The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

SD at DEN

DEN -3.5

O 43.0

GB at ATL 04:25 PM

ATL -3.0 *****

O 51.0

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PHI at DAL 08:30 PM

DAL -5.0 *****

U 44.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Capsules
October 31, 2016

ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) Dak Prescott threw a 5-yard touchdown pass to Jason Witten in overtime, giving the Dallas Cowboys their sixth straight win with a 29-23 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night.

Prescott rallied the Cowboys with a late tying touchdown pass to Dez Bryant and won the rookie quarterback duel with Carson Wentz. Dallas (6-1) took a two-game division lead after rallying from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

The 23-year-old Prescott recovered from a shaky start, finishing 19 of 39 for 287 yards with two scores and an end zone interception that cost the Cowboys points late in the first half.

Wentz had the Eagles (4-3) in position for a win with another efficient performance. But he couldn't move Philadelphia late in regulation with the game tied. The Eagles never got the ball in overtime after Prescott led the 75-yard scoring drive.

RAIDERS 30, BUCCANEERS 24, OT

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Derek Carr threw a 41-yard touchdown pass to Seth Roberts with 1:45 remaining in overtime, capping a record-breaking day for Oakland.

Carr threw for a franchise-record 513 yards, completing 40 of 59 passes without an interception, and the Raiders overcame an NFL-record 23 penalties for 200 yards.

Carr also threw touchdowns to offensive tackle and ex-Buc Donald Penn, Amari Cooper and Mychal Rivera as the Raiders (6-2) improved to 5-0 on the road.

Jameis Winston threw for 180 yards and two touchdowns for the Bucs (3-4), who took a 24-17 lead on a 1-yard run by Jacquizz Rodgers and 2-point conversion.

Carr threw his TD pass to Rivera to tie it with 1:38 remaining, and Sebastian Janikowski missed a 50-yard field goal as time expired to send it into overtime.

Janikowski misfired again from 52 yards on Oakland's first possession of the extra period.

REDSKINS 27, BENGALS 27

LONDON (AP) - Washington and Cincinnati played to the second NFL tie game in seven days, the first time there have been two draws in a season since 1997.

The sold-out crowd of 84,000 at Wembley Stadium left deflated and even puzzled as the regulation-time shootout between Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton turned into an overtime comedy of errors.

Washington (4-3-1) appeared to have the game won with 2:13 left in overtime, but Dustin Hopkins hooked his 34-yard field goal attempt wide left.

The Redskins got the ball back with 1:11 remaining when Dalton fumbled at the Bengals 47 on a quarterback sneak. Cousins couldn't connect downfield and tossed his final desperate pass tamely into the sideline to preserve the draw. Cincinnati is 3-4-1.

The unlikely result came one week after the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals tied 6-6.

FALCONS 33, PACKERS 32

ATLANTA (AP) - Matt Ryan threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Mohamed Sanu with 31 seconds remaining, rallying the Falcons.

The Falcons (5-3) snapped a two-game losing streak, driving 75 yards for the winning score after Aaron Rodgers put the Packers (4-3) ahead with his fourth TD pass of the game.

With Julio Jones shut down in the second half, Ryan turned to Sanu to bail out Atlanta. He caught five passes for 50 yards on the final possession, the last a touchdown pass in the back of the end zone after he lined up in the slot and got matched against linebacker Jake Ryan.

Sanu finished with nine catches for 84 yards, both season highs in his first season with the Falcons. Ryan was 28 of 35 for 288 yards and three touchdowns.

Rodgers threw for 246 yards, teaming up with a bunch of unknown receivers as the banged-up Packers played without six starters. Linebacker Clay Matthews and receiver Randall Cobb were among those who couldn't go.

BRONCOS 27, CHARGERS 19

DENVER (AP) - The Denver Broncos took turns picking off and pummeling Philip Rivers.

But defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was taken to a hospital after getting knocked down during Brady Roby's 51-yard touchdown return in the second quarter, tempering their enthusiasm.

San Diego running back Melvin Gordon was blocked into the 69-year-old assistant, who was strapped to a backboard and carted off the field. The Broncos said Phillips was alert and had movement in his arms and legs when he arrived at the hospital via ambulance.

With linebackers coach Reggie Herring taking over Denver's defensive calls for Phillips, the Broncos (6-2) had a goal-line stand in the closing minutes and picked off Rivers twice more in the second half. They only turned one of those takeaways into points, however, and that allowed the hard-luck Chargers (3-5) to stay in it until the end, forcing Denver to make two stands in the closing minutes.

SAINTS 25, SEAHAWKS 20

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Drew Brees passed for 265 yards and a touchdown and scored on a quarterback keeper.

The victory wasn't assured until New Orleans' much-maligned defense, ranked 29th, came up with a stop on Seattle's final drive. Russell Wilson took the Seahawks (4-2-1) to the New Orleans 10, where on one final play he lofted a pass toward the corner of the end zone. Jermaine Kearse caught the ball, but landed out of bounds.

Wilson finished with 253 yards passing and was intercepted once by linebacker Nathan Stupar - a play that set up the Saints' first TD on Brees' 1-yard dive over a pile of players. Brees' lone touchdown pass went to Brandin Cooks on a 2-yard slant, which gave the Saints the lead for good early in the fourth quarter.

Wil Lutz kicked field goals of 22, 53, 21 and 41 yards for the Saints (3-4).

PATRIOTS 41, BILLS 25

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) - Patriots quarterback Tom Brady asserted his on-field ownership of the Bills again, matching an NFL record in beating them for the 26th time.

Brady went 22 of 33 for 315 yards and threw four touchdowns. He improved to 26-3 against Buffalo , and matched a record set by Brett Favre, who went 26-9 against Detroit.

The Patriots (7-1) have won four straight since Brady returned after opening the season serving the NFL's four-game ''Deflategate'' suspension. His absence included New England's only blemish, a 16-0 home loss to Buffalo (4-4) on Oct. 2, the first time the Patriots were shut out at home since 1993.

After a Bills field goal, Brady threw touchdowns passes on his first two drives. They included a 53-yarder to former Bills receiver Chris Hogan.

The Patriots then broke the game open by scoring 27 points over five consecutive possessions. The surge began with Brady's 53-yard pass to Rob Gronkowski with 4:18 left in the second quarter, and ended when Brady took a seat and was replaced by backup Jimmy Garoppolo with 4:29 left.

PANTHERS 30, CARDINALS 20

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Jonathan Stewart ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns, Thomas Davis returned a fumble 46 yards for a score and the Panthers.

In a game reminiscent of last season's NFC championship, a 49-15 Carolina victory, the Panthers jumped to a 24-0 lead and kept the pressure on Carson Palmer all day.

Carolina, which has struggled to generate a pass rush all season, sacked Palmer eight times - three of those by Star Lotulelei - and forced two turnovers. The Panthers also limited running back David Johnson to 24 yards rushing.

Forced into a one-dimensional game, Palmer finished 35 of 46 for 363 yards with three touchdowns, two to J.J. Nelson.

Carolina (2-5) needed a boost to save a sinking season and got one from Davis, its longest-tenured player and emotional leader, on the opening series. Lotulelei sacked Palmer, who attempted to push the ball forward to avoid the sack while in the grasp of the 315-pound defensive tackle. Davis picked up the loose ball and delivered a stiff arm on the way to the first touchdown of his 12-year NFL career.

Davis later left with a left knee injury.

Arizona is 3-4-1.

CHIEFS 30, COLTS 14

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Nick Foles threw two touchdown passes in relief of the injured Alex Smith.

It was a rough game for the Chiefs (5-2), who lost Smith twice after hits to the head and finished with Charcandrick West as their only healthy running back.

Smith was checked for a concussion in the first half and cleared to return. He left again early in the third quarter after Clayton Geathers shoved Smith's head to the turf as the quarterback tried to slide underneath the tackle.

Smith was then diagnosed with a concussion and did not return.

Foles' 14-yard TD pass to Travis Kelce early in the second quarter made it 10-0. Smith made it 17-7 at halftime with a 13-yard TD pass to Jeremy Maclin, and after Smith's second departure, Foles hooked up with Tyreek Hill on a 34-yard scoring pass for a 24-7 lead.

Andrew Luck finished 19 of 35 with 210 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and one fumble lost for the Colts (3-5).

TEXANS 20, LIONS 13

HOUSTON (AP) - Brock Osweiler bounced back from an ugly performance by throwing for 186 yards and a touchdown to help the Texans remain perfect at home. Osweiler has struggled in his first season in Houston, but has been better at home where he's thrown eight of his nine touchdown passes.

The Texans (5-3) have lost all of their road games, including a 27-9 loss to Denver on Monday, but they've had no such trouble in Houston.

Matthew Stafford threw for 240 yards and a touchdown for Detroit (4-4), which had a three-game winning streak snapped as the Lions were unable to continue a string of late-game comebacks.

JETS 31, BROWNS 28

CLEVELAND (AP) - Matt Forte ran for 82 yards and a pair of second-half touchdowns, helping the Jets rally to a second straight victory.

Ryan Fitzpatrick shook off an ugly first half to throw for 222 yards and a touchdown while leading the Jets (3-5) on three long scoring drives after spotting the Browns (0-8) a 13-point lead.

Josh McCown passed for 341 yards with two touchdowns to Andrew Hawkins and two interceptions in his return to the lineup from a broken collarbone. Terrelle Pryor caught six passes for 101 yards, but couldn't keep Cleveland from its worst start since the 1975 team dropped its first nine games.

The Browns have lost 11 straight overall dating to Week 14 of last season and are 3-26 over their last 29. Cleveland blew a halftime advantage for the third time during the streak.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 8
October 31, 2016

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Oct. 31

Minnesota at Chicago, 8:30 p.m. EDT. Sam Bradford and the Vikings (5-1) are coming off their first loss, a 21-10 defeat against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is set to return for the Bears (1-6), who are off to their worst start since the 2000 team dropped seven of its first eight.

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STARS

Passing

- Derek Carr, Raiders, threw for a franchise-record 513 yards - completing 40 of 59 passes without an interception - including a 41-yard touchdown pass to Seth Roberts with 1:45 remaining in overtime, leading Oakland past Tampa Bay 30-24.

- Tom Brady, Patriots, went 22 of 33 for 315 yards and threw four touchdowns in leading New England to a 41-25 win over Buffalo.

- Drew Brees, Saints, passed for 265 yards and a touchdown, and scored on a quarterback keeper in New Orleans' 25-20 win over Seattle.

- Carson Palmer, Cardinals, was 35 of 46 for 363 yards with three touchdowns, including two to J.J. Nelson, in a losing cause as Arizona fell to Carolina 30-20.

- Matt Ryan, Falcons, tossed three touchdown passes and finished 28 of 35 for 288 yards in Atlanta's 33-32 win over Green Bay.

- Kirk Cousins, Redskins, threw for 458 yards and two TDs on 38-of-56 passing with an INT in Washington's 27-27 tie with Cincinnati in London.

- Dak Prescott, Cowboys, threw for 287 yards and two scores, including a winning 5-yarder to Jason Witten in overtime, to lead Dallas past Philadelphia 29-23.

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Rushing

- Melvin Gordon, Chargers, rushed for 111 yards on 23 carries in San Diego's 27-19 loss at Denver.

- Tim Hightower, Saints, ran for 102 yards on 26 carries as New Orleans' first 100-yard rusher this season after replacing the benched Mark Ingram in a 25-20 win over Seattle.

- Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns in Carolina's 30-20 victory over Arizona.

- Matt Forte, Jets, rushed for 82 yards and two second-half TDs in New York's 31-28 win at Cleveland.

- Rob Kelley, Redskins, carried 21 times for 87 yards and his first rushing touchdown, a juking 4-yard carry up the gut on Washington's opening drive in a 27-27 tie with Cincinnati.

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Receiving

- Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, Raiders. Cooper had 12 catches for 173 yards and a TD in Oakland's 30-24 overtime win at Tampa Bay, while Crabtree caught eight passes for 108 yards.

- Dez Bryant, Cowboys, caught four passes for 113 yards, including a game-tying 22-yard touchdown, in his return after missing three games with a hairline fracture of a bone in his right knee to help Dallas to a 29-23 overtime victory over Philadelphia.

- A.J. Green, Bengals, caught nine passes for 121 yards in Cincinnati's 27-27 tie with Washington.

- Rob Gronkowski, Patriots, had five catches for 109 yards and a TD, the 69th of his career to break a franchise record previously held by Stanley Morgan, in New England's 41-25 win over Buffalo.

- Jamison Crowder, Redskins, caught nine passes for 107 yards and a score in Washington's 27-27 tie with Cincinnati.

- Tyler Eifert, Bengals, had seven receptions for 102 yards and a TD as Cincinnati and Washington played to a 27-27 tie.

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Special Teams

- Wil Lutz, Saints, kicked field goals of 22, 53, 21 and 41 yards in New Orleans' 25-20 win over Seattle.

- Graham Gano, Panthers, had field goals of 43, 52 and 21 yards in Carolina's 30-20 win over Arizona.

- Shaq Barrett, Broncos, blocked an extra-point attempt by Josh Lambo in Denver's 27-19 win over San Diego.

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Defense

- Dee Ford, Chiefs, had 3 1/2 sacks in Kansas City's 30-14 win at Indianapolis.

- Star Lotulelei, Panthers, had three of Carolina's eight sacks of Carson Palmer in a 30-20 victory over Arizona.

- Bradley Roby, Broncos, scored on a 49-yard interception return in Denver's 27-19 win over San Diego.

- Earl Thomas, Seahawks, returned a fumble forced by Cliff Avril 34 yards for a touchdown in Seattle's 25-20 loss at New Orleans.

- Thomas Davis, Panthers, returned a fumble 46 yards for a score - the first of his 12-year career - to help Carolina top Arizona 30-20.

- Casey Hayward, Chargers, had a 24-yard interception return for a score in San Diego's 27-19 loss at Denver.

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STREAKS & STATS

New York outgained the Browns 287-133 in the second half and the Jets put together the biggest second-half road comeback in team history, winning 31-28 after trailing 20-7 at halftime in Cleveland. ... Tom Brady has 20 regular-season games with four touchdowns throws or more, and six have been against Buffalo - including four TDs in a 41-25 victory Sunday. ... Drew Brees has a TD pass in 58 consecutive home games, extending his NFL-record streak with one in a 25-20 win over Seattle. ... Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was Green Bay's leading rusher in a 33-32 loss at Atlanta with a career-high 60 yards on six carries. He broke his previous best of 57 yards in 2012, and posted the highest rushing total by a Packers quarterback since Don Majkowski's 88-yard effort in 1990. ... Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott ran for 96 yards on 22 carries in a 29-23 overtime win over Philadelphia, ending his NFL rookie record of four straight games with at least 130 yards rushing.

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MILESTONES

Oakland's Derek Carr became the third player in NFL history with 500 or more yards passing, four or more TD throws and no interceptions in a game, joining Y.A. Tittle (1962) and Ben Roethlisberger (2014). Carr was 40 of 59 for a franchise-record 513 yards - surpassing Cotton Davidson's 427 in 1964 - with four TDs in the Raiders' 30-24 overtime win at Tampa Bay. ... Rob Gronkowski's 53-yard touchdown catch in New England's 41-25 win at Buffalo was the 69th of his career and 68th receiving, breaking the previous marks held by Stanley Morgan. ... With two TD runs in New York's 31-28 win at Cleveland, the Jets' Matt Forte joined Marcus Allen, Marshall Faulk and Herschel Walker as the only players with at least 50 rushing TDs (51), 500 receptions (507) and 20 TD catches (20). ... With 458 yards passing in Washington's 27-27 tie with Cincinnati, Kirk Cousins tied Hall of Famer Sonny Jurgensen for the most games with 300 yards or more passing in franchise history with 15. ... Dallas' Jason Witten broke Ed ''Too Tall'' Jones' franchise record with his 204th start in the Cowboys' 29-23 overtime victory over Philadelphia.

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ROUGH START

Cleveland's 31-28 loss to the New York Jets dropped the Browns to 0-8, their worst start since the 1975 team dropped its first nine games en route to going 3-11. The Browns have lost 11 straight overall dating to Week 14 of last season and are 3-26 over their last 29. Three of the losses this season have come with the Browns ahead at the break.

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BRADY CORRALS BILLS

Tom Brady asserted his on-field ownership of the Buffalo Bills again Sunday, matching an NFL record in beating them for the 26th time. Brady went 22 of 33 for 315 yards and threw four touchdowns in leading New England to a 41-25 win. He improved to 26-3 against Buffalo , matching a record set by Brett Favre, who went 26-9 against Detroit.

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LOTS OF LAUNDRY

Oakland overcame an NFL-record 23 penalties for 200 yards to remain unbeaten on the road with a 30-24 overtime win at Tampa Bay. The Raiders hurt themselves repeatedly with penalties, including a delay of game on first-and-goal and an offensive pass interference call against WR Michael Crabtree that nullified a touchdown. They wound up settling for Sebastian Janikowski's 31-yard field goal that trimmed a second-quarter deficit to 10-3. Oakland was penalized four times, twice on third-and-1 for lining up with 12 men on defense, during the fourth-quarter drive Jameis Winston used to put Tampa Bay up 24-17.

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STEPPING IN

Nick Foles threw two touchdown passes in relief of the injured Alex Smith to help the Kansas City Chiefs hold off Indianapolis 30-14 on Sunday. Smith was checked for a concussion in the first half and cleared to return, which he did in the second quarter. He left again early in the third quarter after Clayton Geathers shoved Smith's head to the turf as the quarterback tried to slide underneath the tackle. Smith was then diagnosed with a concussion and did not return. Foles was 16 of 22 for 223 yards with no interceptions.

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ALL TIED UP

The Washington Redskins and Cincinnati Bengals played to a 27-27 draw Sunday in London as the NFL got its second tie game in a season for the first time since 1997. Washington (4-3-1) appeared to have the game won with 2:13 left in overtime, but Dustin Hopkins hooked his 34-yard field goal attempt wide left. Seattle and Arizona tied 6-6 last Sunday. Oddly, the last time the NFL had two ties in a season also happened in back-to-back weeks. In Weeks 12 and 13 of the 1997 season, Baltimore and Philadelphia tied 10-10, followed seven days later by Washington and the New York Giants' 7-7 draw.

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BIG-MAN TD

Oakland offensive lineman Donald Penn, who was with Tampa Bay for eight years before being released after the 2013 season, caught a 1-yard TD pass that made it 10-10 early in the third quarter of the Raiders' 30-24 overtime win at Tampa Bay. The 315-pound tackle crossed his arms and struck a pose for the announced crowd of 61,058. ''I had to let them know they made a big mistake in cutting me,'' Penn said. ''I had to let them know I'm back.''

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SLOPPY

Washington and Cincinnati's 27-27 tie in London was marred by penalties, particularly by the Redskins. Washington was flagged 15 times for 106 yards, leading to eight Bengals first downs and damaging Washington's overtime drives into Bengals turf. Cincinnati had seven penalties for 85 yards.

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SIDELINED

Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was carted off the field and taken to the hospital for observation Sunday after being upended by a San Diego player who was blocked into the Denver sideline. The team said the 69-year-old coach had movement in all his extremities. Chargers running back Melvin Gordon was blocked into Phillips while trying to catch Bradley Roby during an interception return. ... Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith was twice forced out of the game by hits to the head, leaving for good early in the third quarter with a concussion. Running back Spencer Ware was also concussed during the 30-14 victory over the Colts on Sunday. Left guard Parker Ehinger also left the game in the third quarter with a sprained right knee. ... The Colts didn't go unscathed. Pro Bowl cornerback Vontae Davis and right tackle Joe Reitz both left the game with concussions and did not return. ... In Buffalo, NFL sack leader Lorenzo Alexander hurt his hamstring during a punt return early in the second quarter and was ruled out for the remainder of the loss to New England. ... The NFC championship game rematch won by Carolina over Arizona included the departure of two stars. Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu left in the first half with a shoulder injury, and Panthers center Ryan Kalil also hurt his shoulder.

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SPEAKING

''Enough is enough. I don't think there's a person that can go through what I go through and keep their head, you know what I'm saying? Hits to the head, that's one thing, but when you're not protected in the pocket, that's another thing. It became the story of my life ever since I came in (to the league). It's always, `Oh, we missed that, I'm sorry.' That's bull c---.'' - Carolina quarterback Cam Newton, criticizing NFL officials for their lack of calls and his perception that he is treated differently from other QBs, after the Panthers' 30-20 win over Arizona.

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''It's weird. On one hand, you're mad, because there's a couple plays that if we make, we can win. But at the same time, we didn't lose. It's bittersweet, you know? I'm glad we didn't take the `L,' but I'm upset we didn't win.'' - Bengals defensive end Michael Johnson after Cincinnati and Washington tied 27-27 in London on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s six-pack

Here are the six most popular picks in Week 8 of the Westgate Super Contest in Las Vegas:

1– Patriots (742) -6.5- W
2– Chargers (631) +5.5- L
3– Raiders (627) +1.5- W
4– Falcons (463) -3- L
5– Saints (460) +2.5- W
6– Eagles (434) +4.5- L– Really bad beat

Season record: 17-30-1

A Bonus List of 13: Because it is your lucky day……


Raiders 30, Buccaneers 24 OT— Oakland is 5-0 on road for first time since 1977; all five of their wins are east of Mississippi- they outgained Tampa Bay 626-270 in a game that went OT, but Raiders set an NFL record with 23 penalties for 200 yards. Jameis Winston has regressed; he was not an accurate passer in this game.

Redskins 27, Bengals 27 OT— Second tie in two weeks; Washington was awful in red zone (4 trips, 10 points), missed a 34-yard walk-off FG in OT. Cousins threw for 458 yards, but Redskins had 106 penalty yards in game where teams combined to convert 16 of 32 on third down. Cincy had 35 first downs, Washington 30.

Titans 36, Jaguars 22— I’m not sure how Jax coach Bradley still has a job after this debacle on Thursday, but he does. Jaguars fired the OC instead. When the sideline reporter asks you at halftime, “Do you think your team has quit on you?” it is a pretty good indication you should lose your job, but Bradley is still employed. What a country.

Texans 20, Lions 13— Sometimes life is simple; Houston is 5-0 at home, 0-3 on the road. Texans had a 17-yard edge in field position in this game- teams like that very seldom lose. In a domed stadium, neither team gained 300 yards, which is odd. All eight tDetroit games have been decided by 7 or less points.

Saints 25, Seahawks 20— Seattle’s offense is banged-up; when you score only one offensive TD against the Saints, thats a huge red flag. New Orleans won three of last four games, is 5-1 vs spread in last six. Russell Wilson ran ball three times for 11 yards; until those numbers get better, Seattle is off-limits for me. Wilson’s mobility makes him great.

Patriots 41, Bills 25— Brady’s four games this year: W33-13, W35-17, W27-16, W41-25. Yards per pass in those games: 9.6, 9.4, 8.5, 7.5.

There were 129 offensive plays in this game and 22 accepted penalties for 200 yards, In the TCU-Texas Tech game Saturday, there were 175 offensive plays, with 5 accepted penalties for 35 yards. NFL is terribly over-officiated; no one pays to watch men in striped shirts throw flags.

Jets 31, Browns 28— Cleveland led 20-7 at the half, but they’ve now been outscored 131-51 in second half of games. Browns hired a “genius” from Harvard to run their front office, same guy who was Billy Beane’s right-hand guy for a while with the Oakland A’s (Jonah Hill’s character in Moneyball). Browns are 0-8; wonder what Hue Jackson thinks of his boss, the genius, the guy who gets him players?

Chiefs 30, Colts 14— Nick Foles came on in relief of a banged-up Alex Smith, was 16-22/223 in his first significant action as a Chief. As a Ram fan, I’m happy for Foles, who got a raw deal from the Rams- when protected, he is pretty good. KC was +2 in turnovers in this game; since Week 2, NFL teams that are +2 or better in turnovers are 36-3.

Panthers 30, Cardinals 20— Eight sacks for Carolina in this game; have to be worried for the Arizona offense- they outgained Seattle 443-257 last week, but tied 6-6. Cardinals ran ball only 10 times for 24 yards- no balance. This game was 24-7 at the half. NFC West teams are 5-11 vs spread in non-divisional games this season.

Falcons 33, Packers 32— Dan Quinn has coached 24 games for Atlanta; underdogs are 20-3 vs spread in those games (one game at Tampa LY was pick ‘em). Over is 7-1 in Falcon games this year, because a) their defense sucks and b) they’ve got a good passing game and they play home games in a dome. For three of four Packers who caught a TD pass in this game, it was their first career TD catch.

Broncos 27, Chargers 19— This has been a weird week; in first 10 games of the week other than this one, there were a total of 15 turnovers in 10 games- not many. In this game, both teams turned ball over three times, with each team scoring on a pick-6. Denver DC Wade Phillips (age 69) was taken to hospital after a sideline collision in second quarter- looked like his head hit the ground after the collision. Obviously, we hope he is feeling better.

Cowboys 29, Eagles 23 OT– Second year in row these divisional rivals played OT in Dallas; this time Cowboys won in battle of rookie QB’s. One thing that stands out from stats; Dallas had six plays of 20+ yards, Eagles had none. Philly has now lost three of last four games after a 3-0 start, with five offensive TDs in last four games.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Vikings at Bears
October 30, 2016

The opposite ends of the NFC North spectrum meet up in Chicago on Halloween night as the Vikings try to rebound from its first loss of the season when they face the Bears. Minnesota won its first five games before getting tripped up at Philadelphia last week, while Chicago is just trying to be competitive following a dreadful 1-6 start.

LAST WEEK

The Vikings were rolling along with a perfect 5-0 record heading into Philadelphia, but Sam Bradford’s return to the City of Brotherly Love was anything but friendly. Bradford and the Vikings fell to the Eagles, 21-10 as 2 ½-point favorites as Philadelphia held to Minnesota to its lowest point total of the season. The Eagles intercepted Bradford once in the end zone, while the Vikings could only muster 282 yards of offense. Bradford outgained rookie counterpart Carson Wentz, 224-138, but Minnesota’s only touchdown came in the final minute on a Cordarrelle Patterson catch from Bradford in garbage time.

The quarterback carousel for Chicago landed on former USC standout Matt Barkley after Brian Hoyer left the game in the first half with a broken left arm in a 26-10 setback at Green Bay. The Bears actually led the Packers, 10-6 thirty seconds into the third quarter on a fumble recovery in the end zone, but were outscored, 20-0 the rest of the way. Aaron Rodgers torched the Chicago defense for three touchdown passes in the second half, while Barkley was intercepted twice and racked up only 81 yards through the air. Chicago’s offense continues to struggle, scoring 17 points or less in six of seven contests this season.

JAY FOR PLAY

The Bears will turn the ball back over to veteran Jay Cutler after he sat out the last five games with a thumb injury. Cutler is 7-5 against Minnesota since joining the Bears in 2009, but Chicago is 2-11 in his last 13 home starts. In two starts this season, Cutler has thrown for 373 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while the Bears scored 28 points (14 apiece) in losses to the Texans and Eagles.

HOME COOKING

Although the Vikings swept the season series from the Bears in 2015, the home team owns an 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS record since 2011. Minnesota snapped a seven-game skid at Soldier Field with a 23-20 triumph last November as Blair Walsh kicked the game-winning field goal in the final seconds to lift the Vikings. In the next meeting in Minneapolis in late December, the Vikings routed the Bears, 38-17 to easily cash as four-point favorites. Teddy Bridgewater tossed four touchdowns for Minnesota, including a pair to Stefon Diggs. The last time Chicago hosted Minnesota on a Monday night, the Bears tripped up the Vikings in overtime, 36-30 as 8 ½-point underdogs in 2009.

SOLDIER STRUGGLES

The worst home-field advantage currently in the NFL has to lie with the Bears, who are 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS since December 2014 at Soldier Field. Chicago edged Detroit as three-point home ‘dogs in Week 4 by a 17-14 count for its only win on the season. Since 2013, the Bears own a dreadful 4-9 ATS record as a home underdog, but Chicago is 7-3 ATS at Soldier Field against Minnesota since 2006.

GETTING DEFENSIVE

The Vikings have been terrific defensively this season in spite of last week’s loss to the Eagles. Minnesota has held all six opponents to 21 points or less, resulting in a 4-2 mark to the UNDER. The Vikings are 2-1 to the UNDER away from U.S. Bank Stadium with the only OVER hitting by one point in the season opener against the Titans in a 25-16 victory. Since 2010, the Vikings have scored 13, 10, 10, 30, 13, and 23 points in six games at Soldier Field, as the UNDER has cashed four times.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson breaks down Mike Zimmer’s dominance against the number since becoming the Vikings head coach back in 2014, “The Vikings are 29-10 ATS under Zimmer, including 14-5 ATS on the road and 11-3 ATS off a SU loss, but this will be the largest road favorite spread for the team in that time. For what it is worth, the Vikings are actually on a 2-10 ATS run on Monday nights going back to October 2006.”

The Chicago offense has struggled to score points, but Nelson points out those numbers may be deceiving, “Chicago has been a much more productive offensive team than most would expect, actually a top 10 yards per play squad, but the successful games came under Brian Hoyer who was injured early in last week’s loss at Green Bay. While the Vikings have some of the top defensive numbers in the NFL, the statistical profile for the Bears is not what you’d expect as Chicago ranks 11th in the league in yards per play on defense.”

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Minnesota

S. Bradford – Total Gross Passing Yards
229 ½ - OVER (-110)
229 ½ - UNDER (-110)

S. Bradford – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+110)
1 ½ - UNDER (-130)

K. Rudolph – Total Receiving Yards
46 ½ - OVER (-110)
46 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Chicago

J. Cutler – Total Completions
21 ½ - OVER (-110)
21 ½ - UNDER (-110)

J. Cutler – Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
2 ½ - OVER (+140)
2 ½ - UNDER (-160)

Will A. Jeffery score a touchdown?
YES (+180)
NO (-210)

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NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

10/27/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
10/30/2016 10-10-0 50.00% -500

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 71-89-4 44.38% -13450

O/U Picks 66-94-5 41.25% -18700

ATS Picks 66-84-4 44.00% -13200

O/U Picks 61-89-5 40.67% -18450

Triple Plays:..... 16 - 24 - 1

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MONDAY, OCTOBER 31

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at CHI 08:30 PM

CHI +4.0 *****

U 39.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

With Bradford knocked around again, can Vikes be for real?
November 1, 2016

CHICAGO (AP) Quarterback Sam Bradford probably wishes now he'd bought travel insurance for the journey that brought him to Minnesota just in time for the season opener.

What seemed like a steal for most of the last two months as the Vikings cruised to a 5-0 start increasingly feels like a bad trip.

The Chicago Bears exploited the same weaknesses in a 20-10 victory Monday night the Eagles had a week ago, plowing through a slapped-together offensive line and sacking Bradford five times. After stuffing the Vikings punch-less running attack time and again in the first half, Bears defenders keyed on Bradford and forced him into hurried throws an additional nine times.

''Obviously, the last two weeks haven't gone our way,'' Bradford said. ''It's not the same team that came out and started 5-0, but we've got that same team in the locker room. ... We just have to figure the way we did it, what the formula was those first five weeks and do it.''

After being sacked six times in Philadelphia, Bradford wound up 23 of 37 for 228 yards and a touchdown that pulled Minnesota within 10 points with little more than five minutes remaining. But coach Mike Zimmer conceded afterward the Bears were better in nearly every phase of the game.

''Sometimes, you get beat. They played better than we did,'' Zimmer said in one of his longer answers. ''Simple as that.''

Unlike last week, when the coach criticized his offensive line for playing ''soft'' in an ''embarrassing loss,'' Zimmer avoided calling out any unit. He spent most of his five minutes at the podium tightly gripping the side of the lectern and at one point almost looked to be in pain, pinching the bridge of his nose with his thumb and forefinger.

Asked directly whether he was ''hopeful'' he could shore up the offensive line, Zimmer said, ''It's difficult right now. We haven't proven it yet.

''So I don't know if `hopeful' is the right word,'' he added. ''We got to get it fixed, though.''

The troubles up front limited Minnesota's ground game to just 57 yards on 18 attempts. Matt Asiata had 30 yards on 11 carries, and like the offensive line, assistance isn't likely to arrive anytime soon. Running back Adrian Peterson, who suffered a knee injury against the Packers in Week 2, is eligible to return in late November but could be out longer.

Even the Vikings defense, rated No. 1 overall in the NFL, was no help.

That unit was expected to keep Minnesota comfortably in the running for the wide-open NFC North. But Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, returning from a right thumb injury that shelved him late in Week 2, had plenty of time to roll up 252 yards and a touchdown on 20-of-31 passing.

''I thought he played well. He threw the ball well,'' was about all Zimmer would say.

Where the Vikings turn for immediate help is anyone's guess.

General manager Rick Spielman surrendered a first- and conditional fourth-round pick to get Bradford from Philadelphia after starting QB Teddy Bridgewater was injured. During the bye week, the Vikings coaxed veteran tackle Jake Long out of semi-retirement to shore up the offensive line, but that experiment seems doomed.

Long was responsible for two of the Eagles' six sacks a week earlier - both led to strips - and Chicago's rookie edge rusher Leonard Floyd blew by him for the Bears' first sack.

''We got to keep Sam upright,'' Long said. ''When he has a clean pocket he does great things. We just can't let him get hit like that.''

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Tuesday’s six-pack

Six of the more interesting football games this weekend:

— Colorado (-12) over UCLA Thursday. Buffs have come a long way to be a double digit favorite in a league game.

— Eagles scored five TDs during recent 1-3 stretch; interesting game with the Giants, who are coming off a bye.

— Pitt-Miami— Hurricanes are on a 4-game losing streak.

— Steelers-Ravens— Will Big Ben play for Pittsburgh?

— Alabama-LSU— Tide won last four series games by average score of 29-16.

—First place in AFC West is at stake in Denver-Oakland game Sunday night in the Coliseum.


Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Cam Newton was whining about late hits again Sunday, after Carolina beat the Cardinals. Guess he did it then so people could not call him a sore loser, since they had won.

Best part of this is that Carolina goes to LA next week to play the Rams, usually thought of as a dirty team. Refs might start throwing flags during warmups, just to get loosened up. Great.

12) Coco Crisp was going to get $13M from the A’s in 2017 if he played in 140 games this year, something like that. Since his skills are in decline, they were making sure he wasn’t going to reach 140 games, and he voiced his displeasure with that.

Note: It would’ve been incredibly stupid to pay him $13M next year. Fair or unfair, it was good business.

So to quiet the storm and I guess reward a player who had helped the A’s over the last few years, Oakland dealt him to the Indians on August 31 for an obscure lefty reliever named Colt Hynes. Weird circumstances can help a team win a championship.

11) Phoenix Suns have a young player named Alan Williams who was a good very player at Cal-Santa Barbara. If any of the Suns have trouble with the law, they can call Alan up— his mom just got named police chief for the city of Phoenix.

10) Jacksonville Jaguars just fired their OC in large part because the QB had regressed. Who did they replace the OC with? the QB coach, who is in charge of making sure the QB didn’t regress. Oy.

9) Now that the Cleveland Cavaliers are champs, ever wonder what their former coach David Blatt is doing? Guy got fired last year; you have to wonder what he is doing now. Is he coaching somewhere? Did he go back overseas?

Would be interesting if Blatt went on TV, to hear what he had to say. Former coaches are usually better than former players on TV.

8) Who was the first DH in MLB history? Ron Blomberg walked with the bases loaded against Luis Tiant in Fenway Park, in April of 1973, in the first big league AB by a designated hitter.

7) Russell Westbrook is the first NBA player since at least 1983 with 40+ field goal attempts, 20+ free throws and 10+ assists in the same game. He is also the first guy since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1975 to get a triple double with 50+ points.

6) Former Bills’ coach Mark Levy is 91; he looks great. Coach Levy was at Wrigley Field Friday night and was also there for the 1945 World Series, the last time the Cubs played in the Series, before this year.

5) Texas Longhorns haven’t had an offensive player taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since QB Vince Young, in 2006.

4) CFL’s Saskatchewan Roughriders closed out Taylor Field this week; lot of history there. Toronto Blue Jays actually played exhibition games in Regina in 1989 and 1993.

3) If you’ve never experienced Halloween in Las Vegas, I highly recommend it; few years ago, think it was 2012, i spent a weekend at the South Point Casino, which is a really good place, has a bowling alley, movie theater and 24-hour coffee shop as well as an excellent sports book. South Point also has an equestrian arena, so when the pro rodeo is in town, the cowboys stay there.

I had no idea there was such a thing as pro rodeo, so the first night I am there, I walk down into the casino and 95% of the people there are dressed like the cast of Blazing Saddles.

I ask the security guard if it is cowboy Halloween party and he says “No, the pro rodeo is in town.” I tell him I never heard of the pro rodeo. He looks at me and says “Where are you from?”

OK, so we don’t have rodeo in New York…….

2) So couple nights later, the rodeo is out of town and it is Saturday night and I notice a red carpet with TV cameras near the entrance. Ask the same security guard whats up.

“Oh, the fetish and fantasy ball is tonight.” he says. I give him a knowing look, not wanting to be a fool again, since I know we have fetish and fantasy here in New York but I had no idea what I was about to see.

An astounding parade of people in all kinds of costumes that were, um……revealing to say the least. I’m leaning up against a slot machine watching this in total amazement.

1) So I watch the parade for a little while then go watch the late college football games; after that I’m going up to my room for something and I get on the elevator with this couple from the fetish and fantasy ball.

He is dressed as a prison guard, handcuffs, night stick and all; she is in shackles and a neck collar, with an outfit that is torn in very strategic places. She had to be a model or a porn star, totally gorgeous and it is just the three of us on the elevator. I have zero idea what to do or say.

So I say nothing until we get to my floor and I wish them a Happy Halloween as I get off the elevator. I’m guessing they did.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 8
October 31, 2016

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 8 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-2-1
Against the Spread 8-4

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-4-1
Against the Spread 6-6

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-3

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Raiders (+1) at Buccaneers, 30-24 (OT)
Saints (+1) vs. Seahawks, 25-20

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-5.5) at Bills, 41-25
Cowboys (-5) vs. Eagles, 29-23 (OT)
Broncos (-3.5) vs. Chargers, 27-19

Falcon Favorites?

-- The Atlanta Falcons rallied in the closing seconds to top the visiting Green Bay Packers 33-32 in a battle of gunslingers. The win ended a crazy streak, as the Falcons entered 0-7 SU in their past seven games as a favorite. They're still just 8-22-1 ATS in their past 31 as favorites, and an amazing 0-11 ATS over the past 11. They opened as a three-point favorite for their road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thursday night in Week 9.

Browns Frowns

-- The Cleveland Browns fell for the eighth time in eight games this season, dropping a 31-28 decision to the New York Jets. In the stadium affectionately known as the 'Factory of Sadness', but Browns fell to 0-3 SU/ATS at home this season, and they opened as touchdown underdogs to the visiting Dallas Cowboys for Week 9. Overall the Browns are 2-6 ATS, and 1-4 ATS as an underdog in the single digits. Thanks to an alarmingly bad defense, betting the total is the way to go in Cleveland games. The 'over' is 6-1 over the past seven.
Total Recall

-- The 'over' was back in the majority in Week 8. And how! After the 'under' finally won out in Week 7, it was back to high-scoring football in Week 9 with 'over' results in nine of the first 12 games heading into Monday night. In five games between AFC squads the 'over' went 4-1. In the NFC, the 'over' was 3-1 in four games and another result to come with the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears still yet to battle. In AFC vs. NFC games, the 'over' ended up 2-1. Through the first seven weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 66-53 (55.5%).

-- In the five games with the lowest total lines, all five hit the 'over' in Week 8. San Diego-Denver (43), Jacksonville-Tennessee (43.5), Philadelphia-Dallas (44), N.Y. Jets-Cleveland (45.5) and Arizona-Cardinal (45.5) went 'over' the total. For Week 9 there will be a handful of totals in the neighborhood of 43 and 44, and lately that has been a good way to make money on the 'over'.

-- Two of three games on the schedule with lines over 50 points actually hit the 'under'. The Green Bay-Atlanta (51) game lived up to expectations of a shootout, but Seattle-New Orleans (50) and Kansas City-Indianapolis (50.5) were each about a couple of field goals short of the mark. There will be at least three games with totals of the 50-point threshhold in Week 9, including the Thursday nighter in Tampa.

-- The 'over' finished 2-0 in two primetime games in Week 8, with the Monday nighter yet to come. Officially, the 'over' is 11-13 (45.8%) through 24 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Buccaneers RB Jacquizz Rodgers (foot) was in a walking boot due to a sprained foot after Sunday's overtime loss against the Raiders, and the media in Tampa is reporting it is a good bet Rodgers will be sidelined Thursday. That might be why the team re-signed former back Mike James Monday.

-- Chiefs QB Alex Smith (head) suffered what was believed to be a concussion in Indianapolis, leaving the field awfully wobbly. He was able to return, but then checked back out again later. While the word from the team is that Smith did not suffer concussion officially, he looked awfully shaky.

-- Falcons TE Jacob Tamme (shoulder) was knocked out of the shootout against the Packers Sunday, but his injury not believed to be serious. However, he is in jeopardy of missing the Tampa game due to the short week.

-- Titans RB DeMarco Murray (toe) battled through a toe injury in Thursday's game against Jacksonville, and was sent for an MRI. It appears he'll be able to continue to play, but the situation is worth monitoring.

Looking Ahead

-- The Falcons head down Interstate 75 to battle the Buccaneers Thursday night. (OK, they're flying.) The Bucs are 3-2 SU at home in the past five meetings against the Falcons, going 3-1-1 ATS. The teams met in Week 1, and Tampa Bay came away with a 31-24 win despite being 2 1/2-point underdogs. QB Jameis Winston is 3-0 SU/ATS as a starter against the Falcons, and the last time the Falcons were victorious in this series was Nov. 9, 2014.

-- The Steelers and Ravens hook up in Charm City, and usually the visits by Pittsburgh do not end very well. The Steelers have come up empty in their past three trips to Baltimore, last winning in M&T Bank Stadium Nov. 8, 2012. Baltimore swept last season's meetings, and they're 4-1 SU/3-1-1 ATS over the past five overall in this series, while going 8-3 SU/5-4-2 ATS during the span.

-- The Vikings and Lions renew acquaintances in the Twin Cities Sunday. Overall they're 7-2 ATS in the past nine in this series. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

-- The Jets invade Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida, and lately it has been a home away from home for Gang Green. The Jets have won four straight at Miami dating back to Jan. 1, 2012, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six visits. The Jets have covered five consecutive meetings in this series.

-- The Raiders have looked much improved this season, and we'll find out if they're completely back when the Broncos come calling next Sunday night. The Silver and Black have dropped five straight home games against the Broncos dating back to Dec. 19, 2010, and they're 0-5 ATS during the span. Over the past nine in this series the Broncos are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS, but the Raiders are a much different team than past seasons. Or are they?

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 9
October 31, 2016

Here’s a game-by-game look the early point spreads for the NFL’s Week 9 betting card, with insight from two Las Vegas oddsmakers – CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons.

The numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, with early line moves and differences among sports books noted.

Thursday , Nov. 3

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have won the last three meetings in this series, including at Atlanta in Week 1 this season. That didn’t stop oddsmakers from posting the Falcons as the road favorites and early bettors from laying the points. CG Technology opened Atlanta -2, moved on air from -2.5 minutes later, and then to -3 after taking a bet on the chalk.

“We have a few guys each week who try to hit the early numbers if they think they’re off, and this was one of those guys,” Simbal said of the wager.

Sunday, Nov. 6

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs opened -7.5 at the Westgate and -8 at CG.

While Salmons doesn’t see a big difference between Alex Smith and Nick Foles – the Chiefs “just do what they do,” he said, “it’s not like it’s a complicated offense” – some books will hold off hanging a number on this game until they learn more about Smith’s status. He took a couple shots to the head in Sunday’s game against the Colts.

“The reason we (posted the game) is because we’re in so many Strip properties and there’s a lot of fans that want to bet games like this,” said Simbal. ”So we try to put up our best estimate of a number and let the bets decide if they think he’s going to play or not. We went with 8, which is closer to him playing but not as high as it could be.”

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)

This line ranged from Minnesota -6 at William Hill U.S. to -7 at CG Technology on Sunday night.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)

Before Philly took the field in Dallas on Sunday night, CG was dealing the Giants -2.5 for next week’s NFC East showdown, while the Westgate hung -3.

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Cleveland Browns

The Browns were offered at +6.5 at the Westgate and +7 on Sunday as they look for their first win of the season at home next week against the Cowboys.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

The Westgate and CG both opened Miami -3 (-120) with quick moves to -3.5. Bettors faded the Jets against the Browns last week, moving the line in Las Vegas from New York -4.5 to -2.5, an indication of the market’s lack of confidence in Todd Bowles’ men.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Despite Ben Roethlisberger’s likely absence, public bettors were on the Steelers at CG on Sunday for next week’s AFC North clash in Baltimore. The line stayed put at 2.5, though, since public money early in the week doesn’t influence books to move their numbers. Still, the early action told Simbal something.

“We took a bunch of public money on the Steelers pretty quickly,” he said. “That means, to me, that number is probably about right because if the public is taking the Steelers +2.5, this might be a situation where we actually need a favorite.”

Salmons, meanwhile, is waiting to post a number on this game until he’s sure Roethlisberger will not play. If he starts, the Steelers will be at least 3- or 3.5-point favorites next week, he said.

Simbal and Salmons agree that it’s hard to evaluate Roethlisberger’s replacement, Landry Jones, from the Patriots game two weeks ago – Jones’ lone start of the season – because of the sizable gap between the Pats and the rest of the league.

Simbal recalled the betting pattern of that game, “Most people had Pittsburgh -2 and it closed New England -7, but Roethlisberger’s not really worth 9 points; he’s just worth 9 points against New England. Against a team like Baltimore, he’s worth a lot less.”

New Orleans Saints (-3) at San Francisco 49ers

While laying this short number will entice plenty of public players, they should be aware that the road favorite role has been particularly brutal for the Saints. Since 2013, New Orleans is a bankroll-busting 2-9 ATS when laying points away from home.

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Carolina was bet from -2.5 to -3 at multiple shops on Sunday, but the +3s didn’t last long for Rams bettors, as the line settled back at 2.5.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7)

Despite a multitude of injuries for the Packers, CG took a few early Green Bay bets on Sunday. Not enough, though, for the book to move off -6.5.

“You don’t really want to go to 7 because of (the injuries) and give sharp guys the +7,” Simbal said. “If there are so many injuries, the public may not want to lay the 7, so it can put you in a bad spot. We’ll probably have to sit tight here and see what happens.”

Most shops were dealing 7, however.

Salmons said he can see this line going as low as Green Bay -4.5, depending on how many significant players can’t go, but he believes the Packers have bigger problems than the immediate health of their roster.

“It looks like a team that got old really fast,” Salmons said. “You can see it. They just have zero team speed, bottom line.”

The good news is they’re playing the Colts next week.

“The Colts are just so wretched,” Salmons said. “(The Colts and Packers are) two teams going in a downhill direction. Green Bay at least has a pulse. You watch this (Colts) team every week and you say to yourself, ‘how can this guy (Chuck Pagano) still be coaching this team?’”

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-5)

Speaking of wretched, San Diego is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 opportunities as a favorite. That didn’t stop bettors from laying the Chargers from -4.5 up to -5 at some spots in Vegas. As of this writing, the line ranged from 4.5 to 5.5.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (pick ‘em)

While most books have this game a pick ‘em, the Westgate was dealing Denver -1 on Sunday. Salmons isn’t all that high on the 5-2 Raiders.

“They keep getting miracle wins against these really bad teams,” he said. “… I expect them to lose to Denver next week.”

Monday, Nov. 6

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

CG opened Seattle -6 and was bet to -6.5 by wiseguys who may have been trying to get ahead of the public money that’s sure to come.

“I don’t know how much of (the early wagering on Seattle) is realizing how horrible Buffalo looked and that on a Monday night all the fans will bet the Seahawks.”

Simbal seemed to welcome the action on the favorite.

“This is the type of game where the Bills should be able to hang,” he said. “You saw it (Sunday vs. the Patriots). Their offense is actually decent. They just had stupid penalties, which Seattle tends to have as well. They just couldn’t stop Brady. But Seattle’s offense is very uninspiring.”

Salmons added of the Seahawks, “Their offense is playing so bad. I don’t know what their answer is on offense. You keep saying to yourself, one of these weeks they’re going to wake up and be Seattle, but I’m not so sure Seattle’s not heading in the same direction as Green Bay.”

[StarDust Bum]

Trends to Watch - November
October 30, 2016

November brings out the best in family, football and friends. It’s the time of the year when the NFL makes its 2nd half run to the playoffs, and where friends and family dine around the Thanksgiving Day table for food and good times.

Let’s ensure a good time playing the football games with these delectable morsels of trends and patterns by NFL teams since 1990. Enjoy the games, and pass on the gravy.

HOME TEAMS

Good: Buffalo has been the best home team this time of the season at 31-18 ATS. Unfortunately, thanks to a bye week, they have just one home game against Jacksonville (11/27).

Bad: Maybe a change in venue will help the Rams, since they are miserable 17-37 ATS playing at home this month. Carolina (11/6) and Miami (11/20) will pay a visit to Los Angeles.

Nearly as bad is Cleveland at 11-22 ATS and they will have a trio of opportunities to improve, but all are against playoff contenders. The Browns will take on the Dallas (11/6), Pittsburgh (11/20) and the New York Giants (11/27).

Keep an eye on (Bad): For some reason, there are several NFL teams that are money-drainers in November at home. Let's start in the NFC East with the Giants (17-32 ATS) and Washington (20-30 ATS). The G-Men actually have a three-game homestand to start the month, facing Philadelphia (11/6), Cincinnati (11/14) and Chicago (11/20). After a bye week, the Redskins host NFC North clubs Minnesota (11/13) and Green Bay(11/20) on consecutive weeks.

In the AFC, we find Oakland (16-31 ATS) and Tennessee (19-29 ATS) have been rather awful in their buildings. The Raiders have Sunday night game on the 6th against Denver and close the month on the 27th versus Carolina. The Titans have three road games in November, thus their fans will just see Green Bay (11/13).

AWAY TEAMS

Good: Houston has been rather dismal on the road in 2016, let's see if they can match 18-8 ATS November records from the past. After a week off the Texans are at Jacksonville (11/13) followed by a trip to Mexico to play the Raiders (11/20).

Keep an eye on (Good): Chicago has an exceptional 37-20 spread record away from the Windy City and will venture to Tampa Bay and New Jersey (Giants) in the middle two Sunday's of the month.

Indianapolis (33-19 ATS) and the Browns (29-17 ATS) have also thrived out of town. The Colts will be at the not quite frozen tundra in Lambeau Field on the Nov.6th, with Cleveland at truly hated Baltimore on a Thursday night (11/10).

Keep an eye on (Bad): Other than last year, Detroit usually fades in the second half as noted by 16-29 ATS mark on the road. Lucky for the Lions only one road assignment, which is at Minnesota on the first Sunday of the month.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Despite Carolina’s precipitous fall this season, they are 28-18 ATS and could be favored in four of their games this month.

The Bears are solid 23-14 ATS when handing out points and figure to be a small home favorite over Tennessee on the 27th, but that could change by game time.

Dallas for much of the Tony Romo era was known for great November's and collapsing in December. He contributed to 42-28 ATS record this month, and his teammates will be favored at Cleveland (11/6), home against Baltimore (11/20) and versus the Redskins (Thanksgiving), with game at Pittsburgh (11/13) up in the air depending on Ben Roethlisberger's availability.

Bad: Washington is a horrific favorite in November with a 12-29 ATS record, but we will have to see if they are assigned that role at home against the Vikings (11/13) and Packers (11/20).

Keep an eye on (Bad): The Rams are 15-26 ATS in chalk roles and they might be once at home against Miami (11/20).

Oakland is actually worse than L.A. handing out the digits at 15-28 against the spread, yet are likely small favorites against the Texans (11/20) in Mexico and the following week hosting the Panthers. The Raiders are probably a short home dog to Denver on the 6th, but that is wait and see.

UNDERDOGS

Keep an eye on (Good): Usually by now, Tampa Bay is playing out the season and that has made them a dangerous underdog at 40-24 ATS. However, the numbers will be smaller this season in that role with improvement, going to K.C. (11/20) and hosting Seattle the next week.

Houston is sharp 21-14 ATS as a pooch and as mentioned, will most likely get a few points against Oakland and have a slight chance of being no more than a one-point dog at Jacksonville (11/13) coming off a bye.

Bad: A lot of negative talk about the Rams, but when you have all these rotten numbers and add in 15-34 ATS mark as underdogs, it is unavoidable. Oddsmakers will probably make L.A. a dog when Cam Newton and company comes to town on the 6th and assuredly Jeff Fisher's squad will be given points at the Jets (11/13) and at the Saints (11/27).

The Giants are dreadful 13-31 ATS receiving point from sportsbooks, yet do not figure to be underdogs, unless Cincinnati (11/14) gets hot for visit to Jersey on Monday night.

Keep an eye on (Bad): The Lions are at 23-40 ATS are play against material as underdogs. For sure they will dogs at Minnesota (11/6), however, the return engagement on Thanksgiving is not a certainty.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): New Orleans posts a quality 27-15 ATS record in the NFC South and will at Carolina on the 17th for a Thursday throw-down.

Da Raiders are 28-19 ATS and can make some noise with a home upset of the Broncos on the first Sunday. The Eagles will fly to play the Giants also on Nov.6th and try to improve on 30-20 ATS division mark.

Keep an eye on (Bad): The Chiefs are undistinguished 18-29 ATS in the AFC West and will be at a Mile High on the 27th.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 9 NFL

Falcons (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-4)— Underdogs are 20-3 vs spread in Atlanta games since Quinn has been their coach. Over is 7-1 in their games this year; road teams covered seven of eight games. Falcons are 3-1 on road (4-0 vs spread) but were dogs in all four. Bucs are 0-3 at home this year after 30-24 OT loss to Oakland; Raiders ran 85 plays for 626 yards, averaged 8.2 ypa. Tampa allowed 24 or less points in its wins, 27+ in its losses. Tampa Bay had three TD plays of 23+ yards in 31-24 win (+3) in season opener in Atlanta; Winston averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt. Bucs won last three series games, by 3-4-7 points; LY was their first series sweep since ’07. Falcons are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South divisional games so far this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

ATS

8:30 pm 11/6/2016
(471) DENVER @(472) OAKLAND
Play ON DENVER against the spread in All games as an underdog.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!

4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play ON SAN DIEGO against the spread in All games against AFC South division opponents.
The record is 26 Wins and 4 Losses since 1992 (+21.6 units)
BET NOW!

4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play ON SAN DIEGO against the spread in Home games against AFC South division opponents.
The record is 15 Wins and 1 Losses since 1992 (+13.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play ON DALLAS against the spread in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play ON DALLAS against the spread in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(453) DETROIT @(454) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.6 units)
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1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(453) DETROIT @(454) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.6 units)
BET NOW!

8:25 pm 11/3/2016
(307) ATLANTA @(308) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games as a favorite.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.1 units)
BET NOW!

8:25 pm 11/3/2016
(307) ATLANTA @(308) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games as a favorite.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.6 units)
BET NOW!