The Bum's October College Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Washington State at Stanford

October 9, 2014


With both teams coming off gut-wrenching defeats and in dire need of a win, Stanford welcomes Washington State to Palo Alto for a Pac-12 battle on Friday night.

As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Stanford (3-2 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) listed as a 17-point favorite with a total of 55. Gamblers can garner a +650 return by backing the Cougars on the money line (risk $100 to win $650).

David Shaw's team returns home after back-to-back road assignments. Stanford failed to cover the number in both contests, winning 20-13 at Washington as a 7.5-point 'chalk' before dropping a 17-14 decision at Notre Dame as a 2.5-point favorite.

Stanford took a 14-10 advantage in South Bend with 3:01 remaining on Remound Wright's 11-yard touchdown scamper. With the nation's top-ranked defense, Cardinal backers (like me) appeared to be in good shape. However, the Irish responded on its final drive with the help of a pass-interference call on a fourth-down play.

Facing yet another fourth down from the Stanford 23, Notre Dame QB Everett Golson found Ben Koyack for a 23-yard scoring strike with 61 ticks left to lift his team to victory.

Stanford QB Kevin Hogan threw a pair of interceptions, while the ground game was completely ineffective with just 47 yards on 32 attempts.

Washington State (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) produced 812 yards of total offense last week, yet somehow found a way to lose a 60-59 decision vs. California. The Cougars gave up a pair of kickoff returns for scores and missed a 19-yard field goal with 15 seconds left, prompting Mike Leach to fire his special-teams coach.

Senior QB Connor Halliday had a game for the ages, shattering an FBS record with 734 passing yards. Halliday, who leads the nation in passing yards (3,052), had six TD passes without an interception. For the season, he has completed 67.8 percent of his throws with a 26/7 TD-INT ratio.

Halliday's WRs had huge numbers against Cal, too. River Cracraft hauled in 11 receptions for 172 yards and three TDs, while Vince Mayle had 11 catches for 263 yards and one TD. Isiah Myers added nine grabs for 96 and a pair of scores.

Wazzu has covered the spread in six consecutive road underdog situations. Mike Leach's squad has been a double-digit underdog twice this season, hooking up their betting supporters both times. Just two weeks ago, the Cougars captured a 28-27 win at Utah when they were catching 13.5 points.

Stanford is 2-1 both SU and ATS as a home favorite this season, losing 13-10 to USC in a game it came up empty on points in seven drives that penetrated to at least the Trojans' 32 yard line. As a home 'chalk' during Shaw's four-year tenure, the Cardinal has gone 11-11 ATS.

This is Wazzu's lowest tally of the season. Totals have been an overall wash (3-3) for the Cougars this year, but they have seen the 'under' cash at a 2-0 clip in their road outings. Their games have averaged a combined score of 73.2 points per game.

The 'under' is 4-0 for Stanford this season with its games netting combined scores of 45, 23, 35 and 33 and 31 points. There was no total in the Cardinal's 45-0 season-opening victory over UC Davis. The average combined scores have been 33.4 PPG. This is the highest total Stanford has seen this year.

The 'under' is 8-3-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these Pac-12 rivals.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Stanford hasn't allowed an opponent to score 30 points in 28 consecutive games.

-- There are two other games on Friday's college football card. On ESPNU at 9:30 p.m. Eastern, San Diego St. is a 4.5-point road favorite at New Mexico. The Lobos are +175 on the money line.

-- UNLV will take on Fresno St. at Sam Boyd Stadium at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports Network. The Bulldogs are 10.5-point road 'chalk' at most spots. The Rebels won't have star WR Devante Davis and QB Blake Decker is a question mark.

-- Alabama won't have three key players at Arkansas. Kenyan Drake, who had six TDs going into last week's loss at Ole Miss, broke his leg and Oxford and is done for the season. Starting center Ryan Kelly is 'out' this week and LB Denzel Devall will miss the next 3-4 weeks.

-- Illinois QB Wes Lunt is out for the next 4-6 weeks after breaking his leg in a 38-27 home loss to Purdue. Lunt had a 13/3 TD-INT ratio so far this year. The Illini, 25.5-point underdogs at Wisconsin on Saturday, have limped to an abysmal 1-9 spread record as a road underdog on Tim Beckman's watch.

-- Louisville WR DeVante Parker will make his season debut Saturday at Clemson. Parker broke his left foot in late August. He finished 2013 with 55 receptions for 885 yards and 12 TDs, earning first-team All-AAC honors.

[StarDust Bum]

WSU looks for Pac-12 upset

October 9, 2014


Washington State Cougars (2-4) at Stanford Cardinal (3-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Stanford, -17 Total: 55

No. 25 Stanford looks to bounce back from a tough loss on Friday night when it hosts the high-octane passing attack of Washington State.

Both teams are coming off close defeats last week. Washington State lost to California, 60-59, despite QB Connor Halliday throwing for 734 yards and six touchdowns. Now the Cougars have to hit the road against a Stanford team that is coming off a 17-14 loss to Notre Dame.

Under coach Mike Leach, Washington State has done a good job of competing on the road as an underdog, going 6-0 ATS in that role over the past two seasons. However, last season at home, Washington State was blown out by Stanford, 55-17. The defense of the Cardinal stopped the Cougars' Air Raid offense, taking back two interceptions for touchdowns.

This game being on a Friday night will also be an advantage for Stanford, as the Cardinal have done well on six days rest (21-10 ATS) under coach David Shaw. Neither school has any significant new injuries to concern themselves with.

Connor Halliday (3,052 passing yards, 68% completions, 26 TD) is coming off one of the greatest performances in college football history, throwing for 734 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Cougars enter this game leading the nation in passing offense (523 YPG) and ranking 27th in scoring (38 PPG).

However, the run game is nearly non-existent, averaging only 56.5 YPG (125th in FBS). Jamal Morrow (49 carries, 187 yards) and Gerard Wicks (46 carries, 186 yards and 3 TD) both have gotten opportunities, but will need to continue to help Halliday out. While Halliday has been great under center, there are some very talented playmakers at the receiver position. Vince Mayle (51 catches, 703 yards and 6 TD), River Cracraft (43 catches, 576 yards and 6 TD), Isiah Myers (45 catches, 574 yards and 7 TD) and Dom Williams (24 catches, 496 yards and 6 TD) are all capable of having big games. Williams is the guy the Cougars look for to make the big play, as he leads the team by a wide margin with an average of 20.7 YPC. The Cougars have the talent on the offensive side of the ball, but it was the defense and special teams that let the team down last week.

The defensive unit gave up 589 yards of offense, including 527 passing yards in the loss. Kicker Quentin Breshears missed a 19-yard FG with 19 seconds left in the game, which would have given the Cougars the victory. CB Daquawn Brown (50 tackles, 7 pass breakups, 4 TFL) is the leading tackler on the 106th-ranked scoring defense in the country (35.2 PPG). LB Ivan McLennan (17 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) does a good job getting into the backfield, and he will have to do that in this game against the Cardinal.

Stanford had the game won against Notre Dame last Saturday, only to allow the Irish score on a 4th-and-11 play with less than a minute remaining. Despite that touchdown, the Cardinal are still the top scoring defense in the country (8.6 PPG). LBs Blake Martinez (37 tackles) and AJ Tarpley (33 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) are the heart and soul of this unit, and do a great job of flying around to the ball. LB Peter Kalambayi (16 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks) is an explosive athlete that gets into the backfield, and makes plays.

The Stanford defense stacks up favorably to any unit in the nation, but the offense must improve. QB Kevin Hogan (1,041 passing yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) is doesn't make many mistakes, but has not proven to be able to give the offense the big play when it needs one.

The Cardinal have been a dominant running team the past couple of seasons, but they rank only 89th in the country in rushing (141.8 YPG) and 91st in scoring (24.8 PPG) this year. RB Remound Wright (37 carries, 180 yards, 1 TD) leads the team in rushing, but Stanford right now is just not getting enough in the ground game.

The Cardinal have one of the best receiving options in the country in WR Ty Montgomery (30 catches, 287 yards, 3 TD), but have been unable to get him the ball out in space enough to show off his speed. For the Cardinal, it all starts with the running game, which then opens up the passing opportunities on the outside.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 7

October 9, 2014


Game of the Week

Minnesota (-4) vs. Northwestern – 12:00 PM ET

Before the season this matchup looked like a run-of-the-mill conference game between two average squads. Now it's a battle for supremacy in the West Division as the top two teams meet in Minnesota. Minnesota was off last week after ending a six game losing streak to Michigan on September 27th to claim the Little Brown Jug. The Gophers have a solid formula to make life miserable for opponents, leaning on a powerful rushing attack and a stout defense.They simply wore down Michigan to the tune of 206 rush yards on 47 carries while controlling the clock for +9 minutes TOP. Defensively the Gophers held Michigan to just 171 total yards, including 83 rush yards on 28 carries (3.0 YPC). QB Mitch Leidner wasn't spectacular (14-of-22 for 167 yards and 1 TD), but he managed the game well and didn't make any mistakes. This Saturday expect the Gophers will try to utilize their 24th ranked rush offense against this Northwestern defense that allowed 259 yards to Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon last week. Northwestern is off of a huge home win over Wisconsin. The Wildcats were outgained, but had an opportunistic defense (4 INT) and held UW QB's to just 12-of-29 passing and 138 yards. Offensively this squad is still a major work in progress, but it appears to be improving. QB Siemian has been a solid game manager the past couple of weeks, but is still completing just 57.4% of his passes with 3 TD and 4 INT this season. The rushing attack is off of a solid performance against UW (203 yards on 4.4 YPC) but still ranks 104th nationally in rush YPG. Even with an average offense; if the defense continues to make plays (10 forced turnovers the past three weeks) the Wildcats will continue to compete. Northwestern has won five of the last nine meetings with Minnesota outright, but the Gophers are 7-2 ATS over that span. Minnesota won @Northwestern last year, 20-17, as a 12-point underdog - continuing a trend of ATS wins by the underdog (6-1 ATS run by the 'dog). Minnesota has covered seven straight conference games. Northwestern is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games, but 3-7 ATS in the last 10 conference games.

Michigan State (-21) at Purdue – 2:30 PM ET

Michigan State dominated Nebraska for the better part of three quarters last Saturday. The Huskers made it close in the end, thanks to a 62-yard punt return for TD with 3:22 remaining that cut their deficit to 22-27, but MSU's defense held on when it mattered to notch the conference victory. On a day where completions didn't come easy for QB Cook (11-of-29 passing), it was the rushing attack that led the Spartans. RB Jeremy Langford was the workhorse with 29 carries 111 rush yards and 1 TD. Defensively MSU bottled up Nebraska star RB Ameer Abdullah. Though he finished with two short TD runs, he was limited to just 45 yards on 24 carries for a measly 1.8 YPC average. Overall the Huskers finished with their lowest output on the ground (47 yards) since 2007. The Spartans also made life miserable for Husker QB Amrstrong Jr, who finished 20-of-43 passing for 273 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT and was sacked five times and hit eight more. This week the Spartans travel to Purdue as heavy favorites. Purdue notched its first conference win since 2012 with a road victory over Illinois last week. The Boilers had their largest offensive output in nearly two years with 551 total yards and 38 points. QB Appleby got the call and was very efficient, tossing for 202 yards on 15-of-20 passing with 1 TD and 0 INT. Purdue also rushed for 349 yards on 45 carries (7.8 YPC) led by RB Hunt, who had 177 yards on the ground. Granted all of this came against an Illinois defense that ranks 115th in total defense and 107th in PPG allowed. The Boilers will have much tougher sledding against this 11th ranked MSU defense. MSU has won five straight against Purdue, but is 0-2-1 ATS in the last three in the series, winning by just seven points per game. The Boilers are 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six home meetings against MSU. Michigan State hasn't been a 20+ point road favorite since 1997 while Purdue is 0-2 ATS as a home 'dog of 20+ points or more since 2010.

Iowa (-3.5) vs. Indiana – 12:00 PM ET

The Hawkeyes were one of three B1G teams with a bye last week after an ugly win @Purdue on September 27th. Iowa had a +264 yard advantage and +13 first downs, but didn't take the lead until late in the 3rd quarter against the Boilers. They didn't put the nail in the coffin until 5:10 remaining in the 4th. Iowa rushed for 175 yards on just 3.4 YPC while QB Beathard wasn't very efficient against Purdue's defense (17-for-37 for 245 yards). Coach Ferentz has stated that he won't make a decision on who starts at QB until later this week but all indications point to both Rudock & Beathard splitting snaps early and getting a feel for which is more effective. With little rushing success to speak of this season for Iowa, the QB play will have to get better going further into conference play. If they can't find success through the air against this Indiana defense that has allowed 323 pass YPG and 11 TD over the last four games, then it's going to be a major problem for the Hawks. Indiana ended its non-conference slate with a win over North Texas last week. It was a solid bounce-back win for the Hoosiers after getting exposed both offensively and defensively against the Terrapins two weeks ago in the 22-point loss. QB Sudfeld had a very solid outing against UNT after a horrendous performance against Maryland (14-of-37 for 126 yards and an INT) with 230 yards and 3 TD on 23-of-29 completions. RB's Coleman & Roberts carved up the UNT rush defense as they combined for 252 rush yards on 31 carries with 3 TD. The Mean Green were held to just 348 total yards and a lot of those yards came after the game was out of reach. This offense gets another chance to prove that it can move the ball against the big boys as they face this Iowa 'D' that ranks 15th nationally in yards allowed and hasn't allowed an opponent to exceed 23 points. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 SU in the last five meetings, but they lost to Indiana in the most recent game (2012) and have failed to cover the last three matchups. Indiana is just 5-11 ATS as a road underdog between 3-and-10 points and just 2-7 ATS in the last nine B1G road games. Iowa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five B1G home games as a favorite.

Michigan (-1) vs. Penn State – 7:00 PM ET

No team needed last week's bye more than the Nittany Lions after their last game performance against Northwestern. The loss to Northwestern is a bit more understandable now after the Wildcats beat Wisconsin last week, but it was still a troubling loss for PSU. Northwestern completely dominated the previously undefeated Nittany Lions. The Wildcats held PSU to just 50 rush yards on 2.0 YPC and 14 first downs. And unlike previous contests where QB Hackenberg bailed out a struggling PSU offense, he was inefficient and unproductive against Northwestern. He completed just 22-of-45 passes for 216 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT as PSU failed to reach the end zone. PSU's rush offense has now been rendered ineffective four of its five games this season as it is averaging just 3.1 YPC and ranks 116th in rush YPG. The defense remains elite but unless this offensive line starts opening up holes for the running game and creating some more time in the pocket for Hackenberg, this offense is going to struggle. They had an extra week off to work on their issues and to prepare for the struggling Wolverines. Just when it appears that it can't get any worse for Michigan, it does. Rutgers handed Michigan its third straight loss and fourth overall. Rutgers QB Nova tossed for 404 yards and 3 scores and Michigan's go-ahead field goal attempt late in the 4th quarter was blocked, allowing Rutgers to run out the clock and preserve the 26-24 victory. The running of Derrick Green was the only consistent thing about this offense, but now he's out for the year with an injury as Michigan will be challenged to replace his production this week against PSU's No. 2 ranked rush defense. QB Devin Gardner will be forced to make plays, something he has struggled with mightily this season. He looked dynamic at times last week against Rutgers in his return to the starting lineup, but he threw another costly interception. Defensively the Wolverines feature one of the top units in the country, but their efforts on defense are repeatedly offset by their inefficiencies on offense. It will take a substantial turnaround to be bowl eligible at the end of the season. After losing nine straight to the Wolverines from 1997-2007, Penn State is 4-0 SU & ATS in the last four meetings - winning by an average of 16.8 PPG. Michigan is just 8-16 ATS in its last 24 Big Ten home games. Penn State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games, but the Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS off of their last nine SU losses.

Wisconsin (-25.5) vs. Illinois – 12:00 PM ET

Running back Melvin Gordon is a stud, the offensive line is elite, and the defense is great. There are a lot of things to like about this Wisconsin Badgers squad; quarterback play is not one of them - and unfortunately the erratic play at the QB position continues to bring this team down. Last week RB Gordon rushed for a career-high 259 yards and this defense limited Northwestern to just 385 yards. But QB's McEvoy & Stave combined for 12-of-29 passing for just 138 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT - two of which came in the end zone when the Badgers were threatening to score. Coach Anderson has stated that both Stave and McEvoy will play this week against Illinois, and he'll likely go with the "hot" hand. Or whoever is making fewer mistakes. Despite the bad QB play, the defense continues to step up and put this team in position to win. Wisconsin ranks 15th against the pass, 23rd against the run, and 11th in scoring defense. Expect the Badgers to ride RB Gordon - who is 3rd nationally in rushing - against this Illini defense that has allowed 807 rush yards and 9 rush TD in their last two games against Nebraska & Purdue. If they can get Gordon and Co. going on the ground, that should be enough to open some holes in the passing game for Stave & McEvoy to gain some confidence. Speaking of quarterback issues, Illinois starting QB Wes Lunt will be out 4-6 weeks with a broken leg he suffered in Illinois' home loss to Purdue last week. Lunt has 13 TD and just 3 INT this season while completing 66.1% of his passes. Now the Illini will go with Reilly O'Toole, who has 1 TD and 4 INT in limited work this season. Without Lunt leading this offense, we're not sure where the points will come from. The rushing attack has sputtered to just 96.3 rush YPG and O'Toole is a major downgrade from Lunt under center. Illinois' defense has allowed 35+ points in each of its last five games and ranks at or near the bottom in every major defensive statistical category. Wisconsin has won four straight vs. the Illini and won last year's meeting, 56-32. The Badgers rushed for 289 yards and 6 TD in that game led by Melvin Gordon (142 yds, 3 TD). Illinois is 1-13 SU & 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games with a -20.4 PPG margin in those 14 games.

Ohio State - Bye Week

After a poor performance against Virginia Tech in which he completed 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT, OSU's J.T. Barrett has completed 75.2% of his passes for 303 YPG with 14 TD and just 1 INT in the last three games. He was masterful in OSU's win over Maryland last week, finishing 18-of-23 for 267 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT while scoring 1 rush TD for good measure. The Bucks have now scored 50+ points in three consecutive games as this young offense grows more and more comfortable in Urban Meyer's scheme. Defensively the Buckeyes completely shutdown the Terps. They allowed Maryland QB's to complete just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. That's a promising development after allowing 352 pass yards and 4 TD to Cincinnati in the prior game. Opponents have had a tough time rushing against this Ohio State defensive front, gaining just 61 YPG on fewer than 3.0 YPC the last three games; so if the pass-defense continues to improve, they will become one of the most feared units in the country. They get this Saturday off before hosting Rutgers on October 18th.

Nebraska - Bye Week

Give Nebraska credit for not quitting against Michigan State last Saturday in a game where seemingly nothing was going right for the Huskers for the better part of three quarters. Down 3-27 in the 4th quarter, Nebraska fought back and cut the deficit to 22-27 with 3:22 remaining. The Huskers were driving with under a minute remaining before an MSU INT put the game away for good. It was tough sledding all game long for star RB Ameer Abdullah, who gained just 45 rush yards on 24 carries. QB Armstrong Jr. was constantly under pressure and completed just 20-of-43 passes for 273 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. Nebraska's defense played quite well against the Spartans save the three long TD scores. MSU's QB Cook completed just 11-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. And if you take away the two long TD runs by MSU, Nebraska allowed just 2.9 YPC to the Spartans. All in all, there are much worse ways to lose and Nebraska heads into the bye week knowing it can compete with the B1G elite. Next up is a road trip to Evanston to face the Wildcats of Northwestern.

Rutgers - Bye Week

The Scarlet Knights blocked a Michigan field goal late in the 4th quarter and were able to run out the clock for their first conference victory as a member of the B1G. They celebrated by storming the field at High Point Solutions Stadium and tearing down the goalpost. The win was Rutgers' third straight and put the Scarlet Knights at a B1G-best 5-1 record overall. It was a hard fought battle with the reeling Wolverines, but give QB Nova credit for stepping up with 404 pass yards and 3 TD when the running game was seemingly non-existant (74 yards on 2.5 YPC). There is still plenty left to improve for Kyle Flood and his staff this week as two road games loom at OSU next week and at Nebraska on October 25th.

Maryland - Bye Week

The Terrapins ran into a buzzsaw last Saturday against OSU. The Buckeyes scored early and often and rode a 31-10 halftime lead into a 52-24 victory. Maryland QB's Brown & Rowe completed just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. Coach Edsall stated that there is absolutely no quarterback controversy and that CJ Brown will be the starter when Maryland returns to the field despite being replaced at halftime against OSU. It'd help whoever is under center if the Terps could get some semblance of a rushing attack. They managed just 66 rush yards on 24 carries (2.8 YPC) against the Bucks and now rank 90th nationally in rush YPG. They'll work on that, along with solving their defensive issues (106th against the run, 99th in total defense) during their bye week before hosting Iowa on October 18th.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

10- 2 - 1........................*****

6 - 4..............................DOUBLE PLAY

5- 7...............................TRIPLE PLAY

1 - 5........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


RATED PLAYS AND OPINIONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 34-*27-*2 55.74% +2150


Thursday, October 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Brigham Young - 7:30 PM ET Central Florida -3 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Central Florida - Over 44.5 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

11- 2 - 1........................*****

7 - 4..............................DOUBLE PLAY

5- 7...............................TRIPLE PLAY

1 - 5........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


RATED PLAYS AND OPINIONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/09/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 36-*27-*2 57.14% +3150

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

College football trends for Week 6.......

-- Alabama covered five of last six games with Arkansas.

-- TCU covered eight of last ten as a road underdog.

-- Washington State covered its last six Pac-12 road games.

-- Fresno State won last ten games with UNLV by an average score of 38-16.

-- Minnesota covered seven of last nine games with Northwestern; road team has covered 15 of last 17 series games.

-- Georgia Tech is 9-2-1 in last 12 games as a home favorite.

**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend.......

13) Patriots-Bills play for first place in AFC East; when was last time Buffalo was playing for first place any time after Week 2?

12) Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze has a tough job, taking his Rebels to Texas A&M the week after they upset Alabama and people took the goalposts down Main Street. Peaks and valleys, people.

11) Home team won all five Atlanta games so far this season; Falcons are 2-0 at home. Devin Hester welcomes his old team, the Bears to the Georgia Dome Sunday, after Chicago fumbled away their last game, at Carolina.

10) Underdogs are 8-1 vs spread in last nine USC-Arizona games, with last seven all decided by 7 or less points. Trojans visit Tucson this week; RichRod has his Wildcats scoring lot of points.

9) Steelers visit Cleveland in first rematch of NFL season; every Browns game was decided in last 1:09 of play- they’ve been most interesting team in NFL so far.

8) Auburn-Miss State is suddenly a game with national implications, after State trounced Texas A&M last week. Gus Malzahn’s offense has taken the college game by storm; not too long ago he was a high school coach in Arkansas.

7) ALCS features a Showalter-Yost manager mismatch that’s like comparing Kate Upton to Roseanne Barr; not close. Players win games, but hard to believe Orioles don’t have a significant edge in strategy in this 7-game series.

6) Oregon-UCLA was a marquee matchup for FOX until both teams got beat last week; still a big game in Pac-12. Wasn’t impressed by Duck QB Mariota last week; Arizona defender just took ball out of his hand on last drive last week- that should never happen.

5) 4-1 Cowboys had to use silent count at home last week, with lot of Houston fans in their stadium; now they’ll really have to use it, playing in raucous Seattle stadium, where Seahawks covered 14 of last 19 home games. Can Dallas run ball against that defense?

4) Alabama bludgeoned Arkansas 52-0 in each of last two meetings; Razorbacks are better this year, and Crimson Tide is off loss at Ole Miss. Harder for young QBs to excel on road; can Bielema get a statement for his rebuilding Hogs here?

3) Good Sunday night game, Giants-Eagles. Philly allowed 27+ points in each of last four games, but they’re still 4-1. Giants won last three games, scoring 30+ points in all three games- rumors of Coughlin’s demise have apparently been exaggerated.

2) Texas Tech already fired its defensive coordinator this year, now West Virginia comes to Lubbock with its high-powered attack. None of West Virginia's road trips are short; this is a game they need to win.

1) Rams are honoring ’99 Super Bowl champs Monday night, with rival 49ers in town. Young St Louis team has to learn how to win; their talent level isn’t deficient anymore, but their maturity level is. 49ers have only two TDs on last eight red zone drives.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, October 10

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Game of the Day: Washington State at Stanford
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Washington State Cougars at Stanford Cardinal (-17, 52.5)

The nation’s top-ranked passing offense will take on the No. 2 pass defense when Washington State travels to No. 22 Stanford for a Pac-12 matchup Friday night. The Cougars average 523 passing yards and fresh off a 60-59 loss to California in which Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday broke an NCAA record with 734 passing yards while throwing six touchdowns. The Cardinal are surrendering an average of 107.4 yards through the air this season and haven’t allowed at least 30 points in 27 straight games, the longest active streak in the FBS.

The Cougars have four wide receivers with at least six touchdown receptions this season led by Vince Mayle, who broke the program record in the California game by accumulating 263 receiving yards. Stanford will need to find a way to ratchet up its running game after totaling 47 rushing yards in a 17-14 loss last week to No. 5 Notre Dame, its fewest since 2007. Remound Wright will likely continue as the starting running back for Stanford, but Barry Sanders could be in line for extra carries if Wright continues to struggle.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady with Stanford as 17-point home favorites. The total has been bet down considerably from 55 to 52.5.

INJURY REPORT: Washington State - WR Gabe Marks (out indefinitely, head). Stanford - DT Ikenna Nwafor (out for season, undisclosed).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a great night for football with temperatures in the low 70s with low humidity. There will be a slight five mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeast end zone.

ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (2-4, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U): The Cougars gave up two kickoff returns for touchdowns against California and a punt return for a score the week before in another one-point loss to Utah, leading to the dismissal of special teams coach Erik Russell. Quentin Breshears also missed a 19-yard field goal with 15 seconds left against the Golden Bears, which would have lifted Washington State to the win. Breshears also missed a 29-yarder last month in a seven-point loss to No. 11 Oregon.

ABOUT STANFORD (3-2, 2-3 ATS, 0-4 O/U): Ty Montgomery has been kept in check the last two games and that’s one of the reasons the Cardinal has had trouble moving the ball. The 6-2, 215-pound wide receiver caught 22 passes through the first three games but has totaled just four in each of the last two, gaining less than 30 yards in both games. He remains on pace to better last season’s total of 61 catches but is averaging just 9.6 yards a reception and has scored three touchdowns, well off the 15.7 average and 10 scores he finished with last season.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.
* Washington State is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Stanford.

CONSENSUS: Just over 57 percent of wagers are backing Washington State at +17.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Consensus Picks ( AS OF 2:30 PACIFIC TIME )

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

9:00 PM Washington State +15.5 1215 58.30% Stanford -15.5 869 41.70% View View

9:30 PM San Diego State -3.5 1069 59.99% New Mexico +3.5 713 40.01% View View

10:00 PM Fresno State -9.5 1141 62.11% UNLV +9.5 696 37.89% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

10:00 PM Fresno State 65.5 576 49.06% UNLV 65.5 598 50.94% View View

9:30 PM San Diego State 53.5 687 58.32% New Mexico 53.5 491 41.68% View View

9:00 PM Washington State 52.5 790 61.77% Stanford 52.5 489 38.23% View View

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ACC Report - Week 7

October 10, 2014

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 3-2 0-1 3-2 2-2-1

Clemson 3-2 2-1 4-1 3-2

Duke 4-1 0-1 2-2-1 1-3

Florida State 5-0 3-0 1-4 2-3

Georgia Tech 5-0 2-0 3-2 3-2

Louisville 5-1 3-1 4-2 1-5

Miami (Fla.) 3-3 1-2 2-4 2-4

North Carolina 2-3 0-3 0-5 2-2

North Carolina State 4-2 0-2 3-3 3-3

Pittsburgh 3-3 1-1 2-3-1 2-3-1

Syracuse 2-3 0-1 1-4 1-3-1

Virginia 4-2 2-0 5-0-1 3-3

Virginia Tech 4-2 1-1 3-3 2-3

Wake Forest 2-4 0-2 3-3 1-5


Cincinnati at Miami, Fla. (ESPN3, 12:00p.m. ET)

This is a must-win game for Al Golden and the Hurricanes, who have been decent at home at 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, but they're abysmal on the road. They can't afford things to go south on their home turf, too. Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel (ribs) left last week's game due to bruised ribs, and the official word is that he will be a game-time decision. If he cannot go, former starter Munchie Legaux and Jarred Evans will likely see time under center. The bigger issue is that the Bearcats lost leading rusher RB Hosey Williams (knee) last week, too. He will miss this game, and likely a few more. The Hurricanes are favored by more than two touchdowns, but with all the injuries on the Cincinnati side of the ball, and their issues on defense, it might be warranted.

Florida State at Syracuse (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Seminoles rolls into the Carrier Dome having covered five of their past seven ACC games, including a 43-3 stomping of Wake Forest last weekend. That was actually FSU's first cover of the season in five tries, but shows what they can do against a marginal team. FSU still needs to prove itself on the road, however, as the defending champs are just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 road trips. However, Syracuse hasn't been very good on the road or at home, nearly losing to FCS Villanova in the opening weekend, and having its doors blown off in a neutral-site game against Notre Dame, the best team they've faced to date. In fact, 'Cuse is 1-4 ATS in the past five overall, 1-6 ATS in the past seven as a double-digit home dog and 0-4 ATS in the past four home games overall.

Duke at Georgia Tech (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

This might be the game of the week in the ACC, and certainly is criticial in the Coastal Division. The defending Coastal champion Blue Devils are already 0-1 with a loss at Miami, and can ill-afford another setback. The Yellow Jackets look to sting Duke and keep their record unblemished. Georgia Tech is ranked for the first time in nearly three seasons, and 5-0 for just the fifth time since 1957. While it's not hard enough for Duke football this week, they had eight to 10 players become sick last week, forcing the school to bring in a cleaning crew to scrub the team's facilities. There were plenty of early takers for Duke when the line opened near six, but it has quickly fallen to three. It's interesting, too, because the favorite is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, and Duke is just 2-8 ATS in the past 10 against Georgia Tech, and 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Atlanta. The Ramblin' Wreck look like a solid play given their dominance in the series.

Louisville at Clemson (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)

Louisville gets its first taste of Death Valley as an ACC member, and they look to keep helping bettors on the road. The Cardinals are 21-8 ATS in their past 29 road games, and a whopping 15-4 ATS in the past 19 conference games, although a majority of that impressive streak was in the substantially weaker AAC and Big East. Clemson is working on its own impressive streak, going 5-0 ATS in the past five at home, including an absolute dismantling of North Carolina State last weekend. Clemson is also 22-8 ATS in their past 30 conference games, matching Louisville in that regard. The play might be the under here, as it has cashed in five of six for Louisville this season. In fact, the under is 17-5 in the past 22 for the Cards. For Clemson, the over is 5-2 in the past seven ACC games, but 18-7 in their past 25 October tilts, and 4-0 in their past four following a straight-up win.

Boston College at North Carolina State (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

So much for that impressive 4-0 start for NC State, and their near-miss against Florida State. The Wolfpack had their clocks cleaned in Clemson by a 41-0 count. Meanwhile, Boston College comes in rested after two weeks off, and champing at the bit after a narrow home loss to Colorado State Sept. 27 in their previous game. These will be two hungry teams out to prove the last time we saw them was an exception, not the rule. The Eagles are a dismal 3-10 ATS in the past 13 road games, but the Pack is just 2-6 ATS in the past eight at home, and 1-5 ATS in the past six ACC games. The play here might be the over, as it is 4-0-1 in BC's past five conference games, and 8-2-1 in the past 11 overall. Plus, the over is 4-1-1 in their past five games against a team with a winning overall record. For State, the over is 4-1 in their past five ACC battles, and 7-3 in the past 10 overall, although they helped that streak out none by getting blanked last week for the first time since 2011.

North Carolina at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m.)

The Tar Heels have been unable to stop anyone lately, dropping three straight games while giving up a whopping 51.3 points per game during the stretch. That has to make Notre Dame QB Everett Golson salivate, as he looks to improve his growing Heisman resume. These teams have actually met 18 times in the past, with Notre Dame winning 16 of the meetings, including all 11 in the shadows of 'Touchdown Jesus'. The Heels are 17-point dogs in this one, and that might be generous the way they've been going. They're 3-10 ATS in the past 13 road games, 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark, and 0-5 ATS in the past five overall. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in the past five, and 33-16-2 ATS in their past 51 overall in October.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's SEC Tip Sheet

October 9, 2014


**Auburn at Mississippi State**

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Auburn (5-0 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 64. Gamblers can take the Bulldogs to win outright for a +125 return (risk $100 to win $125).

-- Mississippi State (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) has won eight consecutive games dating back to its three-game winning streak to close the 2013 campaign. The Bulldogs dealt out woodshed treatment to previously-unbeaten Texas A&M in Starkville last week, cruising to a 48-31 win as 2.5-point home favorites. Junior quarterback Dak Prescott was the catalyst, accounting for five touchdowns and 356 all-purpose yards. He completed 20-of-26 throws for 266 yards and two TDs without an interception. Prescott also had 77 rushing yards on 11 carries and caught a pass for 11 yards. We should also note that MSU played without a pair of key starters, including four-year starting center Dillon Day and top WR Jameon Lewis, both of whom are set to return Saturday.

-- Auburn ended a three-game losing streak to LSU by blasting the visitors 41-7 as a seven-point home favorite on The Plains. Nick Marshall produced 326 yards (207 passing, 119 rushing) and four TDs, while WR Sammie Coates finally broke out of a season-long slump with four receptions for 144 yards and one TD. AU's offense generated 566 yards of total offense and Ellis Johnson's defense limited LSU to 280 total yards.

-- Prescott and Marshall have the shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy according to Sportsbook.ag this week. Prescott has a 13/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and six rushing scores. He has 1,223 yards passing, 455 rushing yards and two catches for 35 yards and one TD.

-- Marshall is completing 57.9 percent of his passes for 755 yards with an 8/1 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed 58 times for 392 yards and four scores. The AU aerial attack has been helped by the arrival of juco transfer Duke Williams, who has 25 catches for 385 yards and three TDs. Cameron Artis-Payne has rushed for a team-high 594 yards and five TDs.

-- Mississippi St. has a workhorse RB enjoying a breakout season as well. His name is Josh Robinson, who has 592 rushing yards, six rushing scores and a 7.5 yards-per-carry average.

-- When these teams met at Auburn last year, Marshall had to throw an 11-yard TD pass to C.J. Uzomah with 10 seconds remaining to lift the Tigers to a 24-20 win as 6.5-point home favorites. Mississippi St. held AU to a season-low 120 rushing yards, 93 yards below its second-worst rushing performance last year (213 at LSU). The Bulldogs had taken a 20-14 advantage in the third quarter thanks to a pair of Prescott TD runs. Marshall was intercepted twice in this game.

-- During Dan Mullen's six-year tenure, Mississippi St. owns a 7-7 spread record in 14 games as a home underdog.

-- As a road favorite on Gus Malzahn's watch, Auburn is 2-1 ATS. The non-cover came in a 20-14 win at Kansas St. as a seven-point 'chalk' on Sept. 18. -- The 'over' is 3-2 overall for Mississippi St., 2-1 in its home games. The Bulldogs have seen their combined scores average 62.0 points per game.

-- The 'over' is 3-2 for AU, but the 'under' cashed in its lone road assignment. The Tigers' games have averaged combined scores of 56.4 PPG.

-- CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Ole Miss at Texas A&M**

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had Texas A&M (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) favored by two with the total in the 63-64 range.

-- Ole Miss (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS) falls into a vintage letdown situation after posting one of the biggest wins in school history. The Rebels rallied to clip Alabama 23-17 as four-point home underdogs, prompting their fan base to rush the field and take the goal posts for a tour through Oxford.

-- Senior QB Bo Wallace led his team to victory by throwing three TD passes in the second half. His 34-yard scoring strike to Vince Sanders pulled the game into a 17-17 tie with 5:29 left. Then after recovering an Alabama fumble on the ensuing kick return, Wallace found Jaylen Walton for a 10-yard TD pass and the lead with 2:54 remaining. The Rebels secured the victory when Senquez Golson intercepted a Blake Sims pass in the back of the end zone.

-- Wallace has a 14/6 TD-INT ratio with four pass catchers with at least 246 yards receiving. Sophomore LaQuon Treadwell is his favorite target with 25 receptions for 362 yards and four TDs. -- In last week's loss at Mississippi St., Texas A&M quarterback Kenny Hill was intercepted three times. The Dallas Southlake High School product had only been picked off twice in the five previous games. Hill still threw for four TDs against the Bulldogs and has an impressive 21/5 TD-INT ratio. He didn't have his leading pass catcher Malcolme Kennedy (33 receptions for 378 yards and two TDs), who was a late scratch against MSU due to a shoulder injury. Kennedy is 'probable' vs. Ole Miss.

-- Texas A&M has compiled a 7-7 spread record as a home favorite during Kevin Sumlin's three-year tenure. The Aggies are 1-1 ATS in such spots this year. They are back at Kyle Field for the first time since beating Rice by a 38-10 count on Sept. 13.

-- Ole Miss has a 4-2 spread record as a road underdog on Hugh Freeze's watch.

-- One of the Rebels' top players in the secondary, Trae Elston, is suspended for the first half after the SEC ruled that he attempted to stomp on an Alabama player last week.

-- These schools have played a pair of epic classics that both went to the wire the last two seasons. Like Ole Miss had to play at Alabama in back-to-back years in 2012 and '13, Texas A&M had to play in Oxford the last two seasons. After winning a 30-27 decision in '12, the Aggies captured a 41-38 triumph in a thriller last year. We should note that the Rebels took the cash in both instances, covering last season as seven-point home underdogs. Johnny Manziel tied the game at 38-38 with a wild six-yard scramble that covered nearly the entire field before he successfully dove for the pylon. That score came with just over three minutes left and after getting the ball back, Manziel marched his team into field-goal range. Josh Lambo's 33-yard kick as time expired lifted A&M to a 41-38 victory in one of college football's best games in 2013.

-- The 'under' is 4-1 for Ole Miss, 1-0 in its only previous road trip.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 for A&M at home this year, 3-3 overall.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Top Action

October 9, 2014


AUBURN TIGERS (5-0) at MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (5-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Auburn -3, Total: 63

Two of the best teams in the nation collide on Saturday afternoon when No. 2 Auburn visits No. 3 Mississippi State.

Auburn has put itself in a great position to compete for the national title after reeling off five consecutive SU victories (3-2 ATS) to start the 2014 campaign. The Tigers have had two big tests in the early going, edging Kansas State by a 20-14 score as seven-point favorites while proving to be the better team last week against LSU as they dominated with a 41-7 blowout; easily covering the 6.5-point spread it was giving. In that contest, Auburn recorded 566 total yards of offense while its defense was stingy; holding LSU to an 0-for-13 mark on third down and giving up only 142 passing yards. Mississippi State also jumped into the college football playoff picture with two straight wins over top-10 programs. First it went to LSU and pulled off the upset with a 34-29 win as touchdown underdogs, then followed that up with a very impressive performance against Texas A&M in which it dropped 48 points on the Aggies and won by 17 as 2.5-point favorites at home. The victory brought the Bulldogs to 4-1 ATS on the season as they forced three turnovers in a contest where the two teams combined for 1,085 total yards of offense.

This has been a fun matchup to watch over the past few years, and while Auburn has dominated SU since 2008 (5-1), they are an even 3-3 ATS in that timeframe. Last season the Tigers were able to pull out a 24-20 win as 6.5-point favorites by scoring a touchdown in the final 10 seconds of the game. QB Dak Prescott dominated on the ground for the Bulldogs with 133 yards and two touchdowns, but it was not enough, as QB Nick Marshall threw for 339 yards and 2 TD, including the game-winner. Trends show that Auburn is 10-0 ATS after playing a conference game in the past two seasons, while Mississippi State is 18-7 ATS (72%) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight games since 1992. There are no significant injuries going into this game for either team.

Auburn has posted some solid offensive numbers so far, getting 497.2 YPG of total offense per game (23rd in FBS) while being dominant on the ground (268 rush YPG, 14th in nation) and scoring 42.0 PPG (15th in FBS). Their leader is dual-threat QB Nick Marshall (755 pass yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) who has limited turnovers in the passing game while averaging 22.3 passing attempts per game. His real threat comes from his ability to run though, and has totaled 392 yards (6.8 YPC) with four touchdowns on the ground while surpassing the century mark in three of the past four contests. Joining him in the strong rushing attack is HB Cameron Artis-Payne (594 rush yards, 5 TD) who has been a workhorse with at least 22 carries in four of his five games while averaging 5.4 YPC. Last week against LSU, Artis-Payne had season highs in both rushing yards (126) and receiving yards (35), but failed to get into the end zone.

WR D’haquille Williams (25 rec., 385 yards, 3 TD) has 15 more receptions than any other Tigers wideout despite recording a mere two catches in each of his past two games. The defense has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its five contests, as the team is allowing an average of 306.6 YPG to their opponents (14th in FBS). LB Cassanova McKinzy (35 tackles, 1 sack) leads this defense that has a tough task ahead with a trip to Starkville.

Mississippi State has run all over its opponents with 274.4 YPG on the ground (13th in FBS) while also ranking 43rd in FBS passing (269.2 YPG), leading to 42.6 PPG (13th in nation). QB Dak Prescott (1,232 pass yards, 13 TD, 2 INT) has improved in each of the past three seasons and has thrown for at least 200 yards in all of the games this season while throwing five touchdowns and zero interceptions in the past three contests. His YPA has jumped to an impressive 10.10 this year, while he continues to do a lot of damage in the run game, rushing for 455 yards (5.4 YPC) and six touchdowns on the season while scoring at least 1 TD in each of the past four games. He was also responsible for five touchdowns (2 passing, 3 rushing) in the big 48-31 victory over Texas A&M last week. The other important player in the backfield is HB Josh Robinson who has run for 592 yards (7.5 YPC) and 6 TD, while picking up at least 75 yards in each game so far.

Both WRs De’Runnya Wilson (247 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Jameon Lewis (223 rec. yards, 1 TD) have looked impressive in the passing game, as nine different players have caught touchdown passes. The defense has allowed 19.4 PPG to its opposition (22nd in nation) while being led by LB Benardrick McKinney (36 tackles, 6 TFL, 3 sacks).

OREGON DUCKS (4-1) at UCLA BRUINS (4-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -1.5 Total: 69.5

Two Pac-12 teams with playoff aspirations look to bounce back from surprising home losses as No. 12 Oregon travels to No. 18 UCLA on Saturday.

The Ducks are trying to shake off losing to Arizona 31-24 last Thursday night, and they have not lost consecutive games since November 15, 2007, when they ended up losing three straight games. Oregon has been very good after losing at home, going 20-6 ATS in such games. The UCLA loss was equally as stunning, as quarterback Brett Hundley was sacked 10 times in the 30-28 home defeat to Utah. Those 10 sacks were the highest number for any Division I quarterback in nearly two years. Both of these teams have shown the ability to put up a lot of points, and if this turns into a shootout, the Bruins may be in good shape. UCLA is 17-6 ATS when scoring at least 28 points in the past three seasons, and is a perfect 7-0 ATS when scoring 35 or more points.

This matchup of two teams that are relatively injury-free, could very easily could be an elimination game from the college football playoff. The Ducks have beaten the Bruins five straight times by an average score of 41 to 18, but four of those games were in Eugene. However, in their past eight road games in this series since 1995, the Ducks are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS.

The Ducks still have one of the best offenses in the country, as the unit ranks 9th in scoring (43.6 PPG), 16th in passing (324.4 YPG) and 35th in rushing (209 YPG). QB Marcus Mariota (1,411 pass yards, 71% completions, 15 TD) has still has not thrown an interception, and has shown he can still make plays with his legs (215 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 3 TD). However, there are problems with the team and it starts with the offensive line. The unit had major problems blocking Arizona's front four, and Mariota was under pressure for most of the night. In the loss to the Wildcats, Mariota rushed for only one yard, which was 41 yards less than his next lowest output on the season. Freshman RB Royce Freeman (67 carries, 346 yards, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD) is the leading rusher on the team. This is another area where the struggles of the offensive line is hurting, as the Ducks are not getting the big plays that they are accustomed to getting. While the rushing attack isn’t providing the team with the normal big plays, there are some playmakers at receiver. WR Devon Allen (19 catches, 377 yards, 6 TD) has shown that he is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and WR Keanon Lowe (17 catches, 266 yards, 4 TD) is another guy that can get behind the defense for a touchdown. Oregon is currently averaging 14.9 yards per completion, which should force the Bruins to keep an extra defender playing deep.

The defense has played well at times, but has made some crucial mistakes at the end of games. Last week, the unit appeared to be getting off the field late in the game, but an unsportsmanlike penalty gave the Wildcats a fresh set of downs. Sophomore DB Reggie Daniels (35 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF) is the leading tackler on a defense that relies heavily on its speed. Senior CB Erick Dargan (27 tackles, 3 INT, 1.5 TFL) has been very good for the Ducks this year, as opposing quarterbacks try and avoid throwing at CB Ife Ekpre-Olomu (26 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT). If those cornerbacks can do a good job of covering the Bruins wide receivers, then there should be opportunities for LB Tyson Coleman (13 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 2 sacks) and DL Arik Armsted (17 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 sack) to pressure QB Brett Hundley.

The Bruins had multiple opportunities to get the win against the Utes, but just could not finish it in the end. QB Brett Hundley (1,310 pass yards, 71% completions, 10.5 YPA, 9 TD, 2 INT) is very similar to Mariota, as he can also get out and do some things with his legs (122 rush yards, 2 TD). However, after leading the team in rushing last season, Hundley has stayed in the pocket much more this year. The 10 sacks last week by Utah was a combination of many things. From the offensive line struggling, to wide receivers not getting open, to even Hundley holding the ball too long, everyone was at fault on the numbers of sacks. For the Bruins to get back on track, RB Paul Perkins (94 carries, 540 yards, 5.7 YPC, 3 TD) must give UCLA something from the running game. At wide receiver, Jordan Payton (31 catches, 491 yards, 3 TD) is Hundley's top target. Payton is a physical receiver that can also get behind his defender for the big play. Payton must do a better job of getting open against a tough Oregon secondary, as the Ducks may be blitzing after seeing the Utes performance last week.

The Bruins defense has a lot of talent on it, led by LBs Eric Kendricks (58 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 INT) and Myles Jack (38 tackles, 3 pass breakups, 1 TFL). This is a unit that has a lot of speed, but at times, can over-pursue. If the defense can stick to the fundamentals, then the unit has a good chance of at least containing the Ducks offense. Special teams also doomed the Bruins last week, as kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn missed not one, but two field goals at the end of the game that could have given UCLA the win. Oregon will score some points, so the Bruins can’t leave points on the field with missed field goals.

TCU HORNED FROGS (4-0) at BAYLOR BEARS (5-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baylor -7.5, Total: 66.5

No. 9 TCU looks to continue its impressive run this season when it makes the short trip to Waco to take on No. 5 Baylor in a Big 12 showdown.

The Horned Frogs were unranked two weeks ago, but are now in the top-10 after a 56-0 laugher over SMU followed by defeating No. 4 Oklahoma, 37-33, last Saturday. With the win, TCU moved up to No. 9, making this only the second matchup ever at Waco among top-10 teams. The Frogs have not won a road game against a ranked team since defeating No. 18 Texas in 2012, but QB Trevone Boykin has emerged into one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, racking up 395 total yards and a pair of touchdown passes versus the Sooners. The Bears are coming off a 28-7 victory against Texas, despite the offense not clicking on all cylinders. QB Bryce Petty only threw for 111 yards, the least amount of yards during his time as the starting quarterback at Baylor.

The Bears have been terrific against ranked teams in Waco under coach Art Briles, winning their past six games against top 25 foes. They are also 9-0 ATS at home over the past two seasons with an average score of 60 to 11 in that timeframe, but dating back to 1992, the Bears are 6-21 ATS (22%) versus good passing defenses (allowing a completion percentage of 48% or better). With Frogs DT Davion Pierson (ankle) upgraded to probable, neither team has any key new injuries to be concerned about.

TCU has been very good on offense this season, ranking 12th in FBS scoring (42.8 PPG), 19th in passing (320 YPG) and 41st in rushing (196.3 YPG). QB Trevone Boykin (1,176 pass yards, 260 rush yards, 13 total TD) was terrific in the win against the Sooners. He has always been a threat to run the ball, but it is Boykin's passing that has made him so difficult to stop this season, as he's completing 62% of his throws for 7.3 YPA, both career highs. He has thrown only two interceptions this season, which is key for a TCU team that has proven to be difficult to score on. While Boykin is the leading rusher on the team, running back B.J. Catalon (46 carries, 220 yards, 4 TD) is emerging as a guy the Horned Frogs can count on. He had 87 total yards of offense against the Sooners, helping the TCU offense create some balance on that side of the ball. WR Kolby Listenbee (14 rec, 272 yards, 2 TD) has emerged as the Horned Frogs deep threat, but there are other receivers such as Josh Doctson (19 catches, 212 yards, 3 TD) and Deante' Gray (16 catches, 196 yards, 3 TD).

The Horned Frogs are going to have to put up a big number of points to get outlast Baylor, but their defensive unit is one of the best in the country, with a mere 13.5 PPG allowed (7th in FBS). LB Paul Dawson (37 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) had the game-changing play last weekend against Oklahoma, as he took back an interception that would prove to be the difference in the game. DT Davion Pearson (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is an emerging force in the middle of the defense, with his 305-pound frame constantly forcing teams to double-team him. Junior S Chris Hackett (31 tackles) is the leader in the secondary, and he must be ready to help in the passing game, but also against the run.

The Bears offense has not been clicking on all cylinders the past two weeks, but is still ranked leading the nation in scoring (51.0 PPG), while ranking 8th in passing (343.2 YPG) and 18th in rushing (247.4. YPG). A back injury has slowed QB Bryce Petty (1,024 pass yards, 9 TD, 1 INT), but he is still one of the elite quarterbacks in the country. He also has three touchdowns this year running the ball, forcing defenses to creep up into the box. Joining Petty in the backfield is RB Shock Linwood (90 carries, 549 yards, 8 TD), who is emerging as one of the best running backs in the Big 12. He is more known as a speed back, but he also has the strength and power to run up the middle. His ability to wear out the defense helps open things up for the passing game, where the Bears have as much talent as any other team in the country. WR KD Cannon (24 catches, 527 yards, 5 TD) is a freshman that has shown superstar potential. He is the type of guy that demands a safety over top, which opens things up for teammates like WRs Antwan Goodley (10 catches, 183 yards, 1 TD). Like Petty, Goodley has been hampered by a quad injury, but is getting close to his All-American form from last season.

The offense is once again explosive, but what the Bears showed in the win against Texas is that their defense is also very good. The unit ranks fifth in FBS points allowed (12.4 PPG), and did not allow the Longhorns to score until the final minutes of the game. LB Bryce Hager (29 tackles, 3.5 TFL) is the anchor of this unit, providing the team with leadership and a knack of finding the ball. In the secondary, S Orion Stewart (3 INT) is a rising star with the ability of reading the quarterback and making the big play. The winner of this game is in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 championship, especially the Horned Frogs who now have the tiebreaker over conference favorite Oklahoma.

OLE MISS REBELS (5-0) at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (5-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Texas A&M -2, Total: 62

Another tough SEC battle ensues on Saturday night as No. 3 Ole Miss visits No. 14 Texas A&M.

Ole Miss has been one of the more surprising teams coming out of the SEC with a perfect record so far, and its win over Alabama last week vaulted the school squarely into the playoff picture. The Rebels are 5-0 ATS and were four-point underdogs when they hosted the Crimson Tide last Saturday when they outscored Alabama 20-3 in the second half and forced two turnovers in the 23-17 win. In the Crimson Tide’s final attempt to take a lead, DB Senquez Wilson intercepted a pass in the end zone with 37 seconds left on the clock that clinched the upset. The Aggies were hoping to remain perfect last week, but ran into a tough Mississippi State team that was too hot to handle as they lost 48-31 as 2.5-point underdogs in a game where the two teams totaled 1,085 yards of offense. The ATS loss brought them to 3-3 ATS on the year, which includes failing to cover the spread in three of the past four contests. Although Texas A&M is a solid 5-1 SU, this team has had issues with turnovers and has coughed up the pigskin nine times while forcing opponents to turn the ball over just six times.

Each of the past two meetings between these teams has ended with the Aggies taking a three-point victory on the road while failing to cover the spread. Last season, A&M won 41-38 as a seven-point favorite in an offensive battle where the teams combined for 56 first downs and 1,049 total yards. Bettors should take note that Ole Miss is 22-9 ATS (71%) in all games over the past three seasons, while the Aggies are 10-1 ATS (91%) in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. In injury news, DB Trae Elston (suspension) will miss the first half of this game for the Rebels, while LB A.J. Hilliard (ankle) is out indefinitely for the Aggies.

Ole Miss has put up some big numbers through the air (318.6 YPG, 22nd in FBS) as it is totaling 35.8 PPG by scoring 35 or more points in three of five games on the year. QB Bo Wallace (1,522 pass yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) was amazing against Alabama last week with 3 TD and 0 INT while passing for 251 yards (8.1 YPA). He’s thrown for more than 310 yards three times already on the year, but can have trouble with turnovers as he has twice thrown multiple picks. HB Jaylen Walton (238 rush yards, 3 TD) leads the rushing attack and is coming off two consecutive games with double-digit carries, while change-of-pace HB I’Tavius Mathers (152 rush yards, 2 TD) had just two rushing attempts last week. Wallace has plenty of talent in his receiving corps, such as WRs Laquon Treadwell (362 rec. yards, 4 TD), Cody Core (315 rec. yards, 4 TD) and Vince Sanders (302 rec. yards, 3 TD). These players are all legitimate red-zone threats while having at least 20 receptions on the year. The defense of this program continues to shine, as the unit has allowed the nation's second-fewest points (10.2 PPG) while limiting opponents to 278 total YPG and 4.1 yards per play. The Rebels will continue to lean on DB Senquez Wilson (17 tackles, 4 INTs, 1 TD) to headline the secondary.

Texas A&M continues to rely heavily on its passing game which ranks fifth in FBS (395.2 YPG) while still doing well on the ground (188 YPG) and scoring a bloated 47.8 PPG (3rd in nation). The emergence of QB Kenny Hill (2,110 pass yards, 21 TD, 5 INT) has given this program tons of hope, as he has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of his six games, but has thrown all five of his picks in the past three weeks. He does also contribute somewhat to the ground game with 171 yards rushing (5.0 YPC). HBs Trey Williams (287 rush yards, 4 TD) and Tra Carson (244 rush yards, 4 TD) have split carries in the backfield while combining to average 6.2 YPC. Carson seems to be taking over as more of the feature back though, with 11 attempts in the last game compared to just four by Williams.

WR Josh Reynolds (402 rec. yards, 7 TD) has been the big playmaker through the air for this offense, as he is averaging 17.5 yards per catch while both WRs Malcome Kennedy (378 rec. yards, 2 TD) and Ricky Seals-Jones (293 rec. yards, 3 TD) have at least 30 receptions. The defense has not looked great over the past two weeks, allowing 38.0 PPG to two tough offenses, but and has still given up only 20.5 PPG (29th in FBS) overall this year. Freshman DL Myles Garrett (30 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and LB Howard Matthews (39 tackles) hope they can get this unit back on track this weekend.

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

11- 2 - 1........................*****

7 - 4..............................DOUBLE PLAY

5- 7...............................TRIPLE PLAY

1 - 5........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


RATED PLAYS AND OPINIONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/09/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 36-*27-*2 57.14% +3150



Friday, October 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington State - 9:00 PM ET Washington State +15.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Stanford - Over 52.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY


San Diego State - 9:30 PM ET New Mexico +4 500

New Mexico - Under 55 500 *****


Fresno State - 10:00 PM ET Fresno State -9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

UNLV - Over 65.5 500 *****

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Pac-12 Report - Week 7

October 10, 2014
!

What a sorry week for the Pac-12. All four of its ranked members in the Top 25 suffered setbacks. No. 2 Oregon was dropped in front of a national audience at home Thursday night, Stanford lost a heartbreaker at Notre Dame on a last-minute touchdown pass, USC tumbled on a Hail Mary at the buzzer against Arizona State, and UCLA was also bitten by the upset big in a loss at home to UCLA. In one weekend, the conference might have taken itself out of the running for one of the four playoff spots. Maybe.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 5-0 2-0 2-3 2-3

Arizona State 4-1 2-1 2-3 3-2

California 4-1 2-1 4-1 4-1

Colorado 2-4 0-3 3-3 3-3

Oregon 4-1 1-1 1-4 2-3

Oregon State 4-1 1-1 2-3 2-3

Southern California 3-2 2-1 3-2 3-2

Stanford 3-2 1-1 2-3 0-4

UCLA 4-1 1-1 1-4 2-3

Utah 4-1 1-1 4-1 2-3


Washington 4-1 0-1 2-3 1-4

Washington State 2-4 1-2 3-3 3-3


Washington State at Stanford (FRI - ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

Talk about a contrast in styles. Washington State is a high-powered offense with little defense, while Stanford struggles to put up points, but that is quite all right since they have a fantastic defense, especially against the pass. In fact, Stanford ranks No. 2 in the nation shutting down the aerial attack. QB Connor Halliday and the Cougs certainly look to put a dent in those numbers. Halliday set the FBS record with an insane 734 yards and six touchdowns in a 60-59 loss to California last week. The Cougs had a chance to win, but lost on a missed field goal from 19 yards out. Washington State is 7-2 ATS in their past nine road games, including a comeback victory at Utah two weeks ago. The Cardinal are 24-11-1 ATS in their past 36 conference tilts, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven at home.

Oregon at UCLA (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Oregon and UCLA both suffered debilitating losses last week, and back-to-back losses will take them out of the hunt for a playoff spot, if they're not already done. The Ducks are still 13-4 ATS in their past 17 road games, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in the past 10 games overall. UCLA heads into this one just 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall, but 14-5 ATS in their past 19 home games against a team with a winning road record. Oregon is 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to UCLA, and the under has cashed in four of those five games.

Washington at California (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)

California won last weekend, although its defense was trampled for 59 points. Hey, a win's a win, right? They will be put to the test against a Washington defense which is pretty solid, and which is also rested after having a bye last week. The Huskies haven't been very good on the road lately, however, going 5-12 ATS in their past 17 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 road outings against a team with a winning home record. California struggled in recent years, but not this year. They're 4-1 ATS in the past five games overall, and their 3-13 ATS home mark over the past 16 games can mostly be ignored since this year's team is much better than previous seasons. In this series, Washington is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, although the underdog has also cashed in four of the past five. The 'under' has hit in each of the past five in this series.

Southern California at Arizona (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m.)

The Wildcats pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season, topping No. 2 Oregon on the road last Thursday. However, it would be mostly for naught if they came home and laid an egg against USC at home. The Trojans are just 3-12 ATS in the past 15 road contests, and 1-8 ATS in their past nine road games against a team with a winning home record. Despite the impressive win, Arizona is still just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 against teams with a winning record, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference tilts. This series has seen the underdog go 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings, and that bodes well for Arizona. In addition, USC is just 2-7 ATS in their past nine against Arizona. The 'under has hit in four of the past five battles between these two teams in Tucson.

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Total Notes - Week 7

October 10, 2014

Week 6 Recap

For those keeping track, the ‘under’ came out on top for the third consecutive week in college football. According to our numbers, the ‘under’ went 34-2-1 in FBS matchups and that record could’ve been better if it wasn’t for at least one finish, in particular the Arizona State-USC matchup.

Heading into the fourth quarter, USC held a 20-18 lead and they went ahead by nine points (27-18) early in the fourth quarter. That score held until ASU cut the lead to 27-25 with less than four minutes remaining in the game. The total on this game closed at 67 ½ and even the most optimist bettors that played the ‘over’ knew they needed a miracle. Sure enough, we saw three touchdowns scored in the final three minutes, which included the infamous “Hail Mary” 46-yard touchdown strike that gave ASU a 38-34 victory. For those who had the ‘under’, we feel for you.

Different Dynamics

After this weekend, we’ll have reached the midway point of the college football season, which is a solid sample size for us to handicap. We asked VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos to point out certain schools that have surprised him thus far.

Manos answered, “I think there are a few teams that stick out as "surprises" but in different ways.”

“California is a team that has really developed in terms of tempo. I played the OVER in their opener vs. Northwestern, expecting a very up-tempo game, and got beat, but the Bears have really amped up the scoring since without really pushing up the pace. We all knew that head coach Sonny Dykes was going to bring his fast paced passing game to the program but it seems the bump up in talent level has allowed him to do even more than in prior seasons and to get better results with less snaps. QB (Jared) Goff has been outstanding and the Bears are averaging 50 ppg even though they rank just 45th in offensive plays per game. The combined scores of California's last three games, 94,115, and 119. With UCLA, Oregon, Oregon St., and USC still on the schedule they have the potential for several more high scoring games."

“Staying in the Pac-12, I've been a bit surprised by how new Washington HC (Chris) Peterson has run his program. While never a truly up-tempo coach at Boise State his teams did play a lot of offensive snaps, averaging 81 per game his last year at the helm. Now at Washington, he's slowed the game down considerably, focusing on the run, and while his team has scored points (35.6 ppg) they seem lethargic offensively at times. The Huskies are exactly middle-of-the-pack in terms of plays per game, averaging 74.8, which ranks them 65th out of 128 FBS teams.”

“On the flip side, I've been surprised at the pace of the Ball State Cardinals this year. Losing QB (Keith) Wenning must have hurt more than anyone could have guessed as HC (Pete) Lembo seems to have completely changed his offensive strategy. The Cardinals have gone from a high-scoring passing attack to a mundane slower paced team. In 2012 and 2013 the Cardinals played ONE game that totaled less than 54 points, they did it for three consecutive games to start the 2014 campaign. They rank 100th in passing offense, 105th in scoring offense, and their plays per game have dropped 15% to just 63.7 which ranks 123rd."

James Manos (63%) is providing a “Game of the Month” selection for Week 7.

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The ACC saw the ‘under’ go 7-0 last week as three schools were held to six points or less. Total players should keep an eye on the Louisville-Clemson matchup in Week 7. The Cardinals have the best scoring defense (12.7 PPG) in the ACC while Clemson boasts the best scoring offense (40.4 PPG).

For the third straight game, Ohio State flexed its muscle as it defeated Maryland 52-24 in its Big Ten opener. The Buckeyes have scored 66, 50 and 52 points in their last three games and you can sense that coach Urban Meyer knows he needs to win big if he wants to earn a bid to the College Football Playoff. Including that result, the conference saw the ‘over’ go 4-2 last week.

The Big 12 watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in conference play last Saturday. Oklahoma State saw its 4-0 ‘over’ run come to a halt when it defeated Iowa State 37-20 in Week 6 and the combined 57 points fell short of the closing number (63). Make a note that this game was scoreless after the first quarter.

There were six games in the Pac-12 last week and total bettors watched the ‘over/under’ go 3-3 but as mentioned above, the ASU-USC outcome could’ve made these results different. While that finish was wild, California’s 60-59 shootout victory over Washington State saw offensive records busted. The ‘over’ (67.5) cashed midway through the third quarter.

The SEC also had a stalemate (3-3) in Week 6 and most of the results were clear-cut. Twelve of the 14 teams in the conference are averaging 30-plus PPG and five are at 40 PPG above.

Streaks to Watch

Over 5-0
Georgia at Missouri (Suspension to Georgia RB)

Under 6-0
Navy vs. VMI (*Added game, O/U could be offered via Offshores)

Under 5-0
Ball State vs. Western Michigan
Houston at Memphis
Northwestern at Minnesota

Line Moves

VI Totals Expert James Manos analyzes line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories. I provide some quick thoughts and you can see from last week’s results that Manos has a great pulse on the totals market.

Week 7

1) Correct Sharp Movement – North Texas/UAB Under
Close to a touchdown move in this Conference USA matchup (64 to 58 ½), which Manos agrees with.

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Michigan State/Purdue Under
The pros knocked this opener from 54 ½ to 51 ½ and Manos isn’t buying the move. The Spartans do have the best scoring offense (45.6 PPG) in the Big Ten and Purdue’s defense is far from great.

3) Public Movement – West Virginia/Texas Tech Over
This total opened 72 and has been bet up to 78 already. Both clubs like to play up-tempo but neither offense has shown consistency, but the same can be said for the defensive units too.

4) Market Manipulation – Washington/California Under
Manos spoke about both of these teams above and you can see that the “Pros” started chopping away at this number slowly, which opened at 75 ½. The number got as low as 69 ½ and will likely come up by kickoff, setting up the middle.

Listed below are all of the Week 7 total moves by 3.5 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday evening.

Week 7 Moves

Rotation Open Current

Michigan State at Purdue 54.5 51

Miami-Ohio at Akron 47.5 54.5

West Virginia at Texas Tech 72 78

Oklahoma State at Kansas 53.5 48.5

North Texas at UAB 64 58

Auburn at Mississippi State 59.5 63.5

Washington at California 75.5 70

Arkansas State at Georgia State 59.5 65.5

FIU at Texas-San Antonio 45 40

Mississippi at Texas A&M 60 65.5

Uconn at Tulane 47 41.5

Colorado State at Nevada 57.5 64.5

Wyoming at Hawaii 48.5 43

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NCAAF

Thursday, October 9

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College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 7
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(1) Florida State Seminoles at Syracuse Orange (+23.5, 54)

* Rashad Greene, Florida State's leading wide receiver, is in danger of missing this game. The senior wideout, who leads the Seminoles with 38 catches and 576 yards, suffered a concussion versus Wake Forest last week.

* Not be outdone in injury news, however, is Syracuse. The Orange will now be without starting quarterback Terrel Hunt for 4-6 weeks after suffering a broken calf bone last week.

(2) Auburn Tigers at (6) Mississippi State Bulldogs (+3, 64)

* According to ESPN, the Auburn Tigers have four games remaining with just a 60 percent chance of winning, including this Week 7 matchup.

* Auburn coach Gus Malzahn compared MSU QB Dak Prescott to his former signal caller, Cam Newton. "He's got some similarities. He's a big, physical guy. A lot of times in short yardage, he'll find a way to get it."

(12) TCU Horned Frogs at (3) Baylor Bears (-8, 67.5)

* There are a few teams left (Virginia, Baylor, Memphis, Ole Miss) that haven't lost against the spread, but have one push this season. But only one unblemished ATS record is left. That belongs to the TCU Horned Frogs who are the best bet in the land at 4-0 ATS.

*The Baylor Bears are 21-1 straight up in their last 22 home games (19-2 against the spread). Their only SU loss during that stretch? That came as a 6-point fave against the TCU Horned Frogs in 2012 (49-21).

(4) Ole Miss Rebels at (14) Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5, 65)

* Perhaps it's best to not look at Ole Miss for a letdown spot this week. Saturday was the third time this century that the Rebels defeated Alabama (2003, 2001). In both occasions, they won SU and ATS the following week.

* Myles Garrett broke the Texas A&M freshman sacks record last week and his 6.5 sacks rank second in the SEC.

North Carolina Tar Heels at (5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-16.5, 54.5)

* There are two programs left that are winless against the spread this season and the Tar Heels are one of them. North Carolina heads into Week 7 0-5 ATS (UConn is the other).

* The Irish, ever looking more like a playoff threat, were one of the biggest movers in Championship futures this week, going from 18/1 to 8/1.

(7) Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks (+8.5, 56)

* The Crimson Tide don't take defeat very well. In their last 15 losses, the Tide are just 3-12 against the spread in the following game.

* At his press conference Wednesday, Alabama head coach Nick Saban cited the Razorbacks as the most improved team the Tide will face: "I think Arkansas is the most improved team that I've seen that we play so far this year. This is a really good football team," he said.

(8) Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers (+21, 51)

* Is the Spartans' defense clapping to disrupt opponents' snap counts? Nebraska's Bo Pelini thinks so and claims it's "Something that I'll talk to the league office about". Nebraska was called for three pre-snap pelanties in the loss to the Spartans.

* Purdue quarterback Austin Appleby used a win over Illinois to claim that the Boilermakers were about to go on a streak. "This is just one win, we're gonna put a couple together now," he said after a 38-27 win over the Illini. He'll be quarterbacking a team that is a 21-point home dog Saturday.

Texas Longhorns vs. (9) Oklahoma Sooners (-14.5, 47)

* A loss to the Sooners in the Red River Rivalry and the Longhorns will have a record of 2-4 straight up, their worst start since 1956 (1-5).

* The Sooners are perfect examples of an NCAA powerhouse that responds well for bettors after a loss. The Sooners are 23-7 against the spread coming off a defeat. Oklahoma is a 14.5-point fave over Texas one week removed from a loss to TCU.

(10) Georgia Bulldogs at (24) Missouri Tigers (+3, 59)

* Georgia star running back and Heisman frontrunner RB Todd Gurley is suspended indefinitely pending a NCAA investigation. Oddsmakers priced Gurley's worth to the UGA spread between 1.5 and three points. The Bulldogs opened as 3-point road favorites but after news of Gurley's suspension spread, books took Saturday's game off the board and then reopened at a pick'em.

* The Tigers boast one of the top pass-rushing duos in the nation in defensive ends Shane Ray (SEC-best eight sacks) and Markus Golden (four sacks).

(11) Oregon Ducks at (17) UCLA Bruins (+2.5, 71)

* Oregon has certainly found contributions from some unexpected places. The Ducks have 30 offensive touchdowns this season, 13 of which have come from freshman (43 percent). Freshman WR Devon Allen (6) and RB Royce Freeman (5) are first and second in end zone visits.

* If there's one place UCLA needs to improve defensively it's on third downs. The Bruins have allowed 7.6 third-down conversions per game this season, which has them ranked No.114 in the nation in that category.

USC Trojans at (13) Arizona Wildcats (+2.5, 68)

* To say that the Trojans are a first-quarter team may be an understatement. Southern Cal has outscored opponents 52-7 in the first quarter this season.

* Despite Arizona facing an unranked team, they are the underdogs according to oddsmakers. “I’m glad we’re the underdogs," Will Parks said. That just keeps all the guys focused for the task at hand."

(18) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks (+21, 50.5)

* Despite the Cowboys sporting a 4-1 record, coach Mike Gundy has yet to really turn his team loose. "We're basic vanilla for the most part," Gundy said. "Until we improve in some areas, it’s difficult to really get out of our box."

* If there is one part of the game the Jayhawks are excelling in, it's recovering fumbles. Through five games, Kansas has a Big 12-high five fumble recoveries.

(19) East Carolina Pirates at South Florida Bulls (+16, 58)

* In East Carolina's impressive offensive numbers, the defense has been neglected. The Pirates have only allowed 106.4 rushing yards per game (17 in FBS) and have held three of their opponents this season to less than a 2.9 yards per rush average.

* The Bulls know what they are up against Saturday and defensive coordinator Chuck Bresnahan has an interesting analogy for it. “This is a game played in space. For this it’s basketball played on grass. The ability to make the open field tackle and swarm to the football is huge.”

Duke Blue Devils at (23) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-3, 58)

* The key for the Blue Devils has long been allowing few points. In each of Duke's four wins this season it held its opponent to fewer than 20 points, which has improved the squads record to 20-3 under David Cutcliffe when accomplishing that feat.

* The Yellow Jackets triple-option attack has been shredding teams so far this season. Georgia Tech is No.11 in the nation in rushing yards per game and has amassed 297.2 rushing yards per game.

Louisville Cardinals at (25) Clemson Tigers (-9.5, 47.5)

* Louisville may be sporting the top up-and-coming running back nobody is talking about it in Brandon Radcliff. The sophomore has 230 yards on the ground and four touchdowns in his last two games.

* There may be no better freshman quarterback than Deshaun Watson. In Watson's past two games he has racked up 702 yards in the air with an 8-to-1 touch to interception ratio.