The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 66-83-4 44.30% -12650

O/U Picks 61-88-5 40.94% -17900

Triple Plays:..... 12 - 17 - 1

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

JAC at TEN 08:25 PM

JAC +3.0 *****

U 43.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Jags routed by another former coach in 36-22 loss to Titans
October 28, 2016

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) Gus Bradley isn't worried at all about his job security as coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

His quarterback Blake Bortles says he doesn't think about that topic.

Yet, being routed by a pair of former Jaguars coaches in the span of five days can't be very helpful to Bradley's future in Jacksonville, and some of his other players are concerned.

After Jack Del Rio and his Oakland Raiders beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville 33-16 on Sunday, the Tennessee Titans and Mike Mularkey - the coach owner Shad Khan fired after one season - embarrassed the Jaguars 36-22 on Thursday night in a game where their play matched the flat mustard of their uniforms.

''I'm not making any excuses,'' Bradley said. ''It was bad.''

This loss dropped Bradley's record in four seasons to 14-41, and he already came in with the second worst winning percentage for any coach in NFL history with at least 50 games of experience. Only Bert Bell (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh) fared worse, and he also was the owner.

The Jaguars melted down so much late in their loss to the Raiders that Khan reportedly spoke to the Jaguars on Monday trying to learn what has gone wrong after he spent millions upgrading both the roster and their home stadium. Khan made it clear earlier this year that a winning record was the ''reasonable expectation.''

Bradley said the session with Khan went about an hour.

Jacksonville already has had its bye earlier this month, and this will be the last time the Jaguars (2-5) have more than a week between games the rest of this season if Khan decides he can't wait to make a coaching change. Asked if he expects to still be the coach when the Jaguars visit Kansas City on Nov. 6, Bradley said he does.

''I worry about this team and why did we perform like that in the first half and figuring out OK, how can we get it right?'' Bradley said.

Bortles said he knows the NFL is a business. But he said the coach wasn't the person committing penalties, turning the ball over or not making plays.

''Somebody's got to take the blame eventually, I get that,'' Bortles said.

Wide receiver Allen Hurns said he is worried about Bradley being fired.

''No matter what it is, you try not to listen to it or let it get to you, but it's kind of impossible now,'' Hurns said. ''Hopefully they just stick it out with him.''

As ugly as that loss to Oakland was, the Jaguars looked even worse against the Titans.

Tennessee nearly had more points (24) than the Jaguars had total offense (29) late in the second quarter. The Jaguars did have more personal foul penalties (two) than first downs (one), and they even had the ball go off the back of Arrelious Benn's helmet when he drew a penalty for interfering with Marc Mariani trying to catch a punt.

Jacksonville rarely threatened Marcus Mariota. He had plenty of time to throw most of the night, and he found Titans running wide-open over and over again. By halftime, Tennessee had outgained the Jaguars 354-60 and led 27-0.

''The first half was inexcusable,'' Bradley said. ''We didn't come out to play. I don't know what the answer is. Do we play with some anxiety? Yeah, I can say I felt like we pressed too much. ... There's not a lot to be said, but it wasn't good enough obviously.''

Bortles struggled to find time to throw against Tennessee's pass rush. He even bounced one pass after Bradley gave him a vote of confidence early this week, saying: "I firmly, firmly believe in Blake Bortles, without a doubt.''

But the Jaguars' run game was so poor that Bortles also led them in rushing with 11 yards on two carries through three quarters. He finally helped Jacksonville avoid being shut out when he found Julius Thomas for a 10-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter. Bortles added a two more TDs in the final 3:11 to make the final margin more respectable.

''It's a broken record,'' Bortles said. ''It's a lack of execution, it's dumb mistakes. The same stuff every week.''

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder on a Friday

— Arizona is 22-11-1 vs spread in last 34 non-divisional games.

— Buccaneers are 1-7 in last eight games as a home favorite.

— Detroit is 5-10 in its last 15 games against AFC teams.

— Denver is 20-9 vs spread in its last 29 divisional games.

— Cowboys are 7-19 as a home favorite vs NFC East teams.

— Minnesota covered 10 of its last 12 as a favorite.

Friday’s List of 13: Things I’m looking for this weekend…….

13) Average total in Falcons’ games this year is 61.1; Packers were held to 14-16 in their two losses, scored 23+ in their wins. You do the math.

12) Don’t sleep on Navy-South Florida Friday night; Middies run the ball down your throat but USF has really good speed, so we’ll see. Tough to prepare for the Navy option game. Navy is also 24-10 as a road underdog.

11) Houston is 4-0 at home, 0-3 on the road; Texans have a short week after losing in Denver Monday night. Every Detroit game is close; they’re fun to watch. All seven Lion games were decided by 7 or less points.

10) TCU beat Texas Tech 55-52/82-28 last two years; not like the Red Raiders are any better on defense now, but Horned Frogs are lot younger- they struggled to beat Kansas 24-23 two weeks ago.

9) Jimmy Graham was a great player for the Saints, but in Seattle? Not so much. Seahawks are in the Superdome this week. Interesting game.

8) World Series visits Wrigley Field for first time since 1945. Teams split first two games in Cleveland. Schwarber sits; no DH in NL parks.

7) New England actually has a revenge motive this week in Buffalo. Bills blanked Patriots 16-0 in Week 4, the last game of the Jacoby Brissett era in Foxboro.

6) Baylor-Texas are not friendly rivals; lot of chirping goes back/forth on the recruiting trail. Unbeaten Bears might send Charlie Strong packing with a win in Austin.

5) Cleveland Browns signed QB Joe Callahan this week, who played college ball at D-III Wesley College in Delaware; he had been with Packers/Saints this year and if McCarthy/Payton have an interest in a QB, this kid may be pretty good. Browns have used six QBs in seven weeks, so not like the kid could be any worse.

4) Nebraska is unbeaten and a 9-point underdog in Madison, where they were smoked in last two visits. Badgers have played a very tough schedule so far.

3) Eagles-Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, with two rookie QB’s. Teams that were hot going into their bye week have stumbled a little coming out of the bye. This should be a good game.

2) Clemson-Florida State in Tallahassee is an ACC classic; Seminoles are thin on defense, but coming off a bye (which they badly needed) am curious to see how FSU does. Last time Clemson went to Tallahassee as the higher-rated team? 1989.

1) Huge trap game for the Vikings in Chicago Monday night, with Jay Cutler expected back for the Bears. Minnesota was sloppy (four turnovers) in Philly last week; need to right the ship.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

10/27/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 66-84-4 44.00% -13200

O/U Picks 61-89-5 40.67% -18450

Triple Plays:..... 12 - 19 - 1

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 8
October 28, 2016

The ‘under’ posted a 9-6 record last weekend and bettors saw similar team tendencies continue. The Falcons and Colts both went to the high side again in Week 7 and are now 6-1 to the ‘over’ this season. On the low side, Pittsburgh and New England kept their 5-2 ‘under’ marks in check as the Patriots earned a 27-16 win over the Steelers last Sunday. Other notable ‘under’ clubs include the New York Giants and Arizona, who both have seen the low side go 5-2 as well. Through seven weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 55-51-1.

Things to Watch

-- The last of the three London games takes place on Sunday with the Redskins and Bengals meeting from Wembley Stadium at 9:30 a.m. ET. The ‘over/under’ has gone 8-8 in the first 16 games played in the NFL International series from the United Kingdom.

-- As of Friday evening, Atlanta and Green Bay are staring at the largest total of Week 8 at 52 ½ points. The Falcons scoring defense hasn’t been great but it’s been much worse at home (32.3 PPG) than on the road (25.5 PPG). Other clubs that have struggled at home compared to their numbers as visitors include the Saints (39.3 PPG), Buccaneers (32 PPG) and surprisingly the Broncos (18 PPG).

Seattle’s defense is allowing 8.3 PPG in its last eight regular season road games, which has helped the ‘under’ go 6-2 (75%) in those contests.

According to the VI Matchup Index, the Jets-Browns ‘over’ (44) is the most wagered one-sided total for Week 8 as of Friday.

Coast-to-Coast

I touched on this seasonal trend again in last week's Total Talk and it’s been profitable, so we’ll continue to make uses aware of it in Week 8 and check out not one but two more matchups that are in play this Sunday.

In 2015, West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone saw the ‘over’ go 11-5 (69%) in those games and that trend has continued this season. The angle went 2-0 last week and it's 8-0 to the ‘over’ on the season. Even though the Oakland-Jacksonville outcome was helped with a meaningless touchdown late, the Chargers and Falcons shattered their high total (53 ½) with a combined 63 points.

Arizona at Carolina: The Panthers blasted the Cardinals 49-15 in last year’s NFC Championship and that ‘over’ (47) connected easily. Including that result, Arizona is 7-1 to the ‘over’ in last eight NFC road games outside of the division. Carolina is off the bye and has watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 at home but one of those tickets came against the Vikings and Cam Newton was out for the other. The time change move to 1:00 p.m. ET could affect Arizona and it certainly did when the Cardinals visited Buffalo (33-18 loss) In Week 3.

Oakland at Tampa Bay: High total (49) for this matchup and the Raiders defense (430 YPG) is still statistically the worst in the league. What could concern ‘over’ bettors is that T-Bay is running the ball more with a combined 78 attempts the last two games and we all know the 'ground and pound' tempo bleeds the clock. Also, Tampa Bay is off a 34-point effort last Sunday, the third time they eclipsed 30 this season. Unfortunately, the Bucs followed those high-scoring outputs with seven points in each of the following games, both losses.

In case you’re interested, East Coast teams playing in the Western Time Zone have seen the ‘over’ go 4-3 with all three ‘under’ tickets taking place in Arizona.

Divisional Action

The Jaguars and Titans kicked off the divisional action in Week 8 with a high-scoring matchup and bettors should note that all five AFC South games this season have gone ‘over’ the number.

Four more matchups remaining this weekend and two of them are quick rematches.

New England at Buffalo: The Bills blanked the Patriots 16-0 in Week 4 and the ‘under’ (41) easily connected. As most know, QB Tom Brady wasn’t suited up for that loss. Since his return from suspension, the team has averaged 31.6 PPG and gone 3-0. New England has had a knack of scoring at Buffalo in recent seasons, averaging 38 PPG in their last four trips and that production helped the ‘over’ go 3-1. The Bills have seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 at home this season and they lit up the scoreboard with 31, 33 and 45 points. New England’s defense is underrated (15.3 PPG) and it appears the Buffalo won’t have RB LeSean McCoy available.

San Diego at Denver: In the 2014 and 2015 encounters, the two games played at Qualcomm Stadium between the pair went ‘under’ and the two tilts played at Mile High went ‘over’ the number. In the first matchup this season on Oct. 16, San Diego stifled Denver 21-13 at home and the ‘under’ (44 ½) easily connected. With all that being said, do we play the déjà vu angle on Sunday and lean to the high side? Denver has watched the ‘under’ cash in four straight and the offense won’t have RB C.J. Anderson available in this spot. The Chargers continue to be a great ‘over’ bet (5-2) and it will be interesting to see if their second-ranked scoring offense (29.4 PPG) will be able to score on a Denver defense that's great, but also plagued with injuries.

Philadelphia at Dallas: (See Below)

Minnesota at Chicago: (See Below)

Under the Lights

All three primetime games went ‘under’ last week and the results were very clear-cut. Including this past Thursday’s outcome between Jacksonville and Tennessee, the ‘under’ has gone 14-9-1 (61%) this season in the night contests.

Philadelphia at Dallas: These teams haven’t seen a total (43) this low since they met in the final game of the 2008 season. A lot of has changed since then as both clubs will be starting rookie QBs and most bettors are aware that the visitor has won six straight in this series and the ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in that span. The matchup between Philadelphia’s fifth-ranked defense (307 YPG) versus the third-ranked offense of Dallas (401.5 PPG) is going to be great to watch and very difficult to handicap. If you consider that a wash, then where will the points come from? Philadelphia is averaging 26 PPG but that number has been skewed, especially when you look at their total offensive yards (322.2, Ranked 28th). If you’re looking for an ‘over’ angle, then you can point to Dallas going 4-0 to the high side in its last four games when playing with rest.

Minnesota at Chicago: The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and another low-scoring game is expected Monday with a low total (41) posted. The Bears are ranked last in scoring offense (15.9 PPG) and they’ll be facing the best scoring defense in the Vikings (14 PPG). Minnesota’s offense was held to a season-low 10 points last week at Philadelphia as they had four turnovers and QB Sam Bradford was sacked six times. Chicago QB Jay Cutler is expected to start and he’s easily one of the toughest signal callers to handicap. You just never know what to expect!

Fearless Predictions

For the second consecutive week ($20), I’ve failed to notch a total winner but I connected on the team total and teaser wager fairly easily. We’re still in the black ($410) as we approach the midway point of the season and that’s never a bad thing. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Detroit-Houston 45 ½

Best Under: N.Y. Jets-Cleveland 44

Best Team Total: Indianapolis Over 24 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 58 Washington-Cincinnati
Over 41 Kansas City-Indianapolis
Under 53 N.Y. Jets-Cleveland

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 8 Essentials
October 29, 2016

This Sunday’s NFL card is the lightest of the regular season, so the joke can be made that the league is taking it easy on its viewership. Oh, we’ll watch, but could use a pick-me-up through a few well-played, competitive games given what we’ve had to sit through of late. With one last game being played in London for 2016, we’re still going to be exposed to a marathon Sunday with 14 consecutive hours of pro football consumption available. Behave responsibly. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 8:

Sunday, Oct. 30

Cincinnati vs. Washington: Corner Josh Norman and TE Jordan Reed traveled with the ‘Skins overseas and are expected to pass through concussion protocol to take the field at Wembley. The biggest draw would be a Norman-A.J. Green matchup, the first meeting between the two. Green leads the NFL with 50 receptions and should get opportunities considering Washington struggles to stop the run and can’t really get away with selling out on coverage. Jeremy Hill ranks 15th in the league in rushing yards (439) and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry after last week’s monstrous 9-carry, 168-yard effort against Cleveland. Tyler Eifert (back/ankle) made his debut last week, so the Bengals offense is whole since tackle Andrew Whitworth has overcome his concussion issues. Cincinnati is hoping to win consecutive games for the first time this season in order to get back to .500, while the ‘Skins attempt to keep pace in the competitive NFC East. Reed, offensive linemen Trent Williams (knee) and Brandon Scherff (shoulder) and CBs Norman and Bashaud Breeland, Norman will likely play, but RB Matt Jones has been ruled out. Rookie Robert Kelley is expected to get the bulk of the carries. Cincy has won three straight meetings against Washington, who hasn't won in this series since 1991.

New England at Buffalo: The last time the Patriots saw the Bills, rookie Jacoby Brissett was gutting it out through a thumb injury as Tom Brady sat the final of his four-game suspension and Jimmy Garoppolo was sidelined by shoulder pain. Buffalo won 16-0. Now that Brady has won all three games since returning, putting up an average of 31.7 points per game, New England will look to avenge its lone loss and get over against a defense that shut it out for the first time since ’06. The Pats have beaten the Bills in eight of the last 10 and are 28-4 against them since Dec. 2000, so they’ll be looking to avoid the first sweep at the hands of their AFC East rival since 1999. Rex Ryan never swept Belichick while with the Jets, but did beat him twice in the same season after splitting the ’10 regular-season meetings before winning an AFC Divisional Playoff. You can count on both coaches pulling out all the stops to get this one, but Buffalo’s realistic hopes for an upset hinge on whether LeSean McCoy and Marcell Dareus make an impact as they try to overcome hamstring injuries. It's not certain they'll even play. Many key Bills missed practices this week, so New England is the healthier team in the rematch.

N.Y. Jets at Cleveland: QB Josh McCown will return to the Browns lineup after breaking his collarbone in Week 2, replacing Cody Kessler (concussion) after working with the starters most of the week. McCown threw for 260 yards and two scores and helped the Ravens out to a 20-2 lead, so he’s certainly capable of helping Cleveland avoid an 0-8 start. WR Terrelle Pryor and standout CB Joe Haden will play, so the Browns are as healthy as they've been in weeks. The Jets will have a major absence up front with center Nick Mangold (ankle) stuck in a walking boot and have tackle Ryan Clady dealing with a shoulder issue, so we’ll see how the offensive line holds up for the next phase of angry Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. the world. RBs Matt Forte (toe) and Bilal Powell (knee) are expected to suit up for New York, which has won three straight over the Browns, last losing in ’07.

Detroit at Houston: The Texans, at least for this week, are hoping that their horrendous play on the road is of no consequence as they look to move to 5-0 at NRG Stadium, taking an AFC South lead into their bye week. Brock Osweiler has had a miserable time in losses at New England, Minnesota and Denver, averaging 4.1 yards per pass and completing just 52.4 percent. He’s been more effective at home, but has still thrown six interceptions, which makes this matchup against a vulnerable Lions defense one Osweiler must perform well in. Top corner Darius Slay will miss this game with a hamstring injury suffered last week, but the Lions should have DT Haloti Ngata back up front. Offensively, they’ll keep Houston’s hands full with RB Theo Riddick and TE Eric Ebron both back from ankle injuries. Only Indianapolis and New Orleans have fewer picks than these two teams, so taking chances in the downfield passing game could be part of both game plans against banged up secondaries. Matthew Stafford has thrown 15 TD passes and just four INTs this season and is on a run of three straight games without being picked off, posting wins over Philly, Washington and L.A. while throwing for 716 yards and eight scores.

Kansas City at Indianapolis: The Chiefs have won 14 of their last 16 regular-season games, the best record in football during that stretch. By comparison, the Colts are 7-9. Although no one is running away with the AFC South, Indianapolis has a tough schedule ahead that features road games against Green Bay, Minnesota and Oakland, so winning tough home dates are a must. There have been 48 or more combined points scored in every Colts game thus far, aided by 20 or more points scored in all but one fourth quarter they’ve been involved in. The Chiefs will have CB Phillip Gaines back after he missed last week’s win with a knee injury, so they’re among the league’s healthiest teams as they return to Indy for the first time since that memorable 45-44 loss in January of 2014 ended Andy Reid’s first season at the helm. The Colts are 6-1 against Kansas City since ’07.

Seattle at New Orleans: Coming off that 6-6 tie in Arizona, the Seahawks haven’t lost since that 9-3 Week 2 setback in L.A. on Sept. 19, finding ways to thrive despite Russell Wilson’s hampered state, injuries across the defense and a porous offensive line. Although they miss him terribly, they’ve also survived the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, who ended the last playoff run these Saints made the last time these teams squared off with two beast-mode TD runs in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. That was three seasons ago. New Orleans has gone 7-9 twice since and is back under .500 again, surrendering a league-worst 32.5 points per game. Drew Brees will likely face a Legion of Boom that will be missing safety Kam Chancellor for a second straight game, but Richard Sherman (leg) is expected to play after being hurt against the Cardinals. The Saints have injury concerns along the offensive line and throughout the defense, so it’s not surprising to see them in a home underdog role again.

Oakland at Tampa Bay: The Bucs rallied from a 14-0 deficit in San Francisco last week, shaking off a groggy start coming off their bye to head back cross-country with a 34-17 win. They’re in search of their first three-game winning streak since 2013 as they host a Raiders squad that was already in Florida when the Bucs left the Bay Area, having beaten Jacksonville and training in-state the rest of the week. Oakland is 5-2 for the first time since ’01, sharing the AFC West lead with Denver. The Raiders are a perfect 4-0 on the road, while Tampa is winless in two outings at Raymond James Stadium and are just 6-23 at home over the past four seasons. Jameis Winston was the Bucs’ grand prize for all of their suffering but has had an inconsistent second season. He’ll be looking to take advantage of a defense that has allowed more passing yards than any in the league, while counterpart Derek Carr hopes to continue a strong run that has seen him throw for a touchdown in every game while being picked off just three times. Dating back to Tampa’s 48-21 Super Bowl XXXVII win, all four meetings between these teams this century have featured at least 50 points.

Arizona at Carolina: Only the Browns, Bears and 49ers have a worse record than the Panthers, whose chances to rally in time to defend their NFC title this postseason are on life support. For them, the sky has truly fallen. It just feels like the same has happened to the Cardinals, whose kicking miscues cost them a chance to climb above .500 for the first time all season. As it is, Arizona hasn’t lost since Oct. 2, but are relying heavily on RB David Johnson because QB Carson Palmer hasn’t been able to get comfortable behind his offensive line. That presents an interesting dilemma for this game since the Norman-less Carolina secondary has been so vulnerable. Palmer, who threw four interceptions in a 49-15 loss during his last trip to Charlotte for the most recent NFC Championship, will get speedster John Brown (hamstring) back, but x-factor Michael Floyd is a game-time decision. The Cardinals would love to pick up such a significant road win entering their bye week, allowing them to regroup for the season’s second half feeling like they’re in good shape. Meanwhile, the Panthers come out of their off week looking to prove that their season isn’t over. This should be their Super Bowl. Can Cam Newton win this one? His team is healthier than it has been all season and has won the last two games in this series.

San Diego at Denver: These teams will square off for the second time this month. The Chargers held serve at home on the Thursday night that opened Week 6, pulling out a 21-13 upset. Trevor Siemian returned from a shoulder injury but struggled, leading the offense to just three points through three quarters as San Diego’s defensive line dominated to help snap Denver’s 15-game road winning streak against AFC West opponents. The victory saved the Chargers season and was followed by last week’s OT upset in Atlanta, so they’re looking to get back to .500 if they can pull off the first season sweep of the Broncos since ’10. Both teams harbor significant injury concerns on defense. The defending champs could be without LBs DeMarcus Ware and Brandon Marshall, DT Derek Wolfe and top corner Aqib Talib, who are all game-time decisions. San Diego safety Jahleel Addae, corner Brandon Flowers and LB Denzel Perryman, the reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week will also be touch and go. The ‘under’ has prevailed in three of the last four games between these teams.

Green Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have to be a little spooked, looking to avoid a collapse for the second consecutive year. After a 6-1 start last season, they ended up 8-8. After upsetting the defending champs, Atlanta was 4-1, but has since dropped consecutive games and enter this one with its tandem of backs both hobbling. Tevin Coleman will miss the game due to a hamstring injury, while Devonta Freeman will play after overcoming a hip issue. The Packers own the league's top run defense, leading the NFL in fewest yards allowed, yards per carry and rushing TDs allowed. Receiver Randall Cobb and LB Clay Matthews are both questionable with hammy issues, while Packers corners Damarious Randall and Quinton Rollins are likely to miss a second straight. Green Bay is on the road for the first time since Sept. 18, so we’ll see how Aaron Rodgers handles this test and whether his offensive line will give him time to get comfortable on the road. The officiating crew assigned to this one leads the NFL in defensive pass interference calls, so count on deep balls to Julio Jones and Jordy Nelson being a part of this one. The Packers have won the last four matchups with Atlanta, scoring over 40 points in two of the victories.

Philadelphia at Dallas: Another ref-related note highlights the Sunday night clash, since lead official Jerome Boger’s crew has thrown over 20 penalty flags per game, tops in the NFL. We’ll see how that affects the league’s top offensive line, although you figure they would have the advantage at home. The Cowboys rank third in the NFL in rushing yards and first in touchdown runs, riding their offensive front to make life easier for rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Even though Tony Romo began practicing, he won’t be a part of this one, but his presence will indeed be felt in the shape of pressure for Prescott to perform. The Eagles defense uncharacteristically used heavy doses of blitzing to dominate previously unbeaten Minnesota last week, so we’ll see what Jim Schwartz has in store in his first game as defensive coordinator against this NFC East rival. Rookie Carson Wentz will get his first look at Dallas’ defense, which will have CBs Morris Claiborne and Orlando Scandrick available. DE DeMarcus Lawrence (shoulder) will be in the lineup too. Philadelphia’s offensive line is already without the suspended Lane Johnson, but will have future Hall of Famer Jason Peters (bicep) in the mix. Dez Bryant, who suffered a hairline fracture in his knee a few weeks back, is also expected to return.

Monday, Oct. 31

Minnesota at Chicago: After three straight nights in the spotlight hosting the World Series, the Windy City will be on center stage once more thanks to this Monday night game, and as with the goings-on in Wrigley, you need to be aware of what Mother Nature is up to before picking aside, particularly on the total. Wind gusts should affect this contest, which sees the Vikings looking to avoid consecutive losses after faltering against the Eagles. Mike Zimmer, who has only had one losing streak of two games since taking the Minnesota gig, called out his offensive line for awful play in Philadelphia and is counting on a better effort. Jerick McKinnon, who took over for Adrian Peterson and gives the Vikes offense a different look as an option QB, is questionable with an ankle injury, the same ailment afflicting key safety Andrew Sendejo. Jay Cutler (thumb) returns to the Bears lineup after missing a month of action and is 8-5 against Minnesota despite a three-game losing streak. He’s thrown 26 touchdowns, but has only beaten Zimmer once. He many have RB Jeremy Langford back from a significant ankle injury, so Chicago should have a decent combination in play with him and rookie Jordan Howard available, but that’s likely to depend on whether starters Jake Long and Josh Sitton are back up front. Both were brought on board to stabilize a shaky offensive line, a prerequisite for beating Minnesota.

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 8
October 29, 2016

Week 7 Record: 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS
Overall Record: 21-21 SU, 17-24-1 ATS

Review: Following a few poor weeks, we got back on track by cashing in four of six games. Washington couldn't hold onto a late lead in Detroit, while Kansas City pushed against New Orleans at home.

Seahawks (-2 ½, 48) at Saints – 1:00 PM EST

Seattle
Record: 4-1-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

The Seahawks failed to reach the end zone for the second time this season in a road divisional game, but didn’t lose at Arizona. Seattle finished in a 6-6 tie with the rival Cardinals, but Arizona outgained Pete Carroll’s squad 443-257. The Seahawks had their three-game winning streak snapped, as Seattle has lost only once this season as it shoots for its second road victory. Russell Wilson has never played at the Superdome, as Seattle is making its first trip to New Orleans since 2010 when the Seahawks lost, 34-19 as 11-point underdogs.

New Orleans
Record: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 165/1

The best underdog team in the NFL resides in the Big Easy as the Saints own a perfect 4-0 ATS mark when receiving points this season. New Orleans cashed as seven-point ‘dogs in a 27-21 setback at Kansas City last week, as Drew Brees threw a late touchdown pass to get the Saints within the number. Since losing the first two games in the home favorite role to the Raiders and Falcons, New Orleans is going for its second consecutive home victory after knocking off Carolina as 2 ½-point underdogs in Week 6. The Saints will be searching for their first win over the Seahawks since 2010, as New Orleans has dropped the last three matchups, including two in the postseason.

Best Bet: Seattle -2 ½

Patriots (-6 ½, 47) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

New England
Record: 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS, 5-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/5


The last time the Patriots and Bills hooked up in Week 4 at Gillette Stadium, Buffalo blanked New England, 16-0 as 3 ½-point underdogs. That was the last (and only) loss suffered by New England and the last time the Patriots played without Tom Brady, who was wrapping up his four-game suspension. Since Brady returned to the lineup in Week 5, the Patriots are 3-0 SU/ATS and the three-time Super Bowl champion has thrown for 1,004 yards and eight touchdowns. New England allowed 45 points the first two weeks of the season, but has given up only 62 points in the past five games (4-1).

Buffalo
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1
The Bills began the season with consecutive losses to the Ravens and Jets (who are a combined 7-9), but won four straight games, including three victories over NFC West opponents. Buffalo squandered a 17-6 lead in last Sunday’s 28-25 setback at Miami to fall to 1-2 inside the AFC East, as the Bills were outrushed, 256-67. Running back LeSean McCoy racked up only 11 yards on seven carries, but suffered a hamstring injury that will likely keep him out against New England. The Bills have dropped 11 of the past 12 home matchups with the Patriots since 2004, while allowing New England to score at least 31 points in five of the past six meetings at New Era Field.

Raiders at Buccaneers (PK, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 32/1

The Raiders remained in the Sunshine State after cruising past the Jaguars last Sunday, 33-16 as short underdogs. Oakland improved to 4-0 away from the Black Hole as running back Latavius Murray returned to the lineup and scored two touchdowns. The Raiders have won six of their last seven road games since last Thanksgiving, but own a 1-2 SU/ATS record in their past three away interconference contests. In four games with a total of 47 ½ or higher, the Raiders have gone OVER the total in each of those contests, while sailing OVER in three of four road games this season.

Tampa Bay
Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 165/1

If the Falcons lose and the Buccaneers win on Sunday, Tampa Bay moves into first place in the NFC South at 4-3. Atlanta and Tampa Bay meet up on Thursday night at Raymond James Stadium, but the Bucs need to take care of their second straight Bay Area team on Sunday. Tampa Bay rallied past San Francisco last Sunday, 34-17 as the Bucs accumulated more than 500 yards of offense. The Bucs haven’t performed well at home this season by losing to the Rams and Broncos, while posting a 3-7 SU/ATS record at Raymond James since the start of 2015.

Best Bet: Oakland PK

Cardinals at Panthers (-3, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 3-3-1 SU, 3-4 ATS, 5-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The last time the Cardinals visited Bank of America Stadium in January, Arizona was blasted by Carolina in the NFC championship, 49-15. The Panthers’ defense intercepted Carson Palmer four times as Arizona failed to make its second Super Bowl in franchise history. A season later, Arizona heads to Charlotte sitting at .500 after finishing in a 6-6 tie against rival Seattle last Sunday night. The Cardinals missed a chip-shot field goal in overtime to win, as Arizona failed to cash as 2 ½-point favorites. Arizona owns a 3-3 SU/ATS record in the Eastern Time Zone since last season, as the Cardinals were blasted at Buffalo back in Week 3.

Carolina

Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

The Panthers’ season isn’t over yet, but Carolina needs to go on a winning streak in order for a chance to defend their NFC title. Carolina has won only once with the lone victory coming against dreadful San Francisco in Week 2. The Panthers have lost to the Broncos, Vikings, and Falcons in the favorite role, as Carolina has already lost more games at Bank of America Stadium in the first six weeks than it did all of last season. Carolina hasn’t hosted Arizona in a regular season matchup since 2010 when the Panthers edged the Cardinals, 19-12 as 2 ½-point favorites.

Best Bet: Carolina -3

Chargers at Broncos (-4, 43 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

San Diego
Record: 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Chargers have been the most entertaining watch in the NFL this season with their plethora of close finishes. San Diego erased a 27-10 deficit to shock Atlanta in overtime last week, 33-30 to cash outright as 4 ½-point underdogs. The Lightning Bolts have covered three straight, while six of their seven games have been decided by eight points or less. San Diego goes for the season sweep of Denver after knocking off the Broncos in Week 6 as three-point ‘dogs, 21-13. The Chargers have dropped three straight visits to Sports Authority Field with the last victory in the high altitude coming in 2013.

Denver
Record: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1

The Broncos rebounded from consecutive losses to the Falcons and Chargers by pounding the Texans last Monday night, 27-9 as 8 ½-point home favorites. Denver rushed for 190 yards, led by C.J. Anderson’s 107 yards and one touchdown, but Anderson will miss Sunday’s action with a knee injury. The Broncos are also beat-up on the defensive end as linebackers Demarcus Ware and Brandon Marshall, along with cornerback Aqib Talib are all questionable. Denver is riding a four-game UNDER streak, while six of its last nine road games have finished UNDER the total.

Best Bet: San Diego +4

Packers at Falcons (-3, 52 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Green Bay

Record: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 11/1

The Packers are playing their first game away from Lambeau Field since Week 2 as Green Bay is fresh off a 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS homestand. After an embarrassing 30-16 home setback to Dallas in Week 6, the Packers rebounded with a 26-10 rout over the short-handed Bears last Thursday night as 7 ½-point favorites. Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers topped the 300-yard mark for the first time this season by torching Chicago for 326 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers have owned the Falcons recently by winning four straight meetings since the 2010 playoffs, including a pair of victories at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta
Record: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, 6-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 22/1

The fast start for the Falcons seems like a memory as Atlanta has dropped two straight since a 4-1 run to begin the season. Atlanta melted down in each of those defeats to Seattle and San Diego, leading by a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Seahawks and blowing a 17-point lead in an overtime setback to the Chargers. Following last week’s defeat to San Diego, the Falcons dropped to 1-10 ATS in the favorite role under Dan Quinn since the start of 2015. After finishing last season with nine consecutive UNDERS, the Falcons have sailed OVER the total in six of seven games.

Best Bet: Green Bay +3

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 8
October 29, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7

Week 8

1) New England -6.5 (742)
2) San Diego +5.5 (631)
3) Oakland +1.5 (627)
4) Atlanta -3 (463)
5) New Orleans +2.5 (460)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 8 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Jacksonville (+3) 72 Tennessee (-3) 98
Washington (+3) 260 Cincinnati (-3) 370
Green Bay (+3) 327 Atlanta (-3) 463
Detroit (+2.5) 326 Houston (-2.5) 326
Seattle (-2.5) 284 New Orleans (+2.5) 460
New England (-6.5) 742 Buffalo (+6.5) 241
N.Y. Jets (-3) 232 Cleveland (+3) 321
Oakland (+1.5) 627 Tampa Bay (-1.5) 276
Kansas City (-2.5) 402 Indianapolis (+2.5) 359
San Diego (+5.5) 631 Denver (-5.5) 163
Arizona (+3) 330 Carolina (-3) 374
Philadelphia (+4.5) 434 Dallas (-4.5) 360
Minnesota (-6) 398 Chicago (+6) 304

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
7 3-2 8-21-1 28%

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 8
October 29, 2016


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Colts are 10-0 ATS since Dec 18, 2011 as a home dog.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-13-1 ATS since Oct 23, 2011 after they had a turnover margin of less than +2 or better last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Packers are 0-7 OU since Jan 11, 2015 after a game where Randall Cobb had a touchdown.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Raiders are 14-0-1 OU since Oct 03, 2010 as a dog after a road game where they covered.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-12 OU since Dec 05, 2010 off a game as a dog where they scored at least 30 points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-16 ATS on grass of a road game when their opponent has forced fewer than 4.2 punts per game season-to-date.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC East heats up SNF
October 28, 2016

NFL Week 8 Sunday Night Football Betting Preview
Philadelphia Eagles (4-2 SU; 4-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-1 SU; 5-1 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Dallas (-4.5); Total set at 43

It's been a few years since a Philadelphia/Dallas game had as much hype as this week's showdown on SNF does and it's large part because of the rookie QB showdown we'll have. Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott have played well above the expected level either franchise had for the two going into the year and now this is a matchup with first place in the NFC East essentially on the line.

Philadelphia is already past the halfway point of their projected season win total at the beginning of the year (6) and were able to end a two-game slide last week with a 21-10 victory over the then undefeated Minnesota Vikings.

Wentz and the Eagles offense have used systematic drives to put up points on opponents, always taking what the defense gives them and continually moving the chains. Wentz's ability to protect the football has been a huge positive for the Eagles all year, but eventually Philly is going to have to cut him loose and take the strings off him if they want to be considered a legit contender.

Defensively, the Eagles have been one of the better units against both the run and the pass. Philly ranks 5th in the league in total yards allowed per game (307), 14th against the rush (102.7 yards/game) and 5th against the pass (204.3 yards/game). Both of those phases will be tested against Dallas this week, but it will be specifically the run stop defense as the Cowboys have the best rushing attack in the entire league.

Washington was able to run all over Philly two weeks ago in a 27-20 Redskins win, and it's tough not envisioning the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott and the stud offensive line that they've got not have quite a bit of success as well. That's why the Eagles better not be shy about opening things up for Wentz in the gameplan because if the Eagles are going to come away with the victory, it will likely be on the strength of Wentz's right arm and/or their defense stopping the run.

However, this game sets up so much better for the Cowboys to get the win SU and ATS and then we will see the Prescott vs. Romo talks heat up to an unheard of level.

Dallas is fresh off a bye week and the extra time off to prepare is always a plus. The Cowboys coaching staff have watched plenty of tape on what has worked against Washington so far this year (primarily the running game) and we should expect to see a heavy dose of Elliott and others carrying the ball for Dallas. The Cowboys have not lost SU or ATS since their Week 1 loss to the Giants and they haven't even allowed more than 17 points in their last four games.

That's being dominant on both sides of the ball and with WR Dez Bryant back in the fold this week, Dallas just has too many weapons for this Eagles defense to deal with. Philly's record may look good on the surface, but with two of those wins coming against the likes of Cleveland and Chicago, and the other two being at home against Pittsburgh at Minnesota in bad scheduling spots for both teams, going out on the road to hang tough with a quality foe is something I don't believe the Eagles are ready for.

As an organization, Dallas has always loved returning after a bye week as they are 11-5 ATS in those situations the past 16 times, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four against NFC opponents. The last thing the Cowboys want is the division to get more clustered up with a loss and then have to deal with the answer that everyone is waiting for to the question of will it be Romo or Prescott under center when Romo is healthy.

With the Eagles 2-5 ATS after allowing less than 15 points last time out and Wentz getting his first taste of what it means to be on the road in this Philly/Dallas NFC rivalry, I expect Dallas to stay consistent and come away with a relatively easy victory SU and ATS.

Best Bet: Lay the points with Dallas.

[StarDust Bum]

Bears look for MNF upset
October 28, 2016

NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football Betting Preview
Minnesota Vikings (5-1 SU; 5-1 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (1-6 SU; 1-6 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Minnesota (-5); Total set at 40.5

The Minnesota Vikings were the NFL's last remaining undefeated team entering Week 7 but that all changed after the game. The 1972 Miami Dolphins got to celebrate being the lone NFL team to finish a year undefeated rather early this season with the Vikings falling to the Eagles, and now Minnesota is left to pick up the pieces and get back on track.

Minnesota is back on the road to face a divisional opponent this week and although the Vikings and Bears have gone in different directions in 2016, this MNF game might not be as lopsided as the numbers and records suggest.

Chicago gets QB Jay Cutler back this week and while the jury on Cutler still remains negative, he is an upgrade over what the Bears had been trotting out there under center. Yes, Cutler is prone to INT's and poor decisions, but he's been around the NFL for long enough to be a productive player at the position and could surprise many this week.

The Bears have been atrocious for the most part this year, scoring more than 17 points once in seven games, and now they'll be up against one of the best defenses in the league. Even with all of Cutler's flaws as a NFL QB, Chicago would prefer to have him taking the snaps in a game like this and maybe even some moderate success against a top tier defense will help the Bears offense get back on track.

Typically, once a NFL team is 4-0 SU or better and suffers their first defeat of the year they are usually a good “play against” team the following week. That aura of invincibility is gone and it takes a week or two for those teams to get rolling again. That would mean that playing against the Vikings this week would be a play, but I don't believe that's the best betting option here.

Yes, Minnesota has their own issues to worry about – primarily a poor offensive line – but they will be able to put up some points against this porous Bears defense and I wouldn't be surprised to see this ATS result come right down to the wire with a point or two deciding the winner. That's why I believe the better betting play here is on the total as we could actually see some points in a primetime NFL game this year.

The total of 40.5 has been bet down after opening at 41 and it's in part because of the Bears ineptitude on offense and them facing a top quality Minnesota defense. But while nearly 65% of the bettors according to VegasInsider.com flock to the low side of this total, I'm going the other way.

Yes, the Bears have only scored more than 17 points once this year, and the Vikings gave up more than 17 points for the first time all year last week, but I'm expecting both teams to hit the 20-point mark and then decide a winner from there.

For one, Cutler's return allows Chicago to open up the playbook a bit more given his experience within the system. Whether that works out to a win or not is yet to be seen, but throwing different looks at this Vikings D and not becoming one-dimensional is how teams have success against them.

Cutler also loves to gunsling it and that's a style of play that generally favors points – whether it's for the Bears on a big play or a costly turnover that turns into points for the Vikings – we will see Cutler not shy about letting things loose.

Secondly, if Minnesota wants to become the legit Super Bowl contender that they deserve to be with their defense, their offense is going to have to start pulling it's own weight. Facing a Bears defense that has had its struggles this year is a good place to start and we could see Sam Bradford have a solid night.

Finally, although many of the recent historical trends between these two teams favor an 'under' play, two of the most four recent 'unders' between these organizations finished with 41 or more points. Both were in 23-20 victories for Minnesota – including in Minnesota's trip to Chicago last year – and this game should end up with a very similar result.

Best Bet: Take Over 40.5 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Browns will start McCown against Jets
October 28, 2016

BEREA, Ohio (AP) Josh McCown will start at quarterback for the Cleveland Browns against the New York Jets on Sunday.

The 14th-year pro has been sidelined since Sept. 18, when he broke his left collarbone in a home game against Baltimore. McCown began the season as the backup to Robert Griffin III before both injured their non-throwing shoulders.

McCown was medically cleared to play earlier in the week, and coach Hue Jackson formally chose him as the Sunday starter following the team's morning walkthrough.

The winless Browns have used six quarterbacks in their first seven games, including starters Griffin, McCown and rookie Cody Kessler.

Third-round pick Kessler suffered a concussion last week at Tennessee and remains in the NFL's head trauma protocol. He had been Cleveland's starter since Week 3.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 8
October 28, 2016

You might not see a better example of parity in the NFL than looking at the spreads for Week 8 action that features seven games hovering around the most key number of 3.

"The biggest number this week is the Patriots -6 at Buffalo," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said on Friday afternoon. "I had some extra time yesterday and added up all the point-spreads and came up with 39.5, which is the lowest number I can ever remember."

Six teams have byes this week, which helps lower the number, but you get the idea. The numbers are all tight, except for the one thorn in the side of all bookmakers so far this season -- the Patriots. The books have to elevate their true spread on the game to accommodate all the expected public action.

"We opened the Patriots -4 while the Bills were winning at Miami last week, but then they blew the lead late so we went with -5 and on Monday went to -6. This is already our most one-sided game of the week," Simbal said.

He knows the public money is just going to keep coming in, but also knows sharp money is there waiting to take +7 with the home team, so he and his team are reluctant to move too fast. The public loves the Patriots because they cash almost every week going 6-1 against the spread and 3-0 ATS behind quarterback Tom Brady. New England's only loss came in Week 4 at home to the Bills, 16-0, in the final game of Brady's four-game suspension.

Simbal says the big parlay he's going to have to beat down this week features the Patriots tied to the Seahawks, Jets and Vikings on Monday night. Minnesota has gone 5-1 ATS and are -4.5 at Chicago with Jay Cutler set to return. The Seahawks are -2.5 at New Orleans and have covered three of their last four. And then there's the Jets coming off a big win against the Ravens who are -2.5 at Cleveland, a play that is more about the public hating the Browns than liking the Jets.

But so far, CG Tech books have found some Browns takers and it's put Simbal in a bit of a dilemma.

"We'd like to remain at -3 for this game just because of all the public action, but we took a couple large bets on the Browns at +3.5 and +3 that forced us down," he said.

While he'd be happy to bank the sharp money on the 0-7 Browns if they fail to cover again, the bigger picture is the Jets covering along with the Patriots which will have a lingering risk effect with parlays.

"That Monday night game with Minnesota is already ugly with 10 times more action on them than the Bears. If the Patriots and Jets cover, it's going to look much uglier."

The Broncos lost at San Diego, 21-13, as three-point favorites in Week 6 action and they'll meet again this week where Denver opened as 6.5-point home favorites.

"So far, the biggest bet we've taken this week has been on the Chargers at +6.5, and then they also took +5," said Simbal noting that the action all came before Broncos RB C.J. Anderson was ruled out on Wednesday. The Broncos are now -4.5. San Diego has now covered three straight and three of four road games, including their first road win last week at Atlanta.

One of the better matchups of the week features Green Bay at Atlanta.

"We've been Falcons -3 all week and we've had great two-way action," said Simbal. "We're separated by only $2 between the two sides, really, that's it."

The silver ling for Simbal maneuvering around all those bookmaking traps with games hovering around 3 is that he's not worrying so much about teasers this week. The short numbers this week mean less attractive teasers.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 30

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at NO 01:00 PM

SEA -1.0

O 48.5 *****

NYJ at CLE 01:00 PM

CLE +2.0

U 45.5

OAK at TB 01:00 PM

OAK -2.5 *****

O 49.0

NE at BUF 01:00 PM

NE -5.0 *****

U 48.0 *****

DET at HOU 01:00 PM

DET +2.0 *****

O 46.5 *****

KC at IND 01:00 PM

IND +2.5

U 50.5

ARI at CAR 01:00 PM

CAR -2.5 *****

O 45.5