The bum's nfl november's best bets,trends, stats, news etc !

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Cowboys (6-3) vs Jaguars (1-8) (London)—Romo made trip across pond, figures to play after Weeden was 18-33/174 in dismal home loss to Arizona last week (Bryant’s first catch came with 1:55 left). Jaguars haven’t led at halftime since Week 1; in last five games, they’ve been outscored 48-26 in first half. Jags are 2-6-1 vs spread this season, 1-3-1 as road underdogs, 5-7-1 in 1.5 years under Bradley. Dallas is 11-29-1 as a favorite under Garrett, 4-7-1 on road; last week was first time this year Murray ran for less than 100 yards. Cowboys lost last two games after 6-1 start; they’re 2-3 overall vs Jaguars, with four of five games played in Dallas. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-5 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 5-7. Four of last five Jax games stayed under.

Dolphins (5-3) @ Lions (6-2)—Detroit won last three games before its bye, last two by one point each; they were down 21-0 last game, 23-10 with 4:00 left in game before that, so they’re finding ways to win and now they expect back Johnson/Bush back for this game, with Bush facing old team. Miami also won its last three games, thrashing San Diego 27-0 last week; they’ve won last three road games, all by 13+ points and won five of last six games with Lions, but last visit to Motor City was in ’06. Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games as a road underdog. Detroit is 2-2 as a home favorite in ’14. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-4 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 3-5. Last seven Lion games, last three Miami games stayed under total.

Chiefs (5-3) @ Bills (5-3)—Chiefs are 3-0 since their bye, scoring 27 ppg; they’ve covered last seven games, are 2-2 SU on road, losing to Broncos/49ers. KC lost five of last seven games vs Buffalo, but won fluky 23-13 game (-4) here LY; they were outgained 470-210, but were +3 in turnovers, with two of three miscues run back for Chief TDs. Not many NFL teams run for 241 yards and lose, but Bills did that day. Bills won three of last four games before their bye, with two wins in last minute; they’re 2-2 SU at home, 3-1 with Orton the starting QB. Buffalo has 17 sacks in its last four games, Chiefs have 15. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread; AFC East underdogs are 6-4. Last four Chief games, six of eight Buffalo tilts stayed under.

49ers (4-4) @ Saints (4-4)—49ers lost last two games, scoring three TD’s on 23 drives; their 3.8 points/red zone drive is worst in NFL (eight empty trips out of 25, only 11 TDs). Niners are 2-2 on road, with three of those games (2-1) in dome; they’re 4-0 when scoring 22+ points, 0-4 when scoring less. NO had extra time to prep after Thursday win in Carolina; they’re 3-0 at home, winning by 11-6-21 points while scoring 33.7 ppg (12 TD’s/29 drives). Saints won seven of last nine series games, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points; Niners lost five of last six series games here, plus they also lost Super Bowl to the Ravens on this field- they’re 6-4-1 as road underdogs under Harbaugh, 0-1 this year. Six of eight 49er games stayed under total.

Titans (2-6) @ Ravens (5-4)—First road start for rookie QB Mettenberger (27-41/290 in first start, 30-16 home loss to Houston); Titans are 2-2 as road underdogs, losing by 26-24-2 points. Since ’06, they’re 26-19 as road dogs. Ravens gave up 70 points in losing last two games to AFC North rivals; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year, winning last three at home by 20-28-22 points. Baltimore only has one division game left; they’re 3-1 vs spread outside division. Last 10+ years, Ravens are 28-13-1 as non-divisional home favorite (12-14-1 in division). Road team won four of last six series games, with Titans winning last two visits here, but last one was in ’08. Over is 4-1 in last five Tennessee games, 5-2 in last seven Baltimore games.

Steelers (6-3) @ Jets (1-8)—Big Ben is first-ever QB to throw 12 TD passes in two-game span, but Steelers are 2-2 away from home, scoring 17 or less in three of four games, only one of which (26-6 loss in Baltimore) was on carpet. Since ’09, Pitt is 8-11-1 vs spread on artificial turf. Steelers are 19-4 overall vs Jets, winning last three by 5-17-13 points. Gang Green lost last eight games; they’re lost at QB, using Matt Simms for while last week. Jets forced only three turnovers all year, none in last four games (-8). Last six series games played here, average total was 22.6. Last three Steeler games, three of last four Jet games went over the total. Weird things happen in NFL, but if you bet Jets in this game, you’re a masochist.

Falcons (2-6) @ Buccaneers (1-7)—Atlanta is 9-3 in last 12 series games, last of which was 56-14 (-6.5) pounding in Week 3 Thursday tilt, last game Glennon didn’t start for Bucs. Falcons had punt return for TD, a defensive score and three TD drives of less than 40 yards in game that was 35-nil at half- they’re 3-2 in last five visits here, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points. Last week was first time Bucs led at half; they’ve been blanked in four of eight first halves, are 0-4 at home, scoring 17 or less points in all four games. Last three Atlanta games stayed under total; they’re 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine NFC South road games. Bucs been more competitive since their bye, losing in OT to Vikings, 22-17 in Cleveland last week.

Broncos (6-2) @ Raiders (0-8)—Denver is 6-1 vs spread in game following a loss with Manning at QB; they got riddled in Foxboro last week, but have beaten Raiders five times in row, all by 13+ points. Denver won last three visits here by 14-13-20 points. Broncos are 12-6 as road favorites under Fox, 1-1 this year; in 27 red zone drives, they have 22 TDs, 4 FGs, one empty trip, by far best mark in NFL. Oakland hasn’t won but none of last four losses (four games Sparano coached) were by more than 11 points; Raiders are 6-12-1 in last 19 games as home underdogs, 1-2 this year. Second half last week was only second half Oakland outscored foe this year. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-9 against spread this season. Last five Denver games went over.

Rams (3-5) @ Cardinals (7-1)—Third road game in row for St Louis, traditional soft spot for NFL teams; Rams are just 7-23 on 3rd down last two games- their passing game misses Quick, their best WR. Fisher’s teams compete; Rams are 3-1 as road dogs this year, 12-8 in 2.5 years under Fisher. Last time Arizona was 7-1 was 40 years ago when Don Coryell was coaching the St Louis Cardinals; they’ve won/covered last four games, are 1-1 as home favorites this year, winning all four home games by 11-9-10-4 points- they’re 4-2-1 as home favorites under Arians, and have +10 turnover ratio. Rams won three of last four series games, splitting last four played here, with losses by 6-20 points; Last three Arizona games stayed under total.

Giants (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-3)—Nothing’s been easy for Seattle; they led winless Oakland 24-3 at half last week, but allowed punt block for TD and wound up hanging on for 30-24 win. Seahawks are 0-4 vs spread in last four games, winning last two by 4-6 points; they hammered Giants 23-0 in Swamp LY, picking off five passes, holding Giants to 181 yards, but their defense hasn’t been as dominant this year. Giants are 1-3 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 21-27-10 points, with win at Washington. Giants won last visit here 41-7 in ’10, their one win in last five trips to Seattle. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 7-2 vs spread; NFC East road underdogs are 3-4. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Giant games, 3-1 in last four Seattle tilts.

Bears (3-5) @ Packers (5-3)—Green Bay won/covered its last five post-bye games. Rodgers tweaked his hamstring in game before bye; no way of knowing if he is 100%. Green Bay is 5-0 on grass, 0-3 on turf, 2-1 as home favorites- they’re 25-15 in last 40 games as HF, with home wins this year by 7-32-21 points. Chicago lost four of last five games before its bye; they’re 0-5 when allowing 23+ points, 3-0 when allowing 20 or less. Bears are 3-6 as road underdogs under Trestman, 2-2 this year. Packers won eight of last nine series games, winning five of last six here (Rodgers was KO’d early in Bears’ win here LY), with three of five wins by 13+ points. Favorites are 5-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Last five Packer games and four of last six Chicago games went over the total.

Panthers (3-5-1) @ Eagles (6-2)-- Sanchez gets first start at QB for Philly after Foles broke collarbone last week; he was 33-29 in four years as starter for Jets. Since 2010, Eagles are 11-19 as home favorites, 5-7 under Kelly, 2-2 this year, winning home games by 17-3-6-27 points. Philly turned ball over 16 times in last five games (-9) prompting rumors Eagle brass was souring on Foles even before he got hurt. Carolina is 1-5-1 in last seven games after its 2-0 start; they’ve lost last three games by 21-4-18 points, are 2-2 as road dog, losing away games by 28-21 points, with win at Tampa, tie in Cincinnati. Panthers have one TD, four turnovers in last two games. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4; NFC road underdogs are 4-5. Last three Carolina road games went over total.

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NFL

Sunday, November 9

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Sunday Night Football: Bears at Packers
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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 53)

Perhaps no team needed a bye week more than the Chicago Bears, who will attempt to bounce back from a pair of lopsided defeats and remain in contention in the NFC North race when they visit the archrival Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. Chicago has dropped four of five, including a 51-23 beating at New England prior to its bye, to fall into the division cellar. The Bears' spiral started with a 38-17 home loss to Green Bay on Sept. 28, their seventh loss in the past eight meetings against the Packers.

Green Bay also comes in off a bye, which followed a 44-23 drubbing at New Orleans that brought an end to an impressive four-game winning streak during which it averaged a shade over 36 points. Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-high 418 yards despite suffering a second-half hamstring injury against the Saints, but he practiced fully Wednesday and expects another high-scoring duel with Chicago. "Both teams executed pretty well last time with no punts," Rodgers said. "They just turned the ball over and we didn't."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening at Green Bay -7.5, the line has shifted to -7. The opening total of 52 has jumped one point to 53.

INJURY REPORT: Bears - LB Lance Briggs (Prob-Ribs), TE Martellus Bennett (Ques-Ribs), CB Kyle Fuller (Ques-Hip) Packers - G Josh Sitton (Ques-Toe), CB Sam Shields (Ques-Knee), G T.J. Lang (Ques-Ankle).

POWER RANKINGS: Bears (+1) + Packers (-3.75) + home field (-3) = Packers (-7.75)

WEATHER REPORT: Scattered flurries will start in the early morning before changing to a snow/rain mix in the afternoon. Temperature at game time is expected to be 35°F.

ABOUT THE BEARS (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Chicago fell behind by 14 points at halftime in a 27-14 loss to Miami on Oct. 19 before getting pulverized by the Patriots - a game in which it trailed 38-7 at the break. Quarterback Jay Cutler has thrown six interceptions and lost three fumbles over the past five games, including a pair of second-half picks that allowed Green Bay to break the game open in Week 4. Running back Matt Forte has accounted for 1,052 yards from scrimmage (562 rushing, 490 receiving) and six touchdowns, but wideouts Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have combined for 72 catches after amassing 189 last season. The Bears expect linebacker Lance Briggs to return from a three-game absence to help a defense that has been shredded for an average of 32 points during the 1-4 skid.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 7-1 O/U): Rodgers had a streak of 212 passes without an interception halted with a pair against New Orleans - both coming after he hurt his hamstring at the end of a scramble. He had 13 touchdowns in the four-game winning streak, including four in a 302-yard effort against Chicago in the first meeting. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson each had a pair of scoring passes against the Bears and have combined for 90 catches and 15 touchdowns, but the running game has been spotty with second-year back Eddie Lacy limited to 63 yards or fewer in seven of the eight games. Green Bay could be without both starting guards, but three defensive starters could return the lineup to fortify a unit that was singed for 496 yards and 33 first downs by the Bears.

TRENDS:

*Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 home games.
*Bears are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.
*Over is 19-7 in Bears last 26 road games.
*Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 65 percent of action is backing Green Bay.

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NFL

Sunday, November 9


Cold and wind in forecast at Ralph Wilson Stadium

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will have to compete with some temperatures and not just one another at Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with a small 21 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field upwards of 10 mph during gametime.

The Bills are presently 1-point home dogs and the total is 42.


Strong chance of rain as Seahawks host Giants

It could by typical Seattle weather Sunday afternoon as the Seahawks host the New York Giants at CenturyLink Field.

Forecasts are calling for an 83 percent chance of rain prior and during gametime Sunday. Temperatures will be in the low-50s and there will be a small 3 mph wind blowing toward the south endzone.

The Seahawks are currently 8.5-point home faves and oddsmakers have the total at 44.5.


Falcons struggling ATS, but solid on the Under

The Atlanta Falcons, losers of five in a row, have not been a solid spread play recently (1-4 ATS in their last five), but they have been a boon for bettors banking on low totals.

The Under is 4-0 in the Falcons' last four games. They'll collide with divisional rival Tampa Bay in the Sunshine State Sunday.

The Bucs are presently 2.5-point home faves. Oddsmakers have the total sitting at 47.


Under on fire in recent Chiefs matchups

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone on a tear for Under bettors as of late, posting a perfect 0-4 O/U record in their last four contests.

Alex Smith's squad travels to Western New York for a date with the Buffalo Bills Sunday.

Buffalo is currently listed as 1-point home faves with a total of 42.


Dolphins clicking, and covering as a result

The Miami Dolphins have started clicking at precisely the right time, and as a result, have been covering the spread with ease.

The Dolphins sit tied with Buffalo for second place in the AFC East with a 5-3 record SU, and have won three in a row heading into their meeting with the Detroit Lions in the Motor City Sunday.

Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Oddsmakers have the 'Fins as +2.5 road dogs with a total of 43.5 for the affair.


High totals the norm in Saints contests

After a slow start to the season, the New Orleans Saints appear to be looking like themselves again, winning three out of their last four matchups and sit atop of the weak NFC South with a 4-4 SU record.

Due to the Saints finding their groove, they've been putting up a ton of points on the board. The Over has gone 4-1 in New Orleans' last five games.

Drew Brees' club host San Franciso in the Bayou State Sunday. The Niners are presently listed as +5 dogs with an Over/Under of 49.


Jets causing headaches for their spread backers

The New York Jets have had a nightmare start to the regular campaign and are sitting in the basement of the AFC East as Week 10 approaches.

As a result, the Gang Green have been hurting the pockets of their backers as well. The Jets are just 1-7-1 against the spread in their past nine matchups.

New York faces off agains Ben Roethlisberger and the red-hot Pittsburgh Steelers at MetLife Stadium Sunday. Oddsmakers have the black and gold listed as 3.5-point road favorites with a total of 47.

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NFL roundup: Chiefs activate LB May

The Kansas City Chiefs activated linebacker Joe Mays from injured reserve Saturday and waived linebacker Jerry Franklin.

Mays has played 61 NFL games in six seasons with the Houston Texans (2013), Denver Broncos (2010-12) and Philadelphia Eagles (2008-09). He joined the Chiefs as a free agent in March and was placed on injured reserve Sept. 2 with a designation to return. His career numbers include 194 tackles (141 solo), 18 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, six pass breakups and one forced fumble.

Franklin has played 20 NFL games in three seasons with the Chiefs (2014) and Chicago Bears (2012-13). He has served primarily on special teams, recording 11 tackles.

---New York Giants starting running back Rashad Jennings did not make the team's trip to Seattle for Sunday's game against the Seahawks and was ruled out.

Jennings has been out for a month with a knee injury. Rookie Andre Williams will continue to fill in for Jennings.

---The Seahawks activated cornerback Jeremy Lane from the injured reserve/designated for return list, making him eligible to play against the Giants.

Lane was placed on injured reserve with the designation to return following the season opener against Green Bay when he sustained a groin injury. This was the first week he was eligible to return.

To make room for Lane on the roster, center Stephen Schilling (knee) was placed on injured reserve.

---The Green Bay Packers downgraded safety Morgan Burnett from probable to questionable for Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears.

Though the Packers made the announcement, they did not say if or when Burnett aggravated his calf injury. After starting the first seven games of the season, Burnett missed the Packers' last game against the New Orleans Saints. Green Bay is coming off a bye.

The Packers also signed offensive tackle Jamon Meredith to the active roster and placed wide receiver Kevin Dorsey on injured reserve.

---The Baltimore Ravens signed cornerback Rashaan Melvin off the Miami Dolphins' practice squad.

To make room for Melvin on the roster, the Ravens placed cornerback Jimmy Smith on injured reserve. Smith had season-ending foot surgery.

---Former New York Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards told radio station WPEN-FM this week that the team "babied" quarterback Mark Sanchez, who is making his first start with the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night against the Carolina Panthers.

After leading the Jets to consecutive AFC championship games in 2009 and '10, Sanchez fell out of favor with the Jets and he signed with the Eagles in March.

Edwards, a teammate of Sanchez during the Jets' playoff runs, said the team protected the quarterback by emphasizing a run-heavy offense.

"You have to remember Mark was 20 years old when he was drafted. He was a kid," Edwards said. "They babied him and never really allowed him to man-up in the NFL, which is a league full of men."

---Houston Texans linebackers coach Mike Vrabel wrote on Twitter that his three Super Bowl rings were stolen from his home. Vrabel won the rings as a linebacker for the New England Patriots.

"To all the Houston area pawn shops: 3 super bowl rings are headed your way. Courtesy of the (expletives) who smashed our back door in," Vrabel tweeted.

Vrabel helped the Patriots win Super Bowls during the 2001-02, 2003-04 and 2004-05 seasons.

---The San Francisco 49ers promoted linebacker Chase Thomas from the practice squad to the active roster.

Thomas originally signed with the New Orleans Saints as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2013 out of Stanford.

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Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 10 line moves

Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +7.5, Move: +7

The National Football League hits the United Kingdom for the third time this season as the Cowboys and the Jaguars square off at Wembley Stadium. The Cowboys head into this one in a bit of a rut having dropped two straight – both at home – and are holding out hope that Tony Romo will be able to play.

"We waited as long as we could to post this line because there is a significant dropoff between Tony Romo and Brandon Weeden," Lester points out. "Once Sunday rolls around and everyone knows that Romo is playing, I expect we’ll see a spike in the spread. I think the numbers are exactly where they need to be."

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets - Open: +5.5, Move: +3.5

The dichotomy in this matchup couldn't be more intriguing. The Jets are in full-on crisis mode as the team is the worst bet in the league (1-7-1 ATS) and speculation continues to arise about the job security of Rex Ryan and John Idzik. Meanwhile, the Steelers have won three straight SU and ATS and Ben Roethlisberger has lit up box scores. Of course, this is prime fodder for a sharp vs. public divide.

"Pittsburgh is off two-straight blowout wins and the Jets are in offensive disarray," Lester says. "This has the stench of trap all over it. Sharps are on the home team, squares are backing the Steelers. The public should push this back up a bit before kickoff."

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Open: +1, Move: +3

A pair of teams who have struggled at the betting window this season as the Bucs host the Falcons. Both are 3-5 ATS, but the two of them are still alive in hunt in the NFC South so there is something to play for here. Atlanta's woes away from home (read: outdoors) are well documented as they are 0-4 straight up and against the spread.

"Early money was on Tampa Bay and then we’ve basically taken nothing but Atlanta bets since," explains Lester. "Folks aren’t ready to accept that the Falcons are a bad team. If it moved above the key number, I’d take a shot on the Bucs."

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -9, Move: -8.5

As crazy as it sounds, the Seahawks have dropped four-straight against the spread including a pair at CenturyLink Field (-10 vs. Dallas, -13.5 vs. Oakland). That will be the site Sunday as they host the Giants. The G-Men are coming in riding a three-game SU and ATS losing streak, including a 40-24 loss to the Indianapolis Colts off a bye week.

"We’ve just started to see a little bit a smart money on the Giants," Lester tells Covers. "They certainly face an uphill situation considering the turnaround and travel elements, but Seattle hasn’t exactly 'righted the ship', so to speak. Our action has been pretty two-sided so we’re happy with the line we set."

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NFL

Sunday, November 9


Bills move to 1-point faves early Sunday

The Buffalo Bills opened as 2-point home underdogs with the Kansas City Chiefs in town Sunday, but that line is on the move with kickoff approaching.

At online sportsbook Pinnacle Sports, the spread has shifted to Bills -1 earlier Sunday morning. Most offshore books are offering this game at Bills +1 or a Pick, while most Vegas outlets are offering Bills +1 or +1.5.

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NFL

Monday, November 10

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Monday Night Football: Panthers at Eagles
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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 48.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles begin life without quarterback Nick Foles when they host the scuffling Carolina Panthers on Monday night. Foles was injured late in the first quarter of last week's 31-21 win at Houston, giving the Eagles three quarters to acclimate Mark Sanchez to the starting role. Sanchez was solid against the Texans, and the team feels good about his chances for success against a Panthers team that has given up 30.7 points over its last seven games.

"Mark can play, man," said Philadelphia wideout Jeremy Maclin, the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week. "There's no question about it. He's also surrounded by a lot more talent than what he had in New York, so the sky's the limit." The Panthers, meanwhile, have only one win since Sept. 14 but should benefit from the return of two key offensive linemen as Cam Newton looks to regain his consistency. “A lot of it is not just about him,” Carolina coach Ron Rivera said. “We can put it all on the quarterback and say it’s all about the quarterback, but this is a team game.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 6-point home faves, but that has moved to -7. The total opened 48 and has gone up a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Panthers - G Amini Silatolu (Questionable, calf), G Trai Turner (Questionable, knee), S Thomas DeCoud (Questionable, hamstring), WR Philly Brown (Probable, concussion). Eagles - S Nate Allen (Probable, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (+2.5) + Eagles (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -9.0

WEATHER FORECAST: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing toward the north endzone at 3 mph.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-5-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U ): Left tackle Byron Bell and left guard Amini Silatolu are slated to return for Carolina, which ranks 20th in the league in passing yards and 26th in rushing yards. The Panthers have scored a total of 36 points in their last three games with Newton throwing for just 176 yards per contest during that stretch. On the bright side, Luke Kuechly continues to lead the league in tackles with 97 and has an NFL-high 417 tackles since entering the league in 2012.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U): After Foles broke his collarbone, Sanchez threw two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions last week in his first regular-season action since December 2012. The focus of the offense will continue to be Maclin, who has 18 catches for 345 yards and four touchdowns in his last two games, and LeSean McCoy, whose four most productive games of the season have come in his last four outings. Philadelphia's biggest concern heading into Monday night's contest is likely how to replace linebacker DeMeco Ryans, who tore his Achilles tendon last weekend and will be replaced by a trio of relative unknowns in the middle of the Eagles' 3-4 scheme.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 11-2 in Panthers last 13 vs. NFC.
* Over is 7-1-1 in Eagles last nine Monday games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 60 percent of bets are backing the Eagles.

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NFL

Monday, November 10


Eagles now 7.5-point faves against Carolina

The line continues to move towards the Philadelphia Eagles for their Monday night showdown with the Carolina Panthers.

The Eagles have moved to 7.5-point home favorites, after opening at -6.5 earlier in the week. After initially getting bet down to -5.5, the line has steadily moved in Philadelphia's favor to the current number.

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MNF - Panthers at Eagles

November 10, 2014

The Week 10 card closes out in Philadelphia tonight as the Eagles usher out the Mark Sanchez era at quarterback against a struggling Panthers squad at Lincoln Financial Field.

The Eagles (6-2) are in a two-horse race inside the NFC East alongside the Cowboys, who improved to 7-3 after blowing out the Jaguars in London. Philadelphia managed to get past Houston last Sunday, 31-21 as 1 ½-point road favorites, but suffered a huge loss as quarterback Nick Foles broke his left collarbone in the first quarter. Sanchez, who went through many ups and downs with the Jets in his career, replaced Foles and threw for 202 yards and two touchdowns. However, the former USC standout also was intercepted twice, marking 71 picks thrown by Sanchez in his four-plus year career.

The Panthers (3-5-1) began the season with plenty of hope following an NFC South crown last season as Carolina beat Tampa Bay and Detroit. But, Ron Rivera’s team has gone backwards in the past seven games by winning just once, rallying past the Bears at home in Week 5. Carolina had several extra days to prepare for tonight’s contest after losing at home to New Orleans last Thursday, 28-10 as three-point underdogs.

In that defeat, the Panthers were limited to 231 yards of offense, while Cam Newton threw for just 151 yards and was intercepted once. Newton has been picked off in five straight games, while the former top pick from Auburn has completed at least 57% of his passes just once in the past six contests. The Panthers are coming off consecutive games scoring 10 points or less, a dubious accomplishment this franchise hasn’t seen since the 2010 season in which Carolina finished 2-14.

In Chip Kelly’s first season as head coach of the Eagles, Philadelphia didn’t develop a home-field advantage until later in 2013. The Eagles lost their first four games at Lincoln Financial Field, then won their final four contests of the regular season before bowing out to the Saints in the Wild Card round. Philadelphia has kept up last season’s momentum at the Linc by beginning this season at 4-0, which includes wins over the Jaguars, Redskins, Rams, and Giants, but those four teams are a combined 10-21.

The only road victory for the Panthers this season didn’t come with Newton under center. Instead, Derek Anderson filled in for the Heisman Trophy winner in the season opener at Tampa Bay, as the Panthers ripped the Buccaneers, 20-14 as 5 ½-point underdogs. Since that win, the Panthers have stumbled to an 0-2-1 record on the highway, which includes blowout losses at Green Bay and Baltimore. Newton’s best road performance came in a wild 37-37 tie at Cincinnati, as the Carolina quarterback threw for 284 yards and rushed for 107 more in a game that went back and forth until no winner was determined.

The last time these teams met up also came on a Monday night back in 2012 at Lincoln Financial Field. The Panthers held off the Eagles as three-point favorites, 30-22, as Newton shined under the primetime lights by throwing two touchdown passes and running in two more scores. Who started that game for the Eagles at quarterback? It was Foles’ rookie year, as the ex-Arizona star made his fifth career start, filling in for the injured Michael Vick.

Philadelphia is making its second Monday night appearance this season, as the Eagles rallied past the Colts in Week 2 for a road underdog win. This is the first Monday night contest at Lincoln Financial Field since Carolina’s victory in November 2012. Since 2011, the Panthers have appeared in Monday action just twice, with the most recent showing coming in a crazy finish against the Patriots last season in a 24-20 home victory, giving Newton a 2-0 record on Mondays in his short career.

Carolina has profited as a road underdog since 2012, posting a 9-3 ATS record, which includes the covers at Tampa Bay and Cincinnati this season. The Eagles have covered six of their past eight regular season contests at home, while scoring at least 27 points in all four games at Lincoln Financial Field. The ‘over’ is up to 3-1 in Eagles’ home games this season, while Carolina is riding a three-game ‘over’ streak on the highway.

Following a 4-1 ATS run by the underdogs to begin the season under the Monday night lights, the favorites have rebounded with a 4-1 SU/ATS stretch the past five weeks, with the Redskins being the lone underdog to win (and cover) at Dallas. The ‘over’ is 7-3 in Monday action this season, while going 23-7 to the ‘over’ in primetime action following Green Bay’s blowout of Chicago last night.

The Eagles are currently listed as seven-point home favorites across the board, while the total is set at 48 ½ at a majority of books. The temperatures are expected to be in the low 50’s with no chance of rain. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

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Betting Recap - Week 10

November 9, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL WEEK 10 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-4
Against the Spread 7-4
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 5-6
Against the Spread 5-6
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-6

NFL OVERALL RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 98-48-1
Against the Spread 73-68-4
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 84-60-1
Against the Spread 70-72-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 76-66-3

Biggest Favorite to Cash

Denver opened up as 11 ½-point road favorites, as that line closed at 12 ½ at Oakland. The Broncos crushed the Raiders, 41-17 at the Coliseum to bounce back from last week's loss at New England. The other double-digit favorite to cover was Baltimore (-10), who overcame an early 7-0 deficit in a 21-7 victory over Tennessee.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

San Francisco (+5 ½) built a 14-0 lead at New Orleans, but the Saints rallied back to take a 24-21 lead late in the fourth quarter. The 49ers kicked a late field goal to force overtime, then booted another field goal to win it, 27-24. The Niners cash at +210 on money-line (Bet $100 to win $210).

Another underdog to cash was the Jets (+4), who cruised past the Steelers, 20-13 to snap an eight-game losing streak.

Home/Away

Home teams went 5-6 SU and 5-6 ATS in Week 9. Road teams to win include the Browns, Cowboys, Bills, 49ers, Falcons, and Broncos.

Not so Sharp

Buffalo opened as a short underdog against Kansas City, but closed as 1 ½-point favorites. The Bills built a 13-3 lead through three quarters, but the Chiefs scored two late touchdowns to beat Buffalo, 17-13 to cover for the seventh time in eight games.

Cruising Cardinals

Arizona continues to find ways to win at home, rallying past St. Louis as seven-point favorites, 31-14. Carson Palmer left the game with an apparent knee injury, but the Cardinals converting on a 48-yard touchdown pass to take a 17-14 advantage in the fourth quarter. Arizona backers were helped by a pair of defensive touchdowns in the final five minutes as the Cards improved to 8-1 on the season.

Public comes through late

All three 4:00 kickoffs cashed the Favorite-Over combination for the first time this season. The Broncos, Cardinals, and Seahawks all covered easily, while big fourth quarters in Arizona and Seattle helped hit the 'over.' Seattle snapped a four-game ATS skid in a 38-17 blowout of the Giants, as the Seahawks rushed for a season-high 350 yards in a steady rain.

Hot ant Not

-- The Cardinals are 5-0 SU/ATS in their last five games, while covering four straight at home .

-- Chiefs started the season at 0-2, but have won six of their past seven games. Kansas City is 7-1 ATS since failing to cover in the opener against Tennessee

-- The Giants are in a major tail-spin, dropping four straight games. New York hasn't covered in this stretch, losing all four times by double-digits.

Losers keep losing

The Jets found a way to get in the win column, but the Jaguars, Buccaneers, and Raiders all lost and failed to cover. Jacksonville went to London to lose its ninth game of the season, falling to the Cowboys, 31-17 as 7 ½-point underdogs. Tampa Bay was destroyed at Atlanta in Week 3 and had an opportunity at revenge at home. The Bucs led, 17-16 in the second half, but the Falcons ran off 11 points to pull off the sweep and cover as three-point road favorites.

Totals

On Sunday afternoon, the 'over' went 5-5, while three contests saw at least 50 points scored. In the late games, the ‘over’ went a perfect 3-0. Including Thursday’s result, the ‘over/under’ has gone 5-6 in Week 10.

Notable total streaks include:

The Browns have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last five games.

Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 in its last five matchups.

Denver is on a 6-0 run to the ‘over.’

Miami is on a 4-0 run to the ‘under.’

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Cards' QBs, Rodgers' 6 TDs get noticed

November 10, 2014

Exactly how badly Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer's left knee was damaged - and how long he'll be replaced by backup Drew Stanton - might not be known until Monday or Tuesday.

Cardinals coach Bruce Arians was already in spin mode on Sunday, though.

''Everyone has confidence in Drew,'' Arians said. ''Nothing drops off.''

Tough to tell whether he was trying to persuade himself or his players or future opponents.

Whatever the case, it was not ideal for Arizona to have Palmer driven away on a cart during what would become a 31-14 victory over the St. Louis Rams.

The Cardinals improved to an NFL-best 8-1 - the first time they've had that record since 1948, when the franchise was based in Chicago - heading into next week's showdown against Detroit, which is 7-2.

Arizona is unbeaten this season in games started by Palmer, who got a three-year contract extension just a couple of days ago but now has hurt the same knee in which he tore ligaments in a 2006 playoff game.

And even if Stanton did lead Arizona to a couple of victories as a starter this season when Palmer had a shoulder problem, there is little doubt which quarterback would be better to have on the field when December or January rolls around.

The good news for Arians and the Cardinals is that they can lean on their defense, if need be.

After Palmer left against St. Louis, Patrick Peterson had two interceptions - returning the second 30 yards for a touchdown - and another defensive back, Antonio Cromartie, picked up a fumble and carried the ball 14 yards for another defensive TD.

In case you missed it, here are the other top topics after the NFL season's 10th Sunday:

A HALF-DOZEN IN A HALF: QBs are tying or breaking record after record this season, and the latest installment was Aaron Rodgers' six touchdown passes in the first half of Green Bay's 55-14 win against Chicago at night. Tough to decide which was harder to fathom: that Rodgers accumulated a half-dozen TD tosses in the span of two quarters or that he wasn't the first to do it in an NFL game (Oakland's Daryle Lamonica, 1969). The flip side, of course, is that coach Marc Trestman's Bears are a disaster, getting outscored 87-7 in the first halves of their past three games combined.

PEYTON WON'T GO: Apparently, Peyton Manning was not quite ready to leave Denver's 41-17 victory at Oakland until he was good and ready to leave. A video clip from the CBS broadcast of the game made the rounds on Twitter, showing Manning's backup, Brock Osweiler, preparing to enter the lopsided game - until he turned to see Manning leaving the sideline to go back in. Eventually, though, Manning decided enough was enough after his ninth career game with at least five touchdown passes, and Osweiler mopped up by throwing five passes.

PUSH OR FLOP?: The Saints lost to the 49ers 27-24 in overtime - ending a 20-game home winning streak for New Orleans coach Sean Payton, who missed a year because of the bounty case - after an apparent touchdown toss from Drew Brees to Jimmy Graham on the last play of regulation was wiped out by a call of offensive pass interference on the tight end. Graham made contact with defensive back Perrish Cox, who might have added a bit of, um, embellishment to his fall to the turf. ''Definitely not a push-off. I'm running down the field and I'm telling myself not to push off. `Whatever you do, don't push off. Just go up and get it,''' Graham said. ''It's interesting, you know, how guys grab me everywhere on the field and I put literally two fingers on somebody and you make that kind of call.''

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Vick becomes first QB to 6K rushing yards

November 9, 2014

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) - Michael Vick is still making plays with his legs, running up his record-setting rushing total with each knee-buckling scamper.

He became the first quarterback in NFL history to reach 6,000 yards rushing, getting the mark in the third quarter of the New York Jets' 20-13 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.

''Really, it makes me feel old because that's years of hard work,'' the 34-year-old Vick said, smiling. ''It's probably something, well I know it's something that hasn't been done in the league up into this point. It's a major milestone.''

Vick entered the game with 5,967 yards rushing and hit the new mark with an 18-yard scramble that put the Jets in field goal range. He finished with 39 yards on eight carries, giving him 6,006 for his career.

He set the NFL record in 2011 while with Philadelphia, surpassing Randall Cunningham's 4,928 yards rushing.

''Reaching those types of milestones and continuing to play the game at a high level at my age makes me appreciate the game of football,'' Vick said. ''I love this game so much that I would do anything to win with my teammates. That's what means a lot to me. So, those 6,000 yards came through a lot of guys blocking for me, a lot of guys putting their bodies out on the line for me, and a lot of sacrifices so it just wasn't me.

''I give a lot of credit to my teammates that I have played with, from Atlanta to Philly to New York.''

Vick also showed he still has the ability to fake out defenders and make them look silly. Late in the first quarter, he took off down the right sideline and juked Brice McCain with a shake-and-bake move that sent the Steelers cornerback to the turf. Vick ended up with an 18-yard run that put the ball at the Steelers 3. Three plays later, he threw a 5-yard touchdown pass to Jace Amaro that gave the Jets a 17-0 lead.

''It happened so fast that I've got to go back and look at it,'' Vick said with a big grin. ''All I was thinking about was straightening him up and, for some reason, he bit. They're still biting on the old dead-leg fakes. It's all good.''

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NFC West contenders all win Sunday

November 10, 2014

Ah, the wild West. As in the NFC West.

Considered the league's best division heading into the season, the NFC West is not disappointing. The top three contenders from the sector, Arizona, Seattle and San Francisco, all were winners Sunday. The Cardinals also were losers as starting quarterback Carson Palmer injured his left knee.

Palmer was taken to the locker room on a cart after being helped off the field in the fourth quarter with Arizona down by four points. But the Cardinals (8-1) made several big plays down the stretch to beat St. Louis 31-14 and have the NFL's best mark through nine games. They haven't had such a strong record since going 11-1 as the Chicago Cardinals in 1948.

''I think there's a question mark there because nobody knows what his status is,'' backup Drew Stanton said after connecting with rookie John Brown for a touchdown. ''It's difficult because he is the leader of this team. ... We'll just continue to weather the storm, whatever it is.''

Palmer hurt the same knee he injured Jan. 8, 2006, in a playoff game against Pittsburgh, when he tore his ACL and MCL on his first pass of the game.

Palmer was playing some of the best football of his career and, on Friday, signed a three-year contract extension worth a reported $50 million with $20.5 million guaranteed.

Seattle (6-3) ran all over the New York Giants 38-17 thanks to a record-setting performance by Marshawn Lynch. San Francisco (5-4) needed a fourth-and-10 conversion late in the fourth quarter to force overtime in New Orleans before winning 27-24.

The weekend's action began Thursday night when Cleveland (6-3) defeated Cincinnati (5-3-1) 24-3. The Browns now lead the AFC North.

On Monday night, Carolina (3-5-1) is at Philadelphia (6-2).

CARDINALS 31, RAMS 14

Stanton and the Arizona defense rallied the host Cardinals with three touchdowns over a span of 3 minutes, 48 seconds.

Brown's diving grab of Stanton's 48-yard touchdown pass put the Cardinals (8-1) up 17-14 with 7:40 to play.

Patrick Peterson got his first two interceptions of the season, returning the second 30 yards for a touchdown to make it 24-14. Moments later, Austin Davis fumbled and Antonio Cromartie returned it 14 yards for a score as host Arizona outscored the Rams 21-0 in the fourth quarter.

St. Louis (3-6) was shut out in the second half.

49ERS 27, SAINTS 24

At New Orleans, Colin Kaepernick completed a 51-yard pass on fourth down to Michael Crabtree to sustain a tying drive. Ahmad Brooks sacked and stripped Drew Brees in overtime, and Phil Dawson kicked a 35-yard field goal to win it.

''God smiled down on me today,'' Brooks said. ''I was rushing and turning the corner thinking, `Dang, is he going to throw the ball yet?' But he didn't, and I was able to make the play.''

It marked the first home loss for the Saints (4-5) in more than a season. The Saints had won their past 11 at home overall, and the past 20 at home including the playoffs when coached by Sean Payton, who was suspended in 2012.

Brees was intercepted twice, but also passed for three scores, the last to Jimmy Graham to give the Saints a 24-21 lead with 1:52 left in regulation.

Graham also caught a desperation pass in the end zone at the end of regulation, but was called for offensive interference.

SEAHAWKS 38, GIANTS 17

At Seattle, Lynch rushed for a season-high 140 yards and career-best four touchdowns.

Russell Wilson threw two interceptions, the Seahawks committed three total turnovers, and Eli Manning picked apart Seattle's secondary for the first half. It all didn't matter because of Lynch leading Seattle's unstoppable run game.

The 350 total yards rushing by Seattle (6-3) were a franchise record and the most by any NFL team since Kansas City had 352 in 2012.

Lynch carried 21 times, but there was plenty of running to go around. Wilson added 107 yards on 14 carries and a 1-yard TD run with 5:19 left. Most of Wilson's runs were designed as New York (3-6) failed to keep containment.

''You could see the impact Russell's running was having. ... That impact mixing with what Marshawn was doing, it just got to where they couldn't find us,'' Seattle coach Pete Carroll said. ''It was a great job staying with the running game.''

BRONCOS 41, RAIDERS 17

At Oakland, Peyton Manning threw five touchdown passes in less than 17 minutes and the Broncos handed the Raiders their 15th straight loss.

Manning threw a pair of early interceptions that put Denver (7-2) in a hole against the NFL's only winless team. That all changed with a short pass that C.J. Anderson turned into a spectacular 51-yard catch and run. The touchdowns didn't stop until Manning's day was done after three quarters.

Manning added two TD passes to Julius Thomas and two more to Emmanuel Sanders as the Broncos rebounded from last week's loss at New England by beating up on the Raiders (0-9).

Manning went 31 for 44 for 340 yards. He extended his record with at least two touchdown passes in 15 straight games and his streak of 48 games with at least one TD pass is third longest, breaking a tie with Johnny Unitas.

PACKERS 55, BEARS 14

Aaron Rodgers threw six touchdown passes to tie the team record for a game and match the NFL record for a half. Rodgers was 18 of 27 for 315 yards, throwing scoring passes of 73 and 40 yards to Jordy Nelson. The Packers (6-3) led by four touchdowns early in the second quarter of the 190th meeting of the NFL's oldest rivalry.

The 55 points tied a Packers record at Lambeau Field.

Bears quarterback Jay Cutler had another night to forget in Green Bay. He threw two interceptions, giving him 12 in four games in Titletown.

The Bears (3-6) have lost five of their last six. They've given up at least 51 points in two consecutive games.

JETS 20, STEELERS 13

Michael Vick threw two touchdown passes and the Jets forced four turnovers while shutting down Ben Roethlisberger to end an eight-game losing streak.

Roethlisberger threw six touchdown passes in each of his last two games, and was playing in front of a MetLife Stadium crowd nearly half-filled with Terrible Towel-waving Steelers fans. But the Jets (2-8) wouldn't allow Roethlisberger to get into much of a rhythm.

Roethlisberger finished 30 of 43 for 343 yards and connected with Martavis Bryant for an 80-yard TD with 1:16 left. The Steelers (6-4) attempted an onside kick, but Eric Decker recovered to seal it for the Jets - who avoided setting a franchise mark for consecutive losses.

Jaiquawn Jarrett had two interceptions, a sack and a fumble recovery for the Jets, who hadn't won since beating Oakland in Week 1.

Vick, who became the first quarterback in NFL history to run for 6,000 career yards, threw touchdown passes to T.J. Graham and Jace Amaro.

LIONS 20, DOLPHINS 16

At Detroit, Matthew Stafford threw an 11-yard side-armed touchdown pass to Theo Riddick with 29 seconds remaining.

Calvin Johnson had seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown in his first game back from an ankle injury, and the Lions (7-2) won their fourth straight. Their past three victories have been by a combined six points, all with fourth-quarter comebacks.

The Dolphins (5-4) managed one touchdown - after they blocked a Detroit field goal attempt and Dion Jordan returned it deep into Lions territory. Miami's Ryan Tannehill threw for 201 yards, but it was Stafford who made the final big play.

CHIEFS 17, BILLS 13

Anthony Sherman recovered a fumble to set up Alex Smith's 8-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Jamaal Charles also scored on a 39-yard run as the visiting Chiefs (6-3) scored twice in span of 4:31 to overcome a 13-3 deficit. The Chiefs' defense then made a stand at its 15 by forcing Kyle Orton to throw four consecutive incompletions and turn the ball over on downs.

Kansas City improved to 6-1 since opening the season with two losses.

Smith scored two plays after Sherman punched the ball out of the hands of Bills punt returner Leodis McKelvin and then pounced on the loose ball at Buffalo's 26. That wasn't the only Bills miscue in a game Buffalo settled for two field goals on four trips inside the Chiefs 20.

Marcell Dareus had three of six sacks for Buffalo (5-4).

COWBOYS 31, JAGUARS 17

At London, in the third and final game of this year's International Series, Tony Romo returned after missing last week because of a back injury and helped the Cowboys snap a two-game losing streak by throwing three touchdown passes.

Romo started for Dallas (7-3) and completed 20 of 27 passes for 246 yards against the Jaguars (1-9) at Wembley Stadium.

Romo threw a 2-yard touchdown pass to Jason Witten in the first quarter and then hit Dez Bryant for a pair of TDs in the second, the first from 35 yards and the second from 68. Romo finished with a season-high passer rating of 138.8.

DeMarco Murray ended up with 100 yards rushing on 19 carries and 31 yards receiving for Dallas.

RAVENS 21, TITANS 7

At Baltimore, Justin Forsett ran for 112 yards and two touchdowns to back a strong performance by the Baltimore defense.

The Ravens (6-4) bottled up rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger in his first road start. He was sacked five times.

The Titans (2-7) have lost seven of eight. It was 7-7 at halftime, but Tennessee had three three-and-outs in the third quarter while the Ravens took control.

FALCONS 27, BUCCANEERS 17

At Tampa, Matt Ryan threw for 219 yards and one touchdown, helping the Falcons stop a five-game losing streak that left the Bucs with a five-game skid of their own.

The Falcons (3-6) won for the first time since embarrassing their NFC South rivals 56-14 on Sept. 18, a game in which the Bucs (1-8) lost quarterback Josh McCown to a thumb injury.

McCown returned to Tampa Bay's starting lineup for the first time since loss, throwing for 301 yards and two TDs. His 1-yard pass to Austin Seferian-Jenkins put the Bucs ahead 17-16 early in the fourth quarter. But Ryan drove the Falcons down the field, throwing a 5-yard touchdown pass to Roddy White and a 2-point conversion to Harry Douglas.

Steven Jackson scored on a 1-yard run and Matt Bryant kicked four field goals for the Falcons.

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NFL Opening Line Report: Colts favored versus visiting Patriots

A few weeks ago, New England was 2-2 SU following a 41-14 whitewashing at the hands of the host Kansas City Chiefs, and on national TV, no less. Some were wondering if maybe the Patriots’ better days were behind them.

Well, apparently not. Tom Brady & Co. are coming off their bye week with five consecutive victories (4-1 ATS) and lead the AFC at 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). Prior to the bye, the Pats thumped defending AFC champion Denver 43-21 as a 3-point home underdog on Nov. 2.

New England will be back in prime time for a Sunday night matchup at Indianapolis (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS), which has also rebounded nicely after losing its first two games, going on a 6-1 SU and ATS tear. The Colts are also fresh off their bye week, after ripping the host New York Giants 40-24 laying 3 points on Nov. 3.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, made the Colts a 2.5-point favorite.

“I’d say it’s hard to bet against the Pats right now given their recent success, but Indy is pretty hot too,” Lester said. “Still, I’m expecting this number to come down at some point.”

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle hasn’t looked anything like the team that rolled Peyton Manning and Denver in the Super Bowl. On Sunday, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) had their hands full with the New York Giants until putting up 21 fourth-quarter points to win 38-17 as a 9-point home fave.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is quietly getting its season back on track, having won its last four in a row and six of its last seven SU and ATS. The Chiefs (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) edged Buffalo 17-13 catching 2 points on the road Sunday.

“The Seahawks get a taste of their own medicine, as Arrowhead Stadium still provides a great home-field edge,” Lester said. “With two salty defenses on the field, points will come at a premium. This is a tough game to handicap in my opinion, but I’d lean toward the Chiefs.”

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona might seem like this season’s surprise team, with its 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS record, but recall the Cardinals won 10 games last year, narrowly missing the playoffs. That said, the job could get a lot harder after quarterback Carson Palmer went down with a knee injury in Sunday’s 31-14 win over St. Louis – a game the Cards, 7-point favorites, didn’t lead until the fourth quarter

Detroit (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) leads the NFC North after posting four consecutive wins (2-2 ATS), including Sunday’s 20-16 victory laying 3 points against visiting Miami.

“A couple of sparkling records, but I don’t think either team is as good as their win column suggests,” Lester said. “We know what we’re getting with Drew Stanton if Palmer can’t play, but we’ll hold off on sending out a line until Palmer’s status is confirmed. If he’s out, the Cardinals will be very short chalk or a pick ‘em.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

The Mark Sanchez era in Philly is well underway, while quarterback Nick Foles recuperates from an injured collarbone. Sanchez and the Eagles (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) still have some work to do before focusing on the Packers, as they wrap up Week 10 in a Monday night game at home against Carolina.

Green Bay (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) rebounded from a blowout loss at New Orleans by boatracing the Chicago Bears in the Sunday night game. The Packers led 42-0 at halftime – on six Aaron Rodgers TD passes – en route to a 55-14 shellacking as a 9.5-point favorite.

“I’m very interested to see how Mark Sanchez performs on Monday night, but as I’ve said before, he should be able to limit mistakes in Chip Kelly’s offense,” Lester said. “If nothing major happens personnel- or performance-wise, then we’ll make the Packers between 4- and 6-point favorites.”

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Bettors strikes back

November 10, 2014

LAS VEGAS – One would think a Sunday when publicly-backed favorites dominated Week 10 NFL betting action – with an 8-3 mark against the spread in 11 games – could not get much worse for sportsbooks. However, you know it’s really bad when a favorite becomes an underdog and still bites you.

That was the case at The Wynn, as the Kansas City Chiefs opened as 2.5-point road favorites there against the Buffalo Bills, closed at +1.5 and won the game 17-13. Some very questionable decision-making by Buffalo head coach Doug Marrone at the end of the game cost Bills backers and The Wynn, as he went for it on 4th-and-10 at the Kansas City 15-yard line with 2:31 remaining rather than kicking a field goal, which would have at least covered the spread. Of course Marrone was not thinking that way.

“That’s the dumbest thing I’ve seen,” said Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations. “It’s not like you have Peyton Manning at the helm. There’s two-and-a-half minutes left, you kick the field goal and you try to play defense and kick another field goal and win the game. I thought that was the correct move.

“That was frustrating for me, I needed that field goal. The Chiefs we opened 2.5 and closed 1.5 the other side (Bills), but we had a lot of early money on the Chiefs. We still lost on that game.”

The other Sunday games were just as frustrating for Avello, particularly a clean sweep by favorites in the four later games, capped by the Sunday Night Football game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. The Denver Broncos (-13), Arizona Cardinals (-7) and Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) were all supported heavily by the public and ended up winning by a combined 62 points, with each of them easily covering the spread.

But Avello said the killer for him was not necessarily bettors taking each of those winning sides. He said the fact that so many teasers and parlays were tied into those games, and they all won, really cost The Wynn.

“It wasn’t so much on the straight side bets that got us because we were heavy on all those sides, but not by a lot,” Avello said. “You take all the teasers and the co-mingling of the parlays, that’s where we got hurt on the afternoon games.

“Sometimes it doesn’t matter if you’re right, you’re wrong sometimes. And what I mean by that is even though I may have opened a game higher than others and took quite a bit of money on the dog first, the teasers and parlays will end up getting me.”

The Packers (-9.5) not only crushed the Bears 55-14 but also did some damage to The Wynn. Avello said many parlays and teasers included Green Bay in a game that was decided in the first quarter. The Pack had opened as a 7-point home favorite before bettors piled on and faded Chicago in this NFC North rivalry game.

“The Packers 7 to 9.5, that was a big loss on that game,” Avello said. “You had a lot of stuff going to that game. A lot of teasers were still alive, a lot of parlays were alive.”

Avello said the only two games The Wynn made money on came earlier in the day when the San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) beat the New Orleans Saints 27-24 on the road in overtime and the New York Jets (+4.5) upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-13 at home. The Saints and Steelers had each won big in prime-time games the previous week.

“The Niners helped a little bit, and then the Jets helped a little,” Avello said. “And I think that was it.”

Any profits from those early wins though were taken away with more easy covers by solid favorites, including the biggest mover of the week in the Atlanta Falcons, who closed as 3-point road chalk against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after opening as a small underdog at The Wynn. The Falcons won, 27-17.

“We got hurt on the Bucs game, we went from Tampa 1 to Falcons 3 (-125),” Avello said. “We really got beat up on that game.”