The Bum's October College Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

1 - 1........................*****

2 - 0........................DOUBLE PLAY

0 - 1........................TRIPLE PLAY

0 - 0........................LIGHTS OUT


RATED PLAYS AND OPINIONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 4-*2-*0 66.67% +900

Friday, October 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 7:00 PM ET Syracuse +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Syracuse - Under 46.5 500 *****


San Diego State - 10:00 PM ET Fresno State -3 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Fresno State - Over 57.5 500 *****


Utah State - 10:15 PM ET Utah State +21 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Brigham Young - Under 52.5 500 *****

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SEC Showdowns

October 2, 2014


Florida at Tennessee

**Alabama at Ole Miss**

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (4-0 straight up, 1-2-1 against the spread) installed as a six-point favorite with a total of 52.5. The Rebels were +220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

-- This is the biggest game in Oxford since LSU came to town with the SEC West on the line in Eli Manning's senior season (2003). It is the first time that ESPN's GameDay crew has visited The Grove, and it is undoubtedly the biggest game of Hugh Freeze's tenure to date. Is his Ole Miss (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) squad ready to deal with the bright lights and expectations that come with a marquee game such as this? We will find out Saturday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

-- Ole Miss nearly fell victim to what was a vintage look-ahead situation last week at home against Memphis. I made a late decision to take the Tigers as 21-point underdogs and that move was looking good deep into the fourth quarter. In fact, the Rebels were only ahead 7-3 going into the final stanza. With a 10-3 advantage at the 9:34 mark, Jaylen Walton ripped off a 23-yard touchdown run to put his team on top by a 17-3 count. With 1:18 remaining, Bo Wallace found Laquon Treadwell for a 17-yard scoring strike to lift the Rebels to a 24-3 victory and a fortunate push for their wagering supporters.

-- Ole Miss captured three wins before facing Memphis. The Rebels beat Boise State (35-13) at the Georgia Dome in Week 1, and then they smashed Vanderbilt 41-3 in Nashville. In the home opener two weeks ago, Freeze's bunch mauled Louisiana-Lafayette by a 59-15 count.

-- Alabama has wins over West Virginia (33-23 at the Ga. Dome), Florida Atlantic (41-0), Southern Miss (52-12) and Florida (42-21). This is the Crimson Tide's first true road assignment and it has had an open date for extra preparation time.

-- Nick Saban's team made mistakes galore in the first half of its last game against Florida at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Those miscues allowed the Gators to stay in the game and to pull event at 21-21 early in the third quarter. But it was all 'Bama from there as it coasted to a 42-21 victory as a 14.5-point 'chalk.' Blake Sims enjoyed a breakout performance, throwing for 445 yards and four touchdowns. Amari Cooper had 10 receptions for 201 yards and three TDs, while Derrick Henry rushed for 101 yards and one score.

-- For the season, Sims has connected on 72.9 percent of his passes for 1,077 yards with an 8/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Cooper is the leading candidate to win the Belitnekoff Award, hauling in 43 receptions for 655 yards and five TDs in just four games.

-- Many factors go into the winning formula for both sides in this crucial SEC West showdown. But if there's one overriding factor for Ole Miss, it will be the play of its senior QB. Wallace has completed 71.0 percent of his passes for 1,271 yards and 11 TDs this season. However, he has been intercepted six times. If the Rebels are going to collect a groundbreaking 'W,' Wallace has to protect the football.

-- Laquon Treadwell, the true sophomore and former five-star recruit out of Chicago, has caught a team-high 20 balls for 307 yards and three TDs.

-- Ole Miss owns a 10-5-1 spread record in 16 home games on Freeze's watch. The Rebels are 3-2 ATS as home underdogs.

-- Since 2008, Alabama has cashed tickets at a 16-9 ATS clip as a road favorite.

-- The 'over' is 3-0-1 overall for 'Bama.

-- The 'under' is 3-1 for the Rebels, 1-1 in their home outings.

**LSU at Auburn**

-- As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had Auburn (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) favored by eight with a total of 57. Gamblers can back LSU to win outright for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250).

-- Auburn's 2014 resume consists of three blowout wins at home over Arkansas (45-21), San Jose State (59-13) and Louisiana Tech (45-17), in addition to a shaky 20-14 win at Kansas State, Gus Malzahn's team was fortunate to escape Manhattan with a victory. The Wildcats missed three field goals and blew a golden scoring opportunity deep inside the red zone when a TD pass was dropped and resulted in an Auburn interception. We should also note that the Razorbacks were tied with AU 21-21 at intermission.

-- AU quarterback Nick Marshall has 548 passing yards and a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 273 yards and a pair of scores while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Juco transfer Duke Williams has emerged as his new favorite target. Williams has a team-best 23 receptions for 357 yards and three TDs. Meanwhile, last year's top pass catcher Sammie Coates has been limited to five grabs for only 56 yards.

-- LSU (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) opened the season in Houston with a 28-24 come-from-behind win over Wisconsin. After blasting Sam Houston State and ULM by a combined score of 87-0, LSU got shocked at home by Mississippi State by a 34-29 count. The final score was actually misleading as the Bulldogs were in charge and ahead by a double-digit margin nearly the entire game, their first victory in Baton Rouge since 1991.

-- This is LSU's first true road assignment of the season. Likewise, this is freshman QB Brandon Harris's first career starting nod and it comes on the road at night on The Plains. Harris was announced as the new starter over Anthony Jennings earlier this week. Harris has completed 22-of-30 passes for 394 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 108 yards and three scores on just 16 totes.

-- LSU wide receiver Travin Dural has 21 receptions for 534 yards and five TDs. True freshman RB Leonard Fournette has rushed 56 times for 322 yards and four TDs. LSU is extremely deep in the backfield, but Fournette and Kenny Hilliard should get the bulk of the touches this weekend.

-- LSU is going to be without two key members of its secondary. Sophomore Dwayne Thomas, who had three sacks as a true freshman in 2013, was lost for the season in last week's 63-7 blowout win over New Mexico State Also, Corey Thompson is injured and out indefinitely.

-- Auburn is nursing injuries of its own, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Starting linebackers Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost are both listed as 'questionable,' but Gus Malzahn implied Wednesday that both are at least going to attempt to play. Another key defensive player, senior free safety Jermaine Whitehead, remains on indefinite suspension.

-- LSU has won three in a row over Auburn and six of the last seven. With that said, AU is 6-3-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head encounters. When these rivals met in Baton Rouge last season, the Bayou Bengals captured a 35-21 win but failed to cover the number as 17-point home favorites. AU got a 12-yard TD run for Cameron Artis-Payne with 6:33 remaining to hook up his team's supporters with a backdoor cover. Marshall was intercepted twice at Tiger Stadium.

-- LSU is 6-7 ATS in 13 games as a road underdog during Les Miles's 10-year tenure.

-- Auburn owns a 6-3 spread record in nine games as a home favorite on Malzahn's watch.

-- The 'over' is 3-1 overall for Auburn, 3-0 in its home games.

-- Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

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Total Notes - Week 6

October 3, 2014

Week 5 Recap

For the second consecutive week, total bettors watched the ‘under’ come out on top with a 27-24-1 record in the 52 FBS matchups. The lone push occurred in one of the matchups that we mentioned in our “Streaks to Watch” section last week, Louisiana Tech at Auburn. The Bulldogs saw their first four games go ‘over’ the number and some bettors may’ve cashed a winning ticket (61) last week as the Tigers captured a 45-17 victory. This game got a late burst with 28 points scored in the fourth quarter and actually had a shot to go ‘over’ late.

Streaks to Watch

Bettors have a couple more pending streaks to watch this weekend.

Under 5-0

Navy at Air Force

Under 4-0

Ball State at Army

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin

Nevada vs. Boise State

Over 4-0

Tulsa at Colorado State

Georgia vs. Vanderbilt

Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State

Michigan State vs. Nebraska

The one total streak that caught my attention was Michigan State’s run to the ‘over’ this season. Dating back to last year’s Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl, the Spartans have now seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight games. This week’s total (60) against Nebraska is the highest in the Mark Dantonio era since 2010 when they met Michigan. For that game, the number was 64 ½ and that battle featured NFL players Kirk Cousins and Denard Robinson.

Is the Spartans offense ahead of the defense and should we lean ‘over’ for Gang Green going forward?

We asked that question to VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos and he offered up his insight on Michigan State and its matchup against the Cornhuskers this week.

He said, “Michigan State's offensive outburst to this point has a lot to do with its opponents. The Spartans have face two terrible defenses in Jacksonville State and Eastern Michigan and played one of the most up-tempo teams in the country in Oregon. They did gain 533 yards and score 56 points on a good Wyoming defense that was trying to slow the game down though. The Spartans have been extremely efficient and I think it's simply a matter of them executing well and getting better quarterback play than they've gotten over the last few seasons. This is an unusually high total for a Spartans game and I think it'll go UNDER but the line is set due to the Nebraska defense, its much worse than you think. The Cornhuskers have played versus a very manageable set of offenses and still haven't looked that good. The only decent team they've faced is Miami and they allowed a redshirt-freshman QB to throw for 359 yards in Lincoln. Michigan State allows just 20 PPG and Nebraska just 19 PPG, I think we'll see a game more in line with those numbers than what the offenses put up. The Spartans do have the front seven to contain Conrhuskers RB AmeerAbdullah. Then what does Nebraska do?”

Don't miss out on college football selections from James Manos (64%)!

Big Five (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The ‘under’ went 5-4 in ACC matchups in Week 5 and this group is starting to see a couple schools differentiate themselves in the total market. Louisville (4-1) and Wake Forest (4-1) have both identified themselves as ‘under’ teams while North Carolina’s style and lack of defense should make you lean ‘over’ first in its games.

The Big 12 had the scoreboard operators working hard last week as five of the eight schools in action scored 35-plus points which helped the ‘over’ go 4-1. Oklahoma State has watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 and five other schools have seen 75 percent (3-1) of their games go ‘over.’ Two schools that lean ‘under’ are Texas and Kansas.

Every game that featured a Big Ten school was decided by double digits last weekend. When you have blowouts, the clock tends to tick and that usually results in ‘under’ tickets which was the case (6-5) in Week 5. As mentioned above, Michigan State has been a clear-cut ‘over’ team while Northwestern (4-0) and Iowa (4-1) have both leaned to the ‘under’ this season.

Even though there were two games in the Pac-12 last week that had 89 and 115 combined points scored, the ‘under’ produced a 3-2 record in Week 5.

The ‘over/under’ went 3-3-1 last week in SEC play. The Arkansas-Texas A&M had a closing total of 73 and the game started out as a shootout, with 28 points scored less than 17 minutes into the game. The tempo slowed down but still went into overtime 28-28. The Aggies captured a 35-28 victory in overtime and if the Razorbacks could’ve answered with a score, the ‘over’ would’ve likely cashed.

Line Moves

VI Totals Expert James Manos analyzes line movements in the totals market and breaks them into four categories, which are listed below with examples for Week 6.

1) Correct sharp movement – Virginia Tech/North Carolina UNDER
The oddsmakers sent out 63 ½ and that was too high as the professionals dropped the number to 59 ½.

2) Incorrect sharp movement – Stanford/Notre Dame OVER
This game opened 41 ½ and has jumped as high as 48 at some betting shops. The so-called wise guys may’ve overlooked the fact that the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.

3) Public movement – Alabama/Ole Miss OVER
The nationally televised CBS game on Saturday opened 48 ½ and moved quickly to 53. Some pundits believe the Crimson Tide can be taken in this matchup but hard to ignore the fact that the Rebels have scored 0, 14, 7, 10, and 3 points in their last five encounters vs. ‘Bama. Under 4-1 during this span.

4) Market manipulation – Navy/Air Force OVER
This game was bouncing back and forth between 54 and 55 all week before settling at 56 on Thursday. It moved up to 56 ½ and settled back to 56 as of Friday evening. Outside of a 35-34 shootout in 2011, this series has featured low-scoring battles, which has resulted in an 8-2 run to the ‘under.’


Listed below are all of the Week 6 total moves by 3.5 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday evening.

Week 6 Moves

Rotation Open Current

North Texas at Indiana 61.5 58

Pittsburgh at Virginia 50 46.5

Kansas at West Virginia 49.5 58

Toledo at Western Michigan 71.5 64.5

Marshall at Old Dominion 68 76.5

Virginia Tech at North Carolina 63.5 59.5

UMass at Miami-Ohio 54.5 58.5

South Carolina at Kentucky 52.5 56

Ball State at Army 52.5 58

Buffalo at Bowling Green 74 78.5

Stanford at Notre Dame 41.5 47

Arizona State at USC 63 68

Oklahoma at TCU 53.5 57

Iowa State at Oklahoma State 62 65.5

Alabama at Mississippi 48.5 53

Texas A&M at Mississippi State 63.5 75

UTEP at Louisiana Tech 63.5 56.5

New Mexico at Texas-San Antonio 59.5 55

UL Monroe at Arkansas State 47 52

UAB at Western Kentucky 75 71

Georgia Southern at New Mexico State 61 64.5

Boise State at Nevada 49 53

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Florida at Tennessee

October 2, 2014


SEC Showdowns

-- As of early Thursday, most books had Tennessee (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) listed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 55 for 'over/under' wagers. The Gators are +120 on the money line.

-- In Year 4 of the Will Muschamp Era, the longevity of his tenure has reached a crucial breaking point. It arrives at noon Eastern in Knoxville, where Florida (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) desperately needs a win over the Volunteers. If the Gators fall to 1-2 in SEC play, they'll be forced to win all of their five remaining league games to have any shot at winning the division. Four of those five remaining tilts come against LSU, Missouri, Georgia and South Carolina, although we should note that none of those contests are true road assignments. But that's what makes a win so imperative for UF, which could go into an open date ahead of the Georgia game with a 4-1 SEC record if it takes care of business against LSU and Missouri at The Swamp.

-- Tennessee hasn't tasted victory over Florida since winning 30-28 in extremely controversial fashion at Neyland Stadium in 2004. UF has won nine in a row with seven of those victories coming by double-digit margins. In their last visit to Neyland, Jeff Driskel sparked the Gators to a 37-20 win as 3.5-point underdogs. Driskel, a true sophomore at the time, threw a pair of TD passes without being intercepted and his team scored 24 unanswered points after falling behind 20-13 in the third quarter. Driskel also had eight rushes for 81 yards.

-- Butch Jones's team has wins over Utah State (38-7) and Arkansas State (34-19) at home, but it has dropped back-to-back games at Oklahoma (34-10) and at Georgia (35-32). UT raced out to a 10-0 lead in Athens last weekend before UGA responded with 21 straight points. With 18 seconds remaining in the first half, Justin Worley found Jason Croom for a 23-yard scoring strike to slice the deficit to 21-17 at intermission. After a scoreless third quarter, the Bulldogs went ahead by double digits twice, only for UT to come back each time to get within three points.

-- Worley was terrific at Sanford Stadium. In fact, he might have played his best career game. Even after injuring his shoulder in the third quarter and missing three consecutive series, the senior returned to throw a pair of TD passes in the final stanza. First, he found Pig Howard for a 31-yard TD pass and after connecting with Daniel Helm for the two-point conversion, UT was only down 28-25. The Vols would get the ball back deep in their own territory and a second-down run play turned into a fumble recovered by UGA in the end zone. Butch's bunch didn't quit, however, getting another TD pass from Worley with 1:18 left. But the onside kick didn't work and UGA prevailed.

-- Will Muschamp's squad has had two weeks to prep for the Vols. UF began the season with a 65-0 win over Eastern Michigan before barely slipping past Kentucky 36-30 in triple overtime. Next, the Gators went to Tuscaloosa and after tying the game at 21-21 early in the third quarter, saw Alabama dominate the rest of the game en route to a 42-21 triumph.

-- Driskel completed only 9-of-28 throws for 93 yards and was intercepted twice. To his credit, the fourth-year junior did have a TD pass to Valdez Showers in the first quarter and his third-quarter TD run tied the game. Driskel was awful the rest of the way, though. Driskel has completed 65-of-116 passes (56.0%) for 636 yards with a 5/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Muschamp wouldn't go there in preparation for this game, but Driskel's starting job could be equal to the head coach's job security. The back-up is athletic true freshman Treon Harris, who threw a pair of TD passes in his only attempts in the opener (albeit vs. Eastern Michigan).

-- Look for UF to employ a heavy dose of RBs Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor, both of whom are averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Jones has 258 rushing yards and two TDs, while Taylor has rushed for 143 yards and a pair of scores. Sophomore WR DeMarcus Robinson has emerged as the team's top wideout, hauling in 23 receptions for 353 yards and three TDs.

-- Florida starting DT Leon Orr is 'out' at UT. LB Michael Taylor, who is tied for team lead in tackles with 21, is 'questionable.'

-- Worley has completed 60.0 percent of his passes for 935 yards with a 9/3 TD-INT ratio. Marquez North is his favorite target and a rising star. North and Howard are tied for the team lead in receptions with 17. North has a team-best 188 receiving yards and three TDs. True freshman RB Jalen Hurd, a five-star recruit who was the gem in Jones's heralded 2014 class, has run for a team-high 328 yards and two scores while averaging 4.6 YPC.

-- Tennessee WR Josh Smith will his second straight game with a high ankle sprain. Before suffering the injury at Oklahoma, Smith was second on the team in catches (10) and receiving yards (135). UT has also been missing WR Von Pearson, who reportedly "practiced a little bit on Tuesday." Pearson, who had seven receptions for 98 yards in the Vols' first two games, remains a question mark vs. UF.

-- The Vols are 2-4 ATS as home favorites during Jones's tenure, 1-1 this season.

-- As a road underdog on Muschamp's watch, Florida owns a 4-4 spread record.

-- The 'over' is 3-0 for the Gators, whose games have averaged 64.7 points per game.

-- The 'under' is 3-1 for the Vols, 2-0 in their home games.

-- The 'over' has hit four straight times in the UF-UT rivalry.

-- The SEC Network will have the telecast at noon Eastern.

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Saturday's Top Action

October 3, 2014


ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (4-0) at OLE MISS REBELS (4-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Alabama -6, Total: 53

No. 3 Alabama hits the road on Saturday as it takes on No. 11 Ole Miss in a tough SEC battle.

The Crimson Tide have run the table through their first four contests while outscoring their opponents by an average of 28 points, but going a mere 1-2-1 ATS. Their offense has been impressive, averaging 587 yards per game and in their toughest matchup to date last week against Florida, piled up 645 yards (449 passing) while winning 42-21 as 14-point favorites. The teams combined for seven turnovers, as the Crimson Tide held the Gators to a woeful 200 yards of offense and dominated the time of possession by keeping the ball for 39:16. Ole Miss has been great in the early going and is also a perfect 4-0 SU while also covering in all four of its contests.

The Rebels have blown out their opponents by an average of 30.5 PPG while twice coughing the ball up three or more times. In their most recent game, they were 20.5-point favorites at home against Memphis and put forth a tremendous defensive effort, coming away with a 24-3 victory as they held the Tigers to 104 yards of offense, including just 23 rushing yards on 31 attempts (0.7 YPC). The Rebels have not had an SU victory in this matchup since 2003, while Alabama has held its opponent to an average of 188 total yards and 7.0 PPG over the past three meetings. Ole Miss failed to record a point in last year’s game, losing 25-0 as 14-point underdogs while the Crimson Tide ran for 254 yards and recorded 21 first downs.

Bettors should be aware that Alabama has gone 26-12 ATS (68%) when coming off two consecutive home wins since 1992 while the Rebels are an impressive 18-5 ATS (78%) in games played on turf since the beginning of the 2012 campaign. The injury report has HB Tyren Jones (undisclosed) as questionable for the Crimson Tide while Mississippi has no significant injuries to report.

Alabama’s dominance has come from its ability to attack teams from all different sources, ranking in the top-20 in passing (335.8 YPG) and rushing (258.5 YPG) while scoring 42.0 PPG (16th in FBS). QB Blake Sims (1,091 pass yards, 8 TD, 2 INT) had his best performance of the young season last week against Florida, going 23-for-33 (70%) for 445 yards (13.5 YPA) and 4 TD (1 INT). He has also done a solid job with his legs, rushing for 141 yards (6.4 YPC) and two touchdowns. The backfield is led by the tandem of HBs Derrick Henry (320 rush yards, 2 TD) and T.J. Yeldon (284 rush yards, 2 TD) while HB Kenyan Drake has provided a spark when needed with 112 yards on the ground (5.1 YPC) and a team-best four rushing touchdowns.

WR Amari Cooper has caught 43-of-92 (47%) of the team’s passes for 655 yards (15.2 avg) while pulling in five touchdown catches. HB Kenyan Drake has been explosive out of the backfield as well with 149 yards on just four receptions (37.3 avg) with two scores. As usual, the defense has put up some gaudy numbers, allowing a mere 14.0 PPG (9th in FBS) while giving up only 62 YPG on the ground (3rd in nation). DB Landon Collins (29 tackles, 1 INT) is an All-American candidate and is the leader of the stout defensive unit.

Ole Miss has done a majority of its work through the air, averaging 335.5 YPG (13th in nation) from the passing game while scoring 39.0 PPG. QB Bo Wallace (1,271 pass yards, 11 TD, 6 INT) has struggled with turnovers, but has thrown for more than 300 yards in three of the four contests this season. He has connected on an impressive 71% of his passes while getting 9.7 YPA and had two touchdowns and two interceptions in last week’s victory over Memphis. The carries for the team have been split between HBs Jaylen Walton (199 rush yards, 3 TD) and I’Tavious Mathers (151 rush yards, 2 TD) who have combined to average a solid 5.8 YPC.

Five different receivers have tallied double-digit receptions thus far with WR Laquon Treadwell (307 rec. yards, 3 TD) leading the team in yards and receptions (20) while WR Cody Core (277 rec. yards) has a team-high four touchdown grabs. The Rebels defense has been one of the best in the nation, allowing 8.5 PPG (3rd in FBS) and has given up the fourth-fewest yards in FBS (248 YPG). The defense is full of big-time playmakers, while DB Cody Prewitt is looking to provide a senior presence being a former All-American.

STANFORD CARDINAL (3-1) at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (4-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Stanford -1.5, Total: 44

Two top-notch teams square off on Saturday afternoon as No. 9 Notre Dame hosts No. 14 Stanford.

The Cardinal (2-2 ATS) are coming off a big road victory at Washington, using the nation’s best defense to squeak out a 20-13 victory, while the Irish (3-1 ATS) recorded their fourth straight win by at least two touchdowns by knocking off Syracuse 31-15 on a neutral field in East Rutherford, NJ. Last season, these two schools played a close game that Stanford was eventually able to win 27-20. In that meeting, the Cardinal outgained the Fighting Irish, 419-263, while allowing only 64 yards on the ground (2.7 YPC). Quarterback Kevin Hogan did not have his best game (12-of-18, 158 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), but Stanford did a great job of grinding out the game on the ground with 261 rushing yards on 51 carries (5.1 YPC). The Cardinal give up only 6.5 PPG, and that will obviously play a big role in the outcome on Saturday.

The Fighting Irish are 5-15 ATS against defenses that allow less 14.0 PPG or less since 1992, but they are also a perfect 6-0 ATS when facing a good team (60% to 75% win pct.) over the past three seasons. The offense is different than last season, as QB Everett Golson is back this season, and has shown he has improved greatly from two seasons ago when he led his team to the national championship game. Last week, he threw for 362 yards and 4 TD, while also setting a school record with 25 consecutive completions. While the Fighting Irish were able to win against Syracuse, they turned the ball over five times in that victory. If Notre Dame is going to get the win this week, it can ill-afford to turn the ball over like that.

While the defense of the Cardinal gets most of the talk, there is talent on the offensive side of the ball. QB Kevin Hogan (883 passing yards, 8 TD, 2 INT) does a great job of minimizing his mistakes and managing the offense. With such a great defense, he does not have to go out there and win games by throwing the ball 50+ times. Rather, he needs to just keep the offense moving, and capitalize if there is an opportunity. Hogan is 10-2 against ranked teams in his career, with one of his losses being against the last ranked team he played, USC in Week 2. While the running game is not the same as it was last year, this is still a talented unit that does it more by committee. RBs Barry Sanders (21 carries, 153 yards) and Remound Wright (29 carries, 151 yards) are both capable backs that are continuing to improve throughout the season. One thing they have to do is score touchdowns. The team has rushed for only four touchdowns this year, with two coming from Hogan.

The other two are from WR Ty Montgomery and FB Patrick Skov. If this duo can start running the ball better, it is going to open things up for Montgomery (26 catches, 275 yards, 3 TD), who is one of the most dynamic players in the country. He is not only a playmaker in the passing game, but also has the ability to run the ball, and return kicks. His ability to get behind the defense means that opposing teams are always going to have a safety over top against him. That allows the middle of the field to be wide open for guys like Austin Hooper (15 catches, 189 yards, 1 TD) and Devon Cajuste (11 catches, 155 yards, 3 TD). Cajuste had a touchdown in the game against the Fighting Irish, and is a difficult matchup at 6-foot-4 and 228 pounds. The defense enters this game allowing only 6.5 PPG, which is tops in the country.

Through four games, they have given up only two touchdowns. LB Blake Martinez (31 tackles) is the leading tackler on the team, always seeming to be around the ball. Sophomore LB Peter Kalambayi (15 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks) gives the Cardinal a young playmaker that can get after the quarterback. Everett Golson has the ability to make plays with his feet, so the Cardinal will have to be ready to run from sideline to sideline.

Everett Golson (1,142 passing yards, 11 TD, 2 INT) has been terrific thus far in the season, also rushing for 104 yards and four touchdowns. This season he has shown much improvement on the deep ball, allowing the team to take more chances down the field, compared to when he was the quarterback two years ago. However, like the Cardinal, there has been a struggle rushing the ball. RB Greg Bryant (33 carries, 174 yards, 1 TD) has shown some potential from the position, but he has not been consistent running the football. In the game against the Orange, the Fighting Irish went to more of a short passing game. WR William Fuller (25 catches, 344 yards, 5 TD) had a big game last week, tallying 119 yards and two touchdowns. Golson has done a great job of spreading the ball around, as five Notre Dame receivers have a touchdown thus far.

The defense is led by LB Jaylon Smith (31 tackles), who does a great job of making sure every player is where he needs to be, while DL Romeo Okwara leads the team with 2.5 sacks. The unit has been outstanding this year, allowing only 11.5 PPG. Both of the teams can stifle an opponent, but the key to this game very easily could be the play of the quarterback. Hogan is the guy that has played his role for so long and knows what to do, but Golson is the type of player that can single-handedly win football games.

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (5-0) at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (3-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Michigan State -7, Total: 59.5

No. 10 Michigan State gets its Big Ten season kicked off on Saturday night, as it hosts undefeated No. 19 Nebraska.

Last season, Michigan State went to Lincoln and defeated the Cornhuskers, 41-28. The Spartans were outgained 392-361, but won the game in large part because they had the ball for nearly 39 minutes and forced five Nebraska turnovers. MSU QB Connor Cook, who had 193 passing yards and 1 TD in last season’s meeting, has emerged as one of the elite passers in the country. The Spartans defense has been great this year, and the team is 6-0 ATS the past two seasons after allowing 17 points or less in two consecutive games.

Nebraska has looked very good in the early part of the season, and is coming off a 45-14 victory against Illinois in the conference opener. However, the Cornhuskers have struggled on the road against ranked teams, having never beaten a ranked team in Big Ten play. The last time Nebraska has won on the road versus a ranked team was at Oklahoma State in 2010 when it was still a member of the Big 12. In last year’s matchup, Huskers RB Ameer Abdullah was able to have a productive day (123 rush yards) despite the loss. The Cornhuskers have been very good against the Spartans though, going 5-1 (SU and ATS) in the past six matchups. Although Nebraska is 11-2 ATS after scoring 31+ points in five straight games since 1992, Michigan State is 14-1 ATS in this same timeframe after allowing 450 total yards or less in a two-game stretch.

The Cornhuskers enter this game ranked 3rd in FBS rushing (354.8 YPG) and 7th in scoring (45.4 PPG), but only 82nd in passing (217.8 YPG). Tommy Armstrong Jr. (1,052 passing yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has shown that he has the ability to make plays with his arm. With defenses so focused on the run game, he is going to have some opportunities to attack down the field. While he has shown he can be a solid passer, Armstrong is at his best when he is running the ball (50 carries, 420 yards, 2 TD). He does a great job of running the read option, which makes one of the elite running backs in the country, RB Ameer Abdullah (114 carries, 833 yards, 8 TD), even more difficult to stop. He has emerged as one of the top playmakers in the country, as evidenced by a game-winning touchdown catch late against McNeese State in Week 2. He is a very patient runner that sets up his blocking, but he also does a nice job of pass protecting.

WRs Kenny Bell (19 rec, 389 yards, 2 TD) and Jordan Westerkamp (16 rec, 316 yards, 3 TD) do a great job of making tough catches. Westerkamp has emerged as the big-play threat for the team, as the defenses tend to focus on the taller Bell. The Nebraska defense has been solid as well, allowing only 19.0 PPG (26th in nation).

The leading tackler on the team is DB Nate Gerry (30 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF). As a sophomore, Derry figures to be matched up with Michigan State wide receiver Tony Lippett a lot. DE Randy Gregory (17 tackles, 4.5 sacks) is the leading pass rusher for the Cornhuskers, and his play will be key considering MSU's Connor Cook has shown a tendency to put the ball up in the air if pressured. But few teams have been able to get after Cook.

The Spartans have bounced back nicely since losing to the Oregon. In the past two games, Michigan State has averaged 64.5 PPG in its two victories. The offense currently ranks 3rd in the country in the scoring (50.5 PPG), 20th in rushing (252 YPG) and 48th in passing (263 YPG). QB Connor Cook (837 pass yards, 9 TD, 2 INT) may not have the biggest numbers, but he has also been taken out early in the game because of the lead. Cook is a mobile quarterback that can get outside the pocket, but he does that to allow his receivers more time to get open. While the Spartans' passing game has the potential to put up a lot of points, the ground game is where Michigan State likes to get things started. RB Jeremy Langford (37 carries, 151 yards and 3 TD against Nebraska last season) is a physical runner that gets stronger as the game goes on. Langford (62 carries, 340 yards, 3 TD) has been similar to Cook as he is not getting the amount of carries that was expected entering this season, but now that conference play is here, look for his numbers to increase.

Top WR Tony Lippett (22 catches, 421 yards, 6 TD) is one of the most explosive players in the country with touchdown catches of 64 and 71 yards on the season. For Michigan State’s offense to take it to the next level, it needs another receiver to emerge. TE Josiah Price (9 catches, 124 yards, 2 TD) is the second leading receiver on the team, and he will continue to see his targets increase as defenses double-team Lippett. While the offense of the Spartans has improved, the defense is a very talented unit. The defense ranks 35th in the country in points allowed (20.3 PPG), but 46 of the 81 points the unit has given up were against Oregon.

The defense is led by one of the top defensive linemen in the country in senior DE Shilique Calhoun (9 tackles, 2 sacks). He demands a double-team, and has shown the ability to take his play to another level in crucial games. S RJ Williamson (19 tackles) is the leading tackler on a team that flies to the football. Very rarely does any one Spartans player make a tackle by himself, and that will be a key in a game against Abdullah and Nebraska's potent ground game.

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

3 - 2........................*****

3 - 1........................DOUBLE PLAY

1 - 1........................TRIPLE PLAY

0 - 0........................LIGHTS OUT


RATED PLAYS AND OPINIONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 7-*5-*0 58.33% +750

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Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

College football action is picking up with Saturday just around the corner. We talk to Jay Rood, Director of Race and Sports at MGM properties in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves on the Week 6 board and where those odds could end up come kickoff:

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

This SEC showdown opened with oddsmakers on the fence, but wiseguys hit Mississippi State hard early in the week and pushed this spread as many as 2.5 points. Rood, however, doesn’t expect a move to the key number of three before the noon ET kickoff.

“The ticket count is fairly even, with a little lean to Texas A&M. But the sharps are all on Mississippi State,” Rood tells Covers. “Hard to say what the public will do now. Depending on where this spread moves, we could have sharps coming in late and laying the favorite.”

SMU Mustangs at East Carolina Pirates – Open: -34.5, Move: -41.5

The cat is out of the bag on East Carolina, which seems to be the mightiest of the mid-major programs. Sharps were all over the Pirates in the opening weeks of the season but now the public has caught on and has moved this spread as much as a touchdown at online books.

“Sharp action laid the big number and the public continues to bet East Carolina,” says Rood. “Everyone is keenly aware of ECU now, they’re not an undercover story now. So we will be needing the Ponies in a big way Saturday, probably need them for two scores. And the way they’ve played recently, they could be hard pressed to do that.”

Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats – Open: +10, Move: +7

Some markets have moved the spread for this Big Ten battle as much as a field goal, while MGM properties opened Wisconsin -9 and are now dealing -8. All the money is on Northwestern, which is a change of pace for the Badgers’ recent games, in which Wisconsin was the overwhelming choice for bettors.

“They’re definitely all over Northwestern,” Rood says of the wiseguys. “This game is dropping as we speak. The home dog is getting all the action, from the sharp perspective. However, it’s all Wisconsin on parlays and teasers.”

Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -24, Move: -28

The firing of Kansas coach Charlie Weis has sparked money against the Jayhawks in Week 6. It’s a tough call whether or not KU will be better or worse without Weis – it can’t get much worse, can it?

“It’s literally all West Virginia money from everywhere – sharps and squares,” says Rood, “Everyone is calling for a lopsided affair. I sometimes look at these situations and expect some extra motivation (from the team that fired its coach). But I just don’t know in this case?”

LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers – Open: -9, Move: -7.5

This SEC matchup is the big game on the Week 5 schedule, and it looks like Auburn is the popular play even though the line has moved as much as 1.5 points toward LSU, pointing the finger to sharp money. According to Rood, there haven’t been a lot of tickets written on this game yet, but the ones that have come in are substantial.

“We have some decent-sized tickets on this. It’s going to be a pretty high dollar amount game. We’ll write some business on this one,” he says. “Sharps could bring this one down and the public could keep playing it. We could get some decent two-way action on this but if sharps keep chopping it down, we could find ourselves in a spot where we get sided on eight.”

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NCAAF

Saturday, October 4

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Game of the Day: LSU at Auburn
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LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers (-7.5, 58.5)

Fifth-ranked Auburn puts its 12-game home winning streak on the line when it hosts No. 15 LSU for a Southeastern Conference West Division showdown Saturday night. It's the beginning of a brutal stretch for Auburn as it tries to defend its SEC crown and claim a spot in the inaugural four-team playoff. LSU has won three straight meetings and six of the last seven, including a 35-21 home win last season, but the home team has won 12 of the last 14 contests in the series.

After surviving a scare at Kansas State on Sept. 18, Auburn cruised to a 45-17 win over Louisiana Tech last week. LSU couldn't complete a furious comeback in a 34-29 loss to Mississippi State in its SEC opener two weeks ago but was sharp in a 63-7 tuneup versus New Mexico State last Saturday. A victory would be coach Les Miles' 100th at LSU, while Auburn seeks its 300th all-time victory in SEC play.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Auburn -7.5

LINE REPORT: The line opened at Auburn -8.5, but bettors have pushed it down to -7.5. The total has been shifting upwards after opening at 56.5, it now sits at 58.5.

INJURY REPORT: LSU - FB Connor Neihgbors (Prob-Concussion), DT Quentin Thomas (Ques-Arm) Auburn - LB LaDarius Owens (Prob-Undisclosed), OL Patrick Miller (Ques-Undisclosed)

WEATHER REPORT: Clear skies are projected for the game, but thunderstorms are expected for the night before. Winds will be blowing NW 12-14 miles per hour.

ABOUT LSU (4-1, 0-1 SEC): Despite the early slip-up versus Mississippi State, the Tigers' stock is rising since freshman quarterback Brandon Harris took the reins of the offense. Harris led LSU to touchdowns on all seven possessions he played against New Mexico State and has led TD drives on nine of his last 10 possessions since taking over against the Bulldogs. The Tigers dominated inferior opponents but dug early holes against Wisconsin and Mississippi State and must be much more sound defensively in the first half against Auburn.

ABOUT AUBURN (4-0, 1-0): The Tigers continue to move the ball at will under coach Gus Malzahn, particularly on the ground. Tailback Cameron Artis-Payne (117 yards per game, 5 TDs) and quarterback Nick Marshall (68.2 yards per game, 2 TDs) are dangerous runners, and Marshall has done enough damage as a passer to keep defenses honest, averaging 137 yards through the air with six TDs and one interception. Defensively, the Tigers have given up large chunks of yardage through the air but have gotten nine takeaways to limit the damage.

TRENDS:

*Auburn is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
*LSU is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.
*Over is 8-1 in Auburn's last 9 home games.
*Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Auburn.

CONSENSUS: 53.47 percent of users are backing LSU +7.5, with 55.3 percent taking the over.

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NCAAF

Saturday, October 4


Four programs perfect at the betting window

With Week 6 of the college football schedule upon us, four unblemished against the spread records remain as Georgia Southern (5-0 ATS), Virginia (5-0), East Carolina (4-0) and TCU (3-0) all head into Saturday's action with perfect ATS records.

Three programs - Baylor, Memphis and Ole Miss - have not posted an ATS loss, but each have one push.

All four of those aforementioned schools are in action today as Georgia Southern (+19) visits New Mexico State, Virginia (-5) hosts Pitt, East Carolina (-41) hosts SMU and TCU (+3.5) hosts Oklahoma.


Windy conditions in Big Ten matchup

Wind could play a factor in Saturday's meeting at Memorial Stadium as Illinois hosts Purdue in the Big Ten.

Forecasts are calling for wind to blow across the field at around 17 mph in Champaign and there is a slight possibility of rain at 16 percent.

Temperatures will be in the mid-40s under mostly cloudy skies.

Oddsmakers have Illinois as an 8.5-point home fave a total of 54.5.


Florida on hot SU streak versus Tennessee

The Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers renew acquaintances at Neyland Stadium Saturday, and it's the Gators that have had the edge of late winning nine-straight rivalry games straight up.

Over that stretch, the Gators have posted a record of 5-3-1 against the spread at the betting window.

Oddsmakers opened the Gators as 1-point road faves for Saturday's meeting, but action has pushed Tennessee to -2.5 at most shops, with a couple of Tennessee -3's available.

As for the moneyline, the Gators can be had for anywhere from +115 to +125.


Thunderstorms in store for Ball State-Army game

According to weather forecasts, there is a 95 percent possibility of thunderstorms for Saturday's game between the Ball State Cardinals and Army Black Knights Saturday.

Temperatures will be in the low-60s and wind will blow across Michie Stadium at around 5 mph.

The Black Knights are currently 1.5-point home favorites and the total is 58.5.


Gamecocks WR Roland misses flight to Kentucky

According to several media outlets, South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Shaq Roland did not make the journey to Kentucky for Saturday's game between the Gamecocks and Wildcats.

The school has not stated why, exactly, the junior did not travel.

Roland has 15 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns on the season.


Baylor D getting overlooked due to potent offense

The Baylor Bears' high-flying offense is getting a lot of attention this year, but their defense has been no slouch, either.

In week 5 against Iowa State, the Bears limited the Cyclones' runningbacks to just 28 yards on 20 carries. They boast the fifth best rushing defense in the nation, and are ranked sixth overall in total defense.

Baylor visits Texas for a date with the Longhorns Saturday. The Bears are presently -14.5 road faves with an O/U of 58.5 for the inter-state clash.


Wake Forest has ugly history against Top 25 teams

If you're looking to back the underdog in a David vs. Goliath matchup in Week 6 college football action, trends are showing you may want to stay away from Wake Forest against No. 2 ranked Florida State.

The Demon Deacons' all-time record against Top 25 teams is an ugly 22-125-1. The last time they pulled off the upset, however, was in 2011 against the Seminoles.

The 'Noles are currently 38-point home faves with a total of 55.5 for the contest.


Oklahoma's defense keeping TCU in check

Oklahoma will be traveling to Fort Worth, Texas with an impressive streak against TCU. The Sooners and Horned Frogs have met 13 times in their schools histories, in those meetings TCU has never scored more than 20 points in a contest.

The Sooners defense has held opponents to an average of 16.5 points while TCU has scored 44.6 points per game.

The total for the game currently sits at 57.5.

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NCAAF

Saturday, October 4


Wind could play a factor in Ohio State-Maryland

The Maryland Terrapins host the Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday and wind could aid teams moving the ball toward the east endzone. According to forecasts, wind will blow toward that end of the field at 13 mph.

The rest of the forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-60s under partly cloudy skies with a small, 11 percent possibility of rain.


Buckeyes dominant in conference play

The Ohio State Buckeyes take a 16-game winning streak (straight up) in Big Ten regular season play into Saturday's game at the Maryland Terrapins.

The Buckeyes are 9-6-1 against the spread at the betting window over those 16 regular season conference games.

They open their Big Ten season as 7-point favorites at Maryland Saturday.


Texas A&M not slowing up late in games

Texas A&M has outscored opponents by an outstanding 59 points in the fourth quarter this season. The Aggies and LSU are tied for the largest fourth quarter margin in the FBS this season, a full 11 points better than the next team.

Mississippi State is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 100th in the FBS with a -16 fourth quarter margin.


Still looking for first ATS win, FSU a huge fave

The Florida State Seminoles have been prime fade material this season as they head into their Week 6 matchup with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0-4 against the spread.

The Westgate LV Superbook opened Florida State as 39-point home faves, but that has moved to -38.

Faithful Florida State backers can probably find some solace in the previous two results between the schools. The Seminoles have won those two meetings with a combined scoreline of 111-3, covering as 28-point faves in 2012 and 34-point faves in 2013.


Wake Forest great at keeping games close

The Demon Deacons No.30 ranked defense has kept them in games this season. Wake Forest's three losses this season have come by an average of 9.3 points.

The Deacs' are 38-point road dogs against Florida State Saturday.


ECU Pirates biggest fave on Saturday's board

Oddsmakers have adjusted the line for Week 6's matchup between SMU and East Carolina and the Pirates are now 41-point home faves at offshore books. The Pirates opened as 37-point favorites, but that line began moving instantly.

Books in Las Vegas are currently offering the Pirates as 42-point faves.

The Pirates have been perfect at the betting window this season, going 4-0 against the spread through their first four games - three of which came as underdogs.

The Mustangs, on the other hand, have mustered 12 points in four games this season and have lost all four games by an average of 47.5 points.


Foreign territory for Longhorns backers

The Texas Longhorns are currently 14.5-point home underdogs with the Baylor Bears in town, and according to ESPN, it's a pretty historical number that oddsmakers have put on their boards.

The Longhorns haven't been a double-digit underdog at home at any point over the past 25 years.

The line has come down a little since post, as the Westgate LV Superbook opened the Longhorns as 15.5-point dogs.


Home teams dominating 'Battle for the Cannon'

Purdue will travel to Champaign to take on Illinois in another installment of the 'Battle for the Cannon.' In the past four meetings in the rivalry, the home team is 4-0 against the spread.

The Boilermakers are 8.5-point road dogs against the Illini Saturday.


Dogs cashing in between Eastern Michigan-Akron

Eastern Michigan and Akron will renew hostilities when they face one another Saturday. Underdogs have been dominating the series as of late with the favorite carrying a 1-7 record against the spread in the last eight meetings.

The Eagles are currently 25.5-point dogs.

[StarDust Bum]

Essential Week 6 college football betting tidbits

There is plenty of Top 25 action in Week 6 of the college football schedule. If you're having trouble keeping track of it all, here are some essential betting tidbits for all of those ranked matchups:

(18) Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

* The Buckeyes offense is running on full cylinders tallying 380 rushing yards and 330 passing yards in their last game. This marks only the fourth time in school history the team topped 300 yards in both those categories in one game.

* Maryland will try and continue defensive adjustments from last week to slow down Ohio State's rushing attack. "We wanted to play very aggressive and fit our gaps and run to the ball. We are going to continue to do that as a defense and it'll help us in the long run," Terrapins DL Darius Kilgo said.

Southern Methodist Mustangs at (21) East Carolina Pirates

* Tom Mason will be coaching his third game as the interim coach for the Mustangs. This is the second time in his career he has held the distinction, also at Boise State in 1996, and is carrying a lifetime coaching record of 1-12.

* "I personally felt like we needed to cut down our penalties as a team. After the first quarter, I want to be a better team in the second quarter of eliminating penalties," Pirates coach Ruffin McNeill told the media Monday. ECU has given up an average of 75 yards per game due to penalties.

Iowa State Cyclones at (23) Oklahoma State Cowboys

* Cyclones coach Paul Rhoads made quite a commotion at his weekly presser. The sixth-year coach pounded his podium imitating the 'Paddle People' in Stillwater. Iowa State has always been affected by the crowds at Boone Pickens Stadium, going 6-17 SU in its last 23 in Stillwater.

* Oklahoma State ranks 11th nationally with eight tackles for loss per game, is 19th nationally with 3.25 sacks per game and is third nationally with three blocked kicks.

(7) Texas A&M Aggies at (14) Mississippi State Bulldogs

* The Aggies are leading the FBS with 27 completions of 20 yards or longer this season. They will be facing a Bulldogs team that ranks last in the SEC in passing defense.

* Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen is not kidding himself about this game. "I don't see it being a real low-scoring battle in the trenches," the sixth-year coach said. "If you hold them just below the average, we'll have to score 50."

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at (2) Florida State Seminoles

* Shocking victories are not common in the Demon Deacons' history. Wake Forest has an all-time record of 22-125-1 against top 25 teams with the last victory coming in 2011 versus the Seminoles.

* The Seminoles could be reloading their team this Saturday. FSU is expecting both DE Mario Edwards and RB Mario Pender to be dressed and ready to go against the Demon Deacons.

(6) Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns

* Baylor may be outscoring teams 227-55, but it's not just their offense that is shining. The Bears defense held Iowa State RBs to 28 yards on 20 carries last week.

* It's pretty clear that the Longhorns and Bears are developing a bitter rivalry. "Just because they started playing better in this era, that's good for them. We're still Texas," Longhorns WR John Harris said this week.

(1) Alabama Crimson Tide at (11) Ole Miss Rebels

* Alabama has been training hard this week with full pad practices, but QB Blake Sims does not look 100 percent. The senior is dealing with a shoulder injury and was not throwing as hard as he could during practices.

* After some mediocre years, Ole Miss is finally getting the right attitude in the locker room. "It's daylight (and) dark from our sophomore year when going down to Baton Rouge and just playing with LSU was a moral victory," quarterback Bo Wallace said. "Now it's ‘We have to win these games, we have to win these big games to take our program to the next level."

(16) Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats

* If there is one word to describe how the Badgers' WR feel this season it is frustrated. Kenzel Doe, Rob Wheelwright and Reggie Love all described their seasons as frustrating this week. The three have combined for two catches and 11 yards.

* Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald is far from satisfied with his team. The coach said Jack Mitchell was "terrible," the punting game was "horrendous" and that LB Anthony Walker made 10 mental errors.

(13) Stanford Cardinals at (8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

* The Cardinals have not forgotten the special teams game this season. "(Korey Drunkee is) probably the best punter I've ever seen," said return man Ty Montgomery. “He was putting the ball all over the field. Most of his punts were over 50 yards. It was incredible.’’

* The Fighting Irish are 15-0 under Brian Kelly when they don't turn the ball over, a record that RB Tony Alford is well aware of. "A fumble is an unacceptable deal. If you feel like the ball is coming out, fall down...there is no forgivable fumble."

(3) Oklahoma Sooners at (25) TCU Horned Frogs

* The Sooners have been dominating TCU defensively in all 13 games they've faced each other. Oklahoma has not once allowed the Horned Frogs to score more than 20 points once.

* TCU ranks second in the nation in total defense, allowing only 2.2 yards per rush and a 49.0 passing completion percentage.

Vanderbilt Commodores at (12) Georgia Bulldogs

* It doesn't seem anyone is going to mistake Vandy for an offensive powerhouse. Last week QB Wade Freebeck went 8-for-25 for 85 yards with three interceptions while getting sacked four times.

* The Bulldogs offense is set to get WR Malcom Mitchell back in the lineup according to coach Mark Richt. "He would have to have a setback to not play," the coach said. Mitchell tore his ACL celebrating in the season opener against Clemson.

(15) LSU Tigers at (5) Auburn Tigers

* LSU is going to be putting the ball in the hands of a freshman against Auburn. QB Brandon Harris will get the start for the Tigers Les Miles said Monday. The freshman went 11-for-14 against New Mexico State with three TD's.

* Auburn QB Nick Marshall ranks third in the nation in rushing yards among active QB's since the beginning of last season. The senior could have a big day against a LSU defense that is surrendering the sixth-most rushing yards to QB's.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at (22) Kansas State Wildcats

* The Red Raiders may be going into Bill Snyder Family Stadium down their starting QB. David Webb is listed as day-to-day after suffering a shoulder injury against Oklahoma State last week. The sophomore QB has 1356 yards with 14 TD's this season.

* Wildcats head coach Bill Snyder's biggest concern about Texas Tech's offense is the speed. "From a defensive standpoint, the thing is that you do not have time to really sit and process things as well as you would like to."

(24) Arizona State Sun Devils at (20) USC Trojans

* It does not appear that QB Taylor Kelly will be healthy enough to play against USC, so the Sun Devils will need to call on Mike Bercovici again. The junior threw for 488 yards with three TD's and two interceptions against UCLA.

* No defense in the nation has been quite as overpowering than the Trojans. USC ranks sixth in the nation with a turnover differential of +7 and the have not allowed a passing touchdown through four games.

(17) Nebraska Cornhuskers at (10) Michigan State Spartans

* Tommy Armstrong Jr. was abused by the Spartans last year throwing an interception and losing two fumbles, but he understands what happened. ""I was kind of wide-eyed when I played against them my first year. But now I know what to expect, I know what our offense is capable of just by what we’ve been doing the whole year."

* It may seem a bit extreme, but Spartans LT Jack Conklin attributes his offseason weight loss to a Cornhuskers DE. "I learned about the speed facing (Randy Gregory), because he's very fast,'' Conklin said. "That's partially why I went about losing my weight because I looked at the film and I had to do something to help me against these kinds of guys."

Utah Utes at (9) UCLA Bruins

* Utah is one of the best starting teams in college football. The Utes have outscored their opponents 55-10 in the first quarter this season.

* UCLA's Brett Hundley lit up the Utes while scoring a touchdown passing, running and receiving last season as the Bruins beat Utah by seven points for the second straight year.

[StarDust Bum]

1st Set of Early Games:

Saturday, October 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ohio State - 12:00 PM ET Ohio State -7 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Maryland -

Southern Methodist - 12:00 PM ET East Carolina -40.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
East Carolina -

Iowa State - 12:00 PM ET Iowa State +17 500
Oklahoma State -

Marshall - 12:00 PM ET Marshall -18 500 LIGHTS OUT
Old Dominion -

Texas A&M - 12:00 PM ET Mississippi State -2.5 500 *****
Mississippi State -

Purdue - 12:00 PM ET Purdue +10 500
Illinois -

Southern Mississippi - 12:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi +17.5 500
Middle Tennessee -

Florida - 12:00 PM ET Florida +1.5 500 *****
Tennessee -

Ball State - 12:00 PM ET Army -2.5 500
Army -

Virginia Tech - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina +2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
North Carolina -

Eastern Michigan - 2:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan +25.5 500 *****
Akron -

North Texas - 2:30 PM ET North Texas +14 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Indiana -

Massachusetts - 2:30 PM ET Massachusetts +3.5 500 *****
Miami (Ohio) -

[StarDust Bum]

2ND SET OF GAMES:


Tulsa - 3:00 PM ET Colorado State -17.5 500 *****
Colorado State -

Wake Forest - 3:30 PM ET Florida State -37.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Florida State -

Wisconsin - 3:30 PM ET Northwestern +7.5 500 *****
Northwestern -

Alabama - 3:30 PM ET Mississippi +4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Mississippi -

Buffalo - 3:30 PM ET Bowling Green -3 500
Bowling Green -

North Carolina State - 3:30 PM ET Clemson -14 500 *****
Clemson -

Baylor - 3:30 PM ET Texas +14.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Texas -

Ohio - 3:30 PM ET Ohio +4 500
Central Michigan -

Oklahoma - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma -3.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Texas Christian -

New Mexico - 3:30 PM ET Texas-San Antonio -17 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Texas-San Antonio -

Stanford - 3:30 PM ET Stanford -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Notre Dame -

Navy - 3:30 PM ET Navy -3.5 500
Air Force -

Oregon State - 4:00 PM ET Colorado +5 500 *****
Colorado -

Vanderbilt - 4:00 PM ET Georgia -33.5 500 *****
Georgia -

Kansas - 4:00 PM ET West Virginia -27 500 TRIPLE PLAY
West Virginia -

Kent State - 5:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -25.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Northern Illinois -

South Alabama - 6:00 PM ET South Alabama -3 500
Appalachian State -

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

College football trends with Week 5 upon us........

-- Arizona State covered once in last five games as a road underdog.

-- Home side covered eight of last ten Illinois-Purdue games.

-- Ohio U covered twice in last ten games as a road underdog.

-- Texas Tech is 2-9 in last eleven games as a road underdog.

-- Navy is 9-1-1 vs spread in last 11 games with Air Force.

-- Rice covered 16 of last 23 games as a home favorite.

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) Arizona 31, Oregon 24—Big upset late Thursday night, shakes up the college football picture. Rich Rodriguez is a very good coach, who like Brady Hoke now, got run out of Michigan after a fairly short tenure, which is Arizona’s gain. His teams score a lot of points and they win.

This I will never forget and it says a lot about RichRod: he worked on a studio show at CBS College Sports after he got canned at Michigan. He is a good natured guy on air, but apparently was so beloved by his broadcast partners that when he left for Arizona, the first show they did without him, they left his chair empty on set during the show, part of which was a lengthy interview with him from Tucson.

You never see anything like that on TV. Quite to a tribute to someone they obviously hold in very high esteem.

12) This is graphic evidence that the Patriots are struggling on offense: On first drive of each half this season, eight drives, New England has run a total of 28 plays for 65 yards, with no points scored. No bueno.

11) Average number of replay challenges per team this baseball season: 34.4. Cubs (57) challenged the most plays, Oakland (26) challenged the least.

10) Thursday night NFL scores since Week 2: 26-6, 56-14, 45-14, 42-10. Football was not meant to be played on four days’ rest. If they insist on playing Thursday games, NFL should make it so teams coming off a bye play on Thursday, to help make their product more watchable. If I turn an NFL game off to watch a Central Florida-Houston college game, their product has a problem.

9) I got the IPhone6 Thursday; its very thin, lot lighter, much bigger screen. Apple Store is always an experience; I was in line (yes they still have lines!!!) behind the wife of a guy I played Little League with. Small world. Apple employees have always been nothing but nice to me and they’re very smart and helpful.

8) Good news: ESPN signed Dick Vitale thru 2017.
Bad news: ESPN signed Jay Bilas thru 2023.
More good news: My TV has a mute button.

7) Speaking of ESPN, they signed Jim Calhoun as a game analyst; he could become college hoop’s version of Ozzie Guillen, someone who has good stuff to say but you can’t understand a damn word he says.

6) Red Sox players got roughly $307K per man last year when they won the World Series. For guys who make the minimum salary, that’s a lot of money. To Clayton Kershaw or Albert Pujols? Not so much.

5) Speaking of which, 12 of the 25 guys on the Angels’ ALDS roster spent some time at AAA Salt Lake City this season. That surprised me.

4) Butler basketball coach Brandon Miller took a medical leave of absence this week; we hope he feels better soon and gets back on the bench. Butler’s upward move from the Horizon to the Big East hasn’t worked well, either for the school or the league.

3) Obscure stat of the day: Rod Smith holds the NFL record (849) for receptions by a player who wasn’t drafted. Wes Welker (847) figures to pass him this weekend. Welker wasn’t drafted, but how many guys like Welker (Decker, Amendola, Edelman) are on NFL rosters because they remind scouts of Welker?

2) Underrated bad job: window washer. You go up on this scaffolding, sometimes pretty high and wash windows on outside of tall buildings. It gets windier sometimes the higher you get and there’s not a lot of protection up there. Was watching guys do that the other day and I thanked the good Lord that wasn’t me up there.

1) Detroit Lions are leading the NFL in defense; last time the Lions led the NFL in defense for a whole season was 1962.

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Best Bets:


Louisiana State - 7:00 PM ET Auburn -7 500 *****
Auburn -

Alabama-Birmingham - 7:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +9.5 500 *****
Western Kentucky -

Hawaii - 7:00 PM ET Hawaii +6 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Rice -

Georgia State - 7:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -16 500
UL Lafayette -

Idaho - 7:00 PM ET Texas State -16.5 500 *****
Texas State -

UL Monroe - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas State -10.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Arkansas State -

Memphis - 7:00 PM ET Memphis +3 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Cincinnati -

Texas Tech - 7:00 PM ET Kansas State -14 500
Kansas State -

Toledo - 7:00 PM ET Western Michigan +6 500
Western Michigan -

Michigan 0 0th Michigan +2.5 500
Rutgers 0

Texas El Paso - 7:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -12 500
Louisiana Tech -

Arizona State - 7:30 PM ET Southern California -13.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Southern California -

Miami - 7:30 PM ET Georgia Tech -1.5 500
Georgia Tech -

South Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Kentucky +5 500 *****
Kentucky -

Pittsburgh - 7:30 PM ET Virginia -4.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Virginia -

UNLV - 8:00 PM ET UNLV +10 500
San Jose State -

Nebraska - 8:00 PM ET Michigan State -7 500 LIGHTS OUT
Michigan State -

Georgia Southern - 8:00 PM ET Georgia Southern -18.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
New Mexico State -

Utah - 10:30 PM ET Utah +13 500 TRIPLE PLAY
UCLA -

California - 10:30 PM ET Washington State -3.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Washington State -

Boise State - 10:30 PM ET Nevada +3 500
Nevada -