The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

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MNF - Panthers at Redskins
December 18, 2016

The Week 15 card wraps up on Monday night from Washington as the Redskins look to stay alive in the NFC playoff race against the Panthers. Last season, Carolina lost its first game in Week 16 following a 14-0 start, but went through the expected letdown this season after a Super Bowl appearance by limping to a 5-8 record. The Panthers can put a dent in Washington’s postseason hopes with a road victory at FedEx Field.

LAST WEEK

Carolina (5-8 SU, 4-8-1 ATS) rebounded from a 40-7 drubbing at Seattle in Week 13 to beat San Diego last Sunday, 28-16 to cash as one-point home favorites. After allowing a total of 75 points in the previous two losses, the Panthers’ defense stepped up by causing five turnovers, including three interceptions of Chargers’ quarterback Philip Rivers. Kicker Graham Gano connected on four field goals for Carolina, while the Panthers overcame just 10 completions from Cam Newton to improve to 4-3 at Bank of America Stadium.

Washington (7-5-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) finished off a string of three consecutive road games by rallying past Philadelphia, 27-22 to cover as two-point favorites. The Redskins lost the previous two weeks at Dallas and Arizona, but pulled off the season sweep of the Eagles thanks to a pair of touchdown passes by Kirk Cousins and the go-ahead touchdown run scored by Chris Thompson after the two-minute warning. DeSean Jackson burned his former team by hauling in three catches for 102 yards and a touchdown, his highest yardage mark in a victory this season.

SERIES HISTORY

The Panthers have won four consecutive matchups with the Redskins since 2009, including three victories at Bank of America Stadium. Last season, Carolina blasted Washington, 44-16 to easily cover as seven-point favorites. The Redskins hung around after one quarter, tying the Panthers at 14-14 with a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. However, Carolina exploded for 17 points in the second quarter and only allowed a fourth quarter safety in the final 45 minutes. Newton diced up the Redskins’ defense for five touchdown passes to five different receivers, as last season’s MVP owns a perfect 3-0 record against Washington in his career.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Redskins as four-point favorites with a total of 51, but Washington has jumped to seven-point chalk. The total is still a solid 51 across the board as game-time temperatures are expected to be in the low 30’s.

ROAD WOES

Carolina has slumped to a 1-5 mark on the highway this season following a 7-1 road record last season. The Panthers dropped three of those games by three points or less at Denver, Oakland, and New Orleans, while allowing at least 35 points in four of six road contests, as Carolina is 5-1 to the OVER away from Bank of America Stadium. Carolina is listed as an underdog for the third time this season, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS with the lone cover coming at Oakland as 3 ½-point ‘dogs in a 35-32 setback.

MONDAY NIGHT MISERY

Since 2013, the Redskins have struggled on Monday Night Football by posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record, including an 0-5 SU/ATS mark at FedEx Field. In this season’s opener against Pittsburgh, the Redskins were steamrolled by the Steelers, 38-16 on Monday night as 2 ½-point underdogs. The last time Washington won a Monday night home game came in 2012 against the Giants, as the Redskins own a dreadful 2-15 record on Mondays at FedEx Field since the stadium opened in 1997.

HOME COOKING

The Redskins will look to break their Monday night jinx as home teams on Monday night have fared well over the last two months by going 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine weeks. Following a five-week UNDER run, the OVER has hit in four of the past six Monday night games.

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Carolina

C. Newton – Total Completions
19 – OVER (-110)
19 – UNDER (-110)

C. Newton – Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
2 – OVER (-110)
2 – UNDER (-110)

J. Stewart – Total Rushing Yards
69 ½ - OVER (-110)
69 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Washington

K. Cousins – Total Gross Passing Yards
283 ½ - OVER (-110)
283 ½ - UNDER (-110)

K. Cousins – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-170)
1 ½ - UNDER (+150)

R. Kelly – Total Rushing Yards
66 ½ - OVER (-110)
66 ½ - UNDER (-110)

NEXT WEEK

The Redskins opened as a 3 ½-point road favorite at Chicago in Week 16 at the Westgate Superbook, their fourth away contest in the past five weeks. Carolina is listed as a 2 ½-point home underdog against Atlanta next Sunday according to the Westgate, one year after the Falcons upset the Panthers as a home ‘dog.

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[B]NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:

12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/15/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/18/2016 14-12-0 53.85% +400

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 121-137-8 46.90% -14850

O/U Picks 124-135-6 47.88% -12250

Triple Plays:..... 69 - 70 - 4

BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 7 - 6

12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13[/B

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 19

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CAR at WAS 08:30 PM

WAS -6.5 *****

U 50.5 *****

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Panthers turn back clock in 26-15 rout of Redskins
December 20, 2016

LANDOVER, Md. (AP) Cam Newton threw for 300 yards, Carolina's running game was overwhelmingly effective and an aggressive defense forced three turnovers.

It was just like last year for the Panthers. Unfortunately for Carolina, there almost certainly will be no Super Bowl at the end of the season for the defending NFC champions.

Though the Panthers did just about everything right Monday night in a 26-15 win over the Washington Redskins, it's been a rough encore for a team that went 15-1 before breezing into the Super Bowl.

Carolina (6-8) has battled through injuries, free-agent defections and inexperience at key positions. On Monday night, the Panthers showed just how good they can be when performing to their potential.

''For us, our challenge all year has been playing a complete game,'' Newton said.

Battered, bruised and weary from a season's worth of hard hits, the agile quarterback showed his frustration when he tossed the ball at Washington's Trent Murphy on a play in the second quarter. Newton was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct after Murphy roughed him up a bit as he was sliding to the ground.

''I've got to be better than that,'' Newton said.

When it came to flinging the ball at his receivers, Newton was better than usual. He went 21 for 37 with two touchdowns and didn't turn the ball over.

He was backed by a solid running game led by Jonathan Stewart, who amassed a season-high 132 yards on 25 carries.

Throw in a defense that allowed only one touchdown, and you've got the 2015 Panthers.

''They loaded the box up, backers were shooting the gap,'' Redskins tackle Trent Williams said. ''That's the same front seven they went to the Super Bowl with. That's a good group of guys.''

The Panthers on Monday night looked nothing like the group that started 1-5 and got beat by such scores as 22-10 and 40-7.

''We had a bit of continuity,'' coach Ron Rivera said. ''We've got an offensive line that's played together for what, four weeks now? We've got a group of young corners that have played together for five weeks now. We ran the ball very effectively today.''

Carolina has only a mathematical chance of getting back to the playoffs, but that's not what drives the Panthers as the season draws to end.

Asked what the team is playing for, Newton replied with one word: ''Wins.''

''We're playing for a ton of pride and the guy next to us,'' defensive end Wes Horton said. ''Even if we didn't have a playoff scenario, we're still going to fight to the end. Our objective is to go undefeated the rest of the season.''

Rivera insisted upon it.

''Coach challenged us as man, as players, as professionals, to come out and do our job,'' Newton said. ''That's what we tried to do today, and we did it.''

Newton arrived fashionably late for his postgame session wearing a pink hat, checkered suit, blue tie and sneakers - even though Rivera told the team they could travel home in sweat suits.

Newton said his attire was a tribute to Craig Sager, an NBA analyst who died recently of cancer.

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Opening Line Report - Week 16
December 19, 2016

By this point of the NFL season, many teams’ chances of making the playoffs are nil, and bookmakers and bettors have to wrestle with the question of how motivated such squads will be in their last few games.

The answer is surely not one-size-fits-all. Teams that are used to playing meaningful games late in the season but recently saw this year’s playoff hopes vanish – the Cardinals and Bengals, for example – probably approach late-season games differently than a team like the Bears that has been out of contention for some time.

“If you’re a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs before, you’re working on (getting better). They may come and play a little harder,” John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn, said Sunday night. “Teams that have made the playoffs before and had high expectations that are not playing well, that are out of it, maybe you’ll get a little lesser performance out of them.”

Bettors, though, are kidding themselves if they think they can read teams’ minds and guess with any accuracy how hard they will play in “meaningless” games.

“For the one time you get it right, you’re probably wrong five other times,” said Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “It’s like flipping coins. You just don’t know.”

Still, Avello says he adjusts his numbers if a team has been eliminated from the playoff race.

“The reason those teams aren’t making the playoffs is they’re playing poorly, so it’s an adjustment of the power rating to go along with the team not needing the game,” Avello said. “It’s a combination of the two.”

Several of these teams face opponents in Week 16 that still have plenty to play for, and even though handicappers are not mind readers, this has to be a factor when analyzing games.

Here are all the opening point spreads for the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, which features most of the games on Christmas Eve (Saturday) but a pair of doozies on Christmas Day. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of Sunday night at 11 p.m. ET, with early line moves and differences among Vegas books also noted.

Thursday, Dec. 22

New York Giants (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia is out of the playoff race, and the Giants are in the thick of it. But before you rush to the window to lay these points next week, know that the last time the Giants were favored in Philly was in 2009 (they lost 40-17 as 2-point chalk).

Saturday, Dec. 24

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

While not much can be gleaned from beating the Browns, Rex Ryan’s men played hard for him in Sunday’s 33-13 win. Spoiling their division rival’s season may provide the motivation they need to win at home again next week.

Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

The Bucs shut down the Saints’ offense when these teams met in Tampa Bay two weeks ago, and the 16-11 final score didn’t come close to getting the game ‘over’ the lofty total of 52. A different story figures to unfold in the Superdome.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were 3-point favorites when they visited Atlanta in Week 4 (the Falcons won 48-33 as Julio Jones lit up Carolina for 300 receiving yards), an indication of the massive power rating adjustments these teams have seen as the season has progressed.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7 even)

While the Packers have hit their stride with four straight wins and the Vikings continue to flounder, this number looks expensive to Salmons, whose shop opened Green Bay -6.5.

“I don’t care how bad Minnesota played (in Sunday’s 34-6 home loss to the Colts), that game ain’t 7,” Salmons said. “Green Bay is still the piece of garbage team we’ve seen all year. The Bears really should have won that game (the Packers won at Chicago, 30-27). For whatever reason, they got close to the goal line and they choked.”

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5)

If this line holds, it will be the largest so far of the NFL season. New England opened a point lower at the Wynn, at -15.5. Either way, laying this number is a bit daunting, even with the gap in quality between these AFC East foes. The Pats almost always beat the Jets (they’ve won nine of the last 11 meetings), but they don’t cover a lot of spreads against them (1-7-1 ATS over the last nine).

Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee opened -3.5 at the Wynn, but that number was bet up to -4.5, where most books opened the game, within about 90 minutes of wagering. CG Technology opened Tennessee -4 and stood pat through early betting.

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns

William Hill and Stratosphere opened San Diego -6.5 before early moves to -6.

The Browns are winless and have covered the spread only twice this season, but desperate teams can be dangerous.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-4)

The Westgate opened this game 4.5 but a bet on the dog prompted a move to 4.

Said Salmons, “It’s to the point now where I feel like if I don’t get dog money (on Sundays), I’m probably not going to get too much during the week. You get some wiseguys that bet dogs at the end (of the week), but you just get so overridden with all this chalk money, it’s just crazy.”

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Next.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)

The Wynn was dealing Seattle -8 on Sunday night, while the Westgate had -9. William Hill opened -9 and moved to -8.5.

Despite Arizona’s being officially bounced from playoff contention via Sunday’s home loss to New Orleans, Salmons expects Bruce Arians’ men to show up against their division rival.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2)

There was an even mix of 2s and 2.5s for this AFC battle between a perennial playoff team that is no longer alive this season and another that is very much alive amid a brewing quarterback controversy.

Washington Redskins (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Sunday’s narrow loss as 5-point home underdogs to Green Bay marked the Bears’ fifth straight cover, and Salmons continues to be impressed with their effort under John Fox.

“The Bears play hard every week,” he said.

Sunday, Dec. 25

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Pittsburgh opened -6 at multiple books, all of which moved the line in Baltimore’s direction to 5 or 5.5 during Sunday night action. Coasts Resorts offered favorite players Pitt -4.5.

The Steelers were 3-point favorites when these teams met in Baltimore in Week 9 and lost outright, 21-14. But the Ravens have been dreadful on the road this season, losing four in a row away from Baltimore and counting wins at the Jaguars and at the Browns as their only two road wins of the season.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Like the one above, this game also saw an early move toward the underdog, as the line was bet down from 6 to 5.5 and from 5.5 to 5 at various shops. The numbers mark a significant swing from the Broncos -3.5 when these teams played three weeks ago in Denver.

“Denver is just so inept right now,” Salmons said. “Even when they’re open they drop the ball, (and) they can’t stop the run anymore.”

Said Avello, “Denver right now might not be in a good state of mind. Things are going south for them quickly, and this is a tough spot” with the Chiefs playing at home off a loss.

But, he added, “Kansas City offensively isn’t exactly lighting it up, so this game might be closer than you think.”

Monday, Dec. 26

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

A touchdown plus the hook was the original number at the Westgate and CG Tech for this huge NFC clash. Dallas clinches the NFC East and the No. 1 seed in the conference with a win, while Detroit is just a game ahead of Green Bay for the lead in the North.

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Betting Recap - Week 15
December 20, 2016

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 15 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 12-4
Against the Spread 8-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-9
Against the Spread 5-11

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-9

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Panthers (+7, ML +250) at Redskins, 26-15
Titans (+6, ML +220) at Chiefs, 19-17
Colts (+5, ML +200) at Vikings, 34-6

The largest favorite to cover
Seahawks (-15.5) vs. Rams, 24-3
Falcons (-14) vs. 49ers, 41-13
Bills (-10.5) vs. Browns, 33-13

Buffalo Wings

-- The Buffalo Bills slapped the brakes on a three-game non-cover skid, pounding the winless Cleveland Browns by a 33-13 score. It was also the fourth consecutive 'over' result for the Bills, and the ninth over in the past 10 games for Buffalo. The Bills have scored 20 or more points in four straight, and 11 of the past 13 games. Next up is a home game against the Miami Dolphins. The last time these teams faced each other it was a 28-25 loss in Miami as the 'over' cashed in Week 7.

Grin And Bear It

-- The Chicago Bears fell short in their comeback against the Green Bay Packers, but the results were good against the number. Chicago picked up its fifth consecutive cover in the 30-27 loss, erasing a 17-point deficit entering the final quarter. The Bears will host the Washington Redskins in the final home game at Soldier Field. The Bears are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS at home, four in a row in Chicago. The 'under' is 2-4-1 in Chicago's seven home games this season, although the 'over' easily hit in Sunday's game with the Pack.

Total Recall

-- The 'under' edged out the 'over' 9-7 after Monday's low-scoring game between the Carolina Panthers-Washington Redskins (50.5). In seven games between AFC foes, the 'under' edged the 'over' 4-3. In seven NFC battles the 'under' edges out the 'over' 4-3 after the MNF game. In two AFC vs. NFC games the 'over/under' has split 1-1.

-- Three games in Week 15 had a total of 50 or higher, including Monday's game between the Panthers and Redskins. The 'under' went 2-1, with only the San Francisco-Atlanta (51.5) inching over the mark with a late fourth quarter field by the Falcs, keeping up the West Coast teams in the Eastern Time Zone trend. The 'over' is 4-0 for the 49ers in games in the Eastern Time Zone this season, and the over is 15-4 (78.9%) with Pacific Coast Time Zone teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone.

-- The other game in Sunday's slate with a 50-point total was the Oakland-San Diego (50) game, and the 'over' was never threatened in this field goal fest. In fact, neither side had more than seven points in any one quarter. The third-highest game on the board, the New Orleans-Arizona (48) game was the highest scoring game in the NFL this season, as the Saints won it 48-41.

-- There were four games with totals of 40 or less, and the 'over' went 3-1 in those games. The lone exception was Thursday's snoozefest between Los Angeles-Seattle (39.5), mainly due to the ineptitude of the Rams offensive unit. Miami-N.Y. Jets (39.5) had an identical total as LA-SEA, but it went over Saturday night. The Dolphins have hit the 'over' in four straight, and seven of the past eight.

-- The 'over/under' split 2-2 in the four primetime games after Monday's tussle between the Panthers-Redskins (50). Officially, the 'over' is 22-24 (47.8%) through 46 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Steelers TE Ladarius Green (concussion) checked out of Sunday's game in Cincinnati to be evaluated for concussion.

-- Broncos TE Virgil Green (concussion) left Sunday's game in the first half against New England due to a concussion and he was unable to return.

-- 49ers WR Quinton Patton (foot) was forced out of the blowout loss in Atlanta due to a foot injury sustained in the first half and he was unable to return.

-- Vikings WR Adam Thielen (neck) left the Week 15 game against the Colts early in the first half due to a neck injury and he did not come back.

Looking Ahead

-- The Eagles host the Giants Thursday night. The Eagles opened as a five-point favorite as they look to avenge a 28-23 loss in New Jersey back in Week 9. The Eagles have won four of the past five in this series, and they're also 4-1 ATS during the span. As far as the total is concerned, the 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings between the sides, although the 'under' has connected in six straight meetings at Lincoln Financial Field. The last 'under' between these NFC East rivals in Philadelphia took place Nov. 1, 2009.

-- Remember the West Coast team playing on the East Coast in Week 16 when San Diego visits Cleveland. The 'under' is actually 5-1 in Cleveland's past six games overall, and 4-0 in their past four home games, so the trend will be put to the test. The 'under' is also 3-0-1 in the past four for San Diego. The total opened at 44.

-- The Patriots host the Jets in Week 16, returning home after clinching the AFC East Division title with a win in Denver. The Jets are 1-4 SU over the past five meetings, including Week 12 in New Jersey. However, the Jets covered in that meeting, and are now 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven in the series, and 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven meetings at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro.

-- Tampa Bay and New Orleans meet for the second time in three weeks. The Bucs exorcised some demons with a 16-11 win in Week 14 at the Ray Jay. The Bucs have won two of the past three in this series, and they're 4-1 ATS over the past five meetings. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the past four in the series, and the 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in NOLA.

[StarDust Bum]

Bettors stay hot, win Week 15
December 19, 2016

The NFL's 15th week of the regular season action saw the Patriots clinch an NFL record eighth straight division title and the Raiders clinch their first playoff appearance since 2002, and at the same time those two teams helped clinch another losing week for the majority of Las Vegas sports books.

If you're keeping score at home, that's seven of the last nine weeks most books have lost or broke even which makes it the most horrendous NFL season Las Vegas has ever seen.

"Outside of the Steelers, we won all the morning games, but they were small wins -- all under six figures," said MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood. "We lost every afternoon game and the total losses were more than double what we won in the morning. The worst was the Patriots and the Falcons which were both over six-figure losses by themselves."

The Falcons' 41-13 home win over the 49ers (+13.5) was the eighth time this season that they have covered and gone 'over' the the total (52) in 14 games this season and the public has been jumping on the 13/5 two-team parlay (Bet $100 to win $260) all year once the trend got rolling with the NFL's highest scoring team. In Sunday's case, they were playing a San Francisco defense that allows the most points in the league.

The Patriots (-3) grinded out a 16-3 win at Denver, where they lost twice last season, but the public was correct with the Broncos having trouble running the ball and being able to score despite multiple opportunities given to them.

The NFL is supposed to gravy for the books with parity and the spreads being the equalizer, but not this year and the steam roller kept going with the popular teams. The Raiders were one of them, however, one sports book was able to escape the wrath of the Death Star.

"We had a 9-to-1 ticket and cash count on the Raiders, but we never moved off of 3, so that helped us a little bit," said Stratosphere oddsmaker Hugh Citron. "We had hardly anything on the Chargers."

The Raiders ticket count disparity in Las Vegas was just like the San Diego residents fan appeal at the game where Charger fans were scarce at Qualcomm (Jack Murphy) Stadium. I've seen some massively weighted fan support for road teams at Arizona over the past 20 years, but nothing like the roar Raider Nation provided Sunday in their 19-16 win. There hasn't been a decibel level at that place like we saw Sunday for the Raiders since Leon Durham muffed a grounder in the 1984 NLCS.

The Stratosphere's move to stay with Oakland at -3 afforded them the ability to push on the game meaning they weren't paying on large parlays as much as other places that had the Raiders -2.5 because a few sharp bettors had shown an interest in the Chargers at +3.

The Stratosphere, along with the Golden Nugget, were the lone Rangers on Sunday that showed a profit in Vegas.

When Golden Nugget book boss Tony Miller was asked if he survived on the day, he was happy to report that the epidemic throughout the town didn't hit his downtown and Laughlin books.

"No, we had a great day today," Miller said. "We still need the Cowboys, but no matter what happens we're going to be a winner."

The Buccaneers would cover +7 in a 26-20 loss at Dallas which kept the total 'under' 47.5 and didn't help many books. Once a public team, Dallas has quickly lost favor with them after failing to cover its last four games. Tampa Bay had its five-game win streak end, but have covered the last six.

"We needed a Dallas blowout win," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "All other results were bad. Teasers take their toll."

The four-way teaser win with each side and total cashed in that game. It was another dagger into the hearts of most books. However, MGM books weren't affected by it.

"We didn't lose on parlays (or teasers), which is kind of surprising," said Rood. "Most the damage done was on straight bets."

And the crazy thing was that the winless Browns weren't the recipients of being the most hated team in league by the books despite dropping to 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in a 33-13 loss at Buffalo (-10.5).

Sharp money left Cleveland alone for the first time weeks and they were right to do so. However, the public still threw whoever the Browns were playing and whoever the 49ers were playing in their parlays, and cashed again. Those two dregs of the NFL have now gone a combined 4-23-1 ATS this season and the public has been all over it.

"The wise guys aren't the ones beating us. It's the $20 to $100 bettor with the parlays," said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Korneagy. "They take a regular three teamer and then add whatever teams are playing the Browns and 49ers every week to make it a five-teamer."

That's a tough road to finagle and the books can't make up 20-to-1 five team parlay payout odds every week and that's what been happening this season.

Overall in Week 15, the favorites went 6-7 against the spread and the popular 'over' plays cashed, including cold weather games at Chicago, where the Bears (+4.5) covered their fifth straight game in a 30-27 loss to the Packers and at Buffalo in the Bills (-10.5) win against the Browns. The Bears cover helped the books a ton on Sunday.

The casino bean counters are asking questions weekly what can be done to stop the slide in the books, and they hate that they can't forecast book numbers to an exact science like they do table games and slots, but it is what it is. Every once in a while there's a hiccup. Last season was one of the best NFL seasons for the books, but the tide has definitely turned in 2016.

The best piece of optimism I can offer to all my bookie friends fielding questions in executive meetings -- with the tiresome bean counter questions -- is that 2017 is going to look so much better in month over month comparisons. There's only one way to go and it's up.

There's only one more NFL Sunday to go before the ledgers are closed on 2016 and it comes early on Saturday, Dec. 24 with 12 games and two more on Christmas.

[StarDust Bum]

Texans' QB Savage to start Saturday
December 19, 2016

HOUSTON (AP) Tom Savage will start at quarterback for the Houston Texans on Saturday against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Coach Bill O'Brien announced the decision on Monday, a day after Savage took over in the second quarter when Brock Osweiler was benched against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Savage threw for 260 yards to help Houston rally from a 13-point deficit for a 21-20 win in his first regular-season action since 2014.

O'Brien wouldn't say if he planned to start Savage for the rest of the season, saying the team is focused on the Bengals.

Osweiler has struggled in his first season in Houston after signing a $72 million contract to join the Texans from Denver. He threw two interceptions before he was benched on Sunday to give him 16 interceptions and just 14 touchdowns this season.

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Jaguars name Marrone interim coach
December 19, 2016

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) The Jacksonville Jaguars have named Doug Marrone interim coach for the final two games of the season.

General manager Dave Caldwell made the announcement Monday, a day after owner Shad Khan fired coach Gus Bradley.

Marrone served as Jacksonville's assistant head coach/offensive line coach the past two seasons. Before that, he was Buffalo's head coach for two seasons (2013-14). Marrone went 15-17 with the Bills.

Owner Shad Khan fired Bradley following the team's ninth consecutive loss Sunday, ending one of the least successful coaching tenures in NFL history. Bradley went 14-48 in four seasons in Jacksonville, the worst winning percentage (.225) of any NFL coach with at least 60 games.

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Close isn't good enough for the Eagles
December 19, 2016

PHILADELPHIA (AP) The Philadelphia Eagles are 5-9, have glaring weaknesses and several holes to fill during the offseason.

Still, they may not be too far away based on six losses in one-score games.

Every NFL team can play the ''what if'' game and come up with more wins, but the Eagles could point to one play that would've changed the outcome in five different losses.

''It seems like it comes down to one or two plays every game,'' Carson Wentz said. ''We just need to keep building on our success.''

The play that will stand out most occurred Sunday in a 27-26 loss at Baltimore. If Wentz connected with Jordan Matthews across the middle on a win-or-lose 2-point conversion attempt with 4 seconds left, the Eagles win 28-27 instead.

Same story last week in a 27-22 loss to Washington. If Wentz throws a touchdown pass from the Redskins 14 instead of losing a fumble on the final drive, the Eagles would've won.

In Week 9, Wentz threw four straight incomplete passes from the Giants 17 with under two minutes left in a 28-23 loss. He just missed Matthews in the end zone on his last pass in that one. One completion equals a win.

A week earlier, the Eagles blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead in a 29-23 overtime loss at Dallas. If coach Doug Pederson allowed Caleb Sturgis to try a 51-yard field goal with 6:34 left and he connected - Sturgis made one from 55 earlier in the game - instead of punting away, perhaps Philadelphia wins that game.

In Week 5, Ryan Mathews fumbled after running for a first down with the Eagles leading the Lions and 2:34 left. If Mathews secures the ball, the Eagles could've run out the clock and won that one.

But none of those plays went Philadelphia's way so they are what their record says they are, as Bill Parcells once said.

''It was a couple of plays here and there,'' linebacker Nigel Bradham said. ''It seems like it's been like that the last few weeks for us. We've got to win these close games. It's something we haven't done this season. We've been in all the games, pretty much. We've just got to win these close ones. That's all it is.''

The Eagles have no time to dwell on what-ifs or a five-game losing streak. They have to get back to work and prepare for a home game against the Giants (10-4) on Thursday night.

''We got a quick turnaround,'' Wentz said. ''We just have to move on from this one as quickly as we can and get ourselves ready to go.''

NOTES: Pederson said he plans to start RT Lane Johnson vs. the Giants. Johnson was reinstated Monday after serving a 10-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing drugs. ... RB Kenjon Barner won't play because of a hamstring strain.

-------------------------------------

Titans lose DL Klug to torn Achilles
December 19, 2016

Tennessee Titans defensive lineman Karl Klug has a torn left Achilles tendon and will have season-ending surgery, coach Mike Mularkey announced Monday.

Klug, 28, will be placed on injured reserve.

Klug suffered a strained Achilles injury in the Titans' 13-10 victory over the Denver Broncos on Dec. 11 and further damaged the tendon during the second half of Sunday's 19-17 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.

A fifth-round pick by the Titans in 2011, Klug has 20 career sacks and 110 tackles in 94 career games. He had 26 tackles and 1.5 sacks this season.

Klug re-signed with the Titans as a free agent in the offseason and will become a free agent again when this season is over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Ravens at Steelers highlights Week 16

"The Steelers have been attracting so much public action that we had to factor that into our opening number."

Bettors will hope to stuff their stockings with winnings from the Week 16 NFL slate. We talk with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag., about four key games this Christmas week.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

Pittsburgh is on a five-game SU and ATS surge that has put it atop the AFC North heading into this pivotal contest. The Steelers (9-5 SU and ATS) rallied from a 17-3 deficit at Cincinnati on Sunday to snare a 24-20 victory as a 3-point favorite.

Baltimore (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) edged Philadelphia 27-26 when the Eagles, after scoring a last-seconds touchdown, opted to go for the 2-point conversion and failed.
The Ravens, who beat Pittsburgh on Nov. 6, can reclaim first place – based on tiebreakers – with a road win this week, but are ostensibly in a must-win situation.

“Massive game for both teams, essentially an elimination game for the Ravens,” Childs said. “Historically, these games have always been competitive and go down to the wire. That said, the Steelers have been attracting so much public action that we had to factor that into our opening number.

“We have the Steelers a good 2 points higher in our power ratings. Throw in home field, and we thought of an opening number of 5. But knowing the history of this series, we felt 5 was just too much and decided to open at 4.5, which is our current number. So far, we’re seeing a bit more Ravens money than Steelers, but nothing major and certainly not enough to move the number.”

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

With two victories over Oakland this season, Kansas City had control of the AFC West, but gave away all that leverage in Week 15. The Chiefs (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) blew a 14-0 first-quarter lead against Tennessee, netting just a field goal the rest of the way and losing on a last-second field goal 19-17 laying 6 points at home.

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver (8-6 SU and ATS) is in a very precarious spot to return to the playoffs. The Broncos had two key turnovers that turned into 10 New England points Sunday in a 16-3 home loss as a 3-point pup. So Denver, which fell at home to K.C. 30-27 in overtime in Week 12, can’t take a loss in this Christmas night showdown.

“Both teams coming off tough losses, and the Broncos now have a major uphill battle to make the playoffs. It’s a must-win for them, but they simple cannot move the ball on offense,” Childs said. “They’ve scored just 13 points over their past two games, and things don’t get easier going into Kansas City with an offense that can’t run the ball. It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL with no running game.

“We have the Chiefs 2 points higher in our ratings, and we give the Chiefs 3.5 points for home field. We only give more than 3 points for home field on a handful of teams, such as the Seahawks and Chiefs. So our raw number was 5.5 points, but with all the anti-Broncos money we just booked in their game against the Pats, we wanted to open a touch high, so we opened at 6. We did take very sharp action on the Broncos +6, with the public supporting them too, so we moved straight from 6 to 5 on the Chiefs.”

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, no line

Detroit has arguably been the biggest surprise of the season and is still atop the NFC North, but has some work to do to stay there after a lackluster Week 15 effort. The Lions (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) lost to the New York Giants 17-6 as a 4-point road pup, ending a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).

Dallas (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) will look to nail down home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a Week 16 win. The Cowboys rebounded from a Week 14 loss at the New York Giants – their first setback since falling to the Giants in Week 1 – by fending off Tampa Bay 26-20 Sunday night as a 6.5-point chalk.

“With the Cowboys playing Sunday night, no line yet,” Childs said, noting Sportsbook.ag will post the number Monday. “The preliminary line on them is about 7, maybe 7.5.”

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7)

A month ago, Green Bay was reeling at 4-6 SU. Now, the Packers are on a 4-0 SU run (3-1 ATS) and back in the NFC North hunt. Green Bay (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) let a 27-10 lead at Chicago melt away in frigid temperatures Sunday, but a big long ball from Aaron Rodgers late in the game led to a field goal that secured a 30-27 victory as a 4.5-point fave.

Meanwhile, Minnesota (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) continued to watch its playoff hopes fade away. The Vikings, who started the season 5-0 SU and ATS, got hammered at home Sunday by Indianapolis, 34-6 giving 5 points.

“The Vikings are another team that just can’t move the ball on offense. They can’t run the ball worth a lick, and teams that can’t run don’t win on the road in the NFL,” Childs said. “The Packers have been a monster public team the last few weeks, but they didn’t cash today, which might take some of the luster off them going forward. But we have to question the Vikes’ motivation against the Packers, who have to win if they want to win their division and continue their road to the playoffs.

“We have the Packers a solid 3.5 points higher in our ratings over the Vikings. Tack on 3 points for home field, and our raw number was 6.5, but with the big motivation edge going to the Packers, we decided to open on the key number of 7 and see what happens. So far, we’ve seen decent two-way action at that number, and we haven’t moved off it.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Thursday, December 22

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NY GIANTS (10 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 9) - 12/22/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 24

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WASHINGTON (7 - 5 - 1) at CHICAGO (3 - 11) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 58-90 ATS (-41.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
CHICAGO is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (9 - 5) at BUFFALO (7 - 7) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (8 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 8) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (9 - 5) at CAROLINA (5 - 8) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (7 - 7) at GREEN BAY (8 - 6) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 104-77 ATS (+19.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 179-127 ATS (+39.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 64-38 ATS (+22.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (4 - 10) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 2) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NY JETS are 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (8 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 12) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 28-49 ATS (-25.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (5 - 9) at CLEVELAND (0 - 14) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 7) at OAKLAND (11 - 3) - 12/24/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 32-58 ATS (-31.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 31-55 ATS (-29.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 13) at LA RAMS (4 - 10) - 12/24/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 175-222 ATS (-69.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-222 ATS (-69.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-174 ATS (-65.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-88 ATS (-39.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (9 - 4 - 1) - 12/24/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 66-36 ATS (+26.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (5 - 8 - 1) at HOUSTON (8 - 6) - 12/24/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 25

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BALTIMORE (8 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (9 - 5) - 12/25/2016, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 100-69 ATS (+24.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 87-61 ATS (+19.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 97-71 ATS (+18.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (8 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 4) - 12/25/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 26

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DETROIT (9 - 5) at DALLAS (12 - 2) - 12/26/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 22

8:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games


Saturday, December 24

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 4-7-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New England is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing NY Jets

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHICAGO
Washington is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CLEVELAND
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing San Diego
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Atlanta's last 21 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games on the road
Green Bay is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games at home
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami

4:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

4:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Arizona

4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LOS ANGELES
San Francisco is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games


Sunday, December 25

4:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games


Monday, December 26

8:30 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games at home


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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 16 NFL lines are going to move

The Jags’ underperforming offense combined with the Titans’ still-suspect offense make this one an attractive option for under players.

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Philadelphia (+2.5) (Thursday)

Never get in the way of a runaway train, and that’s pretty much the Eagles’ problem at this point of the season. Five straight losses (and 7 in the last 8), combined with solid seasons from Dallas and the Giants, have relegated Philadelphia to Baltic Ave. status in the NFC East. By contrast, the Giants are on one of their don’t-you-dare-forget-us late-season rolls and have an outside shot at winning the division and actually robbing the Cowboys of the overall No. 1 playoff seed in the conference. With defense as its calling card, New York has won 8 of 9 and is crushing it defensively with the league’s third-best defense in points allowed (17.9/game). The game opened at 3, then surprisingly moved to 2.5 – a gift for NY backers.

Game to wait on

San Diego at Cleveland (+6) (Saturday)

San Diego’s ownership may be talking about turning out the lights and moving, but the Chargers showed some life in an overtime loss to Oakland last Sunday. San Diego’s reward was a trip to Cleveland, where the Browns’ road to nowhere season plays out its string. More amazing than Cleveland’s 0-14 SU record is the fact that the Brownies have not had a single home cover (0-7) this season. Browns fans are so upset that they have been campaigning for the league to not televise Cleveland games, and instead show Steelers games. Pretty bad. This line may not be done moving, so there’s no harm in holding off.

Total to watch

Tennessee at Jacksonville (44) (Saturday)

The AFC South is fertile ground for any team that can win even two games in a row, and the Titans have surprised everyone with three straight – including stunning back-to-back victories over Denver and Kansas City. And Tennessee has been doing it without putting up a ton of points – the Titans had a total of only 32 in the Broncos/Chiefs parlay. You have to wonder how much offensive game-planning is going on in Jacksonville, where a fed-up management pulled the plug on coach Gus Bradley and gave the keys to Doug Marrone. J-Ville was a chic pick to make some noise in the wide-open South, but never got any traction. The Jags’ underperforming offense combined with the Titans’ still-suspect offense make this one an attractive option for under players.

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NFL Week 16 lines that make you go hmmm...

Are books putting too much weight in the Ravens-Steelers rivalry and not focusing on how those teams are currently playing? Our Vegas oddsmaker thinks so.

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 16:

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+2, 41.5)

Philadelphia has now lost five straight heading into Week 16 and it’s the defense which has been particularly poor. Allowing 26, 27, 32, 27 and 27 points while averaging 18 points per game isn’t such a difficult trend to spot. Philadelphia, now out of the playoffs, still will be incentivized to play somewhat against an arch-rival and being at home.

The Giants are quietly having a banner year with 10 wins under their belt. New York is a winner of two straight and eight of nine games heading into play, and the defense has been sensational. In four wins in their past five games, the G-Men have held its opponents to 16, 13, 7 and six points. It’s hard not to think that this spread could easily be four or higher. If the bookmakers are giving you an obvious play, take it and head to the cashier.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 42)

I’m not quite sure Buffalo should be the favorite. Buffalo’s playoff outlook is rather bleak, to say the least, which doesn’t really conjure up a good reason to be playing with a whole lot of spirit.

Sure, historically speaking, the Bills would love to launch a salvo at one of their arch rivals. But Miami is in the thick of the playoff hunt, one game ahead of Baltimore, Tennessee and Denver. During any time of the year, we like to side with the team with the most incentive to play. What was considered a surprise upset earlier in the year in Miami doesn’t really look like it now as we see how the season panned out.

This is the 2016 season for Miami. A loss here would leave the Fins pinning their hopes on defeating the New England Patriots on the final weekend of the schedule. This game here affords them a little gap between the rest no matter what they do.

I had this game Miami -1.5 which truly scares me how off I am. But since we’re being given the better team with +3.5 (and I see a +4 out there as well), it might be worth a roll the dice with the Dolphins in Week 15.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+6.5, 44)

Now it comes down to a test of wills between a team that needs a win and a team that doesn’t want to be the team to lose to them.

You can say the Browns showed some life against Buffalo but they still lost by 20 points. In fact, Cleveland has lost by an average of 13.5 points per game all season. The Browns haven’t been as close as 6.5 for six consecutive games. Now you can play the “due factor” but that’s not going to get you too far. Particularly since they haven’t won a game in over a year.

The Chargers have been more than disappointing - again. But truly, take a look at the teams they have played the past 10 games. That’s a tough schedule. They know they don’t want to be the “it” team and lose to the Browns. We know they’re thinking that too. Being that this may be the second last game the Chargers will be known as San Diego’s team, we think the Bolts will be more than up for this one.

I had this +7.5, so I like what I see out there. We know we have the better team. We know the spread is more than attainable. Maybe this is the best chance the Browns have to win a game this season since they play at Pittsburgh in the last game of the year. But they’ve had chances all year and still haven’t won. We also don’t like the chances of RG3 having two good games in a row. He’s proven he can’t do that anymore.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 44)

It’s becoming obvious that Pittsburgh is the team most likely to challenge the Patriots in a final conference tilt. Their plus-65 scoring difference is second to the Patriots in the AFC. I made this line closer to -6.5 to -7 Even.

Pittsburgh has won five in a row heading into this clash and most assuredly will want to seek a little revenge for its loss in Baltimore earlier this season. By no means are the Steelers set in the playoffs. Incentive will be high and their momentum is heavily into the swing of things heading to the postseason.

Baltimore has lost four in a row on the road with margins of seven, 10 and eight the past three. With a few +4.5 lines still out there, you’ll want to pick that off right now. There won’t be any left by the weekend for sure. The Steelers are allowing only 14 points per game during their current streak and scoring over 25 in those same games.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 16 sneaking up on us:

— Cleveland is 1-12-1 vs spread in its last fourteen games.

— Steelers are 10-3 in last thirteen games as a home favorite.

— Atlanta is 8-17 in its last 25 games as a favorite.

— New England covered 10 of its last 13 games.

— Rams are 1-7-2 vs spread in last 10 games; 49ers are 2-11 in last 13.

— Chiefs covered twice in their last ten home games.

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'Dogs to Watch - Week 16
December 21, 2016

Last week's underdogs feature brought home some nice profits as three of the five teams suggested (Indianapolis, Carolina, Tennessee) were able to bring home the cash, while Jacksonville and Tampa Bay definitely had their chances to get to the winner's circle as well.

Having said that those five teams would likely go at least 2-3 SU, grabbing a 3-2 SU mark for +$395 (on $100 flat wagers) proved to be a nice little profit and I'll be looking for more of the same in Week 16 from underdogs of +4 or more.

Sportsbook.ag Underdogs That Qualify

Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+250)
New York Jets (+16.5); ML (+1150)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5); ML (+185)
Cleveland Browns (+6.5); ML (+230)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+160)
Arizona Cardinals (+9); ML (+320)
Baltimore Ravens (+4.5); ML (+185)
Denver Broncos (+4); ML (+170)
Detroit Lions (+7); ML (+270)

It's another big list this week with a few teams that will surely get some support, but as always I'll begin with Cleveland. If the Browns are going to avoid being the second franchise in the modern era to avoid going 0-16 SU, this week is their best shot. Next week they will be in Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that will still be fighting for a division title and/or playoff seeding and will make sure to get the job done.

This week, Cleveland plays their final home game of the year against a Chargers team that has to fly cross country and is back to being in complete shambles. If you've got the stones to ride with the Browns one more time, Week 16 will be your best opportunity.

Moving on, the Jets have already folded up shop for 2016 and with New England looking to clinch top spot in the AFC and getting the Jets best punch last time around, there is no need to even consider New York going into Foxboro and winning.

Arizona is in a similar boat being up in Seattle and while the Cardinals have had success in Seattle in the past, 2017 can't come soon enough for that franchise.

Teams on this list that are clinging to their slim playoff hopes include the Vikings, Colts, and Broncos and I would not be surprised to see all three put up strong efforts.

Nobody wants any part of backing Minnesota straight up this week after they were beat up and embarrassed on their own field by the Colts on Sunday, but often times it's those teams that you'd want to back in a spot like this.

The Vikings visit Lambeau Field to take on the rolling Packers and will be desperate to show the NFL world that they are much better then what they showed on film a week ago. As the biggest 'dog of the three in this group, +250 ML odds does have significant value if you've got no problem being in a very small minority.

Denver visits Kansas City in a game that could go either way, but with the Broncos offense being one of the worst in the league right now, it's tough to completely trust them in this spot. KC gave away a golden opportunity at a W last week and would love to end Denver's hopes of repeating.

Indy needs to win out and get plenty of help in the AFC South to see postseason action, but they can only worry about what they can control for now.

A matchup with Oakland is one that actually looks good on paper for the Colts, and with the Raiders achieving their main goal of clinching a playoff spot last week, Indy is a live dog in Week 16.

Speaking of that help the Colts need in the AFC South, getting a Jaguars win over Tennessee this week would be ideal. Jacksonville has lost nine in a row though and gave away the game in Houston on Sunday so they are tough to trust.

But the decision to fire head coach Gus Bradley is one that could spark the entire Jags team during the final two weeks, and while helping Indy isn't high on their priority list, spoiling Tennessee's playoff hopes any way they can would be a happy consequence for the Jags.

Baltimore is in Pittsburgh in a game that will decide the AFC North and will likely be the most popular ML underdog bet on this entire list. Those two teams go to war when they meet up and there is no question either side could win. But being the most popular underdog ML bet isn't necessarily a good thing, and it might be best for your bankroll to stay away from this game altogether in terms of ML options.

Detroit faces Dallas on MNF and that contest sets up similar to the Ravens/Steelers game. Both sides are more than capable of winning, both would love a victory to further their cause, but all in all, staying away from this contest is likely the best option.

Of the nine teams that make this week's list, there aren't as many I'm willing to back as a week ago. Close your eyes, plug your nose, and pray with Cleveland (+230) if you wish, but the three I'm seriously considering are Minnesota (+250), Indianapolis (+160), and cough, Jacksonville (+185) again.

Two of these three should be able to come out on the winning side and throw even more wrinkles into an already crowded and confusing playoff picture heading into the final week of the year.