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Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
November 11, 2016
Las Vegas sports books took so much sharp action on the Browns inflated number Thursday night that they were able to withstand all the NBA favorite parlays attached to the Ravens and show a profit for the day. The public has been rolling with a few teams every week, and betting against the Browns has been part of the wining formula.
"I saw a tweet come out last night after the Browns loss that if you just bet against the Browns and 49ers along with betting on the Patriots and Cowboys, you would be 29-5 against-the-spread," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said Friday afternoon. "I didn't believe it, but I checked it out and its true. That's incredible."
The books avoided getting burned on the terrible Browns again by increasing the spread by nearly 30 percent of what it should have been and the plan worked. One down and three to go with the most popular popular teams and there is reason to suggest Sunday's Week 10 action might turn out better than the past three weeks.
"This weekend we have a good chance with the Cowboys and Patriots both playing tougher competition," Simbal said. 'Really, the entire card is outstanding with some great match-ups. It looks like the best lineup of the season so far."
The two teams that are each 7-1 ATS are still getting the most action at Simbal's seven books across town.
"The Cowboys and Patriots have been getting all the action so far," he said. "We opened the Steelers -3 and have gone down to -2.5 with mostly just smaller square action taking the Cowboys. When when went to -2.5, I thought we might get some sharp play on the Steelers, but it hasn't happened.
"We have 10-times more action on the Patriots than the Seahawks. We opened the Patriots -6.5 and it lasted only a minute until going to -7 and we're at -7.5 now and still no Seahawks action. This number can only go up. It may take +8 or +8.5 for us to get Seattle money."
William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported that 34 percent of all action wagered on the NFL this week has been on the Seahawks-Patriots game, and 75 percent of that action has been on the Patriots and 85 percent of the tickets written have also been on them.
"Another game we're not in a great spot with is the Falcons," Simbal said. "We had taken a large bet on the Eagles at pick 'em and as soon as it went to Eagles -1, they totally hit the Falcons hard pushing them to a -1.5 favorite. The Falcons are also one of the favorite public plays."
The most feared public parlay of Sunday for the books has the Patriots, Cowboys, Falcons and Packers, which the books can't make up when paying out 10/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,000). And they also have carryover risk the Ravens tied into those teams meaning 20/1 payouts will be ready to cash with 5-teamers if they all cover.
"The Broncos-Saints match-up looks like a fun game," Simbal said. "We opened the Saints -2 and sharps laid it and also -2.5, but since we've been at -3, we've had great two-way action."
The other half of the ugly-two is the 49ers, and like the Browns Thursday, the price is over-inflated. But betting against San Francisco pays off as they've failed to cover its last seven games.
"They're not betting the Cardinals (-14) yet. It's actually the least wagered game of the day, but it's a late start and it'll be popular among the three starting after the 1:00 p.m. ET games."
Simbal's also had action on two crummy match-ups.
"A couple of the not-so-attractive games on the day have received some attention with sharps moving the Bears from pick 'em to -2 (-120) and the Jaguars from +1 to -1 (-115)."
Things always turn in favor of the sports books as they increase spreads, but the public has a hot hand right now rolling the dice and they have no fear of any inflated number.
November 11, 2016
Las Vegas sports books took so much sharp action on the Browns inflated number Thursday night that they were able to withstand all the NBA favorite parlays attached to the Ravens and show a profit for the day. The public has been rolling with a few teams every week, and betting against the Browns has been part of the wining formula.
"I saw a tweet come out last night after the Browns loss that if you just bet against the Browns and 49ers along with betting on the Patriots and Cowboys, you would be 29-5 against-the-spread," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said Friday afternoon. "I didn't believe it, but I checked it out and its true. That's incredible."
The books avoided getting burned on the terrible Browns again by increasing the spread by nearly 30 percent of what it should have been and the plan worked. One down and three to go with the most popular popular teams and there is reason to suggest Sunday's Week 10 action might turn out better than the past three weeks.
"This weekend we have a good chance with the Cowboys and Patriots both playing tougher competition," Simbal said. 'Really, the entire card is outstanding with some great match-ups. It looks like the best lineup of the season so far."
The two teams that are each 7-1 ATS are still getting the most action at Simbal's seven books across town.
"The Cowboys and Patriots have been getting all the action so far," he said. "We opened the Steelers -3 and have gone down to -2.5 with mostly just smaller square action taking the Cowboys. When when went to -2.5, I thought we might get some sharp play on the Steelers, but it hasn't happened.
"We have 10-times more action on the Patriots than the Seahawks. We opened the Patriots -6.5 and it lasted only a minute until going to -7 and we're at -7.5 now and still no Seahawks action. This number can only go up. It may take +8 or +8.5 for us to get Seattle money."
William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported that 34 percent of all action wagered on the NFL this week has been on the Seahawks-Patriots game, and 75 percent of that action has been on the Patriots and 85 percent of the tickets written have also been on them.
"Another game we're not in a great spot with is the Falcons," Simbal said. "We had taken a large bet on the Eagles at pick 'em and as soon as it went to Eagles -1, they totally hit the Falcons hard pushing them to a -1.5 favorite. The Falcons are also one of the favorite public plays."
The most feared public parlay of Sunday for the books has the Patriots, Cowboys, Falcons and Packers, which the books can't make up when paying out 10/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,000). And they also have carryover risk the Ravens tied into those teams meaning 20/1 payouts will be ready to cash with 5-teamers if they all cover.
"The Broncos-Saints match-up looks like a fun game," Simbal said. "We opened the Saints -2 and sharps laid it and also -2.5, but since we've been at -3, we've had great two-way action."
The other half of the ugly-two is the 49ers, and like the Browns Thursday, the price is over-inflated. But betting against San Francisco pays off as they've failed to cover its last seven games.
"They're not betting the Cardinals (-14) yet. It's actually the least wagered game of the day, but it's a late start and it'll be popular among the three starting after the 1:00 p.m. ET games."
Simbal's also had action on two crummy match-ups.
"A couple of the not-so-attractive games on the day have received some attention with sharps moving the Bears from pick 'em to -2 (-120) and the Jaguars from +1 to -1 (-115)."
Things always turn in favor of the sports books as they increase spreads, but the public has a hot hand right now rolling the dice and they have no fear of any inflated number.
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