The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Kuechly ruled out vs. Chargers
December 10, 2016

Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly remains in the NFL concussion protocol and will not play in Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers, the team announced Saturday.

The ruling again raises questions about his future beyond Sunday.

Kuechly missed the last two games after suffering a concussion against the New Orleans Saints on Nov. 17. He was a full participant in Friday's practice for the first time since the injury and met with the medical stuff on Saturday.

Coach Ron Rivera was hopeful Friday that Kuechly would pass the final test in the protocol with an independent neurologist and be able to play.

This will be the second straight season the Pro Bowl linebacker has missed at least three games due to a concussion. Kuechly missed three games last season after sustaining a Week 1 concussion.

The Panthers (4-8) need Kuechly's service as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. Carolina allowed 534 yards in last Sunday's 40-7 loss to the Seattle Seahawks and gave up 75 points and 900 yards in the two games he missed.

Fourth-year linebacker A.J. Klein is expected to start in Kuechly's place again.

--The New York Giants activated running back Shane Vereen from the injured reserve list for Sunday night's home game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Vereen has missed the last nine games with a triceps injury suffered in Week 3 against the Washington Redskins. The six-year veteran underwent surgery and returned to practice last week when he was designated for return from IR.

Vereen participated in his first padded practice on Thursday since the surgery.

--The Cleveland Browns signed cornerback Jamar Taylor to a three-year contract extension.

The deal is worth $15 million, a league source told Cleveland.com. It includes a $3 million signing bonus and $10.05 million over the first two years.

Taylor, who was set to become a free agent after this season, was acquired by the Browns in a draft day trade with Miami in 2013 after being picked in the second round by the Dolphins.

--The Denver Broncos promoted linebacker Quentin Gause from their practice squad and placed wide receiver Marlon Brown on injured reserve.

Brown was signed by the Broncos three weeks ago after he was out while recovering from a back injury. He was not active in the Broncos' previous two games.

The 6-foot, 243-pound Gause is an undrafted rookie from Rutgers who spent the last eight weeks on Denver's practice squad.

--The Buffalo Bills promoted linebacker Bryson Albright from their practice squad to the active roster.

The 6-foot-5, 225-pound Albright is expected to be part of the team's kick and punt coverage units for Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Albright has spent time on both the Bills' 53-man roster and practice squad this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Sunday action report: Steelers most popular bet of Week 14

“A lot of people are taking notice that the Steelers are playing their best football of season, having won and covered three straight."

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -4.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5.

The logjam of mediocrity atop the AFC South will clear up a little bit with this matchup. Indianapolis (6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has won three of its last four to stay in contention for the division title. Last week, the Colts blasted the New York Jets 41-10 as a 1-point road underdog in the Monday nighter.

Houston has seen its division lead slip away due to a three-game SU and ATS purge. The Texans (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) went to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point road pup and exited with a 21-13 loss.

“The Colts opened the game as a 4.5-point favorite. Remember, that was before the domination of the Jets,” Simbal said, noting the line was at 6 by Thursday morning and 6.5 later that day. “People really backing Andrew Luck, who looks to be healthy.”

Indeed, Luck returned from a concussion to go a very solid 22 of 28 for 278 yards and four TDs against New York.

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins – Open: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: +1; Move: +2

Miami’s betting stock apparently took a hit after its six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) came crashing down in Week 13. The Dolphins (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) were on the wrong end of a 38-6 beatdown at Baltimore as a 3.5-point pup.

Arizona (5-6-1 SU, 4-8 ATS) is very close to the tipping point of having nothing left to play for this season. The Cardinals apparently realized that last week, beating a good Washington team 31-23 laying 2.5 points at home.

“Tuesday morning, we got sharp play on Arizona +2.5, so we moved the Cards to +1.5,” Jerome said. “Thursday afternoon, we got sharp play on ‘Zona +1.5, so we moved the Cardinals to -1. The heavy majority of betting cash agrees with the sharps, so on Thursday night, we moved Arizona to the current number of -2.

“One reason I can see why the line has moved so much is that the Dolphins are now going to be without one of their most important people on offense, with center Mike Pouncey out indefinitely with a hip injury.”

At CG’s books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, M and the Venetian, the Dolphins opened -2.5 and were down to -1 by Thursday morning. The line flipped to Arizona -1 by Thursday afternoon and -2 that night.

“People really backing Arizona after their good performance against Washington,” Simbal said.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – Open: -9; Move: -8; Move: -7.5

Detroit is two games clear of the rest of the NFC North, a big surprise considering that this is normally Green Bay’s territory and that Minnesota started the year 5-0. The Lions (8-4 SU and ATS) rolled to a 28-13 upset of New Orleans as a 6.5-point road underdog in Week 13, their fourth straight win and seventh in their last eight games (7-1 ATS).

Meanwhile, Chicago is the division doormat at 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS, but is coming off a 26-6 home rout of even more lowly San Francisco in a pick ‘em game.

“Obviously the Lions are playing hot as can be, Bears looked good last week, albeit against the 49ers in terrible weather,” Simbal said. “There has been some early money on the Bears. Maybe that 9 was just a shade too high.”

Simbal said sharp money was the initial driver of the line drop in this division clash.

“Anytime a big favorite goes from 9 to 8 early on, that’s gonna be sharp money,” he said. “Because no fan is really gonna take the Bears in this situation.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills – Open: +1; Move: +2; Move: +3

Pittsburgh is looking to keep pace with Baltimore in the race for the AFC North crown. The Steelers (7-5 SU and ATS) have won and cashed three in a row, including last week’s 24-14 victory over the New York Giants giving 6.5 points at home.

Buffalo (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) had a 24-9 third-quarter lead at Oakland last week, then gave it all away and more in a 38-24 loss getting 3 points.

“Pittsburgh -1 was the first sharp bet we got of the week, so we moved the Steelers to -2,” Jerome said. “Thursday afternoon, we moved Pittsburgh to -3 (even money). I could see us playing with the juice a bit and maybe using 3 flat or 3 -115 on the Steelers, but we definitely won’t move off the number 3.

“A lot of people are taking notice that the Steelers are playing their best football of season, having won and covered three straight. A large majority of cash is backing Pittsburgh on the spread, making the Steelers the most popular NFL bet for week 14.”

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Pick ‘em; Move: +1; Move: +2.5

Washington is struggling to keep itself in the playoff hunt, having dropped its last two games. The Redskins (6-5-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) lost at Arizona last week 31-23 catching 6.5 points.

Philadelphia (5-7 SU and ATS) has lost three in row and five of its last six SU and ATS, including a 32-14 setback at Cincinnati last week getting 2 points.

“On Tuesday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on Washington pick ‘em, so we moved the ‘Skins to -1,” Jerome said. “Then on Friday morning, we got another sharp bet on Washington -1, so we moved the Redskins to the current number of -2.5. I could see us moving to Washington -3 (even) on Sunday, if we keep getting 75 to 80 percent of the cash on Washington.

“For as nice as the Steelers are playing now, the other NFL team from Pennsylvania is trending the wrong way. Carson Wentz is looking like the player that was supposed to back up Sam Bradford, before Bradford was shipped off to Minnesota.”

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular Week 14 picks in Westgate Super Contest

6) Green Bay Packers +2.5 (408)

5) Minnesota Vikings -3 (420)

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (440)

3) Washington Redskins -1 (481)

2) Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (558)

1) Baltimore Ravens +7 (577)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, December 11

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NFL Sunday Night Football betting preview: Cowboys at Giants
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The Cowboys will look to avenge their lone loss of the season when they visit the Giants on Sunday night and are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 47)

The Dallas Cowboys can celebrate numerous victories on Sunday night should they exit MetLife Stadium with a win over the New York Giants. The Cowboys can avenge a season-opening loss to their NFC East rival, extend their gaudy winning streak to 12 games and clinch the NFC East title - and possibly a first-round bye and home-field advantage.

Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have distinguished themselves since the former completed just 25 of 45 passes for 227 yards and the latter labeled his season-low 51-yard, 20-carry performance as "average" in a 20-19 loss to the Giants on Sept. 11. "It does seem like it was forever ago just because we've been through so much more as a team since then and we've grown so much," said Elliott, who tops the league in rushing yards (1,285) and is second in scrimmage yards (1,607). The Giants kept Elliott to a season-low 2.6 yards per carry in that tilt, but saw Le'Veon Bell become the first rusher to reach triple digits against them on Sunday following a 118-yard performance in a 24-14 setback to Pittsburgh. Odell Beckham Jr. did not snag any of Eli Manning's three touchdown passes in the opener, but has found the end zone eight times in his last eight outings.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-5.5) - Giants (-1) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -1.5

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the week as 3-point home dogs and that line rose half-point midweek to 3.5 The total hit the betting board at 47.5 and faded slightly to 47 late in the week. View complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: 'Cowboys will be out to avenge season opening loss to the Giants while New York looks to stay in the playoff chase. Big Blue stands 18-12 SUATS in Sunday night games while Dallas remains focused on maintaining home field advantage. Key will be the quarterback play. '

WEATHER REPORT: The playing conditions for MetLife Stadium won’t be great, with a bit of snow in the evening, followed by rain and temperatures in the low 30’s.

INJURIES:

Cowboys - CB Orlando Scandrick (questionable, foot), DE Jack Crawford (questionable, foot), DE Demarcus Lawrence (questionable, back), T Tyron Smith (questionable, back), OL Chaz Green (questionable, foot), LB Justin Durant (questionable, hamstring), S J.J. Wilcox (questionable, leg), DE Randy Gregory (out indefinitely, suspension)

Giants - TE Larry Donnell (questionable, concussion), WR Dwayne Harris (questionable, ankle), G Justin Pugh (questionable, knee), S Nat Berhe (questionable, concussion), LB Mark Herzlich (questionable, concussion), DE Owa Odighizuma (questionable, knee), CB Coty Sensabaugh (questionable, ribs), DT Johnathan Hankins (questionable, thigh), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (out for season, hernia), RB Shane Vereen (questionable, tricep)

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Dez Bryant limped out of the gate with just one catch for eight yards in the first meeting with the Giants, but the mercurial wideout has gained chemistry with Prescott and reeled in four touchdowns in his last four contests. Veteran tight end Jason Witten acquitted himself well in the opener with nine receptions for 66 yards, but saw his franchise-record games streak with a catch end at 130 in a 17-15 victory over Minnesota last week. Witten will look to exploit a Giants defense that has struggled versus tight ends this season, with the club allowing 63 receptions and 793 yards with three touchdowns.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (8-4 SU, 6-5–1 ATS, 3-9 O/U): Containing Elliott became an even harder chore for New York after news broke that veteran Jason Pierre-Paul will be sidelined at least six weeks following sports hernia surgery. Pierre-Paul registered six tackles and two quarterback hurries in the first meeting with Dallas, although the Giants were unable to register a sack on Prescott. Fellow defensive end Olivier Vernon (team-leading eight sacks) has collected one in six straight and a multiple total in three consecutive contests. Romeo Okwara, Owa Odighizuwa and Kerry Wynn are expected to take on larger roles in Pierre-Paul's absence for the Giants.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 9-2 in Cowboys last 11 road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games overall.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 59 percent of the picking public is grabbing the road favorite Cowboys and the same percentage are grabbing the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 11

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at JAC 01:00 PM

O 38.0

CIN at CLE 01:00 PM

CIN -5.5

U 41.0

PIT at BUF 01:00 PM

BUF +1.5 ******

O 45.5

WAS at PHI 01:00 PM

PHI +1.5 ******

O 48.5

CHI at DET 01:00 PM

CHI +7.5 ******

U 42.0

HOU at IND 01:00 PM

IND -6.5

O 47.5 ******

DEN at TEN 01:00 PM

TEN -1.0

U 44.0

ARI at MIA 01:00 PM

MIA +1.5 ******

U 43.5

SD at CAR 01:00 PM

SD +1.5

U 49.0 ******

NYJ at SF 04:05 PM

NYJ +3.0

U 43.0 *****

SEA at GB 04:25 PM

GB +3.0 ******

O 45.0

NO at TB 04:25 PM

NO +1.5 ******

U 51.0

ATL at LA 04:25 PM

LA +5.0

U 44.5

DAL at NYG 08:30 PM

NYG +3.5 ******

O 46.5 ******

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 14 of the Westgate SuperContest:

6) Green Bay Packers +2.5 (408)- W

5) Minnesota Vikings -3 (420)- W

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (440)- W

3) Washington Redskins -1 (481)- W

2) Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (558)- W

1) Baltimore Ravens +7 (577)

Strong week for popular opinion

Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…..

Titans 13, Broncos 10— Tennessee has to be excited; they’re 7-6, tied for first in AFC South and they have the Rams’ #1 draft pick next year, so they’ll clean up next April and get even better. This was an ugly game; Titans scored 10 points on first two possessions, then held on for the win despite gaining only 178 yards the rest of the game. Mariota was 6-20/88 passing, but his team won. Five of last six Denver games stayed under the total.

Panthers 28, Chargers 16— San Diego turned ball over five times (-4). I have a question: Why can’t the Chargers just stay in San Diego and play in Qualcomm? Why is it better for them to move to LA and be a second rate tenant in a new ballpark? Who will go to their games there? At least in San Diego they have a whole city behind them, buying their gear, Maybe I’m an idiot, but seems to me every NFL team doesn’t need a brand-new stadium.

Texans 22, Colts 17— Houston is tied for first with Titans in AFC South; they ran ball for 185 yards, had 3 takeaways (+2), kicked five FGs- usually when a team scores one TD and kicks five FGs, they lose. Colts are 1-4-1 vs spread this year in game following a win; some teams cannot stand prosperity. This is only second time Texans have won in Indy (2-13). Under is 5-2 in last seven Houston games, 4-0 in Colts’ last four home games.

Bengals 23, Browns 10— I’m still amazed that an NFL franchise is worth roughly $1B, give or take, and the Browns are being run by Jonah Hill’s character from Moneyball. Seriously, why would you have a guy who spent most of the last 15 years as a baseball executive run your NFL team? It makes zero bleeping sense. Cleveland is 1-5-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing home games by 5-20-3-25-15-14-13 points

Steelers 27, Bills 20— Pittsburgh ran ball for 240 yards in the snow, amidst rumors that Rex Ryan is going to get fired. If Ryan and Jeff Fisher both get fired, then maybe their teams can hire coaches who actually care about offense and the league will put out a better product. Pittsburgh has now won/covered its last four games.

Non-football observation: if you’re going to be outside in a snowstorm for 3.5 hours, put on a goddamn coat. Rex Ryan wore same clothes for this game he wore in the LA Coliseum when the Bills played there. Even his brother wore a parka.

Dolphins 26, Cardinals 23— Game was played in a monsoon; Arizona’s kicker had an awful day, but did make a 56-yard FG. Miami kicked FG on last play to win, but they lost QB Tannehill to an ACL injury, so looks like Matt Moore gets to run the ball club the rest of the way- their #3 QB is former Western Kentucky QB Doughty. Arizona needs to draft a QB next spring; Carson Palmer is getting up there in years.

NFC West went 0-4 Sunday, turning ball over 15 times and 49ers didn’t have any turnovers.

Lions 20, Bears 17— Detroit is now 9-4 despite trailing in 4th quarter in 12 of 13 games. You know it might be the Lions’ year when Stafford throws a pick-6 to give Chicago a 17-13 lead with 7:07 left, but Detroit drives back down field to score game-winning TD with 3:17 left. Lions are 6-1 at home with four wins by exactly three points.

Pretty sure I’m going to be in Las Vegas when the NFL schedule comes out for 2017; first thing I’m going to do is bet the under on the Lions’ win total for next year.

Vikings 25, Jaguars 16— Minnesota ran ball 29 times for 85 yards (28 for 70 if you take out one Bradford scramble for 15 yards); they scored only 16 points on five red zone drives, but won anyway. Jaguars are 0-6 at home, have lost eight games in a row (2-6 vs spread). Vikings had been 2-6 this season when they didn’t score a TD on defense/special teams, now they’re 3-6.

Mike Zimmer coached this game with his right eye totally covered by tape; he is one tough human. He wore sunglasses when Minnesota had the ball, but took them off so he could read his defensive call charts when Jaguars had the ball. Lot of admiration for coach Zimmer.

Bucs 16, Saints 11— Sean Payton was yukking it up two weeks ago when he ran the score up on the sorry Rams, but since then his team scored a total of 24 points in losses to Detroit, Tampa Bay. New Orleans is 5-8 and going nowhere with an aging QB; they’re 0-6 when they score less than 25 points. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, 2-0-1 in Bucs’ last three.

Tampa Bay has won five games in a row and is looking smart for drafting Jameis Winston.

Redskins 27, Eagles 22— Washington won last five meetings with Philly, with average total in last six series games, 53.8; Eagles scored one offensive TD on 17 drives in two games with Redskins this year. Over is 11-2 in Washington games this season.

Jets 23, 49ers 17 OT— Niners snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, blowing a 17-3 halftime lead, losing their 12th straight game. Bryce Petty gets his first NFL win. Weird that SF was favored in its last two games, despite being an awful team.

I’m wondering if the networks stopped showing Colin Kaepernick kneeling during the National Anthem because he said he didn’t vote on Election Day. Just curious, thats all.

Packers 38, Seahawks 10— Seattle has now lost their last seven visits here; they’re 1-4-1 this season when scoring less than 26 points. Somehow, Green Bay’s defense has revived itself, allowing 36 points in last three games, after allowing 153 points in the four games before that- they had six takeaways in this game. Seattle is 2-4-1 on the road and they’ve fallen out of the #2 slot in the NFC, so they might be going on the road in the second week of the playoffs.

Falcons 42, Rams 14— Observations from this game and with apologies to the Falcons, I’ve got nothing to say about them— picked them last week and they lost.

— Rams should fire their head coach today, just to save everyone three more weeks of aggravation.

— Last three weeks: L21-49, L10-26, L14-42. Unacceptable results. Sometimes divorce is a good thing— just ask my ex-wife (its a joke!!!)

— The next coach should a) be an offensive guru or b) hire an offensive guru to be OC and yes, I’m thinking of Norv Turner, if we go the OC way.

— Find the best offensive line coach in America and pay him a boatload of cash to come to LA.

— They can keep Gregg Williams and John Fassel; defense/special teams ain’t the problem.

— Here are some W-L records of how QBs did their rookie year: Elway 4-6, PManning 3-13, EManning 1-6, Aikman 0-11, Stafford 2-8, Marino 7-2. Playing QB in the NFL is a hard job.

— I pay more money than I should for DirecTV, for one reason; to watch NFL games on Sundays, specifically the Rams. 13 consecutive non-winning seasons is getting my money’s worth.

Giants 10, Cowboys 7— Dak Prescott grew up in Louisiana; wonder if he ever played in a frigid night game before? Dallas is 11-2 with two losses to the Giants by total of four points. If playoffs started tomorrow, NFC Wild Card game would be Bucs @ Giants. AFC would be either Miami/Denver @ Oakland. Last five Giant games stayed under the total.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Ravens at Patriots
December 11, 2016

Two old playoff rivals meet up on Monday night in Foxboro to close out Week 14 of the NFL. The Patriots host the Ravens at Gillette Stadium as both these teams are looking at January football. New England is on pace to grab home-field advantage in the AFC, while Baltimore is in a tug-of-war atop the AFC North with Pittsburgh coming down the stretch.

LAST WEEK

New England (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) extended its winning streak to three games after beating Los Angeles, 26-10 as 13-point favorites. The Patriots scored two early touchdowns then relied on the right leg of Stephen Gostkowski to connect on four field goals. Tom Brady threw only one touchdown pass, while compiling less than 300 yards passing for the third straight game (269 yards). The Patriots held their third straight opponent to below 17 points, resulting in a third consecutive UNDER.

Baltimore (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) improved to 4-1 the last five games after blasting Miami, 38-6 as 3 ½-point favorites. Ravens’ quarterback Joe Flacco diced up the Dolphins’ defense for 381 yards and four touchdowns, while Baltimore intercepted Miami three times in its fourth consecutive victory at M&T Bank Stadium. During this 4-1 run, Baltimore’s defense has stepped up by allowing 14 points or less in each of the past four wins, as the Ravens are 4-1 to the UNDER in this stretch.

SERIES HISTORY

These teams last met in the 2014 divisional playoffs in Foxboro as the Patriots held off the Ravens, 35-31. Baltimore cashed as seven-point road underdogs, but squandered a pair of 14-point leads, including a 28-14 third quarter advantage. Brady connected with Brandon LaFell on a 28-yard touchdown strike with 5:13 remaining in the fourth quarter to give New England its only lead of the game, but that was good enough to reach the AFC Championship and eventually the Super Bowl.

The Ravens have won four of the last seven matchups with the Patriots since the 2009 Wild Card game in which Baltimore blew out New England, 33-14. Baltimore owns a 4-0-1 ATS record in its last five trips to New England, while four of the past six meetings overall have been decided by four points or less.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Patriots opened as seven-point favorites (-120) last Tuesday at the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook, but that number has dropped to 6 ½ at most books. The total currently sits at 45 as temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30’s with clear conditions in Foxboro on Monday.

ROAD WOES

Since starting the season with road victories at Cleveland and Jacksonville, the Ravens have failed to win on the highway in their last three tries. Two of those losses came in back-to-back weeks at Met Life Stadium against the Giants and Jets in October, while the latest road setback came at Dallas in Week 11 by 10 points, 27-17. Flacco has thrown only two touchdowns and has been picked off six times in five road games this season, as Baltimore owns a 1-4 ATS mark away from M&T Bank Stadium.

PRIMETIME PATRIOTS

New England has won four of its past six Monday night contests since the start of 2012, while making its first Monday night appearance this season. In the last three Monday night home games in this span, the Patriots have won by scores of 34-3, 42-14, and 20-13, with that seven-point victory coming over the Bills last season.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says Baltimore has held its own over the years against New England, “Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have played the Patriots about as well as anyone with a 3-5 (4-3-1 ATS) mark though more importantly winning two of four playoff meetings (4-0 ATS). Baltimore has a home game with Philadelphia up next before division road games in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to close the season as the Ravens are a strong candidate to fall out of the AFC playoff picture completely with the Wild Card path less likely.”

Meanwhile, the Patriots have taken advantage of weak competition according to Nelson, “Since the home loss to Seattle in mid-November, the Patriots have won three in a row but they faced three losing teams and didn’t win all that convincingly facing the 49ers, Jets, and Rams scoring just 26 points per game. Losing Rob Gronkowski changes the offense and the numbers paint a clear decline for the offense the past few seasons in the games their star tight end has missed.”

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Baltimore

J. Flacco – Total Gross Passing Yards
257 ½ - OVER (-110)
257 ½ - UNDER (-110)

J. Flacco – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+110)
1 ½ - UNDER (-130)

M. Wallace – Total Receiving Yards
54 ½ - OVER (-110)
54 ½ - UNDER (-110)

New England

T. Brady – Total Completions
25 ½ - OVER (-110)
25 ½ - UNDER (-110)

T. Brady – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (-120)
2 – UNDER (Even)

L. Blount – Total Rushing Yards
64 ½ - OVER (-110)
64 ½ - UNDER (-110)

NEXT WEEK

The Patriots travel to Denver for an AFC Championship rematch in Week 15 as the Westgate Superbook opened New England as three-point road favorites. The Ravens host the Eagles as Baltimore has yet to beat an NFC opponent this season. The Westgate opened Baltimore as 6 ½-point favorites.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:

12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 114-129-8 46.91% -13950

O/U Picks 115-129-6 47.13% -13450

Triple Plays:..... 59 - 63 - 4

BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 6 - 2

12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, December 12

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NFL Monday Night Football betting preview: Ravens at Patriots
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The Patriots own a deceptive 7-1 regular-season record in the series against the Ravens, who have been a major nemesis for New England and quarterback Tom Brady.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-6.5, 44.5)

The New England Patriots did not even have to take the field to seize control of their postseason destiny and they can solidify the front-running status when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. Oakland's loss to Kansas City on Thursday night put the Patriots one-half game up for the No. 1 seed in the AFC entering the final quarter of the season.

New England has won three in a row and can wrap up the AFC East title for an eight consecutive season -- which would be an NFL record -- with a win over Baltimore and a loss by Miami. The Patriots own a deceptive 7-1 regular-season record in the series against the Ravens, who have been a major nemesis for New England and quarterback Tom Brady. Four of the last six meetings (playoffs included) have been decided by four points or fewer and Baltimore owns a pair of postseason victories over the Patriots in Foxborough, Mass. The stakes are equally high for the Ravens, who are tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North but currently hold the tiebreaker over the Steelers.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-1.5) - Patriots (-6) + home field (-3) = Patriots -7.5

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 7.5-point home favorites and the public quickly jumped on Baltimore's historical success against Tom Brady and the Pats - puching the line down to -6.5 by Sunday. The total hit the board at 46 and came all of the way down to 44.5. View complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Gillette Stadium on Monday night is calling for foggy, damp conditions with temperatures in the mid-30's. There will also be a 9-10 mph wind blowing just to make the conditions even more unpleasant.

INJURIES:

Ravens - G M. Yanda (Questionable, shoulder), TE C. Gilmore (Questionable, thigh), RB L. Taliaferro (Questionable, thigh), RB J. Allen (Questionable, personal), CB T. Young (Questionable, shoulder), G A. Lewis (Early Jan, ankle), TE B. Watson (I-R, achilles), DT W. Henry (I-R, undisclosed), CB M. Canady (I-R, hamstring), S K. Lewis (I-R, thigh), CB S. Price (I-R, thigh), TE M. Williams (I-R, knee), WR C. Matthews (I-R, undisclosed), G D. Wesley (I-R, undisclosed), DT C. Davis (I-R, ankle), DE B. Kaufusi (I-R, ankle), T S. Nembot (I-R, undisclosed), CB K. Arrington (I-R, concussion), LB C. Luckett (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Rolle (I-R, achilles), WR K. Clay (I-R, foot).

Patriots - TE M. Bennett (Probable, ankle), QB T. Brady (Probable, knee), LB E. Roberts (Questionable, hamstring), DL W. Hamilton (Questionable, leg), WR M. Slater (Questionable, foot), DB J. Richards (Questionable, knee), DB E. Rowe (Questionable, hamstring), WR D. Amendola (Out, ankle), G T. Jackson (Questionable, knee), QB J. Brissett (Questionable, thumb), TE R. Gronkowski (I-R, back), T S. Vollmer (I-R, knee), LB J. Freeny (I-R, shoulder), TE G. Scruggs (knee).

ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U): Baltimore improved to 4-1 in its last five games following its most impressive victory of the season, a 38-6 demolition of Miami last week that snapped the Dolphins' six-game winning streak. Muddling through a season of mediocrity to that point, quarterback Joe Flacco established season highs with 381 yards passing and four touchdowns while setting a franchise record with 36 completions. Tight end Dennis Pitta had nine catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns, part of a unit that features veteran Steve Smith, speedster Mike Wallace and promising Breshad Perriman at wide receiver. The Ravens have the league's top-ranked defense (296.1 yards per game) and rank No. 1 against the run (73.8 yards).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-8 O/U): New England has won three in a row, although the combined record of those opponents entering Week 13 is 8-28. Brady has 19 touchdown passes versus only one interception since returning from his four-game suspension, but he is without his No. 1 receiving target in tight end Rob Gronkowski and has 12 scoring passes versus 11 picks in 10 career games (playoffs included) versus Baltimore. Rookie Malcolm Mitchell continues to emerge as a bigger threat in the passing game with a season-high eight receptions in last week's 26-10 win over Los Angeles while LeGarrette Blount is 43 yards shy of his second 1,000-yard season. The Patriots' defense is tied with Baltimore with 17.3 points allowed -- second in the NFL.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
* Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Road team is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 52 percent of the picking public is grabbing the road underdog Ravens and 58 percent are taking the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

Books capture Week 14 win
December 12, 2016

The Las Vegas sport books all had mixed results in Week 14 NFL action Sunday, but the thing every book was united with was they needed the New York Giants to cover Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys to call the day a win, break even or lessen the losses.

"We're up a little on the day, but the late game risk will give a lot back," said MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood prior to kickoff.

"If we lose with the Dallas game, we'll make a ham sandwich on the day."

Rood brought in a classic old school bookmaking term 'ham sandwich' reference regarding a small win for the day most often used famously by Jerry "Shoes" Zimny, which means the book will basically make enough cash on to buy a ham sandwich.

Chris Andrews took it one step lower with an old school term by saying his South Point sports book "will make a peanut" with a Giants cover. One peanut, wow! Now that's a small win.

John Avello at the Wynn Las Vegas book said "We can probably eek out a win (with the Giants) or get buried (with Dallas covering)."

After sweating out each and every score of the first 13 Sunday games, a span of six-and-a-half hours, once again all that stress of trying to break a lengthy losing streak was for naught and came down to another late game to deciding the fate of their day.

The entire city got their wish with the Giants covering (+4) and the total staying 'under' (46.5) in a 10-7 outright win, but most book bosses were feeling greedy hoping for the ultimate decision with Dallas winning by 1-to-3 points to knock out the Giants money-line payouts of +170.

"We were kind of hoping for our best scenario, like we're usually in with the Super Bowl where we want the favorite to win, but not cover," said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay.

It was a small window of opportunity for the books that didn't happen, but what they get was the Cowboys to finally lose after 11 straight wins following a Week 1 loss to the same Giants. It was the third straight game the Cowboys accelerated rating did not cover the spread after covering nine straight.

The result now gives bettors something extra to think about in the final three weeks of the regular season rather than simply taking Dallas on almost every parlay played in the city. Sharps have been cashing the last three weeks by betting against the Cowboys inflated numbers, but just like the books they're having trouble cashing on a few other teams.

The winless Browns failed to cover again for the seventh straight week in a 23-10 home loss to the Bengals. The books opened high with Cincinnati -6 and sharps took the 2.5-points of perceived value, again, and pushed the number all the way down to -4.5 by kickoff. However, the public didn't care what the number was, they just wanted whoever was playing against the Browns and they were correct again.

Betting against bad teams has been the public's winning strategy weekly and the books keep inflating numbers against them, but not enough. However, one of the bad teams showed up in Week 14 to help avoid a total disaster.

The Chicago Bears (+7) got a cover at Detroit in a 20-17 loss -- helping the books, but they got no help elsewhere.

The San Francisco 49ers once again looked awful in a 23-17 overtime loss to the New York Jets, after jumping out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead. With Bryce Petty starting at QB for the Jets, 49ers money came strong from the sharps pushing them from -1 to -3.

The team that is beginning to fall to low rating depths similar the the Browns is Los Angeles with Jared Goff starting at QB. Sharp money bet the Rams +7 all the way down to +4.5, but the Atlanta Falcons struck quick and often in 42-14 win sending the Rams to their fourth consecutive loss and non-cover. The Falcons were the most one-sided bet game at William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada with 89 percent of the tickets written.

Overall, favorites went 8-6 against the spread on the day with five underdogs winning outright and the 'under' went 9-5, and surprisingly, two of the cold weather games at Pittsburgh and Green Bay managed to barely be two of the 'over' winners.

It's back to the drawing board for the books in an attempt to end one of the worst NFL stretches in Las Vegas history and right out of the gate they get to hold their breath with the Rams at Seattle on Thursday night where the high number in town is -14 at the Stratosphere, which offers about 3-point of value.

The Rams beat the Seahawks, 9-3, in Week 2, but the public will still lay whatever number is posted with Seattle.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 12

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BAL at NE 08:30 PM

BAL +6.0 *****

U 45.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots get big win, continue to inch toward playoffs
December 13, 2016

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) By the time the Patriots took the field Monday night against the Ravens, they knew they'd have to wait at least another week to wrap up their eighth consecutive playoff berth.

It didn't stop New England from producing a postseason-quality effort.

The Patriots overcame a pair of miscues on special teams and provided some timely offense late to beat the Baltimore Ravens 30-23 on Monday night .

New England enters its final three regular season games in great position for an eighth straight AFC East crown.

''We just gotta keep it rolling,'' Patriots safety Devin McCourty said. ''That's whether you want to call it a playoff game, must-win, or any of that stuff. Once you get into December and toward the end of December, every game is important. There's really no rebounding and trying to fix things. You want to try and play your best ball every time you go out there and play.''

Of course, that kind of consistency is common practice for New England's 39-year-old quarterback.

Tom Brady carved up the NFL's top-ranked defense for 406 yards passing and three touchdowns, saving his best for last with a 79-yard strike to Chris Hogan in the fourth quarter.

He became just fourth NFL quarterback with at least 450 career touchdown passes.

''We weren't clicking early, but that happens in football,'' Brady said. ''I'm glad we found a way to make some plays. A lot of guys contributed. ... It was a big win for us.''

For the Ravens, it will be a short turnaround as they try to salvage their playoff hopes over the final three weeks. It begins with their final regular season home game against the Eagles on Sunday, followed by road tests at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

Baltimore is currently one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North.

''It doesn't really matter what our record is,'' quarterback Joe Flacco said. ''We've just got to win our games.''

FOCUSED ON PHILLY

Coach John Harbaugh said coming up short against the Patriots won't deter the Ravens from doing all they can to stay in the division hunt. That begins, he said, with putting all their focus into the matchup with Philadelphia.

''We know where we stand and the situation we are in. And that we basically have to win three games, you know, and (we are) certainly fully capable of doing that. That's what we intend to do, but all the focus goes to the next game,'' Harbaugh said.

BLOUNT FORCE

Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount picked up a pair of milestones in the game, topping 1,000 yards for the season and collecting his 14th touchdown. A 1-yard TD run in the first quarter gave the Patriots a 9-0 lead and tied the franchise record set by Curtis Martin in 1995 (and matched by Martin in '96).

Blount ended the game with 1,029 yards this season, topping the 1,007 from his rookie season with Tampa Bay in 2010. He's the first 1,000-yard rusher for the team since Stevan Ridley had 1,263 in 2012.

SAYONARA, CYRUS

Cyrus Jones continues to have problems returning kicks.

After dancing away from the football in the first half to avoid a fumble, he touched a bouncing punt with his foot in the second and allowed the Ravens to recover at the New England 3. Two plays later, the Ravens scored to make it 23-10.

It was the fifth fumble of the season for Jones, who sat out four times in six weeks as a healthy scratch because of his earlier struggles to hold onto the ball.

''We turned the ball over three times tonight. Three situations that I would say were pretty preventable,'' Belichick said. ''We'll work on it with everybody. It's everybody's job to protect the ball who handles it.''

SCORING DEFENSE

New England's defense was the first unit to get on the scoreboard Monday night. Patriots punter Ryan Allen pinned the Ravens at their own 1, and on the next play, Kenneth Dixon was swarmed in the end zone and brought down by Malcolm Butler for a safety.

It was the Patriots' third safety of the season - a franchise record. They also had one on Oct. 9 against Cleveland when Browns quarterback Cody Kessler fumbled the ball out of the end zone, and the following week when Dont'a Hightower sacked Andy Dalton in the end zone.

[StarDust Bum]

Rams fire coach Jeff Fisher after 42-14 loss to Falcons
December 12, 2016

LOS ANGELES (AP) Jeff Fisher's tenure in Los Angeles didn't last one full season.

The Rams fired Fisher on Monday and elevated special teams coordinator John Fassel to interim coach. The Rams are 4-9 heading into Thursday night's game at NFC West-leading Seattle.

Fisher had been the team's coach since 2012, and compiled a 31-45-1 record with the Rams. He oversaw the move from St. Louis to Los Angeles this past offseason.

The lack of success on the field, capped by a 42-14 home rout by Atlanta on Sunday, spelled the end for Fisher, who is tied with Dan Reeves for most regular-season losses in NFL history with 165. Fisher has the lowest winning percentage (.512) among coaches with 130-plus losses.

Los Angeles has scored a league-low 194 points this season.

''Making a decision such as this, especially during the season, is one of the most difficult in sports,'' Rams owner Stan Kroenke said.

''I have great respect for Jeff as a coach, person, father and friend. He has worked tirelessly despite some challenging circumstances. He played an integral role in helping this team make history in returning the NFL to Los Angeles, and we always will be grateful for his commitment and dedication to our organization.''

Fisher, 58, went 147-126 as coach of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans and helped that franchise in its relocation. He led the Titans to the 1999 AFC championship.

Long respected in league circles for his work on the NFL's competition committee, Fisher never found success - or a franchise quarterback - with the Rams, who went 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10 and 7-9 in his four full seasons.

They traded up for the first selection in this year's draft and took California's Jared Goff, but he rode the bench for much of the season behind journeyman Case Keenum as Los Angeles jumped out to a 3-1 start. Fisher finally turned to Goff in Week 11 and the Rams have dropped all four of his starts.

''Some of the performances the past few weeks have been a little bit more lopsided,'' said Kevin Demoff, the Rams' executive vice president.

''I think that's what really tipped it. This is solely a performance-related issue. For the fans, for the players, for the coaches, for the organization we wanted to make sure games like (Sunday) didn't happen again.''

Kroenke said in his statement that ''this is the right time to make a change as our performance has not lived up to my or our fans' expectations. We all are focused on improving as an organization and building a team that makes Los Angeles proud. Our mission is to celebrate a Super Bowl title with our fans in Los Angeles. Today is the first step to bringing us closer to that goal.''

Oddly, Kroenke gave Fisher a contract extension before the season, though it was not made public until recently.

Now, that extension looks more like a bonus to Fisher for his role in aiding the organization's move to California than being any part of a plan for the team's future.

Demoff would not commit on general manager Les Snead keeping his position, either.

''Starting today we are going to have a complete review of the entire organization. We sat down with Les, and again this team is not where it needs to be,'' he said.

Fisher spoke to the team Monday before the firing was announced, and players reacted to his dismissal with a mix of guilt, frustration and anger.

''We didn't do enough for him,'' Goff said. ''Unfortunately, it falls on him, but us in the locker room blame ourselves and need to be better.''

The Rams barely had time to process the news before beginning preparations to play the Seahawks on a short week under Fassel.

Fassel, 42, joined the Rams after spending the past three years as special teams coordinator in Oakland. He also has worked for the Ravens.

He is the son of Jim Fassel, who coached the Giants to the 2000 NFC title.

Attendance has been something of an issue at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, which has a listed capacity of 93,607. Only in their home opener did they approach that number, and they drew 82,495 on Sunday.

That's still a high number, but their performance against Atlanta isn't likely to help sell more tickets for their remaining two home games.

But Demoff said the timing of Fisher's dismissal had nothing to do with appeasing the frustrated fan base.

''The best marketing is winning,'' Demoff said.

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 15
December 12, 2016

Here are the opening point spreads for Week 15 of the 2016 NFL season, with insight from two Las Vegas oddsmakers – the South Point’s Chris Andrews and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s Ed Salmons.

Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night. Early line moves and differences among sports books are also noted.

Thursday, Dec. 15

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)

Seattle -12.5, the first number posted in Las Vegas (Westgate), wasn’t big enough for bettors’ tastes, as it was pushed to -13.5 within the first hour of wagering. The betting market apparently is fading the Rams’ embarrassing showing Sunday, a 42-14 home loss to the Falcons, more than the Seahawks’ forgettable performance, a 38-10 loss at Green Bay.

Sunday was the first time since 2011, the year before Russell Wilson came into the league, that the Seahawks lost by more than 10 points. But they also lost at Tampa Bay two weeks ago by nine, 14-5.

“I don’t want to jump conclusions because they are really good, but they have had holes in their game all year,” Andrews said of Seattle. “Their offensive line is not that good, they haven’t run the ball consistently in a lot of games...At some point, you’ve got to quit ignoring those danger signs, because we’ve been looking for them all year, but they haven’t really come to fruition until these last couple of weeks.”

Salmons added, “Usually Pete Carroll’s team play great in December, so it’s really hard to justify (Sunday’s) performance. It was just awful, especially defensively. Earl Thomas (safety, out for the season) is probably their best defensive player, but Green Bay has been so bad all year, and they looked good today, and it was more Seattle than them.”

All that said, Seattle is 6-0 at home and lays the biggest number on the Week 15 card.

Saturday, Dec. 17

Miami Dolphins (-3 even) at New York Jets

Miami remains in the thick of the playoff race but will have to go the rest of the way without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who suffered a torn ACL in Sunday’s win over Arizona. Matt Moore, who’s been in the league nine seasons but hasn’t gotten a lot of reps over the past five years, takes over.

The dropoff from Tannehill to Moore is worth about 2 points to the betting line, Andrews estimated.

“I’m not the biggest Tannehill fan, but he is their quarterback and they’ve built everything around him the past couple years, so it’s gotta be worth at least a couple of points,” Andrews said.

Sunday, Dec. 18

Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)

CG posted Dallas -8 and the Westgate hung -8.5 before the Cowboys lost at the Giants on Sunday night. The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, and bookmakers continue to make bettors lay big numbers to back them.

Meanwhile, both oddsmakers we spoke to are impressed with Tampa’s D, which held the Saints and Seahawks without a touchdown over the last three weeks.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4.5)

Detroit has won five in row and eight of their last nine, but Salmons isn’t sold.

“I don’t know how they have the record they have,” Salmons said. “They really could have lost that game at home (to the Bears on Sunday). They’re an average team.”

The Lions, though, did have some takers for next week’s game at the Giants at the Westgate’s original number.

“We put that line up 5.5 and they bet us down to 4.5, which we knew they would,” Salmons said. “We just wanted to see how high we could go.”

Matthew Stafford’s status bears watching. He tore ligaments in the middle finger of his throwing hand Sunday and continued to play but with a glove on his hand.

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-6)

CG Technology opened Baltimore -5.5 but soon joined the rest of the market at -6.

Green Bay Packers (-5) at Chicago Bears

Left for dead a few weeks ago, the Packers have won three straight games.

Green Bay was bet from -4.5 to -5 Sunday night at the Westgate for next week’s trip to Chicago. The Packers have owned the Bears in recent seasons, winning 13 of the last 16 meetings and covering the spread in 14 of the last 18.

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)

The Westgate bounced between Minnesota -4 and -3.5 Sunday night for this inter-conference battle of mediocrity.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-10)

Cleveland has covered only two spreads all season but catches double digits against a Bills team that figures to be motivationally challenged next week.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

The Westgate and William Hill opened Kansas City -6 but moved to -5.5 during Sunday night action. Both of those numbers were available in Las Vegas of this writing.

Andrews was impressed that the Titans beat Denver on Sunday despite an anemic offensive performance, but he doubts they’re ready to compete with the AFC’s best.

“If they can win without (Marcus Mariota) playing great football, that’s a pretty good plus for them,” Andrews said. “I’m not sure they can make a lot of noise in the playoffs, but they’re a good, young, coming team.”

Andrews, though, puts Kansas City near the top of the conference: “I really like Kansas City a lot. I’ve been talking about them since the beginning of the year. I think they’re a real Super Bowl contender.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5)

The Westgate opened Houston -5, William Hill went -6, and the two books met in the middle at -5.5.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

William Hill opened Arizona -3 and moved to -2.5, while CG Technology went from 2.5 to -3 (-105) on Sunday night for this matchup of what have become NFC also-rans.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-12.5)

CG and the Westgate both moved from 11.5 to 12.5, while multiple other books were dealing 13 on Sunday night.

New England Patriots (-3/-120) at Denver Broncos

This AFC showdown may shape up as the classic sharps vs. public at the bet window. In games of the year and advanced wagering at the Westgate, there’s been more wiseguy money on Denver than on New England, but Salmons said, “We know next week we’re gonna need Denver big. The public will bet New England.”

Andrews is concerned about the Broncos, who have lost three of five.

“I think Denver’s got some real problems,” Andrews said. “(Trevor) Siemian didn’t look very good (in Sunday’s loss at Tennessee), and they haven’t been able to run the ball all year. Suddenly, they’re a very desperate team.”

But, he added, “New England’s another team that may not be at their peak all of a sudden.”

Oakland Raiders (-3 even) at San Diego Chargers

As an indication of the way these AFC West rivals are trending, the Raiders were 3.5-point favorites when they beat San Diego in Oakland on October 9. Oakland won 34-31, but failed to cover the spread.

Said Andrews, “Oakland is probably due to come to earth a little bit. They’ve been playing really well, but they’re still a young team that has a few holes. They’ve become a public darling and I’m not sure they’re quite that good yet.”

CG Tech was dealing Oakland -2.5 Sunday night.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3/-120) at Cincinnati Bengals

Similar to the situation discussed just above, Pitt goes from a field-goal favorite at home against Cincy in Week 2 to a field-goal favorite on the road against the division rival. In fact, William Hill was dealing Pitt -3.5 on Sunday.

Monday, Dec. 19

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-4)

The Washington -3.5 that CG hung Sunday lasted less than 20 minutes, and the book moved to -4. There was mix of 4s and 4.5s Sunday night for the Week 15 Monday nighter.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:

12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 114-130-8 46.72% -14500

O/U Picks 115-130-6 46.94% -14000

Triple Plays:..... 60 - 64 - 4

BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 6 - 2

12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13