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**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2013, 12:29 AM

MNF - Saints at Seahawks

November 26, 2013

The first heavyweight battle in the NFC takes place to kick off the month of December as the Saints travel cross-country to take on the one-loss Seahawks. Seattle benefits from having an extra week to prepare, but New Orleans received three days of prep after holding off its struggling division rival two Thursdays ago.

The Saints' main competition heading inside the NFC North to start the season was the Falcons, who were one touchdown away from making the Super Bowl last season. However, Atlanta fell into a huge hole thanks to key injuries on both sides of the ball, while not even becoming a factor in the division race. New Orleans made sure it wasn't going to slip up in Week 12, as the Saints held off the Falcons, 17-13, but failed to cash as 7 ½-point road favorites.

The win was the third straight for Sean Payton's club, as the Saints' defense held the Falcons out of the end zone for the final three quarters. Drew Brees tossed a pair of touchdowns, including a 44-yard strike to tight end Jimmy Graham for the go-ahead score in the second quarter. Even though the Saints grabbed a crucial road victory, New Orleans has cashed just once in five games away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Seahawks continue to be an absolute machine at home, winning their 13th straight contest at CenturyLink Field two weeks ago over the struggling Vikings. Seattle routed Minnesota, 41-20 to cash as 13-point favorites, as the Seahawks broke away with 21 unanswered points after leading, 17-13. The Seahawks racked up just 323 yards of offense, but Marshawn Lynch scored twice on the ground, while Russell Wilson threw multiple touchdown passes for the fifth straight game.

Seattle owns a one-game advantage over New Orleans for home-field advantage in the NFC playoff race, as both teams will likely be the top two seeds in the conference. Pete Carroll's team last lost at CenturyLink Field in Week 16 of the 2011 season against San Francisco, while covering 10 of 13 times during this hot streak (all three non-covers came as double-digit favorites).

The last time these teams met up, the Saints were knocked out of the Wild Card round by the Seahawks in the 2010 postseason. In spite of owning a better regular season record, New Orleans had to travel to the Pacific Northwest since Seattle won the NFC West and the Saints finished as a Wild Card squad. The Seahawks cashed outright as 9 ½-point home underdogs, 41-36, as Seattle erased an early 10-0 deficit to grab the upset. Lynch ran over the Saints' defense on the game-clinching 67-yard touchdown in the final minutes, while rushing for 131 yards in the win.

From a totals perspective, there has been little consistency in this department for both teams. The Saints are 6-5 to the 'under,' while going 3-2 to the 'under' in five games away from the Big Easy. Seattle has hit the 'over' in six of 11 games, including a 3-2 'over' mark at home. The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in four of five home contests, while the Saints have surprisingly been limited 20 points or fewer in three of five road outings.

New Orleans is listed as an underdog for just the third time this season, while splitting games at Chicago and New England in this role. The Saints are receiving at least four posting for the first time since Week 8 of last season in a 34-24 defeat at Denver, but that New Orleans team was without Payton and owned a historically horrible defense.

Seattle is laying single-digits at home for only the second time this season, as the Seahawks destroyed the 49ers in Week 2 as three-point favorites, 29-3. Since the start of the 2012 season, Seattle has won and covered all four opportunities as a home favorite of nine points or less, with each winning coming by double-digits.

The Seahawks are listed as 5 ½-point favorites, while the total is set at 47. The game can be seen on ESPN and kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from CenturyLink Field.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2013, 12:30 AM

2013 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS

1 Philadelphia at Washington -4, 52 33-27 Underdog-Over

1 Houston at San Diego -5, 44 31-28 Underdog-Over

2 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -7, 40 20-10 Favorite-Under

3 Oakland at Denver -16, 48 ½ 37-21 Push-Over

4 Miami at New Orleans -7, 50 38-17 Favorite-Over

5 N.Y. Jets at Atlanta -10, 45 30-28 Underdog-Over

6 Indianapolis at San Diego -1 ½, 51 19-9 Underdog-Under

7 Minnesota at N.Y. Giants -4, 47 ½ 23-7 Favorite-Under

8 Seattle at St. Louis -12, 43 ½ 14-9 Underdog-Under

9 Chicago at Green Bay +10 ½, 51 ½ 27-20 Underdog-Under

10 Miami at Tampa Bay +2 ½, 40 22-19 Underdog-Over

11 New England at Carolina -3, 46 ½ 24-20 Favorite-Under

12 San Francisco at Washington -5, 45 ½ 27-6 Favorite-Under

13 New Orleans at Seattle - - -

14 Dallas at Chicago - - -

15 Baltimore at Detroit - - -

16 Atlanta at San Francisco

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2013, 06:46 PM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Most popular, least popular picks in the LVH Super Contest, where 1,034 contestants pick five games each week of the NFL season........they paid $1,500 each to be in this contest, by the way.

Most pop. (26-49-3 vs spread)

1) Bills 255 - L
2) Buccaneers 247 - L
3) Broncos 231 - W
4) Seahawks 228
5) Jets 212 - L
6) Eagles 211 - T

Least popular (39-37-2)

32) Falcons 62 - W
31) Browns 64 - L
30) 49ers 76 - W
28) Panthers 100 - W
T25) Redskins 112 - L
T25) Vikings 112 - W

*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday........

13) Colts 22, Titans 14-- Indy finally led a game at halftime; they took ball away four times (+3) overcoming Titans' 83-yard advantage in total yards. It is not a good sign when you score one TD and kick five FGs, but Colts won and basically clinched their division, but its a weak division.

12) Broncos 35, Chiefs 28-- Andy Reid has gotten a lot out of these Chiefs, but they're not as good as Denver, who basically have 1.5-game lead in their division. Broncos averaged 11.5 yards per pass attempt, had 403 yards thru the air, converted 8-14 on third down.

11) Jaguars 32, Browns 28-- Jax won three of last four games after 0-8 start, so credit to Gus Bradley for keeping his team afloat. Weeden passed for 370 yards and three TDs, but Cleveland still hasn't won one of his starts.

10) Panthers 27, Buccaneers 6-- Carolina has won eight games in row (7-1 vs spread); they outgained Bucs 426-206- now they face the Saints in two of next three games, with NFC South at stake.

9) Vikings 23, Bears 20 OT-- There was a taunting penalty called on Bears that gave Minnesota a first down in red zone with about 5:00 left. This was as close to blatant cheating by an official as I've seen; players were yapping for three hours, and you call taunting in a 20-17 game with 5:00 left? Vikings threw an INT couple plays later, but still......

8) Eagles 24, Cardinals 21-- Arizona was -3 in turnovers, converted 4-12 on 3rd down, was -17 in field position, and lost by a FG. Eagles have won four games in a row; was impressed by both teams here.

7) Sunday college basketball scores of note:
-- Wichita State 70, Saint Louis 65- Nice road win for Shockers.
-- Fairleigh Dickinson 58, Seton Hall 54-- FDU also beat Rutgers; does that make them state champs of New Jersey?
-- UAB 63, North Carolina 59-- Tar Heels were 1-12 from arc, 4-11 on line. UAB was 22-28 on the line.
-- San Diego State 67, Marquette 59-- Steve Fisher has been with Aztecs for 13 years; they were horrible before he got there. Top 25 program now.
-- Miami 60, Arizona State 57-- Scores like this matter on Selection Sunday.
-- LSU 70, Butler 68, OT-- Pair of 2-point losses in Orlando for Bulldogs.
-- Purdue 68, Siena 63-- Saints were up 13 at the half.

6) Dolphins 23, Jets 3-- Geno Smith is quickly becoming more suspect than prospect; total yardage was 453-177 and Jets had only 78 passing yards, as the immortal Matt Simms (non-starter in college) played the second half. You have to give Miami coaches credit; they're 6-6 amidst incredible chaos.

5) Falcons 34, Bills 31 OT-- Ronde Barber is brutal on TV; Falcons had 3rd-and goal in red zone at 2:00 warning, trailing 31-24; Barber's analysis was that if Atlanta didn't make it on 3rd down, they should go for it on 4th down. Ya think??? Sometimes its just better to say nothing.

4) 49ers 23, Rams 13-- You cannot beat a good team on road with Clemens at QB, simple as that. he's not good, and the Rams' WRs, except for Austin, are still basically useless. Last seven 49ers wins are all by 10+ points. Jeff Fisher had a lousy game from a management standpoint, passing up an easy FG in a 23-6 game and trying a hideous fake punt inside his own 20.

3) Patriots 34, Texans 31-- Houston led 17-7 at half, lost for 10th time in a row. Patriots had zero penalties, second time this year they've done that; all season long, Miami in Week 2, Green Bay in Week 9 are only other teams to not have a penalty called against them.

2) Bengals 17, Chargers 10-- San Diego scored 31 second half points last week at Arrowhead, then laid an egg here on a sunny day at home. Big win for the Bengals, who maintain a two-game lead in the AFC North,.

1) Giants 24, Redskins 17-- Washington led 14-0 early on, but lost fourth game in row; they're 2-4 at home, with wins 45-41/30-24 OT. Giants are 5-1 in last six games. Who's going to tell Daniel Snyder his lousy team doesn't have their first round draft pick (#2 right now) next spring?

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2013, 06:47 PM

NFL Week 14 opening line report: Should Jaguars be favorites?

Like dating a fat girl or singing along to Taylor Swift, setting the Jacksonville Jaguars as betting favorites is just something you don’t want to get caught doing.

Sportsbooks are avoiding that pitfall by tabbing the red-hot Jaguars as 2.5-point home underdogs Thursday, hosting the Houston Texans – perhaps the only NFL team worse than Jacksonville at this point.

However, one Las Vegas oddsmaker isn’t afraid to admit that the Jaguars should probably be home favorites over Houston which, despite a valiant effort versus New England Sunday, hasn’t won a game since Week 2.

“I had Jacksonville as a favorite,” admits Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club. “We actually did send this game out as a pick’em, but Jacksonville has won three of their last four. Houston may have played well against New England but they’re not winning. Why would you want to bet on them? Jacksonville has nothing to lose. They’re playing very ‘loosey goosey’ right now.”

The Thursday Night Football spread wasn’t the only line Korner and his team of oddsmakers were torn on in Week 14. The Sports Club’s stable of linemakers also duked it out over the opening line for Oakland at New York and the Monday Night Football spread for Dallas at Chicago.

The Raiders opened as big as 2.5-point road underdogs in New York Sunday afternoon.

“I was the only one who favored Oakland,” says Korner, whose service sent out a suggested opening line of a pick’em. “For three games the Jets have had zero offense and now they’re pulling out quarterbacks and the fans are booing. Oakland is playing well. They aren’t getting blown out and regardless of whether (Matt) McGloin or (Terrellle) Pryor is playing, they’re the better team. I don’t see any momentum that would have money slammed down on the Jets.”

As for the Monday nighter, Korner says it may not matter – at least from a linemaking standpoint – if Bears starting QB Jay Cutler returns from an ankle injury or if backup Josh McCown continues to take snaps against Dallas in Week 14. The Sports Club settled on a suggested spread of Cowboys -2.5 and most books are waiting to hear more on Cutler’s status.

“I don’t think there’s much of a difference. Talent wise there is between Cutler and McCown, but I don’t think (Cutler being active) will cause a huge rush to the windows,” says Korner. “We like the way Dallas is playing right now, going 5-2 in their last seven. They’re playing with a lot of momentum. Cutler in or not, Dallas is the better team and we’d much rather be rooting for them Monday night.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 46)

The shine is off the Chiefs, who have dropped three in a row and find themselves as mere field-goal favorites visiting the lowly Redskins in Week 14.

“They’ve lost their luster,” Korner says of the Chiefs’ skid. “They’re back to where they’re supposed to be. This isn’t an all-time great team, especially with Alex Smith at quarterback. He has a track record of trailing off and Kansas City is starting to trail off. But Kansas City is the stronger team. Washington has looked pitiful and (Robert) Griffin is playing hurt and he’s… well let’s just say this ain’t last year.”

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

Korner says this line is almost a mirror image of the Cardinals-Eagles line from this past Sunday. Arizona may have had the better defense, but Detroit has the better offense this time around, making the process very similar for the oddsmakers.

“It’s basically the same game,” he says. “It should be a close game and the line is pretty much home field. Of course, the total is much higher.”

“We opened 52 and thought about going higher, but now we’re getting into the weather and it looks like it will be cold with possible storms hitting that part of the country," notes Korner.

The Sports Club sent out a suggested opening total of 52 points, however, books opened as large as 54.5 points. The forecast for Philadelphia is calling for temperatures in the mid 30s and a chance of snow.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2013, 06:48 PM

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

The Villanova Wildcats had fun in the sun this past weekend, shocking No. 2 Kansas and edging Iowa in overtime to win the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. The Wildcats narrowly avoided a massive letdown against the Hawkeyes in the championship game, overcoming a sloppy first half in which they committed 12 of their 19 turnovers. If it wasn’t for James Bell catching fire from beyond the arc, Villanova would have been a one-hit wonder this weekend.

It will be a shock to the system when the Wildcats return home. Not only does the bitter cold of Philadelphia sting extra when you’ve been soaking in the tropical heat but Villanova could come crashing back to earth against two tough opponents this week. The Wildcats face off against Big 5 rivals Penn Wednesday and St. Joseph’s Saturday. Be careful of overinflated Villanova’s bubble bursting this week.

Lookahead spot

The Houston Rockets are living up to the preseason hype, jumping out to a 13-5 record and winning five straight games heading into Monday’s matchup with Utah. The Rockets peaked with a 112-106 win over the division-leading Spurs Saturday and can make another huge statement in the Western Conference with a win over Golden State Friday.

But before Houston butts heads with the Warriors, it hosts the NBA’s best bet Wednesday night. The Phoenix Suns bring their 12-4-1 ATS mark (as of Monday) to the Honda Center, coming off a game in Memphis the night before. The Suns have hung tough with the best in the West, covering on the road in Oklahoma City, Denver and San Antonio this year, and enter the week as 8-1 ATS away from home. Phoenix went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in its four meetings with Houston last season.

Schedule spot

Some teams see the NFL Thanksgiving games as a burden, throwing a mid-week wrench into a team’s schedule so deep into the season. Others, like the Dallas Cowboys, have learned to cope with the Turkey Day tasks and benefit from them greatly in Week 14 of the season. Since scoring a comeback win over the Raiders last Thursday, the Cowboys will have 10 full days between games before taking the field in Chicago Monday night.

This extended break is huge for Dallas at this point in the season. Not only does the 10-day hiatus act as a mini bye week, giving the coaching staff added time to fine tune its gameplan for Monday, but it also allows the Cowboys to lick their many wounds. Dallas is expected to return top LB Sean Lee from a hamstring injury, and could get CB Morris Claiborne and return weapon Dwayne Harris back as well.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2013, 06:53 PM

Monday, December 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 8:40 PM ET New Orleans +6.5 500 *****

Seattle - Over 48 500 *****

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2013, 12:10 PM

NFL Week 14 opening line report: Should Jaguars be favorites?

Like dating a fat girl or singing along to Taylor Swift, setting the Jacksonville Jaguars as betting favorites is just something you don’t want to get caught doing.

Sportsbooks are avoiding that pitfall by tabbing the red-hot Jaguars as 2.5-point home underdogs Thursday, hosting the Houston Texans – perhaps the only NFL team worse than Jacksonville at this point.

However, one Las Vegas oddsmaker isn’t afraid to admit that the Jaguars should probably be home favorites over Houston which, despite a valiant effort versus New England Sunday, hasn’t won a game since Week 2.

“I had Jacksonville as a favorite,” admits Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club. “We actually did send this game out as a pick’em, but Jacksonville has won three of their last four. Houston may have played well against New England but they’re not winning. Why would you want to bet on them? Jacksonville has nothing to lose. They’re playing very ‘loosey goosey’ right now.”

The Thursday Night Football spread wasn’t the only line Korner and his team of oddsmakers were torn on in Week 14. The Sports Club’s stable of linemakers also duked it out over the opening line for Oakland at New York and the Monday Night Football spread for Dallas at Chicago.

The Raiders opened as big as 2.5-point road underdogs in New York Sunday afternoon.

“I was the only one who favored Oakland,” says Korner, whose service sent out a suggested opening line of a pick’em. “For three games the Jets have had zero offense and now they’re pulling out quarterbacks and the fans are booing. Oakland is playing well. They aren’t getting blown out and regardless of whether (Matt) McGloin or (Terrellle) Pryor is playing, they’re the better team. I don’t see any momentum that would have money slammed down on the Jets.”

As for the Monday nighter, Korner says it may not matter – at least from a linemaking standpoint – if Bears starting QB Jay Cutler returns from an ankle injury or if backup Josh McCown continues to take snaps against Dallas in Week 14. The Sports Club settled on a suggested spread of Cowboys -2.5 and most books are waiting to hear more on Cutler’s status.

“I don’t think there’s much of a difference. Talent wise there is between Cutler and McCown, but I don’t think (Cutler being active) will cause a huge rush to the windows,” says Korner. “We like the way Dallas is playing right now, going 5-2 in their last seven. They’re playing with a lot of momentum. Cutler in or not, Dallas is the better team and we’d much rather be rooting for them Monday night.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 46)

The shine is off the Chiefs, who have dropped three in a row and find themselves as mere field-goal favorites visiting the lowly Redskins in Week 14.

“They’ve lost their luster,” Korner says of the Chiefs’ skid. “They’re back to where they’re supposed to be. This isn’t an all-time great team, especially with Alex Smith at quarterback. He has a track record of trailing off and Kansas City is starting to trail off. But Kansas City is the stronger team. Washington has looked pitiful and (Robert) Griffin is playing hurt and he’s… well let’s just say this ain’t last year.”

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

Korner says this line is almost a mirror image of the Cardinals-Eagles line from this past Sunday. Arizona may have had the better defense, but Detroit has the better offense this time around, making the process very similar for the oddsmakers.

“It’s basically the same game,” he says. “It should be a close game and the line is pretty much home field. Of course, the total is much higher.”

“We opened 52 and thought about going higher, but now we’re getting into the weather and it looks like it will be cold with possible storms hitting that part of the country," notes Korner.

The Sports Club sent out a suggested opening total of 52 points, however, books opened as large as 54.5 points. The forecast for Philadelphia is calling for temperatures in the mid 30s and a chance of snow.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2013, 12:10 PM

NFL line watch: Titans backers should act fast

Spread to bet now

Tennessee Titans (+13.5) at Denver Broncos

If you like the Titans to keep this one close, then I'd recommend jumping on this line as fast as possible. While you can still get a 13.5 at 5Dimes as of printing, for the most part 12 is the predominating number across the board. It's likely to drop even lower.

Tennessee is coming off a hard-fought 22-14 loss in Indianapolis last week and catches a somewhat complacent home side coming off its second victory of the season over division rival Kansas City. As good as Denver is, there is no question that this sets up as a natural "letdown/trap" game for the Broncos, with a contest vs. division rival San Diego next week.

While the Titans have struggled for bettors at home this year, they've been a non-stop profit buffet on the road all season, going a near-perfect 5-1 ATS so far. Expect this line to continue to drop as the week wares on.

Spread to wait on

St. Louis Rams (+6) at Arizona Cardinals

Divisional contests at this time of year are always important. If you think the Rams can bounce back from their 23-13 setback at San Francisco last week and hand the Cardinals a second-straight loss, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kick-off before getting involved with this one.

This line opened at 6 and while that is pretty much the predominating number across the board as of printing, there is a 6.5 (Pinnacle) and even a 7 (5Dimes) available right now as well. I think this number could go even higher. Bettors are jumping on Arizona as it looks to bounce back from its first loss in four games and to avenge a 27-24 setback in St. Louis in Week 1.

With two straight on the road, including a game in Seattle on December 22nd, this contest takes on added importance for the home side. Expect this line to continue to climb as we get closer to kickoff.

Total to watch

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (50.5)

Once again we look to the Denver Broncos for this week's total to watch. Denver has seen the total go 10-2 this year, 5-1 at home and 5-1 on the road.

As mentioned above, the Broncos most recently beat the Chiefs for a second time in the last three weeks, a 35-28 barn-burner, the total sailing above the posted number of 49.5 in that one.This total opened at 50.5, but is already starting to drop, with 50's and even a 49.5 on the board as of printing (5Dimes).

Tennessee has seen the total go 2-3-1 on the road so far this year. If you're planning no playing the "under", consider getting involved as soon as possible.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2013, 12:11 PM

Capping the calendar: December's best/worst NFL bets

And down the stretch they come.

With December upon us, the 2013 NFL season heads in to the final quarter of the season and with it our final take on monthly teams trends.

Please note that all trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise. Enjoy…

HOME TEAMS

• Good: Whether Seattle had a good team or a not so good team, they always are tough to beat at home. This is true in December as well at 31-15 ATS. Besides the big Monday night battle with New Orleans, their final two games of the season are at Century Link Field against Arizona and St. Louis.

• Keep an eye on (Good): Aaron Rodgers is expected to return and Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy has stated his team needs a 4-0 finish to have a shot at the playoffs. At home this month, the Packers are 30-16 ATS and Atlanta along with Pittsburgh will visit, giving them two shots at covers.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Large group to keep an eye on here. St. Louis is 16-26 ATS and will have NFC South teams New Orleans and Tampa Bay in weeks 15-16.

The New York Jets slate of Miami, Oakland and Cleveland is not necessarily foreboding, but the offense is sure to have coal left in the stocking of the quarterback position. Gang Green is 16-30 ATS in New Jersey.

New Orleans is 18-32 ATS at home and at least part of this in recent years is they have wrapped up the division late in the season and are playing backups. Before Drew Brees and Sean Payton, they just stunk.

Oakland has been a play against home team no matter the month for years and facing Kansas City and Denver is not likely to improve their chances.

AWAY TEAMS

• Good: The hottest team in the NFL, Carolina, has been road warriors for years and is a sensational 24-12 ATS in the final month of the year. The Panthers have a HUGE game at New Orleans on Dec. 8 and end the season at hapless Atlanta.

• Bad: This flies under the radar unless you are sharp handicapper or a Bears fan. Chicago is Grinch-like 11-32 ATS in road games, stealing money from its followers and makes trips to Cleveland and Philadelphia in consecutive weeks. Wonder what those in Whoville will be thinking?

Before Jim Harbaugh arrived, San Francisco was ripe play against material late in the season, accounting for their 16-32 ATS figure. They will go to Tampa Bay and Arizona to improve that number.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Like cold weather in the Midwest and East this time of year, Dallas struggling on the road fits the season. The Cowboys are 19-32 ATS away and will be in the Windy City for a Monday night affair and at the hated Redskins just before Christmas, trying to win a division title.

FAVORITES

• Bad: The weather might be nice in South Florida, but the Miami Dolphins are scarier than room full of Santa Clauses when doling out points. The Fins are a miserable 20-41 ATS as favs. Two contests to possibly be careful of the Dolphins are Week 16 at Buffalo and the season finale versus the Jets.

• Keep an eye on (Good): Green Bay is a fantastic 44-23 in December and if Rodgers stays healthy, they will be favored in their two home games. But with how unsightly the defense has become, little chance they will be a favorite at Dallas or Chicago.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): We won’t know for sure, but Dallas could be favored as many as three times this month and conceivably four if the public likes them against the Bears. At 18-33 ATS, it might be wise to find another team to consider for this role. Note: Tony Romo is 4-14 ATS as a favorite during December in his NFL career.

The New York Jets will be handing out points to Oakland and Cleveland, but with their quarterback situation and a 14-26 ATS mark, this might be harder to swallow than Aunt Margaret’s fruitcake.

UNDERDOGS

• Good: With Carolina being such a good wager on the road, naturally they would be a Play On underdog. However, with this year’s team, fewer opportunities will be available and just the Dec. 8th matchup at New Orleans should place them in this role.

Besides Carolina, Seattle also fits the bill and they are 39-19 ATS on the receiving end of digits and they might see only one or two points at San Francisco on the second Sunday of the month.

• Bad: With how bad the Chicago Bears defense is in 2013, they should be a frequent underdog in December and could well add onto an abysmal 16-34 ATS mark.

• Keep an eye on (Good): New England is 21-11 ATS in the underdog role and only a trip Baltimore could place them in that position this month.

The New York Giants are notorious closers and are a sparkling 31-18 ATS as a pooch. This year’s team lacks the same qualities of more recent vintage and they might be hard-pressed to match previous levels at San Diego, vs. Seattle and at Detroit in the middle games of the month.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): St. Louis in November showed signs of improvement, but with three division road games and hosting New Orleans, hard to imagine they will improve as underdogs at 19-33 ATS.

DIVISION

• Good: No team in any month can match Carolina’s 23-8 ATS record versus division opponents and they will have four shots against their rivals to close 2013.

New England is also very good at 28-14 ATS, being the dominant team for more than a decade in the AFC East. The Patriots will be at Miami on the 15th and host Buffalo in the final game of the season.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Starting the month as part of a large group of 5-6 teams with a chance to be a wild card club, Miami will play in division four times and with how the Jets and Buffalo are playing, the Dolphins could make a move. They will have to overcome the ghosts of December past with a 16-31 ATS mark.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2013, 12:11 PM

Snow and rain to dampen this weekend's football schedule

NFL and college football bettors beware, there is a high probability of messy conditions this weekend, including snow and rain. So when it comes to handicapping the games this week make sure to keep an eye out on the elements in several cities.

In this weekend's the NFL action, there is a 50 percent, or greater, chance of snow in Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington when the Ravens, Eagles and Redskins face the Vikings, Lions and Chiefs respectively. In Cincinnati there is a 35 percent chance of snow when the Colts come to town.

A few cities in warmer climates may also not be able to escape the precipitation this weekend. There is a 16 percent chance of rain in Tampa Bay when the Bills take on the Buccaneers and there will be a 23 percent chance of rain when the Giants travel to San Diego to battle the Chargers.

In college action:

There will be a 43 percent chance of rain for the ACC title game when Duke takes on Florida State.

In two huge Big 12 matchups this weekend, three teams will battle each other and the weather for the conference championship. Texas travels to Waco to face Baylor where there is a 32 percent chance of freezing rain and Oklahoma will clash with Oklahoma State where there is a 10 percent chance of snow.

In the AAC, Louisville plays at Cincinnati where there is a 60 percent chance of rain and UCF travels to Southern Methodist where there is a 31 percent chance of freezing rain.

And there is a 40 percent chance of rain in Houston when Marshall battles Rice for the C-USA title.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2013, 12:13 PM

December Team Trends

December 2, 2013

And down the stretch they come.

With December upon us, the 2013 NFL season heads in to the final quarter of the season and with it our final take on monthly teams trends.

Please note that all trends are ATS (Against the Spread) unless noted otherwise.

Enjoy…

HOME TEAMS

Good: Whether Seattle had a good team or a not so good team, they always are tough to beat at home. This is true in December as well at 31-15 ATS. Besides the big Monday night battle with New Orleans, their final two games of the season are at Century Link Field against Arizona and St. Louis.

Keep an eye on (Good): Aaron Rodgers is expected to return and Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy has stated his team needs a 4-0 finish to have a shot at the playoffs. At home this month, the Packers are 30-16 ATS and Atlanta along with Pittsburgh will visit, giving them two shots at covers.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Large group to keep an eye on here. St. Louis is 16-26 ATS and will have NFC South teams New Orleans and Tampa Bay in weeks 15-16.

The New York Jets slate of Miami, Oakland and Cleveland is not necessarily foreboding, but the offense is sure to have coal left in the stocking of the quarterback position. Gang Green is 16-30 ATS in New Jersey.

New Orleans is 18-32 ATS at home and at least part of this in recent years is they have wrapped up the division late in the season and are playing backups. Before Drew Brees and Sean Payton, they just stunk.

Oakland has been a play against home team no matter the month for years and facing Kansas City and Denver is not likely to improve their chances.

AWAY TEAMS

Good: The hottest team in the NFL, Carolina, has been road warriors for years and is a sensational 24-12 ATS in the final month of the year. The Panthers have a HUGE game at New Orleans on Dec. 8 and end the season at hapless Atlanta.

Bad: This flies under the radar unless you are sharp handicapper or a Bears fan. Chicago is Grinch-like 11-32 ATS in road games, stealing money from its followers and makes trips to Cleveland and Philadelphia in consecutive weeks. Wonder what those in Whoville will be thinking?

Before Jim Harbaugh arrived, San Francisco was ripe play against material late in the season, accounting for their 16-32 ATS figure. They will go to Tampa Bay and Arizona to improve that number.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Like cold weather in the Midwest and East this time of year, Dallas struggling on the road fits the season. The Cowboys are 19-32 ATS away and will be in the Windy City for a Monday night affair and at the hated Redskins just before Christmas, trying to win a division title.

FAVORITES

Bad: The weather might be nice in South Florida, but the Miami Dolphins are scarier than room full of Santa Clauses when doling out points. The Fins are a miserable 20-41 ATS as favs. Two contests to possibly be careful of the Dolphins are Week 16 at Buffalo and the season finale versus the Jets.

Keep an eye on (Good): Green Bay is a fantastic 44-23 in December and if Rodgers stays healthy, they will be favored in their two home games. But with how unsightly the defense has become, little chance they will be a favorite at Dallas or Chicago.

Keep an eye on (Bad): We won’t know for sure, but Dallas could be favored as many as three times this month and conceivably four if the public likes them against the Bears. At 18-33 ATS, it might be wise to find another team to consider for this role. Note: Tony Romo is 4-14 ATS as a favorite during December in his NFL career.

The New York Jets will be handing out points to Oakland and Cleveland, but with their quarterback situation and a 14-26 ATS mark, this might be harder to swallow than Aunt Margaret’s fruitcake.

UNDERDOGS

Good: With Carolina being such a good wager on the road, naturally they would be a Play On underdog. However, with this year’s team, fewer opportunities will be available and just the Dec. 8th matchup at New Orleans should place them in this role.

Besides Carolina, Seattle also fits the bill and they are 39-19 ATS on the receiving end of digits and they might see only one or two points at San Francisco on the second Sunday of the month.

Bad: With how bad the Chicago Bears defense is in 2013, they should be a frequent underdog in December and could well add onto an abysmal 16-34 ATS mark.

Keep an eye on (Good): New England is 21-11 ATS in the underdog role and only a trip Baltimore could place them in that position this month.

The New York Giants are notorious closers and are a sparkling 31-18 ATS as a pooch. This year’s team lacks the same qualities of more recent vintage and they might be hard-pressed to match previous levels at San Diego, vs. Seattle and at Detroit in the middle games of the month.

Keep an eye on (Bad): St. Louis in November showed signs of improvement, but with three division road games and hosting New Orleans, hard to imagine they will improve as underdogs at 19-33 ATS.

DIVISION

Good: No team in any month can match Carolina’s 23-8 ATS record versus division opponents and they will have four shots against their rivals to close 2013.

New England is also very good at 28-14 ATS, being the dominant team for more than a decade in the AFC East. The Patriots will be at Miami on the 15th and host Buffalo in the final game of the season.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Starting the month as part of a large group of 5-6 teams with a chance to be a wild card club, Miami will play in division four times and with how the Jets and Buffalo are playing, the Dolphins could make a move. They will have to overcome the ghosts of December past with a 16-31 ATS mark.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2013, 12:10 AM

49ers prepare for rival Seahawks

December 3, 2013

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - Donte Whitner realizes how different the San Francisco 49ers are now from the team that got whipped at Seattle in Week 2.

He's still plenty bothered by that 29-3 loss to the rival Seahawks, and ready to play them again Sunday at Candlestick Park and boost San Francisco's position in the playoff picture.

''They embarrassed us last time we were there,'' Whitner said. ''We feel like we'll be ready for the test, and it's going to be a really, really big game and we're looking forward to it.''

The reigning NFC champion Niners (8-4) need every win at this stage - and a victory against first-place Seattle could put them right back in the division title picture, too.

''As much as we want to play these guys and seek revenge, we have to keep our composure and approach the next game like it's the same one we approached last week,'' tight end Vernon Davis said. ''We have to approach it like that.''

Considering the Seahawks have outscored the 49ers 71-16 in the last two meetings - both wins by Seattle at home - San Francisco's players feel they have something to prove against their biggest NFC nemesis.

Whitner called for the defense to continue making key stands and he expects his unit to help decide how the season turns out. The offense is determined to keep doing its part now that things are clicking again for Colin Kaepernick and Co.

A 23-13 victory against St. Louis on Sunday gave San Francisco consecutive wins in commanding fashion following a two-game skid, and the offense is on a roll at the perfect time: With the December stretch run ahead, a time coach Jim Harbaugh insists is built only for the tough.

''I guess we will find out,'' defensive tackle Justin Smith said. ''We've got Seattle coming in here and they are sitting on top of the division. We are going to be ready for those guys and give them what we've got.''

The Seahawks solidified their position among the league's elite on Monday night, manhandling the New Orleans Saints 34-7 to become the first team to clinch a spot in the NFL playoffs. They improved to 11-1 and have a two-game lead in the race for home-field advantage in the NFC.

Even so, the Niners believe things will be different from that Week 2 mismatch on Sept. 15.

''We've changed and I'm sure they've changed in some ways,'' Harbaugh said. ''Not prepared to say in what ways.''

One way is clear for the 49ers.

The passing game is making significant strides, and it helps that Kaepernick has his receiving corps healthy and intact at last. First Mario Manningham returned from a serious knee injury that prematurely ended his 2012 season and made him a Super Bowl spectator, then Michael Crabtree made his season debut Sunday six months after surgery for a torn right Achilles tendon.

Crabtree, San Francisco's top wide receiver last season, had a pair of catches with a 60-yarder and forced the Rams' defense to focus on both him and Anquan Boldin. Boldin had nine catches, while Davis caught a 17-yard touchdown pass for No. 50 of his career.

Boldin, Crabtree and Kaepernick believe they have more big games ahead.

''I don't think we're playing at our top level,'' Boldin said. ''I don't think we've played our best football yet. We have some things we have to clean up.''

With division games down the stretch all the more meaningful, emotions run high. Harbaugh is fine with that, as long as his players make good decisions.

''I've never taken the revenge approach,'' Harbaugh said. ''Validation, we want to play well, we want to win. ... Your goal is to win the football game. That's really all-consuming, you want to win.''

NOTES: When asked whether he approves of Davis' high-hurdling move - done twice Sunday - the coach said: ''How many have got 40-inch vertical jumps? Just thought Vernon played exceptional.''... Harbaugh expects Joe Looney to practice with the first-team offensive line at right guard this week with the possible absence of LT Joe Staley. He went down with a right knee injury early in Sunday's game and Alex Boone moved into his spot. Staley was having further exams Monday. ... LG Mike Iupati also was scheduled for an exam on his sprained left knee that sidelined him the past two games.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-05-2013, 06:41 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Houston at Jacksonville
The Jaguars host a Houston team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite. Jacksonville is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Jaguars favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5

Game 101-102: Houston at Jacksonville (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.312; Jacksonville 127.865
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 6 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Over

**StarDust Bum** · 12-05-2013, 06:42 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (2 - 10) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 9) - 12/5/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Announcement

The Bum's NFL December's POD'S-Trends-Stats !

The Bum's NFL December's POD'S-Trends-Stats !

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