we've already seen on this game and all the “surprising” results we've already seen in the NFL this year, this 'over' play is very strong in my opinion. A 23-20 type game is definitely within the realm of possibilities here, as a high-scoring game here could be just another one of the 2017 NFL contests that get lumped into the category of completely surprising results this year.

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Pick Six - Week 7
October 19, 2017

Week 7 Record: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
Overall Record: 18-18 SU, 17-19 ATS

Ravens at Vikings (-5 ½, 39 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore
Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Ravens have failed to capitalize off their 2-0 start by dropping three of their last four games, including a 27-24 overtime setback to the Bears last Sunday. Since shutting out the Bengals in the season opener, Baltimore has been outgained in the yardage category in four of the past five games, while dropping their last two contests at M&T Bank Stadium. The last time the Ravens hooked up with the Vikings, Baltimore held off Minnesota, 29-26 in 2013 as the two teams combined for 42 fourth quarter points after scoring only 13 points through the first three quarters.

Minnesota
Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Vikings cruised past the Packers after Aaron Rodgers suffered a shoulder injury in the first quarter as Minnesota grabbed a 23-10 victory as three-point underdogs. Minnesota picked up its second straight divisional victory after losing its NFC North opener to Detroit in Week 4. The defense continues to carry the Vikings as they have allowed 17 points or fewer in four straight contests, while outgaining their opponents in each game during this stretch. Minnesota has slumped to a 4-6 ATS record in its past 10 games in the favorite role since last October.

Best Bet: Vikings -5 ½

Jets at Dolphins (-3, 38 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

New York
Record: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Jets were on their way to a fourth straight victory, but New York couldn’t hold onto a 14-0 lead against New England in a 24-17 home defeat. New York managed to cash as a nine-point underdog to pick up its fourth consecutive ATS win, but the Jets’ offense has scored 20 points or fewer in regulation in all six games this season. The Jets seek the season sweep of the Dolphins after routing Miami as 5 ½-point ‘dogs in Week 3 by a 20-6 count to avenge a pair of losses to Miami in 2016.

Miami
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 5-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Dolphins scored 22 points in a 14-quarter span through a pair of losses to the Jets and Saints, a victory over the Titans, and the first half against the Falcons. However, Miami dug deep in the second half last week against the defending NFC champions to outscore Atlanta, 20-0 and pull an upset of the Falcons, 20-17 to cash as 14-point road underdogs. Miami’s defense has been carrying this squad by not giving up more than 20 points in any of their five games, resulting in a 5-0 mark to the UNDER. Last season, the Dolphins put together a 1-3 ATS record as a home favorite, with the lone cover coming against the Jets.

Best Bet: Dolphins -3

Saints (-4 ½, 47 ½) at Packers – 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Saints were lit up in their first two games of the season, falling to the Vikings and Patriots. New Orleans has turned things around lately by pulling out three consecutive victories, including a 52-38 shootout triumph over Detroit last Sunday. Not only did the Saints snap a three-game skid to the Lions dating back to 2014, but their much maligned defense scored three touchdowns in the win. Since 2013, the Saints have compiled a 3-9 ATS record in the role of a road favorite, while dropping their previous two visits to Lambeau Field in 2011 and 2012.

Green Bay
Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Packers suffered a huge blow to their season when star Aaron Rodgers went down with a shoulder injury in last Sunday’s 23-10 loss at Minnesota. Green Bay’s three-game winning streak came to an end, but the two-time MVP will be sidelined indefinitely, putting a dent into its Super Bowl chances as Brett Hundley is expected to start. The last time the Packers played without Rodgers was 2013, when he missed seven games with a left shoulder injury. In that span, the Pack compiled a 2-4-1 SU and 1-6 ATS mark, including a 1-4 ATS record in the role of an underdog.

Best Bet: Saints -4 ½

Cardinals vs. Rams (-3 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

These two NFC West rivals travel overseas to Twickenham Stadium in London for a night affair. The Cardinals rebounded from an ugly blowout loss to the Eagles by holding off the Buccaneers at home, 38-33 as short underdogs. Newly acquired running back Adrian Peterson rushed for a pair of touchdowns and 134 yards on 26 carries to help boost the ground game of the worst rushing offense in the league. Arizona picked up its first cover of the season, as the Cardinals split a pair of meetings with the Rams last season with the road team winning each time.

Los Angeles
Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Rams are in the midst of a three-game stretch in Jacksonville, London, and New York as L.A. is picking up plenty of frequent flyer miles. Los Angeles scored 17 first quarter points at Jacksonville last week, including a 103-yard kickoff return for a score to begin the game as the Rams took care of the Jaguars, 27-17. The Rams own a 1-3 ATS record in the favorite role this season, including an 0-2 ATS mark against division rivals.

Best Bet: Cardinals +3 ½

Seahawks (-5 ½, 40) at Giants – 4:25 PM EST

Seattle
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

Seattle is starting to climb the ladder of the NFC West following consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams the last two games. The Seahawks are fresh off the bye week (3-3-1 ATS under Pete Carroll), but together an impressive effort prior to the off week with a 16-10 victory at Los Angeles after trailing early, 10-0. Seattle’s defense created five turnovers, while limiting his fourth opponent in five games to 18 points or fewer. The Seahawks are listed as a road favorite for the first time in 2017 as they stumbled to an 0-5 ATS mark in this role last season.

New York
Record: 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Giants finally broke through the win column after an 0-5 start by overcoming key injuries to upset the Broncos as 13 ½-point underdogs, 23-10. The passing game has taken a hit with Odell Beckham, Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Brandon Marshall all going down with injuries, but running back Orleans Darkwa carried the load with 117 yards against the league’s best rushing defense in Denver. The Giants have covered three of their past four games, but are 0-2 ATS at Met Life Stadium this season (both as a favorite). New York own a 3-0-1 ATS record as a home underdog the last two seasons, including an outright victory over Dallas in 2016.

Best Bet: Giants +5 ½

Bengals at Steelers (-5 ½, 41) – 4:25 PM EST

Cincinnati
Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Bengals have picked themselves off the mat following an 0-3 start by beating the Browns and Bills. Cincinnati’s offense has woken up since an early slumber after scoring nine points in the first two games by averaging 25 points in the past three contests. The Bengals are off the bye after holding off Buffalo, 20-16 as three-point favorites, led by wide receiver A.J. Green’s 189 yards on seven catches and one touchdown. Cincinnati has lost four straight meetings with Pittsburgh, while failing to score more than 20 points in each of those defeats.

Pittsburgh
Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 6-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Steelers have seen plenty of ups and downs this season, coming off a 21-point beatdown at home to the Jaguars two weeks ago. Pittsburgh rebounded by handing Kansas City its first loss of the season last Sunday, 19-13 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Antonio Brown’s juggling catch down the sidelines on a 51-yard touchdown put the game away as Pittsburgh beat Kansas City for the third time in the last two seasons. The running game for Pittsburgh’s offense and defense set the tone as Le’Veon Bell racked up 179 yards on 32 carries, while the Steelers limited NFL rushing leader Kareem Hunt to 21 yards on nine carries. However, the Steelers have been inconsistent against the number this season by failing to cover in consecutive contests.

Best Bet: Bengals +5 ½

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Super Bowl rematch doesn't have super look
October 20, 2017

The rematch of the Super Bowl with an historic finish doesn't have much of a super look right now.

The Patriots are 4-2 and have not cruised in any game, mainly because of a leaky defense. The Falcons are 3-2 and easily could have one win.

Still, NBC must be salivating to have Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan, particularly with both teams vulnerable when they don't have the ball.

And, of course, each side has memories - joyful and painful - of New England's rally from a 25-point second-half hole to win the championship in February.

''Well, I mean those games, they live with you the rest of your life - the wins and the losses,'' Brady says. ''I mean, I think there's obviously 18 years for me. ... There's probably some games early in my career in the middle of October that I don't really remember that well, but I would say the Super Bowl ones you always remember pretty well.

''I mean, there was a lot on the line. You know, it's just the reality of it. As players, you hope you're in that position. You'd rather be in that game than not be in that game, win or lose. It's great to win and it stinks to lose, but that's playing sports.''

Atlanta comes off blowing a 17-point lead and losing at home to Miami. New England was down 14-0 at the Jets before rallying to win.

''We obviously haven't played as well as we're capable of through five games,'' Ryan says. ''But we're certainly close. We've done a lot of really good things at times.''

The weekend began with the Oakland Raiders' 31-30 comeback victory over the visiting Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night.

Derek Carr threw a 2-yard touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree on the final play after the game was extended by two straight defensive holding calls.

With their season on the line following the recent slump, Carr led an 85-yard touchdown drive in the final 2:25 to give the Raiders (3-4) the thrilling comeback win that snapped a four-game losing streak.

Carr finished 29 for 52 for 417 yards and three touchdowns, with Amari Cooper catching 11 passes for 210 yards and two of the scores.

The Chiefs (5-2) lost consecutive games for the first time since Oct. 11-18, 2015, and had their 12-game winning streak in the AFC West snapped.

Off this week are Houston and Detroit, both 3-3.

Washington (3-2) at Philadelphia (5-1), Monday night

For the NFC East lead. Yes, you hard that correctly.

The Eagles have been a revelation this season, with the best record in the NFC. They already have a win at Washington and bring the top-ranked rush defense into this prime-timer.

But, coincidentally, the Redskins have more road wins (42) vs. the Eagles than any other opponent. They are getting strong performances from QB Kirk Cousins and an underrated defense led by Ryan Kerrigan.

Philly already is 2-0 in the division and can take solid control with a win.

Denver (3-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)

After four losses, most of them in close decisions, the Chargers have won two straight. With the Dodgers still playing, it's unlikely many Angelenos will notice if the Bolts win again.

Denver, which beat LA in the opener, has the NFL's top-ranked defense. The Broncos have won 11 of the past 13 meetings with the Chargers.

Of note: Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has his second meeting with the Chargers since getting fired as their coach. New Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn won two Super Bowls as a Broncos running back and served as assistant coach in Denver from 2000-02.

Arizona (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-2) at London

Cheers, Adrian. Welcome back to London.

Adrian Peterson made this journey with the Saints on Oct. 1. Then he was dealt to Arizona, which lost its star running back, David Johnson, in the opener. So now the Cardinals play across the pond, though in Twickenham rather than Wembley.

''It's definitely different,'' Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer says of having Peterson behind him.

''Adrian is one of one. There's nobody in the league like him right now, that runs the ball the way he does. Any time you add somebody who's that special or that unique, it changes things.''

The Rams don't want to change much of anything. One of the NFL's surprise squads under first-year coach Sean McVay - the youngest in league history at 31 - the Rams are 3-0 on the road for the first time since 2001.

New Orleans (3-2) at Green Bay (4-2)

No Drew Brees-Aaron Rodgers matchup here, with A-Rod out with a collarbone injury.

Brees is up to old tricks with his accuracy and finding the end zone, and he excels vs. Green Bay. New Orleans has won three straight.

It won't help the Packers that their secondary is banged up - why does this team always seem to have so many injuries? - or that Brett Hundley makes his first career start behind center.

Baltimore (3-3) at Minnesota (4-2)

Minnesota has to be thinking big thoughts with Rodgers down in Green Bay. The first step for the Vikings is to not stumble against the inconsistent Ravens.

Joe Flacco is having a miserable time and ranks 31st in passer ratings. Baltimore's offense doesn't make enough big plays, and the Vikings' defense leads the NFL in third downs, surrendering 18 of 72 conversions for a league-low 25 percent.

The sides have met only five times, but the previous one was a doozy. They combined for an NFL-record five touchdowns in the final 125 seconds in Baltimore as the Ravens won 29-26.

Tampa Bay (2-3) at Buffalo (3-2)

Only the second time the Bucs have played at Orchard Park. They come off what could have been one of their worst defeats until they set franchise records by scoring 33 points in the second half and 27 in the fourth quarter against Arizona despite losing.

The Bills must find a way to spring loose LeSean McCoy, and the Bucs are ranked 12th in rushing defense; they are only 31st against the pass.

In nine seasons, McCoy has never started a season without a TD through five games. He hasn't topped 80 yards rushing since gaining 110 in a season-opening win over the Jets. He can take some solace in this: Tampa allowed Peterson to rush for 134 yards and two TDs last week in his Arizona debut.

Cincinnati (2-3) at Pittsburgh (4-2)

The Bungles have become Bengals again, winning two in a row after dropping their first three.

This, however, is a tough spot for Cincinnati: The Steelers have won seven of the past eight meetings between the AFC North rivals, including the past three. Pittsburgh has won all nine of the most recent October games against Cincinnati.

Since Bill Lazor was promoted to offensive coordinator for the third game of the season, Andy Dalton has come alive. In his past three outings, Dalton has seven TDs and two tipped interceptions for a passer rating of 116.2. But he's also 3-9 against the Steelers with 13 TDs, 11 INTs and a 76.5 passer rating.

Pittsburgh marched into Kansas City and handed the Chiefs their first loss in a defensive showcase.

Carolina (4-2) at Chicago (2-4)

Bears coach John Fox once took the Panthers to the Super Bowl. Panthers coach Ron Rivera played nine seasons for the Bears and later worked as their defensive coordinator.

Both teams have shown some strength on defense, Carolina ranking fourth, Chicago sixth. Veteran DE Julius Peppers has 6+ sacks in six games since his return to Carolina; he is a former Bear.

Chicago's two-pronged running attack of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen could determine this one. Cohen last week also became the first Bears rookie RB to throw a TD pass since Gale Sayers.

Tennessee (3-3) at Cleveland (0-6)

It just gets uglier and uglier for the Browns, who return to rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer after benching him last week. The Browns are 1-21 under coach Hue Jackson, though they seem to have a gem in top overall draft pick Myles Garrett. The defensive end has three sacks in two games after being sidelined by an ankle injury.

Watching Titans QB Marcus Mariota have to stay in the pocket because of a balky hamstring figured to be painful for the team's fans. But he looked strong, especially in the fourth quarter, when Tennessee scored 21 points to beat Indianapolis.

New York Jets (3-3) at Miami (2-3)

The Jets might have shown more in their close loss to New England that included a strange officiating call in the fourth quarter that damaged them, than in their real wins. A team seemingly headed for a forgettable season has energized its fan base with its enthusiasm and resilience.

Miami hasn't done quite that, but last week's rally from a 17-0 hole to win at Atlanta was sensational. It was the Dolphins' biggest road comeback victory since 1994. Miami has 11 straight wins in games decided by seven points or fewer.

Jacksonville (3-3) at Indianapolis (2-4)

Might be lots of ground work here. The Jaguars lead the NFL in rushing, have the next-to-worst run defense, and lead the league with 23 sacks. The Colts don't do a whole lot through the air without injured Andrew Luck, but do have still-impressive veteran RB Frank Gore.

Jacksonville rookie Leonard Fournette is one of two rookies in league history to score in the first six games of a career. Fournette has 130 carries for 596 yards and six TDs on the ground, and one TD catch.

Considering the Jags' record, do the Colts have much chance? Indy's wins have come against the only winless teams in the league, San Francisco and Cleveland.

Dallas (2-3) at San Francisco (0-6)

An all-time series tied 17-17-1, with some classics through the years.

This doesn't have that look, with the Niners keeping every game close before losing, the Cowboys struggling to find their form. Dallas has equaled its loss total of 2016.

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott got a legal reprieve to delay his six-game suspension. Elliott ran for 138 yards vs. San Francisco last season.

Rookie C.J. Beathard gets the start for benched QB Brian Hoyer.

Seattle (3-2) at New York Giants (1-5)

Somehow, despite all their injuries and turmoil, the Giants won for the first time, at Denver no less. They have lost three in a row to Seattle, which has not truly hit its stride this season.

The Seahawks enjoy coming to MetLife Stadium, where they routed Denver in the Super Bowl in February 2014. Their best players - Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Bobby Wagner, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman - tend to excel in the Meadowlands.

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NFL notebook: Steelers S Mitchell appealing late-hit fine
October 19, 2017

Pittsburgh Steelers safety Mike Mitchell has been fined $48,620 by the NFL for his late hit of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith last Sunday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter

Mitchell is in the process of appealing the fine, per Schefter.

The hit occurred in the fourth quarter of Pittsburgh's 19-13 win. Mitchell came in from behind and tackled Smith at his knees. Smith immediately got up and shouted at Mitchell. Mitchell received a 15-yard penalty for the hit. On Monday, he claimed that he tripped and was shoved by a teammate before tackling Smith.

"I'm not a dirty player," Mitchell said via ESPN.com. Smith called Mitchell's hit "as flagrant as it gets" on Tuesday.

Mitchell, 30, has been fined twice before by the NFL for unnecessary roughness.

--The Washington Redskins placed rookie defensive end Jonathan Allen on injured reserve, one day after he underwent Lisfranc foot surgery.

Allen is expected to miss about eight weeks but the Redskins aren't ruling him out for the season. Teams can return two players off injured reserve during the season, which leaves the door open for a potential return by Allen.

The first-round pick (17th overall) out of Alabama started each of Washington's first five games and has 10 tackles and one sack. He suffered the injury during the fourth quarter of Sunday's victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

--The San Francisco 49ers released veteran cornerback Leon Hall and re-signed tight end Logan Paulsen. Hall was let go just nine days after signing with the club.

A former first-round draft pick in 2007, Hall spent his first nine seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals before playing for the New York Giants last season.

Paulsen, who was released by the 49ers on Tuesday, was signed to a one-year deal. He appeared in San Francisco's first six games but did not have a catch.

--Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shahid Khan thinks he knows why President Donald Trump has had the NFL in his crosshairs. Jealousy.

"This is a very personal issue with him," Khan told USA Today after Wednesday's owners meetings concluded in New York regarding Trump's insistence that the league's players should all stand during the national anthem.

Trump attempted to buy the Buffalo Bills in 2014, but his bid failed. Khan believes that might be fueling the president's unrelenting criticism of the widespread player protests during the anthem this season.

Khan was one of seven NFL owners who made financial contributions to Trump, donating $1 million to his inauguration fund. Khan said he does not regret making the donation.

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Bucs keep Winston from testing shoulder
October 19, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) Jameis Winston says his injured right shoulder is ''getting better every single day,'' however the Tampa Bay quarterback still isn't throwing in practice.

The Buccaneers decided against the third-year pro testing his arm Thursday, saying Winston instead will work with the first-team offense on Friday.

''We made a decision to hold him another day from throwing. He did everything else,'' coach Dirk Koetter said. ''I fully expect that Jameis takes all the snaps (Friday).''

Asked if that's an indication Winston could be on track to start Sunday's game at Buffalo, Koetter smiled.

''You guys will get an injury report,'' the coach said, ''and you can draw your own conclusion.''

Winston, who has a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder, was listed as ''limited'' in practice for the second straight day.

Teams typically don't declare a player's status for an upcoming game until Friday.

Earlier in the week, Koetter said Winston is day to day and that a decision on whether he plays would be based, in part, on whether the quarterback feels he is able to throw with enough velocity.

Winston said before practice Thursday that he took ''mental reps'' on Wednesday and that he had no idea when a decision will be made on his availability for Sunday.

In the meantime, backup Ryan Fitzpatrick is preparing to face the Bills, one of seven teams he's played for during a 13-year career.

''When they let me go, I'm ready,'' Winston said, adding that the long-term health of his shoulder is the primary concern.

''It's not really about the passes and making the throws. It's the pain,'' he said. ''This is a long season. That's the biggest thing, it's a long season.''

Winston was injured during Tampa Bay's opening possession at Arizona last week. He returned for two more series before being replaced by Fitzpatrick.

The 23-year-old has made 37 consecutive starts to begin his career.

Winston said whether he plays will be a ''joint decision,'' though ultimately the team would have final say.

''Right now, mental reps, getting my shoulder right, treatment, treatment, treatment is what I'm focusing on,'' Winston said. ''And when Sunday comes, we all will know what'll happen.''

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Bucs' Fitzpatrick in familiar spot with chance to face Bills
October 19, 2017

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) Having a rocket scientist for a father and a Harvard education doesn't prevent Ryan Fitzpatrick from being superstitious.

The Buccaneers' journeyman backup is beginning to think this so-called curse that's affected most every starter on every team Fitzpatrick has played for just might be real.

''I've had a lot of opportunities, whether through injuries or weird circumstances,'' he said. ''Hopefully, it's not really true, but it sure does seem to happen an awful lot.''

Beginning with his rookie season with St. Louis in 2005, the seventh-round pick has started in place of everyone from Marc Bulger (Rams) to Carson Palmer (Cincinnati), and Jake Locker (Tennessee) to Case Keenum (Houston). And then there was 2015, when Fitzpatrick landed the Jets' starting job after Geno Smith had his jaw broken by teammate IK Enemkpali.

Eerily, it happened yet again last weekend, when Fitzpatrick was forced into action after starter Jameis Winston sprained his throwing shoulder on the opening drive of a 38-33 loss at Arizona.

With Winston in jeopardy of missing a game for the first time in his career, Fitzpatrick is in a position to start against one of his former - and perhaps, favorite - teams Sunday when Tampa Bay (2-3) travels to play the Buffalo Bills (3-2).

''It feels like home every time I go back,'' he said of Buffalo, where he spent four of his 13 NFL seasons before being cut in 2013.

Fitzpatrick would not have gotten this opportunity after he contemplated retiring following a dreadful season with the Jets. He finished 3-8 and threw 12 touchdowns versus 17 interceptions a year after nearly leading New York to the playoffs.

''I really had to sit down and reflect and figure out if I wanted to still do this or not,'' Fitzpatrick said before signing with Tampa Bay in May.

He proved it was the right decision with his performance against Arizona, in which he and the defense rallied the Bucs from a 31-0 third-quarter deficit.

''Being able to get out on the field and playing, I mean, I still love this game. I still love being out there,'' Fitzpatrick said after going 22 of 32 for 290 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.

It was the typical gunslinger-type outing his former Bills teammates are familiar with happening both for and against them.

''Do I have a favorite Ryan Fitzpatrick memory? They're all so good,'' veteran defensive tackle Kyle Williams said.

The one he didn't need to be reminded of was Fitzpatrick throwing for 374 yards in the Jets' 37-31 win that spoiled the Bills home opener last year.

''Next question,'' Williams said. ''That's a bad one.''

Some things to watch out for as Tampa Bay makes just its second trip to Buffalo in team history:

THE MATCHUP: The Bills are coming off their bye week with a chance of getting off to a 4-2 or better start for the fourth time during a 17-season playoff drought - the longest active streak in North America's four major pro sports.

The Bucs look to rebound from two losses, including a 19-14 defeat to New England in which Nick Folk, since released, missed three field-goal attempts.

SHADY SHUTOUT: Bills running back LeSean McCoy says it's time he started producing after being held without a touchdown through the first five games of a season for the first time in his nine-year career.

''It's been long enough. What is this, Week 8, 7?'' McCoy said. ''Yeah. I've got to get it back. We've got to get this thing rolling.''

McCoy has combined for 169 yards rushing since gaining 110 in a season-opening win over the Jets.

SANS SACKS: With a league-worst six sacks, the Bucs haven't had one from a defensive end since Noah Spence had the team's only quarterback trap in a season-opening win over Chicago. That's a big reason the team ranks 31st in pass defense, allowing 302 yards per game.

''Those numbers are not nearly what they need to be,'' coordinator Mike Smith said. ''We've got to get it turned around because if we don't, it's going to be more of the same.''

BANGED-UP BILLS: Starting tight end Charles Clay (left knee) won't play, and starting receiver Jordan Matthews' status is uncertain while returning to practice this week since breaking his right thumb. The two account for 30 of 85 receptions and 420 of the team's 910 yards receiving.

BEEN THERE: The Bucs' aren't concerned with their slow start a year after rallying from a 3-5 record to finish 9-7 for their first winning season since 2010.

''We aren't going to act like we haven't been here before,'' receiver Mike Evans said. ''Hopefully, it won't have to get to that, but I think we need to start winning ASAP.''

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Redskins hope to cut Eagles' lead in NFC East
October 19, 2017

PHILADELPHIA (AP) If the Washington Redskins are going to make a run at the NFC East title, they have to beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night.

Yes, it's a rare must-win game before the midpoint of the season.

The Redskins (3-2) already lost to the Eagles (5-1) at home in Week 1 so another loss drastically reduces their chances. And, they have a difficult schedule upcoming.

''I think that's why you play in the NFL is for games like this,'' quarterback Kirk Cousins said. ''To play against a really good team at their place and have a chance to put yourself in the hunt for the division and in the NFC. We've got to measure ourselves against really good football teams, and the Eagles certainly are one.''

Philadelphia has won four straight games, including an impressive 28-23 victory at Carolina last Thursday night.

Carson Wentz has been outstanding in his second season, and the offense has balance thanks to LeGarrette Blount's tough running. Fletcher Cox leads a strong defense that is No. 1 against the run.

A win to kick off a three-game stretch at home would put the Eagles in a prime spot not only in the division but also in the NFC. But there's a long way to go and they fell apart last season after a 3-0 start, finishing 7-9.

''We were (3-0) last year so obviously that didn't play out too well for us,'' tight end Zach Ertz said. ''I think that's in the back of everyone's mind.''

Here are some things to watch when the Eagles host the Redskins:

COOL AND CALM CARSON: Wentz's highlight-reel play against Washington in the first meeting, spinning away from tacklers and tossing a 58-yard TD to Nelson Agholor, was a prelude for his breakout season. He has 13 TDs and only three interceptions while playing his best on third down.

Wentz has shown poise under pressure, smart decision-making and a take-charge attitude that's helped him make a tremendous leap from his rookie season.

''What's accelerating his growth is that he's committed to the process wholeheartedly,'' offensive coordinator Frank Reich said.

''He's committed to his teammates, and maybe I think one of his best attributes is he's not a `me' guy, he's a team player, and has a lot of mental and physical toughness and has the smarts and is committed to that process.''

SACK ATTACK: The Eagles sacked Cousins four times in the opener and held him to a season-low 57.5 percent completion rate.

They rely on a ferocious front four led by Cox and Brandon Graham to bring pressure, but defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has called some well-timed blitzes . Opposing quarterbacks have a 53.5 passer rating against Philadelphia's blitz.

''We have to do a much better job than we did the last time we played them handling their pressure,'' coach Jay Gruden said. ''They have a very good pass rush, very strong defense. They're well-coached on defense.''

THOMPSON BALANCE: Gruden has called enough running plays to shake the reputation that he's a pass-happy coach with no interest in the ground game.

With Rob Kelley battling injuries and after rookie Samaje Perine fumbled, Gruden last week gave third down back Chris Thompson a career-high 16 carries.

Thompson leads the Redskins with 175 yards rushing and 340 receiving and has four touchdowns, so now the challenge is not wearing down the 5-foot-8 back. Gruden would like to get Thompson seven or eight carries and 10-15 touches a game.

''I think we gauge him on the sideline,'' Gruden said. Running backs coach Randy Jordan ''does a nice job of seeing how they are physically, talking to them, making sure they're OK.''

UNCERTAIN SECONDARY: Wentz could face a Redskins secondary without top cornerbacks Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland, though young players such as Quinton Dunbar, Kendal Fuller and Fabian Moreau have shown they can fill that void.

''Preparation equals performance,'' Dunbar said. ''When we prepare, and with the talent we got and speed Fabian's got, the ability and the smartness Kendall's got, we can play with anybody.''

KICKING GAME: Eagles rookie Jake Elliott has made 10 straight field goals, including his game-winning 61-yarder against the Giants in Week 3. His average distance during the streak is 45.4 yards.

The Redskins placed Dustin Hopkins on injured reserve and signed Nick Rose, who will make his NFL debut. He played college football at Texas.

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NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............25 - 25 - 1....50.00%....-12.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50

10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00

10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50

10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00

10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00

10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50

10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00

10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50

10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals......................13 - 11 - 1............+ 4.50...........11 - 9...........+5.50................+10.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 2..................................-10.00
.
Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00

Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 0 .................................+12.50