The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (2 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 4) - 10/27/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (4 - 3) vs. CINCINNATI (3 - 4) - 10/30/2016, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (4 - 2) at ATLANTA (4 - 3) - 10/30/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (4 - 3) at HOUSTON (4 - 2) - 10/30/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 128-164 ATS (-52.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (4 - 1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 4) - 10/30/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 32-59 ATS (-32.9 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (6 - 1) at BUFFALO (4 - 3) - 10/30/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 228-184 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 228-184 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 178-134 ATS (+30.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 173-137 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 102-74 ATS (+20.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (2 - 5) at CLEVELAND (0 - 7) - 10/30/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (5 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 3) - 10/30/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 43-77 ATS (-41.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (4 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 4) - 10/30/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (3 - 4) at DENVER (4 - 2) - 10/30/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (3 - 3 - 1) at CAROLINA (1 - 5) - 10/30/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (4 - 2) at DALLAS (5 - 1) - 10/30/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (5 - 1) at CHICAGO (1 - 6) - 10/31/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 27

8:25 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. TENNESSEE
Jacksonville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, October 30

9:30 AM
WASHINGTON vs. CINCINNATI
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Detroit's last 21 games on the road
Detroit is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games at home
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
New England is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. CLEVELAND
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home
Carolina is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Arizona

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Kansas City

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games
New Orleans is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing Denver
San Diego is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego
Denver is 2-8-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against San Diego

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ATLANTA
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games at home

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games


Monday, October 31

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Minnesota

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 8 on the way…….

— Tennessee is 3-12 vs spread in its last 15 games.

— Oakland covered its last seven road games.

— Buffalo is 14-7-1 in its last 22 divisional games.

— Cowboys are 8-3 vs spread after their last 11 byes.

— Chargers covered nine of their last eleven games.

— New Orleans is 11-3-1 in its last 15 games as a dog.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL with 703 rushing yards thus far in 2016.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 50)

Chiefs' slot problems vs. Hilton's remarkable consistency

Andrew Luck has had to make chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what the past few weeks, dealing with a spate of injuries to his receiving corps. With Donte Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett and Dwayne Allen all missing last week's game, Luck was down to a pair of reliable targets - T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle. And while Doyle was solid in his own right, it was Hilton's 7-133-1 line that buoyed the Colts to victory - and he's in great position to repeat those sensational statistics this week.

Hilton has been one of the most consistently good slot receivers in the sport, as evidenced by his last four years of Pro Football Focus grades. He posted an 83.1 grade in 2013, an 84.2 mark in 2014 and an 83.3 grade last season, and he has an 83.4 rating through seven games this year. He's ranked 10th among wide receivers in 2016 despite often facing the toughest coverage assignments, particularly with Moncrief and Dorsett out of action.

Sunday, he'll likely be matched up against second-year Chiefs slot cornerback Steven Nelson, who has a pitiful 48.4 PFF grade - 97th among 115 graded cornerbacks. His coverage rating (48.5) is virtually identical to his overall grade, and suggests he'll be completely overmatched against the speedy, elusive Hilton. Look for Indianapolis to exploit this one-sided matchup and feed Hilton all afternoon long, which should mean big things for the veteran Colts wideout.

Daily fantasy watch: WR T.Y. Hilton


Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 49)

Raiders' elite pass attack vs. Bucs' pass defense struggles

Derek Carr probably considers himself doubly blessed, and with good reason - in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, he has two of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL on his side. And while much of the attention early in the season has been on the Raiders' inability to slow down opposing offenses, they've stayed in the majority of their games thanks to the 1-2 punch Cooper and Crabtree have provided. And those two should feast this weekend in Tampa Bay.

Cooper (82.5) and Crabtree (82.1) rank 11th and 12th, respectively, in PFF ratings among wide receivers; Oakland is the only team in the league to have two top-20 receiving options in the PFF rankings. They have identical 82.2 receiving grades, with Cooper the chain-moving target hog with three 120-yard games to his credit and Crabtree the red-zone option of choice. They're a big reason why Oakland has a top-12 passing offense and 13 TDs through the air.

Sunday's matchup will be a rough one for the Buccaneers' secondary, which comes into this one having allowed 10 passing scores against just four interceptions. Five members of the Tampa Bay base defense have grades below 50, including linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander and defensive back Chris Conte. Oakland's defense is weak enough to force Carr to air it out, and against a subpar Tampa Bay unit, the Raiders pass attack should thrive.

Daily fantasy watch: WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-5, 43.5)

Chargers' late leaks vs. Broncos' fourth-quarter fury

The NFL is a fourth-quarter league - as in, if you can't score late, you probably won't win many games. An NFL-record 80 games have seen teams within seven points of each other at some point in the final quarter through seven weeks, so those late scoring drives have never been more important. And that bodes well for the Denver Broncos, who entertain a San Diego Chargers team this weekend that has significant trouble limiting fourth-quarter points.

The Broncos have been one of the most prolific fourth-quarter teams in the league, scoring 81 of their 167 points in the final 12 minutes over their first seven games. Their 11.6 fourth-quarter points-per-game average ranks second in the NFL, behind only the Colts (12.1). That mark is even higher at Sports Authority at Mile High Stadium, where Denver is averaging 12.8 fourth-quarter points over its first four home games.

San Diego had the Broncos' number in their meeting two weeks ago in California, escaping with a 21-13 win. But the Chargers allowed 10 fourth-quarter points in that one to let Denver make a game of it, and the 10.1 fourth-quarter points they surrender per game is the sixth-worst rate in football. San Diego will need to have a decent-sized lead in this one through three quarters if they hope to earn a pivotal season sweep of the defending champs.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Devontae Booker


Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 43.5)

Eagles' questionable run defense vs. Cowboys' remarkable rush attack

No one can say the Philadelphia Eagles have a bad defense; it's quite the opposite, in fact, as they've allowed the third-fewest passing yards in the NFL while surrendering just six passing touchdowns through six games. But if there's one area where the Eagles may be exploitable, it's through the rushing game - and few teams are more capable of making teams pay on the ground than the surging Dallas Cowboys and their ultra-talented rookie running back.

The Eagles' base defense boasts six players with PFF grades north of 80, but the right side of the defensive line hasn't been nearly as impressive. RE Connor Barwin (71.7) and RT Beau Allen (44.8) represent a soft spot in Philadelphia's otherwise elite defensive line; their struggles have played a big part in the Eagles surrendering a whopping 4.5 yards per carry, the ninth-worst rate in the league. On the plus side, they've only surrendered three rushing scores.

Expect that number to climb this week, as they match up with one of the most formidable rush units in football. Three of Dallas' five offensive lineman have PFF grades above 83.5, with no member scoring below 66. Add in the explosiveness and power of Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott, who leads the NFL with 703 rushing yards, and it's clear that Dallas has a significant advantage in the ground game this week. Look for another big game from Zeke.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 8 lines that make you go hmmm...

Oh crap, Buffalo, Brady is back. The Patriots, who were shutout by the Bills without their No. 1 QB in Week 4, are 22-2 SU in Brady's last 24 starts against Buffalo.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+6.5, 47.5)

Everything is situational. And we’ve found a good one this week for sure. Sometimes I make a case so strong, I even believe it. But when New England visits Buffalo, the planets seem to align.

Let’s start with how the Patriots were grilled by Buffalo in their first clash in New England. For that, the Patriots have revenge on their minds. New England was without its starting quarterback for that game. For that, they will be that much better. Tom Brady is 22-2 in his starts versus Buffalo. That makes the Patriots confident. The Bills are down their top receiver and their top running back, meaning the Bills are weaker than they were in that Week 4 meeting.

Buffalo’s sails were stripped of momentum against the Dolphins and for some reason the defensive line was totally exposed by Miami’s running game. The Patriots have size at running back and tight end and the short, slashing passes that New England employs have always kept the Bills at bay. New England took no time to get its rhythm back with Brady at the helm and we just don’t see the Bills surprising the Patriots twice in one season - particularly the way the two teams are currently playing.

I had this line at New England -7.5, and I know the wiseguys would have eaten that up in a second. But since this is at -6 to 6.5, steal it on the other end and take the stronger team before this gets to -7.


Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 49)

Though I’m splitting hairs as to what I made the Oakland at Tampa Bay line, this game is definitely around the pick’em level. For the record, I have Oakland favored by -1.5 to -2.

It’s pretty hard to knock the success the Raiders have had on the road to this juncture. Their away record stands at 4-0 SU and ATS. This will be their last road game before they settle into four straight weeks at home.

Tampa Bay, too, has found success on the road but has been spellbound twice at home so far. The total breathes that the nature of the game will be wide open and full of offense. So, we’re not concerned that early betting misses the mark.

What we do like is that Oakland QB Derek Carr is getting synced up with WR Crabtree and that pairing may be the difference in this game. The Raiders have won four of their past five games and last week’s win against Jacksonville was a nice statement game after their loss to Kansas City the week before.

Tampa Bay’s wins the past two weeks were against two teams with a combined two wins for the season and 0-8 the past four weeks. The Buccaneers are certainly worthy of staying close but we’re just asking Oakland to win. Take the Raiders and any points you can get.


Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (+3, 47.5)

Seattle faces off against New Orleans in the Big Easy where one thing is for sure: the track will be dry and fast. I’m looking at the total in this one, where I made this closer to 51 to 52. Sure, we saw an ugly offensive contest when the Seahawks tied Arizona Monday. But the last Under Seattle played before that was against Los Angeles in Week 2. Both of those games were against two of the better defensive teams in the NFL. They sandwiched three Overs in a row where the Seahawks scored game totals of 50, 44 and 55.

Similarly, New Orleans has played three home games this season so far where scores have totaled 79, 69 and 77. I think the lower total took too much gravity from Seattle’s last game and masks the high potential that Saints home game can generate.

Conventional thinking would state that New Orleans will be playing from behind which means it will take to the air where its offense has always been comfortable. Seattle has to be thinking it failed on all ends (except defensively) and step up on the offensive side in a nice return game that should provide some semblance of order. Let’s go with the Over and take it early in the week as I see this going up from here.


Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 48)

In a battle of two surprisingly slow-starting teams, Arizona takes on Carolina on the East Coast. We really need to read between the lines where both teams basically have top-tier quality but results have been disappointing so far.

I made this game closer to pick’em as I see more opportunity for the Cardinals (with the points) who can begin their season turnaround. Arizona has a quality underperforming quarterback, a quality running back and more than ample receiving corp. Considering Seattle is a tough opponent that the Cardinals played well against, that continued a nice stretch of three quality games in a row.

I don’t see any solid breakout signs from Carolina. With its only victory of the season at home against San Francisco five weeks ago, the offense has been sporadic with Cam Newton in and out of the lineup. The Panthers’ oft-reliable defense has been their demise so far, allowing two scores of over 40 points in their last three games.

Their non-existent running game makes them very predictable. Add to the fact that Arizona is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and the Cardinals offense may not have to put up too many points to steal this one in Carolina.

[StarDust Bum]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 8
October 26, 2016

Underdogs to Watch – Week 8

Back-to-back weeks of hitting at least one of these sizeable underdogs on the money line has definitely added some units to the bankroll as the Chargers were the ones that were able to come out on top SU and ATS in Week 7.

At +230 on the ML, San Diego was the only underdog that made this list last week to win outright, and after the list dwindled a bit a week ago, it's another short list of underdogs in Week 8. Thankfully, Cleveland's not on here for the first time since Week 1.

Sportsbook.ag Week 8 Underdogs that Qualify

Buffalo Bills (+7); ML (+240)
San Diego Chargers (+5); ML (+190)
Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5); ML (+180)
Chicago Bears (+6.5); ML (+220)

Once again this week we've only got a big underdog of +4 points or more in primetime and it's the Chicago Bears on MNF. Chicago hopes to welcome QB Jay Cutler back to the field this week as they host a Minnesota team coming off their first loss of the year.

Typically, teams that suffer their first outright defeat after starting the year 4-0 SU or better are in a good “play against” spot the following week, but I'm not so sure that's going to be the case with Minnesota this week. The Vikings were flat out embarrassed by how they played on both sides of the ball against Philly last week and the extra day off to prepare for this one should help.

Secondly, it's tough to know what to expect from Chicago's offense these days and Cutler's projected return only adds more confusion. Chicago just doesn't have the numerous weapons on offense to seriously threaten the Vikings defense.

If some of those offensive guys play over their heads then there is a chance, but backing Chicago on the ML this week isn't the best option. That leaves us with the Bills (+240), Chargers (+190), and Eagles (+180) to see if there will be a big underdog win outright this week.

Buffalo and San Diego are in similar spots as they'll both face a divisional rival for the second time in a few weeks after beating them the first go around. These aren't your run of the mill division rivals either as they come in the form of New England and Denver and it's tough to see either organization get swept by the Bills or Chargers respectively.

Buffalo is the team more likely to be written off in this spot as the Tom Brady Revenge Tour keeps on rolling through the league. New England is an organization that will build this game up to being more than it actually is and while covering the point spread is a different question, Brady and the Pats should get the outright win in Buffalo this week.

San Diego goes to Denver just two weeks after they beat them 21-13 in San Diego on TNF. Playing the same rival twice in a three week span is tough and although that win over Denver started this two-game winning streak the Chargers are on, there's a strong chance it ends this week. The Chargers haven't won in Denver since before the Peyton Manning era there began and although it won't be Manning under center anymore, the result should stay the same.

That leaves the Philadelphia Eagles as the defacto choice left and even then it's not particularly a good one this week. Philadelphia heads to Dallas to take on a rested, 5-1 SU Cowboys team that looks to be one of the better teams in the entire NFL. Having a rookie QB and rookie RB read their press clippings during a week off can be troublesome for Dallas, but neither Prescott or Elliott have that kind of makeup about them and should be able to perform well against the Eagles in Week 8.

Philly has come away with two of the more surprising underdog victories this year against Pittsburgh and Minnesota, but both of those were played in Philadelphia and it's been a different story on the road. Simply put, the Eagles aren't in a good spot to get it done either this week.

So on the surface it's tough to back any of these sizeable underdogs on the ML this week as all are in tough spots and could very well go 0-4 SU.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

ATS


8:30 pm 10/31/2016
(273) MINNESOTA @(274) CHICAGO
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.6 units)
BET NOW!

8:30 pm 10/31/2016
(273) MINNESOTA @(274) CHICAGO
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.6 units)
BET NOW!

4:25 pm 10/30/2016
(253) GREEN BAY @(254) ATLANTA
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games as a favorite.
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)
BET NOW!

4:25 pm 10/30/2016
(253) GREEN BAY @(254) ATLANTA
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games as a favorite.
The record is 3 Wins and 15 Losses for the last three seasons (-13.5 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 10/30/2016
(267) SAN DIEGO @(268) DENVER
Play ON SAN DIEGO against the spread in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(263) OAKLAND @(264) TAMPA BAY
Play ON OAKLAND against the spread in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(255) DETROIT @(256) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST DETROIT against the spread in Road games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 8 Wins and 25 Losses since 1992 (-19.5 units)
BET NOW!

8:25 pm 10/27/2016
(101) JACKSONVILLE @(102) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 2 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (-13.4 units)
BET NOW!

8:25 pm 10/27/2016
(101) JACKSONVILLE @(102) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 4 Wins and 23 Losses for the last three seasons (-21.3 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

Half Time


1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(255) DETROIT @(256) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST DETROIT in the first half in Road games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 8 Wins and 27 Losses since 1992 (-21.7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(257) SEATTLE @(258) NEW ORLEANS
Play AGAINST SEATTLE in the first half in All games as a road favorite of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 10 Wins and 30 Losses since 1992 (-23 units)
BET NOW!

9:30 am 10/30/2016
(251) WASHINGTON @(252) CINCINNATI
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON in the first half in All games against AFC North division opponents.
The record is 4 Wins and 19 Losses since 1992 (-16.9 units)
BET NOW!

8:25 pm 10/27/2016
(101) JACKSONVILLE @(102) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE in the first half in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 2 Wins and 12 Losses for the last three seasons (-11.2 units)
BET NOW!

8:25 pm 10/27/2016
(101) JACKSONVILLE @(102) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE in the first half in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 4 Wins and 15 Losses for the last two seasons (-12.5 units)
BET NOW!

---------------------------


NFL TRENDS

Half Time Over


1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(261) NY JETS @(262) CLEVELAND
Play OVER CLEVELAND on the first half total in All games after 2 or more consecutive losses.
The record is 11 Overs and 2 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)
BET NOW!

---------------------------------

NFL TRENDS

Half Time Under


4:05 pm 10/30/2016
(267) SAN DIEGO @(268) DENVER
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 3 Overs and 14 Unders for the last two seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 10/30/2016
(267) SAN DIEGO @(268) DENVER
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line.
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(259) NEW ENGLAND @(260) BUFFALO
Play UNDER NEW ENGLAND on the first half total in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

Money Line


4:25 pm 10/30/2016
(253) GREEN BAY @(254) ATLANTA
Play AGAINST ATLANTA using the money line in All games as a favorite.
The record is 6 Wins and 12 Losses for the last three seasons (-18 units)
BET NOW!

4:25 pm 10/30/2016
(253) GREEN BAY @(254) ATLANTA
Play AGAINST ATLANTA using the money line in All games as a favorite.
The record is 3 Wins and 8 Losses for the last two seasons (-14.4 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(265) KANSAS CITY @(266) INDIANAPOLIS
Play ON KANSAS CITY using the money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.4 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(265) KANSAS CITY @(266) INDIANAPOLIS
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using the money line in Home games off a win against a division rival.
The record is 38 Wins and 11 Losses since 1992 (+24.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(261) NY JETS @(262) CLEVELAND
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in all lined games.
The record is 3 Wins and 20 Losses for the last two seasons (-17.7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(259) NEW ENGLAND @(260) BUFFALO
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using the money line in Road games in games played on turf.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+10 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(263) OAKLAND @(264) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using the money line in Home games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 3 Wins and 15 Losses for the last three seasons (-16.65 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(259) NEW ENGLAND @(260) BUFFALO
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using the money line in All games in games played on turf.
The record is 29 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+22.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(261) NY JETS @(262) CLEVELAND
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 2 Wins and 15 Losses for the last two seasons (-14.9 units)
BET NOW!

8:25 pm 10/27/2016
(101) JACKSONVILLE @(102) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using the money line in All games in home games.
The record is 3 Wins and 17 Losses for the last three seasons (-15.9 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

Over


4:05 pm 10/30/2016
(267) SAN DIEGO @(268) DENVER
Play OVER DENVER on the total in All games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points.
The record is 37 Overs and 14 Unders since 1992 (+21.6 units)
BET NOW!

----------------------------


NFL TRENDS

Under


8:30 pm 10/31/2016
(273) MINNESOTA @(274) CHICAGO
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the total in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!

4:25 pm 10/30/2016
(253) GREEN BAY @(254) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games after 2 or more consecutive losses.
The record is 0 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+10 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL POWER LINES

NFL Power Line ratings are calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current betting line.

8:25 pm 10/27/2016
(101) JACKSONVILLE @(102) TENNESSEE
Play Line: TENNESSEE -3
BTB PowerLine: TENNESSEE -5
Edge On: TENNESSEE 2

9:30 am 10/30/2016
(251) WASHINGTON @(252) CINCINNATI
Play Line: CINCINNATI -3
BTB PowerLine: CINCINNATI -8
Edge On: CINCINNATI 5

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(257) SEATTLE @(258) NEW ORLEANS
Play Line: SEATTLE -2.5
BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE -10
Edge On: SEATTLE 7.5

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(269) ARIZONA @(270) CAROLINA
Play Line: ARIZONA 2.5
BTB PowerLine: ARIZONA -1
Edge On: ARIZONA 3.5

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(265) KANSAS CITY @(266) INDIANAPOLIS
Play Line: KANSAS CITY -2.5
BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY -7
Edge On: KANSAS CITY 4.5

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(261) NY JETS @(262) CLEVELAND
Play Line: NY JETS -3
BTB PowerLine: NY JETS -4
Edge On: NY JETS 1

1:00 pm 10/30/2016
(259) NEW ENGLAND @(260) BUFFALO
Play Line: BUFFALO 6.5
BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO -1

Edge On: BUFFALO 7.5
4:05 pm 10/30/2016
(267) SAN DIEGO @(268) DENVER
Play Line: DENVER -5.5
BTB PowerLine: DENVER -9

Edge On: DENVER 3.5
8:30 pm 10/30/2016
(271) PHILADELPHIA @(272) DALLAS
Play Line: PHILADELPHIA 4
BTB PowerLine: PHILADELPHIA +3
Edge On: PHILADELPHIA 1

8:30 pm 10/31/2016
(273) MINNESOTA @(274) CHICAGO
Play Line: MINNESOTA -5
BTB PowerLine: MINNESOTA -11
Edge On: MINNESOTA 6

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Thursday, October 27

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Game 101-102
October 27, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
127.689
Tennessee
124.519
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Thursday Night Football betting preview: Jaguars at Titans
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jacksonville's Blake Bortles tossed a career-high five touchdown passes in a 42-39 setback to Tennessee on Dec. 6.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 43.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars and host Tennessee Titans entertained loftier expectations this season, but both sputtering AFC South rivals can see a ray of optimism through the gloom and doom as they enter Thursday's contest at Nissan Stadium. Despite losing both division clashes, the host Titans are just one game removed from first-place Houston while the cellar-dwelling Jaguars are 1 1/2 games away from the penthouse.

Jacksonville's Blake Bortles tossed a career-high five touchdown passes in a 42-39 setback to Tennessee on Dec. 6, with Allen Robinson reeling in three of those scoring strikes to highlight his 10-catch, 153-yard performance. Bortles and Robinson are struggling significantly this season, however, with the former accounting for 11 turnovers (nine interceptions) and the latter underscoring his tough campaign with two catches for nine yards in Sunday's 33-16 setback versus Oakland. Marcus Mariota has eight touchdown passes in his last three games and nearly guided Tennessee to its third straight victory on Sunday before a fourth-quarter collapse resulted in a 34-26 loss to Indianapolis. The second overall pick of the 2015 draft, Mariota became the only player in NFL history to have at least 250 passing yards with three touchdowns and more than 100 rushing yards in a single game in his last encounter with the Jaguars.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened the betting week as 3.5-point home favorites for this electric Thursday night matchup and the point spread hasn't moved all week. The total hit the board at 46 and has actually come down three full points to 43 by Wednesday evening. View complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for perfect autumn football conditions in Nashville for Thursday night. Partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 60's, virtually no wind (1-2 mph breeze), and humidity levels around 70 percent.

INJURIES:

Jaguars - TE N. Sterling (Prob Thurs, foot), CB A. Colvin (Prob Thurs, toe), T K. Beachum (Prob Thurs, knee), CB P. Amukamara (Prob Thurs, knee), WR A. Hurns (Prob Thurs, neck), RB C. Grant (Ques Thurs, toe), DL J. Odrick (Ques Thurs, quadricep), TE J. Thomas (Ques Thurs, ankle), C L. Bowanko (Ques Thurs, hip), DT R. Miller (I-R, achilles), T L. Joeckel (I-R, knee), S J. Sample (I-R, shoulder), T J. Wells (I-R, thumb), DT M. Bennett (I-R, calf), DE J. Woodard (I-R, achilles).

Titans - TE D. Walker (Prob Thurs, chest), WR T. Sharpe (Ques Thurs, knee), CB C. Riggs (Ques Thurs, hamstring), TE J. Amaro (Ques Thurs, shoulder), LB K. Dodd (Ques Thurs, foot), G Q. Spain (Out Thurs, knee), S R. Johnson (Out Thurs, neck), CB P. Cox (Out Thurs, concussion), T B. Bell (Out For Season, ankle), G C. Warmack (Elig Week 11, finger), G J. Matias (I-R, knee), CB B. Okotcha (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Jacksonville's offense has been slowed by its 30th-ranked rushing attack (76.7 yards per game) and league-worst third-down conversion rate (27.6) to reside 24th in scoring (19.5 points per contest). T.J. Yeldon leads the Jaguars with only 200 yards rushing, although the second-year running back amassed 136 yards from scrimmage (79 receiving, 57 rushing) and a touchdown in his last meeting with the Titans. Tight end Julius Thomas is aiming to record his third touchdown in as many games versus Tennessee and fifth in six outings against a division representative.

ABOUT THE TITANS (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, 5-2 O/U): DeMarco Murray has been Tennessee's primary source of offense, as the 28-year-old has rushed for an NFL third-best 633 yards while his 27 receptions are tops on his own team. The Titans' ground attack could be in question as Quinton Spain (knee) is expected to miss two games, and fellow guard Brian Schwenke didn't distinguish himself after being beaten by his man that resulted in a late fumble by Mariota in the loss to the Colts. Tight end Delanie Walker, who has a team-leading 330 yards receiving and three touchdowns, has reeled in 16 receptions for 201 yards and a score in his last two meetings with Jacksonville.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC South.
* Titans are 5-18-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Titans last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Jaguars are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 59 percent of picks are on the Titans to cover as home favorites while 62 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFL knowledge and our top 7

Some notes about how NFL teams have done on the first drive of each half this season: in my mind, the first drive of each game goes to how coaches prepare for their opponent each week.

First drive of the second half goes to halftime adjustments, as much as can be done in 10-12 minutes. Through seven weeks, here is some information:

13) Dallas Cowboys, in six games, have three TDs, two FGs and a missed FG on their first drive of the game, averaging 66.7 yards/drive, by far the best in the NFL thru seven weeks.

12) Three teams have yet to score on their first drive of a game: Arizona, Jacksonville and the Giants, who have only 79 yards on 27 plays on the first drive of their seven games.

11) Saints/Chargers both have four TDs on their first drive, though Saints did that in six games and Chargers seven; New Orleans averages 54.2 yards/first drive, San Diego 47.1.

10) Most surprising that I’ve found so far: Denver has allowed four TDs and a FG on opponents’ first drive of a game- their 31 points allowed on the first drive is 2nd-worst in the NFL.

9) Less surprising is Cleveland’s defense allowing five TDs on its seven game opening drives, with foes gaining an average of 55.9 yards/drive.

8) Giants have been outscored 30-3 on each team’s first drive of each half; Jets have been outscored 35-16. For the Giants, 66 plays, 210 yards (3.2 yards/play) on the first drive of their 14 halves is very poor.

On to the NFL’s top 7 for this week:

7) Chiefs— Andy Reid is this generation’s Chuck Knox— very good coach, wins a lot of games, just not any Super Bowls. Nothing wrong with winning a lot of games.

6) Raiders— 4-0 on the road and all four games were east of Mississippi; this week is #5.

5) Seahawks— Lost 9-3 in LA, tied 6-6 at Arizona, their two games on grass. Won the other four games. Not sure how bad Wilson’s leg injuries are, but if he doesn’t start running around soon, I’ll lose faith in Seattle.

Related point; NBC’s Cris Collinsworth actually grouped Wilson with Brady and Roethlisberger as a pocket passer during Sunday night’s game. Um, no. Not even close.

4) Cowboys— Is it easier for a rookie QB to be without Dez Bryant and not have him calling for the ball all the time? What Jason Garrett has done in the first six games is tremendous- their offensive line is just super.

3) Broncos— Little queasy about having them at #3, but they’re the defending champs and they’re 5-2. I wouldn’t bet your money on them on win the Super Bowl this year.

2) Vikings— Sam Bradford began his NFL career with the Rams, so pardon me if I’m skeptical he can lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl. He just doesn’t stay healthy.

1) Patriots— They head into heir bye week with an actual revenge game this week; Bills beat them in Foxboro in Week 4, the last week of Brady’s suspension and also in all probability, the last NFL action Jacoby Brissett will ever see.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Sunday, October 30

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Game 271-272
October 30, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
137.848
Dallas
139.800
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 4 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+4 1/2); Over

Arizona @ Carolina

Game 269-270
October 30, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
130.230
Carolina
134.795
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 4 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-2 1/2); Under

San Diego @ Denver

Game 267-268
October 30, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
135.920
Denver
138.165
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+5 1/2); Under

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

Game 265-266
October 30, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
130.846
Indianapolis
137.414
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 6 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
50
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+3); Under

Oakland @ Tampa Bay

Game 263-264
October 30, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
135.184
Tampa Bay
127.641
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 7 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+1 1/2); Under

NY Jets @ Cleveland

Game 261-262
October 30, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
122.214
Cleveland
128.951
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 6 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 3 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+3 1/2); Over

New England @ Buffalo

Game 259-260
October 30, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
144.751
Buffalo
136.397
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6); Over

Seattle @ New Orleans

Game 257-258
October 30, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
132.468
New Orleans
136.682
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3); Over

Detroit @ Houston

Game 255-256
October 30, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
126.726
Houston
135.329
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-2 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Game 253-254
October 30, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
138.196
Atlanta
133.951
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 4
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
53
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3); Under

Washington @ Cincinnati

Game 251-252
October 30, 2016 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
126.978
Cincinnati
135.187
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 8
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-2 1/2); Over


Monday, October 31

Minnesota @ Chicago

Game 273-274
October 31, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
137.070
Chicago
125.939
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 11
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Sunday's games

Redskins (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)— Jay Gruden was a Bengal assistant from 2011-13, so he knows Cincy QB Dalton well. Washington had 3-game win streak snapped in Detroit LW by TD with 0:16 left. Skins are 2-1 on road, with three games decided by total of 11 points- they’re 9-10 as road dogs under Gruden, 2-1 this year. Washington has only one takeaway (-4) in last three games. Bengals ran for 271 yards in rout of hapless Browns, ending 1-4 skid; Cincy is 29-17-2 in last 48 games where spread was 3 or less points, but 0-3 this year- they won last three games vs Redskins, all by 7 points; Washington is 1-3 in Queen City, with last visit in ’08, lone win in ’91. Five of Washington’s last six games were decided by 7 or less points. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-3 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 6-3.

Packers (4-2) @ Falcons (4-3)— First road game in six weeks for Packers, who had three extra prep days after beating Bears last Thursday, but are 1-8 vs spread in last nine games as a road underdog. Pack split its first two road games, beating Jags 27-23, losing by 3 at Minnesota. Green Bay is 5-10 in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less points- they won last four games vs Atlanta, winning last two 22-21/43-37. Pack won three of last four visits here, but last trip here was in 2011. Falcons lost 26-24/33-30 last two weeks, after a 4-1 start; they’re 1-2 at home this year- road team covered six of their seven games. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-3 vs spread; NFC South favorites are 2-5. Six of seven Atlanta games went over total; last three Packer games stayed under.

Lions (4-3) @ Texans (4-3)— Detroit won its last three games, all at home; they’re 1-2 on road with only win 39-35 at Indy after they blew 21-3 lead. Lions are 9-12 in last 21 games as road dogs, 2-0 this year- they’re 10-9-1 under Caldwell in games with spread of 3 or less points. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Detroit games, all of which were decided by 7 or less points. Home teams are 6-0-1 vs spread in Texans’ games this year; Houston is 3-0-1 as a home favorite, winning home games by 9-7-7-3 points. In Denver loss, Osweiler had 2nd-least passing yards of any QB in NFL history with 40+ attempts. Houston is 2-1 vs Detroit, winning 28-21 in only one played here, in ’08. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-3 vs spread; AFC South favorites are 4-5.

Seahawks (4-1-1) @ Saints (2-4)— Seattle lost 9-3 in LA, tied 6-6 in Arizona; they scored 25.5 pts/game in four wins (4-0 on artificial turf, too). Seahawks are 11-8 in last 19 game as a road favorite, 1-1 this year. Saints allow average of 32.5 pts/game; average total in their three home games (1-2) is 75.0. Since 2013, New Orleans is 3-0 as a home dog; they’re 8-11-2 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points. Five of NO’s six games were decided by 6 or less points. Home side won last four Seahawk-Saint games with Seattle winning last three, two of which were playoff games. Seattle is 2-3 here, with last visit six years ago. NFC West teams are 5-10 vs spread outside the division; NFC South underdogs are 6-2. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.

Patriots (6-1) @ Bills (4-3)— First rematch of season finds Pats in revenge mode after 16-0 home loss to Buffalo in Week 4, last week of Brady’s suspension. New England is 28-4 in last 32 series games, winning last four in Buffalo, scoring 38 pts/game. Patriots are 3-0 since Brady returned, scoring 12 TDs on 31 drives (31.7 pts/game)- they’re 2-0 as road favorites this year, after being 4-12 from 2013-15. New England is 6-1 vs spread in last seven pre-bye games. Buffalo had 4-game win streak snapped in Miami; Dolphins ran ball for 256 yards. Bills are 10-2 vs spread in last 12 games as a home underdog (3-1 with Ryan as coach), 1-0 this year. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in divisional games. Five of last six Buffalo games went over the total.

Jets (2-5) @ Browns (0-7)— Fitzpatrick came off bench LW to lead win over Ravens; Jets are 1-3 on road this year, allowing 38 ppg- they’re 12-8-1 in last 21 games as a road favorite. Cleveland is first team since ’76 Bucs (0-16) to use six QBs in first seven games; they signed D-III phenom Callahan off waivers from Saints this week. Browns played five of first seven games on road; they’re 14-16-1 in last 31 games as a home dog, 1-1 this year. Jets won last three series games by 6-11-21 points; they split last two visits here, with most recent visit 10 years ago. Gang Green whacked Browns 31-10 in Swamp LY, in game where QB McCown got KO’d early and Browns turned ball over five times (-4). AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 2-7. Last three Jet games stayed under total.

Raiders (5-2) @ Buccaneers (3-3)— Oakland spent week in Bradenton after win in Jacksonville; this is their fifth game already (out of 8) east of Mississippi. Raiders are 4-0 on road this year, but 1-2 as a road favorite the last 11 years- Raiders are 3-1 this season in games with spread of 3 or less points. Bucs gave up 32 pts/game in losing its two home games; they’re 7-20-1 in last 28 games as a home dog, 4-8 in last 12 games (2-0 this year) with spread of 3 or less. Tampa Bay is +6 in turnovers last two weeks, after being -9 in first four games. Oakland is 6-3 in series but lost to Bucs in Super Bowl 14 years ago- they split two meetings here, with last one in ’08. Average total in last four series games, 62.0. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 7-3 vs spread; NFC South home teams are 1-5.

Chiefs (4-2) @ Colts (3-4)— Indy is 13-2 in last 15 series games, with last one a 44-43 win over KC in a playoff game three years ago. Chiefs lost six of last seven visits to Indy. Colts are 2-1 at home, with pair of come-from-behind wins; they’re 8-0 as home dogs under Pagano, 17-13-2 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Chiefs are 9-2 as road favorites under Reid, 1-0 this year; they’re +9 in turnovers the last four games. KC is 14-7 under Reid in games with spread of 3 or less. AFC West teams are 11-7 vs spread outside their division; AFC South teams are 8-10. Over is 6-1 in Indy games; four of last five Chief games stayed under. In Colt games this year, the average second half total has been 31.6. KC averaged 9.3/8.9 yds/pass attempt in two games since their bye.

Chargers (3-4) @ Broncos (-6)— Second rematch of young season; Broncos lost 21-13 in San Diego two weeks ago, in Thursday game that coach Kubiak (migraines) missed. Denver is 9-2 in last 11 series games; Chargers lost last three visits here, by 7-14-7 points. Bolts rallied back from down 27-10 to win LW in Atlanta; San Diego is 5-2 vs spread this year, 3-1 on road- they are 16-7-1 as road dogs under McCoy. All four of their losses this year were by 4 or less points, or in OT. Denver is 3-1 at home this year, with wins by 1-14-18 points; short week for them after Monday night’s win. Broncos are 19-12-1 in last 32 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year. NFL-wide, home favorites are 6-12-1 vs spread in divisional games this year.

Cardinals (3-3-1) @ Panthers (1-5)— Home side won last five Arizona-Carolina games; Redbirds lost last three visits here, by 7-11-34 points, including a 49-15 playoff loss. Arizona missed 28-yard FG in OT LW, had to settle for 6-6 home tie with Seattle. Cardinals are 15-4-1 under Arians in games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 18-8 vs spread on road in Arians era. Carolina lost four of last five post-bye games; they’re 21-17 under Rivera in games with spread of 3 or less (0-3 this year). Panthers lost last four games, despite being favored in all four; they’re 17-8-2 vs spread in last 27 home games, 1-2 this year. Cardinals are 6-3 vs spread in last nine pre-bye games. NFC West teams are 5-10 vs spread outside the division; NFC South home teams are 5-6.

Eagles (4-2) @ Cowboys (5-1)— Dallas won/covered its last five games; did bye sap their momentum, like it did with Eagles/Vikings? Cowboys’ last four wins are all by 7+ points; they outscored last four foes 75-23 in first half. Dallas is 17-35 in last 52 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Eagles ran kick back for TDs in each of last two games, while offense scored only one TD in those games; Iggles survived sloppy games with Minnesota- both teams turned ball over four times. Eagles are 3-0 vs spread as an underdog this season Two rookie QB’s in spotlight on Sunday Night Football; home side lost last six series games. Philly won last three visits here, by 2-23-6ot points. Average total in last five series games, 48.8. NFL-wide, home favorites are 6-12-1 vs spread in divisional games this year.


Monday's game

Vikings (5-1) @ Bears (1-6)— Trap game for Minnesota coming off first loss of year; they’re 2-1 on road, with wins at Tennessee (25-16), Carolina (22-10). Vikings had only 7 points in four trips to red zone in Philly, a red flag; they’re 3-2 as road favorites under Zimmer, 1-1 this year. Chicago lost last three games by 6-1-16 points, losing last home game 17-16 to Jaguars when they led 13-0 in 4th quarter. Bears are 3-10 in last 13 games as a home underdog, 1-0 this season. Home side won seven of last eight Viking-Bear games, with Minnesota 5-2 in last seven. Vikings’ 23-20 win here LY was their first win in last eight visits to Windy City. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in divisional games. Under is 5-1 in Viking games, 4-2-1 in Chicago games.