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  • Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
    November 11, 2016


    Las Vegas sports books took so much sharp action on the Browns inflated number Thursday night that they were able to withstand all the NBA favorite parlays attached to the Ravens and show a profit for the day. The public has been rolling with a few teams every week, and betting against the Browns has been part of the wining formula.

    "I saw a tweet come out last night after the Browns loss that if you just bet against the Browns and 49ers along with betting on the Patriots and Cowboys, you would be 29-5 against-the-spread," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said Friday afternoon. "I didn't believe it, but I checked it out and its true. That's incredible."

    The books avoided getting burned on the terrible Browns again by increasing the spread by nearly 30 percent of what it should have been and the plan worked. One down and three to go with the most popular popular teams and there is reason to suggest Sunday's Week 10 action might turn out better than the past three weeks.

    "This weekend we have a good chance with the Cowboys and Patriots both playing tougher competition," Simbal said. 'Really, the entire card is outstanding with some great match-ups. It looks like the best lineup of the season so far."

    The two teams that are each 7-1 ATS are still getting the most action at Simbal's seven books across town.

    "The Cowboys and Patriots have been getting all the action so far," he said. "We opened the Steelers -3 and have gone down to -2.5 with mostly just smaller square action taking the Cowboys. When when went to -2.5, I thought we might get some sharp play on the Steelers, but it hasn't happened.

    "We have 10-times more action on the Patriots than the Seahawks. We opened the Patriots -6.5 and it lasted only a minute until going to -7 and we're at -7.5 now and still no Seahawks action. This number can only go up. It may take +8 or +8.5 for us to get Seattle money."

    William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported that 34 percent of all action wagered on the NFL this week has been on the Seahawks-Patriots game, and 75 percent of that action has been on the Patriots and 85 percent of the tickets written have also been on them.

    "Another game we're not in a great spot with is the Falcons," Simbal said. "We had taken a large bet on the Eagles at pick 'em and as soon as it went to Eagles -1, they totally hit the Falcons hard pushing them to a -1.5 favorite. The Falcons are also one of the favorite public plays."

    The most feared public parlay of Sunday for the books has the Patriots, Cowboys, Falcons and Packers, which the books can't make up when paying out 10/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,000). And they also have carryover risk the Ravens tied into those teams meaning 20/1 payouts will be ready to cash with 5-teamers if they all cover.

    "The Broncos-Saints match-up looks like a fun game," Simbal said. "We opened the Saints -2 and sharps laid it and also -2.5, but since we've been at -3, we've had great two-way action."

    The other half of the ugly-two is the 49ers, and like the Browns Thursday, the price is over-inflated. But betting against San Francisco pays off as they've failed to cover its last seven games.

    "They're not betting the Cardinals (-14) yet. It's actually the least wagered game of the day, but it's a late start and it'll be popular among the three starting after the 1:00 p.m. ET games."

    Simbal's also had action on two crummy match-ups.

    "A couple of the not-so-attractive games on the day have received some attention with sharps moving the Bears from pick 'em to -2 (-120) and the Jaguars from +1 to -1 (-115)."

    Things always turn in favor of the sports books as they increase spreads, but the public has a hot hand right now rolling the dice and they have no fear of any inflated number.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • Gridiron Angles - Week 10
      November 12, 2016



      NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

      -- The Vikings are 13-0 ATS (9.81 ppg) since Sep 15, 2013 as a road dog with a total under 46.

      NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

      -- The Titans are 0-14-1 ATS (-6.57 ppg) since Dec 20, 2009 after they scored 10+ points more than their season-to date average.

      NFL PLAYER TREND:

      -- The Steelers are 7-0 OU (11.00 ppg) since Dec 08, 2013 after a road loss where Ben Roethlisberger threw at least 35 passes.

      NFL O/U OVER TREND:

      -- The Eagles are 12-0 OU (11.92 ppg) since Dec 11, 2005 at home off a game as a dog where they suffered a loss and ATS loss.

      NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

      -- The Chiefs are 0-10 OU (-13.15 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 after a game where they had no more than 15 first downs.

      NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

      -- The Packers are 11-0 ATS on the road after a loss in which they outgained their opponent.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • SuperContest Picks - Week 10
        November 12, 2016


        The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

        Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

        The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

        This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

        Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

        Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

        Week 10

        1) Pittsburgh -2.5 (671)

        2) New Orleans -2.5 (550)

        3) Atlanta PK (538)

        4) Green Bay -2.5 (521)

        5) Carolina -3 (417)

        SUPERCONTEST WEEK 10 MATCHUPS & ODDS

        Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

        Cleveland (+9.5) 169 Baltimore (-9.5) 39

        Houston (-1.5) 304 Jacksonville (+1.5) 406

        Kansas City (+3) 282 Carolina (-3) 417

        Denver (+2.5) 272 New Orleans (-2.5) 550

        Los Angeles (+1.5) 134 N.Y. Jets (-1.5) 249

        Atlanta (PK) 538 Philadelphia (PK) 408

        Minnesota (+3) 321 Washington (-3) 374

        Green Bay (-2.5) 521 Tennessee (+2.5) 164

        Chicago (PK) 320 Tampa Bay (PK) 310

        Miami (+4) 226 San Diego (-4) 412

        San Francisco (+13.5) 101 Arizona (-13.5) 259

        Dallas (+2.5) 356 Pittsburgh (-2.5) 671

        Seattle (+7.5) 373 New England (-7.5) 353

        Cincinnati (+2) 376 N.Y. Giants (-2) 240

        WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
        Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
        1 3-2 3-2 60%
        2 0-5 3-7 30%
        3 0-5 3-12 20%
        4 1-4 4-16 20%
        5 3-2 6-14 30%
        6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
        7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
        8 3-2 11-23-1 32%
        9 2-3 13-26-1 33%
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • Pick Six - Week 10
          November 12, 2016


          Week 9 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
          Overall Record: 27-27 SU, 24-28-1 ATS

          Review: The Cowboys and Giants came through as favorites, while the Colts cashed outright as a road underdog at Green Bay. The Rams pushed in a three-point loss to the Panthers, while the Vikings fell in overtime to the Lions.

          Chiefs at Panthers (-3, 44) – 1:00 PM EST

          Kansas City
          Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 6-2 UNDER
          Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

          The Chiefs split their first four games of the season, but Kansas City is riding a four-game winning streak, capped off by an ugly home victory over Jacksonville last Sunday. Nick Foles started in place of the injured Alex Smith at quarterback, as Foles led the Chiefs to the end zone only once, while Kansas City needed four field goals in a 19-14 win as seven-point favorites. Smith is expected back under center on Sunday as the Chiefs are listed as an underdog for the second time this season, losing to the Steelers in Week 4 in their other opportunity as a ‘dog.

          Carolina
          Record: 3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, 5-3 OVER
          Super Bowl Odds: 45/1

          The Panthers lost just once in the 2015 regular season, but won only one game through the first six contests this season. Carolina is looking to make a run by beating Arizona and Los Angeles the last two weeks, as the Panthers are facing their second AFC West opponent this season. The first interconference game didn’t work out for Carolina in a 21-20 opening week loss at Denver, as Carolina has cashed once in its last four chances against AFC opponents at home since 2014.

          Best Bet: Kansas City +3

          Broncos at Saints (-3, 49) – 1:00 PM EST


          Denver
          Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 OVER
          Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

          The Broncos remain in the mix for the AFC West title in spite of last Sunday’s loss at Oakland. Denver starts Week 10 one game behind Oakland in the division after a 30-20 defeat at Coliseum as the Broncos were outrushed, 218-33. Denver is making its first trip to the Superdome since 2004 as the Broncos dropped 530 yards on New Orleans in its previous matchup in 2012 in a 34-14 blowout at Sports Authority Field.

          New Orleans
          Record: 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS, 5-3 OVER
          Super Bowl Odds: 85/1

          Following an 0-3 start, the Saints have come back to life by winning four of its past five games. New Orleans dominated San Francisco last Sunday as five-point favorites, 41-23, while racking up 571 yards on the 49ers’ awful defense. The Saints have covered five consecutive games, including the last two in the role of a home underdog. New Orleans has struggled in the home favorite role at 0-2 SU/ATS with losses to Oakland and Atlanta, while losing four of its past six contests against AFC foes.

          Best Bet: Denver +3

          Falcons (-1 ½, 50) at Eagles – 1:00 PM EST


          Atlanta
          Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 8-1 OVER
          Super Bowl Odds: 13/1

          The Falcons have rebounded from a two-game skid to win each of their last two contests to sit atop of the NFC South at 6-3. Atlanta dominated Tampa Bay in Week 9 as 4 ½-point favorites, 43-28 to eclipse the 40-point mark for the third time this season. Matt Ryan tossed at least three touchdown passes for the fifth time in 2016, including the third instance on the road against the Bucs. Although Atlanta covered last week, the Falcons own a 2-10 ATS record as a favorite since the start of last season.

          Philadelphia
          Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 OVER
          Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

          The Eagles should be thrilled to be back at Lincoln Financial Field after losing each of the past two weeks inside the division to the Cowboys and Giants. Philadelphia has lost four of five road games, but has compiled a 3-0 home record, including victories as an underdog against Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Carson Wentz threw for a career-high 364 yards in last Sunday’s 28-23 loss at New York, but was intercepted twice. The rookie of North Dakota State owns a 5/2 touchdown to interception ratio at home, while the Eagles haven’t allowed more than 10 points in a game at home this season.

          Best Bet: Philadelphia + 1 ½

          Vikings at Redskins (-2 ½, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


          Minnesota
          Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 6-2 UNDER
          Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

          The Vikings are in the midst of a free-fall following a 5-0 start by losing three straight games. In the three losses (all in the favorite role), Minnesota’s offense mustered a total of 36 points, while falling in overtime to Detroit last Sunday, 22-16. The Vikings’ defense has done its part by allowing four offensive touchdowns in the last three games in regulation, but Minnesota hasn’t rushed more than 93 yards in any of its three defeats. Minnesota is flipped into the underdog role this week, as the Vikings have posted a terrific 14-2 ATS record in its past 16 opportunities when receiving points.

          Washington
          Record: 4-3-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
          Super Bowl Odds: 90/1

          The Redskins are back from the bye week following an unimpressive result in London, a 27-27 tie with the Bengals. Washington has work to do to catch Dallas in the NFC East, but the Redskins are still in the Wild Card mix after winning four of its past six games. The Redskins will be without one of their big offensive threats as wide receiver DeSean Jackson is sidelined with a shoulder injury. Washington has stumbled to a 2-9 ATS record under Jay Gruden in the favorite role, including a home loss to Dallas back in Week 2.

          Best Bet: Minnesota +2 ½

          Dolphins at Chargers (-4, 48 ½) – 4:05 PM EST


          Miami
          Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 OVER
          Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

          The Dolphins embark on a two-game swing to southern California that will keep Miami out west for the next week. Miami heads to Los Angeles in Week 11, but first the Dolphins need to take care of the Chargers and keep their winning streak alive. The Dolphins started 1-4, but have won three consecutive games, including recent home divisional victories over the Bills and Jets. Miami has yet to pick up a road win this season (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS), while last winning at Qualcomm Stadium in 2005 (0-3 SU/ATS last three visits).

          San Diego
          Record: 4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 OVER
          Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

          The Chargers are several plays away from sitting above the .500 mark and really having a legitimate shot at the AFC West title. San Diego needs to go on a run to capture a Wild Card spot, but the Bolts have played better recently by winning three of their past four games. The Chargers pulled away from the Titans last Sunday in a 43-35 triumph as running back Melvin Gordon posted his second straight 100-yard game, while the defense scored a pair of touchdowns. Last season, the Chargers closed the season with four consecutive UNDERS at home, but San Diego has cashed the OVER in three of four games at Qualcomm Stadium in 2016.

          Best Bet: San Diego -4

          Cowboys at Steelers (-2 ½, 50) – 4:25 PM EST


          Dallas
          Record: 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
          Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

          The Cowboys own the longest winning streak in the NFL at seven games following their opening week one-point defeat to the Giants. Dallas rolled Cleveland last Sunday, 35-10, as the Cowboys have held five of their last six opponents to 17 points or less. Dak Prescott continues to make his case as starting quarterback by throwing three touchdown passes against the Browns, while getting intercepted only twice in eight games. The Cowboys have won four of their past five road games against AFC opponents, as Dallas is making its first trip to Pittsburgh since a 20-13 loss at Heinz Field in 2008.

          Pittsburgh
          Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 UNDER
          Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

          The Steelers jumped out of the gate with a solid 4-1 mark, but have fallen backwards by losing three in a row. Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee in a loss at Miami and although he returned last week at Baltimore, the Steelers haven’t scored more than 16 points in any of the past three losses. Pittsburgh has won 10 consecutive regular season home games in the favorite role since 2014, including a 3-0 SU/ATS record this season. The Steelers have fared well against NFC foes at Heinz Field since 2011, going 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS, including a 2-0 SU/ATS mark last season.

          Best Bet: Pittsburgh -2 ½
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • Total Talk - Week 10
            November 12, 2016


            The ‘over’ went 8-5 last weekend and is now 17-9 (65%) over the past two weeks. A lot of team total ‘over’ tickets cashed as well with eight clubs scoring 30 or more points and three of those teams put up 40-plus points. Through nine weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ holds the edge with a 72-60-1 (55%) record.

            Divisional Action

            There are only two divisional games scheduled in Week 10 and they’re certainly not must-see matchups but we do have some angles to check out.

            Houston at Jacksonville: Even though this game has a low number (42), bettors should be aware that the first five AFC South games have went ‘over’ the number this season. Even with that angle, it’s tough to make a case for the high side on this game from what we’ve seen between this pair so far. Houston hasn’t won on the road (0-3) and it’s scored a total of 22 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are winless at home and their averaging 18.7 points per game. We’ve seen the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 in the last eight games in this series.

            San Francisco at Arizona: The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 5-0 this season at home yet the oddsmakers have posted a total of 48 for this week’s matchup versus San Francisco. The Cards beat the 49ers earlier this season, notching a 33-21 road win in a Thursday matchup and the ‘over’ (42 ½) connected with a big second-half behind backup QB Drew Stanton. The 49ers defense (32.5 PPG) is the worst in the league and the porous unit has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2 this season.

            Coast-to-Coast

            This popular total trend is in play again this weekend with not one but two games. If you’re a new reader to Total Talk, then let’s bring you up to speed.

            West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone have seen the ‘over’ go 10-0 this season and if you include the results from last season, the ‘over’ is 21-5 (81%) when these situations arise. I’m not sure what the rhyme or reason is for these lopsided results but be aware of it and follow or fade at your own discretion.

            Los Angeles at N.Y. Jets: Lowest total (40) on the board. The L.A. offense (18.4 PPG) has been better on the road and the Rams scored a season-high 37 at Tampa Bay in Week 3 and also posted 28 at Detroit in Week 6.

            Seattle at New England: (See Below)

            I’ve also been charting the East Coast teams playing in the Pacific Time Zone and the ‘over’ has gone 5-4 in those situations. Miami will fall into this situation this weekend at San Diego and then again in Week 11 at Los Angeles.

            Fifty Something

            We had two totals close in the fifties last week and they both saw the ‘over’ connect. As of Saturday morning, there are four matchups hovering right around 50 and bettors are leaning to the high side according to the latest trends. Here’s my quick handicap on the totals.

            Denver at New Orleans (49 ½): The classic offense vs. defense matchup takes place in the Superdome. The Broncos looked suspect against the Raiders last week and not having defensive back Aqib Talib (doubtful) doesn’t help the cause. The Saints have been installed as home favorites and they’re 0-2 in that role this season, allowing 35 and 45 points. In two trips East this season, Denver scored 29 and 27 respectively at Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.

            Atlanta at Philadelphia (50): The Falcons have been the best ‘over’ team (8-1) in the league but I’m not fond of this spot for them on Sunday, especially against a desperate Eagles team that has only allowed 23 total points in three home games this season.

            Green Bay at Tennessee (50): Based on the current form for each team, this could be a shootout. Green Bay has allowed 30-plus in three of its last four games and the offense (25 PPG) has kept close to that number during this stretch. Tennessee’s defense started the season on fire but it’s been a mess lately. The Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 this season and that includes a 4-1 mark in Nashville. Make a note that Tennessee has allowed a league-high seven non-offensive touchdowns this season and as you know, those scores are daggers for ‘under’ wagers.

            Dallas at Pittsburgh (49 ½): A lot of money has come in on Dallas and it’s hard to argue against them on paper when you look at the Steelers defense. Pittsburgh’s secondary has been diced up this season (276 YPG) and the pass rush has only 11 sacks, ranked last in the league. The Steelers have seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 on the season with the two ‘over’ winners coming at Heinz Field.

            Under the Lights

            The ‘over’ went 3-0 in the primetime games last week and those results also snapped the impressive ‘under’ run on MNF. Including this past Thursday’s result from the Cleveland-Baltimore matchup, the ‘under’ has gone 15-12-1 (56%) in night games this season.

            Seattle at New England: Based on the early betting report, the books need the Seahawks to win this game and they’ll likely need the ‘under’ to cash as well. The Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 5-3 this season, which includes a 2-2 mark with QB Tom Brady. The New England offense (34 PPG) has been sharp since he returned but Seattle’s defense (16.8 PPG) will be the best unit he’s faced. The Patriots scoring defense (16.5 PPG) is better than the ‘Hawks yet we’re looking at total (48 ½) and that could have you scratching your head. Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 on the road in its last eight games versus AFC foes and its defense hasn’t been great, allowing 22.3 PPG. Meanwhile, New England has averaged 30.1 PPG in its last eight home games versus NFC foes. Including the outcome in Super Bowl 49, the last four encounters between the pair have gone ‘over.’

            Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants: This total (47) seems a tad high considering the Bengals (20.9 PPG) and Giants (20.1) have both regressed offensively this season. New York has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its home games this season and Cincinnati enters this game on a 3-0 run to the high side. Cincinnati is off the bye and has only averaged 16.7 PPG in its last three games with rest. Cincinnati (5-9) hasn’t been great in night games with QB Andy Dalton and this will be their first primetime game of the season.

            Fearless Predictions


            I almost managed a split last week but Cleveland failed to score in the second-half, which has become a common theme (51 points in 10 games) for Hue Jackson and company this season. The weekly deficit wound up in the red ($220) and so is the overall bankroll ($240). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

            Best Over: San Francisco-Arizona 48

            Best Under: Kansas City-Carolina 44 ½

            Best Team Total: Over Denver 23

            Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

            Under 59 Atlanta-Philadelphia
            Over 40 ½ Denver-New Orleans
            Over 39 San Francisco-Arizona
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • SNF - Seahawks at Patriots
              November 10, 2016


              The New England Patriots (7-1 straight up, 7-1 against the spread) are on their way to an eighth straight division title with a clear path to home field in the AFC as they've won and covered seven of eight games this season, including all four since quarterback Tom Brady returned from his silly suspension. On Sunday night they figure to get their toughest test of the season as the Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) visit with the Patriots, who are 7.5-point favorites and a total set at 49.

              This will be their first meeting since Super Bowl 49 when the Patriots won 28-24 as one-point favorites. It will be the second time this season the Seahawks have been underdogs, the first coming at Arizona (-2,5) and ending in a 6-6 draw. It's also the largest spread Seattle has faced since a 2012 game at San Francisco (-7.5) that they lost 13-6, but got the cover.

              Since Brady returned, New England has won all four games by an average score of 34-17 beating an average spread of -7.5, and bettors have been loving it with tickets written on their side multiplying each week of Brady's vengeance tour. The sports books have been getting beat the like a drum along the way with each New England cover, but got a temporary halt-fire last week during the Patriots bye -- books still lost as bettors went against the 49ers and Browns.

              The effect of the Patriots popularity with bettors has been inflated numbers as sort of a luxury tax, but they still cover whatever the oddsmakers throw out there. And because of that success, their past two games have seen tickets written at a 9-to-1 ratio over their opponents. Because of the quality opponent this week, the tickets written disparity should be lessened. However, the Patriots party wagon at the bet windows still figures to be prominent. Why jump off now when they keep cashing?

              LINE MOVEMENT

              CG Technology's seven sports books opened the Patriots -6.5 on Sunday night and within four minutes money had pushed it to -7 where it stayed until Tuesday when they moved to -7.5. The total has gone from an opener of 48.5 to 49.

              If we go back to April when CG opened spreads on every game for the season the Patriots were only -2, which is a huge indication of how perception and ratings have changed since the season started.

              ROBERTS RATING


              I've upgraded New England 1.5-points since Week 5, which is a significant move, but also doesn't account for an added popularity tax. Over the same time, I've dropped Seattle 1.5-points which is also substantial for a team considered elite. Let's give New England 3-points for home field and then add in the Patriots differential of 2.5-points and I'm set with a number of -5.5. If I was booking it for the house, taking actual cash on the number after losing every week with New England, I'd start at -7 like most books did.

              IT'S GO TIME FOR SEATTLE


              This is the ninth game of the season for Seattle, which means we're in the second-half, which means Seattle gets into playoff mode. In the past four seasons, they've gone a combined 26-6 straight-up in the second-half.

              SEATTLE DEFENSE

              DB Kam Chancellor is a huge part of Seattle's defense, but he's missed the past four games with a groin injury and is questionable this week. Through eight games, the defense is ranked No. 9 allowing 332 ypg (2015: No. 2 with 291 ypg allowed), but the pass rush has been strong with 27 sacks, which ranks third. The real area of concern, though, is they're not forcing turnovers -- just eight on the season.

              TOM BRADY'S REVENGE

              At 39 and in his 17th season, Brady looks better than ever averaging 329 yards and three TDs passing in four games since returning to the lineup. He's yet to throw an interception or fumble. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has a over-under prop listed with him at 278.5 yards and two TDs.

              RUSSELL WILSON LIGHT

              Between nagging knee and ankle injuries, Russell Wilson has taken away a big part of what made him Danger-Russ by not taking off as often for positive yardage. Through eight games, he's rushed only 28 times for 54 yards (1.9 avg.) and one TD. In the past three seasons he's ended up with at least 539 yards rushing. After throwing a career high 36 TDs last season, he has only seven this year. However, after three games of not throwing any TD's, he threw two and ran for one against Buffalo on Monday night.

              BETTING TRENDS

              --Seattle is 3-8-1 ATS in past 12 against winning teams.
              --Seattle is 6-2-1 ATS in past nine road games against winning home teams.
              --Seattle Over total in seven of past nine gainst winning teams.

              --New England is 21-8-2 ATS in past 31 home games.
              --New England is 4-1 ATS past five years following bye week.
              --New England Over total in four of past five following bye week.

              SNF PROPS (WESTGATE)

              --Total completions by Russell Wilson: 23.5
              --Total TD passes by Russell Wilson: 1.5 UN -150
              --Gross passing yards by Tom Brady: 278.5
              --Total TD passes by Tom Brady: 2 OV -150
              --Total receiving yards by Rob Gronkowski: 75.5

              ODDS TO WIN (WESTGATE)

              Seattle Seahawks
              NFC WEST: 1/4 (favorite)
              NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: 3/1 (co-leader with Dallas)
              SUPER BOWL: 8/1 (second choice tied with Dallas)

              New England Patriots
              AFC EAST: Off board due to commanding lead
              AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: 5/8 (favorite)
              SUPER BOWL: 7/5 (favorite)
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • MNF - Bengals at Giants
                November 12, 2016


                The Week 10 finale in the NFL pits an interconference battle between the Bengals and Giants at Met Life Stadium. Cincinnati is playing its second straight NFC East opponent following its tie in London against Washington, while New York is right in the midst of the Wild Card race following a three-game winning streak.

                LAST WEEK

                The Bengals sat through the bye week in Week 9, but we’ll rewind an extra week back to Week 8. Cincinnati finished in a 27-27 tie against Washington in London as the Bengals failed to reach the .500 mark. The Bengals fell to 3-4-1 SU and 3-5 ATS as Marvin Lewis’ team couldn’t hold onto a 10-point third quarter lead. Kirk Cousins torched Cincinnati’s defense for 458 yards, compared to 284 yards passing from Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton. The Bengals picked up three touchdowns on the ground, including 152 yards rushing, the third straight game Cincinnati has rushed for at least 120 yards.

                The Giants improved to 2-1 inside the NFC East after holding off the Eagles, 28-23 to cash as three-point home favorites. Eli Manning put up only 257 yards passing, but threw four touchdowns for the Giants, including a pair of scoring connections with Odell Beckham, Jr. New York’s ground game has been grounded for much of the season as the Giants accumulated only 54 yards on 24 carries, the fifth straight game they have been limited to 80 yards or fewer.

                PRIMETIME PROBLEMS

                Since 2012, the Bengals have struggled under the lights in the regular season by posting a 5-10 SU and 7-8 ATS record. Cincinnati picked up a victory in its only primetime opportunity this season in Week 4 against Miami, but the Bengals are winless in their last three road contests played on Monday night. Last season, the Bengals split a pair of Monday nighters, including a 10-6 loss to Houston as 10-point home favorites.

                GIANT SCORING

                Since cashing the UNDER in their home opener against the Saints in Week 2, New York has easily eclipsed the OVER in each of its past three contests at Met Life Stadium. The Giants and their opponent have combined for at least 50 points in each of the last three home contests even though the closing totals were 47, 42 ½, and 42 ½. Monday’s total sits at 48 at Sportsbook.ag, as the Giants are 4-1 to the UNDER on totals of 44 ½ and higher.

                LINE MOVEMENT

                The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Giants as two-point home favorites. However, that line has swung in Cincinnati’s favor as the Bengals are listed as one-point chalk at many sports books, including the Westgate. The total opened at 47 and is hovering between 47 and 48 at most outlets.

                SERIES HISTORY

                The Bengals are making their first ever trip to Met Life Stadium as Cincinnati last visited New York and the Meadowlands in 2008 as 13-point underdogs. Cincinnati cashed in a 26-23 overtime loss as the road team has never won in this series. The Bengals defeated the Giants in their last matchup in 2012 as 3 ½-point home underdogs, 31-13. Dalton torched New York for four touchdowns, while the Bengals’ defense intercepted Manning twice.

                HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

                VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says that even though the Giants are in the playoff race, there are some negative numbers against them. “The Giants own a negative scoring differential on the season as all five wins have come by seven or fewer points, but New York is currently in a great position as if they can win Monday night the next two games are against the Bears and Browns and 8-3 is a very realistic possibility ahead of a difficult five-game stretch to close the season in December,” Nelson notes.

                Since nobody is pulling away in the AFC North, Nelson comments that the Bengals can still finish atop their division if they take care of business, “The Bengals still have four division games remaining including both meetings with the Ravens ahead and no team left on Cincinnati’s schedule has a record better than 5-3 as a great second half run is possible for the 2015 division champions. Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with disappointing numbers, but the three road losses came at Pittsburgh, Dallas, and New England for a formidable slate.”

                PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

                Cincinnati

                A. Dalton – Total Touchdown Passes
                1 ½ - OVER (+110)
                1 ½ - UNDER (-130)

                A.J. Green – Total Receiving Yards
                87 ½ - OVER (-110)
                87 ½ - UNDER (-110)

                New York

                E. Manning - Total Completions
                23 ½ - OVER (-110)
                23 ½ - UNDER (-110)

                E. Manning – Total Touchdown Passes
                1 ½ - OVER (-130)
                1 ½ - UNDER (+110)

                O. Beckham, Jr. – Total Receiving Yards
                85 ½ - OVER (-110)
                85 ½ - UNDER (-110)
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • Falcons missing 3 starters for Sunday's game at Eagles
                  November 11, 2016


                  FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) The first-place Atlanta Falcons have ruled out three starters for their game Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.

                  Running back Tevin Coleman will miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury, while tight end Jacob Tamme is sitting out his second game in a row with a shoulder problem.

                  Cornerback Desmond Trufant left the last game, a Thursday night victory over Tampa Bay, with a shoulder injury. Even with extra time to recover, he wasn't able to make it back.

                  The Falcons are off next week, which likely factored into the decision not to rush anyone back.

                  Defensive end Dwight Freeney (quadriceps) will be able to play after fully participating in Friday's practice.

                  The Falcons (6-3) lead the NFC South heading into the contest against the Eagles (4-4).
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10

                    Things are positively rosy in Atlanta, where the Falcons' offense continues to steamroll opponents.

                    Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, 42.5)

                    Houston's red-zone follies vs. Jaguars' clutch defense

                    The Texans are the toast of a mediocre AFC South division, entering Week 10 action at 5-3 - but with a 5-0 record at home and an 0-3 mark away from Houston, they'll need to figure things out on the road if they hope to fend off Indianapolis and Tennessee. And that won't happen if the Texans continue to struggle in the red zone, as they have for most of the season. Correcting that might prove tricky this week as Houston visits a Jacksonville defense that has been particularly stingy inside the 20.

                    With Lamar Miller struggling to be the No. 1 back Houston needs, and quarterback Brock Osweiler showing major growing pains in his first year as a starter, the Texans have turned red-zone visits into touchdowns on a league-worst 38.1 percent of their drives so far this season. That rate dips to an abysmal 33.3 percent in three road games, and is miles below the 56.5-percent red zone success rate the Texans posted en route to last year's division crown.

                    The Jaguars' defense has been maligned as a disappointment following preseason vows that it would be a vastly improved unit - but it has flexed its muscles in the red zone, limiting opponents to a 48.4-percent touchdown rate. Only four teams have been more effective at limiting red-zone touchdowns, and the Jaguars pitched a shutout last time out, holding Kansas City without a red-zone touchdown despite dropping a 19-14 decision. Don't trust the Houston offense this week.

                    Daily fantasy fade: RB Lamar Miller


                    Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (PK, 50)


                    Falcons' outstanding O-line vs. Eagles' right-side D-line deficiencies

                    Things are positively rosy in Atlanta, where the Falcons' offense continues to steamroll opponents on the strength of the best season of quarterback Matt Ryan's career. But he isn't the only reason why Atlanta is the runaway NFL leader in scoring; the Falcons' offensive line has been one of the team's biggest bright spots, and is in line for more success this weekend against a Philadelphia defensive line that hasn't been nearly as good as advertised.

                    Anyone who follows the Falcons with regularity knows that center Alex Mack is the engine of the offensive line, evidenced by his ProFootballFocus grade of 86.2 - the third-best mark at his position. RT Ryan Schraeder (82.6), LG Andy Levitre (82.1) and LT Jake Matthews (74.4) have also excelled, giving Ryan clean pockets all season long while opening up big holes for the running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

                    They'll match up Sunday afternoon against the host Eagles, who have stars of their own on the defensive end but might struggle to contain the Atlanta rush attack, particularly on the right side. DRE Connor Barwin (49.2) is ranked 77th at the position according to PFF, while DRT Beau Allen (41.3) is 108th. A mismatch that significant is sure to make a difference come Sunday, so look for the Falcons to exploit it all afternoon long.

                    Daily fantasy watch: RB Devonta Freeman


                    Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)


                    Chiefs' extra possessions vs. Panthers' turnover troubles

                    Opponents beware: The Chiefs' already impressive defense is starting to gain momentum heading into the second half of the season. And that doesn't even include the pivotal return of LB Justin Houston, who was activated off the PUP list on Wednesday and could be in the lineup this weekend. His presence can only bolster a Kansas City defensive unit that has forced a whole lot of turnovers lately - and is primed to keep that run going against clumsy Carolina.

                    The Chiefs have fashioned a plus-8 turnover differential over their previous three games - far and away the best total in the league over that span, and a major reason why Kansas City enters Week 10 on a four-game winning streak. It leads the NFL in overall turnover differential per game (plus-1.6), and is no stranger to the rarefied air; the Chiefs led the league with a 0.9 per-game turnover differential in 2015 en route to an impressive 11-5 showing.

                    The Panthers aren't as bad as they were earlier this season, but they still have to overcome a barrage of turnovers that has them at minus-0.8 per game on the season, the fifth-worst rate in the league entering Week 10. That average inexplicably balloons to minus-1.8 per game at home, tied for the worst in the league. Cam Newton might find himself running for his life Sunday - and if that happens, the Chiefs are a good bet to rack up more turnovers.

                    Daily fantasy fade: QB Cam Newton


                    Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5, 49.5)


                    Seahawks' third-down struggles vs. Patriots' drive extension skills

                    The Seattle defense has been mostly good this season, but it would look even better if it could find a way to limit opponents' third-down conversions. Teams have extended drives against the Seahawks at an alarming rate - and that bodes poorly for the visitors this weekend as they take on the powerhouse Patriots, who look to extend their winning streak to five games. New England does many thing well - and converting third downs is one of them.

                    Seattle pulled out a 31-25 win over the plucky Buffalo Bills last weekend, but the game probably shouldn't have been so close. The Bills were a stunning 12-for-17 on third downs, its best showing of the season. The Seahawks have allowed teams to turn third downs into first downs on 58.5 percent of their opportunities over the last three weeks, and at a 42.9-percent rate for the season; only six teams - including minnows San Francisco and Cleveland - have been worse.

                    That generosity could be the Seahawks' undoing this weekend, particularly against a New England team that has been nearly unbeatable at home with Tom Brady under center. The Patriots have converted 57.1 percent of their third downs over the previous three games to improve to 47.2 percent for the season - the fourth-best mark in football. If Seattle gives Brady that much more time, this game could be over by halftime.

                    Daily fantasy watch: TE Rob Gronkowski
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • NFL Underdogs: Week 10 pointspread picks and predictions

                      The Dallas Cowboys have become the NFL's best bet at 7-1 SU and ATS. How can you pass on the points when the 'Boys take on the Steelers in Week 10?

                      So the shock is wearing off. The results from this past Tuesday are real and the world is still (currently) rotating.

                      Donald Trump is President Elect of the United States and since this is an underdog column, it must be noted that Trump pulled off one of the bigger upsets in recent memory when he defeated Hillary Clinton.

                      Even as polls were closing on Election Night, Trump was as much as a 7/1 underdog, compared to Clinton’s -1,500. But that didn’t matter, as the numbers poured in and the reality that the former reality TV star would be the next President set in.

                      Now we get to see what “Make America Great Again” is really all about.

                      Luckily for us, America is already pretty great and we have to look no further than some of the Week 10 NFL matchups as an example.

                      This week features the classic matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, and is made even better now that both teams are relevant again. However, unlike the election, it feels like the wrong side is favored heading into this All-American showdown.

                      The Cowboys are heading into Pittsburgh as 2.5-point road pups, which seems like a reasonable line on the surface. But if you dig into the numbers, that spread looks better and better for our purposes.

                      First of all, let’s state the obvious. The Cowboys have passed every test since Week 1, going 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven games to not only sit atop the NFC standings, but also become the NFL’s best bet.

                      The Cowboys are, of course, led by their dynamic duo of rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, and match up very well with the Steelers, even on the road.

                      Elliot and the Cowboys' fantastic offensive line (maybe the best position group in the whole NFL), lead the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, but it could be Dak who's the key this week. Prescott is completing 66 percent of his passes for 2,020 yards 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

                      Meanwhile, the Steelers secondary ranks 24th in passing yards against per game, so look for Dallas to try to keep Pittsburgh’s defense off balance with the run game and then attack down field with playaction and roll outs.

                      Additionally, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look anywhere near 100 percent in his return to the Steelers lineup, completing just 23 of 45 passes for 264 yards in last week’s loss to Baltimore.

                      My gut reaction is to just let the streak ride (which I’m sure my boss and diehard Cowboys fan loves to hear), even without looking further into this game. But when you do, Cowboys fans should be cautiously optimistic their red-hot run can continue.

                      Pick: Cowboys +2.5


                      Houston Texans (+2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars


                      When the line opened at pick'em for this AFC South matchup, I hoped the Texans would eventually be faded down to betting underdogs. I just didn’t think the move would be this drastic.

                      Obviously, the Texans have struggled on the road this season, going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home, but a matchup with the Jaguars could be all Houston needs to change that. Also, it should be noted, Jacksonville is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS at home on the year.

                      Houston’s third-ranked defense should pose problems for a struggling Jags offense, that has committed eight turnovers during the team's current three-game losing streak. More specifically, Houston ranks second in passing defense and will look to put pressure on Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles, who is completing just 59.2 percent of his passes and has 10 interceptions this season.

                      As inconsistent as Houston’s offense has been (*cough* Brock Osweiler) I can see the Texans putting a stranglehold on the division.

                      Pick: Houston +2.5


                      Seattle Seahawks (+7.5) at New England Patriots

                      This may seem like I’m jumping on the Seahawks bandwagon a little early, but the way Seattle’s offense looked last week has to be encouraging.

                      Russell Wilson is finally healthy, Jimmy Graham played like the beast he was in New Orleans (plus with no Jamie Collins in New England, who will cover him?), and the defense is as tough as ever.

                      I know the Patriots are rolling, going 4-0 SU and ATS since the return of the Golden Boy (and potential Trump endorser?) Tom Brady, but this seems like too many points.

                      Pick: Seahawks +7.5

                      Last Week: 1-1-1 ATS
                      Season: 15-11-1 ATS
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • Essential Week 10 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

                        Can Big Ben, Antonio Brown and the Steelers halt the Cowboys' win streak? Pittsburgh is currently 2.5-pt chalk.

                        Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42)

                        * Houston has failed to record 300 total yards of offense in three of its last four games and four of its last six. The ground game has been effective enough with Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue sharing the load, but Brock Osweiler has been inconsistent and has hurt the Texans with nine interceptions. The defense is outstanding against the pass but has had a tough time stopping the run and has recorded just six takeaways – second-fewest in the league.

                        * Jacksonville is coming off its best offensive output of the year thanks to a season-high 205 rushing yards against the Chiefs. Chris Ivory led the resurgent ground game and could continue to see a greater share of the work than T.J. Yeldon, while quarterback Blake Bortles racked up 54 rushing yards last week but remains inconsistent in the passing game. The Jaguars also turned in their best defensive effort of the year against Kansas City and boast a top-five pass defense, but they haven’t forced a turnover since Week 4 against Indianapolis.

                        LINE HISTORY: This AFC South battle opened as a pick, early action was on the visiting Texas up as high as 1.5-points, since the line has flipped to -2.5 Saturday morning. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 42. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC South.
                        Texans are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
                        Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
                        Over is 5-1 in Texans last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                        Over is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
                        Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Jacksonville.


                        Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-3, 49)

                        * While Denver is yielding a league-low 183.3 passing yards per contest, its own aerial attack is not faring well, as Trevor Siemian is completing only 59.8 percent of his attempts and has thrown for just 10 touchdowns, tying him for 16th in the league, with five interceptions. He has performed well on the road, however, recording eight TDs while being picked off only once in four contests. Devontae Booker has rushed for a touchdown in two of his last three games and ranks third among NFL rookies with 320 yards on the ground.

                        * Brees continues to etch his name in the record book after recording his 55th career game with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdowns - the most in history - and became the first player to register 30 performances of 300 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. The 37-year-old is one scoring pass away from joining Peyton Manning (539) and Brett Favre (508) as the only quarterbacks to throw for 450 in their careers. Mark Ingram is coming off a 158-yard rushing effort that included a career-best 75-yard touchdown run, which also was the second-longest in franchise history.

                        LINE HISTORY:
                        New Orleans opened as 1.5-point home favorites and the line has been bet up to 3. The total opened at 48 and has risen one full point to 49.
                        Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS


                        Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
                        Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
                        Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
                        Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games in Week 10.
                        Over is 8-1-1 in Saints last 10 home games.


                        Los Angeles Rams at N.Y. Jets (-1, 40)

                        * Keenum has two touchdowns against five interceptions in his last two games and coach Jeff Fisher said it was time to give running back Todd Gurley more touches. What has he been waiting for? Gurley, who has carried the ball just five times combined in the fourth quarter of his last three games, emerged as one of the game's rising stars last season by rushing for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on the way to Rookie of the Year honors, but he may find things rough facing New York's fifth-ranked rushing defense. Led by Aaron Donald, who sacked Cam Newton twice last week, the Rams are allowing 20.9 points a game and got back the services of top cornerback Trumaine Johnson last week, who is sure to shadow Jets wideout Brandon Marshall

                        * Bowles benched star defenders Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson for the first quarter of last week's loss at Miami due to team violations and continued the upheaval this week, waiving defensive lineman Jarvis Jenkins and placing left tackle Ryan Clady (shoulder) on injured reserve on Wednesday. The turmoil seems to be a sign that Bowles' days may be numbered. “I haven’t done a good job,” he said. “We’re 3-6. It speaks for itself. I’ve got to do a lot better job coaching.” After a brutal schedule left them 1-5 to start the season, the Jets responded with a two-game winning streak, but their three wins have come against teams with a combined eight wins and last week's disappointing 27-23 loss to the Dolphins appears to be the end of their playoff hopes.

                        LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Jets as 2.5-point home favorites and has been getting bet down all week to 1. The total opened 41 and was quickly dropped to 40, where it has remained all week. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
                        Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                        Under is 8-1 in Rams last 9 games following a straight up loss.
                        Over is 3-0-1 in Jets last 4 home games.
                        Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.


                        Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (1, 50)

                        * Ryan's success routinely hinges on the electric Julio Jones (NFL-best 970 yards), and the stud wide receiver hasn't been shy about giving Philadelphia fits in his career - highlighted by a nine-catch, 141-yard, two-touchdown performance in last season's opener. The 27-year-old Jones also found the end zone versus the Buccaneers on a 3-yard fade and faces an Eagles' secondary that yielded four touchdowns to the Giants' wideouts. While Jones has excelled, running back Devonta Freeman was limited to just 112 yards rushing during the two-game absence of Tevin Coleman (hamstring), who expects to be back on Sunday.

                        * Although Ryan Mathews has scored in back-to-back contests, fellow running back Darren Sproles has assumed the lead role in the backfield. "By stats and by what you're seeing, I would say that Darren is the No. 1 back right now," coach Doug Pederson said of the 5-foot-6 Sproles. "Obviously we haven't hung our hat on one guy, but we tend to lean more toward Darren Sproles. It's hard to take him off the field right now." The 33-year-old Sproles, who is averaging nearly five yards a carry and 10 yards per catch in eight games, rolled up 126 scrimmage yards (76 receiving, 50 rushing) in the last encounter with Atlanta.

                        LINE HISTORY:
                        The line opened with Eagles a 1-point home favorite and bettors jumped all over the road team bumping that line as high as Falcons +2, before it settled at 1. The total opened at 49.5 and rose as high as 50.5 before settling at 50. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
                        Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
                        Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
                        Over is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 vs. NFC.
                        Over is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 vs. NFC.


                        Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)

                        * Kansas City’s offense doesn’t put up flashy numbers, but Smith takes care of the ball and Ware has been a workhorse when healthy. Getting Houston back in the mix would add another pass-rushing element to a stout defense that already includes linebacker Dee Ford, who is tied for third in the league with nine sacks – eight of which have come in the last five games. The Chiefs’ biggest weakness is stopping the run, which could be an issue against a strong Carolina ground attack.

                        * Carolina’s offense sputtered to a season-low 244 total yards against the Rams, but the Panthers did not commit a turnover for the first time this season. The running game hasn’t been as effective as last season, but quarterback Cam Newton and running back Jonathan Stewart still form a formidable duo for any defense to stop. The Panthers have stifled the run but struggled against the pass despite leading the NFC with 24 sacks.

                        LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point home favorites and the total at 44. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither has moved as of Saturday. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                        Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
                        Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
                        Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
                        Over is 11-2 in Panthers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
                        Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


                        Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.5, 45.5)

                        * The best news from Chicago coming out of the bye week was on the injury report, where nose tackle Eddie Goldman (ankle), guards Kyle Long (triceps) and Josh Sitton (ankle) and wide receiver Eddie Royal (toe) all were listed as limited but participated in practice. The returns of Long and Sitton should help an offensive line that dominated the Vikings and gave Jordan Howard enough room to run for 153 yards. Royal's return would open the outside for Cutler, who spent more time cutting up the middle of the field with tight end Zach Miller and running backs Howard and Jeremy Langford in his return than he did throwing wide to Alshon Jeffery (four catches, 63 yards).

                        * Tampa Bay is allowing an average of 29 points - 29th in the NFL - and 398.9 yards (28th), and was carved up for 344 yards and four TDs by Matt Ryan in a 43-28 home loss to Atlanta last week. Winston threw three scoring passes without an interception in the setback and finished the game on the bench after suffering a knee injury but insists he is physically ready to go this week. Winston could get some help in the running game this week from Doug Martin (hamstring), who returned to practice for the first time since Week 2 and is questionable.

                        LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 1-point road favorites coming off the bye week and has been rising to 2.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
                        Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
                        Over is 10-2 in Bears last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                        Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 home games.
                        Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


                        Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (3, 49.5)

                        * Green Bay has been forced to use wide receiver Ty Montgomery in the backfield since Eddie Lacy suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6, but running back James Starks practiced on a limited basis Thursday and could rejoin the lineup for the first time since Week 5. The Packers also could get another weapon back on offense as tight end Jared Cook, sidelined since Week 3, also practiced Thursday. Wideout Jordy Nelson admitted his surgically repaired knee is not 100 percent, but he has seven touchdowns on the season. Linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) missed practice Thursday and could sit out his third straight game.

                        * Tennessee features the league's second-leading rusher in DeMarco Murray, who has an AFC-best 807 yards but was limited in practice Thursday. With backup Derrick Henry unable to practice due to a calf injury, the Titans need Murray as they pit their third-ranked running attack against a Green Bay defense that is allowing a league-low 75.8 yards on the ground. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, accounted for four touchdowns and threw for a season-high 313 yards at San Diego, has connected on five scoring passes to Rishard Matthews in the last five games. Tennessee is the only team in the league that has yet to force a fumble.

                        LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 2.5-point road favorites and they have been bet up slightly to the current number of 3. The total opened as 48.5 and has been bet up to 49.5 as of Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                        Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a straight up loss.
                        Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                        Over is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games overall.
                        Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.


                        Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-2.5, 42)

                        * Quarterback Sam Bradford has nine touchdowns against only one interception, but he has been limited to one scoring pass in five of his seven starts and doesn't have the luxury of leaning on the running game without Adrian Peterson. Bradford went to the air 40 times in last week's 22-16 overtime loss against visiting Detroit while Minnesota managed 78 yards rushing on 25 attempts. Stefon Diggs had a season-high 13 catches last week while Cordarrelle Patterson is averaging five receptions over the last five games. Nose tackle Linval Joseph and cornerbacks Captain Munnerlyn and Marcus Sherels did not practice Wednesday or Thursday.

                        * Cousins threw for two scores and a season-high 458 yards in the draw with Cincinnati, but he will face the league's top-ranked scoring defense without his Pro Bowl left tackle. Trent Williams will serve the first of his four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Rookie Robert Kelley rushed for 87 yards against the Bengals in his first career start and will get the nod against Minnesota's rugged defense. Deep threat DeSean Jackson missed practice against Thursday, but tight end Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder each had nine receptions and a touchdown in London.

                        LINE HISTORY: The Redskins opened the week as 2.5-point home favorites and were bet up slightly to 3 midweek, before the number faded back to 2.5 Saturday morning. The total opened at 42.5 and dropped a half point to the current number of 42. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Vikings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
                        Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
                        Under is 13-3 in Vikings last 16 games following a ATS loss.
                        Under is 5-0 in Redskins last 5 games following a bye week.
                        Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


                        Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-4.5, 48)


                        * With Ajayi's workload at an all-time high, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is averaging 201.7 yards per contest during Miami's three-game winning streak -- with just 149 coming against the Jets. "Whatever it takes," Tannehill said. "Obviously, (149 yards) was plenty last week. If we need 300 this week, then that's what we need. It's just a matter of game by game (doing) whatever it takes to move the chains and put points on the board." Jarvis Landry, who has a team-leading 49 receptions, sat out Thursday's practice with a shoulder injury and Kenny Stills did the same with an ailing calf, but both wideouts are expected to play on Sunday.

                        * Buoyed by Gordon's presence in the backfield, Philip Rivers continued his strong season by throwing for two touchdowns and a 117.6 rating last week. The veteran Rivers had an easy time of it in his last meeting with Miami, amassing 311 passing yards and three scores in a 30-14 victory on Dec. 20. Trusted target Antonio Gates has reeled in a touchdown pass in consecutive outings, increasing his total to a team-high four and career tally to 108. Tyrell Williams also had a touchdown reception last week and leads the club with 595 yards receiving.

                        LINE HISTORY:
                        The Chargers opened as 3.5-home favorites and have been bet up a full point to 4.5. The total opened up at 47.5 and was quickly bet up to 48.5 before fading late in the week to the current number 48. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
                        Under is 13-3 in Dolphins last 16 games in Week 10.
                        Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 games on grass.
                        Under is 12-0 in the last 12 meetings.
                        Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


                        San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-14, 48)


                        * Kaepernick showed signs of his former self last week, passing for 398 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort. He also ran for 23 yards, raising his career total of 2,005 to join Steve Young as the only quarterbacks in franchise history to reach the 2,000-yard plateau. Vance McDonald has registered two touchdowns of at least 65 yards this year, making him the fourth NFL tight end since 1970 and first since Shannon Sharpe in 1997 to do so in the one season.

                        * The injury bug continues to bite Arizona as it lost tackle Jared Veldheer to a torn biceps tendon and safety Tyrann Mathieu to a shoulder subluxation in its loss to Carolina in Week 8. The Cardinals, who hope to have Mathieu back in a week or two, also have 10 players on season-ending injured reserve. Johnson leads the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns and ranks first in the entire league with 1,112 yards from scrimmage, including a franchise-record streak of eight straight games with at least 100.

                        LINE HISTORY: The Cards opened as massive 13-point home favorites and has been steadily rising to 14. The total opened at 49 and dropped to 48 that day and has remained at that number all week. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Over is 15-3 in 49ers last 18 games following a bye week.
                        Over is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                        Under is 10-1 in Cardinals last 11 home games.
                        Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games in Week 10.
                        Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


                        Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 49.5)

                        * Slot receiver Cole Beasley leads the team in catches (43) and receiving yards (499) and touchdowns, with his club-best fourth score in the last four games coming on Sunday. Fellow wideout Dez Bryant has caught 16 of 41 passes thrown his way, with only one for 19 yards against the battered Browns' secondary last week. "We're chasing something. It's not a one-man show,” Bryant said of Dallas' winning ways. Veteran tight end Jason Witten was the target of choice last week for Prescott, reeling in eight receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown.

                        * Pittsburgh's potent offense was asleep through three quarters last week as it mustered just 69 yards before Roethlisberger woke up and tossed a touchdown pass to Antonio Brown and rushed for another. While electric Le'Veon Bell is a trusted option out of the backfield, Pittsburgh has struggled to find a consistency in the passing game - outside of Brown - with Martavis Bryant suspended for the season. Sammie Coates has followed a strong start with just four yards in his last three games and fellow wideouts Markus Wheaton (shoulder) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot) are nursing injuries. Eli Rogers recorded a team-leading 103 receiving yards - all in the fourth quarter - to show promise after his development had been slowed by both turf toe and a reported disciplinary decision in Week 7 (he was inactive).

                        LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 51 and has been bet down a point and a half to the current number of 49.5. Check out the complete line history here.

                        TRENDS

                        Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
                        Under is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 road games.
                        Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
                        Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games in Week 10.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13

                          GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

                          GB at TEN 01:00 PM

                          GB -3.0 *****

                          O 48.5 *****


                          DEN at NO 01:00 PM

                          NO -3.0

                          U 49.5


                          ATL at PHI 01:00 PM

                          ATL +1.0 ( NFC GOM )

                          MIN at WAS 01:00 PM

                          WAS -2.5

                          LA at NYJ 01:00 PM

                          NYJ +1.0

                          O 39.0


                          HOU at JAC 01:00 PM

                          JAC -2.5

                          U 42.0


                          CHI at TB 01:00 PM

                          CHI -3.0 ( NFC NORTH GOM )

                          KC at CAR 01:00 PM

                          CAR -3.0 ( NFC INTERCONFERENCE GAME OF THE DAY )

                          O 44.0

                          MIA at SD 04:05 PM

                          MIA +4.5

                          O 49.0 *****

                          DAL at PIT 04:25 PM

                          DAL +3.0 *****

                          O 50.0

                          SF at ARI 04:25 PM

                          ARI -13.5 ( NFC WEST BLOW OUT )

                          U 47.0

                          SEA at NE 08:30 PM

                          NE -7.5 ( SUNDAY NIGHT GOY )

                          O 49.5 ( SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR )
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • Texans 24, Jaguars 21— Jax is one of three teams (Cards, Giants) not to score on their first drive of a game: their offense has been outscored 7-0 by opponents’ defense on first drive of their nine games. Texans are now 1-3 on road, after losing first three road games by combined score of 84-22. Jaguars have zero takeaways in their last five games (-12).

                            Chiefs 20, Panthers 17— In their last two games, both wins, KC has one offensive TD, eight FGs, six 3/outs. Carolina led this game 17-6 in 4th quarter, but Newton threw a pick-6, then Panthers fumbled it away again in last minute when game was tied.

                            Carolina started second half with a 20-play drive that took 10:08 off the clock, but they wound up punting on the drive- they didn’t score in the second half.

                            Denver 25, Saints 23— One of weirdest endings in NFL history; Saints tied game on a 32-yard TD with 1:22 left, but Broncos blocked PAT, ran it back for the game-winning two points. New Orleans averaged 9.8 yds/pass attempt but turned ball over 4 times (-2) which is most always fatal. Broncos converted 11 of 19 third down plays, had 9-yard edge in field position.

                            Rams 9, Jets 6— On Hard Knocks this summer, rookie WR Cooper was having issues catching punts, so coach Jeff Fisher stepped in and gave him some tips— Fisher ran punts back when he played. With this game tied 6-6 in 4th and Cooper returning punts for banged-up Austin (leg), Cooper made an excellent catch on a short punt that gave Rams good field position on their own 48. If he lets it bounce, Rams could’ve lost 15-20 yards of field position. From there, LA drove for the game-winning FG. Good coaching helps.

                            That said, on their last 32 drives, Rams have scored one touchdown, tried six FGs; how much worse could rookie QB Goff really be? LA has four wins; they didn’t score a TD in two of them. The defense could use some help.

                            Eagles 24, Falcons 15— Philly is 4-0 at home, allowing 38 points, giving up three offensive TDs on 42 drives. Atlanta had scored 106 points in its last three games; holding them to 15 is really impressive. Falcons were 2-11 on 3rd down in this game, ran ball only 13 times for 48 yards.

                            Redskins 26, Vikings 20— Atlanta started 5-0 last season and missed playoffs; is Minnesota headed in same direction? Vikings have lost four games in a row, their OC quit- they missed PAT after their third TD and then got shut out in second half. Vikings have only two takeaways in last three games. Over is 5-0 in Washington home games.

                            Titans 47, Packers 25— Tennessee tried onside kick to start game, which didn’t work; still, they are first team since 1986 (Giants) to lead Green Bay by 21 points in first quarter. On their first three drives, Tennessee’s offense ran 17 plays for 236 yards and three TDs- their TE’s ran amok, with over 100 receiving yards and two TDs in first half alone.

                            Bucs 36, Bears 10— This seems like a good time to point out that NFL’s TV ratings have gone down in every Presidential election year, not just this year, and by as much as 10% in 2000, so things should get back to normal from here on in, at least as far as TV ratings go.

                            This is an awful loss for the Bears, who didn’t get a first down in the second half- they ran 12 plays for -13 yards in the whole second half. No bueno.

                            CFL playoffs— Edmonton 24, Hamilton 21 and BC Lions 32, Winnipeg 31.

                            Dolphins 31, Chargers 24— On his last five drives, Philip Rivers threw four INTs and a TD pass; the 3rd INT was run back for the game-winning Miami TD by Kiko Alonso. San Diego held Ajayi to 79 rushing yards, Over is now 8-2 in Charger games this year; those of us who have NFL Sunday Ticket will miss them next week, their bye week. Miami has won four games in a row.

                            Cardinals 23, 49ers 20– Kaepernick played well in leading 49ers back to tie game with 1:55 left, but Palmer drove Arizona 69 yards for the winning FG at the gun. Penalty yardage in this game: SF 100, Arizona 10. Cardinals turned ball over four times (-3) but won, which rarely happens.

                            Cowboys 35, Steelers 30— Pittsburgh went for two points four times and went 0-4. What is the reason for doing it after your first two TDs of the game? Dallas has won eight in row for first time since 1977; there were seven lead changes in this game. Pittsburgh/Green Bay both have Hall of Fame QBs and are both 4-5; go figure.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • Just one hell of day.....I might have to give it a rest for the time being.......

                              NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

                              10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
                              11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
                              11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
                              11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
                              11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
                              11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100

                              WLT PCT UNITS
                              ATS Picks 81-104-6 43.78% -16700

                              O/U Picks 81-103-5 44.02% -16150

                              Triple Plays:..... 27 - 39 - 2

                              NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
                              NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
                              TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
                              NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
                              INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
                              NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
                              NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
                              NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
                              SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
                              SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 ,,,,,,( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                              Comment


                              • Books win big in Week 10
                                November 14, 2016


                                The excitement level from Week 10 is going to be hard for the NFL to top this season. It had just about everything you can think of when dreaming up the wildest, most improbable fantastic finishes. There was enough to last an entire season crammed into one Sunday. However, bettors might disagree about the excitement factor just because Week 10 saw their increased bankroll from the past three weeks dwindle.

                                "It's probably our best day of the season and could get better if the Seahawks cover," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback, just before kickoff of the titanic Sunday night game clash between Super Bowl 49 participants.

                                "Just look at that over there," he said motioning towards the Mirage sports book counter where lines usually form following the late afternoon results. "That kind of tells you how the day went. Not many are cashing after those late games."

                                Favorites would go 3-9 against-the-spread on the day with eight underdogs winning outright. The only team the public piled on that cashed was the Cowboys in their thrilling 35-30 win at Pittsburgh as three-point underdogs that featured eight lead changes. It was the eighth straight cover for the Cowboys and the first time they've won eight straight since 1977, which ended with a win over Denver in the Super Bowl. How about those Cowboys! They have the best record in the NFL using a back-up rookie quarterback.

                                "The room was jam packed with the crowd mostly rooting for Dallas," said Stoneback, "and they all erupted when (Ezekiel) Elliott ran in for the last second TD. You would have thought we would have lost with so much support, and we did have a 3-to-1 ratio on tickets written on them, but we had more money on the Steelers. We took a nice six-figure wager on the Steelers -2 on Tuesday."

                                The problem for bettors siding with Dallas is that they didn't have many other selections go their way to complete a winning parlay. The season long reliable trend of betting against the 49ers didn't work out so well Sunday as they took the Cardinals, who were favored by 14-points, to the final seconds until Arizona got a field goal to win 23-20. The 49ers had failed to cover seven straight games prior to Sunday.

                                "The 49ers covering was probably our best decision of the afternoon," said Stoneback.

                                One of the many fantastic finishes that was big for the sports books saw the Dolphins win 31-24 at San Diego (-4) with Kiko Alonso intercepting a Philip Rivers pass and returning it 60 yards for the game-winning touchdown with just 1:01 remaining. Rivers would throw his fourth interception of the game a few moments later to ice the game for Miami. William Hill sports books had 77 percent of all ticket written on the game siding with the Chargers.

                                Perhaps the most improbable finish of the day was in New Orleans where the Saints (-3) had scored what appeared to be the winning TD with 1:28 left. All that was left to do to take the lead was kick the extra-point. However, Denver would not only block the kick, but they'd pick up the ball and return for two points of their own to take a 25-23 lead and win the game. Action was split on this one, but the 'over' (50.5) was a popular choice.

                                The Panthers (-3) blew a 17-3 lead heading into the fourth-quarter where a lifeless Kansas City squad would reel off 17 unanswered points to win 20-17. It was all aided by an Eric Berry 42-yard Interception return for a TD. William Hill books had 60 percent of the cash on this game taking the Panthers, who appeared to be getting back to their 2015 ways, but are 3-6, and still in last place of the NFC South.

                                One of the few blowouts on the day happened against a team the majority supported. The Packers were -3 at Tennessee, but the Titans jumped all over the Packers swiss cheese defense to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and an eventual 47-25 win.

                                Even sharp money hard a hard time cashing as they sided with Jacksonville (-3) and Chicago (-3) all week to move the spread drastically. The Texans would win 24-21 at Jacksonville while the Bears would lose 36-10 at Tampa Bay.

                                It would seem fitting that the finale on the day would come down to a last second goal line stand between the top two rated teams in the league. William books saw 78 percent of the tickets written on the Patriots (-8) over the visiting Seahawks just because New England had gone 7-1 ATS this season and Tom Brady was 4-0 ATS since his return from suspension. But Brady wouldn't throw a TD pass in the Seahawks dramatic 31-24 win with Russell Wilson having his best game of the season -- 348 yards passing and three TDs.

                                "I wouldn't call it (Week 10) our biggest win of season, but it's right up there," South Point sports book director Chris Andrews would say following the Seahawks win.

                                Let's just call it the most exciting day of the season and go back to the drawing board for Week 11.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                                Comment

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