The Bum's October College Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[KazDog]

Good luck with the late plays SDB. I'm liking Hawaii and Nev too!

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Summarizing a super sports Saturday.......
Damn, what a day.........

13) This week was the second time ever (Nov 4, 1990 was the other), that four of the country's top six teams lost in the same week. Back then, Virginia was #1, Illinois was #5. Times have changed.

12) Ole Miss 23, Alabama 17-- Crimson Tide scored a defensive TD with 0:42 left in first half to take a 14-3 lead; Ole Miss looked dead at that point, but they rallied to score two TDs in last 5:30 for the win. Ole Miss and Miss State had never both been 4-0 in the same season- now they're both 5-0.

11) TCU 37, Oklahoma 33-- Horned Frogs survived three turnovers, 12 penalties to gets its biggest win since joining the Big X. TCU led 14-0 early; winning TD was an INT return for a TD with 14:12 left. Frogs converted 10 of 18 on third down.

10) Mississippi State 48, Texas A&M 31-- Probably best sports day in history of the Magnolia State; Bulldogs ran ball for 289 yards, passed for 270. Only 11 of 77 plays that State ran came on third down. SEC is a meat grinder.

9) Notre Dame 17, Stanford 14-- Irish drove 65 yards in nine plays in 2:00 in the rain to pull this game out, scoring winning TD with 1:10 left. Penalties in this game: Stanford: 9-66. Notre Dame: 1-10. Purely a coincidence, I'm sure.

8) Auburn 41, LSU 7-- Auburn gained 566 yards and crushed an LSU team that is deficient at QB right now. Two of the previous three teams to beat LSU by at least 21 points won the national championship: Florida in '08, Alabama in '11.

7) Giants 2, Nationals 1 (18)-- Rookie manager Matt Williams took Zimmerman out with two out in 9th inning, when he was pitching a 3-hit shutout but after he walked a hitter, with Buster Posey coming up. Zimmerman had retired 20 batters in a row before the walk. 3.5 hours later, Washington lost and heads west down two games to none.

Side note: There have been two 18-inning games in playoff history; Tim Hudson started both of them, the other coming in 2005.

6) Miami O 42, UMass 41-- Minutemen led 41-21 at halftime, but didn't score in the second half and lost to a Red Hawks squad that had lost 21 games in a row. Oy.

5) Northwestern 20, Wisconsin 14-- Badgers have inexplicably lost their last four visits to Evanston. Badgers had 12 completions, four picks. Hard to win when your turnover ratio is -4. Whatever Northwestern pays Pat Fitzgerald, it ain't enough.

4) Kentucky 45, South Carolina 38-- Second week in row Gamecocks lost in 4th quarter after they led by two TDs in last 10:00. Carolina had 32 first downs, gained 500 yards and lost. Kentucky's defense scored the winning TD. South Carolina and Michigan should be matched up in the worst bowl game in December.

3) Utah 30, UCLA 28-- Utes sacked Brett Hundley 10 times, scored winning points with 0:34 left as a wacky Saturday ended with the Bruins losing in the Rose Bowl, a week after Utah lost to Washington State as a 14-point favorite. I spend a lot of my time researching this stuff and on Sunday mornings, much of it makes no sense.

2) Utah State 35, BYU 20 (Friday)-- BYU lost QB Hill for year (broken leg), as the Aggies beat BYU for just the second time in last 14 meetings. State QB Garretson is grandson of former NBA ref Darrell Garretson, nephew of ref Ron Garretson.

1) Arizona State 38, USC 34-- ASU QB Mike Bercovici will probably never play in the NFL; hell, if Taylor Kelly hadn't gotten hurt, he may never have started a college game, but Bercovici was 27-45 for 510 yards against USC in the Coliseum, passing for two TDs in the last 2:43, as ASU stunned the Trojans on a 46-yard TD pass on the last play of the game. Good for him.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

10- 2 - 1........................*****

6 - 4..............................DOUBLE PLAY

5- 7...............................TRIPLE PLAY

1 - 5........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


RATED PLAYS AND OPINIONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 34-*27-*2 55.74% +2150

[StarDust Bum]

College Betting Recap - Week 6

October 5, 2014


Overall Notes

College Football Week 6 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 40-17

Against the Spread 24-32-1

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 36-21

Against the Spread 25-31-1

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 21-35-1

The largest underdog to cash

Arizona (+21.5, ML +850) at Arizona, 31-24

The largest favorite to cash

Florida State (-37.5) vs Wake Forest, 43-3

Top 25 Notes

-- The Top 10 casualties were numerous this week, as disaster struck for four highly-ranked teams, including No. 2 Oregon, who is now Ore-gone from the ranks of the unbeaten after its stunning 31-24 loss to Arizona, who is expected to vault into the rankings.

-- Alabama was also bitten on the road in Oxford, as Mississippi was an inhospitable place to visit Saturday. The Tide actually led 14-3 at halftime, but the second half was all Rebels, especially the fourth quarter. Ole Miss outscored Nick Saban's group 13-0 in the final stanza, as the Rebs improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS.

-- Oklahoma was dumped by Texas Christian by a 37-33 score, as the Horned Frogs also look to scoot up the rankings. Not only is TCU 4-0 SU, but they're 4-0 ATS.

-- Outside of the Top 25, Notre Dame pulled off a miracle in the shadows of 'Touchdown Jesus', sending Stanford home with frowns, 17-14.

-- Overall in the Top 25, ranked teams went just 14-11 straight-up, with seven games featuring ranked teams facing each other. Top 10 teams were just 5-5 SU, and 4-6 ATS.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Georgia Tech remains a perfect 5-0 after turning back Miami-Florida by a 28-17 score. After starting with three overs, the under is 2-0 for GT in the past two. Meanwhile, Miami is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS at home this season, but 0-3 SU/ATS on the road. ... Florida State started slow against Wake Forest, but ended up throttling the overmatched Deacs 43-3. It was FSU's first cover in five tries. ... Virginia continued its covering ways, hanging on for five-point win over Pittsburgh, although some might have pushed.

-- The heat is Mercury-like on the seat of head coach Brady Hoke, as Michigan is the trivia answer for opponent of Rutgers for their first-ever Big Ten conference victory. The Scarlet Knights won 26-24, but hey, at least the Wolverines covered. ... Northwestern won its third straight game, this time dumping Wisconsin by a 20-14 score. That's five games and five unders for the Wildcats this season. ... And Michigan State? Wow. Scoot down to bad beats to read more about them.

-- Oklahoma State held on for a 37-20 win as a 16 1/2-point favorite. That's always the best to be on the right side of those. ... Baylor started slow, and actually led just 7-0 at half at Texas. However, their offense showed up in the second half, and they dominated the 'Horns 28-7 in Austin. ... Kansas State ripped Texas Tech 45-13 to easily cover. That's three straight covers for the Wildcats.

-- For the fourth straight game, it was an 'over' for California in their video-game-like track meet against Washington State. The Golden Bears hung on for a crazy 60-59 win, as the Cougs missed a 19-yard FG in the final minute. QB Connor Halliday actually set the single-game FBS record for passing yardage in the loss. ... Hopefully you weren't an 'under' bettor in Arizona State-USC (see bad beats below). ... We mentioned Arizona's win at Autzen Stadium Thursday. While they're 5-0 SU, the Wildcats are just 2-3 ATS. The cover snapped an 0-3 ATS skid.

-- The snoozer of the day was in Knoxville, as there was just one total touchdown in the 10-9 win by Florida over Tennessee. It was super surprising since the over was 3-0 in Florida's first three contests. ... Kentucky hadn't won an SEC game since 2012 until last weekend. Now, they have a two-game league win streak after surprising South Carolina with a 21-point fourth quarter blitzkrieg. Again, see the bad beats section. ... Vanderbilt might be just 1-5 SU this season, but they have covered three in a row.

Mid-Major Report

In Mid-American play, Massachusetts-Miami of Ohio did not look inviting with both teams at 0-5 SU. However, the Red Hawks won a thrilling 42-41 game. For UMass, that's five straight overs. Remember that when they head to Kent State next week. ... On the flip side, Akron had the under hit for the fourth time in five games.

-- It was back to big offense, no defense for Western Kentucky after its first under of the year last week. The over is now 4-1 after their 42-39 loss to UAB. ... In other C-USA action, Rice rolled to its second straight win and cover, dumping a tired Hawaii team making its second mainland trip in three weeks.

-- In Sun Belt action, Georgia State made their way out of a 14-0 first-quarter hole to win 36-28 at New Mexico State, but it was their first non-cover in six tries. ... Georgia State dropped its fifth consecutive game, but they were able to cover their third consecutive game as a double-digit 'dog.

-- In AAC play, Memphis throttled Cincinnati 41-14, as the Bearcats lost QB Gunner Kiel to injury. The Tigers are 3-2 SU, but more impressively they are 4-0-1 ATS. Memphis has also had three straight unders heading into their home game against Houston next week.

Bad Beats

-- The Arizona State-USC game appeared to be headed for under 67, with one play left and the Trojans up 34-31. However, the Sun Devils hit a game-winning Hail Mary with no time remaining, stunning USC and killing under bettors with a cruel bad beat.

-- With 11:45 left in regulation, South Carolina bettors were feeling good about themselves. At 8:06, Gamecocks bettors were not as thrilled, but still covering at 38-31. The Wildcats then tied it up at 2:46 to go, and then a 6-yard interception return for TD with 2:29 gave the Wildcats their second straight SEC win.

-- Michigan State bettors were sitting pretty heading into the fourth quarter, leading 27-3. The student section emptied, the announcers were babbling on about other things in a blowout, but Nebraska elected to make it a game. With 4:10 left, the Huskers closed to within 27-16, but still needed a big defensive stop. They got it, and forced a punt after using all of their timeouts. That's when De'Mornay Pierson-El ripped off a 62-yard punt return for score to close the scoring at 27-22. Side bettors of Sparty were left shaking their heads.

-- It wasn't quite a bad beat, but moneyline bettors of Utah had to survive not one, but two UCLA missed field goals in the final seconds. The Bruins missed a 55-yard attempt, but a running into the kicker gave them a second chance. It wasn't close, and the Utes hit +400 on the moneyline.

[StarDust Bum]

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 6

October 5, 2014


Week 6 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Alabama (L-L vs. Ole Miss 23-17)
Blake Bell and the Tide just aren't as good this year as they’ve been in the past.

2) Florida State (W-W vs. Wake Forest 43-3)
It was a sluggish start for FSU, but leaving in the starters way too long earned Jimbo and company their first cover of the year.

3) Oklahoma (L-L vs. TCU 37-33)
This was supposed to be a special year for Oklahoma. All of a sudden, the college football playoff looks to be a long ways away.

4) Oregon (L-L vs. Arizona 31-24)
The madness in the Top 5 started on Thursday when Arizona stunned the Ducks in front of a frenzied and liquored up Autzen Stadium crowd.

5) Auburn (W-W vs. LSU 41-7)
Auburn will certainly have a gripe to be the No. 1 team in the land after an impressive showing against LSU.

6) Baylor (W-W vs. Texas 28-7)
The Texas defense put up a good fight, but in the end, Bryce Petty and the Bears were too much in Austin.

7) Texas A&M (L-L vs. Mississippi State 48-31)
All of a sudden, all of what A&M has accomplished doesn't look all that impressive, and this looks like a three- or a four-loss team.

8) Notre Dame (W-W vs. Stanford 17-14)
In two weeks, FSU will play Notre Dame in what could legitimately be a 1 vs. 2 game, depending upon how things play out next week.

9) UCLA (L-L vs. Utah 30-28)
The night of madness ended on Saturday when UCLA's 50-yard field goal sailed wide against Utah.

10) Michigan State (W-L vs. Nebraska 27-22)
There was no reason for the Spartans to let the Huskers hit the backdoor late Saturday night.

11) Ole Miss (W-W vs. Alabama 23-17)
The Rebs scored their first win ever over Bama and their first win against a top ranked team in school history.

12) Georgia (W-L vs. Vanderbilt 44-17)
Had UGA not gotten screwed against South Carolina, it would be a Top 5 team now.

13) Stanford (L-L vs. Notre Dame 17-14)
For the second time this year, Stanford failed to muster enough offense to take advantage of a great defensive effort.

14) Mississippi State (W-W vs. Texas A&M 48-31)
Don't let that final score fool you. Mississippi State was the best team in Mississippi on Saturday.

15) LSU (L-L vs. Auburn 41-7)
The Bayou Bengals are probably done now. Their young team was clearly exploited in their first road game on Saturday.

16) Wisconsin (L-L vs. Northwestern 20-14)
Of all of the maddening losses on Saturday, Wisconsin's against Northwestern was probably the most shocking.

17) Nebraska (L-W vs. Michigan State 27-22)
The Huskers hit the backdoor with two TDs in the last five minutes in East Lansing.

18) Ohio State (W-W vs. Maryland 52-24)
The Buckeyes are clearly back in the playoff discussion after all that went wrong for the top teams on Saturday.

19) BYU (L-L vs. Utah State 35-20)
21-point favorites shouldn’t lose by 15 points. The bigger concern in Provo though, is that Taysom Hill's season is over after he broke his leg.

20) USC (L-L vs. Arizona State 38-34)
The Trojans had their playoff dreams come to an end on a Hail Mary with no time left on the clock.

21) East Carolina (W-L vs. SMU 45-24)
Don't totally dismiss the chances of a one-loss ECU team cracking the playoff this year if the carnage continues.

22) Kansas State (W-W vs. Texas Tech 45-13)
The defense for the Wildcats was fantastic against Davis Webb and the Red Raiders.

23) Oklahoma State (W-W vs. Iowa State 37-20)
Iowa State's AD might have had some gripes about some bad calls. So might the Cyclones backers who got hooked.

24) Arizona State (W-W vs. USC 38-34)
998 yards and eight TDs against two picks? Not bad for Mike Bercovici in his first two collegiate starts.

25) TCU (W-W vs. Oklahoma 37-33)
TCU’s offense came out of nowhere to stun OU, and now, the Horned Frogs are legit Big XII title contenders.

[StarDust Bum]

Rebels, Bulldogs tied for 3rd in AP poll

October 5, 2014


STARKVILLE, Miss. (AP) - Mississippi and Mississippi State are tied for third in The Associated Press college football poll after a wild day of unexpected results brought major changes to the Top 25.

Just about the only thing that didn't change this week was No. 1: Florida State is still top-ranked, with 35 first-place votes.

Auburn, the only other team in the top six to win, moved up three spots to No. 2 and received 23 first-place votes. Then comes Ole Miss and Mississippi State, in the top five together for the first time after the Rebels beat Alabama and the Bulldogs beat Texas A&M on Saturday.

The Bulldogs received two first-place votes.

The Rebels haven't been ranked this high since 1970, when they were also No. 3. The Bulldogs have their best ranking ever. Their previous best was No. 7 in 1981.

Baylor rounds out the top five and Notre Dame is No. 6.

The USA Today coaches' poll had Florida State, Auburn, Baylor, Ole Miss and Notre Dame in the top five. Mississippi State was sixth.

For the second time in the 78-year history of the AP poll, four of the top six teams lost and for the first time five of the top eight teams went down in a single regular-season week.

The top-eight teams to lose and poll reaction:

- Oregon dropped 10 spots after losing 31-24 at home to Arizona on Thursday night . The Wildcats went from unranked to No. 10, the biggest jump into the poll since the rankings went to a top 25 in 1989. The previous best was No. 13 Iowa on Sept. 27, 2009.

- Alabama dropped four spots to No. 7.

- Oklahoma dropped seven spots to No. 11 after losing to TCU. The Horned Frogs moved up 16 spots to No. 9. They play at Baylor next week.

- Texas A&M dropped eight spots to No. 14.

- UCLA dropped 10 spots to No. 18 after losing 30-28 at home to Utah. The Utes moved into the rankings at No. 24.

Arizona State moved back into the Top 25 at No. 20 after beating Southern California 38-34 on a Hail Mary. Unbeaten Georgia Tech moved into the rankings for the first time this season at No. 23.

USC, LSU, BYU and Wisconsin all dropped out of the rankings after losses.

LSU, which lost 41-7 to Auburn, had its streak of 87 straight poll appearances snapped. It was the second-longest active streak behind Alabama, which is up to 105 in a row.

[StarDust Bum]

Arizona imagining the big possibilities

October 5, 2014


LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) - Kentucky's biggest victory under coach Mark Stoops has players trying to keep perspective as they also look ahead to their next achievement.

From the Wildcats' standpoint, everything's on the table after Saturday night's 45-38 upset of South Carolina. Picked to finish last in the Southeastern Conference's East division, they're in a three-way tie for second place and part of the title discussion after consecutive victories that surprised everybody but them.

''We're definitely in there now,'' quarterback Patrick Towles said. ''Definitely, no question. We're there to stay, for sure.''

A victory Saturday against nonconference Louisiana-Monroe puts Kentucky (4-1, 2-1) within a game of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. Reaching that six-win threshold for consideration will be tough with SEC games against LSU and No. 3 Mississippi State following ULM, not to mention matchups against East rivals Missouri and Georgia.

But after rallying twice from 14-point deficits to beat the Gamecocks, the Wildcats believe the program is turning the corner toward becoming the competitive team that Stoops said they'd be upon his hiring two years ago.

''If we go out and win next week and take care of business, I think we do (turn the corner),'' said the second-year coach, smiling more after this victory than the other five in his brief tenure.

''I mean that. That's the thing in this business, you've got seven days to be humbled. And then we'll keep that in mind and really appreciate and respect all wins and then try to get back to work and really play a quality game next week.

No doubt, Kentucky has room for improvement despite having its first SEC winning streak since 2009.

The Wildcats defense allowed South Carolina to score 14 and 21 unanswered points along with 500 yards. Their offense stumbled out of the gate and relied on the Wildcat formation for all five touchdowns, including the flea-flicker-style trick play for the 48-yard, go-ahead score in the third quarter.

On the other hand, that play showed how those units came up big in the clutch. The Wildcats intercepted Dylan Thompson three times and scored 10 points off two, the biggest being Alvin ''Bud'' Dupree's game-winning interception return for a TD with 2:29 left after Mike Douglas' deflection.

Running back Jojo Kemp meanwhile thrived with direct snaps and rushed 17 times for 131 yards and three TDs, all career highs. Though Kentucky wants to throw the ball, Stoops said he won't shy away from using the wildcat often if it's there.

''I think it's always that old cliche, you're going to scratch where it itches,'' he said. ''If you can't get it stopped, you're going to keep on doing it.''

What's becoming clear is the Wildcats' growing resolve, which helped them stay close in a three-overtime loss at Florida and gutted out a satisfying win against South Carolina that sparked a joyous on-field celebration with fans.

Whether they maintain that determination as the competition gets tougher remains to be seen, but Kentucky players don't seem fazed by adversity like they were before. They'll need that attitude to make the postseason an option.

''We're 4-1, which is unbelievable,'' Towles said. ''But we're going to move forward. We're going to win a lot of games because the tenacity and the passion that we showed is going to win us a lot of football games.''

[StarDust Bum]

Baylor stays unbeaten with ugly win

October 5, 2014


AUSTIN, Texas (AP) - Fifth-ranked Baylor is all set for a rare matchup of top 10 teams at home.

Even with quarterback Bryce Petty facing some pressure and uncharacteristically off target, the Bears managed to do what so many other ranked teams failed to do the first Saturday of October. They found a way to win, pulling out a 28-7 victory at Texas even while Petty was only 7-of-22 passing for 111 yards.

''Sometimes it's going to be like that. It was ugly, but it's a win nonetheless. Any time you go out there, I would much rather it be ugly than pretty,'' Petty said. ''We got the win, which is exactly what we wanted to do. It wasn't exactly how I planned it but we got it done.''

In what coach Art Briles described as ''just a grind-out win,'' Terrell Burt returned a blocked field goal 62 yards for the first touchdown, Texas fumbled inside the Baylor 1 and Shock Linwood had 148 yards rushing for the Bears with a clinching TD in the fourth quarter.

Petty still threw two TD passes after halftime, one of them after a successful fake punt, while the Bears were held to 390 total yards. Baylor's offensive line hadn't allowed a sack all season before Petty was taken down three times by the Longhorns (2-3, 1-1).

The Bears (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) moved up two spots in the new AP poll Sunday, with the rankings shuffled after five of the top eight teams lost - and 11 of the top 20.

One of the loser was then-No. 4 Oklahoma 37-33 at TCU, which is at Baylor next Saturday.

TCU (4-0, 1-0) moved up 16 spots to No. 9 in the Top 25, setting up the first Top 10 matchup in Waco since 1956.

''I think we are a better team than last year and that's just the bottom line,'' Briles said. ''We are not where we need to be or have to be to have a chance to win the conference again, but I do think we are a better football team than we were a year ago at this time.''

Baylor was only up 7-0 in the third quarter when punter Spencer Roth called his own fake and had a long run. Three plays later, Petty threw a perfect strike to Antwan Goodley for a 29-yard score.

''Spencer really sparked that drive off for us with that fake punt. We got the first down, which allowed us to go score,'' Goodley said. ''We definitely have to come together as a team and play. It's hard winning on the road. You can't just come into somebody's house and try to take them. It's going to be a fight so we came together and came out with the win.''

Linwood had 100 yards rushing in the second half, and his 1-yard TD with 11 minutes left made it 21-0.

The Bears return to campus and their brand-new McLane Stadium for the first time since Sept. 6. They played their first two games at home before the past four-week stretch when they played three road games and had an open date.

[StarDust Bum]

Nebraska hoping for another shot at Sparty

October 5, 2014


With a bye this week, Nebraska will have some extra time to ponder what could have been and what could be.

A fourth-quarter rally that came up short in a 27-22 loss at No. 8 Michigan State on Saturday night left coach Bo Pelini rejecting the notion of a moral victory and his players hankering for another crack at the Spartans in the Big Ten championship game Dec. 6.

''Definitely, if we take care of our business, I don't see why we can't get there,'' cornerback Josh Mitchell said. ''They're a good team, so I see them getting there, too, so it would be a nice little rematch.''

The Cornhuskers (5-1, 1-1) play at resurgent Northwestern in two weeks, and there are big West Division road games at Wisconsin and Iowa in November. Michigan State (4-1, 1-0) has a manageable schedule until it hosts Ohio State on Nov. 8 in a game that could decide the East Division.

Meanwhile, the Huskers will address areas that were exposed by their toughest opponent to date.

The offensive line will get a long look after allowing five sacks and failing to create running room for Ameer Abdullah.

Left tackle Alex Lewis had a couple penalties, left guard Jake Cotton fell over backward in a failed attempt to avoid a false start, and center Mark Pelini twice snapped the ball before quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. was ready.

''It was pretty obvious,'' Bo Pelini said of the line's struggle. ''It surprised me. We didn't play well enough the whole game. We didn't play well enough in the second half, either. Give Michigan State credit. They took it to us up front. It wasn't blitzing or scheme. They outplayed us.''

Abdullah netted 45 yards on 24 carries, a 1.9-yard average, and the Huskers totaled only 47 yards on the ground. That was the fewest since Southern California held them to 31 rushing yards in 2007.

''I put the lack of running game on myself. I didn't hit the creases where I needed to, and that's on me,'' said Abdullah, whose Heisman Trophy campaign was on its biggest stage of the season.

Nebraska converted 3 of 15 third downs, and Armstrong was 20 of 43 for 273 yards with two interceptions.

Still, the Huskers nearly pulled off what would have been their greatest comeback after entering the fourth quarter down 24 points.

Nebraska's defense allowed 257 yards in the first half and 165 in the second, forcing five punts and three three-and-outs after half. Better than half the Spartans' second-half yards came on one drive that resulted in a touchdown.

''Defensively, we played well enough to win this football game,'' Bo Pelini said.

It was a five-point game after freshman Demornay Pierson-El went 62 yards for his second punt return for a touchdown this season. The Huskers got the ball back with 1:07 left and drove to the MSU 37 but couldn't score the go-ahead touchdown before Marcus Rush intercepted Armstrong.

''We lost the football game. I don't care whether it was by 30 or whatever it was,'' Bo Pelini said. ''I'm not into moral victories.''

Neither is Armstrong, who already is planning on another game against Michigan State when the stakes are higher.

''Honestly, it's not the last time they're going to see us, I can promise you that,'' Armstrong said. ''We plan on going 11-1 and making the Big Ten championship. We plan on seeing MSU again.''

[StarDust Bum]

Auburn rises to No. 2, faster than 2013

October 5, 2014


AUBURN, Ala. (AP) - The Auburn Tigers put together their most dominating performance of the season on defense and were explosive on offense against a ranked team, but they're still not interested in talking about the polls.

The second-ranked Tigers, who moved up three spots in the Associated Press rankings after Saturday night's 41-7 win over then-No. 15 LSU, came out of nowhere to win the Southeastern Conference championship last season. This team faces much bigger challenges ahead, starting Saturday on the road against co-No. 3 Mississippi State.

But after easily its most impressive win, Auburn (5-0, 2-0 SEC) was facing questions about whether the team might even deserve to jump unbeaten Florida State and grab the top spot. Auburn did get 23 first-place votes on Sunday.

''Deserving? I'm more on the side of we are going to keep on trucking and earn it,'' defensive tackle Gabe Wright said. ''I'm not even going to lie to you, after last year it's shown a lot that the rankings don't matter. Just play, just play your butts off. I think like with last year and nobody ranking us at all, I think this team just wants to keep on trucking. If we handle our business I feel like we'll be where we want to be at the end of the year.''

Auburn does have some perspective. The Tigers never even surfaced in the rankings last season until a win over Texas A&M on Oct. 19 but went to the BCS championship game. Cracking the Top 10 took two more weeks, and Auburn didn't rise to No. 2 until after beating Missouri in the SEC championship game on Dec. 7, with help from an Ohio State loss.

''Really on our team, I've not heard one player or coach even talk about being ranked or anything like that,'' Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. ''Our whole deal is at the end of the season. That's just the first game of the grind. We'll all sort it out at the end.''

This game, though, was sorted out at the beginning. Auburn jumped ahead 17-0 in the first 12 minutes, outgained LSU (4-2, 0-2) by more than double (566-280) and held the visiting Tigers to 0 for 13 on third downs.

It was an eye-catching performance for an Auburn team that had sputtered at times on offense against both Kansas State and Louisiana Tech. This time Nick Marshall both rushed and passed for two touchdowns to lead a balanced offensive effort.

The defense has held both LSU and No. 17 Kansas State below 300 yards in total offense.

''That was probably our best performance overall as a team,'' Malzahn said. ''We played well in certain units but that was an overall performance against a very good team.''

The win also snapped a three-game losing streak to LSU, including the only regular-season defeat in 2013. Malzahn emphasized that both before and after the game.

''Coach Malzahn asked us in a meeting (Friday) to raise our hands if we had beaten LSU,'' Auburn cornerback Trovon Reed said. ''Only one player raised his hand and that was Jeff Whitaker. He asked us the same question after the game and we were all able to raise our hands.''

The loss left LSU 0-2 in the SEC for the first time under coach Les Miles and with even more questions at quarterback. Freshman Brandon Harris started for the first time but completed only three passes and was replaced by sophomore Anthony Jennings in the third quarter.

''I do not know what to think of it,'' Miles said of the quarterback situation after the game.

Miles isn't interested in calling this a potential rebuilding year.

''I think all of our guys work hard and want to improve,'' he said. ''They want answers, and the film will be the answer. The coaches will collect it and get better. I do not think anybody wants a rebuilding year. That's not something that I have ever said.''

[StarDust Bum]

TCU back in Top 10 after beating Oklahoma

October 5, 2014



FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) - TCU coach Gary Patterson knows the real measure for his team in the Big 12 Conference comes after beating then-No. 4 Oklahoma.

In the minutes after the Horned Frogs pulled off a 37-33 victory over the eight-time Big 12 champion Sooners, with TCU fans still scattered on the field celebrating outside, Patterson delivered that reminder to his players in the locker room.

''Why are you guys so excited? If you want to be the program that you want to become, you've got to act like you just beat Minnesota or you just beat Samford or whoever you play,'' Patterson told them. ''Because you guys gotta do it next week. That's what this league is all about.''

Their reward for beating Oklahoma? The Frogs (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) moved to No. 9 in the new AP poll Sunday and have to get ready for another matchup of undefeated teams next Saturday at No. 5 Baylor (5-0, 2-0), the defending Big 12 champ.

''We know we've got a tough October,'' Patterson said. ''I've watched across the nation, and people make mistakes. They win games and put too much into it, and the next week they just don't show up.''

A week after its 2014 debut in the Top 25, TCU made a 16-spot jump Sunday in a new poll shaken up by all the upsets. The Frogs, in their third Big 12 season, are in the Top 10 for the first time since the final poll of the 2010 season, when they were No. 2 behind Auburn after finishing 13-0 with a Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin.

Oklahoma was among the five top-eight teams to open October with a loss after Trevor Knight's Hail Mary pass on the final play sailed out of the end zone.

The Sooners (4-1, 1-1), the first Top 10 team to lose in Fort Worth since 1965, dropped seven spots to No. 11 in the new poll.

But because of all the upsets to start October and more than half the regular season remaining, the Sooners still have plenty of time to recover and be in the mix for the new four-team College Football Playoff - if they remain a one-loss team.

''You don't look at the end of the season,'' Sooners coach Bob Stoops said. ''All we care about is next week. Period.''

While TCU plays in a top-10 matchup about 100 miles south, the first in Waco since 1956, Oklahoma plays its annual Red River Rivalry game against Texas (2-3, 1-1) at the State Fair of Texas before its first campus game in more than a month.

Knight, who had been 9-0 as Oklahoma's starting quarterback, said the Sooners know the loss to TCU ''isn't the defining moment'' of the season with so many games left.

''It's not frustrating,'' Sooners defensive tackle Chuka Ndulue said. ''We just need a short-term memory.''

Like TCU and Baylor, Oklahoma still has games left this season against No. 16 Oklahoma State and No. 17 Kansas State.

The Frogs are 4-0 for the fifth time in their last seven seasons, a stretch in which they also won three consecutive Mountain West titles without a league loss immediately preceding their move to the Big 12.

While there were some close calls - four losses by three points or less last season - the Frogs were 6-12 in Big 12 games their first two seasons in the power conference. They sent a strong message in their third league opener.

''Last year, I don't think we were clicking as a whole team,'' safety Chris Hackett said. ''This year, I think we're more focused as a whole team. Not just defense, not just offense, but as a whole. We got better.''

Sooner than most people expected.

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FBS

Associated Press Top 25

1. Florida State

2. Auburn

3. Ole Miss

3. Mississippi State

5. Baylor

6. Notre Dame

7. Alabama

8. Michigan State

9. TCU

10. Arizona

11. Oklahoma

12. Oregon

13. Georgia

14. Texas A&M

15. Ohio State

16. Oklahoma State

17. Kansas State

18. UCLA

19. East Carolina

20. Arizona State

21. Nebraska

22. Georgia Tech

23. Missouri

24. Utah

25. Stanford

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NCAAF opening line report: Ole Miss getting well-deserved respect

After a weekend that shuffled the odds deck for the college football playoff, Week 7 features more key games, with the Southeastern Conference again front and center. But with a twist.

Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+3)

Mississippi State (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) suddenly finds itself among those at the head of the class, and the Bulldogs will get a great chance to prove they belong when they host No. 2 Auburn (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) on Saturday.

Mississippi State is coming off a convincing 48-31 victory as a 2.5-point road favorite over then-unbeaten and seventh-ranked Texas A&M. The Tigers, meanwhile, dodged the carnage of top-10 losers in Week 6, hammering Louisiana State 41-7 as a 7-point home chalk.

Last year, Auburn needed a final-seconds TD to net a 24-20 home victory as a 6.5-point favorite.

“This is a very intriguing matchup and a tough one to set a line for,” said John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu. “It’s two of the most explosive offenses in the game, despite being ground-centered. This was a tight game last year, and it didn’t live up to the high-scoring hype.”

Mississippi Rebels at Texas A&M Aggies (-2)

Ole Miss (5-0, 4-0-1 ATS) also jumped into the playoff conversation by knocking off then-No. 1 Alabama on Saturday 24-17, getting 4 points at home. But the Rebels, now ranked fourth, will face a stewing A&M unit (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, No. 14 ranking) after the Aggies’ 48-31 loss catching 2.5 points at Mississippi State.

“We’ve had our doubts about the Aggies’ defense, and it certainly was exposed against Mississippi State,” Lester said. “On the other side, it’s confirmed that the Ole Miss defense is legit. This is a letdown spot for the Rebels, but I still like them to win here.”

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-14.5)

No. 9 Oklahoma (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) saw its national title hopes take a hefty blow in a 37-33 loss at Texas Christian as a 3.5-point road fave, and now must gear up for the Red River Rivalry at a neutral site – the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Texas (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) got drubbed on its home field as a 13.5-point ‘dog Saturday, falling 28-7 to now No. 3 Baylor.

“Well, the Red River Rivalry isn’t much of a showdown these days. And it lost even more luster after OU’s loss on Saturday,” Lester said. “Texas was in a good position to play well (vs. Baylor) and fell flat on its face. I’m not expecting a shootout here – more of a defensive battle.”

Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins (+3.5)

Both these teams got bit by the Week 6 upset bug and now must regroup if they have any hope of winning the Pac-12 title and earning a spot in the season-ending four-team playoff. Oregon (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS), which was ranked fourth and was a massive 21.5-point home chalk last Thursday against Arizona, lost to the Wildcats 31-24 and dropped to 11th in the rankings.

On Saturday, UCLA trailed the entire way against Utah until a touchdown with 4:50 remaining gave the Bruins a 28-27 lead. But Jim Mora’s troops, laying 13 points at home, lost outright 30-27 on a last-minute Utes field goal. UCLA (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) dropped from ninth to 17th in the coaches poll.

“Which one of these teams is going to be able to bounce back from the devastating loss?” Lester said. “Like we’re seeing with the Eagles in the NFL, the Ducks’ offensive line is beat up, hindering their offensive ability. UCLA has some serious issues along the line as well.”

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4th Quarter Covers - Week 6

October 6, 2014


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the sixth college football weekend as October started with 11 Top 25 teams losing. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

UCF (+2½) 17, Houston 12: The Knights led 17-6 entering the fourth quarter in this Thursday night AAC clash, but things got very interesting in the fourth quarter. Houston added two field goals in the fourth quarter to get within five points and in the final minutes the Cougars drove deep into Central Florida territory, sitting with first and goal from the 10 yard line. A holding penalty pushed Houston back 10 yards, but on the next play back-up quarterback Greg Ward scrambled 19 yards diving into the end zone. The ball came out just before he reached the goal line and went out of bounds for a touchback to seal the minor upset for UCF. Had Houston scored the touchdown, they would have gone for two in what would have been the spread result deciding play.

Florida State (-37½) 43, Wake Forest 3: The top-ranked Seminoles were yet to win ATS in a 4-0 start and with just a 13-3 lead at the half in this game, covering the over five-touchdown spread seemed unlikely. Florida State added 17 points in the third quarter and then led 40-3 after a 59-yard touchdown pass from Jameis Winston who was still in the game with nine minutes to go. With less than five minutes to go, Florida State would add a short field goal to slip by the massive spread as Wake Forest did not have a drive longer than 29 yards in the game.

Virginia (-5½) 24, Pittsburgh 19: The Cavaliers dominated the first half of this game going up 24-3 after a defensive touchdown. Pittsburgh chipped away with 10 points in the third quarter, sitting down by 11. Virginia forced Pittsburgh to punt with about five minutes to go after a sack put the Panthers in a 4th-and-long, but they were able to pin Virginia deep. Virginia picked up one first down but Pittsburgh used its timeouts and forced Virginia to punt with about two minutes left in the game. The punt return proved to be one of Pittsburgh’s best plays of the game as Tyler Boyd returned the kick 45 yards, basically right back to the line of scrimmage. Three plays later, Pittsburgh was in the end zone for a spread spoiling touchdown. The line on this game fluctuated from an opening line of -5, down to -4½ then up to -6½ before falling back down to -5 late in the week before a late rise to -5½. The two-point conversion attempt would prove very important to those involved at any price and the Panthers missed the attempt and failed to get the on-side kick to leave the final margin at five and leaving most with a push.

West Virginia (-27½) 33, Kansas 14: The price on the Mountaineers climbed sharply with Kansas firing Charlie Weis last week, but it looked like West Virginia would run away with this game up 26-0 at the half. The only scoring for the Mountaineers after halftime came on a 94-yard kickoff return and with West Virginia leading by 26, past the early week spread, Kansas scored with just over two minutes left in the game on a 76-yard punt return to seal the underdog cover despite a 381 yard edge for the host.

Kentucky (+4½) 45, South Carolina 38: The spread on the road favorite was cut in half from an opening number of -7 before jumping a point Saturday to -4½. It looked like the Gamecocks were pulling away, leading by seven after 91-yard drive late in the third quarter and leading 38-24 early in the fourth. After a strong kick return, Kentucky found the end zone to get back within seven and just a few minutes later, the game was tied with the Wildcats going 75 yards on seven consecutive rushes on its next possession. South Carolina had nearly three minutes to work with to win the game, but Dylan Thompson was intercepted for a short return touchdown to put the Wildcats in line for the upset. The next South Carolina drive also ended in an interception and Kentucky was able to run out the clock for a huge win for the growing program.

Bowling Green (-3) 36, Buffalo 35: The Bulls squandered an early lead in this game as Bowling Green led 30-28 entering the fourth quarter. Buffalo took the lead back halfway through the final frame, but Bowling Green answered with a four-play drive for 80 yards to lead 36-35. Up by one, Bowling Green went for two and failed, ruining a chance for a fortunate push for those on the home favorite at the late week price. With the help of a penalty, Bowling Green was inside the Buffalo 20 in the final seconds, but Buffalo had exhausted its timeouts and there was no need for the spread saving score.

Akron (-26) 31, Eastern Michigan 6: After the big win on Pittsburgh, the spread for the Zips climbed all week from as low as -21. The difference proved critical in this game as Akron scored five seconds into the fourth quarter to lead by 25. Just a few plays later, it seemed that the Zips were lined up for another score to get past the closing spread after recovering a fumble in Eastern Michigan territory. Eventually with a 4th-and-6 from the Eastern Michigan 7-yard line, the Zips went for it rather than kicking and came up just short. The Eagles nearly made it a clear underdog cover as they drove 84 yards before another fumble and once again Akron would go for it on 4th-and-goal, coming up short again as the Zips avoided the kicking game to cost chalk bettors.

Rice (-6) 28, Hawaii 14: Rice trailed 14-7 in the second half in this game and the game was tied until Rice scored with just over four minutes to go in the game, going up by seven just by the favorite spread. Hawaii would cross midfield, but the Warriors could not answer and in the final seconds the Owls added a 31-yard touchdown pass on 4th-and-long to seal the game.

Colorado State (-18) 42, Tulsa 17: The Rams were in control the entire way in this game, including leading 28-0 at one point, but early in the fourth quarter, a 62-yard Tulsa touchdown put the Hurricane right on the spread, trailing 35-17. Colorado State would get its own big pass play behind back-up quarterback Nick Stevens with about five minutes to go and in the final minute, a Tulsa drive to the Colorado State 21-yard line was not enough.

Notre Dame (+2½) 17, Stanford 14: This game was tied 7-7 entering the fourth quarter, but Stanford appeared to take control with a touchdown to go up 14-10 with just three minutes left. The Irish needed a touchdown and faced with a 4th-and-11 play, Everett Golson hit a wide open Ben Koyack for a 23-yard touchdown for the win.

Florida (PK) 10, Tennessee 9: The Volunteers have lost a number of close games in SEC play the last two years, but this week it looked like Tennessee was in control with a shutout through three quarters, but up just 9-0 settling for field goals. Behind back-up quarterback Treon Harris, the Gators finally took advantage to good field position with the first touchdown of the game early in the fourth quarter and then with about six minutes to go, kicker Austin Hardin connected from 49 yards. On its final drive, Tennessee got past midfield but an interception ended the threat to leave the Volunteers with another narrow defeat.

Baylor (-14½) 28, Texas 7: The Bears did not put up their customary passing numbers as Bryce Petty did not have a great game, but Baylor was in control with its defense, scoring on a blocked field goal return for the only score of the first half and adding an offensive score in the third quarter to lead by 14. Baylor doubled that margin with two fourth quarter touchdowns as a late Texas score was not enough for the Longhorns, who played commendably on defense but could not overcome three turnovers.

Oklahoma State (-17) 37, Iowa State 20: Oklahoma State settled for field goals in the first half to keep Iowa State in this game, but the second half opened with a 97-yard kickoff return touchdown and just seconds into the fourth quarter, Oklahoma State was up by 24 despite relatively even yardage in the game. With less than a minute to go, Iowa State completed a scoring drive to leave the final margin right on the common number.

Mississippi (+5½) 23, Alabama 17: Alabama led 17-10 entering the fourth quarter, but a key a play came from Ole Miss punter Will Gleeson, who pinned the Tide at the one-yard line with eight minutes to go. The Tide were stopped and forced to punt, handing the Rebels the ball just past midfield. Mississippi needed just three plays to connect for a big pass play to tie the game. On the kickoff, Alabama fumbled as the momentum had turned and Mississippi came through with the go-ahead score with less than three minutes to go. The jubilation in Oxford was muted with a blocked extra point as Alabama was handed the ball down just six. An illegal block on the return put the Tide back with a long field, however, with another mistake on special teams. Alabama connected for a few nice gains and wound up to the Mississippi 22-yard line before another penalty pushed Alabama backwards. On 2nd-and-long, Blake Sims appeared to deliver a touchdown strike, but it was Mississippi defender Senquez Golson coming down with the ball, ruled an interception after review and sealing a huge win for the Rebels.

Middle Tennessee State (-17½) 37, Southern Miss 31: Middle Tennessee State went up by 19 twice in the fourth quarter, but Southern Miss kept playing, eventually posting pretty impressive passing totals as the Golden Eagles scored twice in the second half of the fourth quarter to make the final score look closer than this game was.

Oregon State (-4½) 36, Colorado 31: Oregon State led by just two entering the fourth quarter, but they quickly pushed that margin to nine points in the final frame. Most of the week, the Beavers were favored by 6-7 points so most on the Buffaloes would wind up still winning despite the late line move. It did not look promising when Oregon State went up by 12 with about five minutes to go, however. The Beavers went for two after the touchdown, a key play for many scenarios but the attempt failed, allowing Colorado to get within five on its answering touchdown with three minutes to go. Colorado would get the ball back in good field position in the final two minutes for a legitimate shot at the upset but they failed to pick up a first down.

California (+4) 60, Washington State 59: With a total of 70, high scoring was certainly expected in this Pac-12 clash, but this game took that to a whole another level in the second half. The Bears and Cougars traded touchdowns for a whopping 56 points in the third quarter alone, leaving the home favorite up by 11 entering the fourth quarter, but with no lead safe. California took a 54-52 lead about halfway through the final frame with a blocked extra point looking potentially meaningful in the spread picture as a Washington State touchdown would put them up five. That is exactly what happened with about four minutes to go in the game, but only took California 61 seconds to get the lead back. California went for two and failed setting Washington State up for the win as they settled in for a 19-yard field goal attempt, kicking on third down despite still having 19 seconds on the clock. The kick was wide right, leaving Connor Halliday’s new single-game passing record in a losing effort.

Rutgers (-3) 26, Michigan 20: Rutgers led by two entering the fourth quarter, but the Knights pulled ahead of the spread that fluctuated between -2 and -3 much of the week with a touchdown early in the fourth to go up by nine. Michigan would answer to get back within two and the Wolverines had the ball back in the closing minutes. Michigan would attempt a 56-yard field goal with about three minutes to go, but Rutgers blocked it and then picked up a first down to be able to run out the clock in Michigan territory.

Michigan State (-7) 27, Nebraska 22: Michigan State completely dominated this game for three quarters, leading by 24 heading into the final frame. A strong punt return put Nebraska in good field position, but on first down, quarterback Tommy Armstrong was injured on a scramble. A personal foul penalty helped the cause and Nebraska was able to find the end zone, but the Huskers failed going for two, still trailing by 18. On Nebraska’s next possession, they could not quite get into field goal range and had to go for it on fourth down, coming up short with Armstrong back in the game. Michigan State was able to burn some clock, but did not add points and Nebraska again put together a scoring drive with two penalties being big plays. Michigan State still led by 11 with less than four minutes to go and Nebraska out of timeouts when they punted the ball back to the Huskers. De’Mornay Pierson-El returned the kick 62 yards for a touchdown to get within five and putting the underdog in position for an improbable cover. Michigan State appeared poised to pull just past the spread, but a short field goal was missed with a minute to go although the Spartans defense was able to hold with an interception as Nebraska threatened on the final drive.

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NCAAF Week 7 line watch: Take Huskies closer to kickoff

Spread to bet now

Oklahoma State Cowboys (-20) at Kansas Jayhawks

Oklahoma State is currently a 20-point road favorite over Kansas, but I anticipate this line closing at 3 touchdowns or more. The Cowboys have a tendency to blow out bad teams as head coach Mike Gundy is never shy about running up the score.

Kansas is one of the worst teams in the country, and the Jayhawks are a dysfunctional mess after firing head coach Charlie Weis before last week’s game. Kansas showed nothing last week as they had just nine first downs and 176 yards of total offense in a 33-14 loss to West Virginia. Bettors should play this game now, and lay less than the expected 21-point spread.


Spread to wait on

Washington Huskies (+2.5) at California Golden Bears

Washington actually briefly opened as a road favorite at a few sportsbooks on Sunday afternoon, with other books opening California as a 1-point home favorite. The money quickly came in on California and by Monday afternoon the line had already risen to 2.5. With California's recent results, this line might hit the key number of '3' as the week goes on. California is off three straight last-minute wins, and they are getting publicity because of it.

Washington is flying under the radar under new head coach Chris Peterson. The Huskies are 4-1 SU with their lone loss coming by seven points (20-13) to Stanford in their last game. Washington comes into this game off a bye, so they will be the much fresher team. Wait and take the Huskies at a better line closer to kick off.


Total to watch

Louisville Cardinals at Clemson Tigers

Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino has a reputation of running high-scoring offensive teams. However, this version of the Cardinals is exactly the opposite as they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. Louisville is also playing with a true freshman at quarterback, so Petrino’s offense has been unable to get going this season. WR DeVante Parker is also battling a foot injury.

Clemson is known for their offensive success, but after losing their most productive players from last year’s team, including QB Tajh Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins, the Tigers have relied on their defense this season. Clemson did score 91 points in their past two games, but those points came against two of the worst defenses in the country. The oddsmakers will inflate this total on perception, so there will be value on the Under, especially if the total is posted in the high 50’s.