The Bum's NFL December's POD'S-Trends-Stats !

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 17

Sun, Dec. 29

Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-2 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
Atlanta: 4-17 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 56-34 ATS in December
Chicago: 2-9 ATS against conference opponents

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Houston: 2-9 ATS against conference opponents
Tennessee: 28-14 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 20-35 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Pittsburgh: 14-4 ATS at home after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5

Washington at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Washington: 11-2 ATS in road games after 2 straight losses by 6 or less points
NY Giants: 11-3 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 37-21 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Cincinnati: 60-89 ATS versus division opponents

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 6-17 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Indianapolis: 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Philadelphia at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 29-14 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent
Dallas: 1-8 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points

NY Jets at Miami, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 17-6 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent
Miami: 2-10 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 3-12 ATS after 2 straight losses by 6 or less points
Minnesota: 10-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 21 or more points

Buffalo at New England, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 7-18 ATS in road games off a home win against a division rival
New England: 29-12 ATS in the last 2 weeks of the regular season

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 4-14 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
New Orleans: 9-1 ATS in home games off a road loss

Denver at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Denver: 8-1 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3
Oakland: 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 25 points or more in 3 games

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 3-13 ATS in road games after playing on Monday night football
Arizona: 38-21 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent

Kansas City at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 46-68 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3
San Diego: 17-6 ATS in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4

St Louis at Seattle, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 15-37 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game
Seattle: 9-1 ATS off 4 or more consecutive unders

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NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

When marquee players go down with injuries, oddsmakers notice and value is lost for bettors. The key is to find lesser-known players that could have an impact on the scoreboard. Here are four NFL injuries not to undervalue in Week 17.

Tony Gonzalez, WR, Atlanta Falcons (Questionable, toe).

Despite having a 4-11-0 record, the Falcons are ranked 6th in total passing yards averaging 267.5 and 12th in total yards averaging 345.5. Of the Falcons 35 offensive touchdowns, 24 have come through the air. There's no surprise one of quarterback Matt Ryan's favorite targets has been Tony Gonzalez with 39 receptions for 803 yards and 6 TDs. The Falcons host a Panthers team with a defense ranked 7th against the pass, 2nd against the rush and allow the fewest points per game with 14.7. Atlanta will likely struggle putting up points while the Panthers look to clinch the NFC South and get a first-round bye.

Atlanta is a 6-point home underdog against the Panthers. The total is 45.5.


Dennis Johnson, RB, Houston Texans (Questionable, hip).

With three running backs already on injured reserve (Ben Tate Arian Foster, and Deji Karim) the Texans find themselves in trouble at the running back position. Running back Dennis Johnson is questionable with a hip injury which may leave him on the Texans sideline alongside many others. If Johnson does not start, Jonathan Grimes and rookies Ray Graham and Toben Opurum will be the Texans backs. This may not be such a meaningless game for Houston with players competing for starting jobs and roster spots in 2014 and rookies trying to prove their worth.

The Texans are 7-point road underdogs against Tennessee. The total is 43.5.


Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens (Questionable, hamstring).

The defending Superbowl Champion Ravens find their playoff hopes still alive but almost all of it rests on a victory in Week 17 against the Bengals. The Ravens are ranked 26th in points averaging 20.2, 29th in total yards with 313.1 and 28th in rushing yards with 85.4. One part of the Ravens' offensive struggles has been the battle of injuries all year especially at the wide receiver position. In 2013 Smith has 62 receptions for 1101 yards and 4 TDs. Baltimore will likely struggle to run the ball against a Bengals team ranked 6th against the run allowing only 99.8 yards per game.

The Ravens are 6-point road underdogs against the Bengals. The total is 44.5.


Cullen Jenkins, DT, New York Giants, (Questionable, shin/quad).

The New York Giants defense has been the saving grace of a team that has played so poorly all season. The Giants defense have allowed 337.7 total yards, good for 12th, 227.5 passing yards (13th) and 110.1 rushing yards ranking 15th. One aspect the Giants have struggled with defensively is pressuring the quarterback. The Giants are tied for 25th in total sacks with 31.0. With their tackle Jenkins out, the Giants may have difficulty with the Redskins who are ranked 5th in rushing yards with 138.2 and 9th in total yards with 377.6. With both teams having pride and jobs to play for, the Giants will feel the defensive presence of Jenkins missed.

The Giants are 3.5-point home favorites against the Redskins. The total is 45.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 17

December 28, 2013


Week 16 Recap

The ‘under’ produced an 11-5 record last week, which sort of helped the guys behind the betting counter. Unfortunately, the two primetime games both went ‘over’ and Monday’s outcome between the 49ers-Falcons summed up totals in the NFL this season. Atlanta led 10-3 at the break and anybody who had ‘over’ 46 ½ was probably ready to chalk up the loss. Even after the 49ers took a 13-10 lead heading into the final 15 minutes, things didn’t look great but that was before the 35-point explosion in the fourth quarter. On the season, the ‘over’ now holds a 126-110-5 (53%) edge.

AFC vs. NFC

Since every game is a divisional battle this week, the non-conference trend won’t be in play until the Super Bowl. I’ve personally never seen a trend perform at such a consistent rate throughout an entire season. For those keeping records, in a day of low-scoring affairs the Cincinnati-Minnesota and Pittsburgh-Green Bay matchups still went ‘over’ their numbers last Sunday. After 16 weeks, the ‘over’ finished with a 50-15 (77%) mark in non-conference games this season. Congrats to all who followed and a special thanks to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence for bringing it to our attention.

Line Moves

The Line Moves went 1-4 last week and those results aren’t surprising, especially with the inordinate amount of ‘under’ tickets. Overall, the moves are now barely ahead (40-35-1) after 16 weeks. Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening. We haven’t seen much movement and two of the games listed below moved due to the status of QBs.

San Francisco at Arizona: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41 ½
St. Louis at Seattle: Line opened 44 ½ and dropped to 41 ½
Green Bay at Chicago: Line opened 51 and jumped to 52 ½
Philadelphia at Dallas: Line opened 55 ½ and dropped to 53

Meaningless

The NFL has done a pretty good job by making Week 17 relevant and this week’s slate will only have three games that have no playoff implications whatsoever. If you’re out and about this Sunday afternoon and you’re dialed into one of the below games, you might hear somebody say, “Who the hell is watching this game?”

Houston at Tennessee
Washington at N.Y. Giants
Detroit at Minnesota

Meaningful

Since three games are meaningless on Sunday, that means 13 games will have at least one team going all out.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers beat the Falcons 34-10 at home on Nov. 3, which saw the ‘under’ (46 ½) cash. Carolina has been a great ‘under’ bet (10-4-1) all season but Atlanta has seen the ‘over’ go 5-2 and I would be surprised to see the Falcons lay down in their finale. The loss of wide receiver Steve Smith (leg) will likely hurt Carolina's attack.

Green Bay at Chicago: Very high total for a matchup that has seen the ‘under’ go 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. The Packers offense should get a boost with QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb back in the lineup, especially against a shaky Bears defense. Both Green Bay (4-1) and Chicago (5-1) have closed the season with strong ‘over’ runs.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The 'under' is on a 4-1 run between these teams, which includes Pittsburgh's 27-11 road win over Cleveland on Nov. 24. Make a note that the Steelers have watched their last four games go 'over' the number.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The ‘under’ has cashed in each of the last two encounters, which includes Baltimore’s 20-17 win over Cincinnati on Nov. 10.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The Jaguars and Colts have seen their last five meetings go ‘under’ the number, yet this week’s total is hovering around 45 points.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: The Dolphins captured a 23-3 road win over the Jets on Dec. 1. Including this outcome, the ‘under’ is on a 5-1 in this series.

Buffalo at New England: The Patriots stopped the Bills 23-21 in Week 1 on the road and the combined 44 points fell ‘under’ the closing number of 50 ½. Prior to this result, the ‘over’ was on a 4-0 run and New England scored 31, 49, 52, 37 points during this span.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Even though the Saints score in bunches at home, the ‘under’ is 4-3 in the first seven games played at the Superdome this season. This is another matchup with a high total (47 ½), yet bettors have watched the ‘under’ go 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the pair.

Denver at Oakland: Tough game to handicap because Denver might call off the dogs in the second-half if they get up big. The first-half total or team total seems doable on the Broncos, especially when you know that Peyton and company have put up 37, 26 and 37 in his last three battles against Oakland.

San Francisco at Arizona: The 49ers beat the Cardinals 32-20 at home on Oct. 13 and the ‘over’ 40 ½ connected. The number on the rematch (41 ½) is in the same neighborhood and both teams will be looking to win here. The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series.

Kansas City at San Diego: The Chargers outlasted the Chiefs 41-38 in the first encounter this season and the rematch is expected to feature plenty of reserves from Kansas City, who have already clinched the fifth seed in the AFC.

St. Louis at Seattle: The oddsmakers made a mistake opening this game at 44 ½ and the number has dropped to 42 ½. The ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run in this series and St. Louis hasn’t scored more than 13 points in its last six trips to Washington.

Philadelphia at Dallas: (See Below)

Under the Lights

As mentioned above, the ‘over’ went 2-0 in the primetime games last week. Overall, the ‘over’ has gone 28-21 (57%) in contests played under the lights this week.

The Week 17 SNF finale will feature Philadelphia at Dallas from Arlington, Texas. The winner will claim the NFC East and the loser will be sent packing. Obviously this game has lost some luster with Cowboys QB Tony Romo (back) ruled ‘out’ and Kyle Orton taking his place. The oddsmakers adjusted the number up on the Eagles and the total dipped as well.

In the first meeting, Dallas dominated Philadelphia 17-3 on the road in Week 7. The Cowboys defense arguably played their best game of the season and Eagles QB Nick Foles (11-of-29, 8- yards) looked horrible before he exited early with an injury. Since this matchup, Foles has been incredible and the Dallas defense has been atrocious.

So what happens in the rematch? The Eagles cashed last week on SNF for the public with the Favorite-Over combo and some will likely press that button again. Since Chip Kelly is now the coach with the Eagles, I don’t believe the past head-to-head history should be weighed heavily, even more so with Orton starting for Romo. I did do some quick research on the SNF finale in Week 17 the past five years and there are some trends to watch. The ‘under’ has cashed the last three seasons and the home team has won the previous five SNF finales.

2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)

Fearless Predictions

We went 1-3 last week and dropped $220. After 15 weeks of making selections within our fictitious bankroll, we’re up $20. Tough week to bet totals but I’m confident that we’ll be in the black come the playoffs. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Houston-Tennessee 44
Best Under: Carolina-Atlanta 46
Best Team Total: Over Houston 19

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 35 Houston-Tennessee
Over 42 Detroit-Minnesota
Under 51 Seattle-St. Louis

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Week 17 Tips

December 29, 2013


Ravens at Bengals (-6 ½, 44) - 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore: 8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS
Cincinnati: 10-5 SU, 9-5-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Bengals picked up their seventh home victory of the season in a 42-14 blowout of the Vikings as 7 ½-point favorites. Cincinnati has scored at least 40 points in each of its last four games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Ravens saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 41-7 home defeat to the Patriots, putting themselves in a must-win situation on Sunday to get into the playoffs.

Previous meeting result: Cincinnati forced overtime with a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Andy Dalton to A.J. Green in the final seconds back in Week 10. However, the Ravens came out on top with a Justin Tucker field goal in overtime, as Baltimore edged Cincinnati, 23-20 to cash as one-point favorites.

Betting notes: The Ravens have won just two road games this season, with both of those victories coming by three points or less at Miami and Detroit. Cincinnati has easily cashed the 'over' in each of its last four home contests, while winning four of its past five against division foes at Paul Brown Stadium.

Jets at Dolphins (-5 ½, 41 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

New York: 7-8 SU, 8-6-1 ATS
Miami: 8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS

Last week's results: The Dolphins put up a clunker in a 16-0 defeat at Buffalo last Sunday, ending a three-game winning streak. Miami gained just 103 yards of offense, while getting swept by the last-place Bills this season. The Jets pulled off a 24-13 home triumph over the Browns, improving to 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite at Met Life Stadium.

Previous meeting result: Miami blew out New York earlier this month, 23-3, as Ryan Tannehill tossed two touchdown passes and threw for 331 yards. The Dolphins have won three of the last four meetings with the Jets, while five of the past six matchups have finished 'under' the total.

Betting notes: The Jets have failed to win consecutive games this season, posting an 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 ATS record off a victory. The Dolphins have cashed the 'under' in five of the previous six contests, including three straight 'unders' at Sun Life Stadium.

49ers (-1, 42) at Cardinals - 4:25 PM EST

San Francisco: 11-4 SU, 10-5 ATS
Arizona: 10-5 SU, 11-4 ATS

Last week's results: The 49ers won their fifth consecutive contest, knocking off the Falcons, 34-24, but failed to cash as 14-point favorites in the final regular season game at Candlestick Park. The Cardinals are still hanging around in the NFC playoff race, winning their 10th game of the season in a 17-10 upset of the Seahawks as eight-point underdogs, snapping Seattle's 14-game home winning streak.

Previous meeting result: San Francisco held off Arizona, 32-20 in Week 6 at Candlestick Park, as the 49ers barely cashed as 10-point 'chalk.' The Niners led by two points with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, but a touchdown and a field goal lifted Jim Harbaugh's team to the division victory and cover.

Betting notes: Since getting blown out at Seattle in Week 2, the 49ers have compiled a 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU record away from Candlestick Park. The Niners have allowed 24 points or less in 12 straight games, while going 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 5 ½ points or less. The Cardinals have covered six consecutive games, while winning six of seven contests at University of Phoenix Stadium. Arizona has struggled against division foes since beating Seattle to start the 2012 season, owning a 2-8 SU record within the NFC West.

Packers (-3, 52) at Bears - 4:25 PM EST

Green Bay: 7-7-1 SU, 6-9 ATS
Chicago: 8-7 SU, 4-10-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Packers lost a shootout to the Steelers, 38-31, snapping a modest two-game winning streak. Green Bay will get Aaron Rodgers back under center after missing the last seven games with a collarbone injury (2-4-1 SU and 1-6 ATS). The Bears were humbled in a 54-11 whipping at Philadelphia last Sunday night, as Chicago has allowed 85 points in the last two weeks. Chicago's normally reliable defense gave up at least 40 points in four road losses this season, while going 6-2 to the 'over' on the highway.

Previous meeting result: The start of Green Bay's tail-spin began in Week 9 when Rodgers was knocked out in the opening quarter of a 27-20 home defeat to Chicago. The Bears cashed outright as 10-point underdogs, even though Eddie Lacy ripped up the Chicago defense for 150 yards rushing and a touchdown. Despite the loss, Green Bay has won six of the last seven matchups against Chicago.

Betting notes: With Rodgers under center, the Packers put together a 5-2 SU/ATS record, although both losses came away from Lambeau Field. Chicago is 5-2 to the 'over' at home this season, while going 1-3 ATS at Soldier Field off a defeat.

Chiefs at Chargers (-9, 45) - 4:25 PM EST

Kansas City: 11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS
San Diego: 8-7 SU, 9-5-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Chiefs suffered another loss to an above .500 squad, falling at home to the Colts, 23-7 as 7 ½-point favorites. Kansas City scored an early touchdown, but was held to single-digits for the first time this season, while losing three straight games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chargers are making a late push to the postseason, capturing their third consecutive victory with a 26-13 triumph over the Raiders as a 10-point favorite. San Diego needs a win on Sunday plus losses by Miami and Baltimore to clinch the sixth-seed in the AFC playoffs.

Previous meeting result: San Diego came out on top in one of the most entertaining games of the season, a 41-38 victory at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 12. The Lightning Bolts cashed as 3 ½-point underdogs, the fifth win in the last six matchups with the Chiefs since 2010.

Betting notes: Kansas City will likely sit many starters since the Chiefs are already in the playoffs, but the Chiefs have won six of seven games on the highway this season (6-1 ATS). Since losing their first two divisional contests, the Chargers have won three straight games within the AFC West, while going 7-4 SU/ATS against division rivals since the start of 2012.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Most popular, least popular picks in the LVH Super Contest, where 1,034 contestants pick five games each week of the NFL season........they paid $1,500 each to be in this contest, by the way.

Most pop. (38-55-4 vs spread)
1) Packers +4.5-- 510
2) Falcons 214
3) Steelers 200
4) Eagles 190
5) Jaguars 188
6) Cowboys 187

Least popular (48-46-2)
32) Colts 26
31) Bears -4.5-- 60
30) Texans 61
29) Titans 65
28) Broncos 66
27) Buccaneers 79


*****

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday......

13) Looks like Penn State coach Bill O'Brien has emerged as the leading candidate for the Houston Texans' coaching vacancy.

12) Good offenses get first downs on 1st/2nd down; here are the teams with highest %age of first downs on 1st/2nd down:
Cowboys 79.3%, Broncos 76.9%, Cards 76.8%, Chiefs 76.1%

11) Here are the teams with lowest %age of first downs on 1st/2nd down: Titans 65.6%, Ravens 66.2%, Jets 67.1%, Panthers 68.0%

10) Bill Walton gave out his all-time SEC basketball team on the air Saturday night and didn't have anyone from Kentucky on it:

Maravich-Wilkins-Pettit-O'Neal-Barkley. Three LSU guys.

9) If you care about such things, under is 11-3-1 in first 15 bowl games.

8) Five NFL teams didn't put anyone in the Pro Bowl:
Giants-Jets-Falcons-Jaguars-Packers.

7) All three refs who worked the Louisville-Kentucky game worked at the Final Four last spring. Not a coincidence.

6) DePaul's teams are called the Blue Demons; why don't they wear blue road uniforms? Not sure why teams wear black road uniforms.

5) Why would anyone trade for Andrew Bynum? He's played in 24 of a possible 110 games since leaving the Lakers. Seems like a pain in the butt.

4) There are only three NFL games Sunday with no NFL playoff implications and two of those three, Texans-Titans/Redskins-Giants, will determine the #1 pick in the draft in May. Going to be a very interesting Sunday.

3) Rutgers has had five offensive coordinators in the last five years; their coach was so conservative Saturday, the play-by-play guy was calling him out. They fired three more assistant coaches since this season ended; you need continuity to have a good program. Rutgers doesn't have it yet.

2) Houston Rockets are 7-1 vs spread if they played the night before.

1) The Apple TV commercial where the kid films his family's Chirstmas Day might be the best TV commercial of the last twenty years.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Carolina 0 0th Atlanta +5.5 500 *****
Atlanta 0 Under 46 500

Houston 0 0th Houston +7 500
Tennessee 0 Over 44.5 500

Cleveland 0 0th Cleveland +9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Pittsburgh 0 Over 44.5 500

Washington 0 0th Washington +3.5 500
N.Y. Giants 0 Over 44 500

Baltimore 0 0th Baltimore +6.5 500
Cincinnati 0 Over 43 500

Jacksonville 0 0th Indianapolis -11 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Indianapolis 0 Under 45 500

N.Y. Jets 0 0th N.Y. Jets +7.5 500 *****
Miami 0 Over 41 500

Detroit 0 0th Minnesota -1 500
Minnesota 0 Over 51 500

Green Bay - 4:25 PM ET Chicago +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Chicago - Under 51 500

Buffalo - 4:25 PM ET Buffalo +7.5 500
New England - Over 46.5 500

Tampa Bay - 4:25 PM ET Tampa Bay +11 500 *****&
New Orleans - Over 47 500

Denver - 4:25 PM ET Denver -10 500
Oakland - Under 53.5 500

San Francisco - 4:25 PM ET San Francisco +2.5 500 *****
Arizona - Over 41 500 *****

Kansas City - 4:25 PM ET Kansas City +10.5 500
San Diego - Over 46 500

St. Louis - 4:25 PM ET St. Louis +13 500 *****
Seattle - Under 42 500

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Pod:


Philadelphia - 8:30 PM ET Philadelphia -7 500 DOUBLE POD

Dallas - Under 52 500 *****