The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

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SuperContest Picks - Week 13
December 3, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12

Week 13

1) Detroit +6 (564)
2) Atlanta -4 (516)
3) N.Y. Giants +6.5 (515)
4) Green Bay -6.5 (447)
5) Seattle -6.5 (417)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 13 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Dallas (-3) 225 Minnesota (+3) 121

Denver (-4) 302 Jacksonville (+4) 290

Kansas City (+4) 338 Atlanta (-4) 516

Houston (+6.5) 165 Green Bay (-6.5) 447

Philadelphia (PK) 179 Cincinnati (PK) 334

Detroit (+6) 564 New Orleans (-6) 259

San Francisco (+1) 294 Chicago (-1) 173

Los Angeles (+13.5) 234 New England (-13.5) 145

Miami (+3) 267 Baltimore (-3) 381

Buffalo (+3) 396 Oakland (-3) 379

Tampa Bay (+3.5) 325 San Diego (-3.5) 269

Washington (+2.5) 408 Arizona (-2.5) 289

N.Y. Giants (+6.5) 515 Pittsburgh (-6.5) 226

Carolina (+6.5) 151 Seattle (-6.5) 417

Indianapolis (-2) 240 N.Y. Jets (+2) 196

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage

1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
8 3-2 11-23-1 32%
9 2-3 13-26-1 33%
10 0-5 13-31-1 29%
11 3-2 16-33-1 33%
12 5-0 21-33-1 38%

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SNF - Panthers at Seahawks
December 3, 2016

When scanning the schedules for every team before the season started, Sunday night's Week 13 clash with Carolina visiting Seattle was circled as a certain top-5 game of the year. It's been the premier NFC match-up the last two seasons with the regular season meeting being a prelude to a playoff meeting and the winner making a Super Bowl appearance.

However, the Panthers (4-7) resume has fallen well below expectations following a physical Super Bowl loss to Denver. Cam Newton sulked, and the NFL didn't do his team any favors by scheduling a rematch for the first time ever in a Week 1 match-up, which ended in a another Denver win. Newton sulked some more, got beat up some more -- albeit unprotected by the refs, and the Super Bowl slump was underway with a 1-5 start.

Since then Carolina has won three of its last five, but the most noticeable difference, besides Newton not having fun and dabbing weekly, is the team finding ways to lose close games. Their last four losses have been by three points. Last season they found ways to win those games, including a fourth-quarter come back win at Seattle, which helped them gain home field throughout the playoffs.

Playoffs don't look to be in the Panthers future this season, but if Newton can somehow restore his confidence they can at least close out the season respectable and carry something over to 2017.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks (7-3-1) come off a shocking 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay which ended a three-game win streak against strong teams like Buffalo, New England and Philadelphia. Russell Wilson was showing signs that he was close to being 100 percent for the first time this season while continuing a Pete Carroll staple of dominating the second-half of a season. Since 2012, Seattle had gone 31-6 in November and December (one Jan. game) prior to the Tampa loss.

The good news for Seattle is that they get a couple of key defensive performers back from injury this week and the defense, despite not looking as strong as recent seasons, still leads the NFL allowing only 17 ppg. Seattle has won all five of their home games (3-2 ATS).

The Panthers have gone 1-4 on the road (1-3-1 ATS) with four of the games going Over the total. They are currently on a run of going 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games, which is part of the reason the spread keeps rising.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate SuperBook opened Seattle -6.5 last Sunday night and the number briefly went to -7 on Monday, but Carolina money pushed it back down to -6.5. On Thursday, they were pushed back up to -7 and eventually to -7 (-120), where every book in town is sitting. The lone exception is the South Point at 7-flat because they don't add extra juice to sides. The total has dropped from 45 to 44.

WHO THEY BETTING?

"We're gonna being in trouble with the Seahawks because no one wants the Panthers," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said. "The Seahawks have been bet heavy at -6.5, and -7 and we're currently at -7 (-120)."

The Seahawks are tied into the Packers as one of the most popular risky teaser and parlay combinations of the day. In April when CG Tech books opened numbers on every game, the Seahawks were -3 for this one.

ROBERTS' RATING

I have Seattle three points better than Carolina on a neutral field and give the home field, one of the best in the NFL, a full three points which makes my true number for the game Seattle -6. I have Seattle tied with Dallas as the top rated teams in the NFC, two points behind NFL leader New England.

WEATHER

There's a 40 percent chance of showers in Seattle Sunday night with temperatures at 36 degrees and winds from the west up to 13 mph. Not exactly ideal conditions for passing, but it's really just a normal December night in Seattle.

KEY INJURIES

The Panthers biggest blow is not having LB Luke Kuechly (concussion and they'll also be without offensive-linemen Ryan Kalil, Gino Gradkowski, Daryl Williams and Michael Oher. Meanwile the injury riddled Seahawks have good news with DE Michael Bennett (knee), DB Earl Thomas (hamstring), CB Deashawn Snead (hamstring) and DE Damontre Moore (foot) all expected to play.

TRENDS

-- Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS against in last seven against NFC teams.
-- Carolina Over 7-2 in last nine following straight-up loss.
-- Carolina Over 12-3 in last 15 against winning teams.
-- Seattle is 10-1 ATS in last 11 Week 13 games.
-- Seattle is 1-5-1 ATS in last seven after scoring less that 15 points in previous game.
-- Seattle Under 12-2 in last 14 December games.

RECENT MEETINGS

The two teams met in Week 6 last season at Seattle and the Seahawks (-7) had a 23-14 lead in the fourth quarter only to see Carolina reel off 13 unanswered and win which kept Carolina undefeated at 5-0. Seattle would drop to 2-4, but go on to win seven of the next eight and make the playoffs where they'd play at Carolina in the Divisional Round. The Panthers (-2.5) jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead and held on to win 31-24. Seattle had won five against Carolina straight before dropping those two last season. The last five meetings in Seattle have gone Over the total, as have the past three three meetings overall.

DIVISION ODDS

Five games remain and the Cardinals are three games behind Seattle in the NFC West, but the Westgate SuperBook called the race over and took the odds off the board. Meanwhile, Carolina, who opened the season as the 2-to-7 favorite to win the NFC South, are now being offered at 100-to-1. The Falcons are the 1-to-4 favorite with the Saints 9-to-2 followed by the Buccaneers at 7-to-1.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

Carolina was 12-to-1 to win it all before the season, but the Westgate will give you 300-to-1 now. Hey, you never know. Cam Newton is the type of dynamic player that can carry a team for two months. Seattle opened as the 8-to-1 co-favorite to win the Super Bowl, and they've been dropped to 7-to-1, but both Dallas (4/1) and New England (7/5) have passed them as favorites.

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate Superbook opened early Week 14 numbers on Tuesday and posted Seattle -2.5 (-120) at Green Bay. Carolina is -2.5 at home against San Diego.

[StarDust Bum]

Essential Week 13 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Giants have won 6 in a row, going 5-1 ATS in the process. Big Blue is currently a 6-point road dog in Pittsburgh in Week 13.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 49)

* Kansas City has survived despite a mediocre offense that has topped 300 total yards just once in the last four games. The Chiefs have missed star receiver Jeremy Maclin, who has been sidelined for three straight games with a groin injury, but his absence has helped open up more playing time for rookie speedster Tyreek Hill, who last week became the first player since Gale Sayers in 1965 to record rushing, receiving and return touchdowns in the same game. Kansas City’s saving grace has been a defense that leads the league in takeaways (24) and features dynamic pass rushers Justin Houston and Dee Ford.

* Atlanta’s offense is one of the best in the league and features a prolific duo in quarterback Matt Ryan and receiver Julio Jones, who leads the league in receiving yards (1,140) and recorded 108 and two touchdowns in Atlanta’s 40-24 win at Kansas City in 2012. The backfield combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman gives the Falcons decent balance and will need to be effective to keep the Chiefs’ defense honest. The Falcons’ most glaring weakness is their pass defense, which ranks last in the league but has held three of its last four opponents under 300 passing yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened the week as 3.5-home favorites and that number has been steadily going up, as of Friday afternoon the line has grown to 5.5. The total opened at 49 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.


Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 40.5)

* Tannehill likely will be without one of his weapons on Sunday in Parker, who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury. "Right now, this moment, we got to make sure we have a plan in place if he doesn't make it," offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen said of 23-year-old Parker, who has 16 receptions for 246 yards in his last three games. "If he does make it, it's going to be at the last hour. That would be awesome. We're hoping so, but right now we're preparing for the worst." Jarvis Landry leads Miami in receptions (64) and receiving yards (733) while fellow wideout Kenny Stills has three of his team-best five touchdowns in his last five games.

* Baltimore's second-ranked defense (297.8 yards per game) is led by linebacker Terrell Suggs, who recorded two sacks and two forced fumbles last week and three of each in the last three contests. Suggs hasn't been shy against the Dolphins, collecting at least one sack in each of his seven career encounters. Top cornerback Jimmy Smith is in line to return after a two-game absence due to a back injury and will likely shadow Landry.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened the week as 3.5-point home favorites and that line has dropped to 3. The total opened at 41.5 and has faded one full point to 40.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
* Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (PK, 43.5)

* Kaepernick tried to take the game into his own hands last week and nearly succeeded but the quarterback, who has surged into the national limelight for anything but football recently, was stopped just shy of the goal line on the game's final play in the 31-24 loss. Still, it was his best day as a quarterback since 2014 when he was entrenched as a dual threat viewed as one off the game's top playmakers. The Niners' lone win of the season was a 28-0 whitewashing of the Rams on opening day and they rank 29th in the NFL in scoring (20.7 points) and 30th in passing (198 yards a game)

* Sunday will be a chance for Barkley to see if he can build on his solid second half of last week despite the Bears' vast shortcomings in the receiving game. Chicago, which is still without top receiver Alshon Jeffery (suspension) for two more weeks and placed tight end Zach Miller (foot) on injured reserve a week ago, could also be missing Eddie Royal due to a toe injury. Regardless, look for Jordan Howard to carry the ball a lot as the Niners have allowed an NFL-worst 171.8 rushing yards per game and Howard ranks second to Ezekiel Elliott in rushing for rookies with 766 yards and two touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 2.5-home favorites and the public has driven that line down to a PK. The total opened at 42.5 and that has been bet up to 43.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.


Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 42)

* Wide receiver Jordan Matthews was limited in Thursday's practice as he attempts to work his way back from a right ankle injury that hampered him against the Packers. Matthews' availability is key for Wentz, as the former leads the team in receptions (57), targets (90), receiving yards (686) and receiving touchdowns (three). Tight end Zach Ertz has stepped up in the passing game, reeling in 23 receptions in the last four weeks. Running back Ryan Mathews (team-leading 427 yards, seven TDs) did not practice on Thursday due to a knee injury and is in jeopardy of missing his second straight game.

* Cincinnati has won only one of its last seven games to put its streak of five consecutive playoff appearances on life support, and losing the electric Gio Bernard and Green hasn't helped matters. Running back Jeremy Hill has been limited to just 83 yards in the last two contests, but added an unexpected boost in the passing game on Sunday with six catches for 61 yards in a 19-14 loss to Baltimore. Veteran wideout Brandon LaFell has struggled to pick up the slack in the absence of Green, who was spotted working on the team's rehab field during Thursday's practice.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened this game as 1-point home dogs, but were bet all the way to Bengals -2. The total opened at 42 and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 9-1 in Eagles last 10 road games.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 44.5)

* Osweiler is under heavy criticism after throwing three interceptions in the loss to the Chargers, and his average of 5.77 yards per attempt is the worst among qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL. "Our job as an offensive unit is to score touchdowns and put together multiple drives that result in touchdowns every single week," Osweiler told reporters. "And we've struggled with that this year. And I can't quite put my thumb on that, but I will certainly always stand up and point the finger at myself." Coach Bill O'Brien dismissed the idea of replacing Osweiler, who signed a $72 million free-agent deal in the offseason, with backup Tom Savage.

* Green Bay came out of its victory on Monday night banged up at key positions, with Rodgers battling a hamstring strain and linebacker Clay Matthews suffering a separated shoulder. Coach Mike McCarthy gave the team the day off from practice on Wednesday to let everyone rest and does not see the team making big adjustments offensively to accommodate for Rodgers' decreased mobility. "We'll see how he is, movement-wise," McCarthy told reporters. "But with that, you've got to make sure he's got more answers for later in the time clock of the play then he did when he can't move out of the pocket."

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 6-point home favorites and were pumped up to 7, but has since settled at 6.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet down to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Over is 4-0 in Texans last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games overall.


Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (3.5, 40)

* After picking up Super Bowl MVP honors in February, Von Miller could add another prestigious title should he continue on his impressive path: NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Miller recorded a career high-tying three of his league-best 12.5 sacks versus the Chiefs and is inching closer to his personal best of 18.5 (2012). Rookie running back Devontae Booker has proven to be a workhorse over the last two weeks, recording 24 carries in each contest while totaling 155 yards. He'll look to exploit a Jaguars' defense that is being gouged for 116 yards on the ground.

* Defensive tackle Malik Jackson made no bones about looking forward to his Rocky Mountain reunion. "This is the game," said Jackson, who signed with Jacksonville in March after spending four seasons in Denver. "When I first signed here, I realized we were playing Denver this year and I just looked forward to it, the old team, to show those guys who I am on another team." Jackson recorded two sacks last week versus the Bills and his 4.5 on the season are just 1.5 shy of the career he he set in 2013.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened up as 4.5-point road favorites and was quickly bet up to 5, before fading late in the week to 3.5. The total opened a 42 and has been bet down to 40.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 13.
* Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 vs. AFC.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13, 44)

* Los Angeles went four straight games scoring 10 points or fewer prior to last week's 49-21 loss in New Orleans, a game in which it did all its scoring in the first half behind three scoring passes from Goff. The No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft has 348 yards in his first two games and is not getting much help from running back Todd Gurley, who is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and has rushed for only two touchdowns in his last eight games. Kenny Britt has been the top receiving target by a wide margin with 54 receptions for 788 yards and four scores. The Rams' defense features a standout defensive tackle in Aaron Donald and ranked seventh against the pass at 227.5 yards per game.

* Brady battled an ailing knee to beat the New York Jets last week on a late touchdown pass, but he told a radio station on Thursday night that "I'll be feeling a lot better than I was feeling last week." The loss of Gronkowski is impossible to replace -- he had three 100-yard games and 21 catches for touchdowns in Brady's first four games after the quarterback returned from a four-game suspension. The Patriots have a nice backup play in tight end Martellus Bennett, who has three 100-yard games, while rookie Malcolm Mitchell and the return of running back Dion Lewis have added a spark to the passing game. New England ranks third with an average of 17.9 points permitted.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened the week as 13-point favorites and were briefly up to 13.5 mid-week before returning to 13. The total opened at 45.5 and has dropped down to 44. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Rams last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6, 53.5)

* Detroit has survived a lackluster ground game thanks to the maturation of Matthew Stafford, who has completed 66.8 percent of his passes for 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Stafford has thrown scoring passes to seven different targets - including leading receiver Golden Tate, who caught two in last year’s win over the Saints. Detroit’s defense has stepped up its effort of late, allowed fewer than 300 total yards on average over the last four games and holding three straight opponents under 90 yards rushing.

* New Orleans again possesses one of the league’s most prolific offenses but hasn’t been able to consistently make stops on defense. Veteran Drew Brees leads the league in passing yards (3,587) and touchdown passes (30) and has led three game-winning drives in the fourth quarter, while Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower give the Saints a viable running game. The defense has turned it up the last two games, holding Carolina and Los Angeles under 250 total yards after failing to keep an opponent under 325 in the first nine contests.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened the week as 4-point home favorites and that number has grown two full points over the week to 6. The total opened the week at 53.5 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Lions last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3, 48.5)

* Buffalo hopes to have Marcell Dareus on the field Sunday after the defensive tackle sat out the latter stages of last week's victory over Jacksonville with an abdominal strain and has been limited at practice. "I think he's going to be OK," coach Rex Ryan told the team's website. "I'm no doctor, so I can't tell you the issue that he had, but he feels confident that he's going to be ready to roll, and I feel the same way." The Bills will be without Seantrel Henderson, however, as the offensive tackle received a 10-game suspension from the NFL for violating the league's Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse. Buffalo placed wide receiver Walt Powell and defensive tackle Corbin Bryant (shoulder) on injured reserve, signing Dez Lewis and DeAndre Coleman from the practice squad to respectively replace them, and also inked tight end Logan Thomas from Detroit's practice squad to fill Henderson's roster spot.

* Carr has put himself in the conversation for the MVP award this season thanks in part to the five fourth-quarter comebacks he has orchestrated. He has led nine game-winning drives in the final period or overtime since 2015, which puts him one behind Detroit's Matthew Stafford for the most in the league in that span. Oakland may have another player in the running for MVP in Khalil Mack, who was named both the AFC Defensive Player of the Month for November and the conference's Defensive Player of the Week - for the second time this season - after becoming the first player to record a sack, interception-return touchdown, forced fumble and fumble recovery in the same game since Charles Woodson accomplished the feat in 2009.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders open this game as 3.5-home favorites, that was bet down to 3 early in the week and that number has held firm. The total opened at 49.5 and has been dropped to 48. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Raiders are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.


Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 48.5)

* Kirk Cousins is playing out the season under the franchise tag and continues to give the team reasons to sign him to a long-term extension. Cousins threw for 449 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in the 31-26 loss at Dallas - the second time in the last four games he went over 440 yards and his third contest in a row without an interception. "Much like any other job, as you perform it longer in the same role, you're going to get comfortable and say, 'OK, I've been here, I've done this, I can do this,'" Cousins explained to reporters.

* Arizona surrendered a total of 68 points in losses at Minnesota and Atlanta in its last two games, and Arians hinted at selfishness as the cause. "I thought, defensively, we had some guys get out of their lane again and try to do too much," he told reporters, "tried to get on the stat sheet instead of just doing their job." Safety Tyrann Mathieu played against the Falcons last week but described himself as "limited" due to a shoulder injury while cornerback Marcus Cooper recorded a career-high nine tackles.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this NFC showdown as 2.5 home favorites and the public seems happy with it, as the line hasn’t moved yet. The total opened at 49.5 and has dropped a point and half to 48. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 10-1 in Redskins last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS loss.


New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 48.5)

* New York's defense was among the worst in the league while going 6-10 last season, but one of the biggest reasons for the turnaround is safety Landon Collins, who was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Month on Thursday. Collins had three of his five interceptions in four games in November to earn the Giants' first monthly honor since Jason Pierre-Paul in 2011. Pierre-Paul is re-emerging as a force with 5.5 sacks over the past two weeks for New York, which has recorded 21 sacks during the winning streak. Beckham has multiple touchdowns receptions in three of the past six games while Manning has 15 scoring passes and six interceptions in that span.

* Pittsburgh stopped a four-game skid with back-to-back road wins at Cleveland and Indianapolis, but each victory came against an opponent with an untested quarterback. Brown, who is two yards shy of his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season, leads the NFL with 82 receptions and caught three touchdown passes last week to match his total from his previous six games combined. Running back Le'Veon Bell has scored in each of the last three games and has rushed for 266 yards in the past two while Roethlisberger is coming off his sixth game with at least three touchdown passes. Pittsburgh's defense allows 263.5 yards per game and will be tested by New York's passing attack.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened the week at 5.5-home favorites and have been bet up to 6. The total opened at an even 50 and has been slowly moving down all week, settling at 48.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 games following a ATS win.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 47.5)

* Tampa Bay's defense likely is salivating at the prospect of facing San Diego, as it has recorded 18 takeaways in its last seven games while the Chargers enter Week 13 leading the league with 23 turnovers. The team ranks 24th in total defense (369.3 yards per game) but is tied for 13th in scoring defense (264 points) as it has clamped down during its winning streak, allowing a total of 32 points in the three games after yielding 73 over the previous two contests. Jameis Winston has been on fire of late, throwing for 1,573 yards and 13 touchdowns in his last six games with only three interceptions, while Mike Evans is tied for the league lead with 10 TD receptions and has hauled in five scoring passes in his last five road contests.

* Despite its turnover total, San Diego will provide a challenge to Tampa Bay's defense as it possesses the fifth-best passing offense (271.5 yards) and fourth-ranked scoring offense (313 points) in the league. Philip Rivers is fourth in the NFL with 3,128 passing yards and tied for fifth with 23 touchdown passes but also is one interception off the league lead of 13. The veteran has eclipsed the 3,000-yard plateau for the 11th consecutive season, which has him tied for the fourth-longest such streak in NFL history.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened as 3.5-home favorites and were briefly bet up to 4, before fading back to the opening number. The total started the week at 46.5 and has risen a full point to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Chargers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

The Over is a white-hot wager when the snow blows into NFL betting

Going back to 2004, NFL games with snow have finished with a 24-9-1 Over/Under record – topping the total 73 percent of the time.

December isn’t wasting any time making its presence felt in Week 13 of the NFL season, with snow in the forecast for two games Sunday.

Weather reports in Chicago are calling for three inches of the white stuff, just in time for the Bears’ home stand against the San Francisco 49ers (-2, 43). And in another NFC North venue, Lambeau Field will live up to its “frozen tundra” billing with similar weather expected for the Green Bay Packers’ game versus the Houston Texans (+6, 44.5).

Snow is the most misunderstood element when it comes to its impact on the football game. While the knee-jerk reaction to less-than-ideal playing conditions it to bet the Under, history has shown that slippery field conditions favor the Over. And so they should, with the ball carrier having the advantage over the tackler, simply by knowing which way he’s going to go.

Going back to 2004 (when we first started record game day weather), regular season games with snow have finished with a 24-9-1 Over/Under record – topping the total 73 percent of the time. Those games have featured an average total of 45.18 points versus a closing betting total of just 40.6, with the final score blowing away the number by more than 4.5 points.

The Over in snow games has been even more profitable since 2009, with those wintery wonderlands producing a 14-3 Over/Under mark, for an 82 percent Over windfall. NFL teams posted an average of 53.59 total points against an average total of 42.6, soaring Over the total by nearly 11 points per game.

As it pertains to the pointspread outcomes, you would think teams from cold climates would be more than used to playing in snow and inclement weather, therefor giving them an edge at the sportsbook. But it’s actually been the opposite, with road teams posting a 20-13-1 ATS record (17-17 SU) in snow games since 2004, winning by an average score of 23-22.18 against an average spread of +2.53 points.

In fact, going back to the 2010 NFL season, home teams are a dismal 4-10 ATS in snow games, getting outscored by an average final of 30.78-24.57 while facing an average pointspread of -1.32.

Sunday’s San Francisco-Chicago total opened at 42.5 and has moved to 43 points while the Houston-Green Bay number has dropped from 46.5 to 44.5. The Bears are 1-2 SU and ATS with a 2-1 O/U record at home in the snow, while the Packers are 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS and 3-1 O/U when winter weather comes to Lambeau.

[StarDust Bum]

Light snow in Green Bay today and cold, light rain (maybe wet snow) in Chicago.
Other than those 2 cities, conditions s/b dry w/light winds.

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NFL

Sunday, December 4

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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Panthers at Seahawks
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Seattle will be looking for some payback when Carolina comes to town after the Panthers eliminated the Seahawks from the playoffs last season.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)

The Carolina Panthers may have to run the table to have a chance to return to the postseason as they prepare to visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a matchup of the past two Super Bowl losers. Carolina, which finished 15-1 last season. is coming off a 35-32 loss at Oakland last week to drop into last place in the AFC South with a 4-7 mark.

"We'll just keep fighting, keep playing," Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. "Now we still have an opportunity. We'll see what happens." Carolina has won only once in five road games and will be trying to win at one of the league's toughest venues -- Seattle is a perfect 5-0 at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are coming off a 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay -- a division rival of the Panthers -- in which they failed to score a touchdown for the third time. Still, Seattle owns a comfortable three-game lead over Arizona atop the NFC West.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (+1.5) - Seahawks (-4) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites against their NFC rivals from Carolina and that line has been growing all week up to 7.5. The total hit the board at 45 and has inched down during the week to 44. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for CenturyLink Field is calling for plenty of clouds with a passing shower or two, standard Seattle weather. There will be minimal winds from the southeast between 7-9 mph and temperatures in the mid-30’s at kickoff.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Panthers were on a 22-2 SU run entering Super Bowl 50, but have now gone just 4-8 SU in their past twelve games. An emotionally draining loss at Oakland last week as Carolina overcame a 7-24 halftime deficit with 25 straight points to take a 32-24 lead in the second half before a narrow 32-35 loss. Carolina was an underdog for the first time all season in that game and narrowly covered the closing line as a 3.5-point underdog."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Seahawks are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season scoring only 5 points last week against Tampa Bay. We opened the Seahawks as 6.5 point favorites at home to the Panthers and bounced between the -6.5 and -7 all week until it finally settled at our current number of Seahawks -7.5, where the Seahawks are getting 60% of the action to cover."

INJURY REPORT:

Carolina - WR Kelvin Benjamin (probable, shoulder), DT Kawann Short (questionable, back), WR Philly Brown (questionable, shoulder), DE Ryan Delaire (questionable, knee), OT Daryl Williams (questionable, ankle), DE Mario Addison (out, foot), S Kurt Coleman (out, concussion), LB Luke Kuechly (out indefinitely, concussion), C Ryan Kalil (IR, shoulder), C Gino Gradkowski (IR, knee)

Seattle - RB Troymaine Pope (probable, ankle), DE Damonte Moore (probable, foot), S Earl Thomas (probable, hamstring), TE Jimmy Graham (probable, knee), DE Michael Bennett (probable, knee), C Justin Britt (probable, ankle), WR Paul Richardson (questionable, hamstring), LB Jordan Tripp (questionable, thigh), DB Deshawn Shead (questionable, hamstring), LB Brock Coyle (questionable, foot), TE Luke Wilson (doubtful, knee)

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS, 6-5 O/U): Carolina's last four games -- and six of the past seven -- have been decided by three points and it is 2-4 in those games, along with a one-point defeat at Denver in the season opener. Quarterback Cam Newton had a passer rating above 100 in half of his 16 games en route to winning league MVP honors last season, but he has reached triple digits once this year and has completed less than 60 percent of his passes in six of 10 games. Running back Jonathan Stewart finally broke out with 96 yards rushing and two touchdowns in last week's loss after averaging 2.7 yards per carry in his previous three games. Carolina ranks second against the run (79.5 yards) but 29th versus the pass (275.2).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7–3-1 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Seattle amassed 88 points during a three-game winning streak prior to last week's dud against the Buccaneers, in which quarterback Russell Wilson threw for a season-low 151 yards and was intercepted twice -- matching his season total from the first 10 games. Running back Thomas Rawls was limited to 38 yards on 12 carries in his second game back from a broken leg, although Wilson rushed for a season-high 80 yards. Star safety Earl Thomas was a full participant in practice Thursday after missing the first game of his career last week while defensive end Michael Bennett could return to the lineup for the first time since Week 7. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 17 points per game.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.

CONSENSUS: The road Panthers are getting 54 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 51 percent of the total action.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at GB 01:00 PM

GB -6.5 ***** ( SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY )

U 44.5 *****

DET at NO 01:00 PM

DET +6.5

U 53.0 *****

KC at ATL 01:00 PM

KC +4.5 ***** ( NFL DOG # 1 )

U 50.0

LA at NE 01:00 PM

NE -13.0

O 44.5

DEN at JAC 01:00 PM

JAC +3.5

U 39.0 *****

PHI at CIN 01:00 PM

PHI +1.5

O 42.0 *****

MIA at BAL 01:00 PM

BAL -3.5 *****

O 41.5

SF at CHI 01:00 PM

SF -1.0 *****

U 44.0 ***** ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )

BUF at OAK 04:05 PM

BUF +3.0 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY # 2 )

O 48.5

NYG at PIT 04:25 PM

PIT -6.5

O 49.5

WAS at ARI 04:25 PM

WAS +2.5 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY # 3 )

U 48.5

TB at SD 04:25 PM

TB +3.5 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY # 3 )

O 49.0

CAR at SEA 08:30 PM

SEA -7.5

U 44.0

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NFL Capsules
December 5, 2016

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Derek Carr threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns to rally the Oakland Raiders to their biggest comeback in 16 years with a 38-24 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.

After falling behind 24-9 following touchdowns on the first two drives of the second half for Buffalo (6-6), the Raiders (10-2) took the game over with 29 straight points and won their sixth straight to remain one game ahead of Kansas City in the tough AFC West.

Oakland scored touchdowns on three straight drives, including scoring strikes from Carr to Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper for his sixth fourth-quarter comeback of the season. This was the biggest comeback for the Raiders since overcoming a 21-point deficit to Indianapolis to win 38-31 on Sept. 10, 2000.

The defense also tightened by forcing three straight three-and-outs and then getting a turnover when Khalil Mack deflected Tyrod Taylor's pass that Nate Allen intercepted .

SEAHAWKS 40, PANTHERS 7

SEATTLE (AP) - Thomas Rawls ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns in the first half, Tyler Lockett took a reverse 75 yards for a score to open the second half and Seattle routed Carolina.

Another prime-time game in Seattle was clouded with odd story lines right from the outset when Carolina quarterback Cam Newton was benched for the first play, only to watch backup Derek Anderson throw an interception.

The Seahawks (8-3-1) rolled up a season-high 534 yards and kept a three-game lead over Arizona in the division with four remaining.

Rawls finished with 106 yards on 15 carries, quiet in the second half after briefly being checked for a concussion. Russell Wilson was 26 of 36 for 277 yards and a touchdown.

Seattle safety Earl Thomas broke a bone in his lower left leg during a first-half collision with teammate Kam Chancellor while trying to intercept Newton's pass. X-rays revealed a ''cracked tibia,'' coach Pete Carroll told Seattle's radio broadcast.

Carolina dropped to 4-8.

CHIEFS 29, FALCONS 28

ATLANTA (AP) - Eric Berry returned an interception for a touchdown, and then brought back another pick for a 2-point conversion that gave Kansas City an improbable victory over Atlanta.

The Falcons (7-5), rallying from a 27-16 deficit, went ahead 28-27 on Matt Ryan's 5-yard touchdown pass to Aldrick Robinson with 4:32 remaining.

Atlanta decided to go for 2, looking to stretch the margin to a field goal. But Berry stepped in front of Ryan's pass and ran 99 yards the other way to give the Chiefs (9-3) their winning margin. It came after Denver won a game in similar fashion last month, returning a blocked PAT for the winning points at New Orleans.

Berry had another huge play with less than a minute to go in the first half, picking off Ryan's pass over the middle and bringing it back 37 yards for a touchdown. After reaching the end zone, the suburban Atlanta native handed the ball to his mother sitting in the stands at the Georgia Dome.

Those weren't the only big plays for the Chiefs.

CARSDINALS 31, REDSKINS 23

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) - Carson Palmer threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns and David Johnson scored twice.

The loss by the Redskins (6-5-1) clinched a playoff spot for the 11-1 Dallas Cowboys.

Palmer's 25-yard touchdown pass to Johnson with 11:09 to play put Arizona ahead 24-20, the fourth lead change of the second half.

After a Washington field goal, Palmer's 42-yard pass to J.J. Nelson with 1:56 padded gave the Cardinals (5-6-1) a 31-23 lead.

Washington drove to the Arizona 28-yard line before Patrick Peterson's interception of Kirk Cousins' pass with 41 seconds left sealed the victory.

Johnson, who also scored on a 1-yard run, became the second player in NFL history to top 100 yards from scrimmage in the first 12 games of a season. Edgerrin James was the other.

STEELERS 24, GIANTS 14

PITTSBURGH (AP) - Ben Roethlisberger passed for 289 yards and two touchdowns, Le'Veon Bell rolled up 182 yards of total offense, and Pittsburgh's resurgent defense harassed Eli Manning into a flurry of mistakes.

Antonio Brown edged good buddy Odell Beckham Jr. in their personal showdown, catching six passes for 54 yards and an acrobatic scoring grab at the back of the end zone. Tight end Ladarius Green added six receptions for 110 yards, both career highs, and a touchdown as the Steelers (7-5) won their third straight to keep pace with Baltimore atop the AFC North.

Manning completed just 24 of 39 passes for 195 yards with two touchdowns and two picks in the red zone for the Giants (8-4), whose six-game run ended with a thud. Beckham was largely a non-factor despite a game-high 10 receptions for 100 yards.

BUCCANEERS 28, CHARGERS 21

SAN DIEGO (AP) - Jameis Winston threw a go-ahead, 12-yard touchdown pass to Cameron Brate midway through the fourth quarter and Keith Tandy intercepted Philip Rivers in the end zone with 2:56 left to give the Buccaneers their fourth straight victory.

Rivers had the Chargers on the move in the final minutes before Tandy got in front of a pass to Dontrelle Inman and picked it off. Tandy's momentum carried him into the end zone, giving the Bucs the ball on their 20. They ran out the clock.

The Bucs (7-5) pulled into a tie with Atlanta atop the NFC South.

Rivers threw two second-half interceptions, including Lavonte David's pick-6.

The Chargers (5-7) were trying to get back to .500 for the first time since Week 2.

PACKERS 21, TEXANS 13

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - Aaron Rodgers threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns, and the Packers pulled away with two fourth-quarter touchdowns.

The Packers (6-6) weathered snowy conditions at Lambeau Field, making just enough plays on the cold turf.

Brock Osweiler connected with DeAndre Hopkins for a 44-yard touchdown pass with 1:51 left to get within eight for Houston. Nick Novak missed the extra point, with footing slippery at Lambeau.

The Texans (6-6) had one last shot after the Packers failed to run out the clock. But Osweiler's last-ditch pass-and-lateral play from Houston's 12 with 4 seconds left failed, handing Houston its third straight loss and dropping it into a tie with Tennessee atop the AFC South.

Nelson finished with eight catches for 118 yards and a touchdown for Green Bay.

LIONS 28, SAINTS 13

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Matthew Stafford passed for 341 yards and two touchdowns.

Golden Tate exploited a coverage breakdown on third-and-long for a 66-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter when Detroit (8-4) was clinging to a six-point lead. The Lions, who've won seven of eight, dominated statistically, but four opportunities inside the New Orleans 20 ended with Matt Prater field goals, allowing the Saints (5-7) to stay close until the fourth quarter.

This time, however, the Lions pulled away for their most comfortable victory of the season after seven previous victory margins of one to seven points.

The Lions also became the first team in 60 Saints home games to stop Drew Brees from completing a touchdown pass, although tight end Coby Fleener had a pass bounce off his hands at the goal line.

RAVENS 38, DOLPHINS 6

BALTIMORE (AP) - Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns, and the Ravens overwhelmed the Dolphins in the first half to end Miami's six-game winning streak.

Baltimore (7-5) led 24-0 at halftime behind Flacco and a dominant performance from the league's second-ranked defense. Flacco went 27 for 34 for 258 yards and three scores over the first 30 minutes, and the Ravens yielded only 115 yards and intercepted a Ryan Tannehill pass.

That was enough to provide the Ravens with their fourth win in five games. Miami also is 7-5.

Flacco finished with a franchise-record 36 completions in 47 attempts, by far his most impressive outing in an uneven season. He entered with 11 TD passes and 10 interceptions.

PATRIOTS 26, RAMS 10

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) - Tom Brady became the NFL's career leader in victories by a quarterback, earning his 201st by throwing for 269 yards and a touchdown. Brady, who was 33 of 46, had tied Peyton Manning last week in a win over the New York Jets.

His lone touchdown came on a 14-yard pass to Chris Hogan in the first quarter. LeGarrette Blount scored the game's first touchdown , rumbling for a 43-yard, ankle-breaking score in the first quarter while spinning around safety Maurice Alexander in the process. He finished with 88 yards on 18 carries.

The Patriots (10-2) have won seven of their last eight.

On the same day that Los Angeles coach Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead were given contract extensions, the recently relocated Rams (4-8) proved they still have a long way to go after losing for the seventh time in eight outings.

BRONCOS 20, JAGUARS 10

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Bradley Roby returned an interception 51 yards for a touchdown, helping the Broncos gain ground in the AFC playoff picture.

Roby picked off Blake Bortles' wobbler across the middle in the third quarter and went untouched the other way. Star linebacker Von Miller hit Bortles as he released the ball.

It was the 11th pick-6 of Bortles' three-year career and his third in the last four games. Houston and Detroit also returned interceptions for touchdowns in games the Jaguars lost by less than seven points.

The latest one resulted in a seventh consecutive loss for Jacksonville (2-10) and secured another miserable milestone for the small-market franchise. The Jaguars became the fifth team in NFL history to post double-digit losses in six consecutive seasons, joining Tampa Bay (1983-94), Detroit (2001-06), Oakland (2003-09) and Cleveland (2008-13).

Jacksonville had a chance to tie in the final minutes, but Bortles fumbled trying to make a play in the pocket.

The Broncos (8-4) rebounded from an overtime loss against Kansas City, and with Miami's loss at Baltimore, moved into position to get one of the conference's wild-card spots.

BENGALS 32, EAGLES 14

CINCINNATI (AP) - Andy Dalton threw a pair of touchdown passes and Cincinnati finally got its depleted offense moving without receiver A.J. Green.

The Bengals (4-7-1) got their first win since Oct. 23, beating a team that's in a swoon of its own. The Eagles (5-7) opened the season with three straight wins, but have dropped seven of nine.

Dalton had completions of 50, 44, 29, 23 and 21 yards. The Bengals scored on each of their first six possessions for a 29-0 lead, reinventing themselves with Green and running back Giovani Bernard sidelined by injuries. The previous time they scored on their first six possessions was 2009 against the Bears.

The only bad moment: Mike Nugent missed another PAT kick wide to the right, his fourth miss in a span of five tries. Nugent made field goals from 32, 33, 26 and 38 yards, the last one deflecting off the left upright.

BEARS 26, 49ERS 6

CHICAGO (AP) - Jordan Howard ran for 117 yards and a career-high three touchdowns and the Bears handed San Francisco its 11th straight loss.

The 49ers (1-11) extended their franchise-record losing streak and set a club low with 6 yards net passing on a day when Colin Kaepernick got lifted for Blaine Gabbert.

The Bears (3-9) finished with a season high in points and picked up a rare win in a matchup between two of the NFL's worst teams.

Matt Barkley, making his second start with Jay Cutler sidelined by a season-ending shoulder injury, went nearly the entire first half without a completion. But he led a touchdown drive near the end of the second quarter and finished 11 of 18 for 192 yards.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Broncos 20, Jaguars 10— Jaguars have now lost seven games in a row; QB Bortles threw his 11th career pick-6 in this game- he has 10 career wins. Jags are -16 in turnovers their last eight games. First career win for rookie QB Paxton Lynch. AFC South underdogs are 7-13 vs spread, 2-6 at home.

Chiefs 29, Falcons 28— Eric Berry scored 8 points; he had a pick-6 in last 1:00 of first half when score was tied, then scored game-winning two points on a pick-2 in 4th quarter, after Falcons had taken a 28-27 lead. Atlanta also gave up a TD on a 55-yard fake punt. Over is 10-2 in Falcon games this season. Not a good day at all for the Atlanta coaches.

Packers 21, Texas 13— You say Texans should struggle in cold weather, being a dome team and all, but QB Osweiler grew up in Montana; shouldn’t he be used to it? Houston is 1-5 on road, 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7-8 points- its not the cold, they’re just bad on the road.

Bengals 32, Eagles 14— Philly has now lost seven of last nine games after its 3-0 start; Eagles lost last six road games, are 1-4 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 1-7-6-5-11-18 points.

As far as rookie QB’s go, here are some W-L records of rookie QB’s:
John Elway 4-6, Troy Aikman 0-11, Eli Manning 1-6, Peyton Manning 3-13, Dan Marino 7-2. Oddly enough, Marino is only one of those five who never won a Super Bowl.

Lions 28, Saints 13— Didn’t see Sean Payton celebrating much on the sidelines today. Detroit is now 8-4, atop NFC North; this was first game all year they didn’t trail in 4th quarter. Lions are 4-1 as road underdogs this year. Last six Detroit games stayed under total.

Bears 26, 49ers 6— On a snowy day in Windy City, 49ers completed 5 of 15 passes for a net of six yards. Bears had six sacks in a game where neither side completed a pass in first quarter, but Chicago wound up 11-18/184 passing. Under is 4-1-1 in Chicago home games.

Patriots 26, Rams 10— My three favorite football movies:
1) Any Given Sunday 2) Invincible 3) Friday Night Lights

It is accurate to say that Sunday afternoon wasn’t a happy one in my living room.

On a happier note, some Christmas trivia: the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree in New York City is 94 feet tall and weighs over 30,000 pounds.

Ravens 38, Dolphins 6— Miami’s 6-game win streak was put to an emphatic end- this game was 24-0 at half; Ravens have won four of last five games- they’ve allowed 11.4 pts/game in last five home games.

Raiders 38, Bills 24— Buffalo led 24-9 halfway thru third quarter but got outscored 29-0 from that point on. On their last six drives, Oakland ran 34 plays for 230 yards and four TD’s, with two short TD drives of 38-16 yards. Over is 10-2 in Raider games this season.

Buffalo was -2 in turnovers; teams that were -2 or worse in turnovers are 7-64 in the NFL this season.

Buccaneers 28, Chargers 21— Tampa Bay has won four straight road games for first time ever; they’re 5-1 on road this year, NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 12-2 vs spread this season, 9-1 on road.

Bucs are tied with Atlanta atop NFC South and would be the #2 Wild Card now; as for San Diego, sounds like they’re moving to the new stadium in LA, which opens in 2019. They need to draft a QB in April, someone who will be in place as a starter when they try to sell tickets in their new location.

Cardinals 31, Redskins 23— Washington’s loss drops them out of the playoff picture, for now; they’re half-game behind the Wild Cards. Arizona was 10-16 on third down, and didn’t turn the ball over; they had turned it over nine times in previous four games. Over is 10-2 in Redskin games this season.

Steelers 24, Giants 14— Pittsburgh won its third straight game, allowing total of 30 points- they’re 4-1 as home favorites this year. Giants had 6-game win streak snapped, in game where Victor Cruz had zero targets. Under is 7-2 in Giants’ last nine games.

[StarDust Bum]

Colts (5-6) @ Jets (3-8)— Indy is 5-2 this season when scoring 24+ points, 0-4 when they do not; Colts are 2-2 in true road games, 2-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 14 at Denver, 3 in Houston. Jets lost last three games by 4-3-5 points; they’re 1-4 at home, 2-1 as home underdogs, with home losses by 1-10-3-5 points- they beat Baltimore 24-16 for only home win. Colts lost by 1-26-13 points in last three games with Jets, scoring only 10.7 pts/game; teams split last eight visits here. Three of last eight series meetings came in playoffs. AFC South non-divisional road teams are 7-8 vs spread, 2-1 as favorites. AFC East home teams are 7-7 vs spread, 4-2 as underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Indy games, 6-1 in Jets’ last seven games.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Colts at Jets
December 4, 2016

The AFC Wild Card is heating up through the first weekend in December, but the Colts and Jets are currently on the outside looking in. Indianapolis travels to Met Life Stadium on Monday night trying to reach the .500 mark with a victory and stay in the midst of the AFC South race. New York is riding out the string as the Jets look to snap a three-game losing streak and pick up their second home victory of the season.

LAST WEEK

The Colts (5-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) played without quarterback Andrew Luck on Thanksgiving night due to being in the concussion protocol as Indianapolis was blown out by Pittsburgh, 28-7 as eight-point home underdogs. Scott Tolzien started in place of Luck, but threw two interceptions, while Antonio Brown reached the end zone three times for Pittsburgh. The Steelers outgained the Colts, 369-310, as Indianapolis suffered its third home loss of the season.

New York (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) continues to sit at the bottom of the AFC East following last Sunday’s 22-17 home defeat to New England. The Jets managed to cover as nine-point underdogs in spite of blowing a 10-0 lead as New York scored only seven points in the second half. Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed two touchdown passes and compiled 269 yards through the air in the defeat, but the Jets rushed for just 64 yards.

HOME WOES

The Jets have slumped to a 1-4 record at Met Life Stadium this season with the only victory coming against the Ravens in Week 7 as 2 ½-point favorites, 24-16. Three of four home defeats have come by five points or less, but own a 1-2 ATS record as a home ‘dog.

LUCK FACTOR

The Colts will have their franchise quarterback under center on Monday after Luck missed the Pittsburgh loss. Luck has thrown for under 300 yards in each of his last three starts, while getting intercepted four times in this span. Since starting 0-3 on the road, the Colts have won two straight on the highway at Green Bay and Tennessee, as Indianapolis scored 31 and 34 points respectively in those wins.

SERIES HISTORY

These teams are meeting on Monday night for the second straight season as the Jets cruised past the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium last September, 20-7 as six-point underdogs. New York intercepted Luck three times, while Indianapolis turned the ball over five times. Fitzpatrick connected on a pair of touchdown passes, including 15-yard scoring strike to Brandon Marshall. The Jets have won three consecutive meetings against the Colts since the 2010 playoffs, as Indianapolis is facing New York at Met Life Stadium for the first time since Luck’s rookie season of 2012.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Colts opened as one-point road favorites at the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook, but that number moved up to Indianapolis -2 after Luck’s status was upgraded to probable. The total opened at 49 ½, but that has number slipped to between 48 ½ and 49 at most sports books. The weather at Met Life Stadium shouldn’t be a huge factor with kickoff temperatures in the low 40’s and partly cloudy skies.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the play of Fitzpatrick has definitely been one of the main reasons for New York’s struggles this season, “Fitzpatrick has had a disappointing season with just 57 percent completions and 13 interceptions compared with 10 touchdowns. He has taken 18 sacks and he rates 31st out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in Total QBR. In fairness, nine of his 13 interceptions came in back-to-back games vs. two of the league’s best defensive teams and over his last six games he has thrown seven touchdowns with only three picks.”

On the Colts’ side, Nelson believes this team isn’t too far away from a return to the playoffs, “Indianapolis has road wins in Nashville and Green Bay this season and the Colts have three losses by four of or fewer points this season as this team isn’t far from being in a better position. Every Indianapolis win has come by a single score as laying points with a team allowing over 27 points per game certainly carries some risk. The long layoff for Indianapolis came at a great time to get Andrew Luck, Vontae Davis, Robert Mathis, and T.Y. Hilton likely back from injuries as the Colts will have few excuses if they fail in this opportunity to set up next week’s critical division showdown against Houston.”

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Indianapolis

A. Luck – Total Gross Passing Yards
268 ½ - OVER (-110)
268 ½ - UNDER (-110)

A. Luck – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-150)
1 ½ - UNDER (+130)

Will F. Gore score a touchdown?
YES +145
NO -165

New York

R. Fitzpatrick – Total Completions
20 ½ - OVER (-110)
20 ½ - UNDER (-110)

R. Fitzpatrick – Total Touchdowns + Interceptions
2 – OVER (-110)
2 – UNDER (-110)

B. Marshall – Total Receiving Yards
68 ½ - OVER (-110)
68 ½ - UNDER (-110)

NEXT WEEK

The Colts return home to host the Texans in a crucial AFC South showdown as Indianapolis goes for the season sweep. The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened Indianapolis as four-point favorites, as that number is creeping up to 4 ½. The Jets travel to San Francisco next Sunday, as New York is set at one-point road underdogs.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL THURS- SUNDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:

12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 106-122-8 46.49% -14100

O/U Picks 104-124-6 45.61% -16200

Triple Plays:..... 51 - 56 - 4

BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 4 - 2

12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 13
December 5, 2016

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 13 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-4
Against the Spread 9-5

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 10-4

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-7-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Lions (+6, ML +240) at Saints, 28-13
Chiefs (+5, ML +180) at Falcons, 29-28
Buccaneers (+3.5, ML +160) at Chargers, 28-21

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-13) vs. Rams, 26-10
Seahawks (-8) vs. Panthers, 40-7
Steelers (-6.5) vs. Giants, 24-14

Road Warriors

-- The Kansas City Chiefs posted a 29-28 victory on the road against the Atlanta Falcons, posting their fifth consecutive road victory and cover. Overall the Chiefs are 3-1 SU/ATS in their past four games, and the 'over' has cashed in each of their past two games after a six-game 'under' run. The Chiefs will play host to the Oakland Raiders on a short week at Arrowhead Stadium Thursday. The Chiefs rolled to a 26-10 victory in Oakland back on Oct. 16. Temperatures in Kansas City Thursday night are forecast to be in the upper teens with a slight breeze.

Tampa Bay Watch

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers picked up another road victory against the San Diego Chargers, winning 28-21 as 3 1/2-point underdogs. That's four straight wins and covers for the Bucs overall, and they're now 5-1 SU/ATS in six games on the road this season. The Bucs will return home to face the New Orleans Saints for the first of two meetings in three weeks with their NFC South Division rivals. The Bucs have won and covered their past two home outings after opening the season 0-4 SU/ATS at home in their first four outings at the Ray Jay.
Total Recall

-- The 'under' had a slight 6-7-1 edge heading into the Monday night battle between the Indianapolis Colts-New York Jets. In three AFC games the 'under' went 2-1 (with one pending), while in four NFC games the 'over/under' split 2-2 with one pending. In seven AFC vs. NFC games the 'under' finished 2-4-1.

-- The two games with the highest totals on the board never lived up to the hype. Detroit-New Orleans (53.5) was a defensive slog, with just one quarter featuring a team scoring double-digit points.Two quarters featured nothing but field goals, and the Saints were scoreless in two of the four quarters. Not exactly the track meet everyone figured it would be. In the N.Y. Giants-Pittsburgh (50) game, not one team scored in double digits in any one quarter.

-- The Los Angeles Rams failed to keep up the 'over' trend of Pacific Time Zone teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone. The New England Patriots posted a 26-10 win and the 'over' was never threatened. If you've been on that trend this season, there are a couple of better chances for it to cash in Week 14. The San Diego-Carolina and Arizona-Miami games could be high-scoring affairs.

-- The lowest total on the board, Denver-Jacksonville (38.5) was never really close to going 'over', and one of the scores for the Broncos was of the defensive variety. The next two lowest totals, both at 41.5, ended up going 'over'. Philadelphia-Cincinnati pushed over by the middle of the fourth quarter, while the same held true with a Ravens TD with 5:55 to go to make the score Baltimore 38, Miami 6.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in two primetime games with one game left Monday between the Colts and Jets (48.5). Officially, the 'over' is 19-20 (48.7%) through 39 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Broncos RB Kapri Bibbs (ankle) was forced out of Sunday's game in Jacksonville due to an ankle injury and he was unable to return.

-- The Buccaneers lost WR Adam Humphries (concussion), TE Luke Stocker (ankle) and WR Cecil Shorts III (knee) to injuries in their win in San Diego.

-- Eagles WR Dorial Green-Beckham (rib) left Sunday's loss in Cincinnati due to a rib injury. He was sent for X-rays.

-- Patriots WR Danny Amendola (foot) was spotted on crutches with a walking boot on his right foot after the team's win against Los Angeles.

-- Redskins WR Jamison Crowder (hip) suffered a hip pointer in Sunday's loss in Arizona.

Looking Ahead

-- The Chiefs have won six of the past seven meetings straight-up against the Raiders, and Kansas City is 5-2 ATS during the span. They have also won and covered three straight at Arrowhead Stadium, turning around what was an ugly trend. In the previous seven meetings in Kansas City it was the Raiders covering. The 'over' is 4-2 in the past six in this series, but the 'under' is 17-6 in the past 23 overall meetings and 8-3 in the past 11 at Arrowhead.

-- The Texans and Colts do battle in a key AFC South Division battle at Lucas Oil Stadium next Sunday. The Colts frittered away a 23-9 lead with 7:04 to go back on Oct. 16 in Houston, as the Texans forced overtime and eventually won 26-23. Indy is 6-2 SU over the past eight meetings, and 5-1-2 ATS during the span. The 'under' has cashed in eight of the past 12 meetings.

-- The Eagles host the Redskins Sunday afternoon. The Eagles dropped a 27-20 decision Oct. 16, failing to cover for the fifth straight in this series dating back to Nov. 17, 2013.

-- The Bucs host the Saints in Week 13, looking for just their second win in the series in the past 10 games. The Bucs are 4-2 ATS in the past six in this series, and the 'under' has cashed in each of the past three. The under is also 12-3 in the past 15 in this series, including 7-1 in the past eight at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 5

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

IND at NYJ 08:30 PM

NYJ -1.0 *****

U 48.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Jets embarrassed by Colts, turn to Petty for last 4 games
December 6, 2016

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) It was ugly. And, embarrassing. And mostly downright pitiful.

The New York Jets were thoroughly outplayed and outclassed by Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, hitting rock bottom in a season that has been spiraling for weeks with a brutal 41-10 loss in front of a national TV audience Monday night.

''I thought for the first time this year, we got our (butts) handed to us,'' coach Todd Bowles said. ''That's very disappointing.''

Luck returned after missing a game with a concussion by throwing for four touchdowns, three to Dwayne Allen. It was 24-3 at halftime, and the game was over at that point.

''I thought they kicked our (butts),'' Bowles said, repeating that often in his postgame news conference. ''It's very troubling when you get your (butt) kicked.''

An ineffective Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched in the third quarter for Bryce Petty, who will start the final four games for the Jets (3-9).

''The plan was to start him the last four games, anyway,'' Bowles said. ''So, we just started a half early.''

It was the culmination of an awful night - and the epitome of what has been a terrible year - for the Jets.

''This is a character-building season,'' wide receiver Brandon Marshall said. ''It's one of those seasons when each man has to look himself in the eye and ask himself, `What type of player do you want to be? What type of man do you want to be?' You go from there.''

The defense got booed, and then chewed out on the sideline by Bowles.

''Too many cuss words to mention,'' the coach said.

The offense was booed, too.

So was New York's special-teams unit.

The biggest cheers from a half-empty MetLife Stadium came when two shirtless fans were tackled to the turf in the second half.

''Guys have got to play harder,'' defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson said. ''But we're not going to point the finger. ... Coming out on prime-time football and playing like that, it's not up to our standards.''

So, the Jets will now look to the future because their playoff hopes are shattered. Petty, a fourth-rounder out of Baylor last year, will get his second NFL start next Sunday at San Francisco.

Fitzpatrick said he was told of that plan by some ''offensive coaches,'' but seemed unaware he would be stuck on the sideline for the rest of the season no matter how he played against the Colts.

''We could've won 45-nothing, and (Petty) was going to start the last four games,'' Bowles said. ''That's the slot we had penciled for him and it's a good time to take a look at him.''

Petty finished 11 of 25 for 135 yards with a touchdown to Robby Anderson and two interceptions.

''To be honest, I didn't feel like I played to my ability tonight,'' Petty said. ''I think I was pressing a little bit, whether I was trying to create a spark or create a big play.''

Fitzpatrick, in what could be his last appearance on the field in a Jets uniform, was 5 of 12 for 81 yards with a pick. He re-signed with New York on a one-year, $12 million deal after setting a franchise record with 31 touchdown passes last season.

''I just, I didn't get it done,'' Fitzpatrick said.

Neither has the defense, which has been subpar all season after being expected to be a strength. The Colts rolled up 421 yards of total offense and 27 first downs against the Jets, who appeared listless from the start.

''They came here to win and we're supposed to stop that from happening,'' safety Rontez Miles said. ''There was nothing positive.''

The hot seat is getting warmer by the week for Bowles, who's in his second season as coach with the Jets. They went 10-6 last year, losing in the season finale to miss the playoffs.

Questions about his in-game decisions and his ability to prepare his players have increasingly become a topic. That has led to speculation whether the Jets could look elsewhere for next season, especially if the losses continue to pile.

''I coached for my job the first day I took this job,'' Bowles said.

For now, the focus turns to the next game. And that means watching the film of this loss and then moving on to preparing for San Francisco (1-11).

''We'll come in Wednesday and we'll play the guys who want to play,'' Bowles said. ''But we got our (butts) handed to us, and we're going to see what kind of pride we've got this week.''