The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

PHI at LAC 04:05 PM

PHI +2.0 *****

U 48.0

NYG at TB 04:05 PM

TB -2.5 *****

U 45.5

SF at ARI 04:05 PM

SF +6.5 ***** DOG OF THE DAY

O 44.0

OAK at DEN 04:25 PM

DEN -3.5

O 44.0 ***** Total of the Day

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay:

IND at SEA 08:30 PM

IND +12.0 *****

O 42.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Highlights

Saints 20, Dolphins 0— Miami has played three games; in LA, New Jersey and London; they have scored 2 TD’s on 29 drives- difficult to assess how much of this is ineptitude and how much of it is the distractions they’ve had so far, combined with the hurricane messing up life in south Florida. But they got shut out BY THE SAINTS!!!, a huge red flag. I honestly think backup QB Matt Moore is better than Jay Cutler.

Panthers 33, Patriots 30— Carolina had only 3 TD’s on 28 drives coming in; they had four TD’s on nine drives in this upset win. NE allowed 42-20-33-33 points in first four games, and three of those were at home, Under Rivera, Panthers are 20-9-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Since 2010, over is 39-20 in Patriot home games.

Rams 35, Cowboys 30—Dallas is now 0-8 in game the week after their last 8 Monday night games. LA scored 142 points in its first four games (12 TD’s, 14 FGAs on 41 drives); they’ve averaged 10.0/8.6/10.4/6.8 yards/pass attempt. Rams’ improvement on offense over last year is astounding- they also had a 13-yard edge in field position. Greg Zuerlein had seven FG’s for the 3-1, first-place Rams.

Lions 14, Vikings 7— Detroit has now won three of last four visits here; Lions’ only TD drive was 29 yards. Minnesota lost three fumbles (-3 in TO’s), also lost rookie RB Cook with a torn ACL. Vikings scored 9-7 points in their losses, 29-34 in their wins.

A bettor at the Mirage in Las Vegas made a six-figure first half wager on the Broncos; when that won, he rolled it over on the Seahawks -12 in the Sunday night game. I’m writing this during the 2nd half of the 4:00 games, so we’ll see how he makes out later on tonite.

Texans 57, Titans 14—Deshaun Watson was the 12th player taken in last spring’s draft; the Jets need a good young QB- they passed on him. Think a lot of teams would like a do-over on that draft.

NFL teams that turn the ball over five times almost never win. Titans had turned ball over once in their first three games, but were -4 in turnovers in this game. Houston has now scored 90 points in its last two games, both against good teams, and with a rookie QB.

Jets 23, Jaguars 20 OT— This was like old-time football; rushing yardage was 256-175, Jets, who scored two TD’s, on runs of 75-69 yards. Jaguars completed only 15-35 passes, averaged 3.8 yards per pass attempt, which is poor. Under Bowles, New York is 11-7 vs spread at home. Total yardage in this game was 471-311, Jets, but Jax did score a defensive TD.

Under is 11-9 so far this week, as far as individual team over/unders.

Bengals 31, Browns 7— Bengals have now beaten Cleveland six times in row, winning last three visits to Lake Erie, by 34-13-24 points. Under is 18-8 in Cincy’s last 26 road games. Cleveland is 3-11-1 vs spread in last 15 games as a home underdog; they missed a 48-yard FG when game was scoreless and things got worse from there- they averaged 3.9 ypa.

Steelers 26, Ravens 9— Ravens were +7 in TO’s in winning their first two games; they’ve been outscored 70-16 in two games since then. Under is 17-9 in their last 26 home games. Steelers ran ball for 173 yards here, after running it for only 207 yards in their first 3 games (69 ypg). Under is 20-7 in Pitt’s last 27 road games. Baltimore has only six plays of 20+ yards all season, 2nd-least in league.

Bills 23, Falcons 17— Key play of this game was a “fumble” that really looked like Ryan threw the ball as he was hit, but it was ruled a fumble/TD for the Bills. Buffalo has allowed only 13.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, giving up four TD’s on 42 drives; holding Falcons to 17 points on carpet is impressive. Atlanta is just 4-11 vs spread as a home favorite under Quinn. Six of the eight 1:00 games Sunday were won SU by the underdog.

Buccaneers 25, Giants 23— Giants are 0-4, running ball 64 times for 193 yards, scoring 7 TD’s on 41 drives- their last two losses were by total of 5 points. Big Blue has been outscored 53-17 in first half of games; they have 43-42 edge in 2nd half. 8 for 17 on 3rd down was much better than 11-34 in first three games. 0-4 Chargers visit Swamp Stadium next week. Bucs are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite.

Eagles 26, Chargers 24— Philly ran ball for 214 yards, killed off last 6:44 of game by running ball for four first downs after Chargers closed to within 26-24. Philly is 3-1 despite playing only one home game so far; they were 9-16 on 3rd down, are 30-59 on 3rd down for season- very good. Chargers are 0-4 with three losses by 3 or less points; they visit 0-4 Giants next week.

Cardinals 18, 49ers 15 (OT)— There were no TD’s in game until Palmer hit Fitzgerald with 0:32 left in OT to end things. Each team had ball only once in 10:00 OT; 49ers ate up 7:36 and kicked their 5th FG of game to take 15-12 lead, but Arizona drove 75 yards in seven plays for the win. 49ers haven’t scored a TD in three of their four games; they scored 39 points in the other game, a 41-39 loss to the Rams.

Broncos 16, Raiders 10— There were ugly rumors on the Interweb over the weekend that the Raider O-line wasn’t happy that Derek Carr wouldn’t kneel for national anthem with his teammates last Monday night in Washington, so they tanked couple of plays so he would get clocked and “learn a lesson”. Hopefully those rumors aren’t true.

Carr hurt his back Sunday in Denver, was replaced by EJ Manuel. If he can’t play anymore, the Raiders’ season is screwed.

Broncos are 10-2 in last 12 series games; Oakland lost five of last six visits to Denver.

Seahawks 46, Colts 18—Game was tied in 3rd quarter, before Seahawks broke it open by scoring three TD’s in a 5:56 span- their defense scored two TD’s in the game. Seattle is 27-16 vs spread as a home favorite under Carroll; they’re 9-3 in last 12 games when laying double digits. Colts’ offense has allowed four defensive TD’s in two road games, losing 46-9/46-18.

In the second half, Seahawks ran 40 plays for 337 yards, scored four TD’s. In one half.

As for the guy in Las Vegas who bet six figures on Denver in the first half today, then doubled down on Seattle in this game, I’m guessing it is fun to be hanging out with him tonight.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Redskins at Chiefs
October 1, 2017

LAST WEEK

The Redskins (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) put together a terrific effort in dispatching the Raiders as 3 ½-point home underdogs, 27-10 last Sunday night. Following a loss in the season opener to Philadelphia, Washington has posted back-to-back victories, as quarterback Kirk Cousins torched the Oakland defense for 365 yards and three touchdown passes. Running back Chris Thompson only racked up 38 yards on the ground, but accumulated 150 yards receiving, including a 22-yard touchdown catch from Cousins.

Washington’s defense shut down Derek Carr and the Raiders by forcing three turnovers, including a pair of interceptions. Oakland managed only 128 yards, a radically different defensive effort after allowing over 330 yards in each of the first two weeks against Philadelphia and Los Angeles. The Redskins improved to 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the underdog role since Week 3 of the 2015 season, while picking up their first victory at FedEx Field since Week 11 against Green Bay last season.

The Chiefs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) are off to their first 3-0 start since Andy Reid’s first season as head coach back in 2013. Kansas City pulled away from Los Angeles, 24-10 to cash as three-point road favorites in Week 3. The Chiefs built an early 14-0 lead, but the Chargers crept back to cut the deficit to 17-10 at halftime. Only seven points were scored in the second half, thanks to a 69-yard touchdown run by rookie standout Kareem Hunt, who finished with 172 yards on 17 carries.

Kansas City beat Los Angeles for the seventh straight time since 2014, while intercepting Philip Rivers three times. Quarterback Alex Smith has yet to commit a turnover as he owns a touchdown to interception ratio of 7/0, although he owns only one 300-yard passing game, coming in the season opening victory at New England (368 yards).

NOT SO STRAIGHT ARROWS

The Chiefs own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL, but Kansas City has not helped backers the last few seasons at Arrowhead Stadium. From 2015 through 2016, the Chiefs posted a 5-11 ATS as a home favorite, but won 11 of those 16 games. Kansas City managed a cover as four-point favorites in a Week 2 win over Philadelphia, 27-20, but is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games against NFC opponents.

ROAD WARRIORS

Washington has been impressive on the highway since getting blown out at Carolina in November 2015. The Redskins are riding an 8-3-1 run away from FedEx Field in the past 12 road games, including covers against Baltimore and Cincinnati. Amazingly, Jay Gruden’s squad is 8-1 ATS in its last nine opportunities as a road ‘dog, while eclipsing the OVER in each of their past three games prior to the bye week.

TOTAL TALK

The Redskins have hit the OVER in both road contests this season, while riding a seven-game OVER streak away from FedEx Field since Week 8 against Cincinnati in 2016. The Chiefs cashed their first UNDER against the Chargers following a pair of OVERS the first two weeks, while finishing UNDER the total in seven of the past nine games at Arrowhead Stadium.

SERIES HISTORY

The Chiefs have captured each of the past six matchups with the Redskins dating back to 1992, as Kansas City destroyed Washington in the previous meeting in D.C. in 2013 by a 45-10 count. Kansas City jumped out to a 31-0 lead and cruised as Smith threw two touchdown passes, while Jamaal Charles rushed for 150 yards and a touchdown. The Redskins are making their first trip to eastern Missouri since 2005 as they fell to the Chiefs, 28-21 as 6 ½-point underdogs. The last time the Redskins beat the Chiefs came way back in 1983 at RFK Stadium.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson breaks down the bulk of the Chiefs’ success early on, “Hunt leads the NFL in rushing, replacing Spencer Ware who was injured in the preseason. Hunt was a third round pick out of Toledo, so he certainly expected to have promise, but few could have pegged him as clearly the most impactful rookie so far this season. He has gained 8.5 yards per attempt since fumbling on his very first carry in Week 1 at New England. The Chiefs lead the NFL by a wide margin in both rushing yards per game (162.0) and per attempt (6.8) with the per attempt number truly outrageous, with Tennessee the only team in the NFL even within two yards of that average.”

The Redskins’ defense will challenge the Kansas City running game according to Nelson, “Washington has allowed just 272 yards per game this season for the fifth best average in the NFL, following finishing as the 5th-worst team in total defense in 2016. Washington has allowed just 62.3 yards per game on the ground, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry as the Chiefs will be tested this week. Washington’s dominant Sunday night showing against Oakland last week is skewing the numbers a bit, but Greg Manusky has done a great job so far in his first season as defensive coordinator.”

Handicapper Vince Akins breaks down a ‘dog trend that supports Washington on Monday night, “The Redskins are 9-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since Nov 29, 2015 as a dog of at least three points, which includes a 7-1-1 SU record.” From a totals standpoint, the Chiefs are in an UNDER spot by going 14-0 to the UNDER (-12.9 ppg) since Oct 31, 2010 at home coming off a game as a favorite where they covered but by fewer than 27 points.

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu provides his view from the counter, “Not a lot happening on the spread side of things for this Monday Night Football affair, which means we put out a good number. Only square money thus far, and almost 65 percent of that is on the Chiefs. We’ve adjusted the total a half point up based on a bit of sharp action, but I don’t think it gets any higher, and it will likely drop below the opener as we get closer to kickoff.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Record For Sept......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

Totals...................41 - 30 - 1...........57.74%...........+ 40.00

Best Bets:

Best Bets Total.............7 - 6......+2.00............7 - 7.........- 3.50................- 1.50


Dog Of The Month........1 - 0

Total Of the Day...........1 - 0


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NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00


Best Bets:...................ATS.......Units........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

Best Bets Total.............4 - 4......-2.00............2 - 2.........- 1.00................- 3.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 2.................................-5.00

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 4 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Kansas City +6.5, 575

5) Cincinnati, -3, 595- W

4) New Orleans, -3, 705- W

3) NJ Giants, +3, 726- W

2) LA Chargers, -1.5, 774- L

1) Denver, -2.5, 963- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 10-13

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Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Saints 20, Dolphins 0— Miami has played three games; in LA, New Jersey and London; they have scored 2 TD’s on 29 drives- difficult to assess how much of this is ineptitude and how much of it is the distractions they’ve had so far, combined with the hurricane messing up life in south Florida. But they got shut out BY THE SAINTS!!!, a huge red flag. I honestly think backup QB Matt Moore is better than Jay Cutler.

Panthers 33, Patriots 30— Carolina had only 3 TD’s on 28 drives coming in; they had four TD’s on nine drives in this upset win. NE allowed 42-20-33-33 points in first four games, and three of those were at home, Under Rivera, Panthers are 20-9-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Since 2010, over is 39-20 in Patriot home games.

Rams 35, Cowboys 30—Dallas is now 0-8 in game the week after their last 8 Monday night games. LA scored 142 points in its first four games (12 TD’s, 14 FGAs on 41 drives); they’ve averaged 10.0/8.6/10.4/6.8 yards/pass attempt. Rams’ improvement on offense over last year is astounding- they also had a 13-yard edge in field position. Greg Zuerlein had seven FG’s for the 3-1, first-place Rams.

Lions 14, Vikings 7— Detroit has now won three of last four visits here; Lions’ only TD drive was 29 yards. Minnesota lost three fumbles (-3 in TO’s), also lost rookie RB Cook with a torn ACL. Vikings scored 9-7 points in their losses, 29-34 in their wins.

A bettor at the Mirage in Las Vegas made a six-figure first half wager on the Broncos; when that won, he rolled it over on the Seahawks -12 in the Sunday night game. I’m writing this during the 2nd half of the 4:00 games, so we’ll see how he makes out later on tonite.

Texans 57, Titans 14—Deshaun Watson was the 12th player taken in last spring’s draft; the Jets need a good young QB- they passed on him. Think a lot of teams would like a do-over on that draft.

NFL teams that turn the ball over five times almost never win. Titans had turned ball over once in their first three games, but were -4 in turnovers in this game. Houston has now scored 90 points in its last two games, both against good teams, and with a rookie QB.

Jets 23, Jaguars 20 OT— This was like old-time football; rushing yardage was 256-175, Jets, who scored two TD’s, on runs of 75-69 yards. Jaguars completed only 15-35 passes, averaged 3.8 yards per pass attempt, which is poor. Under Bowles, New York is 11-7 vs spread at home. Total yardage in this game was 471-311, Jets, but Jax did score a defensive TD.

Under is 11-9 so far this week, as far as individual team over/unders.

Bengals 31, Browns 7— Bengals have now beaten Cleveland six times in row, winning last three visits to Lake Erie, by 34-13-24 points. Under is 18-8 in Cincy’s last 26 road games. Cleveland is 3-11-1 vs spread in last 15 games as a home underdog; they missed a 48-yard FG when game was scoreless and things got worse from there- they averaged 3.9 ypa.

Steelers 26, Ravens 9— Ravens were +7 in TO’s in winning their first two games; they’ve been outscored 70-16 in two games since then. Under is 17-9 in their last 26 home games. Steelers ran ball for 173 yards here, after running it for only 207 yards in their first 3 games (69 ypg). Under is 20-7 in Pitt’s last 27 road games. Baltimore has only six plays of 20+ yards all season, 2nd-least in league.

Bills 23, Falcons 17— Key play of this game was a “fumble” that really looked like Ryan threw the ball as he was hit, but it was ruled a fumble/TD for the Bills. Buffalo has allowed only 13.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, giving up four TD’s on 42 drives; holding Falcons to 17 points on carpet is impressive. Atlanta is just 4-11 vs spread as a home favorite under Quinn. Six of the eight 1:00 games Sunday were won SU by the underdog.

Buccaneers 25, Giants 23— Giants are 0-4, running ball 64 times for 193 yards, scoring 7 TD’s on 41 drives- their last two losses were by total of 5 points. Big Blue has been outscored 53-17 in first half of games; they have 43-42 edge in 2nd half. 8 for 17 on 3rd down was much better than 11-34 in first three games. 0-4 Chargers visit Swamp Stadium next week. Bucs are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite.

Eagles 26, Chargers 24— Philly ran ball for 214 yards, killed off last 6:44 of game by running ball for four first downs after Chargers closed to within 26-24. Philly is 3-1 despite playing only one home game so far; they were 9-16 on 3rd down, are 30-59 on 3rd down for season- very good. Chargers are 0-4 with three losses by 3 or less points; they visit 0-4 Giants next week.

Cardinals 18, 49ers 15 (OT)— There were no TD’s in game until Palmer hit Fitzgerald with 0:32 left in OT to end things. Each team had ball only once in 10:00 OT; 49ers ate up 7:36 and kicked their 5th FG of game to take 15-12 lead, but Arizona drove 75 yards in seven plays for the win. 49ers haven’t scored a TD in three of their four games; they scored 39 points in the other game, a 41-39 loss to the Rams.

Broncos 16, Raiders 10— There were ugly rumors on the Interweb over the weekend that the Raider O-line wasn’t happy that Derek Carr wouldn’t kneel for national anthem with his teammates last Monday night in Washington, so they tanked couple of plays so he would get clocked and “learn a lesson”. Hopefully those rumors aren’t true.

Carr hurt his back Sunday in Denver, was replaced by EJ Manuel. If he can’t play anymore, the Raiders’ season is screwed.

Broncos are 10-2 in last 12 series games; Oakland lost five of last six visits to Denver.

Seahawks 46, Colts 18—Game was tied in 3rd quarter, before Seahawks broke it open by scoring three TD’s in a 5:56 span- their defense scored two TD’s in the game. Seattle is 27-16 vs spread as a home favorite under Carroll; they’re 9-3 in last 12 games when laying double digits. Colts’ offense has allowed four defensive TD’s in two road games, losing 46-9/46-18.

In the second half, Seahawks ran 40 plays for 337 yards, scored four TD’s. In one half.

As for the guy in Las Vegas who bet six figures on Denver in the first half today, then doubled down on Seattle in this game, I’m guessing it is fun to be hanging out with him tonight.

[StarDust Bum]

bump

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 2

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Washington at Kansas City
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Washington at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)

Washington vies for their second straight dominating prime-time performance against an AFC West opponent on Monday night when they face the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Washington handed the Oakland Raiders their first loss of the season under the lights on Sunday night, forcing three turnovers and limiting Derek Carr. and Co. to just 128 total yards of offense in a 27-10 rout.

"There was some fundamental clinic tape in that game that I am very, very impressed with," Washington coach Jay Gruden said of his defense that limited the Raiders to 32 rushing yards and did not allow them to convert on third down last week (0-for-11). "Now the standards are set very high around here now. The ability to maintain it is going to be critical for us." That improved defense could have a tall task in corralling electrifying rookie Kareem Hunt, who stepped in for the injured Spencer Ware in the preseason and leads the NFL with 401 rushing yards. The third-round selection ran for 172 yards in a 24-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week and is the first rookie since 1981 to record six touchdowns through his first three career games. Kansas City averages a league-leading 162.0 rushing yards, and its 397.3 yards of total offense is third-best in league.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Washington (-0.5) - Kansas City (5.5) + home field (-3) = Kansas City -8

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7-point home chalk and that number dropped to 6.5 on Monday before returning to the opening number later in the week. The total hit the betting board 49.5 and has yet to move.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Redskins are coming off a dominating home win last Sunday night versus the Raiders, but now Washington must travel and play another national TV night game against an AFC West opponent. The Chiefs are the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL this season. Washington QB Kirk Cousins missed two days of practice earlier in the week due to the birth of his first child." - Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - WR Jamison Crowder (Probable, Hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (Probable, Shoulder), RB Samaje Perine (Probable, Hand), S D.J. Swearinger (Questionable, Hamstring), DL Jonathan Allen (Questionable, Shoulder), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Shoulder), S Montae Nicholson (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Josh Norman (Questionable, Shoulder), RB Rob Kelley (Questionable, Ribs), LB Mason Foster (Questionable, Shoulder), T Ty Nsekhe (Early Nov, Abdominal).

Kansas City - OL Parker Ehinger (Probable, Knee), OL Eric Fisher (Questionable, Back), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Questionable, Groin), Ol Cameron Erving (Questionable, Calf), LB Dee Ford (Questionable, Hip), WR De’Anthony Thomas (Questionable, Shoulder).
Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns last week while boasting a 150.7 passer rating to earn NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Fresh off his best start of the season, Cousins could also see the returns of two key offensive cogs on Monday as tight end Jordan Reed (ribs, shoulder) and running back Rob Kelley (ribs) each have expressed confidence in getting back to action after a one-game absence. Their respective understudies did quite well in their stead, with veteran tight end Vernon Davis reeling in a touchdown pass and fourth-year back Chris Thompson amassing 188 all-purpose yards and a score in last week's rout. Washington's ground game could pay dividends against a Kansas City defense that is 21st in yards per carry (4.3) and 19th in rushing yards per game (111.7).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Kansas City has recorded at least one touchdown of more than 50 yards in an NFL-record nine straight regular-season games, with 11 scores in total coming in that stretch. "We've got big-play guys that can go, when given the opportunity. (They) can take it the distance," quarterback Alex Smith said. Second-year wide receiver Tyreek Hill (team-leading 16 receptions, 253 yards) was responsible for six of those touchdowns while Hunt has three. Tight end Travis Kelce, who has one of those scores, is looking to rebound after a one-reception, one-yard performance on the heels of making eight grabs for 103 yards and a touchdown the previous week.

TRENDS:

* Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.

* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

* Under is 5-1 Washington's last 6 Monday games.

* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in October.

* Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Chiefs at a rate of 56 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as home faves in Week 5
Patrick Everson

“Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Through the first four weeks of the season, Dallas still can’t seem to find the form it had during a 13-3 SU regular season in 2016. On Sunday, the Cowboys (2-2 SU and ATS) were in a dogfight throughout with the Los Angeles Rams and ultimately fell short 35-30 as a 5-point home favorite.

Green Bay got through the first month at 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), with the only loss coming at defending NFC champion Atlanta. Last week in the Thursday nighter, the Packers bounced the Bears 35-14 as a 7.5-point chalk.

“This rivalry has renewed in great fashion the last few years, and this game will easily be our biggest handle of the season from a public perspective,” Cooley said of this 4:25 p.m. ET clash on Sunday. “Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)

Much like Dallas, New England was dealt a stunning home loss in Week 4 and has now lost two of its three home games this season. The Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled to Carolina 33-30 as a 9-point fave, and now hit the road on a short week, playing in the Thursday night game.

Tampa Bay (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got a Nick Folk 34-yard field goal as time expired to edge the New York Giants 25-23, but the Bucs fell a tick short of covering as 2.5-point chalk Sunday.

“We’re expecting this number to inflate with the Patriots coming off a loss. But it’s doubtful it will grow to -5, and unlikely it will drop below -4,” Cooley said. “Our team was pretty consistent on this number and it feels right. Squares will think this is a steal spread, backing the Pats.”

As Cooley predicted, the number did bump up a tick later Sunday night, to Patriots -4.5.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Philadelphia is looking solid through four weeks, having already posted a pair of road victories. On Sunday at San Diego, the Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) held on for a 26-24 win as a 2-point underdog.

Arizona (2-2 SU) hasn’t covered in any of its four games this season. The Cardinals needed overtime Sunday in an offensive slog against San Francisco, winning 18-15 laying 6 points at home.

“My best guess is that this will climb a bit on the favorite side,” Cooley said. “Arizona is just not a good team, while we’ve been quite impressed with the Eagles, particularly in their road victories against decent competition. Some of our oddsmakers wanted this at -7.”

By late Sunday night, it was already trending that way, with Bookmaker.eu moving the Eagles to -6.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Los Angeles is arguably one of the biggest surprises so far this season, getting out of the box 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) while piling up a ton of points. The Rams went into Dallas on Sunday as a 5-point pup, but came away with a 35-30 victory, getting six field goals from Greg Zuerlein.

Seattle finally showed signs of life on offense in the second half of the Week 4 Sunday night game. The Seahawks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) scored 36 points over the final two frames against Indianapolis, rolling to a 46-18 victory laying 12.5 points at home. With Seattle in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is waiting until Monday to post the line on Seahawks-Rams.

“Depending on how the Sunday night game goes, we’ll likely open Seattle as short chalk on the road,” Cooley said. “The Rams have surprised most, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly impressed in the early goings (prior to Sunday). That said, the public won’t think twice about backing the ‘Hawks at a favorable number.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 4
October 2, 2017

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 4 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 5-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-7

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Panthers (+9.5, ML +400) at Patriots, 33-30
Bills (+8, ML +330) at Falcons, 23-17
Rams (+5.5, ML +210) at Cowboys, 35-30
Jets (+4, ML +175) vs. Jaguars, 23-20

The largest favorite to cover
Seahawks (-12.5) vs. Colts, 46-18
Packers (-7) vs. Bears, 35-14
Saints (-4) vs. Dolphins, 20-0
Bengals (-3.5) at Browns, 31-7
Broncos (-3.5) vs. Raiders, 16-10
Steelers (-3.5) at Ravens, 26-9

Paying The Bills

-- The Buffalo Bills picked up a road win against the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons, 23-17. The Bills were aided by the early exits of WRs Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, but it was their defense with another strong effort either way. Buffalo has allowed just 13.5 PPG over their first four games, and they're an impressive 4-0 ATS so far. In addition, total bettors have hit the 'under' in three of their four outings. They'll look to keep it rolling on the road in Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Ram It

-- The Los Angeles Rams posted an impressive 35-30 victory on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. The Rams have struggled defensively, yielding an average of 32.0 PPG over the past three outings, but they have still won each of their past two road outings. The 'over' is also 4-0 this season, but that streak will be put to the test when the Seattle Seahawks pay a visit to L.A. in Week 5. The Rams are also 3-1 ATS overall this season, including covers in each of their two road contests.
Total Recall

-- Sunday Night Football looked like it was going to be a defensive battle in the first quarter, but then the floodgates opened. Indianapolis-Seattle (41.5). The Colts surprised with a 15-10 lead at halftime, and then the Seahawks rolled to 22 points in the third quarter to push the total over after 45 minutes. It seems like old time, as the prime time games this week have each smashed the 'over'.

-- The lowest total on the board -- Jacksonville-N.Y. Jets (38.5) ended up needing overtime, tied 20-20 after regulation. More importantly, the game hit the 'over'. The two games with the second-lowest line (41.5), Indy-Seattle and Cincinnati-Cleveland split the over/under. Five teams ended up with 10 points or less this week, including a shutout in the New Orleans-Miami (52) battle in London.

-- The N.Y. Giants-Tampa Bay (45.5) game looked to be in good shape for 'under' bettors initially. A torrential downpour was the scene at the beginning of the late-afternoon kick at Raymond James Stadium, but it didn't stop the Bucs from getting out to a 13-0 lead after 15 minutes. The scoring actually settled down in the second half, and was aided by the poor kicking of Nick Folk. The veteran kicker missed two field goals and an extra point earlier in the game, so naturally the outcome of the game came down to his foot. He banged home a 34-yard field goal to give the Bucs a 25-23 win, but it also changed the result of the total for most bettors from under to over.

-- The 'Over' is 7-6 through the first 13 primetime games of the 2017 season, with Monday's game between the Washington Redskins-Kansas City Chiefs still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Falcons WRs Julio Jones (hip) and Mohamed Sanu (hamstring) each checked out of the Week 4 game against the Bills early and they were unable to return.

-- Raiders QB Derek Carr (back) took a knee to the back in the second half of the game against the Raiders and the initial diagnosis after the outing was that the star quarterback was dealing with back spasms.

-- Titans QB Marcus Mariota (hamstring) was forced out of Sunday's lopsided loss against the Texans due to a hamstring injury. He'll underdog an MRI on Monday.

-- Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (knee) is believed to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate injury against the Lions after a non-contact injury.

Looking Ahead

-- The surprising Rams will host the Seahawks, looking to stay hot against the number. Seattle opened as a 2 1/2-point favorite, which will make the Rams an attractive play if you believe in trends. The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against the Rams, while going 3-7 ATS in the past 10 overall in this series. The underdog is also 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings, with the home team cashing in seven of the past eight in this series. While the 'over' is 4-0 for LAR so far this season, the 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this series.

-- The Packers and Cowboys renew their rivalry in Dallas in the late-afternoon nationally televised game. The Packers have owned the series lately, at least against the number, going 5-2 ATS in the past meetings. However, Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to the Metroplex, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The underdog is also 4-1 ATS in the past five in the series, while the 'over' has cashed in each of the past four battles.

-- The Vikings and Bears will do battle on Monday Night Football at Soldier Field. The Vikings haven't done very well on MNF in recent seasons, going 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games on Monday, while also struggling outdoors. They're just 1-5 ATS in their past six on a grass surface. The Bears have covered six of their past seven at home, while going 5-2 ATS in their past seven showings on MNF. The Vikings have cashed in just three of their past 14 trips to Chicago, while the home team is 21-8 ATS in the past 29 in the series. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings, while going 8-3 in the past 11 overall in the series.

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Books win another Sunday
October 2, 2017

One week after the betting public got buried by selecting so many NFL favorites, they got treated to a little bit of the same in Week 4 action with seven underdogs winning outright. However, the story is a little this time around.

"When people see seven underdogs winning outright they automatically think the books had a great day, but it wasn't anything like last week," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "It was a good day, but we still lost large amount to the Steelers, Bengals, Saints, Lions and Broncos. We also lost to the Jets, a game the sharps loved but the public stayed away from. There were a lot of hidden losses in between."

However, there were still more wins than losses and most the books came out ahead despite the Seahawks (-12.5) rolling to a 48-16 win in the Sunday night game over the Colts.

"It was an okay day," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood. "Sharps are having a good day and the public is getting beat up a little bit. We had some house players do well on their games, one of them rolled over their Denver winnings to Seattle."

Rood said the initial bet on Denver was more than $100,000.

"Our best game was Atlanta losing just because it beat out all the large money-line parlays and teasers," said Rood. "We didn't have a lot of takers on the Bills. We had +330 on the Bills money-line and only had $1,000 total bet on it between 19 tickets. The Patriots losing was good for us, but it was tied to Atlanta on lots of plays."

The Falcons (-9) lost their two starting WRs during the game which aided in the Bills' 23-17 road win. Tom Brady erased 14-point deficit to tie the Panthers 30-30, but the Patriots woeful defense couldn't stop the Panthers from driving and kicking a game winning field goal. The Bills are now in first-place at 3-1 in the AFC East, a division the Patriots have won the past eight years.

"Denver was one of the worst losses of the day," said Kornegay of the Broncos 16-10 win over the Raiders. "There should be some concern about the Raiders offense, and that was even before Derek Carr got hurt. They don't have a running game and then you have Amari Cooper dropping easy catches everywhere and then they had no Michael Crabtree. It was a limited offensive attack. But in the end, they were right there and couldn't have taken the lead if Jared Cook makes that late catch in the end zone. This is a problem for Denver, the falling apart late, in three of their games when they seemed to have things in control."

One of the negative effects of the public losing last week is that some people just didn't have the liquid funds to ante up.

"Handle was off this week compared to last week, as well as the win,' said Rood. "We're about one-third of what we did last Sunday (win) heading into the late game."

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Monday's Best Bet
September 29, 2017

Monday Night Football Preview (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs

The Washington Redskins get to play under the bright lights of a primetime game for the second week in a row, and just like every other game for Washington this year, they enter as underdogs.

On SNF last week, the Redskins obliterated the Oakland Raiders from start to finish, and now they get to deal with another AFC West foe in the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL entering Week 4, as as touchdown home favorites for MNF, oddsmakers like their chances of pushing that record to 4-0 SU.

Bookmaker.eu Odds: Kansas City (-7); Total set at 49.5

Kansas City hasn't quite looked as good as they did in their opening week win over New England, but they are doing enough to get the job done. Aside from a brief stretch in the 2nd half against Philadelphia in Week 2, KC has reverted back to the dink-and-dunk, ball control team we've come to expect from them the past few years, getting outgained in total yards the last two weeks but still coming out ahead.

Last week against the Chargers, Kansas City really didn't have to open things up offensively as they played with the lead the entire way, but as we've seen from them in years past, that style of play isn't always conducive to the best results, especially against the spread.

Given the manner Washington dominated the Raiders a week ago, the Redskins are likely to garner some support at this +7 number. A fourth straight game as an underdog – with a 2-1 SU record – suggests that the Redskins are either playing above their head right now, or the overall market isn't nearly as high as they should be on this team.

Obviously, scheduling has a bit to do with the spreads they've been saddled with, but I'd lean towards the side of this team continually being undervalued by the masses. I'll let you all make that decision for yourselves though for this game as it's not the side I'm looking to bet – although gun to my head I would take the points.

This total of 49.5 is the number I'm looking to attack as much of the early week action believes this total is well too high. Given the Chiefs unwillingness to stretch the field like they did in Week 1, and the way Washington's defense suffocated Derek Carr and the Raiders offense last week, I can see why that perspective would be popular as a first reaction.

However, I'm not so sure Kansas City won't be forced to open things up in the passing game like they were in the 2nd half of their game against Philly a few weeks back. It's rare that the Chiefs first two home games of 2017 would be against non-conference rivals, but we've already seen Philadelphia and Washington play this year and they are built in a similar fashion. Both have prototypical pocket-passing QB's under center who aren't afraid to take shots to blow the top off a defense.

We have yet to really see that from Washington this year because they've been getting consistent production on the ground, but teams can pass on the Chiefs now that Eric Berry is out, as they've been outgained through the air by 60+ yards the last two weeks. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has enough receivers at his disposal to put on an air show in this game, and if he's got any level of success in doing that, Kansas City will have no choice but to get more aggressive and open things up offensively like they did against the Patriots.

So even with all the grumblings that this total is too high and the 'under' is the way to go, we've got to remember that the Chiefs are actually 2-1 O/U this year against the closing number. They've yet to ever really play from behind since Week 1, but this game against a Redskins team glowing with confidence right now is one where the Chiefs could face a multi-score deficit once again.

Opening things up isn't exactly a bad option for the Chiefs either with the likes of Tyreek Hill and his speed on their roster, and wouldn't you love to see an impromptu head-to-head battle between Hill and Washington's Terrelle Pryor as to who could catch the most deep passes here?

But when it comes down to it, this total is the highest on the board this week (outside of the New Orleans/Miami game in London) for a reason.

We've got two of the fastest receivers in the league here, two QB's who love to take shots downfield when the coaches let them go, and an AFC/NFC game that typically are ones where you want to look to the high side of the number.

Washington is 6-0 O/U in their last six on the road, 7-1 O/U after a win of 14+ points, 6-0 O/U after allowing a sub-90 yard rushing performance, 7-3 O/U in their last 10 against a team with a winning record, and 14-2 O/U after passing for 250+ yards.

It will be Cousins early on who feels like he'll have to take some shots downfield as the underdog – very similar to Alex Smith's mindset and gameplan vs. New England Week 1 – and when he ends up connecting on a few and putting up points, Andy Reid and the rest of KC's offensive coaching staff will have no choice but to turn their guys loose.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Over 49.5 points

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Opening Line Report - Week 5
October 2, 2017

The Patriots appear to have some issues. Giving up 456.8 yards per game, their defense is ranked dead last in the NFL by a wide margin. Also, Tom Brady has been sacked 13 times this season. The huge Super Bowl favorites coming into the season are just 2-2 and looking ordinary.

“Carolina’s offense before (Sunday’s 33-30 win at New England) has been very underwhelming, plus they were banged up, and they were basically able to move the ball at will, Cam Newton looked like the MVP and Jonathan Stewart looked like he was 25-years-old again,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology. “They couldn’t move the ball at home at all against the Bills and Saints, now they go on the road and move the ball like that?”

Nevertheless, for the Week 5 Thursday night game at the Buccaneers, the Pats were bet from an opening line of -4 to -5.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. The total opened 54 at CG Technology.

“The Patriots still take money every weekend. In the future book, someone made a decent five-figure bet on the Patriots at 4/1 to win the Super Bowl this week, so people are happy to bet them,” said SuperBook manager Ed Salmons. “But I don’t think the Patriots are even close to being the best team (in the league). I don’t think there’s a clear best team right now, that’s pretty obvious.”

Asked if he has long-term concerns about New England, Simbal responded, “Yes, for the first time I can remember.”

Here’s a look at the rest of the NFL Week 5 card:

Sunday, October 8

Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants (-4, 44.5)

The Westgate opened the Giants -4.5 while William Hill opened -3.5, and the two sports books met halfway at -4 for this matchup of winless teams. As of Monday morning in Las Vegas, the Chargers were available at +4.5 at a few shops for gamblers interested in the underdog.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38.5)

The Bills were adjusted from +3.5 to +3 in the first 20 minutes of wagering Sunday night at the Westgate, with other sports books falling in line at the shorter number. Based on the way their defense has been playing, the move toward the Bills makes sense. At 13.5 points allowed per game, Buffalo is No. 1 in the NFL, and they’ve put together back-to-back wins against top-level competition – home vs. Denver and at Atlanta.

While neither bookmaker we spoke to sees Buffalo as a factor in the playoffs, they’re both impressed by the Bills and envision an eight- or nine-win season in Sean McDermott’s first year as head coach.

“I’m starting to believe in them, they’re defense is definitely legit,” Salmons said. “They’re defense has played amazing. They were fortunate with Julio Jones leaving the game in the first half (of Sunday’s 23-17 win), but they really controlled Atlanta.”

Added Simbal, “They’re opening some nice holes for (LeSean) McCoy. McCoy is still one of the best four or five backs in the league, maybe even top three. Also, Tyrod Taylor makes enough plays with his legs to keep drives alive, but their defense is so good, they don’t need to score that much. If they get to 23, 24 points, like they did (Sunday), then they have a shot. They held the Falcons to 17 points in (Atlanta) – that’s pretty tough to do.”

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 39)

Cleveland opened as low as -1.5, and anything south of -3 indicates the Jets are rated higher than the Browns in the eyes of the betting market. That wasn’t the case coming into the season, as the Jets’ futures odds were historically high (as an example, they were 200/1 to win their division; the next biggest divisional longshot was Cleveland at 25/1 in the AFC North).

The Jets, though, have won two straight games, and the Browns remain winless after the 31-7 drubbing they took at home against Cincinnati.

“If (Jets-Browns) was played a week ago, (the line) would have been more,” Salmons said. “It’s just that the Jets won (Sunday) and Cleveland lost so badly, so they tried to play the line lower. I wouldn’t be surprised if that line went up just because Cleveland needs to win a game, for crying out loud. Their effort today was just a joke.”

Meanwhile, since the Jets seemed to have made moves this offseason to position themselves for a higher pick in the 2018 draft, Salmons said, “It kind of says where the league is right now, where there’s a team that’s trying to lose but they’re winning.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, 44.5)

The Steelers were bet from -8.5 to -9 at the Westgate and opened -9.5 at Coasts, as the Jags continue a brutal travel schedule – their game in London against the Ravens has been followed by road trips to New York and Pittsburgh.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Titans are looking at the possibility of having to start Matt Cassel at quarterback as Marcus Mariota’s hamstring heals.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5,43)

Andrew Luck remains out for the 1-3 Colts. The 49ers remain winless.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45)

The point-spread indicates the betting market believes Philly is the significantly better club in this matchup, but there’s also an NFL handicapping axiom at work here: West Coast teams have difficulty playing at 1:000 p.m. on the East Coast.

“There are certain spots in this league that are just terrible spots,” Salmons said. “Arizona played the late game (Sunday), and they have to travel and play the ten o’clock game on the East Coast. They essentially played a five-quarter game (they beat the 49ers 18-15 in overtime). Even though Philadelphia played on the West Coast as well today, it’s just such a hard thing for the West Coast team to have to travel and then play at 10:00 a.m. PT. That spread is always inflated because of that.”

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-3/-120, 44)

This NFC matchup features two 3-1 teams, one of which could easily be 4-0 – the Lions were incredibly unfortunate to lose at home to Atlanta in Week 3.

To Salmons, the Lions have been the best team in the NFC this season, but he’s dubious on their long-term prospects.

“It’s Detroit. It seems like they always start our decently,” Salmons said.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 46)

The Westgate opened this game pick ‘em Sunday night, but reposted it Rams -2.5 on Monday morning. If the spread holds, it will mark the first time the Rams have been favored over the Seahawks since the 2011 season.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)

Derek Carr sustained a back injury Sunday in Denver, and his status is uncertain for next week. But with the way the Ravens have been playing, the Raiders may be just fine without him.

“Baltimore is horrible,” Simbal said. “Pittsburgh was not good (even though they beat the Ravens 26-9 in Baltimore on Sunday). The Ravens have no offense, none, and that’s two weeks in a row now.”

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 52.5)

The Packers are dealing with a multitude of injuries but have a few extra days to get healthy for next week’s showdown in Dallas. The Cowboys, meanwhile, haven’t impressed the bookmakers in Las Vegas.

“I thought before the season they’d have a hard time getting over their win total (9.5). I thought they were a little overvalued, and after watching them, they’re definitely a lot overvalued,” Salmons said. “Right now, you could argue Philadelphia is better than Dallas.”

The Cowboys let a 24-13 lead over the Rams slip away Sunday and ended up losing the game, 35-30.

“I don’t like Dallas right now, I don’t like their defense,” Salmons continued. “Last year was fine when they were playing with the lead and (Dak) Prescott could pass at his own doing. When they’re behind and having to throw all the time, they’re a different team. They couldn’t get the Rams off the field in the second half.”

The injury to linebacker Sean Lee looms large, according to Simbal.

“The D can’t get a stop when they need to, and if Sean Lee’s going to miss a considerable amount of time, they’re gonna be in trouble,” he said.

On the other side of Sunday’s marquee matchup, the Packers are the class of the NFC when they’re healthy, Simbal and his bookmaking colleagues believe.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at Houston Texans

The Texans were big underdogs at home against Tennessee in Week 4 (+2.5) than they opened against Kansas City in Week 5. Of course, Houston’s 57-point outburst behind a marvelous day by Deshaun Watson got people’s attention.

“I’m not saying Deshaun Watson is MVP, but he’s got to be the best quarterback they’ve had in five or six years,” Simbal said. “That’s a perennial playoff team on the strength of their D and you know the skill players are there, so if Deshaun Watson is legit, they could end up being a contender.”

Added Salmons, “Houston’s always been a team where you’d say, ‘If they could score, they’d be a championship team,.’ But you watch (Brock) Osweiler back there and then (Tom) Savage, it was just helpless on offense. Each game Watson looks better and better and better. … You have to be impressed with what you saw out of Houston (Sunday). They look like a team you have to take seriously now.”

Monday, October 9

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

While Sam Bradford tries to makes his way back for the Vikings, quarterback Mitch Trubisky will get his first start for the Bears.

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Trends To Watch - October
October 1, 2017

Courtesy of the 2017 PLAYBOOK magazine and the well-oiled machine (aka our sports database), here are the best and worst situational roles for NFL teams during the month of October.

HOME TEAMS

Good: If there is one place you don't want to play in October, it is Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 36-16 ATS and Jacksonville (10/8) and Cincinnati (10/22) are the next two potential victims.

Keep an eye on (Good): As bad as Cleveland has been recently, they have been a solid wager at home with a 19-12 ATS record. The Browns will have three chances to improve that mark facing Cincinnati (10/1), the New York Jets (10/8) and Tennessee (10/22).

Keep an eye on (Bad): In the southern part of Ohio, the Bengals are the opposite of their rivals from north at 19-29 ATS at home and they will have Buffalo (10/8) and Indianapolis (10/29) in the Queen City.

Jacksonville has just one home contest this month and that is against the L.A. Rams on Oct. 15th, which might be a good thing with their desultory 14-24 spread record.

As good as Seattle has played for years, they are only 17-27 ATS at home this month and have matchups on the first and last Sunday's against the Colts and Houston.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): The New York Giants have gotten off to a horrible start in 2017 and will be playing catch up the rest of the season. Giants backers can take solace in that they are 30-18 ATS on the road and they will have a pair of tough tests at Tampa Bay (10/1) and at Denver (10/15).

New England plays good football almost anywhere and is 31-19 ATS in the road white's. They will be at Tampa on the first Thursday of the month and 10 days later in New Jersey to take on Gang Green.

Carolina has performed well on the road at 26-17 ATS and will get their chance to show they are truly road warriors with FOUR away contests. (@ New England, @ Detroit, @Chicago and @Tampa Bay in order). Their only home game is wedged in the middle on the 12th.

Atlanta is 30-18 ATS as visitors and this month will be a new experience, with games at New England (10/22) and at the New York Jets a week later.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona only has one true road game this month, which is good for them given its 15-28 spread record, and that will in Philly on the Oct. 8th.

As you read this, you realize the Bengals are a bad bet anywhere in October and are miserable 20-37 ATS away from home. The situation is made worse by playing Cleveland and Pittsburgh, both as you can see above are terrific at home this month.

The Seahawks are another squad that is as dreary as the weather in Seattle in October and besides ATS home woes, they are 21-36 ATS as visitors. Two trips for the Hawks, one to the Rams (10/8) and the other at the Giants (10/22)

FAVORITES

Good: Did not see this coming! Cleveland is 11-5 ATS in this role and in all likelihood will be handing out points to the Jets at home on the 8th.

Bad: With Cincy a lousy wager home and away, it would stand to reason they would not be good bet as favorites and that is true with a nauseating 12-25 ATS mark. They will have three shots at bettering that record versus the Browns (10/1), Bills (10/8) and Colts (10/29).

With the Jaguars 10-20 ATS as chalk, we will find out how much they are improved this season. They will be giving points at the Jets on the 1st and two weeks later when they host the Rams. Because we don't know Andrew Luck's status, the Oct. 22nd line is up in the air.

Seattle is abysmal 15-30 ATS giving points in Rocktober and is expected to be favored in all four contests.

Keep an eye on (Bad): The Buccaneers have been shaky 16-27 ATS favorites and will assume that role versus the G-Men (10/1), possibly at Buffalo (10/22) and conceivably against Carolina the following week.

UNDERDOGS

Good: The Steelers are sensational 23-10 ATS as underdogs and will be at Kansas City on the third Sunday of the month, with contest in Detroit iffy two weeks later.

Keep an eye on (Good): Big Blue (the Giants) is nicely profitable 23-14 ATS when receiving points and will at Tampa Bay (10/1), at Denver (10/15) and maybe at home depending on how they are playing seven days later against Seattle.

Denver shows up in this space at 21-14 ATS as a pooch and will be listed as such one day before Halloween at K.C. on a Monday. There is slight possibility they could also be dogs at the Carson Chargers. We will have to wait and see.

The Panthers as mentioned have covered many spreads on the road and that correlates to 29-16 ATS record as underdogs. They will be dogs at Gillette Stadium to start the month, a week later in the Motor City and maybe at Tampa on the 29th.

Chicago is a somewhat surprising 30-19 ATS receiving points and are thought to in that same position four times this month.

Bad: It's bad enough that San Francisco is 13-27 ATS as dogs, but with four away encounters and home game with Dallas, a death knell looms.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): The Bears are 24-13 ATS in the NFC Central and have Minnesota in town on the 9th for a Gruden Grinder.

Another bad club with division success is the Jets from the cement jungle at 27-14 ATS. They will have the Pats at home on the 15th and go for the sweep at Miami the following week.

The Chiefs have thrived in the division 21-14 ATS and are at Oakland on Thursday the 19th and 11 days afterwards, facing the Broncos.

Bad: As much as we are tired talking about how awful Cincinnati is in October, the facts don't lie with a 13-29 record in the AFC North. As stated, they have two battles with Cleveland and Pittsburgh on the road.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Indianapolis is mediocre 16-24 ATS versus the AFC South and will face two foes. The Colts have a Monday nighter at Tennessee (10/16) and six days later have Jacksonville at home.

Finally, one last mention of the Seahawks, who are 17-27 ATS in the NFC West, which stands to reason given their other sickly spread numbers. They will take on the Rams in Tinsel Town on the 8th.

[StarDust Bum]

Trends To Watch - October
October 1, 2017

Courtesy of the 2017 PLAYBOOK magazine and the well-oiled machine (aka our sports database), here are the best and worst situational roles for NFL teams during the month of October.

HOME TEAMS

Good: If there is one place you don't want to play in October, it is Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 36-16 ATS and Jacksonville (10/8) and Cincinnati (10/22) are the next two potential victims.

Keep an eye on (Good): As bad as Cleveland has been recently, they have been a solid wager at home with a 19-12 ATS record. The Browns will have three chances to improve that mark facing Cincinnati (10/1), the New York Jets (10/8) and Tennessee (10/22).

Keep an eye on (Bad): In the southern part of Ohio, the Bengals are the opposite of their rivals from north at 19-29 ATS at home and they will have Buffalo (10/8) and Indianapolis (10/29) in the Queen City.

Jacksonville has just one home contest this month and that is against the L.A. Rams on Oct. 15th, which might be a good thing with their desultory 14-24 spread record.

As good as Seattle has played for years, they are only 17-27 ATS at home this month and have matchups on the first and last Sunday's against the Colts and Houston.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): The New York Giants have gotten off to a horrible start in 2017 and will be playing catch up the rest of the season. Giants backers can take solace in that they are 30-18 ATS on the road and they will have a pair of tough tests at Tampa Bay (10/1) and at Denver (10/15).

New England plays good football almost anywhere and is 31-19 ATS in the road white's. They will be at Tampa on the first Thursday of the month and 10 days later in New Jersey to take on Gang Green.

Carolina has performed well on the road at 26-17 ATS and will get their chance to show they are truly road warriors with FOUR away contests. (@ New England, @ Detroit, @Chicago and @Tampa Bay in order). Their only home game is wedged in the middle on the 12th.

Atlanta is 30-18 ATS as visitors and this month will be a new experience, with games at New England (10/22) and at the New York Jets a week later.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona only has one true road game this month, which is good for them given its 15-28 spread record, and that will in Philly on the Oct. 8th.

As you read this, you realize the Bengals are a bad bet anywhere in October and are miserable 20-37 ATS away from home. The situation is made worse by playing Cleveland and Pittsburgh, both as you can see above are terrific at home this month.

The Seahawks are another squad that is as dreary as the weather in Seattle in October and besides ATS home woes, they are 21-36 ATS as visitors. Two trips for the Hawks, one to the Rams (10/8) and the other at the Giants (10/22)

FAVORITES

Good: Did not see this coming! Cleveland is 11-5 ATS in this role and in all likelihood will be handing out points to the Jets at home on the 8th.

Bad: With Cincy a lousy wager home and away, it would stand to reason they would not be good bet as favorites and that is true with a nauseating 12-25 ATS mark. They will have three shots at bettering that record versus the Browns (10/1), Bills (10/8) and Colts (10/29).

With the Jaguars 10-20 ATS as chalk, we will find out how much they are improved this season. They will be giving points at the Jets on the 1st and two weeks later when they host the Rams. Because we don't know Andrew Luck's status, the Oct. 22nd line is up in the air.

Seattle is abysmal 15-30 ATS giving points in Rocktober and is expected to be favored in all four contests.

Keep an eye on (Bad): The Buccaneers have been shaky 16-27 ATS favorites and will assume that role versus the G-Men (10/1), possibly at Buffalo (10/22) and conceivably against Carolina the following week.

UNDERDOGS

Good: The Steelers are sensational 23-10 ATS as underdogs and will be at Kansas City on the third Sunday of the month, with contest in Detroit iffy two weeks later.

Keep an eye on (Good): Big Blue (the Giants) is nicely profitable 23-14 ATS when receiving points and will at Tampa Bay (10/1), at Denver (10/15) and maybe at home depending on how they are playing seven days later against Seattle.

Denver shows up in this space at 21-14 ATS as a pooch and will be listed as such one day before Halloween at K.C. on a Monday. There is slight possibility they could also be dogs at the Carson Chargers. We will have to wait and see.

The Panthers as mentioned have covered many spreads on the road and that correlates to 29-16 ATS record as underdogs. They will be dogs at Gillette Stadium to start the month, a week later in the Motor City and maybe at Tampa on the 29th.

Chicago is a somewhat surprising 30-19 ATS receiving points and are thought to in that same position four times this month.

Bad: It's bad enough that San Francisco is 13-27 ATS as dogs, but with four away encounters and home game with Dallas, a death knell looms.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): The Bears are 24-13 ATS in the NFC Central and have Minnesota in town on the 9th for a Gruden Grinder.

Another bad club with division success is the Jets from the cement jungle at 27-14 ATS. They will have the Pats at home on the 15th and go for the sweep at Miami the following week.

The Chiefs have thrived in the division 21-14 ATS and are at Oakland on Thursday the 19th and 11 days afterwards, facing the Broncos.

Bad: As much as we are tired talking about how awful Cincinnati is in October, the facts don't lie with a 13-29 record in the AFC North. As stated, they have two battles with Cleveland and Pittsburgh on the road.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Indianapolis is mediocre 16-24 ATS versus the AFC South and will face two foes. The Colts have a Monday nighter at Tennessee (10/16) and six days later have Jacksonville at home.

Finally, one last mention of the Seahawks, who are 17-27 ATS in the NFC West, which stands to reason given their other sickly spread numbers. They will take on the Rams in Tinsel Town on the 8th.