The bum's nfl november's best bets,trends, stats, news etc !

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest Week 13 NFL line moves

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans - Open: -7, Move: -6, Move: -7

The Houston Texans will be trying to keep pace in the AFC South and face as near a "must win" as you can get. They're two games back in the division and the Wild Card but face a Titans team that is mired in a five-game losing skid.

"We opened the Teans as 7-point faves at the start of the week, and took some sharp action on the Titans as 7-point underdogs that forced us to go to Texans -6," Stewart tells Covers. "On Thursday we started to see the public money come in on the home favorite Texans forcing us back to Texans -7 where we currently sit with 59 percent of the action on the Texans to cover."


San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens - Open: -5.5, Move: -6

These two AFC squads will be jockeying for playoff positioning at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore Sunday. Heading into this one, the Chargers hold the final Wild Card spot over the Ravens based on winning percentage in conference games.

"We opened the Ravens as 5.5-point home faves," Stewart says. "We have seen good two-way action on this game but took some sharp action on the Ravens moving us to Ravens -6 where we currently sit with 57 percent of the action on the Ravens to cover."


Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons - Open: +1.5, Move: +2, Move: +2.5

The Cardinals are in the driver's seat in the NFC West and will look to strengthen their grasp in Atlanta Sunday. Their six game SU and ATS winning streak came a halt at Seattle in Week 12, so a strong showing is vital for the Cards.

"The Falcons ar 4-7 and in first place in the NFC South hosting the first-place Cardinals who are coming off a tough loss in Seattle," Stewart said. "We opened the Cards as 1.5-point favs on the road. We have been seeing nothing but action on the Cardinals moving them to -2 then eventually -2.5 where we are currently sitting. I could see us going got Cards -3 at some point as we 75 percent of the Cardinals to cover."


New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers - Open: -3

The centerpiece of the Sunday schedule could certainly be a Super Bowl preview with the way the Patriots and Packers are playing. The Pats head in riding a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) and the Pack are enjoying a three-game streak (2-1 ATS) but have put up W's in seven of eight. Something has to give Sunday.

"Big game here as this could be a preview of the Super Bowl where we have this matchup as a +400 favorite for our possible Super Bowl matchup future," Stewart points out. "We opened the Packers as 3-point favorites at home but have seen nothing but action come in on the Patriots as 3-point underdogs. We are reluctant to move off that number as we believe that we will start to see Packer action come in as we get closer to game time. As we sit right now we have 76 percent of the action on the Patriots to cover the 3-point spread."


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: +1, Move: +2, Move: +1.5

The Sunday nighter showcases an AFC West rivalry with the Broncos and Chiefs meeting up at Arrowhead. The Broncos hold a one-game lead over the Chiefs and have won five straight meetings between the two (3-2 ATS).

"We opened the Broncos as 1-point road faves in Arrowhead and have seen nothing but Broncos action moving us to 1.5 and eventually 2," Stewart said. "We did take a few sharp bets that we respect so we went back to Broncos -1.5 where we currently sit with 81 percent of the action on the Broncos to cover. "

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Patriots, +3-- Not often you get points with red-hot Brady.

T4) Bills, -2.5-- Buffalo back at home on short week after blizzard.
T4) Bengals, -3.5-- AFC North is 10-1-1 vs NFC South this season.

3) Ravens, -5.5-- Baltimore is 24-10 as non-divisional home favorite.

2) Giants, -2.5-- Lot of faith in team on six-game losing streak.

1) Cardinals, -2.5-- Atlanta is 0-7 against teams outside its division.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 41-31

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 30


Frigid temperatures in Minnesota Sunday

Temperatures could be as low as 12 degrees when the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers square off at TCF Bank Stadium Sunday. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy before making way for clear conditions later on during the game.

Wind could have an impact as well as gusts are expected of up to 16 mph blowing toward the east endzone.

With kickoff just hours away, the Vikings are 2.5-point home favorites and the total is 42.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 30


'Zona-Atlanta game has seen plenty of line movement

It may seem shocking to some, Sunday's game between Arizona and Atlanta is a battle of division leaders and the line has seen more movement than most this week.

The 9-2 (8-3 ATS) Cardinals opened as 1-point road dogs versus the 4-7 (4-7 ATS) , but the line quickly jumped to a pick'em when the line opened, then jumped another two points the next day to sit at Cardinals -2.

The Cardinals were bet as high as -2.5, before being bet back down to Cardinals -1.5. With plenty of line movement make sure you take a look at the complete line history before placing your wagers Sunday.


Chargers look to end ATS skid

San Diego backers are hoping this is finally the week where the Chargers halt their skid against the spread, but it won't be easy with a road date in Baltimore.

The Chargers have failed to cover in six straight games and it feels like a different season when they were the best bet in the NFL at 5-0 ATS.

San Diego is currently a 6.5-point road dog against the Ravens, who are 6-5 ATS this season, but 4-1 ATS at home.


Giants the most popular pick

With Sunday's batch of early games drawing near, it's the New York Giants that are the most popular pick among bettors.

At the time of writing, the Giants - who are -2.5 at the Jacksonville Jaguars - were being backed by 75.44 percent of bettors. That put them just ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 3.5-point favorites at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and are being backed by 74.45 percent.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Broncos at Chiefs

November 28, 2014


DENVER BRONCOS (8-3) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-4)

TV/Time: NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -1.5, Total: 49.5

The Broncos visit the Chiefs on Sunday night for a matchup with major implications atop the AFC West.

Denver barely beat Miami last week, hanging on for a 39-36 home win, while Kansas City gave Oakland it's first win of the season in a humiliating 24-20 defeat. The Broncos have won five straight and seven of the past meetings when facing the Chiefs. But K.C. has won three straight home meetings in this series and has covered in four of the past five. Denver QB Peyton Manning threw for an average of 363 yards per game with six touchdowns and two interceptions in two wins over the Chiefs last season.

This Kansas City defense is improved though, allowing a league-low 328 total yards per game. Denver is 23-9 ATS in games played on a grass field over the past three seasons, and 11-3 ATS after having won two out of its previous three games over the past two seasons. They Broncos are, however, just 17-34 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play in two straight games since 1992.

TE Julius Thomas (ankle) and CB Aqib Talib (hamstring) are both questionable for Denver in this game, while the Chiefs will dearly miss S Eric Berry, who was placed on IR earlier in the week with a major undisclosed illness.

The Broncos are coming off of a very close victory over the Dolphins and they are going to need to be much better defensively going forward. One thing they have going for them is that they are allowing just 75.5 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and that kind of rushing defense should help slow down Jamaal Charles. Offensively, this team should have no trouble scoring despite Kansas City’s excellent passing defense.

QB Peyton Manning (3,558 pass yards, 34 TD, 9 INT) threw for 257 yards with four touchdowns and no picks against one of the best passing defenses in the league last week and he should be able to do it again on Sunday. Manning was looking for WR Demaryius Thomas (82 rec, 1,192 yards, 9 TD) often when throwing last week and Thomas certainly delivered with 10 catches for 87 yards and three touchdowns. The 87 yards was Thomas’ lowest total since Week 3 against the Seahawks, as he had gone over 100 receiving yards in seven straight contests, but the three touchdowns more than made up for it.

Another player who really has looked great for the Broncos is RB C.J. Anderson (368 rush yards, 1 TD). Anderson rushed for 167 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries against the Dolphins. He also added four catches for 28 yards. Anderson should be a huge factor in this game, as the Chiefs rushing defense has been very suspect this season.

Kansas City is coming off an embarrassing loss, as it gave the Raiders their only win of the season last week. They now face a Broncos team that beat them 24-17 in Denver in Week 2.

QB Alex Smith (2,211 pass yards, 13 TD, 4 INT) threw for 255 yards and rushed for 42 yards in that game, but was unable to find the end zone. He’ll need to take care of the football and could be called upon to throw more if this game ends up turning into a high-scoring affair. RB Jamaal Charles (772 rush yards, 8 TD) didn’t play in the first meeting between these teams and he could prove to be a big difference maker.

RB Knile Davis (423 yards, 5 TD) started in that game and rushed for 79 yards with two touchdowns. He also added six catches for 26 yards. Charles is much more explosive than Davis and should be able to find success against this defense.

This Chiefs defense is what could ultimately be why they win this game. They are allowing just 198.9 passing yards per game (1st in NFL) and if they can limit Peyton Manning by pressuring him, then they should have a good chance of coming away with a big victory.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 30


Cold day at Lambeau as Packers host Patriots

It looks to be a chilly day in Green Bay as the Packers host the New England Patriots in what many are considering a Super Bowl preview.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s in Green Bay and wind is slated to blow across the field at around 12 mph.

The Packers are presently 3-point favorites and the total is 58.


Rain, wind on tap in Buffalo Sunday

Buffalo's Ralph Wilson Stadium could be in store for a little rain and wind as the Bills host the Cleveland Browns Sunday.

As of Saturday, weather website Wunderground is predicting a 72 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the field at around 14 mph.

The Bills are 3.5-point home favorites and oddsmakers have a total of 42.5 on the board.


Covers not coming easily for Giants

Eli Manning and the New York Giants have been a very poor spread play recently, a trend they'll try to buck against Jacksonville Sunday.

The G-Men are 1-5 against the spread in their last six outings. New York is listed as 3-point road faves for the affair with a total of 45.


Titans failing to cover against weak competition

Tennessee's recent struggles against the spread have been well documented, and that's not just against winning teams.

The Titans are just 1-5-2 ATS versus teams with sub .500 records. Tennessee welcomes Houston (5-6) to town in Week 13.

Houston is currently 7.5-point home faves with an O/U of 42.5.


Redskins trending Under ahead of meeting with Colts

The Washington Redskins have had a hard time putting points on the board recently, which has equated to Under backers cashing tickets at the betting window.

The Under is 4-1 in the Skins' last five contests. Colt McCoy will be back under center facing off against Andrew Luck and the Colts in Indy Sunday.

Books currently have Washington as 10-point road dogs with a total of 51.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Redskins (3-8) @ Colts (7-4)-- Washington switches to McCoy at QB here, after three straight losses with Griffin at QB- they scored two TDs on 22 drives in last two games, with seven 3/outs. Redskins are 3-3 as road underdogs this year; four of their last five road games were decided by 4 or less points; they won McCoy's other start this season, in OT at Dallas. Indy split last four games but covered four of last five at home; they're 3-0 this year when laying 7+ points. Colts won last two series games 36-22/27-24; AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 6-12-1, 4-6 on road. Seven of last ten Colt games went over total; four of last five Washington games stayed under.

Titans (2-9) @ Texans (5-6)-- Mallett only lasted two games as Houston QB before he got hurt and is done for year, so back to Fitzpatrick for Texans, who won at Tennessee 30-16 (-3) in Week 8, running ball for 212 yards with +2 turnover ratio in Mettenberger's first NFL start. Houston won four of last five series games, winning 38-14/30-24ot in last two played here. Titan defense is having trouble getting off field; opponents are 19 of 32 on third down in last two games. Tennessee covered once in last five road games, with four losses by 14+ points; they've scored only six TD in 13 red zone drives in last four games. Houston lost its last three home games. Six of last eight Titan games went over total. Favorites are 5-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games.

Browns (7-4) @ Bills (6-5)—Cleveland coach Pettine was Bills’ DC last year. When three 7-4 teams are tied for last in a division, you know there is strength there. AFC North teams are 17-9-1 vs spread outside division. Browns won four of last five games, winning at Saints/Texans last two weeks. Short road trip here is their third week in row on road, historical soft spot (Denver’s loss at St Louis in Week 11). Snow was gone from Ralph Wilson Stadium as of Tuesday noon; Bills go on short week after waxing listless Jets Monday night. Buffalo scored 17 or fewer points in four of five losses; they’re 4-1 when scoring 20+, are 2-3 SU at home this season. Last three Cleveland games, four of last five Buffalo games stayed under total.

Chargers (7-4) @ Ravens (7-4)-- San Diego is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, losing its last two road games 35-21/37-0, after Chargers covered first three games as an underdog this season. Bolts lost field position in five of last six games, after winning it in first five. Baltimore won/covered last four home games by average score of 29-8, allowing total of three TDs on last 39 drives in home games; they ran ball for 366 yards in last two games. Ravens are 5-4 in last nine series games, with three of last four meetings decided by 5 or less points. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4; AFC West teams are 17-11 vs spread outisde their division, 7-3 as road underdogs. Three of last four Baltimore games went over the total.

Giants (3-8) @ Jaguars (1-10)-- Giants lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); they're 1-4 on road this year, but did cover only game as favorite (Week 5 vs Atlanta). Coach Coughlin was first coach in Jax history, getting them in playoffs in their second season. First home game in five weeks for Jaguars, who are 1-3 as home underdogs, losing by 27-8-14 with an upset of Cleveland. Giants scored 30+ points in all three wins this year; they've been outscored in second half of last six games (total of 52-10 in last three). Home teams won last five series games; Giants' wins are by 3-7-4 points- they haven't been here since '06. Four of last five Giant games went over total; five of last seven Jax games stayed under. Jaguars allowed average of 166.3 rushing yards in last four games, a red flag.

Bengals (7-3-1) @ Buccaneers (2-9)-- Tampa Bay is 0-5 at home this season, with three losses by 6 or less points; they've turned ball over 13 times in last five games (-7), ran ball for only 69 ypg last three weeks. Cincy won four of last five games, holding Texans to one TD on 17 drives last two weeks, but this is their third week in row on road, soft spot in NFL history. Bengals scored 17 or less points in all three losses. Bucs won last six series games, with four of six wins by 3 or less points; Bengals lost two of their three visits here, with last visit in '06. AFC North teams are 10-1-1 SU vs NFC South teams, which are 10-21 vs spread outside their division. AFC North road favorites are 2-5. Last five Tampa games, last three Bengal games stayed under total.

Raiders (1-10) @ Rams (4-7)-- Oakland had extra three days to prep after getting its first win vs Chiefs last Thursday; Raiders covered three of last four games, are 3-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 5-7-10-6-7 points. St Louis was underdog of 7+ points in six of last eight games; tough schedule- they're favored for first time since getting thumped by Vikings (with Peterson) in season opener. Rams are 4-4 as home favorites in Fisher era- they beat Seahawks/Broncos in last two home games. Raiders are 8-4 in series, but lost two of last three; this is their first visit here since '02. AFC West road underdogs are 7-3 outside the division; NFC West home favorites are 5-7. Six of last nine Ram games, three of last four Oakland games went over total.

Saints (4-7) @ Steelers (7-4)-- Pittsburgh won last five post-bye games, allowing 9.8 ppg, with four of five staying under. New Orleans is 4-7 despite being favored in 10 of its 11 games; they lost at home last three weeks; are 1-4 on road, with only win at Carolina in last road game. Over last four games, Saint opponents are 30-55 on third down- NO has only two takeaways in last three games. Steelers won four of last five games, are 4-1 at home, with odd loss to Bucs in Week 4; Pitt scored 41.3 ppg in winning last three home tilts, by 7-17-20 points. Home side won last four series games; Saints lost 37-14/38-31 in last two visits here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4 vs spread; NFC South road dogs are 5-7. Four of last five Pitt games went over.

Panthers (3-7-1) @ Vikings (4-7)-- Hard to lay points with Minnesota squad that hasn't averaged 6.0 ypa since Week 4 vs Falcons; their last two opponents were 16 for 28 on third down. Carolina is 1-7-1 since 2-0 start, still only half-game out of first; Panthers allowed 75 points in two games (0-1-1) on artifical turf this season- they lost last three post-bye games by combined score of 71-23. Minnesota is 1-0 as a favorite this year; four of its last five games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Carolina is 1-3 in last four games as road dog, allowing 37+ points in all four games. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 5-7. Three of last four Carolina games, five of last six Viking games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (9-2) @ Falcons (4-7)-- Arizona has two TDs on 19 drives in last two games; they have to be more cautious, with no viable backup behind Stanton. Redbirds are 4-1 on road, losing for first time last week; in last three games, Arizona ran ball 68 times for 138 yards. Atlanta is 0-7 outside its division; three of its last four games were decided by 1 or 2 points. Falcons have nine takeaways in last three games (+6); they're +5 for season and are still just 4-7. Home side won last seven series games; Cards lost last six visits here, with last win in '93. NFC South teams are 5-8 vs spread in non-divisional home games. NFC West road favorites are 6-1. Cardinals won two of three games this year on artificial turf. Five of last six games for both teams stayed under total.

Patriots (9-2) @ Packers (8-3)-- Since 2003, NE is 15-6-1 as road underdog, but they are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games on grass. Pats won last seven games, covering last four, scoring 42.5 ppg. Over last six games, Patriots are 41-76 on 3rd down; they've run 70+ plays in each of last four games. Packer opponents are 13-40 on third down in last three games; Pack won seven of last eight games, covering last four at home; outscoring opponents 128-9 in first half. Packers are 4-1 as home favorite this year, winning all five games by 7+ points. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-6 vs spread, 6-4 on road. NFC North favorites are 7-5. Over is combined 17-5 in these teams' games; 8-3 in Patriot games, 9-2 in Green Bay's.

Broncos (8-3) @ Chiefs (7-4)-- KC had three extra days to prep after losing at Oakland last game; Broncos (-12) beat Chiefs 24-17 in Week 2, despite KC having 75-46 edge in plays (Chiefs were 11-16 on 3rd down, Denver 3-8). KC's two empty trips to red zone were difference. Denver is on road for 4th time in five weeks; they won last three visits here by 7-8-7 points, but are 2-3 on road, with only wins at Jets/Raiders. Chiefs covered nine of last 10 games, won five of last six; they've won last four home games, beating the Pats/Seahawks. KC allowed 204-179 rushing yards in last two games, red flag after 201 yards Denver ran for last week. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Seven of last eight Denver games went over total. KC safety Berry is out after a mass was discovered in his chest this week; our thoughts and prayers are with him.

Dolphins (6-5) @ Jets (2-9)-- Miami won five of last six visits here, winning 30-9/23-3 in last two in series where road team won last four games. Jets covered against Packers-Pats-Steelers, all good teams, are 0-7-1 vs spread in other eight games; five of their last six losses are by 14+ points, evidence of lack of heart once they fall behind- they were outscored 56-9 in second half of last four games. Smith gets nod at QB for Jets, who are 2-4 at home, with losses by 8-7-14-20 points. Since 2006, Jets are 8-16-1 vs spread in divisional home games. Dolphins won four of last six games, losing last two on road, at Lions/Denver. Over is 28-10 in nationally televised primetime games this year. Five of last six Miami games, last three Jet games stayed under total.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Patriots at Packers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3, 58)

Aaron Rodgers typically provides the Green Bay Packers with a decided edge at quarterback, but that won't be the case when Tom Brady and the surging New England Patriots invade Lambeau Field on Sunday in a marquee matchup between the NFL's two highest-scoring teams. Rodgers has put up video game-type numbers in guiding the Packers to seven wins in eight games and into first place in the NFC North. Brady, meanwhile, has led New England to seven consecutive victories and the best overall record in the AFC.

Green Bay has been a juggernaut at home, winning all five matchups while averaging an eye-popping 43.8 points, including back-to-back 50-point outbursts in its last two at Lambeau. "We're playing Green Bay in Green Bay," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "That's where they've been very dominant, really, in terms of getting ahead and playing from ahead, first quarter. The numbers are staggering." New England has been just as explosive, averaging 39.6 points during its current winning streak and capturing five of those games by at least 22 points.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening, the spread has not shifted from Green Bay -3. The total, which opened at 58, jumped to 59 quickly after opening before dropping down to 57.5. The line has rested at the original 58.

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - CB Kyle Arrington (Ques-Neck), DT Dominique Easley (Ques-Knee), OL Cameron Fleming (Ques-Ankle) Packers - WR Davante Adams (Prob-Heel), LB Nick Perry (Ques-Shoulder), CB Jarrett Bush)

WEATHER FORECAST: A cold and windy affair is expected at Lambeau. Temperatures during game time will hover just below freezing with winds blowing northwest at 11 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-8.25) + Packers (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -0.75

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 O/U): New England is playing its fourth straight division leader, having dispatched Denver, Indianapolis and Detroit by a combined 119-50 score to become the sixth team in league history to post 14 consecutive winning seasons. Although Brady has been picked off four times in the last three games, he has 26 scoring passes versus six interceptions and has the luxury of throwing to the league's toughest matchup in tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has 45 receptions and six of his nine touchdown catches during the seven-game run. The Patriots also have leaned on Jonas Gray and newly signed LeGarrette Blount over the past two games to provide a bruising running game, while the tandem of cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner will be a key matchup against Green Bay's superb wideouts.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (8-3 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 9-2 O/U): Rodgers has thrown 30 touchdowns and been intercepted only three times, and his numbers at home - 29 scoring passes with zero picks - have helped Green Bay overtake Detroit for the division lead. Jordy Nelson has been Rodgers' favorite target with 68 catches for 1,066 yards and nine touchdowns, while fellow wide receiver Randall Cobb has 10 scores among his 58 receptions. The Packers have their own battering ram at running back in Eddie Lacy, who rushed for a season-high 125 yards in last week's 24-21 victory at Minnesota and has multiple TDs in each of his last two games. The Packers can be exploited by the run, ranking 30th in the league by allowing an average of 136.7 yards, but fast starts by Rodgers and Co. usually force opponents to the air to play catch-up.

TRENDS:

*Patriots are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
*Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games in November.
*Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games overall.

CONSENSUS: 52.29 percent of users are backing the Patriots +3 with 59.9 percent on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, November 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football: Broncos at Chiefs
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+1, 49.5)

The Denver Broncos attempt to continue their recent dominance in the all-time series when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs for a key AFC West battle on Sunday night. Denver, which holds a one-game lead over Kansas City and San Diego in the division, has won five straight meetings with the Chiefs - including a 24-17 victory at home in Week 2. The Broncos were cruising atop the West at 6-1 before losing two of three on the road, dropping them into a first-place tie with the Chiefs.

However, Denver rebounded with a 39-36 home triumph over Miami last Sunday, scoring 22 consecutive points in the fourth quarter as Peyton Manning sandwiched two of his four touchdown passes around a scoring run by C.J. Anderson to erase a 28-17 deficit. The late rally helped give the Broncos sole possession of the division lead as Kansas City earned the dubious distinction of becoming the first victim of the Oakland Raiders three days earlier. The Chiefs overcame an early 14-0 deficit and grabbed a 20-17 lead with nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before allowing Derek Carr's 9-yard TD pass to James Jones with 1:42 to play.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: After opening as a pick'em, the line briefly moved to Kansas City -1. By Wednesday, the line jumped the fence to KC +1 and got as high as +2. Currently the line sits at KC +1. The total has not moved from it's opening of 49.5.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - RB Ronnie Hillman (Ques-Foot), TE Julius Thomas (Ques-Ankle), CB Aqib Talib (Ques-Hamstrong), LB Brandon Marshall (Ques-Co9ncussion) Chiefs - TE Anthony Fasano (Ques-Knee), WR Donnie Avery (Prob-Groin), OL Donald Stephenson (Ques-Shoulder)

WEATHER FORECAST: Skies are expected to be partly cloudy with winds blowing to the north as high as 13 mph. Temperatures are expected to hover around the freezing point.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-6.25) + Chiefs (-5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -1.75

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 8-3 O/U): Julius Thomas took a step toward returning to action as he participated in practice on Thursday. The tight end missed last week's victory over Miami with a sprained ankle suffered in the previous game against St. Louis. Thomas entered Week 13 tied with Seattle's Marshawn Lynch for the league lead with 12 touchdowns. Manning registered his NFL-record 35th career game with at least four TD passes last week while also becoming the third player in league history with a scoring toss in 50 consecutive contests.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS, 4-7 O/U): As if playing for a share of the division lead isn't enough, Kansas City figures to rally around the situation involving safety Eric Berry, whose season came to an end due to a mass found on the right side of his chest last week. Berry, who was placed on the non-football injury list Monday, is expected to visit a lymphoma specialist for a final diagnosis. "I believe that I am in God's hands and I have great peace in that," Berry said in a statement. "I know my coaches and teammates will hold things down here the rest of the season and until I am back running out of the tunnel at Arrowhead. ... I will be back!" Dwayne Bowe needs 48 receiving yards to join Tony Gonzalez (10,940) and Otis Taylor (7,306) as the only Chiefs to eclipse the 7,000 mark.

TRENDS:

*Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
*Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games on grass.
*Broncos are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC West.
*Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 63.39 percent of users are backing Denver +1 with 59.6 percent taking the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 13

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 41)

Browns’ head coach Mike Pettine vs. Bills’ defense

It was Pettine’s work with the Buffalo defense that led to the big job in Cleveland. As the Bills defensive coordinator for 2013, he drastically shifted the franchise’s focus from a stop unit that allowed an average of 362.9 yards (22nd) in 2012 to a unit that gave up just 333.4 yards (10th) in 2013.

That success has continued, even with Pettine leaving for Ohio. Buffalo is fourth in yards allowed (312.2) and holding opponents to only 18.8 points per game. But not every opponent knows the ins-and-out of the defensive playbook, as well as most of the players executing it.

Pettine will absolutely have the inside info on the Bills’ stop unit and, with the Browns mired in a tight divisional race, he won’t be afraid to use every advantage he can. There’s bad blood between these teams already – thanks to offseason Twitter wars – so the gloves have already come off.


Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 44)

Bengals’ Adam Jones vs. Buccaneers’ opponent’s starting field position

Adam Jones – Yes, that Adam Jones – could be the Bengals best player in 2014. “Pacman” is tearing up the turf for Cincinnati’s special teams, averaging 31.8 yards per kickoff (best in the NFL) and 13.1 yards per punt (fourth in the NFL).

Those efforts have helped given the Bengals an average starting field position at the 29.33 yard line – eighth best in the league. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, Cincy has only been outdone in starting field position twice this season and started drives at an average of the 30-yard line against Houston last week.

Tampa Bay is playing much better, especially on defense. But the Bucs aren’t doing themselves any favors by allowing foes to start their drives at an average of the 30.5-yard line – 29th overall in the NFL. They punted six times versus the Bears last week and currently rank last in punting average at 39.9 yards per punt.


New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3, 57.5)

Patriots’ dusty run defense vs. Packers’ RB Eddie Lacy

The Patriots defense is giving up a middle-of-the-road 108.2 yards per game, but hasn’t truly been tested by opposing rushers. With New England’s offense doing the heavy lifting, foes are forced to abandon the run while trying to play catch-up. The Pats have faced just 19.3 rushing attempts per game over their last three contests.

New England allows 4.2 yards per carry, which is another stat that sits in the middle of the pile. However, we’ve seen the Patriots gets blown up by a certain type of runner this season. Smash-mouth, downhill backs have done the most damage with bulldozers like Jets RB Chris Ivory and Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles breaking off big gains against New England.

Lacy enters this massive Sunday showdown off his best performance of the season. The burly back rumbled for 125 yards and a score against the Vikings last weekend. Lacy has been a workhorse in this offense during the Packers resurgence. According to Mass Live, Lacy had just 73 total yards in the Packers’ first four games – going 2-2. Since then, he’s rushed for 511 yards on 101 runs – an average of 5.1 yards per carry. A fun stat: The Cheeseheads are 14-3-1 SU when Lacy rushes for 100 or more yards.


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5, 49.5)

Broncos’ kicking conundrum vs. Chiefs’ red-zone defense

When spreads are this close, it usually comes down to a field goal – made or missed. And for the Broncos, they’ve already seen their share of misses. Denver – which has watched its kickers go 9 for 13 – brings in a new leg Sunday night, replacing Brandon McManus with former Chief/Buccaneer Connor Barth this week.

Barth hasn’t kicked in an NFL game in two years after rupturing his Achilles in his kicking foot playing basketball. On top of that, the Broncos want him to take kickoffs as well – something he hasn’t done since 2010. It’s going to be a cold and windy night in Arrowhead – where Barth started his career – and that winter weather can ice a kicker quicker than a last-second timeout.

Kansas City will try to force Denver to turn to its untested kicker more often than not Sunday night. The Chiefs are stingy inside the 20-yard line, ranked second in the league in defensive red-zone TD percentage (43.75%). They’ve trimmed that number to 30 percent in the last three contests. Kansas City is also among the best stop units to getting opponents off the field, limiting teams to a 36.88 success rate on third down.