The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11

The Titans have been an above-average team at getting to the QB this season, ranking 10th in sack rate at 6.76 percent.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 52)

Titans' sack-happy ways vs. Colts' QB protection issues

Second place in the AFC North is up for grabs Sunday afternoon as the Titans' improving defense meets Andrew Luck and the high-octane Colts in Indianapolis. This game could very well be decided by how well Indianapolis can protect its franchise quarterback - and judging by the sack stats through the first 10 weeks of the season, Luck might find himself on the run - or worse, on his back - a healthy number of times.

The Titans have been an above-average team at getting to the QB this season, ranking 10th in sack rate at 6.76 percent. Veteran linebackers Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan led the way in that regard, combining for 15.5 sacks and 114 sack yards lost. And when it comes to pressuring quarterbacks in hostile territory, Tennessee is even better - recording the third-best road sack rate (8.57 percent) in the league.

Meanwhile, the Colts may possess one of the most dangerous offensive attacks in football, but keeping Luck upright has been a legitimate problem so far in 2016. Indianapolis has the highest sack rate against in the league at 8.68 percent; Indianapolis has yielded 33 sacks through the first 10 games, even after limiting Tennessee to just two in a 34-26 win over the Titans back on Oct. 24. Things should be much tougher for Luck and the Colts this time around.

Daily fantasy watch: Tennessee D/ST


Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 40.5)

Dolphins' red-zone stinginess vs. Rams' lack of scoring chances

Don't look now, but the Dolphins have rekindled their fading playoff hopes on the strength of a four-game winning streak that has surged them above the .500 mark for the season. At the same time, the Los Angeles Rams are clinging to postseason hopes by a thread despite escaping with a thrilling 9-6 win over the New York Jets last week. The Rams have struggled getting into the red zone all season, and things don't get any easier this weekend.

Much of the attention for the Miami resurgence has fallen on running back Jay Ajayi, but the Dolphins' defense deserves just as much credit - if not more. Miami enters the week ranked sixth in the NFL in fewest red-zone visits allowed per game at just 2.9; only Baltimore, Arizona, Minnesota, Green Bay and the Jets have been stingier. It's a modest improvement from the 2015 campaign, when the Dolphins allowed 3.1 opponent red-zone visits per game.

As for the Rams, well, they're about as bad as you would expect them to be given their widespread scoring troubles. Los Angeles is tied with the Ravens for the fewest red-zone scoring chances per game at 2.3; the Cleveland Browns are the only other team below 2.5. And if you can believe it, that rate is actually better than what the Rams put up in their last season in St. Louis, when they made just 2.2 red-zone visits per game. Ugh.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Todd Gurley


Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 46)

Texans' interior D-line troubles vs. Raiders' stacked O-line

The Raiders find themselves in a three-horse race atop the AFC West in what has shaped up as the best division race in the league. Coming into the week tied with the Kansas City Chiefs and a half-game ahead of the Denver Broncos, Oakland faces a stiff test in Week 11 against a Texans team that has the outright lead in the AFC South. But the Raiders have an enormous advantage it will look to exploit against visiting Houston this weekend.

Oakland has built one of the most impressive offensive lines in the game, a group that deserves much of the credit for the successes of quarterback Derek Carr, running back Latavius Murray and receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Three of the team's five starting O-linemen - LT Donald Penn, LG Kelechi Osemele and C Rodney Hudson - have Pro Football Focus grades of 84.8 or better. Simply put, the left side of the Raiders' offensive line is second only to the Dallas Cowboys' front.

Houston has elite ends to counter the Oakland periphery - DRE Jadeveon Clowney (79.2 PFF grade) and DLE Whitney Mercilus (83.9) are certainly capable of pressuring the quarterback. But the interior duo of DRT Vince Wilfork (45.7) and DLT Christian Covington (42.3) is among the worst in the league, and could make things incredibly difficult for the Texans' next level of defense, particularly against Oakland's stout rush attack.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Latavius Murray

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 11
November 18, 2016

The betting public in Las Vegas is jumping on their favorites teams in NFL Week 11 again hooking up Dallas, New England and whoever is playing the Browns and 49ers, and why not because that combination is 30-7 against-the-spread this season. But before we get into the line moves initiated from sharps and what the public is playing on their parlays, let's talk a bit about the cold front hitting the northeast this weekend.

We haven't had to pay too much attention to weather conditions the first 10 weeks of the season because its been relatively nice everywhere, for the most part. But snow fell in Denver on Thursday night (Broncos have a bye this week) and a couple of NFL games this weekend should have weather play a role in the outcome, in particular the totals.

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says the cold and snow isn't that big of deal when dealing the sides and totals, but when factoring in wind conditions, that's when it has a huge effect to the numbers. Its a good piece of advice to follow, and sharps are.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Steelers as 9.5-point favorites at Cleveland, a number inflated just because the books know who the masses are going to bet. The total opened at 49.5. But with a 40 percent chance of snow showers and gusting winds off the lake up to 30 mph and a wind chill of 28 degrees, the Steelers are now -8 and the total has been dropped to 44.5. No matter how good a QB is, 30 mph winds are a tall task to overcome.

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick said sharp action has the Browns once again, which isn't necessarily because of the weather, but because there was 2.5 to 3-points of value with them -- just like last Thursday against Baltimore. Stations opened the total Monday at 50 and large bets pushed them down daily to 44.5 by Friday which is what most books in town are showing.

The Westgate opened the Giants as six-point home favorites against the lowly Bears with a total at 47.5, and they've been bet up to -7.5 and the total has been bet down to 43.5 -- in part because of winds up to 25 mph with a wind chill at 38 degrees. McCormick says his books have taken lots of public action on the Giants.

Station books have also taken large bets on the Eagles-Seahawks 'under' from 46 down to 43. Not much wind is expected in Seattle, but there's a 40 percent chance of rain. The interesting part of that sharp move is that Philly has gone 'over' the total in all five of their road games and Russell Wilson looks healthy and comes off his best performance of the season at New England.

There's a 40 percent chance of light rain at San Francisco when the Patriots visit Sunday afternoon -- not much wind, but that's not why sharp money took the 49ers at +14 all the way down +12 which has a few books at -11.5 on Friday. Just like the inflated number against the Browns, the Patriots were inflated by 2.5 to 3-points just to make the public lay a bad number and attract large money on the value with the underdog. It worked. The 49ers ended and seven-game non-cover streak last week in a 23-20 last second loss at Arizona (-14).

McCormick said another sharp play among his 19 books in town was on the Vikings at home against the sluggish Cardinals. Minnesota is on a four-game losing streak, but large money bet them at +1, pick 'em, -1 and -1.5. They're currently the high Las Vegas number at -2 with a total at 40.

Stations top public plays are Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England, Seattle and the Giants, but bettors were thrown a loop last week as Dallas (8-1 ATS) was their only team to come through. Bettors are also low on cash.

"Low handles so far this week after last weeks big win for the books," said McCormick.

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 11
November 18, 2016

Week 10 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 30-30 SU, 27-31-1 ATS

Review: The early games turned out well with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Broncos all winning as underdogs. The late games not so much with San Diego and Pittsburgh falling short as home favorites.

Titans at Colts (-3, 53 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee
Record: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The AFC South race is still wide-open at the halfway point as Tennessee has played its way back into the pack. The Titans eclipsed the 35-point mark for the third straight week in last Sunday’s 47-25 home rout of the Packers as three-point underdogs. Tennessee keeps cashing OVER tickets on a consistent basis by hitting the OVER in seven consecutive games, including three in a row away from Nissan Stadium. The Titans have struggled against the Colts over the years by losing 10 straight meetings, including a 34-26 home defeat last month.

Indianapolis
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Colts are fresh off the bye week as Indianapolis held off Green Bay in its last contest, 31-26 as 7 ½-point underdogs. Indianapolis has yet to win back-to-back games this season, as two of its losses off a victory are by three points apiece to division foes Jacksonville and Houston. The Colts own a 2-1 SU/ATS record as a home favorite, one season after going 2-4 ATS when laying points at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is the fourth home total of 50 or higher this season for the Colts, as the UNDER is 2-1 in those contests.

Best Bet: Indianapolis -3

Cardinals at Vikings (-2 ½, 40) – 1:00 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 4-4-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Cardinals are one season removed from an NFC championship appearance as Arizona sits at .500 after nine games. Arizona edged San Francisco last week with a last-second field goal but failed to cover as 13 ½-point home favorites in a 23-20 victory. The Cardinals play five of their final seven games away from University of Phoenix Stadium as Arizona owns a 1-2 SU/ATS road mark with that lone win over the woeful 49ers. Arizona has dropped eight straight road matchups with Minnesota, while making its first trip to the Twin Cities since a 21-14 loss back in 2012.

Minnesota
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Vikings were in the discussion of receiving home-field advantage after a 5-0 start. However, Minnesota may be left out of the playoffs if it doesn’t get on track and snap its current four-game losing streak. The latest tumble by Minnesota happened in Washington last Sunday as the Vikings fell short in a 26-20 defeat to the Vikings. During this four-game skid, Minnesota has averaged 14 points per game, while losing three times in the favorite role. The Vikings are laying points this week as Minnesota has compiled an 8-2 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of the 2015 season.

Best Bet: Minnesota -2 ½

Bills at Bengals (-2 ½, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

Which Bills team will show up this week in Cincinnati? The one that won four straight games, including a shutout of the Patriots or the one that has lost three in a row? Buffalo has scored exactly 25 points in three consecutive contests (which is nearly impossible to do), but has allowed at least four touchdowns in each of those losses to Miami, New England, and Seattle. The Bills are in the midst of a five-game OVER streak, including three straight OVERS away from Buffalo.

Cincinnati
Record: 3-5-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

Amazingly, the Bengals still have a shot at winning the AFC North title in spite of going 1-3-1 in the last five games. Cincinnati hosts Pittsburgh and Baltimore in December, while traveling to Cleveland in three weeks. The Bengals were tripped up on Monday night by the Giants, 21-20 as Cincinnati has been held to fewer than 20 points in all five losses this season. Cincinnati owns a 2-1 SU/ATS mark at Paul Brown Stadium, while winning eight of its past 11 times in the role of a home favorite since 2015.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -2 ½

Ravens at Cowboys (-7 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore
Record: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Ravens have rebounded from a four-game skid to win back-to-back home divisional games against Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Baltimore has allowed 20 points or less in all five wins this season, while looking to go above .500 on the highway after losing its past two road contests to the Giants and Jets. The Ravens have lost five of their past six games against NFC foes, including an 0-2 SU/ATS mark this season in interconference action. Baltimore has never lost to Dallas in four lifetime matchups, including a 33-24 triumph to close out Cowboys Stadium in 2008.

Dallas
Record: 8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Cowboys will continue to keep rolling with rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback after Dallas edged Pittsburgh, 35-30 to win and cover its eighth consecutive game. Fellow rookie star Ezekiel Elliott busted the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in the last seven games with 114 yards, including the game-winning 32-yard touchdown scamper in the final seconds. Dallas has not been favored by more than 6 ½ points at home this season, but the Cowboys have cashed in three straight home games since losing the opener to the Giants. There has not been a look-ahead factor for Dallas prior to its annual Thanksgiving matchup, as the Cowboys have won 11 consecutive years in the final game before Turkey Day (6-5 ATS).

Best Bet: Baltimore +7 ½

Dolphins (-1 ½) at Rams – 4:05 PM EST

Miami
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Dolphins remained out west following its 31-24 comeback victory over the Chargers last Sunday to win their fourth straight game. Miami topped the 27-point mark for the fourth consecutive week as the Dolphins haven’t won a game this season when scoring 24 points or less. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four games, even though he hasn’t eclipsed the 260-yard mark passing. The Dolphins are listed as a road favorite for the first time since Week 2 of last season in a 23-20 defeat at Jacksonville as six-point chalk.

Los Angeles
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Rams finally pulled the plug on quarterback Case Keenum and are turning to top pick Jared Goff to revive an offense that ranks last in the league in points per game at 15.4. Los Angeles is coming off its second win this season in which they didn’t reach the end zone, knocking off the Jets, 9-6 as one-point favorites. The Rams are looking for their first home victory since Week 2 against Seattle, as Los Angeles has scored 10 points or less in five games this season.

Best Bet: Los Angeles +1 ½

Eagles at Seahawks (-6 ½, 50) – 4:25 PM EST

Philadelphia
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

The Eagles have had their share of problems on the road this season by losing four of five games away from Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia climbed above the .500 mark in last Sunday’s 24-15 home victory over Atlanta, but remains three games behind Dallas in the NFC East. In their past two road losses, the Eagles have lost by six points to the Cowboys and five points to the Giants, while not dropping a game by more than a touchdown this season.

Seattle
Record: 6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Seahawks’ offense is kicking into high gear by scoring 31 points in each of their last two victories against the Bills and Patriots. Seattle picked up a morsel of revenge for its Super Bowl loss two years ago against New England by holding off the Patriots, 31-24 as 7 ½-point underdogs. Russell Wilson put together his best game of the season by throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns, while picking up its second cover as an underdog this season. Seattle has won all four games at CenturyLink Field, but the Seahawks are 2-2 ATS at home.

Best Bet: Philadelphia +6 ½

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 11
November 18, 2016

Week 10 Recap

Total bettors saw a stalemate in last week’s 14-game slate (7-7) and a couple of contests had some fortunate or unfortunate endings. The Chargers led the Dolphins 10-7 at halftime and ‘under’ bettors (49) were confident with that score but turnovers and big plays contributed to 38 points in the final 30 minutes.

Another game that turned at halftime was the Arizona-San Francisco matchup. The Cardinals led 20-10 at the break and the ‘over’ (47) was on a great pace. Sure enough, the worst defense in the league stifled the Cardinals to three points in the second half and the game stayed ‘under’ the number as the pair combined for six field goals. Through 10 weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ holds the edge with a 79-67-1 (54%) record.

Keep an Eye On!

-- The Bears have scored 20 or more points once this season but the Giants have allowed 21.6 points per game at home this season.

-- Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season but all three ‘over’ winners took place on the road.

-- Including last week’s ‘over’ result versus Pittsburgh, the Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 games against AFC opponents.

-- Something has to give on the total between Kansas City (Under 7-2) and Tampa Bay (Over 6-3) when they meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

-- Detroit has seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 the last four years in the previous game before their annual Thanksgiving Day battle. The offense averaged 17 PPG during this span, which has resulted in a 1-3 SU record.

Divisional Action

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts outlasted the Titans 34-26 on the road in Week 7 and the ’over’ (48 ½) connected with a big fourth quarter surge (27 points). Bettors are starting at a total of 53 for the rematch and while that number seems inflated, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ based on recent form. Tennessee has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games and it’s averaging 31.7 PPG during this span. Indianapolis has allowed 28.4 PPG this season, which is ranked 29th in the league. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the season and they’ve also leaned heavily to high side in their last 10 games off the bye (7-3). Including the first meeting this season, the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last five between the pair. Lastly, every AFC South divisional matchup (6-0) has gone ‘over’ this season.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: This series has watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight and eight of the last 10 meetings. Despite being for offensive fireworks, Pittsburgh has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season and that includes a 3-1 mark on the road. Cleveland has watched the ‘under’ cash the last two weeks, largely due to its offensive struggles. The Browns weak defense (419 YPG) makes you believe Pittsburgh can put up a crooked number and you can certainly argue that the Cleveland offense can overachieve against a weak Steelers defense (380 YPG). However, some bettors have already bet into the ‘under’ and knocked the total from 49 ½ down to 45 as of Friday evening. Why? The latest weather reports are predicting a 40% chance of snow showers and wind gusts up 30 MPH, the latter being the bigger factor.

Headed West

Week 11 will featured three East Coast clubs playing in the Pacific Time Zone on Sunday. Including last week’s outcome between the Dolphins and Chargers, the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in these matchups. Three of the ‘under’ winners came from Arizona, who is a perfect 6-0 to the ‘under’ at home this season.

Coincidentally, all three of these totals have been knocked down and two of them due to possible poor weather, which was talked about in-depth in the weekly Vegas Money Moves piece.

Miami at Los Angeles: The Dolphins stayed on the West Coast this week as they look to pull off the California sweep after defeating San Diego last Sunday. The Rams defense (327 YPG) is a big step up in class for Miami, who could have two starters out on the offensive line. Los Angeles has the worst scoring offense (15.4 PPG) in the league and it would be surprising if rookie QB Jared Goff can improve on that number in his first NFL start.

New England at San Francisco: Even though rain is expected in the forecast for this matchup, can San Francisco really slow down New England? The Patriots were held to 24 last week but they’re still averaging 32 PPG since QB Tom Brady returned. San Francisco’s defense had it second-best performance of the season last week and still allowed 23 in a loss at Arizona. Knowing the Patriots visit the Jets next week and they’re coming off a tough loss to Seattle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get in and get out of this game healthy. Also, New England won’t have offensive weapons TE Rob Gronkowski or WR Chris Hogan available for Sunday.

Philadelphia at Seattle: This total has dropped from 46 to 43 due to the aforementioned weather reports. The ‘Hawks have put up 31 points in each of their last two games and the offense has played better at home. Philadelphia’s defense has been great at home (9.5 PPG) but very shaky on the road (24.4 PPG). Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at CenturyLink Field and the Eagles have gone 4-0-1 to the ‘over’ as visitors.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and of the three nights, Monday continues to be the best lean for the low side with a 7-3-1 record. Including this past Thursday’s result between Carolina and New Orleans, the ‘under’ as gone 17-14-1 this season.

Green Bay at Washington: This total is hovering between 49 and 50 points at most books and all signs on paper point to the high side. The Redskins have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 overall and that includes a 5-0 mark at FedEx Field. Green Bay enters this game on a 3-0 ‘over’ run and its surrendered 33, 31 and 47 points during this span. The Packers beat the Redskins 35-18 in the first round of the playoffs last year at D.C. and the ‘over’ (47 ½) was never in doubt. If you’re looking for an ‘under’ angle, the Green Bay defense is expected to be healthier this week and the Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their first two games versus NFC East foes this season.

Houston vs. Oakland (from Mexico City): Based on the total (46) and the tendencies we’ve seen from Houston, the number tells me that this game will play to the tempo of the Texans. Houston scored a season-high on the road last week when it beat Jacksonville 24-21 but seven of those points came from the defense. So with that effort, the offense has only scored 39 points in four games outside of Houston this season. We can’t dismiss the fact that Oakland has been a great ‘over’ team (7-2) based on a solid offense and weak defense. However, I believe the venue will play a factor and the high altitude (7,350 ft) could have both teams gassed in the second-half. For what it’s worth, Houston scored nine points at Mile High (Denver - 5,280 ft) in Week 7 and Oakland put up 15 and 14 in its last two trips to Colorado.

Fearless Predictions

I caught some luck last week as the Denver team total slid ‘over’ with a two-point conversion from its defense. That win made up for the dismal performance by Arizona in the second-half. After the dust settled, we turned a small profit ($190) and cut into the overall bankroll ($50). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tennessee-Indianapolis 52 ½

Best Under: Baltimore-Dallas 45

Best Team Total: Under Detroit 26 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 53 ½ Baltimore-Dallas
Under 55 Houston-Oakland
Over 33 ½ Philadelphia-Seattle

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
November 19, 2016

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Eagles are 10-0 ATS (13.10 ppg) since Dec 18, 2005 as a dog and on turf after they had more than 150 rushing yards last game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS (-12.15 ppg) since Dec 07, 2014 as a dog and after a game in which no receiver had at least 40% of their passing yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS (8.55 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 at home when AJ Green had at least seven receptions last game.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Redskins are 0-11 OU (-6.68 ppg) since Sep 16, 2002 at home after a home game where they allowed less than 80 rushing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Bears are 11-0 OU (10.68 ppg) since Dec 25, 2011 off a game as a favorite where they gained less than 300 total yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 0-11 OU as a home favorite off a game as a road dog in which they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 11
November 19, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

Week 10

Week 11

1) Baltimore +7 (596)
2) Miami -2.5 (516)
3) Tennessee +3 (509)
4) Minnesota PK (499)
5) Tampa Bay +7.5 (434)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 11 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
New Orleans (+3.5) 155 Carolina (-3.5) 74
Tennessee (+3) 509 Indianapolis (-3) 280
Jacksonville (+6.5) 330 Detroit (-6.5) 282
Tampa Bay (+7.5) 434 Kansas City (-7.5) 131
Chicago (+7.5) 283 N.Y. Giants (-7.5) 227
Arizona (PK) 333 Minnesota (PK) 499
Buffalo (+2.5) 394 Cincinnati (-2.5) 292
Baltimore (+7) 596 Dallas (-7) 315
Pittsburgh (-8) 392 Cleveland (+8) 172
Miami (-2.5) 516 Los Angeles (+2.5) 331
New England (-13) 277 San Francisco (+13) 187
Philadelphia (+6.5) 300 Seattle (-6.5) 412
Green Bay (+2.5) 363 Washington (-2.5) 405
Houston (+5.5) 201 Oakland (-5.5) 430

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
8 3-2 11-23-1 32%
9 2-3 13-26-1 33%
10 0-5 13-31-1 29%

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Packers at Redskins
November 19, 2016

Green Bay (4-5 straight up, 4-4-1 against the spread) has lost three straight and four of its last five and will have the tall task of getting back on track at FedEx Field Sunday night against Washington (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS), who have lost only once (5-1-1) in its last seven games.

As each teams power rating go in different directions, the Packers find themselves as underdogs for just the second time this season as Washington is -3 (EV) with a total set at 50.

There was some comfort with Packers nation that when wide receiver Jordy Nelson returned this season that the offense would get back to dominating, but Nelson still doesn't appear to be fully recovered as far as speed goes. He's not blowing by defenders as we've all been accustomed to despite leading the team with 50 recptions, 635 yards and 8 touchdowns.

The real problem has been the running game, or lack of it. Coverage has been easier for teams facing Green Bay because they don't have to respect the run. Running back Eddie Lacy (ankle) hasn't played since Week 6 and he's still the teams leading rusher (360 yards). The active leading rusher is quarterback Aaron Rodgers (226 yards) and his three rushing TDs are the only Packers TDs on the ground all season. This is Week 11, that is horrendous, and a huge part of their demise.

Green Bay claimed RB Christine Michael off waivers earlier in the week after he was cut in Seattle, which could help down the road. But a player that has been dumped three separate times between two teams shouldn't be considered the savior. Still, he should be better than the alternative of Ty Montgomery and and James Starks.

The biggest boost this week will be the return of LB Clay Matthews who has missed the Packers 1-4 run the past five weeks with a hamstring injury. Statistically, the Packers defense hasn't been that bad. They allow only 84.4 yards per game on the ground (No. 4) and 339 YPG overall (No. 10). They have a respectable 23 sacks, but have created only 10 turnovers. Matthews should add a little extra spice of intensity for the defense.

The most encouraging note for the Packers (4-5) is that no one is running away with the NFC North as the Lions and Vikings each sit at 5-4. They can regroup, make a run, and still win the division. But they better start their move fast.

As for the Redskins (5-3-1), they sit third in the NFC East behind Dallas (8-1) and the Giants (6-3), but they've got something special going on with an offense that averages 407 YPG (No. 4), which is the highest average in team history. They've had only nine 3-and-out offensive series this season, the least in the league, as is their 25 total punts.

After missing last week, WR DeSean Jackson (head contusion) has been upgraded to 'probable,' which is great news for the offense. The injury to watch is with long snapper Nick Sundberg (back) who is still 'questionable' for Sunday. If he is unable to play, QB Colt McCoy would take over the duties which should be interesting to watch on special teams.

LINE MOVEMENT

The South Point in Las Vegas opened Washington -2.5 and it was quickly bet up to -3 on Monday until +3-flat was attractive and bet on Thursday. The only book in town that uses flat numbers is still sitting at -2.5, which is kind of telling. No respected money is laying -2.5 enough to force them back to -3, the most key number in the NFL.

OVER THE WORD IN D.C.

All five of the Redskins home games have gone 'over' the total with an average score of 24.6 to 25. Overall, they've gone 'over' in seven of nine games this season and 16-5 to the 'over' in their last 21.

RECENT MEETINGS

These two teams met in last year's Wild Card playoff game last season at Landover with Washington (-2) jumping out to an 11-0 lead early in the second quarter, but then Green Bay would go to to outscore them 35-7 the rest of the way for a 35-18 win, which went 'over' the total of 47.

The previous meetings was in 2013 with Green Bay (-9) winning 38-20 at Lambeau Field and going 'over' the total of 48.5 points.

SNF PROPS (WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK)

-- Total completions by Aaron Rodgers: 26.5
-- Total TD passes by Aaron Rodgers: 2
-- Total receiving yards by Jordan Nelson: 80.5

-- Gross passing yards by Kirk Cousins: 292.5
-- Total TD passes by Kirk Cousins: 1.5 OV -175
-- Total receiving yards by Jordan Reed 65.5
-- Total sacks by both teams: 4.5 UN -120

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate posted Week 12 early lines with the Redskins getting +6.5 at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day and the Packers catching three points at Philadelphia for the Monday night matchup.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 20

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NFL Underdogs: Week 11 pointspread picks and predictions
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Titans QB Marcus Mariota is completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, to go along with a crazy good 122.1 passer rating.

I turned 30 this week.

I suppose that means I should start to realize that my dream of making the NBA as the second coming of Steve Nash is finally dead.

Seriously though, turning 30 years old didn’t really bother me the way I had seen it affect others. Maybe that has something to with the fact I was thrown a killer surprise party by my girlfriend, complete with oyster shucking and martini bar.

Or maybe, it’s because I got a great birthday present from the gambling gods, with my underdog picks going 3-0 SU and ATS on my big Three-Ohhh.

Considering dogs went 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS last week, I would have felt pretty terrible if I couldn’t nail down at least three of them. So, kind of like a surprise party you had a feeling was coming, while not completely unexpected, the results are more than welcome.

Not as surprising, is how bad the AFC South has been this season.

The Tennessee Titans, at 5-5, are still in contention for the division title and sit in second place behind the 6-3 Houston Texans. They face a critical road game at 4-5 Indianapolis, one the Titans need to win if they want to keep pace.

Tennessee has won four of its last six games thanks to two things: running the football and the meteoric rise of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota.

While it should be noted one of those losses was a 34-26 defeat as 4-point home favorites at the hands of the Colts, Mariota has been tremendous during that six-game stretch. He's completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, to go along with a crazy good 122.1 passer rating.

Meanwhile, DeMarco Murray is enjoying Music City, giving the Titans the league’s third-best rush offense at 145.2 yards per game. He should continue to roll this week, matching up against a Colts rush defense that gives up 114.9 yards per game.

Let’s not forget the Titans rank fifth in the NFL in sacks with 26 and go against a brutal Colts offense line that has left Andrew Luck battered, allowing a NFL worst 33 sacks this season.

I think the Titans continue to surprise this week. Try to look shocked when they cover.

Pick: Titans +3


Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

These teams are mirror images of each other and not in a good way. Both were considered NFC contenders, have top-ranked defenses, and are currently struggling.

After starting the season a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS, the Vikings have dropped four in a row both SU and ATS, scoring just 14 points per game in the process.

They rank dead last in total offense and rushing yards, which seems insane when we are talking about the Vikings, but that’s what happens when you lose several offense lineman to injury. Oh, and that Adrian Peterson guy is missed pretty sorely right about now.

Meanwhile, although Arizona is coming off a win, it was an uninspiring 23-20 home victory over a San Francisco squad that was a 13.5-point dog and is just 1-1-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in the last three games.

So while this appears to be an even matchup in the futility department, I have a little more faith in the Cardinals, mainly because their problems seem fixable.

Arizona’s big issue this season has been turnovers. The Cardinals rank seventh in total offense, but 20th in points per game at 22.4. With all other things being equal, the Cardinals have the much better offense and if they can hold on to the ball, they not only cover but win outright.

Pick: Cardinals +2.5


Green Bay Packers (+3) at Washington

Talk about not seeing it coming. The Green Bay Packers' struggles could be the stunner of the season so far.

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like the quarterback we all know, there's been a revolving door of running backs in Green Bay, and the Packers have lost three in row, allowing 37 points per game in that stretch. They're going up against the fourth-ranked offense in the NFL Sunday night. Did I mention they head into Washington, which has revenge on its mind after the Packers knocked the Redskins out of the playoffs last season? No. Well, there's that too.

Yet I still like the Packers. Surprise!

This is mostly a “can they actually be that bad?” play, plus I think Rodgers wants to show everyone he’s still got it on national television.

Pick: Packers +3


Last Week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 18-11-1 ATS (62%)

[StarDust Bum]

Essential Week 11 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Seahawks have been bet from the opening number of -4.5 to the current number of -6.5 for Sunday's NFC showdown with the Eagles.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (7.5, 44.5)

* A date with Cleveland couldn't come at a better time for reeling Pittsburgh, which also has lost three in a row on the road and plays four of its next five away from home. While Ben Roethlisberger and the offense managed to get untracked in last week's 35-30 home loss, the defense permitted the Cowboys to put together a pair of late 75-yard touchdown drives. Frustrated by his team's inability to stop the opposition, coach Mike Tomlin is taking what appears to be a desperate measure by moving veteran linebacker James Harrison into the starting lineup. Harrison was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year in 2008, but he's now 38 years old, already has come out of retirement once and has made only 19 tackles on the season.

* For a team that has featured an NFL-high 26 different starting quarterbacks since 1999, it hardly comes as a surprise that first-year coach Hue Jackson has had a revolving door under center. Jackson made a surprise move last week, pulling rookie Cody Kessler in the third quarter in favor of veteran Josh McCown with the Browns trailing by six points, but he is turning back to third-round pick Kessler to face Pittsburgh. "I came here ... to solve this quarterback issue that's been here," Jackson told reporters Thursday. "Is the guy on our roster now? We're going to find that out." Jackson also needs to solve major issues on his defense, which is yielding 30.1 points and 419.1 yards -- ranking 31st in each category.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North battle as 9-point road favorites and that number has dropped to 7.5. The total opened at 49.5 and as of Saturday morning has been bet down 5 points to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
* Under is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45)

* Baltimore's top-ranked run defense will take aim at rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas' offensive line after holding the Steelers (36 yards on 18 carries) and Browns (33 on 13) to 2.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Joe Flacco is taking more chances down the field under new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt in the last two games while throwing four touchdown passes. Receiver Breshad Perriman helped in the deep passing game by recording 64 yards on three catches, including a 27-yard TD, against Cleveland.

* Elliott leads the NFL with 1,005 rushing yards and piled up 114 and two TDs on the ground while adding 95 receiving yards and another score in last week's win. The Ohio State product already went up against three of the top 11 run defenses in the league (Green Bay, New York Giants and Chicago) and totaled 348 rushing yards in those contests. Prescott is playing mistake-free football with 14 TD passes and two interceptions but is not being overly conservative while averaging 8.35 yards per attempt.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened the game between divisional leaders as 7-point home favorites and the total at 45. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither number has moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47.5)

* T.J.Yeldon leads the rushing game with a paltry 285 yards on 79 carries and has combined with newcomer Chris Ivory for just two rushing scores on the season. Bortles, who broke franchise records with over 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns last season, threw a pick-six on the opening drive of the Jags' 24-21 loss to Houston last week, the third time this season he's thrown an interception on Jacksonville's first possession. Look for defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who has become a clear favorite in the race for defensive rookie of the year while shutting down a litany of star receivers throughout his first season, to shadow Detroit's Marvin Jones.

* Stafford, completing 67.3 percent of his passes on the season, continues to be one of the league's best at directing come-from-behind wins -- all five of Detroit's victories have been the result of game-deciding drives by Stafford. Since 2011, Stafford has 23 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and he reportedly is looking to parlay that success into a $25 million deal at year's end. The Lions have been fairly stingy on defense, allowing 22.9 points a game, (14th in league). Top linebacker DeAndre Levy, who has battled several leg injuries, was back at practice but he is still listed as doubtful to make his first return since Week 1.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites and were briefly faded down to 6 mid-week before rising back to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and has inched up half point late in the week to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 52.5)

* The maturation of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota - who has benefited from the addition of running back DeMarco Murray -has been the story for Tennessee’s flourishing offense. Mariota has passed for 21 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and he and Murray head the league’s third-ranked rushing attack. The Titans have struggled to stop the pass recently, allowing 300 or more yards through the air in four of the last five games - including a season-high 341 in a 34-26 loss to the Colts in Week 7.

* Indianapolis has reasonable balance on offense, with running back Frank Gore putting together a decent season and Andrew Luck throwing far fewer interceptions than a year ago. The Colts have had difficulty keeping Luck upright, however, as he has been sacked 33 times - a concern against a Titans team with 28 sacks to its credit. Indianapolis’ downfall has been its defense, which ranks 31st against the pass and 22nd versus the run while forcing only eight turnovers - fifth-fewest in the league.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened the week as 3-point home favorites against their divisional rival and that number held before fading half point to 2.5 Friday afternoon. The total opened at 53 and quickly dropped to 52 Sunday evening and held most of the week before returning to 53 Friday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Titans last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
* Titans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)

* Tyrod Taylor leads all NFL quarterbacks with 362 yards on the ground and is the only signal-caller with at least 4,500 yards passing (4,804) and 900 rushing (930) since the start of 2015. Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander is tied for the league lead with 10 sacks while wide receiver Marquise Goodwin ranks fifth with an average of 18.8 yards per catch. The Bills are 16-11 in games following their bye week, but Rex Ryan is just 2-6 in such contests during his career as a head coach.

* Linebacker Rey Maualuga (fibula) also was a full participant in practice on Thursday after missing Monday's loss to the New York Giants. A run specialist, he would be a welcome addition to the lineup on Sunday as Buffalo ranks second in the league in rushing offense (155 yards). Jeremy Hill has scored three touchdowns on the ground in as many games and ranks second in the league since 2014 with 26 rushing scores.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened up as 3-point home favorites and that was quickly bet down half point to 2.5 and that number has held firm since Monday. The total opened at 47 and remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Bengals are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)

* Tampa Bay scored a season-high 36 points against the Bears thanks to four takeaways – a common theme in the team’s success. The Buccaneers have forced 11 turnovers in their four wins and just four in their five defeats. The running game has been practically non-existent in the last two games, and quarterback Jameis Winston could use some help on the ground against a tough pass rush and secondary.

* The Chiefs’ offense has foundered over the last two weeks, but the defense has made up for it by continuing to force turnovers as an impressive rate. Kansas City leads the league with 22 takeaways, including at least two in each of its five straight wins. Smith rarely puts up flashy numbers, but he continues to get the job done as he has recorded eight touchdown passes against three interceptions, while Spencer Ware has been effective both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened the week as 7.5-point home favorites and that number has remained all week. The total opened at 44.5 and like the spread remains fine the bettors and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 40)

* David Johnson was limited to 55 yards on 19 carries last week but gained 46 on five receptions to become the first player since Indianapolis' Edgerrin James in 2005 to record 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his team's first nine games. The product of Northern Iowa ranks second in the league with 1,213 scrimmage yards and is one of three players in NFL history (Gale Sayers and Abner Haynes) to record 15 rushing touchdowns, five receiving scores and a kickoff-return TD in his first two seasons. Carson Palmer, who has eclipsed 300 passing yards in three straight contests, has thrown for seven touchdowns with just one interception in four career games against Minnesota.

* Sam Bradford has excelled at home this season, throwing six touchdown passes without an interception while posting a 111.3 rating in four games. The Vikings changed kickers this week, releasing Blair Walsh and signing Kai Forbath, who split last season between Washington and New Orleans. Stefon Diggs had 13 receptions for 164 yards against the Redskins after making 13 catches for 80 yards versus Detroit in Week 9, becoming the first player in NFL history with at least 13 catches in consecutive games.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites at home. The total opened at 41.5 and has been faded all the way to 40. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Cardinals last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games following a ATS loss.
* Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-7.5, 43)

* Chicago's difficult season got even worse this week after wideout Alshon Jeffery was suspended four games for performance-enhancing drugs, with Cutler likely turning to tight end Zach Miller (team-leading 44 receptions) as the focus of the passing game. Jordan Howard recorded his fourth 100-yard rushing performance on Sunday, one shy of the franchise record for a rookie (Beattie Feathers in 1934, Rashaan Salaam in 1995). Linebacker Pernell McPhee promised to get Manning dirty as the Bears are eighth in the league with sacks (24) while the Giants' quarterback has only been dropped 12 times in 350 passing attempts. "I don't care what everybody else did. We (are) gonna sack him. ... I'm gonna make sure of that," McPhee said.

* The dust barely settled after New York eked out a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati on Monday when Beckham boasted greater heights for his ascending team. "We're really looking forward to Feb. 5 in Houston,” said Beckham, who has been feeling good with six touchdowns in his last five games after being held out of the end zone in his previous four. "That's the goal, obviously. I probably said that the past two or three years since I’ve been in the league. I feel real confident in this team." Veteran Rashad Jennings ran for 87 of his team's 122 yards to help New York's 31st-ranked rushing attack get untracked on Monday, but Chicago's defense (11th-ranked) should provide a tougher test.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as 7.5-point home favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been inching down all week to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (2, 39.5)

* Much-maligned quarterback Ryan Tannehill has not recorded a single turnover during Miami's winning streak after committing nine (seven interceptions, two fumbles) in the first five games. "I think that's the biggest thing for us right (now), is taking care of the football (and) not giving the other team opportunities with good field position and keeping ourselves in the right spot," Tannehill said of the Dolphins, who are plus-8 in turnovers during the winning streak. Tailback Jay Ajayi has rushed for 608 yards and four touchdowns during that stretch, but saw his string of 100-yard performances stopped at three after being limited to just 79 versus San Diego.

* One man's opportunity led to another's misery as Keenam approached the podium on Wednesday with a frown and told reporters he "wasn't happy" with coach Jeff Fisher's decision. With the team's passing game stuck in neutral, running back Todd Gurley has faced stacked boxes and is mustering a disappointing 3.1 yards per carry. The second-year back failed to reach the end zone for the seventh time in nine games during Los Angeles' 9-6 victory over the Jets on Sunday and faces a Miami team that has limited New York and San Diego to 100 yards on 33 carries over the last six quarters.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, quickly to the Rams as 1-point home favorite and bettors quickly jumped all over the road team bumping that line to Dolphins +2. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet down a full point to 39.5 Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (11, 51)

* Even if Gronkowski is able to play, which appears increasingly unlikely, Brady still has the luxury of throwing to backup tight end Martellus Bennett, who made seven catches for 102 yards against Seattle. “Look, I’ve started the majority of my career," Bennett, who has three 100-yard performances this season, told reporters. "Starting in a football game is just football. It doesn’t matter how I play or when I play. It’s just the same thing.” New England also will feature a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 69 yards and three touchdowns while having over 20 carries for the fifth time this season. The Patriots yield 18.1 points per game despite ranking in the bottom-third in sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions.

* San Francisco showed some moxie in ending a string of four straight blowouts by erasing an early 14-point deficit and clawing back from 10 down in the second half against Arizona. Carlos Hyde, who rushed for six touchdowns in the first five games, returned to the lineup after missing two contests with a shoulder injury but was limited to 14 yards on 13 carries. Colin Kaepernick has rushed for as least 55 yards in three of his four outings since replacing Blaine Gabbert as the starter, but he could be without deep threat Torrey Smith (shoulder), who was limited in practice Thursday. The 49ers rank last in the NFL in total yards (429.7) and rushing yards (180.4) allowed.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as massive 13.5-point road favorites and the line has steadily been fading to the current number of 11. The total opened at 51.5 and dropped as low as 50.5 before settling at 51. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 road games.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 42.5)

* The Philadelphia backfield is a confusing one to label, yet both veteran Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews are making their mark in distinctly different ways. Sproles remains a threat in the passing game with eight receptions last week and Mathews rushed for a season-high 109 yards and scored twice to increase his touchdown total to four in his last three contests. Jordan Matthews, who is nursing back spasms, has been the lone consistent Eagles wideout with 23 catches for 216 yards in his last three games.

* With Thomas Rawls (fibula) expected to return on Sunday and rookie C.J. Prosise turning heads by recording a career-high 153 yards from scrimmage (66 rushing, 87 receiving) versus the Patriots, Seattle opted to end Christine Michael's second stint with the club by waiving him this week. Prosise's dominating performance notwithstanding, the Seahawks are expected to ease back Rawls into the system despite the team being on pace for a franchise low for yards in a 16-game season. "We've got to get him back first. Let's get him back, get him going, make sure he's ready to roll and all that, and we'll figure that out," coach Pete Carroll said. "If he makes it through the week, he's going to play considerably because he’s in great shape and he's ready to do that. But we're not going to overplay him or try to take it too far too soon."

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Seattle as 6-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 6.5 and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been fading all week to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 11-2 in Eagles last 13 vs. NFC.
* Over is 8-2 in Seahawks last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 20

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ARI at MIN 01:00 PM

MIN -2.5

U 40.0 *****

PIT at CLE 01:00 PM

PIT -8.5 *****

U 44.0

JAC at DET 01:00 PM

JAC +6.0

O 47.0 *****

BUF at CIN 01:00 PM

CIN -2.5

O 47.5 *****

BAL at DAL 01:00 PM

BAL +7.0

U 44.5 *****

CHI at NYG 01:00 PM

CHI +7.0

U 41.5

TEN at IND 01:00 PM

IND -3.0 *****

O 53.0

TB at KC 01:00 PM

KC -7.0 *****

O 45.0 *****

MIA at LA 04:05 PM

LA -1.0 *****

U 39.0 *****

PHI at SEA 04:25 PM

SEA -6.5

O 43.0 *****

NE at SF 04:25 PM

NE -11.0 *****

O 51.5

GB at WAS 08:30 PM

WAS -3.0 *****

O 48.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks this week in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Raiders -5.5 (430)

5) Buccaneers +7.5 (434)- W

4) Vikings even (400)- W

3) Titans +3 (509)- L

2) Dolphins -2.5 (516)- W
1) Ravens +7 (596)- L

season record: 20-44-2

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Colts 24, Titans 17— Indy led 21-0 19:35 into game, held on for dear life; they’ve now won 11 in row over the Titans and 24 of last 28. Tennessee lost its last nine visits here. Indy stays within 1.5 games of Texans in AFC South. Colts have now covered 10 of their last 12 post-bye games, eight in row when favored.

Lions 26, Jaguars 19— Detroit has still trailed every game this year in 4th quarter; all ten of their games were decided by 7 or less points- they actually covered this game on a late FG. Jax lost its last five games; in two games since changing OC’s, Jaguars lost by 5-3-7 points, scoring 18 pts/game while turning ball over nine times on 34 possessions.

Buccaneers 19, Chiefs 17— Tampa Bay is 4-1 on road, 1-4 at home; go figure- they converted 11-16 on 3rd down which is huge in a low scoring game. KC had won 18 of previous 21 games, but in their last three games, have scored three offensive TDs on 30 drives, with nine FGAs. Bucs outgained KC by 99 yards.

Giants 22, Bears 16— Chicago led 16-9 at half, never scored again. Big Blue’s seven wins are by total of 27 points; their biggest win was 17-10 over Rams in London, when one of their two TD’s was scored by defense. Only one of ten Giant games was decided by more than 7 points. Chicago lost five of last six games, is 0-6 on road, 1-4 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-14-6-16-26-6 points.

Vikings 30, Cardinals 24— Minnesota had TD on both defense/special teams, now has six such TDs this year; they snap 4-game skid, are 4-1 at home are tied for first with Lions in NFC North. Arizona allowed 28.5 pts/game in losing three of first four road games, with only win at SF; Cardinals turned ball over eight times in last three games, is 0-2-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Bills 16, Bengals 12— When Houston Texans were on Hard Knocks in 2015, Bill O’Brien said this to his team: “You’re a part of the most competitive business in the world.” There is such a fine line between winning/losing these games. One play, one bounce of the ball makes all the difference. Bengals are 1-4-1 in last six games and their season is in freefall.

Cowboys 27, Ravens 17— Baltimore had 136 penalty yards, Cowboys 45. Dallas won/covered nine games in row; Cowboys are 4-1 at home, 3-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 14-14-6-7 points, heading into a Thanksgiving game with their rivals from Washington. NFC East teams are now 16-7 vs spread outside their division. Meanwhile Joe Flacco is taking grief from former Ravens; we’re a fickle society.

Steelers 24, Browns 9— Not only is Cleveland terrible (outscored 70-17 in second half of last four games), they haven’t had their bye yet so they’re tired too. Browns are 1-6-1 vs spread in its last eight games; QB kessler got KO’d, so it is McCown’s turn to get pummeled. All five Steeler wins this year are by 8+ points (wins by 22-8-29-18-15 points).

Dolphins 14, Rams 10— On their first 11 drives, Miami ran 42 plays for 92 yards; they were totally inept. Trailing 10-0 with 6:40 left, they won game with drives of 77-75 yards on 15 plays (10.1 yards per play, with penalties added in). Dolphins have now won/covered five games in a row; playoff teams find a way to win, cruddy teams find a way to lose. Miami is only a game out of the Wild Card slot.

Patriots 30, 49ers 17— There were three 4:00 games Sunday; funny thing is, only one of the three were it didn’t rain was the game in Seattle. 49ers are now 6-20 since Jim Harbaugh took off for Michigan; they were 44-19-1 while he was with Niners. Maybe they should’ve kept him.

Seahawks 26, Eagles 15— Wilson looks like his old self (almost); speed of new RB Prosise (was WR in college) makes Seahawk offense lot more dangerous. Seattle is 5-0 at home this year, 2-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 2-19-2-6-11 points. Eagles lost five of last seven games after a 3-0 start; they lost last five road games, allowing 27.7 pts/game.

Redskins 42, Packers 24— Green Bay is in free fall, losing last four games while allowing 153 points, most they’ve allowed in any 4-game stretch since the year before Vince Lombardi came to Green Bay (1958)— Pack lost last four road games, by 3-1-22-18 points; their only road win was in opener at Jacksonville. Redskins are 6-1-1 in last eight games after an 0-2 start (two home losses).

Under is 11-2 in NFL games this weekend. There were 12 extra points missed today; three of them in domes. Kicking is mental.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Texans vs. Raiders
November 20, 2016

The Week 11 card wraps up south of the border as the NFL heads to Mexico City, Mexico for a key AFC matchup between the Raiders and Texans. Oakland is listed as the home team in this contest although Houston is closer to Mexico City. The Raiders are fresh off the bye week sitting atop the AFC West, while the Texans are leading the AFC South in spite of inconsistent play at the quarterback position.

LAST WEEK

The Texans (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) finally won their first road game following an 0-3 start away from NRG Stadium. Houston held off Jacksonville, 24-21 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs, even though quarterback Brock Osweiler threw for only 99 yards. Osweiler did connect on a pair of touchdown passes with fringe tight ends Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson, while Kareem Jackson returned an interception 47 yards for the opening score of the game. The Texans improved to 3-0 inside the AFC South, while scoring more points at Jacksonville (24) than they did in their previous three road losses combined (22).

Oakland (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) had the week off in Week 10, but the Raiders dominated the Broncos, 30-20 two weeks ago at home. The Raiders picked up their third consecutive victory as running back Latavius Murray scored three touchdowns and racked up 114 yards. Quarterback Derek Carr threw for a career-high 513 yards the game prior in an overtime triumph at Tampa Bay, but Denver held Carr to a season-low 184 yards through the air, his second game this season throwing for 200 yards or less. The Raiders picked up their first home cover of the season in four tries, while improving to 3-9 ATS since the start of 2015 at the Coliseum.

POINTS APLENTY

Whenever the Raiders take the field, expect the scoreboard to light up. For the exception of two games in which Oakland was limited to 17 points or fewer, the Raiders have posted OVERS in seven of nine contests. The Silver and Black has scored at least 28 points seven times, while losing only once when eclipsing this point mark (Week 2 against Atlanta in 35-28 defeat).

Last season, the Raiders cashed the OVER in three of the first four games away from the Black Hole, but finished 3-0-1 to the UNDER in the last four road contests. Even though Oakland is the home team on Monday, we’ll look at their away numbers as Jack Del Rio’s squad is 4-1 to the OVER in five games away from the Coliseum.

NON-DIVISION NONSENSE

The Texans have compiled a terrific 6-1 record against AFC South opponents on the road since Bill O’Brien took over as head coach in 2014. However, Houston has struggled on the highway against non-division foes in this stretch by posting a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS record, including an 0-3 SU/ATS mark this season. Two of those victories came in the underdog role with one of those wins at Cincinnati last season as a 10-point ‘dog in a 10-6 Monday night triumph. The third victory came against, you guessed it, the Raiders back in 2014.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time these teams faced off was in Week 2 of the 2014 campaign in Oakland as the Texans roughed up the Raiders, 30-14 as three-point road favorites. The Houston defense intercepted Carr twice, while Oakland held the ball for a shade over 21 minutes. Oakland won the previous two meetings in Houston in 2011 and 2013, but the Raiders have lost six of nine lifetime matchups with the Texans since 2004.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Raiders as 5 ½-point favorites, but that number has moved up slightly to 6 heading into Monday. The total opened at 46 as that number has lowered to 45 at the Westgate, but a handful of books have kept the 46 number.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the quarterback advantage obviously lies with the Raiders, but he breaks down some stunning numbers on Houston’s signal-caller, “Carr is rated as a top 10 quarterback despite a heavy workload of pass attempts as he has one of the lowest interception rates of all-time going in his young career, including just three in 354 attempts so far this season. Osweiler has nine interceptions this season and his QB rating ranks 31st in the NFL, only ahead of since-benched starters Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick among qualified players. Osweiler has completed just over 58 percent of his passes and his 5.6 yards per attempt rate is the very worst in the NFL.”

However, the Texans have fattened up against weak competition according to Nelson, “Statistically there is a huge edge for Houston defensively in this matchup with the Texans eighth in the NFL in yards per play allowed, but the schedule rates among the weaker slates in the league and only a Week 2 win over Kansas City at this point rates as a high quality win for the Texans. The Texans have been out-gained in four of the last five contests despite winning three of those games and the lone game in that run where Houston had a yardage edge was the miraculous overtime win over Indianapolis.”

PROPS – According to the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Houston

B. Osweiler - Total Gross Passing Yards
232 ½ - OVER (-110)
232 ½ - UNDER (-110)

B. Osweiler – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+115)
1 ½ - UNDER (-135)

L. Miller – Total Rushing Yards
80 ½ - OVER (-110)
80 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Oakland

D. Carr – Total Completions
24 ½ - OVER (-110)
24 ½ - UNDER (-110)

D. Carr – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (+120)
2 – UNDER (-140)

Will A. Cooper score a touchdown?
YES (+120)
NO (-140)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100
11/14/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
1/17/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/20/2016 12-12-0 50.00% -600

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 89-110-6 44.72% -16000

O/U Picks 87-111-5 43.94% -17550

Triple Plays:..... 33 - 46 - 2

NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 .....( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )

[StarDust Bum]

Texans (6-3) vs Raiders (7-2) (in Mexico City)— Oakland won six of last seven games, covered last three, scoring 93 points (10 TDs on last 37 drives). Raiders ran ball for 163.3 yds/game last three games- both their losses this year came at home. Texans got first road win in Jacksonville last week; they’re 1-3 away from home, with all three losses by 18+ points- they’re 2-2 as an underdog this year. Oakland is 7-2 despite being favored in only three of nine games (1-2 as a favorite). Houston won six of last nine series games. Raiders are 2-11 in last 13 post-bye games but they covered last four. AFC South teams are 6-8 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-6 as non-divisional favorites. Over is 7-2 in Oakland games, 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at OAK 08:30 PM

OAK -6.5 *****

O 45.5 *****