The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

Tom Brady arrives at Cleveland's stadium with game face on
October 9, 2016

His eyes staring straight ahead, Tom Brady strode down the corridors of Cleveland's FirstEnergy Stadium and into the visiting locker room three hours before he'll finally take the field in a 2016 NFL game.

Brady was wearing headphones around his neck and a glare on his face Sunday morning. He already had his game face on.

The New England quarterback came off the suspended list on Monday after serving a four-game suspension for his role in the use of deflated footballs in the 2014 AFC championship game. The Patriots went 3-1 without him.

''Deflategate'' is behind Brady. In front of him are the 0-4 Cleveland Browns at 1 p.m.

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Broncos rookie Lynch to start Sunday
October 8, 2016

DENVER (AP) Broncos rookie Paxton Lynch will make his first NFL start Sunday when Denver hosts the Atlanta Falcons, a person with knowledge of coach Gary Kubiak's decision told The Associated Press on Saturday.

The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the team didn't make the choice public, said Trevor Siemian's sprained left shoulder isn't 100 percent and the hope is that the extra time will allow Siemian to start Thursday night in San Diego.

Siemian sprained his AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder just before halftime of Denver's 27-7 win at Tampa Bay last weekend and Lynch completed 14 of 24 passes for 170 yards and a TD in relief.

Kubiak reiterated Monday that Siemian was still his starter but would only play this weekend if his health allowed. On Friday, Kubiak said the short turnaround before the Chargers game would have no bearing on who he decides to start against Atlanta.

The Falcons (3-1) bring the NFL's top-rated offense but the league's 30th-ranked defense into Denver on Sunday, where the Broncos (4-0) are seeking their 10th consecutive victory.

Lynch got all the snaps with the starters with Siemian sitting out Wednesday's practice, and he continued to get the bulk of the reps even as Siemian returned Thursday and gradually increased his workload.

Unlike last year, when the Broncos had to make major changes in their game plan depending on whether Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler was starting, the coaches only have to thin the playbook a little bit with Lynch, the 26th overall pick out of Memphis in the April draft.

''It definitely feels good knowing that I've played in a game if I were to start or play in this game,'' Lynch said Wednesday. ''It feels good to get some game reps under your belt so you're not just thrown out there.''

[StarDust Bum]

Trends To Watch - October
October 9, 2016

October is a great month for sports fans alike with the MLB playoffs and the start of the NBA season. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during Halloween’s month.

That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October. All we extracted from the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine.

We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer.

Enjoy!

HOME TEAMS

Good: If there is one aspect you can count on this month, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers covering spreads at home. The Steelers have annually begun to hit their stride in October and particularly so at Heinz Field. The Steelers are 34-15 ATS and have Kansas City (10/2), the Jets (10/9) and New England (10/23) in the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Good): Another high quality squad this loves home cookin' this month is Cincinnati, who is 19-10 against the oddsmakers. Too bad this year's schedule has so many road games with only Cleveland on the Oct. 23rd paying a visit.

Keep an eye on (Bad): For underperforming teams at home we find three that fit the bill. Chicago (18-29 ATS) is no surprise and neither is Jacksonville (14-23 ATS), but Seattle (16-26 ATS) with the 12th man certainly is.

The Bears have Detroit to start the month, the Jaguars in the middle of the month and Minnesota on Halloween.

Jacksonville justifiably gives up a home game for London trip and only has Oakland on the 23rd. The Seahawks have three away games and a bye, which means only Atlanta on the 16th are on Coffee Town.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): With the defending NFC champions Carolina off to a slow start, they will look to enhance 26-15 ATS road record against division foes Atlanta (10/2) and New Orleans (10/16).

The New York Giants always had a solid reputation at road warriors under former coach Tom Coughlin. The G-Men will be tested in back to back trips against Minnesota (10/3) and Green Bay (10/9) just six days apart.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona will be challenged to improve pathetic 14-27 ATS mark this month, playing on first Thursday game at San Francisco and the day before Halloween in a NFC title tilt rematch at Carolina.

Cincinnati is 20-34 ATS away from home and its arduous early season slate continues with consecutive contests at Dallas and at New England beginning Oct.9th.

Seattle is only 19-35 ATS away from the Northwest this month and has a trio of sojourns to New Jersey (Jets) to start October and finishes things in the Arizona desert and in the bayou of Louisiana.

Tampa Bay has a rare Monday matchup at Carolina on the 10th and 13 days later in Frisco, and will be trying to better 16-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): The team from St. Louis is a sharp 21-11 handing out points and will try and see if that act continues in L.A. Only contest with Buffalo (10/9) might fit the bill.

San Francisco is 39-23 ATS, with nearly all of that accomplished with far better teams than this one. Possibly a date with Tampa Bay (10/23) could make this active angle.

Bad: The Bears are stinky 11-23 ATS as favorites and they catch Jacksonville (10/16) two weeks after their London trip.

Keep an eye on (Bad): With two games against New England this month, you know the Bills will not be favored in those, but assuredly they could better 20-30 ATS mark against the Niners at home on the 16th.

Jacksonville is another club not suited for handing out points, with only a 10-19 spread record. The Raiders in north Florida on the 23rd of the month is only possibility for winner.

Tampa Bay is none too pretty 16-26 ATS doling out digits. Contests at San Francisco and Oakland are only two games of the month where they could be favored.

We start this month not exactly sure what the status of Russell Wilson will be, but we do know Seattle is sickly 15-28 ATS as favored outfit.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Pittsburgh is remarkable 23-9 ATS this month in the role, but the only slightly conceivable chance they might be when New England and Tom Brady visit on the 23rd.

Keep an eye on (Good): Speaking of the Patriots, they are pretty good road dogs also at 22-14 ATS. They could be the pooch at the aforementioned Steelers. Somebody has to be, right?

Chicago is 28-17 ATS when receiving points and they will get a lot of practice this month to better that record, because the only opportunity they could be favored in five games is home against Jacksonville (10/16).

Mentioned the Giants as a quality road outfit and they have been even better as underdogs (23-13 ATS) and will be in that role in the Midwest at the Vikings and Packers.

Keep an eye on (Bad): San Francisco will be a underdog in first three games of the month against Dallas, Arizona and at Buffalo. The Tampa Bay tilt on the 23rd in Santa Clara is too be determined and nobody knows how the Niners will matchup against a bye week. Either way, the Niners are still 13-24 ATS.

We forget how bad Seattle used to be as 21-32 ATS record shows. However, only chance the Seahawks will be getting points is at Arizona (10/23).

DIVISION

Bad: Are the 49ers really 2-14 ATS against the NFC West in October? Yes they are and they will be home to Arizona (10/6).

In the same category is Cincinnati at 12-29 ATS and they will welcome Cleveland to the Queen City in the first of two battles of Ohio.

Keep an eye on (Bad): New Orleans has not been a good home division team for a numbers of seasons and is only 13-24 ATS in that situation against any NFC South foes. They have the Panthers in town on the 16th.

Indianapolis has not seen much success beating spreads versus AFC South foes at 15-23 ATS. Not much help coming for the Colts as they will playing all three opponents away from home, the first in London against Jacksonville.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 9

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at MIN 01:00 PM

HOU +6.0

U 39.0

NE at CLE 01:00 PM

CLE +10.5

O 47.5

NYJ at PIT 01:00 PM

NYJ +10.0 *****

O 50.0

PHI at DET 01:00 PM

DET +3.5

O 46.0


WAS at BAL 01:00 PM

BAL -3.5

O 44.5


CHI at IND 01:00 PM

IND -4.5

U 47.0


TEN at MIA 01:00 PM

TEN +3.0

U 44.0


ATL at DEN 04:05 PM

DEN -4.0 *****

O 44.5


BUF at LA 04:25 PM

BUF -2.5 *****

U 41.0 *****


SD at OAK 04:25 PM

SD +3.5

U 50.5


CIN at DAL 04:25 PM

DAL +2.5

O 46.0

[StarDust Bum]

NYG at GB 08:30 PM

GB -7.0 *****

O 48.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 5
October 10, 2016


Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 5 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Falcons (+4, ML +170) at Broncos, 23-16
Redskins (+4, ML +170) at Ravens, 16-10
Lions (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Eagles, 24-23

The largest favorite to cover

Patriots (-10) at Browns, 33-13
Steelers (-10) vs. Jets, 31-13
Vikings (-6) vs. Texans, 33-13

Cover Stars

-- The Dallas Cowboys ran out to a 28-0 lead against the visiting Cincinnati Bengals, and ended up finishing their opponent 28-14. The Cowboys have won and covered four straight games since their opening night setback against the New York Giants.The Cowboys defense has been just as bad a reason for their success as their offense, allowing just 16.0 PPG over their past three outings. They will travel to Lambeau Field to meet the Green Bay Packers, a team which is 2-0 SU/1-0-1 ATS in two home games so far.

Steel Resolve

-- The Pittsburgh Steelers routed the banged up New York Jets, 31-13. Pittsburgh improved to 4-1 SU/ATS, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS in Steelers Country, a.k.a. Heinz Field. The Steelers have scored 31 or more points in three of their five games, and they're averaging 32.7 points per game (PPG) in three home games. The Steelers have also allowed 16 or fewer points in four of their five outings. Next up is a trip to Hard Rock Stadium in Week 6 to visit the sinking Miami Dolphins.
Total Recall

-- The 'over' is 7-6 heading into Monday's NFC South rivalry between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers. In four games between AFC combatants the 'over/under' split at 2-2. In four games featuring two NFC squads the 'over' edged the 'under' 2-1. In six games featuring AFC and NFC combatants, the 'over/under' finished 3-3. The 'over' is 42-34 through the first five weekends (with one game remaining), and each week has featured a majority of the games going 'over' so far

-- The four games with the highest lines failed to produce shootouts in three of the outings. New England-Cleveland (48) just missed the 'over', as the Patriots won 33-13 in Tom Brady's return to the lineup. N.Y. Jets-Pittsburgh (50) was a one-sided affair, with the Steelers shutting down visiting Gang Green by a 31-13 margin. N.Y. Giants-Green Bay (50) was a game of missed opportunities, featuring a total of six field goals and just three touchdowns, which 'over' bettors are never a fan to see. The only game which turned into a track meet was San Diego-Oakland (51), the highest total on the board, which easily hit the 'over' in a 34-31 Raiders win.

-- Three games had totals close at 42 1/2 or lower, and all three games ending up cashing the 'over'. Arizona-San Francisco (42.5) wwas a surprisingly offensive affair despite the fact the Cardinals were using backup QB Drew Stanton for the injured QB Carson Palmer (concussion). Buffalo-Los Angeles (41.5) inched 'over' with a 30-19 Bills win, and the lowest total on the board, Houston-Minnesota (38.5) easily cashed, as the Vikings put up 31 in their victory to nearly cover the 'over' themselves.

-- The 'over/under' split 1-1 in two primetime games in Week 5 heading into the Bucs-Panthers tilt. Officially, the 'over/under' is 8-7 (53.3%) through 15 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Browns QB Cody Kessler (chest, ribs) was knocked out of the game against the Patriots, the fourth Cleveland signal caller injured in five games. He is scheduled to have a CT scan Monday.

-- Packers RB Eddie Lacy (ankle) rolled his ankle in the Sunday night battle against the Giants, and he was done for the evening after trying to return and failing.

Looking Ahead

-- The Chargers welcome the Broncos to town Thursday night, and usually that doesn't end well for San Diego. The Bolts are 0-5 SU/ATS in their past five meetings with the Broncos, last winning at home against Denver back on Nov. 22, 2010. In the past 10 meetings in this series the Broncos are 1-9 SU/4-6 ATS.

-- The Panthers head down to the Bayou for a visit with the Saints. Carolina has dominated this series, going 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS over the past eight meetings, including 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS in their past four visits to the Crescent City. The Saints are 0-2 SU/ATS in two home games this season, and they're 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS over their past six games at home dating back to last season.

-- The Redskins welcome the Eagles to the nation's capital for the first of two battles with Philadelphia. Washington might petition the NFL to allow them to play each other more, as the Redskins have won three straight meetings while covering four in a row in the series. They opened as a two-point underdog at home.

-- The Raiders look to turn things around in their AFC West Divisional rivalry against the visiting Chiefs. Kansas City has won five of the past six in the series, going 4-2 ATS during the span.

-- The Colts and Texans will do battle next Sunday night, and Indianapolis looks to stay hot against their AFC South Division rivals. Indy is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, winning and covering three straight at NRG Stadium in Houston.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 5
October 10, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4

Week 5

1) Cincinnati -1 (841) LOSS
2) Philadelphia -3 (568) LOSS
3) Minnesota -6.5 (508) WIN
4) Pittsburgh -7 (494) WIN
5) N.Y. Giants +7.5 (476) WIN

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 5 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Arizona (-3.5) 130 San Francisco (+3.5) 78
Houston (+6.5) 273 Minnesota (-6.5) 508
Tennessee (+3.5) 332 Miami (-3.5) 131
New England (-10.5) 368 Cleveland (+10.5) 282
N.Y. Jets (+7) 221 Pittsburgh (-7) 494
Washington (+4) 397 Baltimore (-4) 240
Philadelphia (-3) 568 Detroit (+3) 443
Chicago (+4.5) 331 Indianapolis (-4.5) 203
Atlanta (+5.5) 314 Denver (-5.5) 383
Buffalo (+2) 430 Los Angeles (-2) 325
San Diego (+3.5) 441 Oakland (-3.5) 334
Cincinnati (-1) 841 Dallas (+1) 215
N.Y. Giants (+7.5) 476 Green Bay (-7.5) 143
Tampa Bay (+6.5) 224 Carolina (-6.5) 95

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%

[StarDust Bum]

Books, Public draw in Week 5
October 10, 2016

You have to hand it to the betting public in Sunday's Week 5 NFL action for knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. The day ended up being an overall wash for both the sports books and bettors, which is actually a win for the bettors, but it was pretty impressive how they had the foresight to bail one of their favorite teams and came out a winner.

The Broncos came off a Super Bowl championship and started the season 4-0 while also covering the spread in their last six games. The public loves siding with winners and they ride streaks. Denver's win over Tampa Bay last week was one of the most one-sided bet games of the week. But in Week 5, they jumped ship and hopped aboard the Falcons wagon, and they we're right as Atlanta won 23-16 at Mile High, a score that doesn't really detail the true wipe out it was.

"Yeah, they love the high octane offenses," Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said of average Joe betting approach. "Whoever thought the public would fall in love with Matt Ryan? He wasn't even drafted in a lot of fantasy leagues."

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay expanded more on why Denver might have been dumped by it's regular supporters at the bet windows saying, "They just don't go with defensive teams, they never have. It's the high scoring teams that get them excited, because they want the best possibility of having an easy blowout with their bets."

Sharp money had bet the Falcons from +6 to +4 during the week and when it was announced that starting QB Trevor Siemian wouldn't start on Saturday, there wasn't much of an adjustment to the number because rookie back-up Paxton Lynch wasn't considered much of a drop off.

Kornegay, a die-hard Broncos fans, was impressed with what he saw out of the Falcons.

"The Falcons were very physical and held their own on both sides of the ball," he said. "They protected well and they got a nice pass rush in. I was kind of surprised their offensive line kept the Broncos pass rush in check."

Even though the Vikings are a defensive team, and definitely not sexy offensively, the betting public stayed on board, believing in them far more than they did the Texans on the road. They laid -6 and -7 and cashed with a 31-13 win. They also laid -10 with the Patriots at Cleveland in Tom Brady's triumphant return as he threw for over 400 yards in a 33-13 win. The Steelers (-9.5) were also a popular bet on parlays and they beat the Jets 31-13.

The only game the public needed to cash a bunch of four-team parlays in the morning was the Eagles laying -3.5 at Detroit. In another show of how the fickle public operates, they had bet the Steelers heavy in Week 3 action against the Eagles, a game Philly dominated 34-3. It sold them, and they had to wait two weeks to bet the Eagles, waiting through the Week 4 bye. And they came strong to the windows. The Eagles were the most sided bet game of the week -- sharps liked them too -- and it became the biggest decision for the books among the first 11 games. The Lions tried to give a 21-7 lead away, but came away with the 24-23 win which paid +165 on the money-line.

"The Lions winning was our best decision of the day," said Kornegay. "It felt like everyone in the house had a ticket on the Eagles of some kind. Every time the Eagles did something positive the entire crowd roared."

After getting a favorable decision with the Raiders failing to cover -3.5 in their 34-31 home win against the Chargers, the books were showing a win for the day but all the risk was tied into the Packers and Over, with a big emphasis on the Over.

"If tonight's game goes Over (50), we will end up a small loser on the day," Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick said prior to the Sunday night kickoff where the Packers were 7-point home favorites over the New York Giants.

The game stayed 'under' but but it landed on the spread with the Packers 23-16 win. Sharp money took +7.5 earlier in the week got paid and all the other spread bets got a refund, which hurt the books who didn't kill any of the live parlays going into either side. Parlays from the day reduced down and both sides of the teaser won.

"Disaster," was all William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich replied with in a text.

On the day, favorites went 6-5-1 against the spread with four underdogs winning outright and the totals were split at 6-6.

Way to go bettors, you've had the books on the ropes for the past couple of weeks. Keep at it, stay focused and get your game plan of attack ready for week 6.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Buccaneers at Panthers
October 9, 2016

The Falcons have jumped out to a solid start in the NFC South race, but the defending division champions aren’t ready to give up yet. Carolina has started this season at 1-3 after losing only one regular season game in 2015, but the Panthers will be down several key players, including quarterback Cam Newton. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers won their season opener at Atlanta, but have failed to win in each of their last three games as they go for their second divisional road victory of the season.

LAST WEEK

For the second straight season, the Panthers traveled to the Georgia Dome and left with a defeat. After dropping a 20-13 decision last season in Atlanta, the Falcons’ offense exploded against Carolina in Week 4 by pounding the conference champions, 48-33. Atlanta amassed nearly 600 yards of offense, including 503 yards from the right arm of Matt Ryan.

Newton left the game in the fourth quarter with a concussion after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit. The 2015 Most Valuable Player threw for 165 yards and a touchdown before exiting in favor of Derek Anderson. The Carolina back-up quarterback connected on a pair of touchdowns passes in a 23-point fourth quarter, but the Panthers couldn’t pull off the rally as Anderson was intercepted twice.

The Buccaneers’ offense has been missing in two of three during their current three-game skid. Tampa Bay has been limited to seven points in losses to Arizona and Denver, as the defending Super Bowl champions routed the Bucs last Sunday, 27-7 as 3 ½-point favorites.

Jameis Winston threw four touchdowns opening week against the Falcons, but the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner has gone backwards recently. Winston was intercepted twice against the powerful Denver defense, as the former Florida State standout has been picked off seven times in the last three losses. Tampa Bay amassed 215 yards offensively, while running back Doug Martin sat out due to a hamstring injury.

DEREK’S DAY

Newton will sit out on Monday night due to the lingering concussion symptoms, as Anderson will make his first start for Carolina since 2014. Coincidentally, Anderson made only two starts that season, both against Tampa Bay as the Panthers beat the Buccaneers each time. Anderson threw three touchdown passes and completed 66% of his attempts, while throwing for 507 yards in those wins.

INJURY BUG

Past Newton being sidelined, both teams are without their top running backs as Martin remains out for Tampa Bay and Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart are each out with hamstring injuries. Bucs’ defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is listed as doubtful with a calf injury suffered in the Week 4 loss to Denver. Tampa Bay’s rushing game has faltered without Martin, as the Bucs ran for 72 yards on 26 carries against Denver, 83 yards against Los Angeles, and only 85 yards in a Week 2 blowout loss at Arizona.

BANK ON IT

The Panthers finished last season with a perfect 10-0 record at Bank of America Stadium, but had their 14-game home winning streak snapped in a Week 3 loss to undefeated Minnesota. Since the start of the 2014 season, Carolina has compiled a 14-7 ATS record in the previous 21 home contests, including a 9-3 ATS mark in their last 12 in the role of a home favorite.

SIX-PACK

The Panthers were swept by the Buccaneers in Newton’s second season back in 2012. However, Carolina has won each of its last six matchups with Tampa Bay since 2013, including a pair of double-digit blowouts last season. In the first meeting at Raymond James Stadium, the Panthers’ defense reached the end zone twice with a pair of scores in a 37-23 triumph as three-point road favorites. Carolina wiped out Tampa Bay to close out the regular season in a 38-10 rout as 10-point favorites in Week 17 as Newton tossed a pair of touchdowns.

TOTAL TALK

Carolina has cashed the OVER in three of four games this season, while allowing at least 21 points in all four contests. Tampa Bay has split the total in its four games, but its defense has given up at least 24 points each week in 2016. Both matchups went OVER the total last season, but two of the last three meetings at Bank of America Stadium have finished UNDER the total.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson weighs on this matchup, starting with struggles of Winston,” Through four games, Winston already has 10 turnovers after having just 18 in 16 games last season as the Buccaneers are off to a 1-3 start. In fairness, Winston and the Buccaneers have had to face quality defenses with the losses coming to Arizona, Los Angeles, and Denver and the opening week win at Atlanta is holding up as a high quality result. The schedule isn’t any easier this week with a Monday night test in Charlotte ahead of the bye week with both Tampa Bay and Carolina sitting at 1-3 making this a critically important game on both sides.”

Nelson breaks down the numbers involving Carolina, who has played a loaded schedule so far, “In comparing the numbers this season, Carolina’s offense has actually been quite productive, gaining 5.7 yards per play and averaging 387 yards per game, considering they have faced elite Denver and Minnesota defenses in half of the games. The Carolina defense has allowed 6.0 yards per play with particular struggles in the passing game, surrendering 64 percent completions and injuries at each level of the defense have made it a challenge in a year when the team released its most prominent player on defense (Josh Norman) over the summer.”

PROPS – Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook

Tampa Bay
J. Winston – Total Gross Passing Yards O/U 267 ½ (-110)
J. Winston – Total Touchdown Passes O/U 1 ½ (Under -130)

Will Mike Evans score a touchdown?
YES +105
NO -125

Carolina
D. Anderson – Total Completions O/U 20 ½ (-110)
D. Anderson – Total Touchdown Passes O/U 1 ½ (-110)

G. Olsen - Total Receiving Yards O/U 69 ½ (-110)

FUTURES

Carolina began the season listed at 6/1 odds to return to the Super Bowl and 12/1 odds to capture the championship at Super Bowl LI in Houston. However, the Panthers have dropped to 25/1 odds to win the Super Bowl following the 1-3 start. Tampa Bay has a long way to go to have its odds lowered as the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook posted the Buccaneers at 300/1 to capture the title following four weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 51-70-4 42.15% -13000

O/U Picks 50-77-4 39.37% -17350

Triple Plays:..... 1 -4 - 1

MONDAY, OCTOBER 10

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at CAR 08:30 PM

TB +5.5 *****

O 45.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Close Calls - Week 5
October 11, 2016


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 5 of the NFL regular season.

Arizona Cardinals (-3½) 33, San Francisco 49ers (42½): Backing the dog and the ‘under’ looked promising early Thursday night as San Francisco had the ball and a 7-0 lead at the two-minute warning of the first half. On the next play, an interception changed the trajectory of the game as the Cardinals scored seconds later to tie the game. San Francisco fumbled the kickoff coming out of halftime to hand Arizona another short field score and after a three-and-out for the 49ers, Arizona was in the end zone again midway through the third quarter for a 21-7 advantage. San Francisco answered as the total reached 35 by the start of the fourth quarter. Arizona pulled away with a field goal on another short field and the ‘over’ was sealed with 4:44 to go as the Cardinals completed a touchdown drive to lead 31-14. Nine more points were added in the final two minutes as a game where both teams failed to top 300 yards of offense still wound up with 54 points.

Minnesota Vikings (-6) 31, Houston Texans 13 (39): The Vikings took a 24-0 lead early in the second quarter after a 79-yard punt return as the spread result had little drama in this matchup of division leaders. The total was still in play after a scoreless third quarter and even with a Minnesota touchdown early in the fourth, the game was sitting just ‘under’ at 31-6. A 3rd-and-8 conversion for the Texans with just over five minutes to go in the game may have been the difference as Houston added a late touchdown to flip the over/under result.

New England Patriots (-10) 33, Cleveland Browns 13 (47½): The Patriots took command of this game early as the heavy road favorite cover was rarely in doubt and the ‘over’ looked promising with 23 points in the first quarter. The Patriots added two more touchdowns to lead 30-7 just a few minutes into the second half, but a long scoring drought occurred with the uncompetitive game. Cleveland completed an 80-yard touchdown drive early in the final frame and went for two down by 17 in a play that eventually loomed large for the total. The conversion failed and the Patriots added a short field goal on its next possession to hit 46 with still nearly eight minutes to play. Charlie Whitehurst would leave the game for the Browns with Cleveland driving near midfield with about four minutes to go and on a 4th-and-3 play, Terrelle Pryor threw a deep ball down the middle. Egregious pass interference that would have put the Browns in easy field goal range was left uncalled and New England ran out the clock as the game stayed just ‘under’.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) 31, New York Jets 13 (49½): The Jets led this game until the final minute of the first half and still trailed only 17-13 as they held Pittsburgh to a third quarter field goal after a long punt return. Pittsburgh got past the favorite spread for the first time with an 80-yard drive completed with a touchdown on the first play of the fourth quarter. Underdog backers had some hope with a Pittsburgh fumble in the red zone later in the fourth quarter, but New York stalled near midfield and the Steelers added another touchdown to pad the final margin.

Detroit Lions (+3) 24, Philadelphia Eagles 23 (46): The Lions jumped out to a 14-0 lead on one of the best statistical defenses in the NFL and with a 21-7 edge late in the second quarter the dog cover and the ‘over’ were in good shape. The Eagles added a field goal before halftime and then took control in the second half, though still trailing 21-20 after settling for a short field goal midway through the third quarter. The Eagles again stalled and needed to kick in the fourth quarter, taking a 23-21 lead that was short of the road favorite spread and kept the total still just ‘under’. The Lions punted and as the Eagles had the ball near midfield looking to put the game away before the team’s first turnover of the season with just under three minutes to go. Detroit hit a 27-yard pass play on third down just after the two minute warning with an unnecessary roughness penalty tacked on and the Lions hit a field goal at 1:28 to take a 24-23 lead, with that kick enough to seal the ‘over’. Those hoping for the Eagles to break loose for a touchdown didn’t get much of an opportunity as Carson Wentz threw his first interception of the season taking a shot down the sideline on first down as the Lions won despite being soundly out-gained.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) 29, Chicago Bears 23 (45): The Colts were past the spread with a 19-13 lead heading into the fourth quarter, but a few minutes later it was Chicago up 23-19 with 10 points in the first eight minutes of the final frame as the ‘over’ and the underdog suddenly looked very promising. The Colts answered in just six plays with a 35-yard touchdown pass with under four minutes to go. The Bears were still in position to cover, but on first down Chicago fumbled and the Colts added a field goal to return to the six-point edge Indianapolis held at the beginning of the quarter. Chicago made a nice final drive but a holding penalty made the third and fourth down attempts long yardage plays and the Bears couldn’t convert, failing to cover as an underdog despite a 522-396 yardage edge.

Oakland Raiders (-3½) 34, San Diego Chargers 31 (51): The game with the highest total on the board was mostly a field goal contest in the first half as San Diego held a 10-9 edge. Scoring picked way up in a third quarter that featured 32 points as San Diego saw a 24-16 edge slip to a 27-24 deficit by the start of the fourth quarter. A terrible punt for the Chargers handed Oakland great field position and the Raiders looked poised for the favorite cover with a 34-24 edge, but San Diego went the length of the field to get back within three and then had the ball back with a chance to win or tie, reaching the Oakland 19-yard line with about three minutes to go. Stopped on second and third-and-short plays the Chargers lined up for a 36-yard field goal, but the attempt was botched as a good snap was mishandled by the holder, though most on the Chargers still wound up covering in another narrow escape for the Raiders.

Green Bay Packers (-6½) 23, New York Giants 16 (49½): Seven was the common number on this game most of the week and Green Bay had a 17-6 edge at the half, though the Giants made it just an eight-point deficit before the start of the fourth quarter. Green Bay settled for two short field goals to lead 23-9 with about six minutes to go in the game. Down 14, the Giants would spoil the cover for many with a somewhat controversial touchdown as Odell Beckham made a leaping grab at the back of the end zone. It was ruled a touchdown and withstood review with a very close call on whether his toe connected with the white of the backline. The Packers wound up converting a 3rd-and-10 play ahead of the two minute warning to run out the clock but most wound up with a push.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) 17, Carolina Panthers 14 (47): The Panthers took a 14-6 advantage late in the third quarter, but Tampa Bay quickly answered with a touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie the game heading into the fourth quarter. Carolina had back-to-back turnovers from Derek Anderson in the final frame including an interception on first-and-goal from the Tampa Bay 1-yard line to destroy an 81-yard drive. Tampa Bay missed its second field goal of the game on the next possession. The Buccaneers forced a punt to get the ball back with less than two minutes remaining and embattled kicker Roberto Aguayo nailed a 38-yard field goal as time expired to seal the minor upset with Tampa Bay aided by a 4-0 turnover edge despite usually being on the wrong side of the turnover margin this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Underdogs to Watch - Week 6
October 12, 2016


Week 5 wasn't a great week for big underdogs in the NFL as only the Atlanta Falcons were able to come away with an outright victory. Going into Denver and giving the Broncos their first loss of the year was huge for Atlanta, especially considering they had just beaten the Panthers the week before. The Falcons look to be the class of the NFC South this year, but they find themselves on this list again as the conclude a brutal three-game stretch with a game in Seattle this week.

They are just one of seven teams that qualify as underdogs of +4 or more and it's time to break down who's got the best chance of the outright upset.

Sportsbook.ag Week 6 Underdogs that Qualify

Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5); ML (+360)
Miami Dolphins (+8); ML (+300)
San Francisco 49ers (+7.5); ML (+270)
Cleveland Browns (+7); ML (+265)
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5); ML (+210)
Dallas Cowboys (+4); ML (+170)
New York Jets (+8); ML (+290)

My obligatory mention of the Cleveland Browns (+265) this week starts off the feature, and they might actually get some support on the ML this week on the road in Tennessee. They've still got to show me that they can break that goose egg first before I seriously consider a ML wager, but don't be surprised to see if that line comes down by Sunday.

What stands out about the rest of the teams on this list is the fact there are plenty of +7 or more underdogs this week. Obviously that makes it it a little tougher to find a dog that can win outright, especially considering all of them except Miami are on the road. I've already touched on Atlanta's tough date with Seattle, but the Bengals are in Foxboro to take on the Patriots in Tom Brady's first home game since returning, and neither matchup is that appealing.

Atlanta's run of late in beating Denver and Carolina the last two weeks has been impressive, and their offense is tops in the NFL, but it's got to be only a matter of time before this brutal stretch of the schedule catches up with the Falcons and I believe we could see that this week as they travel up to Seattle.

Dallas might be the most obvious choice for an outright victory given they are the only underdog on this list under a touchdown, but sending that rookie duo in the backfield to Lambeau Field for the first time is no easy task. The Cowboys have already received the bulk of the early action on the spread and ML, but they are another underdog I'm going to have to pass on for the ML. That leaves us with a couple of ugly underdogs that have largely disappointed so far in 2016 in the teams from Miami, San Francisco, and New York.

Miami (+300) is the lone home team in this scenario this week and they've got the tough task of beating a Steelers team that has dominated their past two foes. The Steelers outscored KC and NYJ by a 74-27 margin the past two weeks, and are back to being a public darling that everyone loves to back.

That's the story this week as they head to South Beach, but this might turn into one of those tough “trap” spots for the Steelers as they've got a huge showdown with the Patriots next week and they could easily have one eye on that contest.

Furthermore, this is the 2nd of four straight home games for the Miami Dolphins, and if they are going to have a chance to save their season, they've got to get a win this week. At 1-4 SU, the Dolphins realize was a loss this week would do for their campaign and I've got to believe that we will see Miami's best effort to date here.

Of the other two teams mentioned, San Francisco (+270) looks to be the better play even with it being an early 10 am PST start for them in Buffalo. But the 49ers have made the move to Colin Kaepernick at QB and given all the headlines he's made for his protests, putting him in the lineup could serve as a rallying cry for the 49ers.

Buffalo's stock is a little too high at the moment after three straight victories and with two straight divisional games on deck and a tough four-game stretch overall ahead of them, Rex Ryan's bunch could be a little “fat” in reading their press clippings this week and figuring they've just got to show up to get the W.

[StarDust Bum]

Jets place WR Eric Decker on IR, season likely over
October 12, 2016

NEW YORK (AP) The New York Jets have placed wide receiver Eric Decker on injured reserve with a partially torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder, likely ending his season.

Decker was inactive the past two weeks after initially being injured at Buffalo in Week 2 and the shoulder worsening at Kansas City the following week. He would have to sit out at least eight weeks, but is expected to have season-ending surgery.

It's a huge blow to the Jets, who have struggled on offense after a terrific season a year ago with Decker, fellow receiver Brandon Marshall and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the way.

Decker had nine catches for 194 yards and two touchdowns in three games.

The Jets signed cornerback Nick Marshall off Jacksonville's practice squad Wednesday to fill Decker's roster spot.

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Panthers QB Newton returns to practice, takes 1st-team reps
October 12, 2016

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has returned to practice and took reps with the first-team offense after missing Monday night's game against Tampa Bay with a concussion.

Newton, wearing a helmet and a red No. 1 practice jersey, threw passes and joked with teammates in the huddle Wednesday before taking snaps during the first 20 minutes of practice that were open to the media. Newton threw the ball around and jogged during the walk-through portion of practice.

Panthers coach Ron Rivera has not said if he expects the league's reigning MVP to play Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.

Carolina (1-4) is marred in a three-game losing streak.

Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart, who has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury, also was at practice.

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Browns rookie QB Kessler practicing
October 12, 2016

BEREA, Ohio (AP) Browns rookie quarterback Cody Kessler still has discomfort when he throws, but says he's planning to play this week against Tennessee.

Kessler sustained an injury to his chest when he was hit hard in Sunday's loss to New England. Kessler threw during the team's walk-through on Wednesday and will practice.

Kessler said he's day-to-day with the injury, but hopes to be ready to face the Titans.

Josh McCown is returning to practice after breaking his left collarbone in Week 2. McCown gives coach Hue Jackson a viable option if Kessler can't go.

Also, Browns starting left guard Joel Bitonio suffered a foot injury and the team said he ''will miss an extended period of time.'' Bitonio has played every snap in all five games for the winless Browns, who have been stung by injuries to key players.

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Chiefs' Houston cleared for workouts
October 12, 2016

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston has been cleared to resume football activity for the first time since having surgery to repair the ACL in his left knee in February.

Chiefs trainer Rick Burkholder said Wednesday that Houston visited Dr. James Andrews on Oct. 3, the day after a loss in Pittsburgh, and was given clearance to do football-related workouts.

The Chiefs were off last week.

Houston cannot be removed from the physically unable to perform list until next week, so the four-time Pro Bowl linebacker must continue to do his workouts away from the rest of the team.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid said he will evaluate Houston on a day-by-day basis, but acknowledged he could join practices next week. There still is no timetable for his return to games.

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Books, Public draw in Week 5
October 10, 2016

You have to hand it to the betting public in Sunday's Week 5 NFL action for knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. The day ended up being an overall wash for both the sports books and bettors, which is actually a win for the bettors, but it was pretty impressive how they had the foresight to bail one of their favorite teams and came out a winner.

The Broncos came off a Super Bowl championship and started the season 4-0 while also covering the spread in their last six games. The public loves siding with winners and they ride streaks. Denver's win over Tampa Bay last week was one of the most one-sided bet games of the week. But in Week 5, they jumped ship and hopped aboard the Falcons wagon, and they we're right as Atlanta won 23-16 at Mile High, a score that doesn't really detail the true wipe out it was.

"Yeah, they love the high octane offenses," Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said of average Joe betting approach. "Whoever thought the public would fall in love with Matt Ryan? He wasn't even drafted in a lot of fantasy leagues."

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay expanded more on why Denver might have been dumped by it's regular supporters at the bet windows saying, "They just don't go with defensive teams, they never have. It's the high scoring teams that get them excited, because they want the best possibility of having an easy blowout with their bets."

Sharp money had bet the Falcons from +6 to +4 during the week and when it was announced that starting QB Trevor Siemian wouldn't start on Saturday, there wasn't much of an adjustment to the number because rookie back-up Paxton Lynch wasn't considered much of a drop off.

Kornegay, a die-hard Broncos fans, was impressed with what he saw out of the Falcons.

"The Falcons were very physical and held their own on both sides of the ball," he said. "They protected well and they got a nice pass rush in. I was kind of surprised their offensive line kept the Broncos pass rush in check."

Even though the Vikings are a defensive team, and definitely not sexy offensively, the betting public stayed on board, believing in them far more than they did the Texans on the road. They laid -6 and -7 and cashed with a 31-13 win. They also laid -10 with the Patriots at Cleveland in Tom Brady's triumphant return as he threw for over 400 yards in a 33-13 win. The Steelers (-9.5) were also a popular bet on parlays and they beat the Jets 31-13.

The only game the public needed to cash a bunch of four-team parlays in the morning was the Eagles laying -3.5 at Detroit. In another show of how the fickle public operates, they had bet the Steelers heavy in Week 3 action against the Eagles, a game Philly dominated 34-3. It sold them, and they had to wait two weeks to bet the Eagles, waiting through the Week 4 bye. And they came strong to the windows. The Eagles were the most sided bet game of the week -- sharps liked them too -- and it became the biggest decision for the books among the first 11 games. The Lions tried to give a 21-7 lead away, but came away with the 24-23 win which paid +165 on the money-line.

"The Lions winning was our best decision of the day," said Kornegay. "It felt like everyone in the house had a ticket on the Eagles of some kind. Every time the Eagles did something positive the entire crowd roared."

After getting a favorable decision with the Raiders failing to cover -3.5 in their 34-31 home win against the Chargers, the books were showing a win for the day but all the risk was tied into the Packers and Over, with a big emphasis on the Over.

"If tonight's game goes Over (50), we will end up a small loser on the day," Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick said prior to the Sunday night kickoff where the Packers were 7-point home favorites over the New York Giants.

The game stayed 'under' but but it landed on the spread with the Packers 23-16 win. Sharp money took +7.5 earlier in the week got paid and all the other spread bets got a refund, which hurt the books who didn't kill any of the live parlays going into either side. Parlays from the day reduced down and both sides of the teaser won.

"Disaster," was all William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich replied with in a text.

On the day, favorites went 6-5-1 against the spread with four underdogs winning outright and the totals were split at 6-6.

Way to go bettors, you've had the books on the ropes for the past couple of weeks. Keep at it, stay focused and get your game plan of attack ready for week 6.

[StarDust Bum]

Broncos-Chargers Capsule
October 12, 2016

DENVER (4-1) at SAN DIEGO (4-1)

Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST, CBS, NFL Network

OPENING LINE - Broncos by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Denver 4-1, San Diego 3-2

SERIES RECORD - Broncos lead 63-49-1

LAST MEETING - Broncos beat Chargers 27-20, Jan. 3, 2016

LAST WEEK - Broncos lost to Falcons 23-16; Chargers lost to Raiders 34-31

AP PRO32 RANKING - Broncos No. 5, Chargers No. 27

BRONCOS OFFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (16), PASS (25).

BRONCOS DEFENSE - OVERALL (6), RUSH (22), PASS (3).

CHARGERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (20), PASS (4).

CHARGERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (8), PASS (27).

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Broncos will be without coach Gary Kubiak, who has ''complex migraine condition.'' Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis is serving as interim head coach. ... Trevor Siemian expected to return as QB after rookie Paxton Lynch struggled against Falcons. ... Broncos have won 15 consecutive division road games, longest such streak in NFL history. ... Chargers have lost 10 straight AFC West games going back to 2014. ... Chargers coach Mike McCoy on hot seat after team found another way to lose in 34-31 setback at Oakland, when rookie holder Drew Kaser mishandled snap on potential game-tying field goal with 2:07 left. ... Chargers are 24-31 overall since hiring McCoy, GM Tom Telesco in January 2013. ... Chargers are 5-16 since John Spanos was promoted to president/football operations. Spanos is son of team chairman Dean Spanos, grandson of owner Alex Spanos. ... Chargers face uphill battle in getting $1.1 billion public handout for new downtown stadium via Nov. 8 ballot measure that would raise hotel occupancy tax. Fantasy tip: Chargers TE Antonio Gates returned from missing two games with hamstring injury, caught four passes for 30 yards, TD.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Action
October 11, 2016


NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
Denver Broncos (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) at San Diego Chargers (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS)

We've already reached Week 6 in the NFL and that means that we will see much more divisional action as teams try to separate themselves.

The card begins with an AFC West showdown as the snake-bitten San Diego Chargers try to finally close out a game strong against the division-leading Denver Broncos.

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Denver (-3.5); Total set at 45.5

San Diego enters this week with a 1-4 SU record but they could very easily be 4-1 or even 5-0 SU right now.

The Chargers choked away a 21-point lead to lose in OT Week 1, gave up a game-winning TD in the final 90 seconds to the Colts in Week 3, choked away a 14-point lead with six minutes left vs. New Orleans, and missed a game-tying FG in the final minutes last week because of a botched snap.

They've lost three in a row by a combined eight points and you know that frustrating has to be at an all-time high in that San Diego locker room right now.

Denver suffered their first loss of the year last week as the Paxton Lynch era in Mile High might have officially begun. Lynch didn't look completely ready for the starters role in the 23-16 home loss to Atlanta, and reports indicate that he'll be back in the backup role this week as Trevor Siemian will return to face the Chargers.

That's got to be good news for Broncos fans this week, but San Diego has always played them tough regardless of who was playing QB and with the point spread hovering around a field goal, we could see another tight Chargers game this week.

Teams coming off their first loss after starting the season 3-0 SU or better can be a scary wager because there's always that unanswered question of how they'll react to a defeat. Being the defending Super Bowl champions you should expect the Broncos to handle it just fine, but going on the road in a short week to face a division rival that's desperate to get a win and close out a game well doesn't do them any favors.

In fact, as we get closer to kick-off, I expect many recreational NFL bettors to simply look at the standings, remember that Denver are the champs and have a great defense and have no problem laying the small number on the road.

However, as I discussed earlier, the Chargers have found ways to be in every game they've played this year and have then found different ways to blow it.

It's only a matter of time for teams like that to finally put it all together for the full 60 minutes, and knocking off the defending champs that are actually a division rival could be that jumpstart the Chargers need right now.

San Diego's offense ranks 8th in the NFL right now with 373.2 yards per game and although they'll be in tough against the Broncos defense, the fact that the Chargers are 2nd in the NFL in points per game (30.4), does bode well for them here.

Last week, Atlanta became the first team to score more than 20 points against Denver and there is no doubt that the Chargers coaching staff have been reviewing that film to see what they can implement into their own gameplan.

As an organization, San Diego has lost the last five meetings with the Broncos and have to view this game as a good of a chance as any to snap that streak. There is no more Peyton Manning to deal with, it's a home game, and they'll be up against a rookie QB who is coming back from injury. Getting points in a spot like that has to be intriguing to bettors.

But when you see that San Diego is on a 5-0 ATS run in division games, a 7-1 ATS run when coming off a loss, and a 4-0 ATS run after allowing 30+ points, grabbing the points here, becomes the only play.

Best Bet: Take San Diego +3.5

[StarDust Bum]

Vikings look for respect
October 11, 2016

Should Vikings Be Getting More Love from Oddsmakers?

There is just one team in the NFL still with a zero in the loss column through Week 5 and that's the Minnesota Vikings.

So one might assume the Vikings are the Super Bowl betting favorites at BetOnline?

That would be false as Minnesota is +850 to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history. That trails the New England Patriots (+400), Pittsburgh Steelers (+600), Green Bay Packers (+800), a team the Vikings already have beaten this season, and Seattle Seahawks (+800).

The Vikings have started 5-0 for the fifth time in the last 20 years. On three of the previous occasions, they lost the NFC Championship Game. In 2003, they missed the playoffs after starting 6-0.

Minnesota wasn't supposed to be this good after losing starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater on the eve of the season to a very serious knee injury. The team also lost running back Adrian Peterson and left tackle Matt Kalil to season-ending injuries. And you can add another to the list as the Vikings announced on Monday that starting right tackle Andre Smith was being placed on injured reserve and was to have surgery to repair a triceps injury.

Many around the NFL thought that Vikings general manager Rick Spielman vastly overpaid in sending a 2017 first- and conditional fourth-round pick following the Bridgewater injury to the Philadelphia Eagles for quarterback Sam Bradford. Now that looks like a steal for the Vikings.

Bradford is completing 70.4 percent of his passes (second in the NFL) with six touchdowns and not a single interception in his four starts (backup Shaun Hill started Week 1 as Bradford learned the offense). That's good for a rating of 109.8 that's also second in the league. Sam Bradford for NFL MVP? The Vikings are only the second team since 1933 to start 5-0 without throwing an interception, joining the 1969 Los Angeles Rams.

As solid as Bradford has been, it's important to note that the defense hasn't lost any top players to season-ending injuries as that group has been stellar.

In Sunday's 31-13 win over Houston, the Texans were held to 214 yards and 1-for-13 third-down conversions. No team has scored more than 16 points on Minnesota. it is No. 4 in total defense (287.6 yards per game), No. 1 in scoring defense (12.6 ppg), No. 1 in turnover differential (plus-11), tops in yards per play against (4.4) and tied for first with 19 sacks.

The Vikings create pre-snap confusion by disguising blitzes and shifting players. Against Houston, they had four sacks, 13 quarterback hits and eight pass breakups. Sunday’s victory was the ninth game in a row, dating to last season, that the Vikings gave up 17 points or fewer.

Minnesota now has one of the best home-field advantages as its new U.S. Bank Stadium as it's already considered the loudest stadium in the NFL.

Can the Vikings finish as the NFC's top seed so the road to the Super Bowl through the NFC goes through Minneapolis?

The Vikings are on the bye this week. Their remaining schedule looks to be one of the easiest in the NFL.

In Week 7, they go to Philadelphia. The Eagles have been a surprise but may have been exposed in the Week 5 loss in Detroit. After that, there's no team on the schedule with a current winning record until Dec. 1 against Dallas, but that's at U.S. Bank Stadium. The only other game vs. a winning team is Week 16 at Green Bay.

Despite holding a one-game lead over Green Bay in the NFC North and already with a head-to-head win, the Vikings and Packers are both -110 on BetOnline NFL odds to win the division.