The Bum's NFL December's POD'S-Trends-Stats !

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NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

When marquee players go down with injuries, oddsmakers notice and value is lost for bettors. The key is to find lesser-known players that could have an impact on the scoreboard. Here are four NFL injuries not to undervalue in Week 16:

Peyton Hillis, RB, New York Giants (Out, concussion)

While the Giants have been mathematically eliminated, the Lions still have a fighting chance to make the post-season. While Detroit needs tons of help, it is still necessary to win their remaining two games. Wide receiver Victor Cruz and running back Peyton Hillis have been ruled out for Sunday for injury related reasons. Offensive lineman David Diehl and wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan are questionable for Sunday. The 30th ranked scoring offense will definitely struggle scoring more than their averaged 17.9 points. The Giants play the fourth ranked rushing defense allowing an average of 98.6 yards per game. The Lions actually have something to play for and will likely show up Sunday at home.

The Giants are 9-point underdogs on the road against the Lions. The total is 49.


Chris Clemons, DE, Seattle Seahawks (Probable, elbow)

Seattle plays the top-ranked rushing defense in the Cardinals who are allowing an average of 83.2 yards per game. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in sacks with 41.0 and are ranked fifth overall with 19 interceptions. With wide receiver Percy Harvin still questionable and running back Robert Turbin questionable, the Seahawks might not put up as many points as some expect. The Cardinals saw wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and quarterback Carson Palmer returning to practice Thursday and are now listed as questionable for Sunday. With these two key players returning, the Cardinals will attempt to make the post-season and improve on their 9-5 record. The Cards may be more competitive than they are given credit for.

The Cardinals are 10.5-point underdogs on the road against Seattle, with the total 43.0.


Aaron Williams, S, Buffalo Bills (Out, ribs)

The Bills host the 8-6 Dolphins who are competing for the sixth seed in the AFC. The Bills will be without wide receiver Steve Johnson (personal reasons) and hope to have Fred Jackson healthy (probable) after nursing a rib injury. The Bills will attempt to put up points without quarterback EJ Manuel. All season, the Bills have struggled only completing 34 percent of their third-down passes ranking them fourth-worst in the NFL. On the defensive side with Aaron Williams out, the Bills will likely continue to give up big yardage plays - something they have struggled with all year. The Bills have given up 13 passes of 40 or more yards and give up the most rushes of 20 or more yards.

The Bills are 2.5-point home favorite against Miami. The total is 42.5.


Maurice Jones Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (Questionable, hamstring)

While the word "playoffs" and "Jaguars" never go in the same sentence, the Jaguars did put up four wins this season which is better than most predicted. The Jags are running out of healthy offensive players with running back Maurice Jones-Drew questionable, tight end Marcedes Lewis questionable, WR Cecil Shorts on IR, guard Will Rackley on IR and their backup guard Austin Pasztor also questionable Sunday. The Jaguars are ranked dead-last in the league in points scored (15.8) and are 30th or worse in total yards and rushing yards. The Jaguars have only completed 32 percent of their third-down conversion attempts. The Titans travel to Jacksonville looking for their first division win of the year and revenge over their 29-27 loss to the Jaguars earlier in 2013.

The Titans are 5-point favorites on the road against Jacksonville. The total is 44.

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NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5, 40.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 54 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 12 mph.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 12 mph. There is a small 10 percent chance of rain.

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5, 47.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 14 mph. There is a 54 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5, 44)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 14 mph.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 42.5)
Forecasts are calling for rain with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-50s.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)
There is an 81 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-70s.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 53.5)
There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 43)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 10 mph.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 50.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 4 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 45)
The forecast is calling for snow in Green Bay with temperatures in the low-20s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 12 mph.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 45)
There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the high-60s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)
There is a 53 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low-60s. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 8 mph.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 16 betting road map: Three pitfalls to avoid Sunday

The final weeks of the NFL season are some of the hardest to handicap. From bad weather, tanking teams, possible spoilers, and franchises fighting for the playoffs, there are plenty of traps along the way for bettors in late December. However if you can find the right angle, there is more than enough value to go around.

Here’s a NFL Week 16 road map, plotting a course through those pitfalls Sunday.

Tanking team

Jacksonville is in the midst of a race with the St. Louis Rams (who have Washington's pick) and the Oakland Raiders for a Top-3 pick in the NFL draft. With both the Raiders and the Jaguars sitting at 4-10, both teams can't really afford to win another game, especially Jacksonville.

The team has problems filling the stadium thanks to a string of losing seasons in the small Florida market and desperately needs a franchise player to draw crowds. The Jaguars are 5-point home underdogs hosting Tennessee Sunday.


Playing for coach

The Raiders might be a prime tanking candidate if not for the recent rumors that respected head coach Dennis Allen is on the hot seat. With the Raiders 4-2-1 ATS away from the Oakland Coliseum and already posting an upset win over the Chargers early in the season, Oakland’s added motivation could make this a close game with their California rivals.

It’s a good value spot for the Raiders when you throw in the travelling army of Silver and Black fans that invade San Diego and rookie QB Matt McGloin trying to earn a chance in 2014 against a soft Chargers secondary.


Spoiler alert

Buffalo will be looking to upset the Miami Dolphins in a big way at Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday. The Bills can't really tank at 5-9 and are a stellar 5-1 ATS in the friendly confines of upstate New York this season.

The Bills pass rush, led by Mario Williams, should give a Dolphins team, well noted for its offensive line issues, serious troubles. Miami has been playing well and has worked its way into the playoff picture after upsetting the Patriots at home. But Buffalo is a very good home team that matches up well with the Fins.

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Essential betting tidbits for Week 16 of NFL football

- Cleveland WR Josh Gordon has 841 receiving yards and six touchdowns over his previous five games.

- Jets rookie QB Geno Smith has thrown at least one interception in 12 of 14 games this season, and has posted single digit QBR totals six times.

- Kansas City is the first team in league history to score multiple touchdowns via interception (five), kickoff return (two), punt return (two) and fumble return (two) in the same season.

- The Indianapolis Colts are surrendering the fifth-highest average rushing yardage per game (128.9). Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles averages 156.5 yards in two career games against the Colts.

- The Bengals, in the hunt for home-field advantage in the playoffs, are 6-0 in Cincinnati this season while outscoring opponents 199-103 in those games.

- Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, ranked second in the NFL with 1,221 rushing yards, is expected to play Sunday after missing last week's game with a foot injury.

- Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning gets a reprieve from the cold in Houston this week after playing his previous four games in chilly weather. Manning has thrown for 3,561 yards with 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 10 games where the temperature at kickoff was above 41 degrees Fahrenheit.

- The Broncos (-10) are the top Covers consensus ATS pick against Houston (78.5 percent).

- Playing for injured RB Maurice Jones-Drew last week, Jordan Todman rumbled for 109 yards and added four catches for 44 yards in a loss to Buffalo. Todman may start again this week with Jones-Drew questionable.

- Tennessee has lost all four of its divisional games so far in 2013, though none of the defeats came by more than eight points.

- Expect a low-scoring game in Buffalo, where the Bills host a Miami Dolphins squad that has played the "under" in eight of its last nine encounters with AFC East opponents.

- Buffalo comes into Sunday's game needing one sack to equal the unofficial franchise record of 50 set by the 1964 edition. It's a good bet to happen against a Dolphins team that has allowed the most sacks in the NFL (51).

- The Carolina Panthers had no answer for the New Orleans Saints in their last encounter, allowing quarterback Drew Brees to rack up 313 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-13 victory.

- The Panthers are tied for second in the NFC in turnover differential (plus-11), and are the only team in the NFL to rank in the top five in both passing yards allowed (211.4 per game) and rushing yards against (84.9).

- Washington QB Kirk Cousins makes his third career NFL start against a Cowboys secondary allowing the most passing yards in the league (4,163).

- Dallas has won all four of its divisional games, including a 31-16 home triumph over the Redskins in Week 6.

- The St. Louis Rams are the lone NFC West lightweight when it comes to ATS play, going 6-8 so far. The Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals are all 10-4 ATS through the first 14 weeks.

- The Tampa Bay defense has shown a proficiency when it comes to buckling down after a rough loss, with the "under" going 5-0 in the Buccaneers' last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Tampa Bay fell 33-14 to visiting San Francisco last week.

- The Seahawks have been nearly invincible at home this season, winning all six games by an average of 18.7 points. Their 14-game home winning streak is the longest in franchise history.

- Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald (concussion) is expected to play Sunday after practicing throughout the week. Fitzgerald was nullified in the last meeting between the teams, finishing with two catches for 17 yards in a 34-22 loss.

- Lions QB Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily over his last two games, throwing for just 386 combined yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Stafford has never faced the Giants.

- New York is 5-9-0 ATS on the season, tied with Atlanta for the third-worst mark in the NFC. Only Washington (4-10-0) and Chicago (4-9-1) have been worse.

- Oakland's improving offense and deteriorating defense have made the "over" a strong play since the midway point of the season, going 6-0-1 in the Raiders' last seven games. The over/under for Sunday's game in San Diego is 50 1/2.

- Philip Rivers had his way with the Raiders' pass defence in their previous encounter - erupting for 411 yards and a pair of scores - but also had three interceptions in the 27-17 Oakland victory.

- The Steelers have been one of the hottest ATS plays since early-November, going 5-1-0 over that stretch. Pittsburgh is a 2 1/2-point underdog at Green Bay despite the Packers being without QB Aaron Rodgers (collarbone).

- Green Bay has struggled ATS, going 1-6-0 in its last seven contests. That includes an 0-4 stretch ATS in its previous four home games.

- Patriots QB Tom Brady has put a difficult start to the season behind him, averaging better than 370 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions over his last six games.

- The Ravens are last in the NFL at just three yards per rush attempt and have scored only six touchdowns on the ground. The Patriots are surrendering 4.4 yards per carry, the eighth-highest mark in the league.

- The Philadelphia pass defense is 31st in yards allowed, while the Bears' Brandon Marshall and Alston Jeffery are the most prolific receiving duo in the league with a total of 2,450 yards.

- Eagles QB Nick Foles passed for a career-high 428 yards last week, and has 23 touchdown passes against just two interceptions.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 16 action report: Public all over Carolina

Another NFL season is coming down to the wire for and while there is much on the line for many teams trying to capture division titles and playoff berths, others are playing just for pride.

We talk to an oddsmaker from BetDSI, about the biggest line moves in Week 16 and where those odds could end up come kickoff on Sunday.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers - Open: -3, Move: N/A

The winner of this game will control their own destiny when it comes to claiming the NFC South division crown. With the Saints stumbling in St. Louis and the Panthers taking care of business last week, the public has sided with Carolina.

"This is the highest volume game of the week for sure, with close to zero action on New Orleans," an oddsmaker from BetDSI tells Covers. "Bet count and money wagered are both pushing three-to-one in favor of the Panthers and there is no sharp opinion on the game at all to this point. The only New Orleans wagers hitting the board are in the form of teaser plays."


Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: -6.5, Move: -7

This game could go a long way in determining seeding in the AFC playoffs. The Colts, who were giant killers early in the season need to improve quickly if they hope to be anymore than one-and-done in the postseason. While the Chiefs are still clinging to hope they can snatch the NFC West back from Denver. Despite all this, the action on this game is based purely on the line.

"This matchup is simply about the number," BetDSI told Covers. "When the line bounces to -6.5, the money flows to the Chiefs. When the number jumps to -7, money flows to the Colts."


Arizona Cardinal at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -10.5, Move: -10

The ultra-surprising nine-win Arizona Cardinals wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but even more impressive is their 10-4 ATS mark. Sunday they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks and the 12th Man where they opened as double-digit dogs.

"The number has been to 10.5 all the way down to 9," BetDSI said. "There was sharp money backing the Cardinals at the 10.5 number. That is keeping us at the 10 value right now, taking public teaser action into consideration as well."

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami -1 500 *****
Buffalo - Under 42 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Carolina - Under 44.5 500

Dallas - 1:00 PM ET Washington +3 500
Washington - Over 51.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +3.5 500
St. Louis - Over 43 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -2 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 41.5 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City -7.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Kansas City - Under 47 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +7.5 500 *****
Cincinnati - Over 47.5 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver -10 500
Houston - Over 53 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +4 500
Jacksonville - Over 44 500 *****

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Afternoon Games:



Arizona - 4:05 PM ET Arizona +10 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Seattle - Under 43 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:05 PM ET N.Y. Giants +8 500
Detroit - Over 48 500

Oakland - 4:25 PM ET Oakland +10 500 *****
San Diego - Over 51 500 *****

Pittsburgh - 4:25 PM ET Green Bay -1 500
Green Bay - Over 44 500 *****

New England - 4:25 PM ET Baltimore -1 500 *****
Baltimore - Under 45.5 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night POD:


Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Philadelphia -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Philadelphia - Under 55 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Bears at Eagles

December 20, 2013


CHICAGO BEARS (8-6 SU, 4-8-2 ATS) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Line, Total: Philadelphia -3 & 56.5
Opening Line & Total: Eagles -4 & 56

Both the Eagles and Bears will be playing for a much-needed victory when the two division leaders meet at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday night.

Chicago got starting QB Jay Cutler back last week and was able to defeat Cleveland 38-31 while covering as one-point underdogs. This keeps the club one-half game ahead of the 7-6-1 Packers.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, lost 48-30 in Minnesota, which put an end to its five-game winning streak, but still kept them one game ahead of the Cowboys who blew a 23-point halftime lead in a loss to Green Bay.

The last time these two teams met in 2011, the Bears defeated the Eagles 30-24 as 8-point underdogs in Philadelphia. This series has been close since 1992 with Philadelphia holding a 7-6 SU advantage, but Chicago holding the 8-5 ATS edge. This includes a 4-1 ATS mark (3-2 SU) on the road.

Both teams have a slew of negative betting trends for this matchup. While the Bears are 0-7 ATS off a non-conference game over the past two seasons, the Eagles are just 2-12 ATS at home during this same timeframe.

The two teams are relatively injury-free, with the biggest potential absences both being on defense with Chicago LB Lance Briggs (shoulder) and Philadelphia S Kurt Coleman (hamstring) both considered questionable for this game.

Chicago QB Jay Cutler was a little rusty in his return from an ankle injury on Sunday, but he got the job done in the fourth quarter to lead his team to a 38-31 victory. Cutler overcame two first-half interceptions (one returned for a touchdown) and finished 22-of-31 (71%) for 265 yards (8.6 YPA) and three touchdowns.

The Bears rank second in the NFL in scoring at 29.0 PPG and have averaged 275.8 YPG through the air (5th in NFL), but have struggled mightily on defense due to their inability to stop the run. They are allowing 152.4 YPG on the ground on 5.2 yards per carry, both which rank last in the league. Chicago must shore up some of these issues if it is going to be able to contain the Eagles excellent running game propelled by LeSean McCoy.

However, as long as the Bears' receivers are healthy, this offense will be tough to keep up with in terms of scoring points. Alshon Jeffery has 80 receptions for 1,265 yards and seven touchdowns this season, and across the field is Brandon Marshall who has 90 catches for 1,185 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Chicago also has a solid ground game with 117.6 rushing YPG (13th in NFL) on 4.6 YPC (8th in league) thanks in large part to RB Matt Forte (1,200 rush yards, 4.7 YPC, 9 total TD). He has 72% of his team's rushing attempts this season, averaging 18.4 carries per game.

Although the Eagles were blown out in Minnesota by 18 points, QB Nick Foles was very effective in the game, throwing for 428 yards, three touchdowns and just one interception, increasing his gaudy season numbers to 23 TD and just 2 INT.

The Philly defense just couldn’t get stops when it needed to, which is a common theme this season, especially through the air where the club allows 292 passing YPG (2nd-worst in NFL). The team allowed Vikings backup QB Matt Cassel to throw for 382 yards and two touchdowns in the game.

Although Eagles top WR DeSean Jackson had a great game with 10 catches for 195 yards and a touchdown, the Eagles were too quick to give up on their ground game that leads the NFL in both rushing yards (152.9 YPG) and yards per carry (5.0 YPC).

They’ll need to slow the game down and get RB LeSean McCoy (8 TD), who leads the NFL with 1,343 rushing yards, more involved against a Bears defense that can’t stop the run. McCoy rushed just eight times for 38 yards against the Vikings, but if the Eagles can figure out a way to get him 20 or more touches against Chicago, then they should be in very good shape.

[StarDust Bum]

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)

Chicago would like to keep some distance between itself and the Packers, who visit the Bears in the regular-season finale. The offense is humming right along no matter who is under center but the defense is an issue, surrendering an average of 31 points over the last four games and ranking last in the NFL against the run. Chicago RB Matt Forte has gone over 100 yards rushing in three straight games.

Philadelphia will be scoreboard-watching early in the day, needing a loss by the Cowboys to make a win over the Bears a division-clincher. The Eagles will also be looking for more out of a pass defense that is ranked 31st in the league. Eagles QB Nick Foles passed for a career-high 428 yards last week but has thrown an interception in each of the last two games after going his first seven starts without a pick.

LINE: Philadelphia opened as a 3.5-point fave, but has been bet down to -3. The total is up one point to 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 53 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + Philadelphia (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -3.5
TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 December games.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Over is 17-4 in Chicago's last 21 games following a SU win.

[StarDust Bum]

49ers, Falcons clash on MNF

December 20, 2013


Atlanta Falcons (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Line, Total: San Francisco -12, 45

Two teams heading in completely opposite directions clash Monday night when the Falcons visit the 49ers. While Atlanta has won-and-covered the same game just three times all season, San Francisco won its fourth straight game (3-1 ATS) last week with a 33-14 blowout victory in Tampa Bay.

These teams last met in the NFC Championship last season where the 49ers erased an early 17-0 deficit and finished the game on a 28-7 run to win 28-24 and advance to the Super Bowl. That comeback victory snapped the Falcons' four-game win streak in this series, but since 1992, the Niners hold a 16-10 advantage (SU and ATS) in this series, including a 10-2 SU mark (8-4 ATS) at home where the Over has gone 8-4. Atlanta is 13-3 ATS (81%) in road games after allowing 450+ total yards in its previous game since 1992, but San Francisco is 28-9 ATS (76%) when playing on Monday night in that same timeframe.

In terms of injuries, the Falcons could be weakened on defense with both LB Sean Weatherspoon (knee) and S Thomas DeCoud (head) 'questionable' for this game, while the 49ers could be missing some offensive depth with FB Bruce Miller (arm, IR) out and TE Vance McDonald (ankle) and WRs Quinton Patton (foot) and Jon Baldwin (calf) all 'questionable' for Monday.

The Falcons are having a miserable season, but are still playing hard with a 3-1 ATS mark in their past four games. Last Sunday they defeated the Redskins 27-26 behind two touchdowns on the ground from RB Steven Jackson.

QB Matt Ryan threw for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while TE Tony Gonzalez was his top target with six catches for 62 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta’s passing offense has held up rather well throughout injuries this season, as Ryan has thrown for 277.6 yards per game (7h in NFL) with 22 TD and 13 INT. This has made up for a horrendous ground game that ranks last in the NFL with 79.3 rushing YPG.

Another big problem for Atlanta has been its struggles on the defensive end, with the team allowing 386.3 total YPG (29th in NFL), broken down into 131.4 yards per game on the ground (29th in NFL) and 254.9 yards per game through the air (25th in NFL). The Falcons were bailed out last week with some big plays though, forcing seven Redskins turnovers which is the same amount of takeaways they had amassed in the previous seven games combined. They will need to force some more miscues from Colin Kaepernick and San Francisco’s versatile offensive attack.

San Francisco has outscored opponents 102 to 50 during its four-game win streak with its defense allowing just 237.3 total YPG during this win surge. For the season, the Niners have allowed just 16.3 PPG and 299.1 total YPG, which both rank third-best in the NFL. They have done a great job in both facets, allowing only 199.7 passing YPG (4th in league) and 99.4 rushing YPG (6th in NFL), and have not allowed many long drives with a 33% third-down conversion rate.

Offensively, the 49ers rely mostly on their running game which is gaining 137.1 YPG (5th in NFL). RB Frank Gore rushed for 86 yards (3.9 YPC) of the team's 187 yards in the win over Tampa Bay last week. Gore has racked up 1,017 yards (4.2 YPC) and eight touchdowns on the season, and he scored the final two touchdowns of the NFC Championship win in Atlanta in January to cap off his day with 90 rushing yards on 4.3 YPC.

The Niners should be able to exploit the Falcons' porous defense even through the air where they have not clicked all season. They are throwing for just 179.1 yards per game (30th in NFL), but QB Colin Kaepernick (7.5 YPA, 18 TD, 8 INT) has played well during the win streak (8.1 YPA, 7 TD and 1 INT). This includes going 19-of-29 for 203 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT in last week's win over the Buccaneers.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Falcons at 49ers

December 22, 2013


The Falcons were a few plays away from winning the NFC Championship over the 49ers last season. Instead, San Francisco grabbed the road win and the NFC title, as the Niners look to beat the Falcons again on Monday night. However, Atlanta is playing the role of spoiler this time around with little to play for following a disastrous season.

Mike Smith's team is suffering through a 4-10 season and last place in the NFC South, while enduring key injuries to wide receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones fractured his foot back in a Week 5 home loss to the Jets, while White missed three games with a hamstring injury and has broken the 100-yard plateau in just one contest. The Falcons started the campaign at 2-9, but Atlanta has won two of the last three games, including an exciting home victory last Sunday.

For the first time in eight weeks, the Falcons were listed as a favorite, taking on the struggling Redskins. Atlanta held off Washington as the Redskins failed to convert the go-ahead two-point conversion in the final minute of play in a 27-26 home victory. Washington cashed as 5 ½-point underdogs, while outgaining Atlanta by 233 yards. For all the problems the Falcons have gone through this season, the non-cover actually snapped a three-game ATS win streak for Atlanta.

The 49ers are riding a four-game hot streak after going cross-country and dominating the Buccaneers, 33-14 as 4 ½-point road favorites. San Francisco has limited all four opponents during this winning stretch to 17 points or less, while Tampa Bay put up only 184 yards of offense. Colin Kaepernick tossed a pair of touchdowns, as San Francisco held onto the ball for nearly 40 minutes.

Rewinding back to the previous meeting between the 49ers and Falcons last January at the Georgia Dome, San Francisco actually entered that contest as a 3 ½-point road favorite and trailed 17-0 in the second quarter after two early touchdown passes from Matt Ryan. The Niners erased a 24-14 halftime deficit by outscoring the Falcons, 14-0 in the second half, as Frank Gore rushed for a pair of touchdowns to give San Francisco its first NFC title since 1994 in a 28-24 triumph.

After starting the season at 1-2 SU/ATS, San Francisco has rolled from a pointspread standpoint by cashing in nine of the last 11 games with the two non-covers coming to playoff squads Seattle and Carolina. Jim Harbaurgh's own a terrific 7-0 SU/ATS record against teams eliminated from postseason contention, while Green Bay may not qualify for the playoffs and the Niners beat the Packers in Week 1.

The Falcons have had their issues away from the Georgia Dome this season, losing six of seven away contests. However, following five straight ATS losses on the highway, Atlanta has covered its last two on the road against Buffalo and Green Bay. In the role of an underdog, the Falcons have limped to a 3-6 ATS record, but have covered three in a row in this situation.

Baltimore's last-minute victory at Detroit in Week 15 snapped a four-game winning and cover streak for favorites on Monday night contests. Since there is no Monday night game in Week 17, this is the final Monday nighter of the season as favorites own a 10-6 SU and 7-8-1 ATS record. Following a 5-1 run to the 'over' to start on Mondays, the 'under' has caught up the last two months with an 8-2 stretch, as 'unders' are currently 9-7 in the Monday primetime slot.

From a totals perspective, the Falcons started the season at 5-1 to the 'over,' but the 'under' is 5-3 the past eight weeks. The 49ers have trended in a similar direction with five of their first eight games sailing 'over' the total, while five of the last six have finished 'under' the total.

The Niners are listed as heavy 14-point favorites on Monday night, while the total is set at 46. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Most popular, least popular picks in the LVH Super Contest, where 1,034 contestants pick five games each week of the NFL season........they paid $1,500 each to be in this contest, by the way.

Most pop. (38-55-4 vs spread)

1) Steelers +7-- 467 - W
2) Bengals 293 - W
3) Panthers 270 - W
4) Dolphins 248 - L
5) Ravens 207 - L
6) Cardinals 174 - W

Least popular (47-45-2)

32) Packers -7-- 27 - L
T30) Titans 49 - L
T30) Dolphins 49 - L
29) Falcons 62
28) Chargers 68 - W
27) Giants 75 - W


*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday........

15) Bills 19, Dolphins 0-- Miami laid an egg with a chance to move into #6 slot in AFC; 6 first downs, outgained 390-103, 4th NFL team this year with no TDs, no FGs attempted. Fish will regret getting swept by Buffalo.

14) Panthers 17, Saints 13-- Not often an NFLteam is 0-9 on 3rd down and wins, but Carolina takes NFC South by driving 65 yards on five plays, with winning TD scored at 0:23 left. Saints are baffling with poor road play.

13) Cowboys 24, Redskins 23-- Dallas drove 87 yards in nine plays, scoring on 10-yard pass on 4th-and-goal with 1:08 left. Best part of this is that the Rams have Washington's 1st-round pick and are one Redskin loss away from getting the #2 pick in next April's draft.

12) Rams 23, Buccaneers 13-- What do you do if you own the Bucs? They start season 0-8, are 4-3 since, but 170 total yards in a 10-point loss to a 7-8 Ram team playing without its QB? How is this in any way encouraging?

11) Eagles 54, Bears 11-- So when Dallas wins, this game basically became a meaningless one for Philly, except for a chance to move up from #4 to #3 seed in NFC if they win in Dallas next week. Meanwhile, the Bears are in if they win, so yours truly goes and bets on the Bears. Not my finest moment.

10) Jets 24, Browns 13-- No way should Rex Ryan be fired; he's 7-8 with a rookie QB, 6-2 at home, and he's toned down his mouth. if they were going to fire him, should've been last year. As for the Browns, my cabbie yesterday is from Cleveland and seriously ranted about the Browns my whole ride. In fact, he may still be bitching about them-- not a happy dude.

9) Colts 23, Chiefs 7-- KC was +21 in turnovers coming in, but -4 doomed them here; teams might play again in playoffs in two weeks. After scoring 101 points the last two weeks, they laid an egg here, which helps Denver.

8) Bengals 42, Vikings 14-- Cincy is 7-0 SU/ATS at home, and AFC North champs; what does Minnesota do going forward? They're playing next couple years in a college stadium, will they anoint Cassel their #1 QB? What about paying Josh Freeman $2M to play one dreadful Monday night game?

7) Broncos 37, Texans 13-- Horrendous season for Houston has seven days left in it; if they could muster a win, my Rams could get the #1 pick. Peyton Manning is a Hall of Famer obviously, but I'm thinking he cares a little too much about individual records. Lot of 1-yard TD passes; I'm just sayin'......

6) Titans 20, Jaguars 16-- Nothing says Christmas like playing blackjack at 3am while Mariah Carey sings Christmas carols, mixed in with sounds of 20 or 30 slot machines, and people yelling at the craps table. Brings the holiday spirit out in me, ya know?

5) Cardinals 17, Seahawks 10-- We're finding out why Ben Roethlisberger likes Bruce Arians so much; excellent football coach, and Redbirds' defense is better than you think. This makes Carolina's game next week at Atlanta very meaningful for getting #1 seed; if they win, the Seahawks would have to win against the Rams for #1 seed.

4) Giants 23, Lions 20 OT-- Detroit is most gutless, self-destructive team in a while; they complain because the fans boo? Lions were -19 in turnovers in their last eight games- they threw a pick-6 with 4:57 left in this game with a 20-13 lead, then don't challenge a play in OT when they should have. There are rumors that Nick Saban could be interested in this job when it opens.

3) Chargers 26, Raiders 13-- Oakland had been 18-9 vs spread as underdog in divisional games; they were stopped on 6-yard line in last minute, as they tried for backdoor cover here. Raiders get out of salary cap hell next year- it would be unfair if they fired Dennis Allen and didn't let him coach when they are going to have a better roster next season.

2) Steelers 38, Packers 31-- Green Bay had ball on 1-yard line in last 0:30 but got a false start penalty which takes ten seconds off the clock and costs them a chance to run two more plays. I don't like watching games in snow, but being here in las Vegas, it wasn't as bad as if I was home in New York.

1) Patriots 41, Ravens 7-- My favorite new thing is TV people praising Bill Belichick for doing such a great coaching job with a limited roster. Here is a news flash; Belichick is responsible for the mediocre roster they have. Brady deserves a better supporting cast. Ravens have one TD in last two games.

[StarDust Bum]

Ok i split last nights TRIPLE PLAY.......HAD PHILLY RIGHT BUT THAT TOTAL JUST WENT OVER WITH ALL THE TURNOVERS THE BEARS MADE.....Well this is what i see this evening.........With Arizona winning at in a dominating style i can't imagine the niners thinking about next week traveling to Arizona to face the Cards in a win or go home game.......So either in a outright lost or a close win i'll take the falcons and the pts to keep it close......The Falcons would love to knock off the niners and play spoiler.......The Falcons has also played two West teams to the UNDER.......so am going to take the UNDER also.........GOOD LUCK to all.........

Niners get caught up in the type of playing in the Sticks last game.........All the pregame or halftime festivities just might keep their minds on something else then the Falcons......


MY MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR !!! + TOTAL

Monday, December 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 8:40 PM ET Atlanta +13.5 500 MONDAY NIGHT GOY

San Francisco - Under 46 500 MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR

[StarDust Bum]

Football lines that make you go hmmm...


Week 17 is that oddly shaped gift at the back of the tree that rattles like a tin can stuffed with marbles.

What the hell could it be?

NFL bettors don’t know what they’re tearing into when it comes to the regular season finale. Could it be a PS4 or an easy pointspread cover? Or is it a cheesy holiday-themed sweater or a team giving up on the year?

Needless to say, Week 17 gives us plenty to ponder with numerous head-scratching spreads to round of the schedule. Here are a few NFL lines making bettors go hmmm…

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 44.5)

This AFC North matchup holds a ton of playoff weight with the Ravens trying to get into the postseason and the Bengals attempting to improve their seeding. It opened at the always brow-furrowing 5.5-point spread and has since jumped to Bengals -6.

This number seems a little low – even with all things considered. Baltimore is on the road after getting coal stuffed in its stocking versus the Patriots in front of its home crowd while Cincinnati is playing some of its best football of the season down the stretch. The Ravens edged the Bengals in overtime back in Week 10 but Cincy is 4-1 in the five games since, with quality wins over San Diego and Indianapolis.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+13, 53.5)

The Broncos do need to win this game to keep the No. 1 seed safe and won’t rest their starters – at least not until they run up the score early and coast on a comfortable lead. This 53.5 point total could be a tall task with the Broncos playing it safe in the final 30 minutes.

With many key players limping into the playoffs and star pass rusher Von Miller out for the year, Denver will likely hit the Silver and Black with everything it has for two quarters before turning the offense over to backup QB Brock Osweiler and the running game.

Oakland is putting Terrellle Pryor back under center, which means more runs keeping the clock ticking. The Raiders were one of the top rushing teams in the league with the dual-threat breaking off gains with his legs and are 3-5 O/U with Pryor taking the snaps this season.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5, 45.5)

The Redskins have nothing left to give. Well, maybe Mike Shanahan's pink slip, but that's it. Washington played the Cowboys tough last Sunday, trying to spoil their rival’s playoff chances. And it looked like they were going to do it before Dallas scored the go-ahead TD on a fourth-down conversion in the dying minutes.

If the Redskins had any heart left, that loss ripped those leftovers out of their chests.

Enter the Giants who, after posting a goose egg through the first six games of the schedule, have been a solid 6-3 since with those losses coming to Dallas, Seattle and San Diego. New York knows how to finish strong as well, going 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine Week 17 contests.