The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 7

The Jets have forced just three turnovers in six games while coughing up the ball an unfathomable 15 times - good for a -12 differential that is easily the worst in the league.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+3, 44)

Bills' red-zone D vs. Dolphins' touchdown woes

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the more impressive teams over the last month, rattling off four consecutive victories while entering Week 7 action tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best touchdown differential in the league (+12). But it's the Buffalo defense that has been the real strength of the team, making it a modest favorite entering a divisional showdown with a Miami Dolphins team coming off an impressive win over visiting Pittsburgh.

The Bills have been their stoutest deep in their own territory, allowing foes to convert red-zone visits into touchdowns just 33.3 percent of the time - the best rate in the NFL, and well ahead of the 60-percent rate opponents scored red-zone TDs a season ago. Buffalo has allowed red-zone TDs just 14.3 percent of the time over its last three games, a major reason why the Bills are in the hunt for the AFC East lead despite opening the season with two straight losses.

They shouldn't face much red-zone resistance Sunday against the Dolphins, who rank a distant 26th in turning red-zone visits into touchdowns (47.1 percent); that rate dips to 37.5 percent over the last three. Settling for field goals over touchdowns could ultimately leave the Dolphins short on the scoreboard against a Buffalo defense that has overcome injury and a slow start to become one of the top units in the league.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Jarvis Landry

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-1, 41.5)

Ravens' ball hawks vs. Jets' turnover problems

The Baltimore Ravens' defense is no longer the feared unit it was when linebacker Ray Lewis was patrolling the field. But while the 2015 edition of the Ravens D left fans wanting, this year's incarnation appears to be much better - at least where turnovers are concerned. Baltimore has bruised the opposition into coughing up the ball, and is looking at a sensational matchup in that regard Sunday afternoon against the turnover-prone New York Jets.

The 3-3 Ravens are riding a three-game losing skid into this week's encounter, but they probably deserved a better fate last time out as they dropped a 27-23 decision to the New York Giants despite forcing three turnovers. Baltimore ranks tied for fifth in average takeaways per game (1.8), and they're at +3 in turnover differential for the season - a significant improvement from 2015, when their -14 differential for the season ranked second-last in the league.

The Jets know how that goes; they've forced just three turnovers in six games while coughing up the ball an unfathomable 15 times - good for a -12 turnover differential that is easily the worst in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick's six interceptions in a Sept. 25 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs certainly didn't help, but it's hardly the only major transgression - and now they have Geno Smith as their starting pivot. Look for Baltimore to hound the Jets into multiple turnovers, and to turn those free possessions into points.

Daily fantasy watch: Ravens D/ST

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1, 48.5)

Redskins' pitiful punting vs. Lions' league-leading leg

Both the Washington Redskins and the Detroit Lions should put their passing prowesses on display in what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. But should these offenses struggle and be forced to play the field-position game, the Lions should find themselves with a significant advantage - and that could mean the difference between climbing back above .500 and scrambling to remain in the playoff hunt.

Punter Sam Martin has been a revelation for the Lions so far this season, leading the league in net yards per attempt (47.0) by nearly 1.5 yards over runner-up Thomas Morestead. He has pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line on 10 occasions - just outside the top-10 at his position, despite having fewer punt attempts than everyone ahead of him on the list. Simply put, he has helped the Lions dominate field position even when the offense isn't clicking.

The Redskins haven't been nearly as fortunate, which could be their undoing this weekend. Washington ranks fifth from the bottom in net yards per punt (37.3), with Tress way averaging a mediocre 44.6 gross yards per attempt. At nearly 10 fewer yards per punt attempt than the Lions, the Redskins are clearly better off converting their chances rather than getting into a kicking game with one of the best in the business in Martin.

Daily fantasy watch: Lions D/ST

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 43.5)

Seahawks' stingy pass D vs. Cardinals' limp aerial assault

They may not be able to pull off the "Legion of Boom" monicker of years past, but the Seattle Seahawks still have a defense to be respected. Coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over the visiting Atlanta Hawks, the Seahawks set their sights on Arizona in a divisional showdown with a Cardinals team that cruised past the New York Jets, but is still struggling to find consistency in the passing game - a weakness that could sink them on Sunday.

Despite getting torched by Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan in Week 6, the Seahawks come into this one having allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (209.0) and only four passing touchdowns on the year - three of which came courtesy of Ryan. The opposing quarterback rating of 74.9 is the fourth-lowest in football, and is slightly better than the 79.6 rating opposing QBs posted against the Seahawks in 2015.

The Cardinals have been even stingier against opposing signal callers - allowing a minuscule 65.8 passer rating - but it's the Arizona offense that will be under the microscope this week. Arizona's 77.2 passer rating, compiled by Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, ranks ahead of only four other teams - and it's miles below the 96.5 rating the Cardinals boasted last season. Look for Palmer to have difficulty moving the chains against a Seattle defensive unit that remains one of the most imposing in football.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Larry Fitzgerald

[StarDust Bum]

WLT PCT UNITS

0/17/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 60-76-4 44.12% -11800

O/U Picks 55-82-4 40.15% -17600

Triple Plays:..... 7 - 9 - 1


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at GB 08:25 PM

CHI +7.5 *****

O 45.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

WLT PCT UNITS

0/17/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000

10/20/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 60-77-4 43.80% -12350

O/U Picks 55-83-4 39.86% -18150

Triple Plays:..... 7 - 11 - 1

[StarDust Bum]

WLT PCT UNITS

0/17/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000

10/20/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 60-77-4 43.80% -12350

O/U Picks 55-83-4 39.86% -18150

Triple Plays:..... 7 - 11 - 1


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 23

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYG at LA 09:30 AM

NYG -2.5 *****

U 45.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 7
October 22, 2016

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Ravens are 12-0-1 ATS (Against the Spread) since Jan 22, 2012 on the road after they had a turnover margin of at least +2 last game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-11 ATS since Nov 24, 2011 coming off a game that went over the total by at least 14 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 0-7 O/U since Nov 30, 2014 after a home game where Tom Brady threw for at least 300 yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-10 O/U since Dec 01, 2013 as a dog coming off a win where they covered.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Redskins are 10-0 O/U since Dec 23, 2012 off a win as a dog where they scored at least 24 points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-14 ATS when they are off a game as a home favorite and facing a team that has completed at least 65 percent of their passes, season-to-date.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 7
October 22, 2016

The ‘over’ went 9-6 last week but some of those decisions were very fortunate to cash and there were four games that had late touchdowns scored in the final minutes to crush ‘under’ bettors.

Cleveland scored 13 points in the final two minutes against a Tennessee defense that’s been incredible in the second-half this season. Along with the game going ‘over’ the number, the Browns also earned the backdoor cover too with the late TDs.

The Giants and Ravens went back-and-forth in the fourth quarter and two late touchdowns in the last three minutes gave ‘over’ winners an improbable victory.

The Sunday Night finale between the Texans and Colts was probably the toughest to stomach if you had Indy or the ‘under’ in that game. Houston forced overtime with two touchdowns late and earned the win with a field goal in the extra session.

And I’m guessing most bettors had New England and the ‘over’ on Sunday in Tom Brady’s home debut and a meaningless TD with 52 seconds hurt bettors taking the ‘under’ while the public drilled the exacta.

Through six weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 49-42-1.

Quick Notes

It’s still early in the season but NFL ratings are down this season and pundits are pointing to a variety of factors. My argument for the decline would lean to the actual product on the field and the numbers back it up. The top five scoring offensive units from last season have watched their production decrease while the bottom five have all improved.

NFL POINTS PER GAME (2015-2016)
Team 2015 (PPG/Rank) 2016 (PPG/Rank)
Carolina 31.1 (1) 26.8 (6)
Arizona 29.4 (2) 25.5 (10)
New England 28.3 (3) 24.8 (13)
NY Giants 26.2 (4) 19.3 (25)
Cincinnati 25.6 (5) 18.2 (29)

Team 2015 (PPG/Rank) 2016 (PPG/Rank)
San Francisco 14.9 (32) 21.2 (19)
Dallas 17.2 (31) 26.5 (8)
Cleveland 17.4 (30) 26.5 (26)
Los Angeles 17.4 (29) 18.3 (28)
Tennessee 18.7 (28) 20 (22)

The Redskins, Falcons and Colts have all seen the ‘over’ start 5-1 this season behind solid quarterback play and average defensive units.

The Eagles (3.8 PPG) and Vikings (5.4 PPG) are ranked first and third respectively in second-half points per game, which has produced identical 4-1 ‘under’ marks in the final 30 minutes of their games. The pair meet Sunday and not surprisingly it’s the lowest total (39 ½) on the board.

Dating back to last season, the Saints have seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 on the road when the total is listed in the fifties. This week’s number for their game at Arrowhead versus the Chiefs is in that neighborhood.

Rise and Shine

The NFL International Series heads back to London, England this week as the Giants and Rams square off from Twickenham Stadium. The ‘over’ has gone 8-7 in the first 15 games from the United Kingdom and that includes the ‘over’ between the Jaguars and Colts in Week 4.

New York and Los Angeles are looking at total hovering between 43 and 44 points. The Rams have seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their divisional matchups while the ‘over’ is 3-0 in other games and the defense has allowed 32, 30 and 31 points in those games. The Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season but the defense has surrendered 24.8 points per game in their last four games.

The Giants played in the inaugural game from London in the 2007 season and they beat the Dolphins 13-10. The Rams made an overseas trip in 2012 when they were in St. Louis and they were hammered 45-7 by the Patriots.

Divisional Action

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and five of the last six encounters between the pair. As stated above, the Bengals offense has taken a serious dip this season (18.8 PPG) compared to last year’s numbers (25.6 PPG). Coincidentally, they’ll face former offensive coordinator Hugh Green in this week’s matchup but the Browns defense (29.3 PPG, 403 YPG) remains suspect.

Buffalo at Miami: The Bills lit up the Dolphins last season for 41 and 33 points as the ‘over’ connected very easily in both contests. This year’s Buffalo team has won four straight after starting 0-2 and the success has been defense (17.2 PPG) and running the football (166.5 YPG). The issue for Buffalo is running back LeSean McCoy could miss Sunday’s game. The Dolphins are coming off a 30-point performance last week against a beat-up Pittsburgh club but that effort appears to be an anomaly. Miami’s offense is ranked last in first downs per games and 25th in total yards (332.2)

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings and the Colts have averaged 33.3 PPG during this stretch. Colts QB Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans but they’ve also picked him off (7 INTs) more than any other team in his career and that unit is much improved this season.

Seattle at Arizona: (See Below)

Coast-to-Coast

I believe that trends can help your handicapping and while it’s not the “be-all and end-all” for every matchup, some angles deserve extra attention when they’re producing great results. In my Week 4 edition of Total Talk, I touched on West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone and how the ‘over’ produced solid results in those games.

In 2015, those contests saw the ‘over’ go 11-5 (69%) and this year’s results have been perfect with a 6-0 record to the high side.

Week 2 - San Francisco 27 at Carolina 46 – Over 44 ½
Week 3 - Arizona 18 at Buffalo 33 – Over 48
Week 3 - Los Angeles 37 at Tampa Bay 32 – Over 40 ½
Week 4 - Oakland 28 at Baltimore 27 - Over 45
Week 4 - Seattle 27 at N.Y. Jets 17 - Over 40
Week 6 - San Francisco 16 at Buffalo 45 - Over 44

We have two games on tap for Week 7 where the above situation applies and both games have high numbers posted.

Oakland at Jacksonville (47 ½)
San Diego at Atlanta (54 ½)

Under the Lights

We’ve had 19 primetime games this season and the ‘under’ has gone 11-8-1, which includes the result from the past Thursday between Chicago and Green Bay.

Seattle at Arizona: This is a very tough total to handicap because neither team has been consistent this season. They’ve both looked sluggish at times and blowout victories came against weaker foes. Arizona’s offense is down this season (see above) and the club has actually been a great ‘under’ bet at home (8-1-1) dating back to last season. Plus, Seattle’s defense (8.6 PPG) has been ridiculous on the road in its last seven regular season games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-2. What could have you leaning ‘over’ is the Russell Wilson factor. The QB is 5-3 overall and Seattle has averaged 30 PPG during this stretch, which includes 32 and 36-point efforts last season.

Houston at Denver: Low total (40 ½) for the MNF matchup and it’s a solid number just based on the defensive numbers for both the Broncos (18 PPG) and Texans (21.2 PPG). Plus, Houston has managed to scored 13 total points in two road games against quality completion (Patriots, Vikings) and hard to imagine a big spot here. The Broncos are playing with rest and the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in their last 10 games following the bye week.

Fearless Predictions

Despite losing my two total plays, I was fortunate to hit the team total and teaser wager (luckily) which kept the weekly ($20) losses low and overall bankroll ($430) in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Pittsburgh 47

Best Under: Buffalo-Miami 44 ½

Best Team Total: Over Cincinnati 28

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 48 Minnesota-Philadelphia
Under 59 Washington-Detroit
Under 49 ½ Houston-Denver

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 7
October 22, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6

Week 7

1) Minnesota -2.5 (751)

2) San Diego +6.5 (599)

3) Tennessee -2.5 (562)

4) New England -7 (506)

5) Miami +3 (489)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Chicago (+7.5) 89 Green Bay (-7.5) 105
N.Y. Giants (-3) 216 Los Angeles (+3) 287
Minnesota (-2.5) 751 Philadelphia (+2.5) 324
New Orleans (+6.5) 291 Kansas City (-6.5) 302
Washington (+1.5) 349 Detroit (-1.5) 236
Cleveland (+10) 209 Cincinnati (-10) 169
Buffalo (-3) 278 Miami (+3) 489
Oakland (+1) 413 Jacksonville (-1) 260
Indianapolis (+2.5) 158 Tennessee (-2.5) 562
Baltimore (PK) 313 N.Y. Jets (PK) 268
San Diego (+6.5) 599 Atlanta (-6.5) 206
Tampa Bay (-2) 199 San Francisco (+2) 263
New England (-7) 506 Pittsburgh (+7) 210
Seattle (+1.5) 412 Arizona (-1.5) 286
Houston (+7.5) 112 Denver (-7.5) 343

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 7
October 21, 2016

The public parlay bettors in Las Vegas are all in on the Patriots, Vikings, Raiders, Bills, Seahawks and Broncos, but the big concern for South Point sports book director Chris Andrews on Friday was the four games hovering around '3', the most key number in the NFL.

"We're a little different over here how we handle 3," said Andrews," so we've got big some exposure already."

What the South Point does different is being the only sports book to exclusively use flat numbers. You won't see -2.5 (-120), -3 (EV) or +3.5 (-120) on their boards on the south end of the strip.

While other books use it a way to deflect an onslaught of action by adding extra juice on a desired number, the South Point takes multiple limit bets at the flat key number before moving. Andrews says it usually takes three to four of those limit bets before moving up or down the ladder, but it's also dependent on what the market is showing.

So far through six weeks of action his book has been sided or middled just once with the favorite landing 3.

"The big one so far that has been one-sided is Tennessee (at home vs. Colts) who we opened -2.5, which they (sharps) laid, and then they laid -3 also, so we're real close to going to -3.5," said Andrews.

When they are eventually pushed to moved, they'll certainly get buy-back on the Colts at +3.5, a team whose last two losses were by three points each.

The Vikings opened -2.5 at Philadelphia on Monday and it didn't take long for the wagers to accumulate enough to move to -3. "We've bounced back and forth on that game," he said. "Each time at +3, we saw Philly action, but it's settled down a bit since Tuesday."

The Eagles were popular plays after they destroyed the Steelers 34-3 in Week 3, but after two straight losses, the public is off the wagon and sides with the Vikings coming off a bye who are the only team to win and cover all five of their games. A straight-up win by the Eagles is what the house wants here.

Just about every book in the city has the Giants -3 (EV) for their London game against the Rams -- MGM Resorts has -2.5 (-120). But Andrews is sitting -2.5-flat and he's ping ponged a couple times up to -3-flat. Large straight bet action accumulated enough taking +3 that he went back to -2.5 on Friday morning.

The Bills have been one or the more popular bets with small money this week in their game at Miami, but enough large wagers took the Dolphins +3 that Andrews dropped it down to -2.5 on Thursday. It's the only -2.5-flat on the Bills in town and while smaller wagers are adding up quickly on the Bills, he's sitting fine on the game, minus the huge Bills parlay risk.

The Bills have won and covered their last four coming in and have gone 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six meetings with Miami, but they'll be without its best player in RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring).

One of the more surprising bets of the week has been such early action on the Broncos for their Monday night home against the Texans. It's unusual to see the Monday night game get so much attention this early in the week, especially from the parlay players. When the South Point opened Denver -7 on Monday, they were bet up to -7.5 within two hours and then went to -8 on Thursday.

"I can see the logic behind the Denver wagers," said Andrews. "You've got Brock Osweiler making his return to Denver, and the Broncos last two losses had one without their starting quarterback and the other without their head coach. This kind of looks like a good spot for them to bounce back."

Gary Kubiak will be back coaching on the sidelines Monday and Trevor Siemian will be starting at QB,

Andrews said he also took big wagers on the Lions -1 at home against the Redskins and the Saints +7 at Kansas City. The Saints, typically not known for traveling well, have covered their last four road games.

The dreaded five-team parlay that could wipe the books out Sunday if all five cover are New England laying -7 at Pittsburgh (without Ben Roethlisberger), Minnesota (-3) at Philadelphia, Oakland (+1) at Jacksonville, Buffalo (-3) at Miami and Seattle (+2) at Arizona.

The sports books all across town will hope to avoid losing on a few of those consensus public plays on Sunday, but then they head into the Monday night game which is going to be a whopper of risk with everything piled into a game that has already been heavily bet early the week.

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 7
October 22, 2016

Week 6 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall Record: 16-20 SU, 13-23 ATS

Review: It's been anything but Lock-tober this month, as the Patriots were the lone team to cover in Week 6.

Vikings (-3, 39 ½) at Eagles – 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota
Record: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, UNDER 3-2
Super Bowl Odds: 6/1

The Vikings are fresh off the bye week as Minnesota is the lone unbeaten team in the NFL at 5-0. Sam Bradford began training camp with the Eagles, but was dealt to the Vikings following Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending knee injury. Bradford makes his return to Philadelphia as the Heisman Trophy winner has thrown six touchdown passes and no interceptions in four starts for Minnesota. Since Week 2 of 2015, the Vikings have compiled an incredible 19-2 ATS record the past 21 games, including nine consecutive covers on the road.

Philadelphia
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Eagles jumped out to a quick 3-0 start under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. However, Philadelphia has been grounded the last two weeks after losing at Detroit and Washington as a short road favorite. Philadelphia’s offense failed to bust the end zone in last week’s 27-20 defeat at Washington as Carson Wentz was limited to 11 completions and 279 yards passing. The Eagles own a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS record at home this season, as Philadelphia is hosting Minnesota for the first time since 2010 when the Vikings upset the Eagles as 14-point underdogs, 24-14.

Best Bet: Philadelphia +3

Saints at Chiefs (-6, 50 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans
Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Saints have erased an 0-3 hole by winning consecutive games against the Chargers and Panthers by a combined four points. New Orleans has topped the 32-point mark in four of five games, while holding off Carolina as a 2 ½-point home underdog last Sunday, 41-38. The OVER has cashed easily in the last three games, as the Saints’ defense has allowed an average of 39 points per game in this span. Since Week 3 of last season, New Orleans has compiled an amazing 9-2 ATS record in its past 11 opportunities in the role of an underdog.

Kansas City
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Chiefs have gone through an uneven start through the first five games, alternating wins and losses during this stretch. Kansas City shoots for its first two-game winning streak of the season after dominating Oakland last Sunday, 26-10 as one-point road favorites. The Chiefs held the dynamic Raiders’ offense to three points in the final 57 minutes, while Kansas City rushed for 183 yards and three different players found the end zone on the ground. Kansas City has taken back home-field advantage by winning seven straight games at Arrowhead Stadium since last October, but the Chiefs have covered only three times in this span.

Best Bet: Kansas City -6

Redskins at Lions (-1 ½, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

Washington
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Redskins have overcome an 0-2 start to run off four consecutive victories to sit one game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East. Washington improved to 2-1 inside the division after holding off Philadelphia, 27-20 as three-point home underdogs, while limiting the Eagles to 249 yards of offense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the 300-yard mark in each of the first two games (both losses), but hasn’t reached 300 yards passing in the last four contests, all victories. Washington has been dominant in the role of an underdog since last season, putting together an 8-1 SU/ATS record in its last nine when receiving points.

Detroit
Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Lions have been several exciting games at Ford Field this season as all three home contests have been decided by a total of five points. After blowing a fourth quarter lead in a Week 2 loss to Tennessee, Detroit held off Philadelphia and Los Angeles in close victories. The Lions posted their second-highest point total of the season in last Sunday’s 31-28 triumph over the Rams, as quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in the last two weeks. Detroit is hosting Washington for the first time since 2010, while the Lions beat the Redskins in their previous matchup in 2013 in D.C. by a 27-20 count.

Best Bet: Washington +1 ½

Raiders at Jaguars (-1, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Silver and Black put up a thud last Sunday in a 26-10 home defeat to the Chiefs, as Oakland has been outgained in all six games this season. With running back Latavius Murray sidelined, the Raiders’ rushing attack was grounded by picking up only 64 yards. Murray is expected back in the lineup on Sunday, but he has also struggled out of the gate by gaining 235 yards in four games following 1,066 yards in 2015. However, Oakland has thrived in the road underdog role since Jack Del Rio took over as head coach last season by posting a perfect 8-0 ATS mark, including outright wins this season at New Orleans and Baltimore.

Jacksonville
Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The AFC South may be the worst division in football, but you can’t say it’s not competitive. Jacksonville is one way away from the .500 mark after starting 0-3 as the Jaguars held off the Bears last Sunday, 17-16. The Jags scored all 17 of their points in the fourth quarter in spite of putting up only 311 yards for the game. Jacksonville has yet to bust through the win column at home as its first victory over Indianapolis came in London, as the Jaguars have lost six of their past nine games at Everbank Field since the start of 2015.

Best Bet: Oakland +1

Chargers at Falcons (-6, 54 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

San Diego
Record: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

There probably isn’t a team in the NFL that has played to more exciting finishes than the Chargers. Five of San Diego’s six games have come down to the final minutes, including last Thursday’s 21-13 home victory over Denver as three-point underdogs. After building a 21-3 advantage, the Broncos rallied to score 10 points and had a chance to tie the game on the final play, but couldn’t convert a Hail Mary pass. The Chargers travel to the east coast for the first time this season as San Diego has yet to win away from Qualcomm Stadium, owning an 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS road mark.

Atlanta
Record: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Falcons are back at home for the first time since outlasting the Panthers in Week 4, as Atlanta split a pair of road games in tough environments at Denver and Seattle the last two weeks. Atlanta lost a 26-24 heartbreaker in Seattle in Week 6, but the Falcons managed a cover as seven-point underdogs for their fifth consecutive cover. The Falcons are listed as a favorite for only the second time this season, as Atlanta has cashed just once in 10 chalk opportunities since 2015. Atlanta cashed seven UNDERS in eight games at the Georgia Dome last season, but has eclipsed the OVER in both home contests this season.

Best Bet: San Diego +6

Patriots (-7, 47 ½) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST

New England
Record: 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/2

What a difference one player makes. Or just Tom Brady coming back from his four-game suspension. Brady has totaled 782 passing yards in two blowout victories over the Browns and Bengals, while throwing three touchdown passes in each win. Not only are the Patriots sitting atop the AFC East at 5-1, but New England has covered in all five victories. New England held off Pittsburgh in the 2015 season opener, 28-21 as 7 ½-point home favorites, as Brady carved up the Steelers’ defense for four touchdown tosses. The Pats have captured six of the previous eight meetings since January 2005, but New England fell in its past visit to Pittsburgh in 2011 by a 25-17 count.

Pittsburgh
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Steelers will look to recover from last Sunday’s surprising 30-15 road favorite loss at Miami, as Pittsburgh also suffered a huge loss with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injuring his left knee. Big Ben will miss several weeks as backup Landry Jones is thrust into the starting role. Jones came in relief to beat the Cardinals as a home underdog last season, but lost in his only NFL start at Kansas City the following week. The Steelers own a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record at Heinz Field this season, while posting a 4-0 ATS mark in its past four home underdog opportunities since 2013.

Best Bet: New England -7

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 7 Essentials
October 21, 2016

Another NFL Sunday will open in London’s Wembley Stadium, so strap in for a longer session of marathon viewing. The Giants are supplying plenty of story lines to draw local interest, while the on-field circumstances – falling below .500 through seven games – should get our attention early. From top-to-bottom, it looks like the most entertaining card we’ve had in a few weeks. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 7:

Sunday, Oct. 23

N.Y. Giants vs. Los Angeles: Odell Beckham, Jr. comes off one of those games that single-handedly swing fantasy weeks, so it’s fitting his breakout won one for his actual squad, too. Not that he celebrated with them, but that’s another story. Beckham will look to shine overseas against a Rams secondary that is still without top corner Trumaine Johnson (ankle), who will miss another contest despite traveling and getting his walking boot off. The Rams defense has been a shell of itself due to injuries that have left Aaron Donald a little lonely, which is why they’ve surrendered 30.5 points over the past two games. Robert Quinn and William Hayes should be in the mix, while Michael Brockers (hip) will remain out. Beckham had a hip issue keep him out earlier in the week, but he’s fine and set to fuel an offense that got Rashad Jennings back and comes off matching its season-high with 27 points. Eli Manning is 4-0 in his career against the Rams, throwing 12 touchdowns and just one pick, while counterpart Case Keenum comes off a four-TD game where he set a franchise record with 19 straight completions. Robbie Gould will kick for New York instead of Josh Brown, who was left off the trip and placed on the commissioner's exempt list.

Minnesota at Philadelphia: Sam Bradford is back in Philly in all his undefeated glory, squaring off against rookie Carson Wentz, who still hasn’t lost at home and can therefore continue to walk on water. Carson City, Wentzylvania will continue to thrive if the No. 2 overall pick can excel against the NFL’s top defense, but he’s got his work cut out for him. Wentz was pressured into mistakes in losses at Detroit and Washington and no longer has Lane Johnson (suspension) protecting him up front, so this will be a telling test for his development. The Vikings have allowed a single offensive touchdown in each of their past two games, come off a bye and surrender a league-low 12.6 points per game. They’re 1-1 after bye weeks under Mike Zimmer, giving up 15.5 points. Stefon Diggs, the team’s top playmaker not on IR, is questionable with a groin injury that kept him out in Week 5 but has a legitimate shot to return. Philly’s top WR, Jordan Matthews, will play through a knee issue.

New Orleans at Kansas City: The Saints come off a huge win over Carolina to restore a little hope that this season won’t be a lost cause, but putting together a three-game winning streak is going to depend on them getting stops that have mostly eluded them thus far. Drew Brees hasn’t had a problem moving a Saints offense that averages 31.0 points, second-highest in the league, but the defense gives up an NFL-worst 33.6. Four of their five games have gone over the posted total, each reaching 69 or more points. New Orleans is hoping to have LB Dannell Ellerbe (quad) back, but has shaken up its linebacker corps in an effort to try and shake up a group without a number of guys it expected would be starters and key contributors. The Chiefs are far healthier and come off a statement road win in Oakland where the secondary shined again, Marcus Peters added another interception and an aggressive defense continued to thrive despite the continued absence of sack master Justin Houston (knee). He returned to practice on Wednesday, while LB Tamba Hali and CB Phillip Gaines got back from less significant knee ailments, so Kansas City should be able to overcome losing DE Allen Bailey (pectoral) for the season last week. The Saints lost the last meeting between these teams in 2012, but won in their last trip to Arrowhead in ’08.

Washington at Detroit: Both teams come in on winning streaks and would be part of the NFC playoff picture heading to the season’s halfway point with a win here. Detroit has had an edge in being able to play its last two games at Ford Field and finds itself there again, looking for dome-field advantage against a ‘Skins squad that is a perfect 2-0 on the road thus far and has won five straight dating back to last season. Winning without RBs Theo Riddick (ankle) and Ameer Abdullah will likely be the task for the Lions again this week with Riddick unlikely to get back. Newly-signed RB Justin Forsett should get carries alongside Zach Zenner, but most of the heavy lifting should again be done by Matthew Stafford. TE Eric Ebron (knee, ankle) has been out as well and will likely be a game-time decision, so Golden Tate could be in for another big day after coming up with a career-high 165 receiving yards against L.A. DE Ziggy Ansah (ankle) finally made it back last week, but Detroit’s defense could be missing top LB Deandre Levy (quad) and DT Haloti Ngata for a second straight game. Washington TE Jordan Reed and S Su’a Cravens remain in concussion protocol, but may be cleared in time to participate. WR DeSean Jackson is also optimistic he’ll return from a shoulder injury. Detroit has won three straight in the series, but the ‘Skins are looking for their first five-game winning streak since late 2012.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Bengals have defeated their AFC North rival Browns three straight times and won eight of 11, but this one could have a decidedly different feel. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings by a combined margin of 98-13, embarrassing Cleveland at every turn, but must now face the offensive coordinator at the helm for those wins, current Browns head coach Hue Jackson. Although he’s at the helm of the NFL’s only winless team, Cleveland has shown some improvement despite all its injuries and has covered two of its last three road games. Rookie QB Cody Kessler has had an impressive stint and will probably keep the job when Josh McCown (clavicle) returns, but pulling off an upset in the game oddsmakers see as Week 7’s most lopsided hinges on getting WR Terrelle Pryor and CB Joe Haden back from injuries. The Bengals may get TE Tyler Eifert back after an extended absence, so their offense could have more bite, a necessity since they’ve averaged 16.0 points over their four losses.

Buffalo at Miami: The Dolphins have won consecutive games only once over their last 30, so seeing them as a home underdog in this spot shouldn’t be a surprise. Miami did take apart Pittsburgh in Week 6’s biggest upset after injuring Ben Roethlisberger, so this is an opportunity to claw back into the AFC race. The Bills have won four straight since losing to the Jets at home, winning by double-digits and covering each time out. This week’s major question mark surrounds the availability of LeSean McCoy, who suffered a hamstring injury in practice and may sit this out. Marcell Dareus may finally return from a hammy ailment of his own, while rookie Shaq Lawson is certain to debut, so the Buffalo defensive line could be a force. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ projected starting offensive line was finally intact with Branden Albert and rookie Laremy Tunsil returning and Mike Pouncey settling in, so they’re optimistic after springing Jay Ajayi for over 200 yards and not allowing a single Ryan Tannehill sack. Buffalo has won five of six in the series.

Oakland at Jacksonville: The Jaguars survived getting blanked through three quarters when Blake Bortles hit a fortunate late TD pass to Arrelious Benn for a 17-16 win at Chicago. They’re as healthy as any team in the league at the moment and looking for their first three-game since 2013, which would only be their third such run this decade. Jacksonville is also in search of its first home victory since last December. The Raiders are tied for first place in the AFC West with defending champ Denver despite a poor showing in a home loss to Kansas City where they produced a season-low 10 points, managing just a field goal over the last three quarters. Look for the start here to be critical since the Raiders haven’t trailed after a first quarter all season, while the Jaguars have only led after one once, coming up with just two offensive touchdowns, both on short fields. Jack Del Rio is returning to Jacksonville for the first time as head coach of another team after compiling a 68-71 record while serving there from 2003-11, reaching the playoffs only twice. The Raiders have won the last two meetings, both against their current coach’s successors.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The Colts are looking for their 10th consecutive win in this series against their AFC South foe, having won 14 of 15. The last meeting featured Zach Mettenberger and Josh Freeman as starting QBs, but we did get one Andrew Luck/Marcus Mariota duel. The Colts won 35-33 when the Titans failed on a last-minute two-point conversion, so we could see another fun one. Indianapolis is desperate, looking to avoid a 2-5 start that would probably cost Chuck Pagano his job on top of last week’s collapse in Houston. The Titans are looking for their first three-game winning streak since early 2011 and are favored against the Colts for the first time since ’12, back in Luck’s first visit to Nashville. He won that 19-13 in OT and has never lost to Tennessee, but will have to survive this trip with a banged-up receiving corps working against a healthier Titans squad.

Baltimore at N.Y. Jets: New York turns to Geno Smith at QB in a move that seems to be coming from upstairs. Ryan Fitzpatrick rightfully lost the job, but it seemed like Todd Bowles wanted to give him one last chance in their most winnable game in weeks before being waved off. Smith was picked off in Arizona and has been intercepted in three of his last four appearances, making him 24-for-32 over his career. For once, the Jets will be facing a team that has had worse injury luck than they have, since it appears Baltimore will be without Steve Smith, Sr., and key offensive lineman Marshal Yanda in addition to having key defensive players Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, C.J. Mosely, Jimmy Smith all nursing injuries of varying degrees. QB Joe Flacco is nursing a shoulder issue and hasn’t practiced, so he looks like a game-time decision. Flacco has never lost against the Jets, who have dropped their last eight against the Ravens, winning only the inaugural meeting back in 1997 (20-17 OT).

San Diego at Atlanta: The Falcons managed to rally from an ugly start in Seattle and convinced any remaining doubters that they’re for real despite a 26-24 loss. They lead the NFL in scoring (33.2) and look far more proficient than last year, when they fell apart after a 5-0 start. We’ll see if they have staying power this season, but they’ve got an obscene array of weapons. Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman form the top RB combo in the league, Julio Jones is among the top receivers and Atlanta’s tight ends can all stretch the field. Mohamed Sanu (groin), who has also been a huge asset, is the only significant offensive player hurting. The Chargers are traveling cross-country on extra rest after an upset of the Broncos on Oct. 13 but have started 0-3 on the road. San Diego has never won at the Georgia Dome and hasn’t beaten Atlanta in six tries dating back to its last win back in 1988.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick will make his second start for the 49ers, coming off an erratic performance in a 45-15 loss at Buffalo where he wasn’t intercepted but created few big plays. San Francisco’s offense has run the NFL’s most plays under Chip Kelly, but that has put his injury-depleted defense in a tough spot since time of possession isn’t a priority and his offense hasn’t been productive. No team has given up more points than San Francisco, which hopes to turn things around by feasting on an opponent that also ranks among the league’s worst in point-differential. Coming off a bye week after an upset of Carolina, the Bucs are looking to get to .500 if they can overcome the continued absence of RB Doug Martin and WR Vincent Jackson, who was just put on IR. This will be the Bucs’ first trip to Santa Clara-based Levi’s Stadium and Jameis Winston’s first game against the Niners. Tampa Bay has lost four of the last five on this series.

New England at Pittsburgh: The Steelers hope their homefield advantage can keep this close to steal as they open up a stretch without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger against the mighty Patriots. After minor knee surgery earlier this week, Roethlisberger won’t be available for a few weeks, which leaves Landry Jones to man a potent offense. Keeping things simple and getting the ball to elite playmakers Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell should be a formula for success, but Jones playing well enough to win is only half the battle. Pittsburgh remains without DE Cameron Hayward (hamstring) but are expected to get LB Ryan Shazier (knee) back in the mix. Tom Brady will have to be careful with the football against a defense that’s faster than most, so there’s a chance the Steelers can stay perfect at home. Dating back to last season, they’ve won seven straight at Heinz Field. New England has won six of eight in the series, including three of four in Pittsburgh.

Seattle at Arizona: There shouldn’t be many opportunities to nod off in this Sunday night game as the NFC West’s top two teams clash. The Cardinals can now move back above .500 if they hold serve at home in what will be their fifth outing in Glendale, which is another reason why they don’t want to let this one get away. Seattle can grab a 2.5-game lead in the division, not to mention a head-to-head edge with a home game remaining, if it can pull this upset. The Seahawks may be without safety Kam Chancellor (groin), which would be an even bigger loss given Richard Sherman’s sideline outburst last week shedding light on the disharmony among their elite secondary. DEs Michael Bennett and Frank Clark are likely to play, so Seattle should get after Carson Palmer, who has missed practices this week due to a hamstring issue. He’s not very mobile as it is, so Arizona may have to turn back to Drew Stanton as it looks for a third straight win. Seattle won in Arizona 36-6 in Week 17 last season and hasn’t lost there since 2012, taking the last three meetings by a combined margin of 105-34.

Monday, Oct. 24

Houston at Denver: This one is the Brock Osweiler Bowl. Despite largely disappointing, the former Broncos backup has led the Texans to a 4-2 start, putting them atop the AFC South. If you checked out of the Sunday night game early, you were likely shocked when you awoke to news Houston came back to beat the Colts in OT. Osweiler led the comeback, saving his best throws for last, but mostly struggled until the final few drives. He can’t afford a sluggish start on the road against a defense that has made no secret that they would love to tear their former teammate apart. Texans CB Johnathan Joseph (forearm) will play, CB Kareem Jackson (hamstring) is likely but safety Quintin Demps (calf) probably won’t play, so their secondary remains injury-plagued. That’s good news for Trevor Siemian, who looked shaky in a Thursday night road loss at San Diego as the Broncos struggled with protection. Denver has won three of the five meetings since 2004, including a 37-13 rout in Houston in ’13.

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SNF - Seahawks at Cardinals
October 22, 2016

The Cardinals come into Sunday Night Football as 1.5-point home favorites over the Seahawks in a critical NFC West battle where it's almost a 'do or die' situation for Arizona. The Cardinals have already played four games at home to a 2-2 record meaning after this week that they'll have only three home field edges in the final nine games of the season. There's urgency, for sure.

Seattle looked extremely sluggish in its first two games scoring a total of 15 points, including a 9-3 loss at Los Angeles, but they've been rather efficient in winning their last three averaging 30 points a game. They've won and covered their last three in the desert, but the Cards come in off their best game of the season in a 28-3 Monday night home win against the Jets to even their record at 3-3.

LINE MOVEMENT

The South Point opened the Cardinals -2 on Tuesday following the Monday night win and on Friday they took a Seattle wager to drop them down to -1.5. The total has been steady at 43.5 since opening. Before the Jets win the Westgate SuperBook opened Arizona -1 Sunday night and Seattle money pushed them to pick 'em an hour before Monday night kickoff. Way back in April, CG Technology made the Cards -1 when posting lines for every game of the first 16 weeks.

WHO DO THE BETTORS LIKE?

The Seahawks have been a popular wager at William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada. They've taken in 91 percent of the point-spread action on Seattle and 71 percent of the tickets written on them. Guess the public doesn't think much of the Cardinals getting back to .500, or them being at home? Just for a reference, the public ganging up on team usually means the weight is too heavy and the other team wins. But isolated night games have been very good to the public's intuition this season.

ROBERTS' NUMBER

I have Seattle rated 1.5-point better than Arizona on a neutral field and I give the Cardinals +2.5 for home field, which makes my number Arizona -1. The only reason Arizona doesn't get the full 3-point advantage is because they're playing a better team. You could argue the Arizona home edge against Seattle is worth only 1-point and I wouldn't have many come back support for the Cards. Let's face it, the Cardinals are 3-3 now on a two-game win streak, but wins against the Jets, 49ers and Buccaneers, who are a combined 4-13 between them, don't lend many argument points. Will that 2015 teams show up soon? Let's see it first before believing it will happen. Last week was a decent start in believing the Cards may soon be back to themselves.

RECENT MEETINGS

Seattle has won and covered three of the past four meetings, including a 36-6 Week 17 win last season when Arizona was listed as a sxi-point home favorite. At the time, the Cardinals still had something to play for regrading the playoffs conditional upon what Carolina did, but the game was over quick as Seattle jumped out to a 30-6 lead. The total managed to still stay 'under' the number (46.5). At the time, many oddsmakers had the Cardinals power rated No. 1 in the NFL. When the two teams met in November at Seattle, Arizona won 39-32 as a three-point underdog.

TRENDS

-- Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
-- Seattle is 1-6 ATS in last seven games following a win.
-- Seattle has stayed 'under' in 13 of their last 19 games against NFC West teams.

-- Arziona is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against losing teams.
-- Arizona has stayed 'under' total in last eight home games.
-- Arizona is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games.

KEY INJURIES

Seattle DB Kam Chancellor (groin) is expected to miss while Arizona G Mike Iupati (ankle) is probable. Cardinals WR Josh Brown (hamstring) is doubtful.

NEXT WEEK

Arizona gets a rematch at Carolina in Week 8, the team that ended the Cardinals 2015 season in the NFC Championship. The Westgate opened the 1-5 Panthers as 1-point favorites for their early lines, which come out each Tuesday. Seattle is 5.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

WEEK 10 BATTLE

We saw the matchup in the Super Bowl two years ago, and when they meet again in Week 10 the Westgate's updated Game of the Year numbers have New England listed as a six-point home favorite over the Seahawks. If we shoot ahead to Week 13. Seattle is seven-point home favorite against Carolina. The Panthers won at Seattle, 27-23, in Week 6 last season as seven-point 'dogs and beat them again, 31-24, at Carolina as 2.5-point favorites in the Divisional Playoff round.

NFC WEST ODDS

The Westgate opened Seattle as the 5/7 favorite to win the division and it's now 5/12. Arizona was 7/5 before the season, but their two-game win streak has them at 2/1 with respect given to them on the notion that the balance of the entire division swings with this Sunday night game.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

Seattle is a 6/1 co-favorite among NFC teams to win the Super Bowl along with the Minnesota Vikings. The Cardinals are getting tons of respect for what they're capable of with 12/1 odds. Dallas is 10/1 and Green Bay is 12/1. The hot team in the NFC right now, Atlanta, is 20/1 to win their first Super Bowl. New England is the 5/2 overall favorite.

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SUNDAY, OCTOBER 23

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NO at KC 01:00 PM

O 51.5

MIN at PHI 01:00 PM

PHI +3.0

U 39.0

CLE at CIN 01:00 PM

CLE +11.0

U 46.5

OAK at JAC 01:00 PM

OAK +2.0 *****

BAL at NYJ 01:00 PM

U 40.0

BUF at MIA 01:00 PM

MIA +2.5 *****

WAS at DET 01:00 PM

WAS -1.5 *****

O 50.0 *****

IND at TEN 01:00 PM

TEN -4.0 *****

O 48.0

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SD at ATL

SD +4.5

O 52.5

TB at SF

SF -1.0 *****

U 45.0

NE at PIT 04:25 PM

PIT +7.5 *****

O 49.0

SEA at ARI 08:30 PM

SEA +1.0 *****

U 43.5 *****

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NFL Capsules
October 24, 2016

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) Seattle's Stephen Hauschka and Arizona's Chandler Catanzaro missed short field goals that would have won it in overtime and the Seahawks and Cardinals tied 6-6 on Sunday night.

Hauschka's 27-yard field goal was wide left with seven seconds left after Catanzaro's 24-yarder bounced off the left upright.

The last tie in the NFL came in 2014, when Carolina and Cincinnati tied 37-37. The tie was the Cardinals' first since Dec. 7, 1986, a 10-10 draw at Philadelphia when the franchise was based in St. Louis. It was the first for the Seattle since entering the NFL in 1976.

The Cardinals (3-3-1) dominated the game statistically and looked to be in shape to win it after Carson Palmer's 40-yard pass to J.J. Nelson set up Catanzaro's short kick.

The Seahawks (4-1-1), stuffed throughout regulation by the Arizona defense, took over and Russell Wilson completed passes of 31 yards to Jermaine Kearse and 27 yards to Doug Baldwin to give Houschka his short attempt. Both kickers made field goals on their teams' first possession of overtime.

Catanzaro, who kicked field goals of 46 and 45 yards, also had a 39-yard field goal blocked by a stunning play by Bobby Wagner when he hurdled Arizona long snapper Aaron Brewer.

Cardinals coach Bruce Arians argued loudly for a penalty and was charged with a timeout when he challenged a play that is not reviewable. That proved significant when the Cardinals couldn't stop the clock to get off a short field goal attempt as the first half ended.

EAGLES 21, VIKINGS 10

PHILADELPHIA (AP) - Josh Huff returned a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown, Carson Wentz outplayed Sam Bradford and Philadelphia handed Minnesota its first loss of the season.

The Eagles (4-2) snapped a two-game slide while the rested Vikings (5-1) hardly looked like an unbeaten team after having a bye.

Bradford returned to Philadelphia for the first time since his trade to Minnesota eight days before the season opener paved the way for Wentz to start. Bradford was 7-7 in his only season with the Eagles and won his first four starts for the Vikings.

But the Eagles pressured and harassed their former quarterback all game, sacked him six times, and forced his first three turnovers this season.

DOLPHINS 28, BILLS 25

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) - Jay Ajayi tied an NFL record by surpassing 200 yards rushing for the second game in a row. Ajayi rushed for 214 yards in 29 carries after totaling 204 yards a week earlier in a win over Pittsburgh. He scored on a 4-yard run , and busted a 53-yarder when the Dolphins were pinned at their 3 and trailing in the fourth quarter.

The Dolphins (3-4) used an extra lineman much of the time to clear big holes for Ajayi, who tied the NFL record for consecutive 200-yard games held by O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams.

Miami overcame an 11-point deficit with 16 minutes left to end a four-game winning streak by the Bills (4-3) and beat them for only the second time in their past seven meetings.

Buffalo RB LeSean McCoy, ranked second in the NFL in rushing, started, but totaled only 11 yards in eight carries before departing with a hamstring problem.

PATRIOTS 27, STEELERS 16

PITTSBURGH (AP) - LeGarrette Blount ran for 127 yards and two scores while Tom Brady completed 19 of 26 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns.

Steelers quarterback Landry Jones played capably while filling in for Roethlisberger, who watched from the sideline after undergoing left knee surgery last week.

Making his third career start, Jones threw for 281 yards with a touchdown and an interception. But undermanned Pittsburgh (4-3) lost its second straight when its defense failed to keep Brady under wraps.

New England (6-1) remained perfect since Brady returned from his four-game "Deflategate" suspension, emphatically responding to a push by the Steelers with a pair of second-half touchdowns. Brady improved to 9-2 against the Steelers, throwing for 26 touchdowns and three interceptions.

CHARGERS 33, FLACONS 30

ATLANTA (AP) - Josh Lambo's 42-yard field goal in overtime gave San Diego its first road win of the year as the Chargers rallied from a 17-point deficit.

The Chargers (3-4) trailed 27-10 in the second quarter. They had lost 11 of their past 12 road games.

Linebacker Denzel Perryman delivered two key plays late in the game. Perryman's interception of Matt Ryan's pass for Julio Jones set up Lambo's tying 33-yard field goal with 18 seconds remaining in regulation.

Perryman's fourth-and-1 stop on running back Devonta Freeman gave San Diego the ball at Atlanta's 43 for the Chargers' winning drive. Perryman grabbed Freeman's feet behind the line for the key tackle on the Falcons' gamble.

CHIEFS 27, SAINTS 21

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - Alex Smith threw two touchdown passes in another efficient outing, and Daniel Sorensen returned an interception of Drew Brees for another touchdown.

Spencer Ware ran for 77 yards to go with his 46-yard touchdown reception, and Tyreek Hill made an acrobatic 38-yard TD catch to help the Chiefs (4-2) win their ninth straight at home.

Brees got the Saints (2-4) within 24-21 with his touchdown pass to Brandon Coleman with 2:33 left, but the ensuing onside kick went out of bounds. Kansas City added a 41-yard field goal, and the Saints could do nothing in the final 28 seconds.

Brees finished with 367 yards and three TD passes.

RAIDERS 33, JAGUARS 16

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Latavius Murray scored twice in his return from turf toe, and the Raiders gave coach Jack Del Rio a victory against his former team.

Murray, who missed the past two games, finished with 59 yards on 18 carries. Michael Crabtree caught eight passes for 96 yards and a touchdown from Derek Carr, Sebastian Janikowski kicked four field goals, and the Raiders played the kind of defense they've been looking for all season.

The result was the team's most complete win of the season. Oakland improved to 4-0 on the road and moved to 5-2 for the first time since 2001.

The Jaguars (2-4), meanwhile, dropped a third straight at EverBank Field and added more speculation about the future of coach Gus Bradley. Jacksonville fell to 14-40 during Bradley's four seasons, and the latest loss was filled with poor execution on both sides of the ball and a lack of discipline down the stretch.

LIONS 20, REDSKINS 17

DETROIT (AP) - Matthew Stafford threw a go-ahead, 18-yard touchdown pass to Anquan Boldin with 16 seconds left.

The Lions (4-3) extended their winning streak to three games. The Redskins (4-3) had won four straight.

Stafford, who set up game-winning kicks in the previous two games, led his team to another win in the 100th game of his career. He was 18 of 29 for 266 yards, one TD and no turnovers.

Kirk Cousins scored a go-ahead TD on a 19-yard run with 1:05 left.

The Redskins, though, failed to stop Stafford from throwing or running on his last possession and could not overcome mistakes that included turnovers, a missed field goal and penalties.

GIANTS 17, RAMS 10

LONDON (AP) - The Giants capitalized on four interceptions of Case Keenum in the first NFL game played at London's home of English rugby, a sold-out and raucous Twickenham Stadium.

Keenum, coming off the best start of his career, had the Rams at the Giants' 15-yard line with 50 seconds left when he lobbed a pass in the left corner of the end zone that Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie easily picked off. Keenum's intended target, Brian Quick, failed to get the quarterback's audible and cut off his route early.

Keenum, who finished 32 of 53 for 291 yards and one touchdown, has thrown an interception on the Rams' final offensive play of the last three games. That likely will fuel debate on a potential quarterback change to overall No. 1 draft pick Jared Goff.

Landon Collins returned his first of two picks 44 yards for a second-quarter touchdown, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie also had two interceptions.

BENGALS 31, BROWNS 17

CINCINNATI (AP) - A.J. Green's one-handed catch in the middle of an end zone scrum highlighted Cincinnati's day full of big plays.

Green's 48-yard touchdown catch on the final play of the first half helped the Bengals (3-4) regain their footing in the injury-depleted AFC North. The defending division champions piled up their most points since they beat the Browns 37-3 last December. Jeremy Hill had a 74-yard touchdown run as part of his 168-yard effort, the best by a Bengals running back in seven years.

The Browns (0-7) extended their worst start since 1999, when they were a first-year expansion team. The NFL's only winless team also lost yet another quarterback - the theme of their season. Cody Kessler got hit hard while throwing a shovel pass in the second quarter, then went to the locker for a concussion evaluation and was ruled out. That left the offense in the hands of undrafted rookie Kevin Hogan, the Browns' sixth quarterback of the season.

COLTS 34, TITANS 26

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - Andrew Luck threw a 7-yard touchdown pass to Jack Doyle with 1:55 left to put Indianapolis ahead to stay, and the Colts rallied to beat the Titans for their 10th straight win against their AFC South rival.

The Colts (3-4) came in having lost two of three, including blowing a 14-point lead in an overtime loss last week at Houston. But Luck he improved to 8-0 against the Titans with yet another comeback win. He finished with 353 yards passing and three TDs, the last after Tennessee went up 23-20.

T.Y. Hilton caught seven passes for 133 yards, including a 37-yard TD. The Colts shook off 12 penalties for 131 yards in pulling out their 15th win in 16 games against Tennessee.

The Titans (3-4) saw their two-game winning string end.

Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri kicked a pair of field goals, and the second, a 33-yarder with 3:46 left in the third quarter gave him an NFL record 43 consecutive field goals made.

JETS 24, RAVENS 16

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) - Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced an injured Geno Smith and led the Jets on three scoring drives, and a rejuvenated defense came up with two rare interceptions.

Fitzpatrick came in for Smith in the second quarter and led the Jets on a go-ahead drive capped by a 13-yard touchdown catch by Matt Forte. Fitzpatrick finished 9 of 14 for 120 yards and a touchdown as the Jets (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak.

Smith injured his right knee while taking a sack from Baltimore's Matthew Judon. Fitzpatrick was efficient after losing his job earlier in the week.

Joe Flacco started for Baltimore (3-4), loser of four in a row, after being questionable with a sore shoulder. He went a team-record 176 consecutive throws without an interception before Buster Skrine picked off his pass in the third quarter.

BUCCANEERS 34, 49ERS 17

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - Jameis Winston threw three touchdown passes and Jacquizz Rodgers ran for 154 yards.

The Bucs (3-3) fell behind by 14 points early before scoring 27 straight to deal the Niners (1-6) their sixth straight loss for San Francisco's longest losing streak since 2008.

Mike Evans caught eight passes for 96 yards and two touchdowns, Russell Shepard scored on a 19-yard pass from Winston, and Peyton Barber iced the game with a 44-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter to help Tampa Bay win its second straight game around its bye week.

Colin Kaepernick struggled in his second start of the season for the 49ers, going 16 for 34 for 143 yards and turning the ball over twice after kneeling once again for the national anthem.

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Mixed results in Week 7
October 24, 2016

Las Vegas sports books had mixed results during NFL Week 7 action Sunday where the underdogs ruled the day going 8-4-1 ATS while seven of them winning outright. Some books showed a small win, or were break even while others ended up small losers on the day. The one game most bet shops were unified with was taking a big loss when the Patriots (-7.5) won at Pittsburgh, 27-16.

"We came out on the short end today,' said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "It was kind of odd the way things unfolded. A lot of the games were fairly balanced and we didn't have any real big decisions, but the few we did have we lost with. We lost with the Browns and Raiders and the really big one was us needing the Steelers."

The Patriots have now covered three straight in dominating fashion since Tom Brady returned in Week 5. Their excellence is becoming a thorn in the books side.

"The Patriots are now 6-1 against-the-spread," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "And the players cash every week with them."

The other team that has the bookmakers scratching their heads through the first seven weeks is the Browns, who lost 31-17 at Cincinnati (-11.5).

"I'm not sure what we're going to do with those Browns," said Kornegay. "They're just a really bad team, but they were getting double digits against an average team this week. They just play bad football, and I realize that the NFL is based on parity, but it seems like it's the same bad product every week with them."

So if the bettors keep laying whatever spread is posted on the Patriots and whoever the Browns play, why not put an extra 20 percent luxury tax on the spread for each?

"We're already building in higher spreads with the Browns and Patriots," Kornegay said, noting the Browns are still the only winless team and are 2-5 ATS.

While most books had a tough team escaping the Patriots-Bengals two-team parlay, one chain of books in particular managed to do just that. When MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback was asked how bad the Patriots game was, he had a different response from everyone else.

"No, actually we didn't lose the Patriots game," he said. "We took a couple of casino guests six figure wagers on the Steelers that helped us avoid losing on what was probably our most one-sided games with tickets written."

However, all the visitors at his 10 books across the strip were all over the Browns and there were no whales to balance things out.

"The one really bad game we had was the Bengals."

The MGM books were one of the few to show a solid profit on the day

"Our big wins on the day were the Eagles (+3 vs Vikings), Jets (-2 vs Ravens), Lions (+1 vs Redskins) and Buccaneers (+1.5 at San Francisco)," Stoneback said. "The Colts beating the Titans (-4) were almost in that same category."

Wise guys maneuvered strong throughout the week taking aim at all four games hovering around the key number of 3, taking both sides at optimal prices which put the bookmakers in sweat mode in at least one of those when the Titans had a 23-20 lead with two minutes to. Wise guys had bet the Titans heavy at -2.5, -3 and -3.5, but the Colts had other sharp groups taking +3.5. Indianapolis allowed the books to rest easy in the closing moments of a 34-26 win. The underdog ended up winning three of those games

The Sunday night game with the Cardinals (-2.5) and Seahawks ending up a 6-6 draw at Arizona was also a mixed bag around town. William Hill's 108 sports book across Nevada reported they'd break even on the day if Seattle covered, while Stations would drop down to a very small winner with them. CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said they needed Seattle to complete a good day.

Stoneback said his books didn't have too big of a decision with either Arizona or Seattle, but he was already sweating the Monday night risk.

"We're in a bad spot with Denver Monday night, not only because of all the individual wagers on them throughout the week, but we've got a couple of huge parlays live going into that game," he said. "We took a few $10,000 and $5,000 parlays that had the Packers on Thursday night with a few Saturday (college football) games that are all live with the Broncos money-line."

The Broncos opened up as 6.5-point home favorites against the Texans and have been bet up to as high as -9 -- mostly to protect against teasers once the spread reached -8. Stoneback is trying to limit risk by offering the most attractive money-line price in town with the Texans at +330.

"We're like 30 or 20 cents higher than anyone else on the Texans money-line but haven't had any takers."