The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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NFL notebook: Giants may fire McAdoo
December 3, 2017

New York Giants ownership may be ready to fire coach Ben McAdoo after Sunday's loss against the Oakland Raiders, which would come less than a week after the benching of quarterback Eli Manning created a backlash from fans.

ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter are reporting that McAdoo could be fired within 24 hours after the game. General manager Jerry Reese's standing with the 2-10 Giants is also on shaky ground but any timing on his potential departure is more uncertain than McAdoo's, ESPN reported.

Manning, who started 210 straight games for the Giants, fought back tears on Tuesday as he talked about the stunning decision by McAdoo to name Geno Smith the starting quarterback for Sunday's game.

Giants owner John Mara reportedly was not happy with how McAdoo presented the plan to the franchise's two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback.

--Indianapolis Colts running back Frank Gore moved into fifth place on the NFL's all-time rushing list during a 30-10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Gore rushed for 61 yards as he moved ahead of Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson (13,684) with a 16-yard run in the third quarter. Gore finished the day with 13,697 career rushing yards

Gore, 34, also passed another Hall of Famer in Jerome Bettis (13,662) in the second quarter of the contest. Gore spent his first 10 seasons with the San Francisco 49ers and is in his third season with the Colts.

--Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid gave up his play-calling duties for Sunday's game against the New York Jets, handing over the responsibilities to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.

The move didn't prevent the struggling Chiefs (6-6) from falling 38-31 to the Jets for their fourth straight loss and sixth in seven games.

Despite the losses, Reid has given strong support to quarterback Alex Smith. However, the veteran will be on a shorter "leash," sources told ESPN.

--Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor left the game during a 23-3 loss to the New England Patriots with a knee injury and Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White was escorted to the locker room and evaluated for a head injury during the fourth quarter.

Taylor wrapped a towel over his head as he was carted to the locker room early in the fourth quarter. He was able to walk off the field under his own power on the Bills' previous possession. It was unclear on what play Taylor got injured. He was sacked three times in the game and had three rushes.

White was injured after intercepting a Tom Brady pass along the sideline. Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski drove his shoulder into White's back while he was lying face down on the turf after the whistle. Gronkowski was penalized for unnecessary roughness on the play and apologized after the game.

--Baltimore Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith suffered a season-ending Achilles injury during the 44-20 victory over the Detroit Lions.

Ravens coach Jim Harbaugh revealed the seriousness of the injury after the contest.

Smith has been dealing with a sore Achilles for the past several weeks and went down untouched late in the second quarter with the Ravens leading 17-0.

--Los Angeles Rams linebacker Alec Ogletree exited the 32-16 victory over the Arizona Cardinals with an elbow injury.

Ogletree began the game in strong fashion, returning an interception 41 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter. He picked off a Blaine Gabbert pass and ran it back with 2:45 left in the first quarter to help give the Rams a 16-0 lead.

Ogletree flipped into the end zone and landed awkwardly, although it wasn't immediately known if that played a part in his injury.

--Minnesota Vikings backup tight end David Morgan suffered a concussion in the first quarter of a 14-9 victory over the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Falcons lost left guard Andy Levitre to a triceps injury in the first quarter.

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DECEMBER NFL BEST BETS & OPINIONS ( BASED ON 5 UNITS )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.28% -38.50


BEST BETS:......................ATS.................... ..UNITS.........................O/U....................UNITS

12/032/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50


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MNF - Steelers at Bengals
December 3, 2017

The Steelers (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) were expected to cruise against the banged-up Packers, but Pittsburgh squeezed out a 31-28 victory as 14-point favorites at Heinz Field. Chris Boswell drilled a 53-yard field goal with no time remaining to break a 28-28 tie, as the Steelers racked up 462 yards of offense to pick up their sixth consecutive victory since a 21-point home loss to Jacksonville in Week 5.

Ben Roethlisberger tossed four touchdown passes to go along with 351 yards for Pittsburgh, including two of those scores to Antonio Brown, who hauled in 169 yards on 10 catches. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed four touchdowns for the first time this season, but the Steelers fell to 0-3 ATS this season when listed as a double-digit favorite.

The Bengals (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) continue to hang around the AFC Wild Card race after picking up their second straight win last Sunday. Cincinnati took care of Cleveland, 30-16 to cash as 7 ½-point home favorites and pull off the season sweep of the Browns. Joe Mixon’s 11-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter helped aid Cincinnati with the cover, while the former Oklahoma standout produced his first ever 100-yard performance by compiling 114 yards on 23 carries.

In spite of the victory, the Bengals were outgained from a yardage standpoint for the sixth consecutive contest. Cincinnati covered for the third straight game, but Marvin Lewis’ club is seeking its first three-game winning streak since starting 8-0 in 2015.

ROAD WARRIORS

Mike Tomlin’s squad has won five of six games away from Heinz Field this season with the lone loss coming in overtime at Chicago in Week 3. The Steelers have picked up victories in each of their first two road contests against AFC North foes by beating Cleveland in Week 1 by a 21-18 count as 10-point favorites, while routing Baltimore, 26-9 in Week 4. Pittsburgh has compiled at least two divisional road wins in each of the past three seasons, while putting together a 4-3 ATS record in its last seven away AFC North contests as a favorite.

POINT THE WAY

Cincinnati is listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, but the Bengals have been a profitable team in this situation over the years. Dating back to 2013, Cincinnati owns a solid 6-1 ATS record when receiving points at Paul Brown Stadium. The only loss came to the Steelers last season as three-point ‘dogs in Week 15 in a 24-20 setback, as five of those ATS wins were also straight-up victories.

TOTAL TALK

The Steelers produced consecutive OVERS for the first time this season in last Sunday’s nail-biting win against the Packers. Pittsburgh began the season by producing the UNDER in six consecutive games before hitting the OVER in three of the past five contests. Cincinnati has been inconsistent from a totals standpoint this season as four of the first five games stayed UNDER the total, but the Bengals are currently on a 4-2 OVER run.

SERIES HISTORY

Pittsburgh has owned Cincinnati over the years by winning five straight meetings and compiling a 7-1 record since December 2013. The Steelers and Bengals were tied at 14-14 in their first meeting back in Week 7 at Heinz Field, but Pittsburgh scored the final 15 points of the game on five Boswell field goals to pick up a 29-14 victory as four-point favorites. Le’Veon Bell ran all over the Cincinnati defense for 134 yards on 35 carries, while Roethlisberger connected on a pair of touchdowns with Brown and rookie Juju Smith-Schuster.

The Steelers have also had their way against the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium by capturing four consecutive wins in the Queen City since 2014. Each of the past two wins at Cincinnati came by a combined six points, while the Bengals squandered a 20-6 lead in a 24-20 defeat last season as Roethlisberger hooked up with Eli Rogers on the go-ahead 24-yard touchdown strike in the fourth quarter.

GAME PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

1st Score of the Game
Touchdown -145
Other Score +125

Total Completions – Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 22 ½ (-110)
UNDER 22 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 1 ½ (-150)
UNDER 1 ½ (+130)

Total Rushing Yards – Le’Veon Bell
OVER 86 ½ (-110)
UNDER 86 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Andy Dalton
OVER 232 ½ (-110)
UNDER 232 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Andy Dalton
OVER 1 ½ (Even)
UNDER 1 ½ (-120)

Will A.J. Green score a touchdown?
YES +115
NO -135

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com trends expert Vince Akins provides a play-against trend on Pittsburgh, “The Steelers are 0-10-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2006 coming off a win as a favorite where they scored at least 30 points.” In each of the last three seasons, Pittsburgh has lost outright in this role, including a 30-15 setback at Miami in 2016. Akins also supplied an UNDER trend for Cincinnati, “The Bengals are 0-12 OU as a dog of more than three points coming off a home game where they scored more points than expected since 2006.”

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says the sharps favor the home team, “The public likes Pittsburgh at anything less than a touchdown, but the smart money has been on the Bengals. We’ve adjusted down a half point off the opener, and we could see the number drop even more if Antonio Brown is absent. Currently, we have more than 70 percent of the tickets on the Steelers, but the money favors Cincy 60-40.”

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 13 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Pittsburgh Steelers -5 (534)

5) New England Patriots -8.5 (605)- W

4) Minnesota Vikings +3 (744)- W

3) New Orleans Saints -4 (829)- W

2) Seattle Seahawks +6 (880)- W

1) Green Bay Packers +1.5 (1,016)- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 37-40


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Saints 31, Panthers 21— New Orleans won its 9th game in last 10 tries, sweeping season series with Panthers; they lead NFC South by a game over Carolina, two over Atlanta- they play Falcons two of next three weeks. Saints scored 30+ points in four of last five games. Carolina ran ball for only 112 yards, after running it for 213 yards/week in previous three games.

Ravens 44, Lions 20— Baltimore is 3-0 since its bye, winning by 23-7-24 points; five of their seven wins are vs backup-type QB’s, but they also KO’d Stafford here with a hand injury. Ravens are now +20 in turnovers in their seven wins, -6 in their five losses. Detroit has run ball for only 65.3 ypg the last three weeks- they’re two games out of the playoff picture now.

49ers 15, Bears 14— Niners’ kicker Robbie Gould is the Bears’ all-time leading scoring leader; he kicked five FG’s here to beat Chicago on an oddly-warm December day in the Windy City. QB Garoppolo wins his first 49ers start; he is 3-0 as an NFL starting QB. Tarik Cohen ran a punt back for a TD for Chicago, a great highlight-film type run. 49ers were one of four teams Sunday not to score an offensive TD; other three lost, by 20-5-36 points.

Vikings 14, Falcons 9— Minnesota won its last eight games, covered last seven; Case Keenum might be MVP of the freakin’ league. Vikings have another tough road game next week, agains the Panthers in Charlotte. Falcons were held to 17 or less points in their five losses- they scored 23+ in all their wins- they scored 27-34-34 points in last three games before this one.

Patriots 23, Bills 3— New England won its last eight games, covered last six; Patriots’ opponents started their last 102 drives in their own territory, the longest-such streak in over a decade. Pats have started 15 drives in enemy territory this season. Tyrod Taylor got hurt late in this game, which means Nathan Peterman probably gets another start against Indy at home next week.

Dolphins 35, Broncos 9— Denver’s offense is so pathetic, they were outscored 9-0 by the Miami defense in this game. Broncos have now lost eight games in a row (0-8 vs spread); they’ve lost field position battle by 11+ yards in five of their last six games, which is really bad. As bad a QB as Geno Smith is, he’s head and shoulders above any of Denver’s QB’s. Broncos are 0-6 on the road, 0-4 as a road underdog. I can picture Eli Manning playing there next season.

Titans 24, Texans 13— Tennessee has won six of its last seven games; they were headed for yet another tight win, leading 17-13 when they stopped Houston in their territory with 1:08 left, but then Derrick Henry broke free for a 75-yard TD with 0:46 left to give Titan backers the cover. Texans are now 1-5 in Savage starts, though Savage did pass for 365 yards in this game.

Jaguars 30, Colts 10— Indy lost six of last seven games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs, with road losses by 37-28-1-14-20 points, with win at Watson-less Houston. Jaguars were 9-15 on third down in this game, after being 12-50 in their previous three games. Colts lost six of their last seven games; hard to believe they won’t have a new coach next season.

Packers 26, Buccaneers 20— Packers’ RB Aaron Jones ran 20 yards for a walk-off TD in OT, on his first carry of the game. Tampa lost seven of its last eight games; teams really aren’t going to want to do Hard Knocks anymore- Jeff Fisher got fired last year, Bucs are 4-8 this year after their coach/GM did lot of talking this summer about how great Tampa Bay’s talent is. Packers are back at .500 and play Cleveland this week; they’re not dead yet.

Jets 38, Chiefs 31— Kansas City started season 5-0, is now in a 3-way tie atop AFC West at 6-6. Alex Smith threw for 366 yards, four TD’s in a losing cause- not often an NFL team averages over 10 yards per play and loses. Andy Reid gave up play-calling duties for this game, and that helped, but it didn’t help KC’s defense. Chiefs led this game 14-0 after 4:24, but lost in Swamp Stadium for second time in three weeks.

Chargers 19, Browns 10— Josh Gordon caught four balls for 85 yards in his first NFL game in three years, but UNTIL CLEVELAND DRAFTS A QB, they’re still going to be dreadful. Chargers have now won six of their last seven games and are tied for first place with four games left. Bolts are 28-43 on third down in their last three games.

Rams 32, Cardinals 16— Rams’ MLB/defensive QB Alex Ogletree had a pick-6 early in this game, then left game with hyperextended elbow— he didn’t play in second half. Rams’ 16-0 lead had shrunk to 16-13 late in 2nd quarter, but as usual, LA played really well in second half and won going away. Todd Gurley had 158 all-purpose yards and the special teams were terrific.

Raiders 24, Giants 17— Giants made a 52-yard FG with 1:38 left for the backdoor cover; if you wagered on the Giants here, good for you, but it was their first game since 2004 that someone other than Eli Manning started at QB. Have to keep in mind that Raiders played without their top two WR’s (Cooper/Crabtree). Three of Oakland’s last four games are on road, including games at Chiefs/Chargers- they’re tied for first place with both of them.

Seahawks 24, Eagles 10— Win puts Seattle back in playoff picture; they were outgained 425-310 in this game, but Wentz’s fumble near goal line was fatal blow for Eagles here. Philly has 4-game lead in NFC East with four weeks left, so not lot of urgency for them, other than home field/bye in playoffs. This loss snapped 9-game winning streak for Iggles. Seattle was 6-12 on 3rd down in this game, breaking a recent trend of Philly’s defense dominating on third down.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, December 4

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Steelers at Bengals
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5, 43)

The Cincinnati Bengals have won two in a row to stay within striking distance of the final playoff berth in the AFC, but they will be taking a major step up in class against a bitter rival on Monday night. Coming off wins over a pair of last-place teams in Denver and Cleveland, the Bengals will host the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers.

Cincinnati, which entered the weekend one game behind sixth-place Baltimore and Buffalo in the chase for the final wild card, was dominated by the Steelers 29-14 in Pittsburgh in Week 7. "It's another game, but it's Pittsburgh, and they're leading our division," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "They beat us up there. They're coming here, and it's a big football game for us because we don't get any more do-overs." The Steelers, who own the tiebreaker with New England for the top record in the conference, extended their winning streak to six games by rallying for a 31-28 victory over Green Bay last week. Pittsburgh has won 10 consecutive prime-time games and has beaten the Bengals five times in a row while winning its last four visits to Cincinnati (playoffs included).

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-4) - Bengals (1.5) + home field (-3) = Bengals -0.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as high as 6.5-point road chalk and money coming in on the hometown Bengals brought that line down to +4.5. The total hit the betting board at 43 and briefly was bet up half-point before returning to the opening number, where it currently sits.

WEATHER REPORT: 57 degrees and overcast throughout the game - winds 14 - 15 MPH with 18% chance of fourth quarter precipitation

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - LB James Harrison (Probable, Back), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Probable, Hamstring), WR Antonio Brown (Questionable, Toe), S Mike Mitchell (Questionable, Ankle), LB Ryan Shazier (Questionable, Ankle), CB Cameron Sutton (Questionable, Hamstring), TE Vance McDonald (Out, Ankle).

Bengals - TE Tyler Kroft (Questionable, Wrist), OT Cedric Ogbuehi (Questionable, Shoulder), LB Vincent Rey (Questionable, Hamstring), S Shawn Williams (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Nick Vigil (Questionable, Ankle), QB Jeff Driskel (Questionable, Thumb).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS, 3-8 O/U): Ben Roethlisberger, an Ohio native who is 23-4 in his home state, tossed four touchdowns for the second straight week and threw for a season-high 351 yards against Green Bay. Two of those scoring passes went to wideout Antonio Brown, who had 10 catches for 169 yards and leads the NFL in in receptions (80) and yards (1,195). Running back Le'Veon Bell, the league leader in rushing with 981 yards, rushed for 134 yards on 35 carries in the first meeting versus the Bengals and amassed 95 yards on the ground and 12 receptions a week ago. Pittsburgh's defense was gashed for three long touchdown passes by Green Bay, but it allows only 17.5 points per game and ranks No. 2 in sacks with 38.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Cincinnati has scored 30 points twice this season -- both times against the winless Browns -- as rookie running back Joe Mixon finally showed some sizzle by rushing for a season-high 114 yards and a TD and catching three passes for 51 yards. Andy Dalton has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions since the loss to the Steelers, when he was sacked four times, picked off twice and the Bengals managed a meager 19 total yards in the second half. Wideout A.J. Green has a team-high 809 receiving yards -- more than double any other Bengals player -- for an offense that ranks 32nd overall in total offense (274.3 yards) and 31st in rushing (75.6). Cincinnati is third in sacks (33) and gives up 19.5 points per game.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

* Under is 10-1 in Steelers last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

* Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 Monday games.

* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

* Steelers are 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Cincinnati.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Steelers at a rate of 67 percent and the Over is getting 65 percent of the totals action.

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NFL opening line report: Focus is on the NFC in Week 14 with several key matchups
Patrick Everson

"We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later."

Without question, the best Week 14 NFL games are in the NFC, as the playoff picture continues to evolve. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a handful of matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

New Orleans had a one-game hiccup, then got right back to its winning ways and now stands atop the NFC South. The Saints (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) saw their eight-game win streak end in Week 12 at the Los Angeles Rams, but came home Sunday and beat Carolina 31-21 as a 5.5-point chalk.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta is making things tough for itself to even get back to the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. The Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) had a nice little three-game SU and ATS win streak, then had a dismal offensive showing and lost at home to Minnesota 14-9 as a 2-point favorite in Week 13.

“Our team was anywhere from a pick ‘em to -3 for this matchup,” Cooley said. “The deuce felt like a fair number. We can see where the bettors are leaning early and adjust from there. We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later.”

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+1)

Minnesota just keeps on rolling behind a top-notch defense that ranks No. 2 in the league in scoring, allowing just 17 points per game. On Sunday, the Vikings (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went to Atlanta as a 2-point underdog and won a defensive slog 14-9.

Carolina (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won and cashed four straight heading into Sunday’s showdown with New Orleans. But the Panthers couldn’t keep it going, losing 31-21 catching 5.5 points.

“No matter how many wins, the Vikings don’t get any love from the general betting public,” Cooley said. “Sharps were on them again (against the Saints), and likely will be here, but the squares aren’t hopping aboard, so these spreads are kept somewhat at bay. Of course, you have to think Minnesota is going to stumble at some point.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Philadelphia has been the class of the NFC this season, but its impressive winning streak of nine games SU and eight games ATS finally ended Sunday night. The Eagles (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went off as 3.5-point road chalk against Seattle and lost outright, 24-10.

Los Angeles is red-hot of late, going 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven outings. The NFC West-leading Rams (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) doubled up Arizona 32-16 giving 7.5 points on the road Sunday.

With Philly having played in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu won’t post the line on this game until Monday.

“Depending on how Sunday night plays out, we could make this anywhere from a pick to L.A. a small ‘dog,” Cooley said. “If the latter happens, the Rams feel like a very live ‘dog at home. Despite the two prolific offenses, I expect to see sharp players on the under.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Kansas City started the season 5-0 SU and ATS and was 6-2 SU and ATS through eight weeks. The Chiefs (6-6 SU and ATS) haven’t won since then, dumping four in a row to fall into a three-way logjam atop the AFC West with Oakland and San Diego. On Sunday, K.C. blew a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter and ultimately lost to the New York Jets 38-31 as a 4-point road fave.

Oakland has also played far below expectations this season, but has won three of its last four (1-2-1 ATS). In Week 13, the Raiders (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) held off the New York Giants 24-17 giving 10 points at home.

“Early action from the pros has been on Oakland, which prompted a 1-point move. They really don’t like this K.C. squad right now, and it’s obvious why,” Cooley said of sharp Raiders action forcing Bookmaker down to K.C. -3.5. “That said, you know this losing streak is going to end soon, and this is a season-defining type of game for the Chiefs. Expect their best effort here.”

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Best Bet
December 4, 2017

Week 13 MNF Best Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

One of the nastiest rivalries in the NFL during the past few years takes center stage tonight as the Pittsburgh Steelers go into Cincinnati and look to sweep the Bengals away this year. A win by Pittsburgh would not only give the Steelers a 2-0 SU record against Cincy this year, but they'd keep pace with New England for 1st overall in the AFC, keep a three-game lead over Baltimore for the AFC North, with a return match against the Ravens coming up next week, and effectively end Cincinnati's slim playoff hopes.

That's quite a bit to play for if you're in the Steelers camp tonight, and given the recent history these two teams have, there shouldn't be any sort of “letdown” from either side tonight.

Bookmaker.eu Odds: Pittsburgh (-4); Total set at 43

Pittsburgh's 29-14 win over the Bengals in late October helped spark this run the Steelers have been on as that victory was two in a row for Pittsburgh at the time and they've since gone on to win four straight. That six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) is on the line in Cincinnati tonight, and it's not going to be easy to extend.

The Bengals are playing with basically their season on the line at 5-6 SU, knowing that likely only one Wildcard spot is within reach for them this year, and any loss the rest of the way in essence puts the 2017 Cincinnati Bengals on life support. A desperate team can often be a dangerous one, and there is no question that Cincinnati's precarious position is part of the reason why we've already seen money on the side in this game come that way.

This game opened up with the Steelers in the -6.5 range, but ever since late last week this number has settled around the current -4. Even some -3.5's are starting to pop up across the board as bigger bettors look to cash in on a Bengals team that's got everything to play for tonight. A Bengals ATS win would be the reverse of what cashed in the first meeting, and with the perception/reality based notion of the Steelers not being anywhere near as good on the road as they are at home, this spread probably did end up opening up a little too high.

However, it's not the side I'm looking to back – especially now with most, if not all the value sucked out of it – as this total of 43 has held rather steady the entire week. VegasInsider.com shows about a 60/40 split in favor of the 'over' for tonight's total, as a slight majority believe the 43 points we saw in the first meeting will indeed get surpassed. After all, that game was 20-14 at halftime as the Bengals were shutout in the final two frames while Pittsburgh padded their lead with three FG's. A half of sub-10 points combined is becoming more and more rare in today's NFL, and with the Bengals scoring 20+ in four of their five games since that first Pittsburgh game, and the Steelers scoring 20+ in all four of their games during that span – including back-to-back weeks of 31+ - you can see why the 'over' has actually got some significant traction for most tonight.

Yet, this is the 5th and final division rematch game of Week 13 and if you've followed along all year, you'll know that I do prefer to flip results (either ATS or totals) in these return matchups. So far that line of thought in Week 13 hasn't done great as the previous four rematch games saw the same team win ATS in three contests, while the reversing the total results ended up going 2-2. But specifically regarding tonight's Steelers/Bengals game, I do believe that flip flopping this total is the better way to bet this contest. And those 43 points in the first meeting was more than enough for that game to sail 'over' the closing total of 40.

That means we should expect this game to be relatively lower scoring and be chalk-full of all the nastiness and physical play we've come to expect from these two teams when they share a field. The Steelers perception/reality argument about them on the road does have some truth to it when discussing their results as visitors this year, as they are a perfect 0-6 O/U away from home this year and have only scored more than 21 points once (Week 1). Offensively you can't help but wonder if those Steelers playmakers may have one eye on what lies ahead for them the next two weeks (Baltimore, New England), and with guys like WR Ju Ju Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown dealing with some nagging injuries, those “footsteps” they might hear from the Bengals defenders could have Pittsburgh's attack performing at a sub-optimal level.

Taking things a step further, Pittsburgh has been a great 'under' bet on the road as they are 5-22 O/U in their last 27 away from home. This Steelers defense can clearly travel, and with a 6-20 O/U run going anywhere when playing a foe with a losing record, there may be a bit more reality to that talk about Pittsburgh's home/road splits than some Steelers fans may want to believe.

From Cincinnati's perspective, they know what's at stake for them in this game and probably know they aren't likely to beat the Steelers in a back-and-forth, shootout type game. The fact that Cincy's defense ranks 5th in the league against the pass helps them in that regard, and if this game turns into a slugfest, the Bengals should like their chances. With a 5-16 O/U run going after an ATS win, and a 4-12 O/U run going in divisional games, Cincinnati will look to their defense to step up big tonight.

So in a game where both defensive weaknesses are against the run, we've got high stakes for both sides regarding the playoff picture, and plenty of “sharp” money has already pushed the Bengals line down, there really is nowhere else to look but the under. The fact that oddsmakers have shown plenty of respect to the Bengals ATS action they've gotten so far suggests that this 'under' play may be quite correlated with that. Cincinnati just doesn't have the weapons to keep up with Pittsburgh if the Steelers offense is hitting on all cylinders, and based on how this line has moved in terms of the action it's received, that doesn't appear to be the type of game oddsmakers are expecting tonight.

Lot of running plays bleeds the clock down, and we all know about the level of physicality both teams bring to the table when they meet up. Touchdowns will be at a premium, and with drives hopefully stalling out in the redzone and FG tries following, this game tops out at 40 to 41 points.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Under 43 points

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Betting Recap - Week 13
December 4, 2017

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 13 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 7-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-4
Against the Spread 9-6

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Jets (+4, ML +170) vs. Chiefs, 38-31
Seahawks (+4, ML +170) vs. Eagles, 24-10
49ers (+2.5, ML +125) at Bears, 15-14
Vikings (+2, ML +115) at Falcons, 14-9

The largest favorite to cover
Jaguars (-10) vs. Colts, 30-10
Patriots (-8) at Bills, 23-3
Rams (-7) at Cardinals, 32-16
Titans (-7) vs. Texans, 24-13

Feeling Minnesota

-- The Minnesota Vikings passed a major test on the road against the Atlanta Falcons, winning 14-9 in a defensive battle. The Purple People Eaters are on a roll, winning eight straight while covering seven in a row. Might we see the first-ever team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium? We'll find out if the Vikings can do it in back-to-back road games with a trip to meet the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte in Week 14. The Panthers had their four-game cover streak halted with a 31-21 loss against the New Orleans Saints.

Jimmy Time

-- The San Francisco 49ers turned to QB Jimmy Garoppolo to start in Week 13 against the Chicago Bears, and his first start with the team was a success. Suddenly the Niners have won twice in the past three weeks, while the 'under' improved to 4-1 over their past five. The offense still needs work, as they have scored 15 or fewer points in five of the past six outings. But the Niners look like an NFL team again with Garoppolo at the helm. And, really, they haven't been that bad on the road this season, posting a respectable 4-2 ATS mark. They're back on the road next Sunday against the turnover-prone Houston Texans.
Total Recall

-- Vegas was expecting a shootout in Western New York in the New England-Buffalo (49) battle, but it never came into fruition. 'Over' bettors had a sinking feeling when the teams couldn't muster any touchdowns in the first half, and that bad feeling was compounded when QB Tyrod Taylor (knee) was carted off to the locker room. The Patriots picked up the pace in the third quarter with 14 points, but the teams combined for a scoreless fourth quarter and barely made it halfway to the over. The second-highest total was in the Minnesota-Atlanta (48.5) game, and that also was never threatened with 23 total points. It isn't often Vegas is way off, but these two battles weren't even close to the number.

-- The three lowest totals on the board from Sunday -- Indianapolis-Jacksonville (41), Denver-Miami (41) and San Francisco-Chicago (42) -- went 2-1 to the 'under'. The Broncos-Dolphins game featured two safeties, a rarity, to add to the scoring total. The Colts-Jaguars game just barely made it 'under', with a total of 40 points. Oddly enough, this was the first weekend all season where the NFL slate did not have at least one matchup with a total in the 30's.

-- The Chargers defense continues to impress, allowing just 10 points to the winless Browns. They have yielded just 13.9 PPG over their past seven games, which is a major reason they find themselves tied atop the AFC West despite an 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS start. The 'under' is an impressive 6-1 over the past seven for the Bolts, including 4-0 in their past four road games. They are home in Week 14 against the Redskins before they hit the road to play the Chiefs in Week 15 and Jets in Week 16.

-- The 'Over/under' finished 1-1 in the first two primetime games during Week 13, and the 'over' is 24-16 (60.0%) through the first 40 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals result still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bills QB Tyrod Taylor (knee) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots due to a knee injury, but he reportedly told sources after the game that the injury wasn't as serious and he'll have further tests. Taylor sounds optimistic about a return sooner rather than later.

-- Lions QB Matthew Stafford (hand) suffered a hand injury late in the loss at Baltimore, and he was taken to the locker room with a towel wrapped around his hand. X-rays were negative.

-- Eagles TE Zach Ertz (concussion) left for the locker room due to the league's mandated NFL concussion protocol in the the third quarter and he did not return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Falcons (-2, 54) host the Saints in Thursday's game in a key NFC South battle. Atlanta swept the two high-scoring battles last season, averaging 41.5 PPG while allowing 32.0 PPG. The last time these teams met on a Thursday was back on Nov. 29, 2012, a 23-13 victory by the Falcons as Atlanta covered at the Georgia Dome in a game which easily hit the 'under'. Five of the past seven meetings in Atlanta have resulted in 'under' results, although this will be the first meeting at the brand, spanking new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. And hey, Atlanta fans...good news...Chick-Fil-A will be open for this game!

-- First place will be on the line when the Raiders and Chiefs do battle at Arrowhead. The Chiefs will be looking to avenge a heartbreaking 31-30 loss in the Black Hole back in Week 7. It was a rare Raiders win, as the Chiefs had won the five previous meetings while going 4-2 ATS. The Chiefs have won four straight home meetings against the Raiders, while going 3-1 ATS in the meetings. The 'under' is also an impressive 8-1 in the past nine meetings in Kansas City.

-- The Ravens and Steelers will lock horns at the confluence, and Pittsburgh looks for three straight wins in the series for the first time since sweeping the two regular-season matchups and the 2009 AFC Championship Game during the 2008-09 season. The 'under' has hit in four of the past five meetings in this series, and Baltimore enters the game 4-1-1 ATS over the past six meetings. The Steelers have won just three times in the past eight meetings at Heinz Field, including a playoff game in 2015. In fact, Pittsburgh is just 5-10 SU and 5-8-2 ATS over the past 15 meetings overall in the regular season and playoffs.

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Saints bury books in Week 13
December 4, 2017

After nine consecutive wins and eight straight covers, the Eagles experienced only their second loss of the season Sunday night at Seattle which in turn helped the Las Vegas sports not lose too much, but still enough to hurt. The books were all on the ropes ready for the public knockout punch with another Eagles cover following a rough first 13 games of Sunday's week 13 action. Most books still lost, but a few were able to escape with a short profit.

"Every scenario for us in the Sunday night game is a loser with the Seahawks and Under being our best scenario," MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback said just prior to kickoff of the Seahawks eventual 24-10 win.

The Eagles had lots of live parlays waiting to cash after nearly every popular team covered the spread earlier.

"The Saints and Over were both bad for us, but not as bad as the Packers and Rams," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. However, Station books were fortunate to escape with a small win thanks to Seattle, which paid bettors +180 on the money-line.

There was no escaping the Saints' 31-21 home win against the Panthers. Every book took a beating in this battle between the NFC South where the Saints moved from 4-point favorites to -6 by kickoff.

"The Saints were our worst game of the day," said Stoneback. "The Patriots weren't as bad just because it was a morning game. If was in the afternoon it may have been worse than the Saints."

The Saints game was in the afternoon and had results branched in from the nine 10 a.m. PT games waiting to cash, and they did cash a bunch. The most popular two-team parlay of the day was Patriots to the Saints. As for New England, the Westgate's 2-to-1 Super Bowl favorite, all they did on Sunday was win 23-3 at Buffalo (+8) for its eighth straight win and sixth straight cover.

These are the type of teams the public loves to hook up in teasers and parlays and if you look at how the sports books have been faring on a few teams since Week 4, you'll wonder why anyone would bet any other team. The Eagles (8-1 ATS), Rams (7-2 ATS), Vikings (7-2 ATS), Patriots (7-2 ATS) and Saints (6-3 ATS) have combined to go an incredible 35-10 ATS since Oct. 1. The Vikings' 14-9 win at Atlanta had equal action game because the Falcons are still popular, but the public finds other teams to insert.

"The favorites only went 7-6 ATS on the day, but bettors caught most of the favorites they we're betting the most collectively such as the Saints, Patriots, Rams and Jaguars," said Stoneback. "It was just a terrible afternoon. We we're a small loser in the nine morning games, but got whalloped in the afternoon with the Rams and Saints."

Jacksonville's No. 1 defense gained public favor this week as they were 10-point home favorites against the Colts and they'd win 30-10. The Rams (-7) took care of business at Arizona with a 32-16 win to maintain it's lead in the NFC West. They get a visit from a Philly squad this week coming off a loss and a couple long west coast flights. It'll be interesting see how they bounce back and if the Rams are really serious about getting that bye in the playoffs.

Bettors knew how to stay clear of betting against the Browns this week catching +13.5 at Los Angeles against the Chargers. Cleveland lost 19-10 to cover making them 3-9 ATS and pulling them out of the bettors' gutter. After Denver's awful 35-9 loss at Miami, the Broncos (2-9-1 ATS) are now the worst cover team in the NFL. Way to go Mr. Elway, Super Bowl to toilet bowl in record time.

Anyway, the inflated point spread on the Chargers kept bettors away from picking against the Browns again.

The Giants also did the amazing to get a backdoor field goal to cut the Raiders (-9.5) lead to 24-17 with under two minutes to go. It's one of the few games to go the books way because the public absolutely hates Geno Smith. There was one game the books also thought they had that turned on them in the last seconds.

"The Titans (-7) ended up being a loser for us thanks to that play," said Stoneback of Derrick Henry's 75-yard TD run with under a minute to go to go from a 17-13 ATS loser to a 24-13 ATS win. The Texans did the same thing the Giants did by kicking a field goal when down by 10 with hopes of recovering the onside kick. Henry rolled through a sweep and just kept plowing all the way down field. It was cheered heavily by the sports book crowds.

Week 13 finished up with favorites going 7-7 ATS with five underdogs winning outright and eight of them staying Under the total. Congrats on a great week people, Merry Christmas!

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MONDAY, DECEMBER 4
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PIT at CIN 08:30 PM

PIT -4.0

O 43.0

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Opening Line Report - Bowl Games
December 4, 2017

When the South Point posted the first College Football Playoff lines in Las Vegas on Sunday, sharp money showed up on Alabama at pick ‘em vs. Clemson in the Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN). Chris Andrews, sports book director at the South Point, was happy to take that action and moved the line to Alabama -1.

Other Vegas books opened Alabama as the slight chalk, the Westgate SuperBook hanging -1 and CG Technology going -2, and the Crimson Tide are now laying points at every shop in town.

Andrews thinks the betting market has it wrong.

“I really thought Clemson should be the favorite, but I opened pick, let them (sharp bettors) take me where they want to go, but I’m comfortable needing Clemson,” Andrews said. “If I go into the game needing them, that’s fine with me.”

There are many observers among the mainstream (non-gambling) college football punditry who questioned the Selection Committee’s decision to invite to Alabama to the playoffs, suggesting the Tide are in the final four because of reputation, not so much their 2017 resume. Andrews offered a similar notion regarding the betting line.

“This is probably one of those situations where we’re thinking of the historic Alabama rather than the current Alabama,” Andrews said. “I just think Clemson’s better than them right now.”

He added, “Alabama’s been exposed a little bit. It’s probably not Nick Saban’s best team. I predicted the Auburn win (over the Tide two weeks ago, 26-14). I just thought they weren’t that great of a team this year. They rely on (quarterback) Jalen Hurts an awful lot, their defense has clusters of injuries in linebacking, and if you look around the pros there’s tons of linebackers for Alabama, so it’s always been a key part of their defense.”

Over at CG Technology, sharp money grabbed Clemson +2, prompting a move to +1.5. But it’s likely that those early bettors were shopping for the best number, rather than expressing an opinion on the game, Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at the sports book operator, said.

Simbal, in fact, said his bookmaking team’s power ratings had Alabama a 3.5-point favorite, but that’s not a number they wanted to offer on a game certain to attract immediate high-volume action, particularly since betting opened Sunday as gamblers lined up to make their NFL wagers.

“In a normal week, where you’re not going to get a ton of attention on the game right away and nobody’s going to really bet it till the day of, you can hang 3 or 3.5 there,” Simbal said. “But in this case, it’s hard to hang that number because so many people are going to be betting this right away, fans and sharps alike, that you have to build in the perception.”

This, of course, is the third season in a row in which Alabama and Clemson will have met in the postseason. Clemson has covered the spread in the previous two meetings, winning outright 35-31 as 6.5-point dogs in last season’s championship game, and cashing as 6-point dogs in a 45-40 loss two years ago.

“I thought Alabama would be a really small favorite, but I’m hesitant to bet against Clemson in a big spot,” Simbal said. “Athletically, they have the ability to keep up with Alabama, one of the few teams that can do that, so we’ll see how they do without Deshaun Watson. If I had to bet that game I’d probably take Clemson.”

Rose Bowl - Georgia vs. Oklahoma (-1)
Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN

The early Rose Bowl betting sentiment has been on underdog Georgia, as the line opened between Oklahoma -2 and -2.5, before drifting to -1 at most shops and even to pick ‘em at MGM Resorts.

CG opened Oklahoma -2.5 but moved to -1.5 after writing a sharp money-line play on Georgia.

The most appropriate number on this game is Oklahoma -1.5, Andrews believes, although he opened -2.

“If a wiseguy bet me -2, I would have gone right to -3, and conversely, if a wiseguy bet me +2, I would have gone to 1,” Andrews said. “Just in that area off an opening number, you move things a little more quickly.” While no respected money showed up on either side, an abundance of smaller bets on the dog prompted the South Point to move to Oklahoma -1.

“We didn’t have any big bets on the dog, but it was just kind of trickling in,” Andrews said, “so it looked like at this point in time, people were either going to bet Georgia or they were going to pass.”

Simbal, though, expects most casual bettors to back Oklahoma as game day approaches.

“I think we’re going to end up needing Georgia because the public is in love with Oklahoma,” Simbal said. “(Baker) Mayfield is a pretty popular player and they’ve been so hot ever since the Iowa State loss, and in hindsight that Iowa State loss wasn’t as bad as we thought at the time.”

Here’s a peek at some other intriguing bowl matchups:

Cotton Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State (-6.5)
Dec. 29, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

There’s a consensus on the Cotton Bowl, as Ohio State -6.5 is the number being dealt throughout Las Vegas, with no action significant enough for early adjustments.

Fiesta Bowl - Washington vs. Penn State (-3)
Dec. 30, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN

Penn State’s been as high as -4.5 and as low as -2 offshore, but the line has settled at a field goal in Vegas.

Orange Bowl - Wisconsin (-6.5) vs. Miami
Dec. 30, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Respect for the Big Ten continues, with the Badgers listed as substantial favorites in what’s essentially a home game for Miami.

Outback Bowl - South Carolina vs. Michigan (-10)
Jan. 1, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2

There’s been a strong early move on Michigan, as the Wolverines opened -7 at the Wynn and have been bet to between -9.5 and -10 around town.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl - Central Florida vs. Auburn (-10)
Jan. 1, 12:30 p.m. , ESPN

Doubt abounds around unbeaten Central Florida as they take a major step up in class. Auburn can be found for -9.5 at some betting locales.

Citrus Bowl - LSU (-2.5) vs. Notre Dame
Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET, ABC

Wiseguys are on LSU early, driving the line at the Wynn to Tigers -2.5 after Notre Dame opened the 1-point chalk. LSU is laying as many as 3 at some shops.

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december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )

date w-l-t % units record

12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50

best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units

12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50

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NFL opening line report: Focus is on the NFC in Week 14 with several key matchups
Patrick Everson

"We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later."

Without question, the best Week 14 NFL games are in the NFC, as the playoff picture continues to evolve. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a handful of matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

New Orleans had a one-game hiccup, then got right back to its winning ways and now stands atop the NFC South. The Saints (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) saw their eight-game win streak end in Week 12 at the Los Angeles Rams, but came home Sunday and beat Carolina 31-21 as a 5.5-point chalk.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta is making things tough for itself to even get back to the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. The Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) had a nice little three-game SU and ATS win streak, then had a dismal offensive showing and lost at home to Minnesota 14-9 as a 2-point favorite in Week 13.

“Our team was anywhere from a pick ‘em to -3 for this matchup,” Cooley said. “The deuce felt like a fair number. We can see where the bettors are leaning early and adjust from there. We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later.”

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+1)

Minnesota just keeps on rolling behind a top-notch defense that ranks No. 2 in the league in scoring, allowing just 17 points per game. On Sunday, the Vikings (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went to Atlanta as a 2-point underdog and won a defensive slog 14-9.

Carolina (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won and cashed four straight heading into Sunday’s showdown with New Orleans. But the Panthers couldn’t keep it going, losing 31-21 catching 5.5 points.

“No matter how many wins, the Vikings don’t get any love from the general betting public,” Cooley said. “Sharps were on them again (against the Saints), and likely will be here, but the squares aren’t hopping aboard, so these spreads are kept somewhat at bay. Of course, you have to think Minnesota is going to stumble at some point.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Philadelphia has been the class of the NFC this season, but its impressive winning streak of nine games SU and eight games ATS finally ended Sunday night. The Eagles (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went off as 3.5-point road chalk against Seattle and lost outright, 24-10.

Los Angeles is red-hot of late, going 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven outings. The NFC West-leading Rams (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) doubled up Arizona 32-16 giving 7.5 points on the road Sunday.

With Philly having played in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu won’t post the line on this game until Monday.

“Depending on how Sunday night plays out, we could make this anywhere from a pick to L.A. a small ‘dog,” Cooley said. “If the latter happens, the Rams feel like a very live ‘dog at home. Despite the two prolific offenses, I expect to see sharp players on the under.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Kansas City started the season 5-0 SU and ATS and was 6-2 SU and ATS through eight weeks. The Chiefs (6-6 SU and ATS) haven’t won since then, dumping four in a row to fall into a three-way logjam atop the AFC West with Oakland and San Diego. On Sunday, K.C. blew a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter and ultimately lost to the New York Jets 38-31 as a 4-point road fave.

Oakland has also played far below expectations this season, but has won three of its last four (1-2-1 ATS). In Week 13, the Raiders (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) held off the New York Giants 24-17 giving 10 points at home.

“Early action from the pros has been on Oakland, which prompted a 1-point move. They really don’t like this K.C. squad right now, and it’s obvious why,” Cooley said of sharp Raiders action forcing Bookmaker down to K.C. -3.5. “That said, you know this losing streak is going to end soon, and this is a season-defining type of game for the Chiefs. Expect their best effort here.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 14
Monty Andrews

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 47.5)

Raiders' ragged secondary vs. Chiefs' elite ball security

The AFC West is officially the craziest division in the NFL, with three teams tied for the division lead as we enter the final four weeks of the regular season. This week's encounter between the streaking Raiders and the tumbling Chiefs will have a significant impact on how the final standings play out - and despite Kansas City having squandered what was a comfortable lead just a month ago, it has a sizeable edge in this one when it comes to retaining possession on offense.

The Oakland pass defense is a major reason why the Raiders are sitting at .500 through 13 weeks rather than leading the division by several games. By any measure, Oakland has struggled mightily to contain opposing signal callers, surrendering 20 pass touchdowns with just one interception; only one other team, the Atlanta Falcons (three), have fewer than five INTs. In addition, Oakland's 108.2 passer rating against is easily the worst in football.

Despite Kansas City's recent struggles, don't expect the Raiders secondary to suddenly look like world beaters against Alex Smith. The Chiefs have perennially been one of the lowest-turnover offenses in football with Smith at the helm, and 2017 is no exception - Kansas City has thrown just six interceptions, tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. Look for Smith to pick apart Oakland's pass defense, which should at least give the Chiefs a fighting chance of ending their four-game losing skid.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 40.5)

Packers' red-zone proficiency vs. Browns' broken defense

No Aaron Rodgers? No problem - okay, several problems, but not as many as fans and bettors thought after the Packers lost their franchise quarterback to a collarbone injury in a Week 6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay evened its record at 6-6 with an impressive 26-20 overtime win over Tampa Bay, and with Rodgers due back later this month, a postseason spot remains in play. The Packers will look to improve their chances this week by exploiting a major edge in red-zone play against winless Cleveland.

If there is one area where Green Bay has remained as potent as ever, it is in turning red-zone opportunities into six points. The Packers come into Week 14 with a success rate of nearly 65 percent inside the opponents' 20-yard line, the third-best rate in the league. That red-zone proficiency was on full display in last week's victory over the Buccaneers, when Aaron Jones ran in his only carry from the Tampa Bay 20-yard line to give the Packers a critical victory.

The Browns have been halfway decent at limiting opponent yardage (327.2, 10th in NFL), but are lagging behind in just about every other defensive metric. That includes red-zone points against, with Cleveland having allowed a touchdown on 68.6 percent of foes' trips inside their 20 - the second-worst rate in the NFL. The Browns' chances of earning win No. 1 will likely hinge on their ability to hold Green Bay to field goals - and if that's the case, bettors shouldn't hold their breath.

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3, 43)

49ers' third-down troubles vs. Texans' punt-forcing prowess

A two-game losing skid and a date with a suddenly improving San Francisco team has the host Texans staring at a minuscule edge in the Vegas line this weekend. Yet, despite having lost four of its past five games to guarantee a non-winning season, Houston is still in good position heading into Week 14. Not only have the Texans prevailed in two of their previous three home games, but they have been a force on third downs - and the 49ers, for lack of a more eloquent turn of phrase, have not.

Perhaps the switch at quarterback from C.J. Beathard to Jimmy Garoppolo will mean great things for the 49ers on third down - after all, they went a stunning 10-for-18 in such situations in Garoppolo's first start in the red and gold. But one game is just that - and if you look at the season, San Francisco is still converting just 36.3 percent of third downs, good for 26th out of 32 teams. And getting to third down 18 times against the Texans probably won't turn out nearly as well for Garoppolo and the visitors.

Only five teams have been stingier on third down than the Texans, who have forced a punt or fourth-down try on 65.9 percent of opponent opportunities. Houston has been even tighter over the previous three games, allowing teams to extend drives or score on just 31.4 percent of third-down chances. And with opponents converting just 32.4 percent of their third-down opportunities at NRG Stadium, it could be a long afternoon for Garoppolo and the rest of the San Francisco offense.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 44)

Ravens' ball-hawking skills vs. Big Ben's interception troubles

The Ravens still have a shot at the NFC North title - albeit a small one - as they prepare to visit Ben Roethlisberger and the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. Baltimore did its part to remain in the hunt with a 44-20 drubbing of the Detroit Lions - its third consecutive victory - and will be looking to atone for a 26-9 loss to the Steelers in their previous meeting Oct. 1. Even though Heinz Field is Big Ben's personal playground, the Ravens have the secondary to make life miserable for him.

The Ravens continue to lead the NFL in interceptions with 20 - four more than the runner-up Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars. And while it's fair to note that eight of those picks came in Baltimore's first two games - specifically, four each against the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns - the Ravens are still a top-six interception unit even if they hadn't recorded an INT in either of those contests. Opponents throw a pick on 5.14 percent of passing plays vs. Baltimore.

Roethlisberger escaped with just one interception in the Steelers' Week 4 triumph in Baltimore, but that was largely because his team ran the ball an unbelievable 42 times in the victory. Pittsburgh passers - yes, plural, thanks to Robert Golden's 44-yard completion in a Week 7 win over Cincinnati - come into this weekend with (12) interceptions, the seventh-most of any team. And with the Ravens looking to make up for their earlier loss, Pittsburgh might want to fire up 35 more carries for Le'Veon Bell.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 7

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NEW ORLEANS (9 - 3) at ATLANTA (7 - 5) - 12/7/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 10

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DETROIT (6 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 8) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 9) at CINCINNATI (5 - 7) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 13-33 ATS (-23.3 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 9) at BUFFALO (6 - 6) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (8 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (8 - 4) - 12/10/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 67-37 ATS (+26.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (6 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 6) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 33-59 ATS (-31.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 32-56 ATS (-29.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (10 - 2) at CAROLINA (8 - 4) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 112-83 ATS (+20.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
MINNESOTA is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (6 - 6) at CLEVELAND (0 - 12) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 186-131 ATS (+41.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-38 ATS (+24.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 10) at HOUSTON (4 - 8) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (5 - 7) at LA CHARGERS (6 - 6) - 12/10/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (5 - 7) at DENVER (3 - 9) - 12/10/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DENVER is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
DENVER is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
DENVER is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
DENVER is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (8 - 4) at ARIZONA (5 - 7) - 12/10/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 48-27 ATS (+18.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
ARIZONA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (10 - 2) at LA RAMS (9 - 3) - 12/10/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
LA RAMS is 183-228 ATS (-67.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 183-228 ATS (-67.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 131-180 ATS (-67.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 142-180 ATS (-56.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 62-93 ATS (-40.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (6 - 6) at NY GIANTS (2 - 10) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 37-60 ATS (-29.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (7 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 2) - 12/10/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 104-74 ATS (+22.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 11

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 2) at MIAMI (5 - 7) - 12/11/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 62-39 ATS (+19.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MIAMI is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 7

NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Atlanta's last 17 games at home


Sunday, December 10

SAN FRANCISCO @ HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home

OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Oakland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

CHICAGO @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games

GREEN BAY @ CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 11 games at home
Cleveland is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games at home

DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

DALLAS @ NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Dallas's last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games

WASHINGTON @ LA CHARGERS
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

TENNESSEE @ ARIZONA
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 18 games at home

NY JETS @ DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets

SEATTLE @ JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games

PHILADELPHIA @ LA RAMS
Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home


Monday, December 11

NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 11 games at home