The Bum's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

[StarDust Bum]

TOP TRENDS


CFB > (343) HAWAII@ (344) COLORADO | 09/20/2014 - 02:00 PM

Play AGAINST HAWAII using the money line in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63
The record is 6 Wins and 14 Losses for the since 1992 (-23.05 units)

CFB > (321) C MICHIGAN@ (322) KANSAS | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play ON C MICHIGAN using the money line in road lined games
The record is 7 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+16.35 units)

CFB > (327) TULANE@ (328) DUKE | 09/20/2014 - 12:30 PM

Play AGAINST DUKE using the money line when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 7 Wins and 22 Losses for the since 1992 (-25.7 units)

CFB > (373) LOUISVILLE@ (374) FLA INTERNATIONAL | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play UNDER LOUISVILLE on the total versus the first half line in all games
The record is 1 Overs and 13 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.9 units)

CFB > (313) IOWA@ (314) PITTSBURGH | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play AGAINST IOWA using the money line in road games
The record is 44 Wins and 56 Losses for the since 1992 (-70.85 units)

CFB > (385) NEW MEXICO@ (386) NEW MEXICO ST | 09/20/2014 - 08:00 PM

Play AGAINST NEW MEXICO using the money line in September games
The record is 9 Wins and 24 Losses for the since 1992 (-28.15 units)

CFB > (319) IDAHO@ (320) OHIO U | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play AGAINST OHIO U using the money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 3 Wins and 5 Losses for the last two seasons (-18.9 units)

CFB > (335) UTAH@ (336) MICHIGAN | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play AGAINST UTAH using the money line in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56
The record is 4 Wins and 7 Losses for the since 1992 (-19.95 units)

CFB > (329) ARMY@ (330) WAKE FOREST | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play AGAINST ARMY using the against the spread in road games
The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-11 units)

CFB > (381) N ILLINOIS@ (382) ARKANSAS | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play AGAINST N ILLINOIS using the money line in games played on turf
The record is 25 Wins and 25 Losses for the since 1992 (-44.8 units)

CFB > (323) TROY@ (324) GEORGIA | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play AGAINST TROY using the money line in games played on a grass field
The record is 11 Wins and 28 Losses for the since 1992 (-29.7 units)

CFB > (325) BOWLING GREEN@ (326) WISCONSIN | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play UNDER BOWLING GREEN on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.8 units)

CFB > (335) UTAH@ (336) MICHIGAN | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play UNDER UTAH on the total as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)

CFB > (323) TROY@ (324) GEORGIA | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play OVER GEORGIA on the total in September games
The record is 9 Overs and 0 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)

CFB > (387) MIAMI@ (388) NEBRASKA | 09/20/2014 - 08:00 PM

Play OVER MIAMI on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)

CFB > (381) N ILLINOIS@ (382) ARKANSAS | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play UNDER N ILLINOIS on the total as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the since 1992 (+10.9 units)

CFB > (315) BALL ST@ (316) TOLEDO | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play OVER TOLEDO on the total against conference opponents
The record is 31 Overs and 9 Unders for the since 1992 (+21.1 units)

CFB > (307) INDIANA@ (308) MISSOURI | 09/20/2014 - 04:00 PM

Play UNDER MISSOURI on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)

CFB > (391) CALIFORNIA@ (392) ARIZONA | 09/20/2014 - 10:00 PM

Play AGAINST ARIZONA using the against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points
The record is 2 Wins and 14 Losses for the since 1992 (-13.4 units)

CFB > (371) OLD DOMINION@ (372) RICE | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play ON RICE using the against the spread against conference opponents
The record is 56 Wins and 22 Losses for the since 1992 (+31.8 units)

CFB > (305) CONNECTICUT@ (306) S FLORIDA | 09/19/2014 - 08:00 PM

Play AGAINST S FLORIDA using the against the spread as a favorite
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (-8.8 units)

CFB > (327) TULANE@ (328) DUKE | 09/20/2014 - 12:30 PM

Play AGAINST DUKE in the first half in September games
The record is 10 Wins and 31 Losses for the since 1992 (-24.1 units)

CFB > (369) TEXAS ST@ (370) ILLINOIS | 09/20/2014 - 04:00 PM

Play AGAINST ILLINOIS in the first half when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 4 Wins and 17 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.7 units)

CFB > (323) TROY@ (324) GEORGIA | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play AGAINST GEORGIA in the first half in non-conference games
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-10 units)

CFB > (349) APPALACHIAN ST@ (350) SOUTHERN MISS | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play AGAINST SOUTHERN MISS using the against the spread in games played on turf
The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.8 units)

CFB > (343) HAWAII@ (344) COLORADO | 09/20/2014 - 02:00 PM

Play AGAINST COLORADO in the first half when playing on a Saturday
The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.8 units)

CFB > (315) BALL ST@ (316) TOLEDO | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play ON BALL ST in the first half versus the 1rst half line in road games
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)

CFB > (331) N CAROLINA@ (332) E CAROLINA | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play ON E CAROLINA in the first half in games played on a grass field
The record is 16 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.6 units)

CFB > (343) HAWAII@ (344) COLORADO | 09/20/2014 - 02:00 PM

Play ON HAWAII using the against the spread in non-conference games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)

CFB > (361) GEORGIA TECH@ (362) VIRGINIA TECH | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play AGAINST GEORGIA TECH using the against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

CFB > (379) MISSISSIPPI ST@ (380) LSU | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play ON MISSISSIPPI ST in the first half versus the first half line in all games
The record is 13 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.7 units)

[StarDust Bum]

CFB > (329) ARMY@ (330) WAKE FOREST | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play AGAINST ARMY using the against the spread in road games
The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-11 units)

CFB > (391) CALIFORNIA@ (392) ARIZONA | 09/20/2014 - 10:00 PM

Play AGAINST ARIZONA using the against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points
The record is 2 Wins and 14 Losses for the since 1992 (-13.4 units)

CFB > (371) OLD DOMINION@ (372) RICE | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play ON RICE using the against the spread against conference opponents
The record is 56 Wins and 22 Losses for the since 1992 (+31.8 units)

CFB > (349) APPALACHIAN ST@ (350) SOUTHERN MISS | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play AGAINST SOUTHERN MISS using the against the spread in games played on turf
The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.8 units)

CFB > (343) HAWAII@ (344) COLORADO | 09/20/2014 - 02:00 PM

Play ON HAWAII using the against the spread in non-conference games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)

CFB > (361) GEORGIA TECH@ (362) VIRGINIA TECH | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play AGAINST GEORGIA TECH using the against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

[StarDust Bum]

Florida at Alabama

September 18, 2014


For the first time in three seasons, Alabama and Florida will square off Saturday afternoon at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide will be seeking a fourth consecutive win over the Gators, who haven't beaten 'Bama since a 35-24 triumph in the 2008 SEC Championship Game at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.

As of Thursday, most books had Alabama (3-0 straight up, 0-2-1 against the spread) listed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 52. Gamblers can take UF on the money line for a +500 return (risk $100 to win $500).

Nick Saban's team opened the season with a 33-23 non-covering win over West Va. at the Ga. Dome. Alabama never led by more than 10 points and came nowhere close to taking the cash as a 22-point favorite. T.J. Yeldon ran 23 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns, while Derrick Henry produced 113 rushing yards and one TD on 17 totes. Blake Sims threw for 250 yards with Amari Cooper making 12 catches for 130 yards.

Since then, 'Bama has recorded a pair of lopsided victories at home over FAU (41-0) and Southern Miss (52-12). The win over the Owls was a 'no-play' because weather forced the game to be postponed before 55 minutes of play. The line had closed at 'Bama -42.

Sims has secured the starting QB job ahead of FSU transfer Jacob Coker. Sims has completed 47-of-63 throws (74.6%) for 626 passing yards with a 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 102 yards and two scores while averaging 7.3 yards per carry.

Yeldon has rushed for 225 yards and two TDs, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Henry has 209 rushing yards and one score while averaging 6.3 YPC. Cooper leads the SEC in receptions (33) and receiving yards (454) and has a pair of TD catches.

After its opener vs. Idaho was postponed due to lightning, Florida (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) opened the season with a 65-0 clubbing of Eastern Michigan. The Gators dealt out cream-cheese treatment as 40.5-point favorites.

Will Muschamp's squad is coming off a 36-30 win over Kentucky in triple overtime. UF never threatened to cover the 17.5-point spread at The Swamp, while the 'over' hit for a second straight week thanks to the OTs (more on those details below...).

Matt Jones rushed 29 times for 156 yards, including the game-winning TD plunge from one yard out in triple OT. Jeff Driskel threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, while DeMarcus Robinson enjoyed a breakout performance with 15 receptions for 216 yards and a pair of scores.

With the exception of missing a number of throws in the first half against UK, Driskel has looked solid in new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper's hurry-up offense that's better suited to his skills. The fourth-year junior has connected on 63.6 percent of his passes for 543 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. Robinson, a true sophomore, has emerged as the team's go-to WR with 21 catches for 339 yards and three TDs.

After missing most of last season with a knee injury, Jones has rushed for 221 yards and a pair of scores with a 6.0 YPC average. Sophomore Kelvin Taylor has 132 rushing yards and two TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC.

Dating back to last season, Alabama is mired in a 0-5-2 ATS slump. As a home favorite during Saban's tenure, 'Bama owns a 23-24-1 spread record.

On Muschamp's watch, UF has posted a 4-3 spread record as a road underdog.

The 'over' is 2-0 for both of these schools this season. Remember, wagers on the total were ruled 'no action' in 'Bama's win over FAU.

Florida hasn't tasted a victory in Tuscaloosa since 1998, although that stat is a bit misleading in that it has only played at Alabama twice since then. Both of those trips to T-town were miserable ones for UF. In 2005, the biggest moment of Mike Shula's tenure was a beatdown to the Gators by a 31-3 count in a game that was over in the first quarter.

In 2010, Urban Meyer inexplicably had John Brantley running the option and taking big hits in a 31-6 setback.

CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E's Bonus Nuggets**

-- Bettors backing the UF-UK game to stay 'under' 54 combined points were delivered a gut-wrenching defeat. The Gators' win went to the extra sessions with the score knotted at 20-20.

-- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings between UF and 'Bama, the Tide has compiled an 8-1-1 spread record.

-- When Florida State announced the suspension of QB Jameis Winston for the first half of Saturday's game against Clemson on Wednesday morning, books yanked the line of 19.5 or 20 off the board. When the number re-surfaced that afternoon, it was at 16.5 or 17.

--Duke is on a 9-1-1 ATS roll in its last 11 games as a home favorite going back to a 2011 win over Tulane both SU and ATS. The Green Wave returns to Durham this weekend as a 17-point underdog.

-- Arizona State QB Taylor Kelly has been ruled out of next Thursday's home game vs. UCLA. Kelly's foot injury could keep him out for much longer.

--West Virginia starting cornerback Daryl Worley has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Worley had 17 tackles and a team-high two interceptions through three games. A report on Wednesday revealed that Worley is facing a battery charge against a woman.

-- Utah State QB Chuckie Keeton is out for Saturday's game at Arkansas St. due to a knee injury. The Aggies are hopeful that Keeton, who saw his 2013 season ended by an ACL tear, will be able to return for an Oct. 3 game at BYU after an open date. Keeton has enjoyed an outstanding career, but he's struggled through three games with a 2/4 TD-INT ratio. He came into the year with a 56/13 career TD-INT ratio and 14 rushing TDs. In last week's 36-24 win over Wake Forest, Darell Garretson completed 11-of-16 passes for 121 yards with one TD and one interception. Garretson made seven starts as a true freshman last season, posting a 10/7 TD-INT ratio.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Notes - Week 4

September 19, 2014

Week 3 Recap

There was a good mix of total winners in Week 3 and for those keeping records, the ‘over’ produced a 28-23 mark in Week 3 in the 51 matchups between FBS schools. After this weekend most teams will have completed at least a third of the regular season, which gives bettors a good sample to analyze. Heading into Week 4, total players can start to see glaring tendencies.

Based on our numbers, these teams have all seen the OVER go 3-0 in their first three games - Fresno State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Tulsa, Middle Tennessee State, Tulane, Toledo, Buffalo, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky and Georgia Tech.

Schools that have watched the UNDER go 3-0 are Nevada, Tennessee, Houston, Navy, Ball State and Wyoming.

Should bettors ride these outcomes, perhaps go the other way? We asked that question to VegasInsider.com totals expert James Manos and he gave us a quick snapshot of his handicapping approach.

He explained, “When handicapping totals and looking to make OVER bets, I prefer to look at two major categories, my offensive efficiency ratings and the matchups. I prefer to find teams with efficient offensive units that have quality matchups rather than look for a mediocre offense to take advantage of an inefficient or poor defense but, as always, each game must be evaluated on its own merits with all factors considered. When deciding on UNDER plays I prefer to look at my defensive efficiency ratings and pace statistics (plays per game, points per play, % of rushing plays).”

For those individuals who have time and a passion for understanding the totals market more, I would recommend visiting a site like www.teamrankings.com. They have stats upon stats that can only help you with your selections.

Game of the Week - Clemson at Florida State

Editor's Note: On late Friday night, Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended for the entire game vs. Clemson after further investigation by the school. FSU-Clemson Line Moves

The ACC takes center stage on Saturday night as the Tigers and Seminoles knock heads again. Due to the Jameis Winston suspension for Florida State, I asked Manos for his thoughts on the matchup and how he would look to bet the game and halves.

“Normally, I would avoid a situation like this but this setup seems too juicy to ignore and these are two teams that I know something about. I made the original line for this game FSU -17 but was unwilling to back Clemson unless I could get +21 or better. The line nearly got there (peaking at a widely available +20.5) but has now returned to this number with the suspension of QB Winston for the 1st half.

Probably NO player in the country has meant more to his team over the last 1-plus seasons than Winston and his loss for the 1st half of this game could be very detrimental. But essentially, considering the opener, the books are only crediting Winston's absence with two points of value (or a full game +4.5).
I think that's an underestimation and places value on the Tigers at that number but it's been scooped up by the professional all over. As of Friday, Clemson is now a 15-point underdog or less at books.

Both teams had byes prior to this meeting but now the ‘Noles only have two full practices to get a redshirt freshman QB with 21 career pass attempts ready to play against a Top 20 defense. Florida State has struggled to find playmakers at the WR position this season and in the 1st half of this game, I expect a heavy dose of RB Williams.

Clemson's defense struggled vs Georgia's solid ground game but most of that came in the 4th quarter when the Tigers were exhausted from an inept offense leaving them on the field too long. Clemson OC Morris has been known to take more chances in situations like this and with two weeks to prepare expect some packages for electric freshman QB Watson, who has seen playing time in both games so far this year and looked good.

Two good defenses should control the first half of this game and when Winston returns in the 2nd half he'll likely have just 7 possessions and 37 plays or so to make a difference. My numbers show FSU with an expectation of .631 points per play with Winston in the game vs. an average defense but Clemson is no average defense. Adjusted for Clemson's defensive efficiency and backup QB Maquire playing the entire first half, I have the ‘Noles scoring 34-36 points in this game. With an extra week to prepare and an excellent OC in Morris I expect the Clemson offense to be better than it was vs Georgia especially after the confidence building win over South Carolina State. I like the Tigers chances to score more than 20 points in this contest and if they can somehow receive the 2nd half kickoff and generate a drive, they will cut into Winston's potential number of plays even more. With that being said, I would grab the points!

The movement downward is correct and the adjustment is accurate. I think UNDER for the game offers more value than the UNDER for the 1st half as we may see some trick plays from both sides in the first stanza and as I mentioned above, if Clemson receives the 2nd half kickoff they could limit Winston's participation even more.”



Line Moves

In last week’s Total Notes piece, Manos touched on how he analyzes line movements in the totals market and divided the shifts into four categories. He also provided examples of each category.

1) Correct sharp movement - Indiana/Bowling Green OVER

If you check the moves on this matchup, you’ll see an opener of 64 and the line closed as high as 76. That’s a 12-point shift, which is ridiculous. After a slow start, Bowling Green beat Indiana 45-42 in a shootout as all tickets cashed.

2) Incorrect sharp movement - Nevada/Arizona OVER

This number opened 60 and closed as high as 66 ½. Some bettors might’ve scored a middle with Arizona winning 35-28.

3) Public movement - Georgia/South Carolina OVER

Big television games garner attention and despite a delayed start to weather, South Carolina defeated Georgia 38-35. This line jumped up during the week but the weather drove the number back in the neighborhood of the opener (58.5).

4) Market manipulation - Western Kentucky/Middle Tennessee UNDER

This number opened at 67 and received plenty of attention all week at the betting counter. The number closed at 64 and even though the final score was 50-47, make a note that 29 points came in overtime.

Manos has listed four examples for Week 4 that fit into his line movement categories.

1) Correct sharp movement - San Diego State/Oregon State OVER
2) Incorrect sharp movement - Tulane/Duke OVER
3) Public movement - North Carolina/East Carolina OVER
4) Market manipulation - Middle Tennessee State/Memphis UNDER

Some VI users have asked me why I use CRIS aka Bookmaker as source to track moves. Put simply, outside of CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) in Las Vegas, CRIS has a very strong reputation as an offshore outfit and they post early numbers on totals.

Listed below are all of the total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday afternoon.

Week 4 Moves

Rotation Open Current

**Ball State at Toledo 67 59

**Central Michigan at Kansas 48 45

Troy at Georgia 69 64

Bowling Green at Wisconsin 61 64

Tulane at Army 54.5 58

Army at Wake Forest 51 47

**San Jose State at Minnesota 56.5 51.5

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State 57 52

South Carolina at Vanderbilt 57.5 52.5

Middle Tennesse State at Memphis 65.5 60

Appalachian State at Southern Mississippi 62.5 59.5

Florida at Alabama 53.5 50.5

UNLV at Houston 57.5 62.5

Oregon at Washington State 73.5 77.5

**Clemson at Florida State 66 59.5

Virginia at BYU 51.5 48

Louisville at Florida International 48 44

Utah State at Arkansas State 54 50

Miami, Fl. at Nebraska 61 55.5

Oklahoma at West Virginia 62 65

California at Arizona 66 69.5

** Denotes key injuries to offensive players

[StarDust Bum]

Oklahoma at West Virginia

September 19, 2014


Oklahoma will put its unbeaten record on the line in a dangerous road game Saturday at West Virginia. As of late Friday afternoon, most books had the Sooners installed as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 65. Gamblers can take the Mountaineers on the money line for a +240 payout (risk $100 to win $240).

For first-half wagers, Oklahoma (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) is favored by 4.5 points with a total of 33.

Bob Stoops's team has been impressive in convincing wins over La. Tech (48-16), Tulsa (52-7) and Tennessee (34-10). The Sooners dropped the Volunteers as 21-point home favorites last weekend.

Trevor Knight threw for 308 yards and one touchdown and also had a rushing score. Sterling Shepard had five catches for 109 yards, and Julian Wilson put the game away and got OU ahead of the number for the first time with a 100-yard interception return for a TD.

Coming off a disastrous 4-8 season, West Virginia (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) wasn't given much respect coming into the 2014 campaign. However, the Mountaineers are a clearly improved team that's getting terrific QB play from FSU transfer Clint Trickett, who is third in the nation with 1,224 passing yards. Trickett has completed 75.4 percent of his throws with a 7/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has a rushing score.

Trickett was brilliant in last week's 40-37 win at Maryland as a three-point underdog. He connected on 37-of-49 throws for 511 yards and four TDs. Kevin White had 13 receptions for 216 yards and one TD, while Mario Alford had 11 catches for 131 yards and two scores.

After trailing 28-6 in the first half, the Terrapins battled back to tie the game at 37-37 in the final stanza. But WVU got a 47-yard field goal as time expired to preserve the victory.

Dana Holgorsen's team started the season at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta, where it gave Alabama fits for 60 minutes. The Crimson Tide eventually captured a 33-23 win, but it never threatened to cover the spread as a 22-point 'chalk.'

Oklahoma will be without leading rusher Keith Ford, who suffered a slightly fractured ankle against UT. Ford, who will miss 2-3 weeks, has rushed for 194 yards and five TDs on 34 carries. He's also made six receptions for 100 yards and one TD.

Knight has completed 60-of-101 passes (59.4%) for 860 yards with a 4/2 TD-INT ratio. The third-year sophomore also has a pair of rushing scores and a 4.9 yards-per-carry average.

Shepard has been Knight's favorite target, hauling in 17 receptions for 335 yards and two TDs. Durron Neal has 15 catches for 183 yards.

WVU has been a home underdog five times during Holgorsen's tenure, going 2-3 ATS. Since 2004, OU has a 16-19-1 spread record as a road favorite.

The 'over' has hit at a 2-1 clip for both schools this year. Going back to last season, WVU has seen the 'over' go 8-2 in its last 10 outings.

When these teams met in Norman last year, OU captured a 16-7 win but failed to cover the number as a 21-point home favorite. In 2012, Oklahoma was fortunate to escape Morgantown with a 50-49 win as an 11.5-point 'chalk.' The Sooners let four separate double-digit leads get away and got the game-winning score with only 24 seconds remaining.

West Va. won't have starting cornerback Daryl Worley, who has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Worley had 17 tackles and a team-high two interceptions through three games.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 20

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Clemson at Florida State
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles (-14.5, 57.5)

Already facing one of the biggest potential hurdles in its national title defense, Florida State will have to take on visiting Clemson with its Heisman Trophy quarterback on the bench. The top-ranked Seminoles will play without Jameis Winston, who was benched for disciplinary reasons after shouting a vulgar phrase on campus Tuesday. Winston's absence, which was originally to be only for the first half but was extended to the full game late Friday following a "continued investigation," opens the door for the No. 24 Tigers to claim their first victory over a top-ranked team.

The Seminoles are riding an 18-game winning streak and have won 15 straight against ACC foes, but Winston's latest off-field transgression has put them in a tough spot against a capable conference opponent. "I did something, so I've got to accept my consequences," Winston said in a press conference Wednesday. "We're going to think about moving forward and winning the game." Sophomore Sean Maguire is expected to make his first career start in place of Winston, who rolled up 444 passing yards in last year's 51-14 win at Clemson.

TV: 8:18 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: At the Westgate LV Superbook, the Noles opened as 20-point faves, but dropped to -12.5 after Winston's full suspension was announced. The total opened at 61.5 but is now 56.5

INJURY REPORT: Clemson - S Travis Blanks (Questionable, knee). Florida State - LB Ukeme Eligwe (Probably, foot).

ABOUT CLEMSON (1-1, 0-0 ACC): The Tigers were shut out in the second half of a season-opening 45-21 loss to Georgia, but they took out their offensive frustrations on South Carolina State two weeks ago, racking up 735 total yards in a 73-7 victory. Quarterback Cole Stoudt has passed for 446 yards and just one touchdown while no running back has more than 82 yards for the Tigers, who need some playmakers to emerge to upset the Seminoles. Clemson will look for star defensive end Vic Beasley to harass Maguire and Winston and add to his 23 career sacks, the most among active FBS players.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (2-0, 0-0): The Seminoles have scored 30 or more points in 17 consecutive games, but that could be put to the test without their star quarterback. Winston's absence also has an impact on receiver Rashad Greene, whose 283 receiving yards are the most in school history through two games. Luckily for the Seminoles, they can lean on a stout defense that has been especially strong against the pass, allowing 137.5 yards per game through the air.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Florida State.
* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Seminoles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Home team is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 62 percent of bettors are backing the visiting Tigers.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Saturday's games
Top games of week
Pitt rushed for 300+ yards in all three wins this year; they outrushed BC 302-142, inpressive after Eagles whacked USC in next game. Panthers are 5-2 in last seven games as home favorite. Iowa ran ball for just 131 ypg in 2-1 start, scoring 17 in each of its last two games, loss to Iowa State, fortunate win over Ball State. Hawkeyes are 3-6 in last nine games as a road dog. ACC home favorites are 2-6 vs spread in non-league games; Big 14 road underdogs are 3-4.

Third straight tough game for East Carolina squad that waxed Tar Heels 55-31 in Chapel Hill LY, gaining 603 TY as they ended four-game series skid. Pirates won at Va Tech last week, lost 33-23 at South Carolina, but they outgained Gamecocks 453-441. ECU is 9-6 as home favorite under Ruffin; they've got senior QB with 26 starts. UNC is 0-4 as a road dog under Fedora; they were outgained 509-394 by San Diego State at home in last game, but picked off last-minute pass in end zone.

Hard to tell much about Utah squad that hammered pair of cupcakes to open season; they're 3-8 vs spread in last 11 road games, 7-9 as road dog since '09. Michigan is already -7 in turnovers; they were only up 17-10 at half vs Miami O last week, but pulled away late, running ball for 276 yards- Wolverines should be concerned with passing game averaging only 194.3 ypg. they're 11-7 as home favorites under Hoke. Pac-12 teams are 2-8 vs spread on road, but covered only time they were underdog.

Middle Tennessee won five of last six games with Memphis, winning the last three meetings by 2-18-7 points. Blue Raiders gave up 718 yards in wild OT win over Western Kentucky last week, after losing 35-24 week before at Minnesota, despite outgaining Gophers 445-351. Memphis is 8-12 as home favorite since '05; they lost 42-35 at UCLA in last game, as Bruins threw for 396 yards. AAC home teams are 2-8 vs spread in their non-league games. C-USA road underdogs are 11-5 vs spread.

Rutgers won four of last five games vs Navy, but last meeting was in '11; Scarlet Knights had bitter 13-10 loss to Penn State in Big 14 debut last week, throwing five INTs (-4 TOs) in game they led 10-0 at half. Navy scored 66 points in winning last two games, after giving Buckeyes good battle in opener. Middies are 10-14 as home favorites under Niumatalolo. Rutgers is 18-8 in last 26 games as road dog, 6-2 under Flood; both their I-A games this season were decided by a FG.

Alabama won last three games with Florida by average score of 34-10, as Gators lost 31-6/31-3 in last two visits here. Florida was fortunate last week to beat Kentucky in OT, tying game on last-second play to force OT. Gators covered four of last five games as road dog, are 8-5 over last decade in that role. Bama is 3-0 but hasn't covered yet this year; they're 16-14 in last 30 games as home favorite, but 17-9 in last 26 SEC games. First road game for Gators (7-6 vs spread on road under Muschamp).

Virginia Tech won eight of last ten games with Georgia Tech, winning last four (dogs 3-1 vs spread); only one of Hokies' last five series wins was by more than 7 points. GT lost last three visits here by 3-7-3; they were held under 200 yards rushing in last two series games. Hokies were upset by ECU last week after Tech had upset Ohio State week before-- they're 5-12-1 in last 18 games as a home favorite. GT is 2-6 in its last eight games as a road underdog.

Florida State QB Winston is out for this game now, which you'd think means FSU will try to run ball, shorten game for backup QB Maguire, who threw 21 passes LY and is over his head here. Seminoles are 10-2-1 in last 13 games as home favorite; they've won three of last four vs Clemson, winning 49-37/51-14 last two years. Tigers are 1-7 in their last seven visits here, losing last three by 12-3-14; they've covered three of last four visits here- they lost 45-21 at Georgia in first road game.

Oregon State (-8) won 34-30 at San Diego State LY, passing ball for 367 yards; Beavers are 7-12 as home favorites since '09, 6-11 out of Pac-12- they have big league game next week at USC. Aztecs lost tight game at North Carolina despite outgaining UNC 509-394; they're 6-3 as a road dog under Long. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-4 vs spread outsude league play. Mountain West road underdogs are 6-8 as underdogs, 3-5 when on foreign soil. OSU has senior QB with 33 career starts.

LSU won its last 14 games with Mississippi State, covering last four by average score of 36-14; Bulldogs covered twice in last eight visits here-- five of their last six losses in Death Valley were by 18+ points. MSU is 5-10 as road dog under Mullen, but he has 8 starters back on both sides of ball and mobile QB with 10 career starts. LSU is 11-15-1 as favorite at home since '10; they shut out pair of cupcakes in last two games, after the comeback win on neutral field over Wisconsin to start season.

Miami is playing frosh QB who completed 60% of his passes with four INTs in first three games, including 31-13 loss at Louisville; Hurricanes are 1-4-1 in last six games as a road dog. Nebraska has four new starters on OL; they're 12-5 in last 17 games as home favorites. ACC underdogs are 4-1 vs spread out of conference, 2-1 on road, Big 14 home favorites are 5-8 vs spread. Cornhuskers have conference opener with Illinois on deck, but primetime on ABC makes this the bigger game.

Oklahoma won but didn't cover last two games with West Virginia; they gave up 778 yards in wild 50-49 win here two years ago, then ran ball for 316 yards in 16-7 home win LY. Sooners are 13-10 in last 23 games as a road favorite. Mountaineers gained 694 yards in 40-37 wn vs Maryland last week; senior QB Trickett is completing 75.4% of his passes- he was 29-45/365 in 33-23 loss to Alabama. over last decade, WVU is 3-4 when a home underdog- they're 9-7 overall as a dog under Holgorsen.

Cal lost last three visits to Tucson by 1-15-4 points; underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games played here. Arizona won three of last four games vs Cal- last two series games were won by total of six points; Wildcats are 6-7 as home favorites under RichRod- Nevada threw ball for 321 yards against them last week. Unusual amount of rain in Tucson this week; wonder if it disrupted their preparation? Bears are 3-7 in last ten games as a road dog, but they've already won at Northwestern this year.

Notes on rest of card
-- Missouri ran ball for 280 yards, outgained Indiana 623-475 in 45-28 win at Indiana LY. Tigers are 13-8 in last 21 games as home favorite.
-- Since 2012, Penn State is 9-4 as a home favorite.
-- Marshall is 1-9-1 as a road favorite under Holliday. Akron is 2-6 as a home underdog under Terry Bowden.
-- Favorites covered five of last seven Ball State-Toledo games; average total in last five series games is 62.2. Ball won 31-24/34-27 in last two series meetings.

-- Syracuse is 13-8 in its last 21 games as a home favorite ACC favorites are 2-6 vs spread at home, in non-league games.
-- Idaho is 4-11 in its last 15 games as a road underdog. Ohio Bobcats are 8-11 in last 19 games as a home favorite.
-- Kansas is 0-4 as home favorite under Weis. Jayhawks lost 41-3 last week at Duke. Central Michigan lost 40-3 at home to Syracuse.
-- Georgia lost 38-35 at South Carolina, plays Tennessee next week; this is sandwich game for them. Troy lost 38-35 to a I-AA team last week.

-- Wildcat in NY Post used Wisconsin (-27) as a selection this week; he is a pretty good 'capper. Bowling Green allowed 702-582 yards in its two games vs I-A teams this season.
-- Tulane is 12-10-1 in last 23 games as a road dog- they lost first road game this year in OT at Tulsa. Duke covered nine of last ten games as a home favorite.
-- Over last decade, Army is 0-6 as a road favorite. Wake Forest is young team, 3rd-youngest in country- they're playing a true freshman QB.
-- San Jose State is 9-4 in last thirteen games as a road dog. Minnesota is 5-2 in last seven game as home fave- they start league play next week.

-- Michigan State covered four of last five games with Eastern Michigan.
-- South Carolina won last five games with Vanderbilt (2-3 vs spread)-- they've won six of last seven here (one win by more than 18 points).
-- Wyoming scored 45 points in first three games, playing a I-AA team and service academy. FAU is 0-2 as road dog this year, 11-4 in their last 15 tries as a road dog.
-- Since '06, Hawai'i is 16-13 as a road underdog. Colorado is 4-2 in last six games as a home favorite.

-- Georgia State is 1-2, despite scoring 38-31-38 points in in three games. Washington beat I-AA Eastern Washington 59-52 earlier this month.
-- Southern Miss lost two games vs I-AA teams by combined 102-12; in between, they beat I-AA Alcorn State 26-20 in between.
-- Georgia Southern lost two games to ACC teams by combined total of five points. South Alabama is 1-4 as a home dog since moving to I-A.
-- SMU changed head coaches since its last game- they lost last two tilts with Texas A&M by combined score of 90-15.

-- Houston is 20-10 in last 30 games as home favorite, 6-5 under Levine. Mountain West dogs are 6-8 vs spread in non-league games, 3-5 on road.
-- Oregon won its last seven games with Washington State, but Coogs are 4-0 vs spread in last four; Ducks won last three visits here, by 25-20-49.
-- BYU (+2) lost 19-16 at Virginia LY, despite outgaining Cavs 362-223 on a rainy day. ACC non-conference underdogs are 4-1 vs spread.
-- Illinois is 6-9 in last fifteen games as home favorite, 4-4 with Beckman as coach. Texas State is 5-7 as a road underdog under Franchione.

-- Rice is 11-4 vs spread in last fifteen games as home favorite. C-USA teams are 18-7 vs spread out of conference, 8-1 at home.
-- Louisville beat FIU 72-0 LY. Panthers gave up 321 rushing yards in 42-25 home loss to Pitt last week; they lost at home to I-AA Bethune-Cookman 14-12 in season opener.
-- Cincinnati won last eight games (6-2 vs spread) vs Miami O, which is 0-5 vs spread in series games here. Miami was down only 17-10 at half in Ann Arbor last week but got buried in second half, 34-10.
-- Since 2008, Northern Illinois is 10-3 as a road underdog; they've won at Northwestern, UNLV last two weeks, Arkansas ran for 438 yards in 49-28 win at Texas Tech last week.

-- Since 2006, Arkansas State is 2-6 as a home underdog. Utah State covered five of last seven games as a road favorite.
-- New Mexico (-11) beat New Mexico State 66-17 LY, just second win for Lobos in last five series games. Aggies are 3-6 in last nine games as a home underdog.
-- UL-Lafayette was outscored 104-35 in losing its two I-A games so far this season. Sun Belt underdogs are 8-5 out of conference, 4-2 on road.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

Week 4 of the college football season is a mix of intriguing non-conference clashes and huge league battles that could shape how the college football playoff tickles out.

And with all that excitement comes a lot of line moves. We talk to Aaron Kessler, sportsbook supervisor at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas, about the biggest odds adjustments on the board and the reasons behind these moves.

Bowling Green Falcons at Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -21, Move: -27

Bowling Green is coming off a shootout win against Indiana last weekend but will face a much stingier defense in Wisconsin Saturday. Some books have tacked on six points to this spread, with nothing but Badgers money coming in.

“We always get a lot of Wisconsin fans in here,” Kessler tells Covers. “We moved with the market. There isn’t a lot of action on this game but they're (Wisconsin fans) are coming. Not so much for Bowling Green. They don’t have that big a fan base.”

Utah Utes at Michigan Wolverines – Open: -6.5, Move: -3.5

Kessler says this is one of the most popular plays with sharp bettors in Week 4, with wiseguys trimming as much as a field goal off the opening number.

“A lot of wiseguys are on Utah,” he says. “And the public is going to be on them too, seeing how bad Michigan has played.”

Indiana Hoosiers at Missouri Tigers – Open: -17, Move: -14

The Hoosiers and Tigers are primed for a shootout in Week 4, with the total up as high as 72 points for this non-conference contest. Kessler predicts this line will move back up with action coming in on Missouri before kickoff.

“Indiana looks like it can score but the defense just isn’t there,” he says. “It’s tough to beat Missouri in this one. They’re a cover machine and the public comes back to play them every week. We always end up needing the other side in their games, and the other side just can’t get there for us.”

Ball State Cardinals at Toledo Rockets – Open: -9.5, Move: -14

This spread and total are one of big movers of Week 4, with the spread jumping 4.5 points and total dropping from 65.5 to 59 points as of Friday afternoon. Kessler says it’s all sharp money on the Rockets and Under, with Ball State struggling on offense and Toledo failing to slow down opponents on defense.

“All that MAC action early in the week, that’s all wiseguys,” he says. “This is ‘the stoppable force meets the moveable object’.”

Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: +11.5, Move: +7.5

This Big 12 battle has moved as many as four points, depending on where you play, staying just above a touchdown with a half-point hook. Kessler says bettors are sold on West Virginia after its strong showing against Alabama and with Oklahoma star RB Keith Ford out with a fractured ankle.

“Oklahoma is blowing everyone away but hasn’t really played anyone yet,” Kessler says. “And I don’t think Alabama was prepared for West Virginia. No one is really talking about that.”

California Golden Bears at Arizona Wildcats – Open: -12.5, Move: -7.5

This Pac-12 war has taken early action on the road underdog, cutting the spread to just above a touchdown. Cal has impressed in the first few weeks, but that isn’t too hard after such a poor season in 2013.

“Arizona is a bit of a question mark,” says Kessler. “They haven’t played anyone of note and Cal is looking a lot better than that awful team from last year. But the public dog is never a strong play.”

Other notable moves

Old Dominion at Rice - Open: -10, Move: -6.5

Iowa at Pittsburgh - Open: -5.5, Move: -7

Tulane at Duke - Open: Open: 54.5, Move: 58

Army at Wake Forest - Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

UMass at Penn State - Open: -29.5, Move: -26.5

San Jose State at Minnesota - Open: -6.5, Move: 9.5

Georgia State at Washington - Open: -36.5, Move: -34.5

Middle Tennessee at Memphis - Open: -7.5, Move: -12

Miami at Nebraska - Open: 58.5, Move: 55.5

[StarDust Bum]

Essential Week 4 college football betting tidbits

There is plenty of Top 25 action in Week 4 of the college football schedule. If you're having trouble keeping track of it all, here are some essential betting tidbits for all of those ranked matchups:

(24) Clemson Tigers at (1) Florida State Seminoles (-14.5, 60)

* Clemson hasn't forgotten about its embarrassing loss to the 'Noles last season. "We've tried to remind these guys that we did get embarrassed out here, make no mistake about it," Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris said. "Yes, we've definitely talked about it."

* According to a tweet from @JeffGrantSports, the Florida State Seminoles have won their last five games when College GameDay visits campus. They've won by an average margin of 17 points. They'll have do it without Heisman winner Jameis Winston, who originally received a first-half suspension for making lewd comments, but the team has suspended him for the entire game.

Florida Gators at (2) Alabama Crimson Tide (-14, 51)

* According to Yahoo! Sports, Gators coach Will Muschamp is on the hot seat in Gainesville after scraping out a victory against Kentucky last week. "They're all important. They all count for one, so we understand the importance of the game. It's an SEC game," Muschamp said.

* Alabama could get a starter returning on each side of the ball Saturday. Wide receiver DeAndrew White and cornerback Jarrick Williams could return according to head coach Nick Saban.

(3) Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars (+23, 75)

* Ducks QB Marcus Mariota graces this week's cover of Sports Illustrated. The last time he appeared on the cover (Nov. 4, 2013), the Ducks suffered their first loss of the season to Stanford as 10-point faves.

* The Washington State Cougars lead the Nation in passing yards per game with 517. Senior Connor Halliday is tops in the country 1,465 yards passing and 12 touchdown passes (tied with two others).

(4) Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers (+7.5, 64.5)

* This will be the first game that Oklahoma's leading rusher Keith Ford will miss since he was ruled out 2-3 weeks earlier this week.

* West Virginia has suspended their top cornerback, Daryl Worley, earlier in the week. Worley had 17 tackles and intercepted two passes after the first three games of the season.

(7) Texas A&M Aggies at Southern Methodist Mustangs (+33.5, 58.5)

* Kenny Hill has thrown for 1,094 yards and 11 TDs in his first three games, that's 376 yards and three TDs more than Jameis Winston totaled in his first three games last year. Hill is currently 7/1 at Sportsbook.ag to win the Heisman Trophy.

* Redshirt-freshman QB Kolney Cassel makes his first career start for the Mustangs after Neal Burcham went down versus North Texas.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at (8) LSU Tigers (-9, 50)

* Dan Mullen certainly does not forget last year's game against LSU. "Last year late in the third quarter we were driving and missed a field goal, and then they responded with a touchdown," the Bulldogs coach said to media Monday. "They scored 14 points in a minute and a half, and things never go well for you when that happens."

* Nobody can question the toughness of WR Travin Dural. Even though the receiver was in a car accident Sunday morning, requiring a reported 15 stitches, and missing three practices, he will be available for LSU Saturday. Dural has 370 yards and four touchdowns for the Tigers.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at (11) Michigan State Spartans (-45, 52)

*At the very least, first year Eagles coach Chris Creighton has been keeping on the sunny side. ""I really felt as though (the defense) kept us in the game and gave us a chance to win," the coach told the media after surrendering a season-low 367 total yards against the Monarchs.

* Saturday could be a big day for Spartans QB Connor Cook. Through two games this season he is 41-of-60 for 628 yards with five touchdowns.

Troy Trojans at (14) Georgia Bulldogs (-41, 64.5)

* Even though Troy has gotten off to an 0-3 (SU) start for the first time since 1982, it does not seem like there will be shakeups. "Larry [Blakeney] didn't all of a sudden forget how to coach overnight," Troy AD John Hartwell told the media. Hartwell also said that he has "full confidence" in Blakeney.

* The Bulldogs red-zone offense has been a big focus in practice this week. "When we get down there, we’re just kind of stalling out," QB Hutson Mason said this week. "A lot of that is me. I’ve got to read coverage better." Against the Gamecocks, Georgia made six trips to the red zone and managed to score six points.

(16) South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores (+21.5, 53.5)

* Steve Spurrier is not letting his guys get caught in the possible trap game against Vandy. "They'll play us tough. At times we look like we know what we're doing, at other times we look pretty average. I'm hoping we can really put together our best game of the year against Vanderbilt."

* Quarterback play has been the bane of Vanderbilt's season so far. Through three games, the revolving door at QB has completed 46.3 percent of their passes with five interceptions.

Bowling Green Falcons at (17) Wisconsin Badgers (-27, 63.5)

* "The definitely like to go fast," is how Wisconsin coach Derek Landisch described Bowling Green. The Falcons ran 113 offensive plays for 571 yards against Indiana last week. That includes 73 pass attempts by James Knapke.

* The bye week came at a good time for the Badgers after an up-and-down performance for the team. "But there's probably 15 to 18 missed tackles in the last game," coach Gary Anderson said to the media. "I'm not going to say we can't have any missed tackles, but we have to tackle well, and if we can do that, this defense can move forward."

Indiana Hoosiers at (19) Missouri Tigers (-13, 71)

* If the Hoosiers have one area they need to improve, it's special teams. Indiana ranks last in the country in both field goals (0-2) and punting (29.20 average).

* Mizzou has finally given up on a piece of their future offense. Coach Gary Pinkel opened his press conference Monday by announcing that redshirt sophomore WR Levi Copelin has been dismissed from the program.

Miami Hurricanes at (22) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-7.5, 57)

* The Miami Hurricanes will need to start looking for a QB of the future. Only a day after being arrested for DUI and possession of a fake or stolen driver's license, Kevin Olsen dropped out of school.

* Cornhuskers defensive cooridinator John Papuchis has his concerns about the U. "They have great speed at wideout, so I am concerned with balls being thrown over our head, but our guys are aware of it and we have to tackle well to limit explosive plays.”

Virginia Cavaliers at (23) BYU Cougars (-14.5, 47.5)

* The Cavaliers don't open so well on the road. Since 2001, Virginia is 3-10 straight up in its first road game of the season.

* There are a few programs that have a 100 percent scoring rate in the red zone. The Cougars have foiled just one opportunity but are still a good bet to score in the red.The Cougars have scored 13 times (10 touchdowns) in 14 trips inside the red zone so far this season.

(25) North Carolina Tar Heels at East Carolina Pirates (-3, 67)

* UNC will be missing a key piece of their offensive line when they take on the Pirates. RG Landon Turner will miss the game with an undisclosed injury. Last year when the Tar Heels played ECU, the Pirates racked up over 600 yards of offense.

* East Carolina has no use for looking in the past. "Each team's personality is different. We don't have to bring it up because of what we keep preaching," head coach Ruffin McNeill told the media Monday. "I'm anxious to dive into the film a little more because they got onto a great streak at the end of last year."

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 20


Winston now suspended for entire Clemson game

Late Friday night Florida State announced that Jameis Winston would not be suspended the first half of their game against Clemson, but rather the entire game. The news comes less than 24 hours before Seminoles back-up Sean Maguire makes his first ever collegiate start.

Florida State opened the game as 20-point home favorites and then dropped to -17 after the Heisman winners first half suspension. With the news that Winston will sit the entire game the line has dropped to -12.5 according to the Westgate LV Superbook.

"For the full game, Winston has to be worth four points against most teams," a spokesman for GTBets.eu told Covers earlier this week.

After the initial line drop Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag told Covers, "the action Florida State is all on the moneyline at 82 percent while the the spread is seeing all Tigers action as Clemson is getting 94 percent to cover."

The total for the Seminoles-Tigers clash has been dropping drastically after opening at 63.5, the line now sits at 56.5 per the Westgate LV Superbook.


Bowling Green coming off prolific offensive game

Maybe they are not the media darlings of the MAC, but Bowling Green put on an offensive performance in their last game.

The Falcons ran 113 offensive plays for 571 yards against Indiana in Week 3. That includes a large day from QB James Knapke who went 46-for-73 with 395 yards and three touchdowns.

Bowling Green (+27) travels to Wisconsin to take on the Badgers Saturday.


Badgers still not playing up to potential

Wisconsin has been on a roller coaster this season between a four-point loss to LSU and a 37-3 drubbing of Western Illinois. However, the team has yet to really focus on defense.

"There's probably 15 to 18 missed tackles in the last game," coach Gary Anderson said to the media. "I'm not going to say we can't have any missed tackles, but we have to tackle well, and if we can do that, this defense can move forward."

The Badgers will get their chance to tackle as 27-point home favorites against Bowling Green Saturday.


Poor QB play has been downfall for Vanderbilt

Though Vanderbilt has several areas they need to work on, the quarterback position has been the worst for the team. Three different passers have amassed a 46.3 completion percentage with 5-to-1 INT-to-TD ratio.

The Commordores are currently 21.5-point home dogs against South Carolina Saturday.


Georgia's practice focused on red zone offense

The Georgia Bulldogs may have just barely lost to South Carolina last week, but their red zone offense did nothing to keep them in the game. In six trips to the red zone, the Bulldogs managed a total of six points against the Gamecocks.

"When we get down there, we’re just kind of stalling out," QB Hutson Mason said this week. "A lot of that is me. I’ve got to read coverage better."

Georgia hosts Troy this week as 41-point faves.


Despite car accident, Dural will be avaliable

It will be less than one week after a nasty car accident, but WR Travin Dural will be available for LSU Saturday.

Early this past Sunday, Dural was in a car accident that reportedly caused the sophomore to receive 15 stitches and miss three of the teams practices this week.

Dural has 370 yards and four touchdowns for the Tigers this season.


Freshman to start for SMU versus Aggies

With starting QB Neal Burcham out for the Mustangs, SMU will be turning to redshirt-freshaman Kolney Cassel against Texas A&M.

Cassel was a three-star rated recruit coming out of high school where he posted a 58.5 completion percentage for 2697 yards with 27 touchdowns and six interceptions in his senior season.

Cassel has tallied 154 yards and one touchdown in spot duty this season.


Alabama could see two starters return to lineup

It seems that the dominant Alabama Crimson Tide could be getting even stronger this week. Both WR DeAndrew White and CB Jarrick Williams could be returning to the lineup according to Nick Saban.

Both players started in the season opener against WVU, with White tallying six receptions and 73 yards.

The Crimson Tide are currently 14-point home faves against Florida Saturday.


Clemson keeps loss to Seminoles in mind

Less than a year ago, Clemson got embarrassed by Florida State 51-14. That is not a memory easily forgotten in the Tigers locker room.

"We've tried to remind these guys that we did get embarrassed out here, make no mistake about it," Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris said. "Yes, we've definitely talked about it."

Clemson gets a break as Jameis Winston will be suspended for the game Saturday. Winston torched the Tigers for 444 yards and three touchdowns in last seasons beat-down.


Sooners to be without leading rusher

The Oklahoma Sooners will be without leading rusher Keith Ford this week. It was announced earlier this week that the RB would be out 2-3 weeks.

The No.4 ranked team in the nation has used a committee approach to their backfield with three back over 100 yards rushing, but Ford leads the teams in touchdowns with five.

The Sooners travel to West Virginia as 7.5 faves.


Mullen does not forget how close Bulldogs were

Even though the last meeting between Mississippi State and LSU looked like a beatdown on paper, a 59-26 Tigers victory, it was a surprisingly close game. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen does not forget how close that game was.

"Last year late in the third quarter we were driving and missed a field goal, and then they responded with a touchdown," the Bulldogs coach said to media Monday. "They scored 14 points in a minute and a half, and things never go well for you when that happens."

Mississippi State are 9-point road dogs Saturday.


Troy confident despite worst start in 32 years

A 0-3 record straight-up (1-2 against the spread) does not have Troy panicking. Despite the teams worst start since 1982, there does not appear to be shakeups on the horizon.

"Larry [Blakeney] didn't all of a sudden forget how to coach overnight," Troy athletic director John Hartwell told the media. Hartwell went on to say that he has "full confidence" in Blakeney.

The Trojans have an uphill battle as 41-point road dogs versus Georgia Saturday.


Spurrier: "We look pretty average"

Despite South Carolina topping Georgia last week, Steve Spurrier is not letting his team rest on their laurels.

"[Vanderbilt will] play us tough. At times we look like we know what we're doing, at other times we look pretty average," Spurrier said this week. " I'm hoping we can really put together our best game of the year against Vanderbilt."

The Gamecocks are currently 21.5-point road faves.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 20


Iowa-Pitt to be playing against high winds

The Iowa Hawkeyes will travel to Heinz Field to play Pitt Saturday, but the winds may be the biggest enemy of all. Winds are expected to be constantly blowing above 12 miles per hour and as high as 15 mph.

Iowa and Pitt's total is currently set at 47.


Cornhuskers kicker crashes motorcycle, breaks collarbone

Nebraska kicker Mauro Bondi broke his collarbone Thursday night when he crashed his motorcycle in Lincoln.

Bondi failed to navigate a turn in the northwest part of the city around 6:30 p.m., according to the Journal Star. Bondi hit a curb and ran off the road. A passer-by assisted him to his apartment where a roommate took him to a hospital.

Police cited the 21-year-old with negligent driving and riding without a motorcycle license. Police said alcohol was not a factor in the crash. Bondi was wearing a helmet.

His status for Saturday's game is uncertain. The Cornhuskers host the Miami Hurricanes

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 20


Spartan Stadium to be wet and windy

The in-state rivalry game between Eastern Michigan and Michigan State is expected to be a messy one. The forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of thundershowers with winds gusting upwards of 13 miles per hour.

The total for the Eagles and Spartans is currently 52.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences

Team to watch: Wyoming Cowboys

This week: -4 vs. Florida Atlantic

Wyoming is coming off a 48-14 loss at Oregon last Saturday (it covered the spread as a 42-point underdog), but the bottom line is that the Cowboys tested themselves against the toughest competition. Head coach Craig Bohl called the 34-point setback “not acceptable,” but he emphasized that facing the Ducks’ high-powered spread offense will only help down the road. Going up against Marcus Mariota should also have been a beneficial lesson in advance of running into Florida Atlanticl dual-threat quarterback Jaquez Johnson.

Florida Atlantic has endured a difficult non-conference schedule, as well (it has losses to Nebraska and Alabama). The 1-2 Owls, though, have been outscored 117-57 through three contests. That’s a lot. And speaking of a lot, check out their travel route: they are making a trek of more than 2,100 miles from Boca Raton, Fla. to Laramie, Wyo.

Team to beware: Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns

This week: +16 at Boise State

Louisiana-Lafayette has given up 104 points in its last two games and in neither contest did the team come within single digits of covering the spread. On the other side of the ball, head coach Mark Hudspeth says quarterback Terrance Broadway has been pressing. The 2013 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year is averaging two interceptions per game (six in three) after averaging just one last season (12 in 12).

Boise State, which has run 118 passing plays and 118 running plays through two games, is beating defenses however necessary. Jay Ajayi had 459 rushing yards after two outings before Connecticut stuffed the box, at which point the Broncos torched the Huskies for three touchdowns through the air in a 38-21 victory. Boise State has never faced ULL before, but head coach Bryan Harsin will know what to expect after facing the Ragin’ Cajuns last year while he was at Arkansas State.

Total team: Idaho Vandals

This week: 54 at Ohio

Idaho’s defense has been horrendous this season, with 83 points surrendered in its first two outings—losses to Louisiana-Monroe and Western Michigan. ULM racked up 534 yards and WMU gained 486. The over is 8-1 in Idaho’s last nine overall, 5-1 in its last six non-conference games, and 4-1 in its last five road games.

Ohio receiver Chase Cochran hauled in a 53-yard pass on his team’s first play from scrimmage last weekend against Marshall. The senior now has 13 receptions of 40 yards or more during his career. As for the running game, head coach Frank Solich said earlier this week that the Bobcats have more depth there than ever before and he plans to continue using a rotation of at least four backs. Solich indicated that A.J. Ouellette (11 carries, 69 yards this season) would be most likely to see an increased workload.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 20


Over trending at Sanford Stadium

One stadium that has enjoyed some high offensive output is Sanford Stadium. In Georgia's last 10 games at home, the over has paid out eight times.

During that span, the Bulldogs have averaged 43 points per game, with a combined average of 64 ppg.

Georgia hosts Troy with a total of 64 Saturday.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday- Friday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------1 - 1

Double Plays--------------------------0 - 2

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

28- 20......................................*****

17 - 15.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

14 - 10 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

5 - 6 ....................................LIGHTS OUT

Over all picks Opinions and Rated Games

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/19/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
09/18/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/13/14 34-*21-*0 61.82% +*5450 Detail
09/12/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/11/14 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/06/14 31-*34-*0 47.69% -*3200 Detail
09/05/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/01/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 73-*67-*0 52.14% -*350



Rated Games and Opinons Till 7pm Eastern

Saturday, September 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Eastern Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Michigan State -44 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Michigan State -

Iowa - 12:00 PM ET Iowa +7 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Pittsburgh -

Old Dominion - 12:00 PM ET Old Dominion +6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Rice -

Georgia Tech - 12:00 PM ET Georgia Tech +7.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Virginia Tech -

Bowling Green - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin -27 500 *****
Wisconsin -

Troy - 12:00 PM ET Troy +41 500
Georgia -

Tulane - 12:30 PM ET Duke -16.5 500 *****
Duke -

Maryland - 12:30 PM ET Maryland +2.5 500 *****
Syracuse -

Hawaii - 2:00 PM ET Hawaii +8 500
Colorado -

Marshall - 2:00 PM ET Akron +9 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Akron -

Utah - 3:30 PM ET Michigan -3.5 500
Michigan -

North Carolina - 3:30 PM ET North Carolina +2 500 TRIPLE PLAY
East Carolina -

Army - 3:30 PM ET Army -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Wake Forest -

Virginia - 3:30 PM ET Virginia +14.5 500 *****
Brigham Young -

Florida - 3:30 PM ET Florida +14 500 *****
Alabama -

Louisville - 3:30 PM ET Florida International +26 500
Florida International -

Central Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Central Michigan +3.5 500 *****
Kansas -

Texas A&M - 3:30 PM ET Texas A&M -34 500 LIGHTS OUT
Southern Methodist -

Rutgers - 3:30 PM ET Rutgers +7 500
Navy -

San Jose State - 4:00 PM ET Minnesota -10 500
Minnesota -

Indiana - 4:00 PM ET Missouri -13 500 *****
Missouri -

Massachusetts - 4:00 PM ET Massachusetts +27 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Penn State -

Texas State - 4:00 PM ET Texas State +12.5 500 *****
Illinois -

Florida Atlantic - 4:00 PM ET Wyoming -3.5 500 *****
Wyoming -

Georgia State - 6:00 PM ET Washington -34.5 500
Washington -