Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 02:58 AM

'Dogs to Watch - Week 15
December 14, 2016

We've hit the homestretch of the NFL campaign and teams everywhere are doing what they can to stay in the playoff hunt. There are plenty of teams still alive in both conferences and that makes for some very interesting games (and point spreads) this week. We've got plenty of teams getting 4 points or more on the line and there's no question that at least one or two of them are more than capable of pulling off the outright upset.

Sportsbook.ag Underdogs That Qualify

Detroit Lions (+4); ML (+170)
Philadelphia Eagles (+6); ML (+220)
Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+260)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+170)
Cleveland Browns (+10); ML (+420)
Tennessee Titans (+6); ML (+205)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6); ML (+220)
San Francisco 49ers (+14); ML (+700)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7); ML (+255)
Carolina Panthers (+6); ML (+220)

With 10 teams making the list, I'll start by omitting the Bears, Browns, and 49ers here as only die-hard fans of those clubs will ever seriously consider a ML bet on those sides this week. All three of those organizations know that their 2016 seasons are all but done and with the level of effort and focus in question, trying to take a shot with the ML isn't likely to get your bankroll very far.

Nearly that same list are teams like the Eagles, Jaguars, and Panthers, but while those respective teams are out of the playoff picture, playing spoiler against their opponents (Baltimore, Houston, and Washington respectively) is something to consider. Carolina is on MNF against the Redskins and after such a disappointing season for the defending NFC Champions, the Panthers could use that primetime showcase game to have one of their better outings of the season and spoil the Redskins season at the same time.

Jacksonville is in a similar spot as they are on the road in Houston, and they'd love to get one over on a division rival and snap their eight-game losing streak in the process. At +220 for both Jacksonville and Carolina, both sides are worth serious consideration on the ML this week.

Of the remaining teams, all are either in the lead in their division or a game back and desperately need a win. Indianapolis (+4) likely has to go 3-0 SU to finish the year just to have a shot at getting into the tournament, but going into Minnesota is no easy task, especially when the Vikings are clinging to their own playoff hopes as well. Andrew Luck and the Colts are more than capable of getting it done though as the loser of this game will likely see their hopes for 2016 go down with the L. Getting better than +170 on the Colts would be nice, but even at that price they are still worthy of a deeper look.

Detroit is trying to fend off the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North and their game against the Giants this week is another one where both sides would love to avoid the L. However, the Lions have been playing with fire all year long with almost all of their victories coming after trailing in the 4th quarter and eventually they'll get burned. With Detroit having Dallas and Green Bay on tap to finish out the year, they are still a team that should be in the “wait and see” category this week. That leaves the Titans and the Bucs who both have tough road games against opponents with double digit wins.

Tennessee is in Kansas City to face a Chiefs team that I still don't believe in as they've been living off turnovers and mistakes made by opponents. Like the Lions run with 4th quarter comebacks, eventually a run like that wears out and Tennessee definitely has the running game that can take advantage of the Chiefs ranking 27th in the league vs the run.

Tampa Bay is in Dallas to take on a Cowboys team remembering how to deal with a loss, and fading a team after a loss that snapped a six-plus game winning streak is a strategy I like to employ. It's funny how even after 11 straight wins, the Cowboys and their fans are wondering when they will see Tony Romo again after another defeat and that organization just loves to create drama. But the Giants did expose ways how to beat this Dallas side and Tampa Bay is built in a similar fashion and playing tremendous football themselves in winning five straight. Tampa's defense has only allowed more than 17 points once during that span and they've played some very good teams and/or offenses during that time as well. Holding the Saints to 11 points last week was prefaced by giving up 5 to Seattle and 17 to Kansas City, so there is quite a bit of value on Tampa at +255.

Of the 10 teams on this list, putting ML wagers on Indianapolis (+170), Jacksonville (+220), Carolina (+220), Tennessee (+205), and Tampa Bay (+255) should see you go at least 2-3 SU and wrangle up some profits.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 03:01 AM

NFL opening line report: "Lines like these are usually fishy for a reason"

“The public is going to be all over Oakland in this matchup, laying just a field goal against a 5-8 Chargers squad. But lines like these are usually fishy for a reason.”

Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4)

New York has proven to be the kryptonite that kills Dallas. The Giants (9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) beat the Cowboys for the second time this year, winning a defensive slugfest 10-7 as a 3.5-point home underdog. New York has now won seven of its last eight SU, going 6-2 ATS in that stretch to put itself firmly in playoff position.

Of Detroit’s 13 games this season, all but one have been decided by 7 points or less, and the Lions have won eight of those one-score games. That was the case again Sunday, when Detroit (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) edged Chicago 20-17 on quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 7-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter.

Stafford played through a right-hand injury, reportedly a dislocated thumb and torn ligaments that will require him to wear a glove on his throwing hand against New York.

“The injury to Stafford is certainly something to consider when handicapping this contest, as he was clearly affected by it (Sunday),” Lester said early Monday. “A pair of quality defenses should equate to this total heading south, and it has already moved from 44 to 42.5.”

More under action dropped that number to 41 Monday afternoon. On the flip side, the line is heading north, having gone to Giants -5.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, no line

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver is closing in on must-win situations if it hopes to reach the playoffs and defend that title. The Broncos (8-5 SU and ATS) were held scoreless into the fourth quarter at Tennessee on Sunday, and a late comeback attempt fizzled on a lost fumble in a 13-10 loss as a 2-point underdog.

New England (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) still has work to do in Week 14, playing host to Baltimore in the Monday night game. The Patriots would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC if the playoffs opened today.

“We’ll wait until ‘Monday Night Football’ is over before hanging a line, but if there aren’t any surprises, the Patriots will be 3.5 to 4-point road favorites,” Lester said. “The Denver defense should be pretty amped to perform well against a top-flight offense. But can Trevor Siemian and the Denver offense keep up?”

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (+3)

Oakland will look to bounce back from its first loss since mid-October. The Raiders (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) were dealt a 21-13 setback at Kansas City as a 3.5-point pup in the Thursday nighter, dropping them into a tie for first in the AFC West with the Chiefs, who hold the tiebreaker because they won both meetings with Oakland this year.

Much like Detroit, San Diego has been in a lot of one-score games this year, but on the wrong end of the result. The Chargers were on the wrong end again Sunday, but not in a one-score game. San Diego (5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS) fell behind 23-0 in a 28-16 loss at Carolina catching 1 point.

“The public is going to be all over Oakland in this matchup, laying just a field goal against a 5-8 Chargers squad,” Lester said. “But lines like these are usually fishy for a reason, and the early money has actually been on the home ‘dog.”

That brought the number down to 2.5 this afternoon.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Dallas has only lost to one team the entire 2016 season. Twice. The Cowboys (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) fell to the New York Giants 20-19 in their season opener as a 1-point favorite, then ripped off 11 consecutive wins. On Sunday night, that streak ended with a 10-7 loss in a defensive struggle at New York, where the Pokes were 3.5-point favorites.

Meanwhile, a month ago, this game looked like any other late-season contest for Tampa Bay in recent years – meaningless. However, the Buccaneers ripped off five consecutive SU and ATS wins and are tied with Atlanta atop the NFC South. Tampa (8-5 SU and ATS) slogged past New Orleans 16-11 Sunday laying 2 points at home.

“Tampa Bay has been one of the hottest teams at the wagering window, and the bettors have certainly taken notice,” Lester said. “Sharps played against them last week, but the squares didn’t hesitate to take them against the Saints. That won’t happen here, as the Cowboys are the most-backed team in the league, and the fact that they’re off a loss won’t help us garner ‘dog action.”

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 03:02 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 15 NFL lines are going to move

The Bucs earned valuable street cred with their Weeks 11-12 wins over Kansas City and Seattle, and now are legit players in the NFC playoff mix.

Game to bet now

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-7)

It took the Bucs a while to figure things out this season, but Tampa Bay is on its best roll in years, and with five straight victories is making life very uncomfortable for Atlanta in the NFC South. Both are 8-5, the teams have split their two games and the final three weeks of the season will be spent examining tie-breaking procedures.

Tampa Bay’s road won’t be easy – after Sunday they play at New Orleans and then home vs. Carolina. But the Bucs earned valuable street cred with their Weeks 11-12 wins over Kansas City and Seattle, and now are legit players in the NFC playoff mix. Bettors are responding, too, feasting on the original line of 7.5 and betting it down a half-point early in the week.

Game to wait on

Cleveland at Buffalo (-10)

The players love him and the media loves him, but in the NFL you can lose only so much, so it looks like Rex Ryan’s coaching career is about to fade to black. A SU loss to the Browns would probably be his final game as a head coach and he pretty much needs to run the table (and somewhat convincingly) to salvage a 9-7 season and perhaps another season on the sidelines. But things don’t look good for either Ryan or QB Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is due a huge guaranteed contract if he stays with the Bills into mid-March, so it’s very possible they cut ties with both the HC and the QB.

As for the Browns and their trip to nowhere, bettors don’t even like them against a struggling Bills team, so the line has already bumped up a half-point from its 9.5 opening, and could go further.

Total to watch

Detroit at New York Giants (41.5)

Just when the Lions start to figure things out, they now have to deal with an injured quarterback. Matthew Stafford has emerged as one of the best QBs in the league and has led the 9-4 Lions to the top of the NFC North and a probable playoff spot. If things break right, they could get a first-round bye. But the injury (the Lions aren’t saying what it is) is raising concerns. He’ll play Sunday, but you can be sure that the Giants (9-4; they also need a victory to keep the heat on Dallas) will attempt to make the pocket very uncomfortble.

Will Detroit try to relieve the pressure by running the ball, killing clock? One other note – both the Giants (3-10-0) and Lions (4-9) are among the best under teams in the league.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 03:04 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 15

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LA RAMS (4 - 9) at SEATTLE (8 - 4 - 1) - 12/15/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 175-221 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-221 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-173 ATS (-64.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-175 ATS (-55.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 64-94 ATS (-39.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 65-36 ATS (+25.4 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 4-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 17

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MIAMI (8 - 5) at NY JETS (4 - 9) - 12/17/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 18

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TAMPA BAY (8 - 5) at DALLAS (11 - 2) - 12/18/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 36-58 ATS (-27.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (9 - 4) at NY GIANTS (9 - 4) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 130-166 ATS (-52.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 8) at BALTIMORE (7 - 6) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (7 - 6) at CHICAGO (3 - 10) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 104-76 ATS (+20.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 64-37 ATS (+23.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 7) at MINNESOTA (7 - 6) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 13) at BUFFALO (6 - 7) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
BUFFALO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (7 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 3) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 11) at HOUSTON (7 - 6) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 8) at ARIZONA (5 - 7 - 1) - 12/18/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 12) at ATLANTA (8 - 5) - 12/18/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (11 - 2) at DENVER (8 - 5) - 12/18/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 180-135 ATS (+31.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 77-53 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (10 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 8) - 12/18/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 31-58 ATS (-32.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-76 ATS (-47.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-42 ATS (-27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (8 - 5) at CINCINNATI (5 - 7 - 1) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 19

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CAROLINA (5 - 8) at WASHINGTON (7 - 5 - 1) - 12/19/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 58-90 ATS (-41.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 03:05 AM

NFL

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 15

8:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. SEATTLE
Los Angeles is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles

Saturday, December 17

8:25 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
NY Jets are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Miami

Sunday, December 18

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-21 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games
NY Giants are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games
Cincinnati is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. BALTIMORE
Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ATLANTA
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:05 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ARIZONA
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Arizona18-5-1 SU in its last 24 games at home

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
Oakland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
San Diego is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Oakland

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing Dallas
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 6-11-2 ATS in its last 19 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Monday, December 19

8:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. WASHINGTON
Carolina is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Carolina is 3-6-2 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 03:06 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thurs – Dec. 15

Los Angeles at Seattle, 8:25 PM ET
Los Angeles: 29-57 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
Seattle: 5-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Sat – Dec. 17

Miami at NY Jets, 8:25 PM ET
Miami: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game
New York: 8-0 ATS after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Sun – Dec. 18

Tampa Bay at Dallas, 8:30 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 18-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Dallas: 5-13 ATS in games played on turf

Detroit at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 22-43 ATS in road games off a home win
New York: 64-41 ATS off a home win

Philadelphia at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia: 48-29 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Baltimore: 3-12 ATS in home games after playing on Monday night football

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game
Chicago: 10-22 ATS in home games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Indianapolis at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis: 9-1 OVER in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

Cleveland at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS after 7 or more consecutive losses
Buffalo: 20-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Tennessee at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 6-16 ATS in road games
Kansas City: 18-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 67-94 ATS after playing a game at home
Houston: 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

New Orleans at Arizona, 4:05 PM ET
New Orleans: 44-25 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders
Arizona: 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

San Francisco at Atlanta, 4:05 PM ET
San Francisco: 20-8 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite
Atlanta: 7-22 ATS in home games after a win by 14 or more points

New England at Denver, 4:25 PM ET
New England: 16-4 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Denver: 27-13 OVER after a loss by 3 or less points

Oakland at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
Oakland: 10-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents
San Diego: 0-7 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 48-28 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
Cincinnati: 70-96 ATS versus division opponents

Mon – Dec. 19

Carolina at Washington, 8:30 PM ET
Carolina: 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Washington: 4-15 ATS in home games when playing on Monday night

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 03:07 AM

Thursday's Top Action
December 13, 2016

NFL Week 15 Thursday Football Betting Preview
Los Angeles Rams (4-9 SU; 4-8-1 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-4-1 SU; 7-6 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Seattle (-15); Total set at 38.5

The post-Jeff Fisher era begins for the Rams on a short week as they head north to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team that just got their asses handed to them in Green Bay. NFL bettors have had no problem fading the lowly Rams all year with their lowly 4-8-1 ATS record, but those bets against L.A. have been ramped up in both ticket count and money bet since the start of October as L.A. is just 2-7-1 ATS since then.

Internally, the Rams organization is a complete mess and become a laughingstock of the NFL and chances are it will be at least a year or two before this team becomes respectable. Three straight losses by 16 points or more sealed Fisher's fate (if it wasn't already) and now the Rams are left to pick up the pieces in just a few days. There will be no shortage of money going against the Rams again this week, but are you really excited about laying 15 points with Seattle on short rest?

Seattle looked downright awful on both sides of the ball vs. Green Bay on Sunday as the defense allowed 38 points in the 38-10 loss. To be fair to Seattle's defense, they weren't exactly put in the best spots with the offense turning the ball over five times and cleaning up those turnovers is one of the top priorities this week. There is little doubt that Seattle should win this game rather comfortably given all the dysfunction in Los Angeles right now, but the point spread is always the great equalizer and 15 points is a lot of chalk to swallow.

That being said, early betting action has already seen this number get pushed up to 15 after opening at -14, and given how profitable it's been to bet against the Rams the past two months, there is only going to be more and more tickets written Seattle's way as the week goes on. If you aren't shy about laying that kind of chalk, I'd suggest getting your bet in sooner than later as we could very well see this game close around the -17 mark.

Those that are willing to lay the points will have to remember that it's actually Seattle who is looking for revenge in this division rivalry though as it was the Rams who won the first meeting 9-3 back in mid-September. Obviously the teams have gone in much different directions since then, but the Rams do match up well with Seattle and they've won the last three meetings – all as underdogs. There's a great chance Seattle snaps that streak this week, but the game could end up being closer than this point spread suggests.

Yet, rather then making a play on this point spread with all the uncertainty and changes going on in L.A right now, it's the total that presents more value here. Early money on this total has already pushed the number down about two points (opened 40.5) as bettors look back at that 9-3 score in the first meeting and don't expect the Rams to put up many points against a Seattle defense that will be hungry for redemption after getting torched in Green Bay.

However, the Rams coaching change could spark an excitement within that Rams locker room to attempt to finish the season strong and it's not like Green Bay was the only team to put up good numbers against this Seahawks defense this season.

Seattle is 4-1 O/U in their last five games at home and should be able to threaten 30+ points against a Rams defense that has allowed an average of 39 points/game over their last three contests. Seattle has averaged 32 points per game during this 4-1 O/U run at home, and as the hefty favorites they are, the Seahawks would love to improve on that number.

Simply reaching that average this week and allowing just a single TD would push this game 'over' the current total of 38.5 and as part of a division rematch flip-flop theory here (1st meeting goes 'under' take 'over' in the 2nd meeting), the chances of that happening are rather strong. As embarrassed and frustrated as the Seahawks defense was last week, once this game is in hand, it's very easy to think that the Seahawks defense will be in prevent-mode and let the Rams move the ball with more success during garbage time.

And if this game is closer than expected, it's not likely to be a FG battle again and the Rams will have 14+ points in that scenario. Either way, this total is a touch too low now and should be surpassed in a game that's not likely to bring plenty of excitement.

Best Bet: Over 38.5 points.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 09:59 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Thursday's game
Rams (4-9) @ Seahawks (8-4-1)— Seattle slipped out of #2 seed in NFC with loss to Packers; Seahawks are 6-0 at home, 3-3 as home favorites, with three wins by 11+ points. LA is in turmoil, traveling on short work week with John Fassel their interim coach; Rams lost eight of last nine games overall, but they have beaten Seattle three times in row, including a 6-3 slugfest in Coliseum in Week 2, when Wilson was gimpy with bad ankle. Rams’ 23-17 win here LY was their first win in last 11 visits to Seattle. Rams were outscored 117-45 in last three games; they’re 4-2 as road underdogs, but were outscored 38-0 in first half of last two games. NFC divisional home favorites are 6-12-1 vs spread. Over is 4-2 in last six Seattle games, 3-5 in Rams’ eight games away from home.

Saturday's game
Dolphins (8-5) @ Jets (4-9)— Tannehill (sprained ACL/MCL) is out, but maybe not for year; Matt Moore gets his first start since 2011 (13-12 career record). His backup is WKU rookie Doughty, who has never played in NFL. Miami (-3.5) won first meeting 27-23 in Week 9, running kick back for GW TD with 5:15 left in game; that snapped 3-game skid with Jets. Miami has won six of last eight visits here. Dolphins won seven of last eight games overall, are 2-4 on road (won at Chargers/Rams). Jets rallied from down 17-3 at half to win in OT in Santa Clara LW, snapping 4-game skid. New York is 1-5 at home, with three losses by 5 or less points- this is best team Petty has started against (previous starts vs LA/SF). Over is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games, 2-7 in Jets’ last nine. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 13-7 vs spread.

Sunday's games
Lions (9-4) @ Giants (9-4)— Giants are 0-4-1 vs spread the week after their last five wins over Dallas. Third and final outdoor game for Detroit this season, first since Week 4 in Chicago. Lions are 9-4 despite trailing in 4th quarter in 12 of 13 games; they’re 3-3 on road (0-2 outdoors), 4-1 as road underdog. Stafford has injured middle finger on throwing hand; he played whole game LW, but his throwing has to be hampered. New York won seven of last eight games, is 6-1 at home, 2-2 as a home favorite. Giants won three of last four series games; Detroit won three of last four visits here, with last one in 2010. NFC North road underdogs are 7-6 against the spread; NFC East home favorites are 7-3. Last seven Detroit games stayed under the total, as have last five Giant games.

Eagles (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6)— Last four games, Philly allowed 8.7/8.0/10.7/10.8 yards/pass attempt; not good. Eagles lost eight of last ten games after a 3-0 start; they’re 1-6 on road with only win at Chicago in Week 2- they lost last four games overall (0-4 vs spread) with losses by 11-14-18-5 points. Philly also has a new long snapper this week. Ravens are on short week after 30-23 loss in Foxboro; Baltimore won/covered its last four home games, they’re 4-2 as home favorites. Home side is 3-0-1 in last four series games; three of those games were decided by 5 or less points. Eagles lost 36-7 in last visit here, in ’08. NFC East road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread; AFC North home favorites are 7-5. Over is 5-1-1 in Eagle road games, 1-5 in Baltimore home games.

Packers (7-6) @ Bears (3-10)— Green Bay defense allowed 36 points in last three games (all wins), after allowing 153 (153!!!) in previous four games. Packers are 2-4 on road, with wins at Jaguars (27-23), Eagles (27-13); they’re 0-3 as road favorites. Pack is 7-1 when they allow less than 30 points. Chicago is 1-4 since its bye; they’re 3-3 at home, 3-1 as home underdogs- their last three losses were all by 6 or less points. Green Bay (-7.5) won first meeting 26-10 in Week 7, outgunning Bears 406-189; only Chicago TD was scored by defense in game that was 6-3 at half. Packers won last six visits here, five by 7+ points. Over is 5-2 in Packers’ last seven games, 2-6 in Bears’ last eight. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 13-7 vs spread. Packers had 12 takeaways in 12 games before they had six in 38-10 win over Seattle.

Colts (6-7) @ Vikings (7-6)— Minnesota is 2-6 in its last eight games but only game out of Wild Card; Vikings are 4-2 at home, 3-1 as home favorites- they struggled in red zone LW, scoring 16 points on five red zone drives vs Jaguars. Minnesota is 11-37 on 3rd down the last three weeks. Colts won last three road games, are 3-1-1 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 3 in Houston, 14 in Denver. Indy is 20-40 on 3rd down last three games, but they turned ball over six times (-2)- Colts are 5-0 vs spread in game following their last five losses. Indy won last four series games, last three all by three points; home side won 10 of last 11 series games. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-14, 5-7 on road. NFC North home favorites are 7-6. Under is 9-4 in Viking games, 3-1 in last four Indy games.

Browns (0-13) @ Bills (6-7)— Cleveland is 2-11 vs spread; 0-16 Lions were 7-9 vs spread in ‘08. Browns are 2-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-6-11-2-14-21 points- this is their first road game since Week 10. In last three games, Cleveland was outscored 48-6 in first half. Buffalo is 6-1 if they allow 21 or less points, 0-6 if they allow more. Browns scored 9.8 pts/game their last five games. Bills lost last two games, dropped out of contention; they are 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home favorite, with wins by 15-29-7 at home. Buffalo won three of last four series games; Browns lost 13-6/26-10 in last two visits here. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-10, 2-6 on road. AFC East home favorites are 4-5. Last five Cleveland games stayed under total; over is 10-2 in Bills’ last 12 games.

Titans (7-6) @ Chiefs (10-3)— Tennessee won three of last four games; they’re 3-3 on road, 2-3 as road underdogs. Titans were just 6-21/73 passing LW but beat Denver and are tied for first in AFC South. Chiefs won eight of last nine games, won/covered last three; they had three extra days to prep since beating Oakland last Thursday. KC is 5-1 at home, 2-4 vs spread as a home favorite, with three home wins by 6 or less points- they averaged 10.6.9.9 yds/pass attempt last two games. Home side lost five of last six series games; Titans won three of last four visits here- they’re 4-3 overall in last seven series games. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-14, 5-7 on road. AFC West home favorites are 6-9. Over is 8-2 in last ten Tennessee games, 3-9 in Chiefs’ last 12 games.

Jaguars (2-11) @ Texans (7-6)— Houston’s win at Indy LW snapped 3-game skid, kept them tied for first in AFC South; Texans are 5-1 at home, 3-0-1 as a home favorite- they’ve been outscored in second half in each of their last seven games. Jaguars lost last eight games (2-6 vs spread); they’re 1-5 on road, 3-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 24-14-5-7-7 points- their only road win was 17-16 at Chicago, when they were down 13-0 in 4th quarter. Houston (+2) won first meeting 24-21 in Jacksonville in Week 10, throwing for only 92 yards but scoring a defensive TD. Texans are 10-2 in last 12 series games, winning last five in row. Jaguars lost five of last six visits here, losing 23-17/30-6 the last two years. AFC divisional home favorites are 14-7 vs spread this season.

Saints (5-8) @ Cardinals (5-7-1)— New Orleans lost by 15-5 points last two games, with one TD, five FGA, six turnovers on 20 drives; Saints are 2-4 on road, 4-1 as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-6-3-5 points- five of their six road games were decided by 6 or less points. Arizona lost three of its last four games, is 4-2-1 at home, 3-4 as home favorites; they lost to Rams/Patriots, tied Seattle. Redbirds allowed 27.8 pts/game their last six games, giving up 16 TD’s on opponents’ last 62 drives. Home side won last six series games; Saints lost last three visits here, by 24-10-12 points. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-2 vs spread. NFC West home favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 5-5 at home. Under is 6-2 in Saints’ last eight games, 0-4 in Arizona’s last four.

49ers (1-12) @ Falcons (8-5)— Niners blew 17-3 halftime lead LW in losing 12th game in row; SF is 2-4 as road underdog, losing away games by 19-19-29-3-7-20 points. SF allowed 37-45 in its two games on artificial turf this year, losses by 19-29. Bad sign: Niners were outscored 39-0 in second half of last two games, vs Bears/Jets. Atlanta’s two best WRs sat out LW’s game in LA; Falcons are 3-3 at home, 1-4 as home favorites, with wins by 15-1-19 points. 49ers won last three series games, by 4-1-10 points; they’ve lost two of last three visits here, winning 28-24 in last visit here, a 2012 playoff game. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 5-9. Four of last five 49er game stayed under total; over is 11-2 in Falcon games this year.

Patriots (10-2) @ Broncos (8-5)— Long travel on short week for New England, which is 1-6 in last seven games in Denver, losing last three by 10-6-2 points. Patriots are 8-1 with Brady under center this year, 5-0 on road, 4-1 as road favorites, 3-0 on grass. Denver is 2-3 in its last five games, 4-2 at home, losing to Falcons by 7, Chiefs by 3. Broncos are 3-2 as an underdog this year. Denver is tied with Miami for last Wild Card slot; this game means more to them than to Patriots, who have game lead for #1 seed in AFC. Home side won last seven games in series; Patriots lost three of last four games with Denver, with wins in playoff games the last two years. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 8-5 vs spread, 4-0 on road. AFC West underdogs are 9-4, 1-0 at home. Under is 7-3 in last ten Denver games, 3-1 in last four Patriot games.

Raiders (10-3) @ Chargers (5-8)—Oakland had three extra days to prep after loss in Kansas City snapped its 6-game win streak. Raiders are 5-1 in true road games, with wins by 1-7-1-17-6 points- they’re 3-3 as a favorite this year, +6 in turnovers their last four games. San Diego lost three of last four games; they’re 3-3 at home, losing last two games here 31-24/28-21 to Dolphins/Bucs. Chargers are 4-3 as an underdog this year. Raiders (-4) won first meeting 34-31 in Week 5; Raiders had four takeaways (+3) while San Diego averaged 11.0 yards/pass attempt. Raiders won last three series games, by 8-3-3 points, but lost three of last four visits here. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season. Over is 10-3 in Oakland games, 0-2-1 in last three Charger games.

Steelers (8-5) @ Bengals (5-7-1)— Steelers won/covered last four games, with three of those wins on road; Pitt is 4-2 at home, 4-1 as home favorite, with wins by 8-29-18-10 points- their home losses were to Pats/Cowboys. Bengals won last two games after a 1-5-1 skid; they’re 3-2 at home, losing to Broncos/Bills; they’re 0-3 as an underdog. Pitt (-3.5) won first meeting 24-16 in Week 2, in a game where Bengals outgained them 412-374. Steelers won six of last seven series games; they are 6-1 in last seven visits here, winning 33-20/18-16 in last two visits to Queen City. Favorites are 7-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Bengals cut K Nugget this week, signed former Steeler K Bullock. Under is 9-3 in last 12 Steeler games, 4-1 in last five Bengal games.

Buccaneers (8-5) @ Cowboys (11-2)— Dallas is 2-24 on third down in its last two games; if they lose this game. there will be a QB controversy. Tampa Bay gets thrust into national spotlight here after five straight wins/covers; Bucs allowed only five TDs on last 38 drives over last four games- they’re 5-1 on road with four SU upsets (4-1 vs spread as road dog this year). Cowboys are 0-2 vs Giants, 11-0 vs everyone else; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 14-14-6-10-5 points. Dallas won five of last six series games; Bucs are 1-9 in Dallas, with only win a 10-6 game in 2001. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-2 vs spread. NFC East home favorites are 7-3. Under is 3-0-1 in Bucs’ last four games, 7-3 in Cowboys’ last ten. This is Bucs’ first game on artificial turf since 31-24 win in Week 1 at Atlanta.

Monday's game
Panthers (5-8) @ Redskins (7-5-1)— Washington enters week half-game behind Bucs in Wild Card race; Redskins won/covered last four home games, scoring 31.5 pts/game- they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Panthers are 1-5 on road, with only win 13-10 at LA; they were favored in four of six road games, are 1-1 as a road underdog. Washington scored 23+ points in its last six games; they’re 6-1 allowing less than 27 points. Carolina held Redskins to nine first downs in 44-16 win LY; Panthers won last four series games after losing seven of previous eight- Carolina lost five of six games here. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-2 vs spread. NFC East home favorites are 7-3. Last six Redskin games went over total; under is 4-2 in last six Carolina games. Hopefully Cam Newton wore a tie on the team flight.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 10:00 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 15

Thursday, December 15

Los Angeles @ Seattle

Game 301-302
December 15, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
120.955
Seattle
140.363
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 19 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 16
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-16); Over

Saturday, December 17

Miami @ NY Jets

Game 303-304
December 17, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
130.723
NY Jets
124.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 2 1/2
38
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-2 1/2); Under

Sunday, December 18

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Game 329-330
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.590
Cincinnati
136.362
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+3 1/2); Over

Oakland @ San Diego

Game 327-328
December 18, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
136.114
San Diego
130.754
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 5 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-3); Under

New England @ Denver

Game 325-326
December 18, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
137.327
Denver
135.978
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 1 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+3 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Atlanta

Game 323-324
December 18, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
118.065
Atlanta
142.869
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 25
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 14
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-14); Over

New Orleans @ Arizona

Game 321-322
December 18, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
131.522
Arizona
131.418
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+2 1/2); Under

Jacksonville @ Houston

Game 319-320
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
123.033
Houston
134.015
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 11
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6
39
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-6); Over

Tennessee @ Kansas City

Game 317-318
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
136.613
Kansas City
135.668
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+6); Under

Cleveland @ Buffalo

Game 315-316
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
123.186
Buffalo
129.762
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 10
41
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10); Over

Indianapolis @ Minnesota

Game 313-314
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
128.633
Minnesota
136.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4); Under

Green Bay @ Chicago

Game 311-312
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
140.245
Chicago
126.298
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 14
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Under

Philadelphia @ Baltimore

Game 309-310
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
125.456
Baltimore
137.566
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 12
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 6
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-6); Over

Detroit @ NY Giants

Game 307-308
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
136.939
NY Giants
135.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 4
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+4); Under

Tampa Bay @ Dallas

Game 305-306
December 18, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.055
Dallas
144.206
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 12
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-7); Over

Monday, December 19

Carolina @ Washington

Game 331-332
December 19, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
133.689
Washington
133.061
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 5
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+5); Under

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 10:00 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Thursday Night Football betting preview: Rams at Seahawks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russell Wilson was hampered by an ailing ankle on Sept. 18 and threw for just 254 yards as the Seahawks lost to the Rams, 9-3, in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-16, 38.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are trying to put the pieces together after a lopsided loss while the Los Angeles Rams are attempting to tackle a much bigger puzzle with an interim head coach at the helm during a short week. The first-place Seahawks look to capture the NFC West title for the third time in four years and remain perfect in the Pacific Northwest on Thursday night when they host John Fassel and the reeling Rams.

Seattle, which needs just a win or an Arizona loss to clinch the division crown, hardly looked like a playoff contender on Sunday as Russell Wilson threw a career-high five interceptions in a 38-10 setback in Green Bay. "I put that on me. That game was on me," said the 28-year-old Wilson, who was hampered by an ailing ankle on Sept. 18 and threw for just 254 yards as the Seahawks suffered their third straight loss to the Rams with a 9-3 decision in Los Angeles. That was a happier time for the Rams, who parted ways with Jeff Fisher on Monday and temporarily handed the keys to special teams coach Fassel just hours after the club sustained its eighth loss in nine games with a 42-14 shellacking by Atlanta. Fassel's task is a formidable one as Los Angeles ranks last in the NFL in points (14.9 per game) and total yards (286.2), and 30th overall in both rushing yards (81.1) and turnover differential (minus-11).

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Rams (+5.5) - Seahawks (-4.5) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -13

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 13-point home favorites over the Rams. That -13 clearly wasn't big enough for the betting public and was steadily bet up all week until it finally settled in at -16 on Wednesday evening. The total hit the board at 39.5 and came down a full point to 38.5. View complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast in Seattle for Thursday night is calling for clear skies, temperatures right around the freezing mark and no wind issues at all (2-3 mph).

INJURIES:

Rams - WR B. Quick (Probable, shoulder), DE M. Longacre (Probable, heel), DE R. Quinn (Doubtful, concussion), CB E. Gaines (Doubtful, quadricep), RB B. Cunningham (Out, neck), S M. Alexander (Out, concussion), TE C. Harkey (I-R, tricep), LB J. Forrest (I-R, knee), WR N. Spruce (I-R, knee), DT L. Trinca-Pasat (I-R, knee), FB Z. Laskey (I-R, undisclosed), WR M. North (I-R, undisclosed), DB B. Randolph (I-R, knee), T D. Williams (I-R, undisclosed).

Seahawks - LB B. Coyle (Probable, foot), LB D. McDonald (Questionable, illness), DE D. Moore (Out, foot), RB C. Prosise (Out For Season, shoulder), FB W. Tukuafu (I-R, concussion), RB T. Pope (I-R, ankle), S E. Thomas (I-R, leg), DT Q. Jefferson (I-R, knee), DT G. Smith (I-R, undisclosed), TE J. Sommers (I-R, ankle), WR T. Slavin (I-R, undisclosed), DE T. Barnes (I-R, arm), CB S. Jean-Baptiste (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE RAMS (4-9 SU, 4-8-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Todd Gurley didn't help Fisher's cause after blurting out that Los Angeles "looked like a middle-school offense out there," with the running back being limited to 3.3 yards per carry and five touchdowns in 13 games this season after an impressive 4.8 average and 10 scores in his rookie campaign. Top overall pick Jared Goff is still getting his feet wet after sitting in favor of Case Keenum, throwing two interceptions on Sunday before finishing with respectable numbers (24-of-41 for 235 yards) due in part to the game being out of hand in a hurry. Both Goff and Gurley scored a rushing touchdown last week, with the former's serving as his first of his career.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (8-4-1 SU, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Seattle entered Sunday's game versus Green Bay as the league's top defense but saw that designation shredded after surrendering a season high in points in the first contest without former All-Pro safety Earl Thomas (broken leg). Seattle limited Gurley to just 51 yards on 19 carries with linebacker K.J. Wright collecting a team-high nine tackles in Week 2 and 49 with two sacks and a forced fumble over his last six games at home. Wideout Doug Baldwin has 20 receptions in his last three contests, but was limited to season lows in catches (three) and yards (20) in the first meeting with the Rams.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
* Under is 9-0 in Rams' last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 4-1 in Seahawks' last 5 home games.
* Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of the picking public is grabbing the home favorite Seahawks and 56 percent are taking the Over.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 10:02 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15

Any discussion of the vastly improved Raiders defense begins and ends with LE Khalil Mack, whose Pro Football Focus grade of 92.9 is the best at his position.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+2.5, 38)

Dolphins' third-down struggles vs. Jets' punt-forcing power

Saturday's showdown with the Jets is a must-win game for the Miami Dolphins, who will have to make their playoff push without injured starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Not only does Miami have to contend with someone new under center - in cold and hostile territory, no less - but it is also facing the prospect of trying to establish the run game against one of the top rushing defenses in football. And then there's the Dolphins' third-down conversion rate, which could make things even rougher.

Extending drives hasn't exactly been Miami's forte through the first 13 games of the season. The Dolphins have the fewest third down conversions in the league (52), and boast the NFL's third-worst conversion rate (34.2 percent). Only the Los Angeles Rams and New York Giants (33.3 percent each) have been worse at turning third downs into first downs. And while it hasn't hurt them of late - the Dolphins come in having won six of seven - it might only be a matter of time before it does.

That time could come as early as this week against a Jets team that is well out of the playoff picture, but still has a defense capable of making life miserable for opponents. New York comes into this one with the eighth-lowest opponent third-down conversion rate in football (37.8 percent), a proficiency that has helped in part mask the team's many deficiencies. If the Dolphins continue to struggle at moving the sticks on third down, their playoff hopes might be extinguished.

Daily fantasy watch: Jets D/ST

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-10, 41.5)

Browns' defensive breakdowns vs. Bills' red-zone wrecking crew

There is more than pride on the line for the Cleveland Browns this weekend in Buffalo - there's also the little matter of not joining the 0-16 club. But the Browns will be in tough to earn that elusive first victory against a stout Bills defense that is expected to overwhelm the Cleveland offensive line all game long. Yet, that isn't even the biggest mismatch of the day - that honor is bestowed upon the Bills' red-zone proficiency, which should make short work of Cleveland's abysmal defense.

Led by dynamic quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the Bills have been sensational once inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in red-zone touchdown rate (67.5 percent), behind only the Tennessee Titans. The Bills are especially dangerous at home, boasting the league's best red-zone TD success rate at a whopping 81.3 percent. Once Taylor and the rest of the offense gets deep into opposition territory, it's seven points more often than not.

Don't expect the Browns to offer much resistance in that department. Teams have scored touchdowns on better than 67 percent of their visits inside the Cleveland 20, the third-worst rate in the league. Cleveland has actually been slightly better in this regard on the road (66.7) than at home (68), but frankly, both rates are terrible. Taylor should have no trouble marching downfield against the winless Browns - and once Buffalo is close to the end zone, it'll find a way to get in.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Mike Gillislee

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3, 44)

Patriots' increased rushing reliance vs. Broncos' run D struggles

You won't find many teams that give New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady fits - but the Denver Broncos certainly fit the bill. The Broncos are the only team against whom Brady has a losing record in his career (6-9), and he'll be in tough to improve on that mark as he faces his nemeses in chilly Denver. But while Brady faces an uphill battle through the air, the Patriots have a distinct advantage on the ground - and they won't hesitate to use it.

New England has been a much more run-focused team than in years past, even despite Brady's dominance since returning from a season-opening four-game suspension. The Patriots run the ball on 44 percent of their offensive plays, the fifth-highest rate in the league. That balanced attack has reaped significant rewards for running back LeGarrette Blount, who leads the league with 14 rushing scores - a figure that contributes greatly to the Patriots scoring 36.6 percent of their TDs on the ground.

If there's one area of the Denver defense that is exploitable, it's the run prevention unit. The Broncos have surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards in the league as opponents look to avoid Denver's elite pass defense. The result: Half of the offensive TDs allowed by the Broncos have come on the ground, behind only the Bills. New England is going to run it a ton, and Denver's odds of winning come down to whether it can do anything about it.

Daily fantasy watch: RB LeGarrette Blount

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (+3, 49.5)

Raiders' dominant defensive ends vs. Chargers' suspect O-line

Playoff fever has returned to Oakland, as the Raiders remain in the hunt for the division title despite last week's loss to the rival Kansas City Chiefs. The Oakland offense has been able to keep its team in the majority of games, but the defense - or at least certain elements of it - have been just as impressive. And as the Chargers are about to find out this weekend, two members of the Oakland D in particular have been menaces for opposing quarterbacks.

Any discussion of the vastly improved Raiders defense begins and ends with LE Khalil Mack, whose Pro Football Focus grade of 92.9 is the best at his position despite being lower than his scores the previous two years. He represents a matchup nightmare for just about anyone he matches up against - and he has help on the right side in RE Bruce Irvin, who boasts a PFF grade of 82.7. The two have combined for 16 sacks through the first 13 games.

The message to the San Diego offensive line: Good luck. Seriously. Four of the Chargers' five starting O-lineman boast grades south of 54, with only C Matt Slauson (81.7) considered anywhere near average. Mack will likely line up against RT Joe Barksdale (42.7), while Irwin will see LT King Dunlap (53.5). That considerable advantage in Oakland's favor could mean serious trouble for San Diego QB Philip Rivers, and by extension, the entire Chargers' offense.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Philip Rivers

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 10:05 AM

TNF - Rams at Seahawks
December 15, 2016

Los Angeles at Seattle (-16, 38.5), 8:25 pm ET, NBC/NFLN

The Rams will be the biggest underdog of the 2016 NFL season when they take the field against the Seahawks on Thursday night.

It’s not an even close.

L.A. will be getting 16 points at Seattle against a team coming off a 38-10 loss at Green Bay. We’ll see if the number moves some as action comes in throughout Thursday, but this is the figure most shops are going with.

For perspective, consider the winless Browns closed at +11 against Cincinnati on Oct. 23. That’s the highest oddsmakers have gone on them, though they’ll probably be getting more than that in Pittsburgh if the Steelers are still alive in Week 17.

Still, it won’t be 16-to-17 points.

Los Angeles, which closed as a 13-point ‘dog at New England in Week 13, could become the largest underdog since the 2013 Broncos opened as 28-point home favorites against the Jaguars in an early October contest, closing at 26.5. Jacksonville covered.

If this line moves to 17, the Rams will surpass last season’s biggest underdog, the Bears, which closed +16.5 on their Week 3 trip to Seattle. Chicago lost 26-0. The Raiders were 2014’s biggest ‘dogs (+15.5) against the Broncos and lost 47-14. The 49ers were previously this season’s largest underdog, getting 13.5 at Arizona in a Nov. 13 game they lost just 23-20.

How will this go? Well, there’s a reason the Rams are such heavy underdogs, right?

Having fired head coach Jeff Fisher in a surprising move on Monday, L.A. arrived in Seattle on Wednesday. Interim choice John Fassel, the son of veterancoach Jim, who had over 100 games of experience running a sideline and got to a Super Bowl with the Giants once, will be doing this for the first time. Throughout his NFL career, he’s focused on Special teams. He returns having never wanted to replace his friend and former boss, doing so with virtually no time to prepare.

“The only thing is, a short week just accelerates all of the installs, and all of the work,” Fassel told reporters on Monday. “It happened fast. Football, you’ve got to be able to adapt and react and this is one of those situations you can’t really prepare for.”

Road teams whose coaches haven’t been fired have had a difficult time being prepared for the challenge of competing as the visiting team on Thursday nights. Including Kansas City’s win last week over the Raiders, home teams have won 11 of the last 16. Home favorites are 10-1 straight up (7-4 ATS) in that span, with the lone loss coming from Buffalo as a one-point chalk against the Jets in Week 2. That wasn’t exactly a monumental upset.

This certainly would be, since rookie Jared Goff is making just his fifth career start and looking for his first win. Thus far, he’s been able to move the offense at New Orleans, but the Dolphins, Patriots and Falcons all shut him down. The Rams are 0-4 SU/ATS since he was finally promoted to replace Case Keenum as the starter.

Keenum beat the Seahawks in Week 2 to pick up the first Rams home win in L.A. since 1994, but the defense did the heavy lifting in a field goal battle that ended 9-3. If there’s a season sweep – or even a cover – coming, a repeat of Russell Wilson and Seattle’s offense struggling would almost certainly play a large part.

The Seahawks will wrap up the NFC West with a win whether it comes by one point or 41, so they’re not troubled by any pressure of being such a heavy favorite. Coming off its most lopsided loss under Pete Carroll since his first season in 2010, Seattle is merely looking to rebound and certainly anticipating the extended break that awaits between now and Week 16’s Christmas eve home date with Arizona.

Los Angeles Rams
Season win total: 7.5 (Over +175, Under -200)
Odds to win NFC West: N/A to N/A
Odds to win NFC: N/A to N/A
Odds to win Super Bowl: N/A to N/A

Seattle Seahawks
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -145, Under +125)
Odds to win NFC West: N/A to N/A
Odds to win NFC: 2/1 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 9/2 to 11/4

LINE MOVEMENT

When the season began, Seattle was the betting favorite to win the NFC (4/1), sharing honors with Arizona and Green Bay. Among Super Bowl LI odds (8/1), they trailed only New England (6/1). Despite being crushed by the Packers, they remain behind only the Cowboys among NFC favorites, albeit less enthusiastically. The Rams were 50/1 to win the NFC and 100/1 to win it all, ranking among the league's bottom four.

Divisional odds initially released way back at the beginning of May had Seattle at 5/7 just ahead of the Cards (7/5), while the Rams were set at 10/1. The chart above tells you where they are now in relation to this time last week, with Rams stuff off the board due to their elimination. Seattle clinches the NFC West with a win, so they're set to cash that future with three games left. On win totals, Seattle has to win out to pay off the OVER, while the Rams have already clinched an UNDER.

As far as this matchup is concerned, it's definitely interersting that the advanced line was set at Seahawks -12.5 when released on Dec. 6, and initially opened at -14 before being jacked up to the current number. The total opened at 40 but is set at 38.5 virtually everywhere. Some 39s are available.

POOPFEST OR PICASSO?

While it’s understandable that the Rams are being faded given all the uncertainty and baggage they carry into town, it takes two to get a blowout. The Seahawks should be steaming after Sunday’s effort, but Richard Sherman didn’t exactly inspire confidence as to what form his team will bring to the table.

“Poopfest,” was to how Sherman described the TNF product. “That’s terrible. You play, and you got home at 1 AM or something like that on Monday and then you have to play again. Congratulations, NFL. You did it again. But they’ve been doing it all season, so I guess we’re the last ones to get the middle finger.”

That’s not accurate only because we have one of these next week when the Giants visit Philadelphia, but there’s no denying that these Thursday games have largely been terrible. Either one team has struggled mightily, or both have. There have been some competitive contests, but no instant classics. I’ll go out on a limb that this one won’t be either. Weather isn’t expected to be a major factor. It will be cold, with temperatures in the 30s, but rain should stay away.

The Seahawks do have the opportunity to get healthy at home, perhaps creating some confidence for a new-look secondary that needs to generate some confidence via positive live reps without Earl Thomas.

Goff comes in with few real weapons, the best of whom criticized the attack as a middle-school offense. That would be RB Todd Gurley, who is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, the worst clip among the league’s top 20 rushers. After notching five games where he ran for at least 128 yards as a rookie, his sophomore season-high is the 85 he managed on a season-high 27 carries in Week 3 at Tampa Bay. There just hasn’t been much room to work with, partially because teams haven’t respected the passing game. In Week 2, Seattle held him to 2.7 yards per carry.

Goff threw for a season-best 235 yards last week, completing 24-of-41 in a 42-14 home loss to the Falcons. Even with Thomas sidelined, he’ll be facing the top secondary he’s seen this season. Counterpart Russell Wilson has thrown two touchdowns against eight interceptions over his last three games, so even though he’s definitely moving much better than he did operating on a bad ankle and a bum knee in Week 2, he’s not in a groove throwing it.

A poopfest could be a definite possibility if both quarterbacks continue to stink it up. Your eyes will already burning since the Seahawks are sporting their obnoxiously neon green "Color Rush" uniforms. Regardless of how poorly they play, L.A. will definitely look better in its sharper white and blue throwback ensemble.

INJURY CONCERNS

While Thomas will be impossible to replace after being placed on IR to start the month, Seattle is in decent shape from a health standpoint elsewhere. RB CJ Prosise has been ruled out due to a shoulder injury, which leaves Thomas Rawls and Alex Collins to run the ball against L.A.'s third-ranked rush defense. DE Demontre Moore won't play due to a foot issue.

The Rams aren't likely to have elite DE Robert Quinn available with him missing another game due to concussion issues. Eugene Sims should again start in his place, so star DT Aaron Donald won't have one of his tag-team partners up front. Corner EJ Gaines and safety Maurice Alexander will be absent, as will backup RB Benny Cunningham.

RECENT MEETINGS (Los Angeles 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)

9/18/16 Los Angeles 9-3 vs. Seattle (SEA -5.5, 38)
12/27/15 St. Louis 23-17 at Seattle (SEA -11.5, 41.5)
9/13/15 St. Louis 34-31 vs. Seattle (SEA -3.5, 41.5)
12/28/14 Seattle 20-6 vs. St. Louis (SEA -11, 41.5)
10/19/14 St. Louis 28-26 vs. St. Louis (SEA -6.5, 44)

PROPS

Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that first score being a field goal.

Will Rams ever have the lead?: (+115 yes, -135 no)
Russell Wilson completions 22.5: (-110 o/u)
Jared Goff completions 17.5: (-110 o/u)
Will Jimmy Graham score TD?: (+155 yes, -175 no)
Russell Wilson TD passes 1.5: (+105 over, -125 under)
Jared Goff TD passes+INT 2: (-150 over, +130 under)
Total combined sacks 5: (+100 over, -175 under)
First score of game will be: (-130 TD, +110 other)
Total points: Seahawks 26.5, Rams 11.5 (-110 o/u)

RAMS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

L.A. won its first two games as a road dog, beating the Bucs and Cards. They lost just 31-28 at Detroit on Oct. 16, but have been outscored 75-31 by the Saints and Patriots in their last two outings in this role. The Rams were 2-4 SU/2-3-1 ATS as a road 'dog last year, including a 23-17 Week 16 win in Seattle (+11.5).

SEAHAWKS AS A HOME FAVORITE

The Seahawks will be a home favorite in every game this season and is 6-0 SU/3-2-1 ATS entering their final two regular-season dates at CenturyLink Field. Seattle went 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS in this role last season, going 3-1 as a double-digit favorite. Yep, the loss came to the Rams.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 16 has the Seahawks as 7.5-point home favorites against the Cardinals. The Rams are favored by 3.5 back home in a divisional game against lowly San Francisco.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2016, 06:23 PM

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LA at SEA 08:25 PM

SEA -15.5 *****

U 39.0 *****

MY PREDICTION:

SEATTLE 27

LARAMS 7

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2016, 01:26 AM

Seahawks' Lockett unlocks Rams' defense
December 16, 2016

SEATTLE -- Usually, Tyler Lockett is third in the pecking order of Seattle Seahawks wide receivers. On Thursday, though, he took advantage of a rare start to finish with seven receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown.

The score came on a 57-yard bomb from Russell Wilson in the fourth quarter to provide the final points in the Seahawks' 24-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Lockett tied a personal single-game high for receptions and set a new mark for receiving yards.

The second-year pro also added two kick returns for 48 yards and two punt returns for 16 yards.

Wilson said the deep ball to Lockett was exactly the sort of play his team needs to start hitting more frequently as the playoffs inch closer.

"Plays like that are crucial. We want to be in attack mode," Wilson said. "(Lockett's) a tremendous player. The great thing about our offense is we have so many different guys."

--Lockett's contributions were needed considering the difficulty the Seahawks encountered in the ground game. Running back Thomas Rawls carried the ball 21 times for just 34 yards. Punter Jon Ryan, who gained 26 yards on a mad dash up the middle on a fake punt, was nearly the team's leading rusher.

"We were counting on that for our rushing yardage," Seattle coach Pete Carroll joked.

One major reason for the tough sledding: the Rams' fearsome front four. Defensive tackles Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald were able to get consistent penetration against the Seahawks' offensive line.

"Those guys are really tough up front, you saw how hard it was for us to run the football," Carroll said. "But we were determined to keep doing it."

--Despite the firing of coach Jeff Fisher and the team's underwhelming 4-10 record, the Rams made clear that they have no intention of letting up.

"The last couple weeks, we've just got to find a way to finish out strong because that's what we want to do," center Tim Barnes said. "The guys in this room don't quit."

Interim coach John Fassel's debut didn't go quite how the former special teams coordinator hoped. Still, he saw positive signs.

"It was an emotional couple days leading up to the game," Fassel said. "I told the guys afterward I was super proud of them. ... With two weeks left, we've just got to do what we do best, which is prepare and stick together and finish strong."

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2016, 01:29 AM

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:

12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/15/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 115-130-8 46.94% -14000

O/U Picks 116-130-6 47.15% -13500

Triple Plays:..... 62 - 64 - 4

BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 6 - 2

12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13

Announcement

The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

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