The Bum's NFL December's POD'S-Trends-Stats !

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MNF - Ravens at Lions

December 15, 2013


Both the Lions and Ravens are desperate squads that need wins down the stretch to make the playoffs. These two clubs hook up at Ford Field to close out Week 15 of the regular season, as Baltimore finishes the campaign against three winning squads, including matchups with New England and Cincinnati the next two weeks. However, the Ravens look for their second consecutive interconference victory after an amazing finish last week.

Baltimore outlasted Minnesota last Sunday in a blizzard, 29-26 to close out a perfect 3-0 homestand. The Ravens failed to cash as six-point favorites, as the two teams combined for 42 points in the final quarter after Baltimore led just 7-6 after three quarters. In fact, the Ravens and Vikings exchanged five touchdowns in the last two minutes of regulation, as Joe Flacco's nine-yard touchdown pass to Marlon Brown with four seconds left proved to be the difference. The total closed at 41 ½, as 'under' bettors suffered probably their worst loss of the season with the explosive fourth quarter.

The Lions also played in a snowstorm last week, but dropped a 34-20 decision at Philadelphia as 2 ½-point underdogs. Detroit grabbed an 8-0 advantage at halftime, while taking a 14-0 edge following a punt return for a touchdown in the third quarter. However, the Eagles took over from there by outscoring the Lions, 34-6, which included a pair of long touchdown runs by LeSean McCoy. The former University of Pittsburgh standout rushed for a career-best 217 yards, while the Eagles' defense held Lions' quarterback Matthew Stafford to just 10 completions.

The Ravens have struggled away from M&T Bank Stadium this season, posting a 1-5 record with a trip to Cincinnati in Week 17. John Harbaugh's club owns a 2-2 ATS mark in the road underdog role, while scoring 20 points or less in each of their last three away contests (all losses). Baltimore has lost three times on the highway by three points or less, including walk-off defeats at Pittsburgh and Chicago.

Detroit has compiled a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS record at Ford Field, while going 'over' the total five times. In the only other home game against an AFC foe, the Lions fell to the Bengals in Week 7 at the gun in a 27-24 defeat as 2 ½-point favorites. Since Jim Schwartz arrived as the head coach in 2009, the Lions are 3-6 SU and 5-3-1 ATS at home against AFC competition, while dropping five of their past seven interconference games overall.

The Lions and Ravens last met on December 13, 2009 at M&T Bank Stadium as Baltimore crushed Detroit, 48-3. The Ravens easily cashed as 14-point 'chalk,' as Baltimore rushed for five touchdowns, including a pair from Willis McGahee. That Detroit squad finished 2-14 in 2009, while Daunte Culpepper started that game and threw two interceptions in the blowout loss.

The favorites have dominated on Monday night recently, winning and covering each of the last four weeks. The past three Monday contests have been decided by double-digits, while last week's shootout between the Bears and Cowboys snapped a three-game 'under' stretch on Mondays. The Lions are playing under the Monday night lights for just the third time since 2008, while the last home Monday contest for Detroit resulted in a 24-13 triumph over Chicago in 2011.

Following Miami's home victory over New England on Sunday, the Dolphins now hold a one-half game edge over the Ravens for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. The Ravens own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Miami, while the Chargers are hanging around at 7-7 after their upset of Denver on Thursday. However, Baltimore has the upper-hand over San Diego from a conference record standpoint, as the Ravens are 6-4 inside the AFC while the Chargers are just 4-6.

The only chance for the Lions to make the playoffs is to win the NFC North, as Detroit heads into Monday trailing Chicago by one-half game after the Bears held off the Browns on the road. If the Lions and Bears finish the season tied, Detroit will grab the division title since it swept Chicago.

The Lions are listed as 6 ½-point home favorites on Monday, while the total is set at 50. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Ford Field and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Ravens, Lions clash on MNF

December 15, 2013


Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Detroit -5.5, Total: 48

After wrapping up a three-game homestand, the Ravens hit the road on Monday night to take on the Lions in a game with major playoff implications for both teams.

Baltimore won its third straight game last week with a comeback 29-26 victory over the Vikings at home, but it has been a horrible road team at 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) this year. Detroit played a blizzard game in Philadelphia and lost to the Eagles 34-20, but is happy to return home where it is 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) with 31.7 PPG and 477 total YPG.

These teams have met at Ford Field just once since 1992, and that ended up in a 35-17 win-and-cover for the Lions.

The Lions are 25-6 ATS (81%) after gaining four or less yards per play in their previous game since 1992, while the Ravens are 42-23 ATS (65%) after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

Although Baltimore has a strong defense, this could be a high-scoring game as the Lions are 7-0 Over in non-conference tilts over the past two seasons.

RB Reggie Bush (calf), who reinjured his calf in pregame warm-ups last week and did not play, is listed as questionable for Sunday, while LB Elvis Dumervil (ankle) is questionable for the Ravens.

The Ravens have gotten hot at just at the right time as they make a push for a playoff spot in the AFC. QB Joe Flacco (3,238 pass yards, 6.6 YPA, 18 TD, 17 INT) has thrown for 240 or more yards in each of the past three games and has five touchdowns and four interceptions in that time, tossing three picks in last week's game before throwing the game-winning TD pass to Marlon Brown with nine seconds remaining, marking the game's fifth touchdown in the final 2:05. That capped off a monster performance for Brown who had seven receptions for 92 yards.

RB Ray Rice also totaled 109 yards in the game despite rushing for just 67 on 3.9 YPC, marking the 11th time in 12 games that he has failed to average 4.0 yards per carry in a game this year. His 3.0 YPC average this year is far below his career mark of 4.3 YPC. T

E Dennis Pitta made a big splash in his season debut with 48 yards and a touchdown on six catches, and his athleticism adds a different dimension to this offense.

But top WR Torrey Smith had one of his worst games of the year versus Minnesota, as he was held to just one reception for 11 yards. The Ravens will need him to be much more effective against Detroit.

Baltimore's defense has given up just 49 points total over the past three weeks and ranks 8th in the NFL with 20.1 PPG allowed. Its rush defense continues to be dominant, allowing just 101.2 rushing YPG (7th in NFL) on 3.8 yards per carry (5th in league).

The Lions were poised to have a fairly simple road to the playoffs but they have lost three of their past four games in a very crucial period. The Lions are great at defending the run, allowing just 99.3 yards per game on the ground (6th in NFL), but are a miserable pass defense, allowing 255.9 YPG through the air (25th in NFL).

QB Matt Stafford has had an up-and-down season with 27 TD, but 18 turnovers (14 INT, 4 lost fumbles), but ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards (3,976). He struggled throwing in the snow against the Eagles last game, going just 10-of-25 for 151 yards and no touchdowns.

WR Calvin Johnson has been one of the league’s best players yet again this season. Despite dealing with nagging injuries all year, he still has 75 receptions for 1,351 yards (2nd in NFL) and 12 receiving touchdowns (2nd in NFL).

This matchup with the Ravens could make or break Detroit's season and it will need to be clicking on all cylinders.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Most popular, least popular picks in the LVH Super Contest, where 1,034 contestants pick five games each week of the NFL season........they paid $1,500 each to be in this contest, by the way.

Most pop. (35-53-4 vs spread)

1) Chiefs 315 - W
2) Eagles 307 - L
3) Dolphins 306 - W
4) Steelers 230 - W
5) Jaguars 220 - L
6) Saints 216 - L

Least popular (45-43-2)

32) Cowboys 32 - L
29) Jets 65 - W
28) Falcons 77 - L
27) Vikings 79 - W
26) Bengals 96 - L
25) Texans 97 - L


*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday.......

14) Atlanta 27, Washington 26-- Redskins turned ball over seven times, but scored with 0:18 left and looked like game was headed to OT. For whatever reason, Shanahan went for two, the try failed and Redskins are 3-11. Cousins passed for 381 yards and three TDs, but five lost fumbles doomed the Skins.

13) 49ers 33, Buccaneers 14-- Niners ran for 187 yards, had 18-yard edge in field position in an easy win. Red zone still an issue for 49ers; they kicked three FGs on four drives inside Tampa 20. If you own the 4-10 Bucs, do you fire Schiano or give him another year?

12) Cardinals 37, Titans 34 OT-- Arizona led 34-17 with 3:20 left, turned Ryan Fitzpatrick into Dan Fouts for a half hour, botched an onside kick and found themselves in OT, where tey got an INT and won, despite being -3 in turnovers. Two weeks ago, they lost by FG in Philly despite +3 TO ratio.

11) Rams 27, Saints 16-- Rams are +17 in turnovers in their six wins; they were +3 in this game, ran ball for 144 yards. Baffling why Saints just aren't nearly as good on road as they are in Superdome-- they were even lousy in dome road games, at Atlanta/St Louis.

10) Seahawks 23, Giants 0-- At one point, Giants had four INTs and five first downs; they haven't scored in first half of last two games, will have first losing season since 2004. Seattle can clinch home field thru NFC playoffs by beating the Cardinals at home next week.

9) Bears 38, Browns 31-- Cleveland scored two defensive TDs, still lost for fifth week in row, with last three losses by 4-1-7 points. Chicago also had a defensive score, is in first place if the Ravens upset Detroit tonight.

8) Colts 25, Texans 3-- Hard to believe how dismal a season Houston has had; their last win was Sept 15, two days after the Astros' last win. Astros lost their last 15 games. At least the Rockets are pretty good. Right now the Colts would host Kansas City in a first round playoff game.

7) Bills 27, Jaguars 20-- I've got nothing interesting on this game, so I'll rant about announcers calling players "winners", as if it is pre-ordained; for every winner, there has to be a loser, and I refuse to believe that some people are pre-ordained losers. Thats just how I feel.

6) Dolphins 24, Patriots 20-- All seven Miami home games have been won by 4 or less points, so high drama for season ticket holders in south Florida and a superior coaching job by Joe Philbin. Patriots are an average team with an all-time great QB nearing the end of his career.

5) Vikings 48, Eagles 30-- Respect your opponents; obviously Philly took this team lightly. Chip Kelly used to be coach at Oregon, Matt Cassel never started a game at USC- he passed for 370 yards in this game, as Minnesota jogged to a win with Adrian Peterson sitting out (foot).

4) Panthers 30, Jets 20-- Carolina passed up an easy FG while up 16-6, and that is why they didn't cover; every once in while, Ron Rivera turns into Les Miles and does things that do not make sense- this was one of those. Jets are competitive when they hang onto the ball and they did in this game.

3) Chiefs 56, Raiders 31-- Jamaal Charles scored 48 fantasy points in my league today; five TDs, 195 receiving yards. Chiefs led 35-10 with 5:42 left in second quarter- they clinched playoff spot with win, after going 2-14 LY. In all, 763 points were scored Sunday, the most ever in one day.

2) Packers 37, Cowboys 36-- Epic collapse by Dallas, which led 26-3 at the half; keep in mind Matt Flynn was unemployed on Halloween, after he was cut by three different teams, just this season. Green Bay's first five drives in second half: 38 plays, 312 yards, five touchdowns. Oy.

1) Steelers 30, Bengals 20-- Cincinnati could've moved up to #2 slot in the AFC with win here, so of course they were down 21-0 in first quarter to its rival that is basically playing out the string. Bengals need home field as much as anyone other than the Saints-- this was a damaging loss.

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[StarDust Bum]

Handicapping the AFC

December 17, 2013


Power Rankings - Week 15

Seattle has maintained the top spot over the last three weeks despite seeing their rating fall 0.7 points. We have really seen a big drop in ratings towards the top as there are only four teams that have posted an average grade above 88.8 on the season!

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

Performance Ratings
Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended Turnover
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS Margin
12 SEA 47.5 4 48.9 1 96.4 1 31 16
10 CAR 46.8 7 46.1 3 93.0 2 30 11
11 DEN 54.0 1 38.6 17 92.6 3 25 (3)
10 NO 47.5 4 42.9 8 90.4 4 24 0
9 CIN 42.8 14 46.0 4 88.8 5 20 (1)
7 DET 45.8 9 42.6 11 88.4 6 16 (13)
11 KC 44.6 10 43.0 7 87.7 7 32 21
10 SF 40.9 18 46.3 2 87.2 8 8 8
9 ARI 41.0 17 43.5 6 84.5 9 14 4
8 CHI 51.6 2 32.3 28 83.9 10 26 6
7 SD 51.3 3 32.4 27 83.6 11 18 (2)
8 PHI 47.1 6 34.8 25 81.9 12 29 9
6 PIT 40.2 20 40.7 13 80.9 13 23 (4)
3 WAS 43.7 11 36.9 21 80.6 14 11 (9)
7 GB 46.6 8 33.8 26 80.5 15 28 (3)
10 NE 43.3 12 36.9 20 80.2 16 22 4
2 HOU 37.3 23 42.8 9 80.1 17 18 (15)
5 BUF 36.0 26 42.6 12 78.6 18 27 1
5 TEN 40.2 19 37.6 18 77.8 19 6 (3)
9 IND 41.5 15 35.6 23 77.1 20 10 7
8 BAL 31.8 29 45.2 5 77.0 21 15 (2)
8 MIA 37.1 24 39.7 15 76.8 22 13 2
4 CLE 35.4 27 40.1 14 75.5 23 9 (6)
6 STL 39.3 22 35.4 24 74.7 24 3 9
6 NYJ 30.8 31 42.8 9 73.5 25 19 (19)
4 OAK 36.9 25 36.3 22 73.2 26 21 (8)
7 DAL 42.9 13 29.4 32 72.3 27 12 11
4 MIN 41.5 15 30.1 30 71.5 28 4 (7)
5 NYG 31.6 30 39.4 16 71.1 29 2 (17)
4 TB 33.0 28 37.1 19 70.1 30 1 11
4 ATL 39.5 21 29.8 31 69.3 31 5 (4)
4 JAC 27.9 32 30.7 29 58.6 32 8 (4)


This week let’s examine some interesting stats/metrics about each currently projected AFC playoff team (next week we will examine the NFC):

#1 Denver: The Broncos defense has really fallen on hard times posting a mark better than their opponent’s offense just twice since their Week 9 bye (top defensive grade is just 43 over their last 6 games), with an average grade of just 33.5 – that mark would be around 27th in the NFL based on full year grades. Some of that has been driven by injuries (S Rahim Moore, CB Champ Bailey, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, LB Wesley Woodyard, DT Derek Wolfe, DT Kevin Vickerson), but a lot of it has been simply put poor performance against some of the better teams on their schedule.

#2 New England: The loss of tight end Rob Gronkowski really hurts this team, especially considering all the additional injuries this team has faced on the outside, and defensively. New England rates just 16th in the NFL according to my performance ratings including a defense checking in at #20. Like the Broncos the Patriots defense is not playing well, checking in with an average grade of 29.3 over their last 6 games – that mark would be worst in the NFL (yes, even worse than Dallas) if based on full year grades! Considering a potential matchup in Denver for the AFC Championship, it seems New England will really have its hands full to reach Met Life Stadium.

#3 Cincinnati: Like the Broncos & Patriots above them the Bengals lost on Sunday, and have holes themselves especially if they earned the #3 seed instead of the #2. The Bengals are outscoring their opponents by 16.0ppg at home, but are being outscored by 2.0ppg in road contests. If they were to stick in the 3 spot they would likely host Baltimore, Miami or San Diego in their opening Wild Card contest, but would then go to New England with a win – and face a Patriots team who would be seeking revenge from a beat down in Cincy earlier this season. It really seems like the Bengals will once again struggle to get past the Divisional Round unless they can secure the #2 seed as this is the rare AFC team that has graded well defensively most of the season.

#4 Indianapolis: Like themselves last year and New England this year, the Colts are not grading out well in the performance ratings as they check in at just #20. Before last week’s win over Houston they were outplayed in my performance ratings in six straight games following their bye week, and like some of the squads above them defense has been the major issue as they scored just a 25.6 average defensive grade over those six contests! Wow. Considering the Colts will be without WR Reggie Wayne, it’s hard to see how the Colts would be able to string together multiple wins in the playoffs.

#5 Kansas City: Outside of a pair of losses to Denver the Chiefs have arguably been the best team in the AFC this season – but how much of their success is supported by a +21 TOM? It’s hard to assume a TOM would remain that robust in the playoffs versus the best teams in the conference, while also facing those teams in their stadiums. That being said, the Chiefs are the 2nd best road team in the NFL this season both on a standalone rating and SOS adjusted basis, outscoring their opponents by an NFL best 15.0ppg. Kansas City could be the most dangerous team in the AFC, especially when it comes to the chances any of these teams has at beating Denver in the Mile High City.

#6 Baltimore/Miami/San Diego: We will touch on these squads as this process plays out, but we can see from above SD is rated highest according to my performance ratings, even when adjusting for SOS. With Baltimore hosting New England, and Miami travelling to Buffalo coming off their huge win over New England last week, San Diego may get revenge on Oakland and be in the driver’s seat come Week 17.

Next let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape:

Division Rankings
Division Rating Overall Rank
NFC West 42 1
AFC West 47 2
NFC North 59 3
AFC North 62 5
NFC South 67 5
AFC East 81 6
NFC East 82 7
AFC East 88 8


Not much of a change over the last two weeks; only the AFC East and NFC East have flip-flopped spots.

Playoff Projections

AFC Playoffs
1) Denver
2) New England
3) Cincinnati
4) Indianapolis
5) Kansas City
6) Miami

NFC Playoffs
1) Seattle
2) Carolina
3) Philadelphia
4) Chicago
5) San Francisco
6) New Orleans

In this week’s projected playoff field I have given the #2 seed in the NFC to Carolina over New Orleans considering those two teams play this week in Carolina. The only real open spots are the #6 seed in the AFC & the NFC East divisional winner. We may see Week 17 decide both of those playoff spots with Baltimore at Cincinnati, Kansas City at San Diego, New York Jets at Miami deciding the AFC spot and Philadelphia at Dallas deciding the NFC East winner. More to come on these spots in the next two weeks.

Last analysis for this week are my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.

Weekly Power Rankings
Rank Team
1 Seattle
2 Denver
3 Carolina
4 New Orleans
5 San Francisco
6 Cincinnati
7 Detroit
8 Kansas City
9 New England
10 Arizona
11 Chicago
12 San Diego
13 Pittsburgh
14 Miami
15 St. Louis
15 Philadelphia
17 Indianapolis
18 Washington
19 Green Bay
19 Baltimore
21 Minnesota
22 Tampa Bay
22 Buffalo
24 Houston
25 Tennessee
25 New York Giants
27 Cleveland
28 Dallas
29 Oakland
30 New York Jets
31 Atlanta
32 Jacksonville

[StarDust Bum]

Close Calls - Week 15

December 17, 2013


NFL games often go down to the wire, especially relative to the spread. Here are close calls from Week 15 of the NFL season, recapping the spread-changing plays from the fourth quarters around the league.

Atlanta Falcons (-5½) 27, Washington Redskins 26 (49½): The underdog Redskins rallied back from an early 14-0 deficit, taking a 20-17 lead by halftime. Atlanta scored the only touchdown of the third quarter to lead 24-20 and then with three minutes to go in the game the Falcons added a field goal to get past the spread 27-20. While Kirk Cousins and the Redskins had seven turnovers in the game, the offense came through with a great final drive, eventually finding the end zone with just 18 seconds left in the game. Mike Shanahan certainly took some heat for the decision to go for two but anyone on the underdog was certainly pleased to end the game. The conversion failed as Atlanta picked up the win and the final touchdown was also enough to push the total just ‘over’.

San Francisco 49ers (-4½) 33, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (41): This line was as high as -6 before falling over the weekend and the distinction looked like it might be important as a Tampa Bay fourth quarter touchdown cut the lead for the 49ers to just 20-14, right on that early number. That margin stood until just over four minutes to go as San Francisco settled for a short field goal and any hopes of Tampa Bay getting a backdoor cover were quickly extinguished as a fumble on the kickoff led directly to another San Francisco touchdown to put the game away. That score also was the difference for the total in the game as well.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) 37, Tennessee Titans 34 (42½): The Titans took a 17-13 lead in this game late in the third quarter with Tennessee playing as three-point home underdog, though the line slipped to 2½ at some outlets at various parts of the week. Arizona only needed seven plays to answer with a touchdown to put the game right on the spread heading into the fourth quarter. An early fourth quarter attempt to tie the game failed with a missed field goal and Arizona converted a few big third down plays and eventually found the end zone to go up by 10 with less than seven minutes to go. On second down for the Titans on the next possession Ryan Fitzpatrick was intercepted with the pick returned for a touchdown, seemingly putting the game away for Arizona. The Titans would score with about three minutes to go to get back within 10 and after failing to get the onside kick the Titans used its timeouts and got the 3-and-out it needed. Tennessee was down the field quickly and needing two scores they kicked a field goal with less than a minute to go. The Titans incredibly recovered the second onside kick attempt and in just 37 seconds Fitzpatrick led Tennessee into the end zone to tie the game. The Titans hit a 33-yard play on 2nd down getting the ball first in overtime but Fitzpatrick was intercepted on the next play and Arizona was able to connect for the game winning field goal. While eventually 71 points were scored this game was still ‘under’ until a touchdown with less than seven minutes to go in the game.

Chicago Bears (+1) 38, Cleveland Browns 31 (44): With two defensive touchdowns the Browns led 24-17 entering the fourth quarter but the Bears scored three touchdowns in less than nine minutes to pull away from the Browns. Cleveland added a touchdown within the final minute to get back within seven points but the Bears held on to take control of the NFC North. Twenty eight fourth quarter points also pushed the game ‘over’ despite a 3-0 first quarter.

Buffalo Bills (-4) 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 20 (43½): Sharp action late in the week pushed the Bills from a -2 favorite all the way to -4 and despite a 10-point halftime lead the Bills and Jaguars were tied early in the fourth quarter at 20-20. Buffalo would answer as they took a 27-20 lead with less than 10 minutes to go in the game after an 80-yard scoring drive. Jacksonville appeared ready to answer as the Jaguars eventually wound up sitting on the Buffalo 1-yard line with 1st and goal with less than four minutes to go in the game. On 1st down the Bills lost four yards and on 3rd down Chad Henne was intercepted. Jacksonville would get one more chance but a sack forced the Jaguars into 4th and long and they failed to convert deep in their own territory.

Miami Dolphins (-2½) 24, New England Patriots 20 (46½): This line flipped as the Patriots were favored early in the week before Miami closed as a slight favorite. New England was up 10-0 early as they looked to lock up the AFC East but early in the fourth quarter Miami took a 17-10 lead. New England scored the next 10 points to leave Miami down by three and Ryan Tannehill delivered the signature drive of his young career. The Dolphins converted on a 4th and 5 and eventually found the end zone to lead 24-20 with just over a minute to go. Tom Brady has had plenty of great late game heroics and he put the Patriots inside the Miami 20 but with four attempts at the end zone and no timeouts New England had three incomplete passes and on 4th down Brady was intercepted. Miami held on for the win and those on the ‘under’ also held on with the late stop as well.

Carolina Panthers (-10) 30, New York Jets 20 (40½): The Panthers controlled this game throughout but they failed to pull away, leading by just three heading into the fourth quarter. Early in the fourth the Panthers went back up by 10 with a short rushing touchdown and a few minutes later a 41-yard interception return for a touchdown put the game away. The Jets would save a push for many however with a late touchdown to trim the margin back to 10, where the line closed after being as high as 11½ early in the week. The total also saw another late win for the ‘over’ despite just 29 points through three quarters.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) 56, Oakland Raiders 31 (44½): The Chiefs won this game by 25 points but late in the third quarter the Raiders were within four after scoring three consecutive touchdowns. The hopes for an underdog cover were short lived however as Jamaal Charles had a 71-yard touchdown just over a minute later and the Chiefs added two more touchdowns to close out the game.

Green Bay Packers (+4) 37, Dallas Cowboys 36 (49½): The season for the Packers seemed to be reaching its end, trailing 26-3 at halftime. Green Bay continued to compete with two touchdowns in the third quarter to offset a Dallas field goal but the Cowboys still led by 12 heading into the fourth quarter. Green Bay scored just four plays into the fourth quarter to get within five but any comebacks hopes were muted as Dallas answered to go back up by 12 with less than eight minutes to go. Led by Matt Flynn the Packers were back in the end zone and back within five with just four minutes to go. The Green Bay defense has not done a lot of positive things this season but they picked up a big sack as Dallas continued to throw the ball. The Cowboys picked up a key third down after Green Bay used its first timeout however. On 2nd and 6 with less than three minutes to go in the game Tony Romo added another late game play to his legacy with an interception. Green Bay only needed seven plays to find the end zone to take the lead and the Packers improbably led 37-36 after a failed two-point conversion attempt. Dallas still had plenty of time on the clock getting the ball back with 1:31 remaining and on second down Romo was intercepted again. The play was initially ruled an incompletion but on review the play was reversed as Tramon Williams made a great play for the game-sealing interception to keep the Packers in the playoff hunt.

[Kaptain]

BUM....where's our famous trademark of BOLD Print for the POD's..........Let me know if you need help as to "how to get it working right".............I'll post it here for you.....step by step.it worked for me, and the Old Kaptain can't be having it just his way without my OLD PODNA...............Kapt

[StarDust Bum]

WAZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ up bradda Kapt.....i tried to follow the steps and it just didn't work.......it would be nice to get it working again.........get in touch with me bradda......

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday Night Football: Over goes 12-4-1 in midweek matchups

With no more Thursday Night Football on the schedule, we decided to take a look back at those games and see how they fared for bettors.

The Over in those spots was the biggest success story, going 12-4-1 in the 17 Thursday nighters - including the three Thanksgiving games. The lone push was the Week 9 tilt between the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins with the 22-20 score at the final gun matching the closing total.

Below is a list of the results of all games on Thursday with the closing lines in parenthesis.

Visiting team listed first.

Week 1: Baltimore 27, Denver 49 (-7.5, 48.5)
Week 2: New York Jets 10, New England 13 (-10.5, 43)
Week 3: Kansas City 26, Philadelphia 16 (-3, 50)
Week 4: San Francisco 35, St. Louis 11 (+3, 42.5)
Week 5: Buffalo 24, Cleveland 37 (-3.5, 40.5)
Week 6: New York Giants 21, Chicago 27 (-9.5, 46.5)
Week 7: Seattle 34, Arizona 22 (+5, 41)
Week 8: Carolina 31, Tampa Bay 13 (+6.5, 44)
Week 9: Cincinnati 20, Miami 22 (+3, 42)
Week 10: Washington 27, Minnesota 34 (+1, 48)
Week 11: Indianapolis 30, Tennessee 27 (+2.5, 42)
Week 12: New Orleans 17, Atlanta 13 (+7.5, 52.5)
Week 13: Green Bay 10, Detroit 40 (-7, 48.5)
Week 13: Oakland 24, Dallas 31 (-3, 49.5)
Week 13: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 22 (-3, 39.5)
Week 14: Houston 20, Jacksonville 27 (+3, 43.5)
Week 15: San Diego 27, Denver 20 (-10, 56.5)

Favorites ATS: 7-10
Favorites SU: 12-5
Underdogs ATS: 10-7
Underdogs SU: 5-12
Home team ATS: 7-10
Home team SU: 10-7
Road team ATS: 10-7
Road team SU: 7-10
Over/Under: 12-4-1

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Opening Line Report: Patriots aren't the same without Gronkowski

The final weeks of the NFL schedule can sometimes be a craps shoot, with teams battling for playoff positioning against others who have given up on the year. But, thanks to wide-open postseason races in both conferences, Week 16 could be one of the most interesting slates of football all season.

Things got especially intriguing in the AFC following the Baltimore Ravens’ win over the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. That victory thrusts the defending Super Bowl champs into the sixth seed in the AFC with room for improvement in Sunday’s home date with the New England Patriots.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says they sent out a suggested spread of Baltimore -2.5 and feels even better about that number following Monday’s win. The biggest factor behind having the Ravens as slight home favorites is the injury to Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was noticeably missed in Sunday’s loss to Miami.

“We rarely get to learn this much about one team in a single season, but we’ve seen (New England) sputter without Gronkowski to start the season, then play well with him, then sputter again without him,” says Korner. “Without Gronkowski, they’re not a 10-4 team. We saw that last week. The magic wasn’t there in the red zone and New England fell an interception short of a win.”

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 44)

This game holds weight for both teams but oddsmakers see the Chiefs with some added motivation at home Sunday. Kansas City is still in the hunt for the top overall record – and home field – in the AFC and also the AFC West crown.

The Colts, on the other hand, have already punched their postseason ticket with an AFC South title and could get a first-round bye if all goes right for them. But more than likely will be playing during the Wild Card weekend.

Korner says his stable of oddsmakers brought spreads between -4 and -7 to the table and settled on the higher end of the scale, due to the Chiefs current form heading into Week 16. Kansas City has won back-to-back road outings in blowout fashion.

“The Chiefs have scored a combined 101 points the past two weeks, and that’s what will stick out to bettors,” he says. “The mystique is gone after losing a few but they’ve regrouped and have the edge here at home.”


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47)

These teams played just two short weeks ago, making this spread an easy task for oddsmakers. The total, however, could be a bit trickier. New Orleans has suffered a major power outage on the road, scoring just 18.4 points per road game compared to 32.9 points at home. The Saints knocked off the Panthers 31-13 at home in Week 14.

“This is a revenge game for the Panthers, but all told, this is a pretty equal matchup,” says Korner. “The total wasn’t that bad to make. We had something to go by, with them playing recently, so we sent out 46 and now we’re seeing that move a bit. We didn’t have to think on it too much.”


Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 56)

The Eagles could earn the fourth seed in the NFC bracket and a win over Chicago would give them the inside track on any tie breakers versus the NFC North contenders. Philadelphia looked like it was the hottest team heading toward the postseason, but laid in egg in Minnesota.

The Bears are right in the mix of the NFC postseason hunt but will need to win the NFC North to make the cut. A win over the Eagles helps but a loss isn’t sudden death for Chicago.

Jay Cutler led the Bears to a second-straight win Sunday, replacing the serviceable Josh McCown under center. Korner admits he didn’t think there was much of a difference between the two QBs but says the bettors proved him wrong.

“I’m surprised. I dissed the Bears the last two weeks and they proved me wrong,” he says. “I realize that there is a difference between McCown and Cutler, but I don’t think it’s huge. However, the bettors do. They think Cutler is the difference maker.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Back Jets now versus terrible Browns

Spread to bet now

Cleveland Browns (+2) at New York Jets

Does anyone anywhere believe that the Browns have any life at all left in their bodies?

Another season has come and just about gone, and the Browns once again find themselves in familiar territory – with a string of late-season losses (the current tally is five in a row), little interest from the home fans and in firm possession of last place in the AFC North. Merry Christmas, Browns fans.

Now line up for your lumps of coal.

After getting booed off the field by the few remaining fans who had the misfortune of owning tickets to Sunday’s latest loss (38-31, to the Bears), Cleveland players must now lug a 4-10 record with them on the road, where the Brownies are 1-5 this season.

The Jets (5-2 at home this year) still have an outside shot at a wild card berth that could save the jobs of a lot of folks in Jersey, so they should be able to cover the deuce against an unmotivated Browns team.


Spread to wait on

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills

The public is pounding the Dolphins hard after their big victory over the Patriots, with three of every four dollars down backing the Fish. With that much early action on Miami, bettors might be able to hang on until late in the week and see if the number goes to 3.

Miami’s win over New England took place in 84-degree weather against a Patriots team that is only a shadow of what it used to be.

The Bills are 7-7 overall and have yet to be blown out at home this season. And if the temperature is even half of that 84, the Dolphins will be delighted

Miami has three-straight wins and will be looking to snag a wild card playoff spot, but Buffalo also has motivation – if the Bills lose, it would probably mean a sixth straight last-place finish in the AFC East and a huge roster turnover. Advice here is to hang tight and wait for the line to lengthen a bit.


Total to watch

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks(45)

Know this about the Seahawks – they play great defense, but they can also put points on the board at home. The poodle’s offense has put up 34 (vs. New Orleans), 41 (Minnesota) and 27 in its last three home games, so Seattle figures to be able to move the ball, even against a pretty good Cardinal team.

But, but, but ... Arizona QB Carson Palmer suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s victory at Tennessee and is listed as questionable for Seattle.

The Seahawks figure to come hard at Palmer, who has never been known for his work against blitzes. Going into Seattle with a gimpy starting QB or, even worse, a second-stringer, is poison.

Under is the play, even with a moderate number of 45.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Top 4: Potential playoff spoilers to watch out for

When you’re at the bottom of the conference standings at this point in the NFL season, there are two options: 1. Tank your remaining games and hope for a high draft pick. Or 2. Play out the remaining schedule and hope you can screw over someone’s postseason plans.

These four teams could be siding with the latter in the final weeks of the season. They have matchups with teams in the playoff mix and have shown a fighting spirit, which can be enough to throw a wrench in their opponents’ postseason plotting:

Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1 SU, 8-6 ATS)

The Vikings have a taste for spoiling playoff pushes already, knocking off the Eagles this past weekend. Minnesota is fighting tooth and nail down the stretch, going 3-2-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six games. Even without RBs Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart, the Vikes keep chugging along with third-stringer Matt Asiata and backup QB Matt Cassel leading the charge. Minnesota can mess up playoff pictures in both conference with games against Cincinnati (Vikings +7.5) and Detroit left on the table.

Buffalo Bills (5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Buffalo has only two wins in its last seven games but is still coming to play each Sunday. The Bills took a win from a turned-around Jaguars squad Sunday and host the Wild Card-chasing Dolphins in the cold at Ralph Wilson (Bills +2.5) this weekend. After that, Buffalo could snuff out the Patriots' push for home field with a finale in Foxborough. Buffalo already has its franchise QB in E.J. Manuel, so tanking is less likely. And, in an example of the Bills’ commitment to the season, WR Stevie Johnson played Sunday despite the sudden death of his mother the day before.

Atlanta Falcons (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS)

The Falcons are a prideful franchise and would love nothing more than to spoil the 49ers’ playoff chances after being edged by San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game last January. Atlanta visits the Bay Area as a 13-point underdog in the final Monday Night Football of the season. The Falcons held on for a win over Washington in Week 15 and are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four outings. Coach Mike Smith is still tinkering with his lineups each week, looking to improve one game to the next. After facing the Niners, Atlanta can trip up NFC South rival Carolina in Week 17.

St. Louis Rams (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS)

The Rams proved they’re not a team to be taken lightly with a dominant performance against New Orleans. St. Louis held the Saints to three points through three quarters and exploded for 27 points of its own, without top WR Tavon Austin in the lineup. The Rams are 5.5-point favorites hosting Tampa Bay Sunday but their big game comes in Seattle in Week 17. Depending on if Seattle locks down home field for the playoffs, St. Louis could be treating this challenge as its Super Bowl. The Rams put a scare in the Seahawks, losing 14-9 but covering as 13-point home dogs in Week 8.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Chicago at Philadelphia
The Eagles host a Chicago team that is coming off a 38-31 win over Cleveland and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 101-102: Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 136.068; Buffalo 126.204
Dunkel Line: Miami by 10; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: New Orleans at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 138.869; Carolina 139.379
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over

Game 105-106: Dallas at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 126.021; Washington 127.785
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 58
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 107-108: Tampa Bay at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.314; St. Louis 139.210
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 11; 39
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-4 1/2); Under

Game 109-110: Chicago at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.960; Philadelphia 141.210
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 56
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under

Game 111-112: Cleveland at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.027; NY Jets 123.904
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: Indianapolis at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.212; Kansas City 133.717
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7); Over

Game 115-116: Minnesota at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.450; Cincinnati 141.329
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 15; 43
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 48
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 117-118: Denver at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.319; Houston 122.900
Dunkel Line: Denver by 18 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10 1/2); Under

Game 119-120: Tennessee at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 123.915; Jacksonville 128.856
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+5 1/2); Over

Game 121-122: Arizona at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 139.612; Seattle 145.022
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Seattle by 11; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+11); Over

Game 123-124: NY Giants at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 125.987; Detroit 136.522
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-8 1/2); Under

Game 125-126: Oakland at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 119.966; San Diego 141.817
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 22; 47
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Under

Game 127-128: Pittsburgh at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.968; Green Bay 127.815
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 49
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 129-130: New England at Baltimore (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 134.129; Baltimore 138.618
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-2 1/2); Under


MONDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 131-132: Atlanta at San Francisco (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 129.779; San Francisco 139.849
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 10; 49
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 13; 45
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+13); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Sunday, December 22

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MIAMI (8 - 6) at BUFFALO (5 - 9) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
MIAMI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (10 - 4) at CAROLINA (10 - 4) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 50-26 ATS (+21.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (7 - 7) at WASHINGTON (3 - 11) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
DALLAS is 31-53 ATS (-27.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 10) at ST LOUIS (6 - 8) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 97-133 ATS (-49.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 104-136 ATS (-45.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (8 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (8 - 6) - 12/22/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CHICAGO is 10-31 ATS (-24.1 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 156-120 ATS (+24.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (4 - 10) at NY JETS (6 - 8) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 3) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (4 - 9 - 1) at CINCINNATI (9 - 5) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in games played on turf this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (11 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 12) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (5 - 9) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 10) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (9 - 5) at SEATTLE (12 - 2) - 12/22/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SEATTLE is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (5 - 9) at DETROIT (7 - 7) - 12/22/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC North division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (4 - 10) at SAN DIEGO (7 - 7) - 12/22/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-48 ATS (-26.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 8) at GREEN BAY (7 - 6 - 1) - 12/22/2013, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 4) at BALTIMORE (8 - 6) - 12/22/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 157-120 ATS (+25.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 23

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ATLANTA (4 - 10) at SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 4) - 12/23/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 16

Sunday, December 22

Miami at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Miami: 8-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Buffalo: 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 9-1 UNDER against conference opponents
Carolina: 30-11 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points

Dallas at Washington, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 25-11 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game
Washington: 2-8 ATS against conference opponents

Tampa Bay at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 17-7 OVER off 1 or more straight overs
St Louis: 16-30 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45

Chicago at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
Chicago: 12-4 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite

Cleveland at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 6-0 ATS in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7
NY Jets: 2-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Indianapolis at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 10-2 ATS in December games
Kansas City: 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Minnesota at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 0-7 ATS off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in home lined games

Denver at Houston, 1:00 ET
Denver: 16-5 ATS in games played on a grass field
Houston: 2-8 ATS against conference opponents

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 8-2 OVER in games played on a grass field
Jacksonville: 3-11 ATS in home games

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 10-25 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Seattle: 11-3 ATS in home games in games played on turf

NY Giants at Detroit, 4:05 ET
NY Giants: 6-0 ATS against NFC North division opponents
Detroit: 0-7 ATS off a non-conference game

Oakland at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 1-8 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
San Diego: 15-6 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Pittsburgh at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 7-3 ATS after the first month of the season
Green Bay: 1-6 ATS in the second half of the season

New England at Baltimore, 4:25 ET
New England: 0-6 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Baltimore: 11-2 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog


Mon, Dec. 23

Atlanta at San Francisco, 8:40 ET
Atlanta: 38-59 ATS off a home win
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS in home games off a road win

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NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Sunday, December 22

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CINCINNATI
Minnesota is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ST. LOUIS
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
St. Louis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. KANSAS CITY
Indianapolis is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Carolina is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. NY JETS
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 8 games

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. HOUSTON
Denver is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 15 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DETROIT
NY Giants are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing Detroit
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
Arizona is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 19 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing Oakland

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BALTIMORE
New England is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. GREEN BAY
Pittsburgh is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay12-2-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
Green Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games


Monday, December 23

8:40 PM
ATLANTA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Atlanta is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
San Francisco is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Atlanta
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta