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  • NFL line watch Week 17 betting: Jump on Giants vs. Redskins

    Spread to bet now

    Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5)

    Has there been a more bizarre NFL team in recent years than the Redskins? Washington started its season with controversy about its nickname and will likely finish it with eight straight losses. The last time the Redskins won, we were still eating Halloween candy.

    Washington lugs a 3-12 record (1-6 on the road) into New Jersey this Sunday, with Mike Shanahan coaching his final game for the team. The only thing that smells halfway decent about this one from the Skins’ perspective is the short commute. Don’t be sucked by the half a point or the Giants’ overall lousy play. New York is actually 6-3 since its nightmare 0-6 start and should cover. Jump quickly on this one.

    Spread to wait on

    Buffalo Bills (+8.5) at New England Patriots

    This one might be a game-time decision for bettors, because there are a lot of moving parts at the top of the AFC playoff picture. At 1 p.m. ET, the 10-5 Bengals play at home against Baltimore in a game Cincinnati absolutely has to win to have a shot at the No. 2 AFC seed, which comes with a home game and a bye.

    If the Bengals get it done, the 11-4 Patriots will have to hold serve in their 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff against the Bills in order to keep that No. 2 seed for themselves because Cincy won their head-to-head battle. New England also has an outside shot at the top seed in the AFC, but Denver would have to go down at Oakland. Best to see how the Bengals are doing around 3:45 p.m. ET. Then if you can, move before the numbers or vig changes on this game.

    Total to watch

    Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5)

    Have you also noticed that scores are coming down? The results, no doubt, are inflated O/U totals and the cold weather. Heading into Monday night the Under had carried in 11 of 15 games during Week 16. With depressed posted totals for Week 17 (only two games in the 50s – Detroit at Minnesota and Denver at Oakland), the pendulum appears to have swung back for the final weekend of the season.

    That has created a buying opportunity on the Browns-Steelers game. Until this past Sunday, Cleveland averaged nearly 30 points in its previous three games. The Steelers, meanwhile, have had no problem scoring points at home. With a modest 43.5 on the board, an Over play looks solid.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13:

      32) Texans-- If the Texans/Giants win this week, I'm pretty sure the Rams get the first pick in the draft next April-- tremendous!!!!

      31) Redskins-- If they had their own first round pick in April, teams would be accusing them of tanking games, thats how pathetic they've been late in these last few games. If Snyder gives Mike Shanahan the ultimatum of "fire your son or else", Shanahan has to refuse, right?

      30) Lions-- "Coach Saban, Mr Ford is on Line 1." Detroit will be a popular job to apply for; lot of talent. Good to follow an underachieving coach.

      29) Browns-- In 15 years, they've been 1-0 once. Once.

      28) Raiders-- Not really sure what they're trying to do; would love to know the back story of why they're apparently not happy with Terrelle Pryor.

      8) Colts-- Credit to Jim Irsay for building a franchise that has thrived after Peyton Manning moved on; no one thought that was happening.

      T6) Bengals/Saints-- Both are great at home, not so much on road.

      5) 49ers-- They're really good when Kaepernick runs, but if he ever got hurt, say goodnight; Colt McCoy is the backup. Oy.

      4) Patriots-- If Belichick quits when Brady does he should be banned from the Hall of Fame for ten years, just for being a cheating weasel.

      3) Broncos-- Von Miller's season-ending injury is a huge blow to defense.

      2) Seahawks-- If they can't run ball, can Wilson win a game with his arm?

      1) Panthers-- Tesams with great defense can win one road playoff game.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • Inside the Stats

        December 25, 2013


        A Merry Christmas to you and yours.

        Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

        At The Wire

        As we detailed in this space the last two weeks, the final four weeks of the NFL season is a race to the wire for teams in the playoff chase. It’s also time teams out of contention put things on cruise control and start preparing for next season instead.

        According to our database some coaches shine while others wine during the final four games down the stretch.

        From an ATS standpoint, listed below are coaches in their BEST and WORST roles throughout their NFL career and the situational role in which appear this week. Remember, the coaches listed in this spot last week combined to ring the register with a 6-1 ATS overall performance.

        All results are ATS (Against The Spread).

        Best Roles

        John Fox, Denver: 7-1 as a favorite of more than 9 points
        Mike McCarthy, Green Bay: 8-1 as an underdog
        Joe Philbin, Miami: 3-0 at home
        Ron Rivera, Carolina: 4-0-1 as a favorite

        Worst Roles

        Dennis Allen, Oakland: 0-4 off a double-digit loss
        Jason Garrett, Dallas: 1-7 vs. division opponents
        Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco: 0-6 vs. division foes
        Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati: 4-10 after score 24 more points
        Mike Munchak, Tennessee: 0-3 off a win

        Vinegar And Oil

        This week’s NFL ‘leaking oil’ favorites, those who have been out yarded in each of their last three games, are the Miami Dolphins and the New York Giants. Both teams will be laying points in to avenging division rivals.

        While these ‘play against’ favorites started out as a house afire to being the season they quickly returned to the norm and have settled into a 50% proposition on the season.

        Put A Pin In It

        Off the highest scoring week in NFL history two weeks ago, last week was the lowest scoring week of the season with 69% of the games going UNDER the total.

        The net result was a 5-11 UNDER week for total in the NFL.

        For the season its been 126 OVERS and 110 UNDERS, with non-conference games leading the OVER charge, going 2-0 OVER last week, to close out the season at 47-15 (76%)!

        With the final week of the campaign filled with all division matchups you’ll have to wait for the Super Bowl for the next non-conference OVER play.

        Coaches Corner

        If you missed our report last week, here is a list of college football coaches and their career tendencies in Pre-New Year's Day games.

        Good Coaches

        Bronco Mendenhall, BYU: 15-6 ATS as a dog vs. < 1.000 opponent
        Al Golden, Miami Fl.: 0-4 SUATS vs. 900 > foe off a SUATS win
        Brady Hoke, Michigan: 15-3 ATS off a loss if team .500 or greater
        Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss: 9-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
        Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech: 17-1 ATS dog vs. an opp off a loss
        Jim Mora, UCLA: 6-1 SUATS off a win vs. opponent off a win of 3 >
        David Bailiff, Rice: 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS with rest
        David Cutcliffe, Duke: 3-1 SU/ATS as a bowl dog

        Bad Coaches

        Mike Riley, Oregon State: 8-1 ATS away off BB losses (WIN-Hawaii Bowl)
        Rich Rodriguez, Arizona: 1-5 ATS in all bowl games
        Dan Mullen, Mississippi State: 8-18 ATS vs. .750 > opponents

        Stat Of The Week

        Notre Dame is 0-10 SUATS in bowl games versus an opponent off a win.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind.........

          13) We noted yesterday how Jon Kitna is making around $55,000 for his one week with the Cowboys; he is donating that money to the school district where is an Algebra teacher- that’s really generous.

          I wonder if he makes $55,000 a year teaching school.

          12) Aaron Rodgers is a go for Sunday in Chicago; 11-point difference in Packer spreads with/without Rodgers is the biggest right now for any NFL player. Packers opened as a 3-point road favorite, so they would've been an 8.5-point underdog without Rodgers starting.

          Question is, how well can Rodgers play? He's missed last seven games

          11) You look at Kyle Orton and see a player with a 35-34 career W-L record in NFL; not bad. Dallas won’t be impotent Sunday, though its been a while since Orton started and played a whole game, but its not like he’s Seneca Wallace or Curtis Painter.

          10) You want to know why 70% of NBA players are broke within five years of retiring? Dwight Howard bought all his teammates Rolex watches for Christmas. Real ones.

          9) If you're interested in such things, over is 23-7 in Detroit Piston games, 12-4 at home, 11-3 on road.

          8) Pitt 30, Bowling Green 27-- Freshman James Conner ran the ball for 229 yards and also played some on defensive line, as Pitt survived loss of senior QB Tom Savage in second quarter. Not often an ACC team is underdog to a MAC team in a bowl game.

          7) Utah State 21, Northern Illinois 14-- State RB Joey DeMartino ran ball for 143 yards and a TD in his hometown, as Huskies ended season with two straight losses after almost making it to a BCS bowl. Tough end to a terrific career for NIU QB Jordan Lynch, who only ran ball for 39 yards.

          6) Odd thing is that the Steelers are 7-8, Arizona 10-5, and Pitt probably has a better chance of making the playoffs, since Cardinals need New Orleans to lose at home to the Bucs, which probably ain’t happening.

          5) Quote of the Day, part 2, from Mark Cuban:

          "I think Jerry would be crazy to fire Jason Garrett. Not that he would, but the hardest thing to do -- and I’ve said this before -- is hire a head coach. That’s the hardest thing to do in professional sports, in my opinion."

          4) Hawks 127, Cavaliers 125, 2ot-- Atlanta is 3rd-best team in East; Jeff Teague hit buzzer beater for the win, offsetting 40 points from Kyrie Irving. Hawks lost Al Horford and Demarre Carroll to injuries

          3) Trailblazers 116, Clippers 112 ot-- LaMarcus Aldridge scored 32 points three days after he had his wisdom teeth removed; this was an excellent game.
          Chris Paul had 34 points, 16 assists for the Clippers, who lost second tough road game in 28 hours.

          2) Michigan will start freshman QB Shane Morris in its bowl game Saturday, with starting QB Devin Gardner sidelined by turf toe.

          1) Shouldn’t Texans’ owner Bob McNair order his coach to lose this week’s game, to ensure Houston gets the #1 pick in the draft? Maybe he thinks the way they’ve played this year, they’ll lose without being told to, but that #1 pick would be a huge trade chip that could improve a team in a hurry, if it could net multiple picks in a trade.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • NFL Week 17 road map: Games that matter

            As the NFL reaches the final week of the regular season, more than half the teams in the league still have something to play for.

            Whether it's a playoff spot, a first-round bye or home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, teams have a variety of motivations entering Week 17. Some control their own fate, while others need a little - or a lot - of help to realize their postseason dreams.

            Here's a look at the games that matter as the season winds down Sunday:

            Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 44.5)

            The Bengals have already clinched the AFC North title, but have a first-round bye in their sights. To land one, they'll need a home victory against the Ravens, combined with a New England Patriots loss in their season finale against Buffalo. The Ravens face a more harrowing path to the playoffs; they need either a win combined with a San Diego or Miami loss, or defeats by the Chargers, Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers if they fall in Cincinnati.


            Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+6, 45)

            The Panthers face a wide range of outcomes. A victory or a New Orleans loss against Tampa Bay would secure the NFC South championship. Carolina also has an outside shot at the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl, but would need a win over the visiting Falcons combined with losses by the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.


            New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 41)

            Miami doesn't control its destiny in its season finale. The Dolphins need to beat the Jets at home, but can't reach the playoffs unless they also get a Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, or a San Diego victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Miami may benefit from playing a Jets team with nothing on the line, which may prompt them to give some second and third-stringers an audition.


            Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)

            The Steelers have the longest odds of any team still alive in the playoff hunt. Pittsburgh faces a must-win scenario at home against Cleveland, but that's only the beginning, it also needs Miami, Baltimore and San Diego to all lose. That would leave all four teams in a tie at 8-8, with Pittsburgh owning the tiebreaker in that scenario based on 4-2 NFC North record and the best conference record (6-6) of the remaining teams.


            Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5, 45.5)

            Indianapolis has already secured the AFC South championship, but has a first-round bye in its sights. The Colts can secure the extra week of rest with a home victory over Jacksonville and a loss by both New England and Cincinnati. Indianapolis has the benefit of facing a Jaguars team with nothing to play for, a threadbare receiving corps and an expected time split between running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Jordan Todman.


            Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-8, 47)

            With the AFC East division already wrapped up, the Patriots find themselves in a great spot to improve their position entering the postseason. The Patriots will lock up a first-round by with a victory over the Bills; even if they lose, they'll get an extra week off if Cincinnati and Indianapolis both lose. New England also has a shot at the top seed in the conference, but will need a win combined with a Denver loss.


            Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+11.5, 53.5)

            Led by one of the most historically proficient offenses in NFL history, the Broncos are in position to enjoy a home-field edge throughout the AFC playoffs. If Denver earns a victory or tie in Oakland, or if New England loses to or ties Buffalo, Denver will have the top seed in the conference. Expect Peyton Manning and Co. to pile up the points against a Raiders defense that ranks among the worst in the league.


            St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11, 43)

            The Seahawks find themselves in a similar situation as the Broncos. Seattle can clinch the NFC West and home-field advantage throughout the postseason with a home victory in its season finale against division rival St. Louis. The Seahawks will also earn the No. 1 seed if San Francisco drops its last game in Arizona. Seattle fell 17-10 to the Cardinals on Sunday for its first home loss in 15 games.


            Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (OFF)

            The NFC North Division title is at stake when the Packers visit the Bears at Soldier Field. Chicago holds a half-game lead over Green Bay, and can secure the division championship with either a win or a tie versus the Packers. Green Bay will have their MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers back under center for the first time since Nov. 4 when he broke his collarbone.


            San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Pick'em, 42)

            Last week's home loss by the Seahawks opened the door for San Francisco to seize the division title. But it will need to dispatch the tricky Cardinals and hope Seattle loses at home to St. Louis. San Francisco can add home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to its resume with a victory, a Seattle loss and a Carolina loss. Arizona advances with a win or tie and a New Orleans loss - a result the Cardinals will already know come game time.


            Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.4, 45)

            The Chargers have the most interesting afternoon ahead of them, as they'll already have a good idea of their playoff future going into the game against the visiting Chiefs. San Diego can only earn an AFC wild-card berth if both Miami and Baltimore lose their early games and the Chargers go on to beat a Kansas City club that has already clinched the No. 5 seed and will be resting its starters.


            Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+6.5, 52.5)

            The final game of the NFL's regular season will decide who emerges from the mediocre NFC East. The Eagles own a slight edge over the host Cowboys, meaning they can clinch the division championship with a win or tie. Dallas needs to win outright - and faces an uphill battle a quarterback Tony Romo deals with a back injury. Neither team is eligible for a first-round bye.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • Sharp Moves - Week 17

              December 26, 2013


              We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 17!

              All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning.

              (Rotation #330) San Diego -9 ½ - It's a tough game to bet, because it legitimately might not mean a thing to either of these teams. We have yet to hear from Head Coach Andy Reid as to whether or not his full side will be playing on Sunday or not, but regardless, the Bolts are the rightfully favored side. The Chargers know that losses by both Miami and Baltimore would setup a position where it's win and in, lose and out. Otherwise, this game will just be for the pride of beating a playoff team and finishing above .500. The Chiefs have squat to play for and will end up being the #5 seed regardless.

              Opening Line: San Diego -9 ½
              Current Line: San Diego -9 ½
              Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Kansas City

              (Rotation #307) Cleveland +7 - It's tough to believe that the Browns are the sharp team in this game, but here in this situation where the Steelers need a win and a whole heck of a lot of help just to keep their season alive, bettors are going with the public team. Sure, it definitely looks as though Cleveland has given up on the season, but the Steelers flat out just aren't all that good. They had to struggle to take care of the Packers last week on the road, and though Green Bay might very well end up being a playoff team as well, it certainly isn't one of the best 12 sides in the NFL with QB Matt Flynn calling the shots.

              Opening Line: Cleveland +7
              Current Line: Cleveland +7
              Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Pittsburgh

              (Rotation #107) Jacksonville +11 ½ - The Jaguars know that they have had nothing to play for in quite some time, but they have really been a much better team in the second half of the season than they were in the first half. Indianapolis probably has very little to play for, and though we don't expect that it is going to give up in this game, we wouldn't be surprised if the actual motivation on the field might not be quite as high as it will be next week in the opening round of the playoffs. The Jags were crippled the first time around when these teams met, but that was back in September. The Colts don't have nearly as much to play for barring miracles in the form of losses by New England and Cincinnati this week.

              Opening Line: Jacksonville +13
              Current Line: Jacksonville +11 ½
              Public Betting Percentage: 58% on Indianapolis
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • NFL Opening Line Report: Parity makes Week 17 worth it

                Week 17 of the NFL season is usually a mess.

                You have a handful of games with playoff implications while the majority of the card is loaded with teams just finishing up a lost season or resting their stars before the postseason.

                But, thanks to the vast amount of parity in the NFL this season, Week 17 is no longer the most feared week for books and bettors. It could just be one of the best weeks ever.

                “When you have incentive, the line is easier to make,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “All those rankings and stats we look at make sense. You’re not wondering about who is playing hard or protecting their assets.”

                All but a few of the Week 17 games have some sort of say in how the playoff picture is painted, including two divisional matchups that hold a golden ticket to the tournament for whichever team wins Sunday.

                The NFC East title is on the line when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the Dallas Cowboys. Korner says his team of oddsmakers had the Cowboys as the early favorites before the Eagles thumped the Bears on Sunday night. Now, this game is being dealt with Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite. Despite Dallas’ tendency to tank in these must-win games, the line is based strictly on current form.

                “We’re factoring in what just happened,” says Korner. “Dallas squeaked one out and the Eagles were on national TV romping. I think Philly as a small favorite is the way to go.”

                As for the NFC North, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers duke it out for the division. Korner sent out a suggested line of Chicago -5 with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers out.

                If Rodgers does return for the first time since breaking his collarbone in Week 9, this line will rise – but maybe not as much as bettors would think. Most weeks, Rodgers would be worth at least a touchdown. But at less than 100 percent, Rodgers impact on the spread declines.

                “I don’t know if the bettors will let us have too big of a jump,” Korner says. “I don’t think (Rodgers) is worth as much in a one-game situation where it could disrupt the flow that (backup QB Matt) Flynn may have. And he’s not healthy. If he would be a 100 percent Sunday, he would have been 100 percent this past game when they really needed him.”

                Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-13, 47)

                The Saints need to win in order to punch their passport to the playoffs. New Orleans hasn’t looked like a Super Bowl contender in recent weeks but comes back to the Superdome, where its offense is averaging 32.9 points compared to 17.8 points on the road.

                “We sent out 13.5 on this,” says Korner. “This is a game New Orleans is going to want to get out to a big lead and just cost from there. I think that the way bettors see this, the Saints need the win and they’re going to draw the money. And we don’t want to be cheap on any team that needs the win.”

                Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 44.5)

                Both teams need to win Sunday. Cincinnati already has the AFC North locked up but can vastly improve its playoff seeding with a victory and some outside help. Baltimore is scratching and clawing for a AFC Wild Card spot after an embarrassing loss to New England Sunday.

                “We sent out this at Bengals -7.5. The -5.5 is way too low,” says Korner. “Cincinnati isn’t relaxing. It may be more important for them to win and improve their playoff rankings. I know Baltimore needs to win but coming off a horrible loss and being on the road – I just don’t think they show up as much as Cincinnati will.”
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • NFL line watch Week 17 betting: Jump on Giants vs. Redskins

                  Spread to bet now

                  Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5)

                  Has there been a more bizarre NFL team in recent years than the Redskins? Washington started its season with controversy about its nickname and will likely finish it with eight straight losses. The last time the Redskins won, we were still eating Halloween candy.

                  Washington lugs a 3-12 record (1-6 on the road) into New Jersey this Sunday, with Mike Shanahan coaching his final game for the team. The only thing that smells halfway decent about this one from the Skins’ perspective is the short commute. Don’t be sucked by the half a point or the Giants’ overall lousy play. New York is actually 6-3 since its nightmare 0-6 start and should cover. Jump quickly on this one.


                  Spread to wait on

                  Buffalo Bills (+8.5) at New England Patriots

                  This one might be a game-time decision for bettors, because there are a lot of moving parts at the top of the AFC playoff picture. At 1 p.m. ET, the 10-5 Bengals play at home against Baltimore in a game Cincinnati absolutely has to win to have a shot at the No. 2 AFC seed, which comes with a home game and a bye.

                  If the Bengals get it done, the 11-4 Patriots will have to hold serve in their 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff against the Bills in order to keep that No. 2 seed for themselves because Cincy won their head-to-head battle. New England also has an outside shot at the top seed in the AFC, but Denver would have to go down at Oakland. Best to see how the Bengals are doing around 3:45 p.m. ET. Then if you can, move before the numbers or vig changes on this game.


                  Total to watch

                  Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5)

                  Have you also noticed that scores are coming down? The results, no doubt, are inflated O/U totals and the cold weather. Heading into Monday night the Under had carried in 11 of 15 games during Week 16. With depressed posted totals for Week 17 (only two games in the 50s – Detroit at Minnesota and Denver at Oakland), the pendulum appears to have swung back for the final weekend of the season.

                  That has created a buying opportunity on the Browns-Steelers game. Until this past Sunday, Cleveland averaged nearly 30 points in its previous three games. The Steelers, meanwhile, have had no problem scoring points at home. With a modest 43.5 on the board, an Over play looks solid.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

                    Sports betting doesn’t take a break over the holiday and action has been steadily impacting the odds for Week 17 of the NFL season.

                    Here’s a look at the biggest adjustments on the board heading into the regular season finale Sunday.

                    Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – Open: +7.5, Move: +6

                    The Panthers have punched their postseason ticket and can become the NFC’s top seed with some help in Week 17. However, the Falcons are fighting to the finish and some books have trimmed this spread below the key number at some books.

                    "Sharp money took the points with the Falcons. We went to -7 and haven’t moved off that number," says Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag. "We’ve seen most of the recreational bettors bet the road favorite, which is to be expected. So far, we’ve booked this game dead even but we know come gametime we’re going to need the Falcons big in this one."


                    Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -13, Move: -11.5

                    The Colts have been pegged into the postseason for a while and can still earn a first-round bye with a win over Jacksonville and losses to the Patriots and Bengals. That may be a lot to ask for and Indianapolis could be scoreboard watching the Baltimore-Cincinnati game, pulling their starters if the Bengals get up on the Ravens.

                    "It will be interesting to see how the Colts plan on playing this," says Childs, who opened Colts -11 and has remained at that spread. "While they say they’re going to go for the win and play all their starters, at the end of the day the players know it’s somewhat of a worthless game for them so motivation is going to be key."


                    Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – Open: -8.5, Move: -10.5, Move: -9.5

                    The Patriots are desperate for the No. 1 seed in the AFC but will need help from Oakland to steal it away from Denver Sunday. New England head coach Bill Belichick has never been much on resting his guys and cruising into the playoffs, so expect the Pats in full force.

                    "Pats opened -10 and immediately got hit with sharp money plus the points, we went straight to -9.5 and have been dealing that number since," says Childs. "The public is hammering the favorite and at this point. I’m not sure when, but I have a feeling we’re going to have to go back to -10 to offset all the Pat’s -9.5 money we’re seeing. About 80 percent of the action is on the Pats. This might be our biggest decision of the weekend."


                    Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +1.5, Move: +7.5

                    This line jumped six points at some markets when rumors that Tony Romo would miss the game due to a back injury hit the news. However, the Cowboys are playing it very coy with Romo’s injury and haven’t ruled out their QB for Sunday night’s do-or-die divisional matchup with the Eagles. The total also moved, dropping from 56 to 52.5 points.

                    "We opened Eagles -3 and then saw the news about Tony Romo being out for this game. After closing it and discussing a new number with our oddsmakers, we reopened with the Eagles -7.5 and we got hit up hard with Eagles money," says Childs. "But as news has trickled down that Romo might be able to play and hasn’t been 'ruled out', we’re starting to see some Cowboy money come in and we’ve adjusted with the news as well, going from -7.5 to now dealing -7 on this Sunday night game."
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • NFL
                      Dunkel

                      Week 17

                      Philadelphia at Dallas
                      The Eagles look to clinch the NFC East title against a Dallas team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in Week 17 of the season. Philadelphia is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

                      SUNDAY, DECEMBER 29

                      Game 301-302: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.899; Atlanta 127.550
                      Dunkel Line: Carolina by 9 1/2; 41
                      Vegas Line: Carolina by 6; 46
                      Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-6); Under

                      Game 303-304: Green Bay at Chicago (4:25 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 128.107; Chicago 127.223
                      Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 49
                      Vegas Line: No Line
                      Dunkel Pick: N/A

                      Game 305-306: Houston at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.822; Tennessee 126.915
                      Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 48
                      Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7; 44
                      Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Over

                      Game 307-308: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.172; Pittsburgh 138.965
                      Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 16; 39
                      Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 44
                      Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7); Under

                      Game 309-310: Washington at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.239; NY Giants 125.422
                      Dunkel Line: Even; 49
                      Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 45 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Over

                      Game 311-312: Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 129.905; Cincinnati 141.329
                      Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 11 1/2; 38
                      Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 44 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-5 1/2); Under

                      Game 313-314: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.856; Indianapolis 130.289
                      Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 4 1/2; 48
                      Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 45 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11 1/2); Over

                      Game 315-316: Philadelphia at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 138.210; Dallas 128.464
                      Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 47
                      Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 52 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-6 1/2); Under

                      Game 317-318: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 124.040; Miami 139.068
                      Dunkel Line: Miami by 15; 38
                      Vegas Line: Miami by 6; 41
                      Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6); Under

                      Game 319-320: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 131.660; Minnesota 130.354
                      Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 58
                      Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 52
                      Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3); Over

                      Game 321-322: Buffalo at New England (4:05 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 123.204; New England 140.765
                      Dunkel Line: New England by 17 1/2; 44
                      Vegas Line: New England by 8 1/2; 47
                      Dunkel Pick: New England (-8 1/2); Under

                      Game 323-324: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (4:25 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.565; New Orleans 137.432
                      Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 53
                      Vegas Line: New Orleans by 13; 47
                      Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+13); Over

                      Game 325-326: Denver at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.319; Oakland 122.966
                      Dunkel Line: Denver by 18 1/2; 48
                      Vegas Line: Denver by 12; 53 1/2
                      Dunkel Pick: Denver (-12); Under

                      Game 327-328: San Francisco at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.234; Arizona 144.231
                      Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 46
                      Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 42
                      Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+1 1/2); Over

                      Game 329-330: Kansas City at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 138.267; San Diego 138.017
                      Dunkel Line: Even; 49
                      Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 45
                      Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+10); Over

                      Game 331-332: St. Louis at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 131.754; Seattle 146.570
                      Dunkel Line: Seattle by 15; 38
                      Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 43
                      Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Under
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • NFL
                        Long Sheet

                        Week 17

                        Sunday, December 29

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                        CAROLINA (11 - 4) at ATLANTA (4 - 11) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        CAROLINA is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
                        CAROLINA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
                        CAROLINA is 51-26 ATS (+22.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
                        CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
                        CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
                        CAROLINA is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
                        ATLANTA is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
                        ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
                        3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        GREEN BAY (7 - 7 - 1) at CHICAGO (8 - 7) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
                        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
                        GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
                        4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        HOUSTON (2 - 13) at TENNESSEE (6 - 9) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        HOUSTON is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games this season.
                        HOUSTON is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
                        HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
                        HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
                        HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
                        TENNESSEE is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
                        TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
                        HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
                        4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        CLEVELAND (4 - 11) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 8) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        PITTSBURGH is 91-61 ATS (+23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
                        PITTSBURGH is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
                        PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
                        4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        WASHINGTON (3 - 12) at NY GIANTS (6 - 9) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        WASHINGTON is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
                        WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
                        4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        BALTIMORE (8 - 7) at CINCINNATI (10 - 5) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games this season.
                        CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
                        CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
                        CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
                        BALTIMORE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
                        CINCINNATI is 60-89 ATS (-37.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
                        BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
                        3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        JACKSONVILLE (4 - 11) at INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 5) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        JACKSONVILLE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
                        INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
                        INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
                        INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
                        INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
                        JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
                        5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        PHILADELPHIA (9 - 6) at DALLAS (8 - 7) - 12/29/2013, 8:30 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        PHILADELPHIA is 157-120 ATS (+25.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
                        PHILADELPHIA is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
                        DALLAS is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
                        DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
                        DALLAS is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
                        DALLAS is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
                        DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
                        3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        NY JETS (7 - 8) at MIAMI (8 - 7) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
                        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        MIAMI is 2-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
                        MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
                        3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        DETROIT (7 - 8) at MINNESOTA (4 - 10 - 1) - 12/29/2013, 1:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        DETROIT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
                        DETROIT is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
                        DETROIT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
                        DETROIT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
                        DETROIT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
                        MINNESOTA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
                        DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
                        4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        BUFFALO (6 - 9) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 4) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        BUFFALO is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
                        NEW ENGLAND is 158-120 ATS (+26.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
                        NEW ENGLAND is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
                        NEW ENGLAND is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
                        NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
                        4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        TAMPA BAY (4 - 11) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 5) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
                        TAMPA BAY is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
                        NEW ORLEANS is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
                        NEW ORLEANS is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
                        NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
                        NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
                        NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
                        NEW ORLEANS is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
                        TAMPA BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
                        NEW ORLEANS is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
                        NEW ORLEANS is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
                        NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
                        4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        DENVER (12 - 3) at OAKLAND (4 - 11) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        DENVER is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                        DENVER is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                        DENVER is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
                        DENVER is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
                        DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
                        DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
                        OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
                        OAKLAND is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
                        OAKLAND is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
                        OAKLAND is 26-49 ATS (-27.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
                        DENVER is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
                        2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        SAN FRANCISCO (11 - 4) at ARIZONA (10 - 5) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        SAN FRANCISCO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
                        SAN FRANCISCO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
                        SAN FRANCISCO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
                        ARIZONA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
                        SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
                        3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        KANSAS CITY (11 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (8 - 7) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        SAN DIEGO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        SAN DIEGO is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
                        SAN DIEGO is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
                        3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        ST LOUIS (7 - 8) at SEATTLE (12 - 3) - 12/29/2013, 4:25 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        ST LOUIS is 98-133 ATS (-48.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
                        ST LOUIS is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
                        SEATTLE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                        SEATTLE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                        SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
                        SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
                        SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
                        SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
                        SEATTLE is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
                        SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
                        SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
                        SEATTLE is 56-83 ATS (-35.3 Units) off a division game since 1992.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        ST LOUIS is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
                        SEATTLE is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
                        4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • NFL

                          Week 17

                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Trend Report
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          Sunday, December 29

                          1:00 PM
                          DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
                          The total has gone OVER in 17 of Detroit's last 25 games on the road
                          Detroit is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
                          Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Detroit

                          1:00 PM
                          CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
                          Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
                          Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
                          The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 18 games at home
                          Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

                          1:00 PM
                          HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
                          Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
                          Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
                          Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Houston

                          1:00 PM
                          CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
                          Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
                          Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games

                          1:00 PM
                          JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
                          Jacksonville is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Indianapolis
                          Jacksonville is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
                          Indianapolis is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
                          Indianapolis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

                          1:00 PM
                          NY JETS vs. MIAMI
                          NY Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Miami
                          Miami is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing at home against NY Jets
                          Miami is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing NY Jets

                          1:00 PM
                          WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
                          Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
                          Washington is 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
                          NY Giants are 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
                          NY Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Washington

                          1:00 PM
                          BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
                          Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
                          Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
                          Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

                          4:25 PM
                          BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
                          Buffalo is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing New England
                          Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
                          New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo

                          4:25 PM
                          KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
                          Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Diego
                          Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
                          San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games when playing at home against Kansas City

                          4:25 PM
                          SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
                          San Francisco is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
                          Arizona is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
                          Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

                          4:25 PM
                          ST. LOUIS vs. SEATTLE
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Seattle
                          St. Louis is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing Seattle
                          Seattle is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing St. Louis
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games

                          4:25 PM
                          TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
                          Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
                          New Orleans is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

                          4:25 PM
                          DENVER vs. OAKLAND
                          The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 16 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
                          Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games when playing Denver

                          4:25 PM
                          GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
                          The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games on the road
                          Green Bay is 2-5-1 SU in its last 8 games ,
                          Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games at home

                          8:30 PM
                          PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
                          Philadelphia is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 18 games
                          Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
                          The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games at home
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • NFL
                            Armadillo's Write-Up

                            Week 17

                            First Post

                            Panthers (11-4) @ Falcons (4-11)-- Carolina won NFC South with dramatic win last week, but can still get #1 seed if they win here and Rams upset Seahawks later in day. Panthers hammered Atlanta 34-10 (-7.5) in Week 9, with four takeaways (+2), 15-yard edge in field position. Carolina won four of last five road games, with last two wins by total of five points. Falcons covered last four tries as underdog, after being 1-4 in first five; underdogs covered last five Atlanta games; Falcons lost by 10 in SF Monday, is on a short week as dismal season comes to end. Carolina lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 8+ points. Home teams are 9-1 vs spread in NFC South games, 2-1 if underdogs. Six of last seven Carolina games stayed under the total; five of seven Atlanta home games went over.

                            Packers (7-7-1) @ Bears (8-7)-- Winner-take-all in NFC North; if game ends in a tie, Chicago wins division- they beat Pack 27-20 (+10.5) in Week 9, when Packers lost Rodgers for rest of season. Bears had 442 TY that night, as Pack scored only one TD on three trips to red zone, in first loss to Bears in last seven series games. Packers won last three visits here, by 7-10-8 points; series has been swept 8 of last 12 years. Chicago had chance to clinch division last week but laid egg in 54-11 loss at Philly; Bears are 5-2 at home, with five of seven games decided by six points or less. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in NFC North divisional games, 5-3 at home. Four of last five Packer games, five of last six Chicago games went over the total. No line posted yet as I type this; Rodgers' status will be determined later in week.

                            Texans (2-13) @ Titans (6-9)—If you own the Texans, you order the coach to lose this game to guarantee #1 pick in draft, right? Houston (-7.5) beat Titans 30-24 in OT in Week 2, were 2-0, haven’t won since; they outrushed Tennessee 172-119, outgained them by 204 yards, surviving a -2 turnover ratio, but now they’re a pathetic 2-12-1 vs spread, 1-5-1 on road, losing away games by 21-31-1-3-7-22 points. Coach got fired, QB got benched, then got his job back when backup got hurt. Texans won three of last four visits here; season series was split four of last five years. Titans are 2-3 vs spread this year in game following a win; they’re 3-2-1 when favored this year, 1-1-1 at home- they’ve lost last five home games after winning first two. Houston has two takeaways (-8) in its last six games; Titans have two (-8) in last four games. AFC South home teams are 4-5-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 when favored. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Titan games, 5-3 in last eight Texan tilts.

                            Browns (4-11) @ Steelers (7-8)—Pitt needs lot of help but is still alive/kicking for playoff spot; they’re 7-4 in last 11 games after 0-4 start, scoring 30-38 points last two weeks, stopping Packers on goal line in last minute last week- they scored TD on defense/special teams in four of last five games, and covered six of last seven, but were underdogs in five of six covers. Pitt is 4-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, winning at Heinz by 3-13-10-10 points. Cleveland is 0-6 (1-5 vs spread) since its Week 10 bye, losing last three road games by 21-1-11 points; they’re 3-4 as road underdogs, with only road win in Week 3 at Metrodome when Hoyer was QB. Browns lost last nine visits here, with eight of nine by 11+ points; they’re 3-24 in last 27 series games. Steelers were -11 in turnovers the first four weeks, are +7 since; they’ve scored 27+ points in five of last six games. AFC North home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games, 5-2 when favored. Six of last eight Cleveland games, last four Steeler games went over total.

                            Redskins (3-12) @ Giants (6-9)—Miserable season ends for Redskins, who lost last seven games, last two by single point each; they’re 1-4 as road underdogs this year, losing on road by 18-15-24-7-8-1 points, winning only 24-14 at Oakland (-3) in Week 4. Not only that, but Rams have their #1 pick in April. Giants are 6-3 in last nine games after 0-6 start; they’re 3-4 as favorites this year, 2-3 at home, with home wins by 16-4-14 points- four teams that beat them in Swamp are all still alive for playoffs. Skins’ two TDs last week were on short fields (33-43 yards); they’ve lost four of last five visits to Swamp, and lost 24-17 (+1) at home to Giants four weeks ago. Big Blue ran ball 35 times for 66 yards in last two games combined, scoring one TD on 26 drives, with 12 three/outs; only a pick-6 in last 5:00 last week got them to OT against generous Lions at Ford Field. NFC East home teams are 5-5 vs spread in divisional games, 4-4 if favored. Three of last four Giant games, four of last six Redskin games stayed under the total.

                            Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (10-5)—Baltimore needs this game to make playoffs, but Cincy is just third team ever (’52 Lions/’00 Rams) to score 40+ points in four straight home games in same year; they’re 7-0 SU/ATS at home, winning at home by average score of 34-17, beating Brady/Rodgers/Big Ben/Luck. Five of their seven home wins are by 10+ points. Bengals are this good despite having advantage in field position in only four of 15 games. Ravens had 4-game win streak snuffed out by Patriots last week; they’ve scored only one TD on 24 drives in last two games, as Flacco’s bum left knee, has made him immobile in pocket. Bengals (+1) lost 20-17 at Baltimore in Week 10, with 134 Cincy penalty yards offsetting 364-189 edge in total yardage; series has been swept five of last eight years. Ravens lost three of last four visits here, losing by 10-5-6 points; AFC North home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games, 5-2 if favored. Three of last four Raven games, four of last five Bengal games went over the total.

                            Jaguars (4-11) @ Colts (10-5)—Indy is playing in playoffs next week unless Patriots stumble against Buffalo and Colts get bye; Indy played very good defense last two weeks, allowing one TD on 24 drives with 12 three/outs in last two games- they hammered Jax 37-3 (-9) back in Week 4, with four sacks, three takeaways and a defensive TD, but Jags won last two visits here, 17-3/22-17 in season series that split in six of last 11 years. Jaguars are 4-3 in second half of season after 0-8 start; their last five games were all decided by 7 or less points. Jax covered its last four road games, won SU in last three, with only loss 35-19 at Denver (+27). Bradley has done good job keeping team playing hard, but they’ve also given up 190 rushing yards/game in last two weeks, a red flag. Colts are 5-2 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 4-6-6-8-22 points, with losses to Dolphins/Rams. AFC South home favorites are 4-5-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 if favored. Over is 8-3 in last eleven Jaguar games, 1-3 in last four Indy games.

                            Eagles (9-6) @ Cowboys (8-7)—Orton starts at QB for Dallas, with a 41-year old Algebra teacher (Kitna) backing him up, so spread swung 8 points with Romo expected to be sidelined with lumbar disk problem. Dallas allowed 21+ points in each of last eight games since pummeling Eagles 17-3 (+3) in Week 7, KO’ing Foles with concussion while outgaining Iggles 368-278 in game that was 3-0 Pokes at half. Philly won six of last seven games, crushing Bears 54-11 last week in meaningless game for them, huge game for Chicago; Eagles are 5-2 on road, 3-1 as road favorites; this is only their third game on carpet all year- they won 36-21 (+2.5) at Swamp in Week 5, then got pounded 48-30 at Metrodome (-6) two weeks ago. Dallas allowed 35 ppg over last three games; with LB Lee out, can they stand up vs Eagle running attack? Orton has NFL experience (35-34 record in 69 career starts) so Cowboys aren’t destitute here, but tough spot for Orton to step into. NFC East home teams are 5-5 vs spread in divisional games, 1-1 if home dogs. Seven of last eight Dallas games, last three Philly games went over total.

                            NY Jets (7-8) @ Dolphins (8-7)—Road team won six of last eight series games; Jets won five of last seven visits here, but lost 23-3 (-1.5) at home to Miami four weeks ago, outgained 453-177 with a -2 turnover ratio. Fish had 16-yard advantage in field position, held Jets to 2.4 ypa. Miami needs a win and help to make playoffs after laying egg in Buffalo last week; all seven of their home games decided by 4 or less points, with Fish 4-3 SU, 1-2 as home favorites. Bills said they had Taneyhill’s snap counts last week, leading to shutout win that ended Dolphins’ 3-game win streak. Jets turned ball over only three times in last three games; they’re +3 in turnovers in their seven wins, -20 in eight losses. Miami has one takeaway in six of its last seven games, with first Jet game (three TAs) the 7th game. This is only third game on grass this year for Jets; they lost 38-13 (+3.5) at Tennessee in Week 4, lost 30-20 (+10) at Carolina two weeks ago. AFC North home favorites are 4-4 against spread in divisional games. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Miami games, 3-6 in last nine Jet games.

                            Lions (7-8) @ Vikings (4-10-1)—Seems like long time ago, but Detroit (-5) beat Vikings 34-24 on Opening Day, passing for 352 yards with four takeaways (+2) that helped them to 15-yard advantage in field position, but roof fell in on both teams since, with Detroit -18 in turnovers over its last eight games. Lions lost five of last six weeks, with only win over Rodgers-less Packers on Thanksgiving; they’re 3-4 on road, with all seven games on natural grass. Detroit allowed only one offensive TD on 24 drives in last two games, but offense has been turning ball over so much, they’ve self-destructed, and now a coaching change looms. Lions are 1-14 in last 15 visits to Metrodome, which closes down after this game; four of their last five losses here were by 10+ points. Vikings got crushed in Cincinnati last week, after spanking Eagles here week before; they won last three home games, averaging 35 ppg. NFC North favorites are 7-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, 5-3-1 at home. 13 of 15 Viking games this season went over the total.

                            Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (11-4)—NE needs win to keep bye next week, which is huge; they snuck past Bills 23-21 (-9.5) in season opener, outgaining Bills by 145 yards, converting 11-20 on 3rd down, but scoring only two TDs on five red zone drives, with Bills scoring a long defensive TD to stay close. Patriots won 19 of last 20 series games including last 12 played here, but three of last four in Foxboro were decided by 8 or less points- they’re 4-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 3-20-3-10-24-3-1 point. Misleading score last week; Pats won 41-7, but scored two defensive TDs late and had only one TD drive of more than 53 yards. Buffalo won last two games, blanking Miami last week; they’re 1-5 as road underdogs this year, losing on road by 7-13-18-13-21 points, with wins at Miami/Jaguars. Bills ran ball for 198/203 yards in last two games and held six of last seven opponents under 5.0 yards/pass attempt, but this is it for them, while Pats sharpening up for postseason. Five of seven Buffalo road games, four of last five Patriot games went over total.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                            • Gridiron Angles - Week 17

                              December 28, 2013


                              NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

                              -- The Saints are 11-0-1 ATS (14.62 ppg) since October 23, 2011 as a home favorite when they won their last two home games.

                              NFL PLAYER TREND:

                              -- The Falcons are 9-0 ATS (10.50 ppg) since November 2, 2008 after a loss in which Roddy White had a receiving touchdown.

                              NFL BIBLE ATS TREND:

                              -- The Lions are 11-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) since October 25, 1992 as a road dog when their dps was negative in their last three games.

                              NFL BIBLE OU TREND:

                              -- The Eagles are 0-15 OU (-11.1 ppg) since December 25, 2006 when they scored at least 15 points more than expected last game.

                              NFL O/U OVER TREND:

                              -- The Cardinals are 14-0 OU (7.43 ppg) since December 05, 2004 as a dog with the total of at least 37 after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers.

                              NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

                              -- The Panthers are 0-11 OU (-7.86 ppg) since October 20, 1996 as a 7+ favorite when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games.

                              NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

                              -- Teams which game went under by at least 16 points last game and at least 18 two games ago are 36-21-3 OU. Active on Seattle.

                              PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

                              One of the key matchups in this week’s all-divisional card is the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Cincinnati Bengals. Baltimore needs to win just to have a chance at the postseason while Cincinnati can win to give itself a shot at the No. 2 seed, pending New England’s result vs. Buffalo. The current line on this game is Bengals -6 and O/U 44.5 and there is an Over/Under scenario “live” with a record of 17 overs, 35 unders and 4 pushes since 1989.

                              Cincinnati is avenging an overtime loss from earlier this season and coming off a Week 16 win by more than 10 points. The Bengals are expected to use a full complement of starters on both sides of the football and looking back since 2010 we can see that all three Week 17 matchups between these teams finished below 44 points. In what should be a solid defensive game, look for this contest to follow a familiar pattern and stay below the number.

                              Pick: Take the Ravens-Bengals UNDER 44.5 points
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • NFL
                                Armadillo's Write-Up

                                Week 17

                                All Remaining Games

                                Bucs (4-11) @ Saints (10-5)—New Orleans needs win to make playoffs; they’ve lost three of last four games but are 7-0 at home (6-0-1 ATS), with five of seven home wins by 18+ points. Saints (-3) nipped Bucs 16-14 in Week 2 at Tampa, game that was delayed early on by T-storms- NO scored nine points on four red zone drives, keeping Bucs in game when they completed only 9-22 passes. Tampa lost last four series games, losing 27-16/41-0 in last two visits here; they’re 4-3 in second half of year after 0-8 start, 2-4 as road dogs, losing away games by 1-20-8-3-21-10 points, with win at Detroit. Ryan’s defense has only three takeaways (-9) in its last eight games; shortest TD drive for Saints in last five games is 71 yards. Bucs ran ball 35 times for 98 yards in last two games, leading to field position deficits of 18/20 yards; over last seven games, they’re 20-86 on 3rd down. Home teams are 9-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games, 6-1 if favored. Last six Saint games, four of last five Buccaneer games stayed under the total.

                                Broncos (13-2) @ Raiders (4-11)— Pryor gets nod at QB for Oakland, but his agent claims they’re setting him up to fail, as chaos continues to reign in Bay Area. Denver needs to win if Patriots won at 1:00, to clinch home field thru AFC playoffs; Broncos won four of last five visits here, with all five games decided by 13+ points. Denver (-15) beat Oakland 37-21 in Week 3 despite -2 turnover ratio, running ball for 164 yards while piling up 31 first downs and 536 TY. Broncos are 5-2 on road, 4-3 as road favorites, winning away games by 18-3-8-7-24 points. Raiders lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 3-4 at home, but lost last three home games by 29-4-25 points. In their last four games, Broncos outscored opponents 83-31 in second half; in their last two games, 40 of their 44 first downs came on 1st/2nd down- they missed injured WR Welker (concussion) on 3rd down, converting only four of last 20 on that down. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC West games, 3-1 on road. Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Oakland games, 5-2 in Denver road games.

                                49ers (11-4) @ Cardinals (10-5)—Games in Seattle/New Orleans will affect tenor of this game; Cardinals need Bucs to upset Saints in Superdome for them to have playoff shot, while 49ers can win division if they win and Rams were to upset Seattle. Arizona is 3-0-1 as home favorite this year, with only loss in seven home games 34-22 on a Thursday night to Seattle. Cardinals won last four home games, scoring a defensive TD in each of last three. Niners won last five games, clinching playoff spot late Monday night with red zone stop vs Atlanta; 49ers are 5-2 on road, losing at Seattle/New Orleans. Redbirds (+11) turned ball over four times (-2) in 32-20 loss at Candlestick in Week 6; Niners had 16-yard edge in field position, in game where Cards outgained them 403-387, but 11 of 14 Redbird drives started 80+ yards from goal line. Series has been swept eight of last nine years; 49ers won three of last four visits here. NFL West home teams are 6-4 vs spread in divisional games this year. Six of last seven 49er games, three of last four Arizona games stayed under the total.

                                Chiefs (11-4) @ Chargers (8-7)—Spread is out of whack because KC is locked into #5 seed next week, while San Diego needs win/Cincinnati win to make playoffs, so by kickoff you’ll know whether Bolts have shot to make playoffs, but zero motivation for Chiefs to play anyone who is banged up. Chargers (+3.5) outscored Chiefs 31-24 in second half of 41-38 win at Arrowhead in Week 12, sixth straight series win for San Diego. KC lost last five visits to Qualcomm, with three losses by 18+ points. Chiefs were 9-0 at their bye, are 2-4 since, with -4 turnover ratio last week, after being +21 in first 14 games. KC scored 101 points in winning last two road games; they’re 6-1 on foreign soil, with only road loss 27-17 at Denver. Chargers scored 30 ppg in staying alive with three straight wins; they’re 4-3 at home, with Week 1 loss to 2-13 Texans (led 21-7 at half) now looming as a damaging blow. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC West divisional games, 4-2 at home. Four of last five Chief games went over total; five of last seven San Diego games stayed under.

                                Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (12-3)—Seattle needs win here or an Arizona win to clinch division, home field thru NFC playoffs. Seahawks lost two of last three games after 11-1 start; they’re 4-3 as home favorites, losing at home for first time last week- they’ve got four home wins by 21+ points. Rams had ball inside Seattle’s 10-yard line on last play but didn’t score in Week 9’s 14-9 Monday night home loss, first game Clemens started after Bradford’s knee injury; St Louis is 2-5 vs spread on road this year, 1-2 with Clemens starting- their road losses are by 7-24-15-10-20 points. Rams are +17 in turnovers in their seven wins, -7 in eight losses; without their franchise QB, need to create turnovers/special teams plays to win, and Austin hasn’t been playing, which hurts special teams. Seattle won 15 of last 17 series games, winning last eight played here, with six of eight by 10+ points. Last Ram win here was ’04 playoff game. Home favorites are 4-2 vs spread in NFC West divisional games. Last four games for both teams stayed under the total.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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