The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

Money Line

8:30 pm 11/6/2016
(471) DENVER @(472) OAKLAND
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using the money line in Home games in November games.
The record is 13 Wins and 28 Losses since 1992 (-25.85 units)
BET NOW!

4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play ON SAN DIEGO using the money line in Home games against AFC South division opponents.
The record is 14 Wins and 2 Losses since 1992 (+12.5 units)
BET NOW!

4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play ON SAN DIEGO using the money line in All games against AFC South division opponents.
The record is 24 Wins and 7 Losses since 1992 (+22.6 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(463) NEW ORLEANS @(464) SAN FRANCISCO
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using the money line in All games as a favorite.
The record is 9 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-22.15 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(463) NEW ORLEANS @(464) SAN FRANCISCO
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using the money line in Road games against NFC West division opponents.
The record is 5 Wins and 11 Losses since 1992 (-20.2 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(453) DETROIT @(454) MINNESOTA
Play AGAINST DETROIT using the money line in Road games versus division opponents.
The record is 20 Wins and 65 Losses since 1992 (-42.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(455) PHILADELPHIA @(456) NY GIANTS
Play AGAINST NY GIANTS using the money line in Home games in November games.
The record is 19 Wins and 29 Losses since 1992 (-33.7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(451) JACKSONVILLE @(452) KANSAS CITY
Play ON KANSAS CITY using the money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.4 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in all games.
The record is 3 Wins and 21 Losses for the last two seasons (-18.7 units)
BET NOW!

8:25 pm 11/3/2016
(307) ATLANTA @(308) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using the money line in All games in home lined games.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-17.75 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

Half Time


4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(465) CAROLINA @(466) LA RAMS
Play ON LA RAMS in the first half in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 21 Wins and 5 Losses for the last three seasons (+15.5 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(461) PITTSBURGH @(462) BALTIMORE
Play ON PITTSBURGH in the first half in All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(451) JACKSONVILLE @(452) KANSAS CITY
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE in the first half in All games in all games where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5.
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (-12.4 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(459) NY JETS @(460) MIAMI
Play AGAINST MIAMI in the first half in All games versus division opponents.
The record is 2 Wins and 12 Losses for the last three seasons (-11.2 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(451) JACKSONVILLE @(452) KANSAS CITY
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 5 Wins and 17 Losses for the last two seasons (-13.7 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

Half Time Over

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play OVER CLEVELAND on the first half total in All games after 2 or more consecutive losses.
The record is 12 Overs and 2 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play OVER CLEVELAND on the first half total in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!

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NFL TRENDS

Half Time Under


8:30 pm 11/7/2016
(473) BUFFALO @(474) SEATTLE
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the first half total in All games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line.
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(453) DETROIT @(454) MINNESOTA
Play UNDER DETROIT on the first half total in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(459) NY JETS @(460) MIAMI
Play UNDER MIAMI on the first half total in Home games off a win against a division rival.
The record is 7 Overs and 25 Unders since 1992 (+17.3 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL POWER LINES

NFL Power Line ratings are calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current betting line.

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(451) JACKSONVILLE @(452) KANSAS CITY
Play Line: KANSAS CITY -9.5
BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY -21
Edge On: KANSAS CITY 11.5

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(459) NY JETS @(460) MIAMI
Play Line: NY JETS 4
BTB PowerLine: NY JETS +3
Edge On: NY JETS 1

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(461) PITTSBURGH @(462) BALTIMORE
Play Line: PITTSBURGH 3
BTB PowerLine: PITTSBURGH -5
Edge On: PITTSBURGH 8

1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(455) PHILADELPHIA @(456) NY GIANTS
Play Line: PHILADELPHIA 2.5
BTB PowerLine: PHILADELPHIA -5
Edge On: PHILADELPHIA 7.5

4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(465) CAROLINA @(466) LA RAMS
Play Line: CAROLINA -3
BTB PowerLine: CAROLINA -4
Edge On: CAROLINA 1

4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(463) NEW ORLEANS @(464) SAN FRANCISCO
Play Line: NEW ORLEANS -3
BTB PowerLine: NEW ORLEANS -4
Edge On: NEW ORLEANS 1

4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play Line: SAN DIEGO -5
BTB PowerLine: SAN DIEGO -12
Edge On: SAN DIEGO 7

4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(467) INDIANAPOLIS @(468) GREEN BAY
Play Line: GREEN BAY -7
BTB PowerLine: GREEN BAY -12
Edge On: GREEN BAY 5

8:30 pm 11/6/2016
(471) DENVER @(472) OAKLAND
Play Line: DENVER 0
BTB PowerLine: DENVER -5
Edge On: DENVER 5

8:30 pm 11/7/2016
(473) BUFFALO @(474) SEATTLE
Play Line: BUFFALO 6.5
BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO +5
Edge On: BUFFALO 1.5

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

10/27/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
10/30/2016 10-10-0 50.00% -500
10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 72-89-4 44.72% -12950

O/U Picks 67-94-5 41.61% -18200

Triple Plays:..... 18 - 24 - 1

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s six-pack

— Cubs 9, Indians 3– Game 7 is tonight in Cleveland.

— November 21 Texans-Raiders Monday night game is being played in Mexico City.

— Raiders don’t play another true road game until December 8 in KC; they finish with three road games in last four weeks, all division games.

— Patriots got a 3rd-round draft pick from Cleveland for LB Jaime Collins.

— Chicago Bulls are 3-0 for the first time in 20 years.

— Oklahoma City Thunder gave Victor Oladipo $84M for four years.


Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

13) Steelers-Ravens play in Baltimore Sunday, with both teams off a bye week; wouldn’t it have made sense for this to be the Thursday night game this week? Football wasn’t meant to be played on three days’ rest.

12) Chicago Bears are the only NFL team that does not have a defensive player who has ever played in a Pro Bowl.

11) Bears’ offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains went to college at Arkansas, where he held for kicks for four years and learned football from coach Houston Nutt.

Loggains could’ve gone to a smaller school and played QB, but he thought he wanted to be a coach and chose to learn from Nutt, who was a very good coach before going on TV.

10) ESPN fantasy sports guru Matthew Berry was once a writer for the TV show Married with Children.

9) Dolphins are favored over the Jets this week; this is only 2nd time in last 12 years that Miami is favored in its post-bye game. Overall, Dolphins are 6-12 in their last 18 post-bye games.

8) There is a TV show on the History Channel called American Pickers, where two guys drive around in a van and try to buy collectible stuff from older people who live in mostly rural areas.

Why older people? Because they want to find people who are just looking to get rid of stuff, preferably for less money. Sometimes you get mad at the two guys, especially Frank, who thinks he is smarter than everyone else, but that is part of the business of making money, I guess.

The guys own two shops where they re-sell the stuff for a profit. It is oddly entertaining and worth watching.

7) In three of last five seasons, Dwight Howard has made less than half his foul shots; he is off to an 11-24 start this year, after his 8-20 game against the Kings Monday.

Howard makes $23M a year, has already banked $167M in salary in his career. How can I be a better free throw shooter than he is?

6) Clippers TV announcer Ralph Lawler is joy to listen to; always watch as many Clipper games as I can. Clippers were so bad for so long and now they’re good, so you’re happy for him. Lawler is enthusiastic and you can tell he is a real basketball fan.

5) Oklahoma City traded Ersan Ilyasova to Philly Tuesday, after he played only 62 minutes in three games for the Thunder- they acquired him as part of the Serge Ibaka deal.

This means when he plays for the Sixers, it’ll be the 5th team Ilyasova has played for in his last 79 games, going from the Bucks to Detroit to Orlando to the Thunder to Philadelphia.

On one hand, teams want you enough to trade for you; on the other hand, once they have you, then don’t mind getting rid of you.

4) Good news for NC State’s basketball team; freshman 7-footer Omer Yurtseven will be able to play for the Wolfpack this year— he becomes eligible December 15, enough time to get in a few games before ACC play starts.

Yurtseven is a 5-star level recruit, a huge get for Mark Gottfried.

3) There is a story going around that Nick Saban was interested in the Giants’ coaching job last January, and that the team almost hired him. Somehow, comedian Tom Arnold is involved with spreading this story, which makes it a little weirder.

You get the feeling Saban has one more coaching stop in him and it will be an NFL job— he has nothing left to prove in college.

2) Mets closer Jeurys Familia got arrested in New Jersey on domestic violence charges, which is bad news for Mets, seeing as Jose Reyes got suspended 52 games LY for a similar offense.

Aroldis Chapman got a 30-game suspension this year and he was never arrested for his offense.

1— Obscure Fact of the Day: Eddie Johnson played 17 years in the NBA, scored 19,202 points; he holds the record for most points scored in the NBA, without ever making an All-Star team.

Jamal Crawford has a good chance to break that record; he has scored 17,117 points; he is 36, looks like he would have to play two more years at his current pace to set the new record.

[StarDust Bum]

Close Calls - Week 8
November 1, 2016

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 8 of the NFL regular season.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) 27, Washington Redskins 27 (48½): The scoring summary looks like this was a very exciting game in London with the teams mostly trading scores, penalties and missed opportunities made watching it a bit less interesting than it could have been. Cincinnati was even with the favorite spread with a three-point edge heading into the fourth quarter and that was the margin with under seven minutes to go after trading touchdowns. After trading punts, Washington drove into field goal range in the final minutes, but had three incomplete passes in a row to settle for the tying kick.

Both teams picked up yardage on their first overtime possessions, but ultimately had to punt with penalties playing a role. A penalty gave Washington a key third down conversion on its next drive and it appeared the win was in hand with a 34-yard field goal attempt but the kick was missed. The Bengals approached midfield with just over a minute to go in the overtime quarter, but fumbled and Washington wasn’t able to get close enough to try another kick, failing on a Hail Mary attempt as a tie was the final result.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) 33, Green Bay Packers 32 (51): These NFC contenders traded scores the entire game with no consecutive scoring plays throughout. Green Bay led 21-13 late in the second quarter before an Atlanta touchdown, and the Falcons wound up going for two and the tie and falling short, points that would prove important later on. The Packers added a field goal before halftime for a five-point edge, but Atlanta scored the only points in the third quarter, taking a two-point edge into the final frame. With the help of a pair of Atlanta penalties, the Packers went 86 yards to score with about four minutes to go in the game, getting the two-point conversion as well for a 32-26 edge. Atlanta managed to answer with relative ease, facing just two third-and-short plays on an 11-play drive to take a one-point lead with 31 seconds to go. The Packers produce a comeback drive in the final 30 seconds but did enough for the underdog cover.

New Orleans Saints (+1) 25, Seattle Seahawks 20 (48): The Seahawks led by one through two and three quarters in this game with both teams settling for several short field goals with a 17-16 edge entering the fourth quarter. The Saints connected for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to go up by five, failing on the two-point conversion attempt. Seattle reached the New Orleans 5-yard line on its next possession with a new set of downs, but went backwards before ultimately settling for a 21-yard field goal to remain trailing by two points. That kick was also important in keeping the game ‘under’ the total as New Orleans also settled for a field goal just after the two-minute warning to lead by five again. Seattle had plenty of time remaining and wound up getting a final play from the 2-yard line, missing on a back corner fade that would have flipped the side and total results.

New York Jets (-2½) 31, Cleveland Browns 28 (45½): This line hit as high as -5½ for the Jets early in the week before it was announced that Josh McCown would return. Cleveland led 20-7 at the half looking for its first win, but the Jets took over in the second half, scoring the next 24 points to take a 31-20 edge with four minutes to go in the game. Cleveland wound up scoring a touchdown with 12 seconds to go and some had to sweat on a two-point conversion try which the Browns succeeded in, making for a 31-28 final.

Oakland Raiders (PK) 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 (48½): The Raiders rallied back from a 10-0 early deficit with a 17-10 edge by the start of the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay scored early in the fourth quarter but the extra-point was missed. On the next Tampa Bay drive, the Buccaneers made amends with a touchdown and a two-point conversion to go up 24-17. The ‘over’ looked promising as the Raiders answered including getting a fourth-down conversion on a 75-yard drive to tie the game at 24-24 with 1:38 remaining. After forcing a punt, the Raiders got the ball back and had a 50-yard kick to win the game but missed left. Overtime was needed and in a record setting penalty performance the Raiders went backwards after reaching the Tampa Bay 23-yard line and settled for a 52-yard kick that Sebastian Janikowski missed right on its first possession. Those on the ‘under’ started to have some serious hope with three straight punts, but a marginal effort put the Raiders at their own 40-yard line with 3:21 to go in overtime. Facing fourth-and-3 and sitting outside of field goal range, the Raiders connected for a 41-yard touchdown to win the game and seal the ‘over’ as a tie was a very real possibility if Tampa Bay had gotten the stop.

Denver Broncos (-4) 27, San Diego Chargers 19 (43½): Down 17-7, the Chargers scored late in the third quarter, but only pulled to within four points with a blocked extra-point. Denver completed a 15-play drive to lead 24-13 early in the fourth quarter but on the next Broncos possession, a 24-yard interception return put San Diego within five. The Chargers had allowed a pick-6 earlier in the game but they again couldn’t make it a 3-point margin as they failed going for two after their own defensive touchdown. Denver hit a bit play to reach the red zone but settled for a field goal to put the margin at eight points. San Diego went 73 yards on the next drive but failed with four straight incomplete passes from the Denver 2-yard line with fewer than three minutes to go. Denver had to punt pinned deep as the Chargers got the ball back with still two minutes to go in good field position but the Chargers could not convert near midfield as Denver escaped with a win and the cover.

Dallas Cowboys (-5) 29, Philadelphia Eagles 23 (43½): The Eagles led most of the Sunday night game including a 10-point edge in the fourth quarter, but Dallas trimmed the margin to seven points following a Philadelphia fumble. The Eagles had a 10-play drive to the Dallas 30-yard line, but a third down mishandled snap pushed the Eagles out of field goal range and they punted to the Dallas 10-yard line. Dak Prescott led a 90-yard drive to tie the game with about three minutes to go, a score that sealed the ‘over’ as well. Overtime was needed and getting the ball first Dallas didn’t surrender it, going 75 yards in 12 plays and over seven minutes for a game and spread winning touchdown. The result was certainly only possible in the new overtime rules as Dallas went for it on 4th-and-1 from the Philadelphia 28-yard line rather than kicking a field goal as Philadelphia would have still had a possession if Dallas only came up with three points.

[StarDust Bum]

Miami aiming for .500
November 1, 2016

Can Dolphins' Ajayi Make NFL History?

The NFL has some magical numbers when it comes to individual statistical achievements: 2,000 yards rushing or 5,000 yards passing to name two. But the NFL isn't close to Major League Baseball terms of mainstream important numbers. Even the most casual sports fans know what the MLB records for career or single-season home runs are, for example. Or the last player to hit .400. Now tell me the NFL single-season record for passing yards or rushing touchdowns. Didn't think so.

But a pretty significant NFL record could be set this Sunday when the Miami Dolphins (3-4) come out of their bye week to host the AFC East rival New York Jets (3-5). In a Week 6 upset of Pittsburgh, Dolphins second-year running back Jay Ajayi, a fifth-round pick out of Boise State, carried 25 times for 204 yards (8.2 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. The next week in a 28-25 upset of the Buffalo Bills, Ajayi rushed 28 times for 214 yards (7.6 ypc) and a touchdown.

Ajayi is just the fourth player in league history with back-to-back 200-yard games, joining Hall of Famers O.J. Simpson (twice) and Earl Campbell and former Dolphin Ricky Williams. None of those three managed to hit 200 yards three games in a row. Ajayi goes up against the Jets' top-ranked rushing defense on Sunday; New York allows only 74.0 yards per game. The Dolphins are 3.5-point favorites on BetOnline's NFL odds to win a third straight game and reach .500. The total is 44.

Very deservedly, Ajayi was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week following both his 200-yard games. What made the outburst even more stunning was that Ajayi opened the season as the backup to Arian Foster and did little even when Foster, who retired last week, got injured.

In the first four games, Ajayi totaled 31 carries for 117 yards (3.8 ypc). His long rush in the first four weeks was 11 yards. Ajayi had a 62-yard TD run against the Steelers and a 53-yard non-scoring run against the Bills. In those two games, Miami's offense went from 28th in the NFL in rushing to ninth.

One big difference in Ajayi's success has been the fact his projected starting offensive line -- Mike Pouncey at center, Branden Albert at left tackle, Laremy Tunsil at left guard, Jermon Bushrod at right guard and Ja’Wuan James at right tackle -- played together for the first time this season against Pittsburgh. Pouncey missed the first four games due to injury. Albert missed a couple.

It also helps that Coach Adam Gase has shifted to a ground-and-pound approach to take pressure off struggling quarterback Ryan Tannehill. He has been sacked just once in the two-game winning streak. Tannehill went down 17 times in the first five games.

Miami hasn't won three in a row since 2014. The Dolphins were 0-2 vs. the Jets last year. Ajayi had just three carries for six yards against them.

The Fins haven't made the playoffs since 2008, but that's potentially attainable with a win over New York and a very manageable schedule upcoming. Following the Jets, the Dolphins play four straight games against teams that finished currently have losing records in the Chargers, Rams, 49ers and Ravens. The only 2015 playoff teams left on the schedule are Arizona (Week 14) and New England (Week 17), both in south Florida. The Cardinals also have a losing record and the Patriots might have nothing to play for by then.

Since 1990, only eight teams have made the playoffs after starting 1-4, but the 2016 Dolphins could join that club as long as Ajayi doesn't break down from the heavy workload.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 9 Opening Line Report: Raiders, Bronocs meet with first place on the line

The Broncos open their big matchup with the Raiders as 1-pt home faves with the first in the AFC West on the line.

Every team in the NFL reaches at least the season’s midpoint this weekend, and perhaps a game beyond that for teams that haven’t had their bye week yet. We talk about some key Week 9 opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+1)

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver is atop the AFC West, but not alone, as on-the-rise Oakland is also 6-2 SU heading into a Sunday night showdown. The Broncos (6-2 ATS) held off San Diego 27-19 as a 3.5-point home favorite in Week 8, continuing an interesting trend: in their last 12 victories, the Broncos have held their opponents to 20 points or less all 12 times.

Oakland (5-3 ATS) has continued its rise by hanging out in Florida the past two weeks and bagging consecutive wins and covers. In Week 7, the Raiders bested Jacksonville, and on Sunday, Oakland edged Tampa Bay 30-24 in overtime as a 1-point underdog.

“This is a great prime-time matchup, with these teams vying for sole possession of first place in the very competitive AFC West,” Childs said. “The Raiders are hot, winning and covering their past two games, but that was against the god-awful Jags and the very inconsistent Bucs. Against the Bucs, they set a record for number of penalties recorded in an NFL game (23).”

Childs noted the Raiders are a stout 5-0 SU and ATS on the road, but have failed to cash in their three home games this season.

“So this is truly a test, going up against the defending Super Bowl champs,” Childs said. “We considered making this game a pick ’em, because while the Raiders have struggled at home, they still have great support in Oakland. And being the Sunday night game, we fully expect a raucous crowd.

“But we also know that our customers are going to bet the Broncos in this game, and we wanted to open them a slight favorite, which we did, having them lay 1. So far, 80 percent of early action has come in as we expected, on the Broncos, and we’re sure that money will continue to come in on the Broncos up until game time. We’ll be fine going into this game needing the Raiders, they’re definitely live, and no question they’re going to bring a monster effort in their first Sunday night game since I can remember.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

This is annually a key game for these AFC North rivals, but Pittsburgh will still be without Ben Roethlisberger (knee), and Baltimore is flailing after a strong start. The Steelers (4-3 SU and ATS) are coming off their bye, following a 27-16 home loss to New England as a 7.5-point pup on Oct. 23.

The Ravens (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) are also coming off the bye, having lost four in a row SU and five in a row ATS. In Week 7, as a 2.5-point road ‘dog to the New York Jets, Baltimore lost 24-16.

“Maybe no team in the NFL needed a bye more than the Ravens,” Childs said. “Baltimore simply can’t move the ball on offense and recently fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman. The extra week should help new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg implement his schemes and systems.”

Sportsbook.ag strongly considered Ravens -3 as the opening number, with Pittsburgh trotting out Landry Jones as the starting quarterback.
“I really wanted to make the Ravens a solid 3-point favorite. But we simply couldn’t,” Childs said. “The history of this rivalry has been intense and ultra-competitive, and both games last year landed on 3. Throw in the fact that bettors are very down on this Ravens team, and we simply couldn’t open up as high as a field goal, so we opened Ravens -2.5. So far we’ve seen steady, two-way action.”

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-7)

Minnesota (5-1 SU and ATS) still has some Week 8 work to complete, traveling to Chicago to face the Bears in a Halloween Monday nighter. But that didn’t stop Childs from posting the Vikings’ Week 9 line a little bit earlier, largely due to Detroit’s performance Sunday. The Lions (4-4 SU and ATS) saw their three-game SU and ATS streak halted in a 20-13 loss at Houston as a 1-point ‘dog

“Detroit went into Houston with some nice momentum, but those wins were all at home, and yesterday, they simply couldn’t execute on offense,” Childs said. “If the Lions can’t move the ball against Houston on the road, you can’t expect them to do much against the best defense, playing in the loudest stadium in the NFL.

“So far, we’ve seen decent two-way action at our current number of Minnesota -7, but so much will depend on how the Vikings play tonight. Their performance will impact how we reopen this line Tuesday.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)

New York hopes to pick up where it left off before its bye week, as the Giants had won two in a row SU and ATS, including a 17-10 victory at Los Angeles giving 2.5 points in Week 7 to reach 4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS. Philadelphia (4-3 SU and ATS) started the season 3-0 behind rookie QB Carson Wentz, but has now lost three of four, including Sunday’s 29-23 overtime setback at Dallas catching 5 points.

“I suspect we’ll open up the Giants about a field-goal favorite, but we haven’t opened this game yet, as the Eagles played on Sunday night,” Childs said.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 3

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ATLANTA (5 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 4) - 11/3/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 6

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (4 - 4) at MINNESOTA (5 - 1) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 61-87 ATS (-34.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 128-165 ATS (-53.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (4 - 3) at NY GIANTS (4 - 3) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (6 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 8) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (3 - 5) at MIAMI (3 - 4) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 68-95 ATS (-36.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 51-78 ATS (-34.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) at BALTIMORE (3 - 4) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 6) - 11/6/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (2 - 5) at LA RAMS (3 - 4) - 11/6/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 155-121 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-111 ATS (-42.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-171 ATS (-62.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-86 ATS (-37.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 5) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (4 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 5) - 11/6/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 26-4 ATS (+21.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (6 - 2) at OAKLAND (6 - 2) - 11/6/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 44-77 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-48 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (4 - 4) at SEATTLE (4 - 2 - 1) - 11/7/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 40-65 ATS (-31.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 3

8:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games


Sunday, November 6

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. MIAMI
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 8 games on the road
Miami is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. CLEVELAND
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. KANSAS CITY
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home
NY Giants are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

4:05 PM
CAROLINA vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing Carolina

4:05 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against New Orleans
San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
TENNESSEE vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Tennessee is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
San Diego is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee

4:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Green Bay's last 22 games

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home


Monday, November 7

8:30 PM
BUFFALO vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Thursday, November 3

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Game 307-308
November 3, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.632
Tampa Bay
130.649
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-3 1/2); Over


Sunday, November 6

Denver @ Oakland

Game 471-472
November 6, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
137.291
Oakland
134.176
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 3
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 1
44
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+1); Under

Tennessee @ San Diego

Game 469-470
November 6, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
128.214
San Diego
136.794
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 8 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 4 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-4 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Green Bay

Game 467-468
November 6, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
132.756
Green Bay
131.515
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+7 1/2); Under

Carolina @ Los Angeles

Game 465-466
November 6, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.114
Los Angeles
132.994
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+3); Over

New Orleans @ San Francisco

Game 463-464
November 6, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
131.745
San Francisco
123.645
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 8
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
52
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-3); Under

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Game 461-462
November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
128.005
Baltimore
135.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 7
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 1 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-1 1/2); Over

NY Jets @ Miami

Game 459-460
November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
126.670
Miami
134.510
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 8
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-3 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Cleveland

Game 457-458
November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
138.641
Cleveland
124.455
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 14
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-7); Over

Philadelphia @ NY Giants

Game 455-456
November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
136.006
NY Giants
134.048
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+3); Over

Detroit @ Minnesota

Game 453-454
November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
128.193
Minnesota
136.618
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 8 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6
41
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-6); Under

Jacksonville @ Kansas City

Game 451-452
November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
120.994
Kansas City
140.404
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 19 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 8 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-8 1/2); Over


Monday, November 7

Buffalo @ Seattle

Game 473-474
November 7, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.301
Seattle
142.404
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 11
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-6 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Thurs – Nov. 3

Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 8:25 PM ET
Atlanta: 1-11 ATS as a favorite
Tampa Bay: 12-6 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points




NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's game
Falcons (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-4)— Underdogs are 20-3 vs spread in Atlanta games since Quinn has been their coach. Over is 7-1 in their games this year; road teams covered seven of eight games. Falcons are 3-1 on road (4-0 vs spread) but were dogs in all four. Bucs are 0-3 at home this year after 30-24 OT loss to Oakland; Raiders ran 85 plays for 626 yards, averaged 8.2 ypa. Tampa allowed 24 or less points in its wins, 27+ in its losses. Tampa Bay had three TD plays of 23+ yards in 31-24 win (+3) in season opener in Atlanta; Winston averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt. Bucs won last three series games, by 3-4-7 points; LY was their first series sweep since ’07. Falcons are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South divisional games so far this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 9 lines that make you go hmmm...

The Cowboys have a great offense and defense, holding four of their past five opponents to less than 20 points.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 51)

I was somewhat surprised at the opening line for the New Orleans at San Francisco game. The Saints are but a mere 3-4 but those four wins have come in the last four weeks of play. New Orleans has played a really tough schedule to date and only sitting a game or so from being inside the bubble, they have to be thinking this game at San Francisco is a “must-win” in order to keep those playoff hopes alive.

I made this game closer to -6 so I see tremendous value at this level. The 49ers are now losers of six in a row and have allowed point totals of 46, 37, 24, 33, 45 and 34 in those games. They’ve scored 27, 18, 17, 21, 16 and 17 points for respectively. With the added information that RB Carlos Hyde is questionable for San Francisco, I just don’t see the Niners keeping up to the Saints’ offensive potential.

All the incentive lies with New Orleans as San Francisco appears to be a stumbling mess of limited talents and off-the-field issues. I don’t see where the San Francisco money will be coming from, so take the Saints early in the week before this climbs too high on game day.

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)

I will always be a Buffalo backer but we were too smart this past week to let the game versus New England go by without that being a take for the favorite. Unfortunately, Buffalo’s ill-fated results are not based on lack of talent but the talent it does have not suiting up to play. Buffalo is at Seattle in what appears to be a slaughter waiting to happen.

Again, the Bills will be without a host of starting players this week both on the offensive and defensive sides at Seattle, which will prove to be their demise once again. Buffalo is a team sinking fast after such high expectations at the start of the season and can’t possibly be thinking it can compete at Seattle’s level. The Seahawks were one foot inbounds away from continuing their climb in the NFC and have to be thinking this game versus Buffalo is important to have one week before their big showdown at New England.

The incentive is with Seattle and it has the dominant defense that will assuredly silence any notions the Buffalo offense has of being effective. After two tough games on the road, Seattle should be licking its chops at the site of a weakened herd limping into their home field.

At -7, the number is saying Seattle would be a PK or 1-point favorite at Buffalo, which would be absurd. I had this in the -9 range hoping I wasn’t too low. If Buffalo was healthy, that’s another story. But it isn’t, so this leaves this game as one-sided as it can get.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (+7.5, 47)

Dallas is at Cleveland and although Cleveland may be up for the game, the 0-8 team may lack the firepower to stay up with the NFC’s best team. This is another game where I had a disparity in the opening line. I have no less than -9 here.

Dallas is a proven winner on the road with victories in Washington, San Francisco and at Green Bay. The Cowboys are playing great defense in holding four of their past five opponents to less than 20 points.

The Browns have played six different quarterbacks this season. It’s kind of tough to get any continuity with a key position like that up in the air. There’s no larger disparity of incentive than between these two teams this week. Dallas doesn’t want to be the first team to lose to Cleveland and that’s probably the weakest argument among the 100 other reasons why they should take this contest handily.

Dak Prescott is hitting his stride and with the continuing shadow of Tony Romo’s return, he has the incentive to make every game a solid one. It’s very hard to come up with anything for Cleveland, outside of a freak breakout on an arbitrary week playing one of the best teams in the NFL. We have our doubts on that. Another game to hit up the favorite early in the week as there is no running to the counter to play Cleveland this week.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-5, 47)

Tennessee is at San Diego and the new-look Titans, winners of three of their last four games have been scoring at a high rate. This matches well with San Diego which has been an Over team for pretty much the entire year.

San Diego totals have been 60, 52, 48, 69, 65, 63 and 46 with one 34 sprinkled in the mix. The Titans have not been below 47 the past five games. With the current total at 47, I’m thinking this may be an easy target to reach.

Both teams have hot quarterbacks with ratings in the mid 90’s. They’ve combined for over 4,000 yards in the air already and both have at least twice as many TDs thrown as interceptions. Playing in San Diego, we’re going to assume the weather will be ideal and the track will be fast. I don’t see much reason to believe this will be a slowdown game, so let’s get this one Over the 47 and take the easy way to the cashier.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 9
November 2, 2016

THURSDAY, NOV. 3

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Falcs "over" 7-1 this season including opening loss at home vs. Bucs. TB has won and covered last three meetings. Falcs 4-0 vs. line away this season, Bucs 0-3 at home TY and 5-15 last 20 vs. spread at Raymond James.
Tech Edge: Falcons and "over," based on team and 'totals" trends.

SUNDAY, NOV. 6
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jax 1-5 vs. spread last six as visitor, also "over" 5-2 this season and 13-6 last 19 on board. Chiefs only 1-5 vs. line last six at Arrowhead.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Into last Monday at Chicago, Vikes on 19-4 spread uptick even after recent loss vs. Eagles. Zimmer has covered last six as host. Vikes have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series.
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Giants now undefeated last three vs. line TY after winless vs. spread first four of season. But G-Men have failed to cover last three at home vs. Birds. Philly has won and covered big last 4 and 5 of last 6 meetings. Last four meetings at Met Life Stadium all "over" as well.
Tech Edge: Eagles, based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Hue Jackson teams at Oakland (2011) and Cleveland TY are "over" 12-3 last 15.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY JETS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Miami rallying with wins and covers last two TY. Jets have covered last five and 8 of last 10 in series. Though Jets 1-6-2 vs. spread last nine away from Met Life.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets, based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens now no covers last four TY, 7-16-2 last 25 reg.-season games on board. But did beat Steel twice LY in a pair of 3-point games. Ravens have won SU last three at home vs. Steel. Steel "under" 20-9 last 29 on board.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Ravens, based on "totals" and recent series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Niners no cover last six TY, and Chip Kelly Philly & SF teams 3-11 last 14 on board. Chip teams also "over" 10-3 last 13. Saints "over" 25-15 last 40.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Saints, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at LOS ANGELES (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Rams no covers last three TY but Panthers just 2-6 vs. points since Super Bowl. Rams "under" 16-7-1 last 24.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at GREEN BAY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Colts "over" 7-2 last nine since late 2015 and "over" 15-7 last 22 away from Lucas Oil. Colts also 2-6-1 as dog since 2013.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Colts, based on Indy trends.

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TENNESSEE at SAN DIEGO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts 5-10 last 15 as chalk (1-1 TY). Bolts also "over" 7-2 last 9, while Titans now "over" five in a row. Mularkey has covered last three this season.
Tech Edge: -"Over" and Titans, based on "totals" and team trends.

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DENVER at OAKLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Broncos haven't lost SU or vs. line at Coliseum since 2010. Denver 15-1 SU, 14-2 vs. line last 16 on AFC West road. Broncos 8-1 vs. line last nine in series and 10-4-1 vs. points last 15 away from home. Raiders 0-3 vs. line at home TY, 2-9 vs. spread at Coliseum since LY.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on series and team trends.

MONDAY, NOV. 7
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BUFFALO at SEATTLE (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Buffalo 2-5-1 last eight vs. line away from Orchard Park. Bills however are 12-6-1 as dog since 2014. Hawks "over" 6-2-1 last nine as host.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Bills, based on "totals" and team trends.